Author: Ely Allen

Just when it seemed like everything was finally working out for Colts veteran quarterback Daniel Jones, a torn Achilles tendon has thrown a wrench in things. It was only two years ago that the Giants signed Jones to a four-year, $160MM extension just to bench him by November the next season. Now heading to free agency with a long-term recovery in front of him, there are several possibilities for how Jones’ future could play out.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano laid out a few theories earlier this week. The first and most obvious option is that the Colts simply re-sign Jones, putting together another one- or two-year deal with some lucrative incentives, serving both parties. With how late in the year this injury has come, Jones is likely to still be rehabbing into the regular season next year. Indianapolis won’t know what to expect upon Jones’ eventual return, so they might not be willing to commit big money on a long-term deal, but they would guarantee a smaller amount in a shorter window, with a possibility for Jones to make a lot more if he can return with some amount of success.

This kind of deal would also benefit Jones, especially if he doesn’t quite like the value of the deals he ends up hearing in free agency. Some teams may lowball his value, giving him a long-term commitment while attempting to get a discount off of the injury and lock him in at a lower rate. The lower, shorter deal with incentives gives Jones a chance at hitting big money bonuses but also provides him the opportunity to renegotiate something better once he gets his sea legs back under him.

There are other options that see Jones leaving Indiana, especially considering that before the injury, he was expected to be one of the top passers on the open market. There are 30 quarterbacks set to hit free agency at the end of this season, and the only ones with talent comparable to what the 27-year-old Jones has displayed this year are Aaron Rodgers (41), Russell Wilson (36), Joe Flacco (40), and maybe Tyrod Taylor (34). Reestablishing himself as a capable starter had set Jones up for a potentially nice payday, but the injury may have altered that trajectory.

If he were to leave, Graziano’s first thought is that he could return to Minnesota. After getting cut by the Giants last year, Jones finished his season with the Vikings, backing up another resurgent veteran in Sam Darnold. Minnesota wanted to retain him but couldn’t guarantee him the starting job with first-round rookie J.J. McCarthy returning from injury. McCarthy has struggled in his first year as the Vikings’ starter, and introducing Jones back into the equation could spur his competitive instincts after he was essentially handed the job this year. It could also give McCarthy some time to sit and develop behind Jones, assuming losing the starting job doesn’t kill the 22-year-old’s confidence.

There are also plenty of options foreign to the three teams Jones has already played for. With projected cuts and contracts coming to an end after this season, the Cardinals, Falcons, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins, Saints, Jets, and Steelers are all expected to be looking at passers in the offseason. There’s also a chance Jones doesn’t even get that far in the process. Before the injury, there was a popular rumor that a franchise tag might keep him in Indianapolis. Checking in at a projected value of about $46MM, a franchise tag has become a bit less attractive of an option with the injury, but Jeremy Fowler of ESPN offered that it’s not completely off the table.

Fowler and Graziano also pointed out the possibility that, whatever the preference of Colts head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard, their opinions might not matter. New team owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has been seen all season taking diligent notes, and many speculated that Steichen and Ballard were on the hot seat coming into the season. An 8-2 start that saw the team atop the AFC seemed to indicate that their seats had cooled off a bit, but the staff has seen the team lose four of their last five, and without Jones, a seven-game losing streak is certainly on the table. It’s a long shot given the success the team saw when fully healthy, but there’s a chance decision makers could be changing in Indy before the quarterback does.

Ultimately, all we can do for now is speculate and keep a close eye on how things pan out over the next four weeks to close out the regular season. This injury has been a devastating setback for a resurgent Jones campaign, but the young passer still has plenty of road ahead of him. Much remains to be seen before we find out just where that road will lead.