Giants Want To Re-Sign Dalvin Tomlinson; Latest On Leonard Williams
This won’t come as a big shock, but the Giants want to re-sign defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, as Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv writes. New York, however, has virtually no cap room at the moment, so GM Dave Gettleman will have his work cut out for him in trying to bring back Tomlinson and fellow D-lineman Leonard Williams.
It won’t be overly difficult to clear between $20MM-$30MM of cap space with a few obvious releases and restructures, but it’s not as though Tomlinson and Williams are Big Blue’s only priorities. The team still has major holes at wide receiver, O-line, and cornerback, so it remains to be seen if Gettleman will be able to keep his defensive front intact.
Tomlinson, Pro Football Focus’ 25th-best interior defender out of 126 qualified players in 2020, could pull down a multi-year pact worth $8MM-$10MM per season. But Vacchiano suggests that he might also be one of those players whose earning power will be weakened as a result of the reduced salary cap, so the 2017 second-rounder may opt for a one-year pact with an eye towards a return trip to free agency in 2022, when the cap may increase dramatically.
Of course, a one-year deal means that the Giants would not be able to spread out any of Tomlinson’s cap charges. So while Vacchiano believes that such an arrangement could represent New York’s best chance to bring Tomlinson back, that might only be true if his market does not bear much fruit.
Williams, meanwhile, is still shooting for the $20MM/year contract he has been seeking for some time, and given his 2020 breakout, there’s a good chance he’ll get it. He was finally able to start converting QB hits into sacks last season, finishing the year with 11.5 sacks and grading out as PFF’s 15th-best interior defender. His abilities to get to the quarterback and to stop the run make him a complete player, and even though there is some concern that he could regress to the level of solid-but-not-great play he displayed with the Jets, he is not likely to get anything less than an $18MM AAV with up to $60MM in guarantees.
Vacchiano confirms a report from last March that the Giants were unwilling to offer a long-term deal to Williams that averaged his 2020 franchise tag value of $16.1MM. At the time, that made perfect sense from New York’s perspective, but Williams was unwilling to go that low, so he chose to bet on himself (and won). This year, a franchise or transition tag for either Williams or Tomlinson would seem to be cost-prohibitive, though Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network (video link) says the $19.3MM franchise tag for Williams should not be ruled out (which makes sense if Williams is looking at a $20MM/year long-term deal).
Paul Schwartz of the New York Post unsurprisingly says Williams must be retained, but like Vacchiano, he concedes that keeping Tomlinson could be a little tougher. And assuming Williams is brought back, the club will certainly not be able to be as active in free agency as it was last year, even though the Giants do not have any other free agents of their own that qualify as major priorities. As such, New York may need to make savvy, under-the-radar signings to boost its O-line, especially at right tackle. Last year’s 16-game RT starter, Cameron Fleming, will not be re-signed as a starter, Schwartz writes.
WFT Didn’t Want Alex Smith To Return?
Where (and if) Alex Smith will play in 2021 remains an open question. If the 36-year-old QB returns to the Washington Football Team, he will need to do so on a reworked contract. WFT could also release him, thereby clearing nearly $15MM off its books, but the team would need to find a suitable replacement first.
Smith’s return from a horrific injury suffered in November 2018 was one of the best stories of last season, and though he didn’t light the world on fire, Washington did go 5-1 in games that he started. The club finagled a division title thanks to their strong finish with Smith at the helm, and there was no reason to believe that there might be bad blood between WFT and the veteran signal-caller.
But in a recent interview with Clay Skipper of GQ, Smith said the team initially did not want him back. “When I decided to come back, I definitely threw a wrench in the team’s plan,” Smith said. “They didn’t see it, didn’t want me there, didn’t want me to be a part of it, didn’t want me to be on the team, the roster, didn’t want to give me a chance.”
He did not mention anyone by name, but he said the “new regime” — led by head coach Ron Rivera, who was hired last January — viewed him as a liability. He continued, “[T]hey tried to put me on PUP for two weeks, then they tried to IR me. I felt like I still hadn’t had my fair shake at that point. I wanted to see if I could play quarterback and play football, and I feel like I hadn’t been given that opportunity yet to find that out.”
Ultimately, Smith said he and the team “worked through all that stuff,” but one wonders why WFT was opposed to having him return. After all, his 2020 salary of $16MM was fully guaranteed, so it wouldn’t have made any sense to release him, and his career accomplishments dwarf those of Dwayne Haskins — a player the new regime was also unhappy to inherit — and Rivera import Kyle Allen. Rivera’s presence added immediate legitimacy to an organization that badly needed it in the wake of the Bruce Allen years, but Smith’s comments recall the type of dysfunction that has long plagued Dan Snyder‘s outfit.
We recently heard that Smith was unlikely to retire, and while he reiterated in the GQ interview that he has a lot of football left in him, he still needs to “have a very real conversation” with his wife about the matter. So at this point, it seems that retirement remains on the table.
Dolphins Lose $8MM In Cap Space
Although the Dolphins have not signed a single player to a standard 2021 contract this month, the club has still lost about $8MM in cap space, as Barry Jackson and Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald report. That’s because a few players hit incentives in their contracts that increased their 2021 cap charges.
For instance, WR DeVante Parker‘s 2021 cap number increased from $11MM to $12MM, while safety Eric Rowe‘s number grew from $5.05MM to $6.05MM. As such, Miami now has $25.4MM of cap space, assuming the cap floor of $180MM does not increase.
That’s not an insignificant amount of wiggle room, but the Dolphins do have a number of high-value draft picks, including the Nos. 3 and 18 overall selections and two second-round choices. If they keep all of those picks, Miami would need to allocate about $11.9MM for its draft class, per Jackson and Beasley. That doesn’t leave a ton of space for the team to conduct the rest of its offseason business.
After all, the ‘Fins will need to sign a wide receiver, a backup QB, and several linebackers, and they will also need to re-sign C Ted Karras or acquire a new center (though Jackson and Beasley say the club is high on Wisconsin-Whitewater OL Quinn Meinerz, Miami is not going to deploy a D-III rookie as its starting pivot).
The Dolphins do have plenty of options to create additional room, including cutting safety Bobby McCain or restructuring the contract of linebacker Kyle Van Noy. And the situation would be completely altered if the club were to trade for Texans QB Deshaun Watson, which appears to be a legitimate possibility.
Eagles To Consider Drafting QB In First Round
After the Eagles traded Carson Wentz earlier this week, we heard that the team was not expected to turn the reins over to Jalen Hurts without having him earn the job. Zach Berman of The Athletic confirms that Philadelphia is likely to sign a free agent passer, and Tim McManus of ESPN.com says he expects the team to seriously consider drafting a QB with the No. 6 overall pick.
According to McManus, there were mixed opinions of Hurts within the organization in the runup to last year’s draft. While owner Jeffrey Lurie and GM Howie Roseman were among his advocates, the club did not necessarily select Hurts with the idea that he would become the team’s long-term answer at quarterback. Rather, the Eagles invest a great deal of draft and financial capital into the quarterback position as a matter of course, and Hurts simply represented a good value when Philly was on the clock in the second round of the 2020 draft.
In his four-game audition last year, Hurts certainly did enough to suggest that he can, in fact, be a franchise quarterback, but there were some concerns as well. For instance, his 52% completion percentage was lowest among all QBs that attempted at least 100 passes, and he ranked 27th among 41 quarterbacks with at least 150 passing plays in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, according to TruMedia. Obviously, the limited sample size makes it impossible to draw any definitive conclusions about Hurts’ future, but by the same token, the Eagles — who usually aren’t picking as high as they are this year — would be remiss if they did not take a hard look at the top collegiate passers in the 2021 draft.
Trevor Lawrence will be selected by the Jaguars with the No. 1 overall pick, but after that, it’s impossible to predict how the quarterback dominos will fall. The Eagles might have a shot at one of BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, but all three players could be off the board by the time the sixth pick rolls around. As such, Philadelphia might need to orchestrate a trade-up if they want one of those passers, and given that the club is already in salary cap hell, draft assets are especially valuable this year.
On the other hand, it’s not every day that you get a chance to select a premier collegiate quarterback, so if Roseman & Co. feel strongly enough about a player like Wilson, Fields, or Lance, they might have to bite the bullet. The Eagles’ salary cap picture should look much rosier in 2022, and at that point, they could have two promising young QBs playing under rookie contracts, which would be an enviable scenario.
As for the free agent quarterbacks that could be brought in, Berman names Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, and Andy Dalton as potential targets. There are no concrete reports linking those players to Philadelphia at this point, but even if the Eagles draft a quarterback, they still might offer the clearest path to playing time for a passer in that free agent tier.
If the Eagles do not elect to draft a QB with the No. 6 selection, Eliot Shorr-Parks of 94 WIP sees the team picking an offensive or defensive lineman (Twitter link).
Browns Likely To Sign Pass Rusher In Free Agency
The Browns remain in the mix to sign veteran defensive end J.J. Watt, as Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com writes. We heard earlier this week that Cleveland is a legitimate suitor for Watt, and the former Texans star remains intrigued by what the Browns have to offer.
Watt has earned over $100MM from his playing career alone, and he has made it clear that he wants to sign with a team that has a strong quarterback and a legitimate chance of winning a title. However, Cabot says Watt also wants to get paid, and the Browns have just under $30MM in cap room at the moment thanks to a league-leading $30.4MM in rollover space. So from a financial perspective, Cleveland is better positioned than any other club in the Watt sweepstakes.
In addition to the financial and competitiveness considerations, Watt also wants to go to a team that already boasts a talented defensive front. That is perhaps because he was double-teamed more than any other player in 2020, which certainly contributed to his modest five-sack total. Despite that, he graded out as the seventh-best edge player in the league per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics, and with Myles Garrett wreaking havoc and attracting his own double-teams on the opposite side of the line, Watt would have a real chance to put up some of the gaudy raw stats that he enjoyed earlier in his career.
But the Watt race is far from over, and even if the Browns are unable to land him, Cabot says that the club is expected to make a major addition to its pass rushing contingent in free agency. They could draft a pass rusher as well, but Cabot expects the Browns to have serious interest in all of the QB hunters who might hit the open market.
That includes Von Miller, who may be released by the Broncos. Miller is not going to be back in Denver at his current base salary of $17.5MM, and if he and the Broncos cannot agree to a reworked deal, he could be on his way out. One of the most prolific pass rushers of the past decade, Miller is four days younger than Watt, and though he missed the entire 2020 campaign due to an ankle injury, he has generally been more durable than his fellow 2011 first-rounder. Spotrac currently pegs Miller as a $10MM/year player, and if the Browns can get him on a contract with a $10MM AAV, they might jump at the chance.
Xavien Howard Appears In Police Report Concerning Shooting At Former Agent’s Home
Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard appears in an official incident report concerning a shooting at the home of his former agent, Damarius Bilbo, which happened in June 2020. Howard’s name is misspelled in the report, but it is clear that he is the person being referenced (though his name appears without explanation or context).
Pro Football Talk first obtained the report from Dunwoody (GA) authorities several days ago. In it, we learn that on June 29, someone fired a bullet into Bilbo’s home. Bilbo was not home at the time, but his wife and 12-year-old son were. The son told police that he saw a gold sedan pull up to the front of the house, that he saw a black male wearing a hoodie exit the vehicle and walk onto the lawn, and that the person jumped back into the vehicle after a shot was fired through a window.
Luckily, no one was injured, and the investigation is ongoing. Howard’s name appears on the “Additional Name List” on the second page of the report, but as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets, Howard is not suspected of firing the gun. Jackson adds in a full-length piece that Howard is also not believed to have been in the vehicle. However, police have requested interviews on several occasions, which Howard declined.
Howard declined the first interview request back in August, saying that he was dealing with COVID-19. The most recent request was made within the last few weeks.
Howard’s attorney, Darren Heitner, said, “Xavien was not involved in this incident and there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.” At this point, that certainly seems accurate, as Howard’s only connection to the incident appears to be his former business relationship with Bilbo and his association to other individuals who were listed as “Additional Names.” Both the Pro Football Talk report and the Jackson article provide further info if you want to dive deeper.
Bilbo represented Howard until the two had a business dispute in October, but it was Bilbo who negotiated Howard’s five-year, $75.3MM extension in 2019, which made Howard the highest-paid CB in the league at the time. Howard just turned in the finest season of his career and was in the running for Defensive Player of the Year honors, and as such, he is seeking a renegotiation of his contract (even though he is under club control through 2024). Jackson wonders if the Dolphins will use this incident as a reason to reject such a renegotiation, but recent reports have indicated that Howard will ask for a trade if he does not get a raise.
As Jackson writes, it’s unclear if the NFL will investigate this matter. For now, the Dolphins, Bilbo, and Dunwoody police have declined to comment.
Packers Likely To Restructure Aaron Rodgers’ Contract
The Packers cleared over $10MM of cap space by releasing Christian Kirksey and Rick Wagner several days ago. However, Green Bay is still about $13MM above the cap floor of $180MM, so there is plenty of work to do before the 2021 league year officially begins on March 17.
According to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, the Packers will almost certainly restructure quarterback Aaron Rodgers‘ contract in an effort to create additional cap room. The 37-year-old signal-caller is due a $14.7MM base salary in 2021, along with a $6.8MM roster bonus that will come due in March. Green Bay could convert some of that base salary into a signing bonus, a common maneuver that the club already executed with left tackle David Bakhtiari.
Of course, Rodgers said shortly after the Packers’ NFC Championship Game defeat in January that his future with the Packers was “uncertain,” which naturally led to plenty of speculation. Some reports suggested that his comments were an effort to secure a new contract that would represent a strong commitment from the franchise, whose selection of Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft clearly irked Rodgers. And another report indicated that the comments — which Rodgers later tried to downplay — were not contractually-motivated and that player and team were headed for a bitter divorce.
Meanwhile, Packers brass has insisted that Rodgers is not going anywhere, and Demovsky says the club certainly could undertake a more comprehensive restructuring of Rodgers’ contract beyond a simple base salary-to-bonus conversion. Green Bay selected Love on the heels of three consecutive “down” years from Rodgers (by his standards), but in 2020, Rodgers was nothing short of sensational. He set career highs in completion percentage (70.7%), QBR (84.4), and TD passes (48), so it makes sense that the team would be amenable to a new contract that gives its superstar additional security (financially and otherwise).
Demovsky also names OLB Preston Smith and DE Dean Lowry as potential cap casualties.
Urban Meyer Advised Trevor Lawrence On Pro Day Schedule
Since the Jaguars wrapped up the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, it has been a foregone conclusion that the club will use that selection on Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, a potentially generational talent. If you wanted even more evidence that Jacksonville will make Lawrence the first player to hear his name called when the draft kicks off on April 29, you have it.
Lawrence underwent surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder yesterday, but in order to show off his abilities before going under the knife, he held an early pro day last Friday. And as John Reid of the Florida Times-Union writes, new Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer was instrumental in bringing that pro day about.
When he heard a little over a week ago that Lawrence would need surgery, Meyer said he had a number of phone calls with his future quarterback. “We did a Zoom call with him, and I asked him – there are three choices you have. No. 1, you can wait until March 11 Pro Day – but now you are getting near August [for a recovery time],” Meyer said. “That’s getting late because it’s a five-month recovery. It’s a six-month injury. The second thing, you can not throw.”
Although Lawrence didn’t really have anything to prove, he didn’t like the second option. He wanted to have a showcase, but he agreed with Meyer that waiting until the March 11 pro day — which would mean putting off his surgery until sometime after March 11 — would push his recovery too far into the summer. So then, as Meyer recounted, “I said why don’t you just grab the ball and go throw for a little bit? I’d like to send our coordinator and passing-game coordinator to watch. They’ve never seen him. I’ve seen him, so he said, ‘Let’s go.'”
Lawrence was predictably brilliant at his pro day, so even if the Jags had any questions about his abilities, they probably don’t now. Along with Meyer, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and passing-game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer were in attendance. Jacksonville is probably still a year or two away from playoff contention, but the expectation is that having Lawrence under center will accelerate the team’s rebuild quite a bit.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Marcus Williams
Though he has yet to earn a Pro Bowl nomination, the Saints’ Marcus Williams has established himself as one of the best young safeties in the NFL. A member of New Orleans’ loaded 2017 draft class that also included Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk, Alvin Kamara, and Trey Hendrickson, Williams’ presence in the secondary has been instrumental in the Saints’ defensive success over his first four years in the league.
Williams, a free safety, is a prototypical centerfielder and ball-hawker whose one true weakness coming into the 2020 season was his tackling ability. But he made great strides in that regard, as Pro Football Focus charged him with just two missed tackles last year. PFF ranked Williams as the seventh-best safety in the game in 2020, and while it was especially bullish on his run defense, he also scored well in coverage.
Between that and his playmaking abilities — he has recorded 13 interceptions and 30 passes defensed over his first four years in the league — Williams will be a hot commodity if the Saints let him hit the open market. And New Orleans might not have a choice. The club’s salary cap problems have been well-documented, and we heard over the weekend that re-signing Hendrickson — whose 13.5 sacks were the second-most in the NFL last season — may not be possible.
The same goes for Williams. The Utah product will justifiably be aiming for the top of the safety market, which is currently headed by the Cardinals’ Budda Baker‘s $14.75MM average annual value. The Bears’ Eddie Jackson ($14.6MM) and the Titans’ Kevin Byard ($14.1MM) are not too far behind in terms of AAV, and all three players landed guarantees north of $30MM. Theoretically, GM Mickey Loomis could backload a Williams contract in an effort to fit him under the 2021 salary cap, but Loomis will have a number of difficult decisions to make, and even a backloaded deal might be too rich for the Saints at this point.
It seems that the franchise tag, which would carry a projected value of about $10.5MM, is definitely out of the question since the Saints would need to carry that entire amount on their cap in 2021. So if the Saints can’t bring back Williams, where might he end up?
The Raiders are one obvious potential landing spot. Las Vegas recently hired Gus Bradley as its new DC, and Bradley was one of the architects of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom secondary that saw Earl Thomas playing centerfield against opposing offenses. The Raiders’ offense is in pretty good shape, and after a series of straightforward cuts, they will have enough cap space to sign a quality free agent or two. Williams would team with Johnathan Abram to form a young and talented safety tandem.
The Lions and Jaguars were the two worst teams in the league in 2020 in terms of total defense, and while both clubs are very much in the rebuilding phase, Williams is young enough that he could still be a part of the next competitive outfits in Detroit or Jacksonville. Those teams have plenty of areas of need, but a strong back-end defender is a worthwhile target for any defense.
One way or another, Williams is about to get paid. He might not be the most talked-about FA at this point, but assuming the Saints don’t hit him with the franchise tag, he will be one of the first players off the board when free agency officially opens next month.
Mutual Interest Between J.J. Watt, Bills
Although he is about to turn 32 years old and just posted the lowest single-season sack total of any season in which he was able play a full slate of games, J.J. Watt finds himself in high demand. The former face of the Texans, released by Houston last week, looks like a good bet to land a multi-year pact in short order.
Over the weekend, Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News suggested that the Bills, who were among the teams linked to Watt in the immediate aftermath of his release, are unlikely to make a major free agent splash this offseason. Instead, Carucci said he expects Buffalo to use the majority of its cash on an extension for QB Josh Allen, which would keep the club out of the hunt for premier free agents like Watt.
However, ESPN’s Kimberley A. Martin reported that the Bills have indeed inquired about Watt, and that the interest is mutual (Twitter link). Carucci’s sources confirmed as much, saying that the Bills and Watt’s agent, Tom Condon, have been communicating. Interestingly, Condon also represents Allen, so perhaps he and Buffalo GM Brandon Beane can get a lot of work done over the coming days.
Watt is looking to join a contender with a top-tier quarterback, and the Bills, fresh off an AFC Championship Game appearance, certainly qualify. But there are about six teams that remain in the running, including the Browns, Titans, Steelers, and Packers, and all of them made the postseason in 2020. So while Carucci hears that Watt may start narrowing down his list in the coming days, it’s difficult to find a true frontrunner at the moment.
It’s easy to see why the Bills are seriously considering Watt. In addition to the fact that he is seen as a good fit with the team-first culture that Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have helped create in western New York, the Bills were just 20th in the league in quarterback pressures last season, and their top two defensive ends, Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison, are 32 and 33, respectively. Of course, Watt isn’t too far behind in terms of age, but while Watt graded out as the seventh-best edge defender in the league last year according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics, Addison was the No. 78 ED.
The Bills are right up against the cap, so theoretically, they could release Addison to create a little more than $6MM in space and then put that money towards a contract for Watt. Spotrac projects a two-year, $24MM deal for the five-time First Team All-Pro.