2018’s Major NFL Coaching Changes
Because most NFL coaching changes happen in January, those moves can often be overshadowed by the postseason and – subsequently – the major moves that teams makes in free agency. However, those coaching changes shouldn’t be overlooked.
A year ago, 15 of the league’s 32 teams made changes to at least one of their head coach, offensive coordinator, or defensive coordinator spots, and many of those hirings turned into major stories throughout the 2017 season. New head coaches Sean McVay, Sean McDermott, and Doug Marrone led the Rams, Bills, and Jaguars, respectively, to the postseason in their first go-rounds in charge, while new defensive coordinators Steve Wilks and Mike Vrabel leveraged their one-year stints as a play-callers to become the next Cardinals and Titans head coach, respectively.
Which new coaches could make a similar impact this year? We may have to wait to find out, but there are certainly plenty of candidates. The full breakdown of 2018’s major coaching changes from around the league is below:
Head coaches:
- Arizona Cardinals: Hired Steve Wilks to replace Bruce Arians.
- Chicago Bears: Hired Matt Nagy to replace John Fox.
- Detroit Lions: Hired Matt Patricia to replace Jim Caldwell.
- Indianapolis Colts: Hired Frank Reich to replace Chuck Pagano.
- New York Giants: Hired Pat Shurmur to replace Ben McAdoo / Steve Spagnuolo (interim).
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Jon Gruden to replace Jack Del Rio.
- Tennessee Titans: Hired Mike Vrabel to replace Mike Mularkey.
Offensive coordinators:
- Arizona Cardinals: Hired Mike McCoy to replace Harold Goodwin.
- Buffalo Bills: Hired Brian Daboll to replace Rick Dennison.
- Carolina Panthers: Hired Norv Turner to replace Mike Shula.
- Chicago Bears: Hired Mark Helfrich to replace Dowell Loggains.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Retained interim OC Bill Lazor.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired Todd Haley to fill vacant position.
- Denver Broncos: Retained interim OC Bill Musgrave.
- Green Bay Packers: Hired Joe Philbin to replace Edgar Bennett.
- Indianapolis Colts: Hired Nick Sirianni to replace Rob Chudzinski.
- Kansas City Chiefs: Promoted Eric Bieniemy to replace Matt Nagy.
- Los Angeles Rams: Will not hire OC to replace Matt LaFleur.
- Miami Dolphins: Hired Dowell Loggains to replace Clyde Christensen.
- Minnesota Vikings: Hired John DeFilippo to replace Pat Shurmur.
- New York Giants: Hired Mike Shula to replace Mike Sullivan.
- New York Jets: Promoted Jeremy Bates to replace John Morton.
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Greg Olson to replace Todd Downing.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Promoted Mike Groh to replace Frank Reich.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Promoted Randy Fichtner to replace Todd Haley.
- Seattle Seahawks: Hired Brian Schottenheimer to replace Darrell Bevell.
- Tennessee Titans: Hired Matt LaFleur to replace Terry Robiskie.
Defensive coordinators:
- Arizona Cardinals: Hired Al Holcomb to replace James Bettcher.
- Baltimore Ravens: Promoted Don Martindale to replace Dean Pees.
- Carolina Panthers: Promoted Eric Washington to replace Steve Wilks.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Hired Teryl Austin to replace Paul Guenther.
- Detroit Lions: Hired Paul Pasqualoni to replace Teryl Austin.
- Green Bay Packers: Hired Mike Pettine to replace Dom Capers.
- Houston Texans: Hired Romeo Crennel to replace Mike Vrabel.
- Indianapolis Colts: Hired Matt Eberflus to replace Ted Monachino.
- New England Patriots: Will not hire a DC to replace Matt Patricia, but LBs coach Brian Flores will call plays.
- New York Giants: Hired James Bettcher to replace Steve Spagnuolo.
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Paul Guenther to replace John Pagano.
- Seattle Seahawks: Hired Ken Norton Jr. to replace Kris Richard.
- Tennessee Titans: Hired Dean Pees to replace Dick LeBeau.
Special teams coordinators:
- Arizona Cardinals: Hired Jeff Rodgers to replace Amos Jones.
- Carolina Panthers: Promoted Chase Blackburn to replace Thomas McGaughey.
- Chicago Bears: Hired Chris Tabor to replace Jeff Rodgers.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired Amos Jones to replace Chris Tabor.
- Dallas Cowboys: Promoted Keith O’Quinn to replace Rich Bisaccia.
- Denver Broncos: Hired Tom McMahon to replace Brock Olivo.
- Houston Texans: Hired Brad Seely to replace Larry Izzo.
- Indianapolis Colts: Hired Ray Ventrone to replace Tom McMahon.
- New York Giants: Hired Thomas McGaughey to replace Tom Quinn.
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Rich Bisaccia to replace Brad Seely.
- Tennessee Titans: Promoted Craig Aukerman to replace Steve Hoffman.
Other 2017 OCs, DCs with new jobs:
- Buffalo Bills: Hired former Titans OC Terry Robiskie as wide receivers coach.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired former Bengals OC Ken Zampese as quarterbacks coach.
- Dallas Cowboys: Hired former Seahawks DC Kris Richard as secondary coach/defensive passing game coordinator.
- Denver Broncos: Hired former Giants OC Mike Sullivan as quarterbacks coach.
- Houston Texans: Hired former Raiders DC John Pagano as outside linebackers coach.
- Miami Dolphins: Reassigned former Dolphins OC Clyde Christensen as director, football and player development.
- Minnesota Vikings: Hired former Raiders OC Todd Downing as a senior offensive assistant.
- New York Jets: Hired former Bills OC Rick Dennison as offensive line coach/run game coordinator.
- Oakland Raiders: Hired former Packers OC Edgar Bennett as wide receivers coach.
2018 NFL Trades
We’ve already seen a few trades consummated since the 2018 league year began on March 14th, and with the draft not too far off, several more deals figure to be completed this spring. We’ll track those moves – and the rest of the year’s trades, right up until the fall deadline – in this space.
Here’s a breakdown of 2018’s trades to date, in reverse chronological order:
Post-Draft
- Redskins acquired S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
- Packers acquired a 2019 fourth-round pick.
- Rams acquired DE Dante Fowler.
- Jaguars acquired a 2019 third-round pick and a 2020 fifth-round pick.
- Third-round pick will be Los Angeles’ highest compensatory selection if it receives one in 2019. If not, pick will be Rams’ assigned third-rounder.
- Ravens acquired RB Ty Montgomery.
- Packers acquired a 2020 seventh-round pick.
- Eagles acquired WR Golden Tate.
- Lions acquired a 2019 third-round pick.
- Texans acquired WR Demaryius Thomas and a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Broncos acquired a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Lions acquired DT Damon Harrison.
- Giants acquired a conditional 2019 fifth-round pick.
- Saints acquired CB Eli Apple.
- Giants acquired a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2020 seventh-round pick.
- Cowboys acquired WR Amari Cooper.
- Raiders acquired a 2019 first-round pick.
- Jaguars acquired RB Carlos Hyde.
- Browns acquired a 2019 fifth-round pick.
- Panthers acquired T Marshall Newhouse.
- Bills acquired a 2021 conditional seventh-round pick.
- Patriots acquired WR Josh Gordon and a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Browns acquired a 2019 fifth-round pick.
- Eagles acquired DB Deiondre’ Hall.
- Bears acquired a conditional 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Browns acquired DL Devaroe Lawrence.
- Saints acquired a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Raiders acquired QB A.J. McCarron.
- Bills acquired a 2019 fifth-round pick.
- Colts acquired WR Marcus Johnson.
- Seahawks acquired TE Darrell Daniels.
- Seahawks acquired S Shalom Luani.
- Raiders acquired a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Panthers acquired T Corey Robinson.
- Lions acquired a conditional 2020 seventh-round pick.
- Bears acquired LB Khalil Mack, a 2020 second-round pick, and a conditional 2020 fifth-round pick.
- Raiders acquired a 2019 first-round pick, 2019 sixth-round pick, a 2020 first-round pick, and a 2020 third-round pick. .
- 49ers acquired T Shon Coleman.
- Browns acquired a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Chiefs acquired S Jordan Lucas.
- Dolphins acquired a 2020 seventh-round pick.
- Falcons acquired S Jordan Richards.
- Patriots acquired a conditional 2020 seventh-round pick.
- Cowboys acquired OL Parker Ehinger.
- Chiefs acquired CB Charvarius Ward.
- Saints acquired QB Teddy Bridgewater and a 2019 sixth-round pick.
- Jets acquired a 2019 third-round pick.
- Seahawks acquired QB Brett Hundley.
- Packers acquired a 2019 sixth-round pick.
- Titans acquired LB Kamalei Correa.
- Ravens acquired a 2019 sixth-round pick.
- Steelers acquired WR Ryan Switzer and a 2019 sixth-round pick.
- Raiders acquired a 2019 fifth-round pick.
- Vikings acquired C Brett Jones.
- Giants acquired a conditional 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Packers acquired LB Antonio Morrison.
- Colts acquired CB Lenzy Pipkins.
- Lions acquired LB Eli Harold.
- 49ers acquired a conditional 2020 seventh-round pick.
- 49ers will acquire 2020 pick if Harold is on Lions’ roster for four weeks.
- Bills acquired WR Corey Coleman.
- Browns acquired a 2020 seventh-round pick.
- Raiders acquired QB Christian Hackenberg.
- Jets acquired a conditional 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Cardinals acquired CB Jamar Taylor.
- Browns acquired a 2020 sixth-round pick.
- Dolphins acquired DT Akeem Spence.
- Lions acquired a 2019 seventh-round pick.
During Draft
- Raiders acquired WR Ryan Switzer.
- Cowboys acquired DL Jihad Ward.
- Eagles acquired a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 233; OL Jordan Mailata).
- Patriots acquired a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 250; TE Ryan Izzo) and a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Redskins acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 197; LB Shaun Dion Hamilton) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 256; WR Trey Quinn.).
- Rams acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 205; LB Trevon Young) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 231; LB Travin Howard).
- Chiefs acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 198; DT Kahlil McKenzie).
- Patriots acquired a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 233) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 243; CB Keion Crossen).
- Falcons acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 194; WR Russell Gage).
- Rams acquired a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 244; DE Justin Lawler) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 256).
- Jets acquired DL Henry Anderson.
- Colts acquired a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 235; LB Zaire Franklin).
- Vikings acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 167; K Daniel Carlson) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 225; CB Devante Downs).
- Jets acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 180; DT Folorunso Fatukasi) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 204; RB Trenton Cannon).
- Rams acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 160; Ogbonnia Okoronkwo).
- Broncos acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 183; G Sam Jones) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 217; LB Keishawn Bierria).
- Vikings acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 157; TE Tyler Conklin).
- Jets acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 167) and a 2018 seventh-round pick.
- Cowboys acquired WR Tavon Austin.
- Rams acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 192; T Jamil Denby).
- Titans acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 152; CB Dane Cruikshank).
- Ravens acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 162; WR Jordan Lasley) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 215; C Bradley Bozeman).
- Seahawks acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 149; P Michael Dickson).
- Broncos acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 156; TE Troy Fumagalli) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 226; RB David Williams).
- Raiders acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 140; DT Maurice Hurst).
- Colts acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 159; WR Daurice Fountain) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 185; WR Deon Cain).
- Panthers acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 136; WR Jaleel Scott).
- Rams acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 147; LB Micah Kiser) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 197).
- Lions acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 114; DL Da’Shawn Hand).
- Patriots acquired a 2019 third-round pick.
- Browns acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 105; WR Antonio Callaway).
- Patriots acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 114) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 178; LB Christian Sam).
- Buccaneers acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 94; OL Alex Cappa).
- Vikings acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 102; DE Jalyn Holmes) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 180).
- Packers acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 88; LB Oren Burks).
- Panthers acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 101; TE Ian Thomas) and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 147).
- Raiders acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 87; DE Arden Key).
- Rams acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 89; Joseph Noteboom) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 217).
- Steelers acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 76; QB Mason Rudolph).
- Seahawks acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 79; DE Rasheem Green) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 220; QB Alex McGough).
- Chiefs acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 75; DL Derrick Nnadi).
- Ravens acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 86; TE Mark Andrews) and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 122; LB Kenny Young).
- Raiders acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 65; OL Brandon Parker).
- Ravens acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 75), a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 152), and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 212; T Greg Senat).
- Colts acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 64; DE Tyquan Lewis).
- Browns acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 67; DE Chad Thomas) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 178).
- Patriots acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 56; CB Duke Dawson).
- Buccaneers acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 63; CB Carlton Davis), and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 117; S Jordan Whitehead).
- Bears acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 51; WR Anthony Miller).
- Patriots acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 105) and a 2019 second-round pick.
- Eagles acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 49; TE Dallas Goedert).
- Colts acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 52; DE Kemoko Turay) and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 169; RB Jordan Wilkins).
- Chiefs acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 46; DE Breeland Speaks) and a 2018 third-round pick (No. 100; LB Dorian O’Daniel).
- Bengals acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 54; S Jessie Bates) and a 2018 third-round pick (No. 78; LB Malik Jefferson).
- 49ers acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 44; WR Dante Pettis) and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 142; CB D.J. Reed).
- Redskins acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 59; RB Derrius Guice) and a 2018 third-round pick (No. 74; T Geron Christian).
- Lions acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 43; RB Kerryon Johnson).
- Patriots acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 51) and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 117).
- Titans acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 41; LB Rashaan Evans).
- Raiders acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 57; DT P.J. Hall) and a 2019 third-round pick (No. 89).
- Patriots acquired T Trent Brown and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 143; LB Ja’Whaun Bentley).
- 49ers acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 95; S Tarvarius Moore).
- Ravens acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 32; QB Lamar Jackson) and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 132; WR Jaleel Scott).
- Eagles acquired a 2018 second-round pick (No. 52), a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 125; CB Avonte Maddox), and a 2019 second-round pick.
- Titans acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 22; LB Rashaan Evans) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 215).
- Ravens acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 25; TE Hayden Hurst) and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 125).
- Raiders acquired WR Martavis Bryant.
- Steelers acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 79).
- Packers acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 18; CB Jaire Alexander) and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 248; LB Kendall Donnerson).
- Seahawks acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 27; RB Rashaad Penny), a 2018 third-round pick (No. 76), and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 186; LB Jacob Martin).
- Bills acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 16; LB Tremaine Edmunds) and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 154; S Siran Neal).
- Ravens acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 22) and a 2018 third-round pick (No. 65).
- Saints acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 14; DE Marcus Davenport).
- Packers acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 27), a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 147), and a 2019 first-round pick.
- Cardinals acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 10; QB Josh Rosen).
- Raiders acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 15; T Kolton Miller), a 2018 third-round pick (No. 79), and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 152).
- Bills acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 7; QB Josh Allen).
- Buccaneers acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 12; DT Vita Vea), a 2018 second-round pick (No. 53; CB M.J. Stewart), a 2018 second-round pick (No. 56), and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 255).
Pre-Draft
- Giants acquired P Riley Dixon.
- Broncos acquired a conditional 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Redskins acquired QB Kevin Hogan and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 205).
- Browns acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 188).
- Rams acquired WR Brandin Cooks and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 136).
- Patriots acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 23) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 198).
- Jaguars acquired QB Cody Kessler.
- Browns acquired a conditional 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Browns will acquire 2019 pick if Kessler is on Jaguars’ active 46-man roster for six games in 2018.
- Broncos acquired S Su’a Cravens, a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 113), and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 149).
- Redskins acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 109), a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 142), and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 163), and a conditional 2020 sixth-round pick.
- Redskins will acquire 2020 pick if Cravens appears in a playoff game for the Broncos.
- Broncos acquired T Jared Veldheer.
- Cardinals acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 182).
- Buccaneers acquired DE Jason Pierre-Paul and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 102).
- Giants acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 69) and a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 108).
- Cowboys acquired FB Jamize Olawale and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 192).
- Raiders acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 173).
- Patriots acquired WR Cordarrelle Patterson and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 210).
- Raiders acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 159).
- Jets acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 3 overall).
- Colts acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 6 overall), a 2018 second-round pick (No. 37), a 2018 second-round pick (No. 49), and a 2019 second-round pick.
- Patriots acquired CB Jason McCourty and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 219).
- Browns acquired a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 205).
- Dolphins acquired C Daniel Kilgore and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 227).
- 49ers acquired a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 223).
- Vikings acquired QB Trevor Siemian and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 225).
- Broncos acquired a 2019 fifth-round pick.
- Bengals acquired T Cordy Glenn, a 2018 first-round pick (No. 21), and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 158).
- Bills acquired a 2018 first-round pick (No. 12) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 187).
- Patriots acquired DT Danny Shelton and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 159).
- Browns acquired a 2019 third-round pick.
- Packers acquired QB DeShone Kizer, a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 101), and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 138).
- Browns acquired DB Damarious Randall, a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 114), and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 150).
- Browns acquired QB Tyrod Taylor.
- Bills acquired a 2018 third-round pick (No. 65).
- Browns acquired WR Jarvis Landry.
- Dolphins acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 123) and a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Panthers acquired WR Torrey Smith.
- Eagles acquired CB Daryl Worley.
- Rams acquired CB Aqib Talib.
- Broncos acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 160).
- Giants acquired LB Alec Ogletree and a 2019 seventh-round pick.
- Rams acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 135) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 176).
- Eagles acquired DE Michael Bennett and a 2018 seventh-round pick (No. 250).
- Seahawks acquired WR Marcus Johnson and a 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 156).
- Dolphins acquired DE Robert Quinn and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 209)
- Rams acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 111) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 183).
- Rams acquired CB Marcus Peters and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 209).
- Chiefs acquired a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 120) and a 2019 second-round pick.
- Redskins acquired QB Alex Smith.
- Chiefs acquired CB Kendall Fuller and a 2018 third-round pick (No. 78).
The Top 25 Remaining NFL Free Agents
Many of this year’s top free agents came off of the board during the legal tampering period, including Kirk Cousins, Trumaine Johnson, Sammy Watkins, and Allen Robinson. Still plenty of the names from our list of the Top 50 Free Agents remain, including some new additions. Here’s a rundown of the players to keep an eye on as free agency officially begins, ranked roughly by their expected contract value:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT (Dolphins): The Dolphins bailed on Suh’s mega contract midway through, freeing him up to sign another high-priced contract. He won’t get anything close to a six-year, $114MM deal this time around, but he should settle in at an AAV that keeps him among the best compensated players at his position. Last year, Pro Football Focus ranked Suh fifth among 122 interior defenders. 
2. Tyrann Mathieu, S (Cardinals): The Cardinals worked feverishly to hammer out a new contract with the Honey Badger, but the two sides could not come to terms on a deal to lessen his 2018 cap hit. He has been released, allowing him to hit free agency as the best safety available. The Jets are not believed to be interested, despite his connection with head coach Todd Bowles. The other tenant of the Meadowlands, however, could have interest thanks to the presence of former Arizona DC James Bettcher.
3. Sheldon Richardson, DT (Seahawks): Richardson may have lost some luster following the trade that sent him from the Jets to the Seahawks, but he among the best defensive tackles currently available. With plenty of cap space remaining, Richardson should find a lucrative deal, though it probably won’t come from Seattle. Our own Dallas Robinson estimates that Richardson will fetch about $9MM/year.
4. Dontari Poe, DT (Falcons): Poe missed out on a big payday last year when teams shied away from him due to lingering back issues. After turning in his second consecutive 16-game season, things could be different this time. For the record – Poe has missed only two regular season games over the course of his career, so he boasts a better attendance record than a lot of other veterans on this list. He’s unlikely to circle back to Atlanta.
5. Josh Sitton, G (Bears): With Andrew Norwell off of the board, Sitton stands as the best guard on the market. He’s missed six games over the last two years, but he has four Pro Bowl appearances to his credit. He’s set to meet with the Dolphins.
6. A.J. McCarron, QB (Bengals): It’s difficult to peg McCarron’s value heading into free agency. Outside of some quality starts in 2015, there isn’t much film out there on McCarron, despite that fact that he has spent four years in the NFL. Hue Jackson was itching to reunite with McCarron, but the Browns no longer seem a likely destination for him after the acquisition of Tyrod Taylor. It’s also hard to see him landing with the QB-needy Jets after they re-signed Josh McCown and added Teddy Bridgewater. McCarron will find a home, but it may not be as a starter. [UPDATE: McCarron has signed with the Bills]
7. E.J. Gaines, CB (Bills): Injuries in the fall limited Gaines to just 11 games last season, but he proved to be a quality return for the Bills in the Watkins trade, in addition to the second-round pick that came with him. Gaines graded out as the No. 13 cornerback in the league last year, per PFF, and he just turned 26 in February. Gaines missed all of ’15 due to injury and didn’t look all that sharp in ’16, but timing is everything in free agency. You can expect multiple teams to call on him and the Texans could still have interest, even after inking Aaron Colvin.
8. Eric Reid, S (49ers): Reid is just 26 and is undoubtedly a starting quality safety. He has both youth and versatility on his side, but it’s possible that his anthem protest participation could hurt him when it comes to some suitors. Injuries over the last two seasons will hurt his market as well.
Top 3 Offseason Needs: New England Patriots
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New England Patriots, who, following a trade of their future quarterback and reports of disfunction in the organization, lost a high-scoring Super Bowl to the Eagles.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Danny Amendola
- Johnson Bademosi, CB
- Brandon Bolden, RB
- Rex Burkhead, RB
- Malcolm Butler, CB
- Nate Ebner, S
- Chase Farris, G (ERFA)
- Cameron Fleming, T
- Marquis Flowers, LB
- Ricky Jean-Francois, DL
- Caleb Kidder, DE (ERFA)
- Brandon King, S (RFA)
- Dion Lewis, RB
- Matthew Slater, WR
- Nate Solder, T
- LaAdrian Waddle, T
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Tom Brady, QB: $22,000,000
- Stephon Gilmore, CB: $12,600,000
- Devin McCourty, S: $11,935,000
- Rob Gronkowski, TE: $10,906,250
- Dont’a Hightower, LB: $9,125,000
- Brandin Cooks, WR: $8,459,000
- Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,412,500
- Marcus Cannon, T: $5,800,000
- Dwayne Allen, TE: $5,000,000
- Stephen Gostkowski, K: $5,000,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $16,604,239
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for WR Phillip Dorsett
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DT Malcom Brown
Three Needs:
1) Reinforcement on front seven
Bill Belichick’s defensive “bend, don’t break” mantra showed major cracks in the Super Bowl. New England allowed 538 yards in their championship loss, although the defensive breakdown wasn’t all that surprising. Despite only allowing 18.5 points per game in 2017 (the fifth-best mark in the NFL), the Patriots defense still allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the league.
Sure, this could certainly be attributed to the Patriots’ defensive backs, but their core of safeties and cornerbacks looks solid heading into free agency. Sure, Malcolm Butler is likely out the door, but the Patriots still have a solid trio of Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, and Patrick Chung. While the team could certainly use an upgrade at their second cornerback spot (Jonathan Jones, Eric Rowe, and Cyrus Jones are ultimately destined for backup/nickel roles), the Patriots don’t really have too much they can improve with this unit.
Rather, the team should be focusing on adding some talent to their front seven. The Patriots did limit opponents to only six rushing touchdowns (second-best in NFL) while compiling 42 sacks (tied for seventh), but their 114.8 rushing yards allowed per game certainly left a lot to be desired. These numbers also don’t tell the full story, as the front-seven was always susceptible to the big run, and they often let opposing quarterbacks sit in the pocket (thus allowing the signal-callers to pick the defensive backs apart). In fact, despite some of the encouraging counting stats, Football Outsiders ranked the team’s rushing defense 30th overall.
The struggles were all but confirmed by the organization late in the season, as they were forced to bring in a 39-year-old James Harrison for some help on the edge. While the veteran looked fine in his four regular season/postseason games (13 tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble), it’s a bit telling when a team is forced to rely on one of the oldest players in the NFL for an important role. Pro Football Focus also wasn’t fond of the team’s front-seven. The Patriots had 
nine linebackers, edge defenders, and interior defenders play more than 300 snaps last season, and only two were rated as above-average (defensive tackle Malcom Brown and defensive end Trey Flowers).
The return of a healthy Dont’a Hightower and the addition of defensive tackle Danny Shelton will certainly help. There’s also optimism due to the team’s youth, as nine of the 10 defensive lineman currently under contract are 25 or younger. However, there’s no denying that the Patriots could use some talent in their front seven, whether it comes via a defensive end or linebacker. The Patriots generally don’t like to spend big on an edge rusher, so it’d make sense to pursue some reinforcement with one of their early-round draft picks. Considering the youth on defense, New England could also pursue an older, productive lineman or linebacker who is looking for a chance a chance to win. Spending big money on a defensive end or linebacker may not be the wisest decision, but pursuing some talent on the unit should still be atop the team’s wish list.
2) Re-sign Nate Solder or a comparable replacement
While he may be 40-years-old, the Patriots top asset is still quarterback Tom Brady. Considering much of the team’s success in 2018 (and beyond) will rely on the future Hall of Famer, it only makes sense that the organization would look to protect their golden boy.
Well, for some reason, that hasn’t happened recently. Brady was sacked 35 times last season, the fourth-highest total in his career (he was also sacked 38 times in 2015). Regardless of whether the Patriots pursue a future replacement for Brady in the draft (more on that later), the team is still relying on their franchise quarterback for at least another couple of seasons. In that case, it makes plenty of sense to assure that the team’s offensive line is top-notch.
Re-signing offensive tackle Nate Solder would certainly solidify the line. The 2011 first-round pick has started 95 games for New England during his seven years with the organization, including all 16 in 2017. Pro Football Focus only rated him 32nd among 81 offensive tackle candidates last season, but the site rated him as a “high quality” option in three of the previous five campaigns. The Patriots would clearly like to retain the free agent, but Solder could be one of the most popular free agents on the market. The lineman was listed fifth on our rankings of the NFL’s top-50 free agents, and previous reports indicated that he’s expected to receive a deal that’s around $12MM annually. New England is currently staring at around $16MM in cap space, so a hefty offer could knock the Patriots out of the race.
Outside of Solder, guard Shaq Mason is truly the only other lineman the Patriots can anticipate above-average production from. David Andrews, Joe Thuney, and Marcus Cannon have all shown flashes of being solid starting lineman, and 2017 third-round Antonio Garcia (who missed his entire rookie campaign) is intriguing. However, if the team is relying on these four to round out their offensive line, they better hope that Brady “TB12 Method” is effective. In other words, Brady could conceivably see a career-high in sacks.
The Patriots haven’t been shy about taking a lineman early in the draft, so they could look to add a talented rookie to the unit. The team could also eye some of the other top free agent offensive lineman, a list that nows includes Justin Pugh or Ryan Jensen (although those two wouldn’t be replacements for Solder, per se). Either way, assuming the Patriots want to keep Brady upright (and in the starting lineup), they should either be pursuing reinforcement on their offensive line or focusing hard on locking up Solder.
3) Find a future replacement for Tom Brady
Think what you want of the Patriots’ underwhelming haul for Jimmy Garoppolo, but the team’s decision to trade the quarterback was at least rooted in logic. Presumably, the Patriots believe they can squeeze a couple more seasons out of Tom Brady, and they wanted to get some value for Garoppolo before he hit free agency (it never seemed like that the Patriots were going to pay two players starting-quarterback money, even if Brady is underpaid).
However, with Brady’s former heir apparent now out of the picture, the Patriots seemingly don’t have a plan for when their franchise quarterback ultimately retires (unless Belichick believes a 32-year-old Brian Hoyer can reinvent himself as a contending signal-caller). In other words, although the Patriots may have recently traded a 26-year-old quarterback, they should be looking at young options in this year’s draft.
Now, the Patriots shouldn’t necessarily dedicate a first-rounder (or even a second-rounder) to selecting a rookie quarterback. However, they should definitely be eyeing some candidates slated for the third-round or later. The Patriots (and their fans) shouldn’t be wary of “wasting” a pick on someone who may never take the field. Since 2010, the Patriots have selected three quarterbacks in the fourth-round or earlier, and they’ve managed to receive some sort of compensation for each of those players (Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, and Ryan Mallett) via trade. Sure, there is some lost value in trading, say, a former third-rounder for a seventh-round pick, but the Patriots don’t have the time to be patient with the quarterback position.
While the Patriots may have some more pressing needs on their 2018 roster, finding a future replacement for Brady should still be one of the team’s top priorities. Brady’s clock is ticking, and the team should be doing everything in their power to find a replacement. If the 2018 pick doesn’t pan out, then they should try again in 2019 or 2020. Playing under Belichick and Brady could be key for a young signal-caller, so the organization shouldn’t delay in their pursuit of a future starter.
5 Key Stories: 3/4/11 – 3/11/11
Seahawks say goodbye to two Super Bowl stalwarts: Starters in each of Seattle’s most recent Super Bowl appearances and cornerstone components in the franchise’s defining run this decade, Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman are now on other teams. The Seahawks shipped Bennett to the Eagles, doing so despite possibly receiving a better offer from their Super Bowl XLIX opponent. On Friday, the team released Sherman after seven seasons, and the three-time All-Pro cornerback landed on his feet quickly by signing with the 49ers. The Seahawks set a high price for Earl Thomas but may well keep the safety in the fold.
Browns dominate weekend news cycle: The Browns launched a blitz of roster maneuvers beginning Friday afternoon, when they traded for both Jarvis Landry and Tyrod Taylor. In addition to adding two presumptive Week 1 offensive starters, Cleveland jettisoned its previous Week 1 centerpiece by sending DeShone Kizer to Green Bay for Damarious Randall, with draft choices swapped as well. If that wasn’t enough, John Dorsey kept the Browns-Patriots pipeline flowing by trading Danny Shelton on Saturday morning. All the while, the Browns retained all five of their first- or second-round picks in the upcoming draft. The Browns outmuscled the Ravens, Titans and Jets for Landry and prevented the Broncos or Cardinals from Taylor access.
Rams continue aggressive offseason: While the Browns controlled a 24-hour period’s worth of headlines, the Rams have doing this for weeks. After agreeing to acquire Marcus Peters and trading away Robert Quinn recently, the Rams were back in action this week. They first agreed to ship Alec Ogletree to the Giants for a draft pick then agreed to send the Broncos a fifth-rounder for the rights to Aqib Talib. With the team earlier that day signing Sam Shields, it looks like Los Angeles will have nearly an entirely new cornerback corps next season. The Broncos were also negotiating with the 49ers, but Talib nixed an agreement with San Francisco. That could well have led the 49ers to enter the Sherman race.
Mike Evans breaks ground: The 2014 draft class had notably not seen a first-round pick sign an extension with his team, but the Buccaneers became the trail blazers here. Tampa Bay agreed to terms on a massive re-up with its No. 1 wide receiver. The former Texas A&M standout signed a five-year, $82.5MM deal with the Bucs, and $55MM will come in guarantees. Evans will count $18.25MM toward Tampa Bay’s cap this year.
Tag deadline keeps more off market: Following in the Redskins’ footsteps, the Steelers placed the franchise tag on Le’Veon Bell for a second straight year. No other member of this year’s tag class is a two-timer. However, the Rams made the 11th-hour decision to tag Lamarcus Joyner instead of Sammy Watkins. And the Bears, a year after turning down Kyle Fuller‘s fifth-year option, placed the lesser-used transition tag on the breakout corner. Demarcus Lawrence signed his franchise tender earlier this week as well. Bell and the Steelers could again be set for a lengthy staredown, but Bell continues to express optimism and said he will not partake in a holdout that lasts past Week 1.
PFR Originals: 3/4/18 – 3/11/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- As free agency approaches, PFR’s Zach Links and Dallas Robinson listed the top players available at each position, first with the offense — where Kirk Cousins is the marquee prize, with the likes of Andrew Norwell and Allen Robinson also expected to encounter big markets — and then on defense. Former Jets teammates Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson are two top-tier UFAs, and Trumaine Johnson will finally test the market.
- Zach also compiled PFR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents list. Unsurprisingly, Cousins is No. 1. Technically a free agent, though he’s shown no desire to leave New Orleans, Drew Brees appears on here as well. Longtime Patriots tackle Nate Solder factors in prominently among UFA offensive linemen, joining Norwell in that regard.
- As the offseason progresses, PFR will assess each team by examining the top three needs on each respective NFL roster. We covered two organizations last week:
Top 3 Offseason Needs: Minnesota Vikings
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Minnesota Vikings, who stormed back to contention and ventured to their first NFC championship game since the 2009 season.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Joe Berger, OL
- Sam Bradford, QB
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB
- Tramaine Brock, CB
- Mack Brown, RB (ERFA)
- Nick Easton, OL (RFA)
- Michael Floyd, WR
- Kai Forbath, K
- Anthony Harris, S (ERFA)
- Case Keenum, QB
- Tom Johnson, DT
- Emmanuel Lamur
- Jerick McKinnon, RB
- Terence Newman, CB
- Jeff Overbaugh, LS (ERFA)
- Bishop Sankey, RB (RFA)
- Marcus Sherels, CB
- Jeremiah Sirles, G (RFA)
- Shamar Stephen, DT
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Xavier Rhodes, CB: $13,400,000
- Anthony Barr, LB: $12,306,000
- Everson Griffen, DE: $11,600,000
- Riley Reiff, T: $11,400,000
- Harrison Smith, S: $10,000,000
- Linval Joseph, DT: $8,050,000
- Kyle Rudolph, TE: $7,675,000
- Sharrif Floyd, DT: $6,757,000
- Latavius Murray, RB: $6,350,000
- Jarius Wright, WR: $4,760,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $56,497,939
- 30th pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for CB Trae Waynes
Three Needs:
1) Pick a quarterback option: Over the past decade, the Vikings have been one of the more unique NFL teams. While playoff brackets are annually populated by teams with long-term solutions at quarterback, the Vikings have managed to be a frequent presence in NFC postseasons without one. Since 2008, Minnesota’s booked playoff berths with five different quarterbacks, with each — Tarvaris Jackson (2008), Brett Favre (’09), Christian Ponder (2012), Teddy Bridgewater (’15) and Case Keenum (’17) — of Keenum’s predecessors never repeating that feat with the team.
Due to his status entering the season, Keenum may have been the unlikeliest of this contingent to be a playoff quarterback. But he elevated the Vikings to a borderline-dominant regular season and was involved in one of the most improbable moments in NFL history. He’s one of the Vikes’ three UFA QBs, assuming Bridgewater’s contract does not toll, but not a certainty to come back. Keenum departing would add to that unique list of one-and-done Vikings playoff QBs, but he’s a key component in a complex decision-making process.
The Vikings have decided not to place the franchise tag on Keenum and are now heavily connected to Kirk Cousins, who would stand to be the kind of long-term solution Minnesota has sought since Daunte Culpepper. Winning this unique race would leave other franchises scrambling. But how committed are the Vikings to make Cousins the highest-paid player in NFL history when they’ve been arguably the best team at making do without such an expense on their payroll?
As a starter, Cousins has as many playoff berths as the rest of the players on the Vikings’ modern-era QB list. But an argument could be made paying him approximately $30MM per year is safer than authorizing a long-term deal for Keenum at a starter-level price. Cousins has submitted multiple above-average seasons, holds single-season Redskins passing records and played well despite working for one of the least stable organizations in American sports.
However, Minnesota should understandably be leery of Cousins becoming the next Joe Flacco: a talented but unspectacular passer who used extraordinary circumstances to land a monster contract — the kind that can make finding supporting-cast help difficult and harm salary caps. However, it’s not like the Vikings didn’t have franchise-QB money on their 2017 books. Their three passers took up more than $22MM of the ’17 payroll. Only six teams paid more to quarterbacks last season than the Vikings did. And a Cousins $30MM-per-year (or close to it) deal wouldn’t comprise a significantly greater percentage of the Vikings’ cap in a $177.2MM-cap universe than recent QB contracts.
Peyton Manning‘s $19.2MM-AAV contract represented approximately 15.5 percent of Denver’s 2012 cap (in a $123MM-cap universe), and Aaron Rodgers‘ $22MM-per-year extension (16.5 percent of the ’13 Packers’ cap) turned out to be a team-friendly accord considering Rodgers’ talents and where the cap went in the coming years. Matthew Stafford‘s $27MM-AAV re-up actually comprised less of the 2017 Lions’ payroll than Rodgers’ 2013 deal did of Green Bay’s. While Cousins’ guarantees will likely be surpass Stafford’s record $60MM, a deal for the soon-to-be 30-year-old QB wouldn’t be that far out of step with recent-past agreements.
Cousins is not on the Rodgers/Drew Brees/Tom Brady/Ben Roethlisberger tier and it’s arguable he may never reliably be a top-10 passer, either. But it will cost more to pay him than it will any other NFL player to date. And the advanced-metrics community did not enjoy Cousins’ 2017 season.
Although, he was deprived of the kind of weapons he had in 2016 (or the kind he’d have in Minnesota). Cousins led the NFL with 1,359 yards on deep throws in 2016, but that figure — per Pro Football Focus — dropped to 825 last season. His adjusted completion percentage dropped from 51 to 40 on deep throws, and his third-down grade ranked 31st (Twitter link; h/t Matthew Coller of ESPN1500). PFF tabbed Cousins as the No. 19 QB last season. Football Outsiders slotted the then-Redskins passer 16th in DYAR — 12 spots behind Keenum, and no team has more intel on Keenum’s ceiling than the Vikings.
A Keenum re-up would be banking on the 30-year-old signal-caller being able to continue his out-of-nowhere progression and do so without Pat Shurmur. It wouldn’t cost as much as a Cousins contract, but considering Keenum’s resume as either a backup or stopgap in his five-year pre-Twin Cities career, his future is harder to project than Cousins’. That makes Keenum’s market difficult to determine.
The Vikings not tagging him could make Keenum — whose 2017 season (22 TD passes, seven INTs, 7.6 yards per attempt, and a 67.6 percent completion rate) made him look like a different quarterback — more open to deals outside of Minnesota. Fellow Cousins chaser Denver has been linked to Keenum at multiple junctures. Football Outsiders was sold on Keenum’s 2017 work, for what it’s worth, placing his 1,298 DYAR behind only Brady, Philip Rivers and Brees — and nearly 900 yards north of Cousins’ figure.
Mike Zimmer is a known Bridgewater defender. Despite the former first-round pick not exactly lighting it up during Minnesota’s 2015 playoff season (14 TD passes, nine INTs in 16 starts), the Louisville product saw career-defining injuries deny him the chance to show further growth. Having two full seasons taken away from him, the 25-year-old QB now profiles as a stopgap option in free agency or a high-end backup. But the Vikings could well be the team that takes him on as a reserve.
The Vikings’ decision could well shape the quarterback market. Minnesota has proven it can manage without the services of franchise quarterback, but securing one could elevate the franchise to a higher level.
2) Identify extension candidates: Part of the reason the Vikes could be hesitant to throw a king’s ransom at Cousins is its 2019 free agent class. It’s one of the best in the league and contains several core performers. Set for UFA status a year from now: Anthony Barr, Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Trae Waynes and Eric Kendricks.
With a Cousins-Bridgewater setup, the Vikings will be hard-pressed to keep everyone here. But that wouldn’t be likely even if the team went with Keenum and Bridgewater. However, with the 2019 cap likely to settle in at around $190MM, making these kind of plans has become easier than it was in previous stretches.Read more
PFR’s Top 50 NFL Free Agents For 2018 1.0
There will be tons of free agents available in March, but only a some of them can be real difference makers for your favorite team. To help separate the wheat from the chaff, we’ve assembled our early list of the Top 50 NFL Free Agents for 2018.
Our early version of the NFL’s top 50 free agents may include players who will be re-signed between now and March 14. When we update this list next week, a few of the big names will be spoken for while new high-profile names will join the fray as veterans become cap casualties.
Recently, we broke down the top free agents by position on both offense and defense, but our rankings below may not have each player listed in the same order. Those position lists took the short-term value of a player into account more heavily, meaning many players in their 30s received prominent placement. Our overall top 50 list favors longer-term value, and is more about forecasting which players will be in highest demand when it comes to years and dollars.
With those caveats out of the way, let’s dive in! Here are Pro Football Rumors’ top 50 NFL free agents for 2018:
1. Kirk Cousins, QB (Redskins): At long last, Kirk Cousins is headed towards unrestricted free agency. You may or may not regard Cousins as a star, 
but he is the best quarterback in recent history to reach the open market and QB-needy teams will be rolling out the red carpet for him. The Jets, Vikings, Broncos, and Cardinals have been named as the top suitors for his services, but the NFL is full of surprises this time of year and we would not be surprised to see other teams get involved. The cash-flush Browns are reportedly keen on signing a lower-cost vet and drafting a QB early, but who’s to say they won’t change course and get in on the Cousins sweepstakes? The Bills, Giants, Dolphins, Bucs, and Colts could also consider kicking the tires here, but there are obstacles in that bunch ranging from established starters already in place (Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, and Andrew Luck) to financial constraints. No matter where he goes, it’s almost certain that Cousins will become the league’s highest-paid player of all-time. That is, until another top-tier QB signs a contract extension soon after.
2. Drew Brees (Saints): There are multiple possibilities for Cousins but it’s hard to see a scenario in which Brees actually leaves the Saints. Brees has already said that he does not plan on testing free agency, so he’ll likely put pen to paper before things begin on March 14. As far as we can tell, the only way Brees will think about leaving is if he is lowballed to an extreme degree by the Saints, but that seems improbable based on his history with the team
3. Case Keenum (Vikings): One year ago, no one ever would have expected Keenum to be one of 2018’s most sought-after free agents. The Vikings signed the former Rams signal caller to a one-year, $2MM deal in March with the idea that he would back up Sam Bradford and, eventually slide down to third on the depth chart when/if Teddy Bridgewater returned to full health. When Bradford went down in September, Keenum exceeded all expectations and put together the best season of his career. The 30-year-old graded out as Pro Football Focus’ ninth-ranked QB in 2017, putting him above the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford, and Tyrod Taylor. With Keenum at the helm, the Vikings earned a first-round bye and beat the Saints in a playoff thriller before succumbing to the Eagles in the NFC championship game. Of course, after four seasons of mediocrity, teams are wondering whether this was an aberration or a real sign of things to come. Teams know that Keenum is not a lock, but he’s also the best Plan B for any team that loses out on Cousins or doesn’t have the means to sign him.
4. Andrew Norwell, G (Panthers): There was a time when tackles were the only offensive linemen to really cash in on the open market. That’s no longer the case, as evidenced by the contracts of Kevin Zeitler (five years, $60MM) and Kelechi Osemele (five years, $58.5MM). Osemele inked his free agent deal with the Raiders in 2016 and Zeitler signed his in the 2017 offseason. Given the cap increase and the natural progression of the market, Norwell figures to reset the market for interior linemen. Keenum figures to gross no less than $20MM/year on his next contract, so he’s slotted behind him, but an average annual value of $13-14MM is not out of the question for the former undrafted free agent.
5. Nate Solder, OT (Patriots): Solder isn’t coming off of his best season and he might be the least sexy name in the top ten. Still, there’s a dearth of tackles league-wide and Solder has been among the league’s best at his position for quite some time. The Patriots are bracing for Solder to leave as they fear he’ll garner offers of $12MM/year. No other tackle in this year’s free agent crop is even close to him in terms of ability, so we’re also buying into the hype. Injuries contributed to Solder’s up-and-down season, particularly early on, so teams will take that into account when evaluating him.
6. Allen Robinson, WR (Jaguars): The Jaguars opted against using the franchise tag on Robinson, which is understandable since they have limited cap space. Robinson missed almost all of 2017 with an ACL tear, but his 2015 season (and even his so-so 2016 campaign) gives teams reason to believe that he can be a quality WR1. Robinson is one of only two such players on the unrestricted market, so expect him to get paid. Robinson probably couldn’t do worse than Kenny Britt‘s four-year, $32MM deal with the Browns from last season (and he should do a whole lot better), but if he is underwhelmed by the multi-year offers he receives, he could always go the Alshon Jeffery route. Jeffery inked a one-year, $9.5MM prove-it deal with the Eagles and that turned out to be a smashing success for both parties. Jeffery was rewarded with a four-year, $52MM extension in December, so Robinson’s camp will surely be open to a pillow contract if necessary. 
7. Sammy Watkins, WR (Rams): Some may view Robinson and Watkins as 1A and 1B in this year’s wide receiver class, particularly since Robinson missed all of 2017 and Watkins, despite his own injury history, played in all but one of the Rams’ games. Unfortunately, Watkins did not have the platform year he was hoping for as he caught just 39 passes for 593 yards. If we strike Robinson’s lost year and Watkins’ down year from the record, the breakdown favors the Jags receiver – Robinson averaged 77 receptions for 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns per 16 games in that set versus Watkins’ 66 grabs for 1,063 yards and seven scores. These two should come pretty close in average annual value, but we give the edge to Robinson.
8. Trumaine Johnson, CB (Rams): Players often bemoan the franchise tag, but Johnson can’t really complain after receiving two consecutive tags from the Rams and earning more than $30MM between 2016 and 2017. The Rams, rightfully, did not consider a third consecutive tag for Johnson at a cost of ~$20MM and they already have his replacement in Marcus Peters. That’s one suitor down, but plenty of other teams will be eager to speak with Johnson, who profiles as the best cornerback in a deep class.
9. Sheldon Richardson, DT (Seahawks): Richardson gave the Jets lots of headaches, but he also gave them high-end production. He didn’t quite match that production in Seattle, but Richardson is positioned for a massive payday anyway since impactful defensive linemen are at a premium. Our own Dallas Robinson estimates that Richardson will garner about $9MM/year, but I would say that is his floor. The top-end of free agency rarely yields team-friendly deals, so Richardson could easily creep into eight figures in AAV, particularly since he does not turn 28 until November.
10. Dontari Poe, DT (Falcons): Poe thought he was in for a monster contract last offseason, but concerns about his lingering back issues forced him to take a one-year, $8MM deal with Atlanta. Teams may still worry about his back being a ticking time bomb, but perhaps they’ll view him in a different light now that he has played back-to-back 16 game seasons and has only missed two regular season contests over the course of his career.
Top 2018 Free Agents By Position: Defense
NFL free agency will get underway on Wednesday, March 14th, and while the list of free agents will change between now and then, we do have some idea of who will be available when free agency kicks off. The frenzy is right around the corner and it’s time for us to break down the outlook for each position. After looking at offense on Monday, we’ll tackle defense and special teams today.
Listed below are our rankings for the top 15 free agents at each defensive position. These rankings aren’t necessarily determined by the value of the contracts – or the amount of guaranteed money – that each player is expected to land in free agency. These are simply the players we like the most at each position, with both short- and long-term value taken into account.
Restricted and exclusive-rights free agents, as well as players who received the franchise tag, aren’t listed here, since the roadblocks in place to hinder another team from actually acquiring most of those players prevent them from being true free agents.
We’ll almost certainly be higher or lower on some free agents than you are, so feel free to weigh in below in our comments section to let us know which players we’ve got wrong.
Here’s our breakdown of the current top 15 free agents by defensive position for 2018:
Edge defender:
- Julius Peppers
- William Hayes
- Trent Murphy
- Pernell McPhee
- Aaron Lynch
- Alex Okafor
- Adrian Clayborn
- Kony Ealy
- Connor Barwin
- Jeremiah Attaochu
- Junior Galette
- Derrick Shelby
- Barkevious Mingo
- Kareem Martin
- Erik Walden
As a positional group, pass rushers comprise interesting market on the defensive side of the ball. It’s not often that a list of best available players is topped by a 38-year-old, but Peppers is the top free agent edge defender after the Cowboys and Lions deployed the franchise tag on Demarcus Lawrence and Ezekiel Ansah, respectively. As with quarterbacks, NFL clubs are extremely reluctant to allow pass rushers to hit the open market, so top-tier options are rarely ever truly “available.” Peppers, for his part, hasn’t even declared whether he’ll return in 2018, but indications are that he’ll suit up for a 17th campaign after posting 11 sacks last year.
Alongside Peppers, other veterans populate the edge market, and while William Hayes may not be a household name, he’ll be a contributor for whichever team signs him. A stout run defender, Hayes is also capable of generating pressure despite managing only one sack in 2017. The Dolphins used Hayes on only 271 defensive snaps a season ago, and have since replaced him by acquiring fellow defensive end Robert Quinn from the Rams. Now that he’s entering his age-33 season, Hayes should come cheap, but will almost assuredly outplay his contract.
Nearly every other available pass rusher has some sort of flaw which will likely limit his market next week. Trent Murphy is only 27 years old and put up nine sacks in 2016, but he missed the entirety of the 2017 campaign with injury. Pernell McPhee, Alex Okafor, Junior Galette, and Derrick Shelby have also been plagued by health questions in recent seasons. And Adrian Clayborn famously registered the majority of his 2017 sacks (and 20% of his career sack total) in one game against overwhelmed Cowboys backup Chaz Green.
The two names that I keep coming back to are Aaron Lynch (49ers) and Jeremiah Attaochu (Chargers). Yes, Lynch has been suspended for substance abuse, struggled with his weight, and was reportedly in danger of being waived prior to last season. He’s also extremely young (he won’t turn 25 years old until Thursday) and ranked fifth in the league with 34 pass pressures as recently as 2015. Attaochu, a 25-year-old former second-round pick, also has youth on his side, and while he hasn’t quite flashed as much as Lynch, he’s also been buried on LA’s depth chart for much of his career.
Interior defensive line:
- Sheldon Richardson
- Dontari Poe
- Muhammad Wilkerson
- Star Lotulelei
- DaQuan Jones
- Beau Allen
- Denico Autry
- Justin Ellis
- Tom Johnson
- Bennie Logan
- Chris Baker
- Kyle Williams
- Dominique Easley
- Haloti Ngata
- Jay Bromley
Interior rushers are getting more respect in today’s NFL, but that still hasn’t translated to them being paid on the level of edge defenders — the 2018 franchise tag for defensive tackles, for example, is roughly $3MM cheaper than the tender for edge rushers. While the 2018 crop of interior defenders boasts some impressive top-end talent, none of the available players figure to earn a double-digit annual salary. Sheldon Richardson may have the best chance to do so, but Seattle determined he wasn’t worth a one-year cost of $13.939MM, so is any other club going to pay him $10MM per year? I’d guess he comes in closer to $9MM annually, which would still place him among the 25 highest-paid defensive tackles.
Dontari Poe will be an intriguing free agent case after setting for a one-year deal last offseason, but the most interesting battle among defensive tackles will take place Star Lotulelei and Muhammad Wilkerson, and I’m curious to see which player earns more on the open market. Both are former first-round picks, and it’s difficult to argue Wilkerson hasn’t been the more productive player — or, at least, reached higher highs — than Lotulelei. Wilkerson also won’t affect his next team’s compensatory pick formula given that he was released, but his off-field issues, which include a reported lack of effort and problems with coaches, could limit his appeal.
While Beau Allen and Denico Autry are potentially candidates to be overpaid based on their youth, there are bargains to be had at defensive tackle. Tom Johnson is 33 but he’s offered consistent pressure from the interior for years — his last contract was for three years and $7MM, so he shouldn’t cost much this time around. Haloti Ngata was injured in 2017 but plans to continue his career, and he can still stop the run. And Dominique Easley was outstanding as a 3-4 end in 2016 before missing last season with a torn ACL, meaning the former first-round pick could be a value play for any number of teams.Read more
Top 2018 NFL Free Agents By Position: Offense
NFL free agency will get underway on Wednesday, March 14th, and while the list of free agents will change between now and then, we do have some idea of who will be available when free agency kicks off. The frenzy is right around the corner and it’s time for us to break down the outlook for each position. We’ll start today on offense, before getting to defense and special teams later this week.
Listed below are our rankings for the top 15 free agents at each offensive position. The rankings aren’t necessarily determined by the value of the contracts that each player is expected to land in free agency, they are simply the players we like the most at each position, with both short- and long-term value taken into account. Restricted and exclusive-rights free agents are not listed here since they are unlikely to actually reach the open market. The same goes for players who have been franchise tagged or transition tagged.
We’ll almost certainly be higher or lower on some guys than you are, so we encourage you to make your voice heard in our comments section to let us know which free agents we’ve got wrong.
Here’s our breakdown of the current top 15 free agents by offensive position for 2018:
Quarterback:
- Kirk Cousins
- Drew Brees
- Case Keenum
- A.J. McCarron
- Sam Bradford
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Colin Kaepernick
- Josh McCown
- Mike Glennon
- Drew Stanton
- Jay Cutler
- Chase Daniel
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Brock Osweiler
- Tom Savage
There were many difficult calls when putting this list together, but ranking Kirk Cousins as the No. 1 QB available was not among them. Cousins is 
the best quarterback to reach free agency in recent history and he’ll become the highest-paid player of all-time – at least, for some period of time – in mid-March. Who will make history with Cousins? That’s anyone’s guess right now. The Browns have more cap room than any other team, but a recent report from Adam Schefter of ESPN.com listed the Broncos, Cardinals, Jets, and Vikings as the final suitors for Cousins. Of those four, the Jets have the most money to work with, but they’re concerned about the Vikings winning out and Cousins’ desire to win could point him in another direction. If the Broncos and Cardinals want in on the Cousins sweepstakes, they’ll have to get creative with the books.
Drew Brees is included here, but by his own admission, he’ll be re-signing with the Saints rather than testing the open waters of free agency. Unless the Saints lowball their franchise QB, it’s hard to see him leaving New Orleans.
Case Keenum put together a tremendous season for the Vikings, but he doesn’t have a history of success beyond 2017. There will be plenty of interest in Keenum, but only after QB-needy teams strike out on Cousins. The incumbent Vikings could re-sign Keenum, but right now, it seems like they are intent on exploring the Cousins waters first.
There isn’t a ton of footage on A.J. McCarron, which made his placement on this list awfully tricky. We know this much: McCarron did well in place of Dalton in the home stretch of the 2015 season and his former offensive coordinator Hue Jackson was salivating at the chance of landing him before the Browns bungled the trade with the Bengals. McCarron’s relative youth is a plus (he won’t turn 28 until September) and his lack of experience can be looked at as a positive. Unlike some of the other names on this list, he hasn’t run up his NFL odometer.
What will NFL teams make of Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford this offseason? Not long ago, both seemed like quality starting options. However, there are serious injury questions about both players and any team signing them will either look to backstop them with another decent option or ask them to come onboard as a QB2. With that in mind, one has to wonder if Bradford would consider retirement if asked to hold the clipboard for another signal caller. Bradford has earned upwards of $110MM over the years in the NFL, so it’s safe to say that he has enough money in the bank to call it quits if he wants. For now, he’s intent on playing.
Colin Kaepernick‘s placement on this list is sure to draw some strong reactions from his fans and detractors alike. Looking purely at his football ability, there’s no question that he belongs on someone’s roster. At minimum, Kaepernick profiles as a high-end backup, even after a year out of the game.
Quarterbacks coaches have long believed that Mike Glennon is capable of great things, due in part to his height. At 6’7″, he can see over any defensive line, but he hasn’t done much on the field to prove that he is a quality Week 1 starting option. Josh McCown, who is a decade his senior, edges him here for his surprisingly strong performance in 2017 at the helm of a weak Jets offense.
