Poll: Who Will Win The AFC West?
Even though the defending Super Bowl champions are a member of the AFC West, the division’s prospects looked extremely cloudy heading into the 2016 division. In PFR’s preseason predictions, three writers picked the Chiefs to take the division crown, with the Raiders and Broncos picking up two and one vote(s), respectively. Additionally, four of six PFR writers projected an AFC West club to claim a Wild Card berth.
And thus far, the division is still up for grabs — the Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers all rank in the top half of the NFL in DVOA, while Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City all have better than a two-thirds chance of making the postseason, according to Football Outsiders (all statistics current through Week 8). In Week 9, the Chiefs have already posted a victory, the Chargers are leading the Titans, and the Broncos and Raiders will square off in an extremely important Sunday night contest.
Each of the four teams in the division has an area where they could improve, including the two clubs who will play tonight. While Denver’s defense is once again one of the best in the league, its offense ranks just 21st in DVOA. Much of that struggle can be attributed to quarterback Trevor Siemian, but the Broncos’ offensive line play has also been poor. Oakland, meanwhile, has posted excellent offensive numbers, but its defense is giving up more than 410 yards per game, 31st in the NFL.
The Chiefs are using the Denver model (20th in offensive DVOA, ninth in defensive DVOA), and are dealing with an injury to their quarterback, Alex Smith. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been impressive based on raw totals, but on an efficiency basis, the club ranks 29th in the league. 
San Diego’s defense is also playing well, as is Philip Rivers, but the Chargers could use more help from their offensive line, which ranks in the bottom-third of the NFL in both run- and pass-blocking, per FO.
Tonight’s game will have a large impact on both Denver and Oakland’s playoff odds: as Brian Burke of ESPN.com tweets, the Broncos are facing a 15.9% probability leverage (change in chance of making the postseason based on the results of this week’s game), while the Raiders are staring down a 26.2% PL. The Chiefs and Chargers were looking at a 21.2% and 13.6% change, respectively.
So, what do you think? Will Broncos hold on to defend their division title? Will the upstart Raiders upend them? Will the uber-consistent Chiefs take over? Or will the Chargers surprise everyone and storm back to take the crown? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comments section!
Raiders To Prioritize Derek Carr Contract
Derek Carr will be eligible for an extension after the end of the 2016 season, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that the Raiders will indeed prioritize a new deal for their star quarterback in 2017.
Industry sources expect that Carr’s new contract will be in line with the mega-deal that Andrew Luck signed with Indianapolis this summer. Luck received a five-year, $123MM pact from the Colts, and Carr should be able to at least come close to that figure, though former NFL agent Joel Corry wonders if the Raiders will try to convince Carr to accept a “pay as you go” model (Twitter link).
Carr is having a tremendous season for the resurgent Raiders, who are showing rapid improvement under the steady and patient hand of GM Reggie McKenzie. Carr has completed over 66% of his passes this year and has posted a 100.9 quarterback rating, throwing for 17 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He and Amari Cooper have teamed up to form one of the best young quarterback-receiver duos in the NFL, and both players should only continue to get better.
Indeed, Carr has demonstrated marked improvement in each of his first three years in the league, and his gaudy numbers this season, combined with Oakland’s potential return to the playoffs, have thrust him into the middle of the MVP discussion. The good news for the Raiders is that they have managed the salary cap very well in recent years, so they should be able to meet Carr’s contract demands fairly easily.
However, they want to get a deal done quickly not just because they need to lock up Carr long-term, but because they will be facing several other major contract decisions in the near future. Cooper’s rookie deal is set to expire at the end of the 2018 season, and Khalil Mack‘s contract is up at the end of the 2017 campaign.
Latest On Chargers’ Post-Vote Future
San Diego’s seminal vote on Measure C (the Chargers’ downtown stadium referendum) takes place Tuesday, and it’s almost certainly going to fail. But the level at which it does could determine whether or not the Bolts stay in San Diego, Brent Schrotenboer of USA Today writes.
Polls have the measure falling well short of the two-thirds super-majority threshold, but the Chargers could be more enticed to work something out with the city if they receive a 50 percent vote of approval. The team has until Jan. 15 to decide whether or not to accept the Rams’ offer of sharing their stadium in Los Angeles, but the Bolts having essentially no fanbase there complicates that.
“There’s been a lot of talk and speculation about what is a Plan B and what happens under a variety of scenarios,” said Fred Maas, who has served as the point man for the Chargers’ prospective downtown venture, via Schrotenboer. “The truth is, who knows? It’s certainly one off ramp if it’s less than 50%. It may be another off ramp if it’s 51%. It may be another off ramp if it’s 60 or 65%. Who knows? What Dean [Spanos] has said is `Look, it’s going to tell me a lot about how we’ve come along as a community and where things are.'”
San Diego councilman Chris Cate, whom the Chargers went after earlier this year following his stance against their publicly funded $1.15 billion stadium, said the city council would not close the door on working with the team if the measure fails.
“I think [the council] would be open to some type of support [for an alternative stadium plan],” Cate said, via Schrotenboer. “It has to be some type of creative deal. And it may not be the most extravagant thing in the world, but at least something that would work for all parties and allow for something that is not just in the best interest of the team but the taxpayers.”
If the Chargers opt against moving to L.A. by January, that brings a gray area into an equation that now looks like it could be heading there. Otherwise, the franchise’s options are clear: see the measure pass or join the Rams in Inglewood. A California Supreme Court ruling earlier this year dealt a crushing blow to Measure C’s prospects of passing by raising the needed vote percentage from 50 to 66.6. It’s currently polling at around 45 percent.
The state’s Supreme Court could revisit the ruling requiring super majorities for measures like this within two years, per Schrotenboer, which could prompt the stadium measure to be revisited. But that would likely mean the Chargers continuing to play in their undesired current stadium, should they balk on L.A. San Diego’s effort to coax the state Supreme Court to expedite this ruling to provide clarity for this election was denied in August, but another stadium measure (Measure D) is on the ballot this year. However, that just authorizes a stadium for the Chargers with no money being allocated to the project.
So, the Bolts’ situation remains fluid and will continue to be until Spanos decides on Los Angeles.
The league’s own popularity issues could also play a part here, Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times writes. Should Measure C receive less than 50 percent support from voters, the league faces the possibility of two coveted markets losing their teams. Farmer contends the NFL’s image would absorb a bigger hit if two longtime cities endured the fate of St. Louis. Suddenly, support for a Raiders Las Vegas stadium could take a hit among owners if San Diego — the nation’s No. 28 media market compared to Vegas at No. 42 — becomes an available destination.
After all the effort the Chargers and Raiders put toward finding their own solutions following their Carson stadium pursuit’s shortcoming, it could still conceivably come down to which of these teams will join the Rams in L.A. The Raiders would be on the clock next year if the Chargers pass, and if the owners become leery of Vegas due to San Diego losing its team, the Los Angeles option could appeal to Mark Davis, who has shown no desire to continue talks with Oakland.
2016 NFL Trade Deadline Primer
The 2016 NFL trade deadline is just hours away. This is the last chance of the season for contending teams to deal for a key piece for the playoff push and final opportunity for rebuilding clubs to make a future-minded deal. This year, there are a number of players who have been mentioned in trade rumors that could be changing jerseys between now and the 4pm ET/3pm CT deadline.
Naturally, cap room will be as much of a factor for teams as their positional needs. As Albert Breer of The MMQB (Twitter links) outlines, some teams have a great deal of space to work with while others have very little. The Browns, 49ers, Jaguars, and Titans all have enough cap space to acquire just about any contract. The Chargers, Rams, and Vikings, meanwhile, all have less than $1MM of room to work with.
Historically, the NFL trade deadline hasn’t brought a ton of action, but yesterday we saw a surprise blockbuster go down when the Patriots traded linebacker Jamie Collins to the Browns. We just might be in store for more major news today.
Here’s a rundown of the big names that have been mentioned in trade rumors over the past couple of weeks:
Browns OT Joe Thomas: Thomas, a lifelong member of the Browns, has made it clear that he does not want to be traded. Coach Hue Jackson flatly said that the tackle would not be dealt between now and the deadline. Still, rival GMs aren’t so sure that top exec Sashi Brown won’t pull the trigger on a deal anyway. 
The Browns remain winless and it only makes sense that the team would explore dealing Thomas for draft considerations. However, the Browns already have quite a stockpile and they even drew from that surplus yesterday to acquire linebacker Jamie Collins from the Patriots. All month long, there has been talk of Cleveland selling off its parts with an eye on 2017 and beyond. Now, one has to wonder if A. they are still inclined to sell and B. they could even look to acquire name players this afternoon.
The Giants have expressed interest in Thomas, but they get the impression that Cleveland is going to hold on to him. The Vikings, Colts, Seahawks, Cardinals, Broncos, and Patriots could also use some help up front, but it’s not clear which of those clubs have reached out. Previous reports have indicated that the Browns were seeking a second-round choice for the veteran, but teams might have to sweeten the pot further if they are truly leaning towards keeping him.
Browns CB Joe Haden: Teams are reportedly scouting Haden in advance of the deadline. Once regarded as one of the league’s best young corners, Haden has been slowed by injuries in recent years. Any team that would take on Haden and his considerable salary wants to know exactly where he stands with his ankle, hamstring, and other assorted maladies.
At the midway point of the season, Pro Football Focus has Haden ranked as the 29th best corner in the NFL. That indicates Haden is an above-average starter, but not an elite player at the position. Haden is in year two of his five-year, $67.5MM extension and a cornerback-needy team like the Dolphins could explore a deal. But, as with Thomas, it’s not clear if the Browns are willing to sell. Haden is under contract through 2019 and won’t turn 28 until April. There’s not much he can do for the Browns in 2016, but he could still be a vital piece going forward.
In related news, the Browns are reportedly open to trading fellow corner Tramon Williams. The Packers are thin at cornerback and a reunion would make a lot of sense.
OTC: What A Derek Carr Extension Could Look Like
- Neema Hodjat of OverTheCap.com examines what a potential extension for Raiders QB Derek Carr might look like. This is Carr’s third year in the league, so he will be eligible to receive an extension at the end of this season. Assuming he continues to play at a high level, Carr should command a five-year deal worth upwards of $110MM, according to Hodjat. And the Raiders, who have done a terrific job managing the salary cap in recent years, will be able to shell out that kind of money without much hesitation.
Aldon Smith Applies For Reinstatement
Raiders linebacker Aldon Smith has applied for reinstatement, GM Reggie McKenzie tells Vic Tafur of The San Francisco Chronicle. Smith’s one-year suspension formally ends on Nov. 17 and league sources tell Tafur that he is out of rehab. 
“Aldon is doing well,” McKenzie said. “That situation is going to be totally up to the league because he’s been in the program and they’ve monitored him. It’s up to Goodell to say yah, nay or when. And he could say no to everything … that part is out of our hands. The league will take everything into consideration and Aldon will have to meet with [Roger] Goodell at some point.”
McKenzie added that Smith is “working out and getting ready,” though the team is forbidden from contacting Smith per the terms of his ban. Tafur writes that Oakland has kept in touch with Smith through intermediaries, including Smith’s agent.
Smith appeared in seven games for Oakland last season and inked a two-year extension with the team this spring. His $11.5MM deal contains no guaranteed money, so the Raiders can cut bait without financial penalty if Smith cannot stay on the right path.
Raiders’ LV Stadium Hits Potential Snag
The Raiders have been building momentum towards a Las Vegas move, but they could be hitting a snag. Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is not happy with what he perceives as changes to the stadium deal and he is threatening to walk. 
[RELATED: Goodell May Exert Influence In Las Vegas Vote]
“I negotiated to bring in the Oakland Raiders, an NFL football team from Oakland, because they don’t have a stadium there, that I would build a stadium and rent it out to the Oakland Raiders,” Adelson told Reuters’ Ari Rabinovitch. “They want so much. So I told my people, ‘Tell them I could live with the deal, I could live without the deal. Here’s the way it’s gonna go down. If they don’t want it, bye-bye.”
The Raiders’ Las Vegas project took a major leap forward last week when Nevada’s governor OK’d a bill that would increase hotel taxes and reroute those additional funds to the new stadium. Adelson, meanwhile, has pledged up to $650MM toward building the stadium. If Adelson were to pull out, the Raiders and the state of Nevada would have to scramble for a new billionaire partner.
Goodell May Exert Influence In Las Vegas Vote
Roger Goodell still prefers the Bay Area as the Raiders’ long-term locale to Las Vegas, and the commissioner may wield enough power to swing the Raiders’ upcoming relocation vote, Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reports.
Ownership sources told La Canfora the commissioner’s ability to rally support behind causes he feels strongly about shouldn’t be underestimated regarding the seminal vote set likely for early 2017. A matter as significant of a team relocating from a top-five market to the No. 40 market could meet Goodell’s standard for exerting influence.
“Even if this came to a vote early next year,” one source told La Canfora, “I wouldn’t at all discount Roger’s ability to garner 9-12 votes against [a move] if he believes firmly that Oakland is in the best interest of the league.”
The Raiders need 23 additional votes to green-light their long-rumored Vegas move. This news comes after a report earlier this week appeared to see owners softening their stances on a team trying to set up shop in the nation’s gambling mecca. Although most owners’ beliefs on this would-be seminal venture aren’t yet known, Goodell feeling the need to play a key role here could be a sign support is growing.
Mark Davis is also seeking to have this vote as early as possible, but the league looks set to delay it. Davis secured the $750MM in public money quicker than owners expected, and the NFL is trying to catch up in this process. Davis still wants the Raiders to play at the Oakland Coliseum in 2017-18 before hopefully relocating to Vegas in ’19.
The owner is no longer interested in discussing a future in Oakland or Los Angeles, La Canfora writes, but Goodell maintains the league needs to look into what can be salvaged in Oakland as well as research what a Las Vegas move would entail for the league.
“I would expect the league to delay any vote for as long as possible,” one ownership source said. “Mark is adamant that they are gone, but the league isn’t in any rush to bring this to a head.”
The vote that sent the Rams to L.A. and kept the Chargers and Raiders in their longtime markets occurred in January, and Davis wants this expected vote to take place in January 2017, when he’s expected to file for relocation. But that doesn’t look to be on course right now.
Goodell and the NFL have been linked to having discussions with Oakland civic leaders, talks in which Davis is not currently participating. The league is exploring “several stadium options” in the Bay Area, per La Canfora, who continues the theme of pointing out how the NFL is more attracted to the Bay Area’s business infrastructure advantages compared to Las Vegas’.
Owners More Agreeable To Raiders Move?
As a Raiders relocation vote for a second straight year becomes closer to a reality, the stances of many owners around the game aren’t known, creating an air of mystery around this likely forthcoming decision. But some owners have voiced praise for Mark Davis‘ efforts in securing a deal with Las Vegas, potentially opening the door to a better outcome for the owner’s efforts to leave Oakland.
“I completely respect how he’s handled the process over the last year,” Chiefs CEO Clark Hunt said, via Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com, from the owners’ meetings in Houston. “I know he had to be incredibly disappointed in not being one of the teams selected, at least initially, to go to L.A. And I just think the way he’s handled it speaks to his maturity. I think people respect that he’s created another option for himself in Las Vegas.”
Davis’ increasing trust among his peers has led to this process moving forward instead of better-regarded owners having stonewalled the effort, Breer writes. This represents a contrast from how the son of Al Davis was viewed previously in this group. Most owners did not expect Mark Davis to be able to secure the financing when this venture began earlier this year.
Other owners with whom Breer spoke this week were open to the idea of Davis being the owner who breaks through to the Las Vegas market after there was widespread hesitation among them earlier this year regarding the Raiders owner being the one responsible for reintegrating the Los Angeles market. One of them praised Davis’ ability to be able to score the largest-ever public money contribution for an NFL stadium as evidence he could handle the move and his own market.
“He’s gained a lot of respect in the room,” an NFC team president told Breer, “Who else has come up with $750MM in public funding?”
Hunt, interestingly, was not behind a Raiders/Chargers Carson, Calif., joint move earlier this year, instead preferring only one team go to Los Angeles if a relocation was inevitable. Fellow AFC West owner Dean Spanos‘ opinion on Davis moving may be more predictable since the two nearly struck a deal to share a stadium in Carson.
“He’s earned a great deal of respect amongst the owners,” Spanos said, via Breer. “He’s a committed owner. He loves the business. He’s in this for the long haul. And I think he’s gonna be successful in Las Vegas if he gets there, which I think he will. It remains to be seen obviously, but that’s my opinion — he’ll get there.”
Breer still notes a small group of owners are with Jerry Jones and his pro-Vegas stance and a small group have voiced opposition to the Raiders moving from a well-regarded market to a questionable one. But there’s enough unknown viewpoints to could swing the final tally.
The MMQB scribe adds Oakland — which has lost Davis’ interest even as the NFL and city civic leaders remain in talks — is expected to make another push with the help of the NFL, which is still believed to prefer the Bay Area to Vegas. The league plans to conduct a market study of its own to follow up on one Davis conducted recently regarding Vegas’ viability as a long-term NFL city.
Additionally, owners see a Raiders-to-Vegas move as a way to protect the Rams’ brand in Los Angeles since the Raiders have a substantial footprint in L.A. compared to the Chargers, who remain in front of the Raiders in line to move there should their downtown San Diego stadium venture fail. The Bolts having only played in L.A. in 1960 leaves them well behind the Silver and Black in terms of prospective fan support in the city. Davis hasn’t mentioned Los Angeles as an option for the Raiders in months, having been successful in generating a route to Vegas, but that would still theoretically be an option if the Chargers balked and owners voted Davis’ latest relocation proposal down.
NFL Practice Squad Updates: 10/21/16
Today’s practice squad moves:
Chicago Bears
- Signed: FB Paul Lasike
- Placed on practice squad IR: RB Raheem Mostert
Oakland Raiders
- Signed: G Ian Silberman
- Placed on practice squad IR: OT Takoby Cofield
Philadelphia Eagles
- Signed: G Darrell Greene
- Cut: CB Duke Thomas