Top 3 Offseason Needs: Houston Texans
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Houston Texans, who finished 4-12 after posting a 9-7 record for three consecutive seasons.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Angelo Blackson, DE (RFA)
- Alfred Blue, RB
- Chris Clark, T
- Andre Ellington, RB
- Bruce Ellington, WR
- Breno Giacomini, T
- Marcus Gilchrist, S
- Ben Heeney, LB (RFA)
- Jelani Jenkins, LB
- Josh Johnson, QB
- Johnathan Joseph, CB
- Ufomba Kamalu, LB (ERFA)
- Shane Lechler, P
- Greg Mancz, C (RFA)
- Corey Moore, S (ERFA)
- Brian Peters, LB (RFA)
- Eddie Pleasant, S
- Tom Savage, QB
- Xavier Su’a-Filo, G
- Jordan Todman, RB
- Marcus Williams, CB
- T.J. Yates, QB
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- J.J. Watt, DE: $15,000,000
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR: $14,000,000
- Jadeveon Clowney, DE: $13,846,000
- Kareem Jackson, CB: $9,000,000
- Brian Cushing, LB: $8,840,625
- Jeff Allen, G: $7,375,000
- Lamar Miller, RB: $6,750,000
- Whitney Mercilus, LB: $5,956,250
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE: $5,156,250
- Andre Hal, S: $3,750,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $56,665,767
- No first-round pick
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for CB Kevin Johnson
Three Needs:
1) Rebuild the offensive line: The Texans’ porous offensive line didn’t play a role in rookie sensation Deshaun Watson‘s torn ACL, as the first-year quarterback suffered the non-contact injury during a practice session. However, if Houston wants to protect its investment under center for the long-term, the club needs to do something about its front five, which ranked among the league’s worst and traded away its best player — left tackle Duane Brown — at midseason.
Nearly every individual and team metric was down on the Texans’ offensive line in 2017. Football Outsiders ranked the unit 20th in adjusted line yards and 30th in adjusted sack rate, while Houston finished dead last in pressure rate allowed. The club allowed 54 sacks (second-most in the NFL), while no Texans offensive lineman received a grade greater than 45 (on a 100-point scale) from Pro Football Focus. Players such as Breno Giacomini, Xavier Su’a-Filo, Greg Mancz, Jeff Allen, and Chris Clark — none of which are household names — garnered at least 45% playtime in what became a lost Houston season.
As such, the Texans are looking at a complete offseason revamp of their front five: Giacomini, Su’a-Filo, and Clark are all free agents and don’t figure to attract much interest, while Mancz is a restricted free agent and Allen is a candidate for his release. However, Houston will have to do nearly all of its offensive line rebuilding through free agency, as the 2018 draft lacks impact lineman (and the Texans don’t own a first- or second-round pick, anyway).
The free agent tackle class doesn’t offer many special options, either, but Texans head coach Bill O’Brien‘s Patriots connections could make Houston a player for Nate Solder, Cameron Fleming, or LaAdrian Waddle. Solder is clearly the prize among that group, and given that he’s far and away the best blindside protector on the open market, Houston would have to outbid several other clubs in order to land him. With nearly $60MM in cap space, the Texans have the ability to do just that, but Fleming and/or Waddle could also be viable solutions at cheaper cost.
The only other free agent tackles worth considering are the Giants’ Justin Pugh and the Steelers’ Chris Hubbard, but each come with concerns. Pugh has generally played guard and right tackle at the NFL level, so he could be stretched if asked to play on the left side full-time, while Hubbard had never started more than four games before last season. Other free agents at the tackle position include Greg Robinson, Donald Stephenson, Garry Gilliam, and Andre Smith, none of which would represent significant upgrades over the Texans’ current line.
Unrestricted free agency isn’t flush with left tackles, but the Texans could take an unorthodox approach and pursue Redskins restricted free agent Ty Nsekhe. Nsekhe isn’t a conventional pickup, as he’ll turn 33 years old during the 2018 season and has started only 11 games during the course of his career. But Nsekhe was incredibly successful as a fill-in for Trent Williams in 2016, and Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus told me last spring that Nsekhe has the “kind of power and athletic mix that makes him a fit for any scheme.” Andy Benoit of TheMMQB.com, meanwhile, called Nsekhe a “good North/South run-blocker” who is “athletic enough to contribute in an outside zone game.”
One other tackle who could potentially help Houston is already on the club’s roster: Derek Newton tore both patella tendons in October 2016 and hasn’t been on the field since, and while there’s been no recent update on his health, Newton was reportedly optimistic at this time last year that he’d be able to play again at some point. Medical professionals have called Newton’s injury a “once-every five year” outcome, so there’s no guarantee Newton will ever return, let alone play at the same level. The Texans have more information than the general public on Newton’s status, and their offseason moves at right tackle should reflect their opinion of his health.
While Houston may not be able to use free agency to pick up a starting tackle, the team should make hay in the free agent guard market, which offers more serviceable options. Andrew Norwell figures to land the largest contract among the group, and the Texans should be interested, as signing the former Panther would allow the club to correct its mistake in signing Allen two years ago. Weston Richburg could be another interesting addition, although his presence would force Houston to move either him or incumbent center Nick Martin to guard.
Other guard/centers that could require multi-year contracts include Josh Kline (Titans), Jack Mewhort (Colts), and Ryan Jensen (Ravens), but the Texans could also ink a few older players to one-year pacts in an effort to solidify their front five. Given Watson’s cheap contract and the overall weakness of the AFC South, Houston should try to compete immediately, so signing veterans for a single-season run isn’t the worst idea. Among the candidates for such a deal could be Brandon Fusco, Matt Slauson, Alex Boone, or Jahri Evans.
2) Bolster the secondary: The Texans were still in the mix for cornerback A.J. Bouye in the spring of 2017, but eventually lost him to the division-rival Jaguars after not using the franchise tender. Granted, Houston entered last offseason with only $25MM in cap space, so the club didn’t have unlimited funds to use on re-signing Bouye, but his absence was felt last year. None of Kareem Jackson, Johnathan Joseph, nor Kevin Johnson played well, and the Texans ranked 24th, 30th, and 24th in DVOA against No. 1, No. 2, and slot receivers, respectively. Overall, Houston surrendered the second-most passing touchdowns and yards per attempt in the NFL in 2017.
Joseph (33) and Jackson (29) aren’t part of the Texans’ long-term plans, and neither may be on the team’s roster next season. Joseph is a free agent, and given his recent lack of production, it probably doesn’t make sense for Houston to re-sign him. According to the 2018 Pro Football Focus Free Agent Guide, Joseph ranked 88th among 126 qualified corners with a 99.1 passer rating last year, and finished 105th in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.45). Jackson also struggled in 2017, and given that the Texans can save $6.75MM by cutting him in the coming weeks, he could be a cap casualty.Read more
Top 3 Offseason Needs: New York Giants
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New York Giants, who are looking to rebound from a disastrous 2017 season:
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Akeem Ayers, LB
- Nick Becton, T
- Nat Berhe, S
- Adam Bisnowaty, T (ERFA)
- Jay Bromley, DT
- Jonathan Casillas, LB
- Ross Cockrell, CB
- Orleans Darkwa, RB
- D.J. Fluker, G
- Curtis Grant, LB (ERFA)
- John Greco, G
- Jon Halapio, G (ERFA)
- Mark Herzlich, LB
- Brett Jones, C (RFA)
- Devon Kennard, LB
- Tavarres King, WR
- Darryl Morris, CB
- Ryan O’Malley, TE (ERFA)
- Justin Pugh, G
- Weston Richburg, C
- Keenan Robinson, LB
- Travis Rudolph, WR (ERFA)
- Kelvin Sheppard, LB
- Deontae Skinner, LB (RFA)
- Geno Smith, QB
- Robert Thomas, DT (ERFA)
- Shane Vereen, RB
- Kerry Wynn, DE
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Eli Manning, QB: $22,200,000
- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: $17,500,000
- Olivier Vernon, DE: $17,000,000
- Janoris Jenkins, CB: $13,000,000
- Damon Harrison, DT: $9,600,000
- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: $8,500,000
- Odell Beckham Jr., WR: $8,459,000
- Brandon Marshall, WR: $6,156,250
- Ereck Flowers, T: $4,579,219
- Eli Apple, CB: $4,132,436
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $22,955,068
- Second pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for T Ereck Flowers
Three Needs:
1. Identify the quarterback of the future. Not long ago, it seemed like a sure thing that Eli Manning was a goner in New York. But, things move quickly in the greater NYC area. Owner John Mara wants Manning back in the fold. Manning wants to stay too, despite his temporary demotion late in the season. New GM Dave Gettleman and head coach Pat Shurmur have also said that they intend to have Eli under center in 2018. All signs are pointing to the two-time Super Bowl champ being back in blue, but the Giants surely know that this is the beginning of the end for Manning. 
This year’s free agent quarterback market is stronger than any in recent memory, but the Giants will not be among the teams to make a play for Kirk Cousins, nor will they try and coax Drew Brees to leave New Orleans (it’s not likely that Brees will hit the open market anyway). Manning will eat up $22MM of the salary cap and there’s no realistic scenario in which the Giants can keep him on board as an extraordinarily expensive backup. Even if they could swing it somehow, Manning would object and the Giants faithful would burn the Meadowlands to the ground.
The Giants are expected to use the No. 2 overall pick on one of this year’s top quarterbacks. Unless the Browns go all-in and sign Kirk Cousins in free agency, they’ll probably see one of those QBs come off the board before they are called to the podium.
Although new Browns GM John Dorsey says that he’ll be considering a pool of four or five players at No. 1, most believe that Cleveland will select either USC star Sam Darnold or UCLA standout Josh Rosen. As most mock drafts will tell you, the common belief is that the Browns will take Darnold, who is believed to be the safer choice despite throwing 13 interceptions in 2017.
Does that mean the Giants will take Rosen? Probably, but that’s far from definite. Rosen’s outspoken personality would work better in New York than in most markets, but he too had some ill-timed interceptions and the shoulder injury that shut him down in 2016 is still a concern. How about Wyoming’s Josh Allen? Allen’s decision making and accuracy has been questioned, but he’s an impressive athlete for a 6’5″ QB and his arm strength is top notch. You may also hear some Baker Mayfield talk between now and April, but we’d be surprised if the Giants reached for him this early.
2. Remake the offensive line. The Giants offense struggled in large part because of the rash of injuries to its wide receiver core and, perhaps, some iffy performances from Manning, but the offensive line was downright porous. In fact, it was a desire to fix the Giants’ Swiss cheese O-Line that broke the ice between Shurmur and Gettleman. 
“As soon as he said, ‘Everything starts with the offensive line,’“said Shurmur when asked when the conversation between him and the GM really clicked (via NJ.com). “There’s a great example of that: What we went through in Minnesota. We didn’t change the oil; we changed the transmission. We got two free agent offensive linemen, we drafted a center that played like a veteran, and we transformed the offensive line that helped us do the things (to) win 14 games.”
That offensive line transformation in Minnesota helped turn Case Keenum from a career journeyman to a top 10 quarterback in an instant. It started in free agency when the Vikings signed Riley Reiff (five-year, $58.75MM deal with $26.3MM guaranteed) and Mike Remmers (five-year, $30MM deal with $10.5MM guaranteed). Then, in the draft, they traded up in the third round to land eventual starting center Pat Elflein. The revamp didn’t come easy or cheap, but it made a world of difference for the Vikings.
Last year, the Giants’ were 21st in the NFL in sacks allowed (34) and 26th in rushing yards per game (86.6). They must improve in both areas, and that can only be achieved with a serious shakeup.
Gettleman already got the party started in December when he cut starting right tackle Bobby Hart. You can expect much more turnover, particularly with a pair of injury-prone linemen – center Weston Richburg and swing tackle Justin Pugh – headed towards free agency. Former first-round pick Ereck Flowers figures to remain, but the Giants probably won’t bank on him being their starting left tackle after another iffy season.
This year’s free agent tackle class is headlined by a trio of tackles from the AFC East: Ju’Wuan James (Dolphins), Nate Solder (Patriots), and Cameron Fleming (Patriots). After that, there’s a noticeable dip in quality. Steelers lineman Chris Hubbard may be the only other starting quality available tackle.
If the Giants want to hit a home run on the interior line, they could make a run at Panthers free agent Andrew Norwell. The guard, 27 in October, is coming off of a career year in which he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 3 ranked guard, putting him ahead of big names such as Josh Sitton, Joel Bitonio, Rodger Saffold, Ron Leary, Kevin Zeitler, and Richie Incognito. Only Zack Martin and David DeCastro placed ahead of Norwell, and that may give you an idea of the kind of money the Giants would have to shell out for him on the open market. Gettleman, who originally signed Norwell as an undrafted free agent when he was the Panthers’ GM, could break the bank to make it happen. When it comes to the top linemen, they’ll be competing with other clubs in win-now mode looking for offensive line help, including the Cardinals and Bengals.
There’s virtually no chance of the Giants using their No. 2 overall pick on a lineman (see: offseason need #1), but gems could be found in the later rounds. Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson and Texas tackle Connor Williams will long gone by the time the Giants’ next turn comes up at No. 34 overall, but tackles Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame), Orlando Brown (Oklahoma), Chukwuma Okorafor (Western Michigan), and Kolton Miller (UCLA) could be in play.
3. Add a running back. Orleans Darkwa was the Giants’ lead rusher this year and you may be surprised to learn that he had career highs in yards per carry (4.4), catches (19), and receiving yards (116). But, the soon-to-be 26-year-old is scheduled for free agency and there’s no guarantee that the new regime will look to keep him. Ditto for third down back Shane Vereen. Darkwa seems more likely to stay on board than Vereen, but either way there’s little chance of both returning. That opens up the door for a new tailback and there are a few interesting ones who could be available.
Patriots tailback Dion Lewis stayed healthy in 2017 and averaged 5.0 yards per carry with 32 catches for 214 yards.
Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde both played well last year despite being a part of atrocious offenses. Father time is undefeated, but the Giants could sign Frank Core to a front-loaded deal to see if he can continue his remarkable run past his 35th birthday. Jerick McKinnon could add some serious athleticism and pass-catching acumen to the backfield, but the Giants will have to find someone else to tote the rock ~13 times per game.
If the Giants go QB at No. 2 like we expect, Penn State star Saquon Barkley won’t be an option for them. Derrius Guice (LSU), Ronald Jones II (USC), and Damien Harris (Alabama) all seem slated for the first round, but Kerryon Johnson (Auburn) could slip to them at No. 34, depending on how the combines shake out. A few weeks ago, we would have mentioned Georgia running back Sony Michel as a diamond in the rough, but he has gone from an under-the-radar find to a first round prospect, as Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports recently detailed.
PFR Originals: 1/21/18 -1/28/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- As the offseason progresses, PFR will assess each team by examining the top three needs on each respective roster. We covered three organizations last week:
- The NFL’s Rooney Rule — which requires teams to interview at least one minority candidate when filling a general manager or head coach vacancy — has been the subject of much discussion in recent weeks, as the Raiders may or may not have met the rule’s requirements before hiring Jon Gruden. While the NFL has determined Oakland did follow the Rooney Rule stipulations, Zach Links examined the effects of the regulation on the league’s hiring processes, noting that further changes involving minority candidates could be on the table.
- The Vikings are in a precarious position: not only are they naming a new offensive coordinator to replace Pat Shurmur, but their top three quarterbacks — including breakout starter Case Keenum — are all free agents. With that in mind, Rory Parks asked PFR readers where Keenum will be playing in 2018, and while Minnesota is currently leading the vote, other teams, such as the Cardinals and Jets, have also garnered consideration.
Top 3 Offseason Needs: Carolina Panthers
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Carolina Panthers, who rebounded from a down 2016 to finish 11-5, good for second in the NFC South.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Derek Anderson, QB
- Brenton Bersin, WR
- Damiere Byrd, WR (ERFA)
- Jairus Byrd, S
- Kaelin Clay, WR (RFA)
- Ed Dickson, TE
- Dan France, T (ERFA)
- Andrew Gachkar, LB
- Graham Gano, K
- Ladarius Gunter, CB (RFA)
- Drew Iddings, DT (ERFA)
- Charles Johnson, WR
- Tyler Larsen, C (ERFA)
- Star Lotulelei, DT
- Chris Manhertz, TE (ERFA)
- Andrew Norwell, G
- Michael Palardy, P (ERFA)
- Julius Peppers, DE
- Amini Silatolu, G
- Scott Simonson, TE (RFA)
- Greg Van Roten, G (RFA)
- Teddy Williams, CB
- David Yankey, G (RFA)
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Cam Newton, QB: $21,500,000
- Kawann Short, DT: $17,000,000
- Luke Kuechly, LB: $13,100,059
- Ryan Kalil, C: $10,279,000
- Greg Olsen, TE: $9,750,000
- Mario Addison, DE: $8,916,666
- Trai Turner, G: $7,703,000
- Matt Kalil, T: $6,900,000
- Jonathan Stewart, RB: $5,250,000
- Kurt Coleman, S: $5,250,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $24,465,591
- 24th pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for LB Shaq Thompson
Three Needs:
1) Add a new weapon for Cam Newton: When the Panthers lost to the Saints in the Wild Card round earlier this month, their wide receiver depth chart was as follows: Devin Funchess, Brenton Bersin, Kaelin Clay, Russell Shepard, Mose Frazier. Sure, Carolina will see the return of Damiere Byrd and Curtis Samuel — each of whom ended the year on injured reserve — in 2018, but it’s readily apparent that the Panthers lack a true No. 1 threat at wideout.
Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson are probably the top two pending free agent receivers, but Landry will be pricey and — as a slot receiver — isn’t the type of addition the Panthers currently need. Robinson will be expensive, too, even though he’s coming off a torn ACL. Carolina doesn’t have a ton of money to throw around this offseason, thanks in part to free agent deals handed out by former general manager Dave Gettleman and extensions worked out by “interim” GM Marty Hurney. Therefore, the Panthers probably need to go bargain-hunting as they search for a specific pass-catcher to complement Funchess.
Signing a speed receiver who can handle deep passes should be a clear focal point for Carolina over the coming months, especially after the club allowed long-ball threat Ted Ginn Jr. to land with the division-rival Saints a year ago. Veteran Mike Wallace stands out as a player in that mold, as he caught all nine of his deep targets (20+ yards) in 2017 while ranking 12th in deep receiving yardage, according to the 2018 Pro Football Focus Free Agency Guide. Jourdan Rodrigue of the Charlotte Observer recently speculated that Wallace could fit with the Panthers, and he shouldn’t be all that expensive given that he’s now 31 years old. Other candidates to fill a speed niche for Carolina could include Paul Richardson, Taylor Gabriel, Deonte Thompson, or — if the Panthers want to spend — Sammy Watkins, who finished 14th in Football Outsiders‘ DYAR last season.
If Carolina isn’t able to land a deep threat, the club should double down and ink another big-bodied pass-catcher who can fight for contested catches and offer a large target radius for the often erratic Newton. If the Panthers go down this route, they could save a good bit of money because most of these types of wideouts are coming off disappointing seasons. Possible options may include Donte Moncrief, Michael Floyd, Jaron Brown, Kamar Aiken, plus restricted free agents Tyrell Williams and Brandon Coleman, but the best fit might be former quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
There’s no question Pryor was a free agent bust with the Redskins in 2017, as he managed only 20 receptions for 240 yards and one touchdowns. But he’s an excellent athlete at 6″4, 235 pounds, and was extremely productive with the Browns in 2016, topping 1,000 yards receiving in his first season as a wideout. Pryor ranked ninth in contested catch rate during his lone full campaign with Cleveland (via PlayerProfiler.com), while Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted Pryor’s repeated success against man, zone, and press coverages. For a full perspective on Pryor’s capabilities, check out this October 2016 piece from Cian Fahey of Football Outsiders.
A number of other veteran receivers that could be on interest to the Panthers could be candidates for release this offseason, meaning Carolina may have several more pass-catching candidates available when free agency on March 14. Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and Michael Crabtree are all on their respective teams’ roster bubbles, and Hurney & Co. should examine each player if and when he is cut. Among those wideouts, Thomas and Bryant would be the best fits for the Panthers under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner.
2) Find a new left guard: Andrew Norwell was quite a find by former general manager Dave Gettleman. Signed as an undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati in 2014, the 26-year-old Norwell has been a full-time starter in each of his four seasons with the Panthers. The 2017 campaign was Norwell’s pièce de résistance, as he earned first-team All-Pro honors while grading as the No. 3 guard in the league, per Pro Football Focus. He’s unquestionably the best lineman on the Panthers’ roster, and one of the best blockers in the NFL.Read more
Top 3 Offseason Needs: Los Angeles Rams
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Los Angeles Rams, a surprise contender that captured the NFC West crown before suffering a defeat in the first round of the postseason.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Connor Barwin, LB
- Malcolm Brown, RB (ERFA)
- Derek Carrier, TE
- Cody Davis, S
- Lance Dunbar, RB
- Dominique Easley, DE
- Troy Hill, CB (ERFA)
- Trumaine Johnson, CB
- Lamarcus Joyner, S
- Zach Laskey, FB (ERFA)
- Matt Longacre, LB (RFA)
- Cornelius Lucas, T
- Cameron Lynch, LB (RFA)
- Jake McQuaide, LS
- Aaron Neary, G (ERFA)
- Nickell Robey-Coleman, CB
- Garrett Sickels, LB (ERFA)
- John Sullivan, C
- Tyrunn Walker, DT
- Sammy Watkins, WR
- Darrell Williams, T (RFA)
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Robert Quinn, DE: $12,399,770
- Andrew Whitworth, T: $12,166,666
- Alec Ogletree, LB: $11,600,000
- Michael Brockers, DT: $10,750,000
- Mark Barron, LB: $10,000,000
- Robert Woods, WR: $8,000,000
- Tavon Austin, WR: $8,000,000
- Jared Goff, QB: $7,619,365
- Rodger Saffold, G: $7,500,000
- Aaron Donald, DT: $6,892,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $51,012,500
- 23rd pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for RB Todd Gurley
Three Needs:
1) Find a dynamic edge defender: We don’t need to tell you that defensive tackle Aaron Donald is an absolute monster. He earned a near-perfect 99.7 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, and was the only interior lineman who ranked among the NFL’s top 20 in quarterback pressures (his 52 were third-most in the league, behind only Demarcus Lawrence and Khalil Mack).
Thanks to Donald’s dominance and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips‘ scheming, Los Angeles posted a decent performance against opposing signal-callers: while the club ranked just 24th in sacks, it finished fifth in adjusted sack rate and 16th in pressure rate. Imagine what the Rams could do after improving on edge options Robert Quinn and Connor Barwin, each of whom graded as bottom-20 pass-rushers in 2017, according to PFF. Quinn’s production has been dwindling for at least three consecutive seasons, while Barwin is now 31 years old and will hit free agency in March.
The only problem with trying to improve an edge defense through free agency is that most teams don’t let quality pass-rushers get away, meaning many players on the open market will come with some kind of flaw (age, injury, etc.). So the Rams may first need to look internally, and potentially give more playing time to backup Matt Longacre, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2015. Longacre, 26, played more snaps in 2017 than he had in the previous two seasons combined, and came through with 5.5 sacks and 15.5 pressures. Cameron DaSilva of RamsWire recently looked at why Longacre was so successful last year, noting that stunts and twists were a large part of Longacre’s usage.
If Los Angeles does look at the free agent edge rushing market, they won’t find much. Demarcus Lawrence is overwhelmingly likely to stay with the Cowboys either through a long-term contract or the franchise tag, leaving the Lions’ Ezekiel Ansah as the top defender available. Ansah has spent his entire career in a 4-3 scheme, leaving questions as to whether he could play in the Rams’ 3-4 front. If LA doesn’t think Ansah is a viable option, the club will instead have to look at incremental improvements.
The first call general manager Les Snead makes should go to veteran defender Julius Peppers, who is a free agent again after spending the 2017 season in Carolina. Peppers is 38 years old, but he hasn’t posted fewer than seven sacks in a decade. And the Rams shouldn’t necessarily worry about Peppers’ advanced age given that they’re in clear win-now mode. Not only can Peppers still be productive, but he played in a 3-4 look from 2014-16 — while Phillips and ex-Packers DC Dom Capers run different versions of the 3-4, Peppers has proven he can be effective in a stand-up role.
The other pass-rusher that should interest the Rams is Aaron Lynch, who will become a free agent in March after four seasons with the 49ers. Los Angeles should have a good idea of Lynch’s ability given that it plays San Francisco twice per year, but Lynch admittedly hasn’t been on the field much since 2016 (he’s averaged only 16% playtime over the past two seasons). The 24-year-old Lynch was reportedly overweight and in danger of getting cut last May, and while those are concerns, those issues could also mean Lynch will be cheap once he hits the open market. As recently as 2015, Lynch ranked fifth in the NFL with 34 pressures — that’s the type of upside that should interest the Rams, potentially on a multi-year deal.
A few other veteran players could be of note to the Rams this offseason, including a number that may be released in the coming months. Chief among them are two notable NFC North defenders, the Packers’ Clay Matthews and the Bears’ Pernell McPhee. Both are age-29+ and have dealt with injuries in recent season, but both also still have the potential to be play-making difference-makers. If they’re cut, the Rams should have interest. Los Angeles could also consider a trade, with the target being the Colts’ Jabaal Sheard. Sheard is coming off the best season of his career, but if Indianapolis is going to undergo something of a rebuild, it doesn’t need a 29-year-old edge defender, meaning he could probably be had.
If the Rams don’t land an impact edge rusher in free agency, they may be up a creek without a paddle, as the 2018 draft class of outside linebackers/defensive ends isn’t rife with top-end talent. NC State’s Bradley Chubb isn’t falling until the end of the first round, and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com only lists three other edge defenders — Arden Key (LSU), Harold Landry (Boston College), and Sam Hubbard (Ohio State) among his top-50 prospects. Adding insult to injury, Los Angeles doesn’t own a second-round pick in 2018 (ramifications of the Sammy Watkins trade), so it won’t be able to take advantage if one of those defenders listed takes a draft-day tumble.
2) Bolster the interior offensive line: The Rams’ 2017 offensive turnaround was one of the more discussed topics in the NFL last season, and the club’s improvement along the offensive line was a major part of that effort. After the 2016 campaign, Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus graded Los Angeles’ front five as the No. 27 offensive line in the league, a ranking that almost seemed too positive given that the Rams had finished 29th in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate.
Top 3 Offseason Needs: Chicago Bears
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Chicago Bears, who posted a 5-11 record in 2017 and have since hired a new staff that includes former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy as head coach.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Sam Acho, LB
- Prince Amukamara, CB
- Josh Bellamy, WR (RFA)
- Daniel Brown, TE (ERFA)
- Bryce Callahan, CB (RFA)
- Tom Compton, OL
- Benny Cunningham, RB
- Andrew DePaola, LS
- Kyle Fuller, CB
- Lamarr Houston, LB
- Dontrelle Inman, WR
- John Jenkins, DT
- Christian Jones, LB
- Sherrick McManis, CB
- Cameron Meredith, WR (RFA)
- Zach Miller, TE
- Mike Nugent, K
- Pat O’Donnell, P
- Cairo Santos, K
- Mark Sanchez, QB
- Patrick Scales, LS (ERFA)
- Bradley Sowell, T
- John Timu, LB (RFA)
- Mitch Unrein, DE
- Kendall Wright, WR
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Mike Glennon, QB: $16,000,000
- Akiem Hicks, DE: $9,600,000
- Kyle Long, G: $8,848,158
- Josh Sitton, G: $8,666,668
- Pernell McPhee, LB: $8,075,000
- Danny Trevathan, LB: $7,150,000
- Mitch Trubisky, QB: $6,598,281
- Dion Sims, TE: $6,333,333
- Bobby Massie, T: $6,100,000
- Charles Leno, T: $5,900,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $42,025,379
- Eighth pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for WR Kevin White
Three Needs:
1) Add multiple receiving threats: Only two players topped 25 receptions for the Bears a season ago. One was Kendall Wright, who led Chicago in both catches (59) and yards (614) but is now an unrestricted free agent. The other was a rookie running back Tarik Cohen.
The Bears fielded — by far — the worst pass-catching unit the league, making No. 2 overall pick Mitch Trubisky‘s rookie campaign all the more difficult. Luckily, Chicago has the cap space and draft capital to revive its receiving corps under new offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich. Finding roster space won’t be a problem, either, as both Wright and Dontrelle Inman are unrestricted free agents, Josh Bellamy is a restricted free agent, Kevin White and Cameron Meredith are coming off injury (Meredith is an RFA, too), while Markus Wheaton — who managed three receptions while earning $6MM in 2017 — will likely be released.
Even if we assume Bellamy, White, and Meredith will all return and be healthy in 2018, the Bears still need to bring in two or three new wide receivers over the next few months. Chicago currently ranks 12th in available cap space, but the club will almost certainly gain $11.5MM in room (and thus move to eighth in the cap space rankings) by trading or releasing quarterback Mike Glennon. As such, free agency should be the first avenue for the Bears as they seek to improve on their pass-catchers.
Chicago should compete at the top of the market, and that means the team’s initial calls should go to Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins, and a rehabbing Allen Robinson. Landry, notably, could potentially be targeting a Davante Adams-esque contract ($14MM annual salary, $30MM guarantees), which is a hefty total for a slot receiver. New head coach Matt Nagy didn’t use a typical slot receiver in Kansas City, so it’s unclear if Landry would be worth the deal he’s seeking. Robinson, meanwhile, should still generate a good deal of interest as he recovers from a torn ACL, but he will come at a much cheaper rate than Landry (and possibly on a one-year pact).
It’s not the end of the world if the Bears fail to land one of those aforementioned wideouts, but if they do, they need to hit the second tier of free agent receivers, a list that includes Paul Richardson, Terrelle Pryor, Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Mike Wallace, Danny Amendola, Donte Moncrief, and Brice Butler. Given his youth (age-25), Richardson is probably the only WR listed here that could eventually evolve into a No. 1 option, but that also means he’ll require a larger deal. Butler could be a particularly interesting, and Chicago could give him a clear chance to become a starter.
Even after (hopefully) adding an upper-tier pass-catcher, the Bears still need to take a few dart throws at low-cost options. Albert Wilson has spent his entire career working under Nagy in Kansas City, and though he’s never topped 45 receptions, he could theoretically offer scheme familiarity in Chicago. Jeremy Maclin could potentially be released by the Ravens later this year, and though he’ll be 30 years old when the season gets underway, he could be another target for the Bears given his time with Nagy in both Philadelphia and Kansas City. And Josh Huff enjoyed success under Helfrich at Oregon, so if he’s cut by the Saints in the near future, he could make for a worthwhile flyer.
After inking a few free agent wideouts, Chicago can still use the draft to supplement their offensive weaponry. The most obvious choice — and the only wide receiver worth selecting with a top-10 pick — will be Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, who totaled 2,781 yards and 19 touchdowns over three seasons with the Crimson Tide. Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) sent Ridley to the Bears in his first mock draft of the year, while Luke Easterling of USA Today calls Ridley a “sharp route-runner” and a “constant threat to beat defenses over the top.”
Of course, the Bears have enough needs that their first-round pick won’t necessarily be used on a wide receiver. If that’s the case, Chicago could target player such as SMU’s Courtland Sutton (an excellent size weapon at 6’4″), Texas A&M’s Christian Kirk (whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls the best slot receiver in the draft), or Indiana’s Simmie Cobbs. The Bears don’t currently own a third-round pick thanks to the Trubisky trade, so they’ll likely need to secure a wideout in the first two rounds.
2) Fill holes at cornerback: On the whole, the Bears’ passing defense was acceptable under coordinator Vic Fangio, as the unit ranked 14th in DVOA. The only problem? Chicago’s top two cornerbacks — Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara, each of whom played at least 80% of the Bears’ defensive snaps — are scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in March, meaning the club could potentially have to find two new starters.
Whether or not the Bears can, or should, re-sign either Fuller or Amukamara depends entirely on asking price. Amukamara is still only 28 years old, but the NFL free agent market has deemed him worthy of only a one-year contract in each of the past two offseasons. Fuller, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick coming off the best season of his career, but he missed the entirety of the 2016 season with injury and has been up-and-down in his other NFL campaigns.Read more
PFR Glossary: Rooney Rule
Pro Football Rumors is in the process of creating a glossary of terms related to free agency, the salary cap, and other areas of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. If you’re confused by our references to concepts like franchise players or reserve/futures contracts, or just want further clarification on the specifics, the glossary should help clear things up.
We’ll continue to add entries to this glossary, which can be found anytime on the right sidebar under “PFR Features.”
This offseason, the Raiders found themselves in a bit of a controversy over their head coaching search. On Christmas Eve, owner Mark Davis reached a verbal agreement with Jon Gruden to become the team’s next head coach. It wasn’t until after New Year’s Day that two minority candidates – Oakland tight ends coach Bobby Johnson and USC offensive coordinator Tee Martin – were interviewed for the position. On January 6, the Raiders rolled out the black-and-silver carpet to announce Gruden’s return in an over-the-top press conference. It was clear that neither Martin nor Johnson had a real chance at getting the job.
Established in 2003, the Rooney Rule stipulates that teams must interview at least one minority candidate for head coaching positions. Named after former Steelers owner Dan Rooney, the rule is in place to make sure that candidates of color have a fair shake at climbing the ranks. Some felt that the Raiders broke the spirit of the rule by not giving real consideration to a minority candidate, but the NFL recently declared that the Raiders did in fact comply with the protocol. The Fritz Pollard Alliance, which works with the NFL to monitor minority hiring practices, has vowed to push for changes to the rule that will prevent a similar situation from playing out.
When the Rooney Rule was introduced, there were historically very few non-white head coaches in the NFL. Fritz Pollard became the first black head coach in NFL history in the 1920s and the league did not see another minority head coach until 1979 when the Raiders hired Tom Flores.
Since the advent of the Rooney Rule 15 years ago, dozens of qualified minority candidates have been given opportunities to showcase themselves for head coaching positions. However, it’s hard to say concretely whether this has directly led to a greater number of minority hires as the number has vacillated over time. For example, there were four head coaches of color in 2003, eight in 2011, four in 2013, and eight again in 2017. The number stands at eight today, matching the all-time high, with Mike Tomlin, Todd Bowles, Anthony Lynn, Vance Joseph, Hue Jackson, Marvin Lewis, Ron Rivera, and Steve Wilks all holding HC positions.
In recent years, the rule has been extended to general manager vacancies. In December 2016, the NFL agreed to informally apply the rule to offensive and defensive coordinator positions, though there are no penalties for noncompliance. If a team is found to have broken the Rooney Rule in a head coaching search, the club may be faced with a substantial fine and/or a forfeiture of draft picks.
In the wake of the Raiders controversy, we could see further reform to the Rooney Rule between now and the 2018/19 offseason.
PFR Originals: 1/14/18 – 1/21/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- As the offseason progresses, PFR will assess each team by examining the top three needs on each respective roster. We covered two organizations last week:
- Super Bowl LII takes place in two weeks, so Greg Goldstein asked PFR readers which of the four potential matchups is likeliest to occur. A Patriots vs. Vikings contest nearly secured a majority of the vote (47.44%), while Jaguars vs. Eagles finished last, with only 11% of respondents choosing that matchup.
- Free agency will open in fewer than two months, meaning scores of new contracts will soon be signed. With that in mind, Zach Links went over the concept of contract incentives in the latest PFR Glossary entry.
- I posted a list of Important 2018 Offseason Dates that will occur over the next six months or so. Key events include the start of the 2018 league year, the 2018 draft, and the franchise/transition tag deadline.
PFR Glossary: Contract Incentives
With the offseason just around the corner, we wanted to give a refresher on contract incentives and their various forms. Signing bonuses can sweeten the pot for free agents and are largely self-explanatory, but incentives are a bit trickier.
At the most basic level, contract incentives are designed to reward a player for his performance — in some cases, these financial rewards are linked to individual or team production, while other incentives can be earned simply by the player earning a spot on his team’s active roster from week to week. These incentives are divided into two categories: Likely to be earned (LTBE) and not likely to be earned (NLTBE).
Under the NFL’s definition, a likely to be earned incentive is generally one that was achieved the year before. So if a running back racked up 1,300 yards on the ground in 2017 and has an incentive in his contract that would reward him for surpassing 1,200 yards in 2018, that incentive is viewed as likely to be earned and counts against his cap hit from the start of the year. On the other hand, a back who has never surpassed 700 rushing yards in a season could have an incentive on his deal for 2014 that would reward him for rushing for 800 yards — such a bonus would be considered not likely to be earned, and wouldn’t count against the player’s cap number.
Because the player’s or team’s performance in a given season dictates whether or not the incentive is actually earned, the player’s cap number is sometimes altered after the fact. For instance, there’d be no change if a player met the criteria for a $50K LTBE incentive, but if he failed to earn that incentive, his team would be credited with $50K in cap room for the following season. Similarly, if a $50K NLTBE incentive isn’t reached, nothing changes, but if a player does earn that incentive, his club’s cap space for the following season is reduced by $50K.
A simple incentive linked to yardage or touchdown totals in a season isn’t too hard to track, but there are more convoluted forms of bonuses. Let’s say a player coming off an injury that limited him to six games played signs a contract that would pay him $500K in per-game roster bonuses. That player would be considered likely to appear in six games, but unlikely to appear in more beyond that. So, of his $500K in roster bonuses, $187,500 would initially count against the cap, as the LTBE portion.
Here are a few more notes on contract incentives and how they work:
- Any incentive that is considered to be in the player’s sole control, such as weight bonuses, or his presence at workouts, is considered likely to be earned.
- Any incentive in the first year of a rookie contract is considered likely to be earned.
- Individual performance incentives can be linked to most basic statistical categories, such as yardage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. However, more obscure stat categories typically aren’t allowed for individual incentives. For instance, a receiver couldn’t have an incentive tied to receptions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, a defender could have an incentive linked to sacks or interceptions, but not to tackles for a loss.
- In some cases, individual performances can also dictate the value of traded draft picks. For example, the Jaguars making the playoffs this year altered their trade for Marcell Dareus. The Bills received a conditional 2018 sixth-round pick for Dareus in the parties’ October trade, but that pick became a fifth-rounder when the Jags reached the postseason.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier entry by editor emeritus Luke Adams. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Russell Street Report, Over The Cap, and Salary Cap 101 was used in the creation of this post.
Top 3 Offseason Needs: New York Jets
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New York Jets, who were more competitive than expected in 2017.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- David Bass, LB
- Freddie Bishop, LB (ERFA)
- Terrence Brooks, S
- Bruce Carter, LB
- Chandler Catanzaro, K
- Morris Claiborne, CB
- Xavier Cooper, DE (RFA)
- Demario Davis, LB
- Dakota Dozier, G
- Kony Ealy, DE
- Quincy Enunwa, WR (RFA)
- Chris Gragg, TE
- Jonotthan Harrison, C
- Wesley Johnson, C
- Chris King, WR (ERFA)
- Josh McCown, QB
- Doug Middleton, S (ERFA)
- Rontez Miles, S (RFA)
- Mike Pennel, DT
- Brent Qvale, T (RFA)
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
- Julian Stanford, LB
- Neal Sterling, TE (RFA)
- Ed Stinson, DE
- Lawrence Thomas, DE (ERFA)
- Eric Tomlinson, TE (ERFA)
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: $20,000,000
- Kelvin Beachum, T: $9,500,000
- Buster Skrine, CB: $8,500,000
- Brian Winters, G: $7,000,000
- James Carpenter, G: $6,805,000
- Ben Ijalana, T: $6,000,000
- Leonard Williams, DT: $5,928,004
- Jamal Adams, S: $5,058,820
- Jermaine Kearse, WR: $5,000,000
- Bilal Powell, RB: $4,883,334
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $74,579,406
- Sixth pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DT Leonard Williams
Three Needs:
Identify their next starting quarterback: Josh McCown did a solid job last year, but his contract expires in March and his 39th birthday is coming in July. Meanwhile, backups Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg stand as the Jets’ only QBs under contract. Petty, a Baylor product who was selected in Mike Maccagnan‘s first draft as GM, completed less than 50% of his passes upon taking over for McCown at the end of the season. Hackenberg, a second round pick in 2016, has yet to play a down of real NFL football.
It is possible that the Jets will look to re-sign McCown as their Week 1 starter after he turned in a handful of brilliant performances last year. In each of the Jets’ five wins, McCown completed more than 70% of his passes. He also helped Gang Green get out to a 14-0 lead over the Patriots in October before Tom Brady & Co. came roaring back to win by a final of 24-17. Still, that’s only a viable scenario if the Jets draft a promising but raw QB in April. Otherwise, the Jets will only consider keeping McCown as a high-priced backup, provided that he would be willing to serve in that capacity and the Jets can justify spending ~$7MM on a reserve.
The good news for the Jets is that this year’s potential free agent QB crop has a handful of quality options. With tons of cap room (though, not as much as some other teams have), you can expect the Jets to make a run at Kirk Cousins if he becomes available. The Redskins reserve the right to hit him with a third consecutive franchise tag or this could be the offseason that they finally give him the lucrative long-term contract that he’s looking for. But, if the Redskins allow him to test the open market or even the restricted market, the Jets won’t hesitate to get in on the bidding. This past season was not Cousins’ finest, but he has shown that he can be a backend top-10 signal caller when surrounded with the right personnel. If he reaches free agency, he’ll be the best QB up for grabs in years. 
The Chiefs are expected to move on from Alex Smith this year and if they can’t find a viable trade for him, they might release him outright. Adding Smith wouldn’t be as sexy of a move as signing Cousins, but Smith did lead the Chiefs to the postseason when many expected him to crash and make way for Patrick Mahomes. You also might be surprised to learn that Smith graded out as Pro Football Focus’ sixth-best quarterback of the season, tying him with Russell Wilson and putting him ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford.
Case Keenum, PFF’s No. 8 ranked QB, shocked the world with his performance this year and he just might help the Vikings reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1976. It’s hard to imagine Minnesota letting him get away at this point, but if he’s out there, the Jets will at least put feelers out for him. Of course, the clear downside with Keenum is that he accomplished very little before this season. Has Keenum, almost 30, finally come into his own? Or was his success the product of Pat Shurmur‘s system? On the plus side, Keenum looks the part of a postseason winner in this limited sample, something that could not necessarily be said for Smith. Smith is 2-5 in his playoff career with his last postseason W coming in 2015.
Beyond those three, there are some intriguing, yet risky, QBs who could be available. Teddy Bridgewater looked the part of a rising star in his first two NFL seasons, but he has not seen real playing time since the end of the 2015 campaign. Tyrod Taylor, at times, has looked the part of a legitimate NFL starter, but he would be more of a bridge option than anything for the Jets. Ditto for Bridgewater’s teammate, Sam Bradford, who is also scheduled to reach free agency in March.
Although he’s largely untested, QB-needy teams like the Jets will be keeping an eye A.J. McCarron‘s grievance case. If he wins, the Bengals QB will go from an restricted free agent to a UFA, allowing him to finally cash in and get his opportunity as a starter. It’s unclear how the Jets’ decision makers feel about McCarron, but the Browns’ old regime was willing to part with a second-round pick and a third-round pick to land him before the trade deadline.
Technically speaking, Drew Brees is also slated to be a part of this group, but he is widely expected to remain with New Orleans. Other big names like Eli Manning might become available, but the Jets have gotten an up close look at the two-time Super Bowl champ and are certainly aware of his sharp decline. There’s no scenario in which the Jets would sign Manning to be their starter for multiple seasons, nor is there a scenario in which Manning agrees to groom a top draft pick only to step out of the way during the season.
Armed with the No. 6 pick, the Jets will have a crack at this year’s best quarterbacks, though they would have to get ahead of the Giants at No. 2 in order to have their pick of the litter. Despite their hiccups in 2017, USC’s Sam Darnold and UCLA’s Josh Rosen remain the top arms in this year’s class with Darnold representing the perceived safer choice and Rosen possibly having the higher ceiling. If the Jets stay at No. 6 and miss out on both, they could entertain the likes of Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson.
