Michael Thomas has reworked his contract, setting up a significant decision for the Saints heading into the 2023 league year. According to ESPN’s Field Yates, the wide receiver and the Saints agreed to a restructured deal that provides the organization with some additional flexibility to move off the contract this upcoming offseason.
Specifically, Thomas reduced his 2023 base salary from $15.5MM to $1.165MM. In exchange, the wideout now has a $31.755MM 2024 roster bonus that’s due on the third day of the 2023 league year (March 17, 2023). For participating, the Saints gave Thomas a $900K signing bonus.
As Yates explains, this reworking assures that the Saints’ decision on the receiver’s future “will be done expediently.” If that $32MM roster bonus becomes guaranteed, the front office would be left with a prohibitive amount of dead cap. If the team decides to cut the receiver (which would likely be designated as a post-June 1 cut), the team would have an extra $14MM in cap flexibility thanks to today’s maneuverings. The organization would still be left with more than $25MM in dead cap, but those extra savings would still be significant for a team that’s projected to be over the cap.
If Thomas is cut, he’d immediately become a free agent. Considering the March 17 deadline, this would allow the wideout to negotiate with teams before standard free agent receivers. The Saints could realistically keep Thomas and still realize today’s savings, but such a route would set the team up for a hefty financial commitment during the 2024 campaign.
In simpler terms, it’s the general consensus that today’s contract restructuring will ultimately lead to the Saints parting ways with the wide receiver this offseason. Thomas hasn’t been productive and/or healthy in three seasons, so it’s unlikely that the Saints would make a financial commitment for a fourth questionable season, much less a fifth season. Plus, thanks to the development of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the team isn’t as reliant on Thomas’s upside, especially with a roster that seems to be focused towards the future.
The receiver has a prolific 2019 campaign that saw him collect 149 receptions for 1,725 receiving yards, leading to Offensive Player of the Years honors. Since then, Thomas has been limited to 10 games across three seasons, contributing only 56 receptions for 609 yards. Entering what would be his age-30 season, Thomas can’t expect a hefty pay day when he inevitably reaches free agency, but there should still be plenty of contenders lining up for his services.
As the NFL determines how it will proceed with the postponed Bills-Bengals game, Week 18 is on as scheduled. The No. 1 overall pick remains in doubt, and seven teams enter the final week either 6-10 or 7-9. Several games will impact how the top 10 shakes out.
Having lost nine straight, the Bears (3-13) are a half-game behind the Texans (2-13-1) for the No. 1 overall pick. Houston last held that draft slot in 2014, while Chicago has not picked first since 1947. The Texans are also playing a Colts team they tied in Week 1; Indianapolis enters Week 18 on a six-game skid. Conversely, the Bears face a Vikings squad that still has a path to the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
Week 17 also brought clarity on the NFC South. Although the Buccaneers have disappointed, their comeback win over the Panthers secured the franchise’s third straight playoff berth. That will mean Tampa Bay’s pick will check in no higher than 18th overall, while the Carolina and New Orleans slots could land in the top 10. The loser of Saturday’s Jaguars-Titans game would also see their draft slot rise several positions. Four of the five traded picks remain in the top 12, with the Seahawks’ spot (via the Broncos) still slotting highest — behind only the Texans and Bears’ positions.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 18:
While the prospect of Sean Payton wanting to return to New Orleans would put team brass in a difficult spot, it is not completely known if that is the case. And the Saints’ current coach has backers in high places.
Dennis Allen is likely to stay on for a second season as Saints HC, according to NOLA.com’s Jeff Duncan, who adds ownership and management are still behind Payton’s longtime DC. Allen replaced Payton in February, and while the Saints have taken a step back, Duncan does not anticipate the team making its coach and one-and-done.
The NFL has certainly condensed its timetables for coaches in this era, but the Saints have not made any coach even a two-and-done since the 1970s. Under late owner Tom Benson, Mike Ditka and Jim Haslett received at least three seasons. The latter coached for six years, despite the Saints qualifying for just one playoff field — in Haslett’s first season — during that time. Payton changed the game for the Saints and stayed 16 seasons, leaving surprisingly in late January. The current FOX analyst has been researching potential opportunities and may well come back to New Orleans at some point, but a reunion appears to be on hold.
The Saints hold Payton’s rights and would be in position to collect a nice compensation package for the Super Bowl-winning HC, in the event he ends up coaching another team. Payton has been connected to working with ex-Saints assistant Vic Fangio somewhere. That partnership coming to pass in New Orleans could leave Allen, who served under Payton during two Saints stints before succeeding him as HC, out in the cold. But Payton will have other options. Though, the top two teams he has been linked to — the Cowboys and Chargers — do not look likely to fire their current coaches. Both teams have clinched playoff spots.
The Saints did finish under .500 five times under Payton, so Allen’s debut (6-9 presently) is not completely out of step. But New Orleans never lost 10 games with Payton. Drew Brees being under center for 15 of those seasons did help protect against that outcome, however. Allen has not been as fortunate, going from Jameis Winston to Andy Dalton this season. The Saints have improved from 28th to 18th in total offense from last season, which featured a worse QB situation. And they rank ninth in total defense, with their win over the Browns keeping them technically alive for postseason play. FiveThirtyEight gives New Orleans only a 3% chance to make the playoffs, though Duncan adds management is happy with the fight the team has shown down the stretch.
While the Cardinals have also been loosely linked to Payton, Duncan notes this pairing should not be expected. The team still has a decision to make on Kliff Kingsbury, who joined Steve Keim in signing an extension this offseason. But with the Cards falling to 4-11 in Kingsbury’s fourth season, the longtime college coach is squarely on the hot seat. With Payton likely to have options upon returning, taking over a team coming off a dysfunctional 2022 would be a tougher sell compared to other opportunities. Kyler Murray‘s ACL tear certainly does not help matters.
December 29th, 2022 at 10:03pm CST by Sam Robinson
Wednesday’s unusual development — Derek Carrleaving the Raiders following the news of his benching — makes it fairly clear the sides are expecting to part ways soon. This opens the door for the first full-fledged search for a new Raiders starter since they selected Carr in Round 2 in 2014, and it moves a proven quarterback to the trade block.
The Raiders backed away from trading Carr in the past, and the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo saga this year shows how presuming a separation can be premature. But it certainly looks like the Raiders plan to move Carr. There will be interested teams, but the acquiring franchise would need to pick up a $40.4MM guarantee and prove appealing enough Carr would waive his no-trade clause. Where will the 31-year-old passer end up?
A few teams will be searching for a quarterback after acquiring one last year, but some parties will be those that sat out the 2022 carousel. The Jets figure to be a Carr suitor. They have seen their 2021 investment — No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson — bomb during his two-season run as a primary starter. The defense the Jets rebuilt this offseason no longer gives Wilson a lengthy NFL onramp, and the BYU product may not be ready even with the benefit of a long runway. With Wilson perhaps on the way out midway through his rookie deal, the Jets adding Carr’s through-2025 contract would make sense.
We broached this subject upon Wilson’s initial benching last month, and it would put the Jets — who employ ex-49ers OC Mike LaFleur as their play-caller — to an interesting decision. Going after Carr in February would cut off a LaFleur-Garoppolo reunion in March. While Garoppolo’s checkered health history may now place him behind Carr in teams’ hierarchies, the former has extensive familiarity with LaFleur.
Carr, 31, becoming available also complicates the Giants’ path. They have seen a solid season from Daniel Jones, with the Dave Gettleman-era investment working with a bottom-tier receiving corps to lead the team to the playoff precipice. With a more proven option available, would the Joe Schoen–Brian Daboll duo preemptively nix Jones negotiations by trading for Carr? If Jones leads the Giants to the playoffs, the prospect of seeing him with better receivers in 2023 — though, at a much higher price — would seemingly be interesting, and he is six years younger than Carr.
Tom Brady–Raiders rumors may be relentless over the next several weeks, provided the legendary passer does not actually retire this time around. The current expectation, barring retirement, is for Brady to leave the Buccaneers to finish his career. This would open a spot for a veteran quarterback to pair with a Super Bowl nucleus, albeit one that has, particularly on offense, underwhelmed to an alarming degree this season. The Bucs were in the quarterback market during Brady’s first retirement, but timing also may rule them out of the Carr sweepstakes. A Carr move in February — a month before Brady’s free agency — would lead arguably the greatest quarterback ever out of town. That would be quite the strange ending to this memorable Bucs chapter.
If Carson Wentz‘s comeback does not produce a Commanders playoff berth, he could well be on the move for a third straight offseason. Washington can cut bait free of charge. This franchise has searched for QB continuity ever since the Kirk Cousins franchise tag years, having entered six straight seasons with a new starter. Carr, who has missed two regular-season games due to injury in his career, would provide that.
He would also cost more than Wentz, who remains attached to a $32MM-per-year Eagles extension he inked in 2019. Wentz is tied to just $20MM and $21MM base salaries over the next two years. Carr’s deal includes future bases of $32.9MM (guaranteed in a trade), $41.9MM ($7.5MM of which would be guaranteed) and $41.2MM. The Commanders employ Jack Del Rio, who coached Carr for three seasons, as defensive coordinator.
The Saints traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Eagles and ditched their original 2022 QB plan early this season. Benching Jameis Winston for Andy Dalton has not moved the needle in terms of wins, though Pro Football Focus surprisingly rates Dalton as a top-five QB this season. Dalton’s deal expires at season’s end. New Orleans, per usual, resides 32nd in terms of projected 2023 cap space. The Saints sit $53.9MM over the projected 2023 salary ceiling, per OverTheCap. While Mickey Loomis has gotten out of worse predicaments, adding Carr’s contract would be a new challenge for the seasoned GM. The Saints employ Carr’s first NFL HC (Dennis Allen), though he was only with Oakland for a few Carr games before being fired.
Carolina has attempted bigger swings at QB over the past two offseasons, offering a first-round pick and change for Matthew Stafford and offering three and change for Deshaun Watson. The Panthers are preparing to chase a QB again. Is re-signing Sam Darnold a viable option, or will David Tepper try and make a notable upgrade. Carr might not qualify as a huge splash, but he would likely provide an upgrade for a team that has intriguing pieces at several positions.
Neither of the teams that made the Matt Ryan trade have surefire answers for 2023, though Carr might not be a true fit for either the Colts or Falcons. Indianapolis is barreling toward securing its first top-five pick since the Peyton Manning injury year produced Andrew Luck. After trying veterans repeatedly, Indianapolis could have a chance to land an impact prospect. Desmond Ridder being an unchallenged starter would be a risk for the Falcons next year, but they still are on the rebuilding track. That said, Arthur Smith is going into Year 3. Carr pairing with Kyle Pitts and Drake London would be interesting.
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this developing situation in the comments section.
With a third coach firing going down this week, Sean Payton smoke keeps emerging. The Super Bowl-winning coach has given a few interviews indicating a desire to coach again, and it could happen as soon as 2023.
Payton will be coveted by every team with a coaching vacancy, but an unexpected reunion is generating buzz. The Saints potentially bringing back Payton is “the worst-kept secret” in NFL circles, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk notes. Payton is indeed open to a New Orleans return, according to Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com.
The Saints were forced to conduct a coaching search weeks after other HC-seeking teams went through theirs, after Payton stepped down from his 16-year gig. They ended up promoting Dennis Allen, giving the ex-Raiders HC a second chance. Although the Saints are still in contention for the NFC South title, they are 6-9 and could hit double-digit losses for the first time since 2005 — the franchise’s final pre-Payton year. GM Mickey Loomis and owner Gayle Benson are strong supporters of Allen, per Duncan, who notes Payton’s longtime DC is well-liked throughout the organization.
It would make for a historically unusual move for the Saints and Payton to reunite after one year apart, but Loomis remains close with his former coworker. And the Saints hold Payton’s rights through 2024. It would be interesting to see if another team was willing to make a substantial trade offer for Payton, Florio adds that if Payton coaches anywhere next season, it will be back in New Orleans. A source that spoke with Duncan offers the same prediction.
Payton has already begun work on assembling a staff and has studied rosters and cap situations around the league, per Duncan, so it should not be assumed the Saints — who have featured a rather notable roster issue since Drew Brees‘ retirement — have a runaway lead here. But them being back in the mix sets the table for what would be one of the most fascinating transactions in modern coaching history.
Payton, 58, has been connected to a few teams, but avenues toward the positions that cropped up this offseason are closing. The Cowboys and Chargers are heading to the playoffs, and while neither Mike McCarthy nor Brandon Staley are locks to return, both are likely to stay on in their present roles. The Dolphins, as you may have heard, caused quite a stir by showing interest in Payton — to the point they were docked first- and third-round picks for tampering with he and Tom Brady. Although Mike McDaniel‘s team is fading, it would surprise if Stephen Ross made him a one-and-done given the progress Tua Tagovailoa has made this season.
The Broncos and Panthers are both believed to be interested in Payton, but Florio adds neither team appeals to the current FOX analyst. (The Saints trading Payton to the Panthers is a near-impossible scenario to envision as well.) Payton returning to New Orleans would seemingly wall off a quest to become the first head coach to win Super Bowls with two different teams. Several HCs — Don Shula, Dick Vermeil, Bill Parcells, Dan Reeves, Mike Holmgren, John Fox and Andy Reid — have coached two franchises to Super Bowls, but none has negotiated the hurdle of winning it with both.
Returning to New Orleans would also mean a renewed search to find a long-term Brees successor, and the recent report of Payton eyeingVic Fangio to be his defensive coordinator upon returning further complicates Allen’s status. Allen enjoyed two tours under Payton with the Saints, being the team’s secondary coach from 2008-10 and its DC from 2015-21. Another report indicated Allen was likely safe from being a one-and-done, but Payton being back in play could certainly change that.
At the end of an unremarkable season, it appears the Saints will be a central figure in the 2023 offseason. They may have the chance to rehire the best head coach in team history or trade him for a package that could include a first-round pick.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:57pm CST by Adam La Rose
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, much is still to be decided both in terms of playoff positioning and the order of the upcoming draft. Five teams are still eligible to land the top pick.
The Texans remain in pole position to hold the No. 1 spot, but their win over the Titans (coupled with the Bears’ losing streak extending to eight games) leaves Chicago just a half-game away. The fact that the Bears would likely select a defensive player rather than a quarterback with the top pick adds considerable intrigue to the potential implications of them ending up with that slot.
With the Browns continuing to struggle even with Deshaun Watson back from suspension, there is a distinct possibility that four first-rounders which changed hands (including Cleveland’s top 2023 pick, part of the package they sent to Houston for Watson) land in the top 10. Another premium selection would obviously soften the blow of losing out on the No. 1 spot from the Texans’ perspective, should that take place.
The final Wild Card spot in each conference is still being contested by several teams, resulting in a logjam of 7-8 squads in the middle of the order. Several head-to-head matchups will be played out between those clubs, which could lead to plenty of change in their positioning over the next two weeks. The race for both the AFC and NFC South titles will also have a significant impact on the final order, given the average (at best) record each division’s winner will have at the end of the regular season.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 17:
Houston Texans: 2-12-1
Chicago Bears: 3-12
Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
Arizona Cardinals: 4-11
Indianapolis Colts: 4-10-1
Atlanta Falcons: 5-10
Detroit Lions (via Rams)
Carolina Panthers: 6-9
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-9
Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
Houston Texans (via Browns)
Seattle Seahawks: 7-8
Tennessee Titans: 7-8
New England Patriots: 7-8
New York Jets: 7-8
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-8
Green Bay Packers: 7-8
Detroit Lions: 7-8
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-8
Washington Commanders: 7-7-1
New York Giants: 8-6-1
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-6
Baltimore Ravens: 10-5
Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
Dallas Cowboys: 11-4
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-3
Minnesota Vikings: 12-3
Buffalo Bills: 12-3
Philadelphia Eagles: 13-2
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Paytontampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice
Specifically, Thomas reduced his 2023 base salary from $15.5MM to $1.165MM. In exchange, the wideout now has a $31.755MM 2024 roster bonus that’s due on the third day of the 2023 league year (March 17, 2023). For participating, the Saints gave Thomas a $900K signing bonus.
