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Poll: Which Sub-.500 Team Has Best Chance To Make Playoffs?

By Sam Robinson | at October 20, 2022 2:32 pm

Particularly in the NFC, the early part of this season has brought considerable parity. Many would-be contenders have stumbled out of the blocks. Two 2-4 NFC squads — the Cardinals and Saints — will match up tonight in a game that will put the loser in an early-season bind.

A 2-4 start does not bring the historic uphill battle 0-3 does. Since the playoffs expanded to six teams per conference in 1990, four squads — including the 49ers last season and the 2019 Titans — have rebounded from that record to reach the conference championship round. The 1993 Oilers crafted a more remarkable pivot, rallying to earn a bye. No 2-4 team has ever reached a Super Bowl, however.

The Broncos are probably the most disappointing of the 2-4 lot. Their Russell Wilson–Nathaniel Hackett marriage has produced a spree of listless outings, leading to social media backlash and big-picture questions. Denver’s offense ranks 32nd in scoring and has particularly struggled coming out of halftime. The Broncos’ offense has accounted for three third-quarter points all season, turning up the heat on Hackett, who joined Kevin O’Connell and Dan Quinn as Broncos HC finalists.

This staggering unproductivity has marginalized a dominant defense, one that has seen 2021 draftees Patrick Surtain II and Baron Browning — after an offseason position change — take second-year leaps. Denver has the 18th-toughest schedule remaining, per Tankathon, though the team has both Chiefs contests still to come. As injuries mount for the once-promising team, its road to the playoffs appears difficult.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh join Denver at 2-4 but are just one game back of the AFC North lead. The Browns’ controversial Deshaun Watson acquisition led most to temper expectations for this season, with Watson banned 11 games. Cleveland also enjoyed a favorable early-season schedule, but the Jacoby Brissett-led team is 1-3 in games in which it has been favored. The Browns (10th-easiest remaining schedule, record-wise) brought back Jadeveon Clowney this offseason and have Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on top-market contracts. Both Garrett and Ward have missed time, and Joe Woods‘ defense ranks 30th. Although the Browns have hoarded cap space — likely because of Watson’s contract — their quarterback-in-waiting’s cap number spikes from $9.4MM to $54.9MM from 2022 to ’23, placing a bit more emphasis on this season’s result.

The Steelers (11th-easiest remaining schedule) upset the Buccaneers despite most of their secondary joining T.J. Watt in missing Week 6, but the team is making a transition at quarterback. The Steelers’ Mitch Trubisky acquisition, his Week 6 rally notwithstanding, did plenty to create the early-season hole. Kenny Pickett figures to make the bulk of the starts the rest of the way for a team that has not finished under .500 since 2003.

Initial Jaguars optimism has faded somewhat, after a three-game skid. Trevor Lawrence has climbed to 13th in QBR, from 28th as a rookie, and Travis Etienne‘s health is starting to pay dividends. The front-seven investments the Jags made this year have led to improved talent defensively; Mike Caldwell‘s unit ranks ninth in points allowed. Jacksonville (13th-toughest remaining schedule) also plays in a division featuring winning teams with major questions, though its perennial struggles against presumptive non-threat Houston indicates Doug Pederson‘s team may be at least a year away from contending.

Aside from the Broncos, the Raiders (minus-5 in point differential) are probably the most interesting team here. Las Vegas’ new regime paid up for Davante Adams and extended prior-regime investments Derek Carr, Darren Waller and Maxx Crosby. Those moves have thus far led to close losses. The Raiders (ninth-easiest remaining schedule) are 1-4, with their Patrick Graham-coordinated defense ranking 28th. The AFC West does not appear as menacing as initially projected, and 1-4 is not the death sentence 0-3 is historically. But this Raiders retooling effort will need multiple offseasons, the next one including (presumably) a first-round pick.

Rallies against the Falcons and Raiders, respectively, lifted the Saints and Cardinals to 2-4. Both teams are also just one game out in their parity-fueled divisions.

Arizona’s three-extension offseason (Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury, Steve Keim) has not instilled much confidence this will be the year the Murray-led operation becomes a serious threat. Arizona (15th-toughest remaining schedule) ranks 22nd both offensively and defensively, and its DeAndre Hopkins-less receiving corps led to numerous pass-catching combinations. The team has traded for both Marquise Brown and Robbie Anderson, but the Hopkins sidekicks will not share the field together for a while due to Brown’s injury. Kingsbury is already considering ceding play-calling duties.

The Saints (seventh-easiest remaining schedule) have again run into receiver staffing issues. Jarvis Landry has missed most of the season, and Michael Thomas‘ foot injury will lead to Thursday being the former All-Pro’s 29th missed game since 2020. Jameis Winston‘s back fractures have turned Andy Dalton into New Orleans’ regular starter. While the Dalton investment (one year, $3MM) has proven important, Dennis Allen‘s defense — a top-five unit in each of the past two seasons — ranks 29th.

Do any of the other sub-.500 teams — most of which residing in the rebuilding sect — have a chance to rebound this season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s collection of struggling teams in the comments section.