One of several names set to dominate the QB storylines of the 2023 offseason is Tom Brady. The all-time great is a pending free agent who faces a number of possible options should he choose to continue his playing career.
One of those could be a move to Miami, something which has come close to taking place in the past. The Dolphins were involved in a tampering scandal in an unsuccessful attempt to land both he and head coach SeanPayton. That led to a number of punishments being handed down by the league, including the team forfeiting its first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Despite that, the Dolphins were said to be a potential suitor for him in 2023.
Momentum for a Brady-to-Miami contract does not appear to exist at this point, however. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that the Dolphins “are not expected to pursue” the 45-year-old in the event he hits the open market for the second time in his career. Brady helped the Buccaneers make the playoffs for the third straight year in his tenure there, but signs have pointed since their Wild-Card loss to him not returning to Tampa Bay.
While that certainly leaves the door open to a second retirement decision (one which the seven-time Super Bowl winner has said would be final, unlike his last one), it could also lead him elsewhere in free agency. The Raiders have quickly emerged as a logical landing spot for him, given the presence of Josh McDaniels and the team’s apparent desire to move on from Derek Carr. Earlier this month, it was reported that Vegas is doing their homework on Brady, amongst other QB options.
Miami has given Tua Tagovailoaa vote of confidence heading into the 2023 season, so it would come as little surprise if the team avoided making a big splash on the QB market. A veteran insurance policy is expected as a backup, given his concussion issues that arose this year, but the former top-five pick showed considerable improvement when healthy this season. Even if Miami is out of the running, Brady is likely to sill have multiple suitors in the coming weeks.
Bowles and Brady complained about the offense’s predictability, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud, who adds the team’s lack of commitment to the run game was one of the issues. Bowles believed teams had caught onto Leftwich’s offense, which tumbled off its elite perch of previous years, and Brady problems with the offense emerged back in December.
Tampa Bay finished 25th in scoring, and although it ranked 15th in total offense, a last-place ground attack dragged down the latter number. The Bucs ranked 32nd across the board on the ground, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and totaling just five rushing touchdowns. The Bucs went from 61 TDs in 2021 to 31 this season. Leonard Fournette‘s three-year, $21MM deal produced just 668 rushing yards (3.5 per tote) in 16 games. Much of these woes can be attributed to the changes to Tampa Bay’s interior offensive line, which lost all three of its previous starters — Ryan Jensen (injury), Ali Marpet (retirement), Alex Cappa (free agency) — to lead to lesser replacements creating problems for Brady and the run game. Brady showing signs of decline did not help matters for Leftwich, either.
But Leftwich and other Bruce Arians-hired staffers took the fall. Arians is not pleased with what happened last week, Stroud said during a WDAE Radio interview (via JoeBucsFan.com). The three-year Bucs HC, who gave the keys to Bowles in a surprising move last March, is “disappointed” and “hurt” his successor canned several of his staffers. Those assistants, some of whom having additional years on their contracts, had been told they would be there as long as Bowles was, per Stroud. Of course, NFL teams’ plans change rapidly. And an 8-9 season was not exactly where the Bucs thought they would be given their performances in 2020 and ’21. Bowles figures to enter the 2023 season on the hot seat. Arians spent the season as a senior advisor to Jason Licht, though he admitted late in the season he missed coaching.
As Bowles gathered his staff for a postmortem Thursday morning — prior to informing Leftwich and Co. they were being fired — he mentioned the team would have a difficult time signing free agents, per Stroud. The Bucs are nearly in Saints territory in terms of cap space, ranking ahead of only their restructure-happy rivals around the league. As of Wednesday, Tampa Bay sits $54MM-plus over the projected 2023 cap. The Bucs have been active in free agency over the past two years, mostly via re-signings. But the team had brought back a number of its top free agents — from Jensen to Carlton Davis in 2022 to Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David and Rob Gronkowski in 2021 — during Brady’s stay.
Following that meeting, Bowles called select assistants into his office to inform them of the dismissals. Despite the persistent run-game struggles, Bowles kept Arians hires Harold Goodwin (run-game coordinator) and Joe Gilbert (O-line coach). The team had discussions with Bill O’Brienas a Leftwich contingency plan last year, in the event the latter landed the Jacksonville HC job. O’Brien was Brady’s OC (or de facto OC, as the Patriots sometimes do not do coordinator titles) for three seasons, but he is now back with the Pats.
The Bucs have begun their OC search, with a few candidates surfacing Tuesday. While Leftwich’s ouster may influence Brady in free agency, the early word coming out of Tampa is the 45-year-old superstar will explore other options if he is to play a 24th season.
It remains to be seen where (or if) Tom Brady will play in 2023. However, several Buccaneers players believe the quarterback definitely won’t be back in Tampa Bay. Speaking to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Bucs players said their “final interactions” with Brady this season led them to believe that the signal-caller won’t be back in Tampa next year.
One player told Rapoport that he’d be “surprised if [Brady’s] back,” while another said the QB “sounded like a person saying goodbye for good.” Brady also seemed to bid farewell to the media during his final press conference, another indication that he’d likely be heading elsewhere.
Sources tell Rapoport that Brady is going “to head into his few weeks of decision-making time with an open mind.” The future Hall of Famer will spend time with family while he considers all of his options. While re-signing with Tampa Bay has to be included on the list of options, it’s sounding increasingly more likely that Brady will either sign elsewhere or hang up his cleats (at which time he has a lucrative deal with Fox Sports waiting for him).
Brady went as far as to announce his retirement last offseason before reversing course and returning for another campaign. Some thought Brady’s initial retirement was an attempt to force his way out of Tampa Bay, but whether it was a change of heart of the Buccaneers’ unwillingness to budge, the QB ended up returning for a third season with the organization. It was a tough year for the Buccaneers offense, leading to offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich‘s ouster following the team’s opening-round playoff loss.
A number of teams have been mentioned as potential landing spots for Brady. The Dolphins could make another run at the QB after the organization was punished for their previous pursuit. Brady could look to reunite with former OC JoshMcDaniels in Las Vegas or with former teammate Mike Vrabel in Tennessee, and rumors of a move back home to San Francisco will continue to persist.
Tom Brady-to-Miami is back on the table. A source “with general knowledge of the various dynamics regarding all things Brady” told Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com that a move to the Dolphins is “definitely on the table.”
This obviously isn’t the first time that Brady has been connected to the organization. Miami’s previous pursuit of the quarterback led to a tampering scandal that resulted in significant penalties for the organization and their owner, Stephen Ross. Either way, the Dolphins clearly had Brady’s ear as they looked to team the future Hall of Famer with head coach Sean Payton. Thanks in part to Brian Flores’ discrimination lawsuit against the Dolphins, that plan was scrapped, and following a brief retirement, Brady ended back in Tampa Bay.
The 45-year-old will hit free agency this offseason, providing no barriers to him joining the Dolphins. As opposed to his last trip to free agency, Brady should have more than a couple of teams competing for his services. It remains to be seen if Brady would still be interested in moving to Miami, but among the hypothetical suitors, they’d make sense from a roster standpoint.
Another major part of this story revolves around current Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If the Dolphins do land Brady, Florio said it’s uncertain if the Dolphins would move on from Tua or if they’d keep him as a backup. If the organization can find another team that would “assume the concussion risks,” then the incumbent QB would be a natural trade candidate. His $4.7MM financial commitment in 2023 certainly isn’t a concern for the Dolphins or any trade suitors, so either route wouldn’t be overly surprising.
Brady’s third season in Tampa Bay saw him complete 66.8 percent of his passes for 4,694 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Despite an 8-9 record, the Buccaneers qualified for the postseason. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, guided the Dolphins to an 8-5 record in 13 starts, tossing a career-high 25 touchdowns vs. only eight interceptions. He won’t start their Wild Card matchup against the Bills as he continues to sit in concussion protocol.
Tom Brady still has at least one more game to play for the Buccaneers, but that hasn’t stopped pundits (and, potentially, other NFL teams) from considering where he could play next season. During an appearance on the Dan Patrick Show (Twitter link), Albert Breer of TheMMQB said the Raiders are “unequivocally” looking into the possibility of adding the future Hall of Famer.
The Brady/Raiders comment was preceded by a question about Jimmy Garoppolo, with Breer noting that the Raiders are also doing their due diligince on the 49ers QB. In fact, Breer believes Derek Carr was thrown into a de facto competition with the two impending free agents, with Josh McDaniels, Dave Ziegler, and co. ultimately deciding they could squeeze more out of the quarterback position from someone else.
As Breer explains, when the current regime initially signed Carr to an extension, they thought they were locking in their equivalent of Alex Smith in Kansas City. In other words, the Raiders thought their veteran QB would be able to guide them to postseason performances while the front office identified their play-caller of the future. At 31, Jimmy G could allow the Raiders to continue with that plan, while Brady would obviously force the organization to go in a completely different direction as they load up for temporary contention.
With McDaniels and Ziegler having both worked alongside Brady and Garoppolo in New England, the connections are obvious, and it really wouldn’t be surprising if one of these QBs reunites with their former coach in Las Vegas. At the moment, the big question is which of these two quarterbacks is atop the Raiders’ wish list.
Elsewhere in Raiders QB news, the organization is set to meet with Carr soon. As Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal explains, the QB and the Raiders agreed to meet after the season to “discuss the situation and all the various options.”
After all, the future Hall-of-Famer continues to enjoy a strong relationship with team ownership and with GM Jason Licht, and the team has proven throughout Brady’s tenure that it will do whatever it takes to build a contender around him, even if its maneuvers create future salary cap headaches. Plus, the fact that the Bucs clinched the NFC South and qualified for the postseason could encourage Brady to return (although the weakness of the division obviously played a major role in the team’s playoff berth).
Stroud does note that Brady’s preference would be to play for Sean Payton, the former Saints head coach who is presently working as a FOX analyst but who appears ready to return to the sidelines in 2023. At present, only the Broncos have obtained permission to interview Payton, and Denver would be unable to add Brady due to its commitment to Russell Wilson. Of course, Payton and Brady appeared ready to join forces on the Dolphins in 2022, though it is now unclear whether Miami would be willing to make current HC Mike McDaniel a one-and-done just to facilitate a brief Brady-Payton partnership.
Payton could elect to return to the Saints, and New Orleans boasts enough offensive talent to entice Brady to join him there. However, as Stroud notes in a separate piece, joining the Bucs’ division rival would be difficult for Tampa Bay ownership to stomach, and Brady may not want to “stick it” to the Glazers in that way.
Brady will likely have suitors that are interested in only him and not in Payton. The 49ers, Raiders, and Jets could all be in play, and none of those teams appear as if they will be parting with their current head coaches (plus, if Brady elects to sign with Las Vegas, he would be reuniting with longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, which could appeal to him). The upshot here is that all options, including a new deal with the Bucs, remain on the table.
On a related note, it seems that a Brady return to Tampa would lead to a dismissal of OC Byron Leftwich, especially in light of the reported friction between the two men. If that happens, then Stroud expects current Alabama offensive coordinator and former Texans head coach Bill O’Brien — who was on the Patriots’ staff for five of Brady’s years in Foxborough — to be in the mix as a possible replacement. Indeed, O’Brien and Licht have a close relationship, and the Bucs were interested in O’Brien’s services last year, when it appeared as if Leftwich would leave Tampa to become the Jaguars’ head coach.
The Raiders will startJarrett Stidhamtoday in what will be his first NFL regular season start and the unofficial beginning of the post-Derek Carrera at quarterback. Vegas made headlines this week when they benched the latter for the remainder of the season.
That has led to the widespread expectation that Carr will be traded during the coming offseason. The 31-year-old has stepped away from the team as they begin the transition away from him, and, presumably, the process of finding a suitable destination to send him in the near future. Carr has a no-trade clause, so the possibility remains that a release allowing him to become a free agent will be the ultimate outcome of this situation.
On that point, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network confirms that Vegas is “expected to explore trade options” for the three-time Pro Bowler. That comes as little surprise, given the organization’s commitment to replacing him – one which was reportedly driven by owner Mark Davis – along with the market which could materialize for a signal-caller of his experience and with his contract situation. Carr’s three-year extension signed last spring will see his $41.9MM 2023 salary become guaranteed on February 15, creating the narrow window in which a deal is expected to officially take place.
However, Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal tweets that both Carr and the Raiders could agree to push back that deadline as a means of making the trade process smoother. Much is still to be determined between now and the onset of the offseason, in any event, which also raises the possibility that the two sides could decide against a separation. The 49ers granting Jimmy Garoppolopermission to seek a trade, then later retaining him, represents a recent example of such a development.
The fact that Carr previously made public his intention of only ever playing for the Raiders is not expected to be a factor in this case, Rapoport notes. The former second-rounder has no intention of retiring at the end of the year, and is reportedly of the belief that “he has his best football ahead of him.” While his 2022 performance – along with that of the Raiders as a whole – strongly suggests otherwise, Carr will nevertheless likely be a key player in the coming offseason QB market.
His expected departure will also, of course, leave Vegas in need of at least a short-term Carr replacement. Among the bridge candidates are Garoppolo, but also Tom Brady. The latter has guided the Buccaneers to another NFC South title, but is not expected to return to Tampa this spring. That – coupled with the recent Carr developments – has led to many speculating that Brady could reunite with Josh McDaniels by joining the Raiders, as he came close to doing in 2020. As the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin writes, a Brady-to-Vegas contract could also accompany another un-retirement from tight end Rob Gronkowski (something which nearly took place in time for this season).
Stidham will use the final two contests of the campaign, one in which the Raiders are all-but eliminated from playoff contention, to audition for playing time in 2023, but regardless of his performances, Vegas will be a team to watch as the QB landscape takes shape in the coming months.
BruceArians moved from the sideline to the front office this past offseason, with the 70-year-old now serving as the Buccaneers’ senior advisor to general manager JasonLicht. While Arians sounds appreciative of his current gig, he recently made it clear that he’d jump at the opportunity to return to coaching.
“Would I love to be coaching? Yeah,”Arians told Rick Stroud of TampaBay.com. “It’s what you do. It kills me to go upstairs. I’m on the sideline in pregame and it kills me to have to go upstairs and just sit there. It kills me. It’s hard. It’s what I do. I’ve done it my whole life. I’m smart enough to know it’s over.
“It’s not the same. That daily interaction with the players and the coaches, the relationship I’m in. I sat and talked to Mike (Evans) and Vita (Vea) for an hour. The new guys are told, ‘That’s the old coach. You don’t want him cussing you out.’ I just (cussed out) a couple of them for the hell of it.”
Arians’ tenure in Tampa Bay spanned three years, including a 31-18 record and the franchise’s second Super Bowl title. He seemed prepared for a fourth season at the helm but plans changed with the uncertainty surrounding Tom Brady‘s future. Working under the impression that his franchise QB was going to hang up his cleats, Arians weighed the possibility of an unproven QB room against his desire to see defensive coordinator Todd Bowles succeed him.
By ultimately stepping aside, Arians allowed the organization to retain both Bowles and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, with the now-former head coach continually asserting that he wanted to set up the Buccaneers organization with a solid succession plan. Still, despite Arians willingly giving up his gig, it sounds like he would have stuck around had he had more clarity on Tampa Bay’s outlook for the 2022-23 season.
December 30th, 2022 at 10:56pm CST by Sam Robinson
The Raiders’ Derek Carr decision has become this week’s top NFL storyline, and it sets up an interesting trade market for a player who has been loosely involved in trade rumors for years. It may not have been Josh McDaniels‘ decision to move in this direction. At least, not right now.
McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler met Monday and Tuesday nights discussing their quarterback plan, and while a benching was mentioned as a possibility, Vic Tafur of The Athletic views it as likely McDaniels and Ziegler were planning to keep Carr as the team’s starter to close out the season. Mark Davis looks to have played a role in the decision that led to Jarrett Stidhambeing announced the starter and Carr leaving the team for the time being, Tafur adds (subscription required).
Carr has played for four six Raiders HCs, counting interims Tony Sparano and Rich Bisaccia, over his nine-year career. The GM that drafted Carr, Reggie McKenzie, extended him at $25MM per year during the 2017 offseason. While the Jon Gruden period brought steady trade rumors, the Raiders hung onto their starter. Carr became the longest-tenured starting QB in Raiders history and now owns the team’s all-time passing records — by a substantial margin.
McDaniels and Ziegler extended him this year, albeit with the much-discussed February escape hatch, but interviews with the ex-Patriots duo and other GMs this offseason curiously did not feature the Raider interviewers discussing Carr in a positive light. Coaching and GM candidates were surprised to hear Raiders officials’ Carr assessments during the job interviews, according to Tafur, who adds Davis has been lukewarm on the starter for a long time. Davis and former Raiders VP of player personnel Ken Herockled the coach-GM search this year, and the owner ended up letting McDaniels and Ziegler make the call on Carr.
The new Raiders power brokers settled on the half-measure extension — a three-year, $121.4MM deal that includes the out three days after Super Bowl LVII — and it looks like the parties will aim to capitalize on the narrow trade window. They will explore doing so despite Davante Adamsseeking a trade to Las Vegas to reunite with Carr. If Carr goes, it will be interesting to see how Adams’ Vegas future unfolds.
The Raiders taking the opportunity to make the $40.4MM bonus — Carr’s full 2023 base salary and $7.5MM of his 2024 base pay — another team’s responsibility would cost them barely $5MM in dead money. That is quite the low sum associated with dealing a quality starter less than a year after the extension ink dried, but Carr agreed to the terms and landed a no-trade clause. That will protect the three-time Pro Bowler, who should have options once trade talks commence.
Davis was in place as the team’s owner when McKenzie drafted Carr 36th overall in 2014, and after several post-Rich Gannon misfires by the organization, Carr offered stability — albeit without giving his team a top-tier option under center — and durability. He has only missed two career regular-season games, but it looks like the owner is ready to move on. Carr’s inability to lead a game-tying drive against the Bengals in the wild-card round last season gnawed at Davis, per Tafur, despite the quarterback piloting four straight wins to help Bisaccia become the rare interim coach to lead his team to the playoffs. Bisaccia received consideration for the full-time gig, but Davis passed, leading the longtime special teams coach to Green Bay.
Carr remains a Raider partially because Gruden backed out of the Tom Bradypursuit two years ago, leading to some colorful Brady language re: Carr. Gruden viewed Brady as too old at that point, Tafur adds. Brady was preparing for his age-43 season at that point, and although the Raiders joined other teams in being connected to the legendary signal-caller, he ended up deciding between the Buccaneers and the Chargers. It is not certain the Raiders would have beaten out the Bucs for Brady’s services, but with McDaniels now running the show, look for Brady — ahead of an age-46 season he is not a lock to pursue — to be connected to the Raiders again.
One of this season’s most disappointing teams, the Buccaneers still have a chance to host a playoff game. But their Tom Brady partnership may be nearing an end. The all-time great is viewed as more likely than not to be elsewhere in 2023.
This would open the door to either an unusual free agency or a second retirement. Winding down his age-45 season, Brady will likely not be sought after on the level he was in 2020. His career-low QBR (since the stat’s 2006 introduction, at least), lowest yards per attempt figure since 2002 (6.3) and age will undoubtedly give teams pause. But if the 15-time Pro Bowler wants to keep pushing the quarterback age boundary — a recently discussed scenario — there stands to be a market.
It still makes sense to include the 49ers here. They passed on a true pursuit in 2020, when Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off a season in which he piloted the team to Super Bowl LIV, but Brady was loosely linked to seeking a move to his native Bay Area during his mini-retirement this offseason. The Bucs shut down the prospect of trading Brady’s rights anywhere. San Francisco has an again-injured Garoppolo tied to a restructured deal that prevents a franchise tag — a similar arrangement to Brady, who also cannot be tagged thanks to his 2022 restructure — and Trey Lance will enter 2023 having only played one full season in his five post-high school years. The 49ers boast a rare skill-position trio that includes three All-Pros, and their situation could open the door to Lance spending a year learning behind arguably the greatest to ever do it.
Josh McDaniels looks like he will make it to a second Raiders season, even though his first has not gone as hoped. McDaniels taking over as Patriots OC led to Brady morphing from a promising young quarterback to a superstar, and he was Brady’s OC for 11 years. The Raiders have a narrow window to tradeDerek Carr, who will see $40.5MM guaranteed on Day 3 of the 2023 league year. A Carr-Davante Adams breakup might not go over well among the longtime friends, but McDaniels and fellow ex-Patriots staffer Dave Ziegler are calling the shots. The Raiders pursued Brady in 2020, and he famously had a spirited reaction to the then-Jon Gruden-led team backing off.
Tua Tagovailoa has a rather vocal cast of supporters, and the Dolphins did just pay a stiff penalty for attempting to bring Brady and Sean Payton to town. Payton seems out of the question now, with Mike McDaniel faring well in his first year, and Tagovailoa still sits second in QBR. The Dolphins have one of the great speed-receiver duos in NFL history, and vice chairman Bruce Beal is on the TB12 board. Though, Beal’s central role in the tampering scandal is believed to have affected his standing with the team. Would Stephen Ross try to land one of the assets that ultimately cost a first-round pick?
While it would look quite strange to see Brady with the Jets, they have both young weaponry and a vastly improved defense. That combination wooed Brady to Tampa. Timeline-wise, the Jets mirror the 49ers at the QB position. They roster the passer taken one spot ahead of Lance (Zach Wilson), though the Jets have more intel on their top-three QB pick than the Niners do theirs. Mike White is a free agent at season’s end, and the team is already being connected to veteran options — Garoppolo and Carr among them. Brady probably should be at least mentioned here.
Brady and Mike Vrabel played together for nine seasons, and the Titans were part of the free agency derby two years ago. They bowed out before it ultimately came down to a Bucs-or-Chargers call, and Ryan Tannehill has one season remaining on the extension the Titans gave him shortly after their Brady pursuit ended. The Titans cannot match the above-referenced teams for weaponry, however.
Bill Belichick did not exactly equip Mac Jones for a second-year leap, naming a career defensive coach (Matt Patricia) as de facto OC. Jones has regressed in Year 2, and there was a brief QB controversy with fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe. Uncertainty about the 2021 first-rounder’s long-term standing has entered the equation. If LeBron James could return to Cleveland, Brady rejoining Belichick and Robert Kraft for a farewell season should at least be floated. Brady and Kraft remain close, as evidenced by the Bucs QB traveling to the Patriots owner’s wedding during a Bucs road trip earlier this season. But the Patriots would need to get to work on receiving help. They almost certainly would not be the favorites if Brady decided to play a 24th season.
Reports of friction between Brady and Bruce Arians and Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have emerged over the past two seasons. Arians’ exit has undoubtedly affected this Bucs iteration, which has dealt with issues along its offensive line throughout the year as well. But the Bucs have fallen from the second-ranked scoring offense in 2021 — a season in which Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yards and 43 TDs — to 28th. The Bucs’ chances at winning a terrible NFC South aside, they may soon face the prospect of the Brady bill coming due. The Bucs not re-signing Brady before his contract expires in March would mean a $35.1MM dead-money hit due to the void years on his deal.
Brady is the only 45-year-old starting QB in NFL history, and retirement was believed to be the direction he would go at this season’s outset. As he plays out a down season, there will be more calls for a true retirement this time. A 10-year deal to be FOX’s lead analyst awaits.
As this offseason showed, teams are more willing to follow through with big QB swings. Complex QB offseasons have been the 2020s norm. More teams could potentially enter the mix, if they are convinced Brady’s struggles this year can be attributed more to his circumstances and less on a decline. Unless Brady calls it quits immediately after this season, the topic of his 2023 employer will gain steam. How will it end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this oft-discussed player in the comments section.
