Broncos To Use Franchise Tag On Von Miller
The Broncos plan to use the franchise tag on linebacker Von Miller and will then look to work out a long-term deal with him, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter). This news does not come as much of a surprise, as Jason Cole of Bleacher Report passed along a similar report at the end of last month, but as Miller is the best player eligible for unrestricted free agency this offseason, any reports regarding his potential fate remain highly relevant.
Miller has posted double-digit sack totals in four of his first five seasons in the league. In 2013, he was suspended six games for attempting to cheat a drug test, and he tore his ACL later in the season, limiting his on-field action to just nine games and his sack total to just five. But as Rapoport observes (via Twitter), Miller has matured a great deal since he decided to hire a life coach–a decision that implies a certain degree of maturity in and of itself–and at this point, it appears as though the star pass rusher’s off-field troubles are a thing of the past.
Denver, of course, might also consider using the franchise tag on Brock Osweiler, who did enough in his first shot as a starter this season to suggest that he could be the team’s long-term answer at the quarterback position. Apparently, however, the Broncos are more confident they can work out a contract with Osweiler prior to the new league year than Miller, who would have a case to become the league’s highest-paid defensive player if he were to reach the open market. In 2015, Miller graded out as the second-best edge rusher in the league out of 110 eligible players, per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). And, unlike many elite pass rushers, Miller is not a liability in coverage, and he is terrific against the run, which only enhances his already considerable value.
The projected 2016 franchise tag value for linebackers is just north of $14MM. In negotiating a long-term deal with Denver, Miller would likely look at Justin Houston‘s recent six-year, $101MM deal with Kansas City–which included $52.5MM in guarantees–as a benchmark. Marcell Dareus, in his recent extension with the Bills, received $60MM in guarantees, a record for a defensive player that provides a reasonable target for Miller. As former NFL agent Joel Corry wrote back in November, Miller’s next contract will probably have an average annual value in the neighborhood of $18MM. Assuming the Broncos do, in fact, tag Miller, they will have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal.
AFC Mailbags: Jets, Patriots, Ravens
It’s Saturday morning, and that means ESPN.com’s NFL writers are opening their mailbags and answering questions from readers. We’ve compiled some of the more notable answers below…
- When it comes to the Jets own free agents, Rich Cimini believes the team should make re-signing quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson and defensive tackle Damon Harrison a priority. On the other side, the writer can’t envision linebackers Demario Davis and Calvin Pace or running back Chris Ivory returning.
- With uncertainty surrounding the Patriots receiver depth, Mike Reiss explored several free agents who could help the team. The writer points to Bengals wideouts Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, as well as Leonard Hankerson, Rishard Matthews, and Anquan Boldin.
- While the Ravens could certainly use a playmaker on defense, Jamison Hensley doesn’t believe the team will sign Von Miller. The talented linebacker is a free agent, but Hensley is convinced he’s going to return to the Broncos.
- Hensley also believes the Ravens will end up staying pat with the sixth pick of the draft, but he notes that general manager Ozzie Newsome has previously shown a willingness to trade back.
West Notes: Von Miller, Cardinals, 49ers
If Von Miller were to reach the open market, he would likely be looking to become the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player, according to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link), who points to Ndamukong Suh‘s six-year, $114MM deal with the Dolphins as the one Miller would like to match or exceed. As Cole notes, there would be plenty of teams with interest in the outside linebacker if he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
However, the odds of Miller hitting the open market look pretty slim. Even though the Broncos have other key free agents that could be candidates for the franchise tag, including Brock Osweiler and Malik Jackson, Denver is expected to use that tag on its star pass rusher, says Cole. That doesn’t mean Miller won’t sign a long-term deal this offseason, but it would have to be either with the Broncos or with a team willing to give up two first-round picks to land him, so his leverage will be limited.
Here’s more from around the NFL’s West divisions:
- The Cardinals‘ top priority this offseason will be improving their pass rush, and GM Bruce Arians said on Arizona Sports 98.7 that he doesn’t expect to make an impact addition in free agency, says Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com. That means that the team will likely target a pass rusher early on in the draft.
- Within his article, Urban notes that if a player like Miller were to avoid the franchise tag and reach free agency, it could change the Cardinals‘ stance. While that’s unlikely to happen, I wonder if Arizona might be willing to consider an offer sheet for the Broncos pass rusher even if he gets franchised — parting with two first-round selections wouldn’t be as significant a blow for a team like the Cardinals, whose first-rounders won’t be particularly high picks. Teams are typically hesitant to pursue other teams’ franchised players, not wanting to part with those picks, and I doubt the Cardinals would seriously go after Miller if he’s franchised. For a pass rusher of his caliber though, it’s at least worth considering.
- While the 49ers have the cap space and low payroll necessary to be very aggressive in free agency, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap doesn’t expect the team to splurge in March. Within his preview of San Francisco’s offseason, Fitzgerald suggests it would make sense for the Niners to lock up defensive lineman Ian Williams to a three-year contract and cut linebacker Ahmad Brooks.
NFL Pro Bowlers In Contract Years
The NFL announced its Pro Bowlers for the 2015 season on Tuesday night, and while those rosters will certainly undergo some changes in the coming weeks – as players with injuries or on Super Bowl teams bow out and are replaced by alternates – it’s worth noting that several players in this initial crop are in contract years, and will be eligible for free agency this winter.
Currently, there are eight players in contract years among the Pro Bowlers, and not all of them are players you might expect. When we ranked the top free agents of 2016 earlier this month, we placed Bears wideout Alshon Jeffery second overall, but Jeffery didn’t get a Pro Bowl nod, partly due to the injuries that have slowed him down this season, and partly due to the star-studded group of receivers he was up against.
Similarly, our list of this offseason’s top 10 potential free agents included a pair of left tackles, Russell Okung of the Seahawks and Cordy Glenn of the Bills. However, given the strong group of left tackles that are locked up to long-term deals – including Tyron Smith (Cowboys), Jason Peters (Eagles), Joe Thomas (Browns), and others – neither Okung nor Glenn could crack the initial Pro Bowl roster.
Here are the eight potential free agents who earned Pro Bowl berths:
- Eric Berry, S (Chiefs)
- Doug Martin, RB (Buccaneers)
- Von Miller, OLB (Broncos)
- Reggie Nelson, S (Bengals)
- Josh Norman, CB (Panthers)
- Mike Tolbert, FB (Panthers)
- Muhammad Wilkerson, DL (Jets)
- Charles Woodson, S (Raiders)
Berry, Miller, Norman, and Wilkerson earned spots on our top-10 list, and each of those four standout players should be in line for either the franchise tag or a lucrative long-term contract. However, the extension cases for the other four players on this list aren’t quite to cut-and-dried.
Woodson, of course, has an expiring contract, but isn’t expected to sign another one, having announced earlier this week that he’ll retire after the season. That takes him out of the extension equation entirely.
Martin is having an excellent bounce-back season in Tampa Bay, and is the most logical candidate to receive the biggest free agent deal for a running back this offseason. As we saw last winter though, not many running backs sign massive free agent contracts, and 2015’s biggest deal – DeMarco Murray‘s – won’t exactly encourage teams to invest heavily at the position. So there’s a ceiling on how much Martin will earn this winter, despite his Pro Bowl berth.
Nelson and Tolbert are interesting cases. Nelson’s counting stats (an NFL-best eight interceptions) and Pro Football Focus grades (10th among safeties) suggest he’s had a very strong year, but he’ll also be entering his age-33 season, so it’s fair to question whether he’s deserving of a contract in the range of the ones that Berry and perhaps Eric Weddle will sign.
As for Tolbert, his Pro Bowl nod comes at one of the league’s least-valued positions, and he’s also now on the wrong side of 30, which is generally bad news for running backs. I expect he’ll draw interest from plenty of teams if the Panthers don’t lock him up, but as a 30-year-old fullback, his earning potential is limited.
One more player worth mentioning is Browns center Alex Mack. Technically, Mack still has three years remaining on his contract, but he’ll have the opportunity to opt out this winter, and coming off a Pro Bowl season, there’s a good chance he’ll take advantage of that option.
Ultimately, these eight players – plus Mack – aren’t likely to get a huge boost to their annual salaries on their next contracts simply because they made the Pro Bowl. In fact, Tuesday’s Pro Bowl announcement may very well have a more tangible impact on players with Pro Bowl bonuses in their current contracts.
Still, you can bet that the representatives for these potential free agents will be sure to point to this year’s Pro Bowl roster to help make their case that their clients are among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions.
Sunday Roundup: Payton, Lacy, Osweiler
As Week 13 gets underway in full force, let’s take a look at some news and notes from around the league:
- The Saints will not release head coach Sean Payton, but the team is warming to the idea of trading him for draft picks, per Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports. New Orleans though, would not deal Payton to a team he does not wish to coach, and Payton would not sign an extension with any team that does not appeal to him.
- 2015 has been nothing short of a disappointment for Packers RB Eddie Lacy, and his on-field struggles are just one cause for concern. Per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (article via Conor Orr of NFL.com), Green Bay is troubled by Lacy’s off-field behavior–Lacy was, of course, disciplined for a curfew violation Wednesday night–and the team in fact cut fellow RB Alonzo Harris and did not resign him to the practice squad because he is a close friend of Lacy’s and the Packers apparently believe Harris is a bad influence on their star back.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com examines the type of deal that Broncos QB Brock Osweiler might command in the offseason. The Broncos may offer him a contract with an AAV of roughly $12MM–which is what Nick Foles is earning with the Rams–but assuming Osweiler finishes the regular season with a 6-1 or 5-2 record as a starter, he would have no reason to accept such an offer, as there would be plenty of teams willing to shell out much more than that in free agency. Instead, Denver may be forced to extend Von Miller and use the franchise tag–which it planned to use on Miller–on Osweiler.
- In a separate piece, Fitzgerald examines the 2016 class of free agent defensive ends.
- Although he lost the opportunity to finish the season as the Browns‘ starting QB several weeks ago, Johnny Manziel has been told by the club that he will start again this season, according to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen. When that will be, however, is anyone’s guess.
- After failing in his attempts to purchase the Bills, Jon Bon Jovi is still attempting to buy an NFL club, and La Canfora writes that Bon Jovi, along with a number of other potential suitors, is paying close attention to the Titans, a team that other owners believe could formally come for sale in the spring or fall as the Adams family continues to sort through tax and estate issues.
- Texans right guard Brandon Brooks, who has dealt with a number of stomach ailments over the past year, experienced nausea this morning at Ralph Wilson Stadium and went to a Buffalo-area hospital for further evaluation, per Aaron Wilson of The Houston Chronicle. Needless to say, Brooks was scratched from Houston’s game with the Bills this afternoon.
- Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee tweets that the 49ers have not yet determined if they will move rookie WR DeAndre Smelter off the NFI list. The deadline to do so is tomorrow, and the team’s decision could be impacted by its injury situation after today’s clash with the Bears.
Breer’s Latest: Dolphins, Gronk, Cowboys, Texans
Dan Campbell‘s decision to jettison both his coordinators, with OC Bill Lazor being the second to go, as an interim coach likely stemmed from the tough-minded instructor’s dismay at the Dolphins being referred to as a “finesse team in a power division,” Albert Breer of NFL.com reports.
Miami ranks 27th in rushing yards per game but sixth in yards per carry at 4.6 and attempted just 23 combined runs the past two games. This led to a sense that Lazor was losing his players, per Breer.
Lazor and Ryan Tannehill began to have a less-than-ideal QB-OC relationship, and Breer now notes Campbell will take a more involved role in the Fins’ offensive approach. So, Lamar Miller will probably see more touches going forward.
Here are some more notes from the veteran NFL scribe.
- Rob Gronkowski‘s league-high five offensive-pass interference penalties stem from teams alerting officials to the Patriots‘ brand of pick routes against an increasing amount of man coverage, with Gronk’s size making separation at route stems noticeable. Defensive coordinators are torn on the degree of the All-Pro tight end’s level of infraction, with one saying “He pushes off on every play” and another categorizing the physical performer’s penalties as a product of his size. “It just looks extreme with him, because of size and strength. A 180-pound dude pushing off is different [than] a 260-pound dude pushing off,” the anonymous DC told Breer. Another coordinator falls in the middle of these characterizations, noting the Patriots’ volume of pick routes makes it logical they should be on the receiving end of the most OPI flags.
- With Tony Romo set for his age-36 season in 2016 and coming off more severe collarbone trouble, the Cowboys will explore taking a quarterback in the first round and signing a veteran, Breer reports. Romo being the starter for the foreseeable future gives the Cowboys some flexibility here by not having to reach for a player they don’t think can take the reins.
- The Los Angeles relocation project continues to point toward the Chargers and Rams, with Breer noting Dean Spanos carries the political capital in the owners’ eyes and Stan Kroenke possessing the finances to make this transition work.
- Bill O’Brien‘s cultivating a reputation as a players’ coach in leading the Texans, permitting open social media use and organizing a 12-player leadership council, Breer notes. Houston’s now tied for first in the AFC South with Indianapolis, but as far back as the Texans’ blowout loss in Miami in late October, players were behind O’Brien. “He’s not the problem. Very cool coach to play for and everyone enjoys the way he treats us,” one Texan told Breer after that 44-26 defeat.
- In projecting franchise tag figures for next year, Breer also gives predictions of players potentially being tagged. Moving past long-rumored names like Von Miller and Muhammad Wilkerson, NFL executives told Breer players like Josh Norman, Janoris Jenkins, Russell Okung, Mike Daniels and Kirk Cousins are tag candidates.
AFC Notes: M. Williams, Reich, Broncos, Jets
There are only 10 NFL players who will have higher cap hits than Mario Williams in 2016, and eight of those players are quarterbacks. As such, Mike Rodak of ESPN.com thinks it would be wise for the Bills to give serious consideration to moving on from the standout defensive end in the offseason. Buffalo could use the cap room, and simply releasing Williams would give the club much more flexibility than trying to restructure his contracts.
Here’s more from around the AFC:
- Chargers offensive coordinator Frank Reich, who received consideration for a couple NFL head coaching positions last winter, interviewed this week for the head coaching job at the University of Maryland, according to Don Markus of the Baltimore Sun.
- Even if Brock Osweiler continues to have success for the Broncos down the stretch, the quarterback could likely be signed on a multiyear deal worth about $10MM per year, Mike Klis of 9News suggests in his latest mailbag. In Klis’ view, there’s virtually no chance that Von Miller doesn’t get the franchise tag from the Broncos.
- When Osweiler took over as the Broncos‘ starting quarterback, Troy Renck of the Denver Post thought the team may look to bring back James Casey as a fullback. However, he concedes that adding a fullback would be a luxury for Denver at this point.
- With Brandon Marshall having emerged as the “go-to guy” for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Costello of the New York Post writes that the Jets‘ acquisition of the veteran receiver is looking like a steal for general manager Mike Maccagnan.
- New Patriots slot wide receiver Damaris Johnson will probably factor into the mix in 2016 if things go well, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com tweets. Johnson inked a two-year deal with the Patriots on Tuesday and he’s ostensibly being brought aboard for his return skills.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
AFC Notes: Gronk, Hightower, Broncos, Bengals
After checking in on a few items from out of the NFC earlier this afternoon, let’s shift our focus to the AFC and round up the latest….
- The MRI on Rob Gronkowski‘s knee revealed only a minor knee strain, according to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald (Twitter link). The star tight end will likely be good to go in a week or two, which is great news for the Patriots.
- The Patriots also got relatively good news on linebacker Dont’a Hightower, who is week to week with his knee injury, per Dianna Marie Russini of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Russini adds that Hightower will be re-evaluated within the next few days.
- The Broncos suddenly have a contracts problem on their hands for 2016, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, who notes that the team will only be able to rely on the franchise tag to retain one of Brock Osweiler and Von Miller. Osweiler has won his first two starts as a Bronco, but it seems a little too early to assume he’s worthy of a significant investment. After five more regular season games and at least one playoff contest, Denver should have a much better idea of Osweiler’s value.
- The Bengals worked out six defensive backs today, including cornerback Bradley Fletcher, tweets Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com. According to Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post (Twitter link), cornerback Chykie Brown was also a part of that group. With Darqueze Dennard out for the season, and other members of the secondary banged up, Cincinnati seems to be keeping an eye out for possible depth additions.
AFC West Notes: Broncos, Miller, Chargers
Here’s a look at the AFC West:
- Gil Brandt of NFL.com ran down six pending free agents who should be retained by their current teams and six who should be allowed to walk away. Both Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller and Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler landed in the keeper pile. Miller, 26, is a cornerstone of the Broncos’ elite defense and he has compiled 54 sacks since going No. 2 overall in the 2011 draft. Osweiler, meanwhile, hasn’t really gotten to show his stuff, but Brandt writes that he is a solid athlete with a ton of potential.
- Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is likely to be promoted from the Chargers‘ practice squad to the active roster by Saturday afternoon, Michael Gehlken of U-T San Diego writes. Williams is likely to get the opportunity with veteran Malcom Floyd still nursing a torn labrum. For his part, Williams is thankful for everything he has learned from Floyd. “It’s been awesome, especially on the field,” Williams said of learning behind Floyd. “I can see how to get in and out of my breaks from another guy who has long strides. I just try to copy everything that he’s been doing, whether it’s on the field or off the field. It’s been awesome.”
- Both the Alleghany County sheriff and prosecutor believe that Raiders linebacker Ray-Ray Armstrong was not acting with malice when he taunted a police dog earlier this month, as The Associated Press writes. That bodes well for Armstrong, who theoretically could have been facing third-degree felony chargers. Police alleged that Armstrong lifted his shirt, pounded his chest, and barked at a police dog before telling its handler to let it off the leash. The local D.A. will consult with authorities in California, but it doesn’t sound like much will come of those talks at this point.
West Notes: Chancellor, Bennett, L.A.
In last night’s game vs. the Chiefs, Broncos pass rusher Von Miller recorded his first sack of the 2015 season, making him the third-fastest player in NFL history to reach 50 career sacks — Miller did it in just his 58th career regular season game (Twitter link).
Under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Miller looks primed for another big year, which makes Denver’s recent extension with Demaryius Thomas all the more important. By extending Thomas in July, the Broncos freed up their 2016 franchise tag to potentially use on Miller, if the two sides don’t reach a long-term extension. With his contract set to expire at season’s end, the 26-year-old looks like one of the most obvious franchise-tag candidates in the league for next offseason.
Here are a few more items from out of the league’s two West divisions:
- Peter King of TheMMQB.com can’t see Seahawks GM John Schneider caving to Kam Chancellor, even if Seattle loses again in Week 2. King also thinks it’ll be a while before the club seriously consider trading its star safety, who is continuing his holdout.
- Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett told reporters on Thursday that, while he’s also unhappy with his contract, his situation is different than Chancellor’s, since he can’t afford to roll the dice on a holdout with a wife and three kids to support. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk observes, Bennett’s situation is also different because he has a more legitimate gripe about his contract, which was signed when he was still a part-time player. After he signed the deal, Bennett was elevated into more of a full-time role, which suggests he should be paid more.
- Andy Dolich of CSNBayArea.com examines the possibility of an NFL team relocating to Los Angeles by breaking down demographics and the interest level of football fans in the L.A. market. Of course, the Raiders, Rams, and Chargers are all viewed as potential relocation candidates.