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Franchise Tag Candidate: Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson is one of the top receivers in this year’s class of free agent wideouts, and while Robinson and the Jaguars have not engaged in contract talks, Jacksonville is reportedly open to hitting him with the franchise tag to keep him around for 2018.

Allen Robinson (Vertical)

Robinson presents an interesting case. He was fantastic in 2015, posting 80 catches for 1,400 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns en route to his first Pro Bowl nod. However, much of that production came when the Jags were trailing big and were forced to throw the football, often against soft coverages. He regressed in 2016, as he put up just 883 yards and six scores, and his 2017 campaign was wiped out by a torn ACL.

So what you have is an intriguing player in the prime of his career with tantalizing physical tools who is two years removed from his best season and who is coming off a major injury. He also struggled against press coverage in 2016, which certainly doesn’t help.

Nonetheless, he is the most gifted receiver on the Jags’ roster, and there would be at least a few teams willing to gamble on his upside if he hits the open market. Jacksonville knows that, and it also knows that it needs to surround Blake Bortles — who just signed an extension keeping him with the Jags through 2020 — with as much talent as possible. That explains why the Jags would be willing to pony up the $16MM franchise tender for a player with Robinson’s promising but questionable track record.

Fellow Jags wideout Marqise Lee is also set to hit free agency, and while he has been a solid contributor over the last several years, he is not nearly as talented as Robinson, and he, too, struggles against press coverage. So if the Jags are to let either player walk, it would likely be Lee. The other wideouts on the roster include the solid but unspectacular Allen Hurns, the unproven Dede Westbrook, and 2017 UDFA Keelan Cole.

There are plenty of intriguing wideouts in this year’s draft, but most of them are Day 2 types and may not be ready to contribute right away, and there are no other free agents that are not likely to be tagged who can match Robinson’s upside. The guess here is that Robinson plays out the 2018 season under the tag and that Jacksonville picks up a wideout in the second or third round to groom behind him.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Tennessee Titans

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Tennessee Titans, who advanced to the Divisional Round but still replaced head coach Mike Mularkey with former Texans defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Jurrell Casey, DT: $14,920,000
  2. Logan Ryan, CB: $11,166,666
  3. Taylor Lewan, T: $9,341,000
  4. Brian Orakpo, LB: $9,000,000
  5. Derrick Morgan, LB: $8,500,000
  6. Marcus Mariota, QB: $7,704,446
  7. Delanie Walker, TE: $7,033,334
  8. Johnathan Cyprien, S: $6,750,000
  9. DeMarco Murray, RB: $6,500,000
  10. Rishard Matthews, WR: $5,833,334

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $49,488268
  • 25th pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for QB Marcus Mariota

Three Needs:

1) Find a young edge rusher: Three edge rushers played more than 50% of the Titans’ defensive snaps in 2017: Brian Orakpo, who will be 32 years old when the 2018 campaign gets underway; Derrick Morgan, who turned 29 last month; and 32-year-old Erik Walden, who is an unrestricted free agent. Tennessee finished in the middle of the pack in both adjusted sack rate (12th) and total sacks (18th), but the team needs to get younger at outside linebacker.Kevin Dodd (vertical)

To be clear, the Titans do have some youthful pass rushers on their roster, but none that have shown anything at the NFL level. Kevin Dodd, selected near the top of the second round in the 2016 draft, missed time with a foot injury during his rookie season and subsequently failed to make an impact in 2017. In total, he’s played only 279 defensive snaps during his first two years in the league. A pair of former seventh-rounders — Aaron Wallace and Josh Carraway — also haven’t produced in their brief NFL tenures.

Tennessee has plenty of 2018 salary space (seventh-most in the league, at present), but general manager Jon Robinson isn’t likely to find what he’s looking for on the open market. The Cowboys intend to use the franchise tag on Demarcus Lawrence, while the next-best edge option, Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, will turn 29 years old in May, meaning he’s probably not a fit. While there are several intriguing pass rushers scheduled to become free agents, they’re likely not the type of premier edge players that will immediately affect opposing offenses.

The most fascinating free agent that could be of interest to the Titans is actually on the restricted free agent market. Shaquil Barrett played two-thirds of the Broncos’ defensive snaps a season ago, and while he posted only four sacks, the 25-year-old managed 30.5 pressures. Denver will likely place a second-rounder tender on Barrett, but I wonder if they’ll be able to match a creative offer from Tennessee. Not only does Denver boast far less cap space than the Titans, but general manager John Elway & Co. will likely spend the early days of the free agent period trying to woo Kirk Cousins or another free agent quarterback into joining his club.

The Broncos have botched the restricted free agent process in the very recent past: in 2016, Denver assigned running back C.J. Anderson the original round tender when a second-round offer would have cost just $900K more. The Broncos ultimately matched a Dolphins offer sheet, but Elway completely misread Anderson’s market from the outset, and ended up paying a financial price.Shaquil Barrett (vertical)

If the Titans craft an offer to Barrett that includes a hefty base salary or roster bonus designed to eat up 2018 cap space, and officially hand that offer to Barrett on the first day of free agency, how will the Broncos react? At a time when they’ll be searching for a signal-caller, possibly fielding trade offers for wideouts Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders, and attempting to keep another RFA (center Matt Paradis), the Broncos may be blindsided yet again.

If a Barrett acquisition proves unrealistic, the Titans will still have the option of perusing the unrestricted free agent market. I’ve previously mentioned Aaron Lynch (49ers) and Jeremiah Attaochu (Chargers) as potential additions for clubs in need of upside at the edge position, and the Titans could show interest. Lynch, notably, ranked fifth in the NFL with 34 pressures as recently as 2015, and if he can keep his weight down, he’d be a viable reserve option for Tennessee. With an eye toward youth, the Titans may also consider Cardinals outside linebacker Kareem Martin, who offers 56 games worth of experience and is only 26 years old. Chris Smith (26) flashed in the 2017 preseason with the Bengals and is now freely available. Matching any of these younger defenders with veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees could result in success.

The draft will offer yet another avenue for the Titans to acquire a pass rusher, but a top heavy class of defensive ends/linebackers means Tennessee might not have a shot at a blue-chip prospect at the end of the first round. Josh Norris of Rotoworld sent Sam Hubbard to the Titans in his most recent mock draft, but there are legitimate concerns about the Ohio State product’s athleticism. Perhaps Tennessee gets lucky and sees Marcus Davenport (UTSA) or Harold Landry (Boston College) slip, but if not, the club will have to be comfortable selecting a player with off-field concerns such as LSU’s Arden Key, or wait until Day 2 and pick up someone like Kansas’ Dorance Armstrong, whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls the draft’s biggest sleeper on the edge.

2) Bring in a complement to Derrick Henry: The Titans are fully expected to release veteran running back DeMarco Murray this offseason in a move that will save the club $6.5MM in both cash and cap space, and while the club and new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur will turn over the rushing attack to second-year back Derrick Henry, Tennessee will need to find a pass-catching back to pair with its bruiser.

LaFleur was the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2017, and Los Angeles attempted to bring in a back — Lance Dunbar — to spell Todd Gurley on the cheap. Gurley proved he didn’t really require breathers on the way to being named Offensive Player of the Year, and Dunbar was never able to stay healthy, but the Rams at least had the idea in mind. Henry has shown the ability to become an every-down back, a runner who become the foundation of an offense, but I’d expect Tennessee to pursue at least one other RB to play alongside him.Read more

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Atlanta Falcons

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Atlanta Falcons, who finished with a 10-6 record before being bounced in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $21,650,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $12,900,000
  3. Desmond Trufant, CB: $12,900,000
  4. Jake Matthews, T: $12,496,000
  5. Alex Mack, C: $11,050,000
  6. Robert Alford, CB: $9,600,000
  7. Andy Levitre, G: $8,375,000
  8. Mohamed Sanu, WR: $7,400,000
  9. Ryan Schraeder, T: $6,500,000
  10. Derrick Shelby, DE: $5,750,000

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $12,035,622
  • 26th pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DE Vic Beasley

Three Needs:

1) Bring in at least one starting guard: The problem with boasting a solid core on both sides of the ball is that cap space gets eaten up quickly. The Falcons project to only have ~$12MM in available salary cap room this offseason, and even if the club makes a few predictable cuts, it’s difficult to see their funds rising much above $20MM. But with the small amount of cap space that Atlanta does possess, it should target a clear upgrade on the interior of its offensive line.Andy Levitre (Vertical)

The Falcons could potentially need two new guards to play alongside All-Pro center Alex Mack, depending on what they do with incumbent left guard Andy Levitre. Acquired from the Titans prior to the 2015 season, Levitre has been a solid starter in Atlanta, but he’s coming off a relatively down campaign that ended with a trip to injured reserve. The Falcons can create $7MM in cap savings by releasing Levitre this offseason, but they could also approach the 31-year-old about a contract restructure that reduces his cap charge and keeps him on the roster.

At right guard, 2016 sixth-round pick Wes Schweitzer played nearly offensive snap for the Falcons, but graded as just the No. 54 guard among 77 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus, which assigned Schweitzer poor marks in both the run and pass game. The majority of writers at The Falcoholic — SB Nation’s excellent Falcons blog — don’t believe Schweitzer will return as a starting guard in 2018, but Atlanta does have other possible solutions on its roster. 2017 fourth-rounder Sean Harlow could be in for an increased role, as could Ty Sambrailo, whom the Falcons acquired from the Broncos last September.

While Atlanta would surely love to poach Andrew Norwell from the division rival Panthers, the club won’t be able to afford a guard that is expected to reset the positional market. However, given that the Falcons are certainly in win-now mode, the perfect guard fit may have just become available: Josh Sitton will now become a free agent when the market opens on March 14 after the Bears declined his $8MM option for 2018. Sitton will be 32 years old when next season gets underway, but that shouldn’t scare Atlanta, which is squarely in its contention window and won’t be adverse to inking a veteran player to a multi-year deal. A two-year, backloaded pact that allows Sitton to collect that $8MM he won’t be earning from Chicago could make sense for both sides.Senio Kelemete (Vertical)

If Sitton lands elsewhere, the Falcons should still have their pick of veteran guards, and the sheer volume of available experienced players at the position could potentially reduce prices overall. The Saints’ Senio Kelemete has proven himself all over the offensive line, and would offer Atlanta positional versatility at positions beyond guard. Zach Fulton (Chiefs) is only 26 years old and offers 46 starts worth of experience. Alex Boone, Spencer Long, Matt Slauson, Brandon Fusco, Jahri Evans, Josh Kline…the Falcons’ primary weakness has a ton of free agent panaceas, so the club shouldn’t struggle to find a resolution.

A draft selection is also on the table for the Falcons, but keep in mind that general manager Thomas Dimitroff has only selected one interior offensive linemen — Peter Konz in 2012 — prior to the third round. Atlanta either doesn’t value the guard position very highly, or believes it can find competent options later in the draft. Perhaps the Falcons take a shot on Texas’ Connor Williams (who many teams are viewing as a guard) if he slips to the bottom of the first round, but they’ll probably look to find a mid-round gem instead. Wyatt Teller (Virginia Tech), Sean Welsh (Iowa), and Skyler Phillips (Idaho State) are among the collegiate players who could be available at the beginning of Day 3, per Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com.

2) Reorganize the defensive line: Only eight 4-3 defensive tackles saw at least 70% playtime in 2017, and the Falcons boasted two of them in Grady Jarrett and Dontari Poe. Jarrett is one of the better interior defenders in the NFL and is now eligible for an extension, but Poe is scheduled to hit free agency in March. While Atlanta could pursue an extension with Poe in the coming weeks, it might be worthwhile to allow the 27-year-old to reach the open market and assess his value before re-opening talks.Dontari Poe (Vertical)

Poe was one of the top defensive tackles available in 2017, but even after garnering interest from multiple clubs around the league, he was forced to settle for a one-year, $8MM deal. Now that he’s now a year older and has nearly 800 more snaps worth of wear, will teams now be willing to commit to Poe for the long term? Poe will likely be targeting something in the Johnathan Hankins range (three years, $27MM, with $10MM in guarantees), but it’s possible he’s not able to reach that payday. The Falcons should hold off on re-signing Poe in the hopes that his price comes down as a result of a weak market.

If Poe is not retained, Atlanta will likely use an early round draft pick on a new defensive tackle. Josh Norris of Rotoworld and Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com had the same idea in their most recent mock drafts, as both sent Florida’s Taven Bryan to the Falcons at pick No. 26. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com provides the best prospect profiles around, and he says the 6″4, 290-pound Bryan “flashes disruptive potential that is waiting to be fully cultivated” but notes the ex-Gator’s “below-average power and contact balance.” The 2018 draft class offers a good number of interior options, so perhaps Vita Vea (Stanford), Da’Ron Payne (Alabama), Harrison Phillips (Stanford), or Maurice Hurst (Michigan) could fall to the end of the first round.Read more

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Cleveland Browns

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Cleveland Browns, who have established the NFL futility standard by being just 1-31 over the past two seasons. There are many areas in need of upgrades for a franchise that went 0-16 last season, but one obviously dwarfs the rest.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Joe Thomas, T: $14,250,000
  2. Kevin Zeitler, G: $12,400,000
  3. Jamie Collins, LB: $12,400,000
  4. Myles Garrett, DE: $6,911,876
  5. J.C. Tretter, C: $6,250,000
  6. Christian Kirksey, LB: $6,200,000
  7. Joel Bitonio, G: $6,000,000
  8. Jamar Taylor, CB: $5,275,000
  9. Kenny Britt, WR: $4,875,000 (dead money)
  10. Danny Shelton, DT: $3,723,895

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $110,849,880
  • First and fourth picks in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DT Danny Shelton

Three Needs:

1) End a complex QB search with a franchise player: Browns fans know the list of failed quarterback investments by now that there’s no point in rehashing them. But the Sashi Brown-era decisions to trade out of the Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson draft slots did not bode well for the organization. It has a chance to rectify those missteps in April, but the decision won’t be easy.

Unlike past years that featured No. 1-selecting teams making choices between two players — Jared Goff-over-Wentz (2016), Jameis Winston-over-Marcus Mariota (2015), Andrew Luck-over-Robert Griffin III (2012) — the Browns could possibly have four passers on their radar at No. 1. No draft has featured three QBs go in the top five since 1999, which is unique symmetry considering the Browns’ Tim Couch decision set their rebooted franchise on this course.

The Browns are expected to decide between Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield at No. 1. But the franchise is sending some mixed messages about its plans at American sports’ premier position.

Cleveland attempted to unload one of its three second-round picks for Alex Smith, who almost certainly would have been good enough to keep whomever the team selects at No. 1 on the bench throughout the 2018 season. Is that how a franchise that went 0-16 last season and 2-43 in its past 45 games should be operating? Now with A.J. McCarron on the UFA radar, might the Browns be considering him again after being willing to fork over two Day 2 picks for him at the trade deadline?

A bridge quarterback could make sense here. If the Browns go with ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr.’s choice and pick Allen, who is considered raw but a player potentially possessing the highest upside of the ’18 passer crop, they would probably need a veteran to take the snaps while the Wyoming prodigy learns. The same could be said for Darnold or Mayfield, with Rosen being viewed as the readiest pro prospect of this quartet. But the Browns approaching this QB market like they need a multiyear starter doesn’t seem logical.

The Browns’ insane amount of cap space would put them in position to outgun any Kirk Cousins suitor, but that doesn’t really make much sense given Cousins’ preferences and the team’s trajectory. Even a deal for McCarron, who could be viewed by some as a Cousins backup plan, may be too steep for this franchise’s purposes. If the Browns do go after a starter-level veteran as Hue Jackson has said he may want (possibly to increase his chances at keeping the HC job beyond next season?), it should be a player whose market did not meet expectations. Injury-risk Vikings Sam Bradford or Teddy Bridgewater come to mind here.

For their short-term mentor type, it would make sense for the Browns to target a veteran with experience but someone who doesn’t profile as a multiyear starter. It’s difficult to envision, barring an over-the-top offer, a starter-level UFA choosing the Browns over a comparable proposal from another team. But high-level backup types like Chase Daniel — a John Dorsey addition while he was in Kansas City and Smith’s backup for three years — or Matt Moore would make sense. An agreement with a nearing-retirement player like Ryan Fitzpatrick or a reunion with Josh McCown, would make more sense as a groomer for the No. 1 pick-to-be.

None of these options are as exciting as Cousins or even McCarron. But if the team is going to pick a quarterback at No. 1, over-investing here to help only the 2018 team seems short-sighted, as the 2017 Bears’ plan showed.

Since the sports media landscape has expanded significantly since the Couch/Donovan McNabb/Akili Smith trio went Nos. 1-3 in 1999, the next two-plus months should be flooded with headlines involving Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield. As of now, not much appears to be separating these passers, making the Browns’ decision all the more interesting. After misfiring on Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel, Cleveland will face pressure to get this one right.

Darnold’s been mentioned as a Browns pick, with Yahoo.com’s Charles Robinson reporting multiple evaluators believe it will be a Darnold-or-Mayfield decision by late April. The USC product left two college seasons on the table to leave but has been deemed a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick since his redshirt-freshman campaign. He’s viewed as a better athlete than Rosen but a player whose delivery might need some ironing out before becoming a starting professional passer.

Rosen may be the safest pick from a pure passing standpoint, but the outspoken former UCLA centerpiece hasn’t made a secret of the fact Cleveland might not be the best place for him. And his interviews and visits may be critical leading up to the draft. But the polished signal-caller would probably be the least likely of these quarterbacks to require a bridge passer, and with Jackson wanting to have such a setup in place, maybe the Browns do opt for one of the others over the outspoken signal-caller. However, the longtime offensive coach has been reportedly enamored with the ex-Bruin. Again, it’s too early in the process to make a prediction here.

A high-level personnel executive — one that said in early 2016 the Browns would be set for 15 years if they took Wentz — told cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot that Allen-to-Cleveland would be the most likely scenario unfolding. Allen has been compared to Wentz and Ben Roethlisberger, and the high-ceiling/possibly low-floor talent will obviously be a player to monitor here as the workout season commences.

Mayfield’s path may be the most interesting. The most accomplished college quarterback of this group, the Heisman Trophy winner has turned off some execs with his attitude and drawn Manziel comparisons from scouts and execs. He also is seen as more of a developmental player and one whose 6-foot stature could steer Dorsey and Jackson elsewhere.

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2018 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

Starting today, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags is open, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.

As our list of important dates for the 2018 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those tags doesn’t come until Tuesday, March 6. Usually, when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will wait until that deadline approaches to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.

Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2018’s franchise tag period. The NFL hasn’t officially announced the salary cap figure for 2017, but OverTheCap.com recently projected the 2018 franchise tag salaries based on a presumed $178MM cap. Here are the expected non-exclusive franchise tag amounts:

  • Quarterback: $23.09MM
  • Running back: $11.72MM
  • Wide receiver: $16.23MM
  • Tight end: $10.36MM
  • Offensive line: $14.54MM
  • Defensive end: $17.52MM
  • Defensive tackle: $14.53MM
  • Linebacker: $15.47MM
  • Cornerback: $14.88MM
  • Safety: $11.08MM
  • Punter/kicker: $5.06MM

(For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject.)

Here’s our look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities:

Virtual Locks:

  • Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: Last offseason, things got pretty weird between the Steelers and Bell. Just before the deadline to extend franchise tagged players, the Steelers believed that they had agreed on a five-year offer worth roughly $60MM. Ultimately, Bell backed out because he did not find the guarantees and cash flow to be to his liking. Soon after, friend and former teammate Ike Taylor said that Bell wanted a contract that reflects his performance as both a No. 1 back and a No. 2 receiver – something in the neighborhood of $15MM per year. Le'Veon Bell (vertical) This year, Bell topped his 75 catch total with 85 grabs, so one has to imagine that his position hasn’t changed. Despite some retirement threats in January, Bell has indicated that talks are going better this time around. Here’s where things get interesting – the Steelers say that today (Feb. 20) is the “deadline” for a long-term deal to get signed. If not, they’ll go ahead and franchise tag him for a second consecutive season, leaving Bell with a one-year, $14.5MM pact when factoring in the 20% increase. Will Bell buckle and sign a deal that isn’t quite to his satisfaction? In theory, the running back could abstain from offseason activities and even reboot retirement talk in an effort to get the Steelers to cave and abide by the real extension deadline on July 16.
  • Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Cowboys: It has already been reported that the Cowboys will go ahead and tag Lawrence to prevent him from reaching free agency. Once that happens, you can expect the cash-strapped Cowboys to get to work on an extension that will smooth out the $17.5MM cap hit for defensive ends. There won’t be much drama as to whether the Cowboys will or won’t tag Lawrence, but the subsequent multi-year negotiations will be interesting to watch. Lawrence had a rocky first three seasons in the NFL, but he stepped up big in his contract year with 14.5 sacks. The Cowboys must be willing to pay Lawrence like a top DE, but they may insist on protections like an easy escape hatch or heavy roster bonuses in the event that he is injured or suspended.

Strong Candidates:

  • Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams: As our own Micah Powell explained on Sunday, Watkins is a candidate for the tag with mutual interest on both sides in continuing their union. Committing major dollars to Watkins is dicey, however, given his injury history and his somewhat disappointing stat line in 2017. If the Rams let Watkins hit the open market, they’ll risk losing him to other teams with more wiggle room under the salary cap. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. And in a weak crop of free agent wide receivers, Watkins could clean up and leave the Rams without an obvious replacement.Sammy Watkins (vertical)
  • Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars: Tagging Watkins will be a tough call for the Rams and the Jaguars have a similarly difficult decision to make when it comes to Robinson. Robinson played only three snaps in 2017 before going down with a torn ACL and he didn’t set the world on fire in 2016. However, his 2015 performance – 80 catches, 1,400 yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns – makes it hard for Jacksonville to let him walk. In theory, the Jaguars could re-sign fellow free agent Marqise Lee and let Robinson go, but Robinson is clearly the more talented of the two and one could argue that Lee’s late-season emergence was fueled by advantageous matchups. It’ll be pricey, but the Jaguars are suddenly in position to win and they can’t afford to let one of their best weapons bolt.

Toss Up:

  • Kyle Fuller, CB, Bears: Frankly, I’m conflicted on this one. I’m sure Bears GM Ryan Pace can relate. Fuller turned in a strong rookie campaign and an excellent contract year, but he was a victim of the sophomore jinx and an unfortunate knee injury which cost him his entire season as an NFL junior. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com hears that Fuller will not be with the Bears this year. But, considering that Fuller graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 22 ranked cornerback and the position is already a major area of need for the team, the Bears have to at least think about tagging him for $14.88MM. Kyle Fuller (Vertical)
  • Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Lions: Ansah has performed pretty well over the last two seasons, despite playing through some serious pain. The Lions probably aren’t thrilled about extending a one-year, $17.5MM tender to Ansah, but pressure generating edge rushers like him are at a premium. Consider this: Ansah tallied 12 sacks last year despite knee, ankle, and back ailments. Only seven players topped that total: Chandler Jones, Calais Campbell, DeMarcus Lawrence, Everson Griffen, Cam Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, and Joey Bosa.
  • Case Keenum, QB, Vikings: Is one year as an elite quarterback enough to justify the franchise tag? Maybe, but the Vikings have options at their disposal, including two other pending free agents already on the roster. If the Vikings can’t retain Keenum or Bradford or Bridgewater with a reasonable multi-year deal between now and free agency, they can use their mountain of cap space to get involved in the Cousins sweepstakes.
  • Sheldon Richardson, DT, Seahawks: The Jets had both Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson under contract, but they could only afford to pay one of the two defensive linemen. Clearly, they chose wrong. For all of the headaches that Richardson gave the team, the five-year, $86MM deal given to Wilkerson wound up being a monumental mistake and will continue to be an albatross for the Jets even after they cut him this offseason. The Seahawks gave up a second-round choice and wide receiver Jermaine Kearse to get Richardson – will they make the same mistake and let him get away? Perhaps not, but it would also be a major gamble to tag him at $14.5MM with limited cap space and other holes to address. The best course of action here may be to try and work out a fresh deal without the franchise tag as a floor for Richardson’s camp. If that fails and the two sides can’t come to terms, the Seahawks can at least collect a 2019 compensatory pick.

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Franchise Tag Candidate: Sammy Watkins

The Rams pulled off a blockbuster move leading up to the 2017 season, trading defensive back E.J. Gaines and a second-round pick in 2018 to the Bills in exchange for former first-round receiver Sammy Watkins and a sixth-round selection in 2018. "<strong

The move was a mixed bag for Los Angeles. On the one hand, Watkins led the team with eight receiving touchdowns, averaged 15.2 yards per reception and helped the Rams post the No. 1 scoring offense in the league. On the other hand, however, the fourth-year wideout made only 39 receptions on the season and ranked fourth on the team with 593 yards. The thought is that the receiver will benefit of a full offseason with the high-powered offense.

“I just think he got on a roll with the guys that [Jared Goff] had during OTAs, and once a guy is used to throwing it to someone else, he throws to his guys,” Watkins said. “It’s just part of the game where you need more time, or maybe another year.”

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Watkins would like the remain with the Rams and that they would like to have him back. His proficiency on vertical routes opens up the middle of the field for chain movers like Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, and frees up space in the flats for Todd Gurley. What could hold the team back from tagging the explosive wideout is twofold. First, the cost to franchise tag a receiver is projected to be $16.2 MM, according to overthecap.com. That’s a hefty price to pay for a receiver who has missed 12 games in the last three seasons and didn’t show much in 2018. The second reason is that the Rams are also debating placing the franchise tag on safety Lamarcus Joyner. That would only cost Los Angeles a projected $11 MM.

In 2018, Pro Football Focus rated Watkins the No. 33 receiver in the NFL with a grade of 76.2, tying him with Ted Ginn. The site also published a piece on the receiver, detailing how his touchdown rate — 11.43 — is almost impossible to replicate. From the in-depth article:

So, from 2007 to 2016, 60 players had a 10-percent touchdown rate on 50-plus targets. Of those 60, two (2012-13 Danario Alexander and 2013-14 Marvin Jones) did not play at all the next season. So 58, then. Those 58 players averaged 10.8 touchdowns on 87.12 targets (12.7 percent). A year later, that same group averaged 5.5 touchdowns on 83.8 targets (6.8 percent). Essentially, guys who score touchdowns at a 10-percent rate one year see that rate cut in half the next.

There is no doubting the talent Watkins possesses. If he can recapture and build on his success from his Buffalo days, there is no doubt the Clemson product has the potential to be an 80-catch, 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown receiver in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

As detailed earlier on Pro Football Rumors, receiver is not one of the Rams’ most pressing needs entering the 2018 offseason. With Woods, Cupp and the emerging Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles appears set with plenty of talent at the position. With a projected $51 MM in cap space, however, the team could afford to bring back Watkins for another year to see if Watkins can live up to his projected playmaker status coming out of college.

The choice is a boom-or-bust one for the Rams. Do they think he is likely to emerge as a No. 1 pass catcher in a potent attack with a full season working with Goff in the books? Or do they think that 2018 is the beginning of a trend rather than an outlier?

 

PFR Glossary: Franchise/Transition Tags

Tuesday will mark the first day that teams can apply the franchise tag to free-agents-to-be for 2018. While no clubs have designated franchise players yet, there will likely at least a handful of players receiving the tag before the March 6 deadline, so it’s worth taking an in-depth look at what exactly it means to be designated as a franchise player.

Essentially, the franchise tag is a tool that a team can use to keep one of its free agents from freely negotiating with rival suitors on the open market. Designating a franchise player means tendering that player a one-year contract offer. The amount of that offer varies from year to year and from position to position, and also differs slightly depending on what sort of specific tag the team employs. Here’s a breakdown of the three types of franchise/transition tags:

Exclusive franchise tag:

  • The amount of the one-year offer is either the average of the top five highest-paid players at the player’s position in the current league year or 120% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is greater. The top five highest-paid players at the position are determined once the free agent signing period ends in May, so the exact amount isn’t known until then.
  • The player isn’t allowed to negotiate with other teams.
  • The player and his team have until July 15 (or the first business day thereafter, which falls on Monday July 16 this year) to work out a multiyear agreement. After that date, the player can only sign a one-year contract.
  • The exclusive tag is generally only used for extremely valuable free agents, such as franchise quarterbacks.

Non-exclusive franchise tag:

  • The amount of the one-year offer is determined by a formula that includes the salary cap figures and the non-exclusive franchise salaries at the player’s position for the previous five years. Alternately, the amount of the one-year offer can be 120% of the player’s previous salary, if that amount is greater.
  • The player is free to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet with another team, his current team has five days to match the offer.
  • If the offer is not matched, the player’s previous team will receive two first-round draft picks as compensation from the signing team.
  • As is the case with the exclusive franchise tag, July 15 (which, again, falls on July 16 this year) represents the deadline for a multiyear agreement.
  • Due to the attached compensatory picks, the non-exclusive franchise tag is generally sufficient for free agents — few rival suitors are willing to give up multiple first-rounders in order to sign a free agent to a lucrative deal, so there’s not much risk for a team to give up exclusive negotiating rights.

Transition tag:

  • The amount of the one-year offer is either the average of the top 10 highest-paid players at the player’s position in the previous league year or 120% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is greater.
  • The player is free to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet with another team, his current team has five days to match the offer.
  • If the offer is not matched, the player’s previous team does not receive any compensatory draft picks.
  • Because it does not include any draft compensation or exclusive negotiation rights, and is only slightly more affordable, the transition tag is rarely used.

The exact amounts of these tags won’t be known until the salary cap number for 2018 is announced, and even then, the exclusive franchise tag amount won’t be established immediately. However, OverTheCap.com has a breakdown of the projected non-exclusive figures, ranging from around $5.06MM for a punter or kicker all the way up to $23MM+ for a quarterback. We already know that the Cowboys intend to use the tag on defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, with an eye on hammering out a long-term pact before the deadline. Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell also appears to be a very likely candidate for the designation. Others in the franchise tag mix include Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson, Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins, and Panthers guard Andrew Norwell.

Here are a few relevant details on franchise tags:

  • Each year, the period for teams to designate franchise players runs from the 22nd day before the new league year begins, right up until the eighth day before that new year. In 2018, that means February 20 to March 6, with the 2018 league year set to start on March 14.
  • A team can withdraw a franchise or transition tag at any time once when the free agent period begins, but it would immediately make the player an unrestricted free agent, allowing him to sign with any team.
  • If a player is designated a franchise player for a third time, the amount of his one-year offer is equal to the exclusive franchise salary for the highest-paid position (QB), 120% of the five largest prior-year salaries at his position, or 144% of his previous salary. That’s why, for instance, the Rams won’t franchise cornerback Trumaine Johnson this offseason — it would be his third straight franchise tag, so he’d be eligible for roughly $20MM for 2018.
  • Teams are allowed to designated one franchise player and one transition player per offseason. A team can also designate two transition players if it doesn’t designate a franchise player, but can’t designate two franchise players.
  • Restricted free agents can be designated as franchise players.
  • If a player chooses to sign the one-year franchise tender, his salary is essentially guaranteed. The CBA notes that if a team releases the player due to a failure “to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition,” the team may recoup his salary. However, a franchise player released due to poor performance, injury, or cap maneuvering will receive his full salary.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier entry by editor emeritus Luke Adams.  Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Joel Corry and OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.

2018 Top 3 Offseason Needs Series

Over the last few weeks, Pro Football Rumors has been taking a closer look at the 2018 offseason on a team-by-team basis. Our Top 3 Offseason Needs series focuses on each club’s most glaring roster issues, free agents, potential cap casualties, positions of possible focus, and other issues facing teams this winter.

Just in case you missed our preview for your favorite team, we’re rounding up all of our Offseason Needs pieces in this post. We have several more teams to examine before free agency officially gets underway on March 14, so if your team isn’t linked below, be sure to keep a close eye on PFR — it’ll be coming soon.

Here are the links to our 2018 Top 3 Offseason Needs pieces to date:

AFC East:

AFC North:

AFC South:

AFC West:

NFC East:

NFC North:

NFC South:

NFC West:

PFR Originals: 2/11/18 – 2/18/18

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Poll: Who Will Sign Kirk Cousins?

With less than a month until free agency begins, Kirk Cousins looks to be — barring an 11th-hour Redskins franchise tag he would fight — close to signing a long-term contract with the team of his choice.

It’s an incredibly unique situation, and teams with disparate profiles figure to make runs at signing the 29-year-old quarterback. Rebuilding teams, contending teams and operations that would seemingly be contenders if supplied a quarterback are going to pursue Cousins. So, where will he go?

The Jets and Browns are going to have the most money to chase Cousins, and the former makes sense as a destination. New York surprised many last season by winning five games and finishing well off the pace for the No. 1 pick, which many predicted the rebuilding team would secure. The Jets could have more than $90MM in cap space after a few sensible roster moves, and despite their troubles in recent years, could make a case they are a young team who could build a long-term foundation around Cousins.

Cousins has said repeatedly that after making more than $44MM the past two years he wants to play for a contending team. The Browns, though, have a staggering amount of cap space at $110MM-plus. They could sell a free agent QB on their ability to construct a foundation, but their past does not inspire much confidence. And this, by just about every indication to this point, seems like the year they draft a quarterback.

The Bills made a surprise run to the playoffs last season, but Brandon Beane said upon being hired he doesn’t plan to make many high-cost free agent signings. Considering this figures to be the most expensive free agent in NFL history, it’s difficult to envision a Bills push for Cousins. And Tyrod Taylor may not be completely out of the picture yet.

The Broncos and Cardinals are in similar positions as recent contenders who have fallen off the pace a bit, and neither will have the cap space to outflank the Jets or Browns. Both saw quarterback play lower their ceilings last season, and the Cardinals saw their longtime starter retire and his backups’ contracts expire. Denver has both Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian under contract but has made no secret about wanting to upgrade — via free agency or the draft — with that desire presumably being centered around complementing the core players remaining from the Super Bowl season.

Both the Broncos and Jets are rumored to be gearing up for entrances into the Cousins sweepstakes, and the Bovada sports book has these two as the early frontrunners. However, both the Vikings and Jaguars fit the profile of franchises that could use Cousins as a possible springboard to a Super Bowl. How serious are they about this, though?

The Jaguars may have complications because of Blake Bortles‘ wrist surgery. The embattled starter not being able to pass a physical come mid-March will guarantee his $19MM fifth-year option salary and cloud a potential Cousins pursuit. Jacksonville’s current plan is to keep Bortles, but is a chance at Cousins too tempting to avoid?

The Vikings would make sense as well but may opt to stick with Case Keenum via franchise tag. However, Cousins has proven more than Keenum, and although he would make for a costlier expense, Minnesota being on the doorstep of its first Super Bowl berth in 40-plus years may make ditching their 2017 setup for Cousins a worthwhile gamble. The Vikings do have several core players entering contract years, which could make a near-$30MM-AAV Cousins accord complicated. Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter are four who fit that profile. How much will that factor into a Cousins push?

So, where does Cousins end up?

Does he stick to his winning-situation statements and avoid teams who have struggled in recent years, or can the Browns or Jets submit an offer he can’t refuse? Can the Broncos make a sales pitch that their history surrounding a UFA QB with championship-caliber talent would be worth sacrificing a bit of cash, or is their nucleus’ window closing to the point Cousins looks elsewhere? How serious are the Cardinals and Bills in this derby? And how much would the Vikings or Jaguars entering the fray change the outlook of this high-stakes process? Take PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Who will sign Kirk Cousins?
Denver Broncos 35.46% (2,345 votes)
New York Jets 20.67% (1,367 votes)
Minnesota Vikings 17.90% (1,184 votes)
Cleveland Browns 9.48% (627 votes)
Arizona Cardinals 8.62% (570 votes)
Jacksonville Jaguars 3.95% (261 votes)
Buffalo Bills 2.18% (144 votes)
Another team 1.74% (115 votes)
Total Votes: 6,613