8 Teams That Could Sign Arian Foster
The concern with Arian Foster has always been health. Foster, who will turn 30 in August, racked up 6,472 rushing yards during his seven years as a Texan, and earned three consecutive Pro Bowl nods from 2010 to 2012, averaging about 1,900 all purpose yards and 16 touchdowns in those seasons. But he’s now coming off a major injury, having ruptured his Achilles in late October of last year.
As he’s presumably still recovering from that malady, Foster apparently won’t work out for teams until late July, so it could be awhile before he finds a new club. Still, as we noted when ranking him as the third-best offensive free agent remaining on the open market, Foster possesses the highest upside of any player still on the board, meaning that he should be able to generate interest around the league.
Let’s take a look at the clubs that could make sense as fits for Foster in the coming months…
- Denver Broncos — Foster spent the first five years of his career under Gary Kubiak in Houston, so it would make sense that the current Broncos head coach would have interest in his former bellcow back. There hasn’t yet been any reported link between Denver and Foster, and perhaps the club feels that their backfield is too crowded given that they re-signed both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman — handing the former a four-year, $18MM deal — and used a fourth-round pick on Devontae Booker. But if they’d have him, Foster might welcome the opportunity to not only play in a zone-based scheme that he knows well, but to join the defending Super Bowl champions.
- Detroit Lions — After finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing yards last season, the Lions haven’t done much to address their backfield, having only signed Stevan Ridley in free agency while using a seventh-round pick on Dwayne Washington. Detroit did invest in its offensive line, spending a first-round pick on Taylor Decker (who looks to be the club’s preferred option at left tackle) while picking up Graham Glasgow and Joe Dahl, who figure to be key reserves during their rookie seasons, in rounds three and five, respectively. But adding another back to their rotation, and limiting their dependence on Ameer Abdullah (who underwent shoulder surgery over the offseason), Theo Riddick, and Zach Zenner, might be the best route for the Lions.
- Indianapolis Colts — Like the Lions, the Colts chose to address their rushing game concerns not by adding to the crop of backs, but by concentrating on their offensive line, using four draft picks (including their first-rounder) on front five help. Indy’s running back depth chart is still perilously thin behind 33-year-old Frank Gore, with Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman representing the best fill-in options if Gore goes down. New offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski will reportedly add more zone-blocking concepts to the Colts’ game-plan, so Foster, who’s spent his career in that scheme, might feel at home.
- Miami Dolphins — Miami was the first known club to show interest in Foster, having him in for a visit at the end of March. While that meeting didn’t result in a deal getting finalized, the Dolphins are reportedly still monitoring Foster’s free agency, likely waiting for him to show signs of full health. Head coach Adam Gase has said that second-year running back Jay Ajayi has the inside track at leading Miami’s backfield in touches, and the team spent a third-round pick on fellow back Kenyan Drake, but after striking out on C.J. Anderson, Chris Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott over the past several months, the Dolphins are clearly in the market for another runner as they seek to replace Lamar Miller.
- New England Patriots — The Patriots have spent the past few months adding solid veteran role players like Chris Long, Terrance Knighton, Shea McClellin, Nate Washington, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bill Belichick & Co. wrap the offseason by signing Foster. New England reportedly had “preliminary interest” in Foster last month, and he’d make for a nice fit in a backfield that includes LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, James White, Donald Brown, and Brandon Bolden. That stable of backs would mean that Foster wouldn’t be required to carry the full load, and limited touches could be a boon to his health.
- Oakland Raiders — Latavius Murray was one of only seven running backs to rush for more than 1,000 yards in 2015, and he did so behind an offensive line that ranked just 19th in adjusted line yards. But the Raiders seemed set on adding another back this offseason, expressing interest in both Doug Martin and DeMarco Murray before drafting DeAndre Washington in the fifth round. Oakland is clearly an ascending team, with a young offensive core that already includes Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Clive Walford, and Murray. A playmaker of Foster’s talent could be the final piece that allows them to knock off the Broncos in the AFC West.
- Philadelphia Eagles — Having already shipped out DeMarco Murray, the Eagles have dealt with trade rumors regarding fellow running back Darren Sproles — while both team and player have downplayed any such speculation, Sproles could be in danger of not making Philadelphia’s final roster even if he isn’t dealt away, as Over the Cap’s performance-neutral Expected Contract Value metric gives Sproles a 92% chance of being released. With Ryan Mathews and fifth-round rookie Wendell Smallwood the only guarantees to earn roster spots, a veteran like Foster could add a spark and depth to a backfield that could use both.
- San Diego Chargers — San Diego had high hopes for its rushing attack after trading up to select Melvin Gordon in the first round of last year’s draft, but offensive line injuries and Gordon’s own poor play led to the Chargers finishing 31st in rushing DVOA. Gordon then had microfracture surgery in January, and while his long-term prognosis is positive, serious knee injuries are always unwelcome news for young running backs. The Chargers have the useful Danny Woodhead, the small-statured Branden Oliver, and the wonderfully-named Dreamius Smith behind Gordon, but there’s certainly room for another back.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Finding A Landing Spot For Greg Hardy
In PFR’s recent ranking of the best defensive free agents remaining on the board, defensive end Greg Hardy placed third, but as we noted in the post, the former Panthers and Cowboys edge rusher would probably rank first based on talent alone. We don’t intend to rehash Hardy’s off-the-field incidents, and it’s perfectly legitimate to argue that you wouldn’t want someone like Hardy on your favorite team. But the fact remains that NFL clubs will typically risk negative backlash if a player offers enough upside, and Hardy does.
Hardy, 27, has recently been lobbying for an NFL opportunity, and his agent Drew Rosenhaus is telling teams that his client has taken the necessary steps to change his behavior. But despite his double-digit sack potential, the “prevailing opinion” around the league is that nobody wants Hardy, as Ed Werder of ESPN.com reported earlier this month — one general manager called Hardy a “very hard sell,” while another called him “toxic.”
But eventually, the price will fall enough that Hardy — who, even in a down season, graded as a top-30 edge rusher per Pro Football Focus — will find a job. Let’s take a look at a few potential destinations that could make sense for Hardy…
- Atlanta Falcons — The Falcons finished dead last in the NFL with only 19 sacks in 2016, so Hardy would obviously represent a strong addition to the club’s pass rush. But Hardy is actually a solid run defender, as well, and Atlanta needs help on early downs — former No. 8 overall pick Vic Beasley is expected to play linebacker on running downs, while the re-signed Adrian Clayborn is more a edge rush specialist. Derrick Shelby was an underrated signing during the offseason, but veteran Tyson Jackson is getting at look at defensive tackle and could be in danger of being released. End, then, remains a position of need for the Falcons, and Hardy could be an answer.
- Buffalo Bills — Rex Ryan has shown a penchant for two things during his time as a head coach: bravado (as evidenced by Friday’s interview with Jenny Vrentas of Sports Illustrated), and a willingness to add players with some history of off-the-field issues. In Buffalo, Ryan & Co. have added Richie Incognito, Percy Harvin, and IK Enemkpali, and while none of that trio’s troubling incidents rival Hardy’s, Ryan hasn’t been shy about signing character risks. The Bills are reportedly switching to a stricter 3-4 defense in 2016, so Hardy, who is a prototypical 4-3 end, might not be a fit. But Ryan could surely find a way to use a rusher like Hardy, perhaps in some kind of hybrid role off the edge.
- Dallas Cowboys — Yes, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones ruled out re-signing Hardy last month, signalling that that door is officially closed. But scenarios change, and Dallas management could begin to sweat when wondering who will man defensive end while Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory serve their four-game suspensions. Restricted free agent addition Benson Mayowa probably isn’t cut out for a starting role, while Jeremy Mincey who played on more than a third of the Cowboys’ snaps last season, remains unsigned. It wouldn’t be shocking for Dallas to reverse its stance on Hardy as the regular season approaches, but then again, the club reportedly isn’t interested in fellow pass rusher Dwight Freeney, so perhaps the Cowboys are simply satisfied with their internal options.
- Detroit Lions — The Lions defense wasn’t quite as effective in 2015 after losing both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley from their defensive line, falling from No. 3 to No. 18 in Football Outsider’ DVOA despite a major progression from Ezekiel Ansah, who will obviously man one defensive end spot again in 2016. On the other side, Devin Taylor is a capable player, while free agent signing Wallace Gilberry is decent in a specific, limited role. But Hardy would change things immensely, forcing opposing offenses to account for two fearsome rushers on the edges. A front four of Haloti Ngata, rookie A’Shawn Robinson, Ansah, and Hardy could help vault Detroit’s defensive unit back into the upper echelon.
- New Orleans Saints — At 26.1% below average (per DVOA), the Saints defense ranked as the NFL’s worst unit since 2000 — only five other clubs have topped the 20% mark, and none reached New Orleans’ lows. The Saints also ranked 30th in adjusted sack rate, and though they added Sheldon Rankins and Nick Fairley to help on the interior, they could still use another edge presence opposite Cameron Jordan. Hardy would obviously fit that description, but after releasing Junior Galette (and carrying $12.1MM in dead money in 2016) because of his character questions, New Orleans might not want to take a similar risk.
- Oakland Raiders — After ranking in the middle of the pack in most defensive statistics in 2016, the Raiders spent most of the offseason upgrading its unit, inking Bruce Irvin, Aldon Smith, Sean Smith, and Reggie Nelson while using a first-round pick on safety Karl Joseph. Hardy could be the final piece on Oakland’s front seven, helping out at end on early downs before sliding inside on passing downs. A team on the rise like the Raiders might risk the public relations backlash that will come with signing Hardy in order to add a talent that could push them over the top. However, it should be noted that owner Mark Davis has been very vocal about domestic abuse and has said that he has “zero tolerance” for it.
- Philadelphia Eagles — The Eagles are transitioning to a 4-3 defense in 2016, and they actually have a sound pair of ends in Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry, a duo that figures to fit much better in an even front than an odd alignment (Connor Barwin, too, is projected to move to end, but there’s disagreement as to whether his conversion will be as smooth). A defensive coordinator like Jim Schwartz always want more pass rushers at his disposal, so Hardy could make some sense. But I have my doubts that owner Jeffrey Lurie and/or de facto general manager Howie Roseman would be willing to add a personality like Hardy.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Buccaneers reportedly considered Hardy prior to the 2015 season, and general manager Jason Licht said in March that the club had not discussed the possiblity of signing Hardy this time around. That stance could obviously change if Hardy’s price drops enough, and Tampa Bay could certainly use him, as while the club has a solid rotation at defensive end consisting of Robert Ayers, Noah Spence, William Gholston, Jacques Smith, and George Johnson, it doesn’t have a singular talent like Hardy.
Photo via Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.
PFR Originals: 5/22/16 – 5/29/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Defensive end Greg Hardy is one of only two of PFR’s top 50 free agents who remains unsigned, and you don’t need us to detail why. Hardy’s off-the-field issues have made him a toxic asset around the NFL, despite his talent, many clubs aren’t willing to risk the public relations backlash of signing him to a contract. At some point, however, the price will fall far enough that Hardy will find a new deal, so I took a look at some potential landing spots for the controversial edge rusher.
- Hardy isn’t the only pass rusher still on the market, as veteran end/linebacker Dwight Freeney is still on the board. The 36-year-old Freeney has garnered interest from both the Bengals and Falcons over the past week, and it’s only a matter of time until he finds a new home. Rory Parks asked PFR readers where they think Freeney will be playing in 2016, and so far, the Falcons, Bengals, Patriots, and the field make up the majority of votes.
- The new CBA has made rookie contracts a breeze and holdouts a thing of the past. A majority of NFL rookies have signed, but Zach Links went over the first-year players who have yet to ink their first NFL deals.
- Zach rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
Poll: Where Will Dwight Freeney Sign?
Free agent linebacker/defensive end Dwight Freeney is still available, and he still wants to play. Now 36, Freeney has continued to be effective at getting to the quarterback in the twilight years of his career, and he proved in 2015 that he still has enough gas left in the tank to be a viable situational pass rusher. In just 11 games for the Cardinals last season–Freeney did not sign with Arizona until the second week of October–the surefire Hall-of-Famer picked up eight sacks and three forced fumbles, grading out as the 51st-best edge rusher in the NFL out of 110 qualified players per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) despite being on the field for just 317 regular season snaps.
His 2015 performance was consistent with what he displayed in his 2014 campaign, his only full season with the Chargers. In 2014, Freeney amassed just 3.5 sacks, but he placed third among qualifying 3-4 OLBs with 40 quarterback hurries, and 14th with nine QB hits. In today’s NFL, one would think that there is plenty of demand for that type of production.
But Freeney, our fourth-best defensive free agent still on the board, is yet to find a new home. He visited and took a physical with the Bengals a few days ago but left Cincinnati without a contract, and he is set to visit the Falcons this week. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh brought up Freeney’s name unprompted when speaking with reporters during March’s owners meetings, but Baltimore ultimately selected three young pass rushers in the draft and already have aging veterans Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil at outside linebacker.
On the surface, the Cowboys appear to be a perfect fit for Freeney–they are a contender with an obvious need for an experienced pass rusher–but Dallas has professed to have no interest in the Syracuse alumnus. It could be that Freeney’s contract demands are too rich at the moment, though there have been no real reports as to his asking price, and he did ink a veteran’s minimum deal with Arizona last season, so the fact that Freeney remains unsigned probably has nothing to do with financial considerations.
Freeney’s preference is to return to the Cardinals, though he has described a possible stint with the Patriots as a “win-win” for both sides, and he appears to be open to playing for any contending club. But there has been no movement on the Arizona front, and New England is fairly well-stocked with edge rushers, so he may need to look elsewhere.
With all of that said, where do you think Freeney will land? Will it be one of the teams mentioned above, or someone else entirely? Indeed, our own Dallas Robinson, in compiling the above-referenced list of top defensive free agents still available, also listed the Panthers, Jets, Lions, Chiefs, and Bills as possible destinations. Or, maybe you think Freeney will have a change of heart and hang up the cleats, thereby setting his Hall of Fame countdown in motion.
Cast your vote below, and feel free to discuss in the comment section.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
PFR Originals: 5/15/16 – 5/22/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- We’re more than two months removed from the first week of NFL free agency, but there are still quite a few productive free agents left on the board. I examined the remaining players available on the offensive side of the ball, a list that includes quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, wide receiver, Anquan Boldin, and running back Arian Foster.
- I also took a look at the best players remaining on defense, where safety Donte Whitner, cornerback Leon Hall, and defensive lineman Greg Hardy round out the top three.
- After being released by the Redskins last week, receiver Andre Roberts has already drawn interest from the Bills and several other unknown clubs. I tried to find a landing spot for the 28-year-pass catcher, tossing out the Broncos, Bengals, and Raiders among several potential destinations.
- Von Miller is the most high-profile linebacker currently negotiating a long-term deal with the Broncos, but Sam Robinson looked at another Denver linebacker — Brandon Marshall — who could be up for an extension in the near future. Using DeAndre Levy, Mychal Kendricks, former Bronco Danny Trevathan, and others as comparables, Sam posited a $7MM+ yearly salary for Marshall.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
Extension Candidate: Brandon Marshall
Even if the Broncos can come to an agreement with Von Miller on a massive multi-year deal, the team could see some major changes on defense after 2016.
Four members of the Super Bowl champions’ historically elite unit will hit the open market after this season, and even though the Broncos will have more breathing room in 2017 than they have in recent years, more tough choices are coming.
Those impending decisions include talents like DeMarcus Ware, Darian Stewart and Sylvester Williams. However, Denver’s top defensive priority will likely be Brandon Marshall.
Denver hasn’t invested much at the inside linebacker position as of late, but Marshall
has been one of the league’s best non-rush linebackers since joining the Broncos’ starting lineup in 2014. The 26-year-old ‘backer — who has yet to sign his RFA tender — presents an interesting case for long-term employment despite Denver’s ILB stinginess.
The Broncos didn’t try very hard to retain Danny Trevathan this offseason, as they had higher-priority players to address. In previous years, the Broncos allowed Wesley Woodyard and Nate Irving to join up with AFC South teams on mid-level deals rather than retain them. Trevathan scored a four-year, $24.5MM deal to place him in the upper echelon of inside linebacker deals in terms of AAV. With another strong season and with the salary cap set to rise, Marshall seems likely to surpass that.
Trevathan serves as a good comparison for Marshall since they functioned in similar capacities for the Broncos last season and entered the league in 2012 as Day 3 picks. One key difference between the two players, however, is that Marshall split time between the Jaguars’ 53-man roster and taxi squad in his rookie year. That vacillation delayed his service-time clock, meaning the Broncos avoided both of their starting inside linebackers becoming UFAs in the same year.
Trevathan’s free agency arrived when Miller, Brock Osweiler, Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe were set to hit the market. Denver’s next set of notable expiring deals — the aforementioned defenders and Emmanuel Sanders — don’t present quite the financial matrix that 2016’s contingent did.
The previous year’s logjam featuring Julius Thomas, Orlando Franklin and several others probably appeared more daunting as well. As of this writing, the Broncos stand to possess the NFL’s most cap space in 2017 at $66.25MM. While this number will plummet should Miller sign by July 15, Denver’s brass will likely give more consideration to keeping Marshall than they did to retaining Trevathan.
Like Trevathan, Marshall successfully relocated to the inside after undergoing offseason surgery. Denver’s shift to a 3-4 featured a smooth transition thanks in part to Marshall’s quick adjustment. Already a well-reviewed player as a 4-3 outside ‘backer in 2014, Marshall showed no ill-effects from his foot surgery. In 2015, Marshall racked up 101 tackles and nine stops behind the line of scrimmage, tying him for the team lead with Miller and Wolfe.
While we’re on the subject of comps, it should be noted that Marshall finished with 11 tackles for loss in 2014, placing him third among non-rush ‘backers that season behind Lavonte David and DeAndre Levy. Both David and Levy received top-market extensions last summer. Pro Football Focus tabbed Marshall as a top-12 non-rush linebacker in 2014 and ’15, and a repeat could put him in line for a big payday.
Marshall separated himself somewhat from Trevathan in terms of functionality last season, serving as a three-down linebacker more often. The Broncos deployed their former practice squad talent on 1,120 snaps during 16 regular-season games in 2015, with the slightly smaller Trevathan lining up on 913 in 15 contests.
While the Broncos’ successful 2011 and 2012 draft classes created a glut of UFAs tha
t mostly defected to other teams the past two years, 2013’s draft did not go as well. That stands to provide some additional upcoming flexibility. Only Williams and Kayvon Webster remain on the team from that class, but with Marshall’s free agency being postponed a year, he serves as a de facto ’13 pick.
The Broncos stand a better chance of signing him to an extension as a result.
Denver hasn’t paid notable money for an inside linebacker since re-signing Joe Mays in 2012 on a three-year, $12MM deal. The Broncos benched Mays for an aging Keith Brooking midway into that season and released him before 2013, a campaign that featured XFL survivor Paris Lenon starting at middle linebacker in Super Bowl XLVIII.
The John Elway era has generated the most consistently dominant play from the Broncos in their 56-year history, but it hasn’t involved significant payouts to the linebackers who are not responsible for harassing quarterbacks.
Beyond Marshall, the team’s current landscape at inside linebacker is pretty thin. The Broncos did not draft an ILB last month and are counting on special-teamer Todd Davis to succeed Trevathan. A 2014 waiver claim, Davis logged 139 snaps last season and could profile as the Broncos’ next bargain-bin success story at this position. Needless to say, Marshall will be pivotal to stabilizing this corps.
It could cost as much as $8MM per season for the Broncos to keep their top inside linebacker.
The experience chasm between Marshall and his cohorts could enhance his leverage, should the Broncos not reach an extension before his contract expires. With a monstrous Miller payout likely coming and just $6.01MM in cap space available currently, Marshall may have to wait a bit for his payday.
Marshall’s age won’t be a big factor in his next deal; he’s set to turn 27 in September. Although he is not going to reside on the Luke Kuechly/Bobby Wagner financial tier even with another standout season, his versatility to excel as a 3-4 inside presence or on the outside in a 4-3 scheme makes a $7MM-plus deal per year (the Mychal Kendricks/Sean Lee/K.J. Wright tier) look reasonable.
Levy’s four-year, $33.7MM Lions extension could be Marshall’s target, but he may fall short of that, even if he hits free agency. However, the salary cap rose from $143MM in 2015 to $155MM in advance of the 2016 league year, with the next elevation set to aid the ensuing crop of UFAs’ cause. So, it’s not impossible he rises to the Levy level — no one exactly predicted Malik Jackson would become a $14MM-AAV player going into his contract year — but it’s merely improbable right now.
Trevathan’s $6MM-plus AAV salary probably won’t be sufficient for the Broncos to keep Marshall off the market, but Elway and Co. have excelled at convincing cogs to sign team-friendly deals as the recent in-season extensions for Wolfe and Chris Harris showed. Marshall, though, may be a bit harder to sway, especially after seeing so many of his draft-class peers become UFA-eligible before him.
Hoping for a new deal before the season, Marshall hasn’t signed his $2.55MM second-round tender. He’ll almost certainly sign soon, considering the Broncos hold the leverage with the ability to rescind the tender after June 15 and pay him 110 percent of his 2015 salary, which was $585K.
With the 29-year-old Sanders residing as a key component of the Broncos’ passing game, he looks to be the highest free agent priority, should Denver lock up Miller. But with so many expiring defenders, it might be wise to re-sign a front-seven piece that’s proven to excel in Wade Phillips‘ system.
As the Broncos transition to a new quarterback, keeping as many of their young, established starters from the best defense in team history will be paramount. Such a task will be more easily attained without a franchise-quarterback salary anchoring the payroll.
With Wolfe and Harris having already signed, Marshall meets this criteria as well as anyone.
Photos courtesy USA Today Sports Images.
Finding A Landing Spot For Andre Roberts
It didn’t take long for receiver Andre Roberts to generate interest after being released by the Redskins, as he took a visit with the Bills just two days after being cut loose by Washington. Roberts, whom PFR ranked as the fifth-best offensive free agent left on the board, has two more meetings planned with unknown clubs, and an additional five or six clubs are also thought to be eyeing Roberts, according to the latest reports.
Roberts, who turned 28 in January, is probably best served as a slot receiver, though he can also play on the outside if needed. Last season, Roberts appeared in nine games (zero starts) and caught a career-low 11 passes for 135 yards, but he does have a history of production in the not-so-distant future. Roberts first made a name for himself in 2012 when he stepped out of Larry Fitzgerald‘s shadow in Arizona to haul in 64 catches for 759 yards and five touchdowns.
Let’s take a look around the league and find some potential fits for Roberts…
- Atlanta Falcons — The Falcons spent a decent chunk of change on the wide receiver position this offseason, signing former Bengal Mohamed Sanu to a five-year, $32.5MM deal that included $14MM guaranteed. But Atlanta could certainly use one more veteran receiver, especially one who is relatively versatile like Roberts. Sanu is capable of playing the slot or outside, so offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan could use both he and Roberts in several different positions. With Devin Hester on the mend, Roberts would act as insurance in case second-year pass-catcher Justin Hardy isn’t ready.
- Buffalo Bills — As noted above, the Bills clearly have legitimate interest in Roberts, as they were the first team to have him in for a visit. Joe Buscaglia of WBKW looked at various position battles in Buffalo earlier tonight, and noted that Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are the only real locks at receiver. The rest of the Bills’ receiving group is made up of low-level options or young players with no NFL production, such as Greg Salas, Leonard Hankerson, Marquise Goodwin, Greg Little, and Kolby Listenbee. Roberts would fit nicely in the slot for Buffalo, and could help outside if Watkins’ foot injury becomes more serious.
- Cincinnati Bengals — On paper, the Bengals’ receiving corps looks a lot better than it did after they lost Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones earlier this offseason. Free agent signee Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd are set to start in three-wide sets opposite A.J. Green, while Brandon Tate and James Wright are penciled in as the club’s depth options. Cincinnati is well-known to prefer veterans in key roles over young players, however, so depending on how the Bengals feel about Boyd’s immediate readiness, Roberts could make some sense.
- Denver Broncos — Jordan Norwood was a known favorite of Peyton Manning last year, and was able to produce 22 receptions in 11 games. Roberts would be an improvement in the slot, and he’s actually younger (by almost two years) than Norwood. Denver is obviously set with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on the outside, but adding Roberts could be a boon to an offense that figures to be lead by one of Mark Sanchez or Paxton Lynch.
- Detroit Lions — Even after signing Marvin Jones to a five-year, $40MM deal in March, the Lions could still use more help at receiver following the retirement of Calvin Johnson. On the inside, two free agent signees — Jeremy Kerley and Andre Caldwell — figure to compete for playing time, but Roberts looks to be a superior option to either of them. Although touches could be hard to come by in Detroit, especially if tight end Eric Ebron sees more targets, Roberts would make for a solid No. 3 in the Motor City.
- Oakland Raiders — The Raiders’ offense soared in 2015, as sophomore quarterback Derek Carr broke out, teaming with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to form a fearsome unit. And while Oakland failed to add legitimate competition for running back Latavius Murray this offseason, it could still stand to improve on Seth Roberts, who is projected to see the majority time of the slot. The Raiders also re-signed pass-catcher Andre Holmes this spring, but adding in another veteran like Roberts could be a nice way to fill out an already daunting offense.
- San Francisco 49ers — The 49ers have the second-most cap space in the league at the moment, so we know that they could afford Roberts if they’re interested. And they should be, if they have any hopes of sniffing a .500 record in 2016. San Francisco’s depth chart behind Torrey Smith is extremely thin, with DeAndre Smelter, Quinton Patton, Jerome Simpson, Bruce Ellington, and rookie Aaron Burbridge filling in the gaps. The 49ers aren’t likely to contend next year, so adding a complementary receiver may seem like an unnecessary move, but Roberts would help San Francisco creep towards respectability.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Tampa is hoping that second-year receiver Kenny Bell can serve as its No. 3 option behind Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, as Jenna Laine reported last week (Twitter link). But is new head coach Dirk Koetter ready to rely on an unproven asset as his club tries to improve upon its 2015 DVOA ranking of 17th? Veteran Louis Murphy is another incumbent option for the Buccaneers, but Roberts could help Tampa Bay take the next step as it tries to challenge for a playoff berth.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Best Available NFL Free Agents: Offense
The most high-profile free agent signings occurred more than two months ago, but as we near June there are still talented NFL free agents available on the open market. Most of these players (with a few exceptions) won’t command much guaranteed money, and given that we’ve passed the May 12 deadline, none will factor into the compensatory draft pick formula. Let’s take a look at the players who will try to find a home as training camp approaches:
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: The most obvious destination for Fitzpatrick remains the Jets, who don’t intend to play second-round pick Christian Hackenberg immediately but, as of the draft, hadn’t had meaningful talks with Fitz’s camp in awhile. The 33-year-old Fitzpatrick has apparently told people he’d “rather not play football” in 2016 than accept New York’s current offer, though that seems like a negotiating ploy to get the Jets to put more than $7-8MM on the table. Gang Green holds all the leverage in this scenario, as the only other club that might have still been searching for a quarterback — the Broncos — is thought to have ended their hunt for another signal-caller after drafting Paxton Lynch last month.
2. Anquan Boldin, WR: Even as he ages, Boldin continues to post solid production — he’s managed at least 65 receptions in each of the past four years, averaging nearly 1,000 yards and five touchdowns during that time. And while the 49ers have not asked him to return in 2016, Boldin could be an option for a number of wide receiver-needy teams, as the Bengals, Steelers, Colts, Chiefs, and Giants could all make varying levels of sense for the veteran pass-catcher, especially given that he’s indicated he’d prefer to play for a contender. Boldin has taken just one free agent visit this offseason, but that team — Washington — is unlikely to still have interest given that it selected TCU wideout Josh Doctson in the first round of the draft.
3. Arian Foster, RB: There’s no question that Foster offers the highest upside of any free agent on this list, as he’s topped 1,200 yards rushing in every season that he’s remained even remotely healthy. But health, of course, has remained a hindrance throughout Foster’s career — in 2015 alone, Foster was slowed by a groin injury during camp before suffering a torn Achilles in in Week 7. The Dolphins met with Foster earlier this offseason and could still be a landing spot, while the Raiders, Eagles, and Chargers (especially if Melvin Gordon‘s recovery from microfracture surgery doesn’t go well) could be options.
4. Jahri Evans, G: Knee and ankle injuries limited Evans to 11 games in 2015, but like Foster, Evans is a solid contributor when he’s on the field, as he graded as the league’s No. 27 guard among 81 qualifiers last year, per Pro Football Focus. Entering his age-33 season, Evans might have to be willing to engage in a camp battle for a starting role, or even wait until a club suffers an injury along its offensive interior. But a team like the Broncos, who are currently projected to start sixth-round rookie Connor McGovern at right guard, could express interest.
5. Louis Vasquez, G: Vasquez isn’t quite the guard that Evans is, but he offers a vast amount of experience, as he played over 1,000 snaps in 2015 with Denver, and has started 101 games since entering the league in 2009. Not yet 30 years old, Vasquez could help a number of clubs at either guard position — he met with the Titans earlier this offseason, and depending on its assessment of Jeremiah Poutasi, Tennessee may still be interested. The Chiefs, having failed to replace Jeff Allen, could also make sense as a destination.
6. Andre Johnson, WR: After posting the worst full-season results of his career, Johnson was released by the Colts just one season into a three-year pact. Whether interested clubs will determine that Johnson was victimized by a lackluster 2015 Indianapolis (and largely Andrew Luck-less) offense — or instead conclude that Johnson is just about finished at age-34 — is an open question, but the 13-year veteran has indicated that he’d like to continue playing in 2016.
7. Will Beatty, T: Beatty is expected to be fully healthy this summer after missing the entire 2015 season with a torn pectoral muscle, but he reportedly won’t be returning to the Giants. It’s a little surprising that Beatty hasn’t yet found a home for 2016, but he shouldn’t have to wait much longer, as he’s clearly the best tackle available on the open market (his top competition is the likes of Jake Long and Mike Adams). I could see the Bears bringing in Beatty to compete with Charles Leno on the blindside, while the Cardinals could also be a feasible landing spot if they aren’t happy with D.J. Humphries — who didn’t play a single snap as a rookie — at right tackle.
8. James Jones, WR: Another season catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, another successful year for Jones, who returned to Green Bay after a year in Oakland to post 50 receptions for nearly 900 yards an eight touchdowns. Jones, now 32, has indicated that he’d like to play for awhile longer, though the Packers have reportedly moved on. After waiting until July of last year to sign with the Giants (and September to reunite with the Pack), Jones could again have to wait awhile to find a new team, but whoever signs him will be acquiring a big-play threat — in 2015, Jones ranked fourth in the league with 17.8 yards per reception.
9. Ryan Wendell, C/G: Perhaps the least recognizable name on this list, Wendell spent the last seven seasons as a utility interior lineman with the Patriots, and ended up starting 44 contests from 2012-2014. A knee injury prematurely ended Wendell’s 2015 season in November, and a March report stated that Wendell would wait until he returned to full health before signing with a new team. A return to New England can’t be ruled out, but a club like the Cardinals — who are currently projecting A.Q. Shipley to start at center — could also be on Wendell’s radar.
10. Owen Daniels, TE: Daniels has spent all ten of his NFL seasons under the tutelage of Gary Kubiak, following the coach from Houston to Baltimore and, finally, to Denver. That streak of loyalty is now in danger after the Broncos released Daniels earlier this year, though Kubiak did not rule out re-signing the veteran tight end (Denver has since signed fellow TE Garrett Graham, however). Even at age-33, Daniels performed in line with his career averages, posting 48 receptions for more than 500 yards and four touchdowns.
Honorable mention: Tarvaris Jackson, QB; Joique Bell, RB; Bryce Brown, RB; Marques Colston, WR; Brian Hartline, WR; Roddy White, WR; Khaled Holmes, C; Amini Silatolu, G.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Best Available NFL Free Agents: Defense
The most high-profile free agent signings occurred more than two months ago, but as we near June there are still talented NFL free agents available on the open market. Most of these players (with a few exceptions) won’t command much guaranteed money, and given that we’ve passed the May 12 deadline, none will factor into the compensatory draft pick formula. After examining the offensive side of the ball yesterday, let’s take a look at the defensive players who will try to find a home as training camp approaches…
1. Donte Whitner, S: Despite being released by the Browns last month, Whitner is still an excellent player, having graded as the league’s No. 24 safety among 89 qualifiers in 2015, per Pro Football Focus. Remarkably durable (he’s missed only three games in the past six years), Whitner visited with the Rams in early April, and is reportedly still on Los Angeles’ radar. Elsewhere, both the Chargers and the Cowboys could make sense as potential landing spots if San Diego and Dallas want to upgrade on Jahleel Addae and Barry Church, respectively.
2. Leon Hall, CB: Hall hasn’t lacked suitors this offseason, as the Cowboys, Cardinals, Giants, and Falcons have all shown varying levels of interest in the 31-year-old cornerback over the past several months. He’s not the boundary defender that he used to be, but Hall is a productive slot corner, which essentially makes him a starter in today’s NFL. Health questions have nagged Hall throughout his entire career, and an offseason back procedure won’t quiet those concerns, but the former Bengal figures to find a new home sooner rather than later.
3. Greg Hardy, DE: Clearly the best defender on this list in terms of pure talent, Hardy’s off-the-field issues don’t need to be rehashed here. The 27-year-old edge rusher and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, are apparently lobbying NFL clubs for an opportunity, detailing the steps Hardy has taken to correct his pattern of behavior. However, it doesn’t appear as though many teams are convinced Hardy has changed his tune, as sources told Ed Werder of ESPN.com that no one is interested in Hardy, with executives calling him — at best — a “hard sell” to ownership and — at worst — “toxic.”
4. Dwight Freeney, LB/DE: Freeney spent roughly a third of the 2015 season at home, waiting until the Cardinals called in October to get back on an NFL field. Now 36 years old, Freeney has become something of a cause célèbre of mine, as I think he’s a far more valuable player than the league apparently does. I outlined Freeney’s tools in April of last year, and much of what I wrote at the time still holds — any number of clubs could benefit from allowing Freeney to get after the quarterback 20-25 times per game. A reunion with Arizona isn’t out of the question, and the Ravens, Bengals, Panthers, Jets, Patriots, Lions, Chiefs, and Bills could all use an extra edge rusher.
5. Brandon Boykin, CB: At age 25, Boykin surprisingly had to settle for a minimum salary benefit contract to join the Panthers in March — he lasted less than two months on the roster, as he was released by Carolina earlier this week. That series of events, coupled with Boykin’s relative lack of playing time after being dealt to the Steelers last year, is hard to figure, as Boykin is considered one of the premier slot corners in the game. With teams lining up in sub packages more than 60% of the time, Boykin is capable of playing a substantial role, and shouldn’t stay on the street for long.
6. Mike Neal, LB: Neal started a career-high 15 games last season, and has posted at least four sacks in each of the past four years. He’s met with both the Lions and the Seahawks this offseason, but has yet to sign a contract, and would seemingly only be in line for a one-year pact at this point. The Packers selected fellow linebacker Kyler Fackrell in the third round of last month’s draft, so Green Bay probably isn’t an option (though Neal is open to returning). It’s possible that the 2015 Al Jazeera report that linked Neal to PEDs is hindering his market, a sentiment with which Neal agrees.
7. Chris Culliver, CB: It’s been a trying 12 months or so for Culliver, whose 2015 one-game suspension voided his 2016 $8MM guarantee, making it much easier for Washington to release him — which they did earlier this month. Culliver, 27, also tore his ACL in November, meaning his availability for the start of the season could be in doubt. But Culliver is the one true outside cornerback on this list, and he has also has youth on his side. A smart team might sign Culliver to a two-year deal with limited or no guarantees for the 2017 season, let him rehab for the first half of 2016, and then evaluate him over the course of November and December.
8. Antrel Rolle, S: Rolle isn’t going to get the same kind of offers that fellow safety Whitner will — not only is he more than three years older, but Rolle ranked a little lower among safeties than did Whitner, coming in at No. 39 in the NFL according to PFF. Rolle has expressed an interest in reuniting with the Giants, with whom he spent the 2010-14 seasons, and on paper, it’s a match that makes a lot of sense, as New York needs a rangy free safety opposite Landon Collins. The Rams, Falcons, and Buccaneers could have interest in the veteran defensive back, as could the Colts if they plan to move 2016 second-rounder T.J. Green to cornerback, as has been rumored.
9. O’Brien Schofield, LB: Schofield and the Falcons were said to be working on a deal as far back as early March, but no signing ever came to fruition. At the time, the Cowboys, Bears, and Titans were reported to have interest in Schofield, and while he’s expressed his preference to return to Atlanta, he remains a free agent. Head coach Dan Quinn has stated he hopes that Schofield is re-signed, and the Falcons have in fact made an offer. Primarily a nickel linebacker, Schofield agreed to a two-year deal with the Giants in 2014 only to see it fall apart due to medical concerns — it’s unclear whether his current disagreement with Atlanta is due to injury questions or financial disparities.
10. Jeremy Mincey, DE: At 32 years old, Mincey isn’t going to suddenly blossom into a star, but he’s more than capable of being thrown into a defensive end rotation on a team that runs a 4-3 scheme. Mincey didn’t post any sacks last season, but he registered six quarterback takedowns in 2014, which led to him holding out for an extra $500K the following offseason. The Cowboys reportedly aren’t interested in a reunion, but Mincey did generate some level of trade interest last November, so it’s likely that there are clubs who’d be willing to offer a one-year deal.
Honorable mention: Chris Canty, DL; Henry Melton, DT; Kevin Williams, DT; Cortez Allen, CB; Antonio Cromartie, CB; Cortland Finnegan, CB; Jayron Hosley, CB; Will Allen, S.
Safety Walter Thurmond was not included on this list because he’s contemplating retirement and has reportedly turned down offers of $4MM per year.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Community Tailgate: Least Improved NFL Team
Even with the 2016 offseason largely in the rearview mirror, there are still plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top talking points in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.
Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.
In yesterday’s Community Tailgate, we asked PFR readers which NFL team had improved the most during the 2016 offseason, tossing out the Jaguars, Bears, Giants, and Raiders as possible contenders for that title. Today, we’ll look at the other side of that coin, examining which NFL clubs did the least to reinforce their respective rosters over the past several months.
The Browns are clearly in full-on rebuilding mode, and I even included them as an off-the-wall option in my write-up of the most improved teams, as one could argue that GM Sashi Brown & Co. did a great job amassing future assets through trading down in the draft. However, despite a draft class that was largely applauded, the on-field product in Cleveland figures to be sub-par once again. During the free agent period, the Browns saw Alex Mack, Tashaun Gipson, Mitchell Schwartz, and Travis Benjamin walk out the door, while the club added low-cost options like Robert Griffin III and Demario Davis. Cleveland figures to come away with the maximum of four compensatory picks in 2017, but the 2016 season is likely to be rough.
While the Browns’ struggles have been well-documented, the Broncos were by definition the most successful team of 2015, winning the Super Bowl in Peyton Manning‘s final season at the helm. And while Denver traded up to acquire their quarterback of the future in Paxton Lynch, the club’s second-round pick, Georgia Tech defensive tackle Adam Gotsis was considered a reach. In free agency, the Broncos, hindered by salary cap issues, let a lot of talent leave, as Brock Osweiler, Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, Evan Mathis, David Bruton, Ryan Harris, and others left the building. Denver did add a few offensive line reinforcements in Russell Okung and Donald Stephenson, but it’s hard to say that the team is as good as it was in 2015.
The 49ers didn’t lose a ton of talent during the offseason, as guard Alex Boone was the only major defection, but aside from the draft, Trent Baalke and Chip Kelly didn’t add many play-makers, either. It’s possible to argue that the Niners don’t plan on competing in 2016 and thus are amassing assets (like the Browns), but if that’s the case, this offseason can still be considered a failure. San Francisco didn’t trade down once during the draft, and in fact traded up, sacrificing 136 cents on the dollar to move up only nine spots to select a guard. The 49ers also failed to rid themselves of Colin Kaepernick‘s contract, and didn’t make any meaningful free agent signings (apologies to Zane Beadles).
Elsewhere in the NFC West, the Rams managed to find their quarterback of the future in Jared Goff, and it’s hard to blame them for giving up a king’s ransom to secure a long-term option at the most important position on the field. But Los Angeles, which had the fourth-most cap space entering the offseason, didn’t do much to add talent around Goff. The Rams did not make a single upgrade to their offensive line, either in free agency or through the draft, and only used mid-round picks to add offensive weapons. The club also let two high-profile secondary defenders, safety Rodney McLeod and cornerback Janoris Jenkins, walk in free agency.
The Bengals have made a habit of not entering the free agent market, and it’s a strategy that’s worked out, as they’ve made five consecutive postseason appearances. But with a boatload of key free agents leaving this offseason, one might have argued that Cincinnati should have made an effort to bring in a few outside additions. The Bengals did re-sign Adam Jones and George Iloka, but after seeing Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Reggie Nelson, Leon Hall, and others vanish, Cincinnati made only low-cost free agent signings, including linebacker Karlos Dansby and receiver Brandon LaFell. And instead of considering a trade up to acquire a top-notch receiver in Round 1, the Bengals waited until Day 2, drafting Pittsburgh’s Tyler Boyd, who is thought to be a slot receiver at best.
It’s hard to blame the Chiefs for not making a ton of moves this offseason, as they were strapped for salary cap space. But Kansas City did see quite a few free agent defections, as Sean Smith, Chase Daniel, Jeff Allen, and Donald Stephenson all left for new homes, while Mike DeVito and Husain Abdullah opted to retire. The Chiefs made only one major free agent signing — right tackle Mitchell Schwartz — and drafted only one player, defensive lineman Chris Jones, who can be counted on to contribute in 2016 (although some do think third-round corner KeiVarae Russell has a bright future).
What do you think? Did one of these teams do the least to upgrade its roster? Or did we forget someone? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!