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PFR Originals: 8/20/17 – 8/27/17

By Dallas Robinson | at August 27, 2017 3:01 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

With the 2017 regular season only several weeks away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered four teams this week:

Offseason In Review: Miami Dolphins

By Dallas Robinson | at August 25, 2017 2:22 pm

The Dolphins were 1-4 last October 9 and looked poised to miss the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season in what would have been a disappointing first go-round for new head coach Adam Gase. Miami rebounded, however, reeling off six straight victories, winning nine of its final 11 games, and finishing with a 10-6 record and a Wild Card berth. Starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill missed the Dolphins’ final three regular season games and their postseason contest with a knee injury, a precursor to another health issue that would cause Miami to re-calibrate in the first week of August 2017.

Notable signings:

Kenny Stills, WR: Four years, $32MM. $16.95MM guaranteed.
Andre Branch, DE: Three years, $24MM. $16.8MM guaranteed.
Lawrence Timmons, DE: Two years, $12MM. $11MM guaranteed.
Jay Cutler, QB: One year, $10MM. $5MM guaranteed. $3MM available via incentives.
Nate Allen, S: One year, $3.4MM. Fully guaranteed.
Jermon Bushrod, G: One year, $3MM. $2.25MM guaranteed.
Ted Larsen, OL: Three years, $5.65MM. $1.75MM guaranteed.
Anthony Fasano, TE: One year, $2.75MM. $1.25MM guaranteed.
Rey Maualuga, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Alterraun Verner, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
John Denney, LS: One year, minimum salary benefit. $40K guaranteed.
Damien Williams, RB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
T.J. McDonald, S: One year, $1.344MM.
David Fales, QB: One year, $690K.

If you took a long weekend near the beginning of August, you may have missed the entire Jay Cutler-to-Miami saga — it happened that quickly. On August 3, Ryan Tannehill, who had missed the end of the 2016 campaign with an ACL/MCL sprain, went down during Dolphins practice, leading the club’s decision-makers to “fear the worst” in regards to their starting quarterback’s health. Just four days later, Cutler was back in the NFL, having un-retired and left his gig as a FOX analyst in order to sign a one-year deal with Miami.

Cutler, of course, was completely ineffective a year ago, posting one of the worst seasons of his career. But just one year prior, working under then Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase, Cutler produced an excellent campaign that included the best quarterback rating and second-best completion percentage of his NFL tenure. In fact, Cutler’s 2015 numbers were remarkably similar to those of Tannehill in 2016. The following table contrasts Cutler and Tannehill’s statistics under Gase in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and the figures are indexed (courtesy of Pro Football Reference), meaning 100 is league average and a higher number is better:

Tannehill was a bit better in 2016 than Cutler was in 2015, but if Cutler can come close to matching Tannehill’s performance from last season, and keep Miami in the top half of the offensive DVOA rankings, the Dolphins would likely be content. If Cutler does reach that level, Miami would be facing several questions next offseason, especially if they have interest in retaining Cutler beyond 2016. The Dolphins, for what’s it worth, can release Tannehill next offseason in a move that would save $15.2MM against the cap (and incur only $4.6MM in dead money). Whether that’s a viable scenario depends entirely on Cutler’s showing, and whether Tannehill can pass a physical next spring.

Cutler will be throwing the ball to an impressive group of wide receivers that includes Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills, the latter of whom re-signed with the Dolphins on a four-year pact. Stills, 25, posted a career-high nine touchdowns last season, and eight of those scores came on receptions of 20+ yards, tying him with Antonio Brown for the most deep scores among pass-catchers. Although pre-free agency rumors indicated Stills could garner upwards of $12MM annually on the open market, Miami inked Stills for only $8MM per season, an annual salary that ranks just 21st among wideouts.

In order for Stills to get deep, the Dolphins’ offensive line will need to hold up better than it did last season, when the unit ranked 21st in adjusted sack rate. Miami believed it could rectify its guard situation on the cheap, and the club didn’t spent much money to upgrade its interior. Jermon Bushrod is back at right guard after finishing 26th in snaps per blown block a year ago, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac, while free agent addition Ted Larsen won’t contribute in 2016 after tearing his biceps, meaning the inexperienced Jesse Davis is now projected to start at left guard. Tight end Anthony Fasano, now in his second stint in South Beach, should be able to help on the edge, as he graded as the league’s No. 1 blocking tight end in 2016, according to Pro Football Focus.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins made a number of curious signings, and that list starts with defensive end Andre Branch. Let’s go back to 2016, when Miami originally signed Branch: he was coming off a season with the Jaguars in which he saw 597 defensive snaps and managed four sacks and 18 hurries. The Dolphins inked Branch to a one-year pact worth only $3MM. In his first season with Miami, Branch improved to 5.5 sacks and 20 hurries, but had to play nearly 200 more snaps to get there. Keeping in mind that he’s now one year older, does the Dolphins’ evaluation of Branch as a $8MM per year player make any sense? Just 12 months after finding a value on the free agent scrap heap, Miami over corrected and made Branch a top-20 edge rusher in terms of annual salary.

Football operations chief Mike Tannenbaum and general manager Chris Grier‘s indefensible decisions continued at the second level, as the signing of former Steelers linebacker Lawrence Timmons was a clear overpay. The 31-year-old Timmons wasn’t linked to any other clubs besides the Dolphins in free agency, so it’s possible Miami was negotiating against itself as it agreed to a two-year deal that includes $11MM guaranteed. Timmons can’t cover anymore, and while some of his pass defense struggles may have been a product of Pittsburgh’s scheme, the Dolphins are going to be disappointed if Timmons is asked to play in nickel packages. Fellow Miami addition Rey Maualuga finished only 11 spots worse than Timmons in PFF’s linebacker rankings, and he signed a minimum salary benefit contract, further exposing the mistake that is Timmons’ deal.

The Dolphins went bargain-hunting in the secondary, signing low-cost free agents such as Nate Allen, T.J. McDonald, and Alterraun Verner. Allen, who served as the Raiders’ third safety last season, figures to start for Miami for the first half of the 2017 campaign as McDonald serves an eight-game suspension. The Dolphins knew McDonald was banned before they signed him, and perhaps saw an opportunity to land a 26-year-old safety with 53 starts under his belt on a cheap deal. Verner, meanwhile, didn’t find a deal until July, but he could play a larger role than expected now that Tony Lippett is lost for the year with a torn Achilles.

Notable losses:

Despite boasting excellent players like Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake, the Dolphins’ defensive line was still a weakness last season, finishing 18th in adjusted line yards and 31st in adjusted sack rate. With an eye towards improving that ranking, Miami began releasing dead weight this spring, cutting ties with Earl Mitchell, Mario Williams, and Dion Jordan. The releases of Williams and Jordan are understandable: Williams was overpaid during his one season with the Dolphins and didn’t offer much at defensive end, while Jordan is one of the larger draft busts in recent memory. Letting Mitchell go is a bit more peculiar, however, especially given that Miami is now on the hunt for a defensive tackle that does exactly what Mitchell did — stop the run. Mitchell didn’t offer any pass rush, but the Dolphins have Suh for that, so cutting a serviceable veteran and creating a new area of need wasn’t the wisest route.

Miami didn’t particularly have a decision to make on safety Isa Abdul-Quddus, as the 2016 free agent addition suffered a serious neck injury near the tail end of last season. IAQ, who was excellent in his first season with the Dolphins, is potentially facing the end of his career, as neck issues aren’t to be trifled with — as of March, Miami wasn’t sure whether Abdul-Quddus would be able to resume football activities. Bacarri Rambo, who played roughly 40% of the Dolphins’ snaps while filling in for Reshad Jones, is also gone, meaning Miami will be without the two safeties who saw the most playing time for the club last year.

On offense, the Dolphins witnessed the loss of two tight ends, Dion Sims and Jordan Cameron. Sims landed one of the more surprising contracts of the free agent period, as he inked a three-year, $18MM pact with the Bears that contains $6MM in guarantees. Sims, 26, has never topped 30 receptions or 300 yards receiving during his four-year career, but the Dolphins reportedly wanted to retain him ever after acquiring Julius Thomas from the Jaguars. Cameron, meanwhile, announced his retirement after suffering four concussions in four seasons. He managed only three appearances and eight receptions in 2016.

Trades:

Acquired a 2018 seventh-round pick from the Jaguars in exchange for T Branden Albert (pick returned to Jacksonville due to Albert’s retirement).
Acquired TE Julius Thomas from the Jaguars in exchange for a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 240).
Acquired DE William Hayes and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 223) from the Rams in exchange for a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 206).
Acquired a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 164; OL Isaac Asiata) and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 194; DT Vincent Taylor) from the Eagles in exchange for a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 166; WR Shelton Gibson) and a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 184; S Nathan Gerry).
Acquired a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 237; WR Isaiah Ford) and a 2018 seventh-round pick from the Buccaneers in exchange for a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 223; DT Steve Tu’ikolovatu).

Jay Cutler isn’t the only player with a history of success under Adam Gase whom the Dolphins acquired this offseason. Tight end Julius Thomas is heading to Miami, as well, after the Dolphins agreed to send a late-round selection to Jacksonville (some initial reports indicated Thomas would be swapped for tackle Branden Albert, but the Dolphins and Jaguars ended up making separate deals involving those players).

Thomas, 29, hasn’t done anything to live up to the five-year, $46MM contract he signed with Jacksonville prior to the 2015 campaign, as he averaged only 38 receptions and 268 yards through two years with the Jags. He posted superb numbers with Gase in Denver, however, including back-to-back seasons with 12 touchdown receptions. Those high-scoring years came in a Peyton Manning-led offense, but there’s some hope that Thomas can come closer to his Denver level of production than his Jacksonville statistics. Manning, for what’s worth, had a hand Miami’s acquisition of Thomas, as he spoke with Dolphins offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen before the Fins made the move.

While Thomas was Miami’s most notable trade addition, the club also acquired William Hayes at essentially no cost, moving down only 17 spots in the draft in order to bring in the veteran defensive end. That the Dolphins were able to pick up Hayes for such a small price is still rather astonishing, as the 32-year-old is a more-than-viable rotational lineman after grading as the NFL’s No. 17 edge defender on 514 snaps last season, per PFF. Since 2012, Hayes has managed at least 24 quarterback pressures in every season, and has missed only four total games during that span.

Draft picks:

1-22: Charles Harris, DE (Missouri)
2-54: Raekwon McMillan, LB (Ohio State)
3-97: Cordrea Tankersley, CB (Clemson)
5-164: Isaac Asiata, OL (Utah)
5-178: Davon Godchaux, DT (LSU)
6-194: Vincent Taylor, DT (Oklahoma State)
7-237: Isaiah Ford, WR (Virginia Tech)

Defensive end was considered a priority for the Dolphins as far back as February, so it wasn’t stunning when the club selected Missouri edge rusher Charles Harris with the 22nd overall pick. Harris — who “explodes out of his stance,” per Lance Zierlein of NFL.com — managed nine sacks a season ago, and also posted a sack, hit, or hurry once every six pass-rushing attempts in 2016, per PFF. The only problem? There’s no place for Harris to play at the moment after the Dolphins extended Cameron Wake, re-signed Andre Branch, and acquired William Hayes. Harris will see rotational work, to be sure, but he won’t be a Day 1 starter in South Beach.

The same isn’t true for fifth-round pick Davon Godchaux, though, as the LSU product is expected to work as a starter at defensive tackle. It’s a surprising turnaround for Godchaux, as the Dolphins didn’t believe he nor fellow rookie Vincent Taylor were capable of serving even as rotation players as recently as late June. Although he’s a bit slow off the snap, Godchaux has the strength necessary to play against the run game, according to Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, who compared Godchaux to pro defenders Glenn Dorsey and Ego Ferguson.

The rest of Miami’s rookie class probably won’t see all that much action during the upcoming season. Raekwon McMillan had been poised to serve as a starting linebacker for the Dolphins, but he’s lost for the season after suffering a torn ACL. Cornerback Cordrea Tankersley has been called “stiff” by some in the Miami organization, and he’s not expected to play a large role even following the season-ending injury to fellow defensive back Tony Lippett. Similarly, Ted Larsen‘s torn biceps won’t affect the status of first-year guard Isaac Asiata, who is still working with Miami’s second team.

Extensions and restructures:

Reshad Jones, S: Extended through 2021. Four years, $48MM. $19.885MM guaranteed.
Kiko Alonso, LB: Extended through 2020. Four years, $28.91MM. $16MM guaranteed.
Cameron Wake, DE: Extended through 2018. One year, $9.125MM. $7.875MM guaranteed.
William Hayes, DE: Reworked contract. Deleted 2018 season in exchange for reducing 2017 base salary from $3.5MM to $2.7MM. $2MM signing bonus. $50K workout bonus.
Koa Misi, LB: Accepted pay cut. Reduced 2017 base salary from $4.175MM to $1.125MM. $1.15MM guaranteed.

While we’ve already discussed the Dolphins’ strange decisions in free agency (Andre Branch, Lawrence Timmons), the club also made some bizarre calls with regards to extensions. Reshad Jones is Exhibit A: while he’s been one of the league’s best (and most underrated) safeties in recent seasons, Jones is now nearing age-30 and coming off a campaign in which he missed 10 games with a torn rotator cuff. Faced with that information, most teams likely would have let Jones play out the final year of his contract in 2017 before looking into an extension. Miami, on the other hand, made Jones the NFL’s third-highest-paid safety on an annual basis and handed him nearly $20MM in full guarantees on a deal that Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap calls one of the worst in the AFC East.

Linebacker Kiko Alonso‘s extension was another strange ordeal, especially given that he was a restricted free agent this spring. Miami’s first mistake was tendering Alonso at the first-round level at a cost of nearly $4MM — the second-round tender would have been more than sufficient, as no opposing club was going to cough up a Day 2 selection for the right to sign Alonso. The Dolphins then compounded that error, extending Alonso on a four-year deal that — given Miami’s team control over Alonso in 2017 — essentially valued the former Oregon Duck as an $8.3MM player, right around the range of a Dont’a Hightower. Alonso was serviceable during his first year with the Dolphins, but his lack of availability is concerning, as he played only 472 snaps from 2014-15.

Other:

Promoted Matt Burke to defensive coordinator to replace Vance Joseph.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for T Ja’Wuan James ($9.341MM).
Placed QB Ryan Tannehill on injured reserve (torn ACL).
Placed OL Ted Larsen on injured reserve (torn biceps).
Placed LB Koa Misi on injured reserve (neck).
Learned CB Tony Lippett would miss the 2017 season (torn Achilles).
Learned LB Raekwon McMillan would miss the 2017 season (torn ACL).
Learned before signing T.J. McDonald he would be suspended eight games (substance abuse).
Signed 14 undrafted rookie free agents.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Ryan Tannehill, QB: $20,300,000
Ndamukong Suh, DT: $19,100,000
Jay Cutler, QB: $10,000,000
Mike Pouncey, C: $8,975,000
Byron Maxwell, CB: $8,500,000
Cameron Wake, DE: $7,500,000
Julius Thomas, TE: $5,600,000
Andre Branch, DE: $5,000,000
William Hayes, DE: $4,750,000
Lawrence Timmons, LB: $3,775,000

No one expected Jay Cutler to be leading the Dolphins in 2017, but if he, running back Jay Ajayi, and a cavalcade of offensive weapons can keep Miami on schedule, the club could be in contention for another Wild Card berth (an AFC East crown looks completely untenable due to the presence of the Patriots). It’s Miami’s defense that may prove critical next season, as the unit and new coordinator Matt Burke needs to improve on its No. 19 DVOA ranking in order for the Dolphins to take a leap. If it does, the playoffs aren’t a unreasonable goal in South Beach.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Chargers

By Dallas Robinson | at August 23, 2017 3:40 pm

The Chargers are everyone’s favorite 2017 sleeper. The Bolts are moving to a new city, coming off of two consecutive double-digit loss seasons, and have earned only one postseason berth in the past seven years, but Los Angeles looks poised to at least contend for the AFC West during the upcoming campaign. Here’s what general manager Tom Telesco & Co. did this offseason:

Notable signings:

Melvin Ingram, DE: Four years, $54MM. $34MM guaranteed. $2MM available via incentives. Had been assigned franchise tag.
Russell Okung, T: Four years, $53MM. $25MM guaranteed.
Jahleel Addae, S: Four years, $22.5MM. $8MM guaranteed.
Damion Square, DL: Two years, $4MM. $1.225MM guaranteed.
Mike Windt, LS: Four years, $4.421MM. $620K guaranteed.
Tre Boston, S: One year, $900K. $100K guaranteed.
Kellen Clemens, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Kenny Wiggins, OL: One year, $865K. $75K guaranteed.
Kenjon Barner, RB: One year, $815K. $75K guaranteed.
Branden Oliver, RB: One year, $800K. $50K guaranteed.
Dontrelle Inman, WR: One year, $2.746MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
Jeff Cumberland, TE: One year, $775K.
Tenny Palepoi, DL: One year, $615K.

The Chargers’ offensive line has been a clear weakness for the past few seasons, and that was never more apparent than in 2016. With ineffectiveness plaguing the club’s guard positions, Los Angeles ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in adjusted sack rate, adjusted line yards, and pressure rate. Left tackle was a problem, as well, as King Dunlap graded as a below-average blindside protector in his second straight injury-shortened campaign. With an eye towards improving Philip Rivers‘ protection, the Chargers struck quickly to sign tackle Russell Okung on the first day of free agency.

Okung spent the 2016 season with the division rival Broncos after inking an oft-criticized, self-negotiated contract that contained no guaranteed money. Although Okung ended up earning $8MM last year, Denver declined a multi-season option on the veteran offensive lineman that would have locked him in with the Broncos through 2020. Okung ultimately came out on top, however, as his new Chargers deal makes him the league’s highest-paid tackle on an annual basis, slightly ahead of Washington’s Trent Williams.

Clearly, the pact is an overpay, as Okung only offered middling production last season (No. 38 among offensive tackle among 78 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus). And if the Chargers are looking for reliability, they aren’t getting it with Okung, who’s missed 24 games during his seven-year career. But for a club that’s been looking for any kind of consistent effort along the offensive line, Okung should be able to stabilize the left tackle position for the next several seasons.

Okung wasn’t the Chargers’ most significant investment of the offseason, however — that moniker goes to edge rusher Melvin Ingram, who was initially assigned the franchise tag before agreeing to a four-year extension. Ingram, 28, dealt with injury issues earlier in his career, but he’s appeared in all 16 games in each of the past two seasons. During that time, Ingram ranks fourth among 3-4 outside linebackers with 125 total pressures, and also registered 18.5 sacks.

In new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley‘s 4-3 scheme, Ingram will move to defensive end, meaning he should have even more chances to get after opposing quarterbacks. The change shouldn’t be all that extreme, however, as head coach Anthony Lynn says Los Angeles played “four-down spacing” in 2016 even though it used a 3-4 front. Lining up opposite reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa, Ingram should be able to help the Chargers improve upon their 15th ranked adjusted sack rate.

In the second level of their defense, the Chargers re-signed Jahleel Addae to a four-year pact and also brought in fellow safety Tre Boston, inking the latter after he was cut by the Panthers. Addae is quietly one of the more effective safeties in the NFL: in 2016, he graded 13th overall at his position, per PFF, although he missed half the season after suffering a broken collarbone in Week 2. Among all defensive backs, Addae ranked 32nd in PFF’s tackle per opportunity, and is effective against both the run and pass. Boston, meanwhile, is still only 25 years old and is competing with incumbent Dwight Lowery for a starting job.

Like Lowery, offensive lineman Kenny Wiggins is fighting for a starting role, although Wiggins may have a near-lock on the No. 1 slot at right guard. Wiggins, a 29-year-old journeyman who was nearly out of the league as recently as 2013, is now slated to play a major role along Los Angeles’ offensive line following second-round rookie Forrest Lamp‘s season-ending injury. Lamp wasn’t the only offensive lineman on which the Chargers used a relatively early pick, as third-rounder Dan Feeney is also in contention for the right guard job.

Melvin Gordon will Los Angeles’ primary back running behind Wiggins and the rest of the Chargers’ offensive line, and his workload doesn’t figure to be reduced after he played 659 offensive snaps a year ago (sixth among NFL running backs). The Chargers signed Branden Oliver and Kenjon Barner to cheap single-season pacts, and Kenneth Farrow is returning, but Gordon could see an increase on his 254 rushing attempts. It won’t be surprising if Los Angeles seeks to acquire another — preferably pass-catching — running back during roster cuts, with Travaris Cadet, Andre Ellington, and Jamaal Charles among the candidates for release next week.

Jeremy Butler, WR
King Dunlap, T: Released, then retired
Brandon Flowers, CB: Released, then retired
D.J. Fluker, G: Released
Orlando Franklin, G: Released
Javontee Herndon, WR
Ronnie Hillman, RB
Stevie Johnson, WR: Released
Sean Lissemore, DT
Robert McClain, CB
Dexter McCluster, RB
Darrell Stuckey, S: Released
Manti Te’o, LB
Tourek Williams, LB
Danny Woodhead, RB

Los Angeles began the offseason by purging its offensive line, releasing King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker in March before cutting ties with Orlando Franklin in May. All three members of that group played on at least 70% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps in 2016, but none was overly effective: none of Dunlap, Fluker, nor Franklin graded as a top-30 player at his respective position, according to PFF. Each was also scheduled to be relatively expensive in 2017, as all three carried cap charges in excess of $6MM for the upcoming season. Fluker, a former first-round selection, has since signed on with the Giants, while Franklin spent less than a week with New Orleans before being cut again.

Dunlap, meanwhile, ended up hanging up his cleats after drawing interest from only known club (the Broncos), and cornerback Brandon Flowers did the same, announcing his retirement five months after being released by the Chargers. Like Dunlap, Flowers received a few inquiries on the free agent market, as clubs like the Steelers, Cardinals, and Patriots all put in calls. But Dunlap and Flowers could be an indication that general manager Tom Telesco is relying on veteran players too often, and not cutting dead weight early enough, as the rest of the NFL decided Dunlap and Flowers weren’t worth signing.

Manti Te’o did land a new contract, but Los Angeles made the correct call in not matching the veteran linebacker’s two-year offer from the Saints. One of the best collegiate linebackers of the past decade, Te’o simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy at the professional level. It’s most been lower-body injuries that have sidelined Te’o, and that was true once again in 2016, as a torn Achilles ended his season after just three games. All told, Te’o missed a whopping 30 contests during his four-year run with the Chargers.

A few of Los Angeles’ offensive defections also dealt with health issues in 2016: a torn ACL forced running back Danny Woodhead to miss the majority of the season for the second time in three years, while wideout Stevie Johnson was sidelined for the entirety of the campaign following meniscus surgery. While the Chargers now have the wide receiver depth to withstand the loss of Johnson, it’s fair to argue the club should have made an effort to retain Woodhead. Although he’s now 32 years old, Woodhead was incredibly effective during his two healthy years with the Chargers, averaging 97 receptions in 2013 and 2015. Los Angeles doesn’t have another weapon like Woodhead on its current roster.

Trades:

Acquired QB Cardale Jones from the Bills in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick in 2018 or 2019.

While the Chargers were open to drafting a quarterback in the 2017 draft, they ultimately made seven selections without picking a signal-caller. Instead, Los Angeles sent a conditional late-round choice to the Bills for Cardale Jones, who was selected in the fourth round in 2016. Jones, 24, managed only 11 attempts last season, and the most notable thing he did during his rookie campaign was knock a phone out of a reporter’s hand during training camp with a pass that was overthrown by 20 yards.

Nearly every scouting report on Jones was similar: the Ohio State product has excellent size and arm strength, but doesn’t have a sound ability to read defenses or manage the pocket. Whether Anthony Lynn and Ken Whisenhunt can harness Jones’ talent is anyone’s guess, but he’s not expected to serve as Philip Rivers‘ backup in 2017. That honor will instead go to veteran Kellen Clemens, who’s served as Rivers’ No. 2 for the past three years.

Draft picks:

1-7: Mike Williams, WR (Clemson)
2-38: Forrest Lamp, OL (Western Kentucky)
3-71: Dan Feeney, OL (Indiana)
4-113: Rayshawn Jenkins, S (Miami)
5-151: Desmond King, DB (Iowa)
6-190: Sam Tevi, T (Utah)
7-225: Isaac Rochell, DT (Notre Dame)

The Chargers simply can’t catch a break with their early-round selections: seventh overall pick Mike Williams isn’t expected to see the field until at least October as he recovers from a back injury, while second-rounder Forrest Lamp is done for the season after tearing his ACL. While Los Angeles clearly couldn’t predict Williams would suffer a herniated disc on the first day of training camp, the wisdom of the club using a top-10 pick on a wide receiver can be questioned, as the Chargers already employ Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, and Dontrelle Inman, and had far greater needs elsewhere on the roster.

A number of mock drafts (including our own) projected Los Angeles to use that seventh pick on safety Malik Hooker, pegging the Ohio State product as defensive coordinator Gus Bradley‘s version of Earl Thomas. Instead, the Chargers opted to wait until Day 3 to address their secondary, using fourth- and fifth-round selections on defensive backs Rayshawn Jenkins and Desmond King, respectively.

King is especially intriguing, as Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus labeled the former Iowa Hawkeye the No. 1 mid-round gem of the draft. While he doesn’t offer speed, King can play either safety or corner (the latter probably only in a zone-based scheme), and has excellent ball skills, as he broke up 20 passes over the past two seasons. He’s also a sure tackler, per Palazzolo, who noted King missed only 11 tackles on 176 attempts from 2014-16.

Other:

Will relocate to Los Angeles for the 2017 season.
Hired Anthony Lynn as head coach to replace Mike McCoy.
Hired Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator to replace John Pagano. Hired former Falcons DC Richard Smith as linebackers coach.
Hired George Stewart as special teams coordinator to replace Craig Aukerman.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for CB Jason Verrett ($8.526MM).
Learned LB Denzel Perryman would miss regular season games (ankle).
Learned OL Max Tuerk would be suspended four games (PEDs).
Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents.

Owner Dean Spanos had the option to move the Chargers to Los Angeles in time for the 2017 season, but decided to hold off for one more year in order to give San Diego the chance to retain the team. The city (and county) failed, however, falling $175MM short of what a Qualcomm Stadium replacement would have cost. Instead, the Chargers will play in LA’s StubHub Center for the next three seasons before moving to Inglewood, where they’ll share a stadium with the Rams.

The Chargers are only moving ~100 miles north, but relocating is never a simple task (as anyone who’s watched Amazon’s All or Nothing Rams documentary has witnessed). Doing so with a rookie head coach is even more difficult, as Anthony Lynn will attempt to manage the club’s move while also overseeing the Chargers’ roster for the first time. Lynn, who was linked to every head coaching vacancy this offseason, helped diagram one of the league’s more innovative running games with the Bills in recent seasons, and though Los Angeles retained incumbent offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, Lynn will surely seek to improve a rushing offense that ranked 24th in DVOA in 2016.

New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will have an excellent cornerback on his hands for at least two more years, as the Chargers made the easy decision to exercise Jason Verrett‘s 2018 option. Verrett, 26, has been excellent when he’s been able to stay on the field, as he boasted the NFL’s best coverage grade in 2015 (per PFF) and has allowed a career catch rate of just 57%. Health hasn’t been given for Verrett, however, as he’s missed 24 games through three seasons.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Philip Rivers, QB: $20,000,000
Melvin Ingram, DE: $14,875,000
Corey Liuget, DT: $9,500,000
Keenan Allen, WR: $8,650,000
Travis Benjamin, WR: $6,500,000
Russell Okung, T: $6,000,000
Joey Bosa, DE: $5,880,380
Joe Barksdale, T: $5,546,875
Antonio Gates, TE: $5,437,500
Orlando Franklin, G: $5,100,000 (dead money)

A new city. A new head coach. A new defensive scheme. In a division that boasted two postseason teams in 2016, the Chargers may have a difficult time earning a playoff berth. But Los Angeles has depth all along its roster and top-end talent at crucial positions such as wide receiver and cornerback, so contending for the AFC West crown — or at the least, a wild card slot — is certainly within reach.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

By Dallas Robinson | at August 21, 2017 8:24 pm

Although the 2016 Jaguars may not have been as poor as their 3-13 record indicated (Football Outsiders pegged Jacksonville’s expected wins at 5.4 while Pro Football Reference had them at 5.9), the club still posted at least 11 losses for the sixth consecutive season. Having fired their head coach in-season, the Jaguars seemed likely to add free agent talent to their roster, and with nearly $70MM in available cap space, they had the funds to do so.

Notable signings:

Calais Campbell, DL: Four years, $60MM. $30MM guaranteed.
A.J. Bouye, CB: Five years, $67.5MM. $26MM guaranteed.
Barry Church, S: Four years, $26MM. $12MM guaranteed.
Abry Jones, DT: Four years, $15.5MM. $3.5MM guaranteed.
Earl Watford, OL: Two years, $5MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Mychal Rivera, TE: Two years, $3.25MM. $750K guaranteed.
Lerentee McCray, LB: One year, $2MM. $750K guaranteed.
Stefan Charles, DT: Two years, $4MM. $400K guaranteed.
Audie Cole, LB: Two years, $2.6MM. $100K guaranteed.
Patrick Omameh, G: One year, $875K. $100K guaranteed.
Brian Dixon, CB: One year, $690K.
Andrew Gachkar, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Jonathan Grimes, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
DuJuan Harris, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Jeron Johnson, S: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Malliciah Goodman, DE: Contract terms unknown.

The Jaguars have completely revamped their starting defensive backfield over the past two years, first adding Jalen Ramsey and Tashaun Gipson through the draft and free agency, respectively, in 2016 before signing A.J. Bouye and Barry Church this spring. Bouye, particularly, was one of the more interesting free agent cases in recent memory, as he’d only played on 819 defensive snaps over his first three NFL seasons before seeing action on 722 plays last year. He was excellent, as well, grading as the league’s No. 2 cornerback, per Pro Football Focus, and ranked as PFR’s No. 1 free agent when the market opened.

Due to his productivity and his age (he just turned 26 last week), Bouye generated a great deal of interest, as the Colts, Titans, Bears, Buccaneers, Jets, Eagles, and Texans all inquired on the free agent corner. Jacksonville, though, has never been afraid to open up its checkbook for top-of-the-market deals, and made Bouye the eighth-highest-paid cornerback in terms of annual salary — he ranks fourth in guarantees at $26MM. Now paired with Ramsey, who lived up to his fourth overall draft status during his rookie campaign, Bouye gives the Jaguars one of the league’s best secondaries.

Church will join Ramsey and Bouye in the back-end of Jacksonville’s defense, and while he’s not an elite athlete on the level of the Jaguars’ starting corners, Church is a sound, reliable safety who should provide capable play for the duration of his four-year contract. Since becoming a starter in 2013, the 29-year-old Church has started 59 of a possible 64 games, and while he missed four contests in 2016, that was due to a freak injury (broken arm) and not a nagging ailment. Jacksonville not only now boasts an an outstanding defensive backfield, but faces the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses, according to Warren Sharp‘s 2017 NFL Preview.

The Jaguars didn’t stop adding to their defense after upgrading the secondary, as the club also targeted reinforcements along the front four. Calais Campbell was the best interior defensive lineman available during the free agent period, and Jacksonville convinced him to move to northern Florida instead of Denver (Campbell reportedly narrowed his choice to the Jaguars and Broncos). While Campbell is an extremely talented player against both the run and pass, it’s fair to question the wisdom of signing a near-31-year-old to a four-year pact that contains $30MM in guaranteed money. The deal contains a signing bonus of just $6MM, so Jacksonville can exit the contract after two years, but it’s certainly a risky proposition. In 2017, expect Campbell to play end on early downs before sliding inside on passing plays.

Campbell is a new addition to the Jaguars’ defensive line, while Abry Jones will be returning to Jacksonville for a fifth consecutive season. Jones, who at age-25 is five years younger than Campbell, re-signed with the Jags in February, well before free agency actually opened. I can’t help but wonder if he could’ve landed a larger contract by waiting and meeting with other teams, and Jacksonville may have orchestrated a steal. Jones is an exceptional run defender and played on nearly half the Jaguars’ defensive snaps a year ago, but his contract is essentially equal to that of the Jets’ Steve McLendon, who is a vastly inferior player.

While the Jaguars didn’t spend extravagantly on the offensive side of the ball, a couple of veterans could end up playing relatively impactful roles. Tight end Mychal Rivera once posted 58 receptions for the Raiders, but consistently saw his role dwindle over the past two years. While Jacksonville ran of ton of three wide receiver formations last season (75% of plays, 15% above league average), that percentage could fall in the early weeks of the season as Marqise Lee recovers from a high ankle sprain. Without an established No. 3 wideout, it’s possible the Jaguars could use more two tight end sets, potentially giving Rivera an opportunity to make an impression.

Patrick Omameh may also see his responsibilities enhanced, as Branden Albert‘s release means rookie Cam Robinson will now start at left tackle, leaving a vacancy at left guard that Omameh figures to fill. Omameh, who received a guarantee of just $100K, will be the weak link on Jacksonville’s offense line, but he’s not a disaster, as PFF ranked him as the No. 31 guard in the NFL last season. However, PFF gave Omameh poor run-blocking marks, and given the Jaguars’ intention to lean on the running game in 2017, the club may need to search for other options on the left side. Austin Pasztor, who just signed with the Falcons last week, would have been an intriguing signing.

Notable losses:

Looking at list of notable Jacksonville losses, it’s apparent the Jaguars were intent on overhauling three key areas of their roster: the offensive line, the defensive line, and the secondary. Along the front five, Jacksonville struck quickly to acquire offensive tackle Branden Albert from the Dolphins, sending a late-round 2018 pick to Miami in exchange for the veteran blindside protector. While the Jaguars thought they had stabilized the left side of their offensive line, Albert’s addition was anything but solidifying.

Albert held out for a new deal in April, but eventually reported to camp after the Jaguars indicated they wouldn’t rework his deal. At the end of July, Albert abruptly announced his retirement, leaving Jacksonville in a precarious position. Just a week later, Albert un-retired and attempted to again report to Jacksonville, but general manager David Caldwell & Co. weren’t having it. Having grown tired of Albert’s act, the Jaguars first placed Albert on the reserve/retired list, and then simply released him. While there’s an argument to be made that Jacksonville should have held onto Albert’s contractual rights, the club was likely ready to part ways with Albert given his offseason antics.

Albert won’t be part of the Jaguars’ offensive line in 2017, and neither will Kelvin Beachum nor Luke Joeckel, each of whom were allowed to depart via free agency. Jacksonville took a risk on Beachum last season, offering him a unique option-based contract as he recovered from a torn ACL. Although he stayed healthy, Beachum wasn’t effective as the Jaguars’ left tackle, and has never rebounded to his pre-injury level of play. Joeckel, meanwhile, was a massive disappointment after being drafted second overall in 2013, and had been moved to guard by the end of his Jacksonville tenure. The Seahawks, shockingly, saw fit to sign Joeckel a one-year deal worth $8MM, a price the Jags were never going match.

Jacksonville’s defensive line will see even more change than the team’s offensive line, as none of Sen’Derrick Marks, Roy Miller, Jared Odrick, nor Tyson Alualu will return in 2017. None of that group played 50% of the Jaguars’ defensive snaps last season, and each is at least 29 years old. Miller and Odrick, notably, were both sidelined by injury a year ago, and only played in 12 combined games. Of the foursome, only Miller (Chiefs) and Alualu (Steelers) have found new contracts, though Odrick has been linked to a number of clubs.

Because the Jaguars have added so much talent to their defensive backfield over the past couple of years, quality players such as Jonathan Cyprien, Prince Amukamara, and Davon House found themselves redundant in Jacksonville. Cyprien, a second-round pick in 2013, finally broke out in 2017, grading as the league’s No. 7 safety per PFF, but he’s simply not as consistent a player as new Jaguars safety Barry Church. Similarly, Amukamara has always provided competent play at each of his NFL stops, but Jacksonville wasn’t going to pay him the $7MM he landed in Chicago, especially when he’d be the team’s third corner at best. This is what roster turnover looks like.

Trades:

Acquired T Branden Albert from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2018 seventh-round pick (pick returned to Jacksonville due to Albert’s release).
Acquired a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 240) from the Dolphins in exchange for TE Julius Thomas.
Acquired a conditional 2018 seventh-round pick from the Bengals in exchange for DE Chris Smith.
Acquired a 2017 second-round pick (No. 34; T Cam Robinson) from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2017 second-round pick (No. 35; DT Malik McDowell) and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 187; S Mike Tyson).

Julius Thomas posted 24 touchdowns from 2013-14 with Peyton Manning as his quarterback, and the Jaguars bought in, signing the athletic tight end to a five-year deal worth $46MM. Predictably, Thomas’ two-year stay in Jacksonville wasn’t as successful as his run in Denver, as catching passes from Blake Bortles isn’t exactly the same as handling throws from a future of Hall of Famer. From 2015-16, Thomas struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness, appearing in only 21 games and managing 76 total receptions for 736 yards and nine scores. While he still can’t help as a blocker, Thomas could rebound under Adam Gase in Miami, with whom he agreed to a renegotiated contact following his trade to South Beach.

Draft picks:

1-4: Leonard Fournette, RB (LSU)
2-34: Cam Robinson, T (Alabama)
3-68: Dawuane Smoot, DL (Illinois)
4-110: Dede Westbrook, WR (Oklahoma)
5-148: Blair Brown, LB (Ohio)
7-222: Jalen Myrick, CB (Minnesota)
7-240: Marquez Williams, FB (Miami)

While there’s certainly an argument to be made that the fourth overall pick should never be spent on a devalued position such as running back, the Jaguars bucked conventions and selected LSU’s Leonard Fournette, whom many analysts view as a once-in-a-generation runner. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein called Fournette a “full-on, grown man” heading into the draft, and Fournette certainly ran like one during his time in the SEC. In 2015, Fournette rushed for nearly 2,000 yards and scored 19 touchdowns, and although he was limited by injury in 2016, he still averaged 6.5 yards per touch on the ground. He doesn’t factor into the passing game, however, leading to questions about his fit in today’s NFL. But if he hits, Fournette could be the next Adrian Peterson.

Like Fournette, Cam Robinson will play a large role during his rookie season, as the Alabama product is now the Jaguars’ starting left tackle following the release of Branden Albert. Jacksonville paid 109 cents on the dollar to swap Round 2 picks with Seattle, moving up to No. 34 in order to draft Robinson. Pro Football Focus compared Robinson to former Panthers tackle Michael Oher, noting Robinson’s propensity to vacillate between excellent play and sub-optimal production. In 2016, Robinson ranked 10th among all collegiate tackles with a 97.8 pass-blocking efficiency, but he also committed 23 penalties over the past two seasons.

The rest of the Jaguars’ 2017 draft picks look like backups in Year 1. Defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot could see rotational snaps during his rookie campaign, but is buried on depth chart that contains a multitude of high-end talent. Blair Brown, too, has veterans in front of him, as Myles Jack, Paul Posluszny, and Telvin Smith form one of the league’s more athletic linebacking trios. Fourth-round receiver Dede Westbrook has the best chance to earn an early-season role, as he projects as Jacksonville’s third wideout while Marqise Lee is sidelined.

Extensions and restructures:

Brandon Linder, C: Extended through 2022. Five years, $51.7MM. $19.5MM guaranteed.
Chad Henne, QB: Restructured contract. One year, $3.5MM. $500K guaranteed.

Other:

Hired Tom Coughlin as executive vice president of football operations. Extended general manager David Caldwell through 2019.
Retained Doug Marrone (interim) as head coach to replace Gus Bradley.
Retained interim offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
Hired Joe DeCamillis as special teams coordinator to replace Mike Mallory.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for QB Blake Bortles ($19.503MM).
Claimed S Tracy Howard off waivers from the Browns.
Claimed CB Charles James off waivers from the Bills.
Claimed OL Demetrius Rhaney off waivers from the Rams.
Signed 16 undrafted rookie free agents.

It’s difficult to label David Caldwell‘s tenure as Jaguars general manager anything other than a failure. Clearly, Caldwell didn’t join a Jacksonville club loaded with talent, as the Jags posted a 2-14 record the year before Caldwell was hired. But Caldwell, formerly Atlanta’s director of player personnel, hasn’t done anything to turn around Jacksonville’s fortunes, as the club has produced double-digit-loss seasons in each of the past four years. Caldwell has invested in hefty free agent deals that have gone nowhere, wasted top-five draft choices on selection such as Luke Joeckel and Blake Bortles, and fired his hand-picked head coach, Gus Bradley.

Caldwell earned a contract extension this offseason, but that was mostly in order to line up his deal with that of new executive vice president Tom Coughlin, who was hired as Caldwell’s superior. Everything the Jaguars did this offseason, from the addition of Coughlin, to the decision to retain Doug Marrone as head coach and Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, points to Jacksonville blowing up its team after 2017. If the Jaguars struggle next season, it won’t be surprising if Caldwell and Marrone are both ousted, leaving Coughlin as the ultimate decision-maker in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars’ recent handling of Bortles also points to a changing of the guard, as the club has now opened up its quarterback battle to a competition between Bortles and Chad Henne. Jacksonville has financial incentive to limit Bortles’ playing time next season, as a catastrophic injury would lead his $19.5MM 2018 option to become fully guaranteed. As such, the Jaguars could place Bortles on the bench for the duration of the year, or could even choose to waive him before the season begins. That’s probably an extreme option, but Jacksonville’s decision to allow Henne to vie for the starting quarterback job is a sign Coughlin is now calling the shots.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Malik Jackson, DL: $15,500,000
Calais Campbell, DL: $10,500,000
Branden Albert, T: $8,900,000
Barry Church, S: $8,000,000
Allen Hurns, WR: $7,000,000
Blake Bortles, QB: $6,571,983
Jermey Parnell, T: $6,500,000
Dante Fowler Jr.: $6,406,429
Tashaun Gipson, S: $6,300,000
Paul Posluszny, LB: $6,166,668

2017 will undoubtedly be a turning point year for the Jaguars. Typically a preseason sleeper pick, Jacksonville could theoretically take a step forward next season and claim a division title in a weak AFC South. On the other hand, another disappointing campaign will likely lead to the complete overhaul of the roster, coaching staff, and front office. At present, the latter appears more likely, but the Jaguars could certainly shock the NFL world.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Steelers

By Sam Robinson | at August 21, 2017 1:14 pm

After qualifying for their first AFC championship game in six seasons, the Steelers are once again positioned as one of the NFL’s best teams. They are firmly in the conversation as being the top AFC challenger to the Patriots and have as good of a case as any team in that group to possess the best shot at dethroning them.

But while the Patriots made several key additions this offseason, the Steelers continued their cautious approach to outside augmentation. The team fans will see this season is largely the same as what Pittsburgh supporters observed in 2016. While that’s not necessarily a bad thing given the success 2016 brought, the Patriots having appeared to improve stands to make the Steelers’ task at reaching their first Super Bowl in seven years more difficult.

Pittsburgh, though, did have several notable moments during the offseason — one headlined by seminal contract outcomes for their top skill-position talents.

Notable signings:

Le’Veon Bell, RB: One year, $12.12MM. Fully guaranteed. Assigned franchise tag.
Tyson Alualu, DT: Two years, $6MM. $1.75MM guaranteed.
Landry Jones, QB: Two years, $4.4MM. $600K guaranteed.
James Harrison, LB: Two years, $3.5MM. $500K guaranteed.
Coty Sensabaugh, CB: Two years, $2.6MM. $425K guaranteed.
David Johnson, TE: Two years, $2.05MM. $235K guaranteed.
Steven Johnson, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Justin Hunter, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit. $30K guaranteed.
Ross Cockrell, CB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Chris Hubbard, T: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Knile Davis, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Daimion Stafford, S: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Terrell Watson, RB: One year, $465K.
JaCorey Shepherd, CB: Contract terms unknown.

Bell and the Steelers couldn’t come to terms on an agreement, and the star running back remains a holdout. While he’s expected back before the season, this is not an ideal situation. The Steelers reportedly offered the All-Pro talent a competitive deal worth $60MM over five years. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported the proposal included $30MM in Years 1-2 and $42MM by Year 3. As a result of the impasse going past July 17, and one that possibly featured Bell reneging on an agreed-upon contract, the sides can’t discuss a long-term deal until after this season.

The 25-year-old running back reportedly wanted a deal that also reflected his value to the Steelers as a receiver. While it’s true Bell (227 career catches) is essentially Pittsburgh’s No. 2 wideout, that’s become part of the job description for modern-day backs. It’s not as if this skill is overlooked by front offices, with backs who cannot threaten defenses aerially having tougher times getting work. Bell is one of the best there is at this discipline, but turning down a deal that would have placed him on his own financial tier is a risk, especially given his history with injuries and suspensions.

The NFL’s suspended Bell twice for substance abuse, and he’s now undergone knee and groin surgeries over the past two years. His window to sign a mammoth pact like the one reportedly offered is decreasing, especially considering how the Steelers use him. Bell averaged 28 touches per game during the 12 games be played in 2016. That workload will be tough to sustain.

However, the Steelers were willing to pay Bell $14MM on average over the first three years of this deal. His tag amount would be $14.5MM in 2018, and the Steelers — without a replacement lined up — may be amendable to that figure. If so, Bell taking the Kirk Cousins approach would pocket him nearly $30MM in two years. No other running back can match that kind of earning power. But another injury puts these hopes in jeopardy, so Bell not agreeing to long-term security now could be a pivotal moment in his career.

Other than this, free agency went pretty much as it usually does for Pittsburgh. The build-from-within franchise secured a host of role players’ returns with low-level deals and brought back Harrison again.

Now 39, Harrison remains the oldest defender in the league. He was a revelation for the AFC North champs last season, ranking as Pro Football Focus’ No. 10 edge defender — ahead of prime talents like Jason Pierre-Paul, Ryan Kerrigan and Bruce Irvin. Pittsburgh also used Harrison on 758 snaps. The workout warrior may be near the end of the line, but the Steelers still figure to coax some final months (or years?) of quality football from the 2008 defensive player of the year. Linebackers coach Joey Porter did say he plans to use the veteran as a “relief pitcher” behind the younger talents this season, though.

Jones will be back to serve as Ben Roethlisberger‘s backup for a third straight season. While the Steelers’ capabilities diminish considerably when Big Ben is out, as he generally is at some point during a season, Jones has been in Todd Haley‘s system for five years now. Jones’ completion rate jumped three percentage points, to 61 percent, last season. He fared better than he did in the past, but the Steelers drafted another quarterback to put Jones on notice. However, for 2017, Jones is probably still the franchise’s QB2.

When compared to the Patriots’ offseason additions — Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gilmore, Dwayne Allen and Co. — or the Raiders’ (Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson), the Steelers’ approach places a premium on draft work. And it’s arguable this lack of action to plug holes, especially on defense, is doing Roethlisberger a disservice. With the 35-year-old passer now on a year-to-year arrangement, Steelers management isn’t exactly maximizing the championship window the quarterback’s given the team the way other AFC frontrunners have in recent years.

That said, the Steelers’ methods continue to produce winning teams. It’s just debatable if this offseason caution has restricted them from matching up with conference powers in January during this decade.

Notable losses:

A franchise flush with linebacker tradition saw Timmons become its most identifiable second-level defender this decade. The former first-round pick started for eight straight seasons but did not receive a third Steelers contract, venturing to Miami early in free agency. Pittsburgh already has 2014 first-round pick Ryan Shazier inside, and Vince Williams — signed through 2018 at $2.5MM per year — is much more affordable. The 2013 sixth-rounder figures to move into the starting lineup. Former Broncos two-down player Steven Johnson provides depth.

Pittsburgh deviated from its usual offseason shtick last March by signing Green for four years and $20MM, but significant injury issues essentially deprived Green from making an impact in western Pennsylvania. The Steelers cut him and will carry $3.562MM in dead money on their 2017 cap. No comparable outside acquisitions came in 2017, and the Steelers are back to using in-house tight ends. Six-foot-7 Jesse James is only entering his age-23 season and looks set to start, as he did for most of last season.

The modern-era Steelers have continued to churn out viable wide receivers and have been keen to watch most of them sign their second contracts elsewhere. From Plaxico Burress to Santonio Holmes to Mike Wallace to Emmanuel Sanders, the team has shown an incredible acumen for identifying wideouts. The Steelers’ second era of Super Bowl success involved treating every receiver except for Hines Ward and Antionio Brown as superfluous cogs.

Lately, Day 2 of the draft’s served as the Steelers’ preference for securing talent to replace departed players. That tradition continued this offseason, just as it did when Sanders departed and second-rounder Martavis Bryant arrived shortly after. JuJu Smith-Schuster came via second-round pick to replace Wheaton, who delivered an up-and-down career.

The ex-Oregon State sprinter became a serviceable complement to Brown, averaging 17 yards per catch en route to 749 yards and five touchdown receptions in 2015. Sent to IR midway through the season, Wheaton was one of many Steelers skill-position talents absent by the time they faced the Patriots in the championship game. With Bryant, Sammie Coates, Eli Rogers and Smith-Schuster in tow, Pittsburgh has a good chance of replacing Wheaton as it has his supporting-cast predecessors.

Whereas receiver’s been a Day 2 priority in drafts, Pittburgh continues to pour resources into first-round pass rushers. T.J. Watt will replace Jarvis Jones, who did not make the kind of impact the team envisioned when it used a 2013 Round 1 selection on the Georgia dynamo. Even after Jones and Timmons’ exits, the Steelers still have three first-round ‘backers. Arthur Moats is a solid reserve as well.

Williams remains available, and he did not place his most recent employer among the teams with which he wouldn’t sign. Now equipped with third-rounder James Conner to supplement Fitzgerald Toussaint, the Steelers would seemingly be covered without the 34-year-old running back if Bell returned before the regular season as he’s expected to. If he doesn’t, then a Williams re-up makes sense. Williams functioned impressively for Pittsburgh during the 2015 season, amassing 907 ground yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. His yards-per-carry average dropped from 4.5 to 3.5 from 2015 to ’16, though.

Draft picks:

1-30: T.J. Watt, LB (Wisconsin)
2-62: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (USC)
3-94: Cameron Sutton, CB (Tennessee)
3-105: James Conner, RB (Pittsburgh)
4-135: Joshua Dobbs, QB (Tennessee)
5-173: Brian Allen, CB (Utah)
6-213: Colin Holba, LS (Louisville)
7-248: Keion Adams, LB (Western Michigan)

Watt continues the Steelers’ aggressive investment strategy regarding pass-rushing talent, with three of the team’s past five first-round picks going toward outside linebackers. The third of the Watt brothers to ascend to the NFL, T.J. Watt augments Pittsburgh’s situation at outside ‘backer. The Steelers have two first-rounders (Watt, Bud Dupree) and two proven veterans (Harrison, Moats) outside.

The Steelers finished 16th in sacks with 38 last season. Watt wasn’t viewed as a can’t-miss pass rusher, although he posted upper-echelon Combine numbers to indicate a possible future as such. And the Wisconsin standout became a much more disruptive force as a junior in increasing his pressures from 12 as a sophomore to 56 in his third college season.

Of course, 2016 was the only season that featured much Watt work, with J.J. Watt‘s younger brother playing 661 snaps last season compared to just 174 in 2015. So, the Steelers are pretty much going off that — and perhaps the otherworldly success J.J. has enjoyed since entering the league.

Smith-Schuster was a three-year fixture in the USC offense. His sophomore season — 1,454 yards, 16.3 per catch, 10 touchdowns — was stronger than his follow-up effort last fall. Although, the Trojans target still caught 10 touchdowns despite seeing his yards-per-catch figure plummet by more than three yards. The way the Steelers are presently constructed, Smith-Schuster won’t be asked to be an instant contributor. But he could be a red zone weapon and will provide depth for a team that was short on it by the end of last season.

Receiving steady reps as the Steelers’ No. 1 back, Conner steps into an interesting situation. At 235 pounds, the ex-Pittsburgh Panther could bring a complementary element to the shiftier Bell. The Steelers use Bell as a throwback bellcow-type ball carrier, but Conner has the body type — and the numbers, with 42 touchdowns during his sophomore and senior seasons combined — to be effective in short-yardage situations.

This was the third straight year the Steelers selected a corner with a Day 1 or Day 2 pick, and Sutton will push thus-far-unavailable Senquez Golson for time as a top backup behind Artie Burns, Ross Cockrell and William Gay. Golson may be on the ropes at this point, per DC Keith Butler. Dobbs profiles as a project player who can learn behind Roethlisberger and Jones.

Extensions and restructures:

Antonio Brown, WR: Extended through 2021. Four years, $68MM. $19MM guaranteed.
Alejandro Villanueva, T: Extended through 2020. Four years, $24MM.

After signing what turned out to be an incredibly team-friendly contract, Brown finally secured his overdue payday. The Steelers held firm on their policy not to address contracts with more than one year remaining on them, and Brown stayed healthy to move into a position to become the league’s highest-paid wideout. He’s now $2MM clear of the field on the wideout salary hierarchy, on a per-year basis, and Brown’s deal will undoubtedly be used when it comes time for Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans to discuss extensions.

Entering his age-29 season, Brown is the only active receiver with three first-team All-Pro honors on his resume. Only three modern-era wideouts — Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss — have earned more than three such distinctions. The former sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan has turned in the most productive four-season stretch any receiver’s ever authored and is on a Hall of Fame course.

Brown being tied to Pittsburgh for five more seasons, with Pittsburgh being unable to comfortably jettison the contract until the 2021 season, could affect Roethlisberger’s retirement decision. Big Ben considered stepping away this offseason but backed out. Now, he has Brown and Bryant tied to the Steelers for at least two more seasons.

Roethlisberger’s blindside protector did not have as obvious of a case as Brown for a new contract. Villanueva’s late NFL entry placed him as a rare 28-year-old ERFA; two more years remained on his league-minimum deal. While the starting left tackle had outplayed that agreement, the Steelers didn’t have much incentive for enhancing Villaueva’s salary. And these discussions transpired for months.

But like they did with ERFA-turned-Super Bowl hero Willie Parker a decade before, the Steelers came to an agreement with Villanueva. He could have possibly gotten more per year when he became a UFA, but being that he would have been almost 30 once he hit the market, Villanueva and the Steelers came to a compromise. While $6MM AAV is lower-end starting left tackle money, placing Villanueva 20th — and essentially last among non-rookie-deal blindside blockers — the ex-UDFA accepted the terms to secure a reasonable commitment before his value potentially deteriorates.

Other:

Extended head coach Mike Tomlin through 2020.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for LB Ryan Shazier ($8.718MM).
Learned WR Martavis Bryant was reinstated from suspension.
Signed nine undrafted rookie free agents.

In extending Tomlin through 2020, the Steelers could be set up for an unthinkable procession of leaders. Should Tomlin coach through the 2020 campaign, which would be his 14th as a head coach, the franchise will have gone more than 50 years with just three head coaches. While Chuck Noll did the most to make this a possibility in coaching for 23 seasons (1969-91), Bill Cowher (1992-2006) and Tomlin have played big parts in the continuity associated with this operation.

Obviously leading the league with six Super Bowl titles, the Steelers are one of just two teams — joining the Broncos — to have made a conference title game in the 1970s, ’80s, ’90s, ’00s and ’10s. While Tomlin’s had the benefit of Roethlisberger to help install the Steelers as perpetual contenders, Pittsburgh fielded elite defenses during its championship runs in the defensive-minded coach’s early years. And the steady success will have the 45-year-old HC set to become one of the highest-paid sideline bosses in the game.

When on the field, Shazier has shown himself to be one of the most athletic pure linebackers in the game. While he’s missed 14 games in his three-year career, Shazier enters 2017 as one of Pittsburgh’s most important players. In addition to finishing with exactly 87 tackles and 3.5 sacks for a second straight season, Shazier intercepted three passes and deflected nine more. The versatile ‘backer isn’t a fan of the fifth-year option, but with none of the other 2014 first-rounders having signed extensions yet, his franchise isn’t planning to buck the trend first.

The Steelers did not replace Bryant effectively last season, and it lowered their offensive ceiling. Coates has yet to show much consistency, and Wheaton’s injury further limited Roethlisberger’s weaponry. Bryant has scored 14 touchdowns in 21 games and is one of the NFL’s premier deep threats. The Steelers still managed to rank fifth in passing last season but finished with 400 fewer yards than 2015 despite Roethlisberger playing in two more games. Roethlisberger’s 328.2 passing yards per game from 2015 are by far a career high, and his 4,952 yards in 2014 easily represent his best as an NFLer.

Bryant undoubtedly adds a dimension to this offense but will obviously have to prove he’s moved past the off-field trouble that’s defined his career.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,200,000
Antonio Brown, WR: $13,618,334
Le’Veon Bell, RB: $12,120,000
Maurkice Pouncey, C: $11,051,000
David DeCastro, G: $11,050,000
Cameron Heyward, DE: $10,400,000
Mike Mitchell, S: $8,135,416
Marcus Gilbert, T: $7,308,500
Ramon Foster, G: $3,591,666
Ladarius Green, TE: $3,562,500 (dead money)

The Steelers return many players responsible for securing three straight playoff berths, but for having a future Hall of Fame quarterback, an argument can be made the team has underachieved in recent seasons. This one represents another chance to capitalize on having Roethlisberger under center.

With upgrades coming at wideout and pass rusher, the Steelers should be better than they were in 2016. Roethlisberger’s health is obviously essential. But with top AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Baltimore potentially not being playoff-caliber teams, Pittsburgh has a better chance to challenge for its first playoff bye since 2010.

The case for the Steelers having improved exists, but one based around the franchise not doing enough this offseason to present the best possible challenge to the Patriots does as well. As such, it will be on the Steelers’ holdovers to make this a keystone season.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

5 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Pittsburgh Steelers

PFR Originals: 8/13/17 – 8/20/17

By Dallas Robinson | at August 20, 2017 2:30 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

While the NFL doesn’t see as many trades as the NBA or MLB, deals can often be swung in the weeks leading up to the regular season. With that in mind, I examined the Top 30 NFL Trade Candidates for 2017, with players such as A.J. McCarron, Carlos Hyde, Reggie Ragland, and Stephone Anthony making the list.
Ryan Mathews was released by the Eagles last week, but he should be able to find work in the near future, as I made the case that Mathews is the perfect backup running back. Based on his production, scheme fit, cost, and the lack of running back options on the open market, Mathews will be a nice find for whichever team lands him.
With the 2017 regular season only several weeks away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered three teams this week:

1 comment PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By Dallas Robinson | at August 19, 2017 6:50 pm

Last year’s Buccaneers didn’t break the club’s decade-long streak of sitting at home during the postseason, but they did post their best record since 2010. Under first-year head coach Dirk Koetter, quarterback Jameis Winston showed marked improvement, while Tampa Bay’s defense also posted better results under new coordinator Mike Smith. With an eye towards earning a playoff berth for first time since the Jon Gruden era, the Buccaneers entered the offseason with clear goals in mind.

Notable signings:

DeSean Jackson, WR: Three years, $33.5MM. $20MM guaranteed.
William Gholston, DE: Four years, $27.5MM. $7MM guaranteed. $9MM available via incentives.
Chris Baker, DT: Three years, $15.75MM. $6MM guaranteed.
J.J. Wilcox, S: Two years, $6.5MM. $3.125MM guaranteed.
Josh Robinson, CB: Two years, $5MM. $3MM guaranteed.
Chris Conte, S: Two years, $5MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: One year, $3MM. $1.25MM guaranteed. $2MM available via incentives.
Joe Hawley, OL: Two years, $6MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Nick Folk, K: One year, $1.75MM. $750K guaranteed.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB: Two years, $3.3MM. $600K guaranteed.
Sealver Siliga, DT: One year, $1.1MM. $200K guaranteed.
Garrison Sanborn, LS: One year, minimum salary benefit. $50K guaranteed.
Ryan Griffin, QB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Jacquies Smith, DE: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Robert McClain, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Justin Trattou, DE: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Marqueston Huff, S: One year, $690K.
Tavaris Barnes, DE: One year, $540K.

While the Buccaneers passing offense ranked a respectable 12th in DVOA last season, the unit didn’t post many explosive plays, as Tampa Bay finished 24th in 20+ yard receptions and dead last in 40+ yard catches. Mike Evans, Adam Humphries, and Cameron Brate formed the foundation of a solid passing game, but a new dimension was clearly needed. Enter DeSean Jackson, who lead the league in yards per reception in 2016, the third time he’s done so in his nine-year career. Among receivers with at least 40 receptions last season, Jackson ranked third with 12.82 air yards per catch, meaning he’s able to get open down the field and not simply rely on yards after the catch. He also accounted for 145 yards and four first downs by drawing pass interference penalties, an underrated facet of his game. Although he’s on the wrong side of 30, Jackson is exactly what the Buccaneers offense needs, and he should be worth of every penny of a contract that makes him the ninth-highest-paid wideout in the NFL.

Joining Jackson as an offensive starter (at least for the first three games of the season) will be running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who earned the first multi-year contract of his career after averaging 4.3 yards per carry on 129 rushes a season ago. Rodgers, 27, touched the ball more than he had in any prior season, and was a workhorse for Tampa Bay in Weeks 5-7, rushing the ball 75 times during that span. He’ll be the Buccaneers’ lead back to begin the campaign while Doug Martin finishes a suspension, and Rodgers could keep the starting job for even longer, as general manager Jason Licht recently indicated Martin won’t be handed a role when he returns.

While the Bucs are comfortable rolling with Rodgers until Martin comes back, they surely won’t feel the same way if they’re forced to use new backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for any extended period of time. That being said, Fitzpatrick isn’t a disaster as a reserve option, especially at a price of only $3MM. Yes, Fitzpatrick posted the worst statistics of any starting quarterback not named Matt Barkley or Jared Goff in 2016, but he’s not being asked to start in Tampa Bay. If Jameis Winston is sidelined next year, Fitzpatrick should at least be able to keep the club’s offense afloat.

On defense, the Buccaneers acted quickly to re-sign defensive end William Gholston, who was said to be a priority for the team in free agency. At first glance, Gholston’s five-year contract appears to be a massive overpay, as his $5.5MM annual salary is exorbitant for a run-stuffer who ranked as a bottom-20 edge defender in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. But because Tampa Bay rarely employs signing bonuses, Gholston’s deal is essentially a one-year pact. All of his $7MM guarantee comes in 2017, and the Buccaneers could cut ties after the season without any dead money incurring on their cap. If Tampa is able to land a top-notch pass rusher in next year’s draft, I’d expect Gholston to be on the chopping block.

New defensive tackle Chris Baker will be lining up next to Gholston after the Bucs lured him away from the nation’s capital with a three-year agreement, and he should be able to help out a Tampa Bay run defense that took a major step backward under first-year defensive coordinator Mike Smith. While the Buccaneers’ pass defense improved from 26th in DVOA to sixth, the club’s prowess against the run slipped from ninth in DVOA to 26th, while Tampa’s defensive line ranked 24th in adjusted line yards. Baker is a stud in the run game, but he’s also adept at getting after opposing quarterbacks, as he ranked 11th among defensive tackles with 16 hurries last season.

Chris Conte keeps getting chances despite grading as one of the least capable safeties in the league for the duration of his career. Last season, PFF ranked Conte as the second-worst safety in the NFL, but the Buccaneers still re-signed him to a two-year pact. Thankfully, Tampa Bay isn’t asking Conte to play a full complement of snaps in 2017, as they’ve signed former Cowboy J.J. Wilcox and drafted Justin Evans in the second round. Wilcox, 26, only played half of Dallas’ defensive snaps a season ago, but had significant starting experience in 2014-15. Josh Robinson is back to help out in the secondary, as well, but most of his time will be spent as a gunner on special teams.

Tampa Bay signed kicker Nick Folk to hedge against Roberto Aguayo‘s struggles, and the move now seems prescient following Aguayo’ release. Although Tampa handed Folk a $750K guarantee, the club was only nominally on the hook for that money — had Folk been cut, he likely would’ve been picked up by another team, and the offset language in his deal would have freed the Bucs from his commitment. The Jets, Folk’s former employer, ranked dead last in special teams DVOA last season, but that wasn’t Folk’s fault, as he converted 87.1% of his kicks (including 50% from 50+ yards) and gave New York 0.3 points of field position. He didn’t do well on kickoffs, however, as he ranked just 23rd among kickers with 39 touchbacks.

Notable losses:

While the Buccaneers are losing a number of offensive players in Vincent Jackson, Russell Shepard, Cecil Shorts, and Brandon Myers, it’s difficult to say the club will miss any of them all that much, as that foursome combined for only 20% of Tampa Bay’s targets in 2016. Shepard led the group with 40 targets and 23 receptions, and he’s the only one that’s landed a new contract (with the division rival Panthers). The Buccaneers signed DeSean Jackson to replace Shepard, who ranked a below-average 65th among wideouts with at least 40 targets with a 57.5% catch rate.

Although Jackson hasn’t yet found a new home, he’s given no indication that he plans to retire. Now 34 years old, Jackson played out the entirety of his five-year deal with the Buccaneers, and though he was extremely productive during the first three seasons of the pact, injuries wrecked his 2015-16 campaigns. As of March, Jackson planned to continue his career, and while it doesn’t appear he’s a candidate to re-sign with Tampa Bay, it’s possible he could find a contract as the regular season approaches, although it may require a team suffering an injury on their wide receiver depth chart.

Mike Glennon meshed with Jackson back in 2013, helping the veteran receiver 78-catch, 1,200+ yard season — but in the next three years, Glennon managed only 214 pass attempts as the Buccaneers instead turned to Josh McCown and Jameis Winston. Entering his age-27 season, Glennon clearly wanted to hit the open market and find a starting job (although it’s unclear if he’ll actually get that opportunity with the Bears). But Tampa didn’t let Glennon go without a fight: the club made numerous attempts to re-sign Glennon, and even offered him to make him the league’s highest-paid backup quarterback with an annual salary of $8MM.

On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers parted with ways with two defensive backs, allowing safety Bradley McDougald to leave via free agency while releasing cornerback Alterraun Verner. The decision to cut ties with Verner was the correct one, as he was barely contributing on defense and was scheduled to carry a $6.5MM cap charge in 2017. But Tampa might have considered retaining McDougald, who is still only 26 years old and signed for just one year with Seattle. The Buccaneers essentially chose J.J. Wilcox, and while PFF assigned Wilcox a higher grade, McDougald had a much larger sample size (nearly double the snaps).

Tampa has used draft choices on linebackers in each of the past two seasons (Devante Bond in 2016 and Kendell Beckwith in 2017), meaning there was no role for veteran Daryl Smith. Smith, now 35, played a two-down role for the Buccaneers last season, playing 45% of the club’s defensive snaps behind Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. Given his age and his mediocre performance, Smith has probably hit the end of the line, and if so, he’s posted an excellent career. He started 184 games over 13 seasons, and ranks as the 11th-most valuable member of the 2004 draft class by Pro Football Reference’s approximate value metric.

The Buccaneers’ most recent notable transaction was waiving kicker Roberto Aguayo, whom the club infamously selected in the second round of the 2016 draft after trading 132 cents on the dollar to move up. The choice wasn’t defensible at the time, as Justis Mosqueda of Setting the Edge recently detailed Aguayo’s collegiate struggles from 40+ yards should dissuaded Tampa Bay from drafting the Florida State product. But good on general manager Jason Licht for admitting his mistake and cutting his losses. Even better, the Bears curiously claimed Aguayo off waivers, clearing his partially guaranteed base salary from the Bucs’ 2017 books.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 107; LB Kendell Beckwith) from the Jets in exchange for a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 125) and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 204; CB Derrick Jones).
Acquired a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 223; DT Steve Tu’ikolovatu) from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 237; WR Isaiah Ford) and a 2018 seventh-round pick.

Draft picks:

1-19: O.J. Howard, TE (Alabama)
2-50: Justin Evans, S (Texas A&M)
3-84: Chris Godwin, WR (Penn State)
3-107: Kendell Beckwith, LB (LSU)
5-162: Jeremy McNichols, RB (Boise State)
7-223: Steve Tu’ikolovatu, DT (USC)

Just seven tight ends have been selected in the first round over the past ten years, and only Eric Ebron — chosen 10th overall in 2014 — was picked higher than O.J. Howard. The Buccaneers, of course, already boast one excellent tight end in Cameron Brate, who finished fourth in DYAR last season while leading all tight ends with eight receiving touchdowns. Tampa Bay ran two tight end sets on 23% of its offensive plays in 2016 (7% above league average), and the percentage figures to increase during the upcoming campaign. Howard will likely begin his career as an in-line tight end, as Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reports he’s already made a “noticeable difference” with his blocking.

Left tackle Donovan Smith, particularly, needs all the help he can get, as the Buccaneers ranked 24th in adjusted line yards when running towards the left tackle and 26th when running around the left end. Because Smith has struggled so much through two NFL seasons (No. 65 tackle in 2016, per PFF), it’s fair to wonder why Tampa Bay didn’t consider an offensive lineman such as Garret Bolles or Cam Robinson with the No. 19 selection. Jameis Winston took the most hits of any quarterback last season (87), per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac, and protecting their young quarterback should be the Buccaneer’s top priority. However, Winston posted the third-best DVOA against pressure last year, according to Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, so perhaps Tampa doesn’t feel investing in its offensive line is all that important.

Second-round safety Justin Evans could end up playing the most snaps of any Buccaneers rookie, as he’s currently projected to start in the back end (although Keith Tandy could have something to say about that). Chris Godwin — whom Matt Harmon of Perception Reception fame called the draft’s most underrated receiver — and Jeremy McNichols will likely begin their careers pushed down the offensive depth chart, but injuries could allow them playing time as the season progresses. Kendell Beckwith is still recovering from a torn ACL and could potentially “redshirt” during his rookie season. Steve Tu’ikolovatu is huge and (relatively) old.

Extensions and restructures:

J.R. Sweezy, G: Restructured contract. Converted 2017 $2.5MM base salary and $2.5MM roster bonus to $3.75MM base salary, with $1.25MM available via incentives. Base salaries reduced in 2018-20.

Other:

Extended defensive coordinator Mike Smith.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for WR Mike Evans ($13.258MM).
Learned CB Jude Adjei-Barimah will miss 2017 season (patellar fracture).
Signed 14 undrafted rookie free agents.

The Buccaneers’ decision to exercise Mike Evans‘ 2018 option was a complete formality, so let’s use this space to toss out some Evans stats. Since 1970, Evans is fifth among three-year receivers in receiving yards, sixth in receptions, and seventh in touchdowns. In 2016, he was especially proficient, as he reduced his drop percentage from 7.4% in 2015 to just 4.1%. He ranked sixth in DYAR, and was one of only two pass-catchers to post a PFF grade over 90.0 (the other being Julio Jones). Evans was also particularly clutch, as he lead the NFL with 80 receptions that went for a first down or touchdown (29 of those came on third or fourth down, also tops among wideouts). Did we mention that he doesn’t turn 24 until next week?

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Gerald McCoy, DT: $13,750,000
DeSean Jackson, WR: $12,500,000
Brent Grimes, CB: $8,000,000
William Gholston, DE: $7,000,000
Doug Martin, RB: $7,000,000
Jameis Winston, QB: $6,913,985
Robert Ayers, DL: $6,250,000
Chris Baker, DT: $6,000,000
Lavonte David, LB: $6,000,000
Mike Evans, WR: $4,655,478

Although the NFC South boast the conference champion, the division appears wide open — ESPN’s Football Power Index projects each team in the NFC South to win between 7.7 and 9.3 games. The Buccaneers are at the bottom of the projected divisional standings, but there’s no reason they can’t compete for the division title or — at the least — a wild card slot.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

By Rory Parks | at August 18, 2017 9:40 am

The Ravens narrowly missed the playoffs last year, blowing a golden opportunity to put themselves in the driver’s seat for a divisional title in Week 16 before allowing the Steelers to drive the length of the field in the game’s waning moments. That was essentially the story of the season for Baltimore, as missed opportunities and fourth quarter collapses turned what might have been a successful campaign into a disappointment.

Depending on who you ask, the offseason has not been much better. The Ravens focused most of their attention, both in free agency and in the draft, on the defensive side of the ball when the offense sorely needed help. While Jeremy Maclin surprisingly falling into their laps late in the spring helped to mitigate that somewhat, the offensive line is still a major question mark. It’s also fair to wonder how wise it is for the team to depend so heavily on third-year wideout Breshad Perriman considering that he missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury, had an up-and-down 2016, and is currently being held out of training camp with hamstring soreness (thus halting the momentum he had built in spring and in the early stages of camp).

The Ravens have a fair amount of talent and could make some noise in the AFC North, though their recent spate of injuries is threatening to derail the season before it starts. One might also ask whether the conservative and predictable play-calling of offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and defensive coordinator Dean Pees will get the most out of their talent, and whether a mixed bag of an offseason will be enough to get Baltimore back to the postseason.

Notable signings:

Brandon Williams, DT: Five years, $52.5MM. $24.5MM guaranteed.
Tony Jefferson, S: Four years, $34MM. $19MM guaranteed. $3MM available via incentives.
Jeremy Maclin, WR: Two years, $11MM. $6MM guaranteed. $3MM available via incentives.
Brandon Carr, CB: Four years, $24MM. $4MM guaranteed.
Danny Woodhead, RB: Three years, $8.8MM. $3.25MM guaranteed.
Anthony Levine, S: Three years, $4.2MM. $1.3MM guaranteed.
Lardarius Webb, S: Three years, $6.3MM. $1.2MM guaranteed. $1.4MM available annually via incentives. Had previously been released.
Michael Campanaro, WR: One year, $1.2MM. $250K guaranteed. $800K available via incentives.
James Hurst, T: One year, $1.2MM. $250K guaranteed.
Austin Howard, T: Three years, $16MM. Guarantees unknown.
Ryan Jensen, G: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Terrance West, RB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Brandon Boykin, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Larry Donnell, TE: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Thaddeus Lewis, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Bobby Rainey, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Trevin Wade, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Griff Whalen, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit.

The Ravens landed two key offensive pieces late in the offseason in Maclin and Austin Howard, but until that point, they had invested the vast majority of their assets into the defensive side of the ball. One of the most curious moves of the offseason was the massive payday Baltimore doled out to Brandon Williams. Williams is a terrific player to be sure, but he’s not a generational talent, and Baltimore has a quality defensive tackle in Michael Pierce that might have filled in capably for Williams at a fraction of the price. Plus, the Ravens have always been able to find quality defensive linemen. It has been more of a struggle to find quality offensive pieces, and the fact that Baltimore spent so lavishly on Williams and Tony Jefferson while letting right tackle Ricky Wagner walk in free agency and ignoring free agent wideouts like Alshon Jeffery and Terrelle Pryor — who both signed relatively inexpensive deals — certainly raised some eyebrows.

Luckily for the Ravens, it may have worked out anyway, though it’s hard to say it was by design. No one expected a receiver like Maclin to become available when he did, and while Howard could be a solid replacement for Wagner, he is coming off an injury-plagued season in which his performance took a noticeable dip. Danny Woodhead, who for a long time was Baltimore’s big offensive acquisition, offers a nice complement to the bruising running style of Terrance West, and if he can stay healthy — a big “if” for players wearing purple and black these days — he should be a big contributor as a receiver out of the backfield and will surely line up in the slot a fair amount.

Jefferson will join last year’s big free agent splurge, Eric Weddle, to form arguably the best safety tandem in the game, and the Ravens also signed Brandon Carr to bolster its cornerback corps, which has been thin in recent seasons and which has really suffered when No. 1 corner Jimmy Smith has been forced to sit out due to injury. Unfortunately for Baltimore, sophomore corner Tavon Young, who was excellent in his rookie season, tore his ACL and will miss all of 2017, which precipitated the Brandon Boykin signing. Maurice Canady, another sophomore corner who enjoyed a terrific spring and a strong start to training camp, was the favorite to replace Young, but he, too, went down with a potentially serious knee injury, so it looks as if Smith and Carr will man the perimeter while Boykin or stalwart Lardarius Webb will line up in the slot (though first-round draft choice Marlon Humphrey could replace Carr later in the season). That sounds like a decent enough group of CBs, but one more injury could lead to the same problems in coverage that the Ravens have experienced of late.

Nonetheless, the defense looks strong as a whole, and with the influx of young athleticism that the team added to that side of the ball in the draft, the only thing holding that unit back (outside of injury) is Pees. Wideouts Maclin, Mike Wallace, and Perriman offer considerable talent and complementary skill-sets on the offensive side of the ball, and if the Ravens can find some production from the tight end spot — see below — and if Joe Flacco can overcome his back injury, Baltimore should be in pretty good shape.

Kamar Aiken, WR
Kyle Arrington, CB: Released
Vlad Ducasse, G
Matt Elam, S
Lawrence Guy, DL
Marqueston Huff, S: Tender withdrawn
Kyle Juszczyk, FB
Kendrick Lewis, S: Released
Chris Lewis-Harris, CB
Zach Orr, LB: Retired (now attempting comeback)
Dennis Pitta: Released
Jerraud Powers, CB: Retired
Jumal Rolle, S: Tender withdrawn
Steve Smith, WR: Retired
John Urschel, C: Retired
Ricky Wagner, T
Shareece Wright, CB: Released

Many of the Ravens’ losses will not be missed, as they were marginal starters or roster filler. Steve Smith‘s production should be more than adequately replaced by Maclin and a more seasoned Perriman, and while Zach Orr‘s retirement (?) was an unpleasant surprise, he is hardly irreplaceable. The surprise retirement that arguably hurt the team more was that of John Urschel. His departure from the game, along with the subsequent season-ending injuries to Alex Lewis and Nico Siragusa, have left a massive void at left guard that has led the team to consider signing Jeremy Zuttah (Zuttah would play center and shift Ryan Jensen to left guard). Zuttah was a turnstile in 2016, he does not fit in a power-running scheme, and the Ravens thought so little of him that they traded him to the 49ers earlier this offseason for the right to move up 12 spots in the sixth round of the draft (Zuttah was later released by San Francisco and is currently a free agent).

Much has been made of Dennis Pitta‘s release, which was precipitated by yet another hip injury, and the hole that will leave in the Ravens’ offense. In reality, although Pitta did haul in 86 catches last year, very few of his receptions went for significant yardage, and he was more of a dump-off option (in a dump-off heavy offense) in 2016. The Ravens’ tight end corps is far from reliable, given that Ben Watson is 36 and is coming off a torn ACL, Crockett Gillmore suffered a season-ending knee injury, Maxx Williams has had difficult staying healthy in his young career, and Darren Waller managed to get himself suspended for the entire 2017 season. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue that Pitta will be missed from an on-the-field perspective, as he had no explosiveness in 2016 and his YAC was non-existent. He was a fan favorite and it is a shame that his career has been (presumably) cut short by a series of unfortunate hip injuries, but it was time for Baltimore to move on.

Aside from the above-mentioned departure of Wagner and Urschel’s retirement, the only notable losses the Ravens sustained this offseason were due to injury, not free agency.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 186) from the 49ers in exchange for C Jeremy Zuttah and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 198).
Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 74) from the Eagles in exchange for DT Timmy Jernigan and a 2017 third-round pick (No. 99).

Draft picks:

1-16: Marlon Humphrey, CB (Alabama)
2-47: Tyus Bowser, LB (Houston)
3-74: Chris Wormley, DT (Michigan)
3-78: Tim Williams, LB (Alabama)
4-122: Nico Siragusa, OL (San Diego State)
5-159: Jermaine Eluemunor, OL (Texas A&M)
6-186: Chuck Clark, S (Virginia Tech)

The Ravens waited until the fourth round to select an offensive player in this year’s draft, and while their fourth-round selection, Siragusa, was a quality pick, he will miss the season with a torn ACL. Nonetheless, the team began making a concerted effort in 2016 to infuse its defense with sorely-needed speed and athleticism, and that was never going to be a one-year project. Adding Bowser and Williams should be a boost to a flagging pass rush, and Bowser has looked like a three-down back in training camp. Those rookies, along with second-year linebacker Matt Judon and the aging but still effective Terrell Suggs, should allow the Ravens to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback in 2017.

The selection of Humphrey puzzled many observers, as the Ravens could have selected an offensive play-maker like O.J. Howard even though their top wide receiver targets were off the board long before Baltimore was on the clock. However, Humphrey has plenty of promise as an outside corner, and the same analysts who criticized the team for failing to select an offensive talent were also quick to point out in recent seasons that the Ravens needed to address their thin secondary. While Humphrey is not suited to play in the slot, the injuries to slot corners Young and Canady underscore the need to continuously restock the defensive backfield, and Jimmy Smith’s injury history — and the Ravens’ struggles when he is unable to suit up — made Humphrey a solid choice. Thus far, he has validated his draft status with a strong showing in spring and in training camp.

Eluemunor was selected as a raw talent that the team hoped to bring along slowly, but he could be thrust into the starting lineup sooner rather than later considering the holes that the Ravens have on their O-line. Indeed, he could emerge as one of the surprise impact players of 2017 if he can somehow start living up to his potential right away.

Extensions and restructures:

Jimmy Smith, CB: Restructured contract. Created $5.15MM in cap space by converting $7.725MM in 2017 base salary into signing bonus.
Ben Watson, TE: Accepted pay cut. Reduced 2017 base salary from $3MM to $1.25MM ($750K guaranteed). Incentives can bring total back to $3MM.

The Ravens were forced to restructure Jimmy Smith’s contract for the second straight year to give themselves a little breathing room, especially since they will probably need to sign at least one more offensive lineman before the regular season begins. The team has been tight against the cap for the past several seasons, and contracts like the one they handed out to Williams have exacerbated that problem. Baltimore actually has so much D-line depth at the moment that it will probably need to trade at least one quality player in the coming weeks, which further emphasizes the point that it could have spent its money more wisely.

Other:

Hired former Bills OC Greg Roman as senior offensive assistant/tight ends coach.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for LB C.J. Mosley ($8.718MM).
Learned RB Kenneth Dixon would miss the 2017 season (torn meniscus). Dixon had been suspended four games (PEDs).
Learned TE Crockett Gillmore would miss the 2017 season (torn meniscus).
Learned OL Alex Lewis would miss the 2017 season (shoulder surgery).
Learned OL Nico Siragusa would miss the 2017 season (torn ACL).
Learned CB Tavon Young would miss the 2017 season (torn ACL).
Learned TE Darren Waller was suspended at least one year (substance abuse).
Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents.

The theme of the Ravens’ offseason has been injuries. We have already touched on most of the injuries referenced here, but the Dixon injury will also hurt the team in a big way. While West is a competent back, and Woodhead offers solid ability as a receiver out of the backfield, Dixon has explosive playmaking ability that the Ravens will sorely miss in 2017. The team brought in Greg Roman to strengthen a run game that was among the league’s worst in 2017, but his task becomes considerably more difficult in light of Dixon’s torn meniscus. At this point, UDFA Taquan Mizzell might be the second-best back on the roster, and Baltimore could look into adding a player like Ryan Mathews to replace Dixon.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Joe Flacco, QB: $24,550,000
Jimmy Smith, CB: $12,600,000
Marshal Yanda, G: $9,125,000
Mike Wallace, WR: $8,000,000
Terrell Suggs, DE: $6,950,000
Brandon Williams, DT: $6,000,000
Eric Weddle, S: $5,750,000
Tony Jefferson, S: $5,500,000
Ronnie Stanley, T: $4,655,530
Eugene Monroe, T: $4,400,000 (dead money)

The Ravens are clearly a team with some holes, particularly along the O-line. Tight end and running back are also a bit of question mark, and if Flacco is not 100%, Baltimore is not going anywhere, Colin Kaepernick or no Colin Kaepernick.

But the Ravens also have talent. They have quality receivers (if they can stay healthy), and they have all the makings of a top-5 defense, which they will probably need to rely on heavily in 2017. The biggest obstacle for the defense, aside from health, might be Pees, who has struggled to get the most out of his defenses in his career as a defensive coordinator, and whose conservative philosophies led to some of the team’s late game collapses last year.

Luckily for Baltimore, their AFC North foes also have some serious flaws, and the Ravens have enough talent to be competitive in every game they play. If they can win one or two more of the “toss-up” games that they dropped last season, they could find themselves back in the playoffs, despite a postseason that generated as many groans as grins.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Mathews

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 5:29 pm

The Eagles finally ended the NFL’s longest charade today, releasing veteran running back Ryan Mathews months after it became clear they’d do so. Philadelphia had reason to wait, of course, as now that Mathews has received medical clearance, the club is off the hook for $1.15MM in injury protection.

Mathews, a first-round selection back in 2010, has mostly been defined by his lack of availability through seven NFL campaigns. He’s appeared in all 16 games just one time, and has missed roughly a quarter of the 112 total games in which he could’ve played. Additionally, Mathews is now on the wrong side of 30, and is hitting an age when some running backs break down.

Those negative attributes are obvious, but Mathews still has quite a bit to offer interested NFL clubs. In fact, he’s perhaps the perfect NFL backup running back. Here’s why:

Production

Given that Mathews has missed so much time during his career, it’s more informative to assess his production on a per-play basis rather than in the aggregate. Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) is a Football Outsiders metric that measures value on a rate basis, and can be applied to either team or individual performance. In seven NFL seasons, Mathews has ranked among the top-20 running backs in DVOA five times, including a No. 3 finish in 2015. So while Mathews’ counting statistics might not be all that impressive (he’s crossed the vaunted 1,000-yard threshold only twice), he’s been extremely valuable when he’s been on the field.

Success rate is another Football Outsiders metric that’s often helpful when evaluating running backs, at it determines how well a back keeps an offense moving. In general, a run will deemed a success if a back gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% of the needed yards on second down, and 100% of the needed yardage on third down.

Different situations can adjust those percentage tiers, but overall the formula is a good indicator of how well a back is keeping an offense “on schedule,” as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com writes. Mathews grades incredibly well based on success rate: In his seven NFL campaigns, he’s finished as a top-25 back in success rate six times, and ranked among the top-10 twice (2013 and 2015).

While he’s not an above-average pass blocker, Mathews can be useful in the passing game. He’s averaged 26 receptions per season during his career, and even reached 50 catches in 2011. Since entering the league in 2010, Mathews ranks eighth among all running backs with a 79.3% catch rate on 226 targets, so he can be relied on as a passing game weapon. Fumbles have been an issue for Mathews, however, as he ranks first among NFL backs with 21 fumbles since 2010.

As a backup running back, Mathews would — by definition — see his touches reduced. Not only would that perhaps allow Mathews to stay healthy, but he can still remain productive when he is called upon. Not being asked to play starter’s snaps would help both Mathews and the team that signs him.

Scheme Fit

When the Eagles signed Mathews prior to the 2015 season, NFL Films producer Greg Cosell called him a “decisive downhill runner,” and Fran Duffy of PhiladelphiaEagles.com explained why those traits worked so well for what was — at the time — a zone-blocking-Eagles run game. But Mathews can conceivably fit in any number of offenses, as Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus explained to me.

“I think [Mathews] can be a useful member of a backfield,” said Monson. “I actually think he’s quite scheme diverse and pretty versatile as a back, so he should have options.”

Additionally, Mathews has played under a number of offensive minds who are still employed in various roles throughout the league. That list includes Mike McCoy (Broncos offensive coordinator), Rob Chudzinski (Colts OC), Pat Shurmur (Vikings OC), Hal Hunter (Browns offensive line coach), and Jason Michael (Titans quarterbacks coach), meaning there’s no shortage of offensive coaches who have firsthand experience with Mathews.

Cost

Coming off an injury-plagued season in 2014, Mathews landed a three-year deal worth $11MM ($5MM guaranteed) with the Eagles. As he hits free agency for the second time in his career, Mathews won’t come anywhere near that total: while he’s offered solid production on a rate basis over the past two seasons, he’s also two years older and just recovered from a serious neck injury.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Mathews can only score a minimum salary benefit deal in the coming weeks. Such a contract would allow a club to pay Mathews at the seven-year veteran rate of $900K while only using $615K in cap space. Mathews could also receive a signing bonus of up to $80K.

Recent contracts for veteran running backs include Jacquizz Rodgers (two years, $3.3MM), Robert Turbin (two years, $2.7MM), and Lance Dunbar (one year, $1.5MM). Dunbar is probably the best comparable given that he’s spent most of the past two seasons dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness, but he’s also three years younger than Mathews. Whichever team signs Mathews should plan on taking on an eminently affordable salary, and cap space won’t be a barrier.

Signing Mathews would also eliminate another potential opportunity cost — the draft pick capital it may require to trade for a running back. Earlier today, I examined several backs that could be dealt in the near future, including Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, and T.J. Yeldon, all of whom are probably upgrades on Mathews, but all of whom will require the sacrifice of a draft pick. For clubs that aren’t inclined to trade away future value, signing Mathews would cost only money, not picks.

Market

Mathews became the best available free agent running back the second he was released by the Eagles. While other veteran options include Rashad Jennings, DeAngelo Williams, and James Starks, none offer the combination of talent and relative youth that does Mathews. Any team looking for running back help should instantly vault Mathews to their top of their free agent lists.

With that said, here’s a look at several clubs that could make sense as a landing spot for Mathews:

Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Dixon was already going to miss the first four games of the season after being suspended, but now he’ll be sidelined for the entire 2017 campaign after undergoing knee surgery. Terrance West looks like Baltimore’s bell-cow, while Danny Woodhead will play on passing downs. Mathews could give the Ravens another viable option in the backfield, and Baltimore’s coaches “have a lot of respect for” Mathews, as Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tweets.

Detroit Lions: On an NFL-low 350 rushing attempts, the Lions finished 27th in yards per carry, 25th in DVOA, and 31st in adjusted line yards last season. Detroit has already upgraded its offensive line by signing Ricky Wagner and T.J. Lang, but the club is still relying on Ameer Abdullah, Dwayne Washington, Zach Zenner, and free agent addition Matt Asiata at running back. The Lions have reportedly talked with Rashad Jennings, but Mathews is a better player.

Los Angeles Chargers: Back to where it all began? With new head coach Anthony Lynn in town, the Chargers figure to lean heavily on the run, meaning Melvin Gordon could need a breather every once in awhile. Los Angeles’ reserves behind Gordon — Kenneth Farrow, Branden Oliver, Kenjon Barner, Andre Williams — are nothing to write home about, so Mathews could help out, especially as a pass-catcher.

Miami Dolphins: Mathews makes sense for the Dolphins, opines Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald (Twitter link), especially given that Jay Ajayi is recovering from a concussion. Ajayi, who dealt with knee injuries in college, needs a solid backup behind him in case injury issues crop up again. Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake (also battling a concussion) are interesting players, but Mathews is a more known commodity.

New York Giants: Big Blue ranked 26th in rushing DVOA last season, and the only investment they’ve made at the running back position since has been fourth-round rookie Wayne Gallman. While the Giants have made noise about Paul Perkins serving as a three-down back, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports Perkins “hasn’t blown anyone away” at camp, meaning the club could be searching for reinforcements.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Franchise-tagged running back Le’Veon Bell hasn’t yet reported to training camp, and while the Steelers may expect him to show up before the regular season starts, Pittsburgh might not want to rely too heavily on Fitzgerald Toussaint and rookie James Conner. Playing behind one the league’s best offensive lines, Mathews could have success with the Steelers.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

8 comments Baltimore Ravens Detroit Lions Los Angeles Chargers Miami Dolphins New York Giants PFR Originals Pittsburgh Steelers Ryan Mathews

Top 30 NFL Trade Candidates

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 10:00 am

While the NFL isn’t a trade-happy league like the NBA or MLB, deals are becoming more common as each season progresses. Draft pick swaps will always dominate any listing of NFL trades, deals involving veteran players aren’t as rare as they once were. Seven trades involving veteran players have occurred since the draft ended — at this time last year, only one such deal had gone down. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted in his excellent salary cap book, Crunching Numbers, trades are likely to become ordinary as front offices are taken over by younger, more out-of-the-box thinkers.

The players listed below as trade candidates aren’t ranked in any specific order — rather, we’ve attempted a league-wide look at players who could conceivably be on the move in the coming weeks or months. Contract status, overall ability, scheme fit, age, and coaching staff alterations all play a role in value, and each trait was factored into the likelihood of an individual player being dealt.

As always, you can find PFR’s complete list of 2017 NFL Trades right here.

Quarterback

A.J. McCarron, Bengals
Brock Osweiler, Browns

Although the Bengals haven’t openly shopped A.J. McCarron, they haven’t completely sealed off the idea of dealing their backup quarterback. The asking price is extremely high, however, as Cincinnati reportedly wants a first-round draft choice for McCarron. An unidentified team offered a second-rounder for McCarron this offseason, and the Bengals declined, an indication of the value the club places on McCarron.

Most likely, Cincinnati will need an injury to strike — and a club to get desperate — in order to meet its demands. In 2016, for example, the Vikings shipped a first-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for Sam Bradford after incumbent signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater went down. That situation presented the perfect opportunity for Philadelphia to reap compensation for Bradford, as Minnesota was a contending team with an immediate need under center. Bradford offered much more NFL experience than does McCarron, so a trade of the Bengals No. 2 quarterback remains unlikely.

Brock Osweiler, meanwhile, has a chance to act as the Browns’ Week 1 starter, but he’s not a long-term option for a club that used a second-round pick on DeShone Kizer. Cleveland has already rejected at least one trade offer for Osweiler this offseason, but it simply doesn’t make sense for the team to retain him on their roster. Having already acquired a second-round choice in exchange for taking on Osweiler’s contract, the Browns should convert most of his base salary guarantee into a signing bonus (thus reducing the cap hit for any interested parties) and send him to a quarterback-needy club.

Running back

Jeremy Hill, Bengals
Carlos Hyde, 49ers
Matt Jones, Redskins
Charles Sims, Buccaneers
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

New coaching staffs and pending free agency are key factors in labeling a player a trade candidate, and Carlos Hyde fits into both those buckets. Reports near the draft indicated the new 49ers regime wasn’t sold on Hyde, who has just one year left on his rookie contract, and the club has added several running backs this year, including free agent Tim Hightower and draft choice Joe Williams. Squarely in the midst of a rebuild, San Francisco has no reason to hold onto Hyde if it doesn’t plan to re-sign him, and early indications are Hyde hasn’t been offered an extension.

Charles Sims could play a key role for the Buccaneers while Doug Martin is suspended for the first three games of the season, but his long-term role with Tampa Bay is unclear. General manager Jason Licht said earlier this year that Martin “looked as good as [he’s] ever seen him,” and I’d guess Martin will reclaim the Bucs’ starting job once he returns. Until that point, Tampa Bay could probably get by with a committee of Jacquizz Rodgers, Peyton Barber, and Jeremy McNichols if it decides it can get a draft pick for Sims, who is scheduled for free agency in 2018.

There are enough teams around the NFL looking for depth at running back that each of these backs should be able to create some sort of trade market. Speculative fits: Jeremy Hill, Giants; Hyde, Ravens; Matt Jones, Lions; Sims, Steelers; T.J. Yeldon, Chargers.

Wide receiver

Phillip Dorsett, Colts
Cody Latimer, Broncos

Despite being selected 29th overall just two years ago, Phillip Dorsett appears to be in danger of not earning a Colts roster spot. He’s behind former undrafted free agent Chester Rogers and free agent signee Kamar Aiken on Indianapolis’ depth chart, and new general manager Chris Ballard doesn’t have any allegiance to the former Miami wideout. Eric Galko of the Sporting News (Twitter link) suggested the Jets — who recently lost Quincy Enunwa for the year — could be a fit for Dorsett, while the Bills, 49ers, Panthers, and Browns also make some deal of sense.

Garrett Celek/Vance McDonald, 49ers
Zach Miller, Bears
Richard Rodgers, Packers

The Bears reportedly told rival teams at this year’s scouting combine they’d be open to trading Zach Miller if they drafted a tight end, and draft a tight end they did. Chicago selected Ashland’s Adam Shaheen in the second round, and also signed former Dolphins tight end Dion Sims to a three-year, $18MM deal. An acquiring club would take on $2.5MM by trading for Miller, with $1MM of that total tied to per-game roster bonuses. Given that the Bears like fellow tight end Daniel Brown (who is just 25 years old as opposed to Miller’s 31), they could be motivated to make a deal.

Vance McDonald, meanwhile, is potentially the most obvious trade candidate listed here, as 49ers general manager John Lynch admitted that he dangled McDonald in talks. Previous San Francisco GM Trent Baalke inked McDonald to a five-year, $35MM extension that begins in 2017, and other teams are unlikely to be interested in taking on that contract. And because the 49ers have so many tight ends, Garrett Celek might be available as well, as Jason La Canfora of CBSports.com hinted at Monday.

Unlike McDonald, Richard Rodgers hasn’t been mentioned in any trade rumors, so his inclusion is completely speculative. But the Packers made investments at tight end this offseason, signing both Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks to multi-year deals, and with Rodgers entering a contract year, Green Bay could conceivably look to move him. Kendricks is already playing ahead of Rodgers, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, and has never spent time on special teams. The Packers don’t use two tight end sets much (just 12% of plays, 31st in the league), so rostering three offense-only tight ends may not work.

Offensive line

John Greco, Browns
Jason Kelce, Eagles

Offensive linemen are tough to acquire this late in the offseason given that continuity is such a large part of the front five, but trades do happen: Just last week, the Eagles shipped guard Allen Barbre to the Broncos, and he’s already taking starting snaps. Another Philadelphia lineman, center Jason Kelce, has been on the trade block for some time, but the Eagles may not want to make any more offensive line trades after moving Barbre. Kelce has four years remaining on his contract, but an acquiring club wouldn’t be taking on any guarantees. The Ravens, who desperately need help on the interior, should see if Kelce is still available.

Defensive line

Arik Armstead, 49ers
Star Lotulelei, Panthers
Steve McLendon, Jets
Sheldon Richardson, Jets

Any inkling the Panthers may have had to trade Star Lotulelei likely evaporated when fellow defensive tackle Vernon Butler suffered a knee sprain in Carolina’s first preseason contest. Even if Butler only misses a few games, the Panthers aren’t going to erode their defensive line depth by moving Lotulelei. That’s not to say dealing him wouldn’t be the right move for the long haul, though. Given that Carolina has already locked up Kawann Short to an extension, it will be hard-pressed to keep Lotulelei when his contract expires next spring.

Call it rebuilding, call it tanking — the Jets are not trying to win in 2017. Therefore, it makes so sense for Gang Green to keep defenders like Steve McLendon or Sheldon Richardson on the roster, especially if there’s a market for either player. General manager Mike Maccagnan‘s goal of acquiring some sort of substantial draft pick compensation is a fool’s errand, as no club is going to sacrifice a high pick for a mercurial pass rusher with effort and contract questions.

Either of McLendon or Richardson should be of interest to the Saints, who are still figuring out how to replace Nick Fairley. Other teams with needs along the defensive line include the Dolphins, Colts, Broncos, Raiders, Lions, and Packers, the latter of whom has recently lost Letroy Guion (release) and Montravius Adams (short-term injury).

Edge defender

Jeremiah Attaochu, Chargers
Adrian Clayborn/Brooks Reed/Derrick Shelby, Falcons
Kony Ealy, Patriots
Aaron Lynch, 49ers

Hat tip to Justis Mosqueda of Setting the Edge (Twitter link) for tossing out both Jeremiah Attaochu and Aaron Lynch as possible trade targets for the Lions, who on Sunday lost one of their best edge rushers in Kerry Hyder. Attaochu left the Chargers’ preseason game with a hamstring yesterday, so he may no longer be an option, but Lynch is an intriguing fit for Detroit. Still only 24 years old, Lynch managed 34.5 quarterback hurries as recently as 2015, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac, but has since dealt with injuries and a suspension.

Listing all three of Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed, and Derrick Shelby is admittedly cheating, but the Falcons might have too many edge rushers. Depth is never a bad thing, to be sure, but Atlanta probably isn’t going to keep more than nine defensive linemen. Undrafted rookie J’Terius Jones has posted a solid showing during camp, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, and could make the final squad, meaning a veteran would likely get pushed out.

Kony Ealy posted the best game of his career in Super Bowl 50 as a member of the Panthers, but the former second-round pick has quietly been a disappointment during his three-year career. He’s managed only 14 total sacks, and performed terribly against the run in 2016, something Patriots head coach Bill Belichick won’t abide. New England essentially acquired Ealy for free, as it only moved down eight spots in the draft to pick up the 25-year-old. Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reported last week that Ealy is in a “legitimate fight” to earn a Patriots roster spot.

Linebacker

Stephone Anthony, Saints
Mychal Kendricks, Eagles
Reggie Ragland, Bills

Stephone Anthony and Mychal Kendricks have been visibly on the trade block for some time, but Reggie Ragland could conceivably be dealt out of Buffalo before he ever plays an NFL down. The Bills aren’t quite going full Jets just yet, but they’re clearly planning for the future, as they traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby last week in exchange for lesser players and (more importantly) 2018 draft picks. Ragland, who was chosen in the second round a year ago and missed his entire rookie season with injury, is playing behind both Preston Brown and Gerald Hodges, and may not have a place in new head coach Sean McDermott‘s scheme.

Defensive back

Delvin Breaux, Saints
Kyle Fuller, Bears
Joe Haden, Browns
Trumaine Johnson, Rams
Kenny Vaccaro, Saints

Delvin Breaux admittedly wouldn’t have been on this list before a report indicating that the Saints are in fact shopping him, and while New Orleans has a bit more cornerback depth after selecting Marshon Lattimore in the first round, it doesn’t make much sense to trade Breaux when his value is at its lowest following an injury-plagued 2016 campaign. Vaccaro, on the other hand, is coming off his third excellent season in four years and has only one year left on his deal. If the Saints don’t reach an extension with him before the season, they could explore trading Vaccaro, especially after using second-round picks on Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

The Rams have been discussing a Trumaine Johnson trade ever since placing the franchise tag on him in March, but despite reported interest from the Browns, Saints, and Steelers, no deal has been made. Johnson is now the league’s highest-paid corner after being franchised for two consecutive seasons, and Los Angeles doesn’t appear likely to retain him beyond 2017. Still, the Rams might be reticent to trade Johnson after dealing fellow corner E.J. Gaines to the Bills last week.

Kyle Fuller missed all of last season with a knee injury, and the Bears are counting on him for next season (or thereafter). Chicago signed free agents Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper this offseason, and subsequently declined Fuller’s 2018 fifth-year option. A rival club could be willing to take a chance on his draft pedigree, but his recent injury history could scare teams off.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Production

Scheme Fit

Cost

Market

Quarterback

Running back

Wide receiver

Tight end

Offensive line

Defensive line

Edge defender

Linebacker

Defensive back