PFR Originals: 7/10/16 – 7/17/16
The original analysis and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Prior to Friday’s 3pm CT deadline for franchise players to agree to extensions with their respective clubs, Zach Links ran down each player’s situation, examining who among the crop was likely to agree to new deals. Eventually, Von Miller (Broncos), Muhammad Wilkerson (Jets), and Justin Tucker (Ravens) inked long-term pacts, while Alshon Jeffery (Bears), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Trumaine Johnson (Rams), and Eric Berry (Chiefs) will play under the franchise tender.
- In our latest Community Tailgate segment, Rory Parks asked which franchise deadline deal — or non-deal — was the biggest surprise. Wilkerson’s extension with the Jets was so unexpected that it wasn’t even announced until 30 minutes after the deadline, while Berry, on the other hand, was long thought to be closing in on a pact with the Chiefs, but ultimately couldn’t come to terms.
- PFR has continued to look back at the offseasons for all 32 clubs, examining the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable offseason events for each team. We covered six clubs over the past week:
- Meanwhile, PFR has also continued to go over each team’s rookie class with the assistance of scouting guru Dave-Te Thomas, who has served as a consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades. Dave covered five clubs last week:
- Zach rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
6 Key Stories: 7/10/16 – 7/17/16
The headlines from the past week at PFR:
The franchise tag deadline spurs action. 3pm CT came and went on Friday with three more franchise players agreeing to extensions with their respective clubs. Broncos linebacker Von Miller was first, inking a six-year, $114.5MM deal that made him the highest-paid defender in the NFL. Kicker Justin Tucker was next, signing a four-year, $16.8MM pact with the Ravens after some acrimony. And at the eleventh hour, Muhammad Wilkerson shocked the league by agreeing to a five-year, $86MM accord with the Jets. Meanwhile, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery, Chiefs safety Eric Berry, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson, and Redskins Kirk Cousins all failed to reach extensions with their respective clubs.
Deflategate is finally over…probably. The NFL’s long national nightmare is over, as Patriots quarterback Tom Brady announced that he would no longer fight his four-game suspension that resulted from the Defaltegate controversy. Brady had
considered taking his appeal to the Supreme Court, but will instead accept a ban that will cause him to miss games against the Cardinals, Dolphins, Texans, and Bills, leaving Jimmy Garoppolo in the starting role for the first month of the season. The NFLPA, however, might not be ready to give up Brady’s cause.
Extensions continue to roll in. We are squarely in the midst of extension season, and two players agreed to long-term pacts this week. Just months after being waived by the Redskins, cornerback David Amerson is now a highly-paid starting corner, inking a four-year, $38MM extension with the Raiders. It’s quite the turnaround for Amerson, who turned into a reliable option once he arrived in the Bay Area. Meanwhile, Giants punter Brad Wing also signed on the dotted line of a three-year, $6.45MM pact which contains $3.725MM in guarantees (No. 7 among punters).
Suspensions affect 2016 plans. Amidst the franchise tag news on Friday, the NFL also announced two substance abuse-related suspensions, banning 49ers linebacker Aaron Lynch (link) and Bills running back Karlos Williams (link) for four games apiece. Perhaps the best edge rusher on San Francisco’s roster, Lynch might have to wait on scoring a long-term extension until the club deems him reliable. Williams, meanwhile, had already shown up to camp overweight, and will only add to Buffalo’s running back problems, as rookie Jonathan Williams was recently arrested for DUI.
Isaiah Crowell posts a disturbing image. The Browns have no plans to waive Crowell after the running back made an Instagram post depicting a police offer being stabbed in the neck by a hooded man, but the club and the public have expressed 
disappointment with the third-year back. Crowell quickly deleted the post, and has since made public apologies to both the Cleveland and Dallas police departments. In addition, Crowell will donate his Week 1 game check to the Dallas Fallen Officer Foundation.
The supplemental draft ends quickly. The 2016 supplemental draft didn’t see a single player chosen, as every NFL club passed on its chance to draft one of seven eligible players. Before the Rams picked offensive tackle Isaiah Battle in 2015, three years had gone by without a player being selected, so a quiet supplemental draft isn’t exactly without precedent. However, two players who were involved in the draft did find landing spots relatively soon, as defensive tackle Ra’Zahn Howard signed with the Texans and wide receiver Rashaun Simonise agreed to terms with the Bengals.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NFC Notes: A. Lynch, C. Johnson, Cook, Best
Linebacker Aaron Lynch‘s four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy will not only put a cap on his 2016 production, but make an long-term extension with the 49ers increasingly unlikely, according to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. The 23-year-old Lynch, considered perhaps the best edge rusher on San Francisco’s roster, is a building block on a club that isn’t expected to win many games during the upcoming season. He’ll be eligible for a new deal after the 2016 campaign, but general manager Trent Baalke & Co. will likely want to ensure that Lynch can be trusted before locking him up for the long haul, per Maiocco.
Here’s more from the NFC:
- After being released and re-signed by the Panthers, defensive end Charles Johnson admits this is something of a make-or-break year. “Of course,” Johnson told Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer. “I’ve got to prove myself, right? I’m only signed to a one-year deal, so I got to go out and prove myself.” Carolina saved $8MM by cutting and re-signing Johnson earlier this year, lowering his base salary from a scheduled $11M down to $3MM. Though he played in only nine games in 2015 and posted just a single sack, Johnson was also hampered by injury, so his performance can be somewhat excused. Johnson isn’t exactly washed up, either, as he’s still under 30 years old, and averaged 11 sacks per season from 2012-14.
- Packers general manager Ted Thompson went outside his comfort zone and signed an external free agent this offseason, inking tight end Jared Cook after he was released by the Rams, and Aaron Rodgers is hoping Cook and incumbent Richard Rogers can form a lethal combination. “We haven’t figured that out yet,” Rodgers told Rob Reischel of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “Obviously we haven’t even put the pads on, so we’re just trying to work through it. Obviously when you have two tight ends on the field it creates a matchup problem, so we’ll see where that goes.” Cook, who has never appeared in a playoff game during his NFL career, signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Green Bay that contains $900K in incentives.
- Former Lions running back Jahvid Best will compete in the Summer Olympics as a member of Saint Lucia’s track team, write Nick Zaccardi and Seth Rubinroit of NBC Sports. Best, who holds dual citizenship and has a Saint Lucian father, will become the first athlete with NFL experience to compete in the Summer Games. Former NFLer Herschel Walker participated in the 1982 Winter Olympics, while Patriots safety Nate Ebner could join Best this summer, as he’s trying out for the U.S. rugby squad.
Franchise Tag Leftovers: Mo, Miller, T. Johnson
As of last weekend, Muhammad Wilkerson and his camp had all but accepted that a long-term deal with the Jets was not to be, according to Brian Costello of the New York Post. But beginning on Wednesday night, when New York began to make a last-ditch effort to retain its franchise player for the long haul, things began to change, as the club sent a new offer to Wilkerson’s agent. Though the star defensive end was angling for a six-year contract, Wilkerson was open to a five-year pact as long it contained an average value and guarantees similar to that of Fletcher Cox, who signed an extension with the Eagles last month. The club responded by emailing a final proposal at 3:15am ET Friday morning, and Wilkerson and his team accepted in time for the paperwork to be completed by Friday’s 4pm ET deadline.
Here’s more on several of the franchise-tagged players:
- Despite his off-the-field drama, Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson is likely to be more expensive than Wilkerson whenever the club looks to extend him, writes Darryl Slater of NJ.com. While Wilkerson has never been involved in any off-the-field incidents, Richardson served a four-game suspension in 2015 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and is facing a one-game ban in 2016 for a conduct policy infraction. Still, given that the salary cap is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years, Wilkerson should be able to score a large contract. Of course, New York has increased its leverage by locking up Wilkerson and drafting Leonard Williams in the first round last year.
- While Von Miller is fully guaranteed $42MM under the terms of his extension with the Broncos, the All Pro edge rusher is essentially guaranteed $78.5MM given the structure of the contract, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk details. Because of the payout schedule, Denver would have to accept $32.8MM in dead money in order to cut Miller before March 2018. The next year, $9MM of Miller’s $17.5MM fully guarantees in March, meaning the Broncos would need to be willing to release Miller rather than pay him for one more season at an effective cost of $8.5MM. Jason Fitzgerald of the Sporting News, meanwhile, points out that Miller’s relatively cheap signing bonus ($17MM) means he doesn’t have much dead money protection in the final two years of the deal.
- The Rams made the right call in not extending cornerback Trumaine Johnson, argues Vincent Bonsignore of InsideSoCal.com. Johnson was largely part-time player prior to 2015, and while he posted a breakout campaign during his first season as a full-time starter, there’s still some uncertainty regarding his play. And given that Johnson had no incentive to sign a new deal that averaged less than his $13.9MM franchise tag, Los Angeles didn’t have much room to negotiate. Instead, the club can use 2016 as a measuring stick, and either franchise Johnson again after the season, or re-engage talks about a long-term deal.
- As Florio opines in a separate piece, the franchise tag isn’t a bad proposition for the players who didn’t agree to extensions with their respective clubs. Though none of Alshon Jeffery, Kirk Cousins, Eric Berry, or Johnson scored long-term security, they will each be among the highest-paid players at their positions for the upcoming season.
Latest On Rolando McClain
The Cowboys are still contemplating whether to terminate the contract of linebacker Rolando McClain, sources tell Charean Williams of the Star-Telegram. McClain will be suspended for the first 10 games of the 2016 season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and while members of the Dallas organization would like to see him released, salary cap ramifications have precluded the club from making such a move at this point.
[RELATED: Reviewing the Dallas Cowboys’ offseason]
McClain will forfeit 10/17 of his $4MM base salary, roughly $2.35MM, as a result of his NFL-imposed ban, and the Cowboys are also entitled to recoup 10/17 of McClain’s $750K signing bonus, which amounts to ~$441K. In total, if McClain makes it back for the season’s final seven weeks, Dallas will only be on the hook for about $1.209MM. Additionally, under the terms of the contractual bargaining agreement, the Cowboys would not be able to reclaim any of that total if they do choose to cut McClain, according to Williams. “The main thing is strategically, [financially], it’s not good for us and he doesn’t take up an active spot on the roster [during the season],” said owner Jerry Jones of releasing McClain.
And from a purely financial standpoint, Jones is correct — there is no fiscal downside to keeping Jones on the suspended list for the first few months of the season, and because he won’t be a part of the 53-man roster, the Cowboys aren’t playing a man short in order to keep him around. Jones, for his part, is McClain’s “biggest supporter within the organization,” per Williams, as the club’s owner/GM was the primary force in talking McClain out of retirement in 2014.
[Related: Updated Dallas Cowboys depth chart]
On the field, Dallas will need to find a replacement for McClain, and the club has reportedly been talking with veteran Justin Durant about a possible reunion. I recently examined a few internal and external options for the Cowboys as they seek to find someone to hold down middle linebacker.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Broncos, Von Miller Closing In On Deal
FRIDAY, 12:34pm: We’re at least an hour away from a resolution, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (on Twitter) hears.
10:54am: The two sides are “closing in” on a deal, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets. In addition to the previously reported terms, Miller is set to receive $70MM fully guaranteed by March of 2018.
9:44am: Right now, it’s about a “98% certainty” that Miller will sign the six-year, $114.5MM offer with $70MM guaranteed today, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report tweets.
THURSDAY, 11:02pm: The Broncos and franchise player Von Miller appear to inching closer to an agreement, and the two sides are fully expected to finalize a deal on Friday, according to Mike Klis of 9NEWS, who adds that the club has likely extended its final proposal. Denver is now offering Miller $70MM in guaranteed money, and there is optimism emerging from both camps as talks head in the “right direction,” per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter links).
[RELATED: Reviewing the 2016 Denver Broncos offseason]
Miller and Denver had already reportedly agreed to the overarching framework of an extension, and had informally worked out six-year, $114.5MM contract that would make Miller the league’s highest-paid defensive player on an annual basis. But the hangup in negotiations has always been guarantee structure and triggers (ie. when the guarantees would kick in), as Miller wants to eclipse the roughly ~$60MM guaranteed to defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.
The $70MM guaranteed figure refers to “essential guarantees,” according to Klis, and there’s still some confusion as to what that term means. It could plausibly refer to fully guaranteed cash, and if so, Miller would have secured the largest full guarantee in NFL history. But more likely, given Klis’ wording, the $70MM total is in reference to either injury guarantees or “effective” guarantees, the latter being money that it would be nearly impossible for Miller not to earn. Either way, the majority of Miller’s guarantee will be paid out in the first two years of the contract, report Adam Schefter and Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com.
The Broncos and general manager John Elway submitted a new offer to Miller and his camp over the weekend, and the two sides have apparently been discussing the offer since. Per the ESPN scribes, Denver and Miller’s team did not have “substantive talks” on Thursday, but are expected to reconvene on Friday to further hammer out the deal.
Like all franchise-tagged players, Miller has until 3pm Friday to reach an extension with his club or else will be forced to play out the 2016 season under the franchise tender. However, Miller has been adamant that he will sit out the year instead of playing under the tag, which would fully guarantee him ~$14MM.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extra Points: Agholor, Tucker, Ravens, Bears
Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor was informed today that he will not be charged in connection with a June rape claim, a source told Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Though the Philadelphia district attorney’s office declined comment, Bowen hears that an announcement could soon be made that clears Agholor. But as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes, there’s a chance Agholor could still face discipline from the league.
Here’s more from around the league on the eve of franchise tag deadline day:
- Although Justin Tucker and his agent claimed earlier today that he would not re-sign with the Ravens in 2017 if forced to play under the franchise tag this season, Florio argues that continually accepting the franchise tender isn’t much of a risk for kickers. If Tucker is franchised again next season, he’ll earn a fully guaranteed $9.9MM over the next two years, a larger total that he would secure in guaranteed money on a long-term deal. And because kickers don’t have the injury risk that comes with playing other positions, there’s effectively no downside for Tucker. Meanwhile, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com examines whether Tucker should earn more than Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowksi, whose contract Tucker is reportedly looking to top.
- Given how negotiations played out between the Redskins and quarterback Kirk Cousins, there could be some question as to who holds final authority in Washington, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN (link via CSNMidAtlantic.com). General manager Scot McCloughan may have wanted to sign Cousins to an extension at some point during the season, but unnamed others — presumably owner Dan Snyder — didn’t feel the same way.
- Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin are among the NFL assistants who could be candidates for head coaching jobs next offseason, Mike Sando of ESPN.com writes (Insider subscription required). Both play-callers have been interviewed for a number of gigs in the past, but despite both having success at various stops, neither has ever been hired for a head job. Other options who could expect phone calls next year are the Colts‘ Rob Chudzinski, the Buccaneers‘ Mike Smith, and the Vikings‘ George Edwards, per Sando.
- D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution examines five players who might be considered longshots to make the Falcons‘ roster, and linebacker LaRoy Reynolds is among the group. The 25-year-old will be entering his fourth NFL season, and despite appearing in 43 career games, Reynolds has never earned a real shot at playing time, performing mostly on special teams.
AFC East Notes: Bills, Pats, Brady, Jets, Fins
Bills rookie running back Jonathan Williams was arrested in Arkansas on Thursday morning and charged with driving while intoxicated, ArkansasMatters.com reported today. Williams, selected in the fifth round of the draft earlier this year, will almost certainly face a league-imposed suspension, which is not exactly the best way to begin one’s NFL career. It hasn’t been a banner offseason for Buffalo’s running back corps as a whole, as starter LeSean McCoy was involved in an altercation in February, while Karlos Williams showed up to camp overweight last month.
Here’s more out of the AFC East:
- Although he likely wouldn’t say it publicly, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick might privately want Tom Brady to accept his four-game suspension and move on, opines Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. If Brady simply missed the first four games of the season, New England would have the entire summer to prepare the club for backup Jimmy Garoppolo to take over. But if Brady is granted a stay and is then re-suspended in the middle of the year, the Pats could be thrown into a frenzy as their quarterback sits on the bench for the next quarter-season. Nevertheless, Brady is expected to take his case to the Supreme Court.
- General manager Mike Maccagnan and the Jets were “shocked” when defensive lineman Leonard Williams fell to them at the sixth overall selection in last year’s draft, and the former USC pass rusher has proven critical to the club’s future, as Brian Costello of the New York Post details. Not only did Williams post a solid rookie season in 2015, but he gives New York more leverage as they continue to negotiate with franchise player Muhammad Wilkerson. With Williams and Sheldon Richardson in tow, Gang Green can’t be backed into a corner by Wilkerson and his camp.
- Given that he was chosen in the sixth round, wide receiver Jakeem Grant doesn’t have a Dolphins roster spot locked down, but his easiest path to making the final 53 is likely via special teams duty, as James Walker of ESPN.com writes. Grant returned four kickoffs for scores while at Texas Tech, and according to Walker, he’s the favorite to take over that role for Miami. He’ll need to carve out a space somewhere, because Grant is unlikely to earn playing time behind pass-catching options that include Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Leonte Carroo.
West Notes: Von, Broncos, Woodley, C. Jones
As we learned earlier this evening, the Broncos and linebacker Von Miller appear to be on the precipice of reaching a six-year deal that will contain $70MM in “solid” guarantees, and while it’s unclear exactly what “solid” refers to in this case, it’s fair to assume that Miller will receive $70MM either fully guaranteed or effectively guaranteed. But Miller was apparently seeking a higher total not too long ago — $75MM to be exact, according to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (Twitter link), who adds that Miller set that financial goal after Andrew Luck agreed to a mega-deal with the Colts last month. However the specifics of Miler’s pact turn out, he’s set to become the highest paid defensive player in NFL history on an annual basis, and depending on the nature of the guarantees, could secure the largest amount of guaranteed money the league has ever seen.
Here’s more on Miller, the Broncos, and a few other clubs from the NFL’s West divisions:
- While Miller is worth the nearly $20MM per year salary that he’s about to earn, Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post opines that Miller might not be the wisest investment for the Broncos. The negotiations between general manager John Elway and Miller’s camp have been sticky at times, and could make a lasting impression as other free agents talk with Denver management. The Broncos, meanwhile, have paused talks with wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders while hammering out details with Miller, and Kiszla argues that no non-quarterback — no matter how talented — can provide surplus value when earning $20MM per annum.
- Speaking of troublesome negotiations, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk harkens back to 2013, when the Broncos failed to complete the necessary paperwork on a contract restructure for Elvis Dumervil — after a deadline came and went, Dumervil hit free agency and ultimately signed with the Ravens. So although reports indicate that Miller and Denver are close to working something out, the two sides may want to submit the agreement ahead of time in order to prevent another fiasco.
- Appearing on SiriusXM NFL Radio today, linebacker LaMarr Woodley lamented the fact that no NFL teams have thus far expressed interest in him, and maintained that he’s kept in shape throughout the offseason. “I can’t make a team call me. So all I can do is prepare myself and keep myself ready, but also I’m going to make sure that my mind is working and that I’m doing other things — things that I can control,” said Woodley, who spent 2015 with the Cardinals. The 31-year-old suggested last month that he’s prepared for life after football if he isn’t able to secure a contract.
- NFC West newcomer Chandler Jones will help the Cardinals generate a consistent pass rush during the upcoming season, writes Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com. Arizona and defensive coordinator James Bettcher are well-known for “manufacturing” an edge rush, sending players from various directions and from different fronts in order to get to the quarterback. But Jones, who posted 12.5 sacks last year for the Patriots, gives the Cards a player who can beat offensive lineman on his own merit.
Minor NFL Transactions: 7/14/16
Today’s minor moves:
- The Panthers have signed cornerback Leonard Johnson and waived fellow defensive back Shaq Richardson, the club announced today. The 26-year-old Johnson spent the first three seasons of his career with the Buccaneers before joining the Patriots in 2015, and has seen significant action at slot corner throughout his time in the NFL, accruing 20 starts between Tampa Bay and New England. Carolina signed nickel cornerback Brandon Boykin earlier this year, but released him after he spent only two months or so with the team, so the Panthers could use help at inside corner. Richardson, meanwhile, was selected by the Steelers in the fifth round of the 2014 draft, but has yet to appear in an NFL contest.
- The Eagles have waived defensive tackle Derrick Lott, according to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). Lott, a Chattanooga alum, was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Titans in 2015. After spending the entirety of last year bouncing on and off the Buccaneers’ practice squad, he agreed to terms with the Eagles in late May.