December 31st, 2020 at 11:17am CST by Zachary Links
The Ravens and cornerback Jimmy Smith have agreed to an extension, agent Drew Rosenhaus tells NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport (on Twitter). Once finalized, it’ll be a one-year add-on that, technically, could be worth up to $5MM. In reality, Smith will receive $500K to sign and $2MM in base comp (Twitter link via ESPN’s Adam Schefter). The rest of the $5MM figure comes from $2.5MM in not likely to be earned (NLTBE) incentives.
Smith was originally set for free agency, though it would have been a shock to see him land elsewhere. He’s spent his entire career in Baltimore since entering the league as a first-round pick in 2011. Last year, he briefly dipped his toe in the free agent waters only to return on a one-year deal worth $3.5MM, plus $2.5MM in incentives.
Smith made the fewest starts of his career (five) in 2019, thanks in large part to a knee injury that sidelined him for much of the season. This year, he’s managed to appear in 11 of 15 possible games. Smith has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, so he may or may not see time against the Bengals on Sunday. In any event, the Ravens have multiple paths to the playoffs and a 90% probability of clinching, per FiveThirtyEight.
Smith has been dogged by injuries, but he’s been a steady hand when healthy. Now, the versatile vet will remain in Baltimore through his age-33 season.
Despite the NFL expanding its playoff bracket to 14 teams, one 10-win AFC squad’s season will end Sunday. The historic depth on display in this year’s AFC may well exclude an 11-win team from the playoffs for just the third time since the 1970 merger.
The conference’s Nos. 4-7 spots are not yet determined; the Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns and Colts sit at 10-5. Only the 1985 Broncos and 2008 Patriots — who were left out of five- and six-team AFC brackets, respectively — missed the post-merger playoffs at 11-5. But with none of the 10-win quintet playing one another Sunday, the Colts could join that list.
With the Steelers indicating they will restBen Roethlisberger, the Browns would appear to have a strong chance to snap the NFL’s longest playoff drought (18 years). Although they lost 38-6 in the teams’ October meeting in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have not played nearly as well since and have lost key defenders Devin Bush and Bud Dupree. The Browns beat the Mason Rudolph-quarterbacked Steelers 21-7 in Cleveland last year, though the game result became obviously obscured. Football Outsiders gives the Browns a 44% chance to hold at the No. 6 seed and a 20% chance to qualify as the seventh seed.
Sean McDermott has not indicated if he will rest starters against the Dolphins. Doing so would certainly hurt the Colts’ qualification chances, with Indianapolis needing at least one of the other four 10-win teams to lose. The Bills can only drop to the No. 3 spot with a loss and a Steelers win, and given Mike Tomlin‘s decision to rest Roethlisberger, it would not be surprising to see McDermott give Josh Allen a rest or an abbreviated assignment Sunday.
The Dolphins have made the playoffs once in the previous 11 seasons and have benched Tua Tagovailoa twice since naming him their starter. Tagovailoa remains Miami’s QB1, however. Football Outsiders gives Miami a 28% chance to hold at the No. 5 seed and a 29% chance to earn the No. 7 seed in this year’s expanded bracket. While the Bengals knocked the Ravens out of the 2017 playoffs in Week 17, this version is less talented and down its starting quarterback (Joe Burrow) and top running back (Joe Mixon). Of the five 10-win AFCers, Baltimore’s path may be the least daunting.
The Colts have seen their Philip Rivers signing produce mixed results, and it is not certain the sides will reunite in 2021. Although Rivers has helped the Colts return to the playoff precipice, the 39-year-old quarterback ranks 18th in QBR. While that figure is north of Rivers and Jacoby Brissett‘s 2019 placements, the Colts have also endured defeats to the Jaguars — their Sunday opponent — and lost by at least two scores to the Browns, Ravens and Titans.
Tennessee also lost to Indianapolis in a blowout and brings a less reliable defense (29th overall) into Week 17. Houston also nearly pulled a Week 6 upset in this matchup, losing in overtime. However, the Texans are without some key players — including Will Fuller and Bradley Roby — going into the rematch. Football Outsiders views a Titans loss in Houston and a Colts win as the most likely way Indy can return to the playoffs, slotting this scenario at 33%.
So which of this quintet will wrap its season early? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts on this Week 17 gridlock in the comments section.
A Jayron Kearse Baltimore visit is expected to produce a deal. The Ravens are on track to add the former Vikings and Lions safety to their practice squad, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com tweets.
Kearse visited the Ravens on Wednesday, trekking to Maryland shortly after an abbreviated Detroit stay. The Lions waived Kearse for violating team rules, according to the Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett. Said violations included leaving the Lions’ team hotel without permission and being late for bed check (Twitter link).
This has been a bumpy year for Kearse, who spent four seasons in Minnesota. An October DUI arrest led to a three-game suspension to start this season. The Lions quickly put him to work, using him as a starter in seven games this season. The former seventh-round pick made 59 tackles and forced a fumble with Detroit. He worked mostly as a depth piece with the Vikings, starting five games in four seasons.
The post-Earl Thomas Ravens have used Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott as their primary safety starters this season. Kearse would qualify as depth ahead of a potential postseason run.
December 29th, 2020 at 3:02pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg
The Ravens dealt with a brutal COVID-19 outbreak in the middle of their season, and the league has determined they were partially at fault. The NFL has slapped Baltimore with a $250K fine for protocol violations, as Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk writes, although they were not docked a draft pick like the Saints were. New Orleans lost a seventh-rounder, Las Vegas forfeited a sixth-rounder, and the Titans were fined $350K, so this is actually on the lighter side of COVID punishments. In a separate piece, Florio writes that strength and conditioning coach Steve Saunders was the previously unnamed coach who was suspended for his role in the outbreak. Saunders is now back in the building with his job back after serving a suspension of about a month.
December 28th, 2020 at 2:27pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg
Most of the attention this cycle has understandably focused on exciting offensive minds, so the DCs out there are flying a bit more under the radar. That doesn’t mean you won’t see one land a job. Ravens defensive coordinator Don ‘Wink’ Martindale is “considered to be one of the top candidates this time around,” Ian Rapoport of NFL Network tweets. Martindale is in his third season as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, and he previously won Super Bowl XLVII with the team as their linebackers coach. The Ravens once again have one of the league’s best defenses, so the buzz isn’t too shocking. Interestingly, Rapoport notes that his potential staff targets include Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliot, and former NFL head coaches Marvin Lewis and Lovie Smith. Lewis is generating head coaching interest himself, so he might not be available.
