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PFR Originals News & Rumors

PFR Originals: 5/18/20 – 5/24/20

May 24th, 2020 at 1:54pm CST by Zachary Links

In case you missed it, here’s a look at some of our faves from the past week:

200+ NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned

May 23rd, 2020 at 11:40am CST by Zachary Links

We’re one month removed from the start of the 2020 NFL Draft and more than 200 of the league’s draft picks have yet to sign their contracts, as PFR’s NFL Draft tracker shows. To be exact, there are 207 stragglers and 48 signed, out of 255 picks. 

Thanks to the modern NFL’s draft slotting system, rookie deals are mostly a formality. Still, that’s an atypical amount of unsigned players for the ~30 day mark. In 2016, for example, there were only about 50 unsigned rookies by 5/24.

Obviously, the pandemic has complicated matters and changed the normal course of operation. As team facilities begin to open up and more states lift restrictions, we’ll see more draft picks sign their deals. It could be a while before we see some of this year’s top draft picks put pen to paper, however. No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow recently raised some eyebrows when he indicated that it could take months for his deal to be finalized.

The uncertainty surrounding the 2020 season has left teams concerned about their finances. In Burrow’s case, he’s set to collect a $24MM bonus from the Bengals. With cash flow concerns, teams are skittish about taking the plunge before necessary.

This year’s rookie class could drag longer than most, but, ultimately it should be business as usual – especially since first-round picks are not expected to put up a fight over offsets.

Extension Candidate: Rams CB Jalen Ramsey

May 20th, 2020 at 2:57pm CST by Zachary Links

Just before last year’s trade deadline, the Rams swung a blockbuster deal to land Jalen Ramsey. Now, they have some more negotiating to do as Ramsey enters the final year of his contract.

[RELATED: Will The Cardinals Trade Reddick?]

Ramsey, 26 in October, is set to earn $13.7MM in 2020, a figure dictated by his fifth-year option. The expected market will dictate his rate on this go ’round, which means that he’s probably due for a raise. Before Ramsey arrived in Los Angeles, he had his sights set on a deal that would reset the market. Despite an iffy year, Ramsey still figures to play in that ballpark.

Between his three games with the Jaguars and nine games with the Rams, Ramsey recorded just 50 tackles and one interception. The former No. 5 overall pick did not play up to his usual standards, but the fact remains that Ramsey is one of the league’s most talented cornerbacks and any team would be happy to back up a Brinks truck for him.

Currently, Darius Slay stands as the league’s highest-paid cornerback on a per-year basis with an average annual salary of $16.7MM. Meanwhile, Byron Jones of the Dolphins leads corners in full guarantees ($46MM) and effective guarantees ($54.4MM). It’s safe to say that Ramsey’s reps will have all of those numbers handy when it comes time to talk.

The Rams, meanwhile, would be willing to toss figures around in that ballpark, though their lack of cap room makes it a bit tricky. It would be tough for the Rams to tamp down Ramsey’s 2020 hit while also giving him $17MM/year to top Slay. Meanwhile, there isn’t a lot of fat left to trim. They could carve out another $3.6MM for Ramsey by releasing Troy Hill, but that would also leave ~$900K in dead money and little room for extra improvements. A restructuring of Aaron Donald‘s deal could give them more dollars to work with – similar to what Jared Goff did recently – but that would also create a snowball effect on future cap years.

Ramsey promised the team that he wouldn’t hold out in 2020 if he didn’t have a new deal in place, though he won’t necessarily cooperate with the Rams if he’s franchise tagged for 2021. Without that safety net in place, the Rams will have to find middle ground with their star cornerback sooner rather than later.

Longest-Tenured GMs In The NFL

May 20th, 2020 at 2:07pm CST by Zachary Links

When we ran down the longest-tenured head coaches in the NFL, we found that less than half of the league’s current coaches have been in their positions for more than three years. That’s not quite the case with general managers, but there have been plenty of changes in recent years.

A handful of general managers have gotten to take their coats off and stay for a long while. Among coaches, Bill Belichick had joined his team prior to 2003. Here, you’ll see that five GMs have been with their teams since before ’03 (Belichick, of course, is also on this list). Two of those five – Jerry Jones and Mike Brown – are outliers, since they’re team owners and serve as de facto GMs. But the Patriots, Steelers, and Saints, have all had the same general managers making their roster decisions for well over a decade.

Here’s the complete list of the NFL’s longest-tenured GMs, along with the date they took over the job:

  1. Jerry Jones (Dallas Cowboys): April 18, 1989[1]
  2. Mike Brown (Cincinnati Bengals): August 5, 1991[2]
  3. Bill Belichick (New England Patriots): January 27, 2000[3]
  4. Kevin Colbert (Pittsburgh Steelers): February 18, 2000[4]
  5. Mickey Loomis (New Orleans Saints): May 14, 2002
  6. Rick Spielman (Minnesota Vikings): May 30, 2006[5]
  7. Thomas Dimitroff (Atlanta Falcons): January 13, 2008
  8. John Schneider (Seattle Seahawks): January 19, 2010[6]
  9. Howie Roseman (Philadelphia Eagles): January 29, 2010
  10. John Elway (Denver Broncos): January 5, 2011[7]
  11. Les Snead (St. Louis Rams): February 10, 2012
  12. David Caldwell (Jacksonville Jaguars): January 8, 2013
  13. Steve Keim (Arizona Cardinals): January 8, 2013
  14. Tom Telesco (San Diego Chargers): January 9, 2013
  15. Jason Licht (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): January 21, 2014
  16. Ryan Pace (Chicago Bears): January 8, 2015
  17. Chris Grier (Miami Dolphins): January 4, 2016
  18. Bob Quinn (Detroit Lions): January 8, 2016
  19. Jon Robinson (Tennessee Titans): January 14, 2016
  20. John Lynch (San Francisco 49ers): January 29, 2017
  21. Chris Ballard (Indianapolis Colts): January 30, 2017
  22. Brandon Beane (Buffalo Bills): May 9, 2017
  23. Brett Veach (Kansas City Chiefs): July 11, 2017
  24. Marty Hurney (Carolina Panthers): July 19, 2017
  25. Dave Gettleman (New York Giants): December 28, 2017
  26. Brian Gutekunst (Green Bay Packers): January 7, 2018
  27. Mike Mayock (Oakland Raiders): December 31, 2018
  28. Joe Douglas (New York Jets): June 7, 2019
  29. Eric DeCosta (Baltimore Ravens): January 7, 2019[8]
  30. Ron Rivera (Washington Redskins): January 1, 2020[9]
  31. Andrew Berry (Cleveland Browns): January 27, 2020
  32. Bill O’Brien (Houston Texans): January 28, 2020

Footnotes:

  1. Jones has been the Cowboys’ de facto general manager since former GM Tex Schramm resigned in April 1989.
  2. Brown has been the Bengals’ de facto GM since taking over as the team’s owner in August 1991.
  3. Belichick has been the Patriots’ de facto GM since shortly after being hired as the team’s head coach in January 2000.
  4. Colbert was initially hired as the team’s director of football operations and received the newly-created general manager title in 2011.
  5. Spielman was initially hired as the team’s VP of player personnel and received the GM title in 2012.
  6. While Schneider holds the title of GM, head coach Pete Carroll has the final say on roster moves for the Seahawks.
  7. Elway was initially hired as the team’s executive VP of football operations and received the GM title in 2014.
  8. In 2018, the Ravens announced that DeCosta would replace Ozzie Newsome as GM for Ozzie Newsome after the conclusion of the season. The Ravens’ ’18 season ended with their Wild Card loss to the Chargers on 1/6/19.
  9. Technically, the Redskins do not have a GM, as of this writing. Rivera is, effectively, their GM, working in tandem with Vice President of Player Personnel Kyle Smith. Smith may receive the GM title in the near future.

Trade Candidate: Cardinals LB Haason Reddick

May 20th, 2020 at 1:23pm CST by Zachary Links

In early May, the Cardinals declined the fifth-year option on Haason Reddick‘s contract. The linebacker isn’t on their books for 2021, he’s not a big part of their plans for 2020, and he’s almost certainly on the trade block. 

A few years ago, scouts saw Reddick as a versatile prospect with the ability to play multiple spots on the front seven. But, so far, he hasn’t been consistent as an edge rusher or an inside linebacker. Last fall, they gave him a shot to start at ILB. After five weeks, they turned the job over to Joe Walker. Walker left this offseason, but the Cardinals drafted Isaiah Simmons (another versatile, jack-of-all-trades type) and added De’Vondre Campbell and Devon Kennard to the mix, leaving Reddick without a clear role.

After three years, three head coaches, and 7.5 cumulative sacks, Reddick is left with zero job security in Arizona. Last year, he finished out with just six tackles for loss and one sack and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ lowest ranked linebacker out of 63 qualified players. His stock has cooled considerably, but other teams should be willing to take a small gamble on him and his remaining $2.3MM in salary.

The Panthers would be one logical destination for him. New Carolina head coach Matt Rhule coached Reddick at Temple and saw him at his absolute best. Reddick worked his way up across four years on campus and closed out his collegiate career in 2016 with 9.5 sacks as a senior. Thanks in part to Reddick’s performance, Rhule scored new job and bigger bucks with Baylor. The Giants would also make some sense – they’ve yet to re-sign edge rusher Markus Golden and GM Dave Gettleman was supposedly high on Reddick in his draft year.

Reddick has been here before. In 2018, he was rumored to be on the block before the trade deadline, though GM Steve Keim denied shopping him. This time around, we’d wager that Keim is willing to listen.

Top Remaining Free Agents

May 20th, 2020 at 9:34am CST by Rory Parks

While most of the top free agents in this year’s cycle have long since signed with new clubs, there are plenty of potential difference-makers still available. Those players remain on the market for various reasons — price tag, injury concerns, etc. — but they all could be a key factor in the fortunes of whatever team they ultimately join. Let’s take a look at the best of who’s still out there:

  1. Jadeveon Clowney: If you think you’ve been reading a lot about Clowney over the past couple of months, you’re right. That’s what happens when a former No. 1 overall pick and a young dynamic talent is still up for grabs this late in the offseason. Clowney’s high asking price, originally said to be $20MM per year, certainly scared some teams off, as did his recent core muscle surgery. Some will also point to his relatively low sack totals as evidence that he is not the dynamic pass rushing force that he believes himself to be. But he undeniably has the chops to be a game-changer against the run and pass, and he is content to wait for the right situation to come along. Once teams have the opportunity to evaluate him themselves, his market should heat up rapidly.
  2. Cam Newton: Here’s another former No. 1 overall pick that we have written a great deal about recently. Like Clowney, the 2015 MVP may be signed by now if interested teams could have their own doctors examine him, and Newton is willing to be patient and wait for that to happen if waiting will allow him to secure a starting gig somewhere. But at this point, it looks like only an injury or major underpeformance will open the door for a QB1 role in 2020, so he may have to settle for a top backup job for now and hit the free agent market again in 2021. He is reportedly warming to that idea.
  3. Everson Griffen: Like Clowney, Griffen is a talented pass rusher, but unlike Clowney, Griffen has multiple double-digit sack campaigns under his belt. The 32-year-old posted eight QB takedowns in 2019, and it is a little surprising to see him unsigned this late in the process. A reunion with the Vikings may be in the cards, and the Seahawks are the only other club to be connected to Griffen at this point.
  4. Jason Peters: The only reason Peters isn’t signed yet is because of his age (38). He turned in a typically terrific season in 2019, and he has been connected to a number of clubs over the past couple of months. The problem is, many of those teams have filled their needs at the offensive tackle spots, so even though Peters has said that he is willing to play on the left or the right side, his options are now more limited. The Chargers could still be in play, and another year with the Eagles may also be a reality.
  5. Logan Ryan: Unlike several of the players ahead of him on this list, Ryan doesn’t have any notable health concerns, but his asking price — he’s seeking around $10MM per year — could be depressing his market. He turned in a productive 2019 season with the Titans and has the versatility to move around the defensive backfield, which has apparently led to multi-year offers. Given the need for quality corners in today’s game, Ryan will likely land a lucrative deal soon, it just may not be as lucrative as he wants. The Jets and Dolphins are involved in the bidding.
  6. Markus Golden: Golden enjoyed what appeared to be a breakout season with the Cardinals in 2016, posting 12.5 sacks in just his second year in the league. But injuries limited the edge rusher over the 2017-18 seasons, and he had to settle for a one-year prove-it deal with the Giants in 2019. He perhaps thought that he proved it, recording 10 sacks for Big Blue, but those 10 sacks came from just 26 total pressures, which is probably an unsustainable conversion rate. So far, only the Giants — who put the rarely-used UFA tender on Golden — have been publicly connected to him.
  7. Devonta Freeman: We haven’t heard a peep about the two-time Pro Bowl running back since the Falcons released him in March. The fact that Atlanta replaced him with Todd Gurley and his frightening injury concerns isn’t a good sign, and Freeman’s 3.6 YPC average in 2019 certainly isn’t helping matters either. Freeman’s own injury problems limited him to two games in 2018, so he is now two years removed from his last effective season. It’s nonetheless a bit of a surprise that there have been no rumors of interest in his services.
  8. Delanie Walker: The best tight end left on the market, Walker has battled injuries over the past two seasons and will turn 36 in August, so it makes sense that we haven’t heard too much about him lately. But while he may not be a TE1 anymore, he could still be a useful weapon in the passing game, and he also has a history of being a strong blocker. The Colts, Packers, and Redskins were said to be interested in him in March, and those teams continue to look like good fits even after the draft. The Ravens, who rely heavily on TEs and who traded Hayden Hurst to the Falcons this offseason, also make some sense.
  9. Eric Reid: The 28-year-old safety turned in what appeared to be a strong year in 2019, starting all 16 games for the Panthers and posting a career-best 130 tackles. The problem is, he may have had so many tackle opportunities because he allowed over 77% of throws in his vicinity to be completed. Still, he is an experienced and generally solid back-end defender, and the Texans — who employ his brother, Justin Reid — seem like a logical fit.
  10. Darqueze Dennard: Dennard, a former first-round pick of the Bengals, thought he had a deal with the Jaguars in March. But Jacksonville backed out of the deal, and while there was no word on why that happened, it could be that health concerns made the Jags skittish. Dennard missed the first few weeks of the 2019 season due to a knee procedure, but he did play every game from Week 10 forward and graded out well in terms of Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics. He has been Cincinnati’s primary slot corner over the past several seasons, but there has been no reported interest in him since the failed Jaguars pact.

This Date In Transactions History: NFL Adopts “Annual Draft Of College Players”

May 19th, 2020 at 11:57am CST by Ben Levine

On this day in 1935, the NFL made a significant decision that didn’t only impact football, but the entire sports world. As Hall of Famer (and NFL.com analyst) Gil Brandt points out on Twitter, the league “adopted an annual draft of college players” on May 19th, 1935.

There were several events that led up to this decision. For starters, collegiate players were initially allowed to sign with any NFL team, leading to a free-for-all that’s not too different than modern free agency. Specifically, Eagles co-owner Bert Bell found that these prospects were simply opting for the most lucrative deal, and if money was equal, the player would land with the more accomplished, competitive franchise. As a result, teams like the Bears and Packers generally recruited the top collegiate players.

There was also the matter of Stan Kostka, who had a standout campaign for the Minnesota Gophers during the 1934 season. The running back ended up waiting for the highest-possible offer, and after a nine-month “holdout” (which also included an unsuccessful campaign to be the mayor of Inver Grove Heights, Minnesota), Kostka ended up landing a league-leading $5,000 deal (we swear, that’s not a typo) with the Brooklyn Dodgers.

This move infuriated Bell, who believed the NFL would ultimately fail if teams were allowed to simply buy the best prospects. So, on May 18th, 1935, the Eagles co-owner proposed a rookie draft. Bell touted that a draft would help increase parity, and he believed this would have a vicarious impact on the league’s financials. The next day, the league unanimously voted to adopt a draft starting with the 1936 season.

Of course, NFL teams didn’t have the scouting resources that they do now; in fact, NFL teams didn’t even have scouting departments. Organizations were required to randomly submit the names of college seniors, and these players would then be inserted into the draft pool. If a team selected a player, they were allowed to exclusively negotiate with the prospect. If a deal couldn’t be reached, the organization had the ability to trade the rookie. If neither a contract nor a trade materialized, the NFL was allowed to step in and arbitrate a settlement between the two sides. This ended up being relevant for the 1936 Draft, as only 24 of the 81 selections proceeded to play in the NFL that season.

In a not-so-ironic twist, the Eagles (and Bell, the architect of the draft) landed the first-overall selection of the inaugural event. The organization selected halfback Jay Berwanger, but after unsuccessfully negotiating with the prospect, Philadelphia traded his rights to the Bears. Berwanger didn’t sign with Chicago, either, and the first pick of the first draft ultimately never played a snap in the NFL.

Of course, who knows if Berwanger would have followed this same path had he been allowed to sign with any NFL team. There were surely some pundits who pointed to Berwanger and criticized the draft for alienating prospects. However, without the decision made 85 years ago today, the NFL (and sports as a whole) would look a whole lot different.

PFR Originals: 5/10/20 – 5/17/20

May 17th, 2020 at 5:24pm CST by Zachary Links

In case you missed it, here’s some of our faves from the past week:

This Date In Transactions History: Steelers Sign JuJu Smith-Schuster

May 17th, 2020 at 3:43pm CST by Zachary Links

Three years ago today, JuJu Smith-Schuster officially joined the Steelers by signing his rookie deal. The USC product had considerable buzz heading into the 2017 NFL Draft, but the Steelers managed to snag him in the second round, at No. 62 overall. All in all, the Steelers secured four years of his services for just $4.2MM, including a $1.2MM signing bonus.

[RELATED: Steelers Deny James Harrison’s Allegations]

Their investment paid dividends immediately. As a rookie, Smith-Schuster caught 58 passes for 917 yards and seven touchdowns in just 14 games. In his last regular season game as an NFL frosh, he took a 96-yard kickoff all the way to the house and became the youngest player in NFL history to record more than 1,o00 all-purpose yards in a season. He celebrated his 21st birthday in November, so, yes, Smith-Schuster could drink to that.

In 2018, Smith-Schuster took things to a whole ‘nother level, recording 111 catches for 1,426 yards and seven scores en route to his first ever Pro Bowl performance. With Le’Veon Bell staying home, Smith-Schuster was the talk of the town and the focal point of the Steelers’ offense, which didn’t exactly thrill longtime star Antonio Brown.

When Brown was shipped to the Raiders before the start of the ’19 season, Smith-Schuster became the Steelers’ unquestioned offensive superstar. Unfortunately, the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for much of the year and Smith-Schuster’s year was marred by a knee injury, plus a concussion suffered in their now infamous Week 11 game against the Browns. It was a year that everyone in Pittsburgh would rather not think about.

What’s next for Smith-Schuster is anyone’s guess. He’s now set to enter the final year of that rookie pact with a modest cap number of $1.335MM. Last year, we expected the Steelers to be gearing up for a massive contract extension that would put him at or near the top of the market. Right now, Smith-Schuster’s best bet would probably be to wait things out so that he can restore his value. The Steelers might not be in a huge rush either – they’ll want to see how Smith-Schuster does before making a monster commitment and, even if he reprises his ’18 season, they’ll have the franchise tag at their disposal.

Trade Candidate(s): Buccaneers’ O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate

May 17th, 2020 at 10:28am CST by Zachary Links

To say that the Buccaneers are stacked at tight end would be a gross understatement. Even before the Bucs reunited Tom Brady with longtime teammate and bro Rob Gronkowski, they had the formidable 1-2 combo of O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Weeks after the draft, the Bucs still have that ludicrously talented TE trio in place. Logically, at least one of them probably has to go…and it obviously won’t be Gronk. 

The Buccaneers listened on trade offers for Brate and Howard towards the end of last month, but they didn’t get any offers to their liking. Publicly, the Bucs said they were okay with having all three TEs on the roster. Then, before the early May deadline, they exercised Howard’s fifth-year option for 2021. This doesn’t automatically mean that Brate is the odd man out, or that they’ll commit a total of ~$20MM to the position. Howard’s option – guaranteed for injury only – doesn’t hamper the Bucs’ ability to trade him. Also, this surplus of TEs would be opulent, even by Brady’s standards.

Howard, ostensibly, holds more trade value than Brate. The Alabama product hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing, but he’s flashed serious ability and uncommon athleticism for a 6’6″ receiver. The Bills saw that first-hand last year, as Howard went off for six catches, 98 yards, and two scores in Buffalo. And, roughly one year earlier against the Eagles, he got nearly as many yards, just with better efficiency – three catches for 96 yards, mostly thanks to a 75-yard connection with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Teams aren’t sleeping on Brate, either. It’s true that he’ll turn 29 in July (Howard won’t be 26 until November), but he’s a proven playmaker and blocker. Between 2016 and 2017, he averaged 52 catches for 625 yards and seven TDs. After that, the Bucs rewarded him with a six-year, $41MM deal, including $18MM guaranteed. He’s been slowed by a surgically-repaired hip, but he’s more than a year removed from the operating table. It also helps that the Bucs restructured his deal in January. The exact terms of the restructure aren’t clear, but he’s probably on the books for less than the $4.5MM in guaranteed dollars he was slated for.

Howard wouldn’t be especially pricey for other teams, either – his rookie deal calls for a 2020 cap hit of just $3.5MM. The Bucs, meanwhile, would carry a $1.5MM charge for trading him.

The Bucs didn’t find any worthwhile deals for them in April, but interest should pick up between now and September. Even after drafting Cincinnati’s Josiah Deguara in the third round, the Packers could use a high-end TE to pair with Marcedes Lewis. The Bengals may also want to give the Bucs a call as they look to surround Joe Burrow with extra artillery. The list goes on. Depending on the asking price, the Bucs could have a market of 20+ teams for either Howard or Brate.

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