PFR Originals News & Rumors

Patriots Move Into Top 2025 Draft Slot

December 29th, 2024 at 10:15pm CST by Ely Allen

With surprising wins today by the Giants and Raiders, the top of the draft order was shaken up once more. The Raiders, now on a two-game winning streak, have plummeted from a top-two pick to No. 8 overall, and a win by the Giants knocked the Colts out of playoff contention and knocked New York down three draft slots to No. 4 overall. Here’s a quick look at some other consequences of today’s games.

Today’s wins and losses have now placed New England in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall spot. If the Patriots lose in their season finale to the Bills, they will secure the rights to the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. This opens up a number of possibilities for New England. The Patriots have holes on the offensive line, receiving corps, pass rush, and cornerbacks group.

For some time, the top picks have been projected to be Miami quarterback Cam Ward or Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, but with no need to draft a quarterback with a top pick for the second year in a row, the Patriots are poised to shake things up. With no elite options at offensive line in this year’s draft class, they could go for Heisman-winning athlete Travis Hunter from Colorado, who could fill holes at both cornerback and receiver. Arizona receiver Tetairoa McMillan is another top receiver option who projects as a stronger receiving prospect than Hunter. They could also go for Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter, though that would seem like a bit of a reach in the top spot.

The other option available to New England opens the door for any of the quarterback-needy teams to trade up into the No. 1 overall pick. The Titans (No. 2), Browns (No. 3), and Giants all have interest in adding a top quarterback to the roster. One of these teams may pursue that quarterback through free agency with Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins all currently on their way to free agency. If not, they can take a chance and hope to land Ward or Sanders in their current slots.

They may also want to keep an eye on teams like the Panthers (No. 6), Jets (No. 7), and Raiders, though, as all of those teams may have interest in trading into the top draft slot. All three of those teams have quarterback situations that could greatly benefit from the addition of Ward or Sanders, and the Patriots could likely still fill a major need — even offensive line — after moving back later in the top-10 picks. It would also make selections like Carter or Michigan cornerback Will Johnson seem like less of a reach.

There are way too many possibilities to speculate on from this situation at this point in time, but New England’s prospective hold on the No. 1 overall pick introduces a litany of fun potential outcomes. They will need to close it out with a home defeat at the hands of the Bills next week, but the chaos from today’s games has provided plenty for draft nerds to drool over in the days to come.

Extension Candidate: Nik Bonitto

December 26th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Sam Robinson

As the Broncos reconstructed their pass-rushing corps following the Von Miller trade, high-profile veterans Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory headlined the team’s depth chart. Baron Browning and fellow Ohio State alum-turned-2021 Broncos draftee Jonathon Cooper loomed as rotational pieces as well. The team’s plans changed fairly quickly to start its first post-Miller season.

Denver traded Chubb for a big haul, collecting first- and fourth-round picks from the Dolphins for the 2018 first-rounder. The team, which had dealt two firsts and six more assets to the Seahawks for Russell Wilson, then sent that first to the Saints for Sean Payton‘s rights. Immediately coming in as the lead decision-maker in Denver, Payton bailed on Gregory and has since traded Browning — a 2021 third-rounder. That trade with the Cardinals came days after the Broncos extended Cooper at what looks like a team-friendly rate, considering what the emerging edge defender could have made if he tested the 2025 free agent market.

While Cooper’s four-year, $54MM deal locks the seventh-round success story in through 2028, the Broncos’ other OLB starter has become one of the NFL’s top 2024 breakthroughs. Chosen with the second-round pick obtained from the Rams in the Miller trade, Nik Bonitto has produced a season that will price him well north of the range into which Cooper settled. Eligible for an extension next month, the third-year EDGE will provide an interesting case for a Broncos team that is both building around a rookie-quarterback contract while still paying the penalty for its previous QB mistake.

Coming to Denver as a pass rush specialist deemed a work-in-progress against the run, Bonitto has delivered the Broncos’ first double-digit sack season since Miller and Chubb both did so in 2018. The Broncos kept seeing injuries derail further efforts to deploy Miller and Chubb together, but thus far, Bonitto and Cooper have been catalysts for the team’s defensive turnaround. With Cooper locked in, the focus will shift to Bonitto, whose rookie contract runs through next season.

Bonitto’s 11.5 sacks are tied for fourth in the NFL; the Oklahoma alum’s 20 QB hits match his full-season total from 2023. Bonitto’s 32 pressures are tied for 11th leaguewide. The improved defender also has memorably produced two defensive touchdowns, recording a pick-six against the Browns and then snatching a backward pass — on a slow-developing Colts trick play — and adding a second score. While Bovada gives Patrick Surtain the only realistic chance to overtake T.J. Watt as Defensive Player of the Year, Bonitto sits third among the odds for this award.

For a Broncos team that made three of this century’s worst personnel decisions (hiring Nathaniel Hackett as HC, trading for Wilson and then extending him), Bonitto has provided a vital spark — particularly with regards to GM George Paton‘s job status. Continuing to fight off rumors he might be jettisoned, Paton has given the now-Payton-led team integral pieces via the draft. Bo Nix obviously headlines the Broncos’ roster right now, but Surtain, Bonitto, Cooper and Quinn Meinerz have been important pieces to the team turning its operation around despite carrying a staggering $90.1MM in dead money.

Paton has extended Surtain, Meinerz, Cooper and John Elway-era draftee Garett Bolles this year. Bonitto’s 2024 season may be good enough that the Broncos cannot realistically entertain not paying him by 2026. The franchise tag could come into play for the former No. 64 overall pick at that point, as Bonitto’s value has climbed to an interesting place. But the Broncos would be wise to engage in earlier extension talks with their top pass rusher.

Cooper’s deal only made him the league’s 22nd-highest-paid edge rusher. It would seem unrealistic the Broncos could present Bonitto an offer outside the top 10 in that market. Anything beyond the top five ($25MM AAV and up) may also be a stretch, as both Brian Burns and Josh Hines-Allen each reached $28MM per year on their 2024 extensions. Those pacts rank second and third among edge players, and the market will change soon.

Fireworks are also likely coming in this market next year, with the likes of Watt, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons and Trey Hendrickson entering contract years. Bonitto would be wise to wait to see what the market looks like late next summer, while the Broncos would be better off making an early move — as they did with Surtain this summer — and paying their ascending OLB before the top of the market changes.

The team took on the bulk of the Wilson dead money this year, carrying $53MM in dead cap on its payroll, but $30MM-plus is due to hit next year. That undercuts a Broncos effort to capitalize on Nix’s rookie deal. The Broncos’ 2026 cap sheet will look a bit better, with Nix still on rookie terms and Wilson’s contract removed from the equation, but a Bonitto extension — assuming Nix’s upward trajectory continues — would stand to overlap with a monster QB extension by the late 2020s. That would be a good problem for a Broncos team that whiffed many times trying to replace Peyton Manning, however.

Surtain and four of the team’s five offensive line starters are all now signed through at least 2026. Courtland Sutton and D-lineman Zach Allen‘s contracts go through 2025. Like Nix and this contingent, Bonitto has established himself as a core performer. When his extension talks start will be a key Broncos storyline to monitor during the upcoming offseason.

Poll: How Will Giants Proceed With HC Brian Daboll, GM Joe Schoen?

December 25th, 2024 at 10:20pm CST by Adam La Rose

The 100th season in Giants history will not produce a playoff appearance, something which owner John Mara did not require for the 2024 campaign to be considered a success. Still, this year has not gone according to plan on a number of fronts.

New York sits at 2-13 on the year, and losing the final two games of the season would ensure the No. 1 pick in April’s draft. While that would represent a notable consolation for this year’s struggles, major organizational decisions will need to be made before that point. The job security of head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen will be a talking point once the campaign comes to an end.

Hired together after their shared time with the Bills, the pair has been in place since 2022. That year produced a surprise playoff run, with Daboll earning Coach of the Year honors as a result. Since then, the rebuilding effort Schoen has overseen has not produced the desired results. The Giants have gone 8-25 since the start of last season, including a record of 0-8 at home this year. A loss on Sunday would ensure a winless campaign at MetLife Stadium and add further to the speculation regarding changes taking place on the sidelines and/or in the front office.

The Daboll-Schoen regime inherited quarterback Daniel Jones, but by virtue of committing to a four-year, $160MM extension last offseason the former No. 6 selection was confirmed as having a central role in the team’s short-term future. That decision was matched by using the franchise tag on running back Saquon Barkley, who departed this past March and has put himself in contention to break the single-season rushing record during his debut Eagles campaign. Jones and the Giants parted ways earlier this year, although by that point it was clear a reset at the QB spot would be required this spring.

Indications with respect to whether or not Daboll or Schoen would be let go have been tracked throughout the campaign. Mara offered a vote of confidence for both in October, but the Giants have not won since that point. Given the owner’s track record of changing coaches quickly, many have pointed to Daboll being on thin ice. Indeed, a report from last month stated the 49-year-old’s future in New York would be tied to the team’s performance the rest of the way. Amidst a slew of injuries and several underwhelming individual performances, the Giants have not come close to engineering a turnaround in the second half of the season.

While that would suggest Daboll could be among the coaches let go on ‘Black Monday’ following the end of the regular season, that report was quickly followed by one suggesting he could join Schoen in being relatively safe. The latter has seen several players find success upon leaving New York; Barkley has drawn considerable attention for obvious reasons but safety Xavier McKinney is another free agent departure who has delivered a strong showing in 2024. The Packers safety leads the NFL with seven interceptions, more than double the Giants’ collective total in 2024.

Schoen’s draft classes have drawn criticism at times as well, with Evan Neal serving as a key example in that respect. The seventh overall pick in 2022 has fallen well short of expectations during his career, and finding a replacement at right tackle (along with improvements along the interior of the offensive line) will be key objectives moving forward. The secondary is also a sore spot in spite of recent draft investments, and making moves there will be important for improvement to take place.

Presuming the Giants wind up with the top pick in the draft, though, the defining storyline of the coming offseason will be the team’s addition of a new franchise passer. If Daboll and/or Schoen are kept in place, they will be counted on to oversee the quarterback’s development and by doing so move past the Jones era. If Mara prefers to clean house at a critical organizational juncture, though, new faces could be added to take the franchise in a different direction. Of course, the possibility remains that one member of the pair (likely Schoen) receives a longer leash and is kept in the fold for at least one more season.

How do you see things playing out this offseason? Will the Giants elect to keep both Daboll and Schoen around, move on from both or keep only one in place for 2025? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.

Poll: Where Will Aaron Rodgers Play In 2025?

December 23rd, 2024 at 10:20pm CST by Sam Robinson

Aaron Rodgers‘ latest Pat McAfee Show appearance again made reference to (via ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini) potentially being a first-time free agent soon. Although the Jets should not be ruled out from reversing course on their rumored QB divorce and keeping their aging quarterback, a look for 2025 landing spots remains relevant.

The 20th-year veteran has stopped short of confirming he will be back next season, but as of mid-November he was pointing to a return for 2025. If nothing else, Rodgers may want a chance to provide a better conclusion to his decorated career compared to what is transpiring this season in New York. The Jets are 4-11, which will clinch their worst record since Zach Wilson‘s rookie year, and are expected to draft a quarterback.

It is worth wondering if the Jets could keep Rodgers as a bridge, considering he has expressed interest in staying. The 41-year-old passer said he would prefer to stay rather than relocate again, but reports in the wake of Joe Douglas‘ ouster place the team as being ready to move on. Rodgers and Woody Johnson also appeared to disagree on Nathaniel Hackett‘s employment this offseason, and the owner — perhaps on multiple occasions — called for the QB’s benching this year. Rodgers has played better as of late, however, and could be an option for a Jets team that is unlikely to earn a top-two pick. Barring a trade-up, the Jets would not then be in position for one of the top two arms in the 2025 class (Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders) and may then need to expand their options.

Ranking 23rd in QBR and averaging a career-low 6.6 yards per attempt, Rodgers should not be closely associated with his prime years or even the late-prime seasons that brought him his third and fourth MVPs. But he is certainly good enough to hold a starting job somewhere. A team would need to provide an opportunity, and Rodgers carries some baggage at this stage of his career some franchises may be fine avoiding. Though, it is not hard to see a few teams showing a degree of interest.

Sam Darnold will be the 2025 free agent class’ prize, should the Vikings not use their franchise tag on the surging starter. Russell Wilson wants to re-sign with the Steelers, who are expected to pursue a second contract with their starter. But his value is somewhat murky right now. Minnesota’s second-best QB, Daniel Jones, will be a lower-cost option. Justin Fields would be as well, with Jameis Winston an unstable bridge for teams who do not project to land one of the top rookie arms. A host of backup-level options will once again hit the market as well.

The Jets still have Tyrod Taylor under contract; if Rodgers is not brought back, he would be a midlevel stopgap option. But a new GM-HC duo is coming — one that will bring a new offense for Taylor to learn, if he in fact is retained. It would cost more for the Jets to drop Rodgers in 2026 — due to a roster bonus that reminds of his 2023 Packers situation — than it would in 2025, when he would bring a $49MM dead money hit. Like the Broncos and Wilson, the Jets cannot designated Rodgers a post-June 1 cut — which would split the dead money between 2025 and ’26 — until March 12, the start of the 2025 league year. If the team’s new regime would be onboard with absorbing all of that $49MM in 2025, it could cut the cord in mid-February like the Raiders did with Derek Carr in 2023.

Expanding the board for Rodgers beyond New York, the Titans seem like a place to start. A Trade Rumors Front Office piece explored a Rodgers-Tennessee fit last month, and Will Levis has since been benched. The Titans added a host of pieces on offense (Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Lloyd Cushenberry, JC Latham) to improve Levis’ situation but did not see the additions matter much in that regard. With Brian Callahan and Ran Carthon not steering their ship into calm waters post-Mike Vrabel, a semi-desperate solution exists in Rodgers. Beyond Tennessee, some creativity may be necessary.

The Colts reside in a similar situation, having seen 2023 draftee Anthony Richardson display one of the modern NFL’s worst completion percentages. He is still carrying a 47.7% completion rate; only six passers have previously posted sub-50% accuracy numbers (minimum 200 attempts) in a season this century. The Colts have obviously tried the veteran route extensively post-Andrew Luck, with the Matt Ryan experiment potentially making Rodgers a non-starter. But Indianapolis probably will need to look into competition for Richardson in 2025. Its quartet of Day 2 wideout investments, all under contract next year, would benefit from a significant accuracy upgrade.

The Browns are believed to be interested in Darnold; would a regime that has moved onto hotter seats, then, be interested in Rodgers? The latter would not cost as much as Darnold soon will, though a QB contract beyond the rookie-scale level will be an issue for a Browns team stuck with Deshaun Watson. The team is planning to retain the wildly underwhelming starter in 2025, as it would cost $172MM to drop him. Even with Andrew Berry‘s penchant for void years that reduce cap charges in exchange for future hikes, a midlevel starter contract would be a complicated effort. But a veteran-laden Browns roster that observed Joe Flacco elevate Kevin Stefanski‘s offense would at least align with Rodgers’ shortened timeline.

If the Steelers cannot reach a deal with Wilson, their roster would also line up with a potential Rodgers one-off. On the surface, Rodgers’ antics probably do not mesh with this organization — as interesting as a fit with Mike Tomlin would be — though the team may still need to see how Wilson performs over the next few weeks to determine whether a substantial raise is called for. How different Wilson and Rodgers’ price points will be also checks in as an issue for what still seems like a poor fit in Pittsburgh, even though the team — which famously does not negotiate in-season — has both Wilson and Justin Fields due for free agency.

The Raiders dropped several spots in the draft order thanks to their Week 16 win over the Jaguars, and Rodgers did have them on his destination list during his 2021 offseason standoff with the Packers. That said, the Raiders are squarely in rebuilding mode and do not seem a likely landing spot. With the Giants now moving toward the No. 1 overall pick, neither do they.

We fired up a similar poll two years ago, as rumors circulated about Tom Brady being likely to leave the Buccaneers after 2022. The legendary passer was connected to teams but did not end up playing again, retiring for a second time. Rodgers, who classified himself as “90% retired” two offseasons ago before joining the Jets will have retirement squarely in play once again. Will the future first-ballot Hall of Famer take that route or end up with one of these teams? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Earn NFC’s No. 1 Seed?

December 15th, 2024 at 10:09pm CST by Adam La Rose

The final four weeks of the season will see a number of playoff spots decided, along with the top seed in each conference. While the Chiefs have a degree of breathing space for the No. 1 slot in the AFC, the lone first-round bye in the NFC could come down to the last slate of regular season contests.

The Lions have stood atop the conference for much of the season, something which comes as no surprise give the expectations the team faced entering the campaign. Given the strength of the NFC North, however, Detroit has not been able to generate a cushion in the standings. An 11-game winning streak placed the team at 12-1 on the year — prior to a Week 15 loss to the Bills — but plenty of work remains to secure the top seed.

The final stretch of the campaign will see the Lions host the Bills in a clash of the league’s two highest-scoring offenses. Detroit then has road contests against the Bears and 49ers, teams which are on track to fall short of the postseason. The regular season will conclude with the Lions and Vikings playing what could be a critical head-to-head matchup, although other results may have decided the No. 1 seed by that point.

Injuries on defense have led many to wonder if the Lions will be able to remain atop the conference but to date they have done so. Aidan Hutchinson will not be available down the stretch, but a return by the Super Bowl continues to be mentioned as a possibility. Before that hypothetical point, maintaining their run of success (which could include welcoming back other injured players) will be crucial in the Lions’ bid for the top seed.

The Eagles sat at 2-2 entering their bye week, leading to questions about their status as genuine Super Bowl contenders. The team has not lost since returning to action in Week 6, thanks in no small part to the performance of Saquon Barkley during his debut Philadelphia season. The former Giants Pro Bowler already holds the single-season franchise rushing record, and his 1,623 yards represent a career high while also leading the league. Remaining his production will be key for an offense which has not been consistent or efficient through the air for much of the campaign.

Of course, the Eagles’ strong play on the other side of the ball has played a central role in their 10-game winning streak and 12-2 record. Philadelphia leads the league in total defense and has allowed the second-fewest points per game (18), making Vic Fangio’s first season a stark contrast to where the unit sat late in the campaign in 2023. While the loss of Brandon Graham for the season represents a blow to the Eagles’ edge rush, the team could remain strong in that respect en route to (at least) the No. 1 spot in the NFC East standings.

Philadelphia’s remaining schedule includes a cross-state matchup with Pittsburgh, followed by a road matchup with the Commanders. While both of those teams figure to represent challenging opponents, the same cannot be said of the Cowboys and Giants. The Eagles will close out the season with home games against those divisional rivals, both of which are out of contention and missing several key players. A path exists for Philadelphia to make a late run past Detroit to secure the first-round bye.

If the Lions are to be unseated over the final month of the season, the Vikings could very well play a large role. The aforementioned Week 18 matchup represents Minnesota’s best opportunity to make up ground and in doing so claim the No. 1 seed or at least the top spot in the division (ensuring home-field advantage during the first two rounds of the playoffs). Over the next three weeks, the Vikings will host the Bears and Packers with a road game against the Seahawks in between.

That schedule certainly represents a challenge with respect to maintaining Minnesota’s current six-game winning streak, something which will likely be necessary if overtaking Detroit is to remain possible on the final day of the season. In any event, the 2024 campaign has exceeded expectation in the Vikings’ case, with the play of Sam Darnold being one of the league’s top storylines. The former No. 3 pick is on track to be the top quarterback in this offseason’s free agent class, and a lucrative deal from an outside suitor would come as no surprise.

Of course, Darnold’s strong performance is a testament to head coach Kevin O’Connell’s work. The latter has not discussed an extension to date, but a new deal could be coming his way in the near future, ensuring stability on the sidelines. The more immediate attention of O’Connell and his team, though, will be aimed at the pursuit of the No. 1 seed.

Of the three contenders for the NFC’s top spot, which will ultimately secure it? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.

Extension Candidate: Brock Purdy

December 6th, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Barely a month remains before the 49ers can begin extension talks with Brock Purdy, the Mr. Irrelevant find that helped bail the franchise out of the predicament the Trey Lance miss created. Purdy has lost two of his top four weapons, and he has picked up a shoulder injury. Though, San Francisco’s third-year starter has still accounted himself fairly well in this de facto platform year.

Purdy’s seventh-round contract runs through 2025, and the 49ers have the leverage of a potential 2026 franchise tag at their disposal. But the expectation has been for Purdy extension talks to begin soon. Where those go will be one of the 2025 offseason’s central storylines, as the 49ers — after Deebo Samuel‘s 2022 trade request, Nick Bosa‘s 2023 holdout and Brandon Aiyuk‘s rumor-flooded hold-in — are set to have another offseason dominated by a big-ticket contract.

The question that will define the 49ers’ offseason, as well as the organization’s longer-term outlook, centers around where these negotiations will end up. Dak Prescott used extraordinary leverage to drive the quarterback market to $60MM per year, representing a staggering increase based on where the NFL was just five years prior. It took 25 years for the QB market to balloon from $5MM AAV to $25MM AAV; it has since taken just six for it to climb from $30-$60MM per year. At some point, a team will pass on a monster QB payment. The 2024 offseason did not feature any such actions.

Despite neither Trevor Lawrence nor Jordan Love having established themselves as top-tier quarterbacks, each matched Joe Burrow‘s then-record $55MM AAV. Tua Tagovailoa‘s injury history and inconsistent first two seasons made him a curious extension candidate. Despite rumblings of the Dolphins being leery of paying the going rate, they ultimately did, authorizing a $53.1MM-per-year payday for their southpaw starter. It no longer requires sufficient credentials to earn a top-market QB contract. The leverage the position’s importance creates — amid the fear of starting over — drives these negotiations, putting Purdy in strong position.

Purdy, 25 this month, needed to beat out Nate Sudfeld for the 49ers’ third-string job during his first training camp. Lance’s subsequent ankle injury bumped him to the QB2 role, and San Francisco’s offense — to the surprise of most — did not slow down after Jimmy Garoppolo‘s foot fracture. Purdy proved competent and piloted the team to the 2022 NFC championship game. He then made it back by Week 1 after UCL rehab, during an offseason that ended with the 49ers admitting defeat on Lance, whom they traded to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick.

Purdy took significant steps last season, throwing 31 touchdown passes in 16 games and becoming the first passer to start a full season and average 9.6 yards per attempt since the 1950s. He led the NFL in QBR and passer rating. The 49ers’ four-All-Pro skill-position cadre provided a considerable boost for the formerly unappealing prospect, but Purdy finished last season by going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII. He has been at the wheel longer than Love and has offered more stability than Lawrence. That $55MM-per-year price, then, makes sense as a clear floor.

Of course, persistent Purdy skepticism has come from his place in Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme and whether he would be worth such a contract. After all, the team did find Purdy in Round 7. Wouldn’t it be within the realm of possibility for the franchise to consider cashing out via trade (at some point) and believing it could maximize another passer lacking elite skills? Then again, that is a dangerous game to play.

The 49ers being the team to strongly consider passing on authorizing such a contract should not be ruled out, seeing as Shanahan reached a Super Bowl with Garoppolo at the helm. The 49ers would also see their roster blueprint change wildly if/once they pay Purdy. How the team proceeds with its host of contract-year starters in 2025 — a group including Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga and Aaron Banks — may be an early tell on how it will proceed with Purdy, as paying the QB — even in the expected event of a backloaded structure that kept cap hits low early — would naturally lead to cost-cutting moves elsewhere on the roster.

Purdy sits seventh in QBR despite Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey missing most of the season. The Iowa State alum still ranks fourth in Y/A (8.4) and has delivered 275 rushing yards — far more than he offered in 16 games last year. He is on the cusp of receiving the biggest raise in NFL history, as the seventh-round deal averages $934K per annum. 49ers CEO Jed York pointed to the team already planning for a Purdy payday, and while rumblings about a Kirk Cousins trade serving as a potential fallback option (thus reuniting he and Shanahan, Washington’s OC at the time the veteran was drafted) have surfaced, nothing serious has come out regarding any real considerations of separating from Purdy.

With the exception of Prescott, Cousins and Lamar Jackson, high-end QB paydays in the fifth-year option era commence before or during the player’s contract year. QB tags are rare. The 49ers could keep Purdy at a $1.1MM base salary next season and prepare for a 2026 tag at roughly $45MM, but they then run the risk of the market rising down the road. It can also be argued the market might not change much in 2025, as the 2021 and ’22 draft classes have not brought extension candidates. Lawrence has already been paid, with the other four first-round QBs from 2021 not being in line for monster pacts. The 2022 early-round crop has been even worse, with Purdy the only extension candidate to come from that disappointing QB draft.

The NFL’s $50MM-per-year club expanded to nine this offseason, and Josh Allen will be a candidate to eclipse Prescott’s contract perhaps as early as 2025. The MVP frontrunner does not carry the contractual leverage Prescott did, in being tied to his $43MM-per-year accord through 2027, but the Bills will need to address this team-friendly deal at some point. Allen’s six-year deal is as close as any QB has come to accepting team-friendly terms in line with Mahomes’. The three-time Super Bowl MVP is still signed through 2031 at $45MM per, giving the Chiefs tremendous flexibility. But his peers have, as expected, still opted for shorter-term deals that would allow for more prime-years paydays.

Barring Purdy accepting Mahomes- or Allen-level terms, the 49ers will need to pay up and make sacrifices elsewhere. That would stand to impact their loaded (when healthy) roster. That will mark a significant change for the franchise, though the team already had Garoppolo on top-market (at the time) terms and still churned out winning squads. San Francisco’s Shanahan-era blueprints have come with and without a veteran-QB deal on the payroll.

Starting over at quarterback would represents a massive risk, and for a team that missed badly when trying to do so (Lance) earlier this decade, it might not be one to take. Purdy has proven effective in Shanahan’s offense, putting him on the cusp of the NFL’s latest quarterback megadeal. How it comes together will shape the market for future passers.

Given how disappointing most of the other arms from the 2021 and ’22 drafts have been, Purdy suddenly resides as the QB market’s centerpiece player for the 2025 offseason. While the 49ers are no strangers to contract drama, it currently appears more likely than not they will stay the course and not become the team that refuses to pay a passer the going rate. Purdy’s asking price topping Prescott’s may change that, but a deal between the Lawrence-Love level and where the Cowboys’ leverage-fueled QB raised the market is probably something the 49ers will need to stomach.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Russell Wilson

December 3rd, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Steelers opted for a complete overhaul of the quarterback position this offseason, signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields. Both passers are pending free agents, and it remains to be seen if each member of the pair will be retained for 2025.

In Wilson’s case, though, his time in the lineup has certainly strengthened his case for a new Pittsburgh deal. The former Seahawks Super Bowl winner endured an underwhelming two-year tenure with the Broncos, leading to his release this offseason (during which Denver took on a dead money charge of $85MM). The Steelers added him on a veteran minimum pact, positioning him to operate as a low-cost Kenny Pickett replacement.

Fields started the Steelers’ first six games while Wilson recovered from a calf injury. Once the latter was healthy, head coach Mike Tomlin made the unilateral decision to insert him into the starting lineup. Pittsburgh went 4-2 with Fields at the helm, but Wilson was seen as having a higher ceiling in the passing game in particular. That has proven to be true to date, as highlighted most recently by his 414-yard outing against the Bengals in Week 13.

Overall, Wilson has led the Steelers to a 5-1 record as a starter, posting a 10:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio along the way. His 104.3 passer rating is his highest since 2020, and maintaining his current level of play would help his value on a new Pittsburgh deal this offseason or one sending him to a new team. Retaining Wilson is a priority for Pittsburgh, but an agreement on that front will only be reached after the campaign.

In the event the 36-year-old does get the opportunity to test the market, he could face a wide range of offers. Executives who communicated with CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones were split when polled about what a Wilson offer would look like this offseason. Projections in terms of annual average value ranged from roughly $10MM on the low end to $35MM on the high end. How he and the Steelers perform over the coming weeks will obviously be key in determining Wilson’s earning potential.

The top of the QB market has seen considerable growth in recent years, and Dak Prescott‘s latest Cowboys deal made him the first $60MM-per-year player in NFL history. Eight other passers are attached to a deal averaging at least $51MM per season, while six sit between $40MM and $46.1MM. Given his age, Wilson should be expected to check in at a tier below those markers, but the likes of Geno Smith (Seahawks) and Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) have parlayed strong seasons into healthy veteran pacts in the middle class of established starters.

Mayfield played on a one-year, $4MM pact with Tampa Bay in 2023 before landing a three-year, $100MM contract this offseason. Wilson is not in an identical situation given his age and his Broncos compensation, but he too could turn an impressive showing on a new team into a medium-term commitment and a raise. With Wilson and Fields combining to account for only $4.44MM on Pittsburgh’s cap sheet this year, a notable spike in that figure should be in store if continuity is sought under center.

Sam Darnold took a one-year Vikings pact as a potential springboard to a lucrative deal elsewhere, and his success in Minnesota has him on track to be the top quarterback in the 2025 free agent market. Wilson could join him as an older option for teams not in position to add a first-round passer in the draft or those seeking a bridge starter to partner with a developmental QB. Fields could also represent an intriguing free agent candidate in the event he were to depart.

The Steelers have not managed to find a long-term Ben Roethlisberger replacement since his retirement, and Wilson will likely not serve in that capacity far beyond 2025 even if he is retained given where he is in his career. Still, he could be an intriguing free agent in the event the Steelers were to allow him to test the market.

2024 NFL Dead Money, By Team

November 27th, 2024 at 12:50pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Giants making the decision to waive Daniel Jones, rather than keep him around ahead of a potential 2025 post-June 1 cut designation, changed their dead money outlook for this year and next. Here is how their new total fits in with the rest of the teams’ numbers for dead money — cap space allocated to players no longer on the roster — entering the final third of the regular season. Numbers courtesy of OverTheCap.

Denver Broncos: $85.21MM
New York Giants: $79.57MM
Minnesota Vikings: $69.83MM
Buffalo Bills: $68.47MM
Carolina Panthers: $68.28MM
Green Bay Packers: $65.53MM
Tennessee Titans: $62.89MM
Philadelphia Eagles: $61.95MM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $60.64MM
New Orleans Saints: $59.44MM
New York Jets: $59.24MM
Los Angeles Chargers: $58.62MM
New England Patriots: $53.37MM
Miami Dolphins: $52.28MM
Seattle Seahawks: $52MM
Jacksonville Jaguars: $51.2MM
Las Vegas Raiders: $49.37MM
Washington Commanders: $42.81MM
Houston Texans: $39.28MM
Cleveland Browns: $38.79MM
Los Angeles Rams: $34.63MM
Detroit Lions: $33.71MM
Pittsburgh Steelers: $30.18MM
Chicago Bears: $29.65MM
Arizona Cardinals: $29.35MM
San Francisco 49ers: $26.91MM
Dallas Cowboys: $26.79MM
Baltimore Ravens: $21.35MM
Kansas City Chiefs: $12.65MM
Indianapolis Colts: $11.8MM
Atlanta Falcons: $11.55MM
Cincinnati Bengals: $9.11MM

The Jones release moved more than $13MM of dead cap onto the Giants’ 2024 payroll. More significantly, the Giants granting Jones an early exit — after a contract-driven benching — will prevent the team from designating him a post-June 1 cut next year. The Giants will take on $22.2MM in dead money in 2025, rather than being able to split that bill over two offseasons. The team also took on more than $10MM in dead money this year due to the 2023 Leonard Williams trade.

This year’s most egregious dead money offender has been known for months. The Broncos’ contract-driven Russell Wilson benching last year preceded a historic release, which saddled the team with more than $83MM in total dead money. A small cap credit is set to come in 2025 (via Wilson’s veteran-minimum Pittsburgh pact), but for this year, $53MM in dead cap hit Denver’s payroll as a result of the the quarterback’s release.

The Broncos more than doubled the previous single-player dead money record, which the Falcons held ($40.5MM) for trading Matt Ryan), and they will be on the hook for the final $30MM-plus in 2025. Beyond Wilson, no other ex-Bronco counts more than $7.5MM in dead money. In terms of total dead cap, however, the Broncos barely check in north of the Buccaneers and Rams’ 2023 totals. Denver is trying to follow those teams’ lead in rallying back to make the playoffs despite nearly a third of its 2024 payroll tied up in dead cap.

Twenty-two players represent dead money for the Saints, who have seen their total updated since the Marshon Lattimore trade. Rather than restructure-crazed GM Mickey Loomis using the Lattimore contract once again to create cap space next year, the Saints will take on the highest non-QB dead money hit in NFL history. Lattimore counts $14MM in that category this year before the contract shifts to a whopping $31.66MM in dead cap on New Orleans’ 2025 payroll. Considering the Saints are again in their own sector for cap trouble next year ($62MM-plus over), the Lattimore trade will create some issues as the team attempts to rebound post-Dennis Allen.

Two 2023 restructures ballooned the Vikings’ figure toward $70MM. Void years on Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter‘s deals combined for more than $43MM in dead money. Minnesota also ate nearly $7MM from the void years on Marcus Davenport‘s one-year contract, while the release of 2022 first-rounder Lewis Cine (currently on the Bills’ practice squad) accounted for more than $5MM.

Free from the Tom Brady dead money that comprised a chunk of their 2023 cap, the Bucs still have eight-figure hits from the Carlton Davis trade and Mike Evans‘ previous contract voiding not long before the sides agreed on a new deal. Elsewhere in the NFC South, three of the players given multiyear deals in 2023 — Vonn Bell, Hayden Hurst, Bradley Bozeman — being moved off the roster in GM Dan Morgan‘s first offseason represent nearly half of Carolina’s dead cap.

Updated 2025 NFL Draft Order

November 25th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Week 12 slate of games is in the books. For many teams, attention is increasingly turning toward the offseason with a playoff berth no longer in reach.

Plenty of time remains for the draft order to change over the coming months, and it will be interesting to see which teams wind up in position to add at the quarterback spot in particular. The crop of prospects for 2025 is not held in high regard after Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, meaning the demand for potential franchise passers is set to outweigh demand at the top of the board. Of course, players like Sanders’ Colorado teammate Travis Hunter will be among the ones worth watching closely as well.

The Jets have moved on from head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas, inviting questions about a reset under center as well. Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but it remains to be seen how his relationship with the organization will take shape down the stretch and if a new regime will prefer to move on at the position. The Giants, meanwhile, confirmed they will be in the market for a new signal-caller with Daniel Jones no longer in the fold.

Teams such as the Raiders have long been mentioned as a team to watch regarding a rookie QB pursuit. Jayden Daniels was a target for head coach Antonio Pierce last spring, and it would come as no surprise if Vegas were to make a push for a long-term starting option this time around. Other franchises not on track to qualify for the playoffs figure to give the Raiders plenty of competition in that department, though.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is an updated look at the current draft order:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-9
New York Giants: 2-9
Las Vegas Raiders: 2-9
New England Patriots: 3-9
Carolina Panthers: 3-8
Tennessee Titans: 3-8
New York Jets: 3-8
Cleveland Browns: 3-8
New Orleans Saints: 4-7
Cincinnati Bengals: 4-7
Dallas Cowboys: 4-7
Chicago Bears: 4-7
Indianapolis Colts: 5-7
Miami Dolphins: 5-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-6
Los Angeles Rams: 5-6
San Francisco 49ers: 5-6
Arizona Cardinals: 6-5
Atlanta Falcons: 6-5
Seattle Seahawks: 6-5
Washington Commanders: 7-5
Houston Texans: 7-5
Denver Broncos: 7-5
Los Angeles Chargers: 7-4
Baltimore Ravens: 8-4
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-3
Green Bay Packers: 8-3
Minnesota Vikings: 9-2
Philadelphia Eagles: 9-2
Buffalo Bills: 9-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-1
Detroit Lions: 10-1

Poll: Who Will Secure AFC’s Third Wild-Card Spot?

November 22nd, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Late-season collapses certainly occur, with injuries obviously playing key roles in contenders’ blueprints. As it stands now, however, the AFC playoff picture is top-heavy. It is quite possible the stretch run will feature division leaders jockeying for seeding and two wild-card teams hovering over the race for the bottom bracket slot.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Chargers a 94.7% chance to make the playoffs, with the AFC North holding a strong likelihood of producing a wild-card squad as well. Both the Steelers and Ravens’ chances sit north of 95%. Although the volume of sub-.500 AFC teams could drain drama from this year’s fight to wear white in Round 1, the conference does have a handful of teams on the fringe who appear poised for a battle to claim the No. 7 seed.

Six AFC teams have eight or nine losses entering Week 12. While the 2008 Chargers started 5-8 and erased a three-game division deficit with three to play, the odds are stacked against the conference’s bottom tier (Patriots, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders). This leaves four teams in between.

The Broncos have not made a postseason appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Considering the Russell Wilson release brought a two-offseason dead money number unlike anything the NFL has seen, Denver snapping that drought this year was not expected. Wilson counts for $53MM on Denver’s 2024 payroll, with the club taking on the larger portion of the dead money this year ($30MM-plus is on the books for next year, as a small cap credit from the QB’s Steelers pact awaits). But Sean Payton‘s team is 6-5 and holds a, per FPI, 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Although the Broncos kept costs low and also moved on from Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy, they resisted Courtland Sutton trade offers — including a third-rounder from the 49ers in August — and assembled an interesting roster around No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix. The Oregon alum’s progress defines Denver’s season, as the team appears close to identifying a surefire long-term quarterback. The franchise has not seen a QB start more than four seasons since John Elway, amplifying the interest in Nix’s sudden entrance into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but Vance Joseph‘s defense has proven better than expected.

Extending Patrick Surtain in September and paying Jonathon Cooper just before trading Baron Browning, Denver sits third in scoring defense and third in yardage. The team leads the NFL with 39 sacks. This has given Nix important support during his maiden NFL voyage.

Defense has conversely burned the 4-7 Bengals, who are squandering MVP-caliber work from Joe Burrow. Back from a season-ending wrist injury, Burrow has thrown an NFL-most 27 touchdown passes (compared to four interceptions) and has done so despite franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins missing five games. The Bengals are not expected to pay Higgins, with a 2025 tag-and-trade perhaps all that is left on the contract front between the parties after no substantial talks have taken place since early 2023, but Ja’Marr Chase‘s extension price — a matter tabled to 2025 — will rise coming out of this season.

Chase’s 1,056 yards pace the NFL by more than 100. A defense that had been solid during the team’s 2021 and ’22 seasons has fallen off. Cincinnati augmented its defense by adding Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone while reacquiring Vonn Bell, but Lou Anarumo‘s unit ranks 28th. FPI gives the Bengals a 14.8% chance to make the playoffs. While this is almost definitely the highest-ceiling team left on the AFC’s fringe, a team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations in the expected Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio’s final act together runs the risk of missing the postseason entirely.

Sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins carry a 13.6% qualification chance, per FPI. Mike McDaniel‘s team is here largely due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s concussion-driven IR stay; the Dolphins went 1-3 without their recently extended starter. Tagovailoa’s absence reduced an offense that had led the NFL in yardage last season to one of the league’s worst.

Even as Tagovailoa has returned, neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle has taken off. The Dolphins paid both this offseason, reworking Hill’s contract and extending Waddle in a deal that delivered the younger WR a better guarantee than Hill received via his 2022 extension. Through 10 games, Waddle is at 404 yards. Hill, who topped 1,700 in each of his two full Dolphins slates, has accumulated just 523.

As Miami’s elite wideout tandem will need to heat up soon for the team to have a chance at a third straight playoff berth — something the club has not accomplished since a five-year run from 1997-2001 — its defense is again without Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury, while Chubb has not recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season on New Year’s Eve. No Dolphin has more than four sacks or eight QB hits, with 38-year-old Calais Campbell — whom the Dolphins nearly traded back to the Ravens at the deadline — proving valuable in a four-sack start in his Miami return.

The Colts are 5-6, and FPI gives them the second-best odds (34.2%) of this bunch. Quarterback play, of course, has defined Indianapolis’ season. The team’s about-face with Anthony Richardson reminds came after a historically early benching involving a top-five pick, as the 2023 fourth overall choice had started only 10 games when benched.

Still, Richardson’s accuracy problems threaten to derail the Colts, who had gone to Joe Flacco in an attempt to better position themselves for a playoff push. After Flacco lost the ensuing two starts, Richardson is back. While the raw prospect looked better in his return start, he still carries a 48.5% completion rate. Only six QBs who have attempted at least 200 passes have finished south of 50% in a season this century.

GM Chris Ballard mostly just paid to keep his core together this offseason, though waiver claim Samuel Womack has helped a depleted boundary cornerback group. The Colts rank both 19th in scoring and points allowed, and while other components on this roster obviously matter, Richardson’s development still overshadows their season’s second half. That represents perhaps the biggest X-factor among this middle-class AFC glut.

Assuming the Chargers stay afloat and the Steelers and Ravens do not collapse, who do you think will claim the conference’s final spot in the seven-team field? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.

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