NFC Notes: Bucs, Cousins, Paea
Let’s take a quick swing around the NFC after rounding up a few AFC rumors earlier today:
- An article from Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com could have been construed to indicate that Buccanneers RB Charles Sims is a long-shot to make the team’s 53-man roster, but Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times says he would be surprised if Sims is cut, especially before Doug Martin returns from suspension in Week 4 (Twitter link). Auman adds (via Twitter) that Smith’s article probably meant to suggest that Blake Sims, not Charles, is a long-shot to make the roster. Indeed, Smith’s piece discusses how well-stocked Tampa Bay is at running back, and he suggests Charles Sims is one of the reasons the Bucs can field a solid RB group even without Martin. Smith later confirmed Auman’s interpretation via Twitter.
- In addition to running back, the Buccaneers also have intriguing position battles at slot corner, safety, and kicker, as Roy Cummings of FanRagSports.com writes.
- Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com examines the long-term outlook for the Redskins, and it’s a fairly promising one, at least on offense. He looks at a possible snapshot of the offense going into training camp in the year 2020, and of the 11 players he mentions — most of whom are good, very good, or at least have a lot of upside — 10 of them are already starters. While it would be foolish to expect all of those players to be in Washington in 2020, the fact remains that the team does have a talented offensive core that has the potential to stay around for a long time.
- Tandler tweets that there is a slim chance the Redskins and QB Kirk Cousins can work out a multi-year deal by the July 17 deadline, but he confirms what we have known all along, which is that Cousins’ long-term future with the club probably won’t be settled until March 2018.
- The Cowboys signed Stephen Paea to a one-year, $2MM deal this offseason, and though the big DT struggled the past two years in Washington and Cleveland, Dallas believes he can return to form in 2017. As Brandon George of the Dallas Morning News writes, Paea will be reuniting with Rod Marinelli, whom he worked under during his best years in Chicago, and his skill-set is well-suited to the Cowboys’ 4-3 defense.
- Paul Perkins will be the Giants‘ starting running back this year, but as James Kratch of NJ.com writes, Perkins will be more of the lead back in a committee rather than a bell-cow. Kratch says Shane Vereen will get his share of carries, and Orleans Darkwa, Wayne Gallman, and Shaun Draughn all figure to be in the mix as well.
Make-Or-Break Year: Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill may be working with the most talented offensive weapons he’s ever had at his disposal in 2017, and if he wants to remain under center for the Dolphins for the long haul, he will have to make the most of those weapons. Yesterday, we looked at a discussion among ESPN’s AFC East contingent as to whether Miami should stick with Tannehill or start looking for his replacement, and while the consensus is that Tannehill is a solid quarterback whose contract looks more and more like a bargain with each passing year, the ESPN scribes do not appear to have much faith that Tannehill can bring a title to South Beach. Indeed, ESPN’s Bills reporter, Mike Rodak, believes the Dolphins need to begin preparing for their next quarterback now.
And it’s hard to blame him. It took Tannehill five seasons to post a winning record, and his skill-set and statistical output to this point in his career reasonably invoke the old adage that is trotted out for quarterbacks like Jay Cutler and Alex Smith: just good enough to lose.
Of course, Tannehill is not solely responsible for the Dolphins’ mediocre record during his tenure. After all, it’s not as though the team has been stocked with talent that was held back by substandard quarterback play. Rather, the roster has been average at best and Tannehill, whose performance has been average to a little above-average, has not been able to enhance it. But as the talent surrounding him slowly improves, it is fair to question whether Tannehill has enough ability to turn his team into a true championship contender.
What makes a conversation about Tannehill’s long-term future with Miami particularly interesting now is the way his contract is structured. After 2017, the only guaranteed money on Tannehill’s deal is $5.525MM of his 2018 salary that is currently guaranteed for injury and becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2018 league year. That means that, if they really want to, the Dolphins could part ways with Tannehill after this season and the dead cap hit would be fairly minimal while the savings would be significant.
The problem is that Miami does not have a young quarterback on the roster that is pushing for playing time, and free agency is almost never an answer when it comes to quarterbacks. The 2018 rookie class may boast a fair amount of quarterback talent, so if Tannehill struggles in 2017, it would behoove the team to draft a signal-caller in the early rounds of next year’s draft and groom him behind Tannehill for a year or so (Tannehill is under club control through 2020).
So while it would be a surprise to see Tannehill somewhere other than Miami in 2018, the 2017 season will go a long way towards determining his future prospects with the Dolphins.
AFC Notes: Dolphins, Pats, Dupree
Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill believes the team’s 2017 offense will be the best he has ever played with, and James Walker of ESPN.com agrees with him. On paper, Miami does boast a great deal of talent at the skill positions, but as Walker observes, the Dolphins still have some depth problems. Jay Ajayi was a revelation in 2016, but what happens if he should go down with an injury, or if he needs to be spelled from time to time as the season progresses? Could Kenyan Drake or Damien Williams step up? And can Leonte Carroo be counted on to complement Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, and DeVante Parker, or even carry the load if one of those players should get hurt? Will Mike Pouncey stay healthy for a full season. Of course, every team can ask itself similar questions, but for the Dolphins’ offense to take a step forward this year, it will need to stay healthy or else get contributions from unlikely sources.
Now for more from the AFC:
- As Mike Reiss of ESPN.com observes, the Patriots don’t have many major position battles, but one to keep an eye on is at backup tight end. Of course, Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen are entrenched in the top spots, but given Gronk’s health issues, the No. 3 TE could end up playing a significant role. As it currently stands, Matt Lengel and James O’Shaughnessy will compete with UDFAs Jacob Hollister and Sam Cotton for the job.
- Steelers LB Bud Dupree was drafted with the thought that he could become the next great Pittsburgh pass rusher, and given the way he performed down the stretch in 2016, the team believes the third-year pro is ready to make the leap. As Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review points out, Dupree did not start his first game in 2016 until Week 14 — he began the year on injured reserve and was slowly eased back into action — but in that Week 14 matchup, Dupree played all but one snap and racked up 2.5 sacks (he ended the regular season with 4.5 sacks). He also recorded a half-sack in the playoffs while playing all but three snaps, so he appears primed for a breakout in 2017.
- The Browns finished 1-15 last season, and most think they will be lucky to get to six or seven wins in 2017, but Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com says head coach Hue Jackson is not on a short leash. The team’s front office realizes it was again looking at a multi-year overhaul when it hired Jackson, and Jackson will get a chance to see it through (assuming he wants to, of course).
- Some are wondering why Chad Henne is still on the Jaguars roster even though he does not have a pass attempt since 2014, but Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union has a succinct answer. O’Halloran says, “Henne has experience in many offenses. He has experience working with new coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. And he has accepted being a sounding board for Blake Bortles. That’s why [he] is here.” Of course, as we heard last month, second-year player Brandon Allen could unseat Henne with an impressive preseason.
Extra Points: Elflein, Giants, Browns
The Vikings selected Ohio State center Pat Elflein in the third round of this year’s draft as part of the team’s offseason push to revamp its offensive line (Elflein’s selection marked the first time since 2012 that Minnesota used a pick in the top three rounds on an offensive lineman). Elflein has an excellent pedigree and certainly has the talent to become a top center in the league, but as Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune writes, Nick Easton served as the starting center during the later spring practices this year, including the three-day minicamp. However, Vensel says Elflein will get his chance in training camp, and he will need to make an early impact if the Vikings’ O-line is to become a strength this season.
Now for more notes from around the league:
- D.J. Fluker has been lining up exclusively at right guard this offseason for the Giants, but James Kratch of NJ.com does not see any chance that the former Charger will unseat John Jerry at the position. There is always the possibility that Fluker moves back to right tackle, where he played during his first two seasons with the Bolts, but Kratch says Big Blue is very optimistic about Bobby Hart and will give him every opportunity to earn the right tackle job. In fact, Kratch does not foresee a true competition shaping up at right tackle this summer, and there is a good chance the Giants simply cut Fluker and save $1.5MM in the process.
- In the same piece, Kratch says he does not expect the Giants to add a veteran cornerback at this point, and he also observes that, as much as everyone is rooting for UDFA Travis Rudolph because of his personal story, it’s going to be difficult for him to crack a loaded WR corps. Rudolph, Roger Lewis, and Darius Powe will likely be competing for, at most, one receiver spot, and that’s only if New York elects to keep six wideouts.
- The Jaguars have spent over $800MM on free agents since 2011, but they only have 22 wins to show for it, as Roy Cummings of Florida Football Insiders writes. One of the problems, according to Cummings, is that all of that spending and the turnover it engenders creates uncertain leadership, and even leadership voids, in the locker room. This year, Jacksonville parted ways with a number of defensive veterans, and Roy Miller, who was a part of that purge, believes the departure of those players could mean that the Jags will once again be lacking leadership. Indeed, defense was not the team’s problem last year, and Cumming seems to think there may be something to Miller’s admittedly biased theory.
- Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer says Browns head coach Hue Jackson would like to name a starting QB prior to the August 10 preseason opener, but that he may need to see some live action first, especially now that rookie DeShone Kizer has narrowed the gap between himself and Cody Kessler.
- Tight end Phazahn Odom and linebacker Matt Galambos were the only two prospects to receive a contract from the Steelers after Pittsburgh’s tryout camp in May, and while their odds of cracking the roster may be slim, Jerry DiPaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review makes the case for Odom. After all, the Steelers’ TE depth chart is pretty thin after the team cut Ladarius Green earlier this year, and while Jesse James will serve as the starter, his backups, Xavier Grimble and David Johnson, are hardly world-beaters. As such, the door might be open just a hair for Odom, who is an intimidating physical presence at 6-8, 251 pounds, but who is still a bit raw.
Matt Jones Hires Drew Rosenhaus
Redskins RB Matt Jones, whose agent, Hadley Engelhard, asked Washington to release his client last month, has changed agents. Jones will now be represented by one of the biggest names in the sports world, Drew Rosenhaus, according to Rosenhaus himself (via Twitter).
Jones, of course, is not a part of the Redskins’ plans for 2017, so it made sense for Engelhard to approach the team about cutting him. It is unclear what — other than Rosenhaus’ name value and Engelhard’s inability to convince Washington to release Jones — might have triggered Jones’ decision, but now it will be Rosenhaus’ job to secure a change of scenery for his newest client.
Jones was once the Redskins’ starting back, but he has been bypassed by Robert Kelley. This year, Oklahoma product Samaje Perine figures to see a good percentage of the carries and Chris Thompson will return as the team’s pass-catching specialist out of the backfield. That leaves little-to-no room for the talented but fumble-prone Jones.
Washington also tried to trade Jones in the spring but did not find much of a market for his services. The 2015 third-round pick is still under club control on his rookie deal through 2018.
Extension Candidate: Xavier Rhodes
The Vikings’ defense finished 2016 ninth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), third in yards allowed per game, and sixth in points allowed per game. In short, Minnesota boasted a pretty strong defense, and there is a lot of credit to go around for that performance.
Cornerback Xavier Rhodes deserves a great deal of that credit. Rhodes, whom the Vikings selected in the first round of the 2013 draft, turned in the best season of his career in 2016, which earned him his first Pro Bowl nod. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics were fairly kind to his overall effort, as Rhodes graded out as the 29th-best corner in the league out of 111 qualified players, but PFF really loved his performance against the run, where he graded as the top CB in football. Whatever issues he had in coverage he helped to make up for with his five interceptions, one of which he returned 100 yards for a score.
Minnesota picked up Rhodes’ fifth-year option last year, so he is currently under contract through 2017, and he is set to earn a tidy $8.026MM this season. But that doesn’t mean Rhodes wouldn’t be open to a long-term deal, and the Vikings do have a history of signing key players to extensions during contract years. Indeed, we heard back in February that the team was expected to begin negotiating a new contract with Rhodes, and while there have been no public reports of such negotiations, it does not appear that either side has put a deadline on contract talks. As such, it could be that a deal gets hammered out at some point during the season.
Former NFL agent Joel Corry says Desmond Trufant‘s recent extension with the Falcons could serve as a barometer for Rhodes’ negotiations with Minnesota. Trufant, whose total contract value is currently the third-highest in the league among cornerbacks — and who was drafted three picks ahead of Rhodes — pulled down a five-year, $68.75MM deal from Atlanta, including $41.53MM in guaranteed money. In addition to being just about the same age, Trufant and Rhodes are similarly talented players, both solid in coverage and stout against the run, so it would not be a surprise to see Rhodes land a contract that matches or exceeds Trufant’s pact.
Since he became a full-time starter in 2014, Rhodes has also been pretty durable. He started all 16 regular-season contests in 2014 and 2015, and after missing the first two weeks of 2016 with a knee injury, he started and finished the remaining 14 games. The Vikings have about $13.5MM in cap space at the moment (under the Rule of 51), so theoretically they could even front-load a Rhodes extension to give themselves some wiggle room down the road. In any event, expect to see Rhodes and fellow Pro Bowler Harrison Smith sharing Minnesota’s defensive backfield for the next few years.
AFC Notes: Patriots, Luck, Henne
The Patriots‘ best chance to replace the bruising and punishing running of LeGarrette Blount, who was a key part of the team’s success over the past few seasons, could come from a surprising source. In his first attempt to predict the Patriots’ 53-man roster, Jim McBride of the Boston Globe says that UDFA LeShun Daniels, Jr. might be the best-equipped of New England’s stacked running back group to fill Blount’s void. McBride does not believe Daniels will make the team out of camp, writing that he is more likely a practice squad candidate at the moment, but the future is bright for the 6-foot, 225-pounder, who excelled in his senior season at Iowa.
Now for more from the AFC:
- Patriots wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell was kept on the sideline during spring practices, but Mike Reiss of ESPN.com says there is nothing to worry about. Mitchell has a more extensive injury history than many second-year players, and New England is handling his workload accordingly to ensure they can keep him healthy for the long haul.
- We heard earlier this week that Andrew Luck may not be ready for training camp, leading some to wonder if he is also in danger of missing the start of the regular season. Kevin Bowen of Colts.com, however, does not believe that’s the case. Bowen says that if the team was really concerned about Luck’s availability for Week 1, the team would have brought in a veteran QB to compete with backup Scott Tolzien.
- Alex Marvez of NFL.com tweets that Chargers linebacker Nick Dzubnar is completely healed from the ACL tear that prematurely ended his 2016 season. Dzubnar has primarily served as a special teams contributor during his first two years in the league, but he has performed very well in that role.
- Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union takes his first crack at predicting the Jaguars‘ 53-man roster, and there do not seem to be any major surprises there. One point of intrigue is the quarterback position, as O’Halloran speculates that second-year signal-caller Brandon Allen, who was good enough in camp and the preseason last year to convince Jacksonville to keep a third QB for the first time since 2013, could unseat longtime backup Chad Henne.
- Earlier today we took a look at a few notes on the Steelers and Browns.
Community Tailgate: Jets’ Long-Term QB Solution?
As Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported several days ago, Jets quarterback Christian Hackenberg exceeded expectations in minicamp and has narrowed the gap between himself and presumptive starter Josh McCown. Gang Green, of course, is in full tank mode, and the team wants to give Hackenberg a chance to show what he can do in 2017, even if McCown ultimately opens the season as the starting signal-caller.
That does not mean, however, that the Jets are married to their Hack for the long haul. As Cimini wrote this morning, New York’s rebuilding plan is centered around its selecting a quarterback from the allegedly QB-rich 2018 draft. Players like USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, and Wyoming’s Josh Allen are generating the most buzz at the moment, though all are underclassmen and may choose to stay in college in 2018. Nonetheless, assuming (as most do) that the Jets will be bad enough in 2017 to have an early pick in next year’s draft, they could have their choice of elite quarterback prospects.
From a prospect standpoint, Hackenberg does not have the same upside as the above-mentioned collegiate passers, so there is plenty of doubt as to whether he can be a legitimate long-term starter in the league. Further complicating matters, as Brian Costello of the New York Post opines, is that it will be difficult to truly evaluate Hackenberg this year because of the fact that he really has no proven pass catcher to throw the ball to now that the team has cut ties with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Costello, like Cimini, believes Hackenberg showed significant improvement this spring, but if he struggles in 2017, it will be hard to argue that he was given a fair shake.
But now we want you to weigh in on this matter. How do you see the Jets’ long-term quarterback situation shaping up? Do you think Hackenberg will seize control of the job, thereby allowing the team to pursue other options in the 2018 draft (which was mentioned as a distinct possibility several weeks ago)? Or do you think Hackenberg will struggle to produce or just not play well enough to convince the Jets that he is the answer under center?
Or maybe you see an entirely different scenario unfolding. Maybe you see the world through green-and-white glasses and think McCown will keep the team in contention this year, which would be a pleasant surprise for Jets fans but which would not help them in their search for a long-term solution at quarterback. Or do you think Bryce Petty will emerge from the shadows and throw his hat in the ring? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.
North Notes: Golson, Browns, Lions
In the past few drafts, the Steelers have made a concerted effort to bolster their defensive backfield, an area that has been something of a weakness in the second half of the Ben Roethlisberger era. The team selected a cornerback on the first or second day of the last three drafts (Cam Sutton in 2017, Artie Burns in 2016, and Senquez Golson in 2015), and safety Sean Davis was selected in the second round of the 2016 draft. Pittsburgh’s secondary was improved last season, but after it was gashed by the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, the Steelers’ coaching staff plans to implement more man coverage in 2017, as Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Dulac says the team is confident that Sutton and Burns can handle those concepts, but the staff is openly pessimistic about Golson, who has not played in a preseason or regular-season game in his two years in the league due to injuries. Golson, who is at least healthy enough to practice at the moment, seems to be on the verge of losing his roster spot altogether, and he may need to prove his worth on special teams just to make the club.
Now for more from the North:
- Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman sit squarely atop the Browns‘ wide receiver depth chart, but the No. 3 job is wide open, and there are a number of second-years players who could fill that role. However, Dan Labbe of Cleveland.com says the team hopes Ricardo Louis, last year’s fourth-round selection, can be the guy. Though Louis appeared in all 16 games for the club last season, he caught just 18 passes for 205 yards, but given the big-play potential he flashed at Auburn, Cleveland will give him every opportunity to earn a key role this summer.
- Speaking of Coleman, Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com says he will be eased into the grind of training camp, and he may not be a full-go from the first day of camp. The same is true of 2017 No. 1 overall selection Myles Garrett, who suffered a left lateral foot sprain in minicamp.
- Lions safety Miles Killebrew, a fourth-round selection in 2016, was a fixture in the team’s dime package last season, but as Kyle Meinke of MLive.com writes, Killebrew could be in for a much bigger role in 2017. The Southern Utah product is currently listed as the third safety on the depth chart behind Glover Quin and Tavon Wilson, but Meinke believes Killebrew could push Wilson for the starting strong safety job with a solid training camp. As we learned yesterday, the Lions and Quin are discussing a new contract.
- Jake Rudock lost the Lions‘ backup quarterback competition to Dan Orlovsky last season because of Orlovsky’s experience and knowledge of the team’s offense, but now Rudock himself is the player with the experience advantage. As Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com writes, Rudock’s grasp of OC Jim Bob Cooter’s scheme is miles ahead of rookie Brad Kaaya‘s, thereby making Rudock almost a lock for the backup job.
NFC Notes: Maclin, Revis, Newton
We learned earlier today that the Eagles, not the Bills, were the runners-up for Jeremy Maclin‘s services, which came as something of a surprise given last week’s report that Philadelphia did not have interest in reuniting with Maclin. Per Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter links), Eagles head coach Doug Pederson claims he was not being coy when he said the team was not considering Maclin, but that the Eagles did not reach out to Maclin until the weekend, when they contacted him to gauge interest. However, Mike Garafolo of NFL.com tweets the Eagles never really got into a bidding war with the Ravens, who ultimately signed Maclin and who apparently gave him “solid money” to come to Baltimore.
Now for more from the NFC:
- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant tweeted free agent corner Darrelle Revis yesterday and told him to consider signing with the Cowboys, leading some to speculate that the club could be interested in relocating Revis Island to Texas, despite earlier reports to the contrary. Nonetheless, Clarence Hill, Jr. of the Star-Telegram, citing a team source, tweets that there is “nothing going on with Revis.”
- We heard earlier today that Eddie Lacy passed his weigh-in with the Seahawks, which netted him a $55K bonus, but he was not the league’s biggest loser this week. As Todd Archer of ESPN.com writes, Cowboys offensive lineman Byron Bell picked up $150K by weighing in at less than 320 pounds on Monday, and he can earn another $300K if he meets his weight requirements at the start of training camp and the first week of the regular season. And, per ESPN’s Field Yates (via Twitter), if Falcons NT Dontari Poe weighs 340 pounds or less tomorrow, he earns $125K.
- Panthers QB Cam Newton will not throw at this week’s minicamp, but the quarterback is still on schedule with his recovery and is expected to be ready for training camp, as Edward Lewis of NFL.com writes.
- The Saints may be shopping Travaris Cadet, but Josh Katzenstein of the Times-Picayune does not believe they can realistically expect to get any takers, so the team will probably be forced to release him.
- We learned earlier tonight that Rams DT Aaron Donald could miss this week’s mandatory minicamp as he continues to push for a long-term deal.