2016 July - Pro Football Rumors

Month: July 2016

Impact Rookies: New York Jets

July 11th, 2016 at 11:00am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the New York Jets’ draft class:

It has been a strange off-season for the Jets, as they seem to be taking a disregard to their recent past, holding the contract line firmly on 2015 starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and one of the best defensive linemen in the game in Muhammad Wilkerson. They failed to impress with their “temporary” solution to the Fitzpatrick stand-off by using their second-round draft pick to snatch Penn State erratic signal-caller, Christian Hackenberg.

Even if Fitzpatrick had signed, the Jets were going to look at addressing their future at quarterback anyway, as their starter in 2015 has had a journeyman’s like career to date. Still, they fail to impress Jets fans with the addition of Hackenberg, if it means that Fitzpatrick will turn into a training camp stalemate. They can’t be serious about turning the reins over to Geno Smith, could they?

Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has been talking up Smith, citing his maturity, but his obvious lack of leadership skills (see last season’s locker room debacle) and marginal performances to date makes Jets faithful hope that Gailey can create magic in the huddle this season. One option not talked about often is the development of 2015 third round pick, Bryce Petty. Still, like Hackenberg, he is still unproven at the professional level, leaving the Jets to ponder if they want to risk a season as a playoff observer or come to some kind of solution with the Fitzpatrick situation.

While the Jets did not address their quarterback situation in the way that many fans would have liked, they did pick up some interesting talents at other positions in this year’s draft.

First Round – Darron Lee, LB (Ohio State, No. 20 overall)

It is not etched in stone where Lee will line up for the Jets, but hailed by The NFL Draft Report the “best defensive playmaker in the 2016 draft,” the Jets are certain to find a role quickly for their first round pick. For now, he’s listed behind Erin Henderson at right inside linebacker. Beyond that, veteran and inside starter David Harris might be looking for employment elsewhere in 2017, if Lee progresses as quickly as expected.

Henderson moves into the lineup, at least temporarily, after the Jets let Demario Davis leave in free agency despite finishing second on the team with 90 tackles last year. Still, it will not be long before he cedes playing time to Lee. Another player greatly affected by Lee’s arrival is San Francisco cast-off, Bruce Carter, who was brought in to play the nickel package. With Lee’s cornerback-like speed, Carter will have to sit while Lee performs in that alignment.

Some draft analysts stated that Lee was a “work in progress” and “did not excite” in 2015 like he did in 2014 during the Buckeyes’ national championship march. Unknown to many scouts, at the time, but Lee was playing with a lower leg injury during the first half of his sophomore campaign. With several Buckeyes suspended earlier in the year, the strong-side linebacker felt that even on one leg, he needed to be out on the field.

Lee recovered just in time – for the late season tough part of the schedule. He recorded at least seven tackles with one stop behind the line of scrimmage and one quarterback pressure in each of his final four appearances. While he delivered 66 tackles (36 solos) for his final season at Ohio State, it is how he compiled those statistics that were even more impressive.

On 53 plays he made vs. the running game, Lee limited his opponents to an average gain of a minuscule 0.68 yards per attempt. The longest gain vs. the linebacker was a 9-yard scamper. He delivered eleven crunching third-down stops and another on a fourth-down play vs. those ball carriers, posting fourteen of those tackles inside the red zone, including four on goal-line stands. In addition to taking down thirteen runners for losses, ten more were tackled at the line of scrimmage for no gain. He also made five touchdown-saving tackles after runners broke free from other Ohio State defenders in 2015.

Third Round – Jordan Jenkins, OLB (Georgia, No. 83 overall)

The Jets parted ways with Calvin Pace and in their revised 3-4 alignment, they currently have 2014 seventh round pick Trevor Reilly stationed at left outside linebacker. That is, until Jenkins reports to camp and shows that he is NFL-ready. For Jenkins, this marked the tenth player from his university to be drafted by the New York Jets since they first selected Phil Sullivan in 1972. The last Georgia player drafted by the Jets before Jenkins was Jamie Henderson in the 2001 draft. The Bulldogs have sent 29 linebackers to the NFL, with Jenkins being the fifth taken in the third round. From that group, twenty-two of those draftees went on to suit up in the professional ranks.

Jenkins makes some very big hits on the move and while he might not have the bulk to hold his ground vs. the larger blockers, he is superb in working on stunts and getting through the gaps. His edge rush ability allows him to reduce the pocket and he has shown the acceleration needed to come off the edge and get to the quarterback. He has good burst in his pass rush and can generate consistent pressure on the pocket. In a scheme that will allow him to stunt and play uncontested off the edge, some team could find a difference maker here.

Despite playing part of his senior season nursing a groin injury, Jenkins established himself as a force vs. the run. He moved into fourth place on the school career-record list with forty tackles behind the line of scrimmage, joining fellow Georgia linebackers David Pollack (58.5; 2001-04), Quentin Moses (44.5; 2003-06) and Jarvis Jones (44.0; 2011-12) as the only players in Bulldog annals to register at least forty tackles-for- loss. Ironically, that quartet all performed at the “Jack” position.

In the Georgia scheme, the “Jack” is a hybrid – part defensive end and part rush linebacker. The “Jack” is usually asked to serve as the team’s primary pass rush specialist, but he is also assigned additional duties in passing situations. The reason the staff preferred to use Jenkins at that position was his keen understanding of the defense. At close to 260 pounds, he had enough bulk, combined with functional strength, to play with his hand down at the line of scrimmage.

With his lateral agility and change of direction skills, he easily played a bit off the line to generate an explosive burst coming off the edge, where he recorded nineteen quarterback sacks and a very impressive 82 pressures through 52 contests. Jenkins was often leading the charge in run support, evident by his forty tackles behind the line of scrimmage as a Bulldog. He showed the ability to also handle strong-side and weak-side linebacker duties – either lining up over the tight end to cover in the short area, or taking on the lead blocker or off-centered fullback from the “will” position.

Fifth Round – Brandon Shell, OT (South Carolina, No. 158 overall)

The Jets hope that the 6:05, 324-pound left tackle can quickly transition back to the right side, where he played in 2014, despite performing with a shoulder injury that required surgery, keeping him out of 2015 offseason camps. He comes into the league having started his last 47 appearances, including playing on the left side last year. He posted 92 knockdowns and ten touchdown-resulting blocks, making his great-uncle, Hall of Famer Art Shell, proud of the family bloodlines.

Shell is not ready to challenge for a starting job, but he could be thrown to the wolves, thanks to the Jets’ lack of depth at the tackle positions. Long-time starting left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson is sitting at home feeding the kids while enjoying retirement. The Jets replaced the veteran with Denver’s Ryan Clady on the left side, but he’s been a medical risk the last several years. Their right tackle, Breno Giacomini, was the biggest liability on the front wall last year, but with salaries of $5.125MM the next two years, the team will take a cap hit if they cut him loose before the season opener. If Clady fails to stay healthy, the Jets will be on the books for a salary guarantee of only $1.5MM.

The Jets had made a valiant effort to trade up when Mississippi’s Laremy Tunsil began his draft-day slide, but could not find a willing trade partner before division rivals, Miami, stepped in to end Tunsil’s most trying day. While right guard Brian Winters has collegiate experience at tackle, he’s also fighting to even remain on the roster this year. The rest of the Jets’ backups are unknown types like Jesse Davis, Ben Ijalana, and Brent Qvale, making Shell’s path to an NFL job all the more easier.

For a player his size, Shell has decent quickness, but he needs to show better agility, balance, flexibility and change of direction skills. He has the frame and hand punch to win stationary battles, making him a better fit working in combination with other blockers on the right side, rather than be placed on an island and be challenged by the speedy edge rushers on the left side. He shows good weight distribution on the move and his trap blocking could see him earn a few reps inside as a guard while developing pro tackle skills.

Shell allowed just 1.5 sacks last year and knows how to use his broad shoulders and body lean to stall the pass rush. He has the arm length to make reach blocks, but he does get a bit lazy when blocking in-line, as his feet fail to show urgency when he has to move laterally. His inability to bend at the knees will always be an issue, if he has to take on speedy edge rushers, but he has that wide base, big body and jolting hand punch to easily beat out the motley crew of back-ups the Jets have assembled for their front wall.

Jalin Marshall, WR/KR (Ohio State, Undrafted Rookie Free Agent)

If the Jets decide to keep five receivers, I’d expect Gang Green to have Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Devin Smith (if healthy) and Quincy Enunwa in the top four spots. That leaves seventh-round pick, Charone Peake, Patriots castoff Kenbrell Thompkins, Jeremy Ross, Robbie Anderson, Kyle Williams, and Chandler Worthy to battle for the final opening. While Marshall is still a neophyte as a receiver, he will greatly impact a return game, as the Jets ranked 15th in the NFL in punt returns (8.6 average) and 26th in kickoff returns (20.8 average) last season.

You see it every year in training camp – teams filled with nondescript youngsters that were bypassed in the draft, trying to catch even the slightest glimpse from a position coach during practices. They often share a locker stall, or try to find a few inches on the floor to store their gear safely, hoping that what they show during the summer weeks would earn them their own locker with a name tag come September. When it comes to filling out a 53-man roster, most teams look for their rookies to have some ability to play in a variety of roles. For a skill position player, you look for someone who can not only perform at his assigned position, but to also be capable of filling a few spots for the special team units. For the “bigger guys,” you want them to be able to fill in at a variety of positions on the offensive or defensive front walls.

The New York Jets could be faced with a pleasant dilemma when they reduce their current 90-player roster down to the 53-man limit for the 2016 season opener. One of those that could force his way into the locker room is a Buckeye with limited experience at receiver, but also one with a “bag of tricks” to be able to fill a variety of roles for the squad. Marshall is a gifted athlete who can make a real impact at the next level, if given the chance.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service which has provided insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, you can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

July 11th, 2016 at 10:00am CST by Sam Robinson

Arguably the least talented of the Broncos’ four Peyton Manning-era teams, the 2015 iteration allowed the franchise to collect its third Super Bowl title, and the 2016 version will prepare to defend it in interesting fashion. Denver not only lost its starting quarterback of the past four years but allowed his backup to exit as well, creating a strange scenario for a defending Super Bowl champion.

The Broncos’ quarterback quagmire notwithstanding, they still will probably return nine starters from their No. 1 defense and remain one of the AFC’s favorites. Whereas many once thought Manning’s retirement would double as the end of Denver’s championship window, the team’s dominant defense looks to keep it pried open. But has Denver gambled too much at the game’s most important position to make a realistic title defense?

Notable signings:

Von Miller, LB: One year, $14.26MM. Fully guaranteed. Assigned exclusive franchise tag.
C.J. Anderson, RB: Four years, $18MM. $7.6M guaranteed. Broncos matched Dolphins’ RFA offer sheet.
Donald Stephenson, T: Three years, $14MM. $6MM guaranteed.
Jared Crick, DE: Two years, $4MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Ronnie Hillman, RB: One year, $2MM. $500K guaranteed.
Garrett Graham, TE: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Jordan Norwood, WR: One year, $880K. $50K guaranteed.
Russell Okung, T: One year, $5MM. $3MM available via incentives. Club can exercise $1MM option bonus after 2016 that will lock in remaining four years, $48MM, and $19.5MM guaranteed.
Brandian Ross, CB: One year, $675K.
Shiloh Keo, S: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Dekoda Watson, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit.

The latest in the Broncos’ steady line of franchise tag impasses has predictably been the team’s most complex battle, with Miller having turned down a six-year, $114.5MM deal that would make him the league’s highest-paid defender. His negotiation takes on a much more seminal essence than John Elway‘s previous midsummer value debates. Miller’s team does not feel the full guarantees included in Denver’s initial proposal were sufficient given what Ndamukong Suh and now Fletcher Cox received. Cox’s Eagles deal doesn’t contain more guaranteed cash at signing but includes nearly $60MM in full guarantees within nine months, essentially tethering the defensive tackle to Philadelphia’s payroll for the next three seasons.

However, the Broncos have increased their efforts to retain Miller by Friday’s deadline, pushing more guaranteed money toward the former No. 2 overall pick within the first nine months of the prospective deal. Miller’s camp has not accepted or rejected these new terms, and either way, a resolution is coming this week.

Miller’s options remain the same, realistically speaking: sign a long-term deal by July 15, or play 2016 on the exclusive franchise tag. The 27-year-old pass-rusher has threatened to hold out, refusing to play the season on the tag, but would miss out on $14MM+ if he sat out the season. However, he may need to keep up this threat since the Broncos aren’t negotiating against any other team like the Dolphins were with Suh or Giants with Olivier Vernon.

The Broncos have received an incredible bargain from Miller. In his initial five seasons with the Broncos, Miller earned barely half of what Suh raked in ($60MM) in his five Lions years after being drafted No. 2 overall under the old CBA.

While a Miller-less 2016 could deal a knockout blow to a potential Broncos repeat that rests on its defense’s shoulders, Denver has signed all three of its franchise players under Elway — Matt Prater (2012), Ryan Clady (’13) and Demaryius Thomas (’15) — to long-term deals. And Thomas’ standoff with the Broncos lasted until minutes before the deadline, much like Miller’s could.

The Dolphins’ Suh pact is playing a key role in the Miller talks, and the Fins signing Anderson to an offer sheet also heavily impacted the Broncos’ offseason. The running back will now more than triple what his salary would have been had he signed the low-end RFA tender ($1.67MM) after Denver pulled an about-face of sorts and matched Miami’s offer. Anderson received interest from several teams, with the Bears offering the most money, and it appeared the Broncos miscalculated their starting ball-carrier’s market.

That said, Anderson’s deal may end up benefiting the Broncos if he can continue to be an effective runner. After the Dolphins frontloaded the offer sheet to give the 25-year-old back a $6MM cap number in 2016, the figures drop to $3MM in ’17 and $4.5MM in ’18; the latter three sums are almost completely non-guaranteed. As the salary cap continues to rise, the Broncos may have backed into a favorable agreement with someone who could be their first long-term solution at running back since Terrell Davis.

Their Super Bowl conquest notwithstanding, the Broncos did not receive much from their tackles last season. After Ryan Clady and Ty Sambrailo were lost for the season, Ryan Harris and Michael Schofield underwhelmed. The defending champions’ line will likely feature Okung and Stephenson as its bookends. Each comes with risk.

Stephenson actually slotted below both Harris and Schofield in Pro Football Focus’ 2015 tackle rankings after an injury-plagued season with the Chiefs. Given many chances to start during the past four years, Stephenson couldn’t keep Kansas City’s right tackle job. A third-round pick in 2012, the 6-foot-6 Stephenson has always looked the part but lost his job due to a PED suspension in 2014 and couldn’t hold off replacement-level talent Jah Reid as last season progressed. Gary Kubiak is high on the Broncos’ first free agent signing of 2016, and Stephenson hasn’t been tried as a zone-blocker yet. But the results haven’t come to this point for a player given starter-level money.

Okung also did not receive starter-level cash, at least not guaranteed. The self-represented player took the same two-pronged deal Kelvin Beachum did with the Jaguars as a bet on himself in advance of what will be an audition season for him in Denver. But the soon-to-be 29-year-old Okung didn’t receive any guaranteed money and can be cut easily. The Broncos don’t have another option to plug in here, but if the former Seahawks tackle’s injury-prone ways persist, he may be back in free agency at age 30 and have to accept another short-term deal. Of course, Okung received quite a bit of cash from Seattle as an old-CBA top-10 pick, but he took considerable risk signing this deal.

Had the Broncos known Devontae Booker was going to fall to them in the fourth round, they probably would have moved on from Hillman. Last season’s primary starter, but a player whose production faded badly down the stretch, Hillman did not find much of a market for his services and now looks to be a temporary stopgap behind Anderson while Booker develops. However, this does create an interesting scenario for the Broncos.

After Davis’ knee issues forced a retirement after 2001, the Broncos plugged in numerous backs. They traded four starters — headlined by 2004’s Clinton Portis-for-Champ Bailey swap — in the 2000s and moved on from Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno after they led the team in rushing. Odd circumstances now have the same runners set to reside atop the backfield depth chart for the third straight year.

Graham and Crick represent the latest Kubiak disciples to venture to Denver from Houston. Both are short-term options in all likelihood, having signed later in free agency. Crick struggled across from J.J. Watt last season but is known for his above-average play against the run. Graham may be an insurance policy in case Jeff Heuerman is not ready to take on the starting tight end position for which the Broncos seem to be preparing him.

Notable losses:

Omar Bolden, S
Aaron Brewer, LS: Released
David Bruton, S
Josh Bush, S
Andre Caldwell, WR
Owen Daniels, TE: Released
Vernon Davis, TE
Ryan Harris, T
Malik Jackson, DL
Peyton Manning, QB: Retired
Evan Mathis, G
Lerentee McCray, LB
Brock Osweiler, QB
Tyler Polumbus, OL: Retired
Antonio Smith, DE
Danny Trevathan, LB
Louis Vasquez, G: Released

After one of the greatest stretches of quarterback play in NFL history, Manning declined immensely around October 2014. But, the Broncos rolled to two Super Bowls with their prescient 2012 free agent signing and re-established themselves as one of the league’s powers after years of middling play. Manning quarterbacked the Broncos to four AFC West titles, four first-round byes – Denver was just the fourth team in NFL history to accomplish that feat – and returned from a career-threatening foot injury to lead Denver to three playoff wins to leave the game as a Super Bowl champion.

What happened next for Denver doesn’t have a historical parallel, at least not the way the Broncos did it. By watching Osweiler venture to Houston for four years and $72MM (John Elway didn’t go higher than $16MM AAV for the four-year backup’s late-20s seasons), the Broncos will now be the second Super Bowl champion in the free agency era to watch their top two QBs depart. The 2001 Ravens also signed Elvis Grbac, whose reputation and resume at the time surpassed 2016 Broncos trade acquisition Mark Sanchez.

The 25-year-old Osweiler’s market may have formed when the Eagles signed Sam Bradford to a deal worth $18MM per season, and the Broncos then became linked to just about every available quarterback this offseason — including Bradford — before selecting Paxton Lynch in the first round.

Denver pursued Colin Kaepernick, brought Brian Hoyer in for a visit and was also connected to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown briefly. It will mark the first time since the those Ravens that a defending Super Bowl champion will enter the following season without either of its top two QBs from the championship campaign.

The quintet assigned to block for Manning’s eventual replacement will look much different as well, with the Broncos parting ways with two All-Pro guards. Cutting Vasquez and letting Mathis walk deprives the Broncos of two of the best guards in team history. Vasquez struggled with knee problems last season and did not perform as well as he had during his 2013 All-Pro slate or a 2014 season that saw a relocation to right tackle. The 29-year-old lineman remains unsigned, an indication of his perceived health going into what would be an eighth NFL season.

Mathis battled maladies as well but still finished as Pro Football Focus’ best run-blocking guard in 2015. The emergency signing last summer delivered on his one-year contract, leading a three-guard rotation that also included current left guard Max Garcia. Denver still did not make a concerted effort to retain Mathis, and the All-Pros’ departures leave Garcia and Ty Sambrailo as the projected first-string guards.

The Jaguars and Bears plucked two defensive starters from the Broncos’ roster. Denver went to nearly $11MM per year in an effort to keep Jackson but didn’t make a concerted attempt to re-sign Trevathan.

An analytic Malik Jackson (vertical) s darling in 2013-14 as a part-time player in Jack Del Rio‘s 4-3 defense, Jackson broke out as a starter in his contract year despite playing his third position in three seasons. The former fifth-round pick lined up as a 3-4 five-technique end after spending the ’13 season as a 4-3 three-technique tackle — where he’ll start in Jacksonville — and ’14 slate as a 4-3 end. Jackson became the eighth-highest-paid defensive lineman at $14.25MM per year this offseason, and the Broncos will likely turn to a committee to replace him at right defensive end.

The team’s leading tackler in both of its recent AFC championship seasons, Trevathan functioned as a three-down linebacker as both a 4-3 outside presence under John Fox and on the inside under Wade Phillips. The ex-sixth-round pick’s last full season under Fox produced 152 tackles — the Broncos’ most in a season since Michael Brooks in 1992. Denver did not opt to address the position in the draft or via free agency and will give incumbents Todd Davis and Corey Nelson, former Day 3 draft picks themselves, the chance to slot in alongside Brandon Marshall.

The team does not have a surefire replacement at tight end. Daniels came to Denver a step slower than his Houston days and struggled oftentimes to separate from coverage during the season. But he did produce 517 receiving yards, just 10 more than his 2014 Ravens output and nearly 100 more than Julius Thomas‘ injury-limited 2014 work in Denver, and scored twice in the AFC championship game. After being cut a day before free agency opened, Daniels remains unsigned.

Trades:

Acquired QB Mark Sanchez from the Eagles in exchange for a conditional 2017 seventh-round pick.
Acquired a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 157) from the Jets in exchange for T Ryan Clady and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 235).
Acquired a 2016 first-round pick (No. 26) from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2016 first-round pick (No. 31) and a 2016 third-round pick (No. 94).
Acquired a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 176) and a 2017 sixth-round pick from the Titans in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 157) and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 253).

Going from Clady and Peyton Manning to Russell Okung and Mark Sanchez on a resume page, Denver exchanged nine first-team All-Pro appearances combined for zero. But Manning’s retirement came as a result of a rapid decline, and Clady missed 36 total Broncos games due to foot and knee maladies in 2013 and 2015. Although Clady could still be better than the Broncos’ current tackles, his best days are probably behind him.

The 29-year-old left tackle volunteered to renegotiate his contract, but the sides couldn’t agree on terms, inducing the Broncos to trade their longest-tenured player. A two-time All-Pro prior to the Lisfranc setback in 2013, Clady appeared a step slower in his last starts in Denver in 2014, inducing hesitancy from the team about bringing him back on an $11.6MM cap figure this season.

It was somewhat surprising the Broncos’ veteran quarterback option became Sanchez given his disappointing career to date. The 29-year-old quarterback is a career 56% passer and has just one 20-touchdown pass season to his credit (2011), but like in New York, a lot doesn’t figure to be asked of Sanchez. He’ll have a strong defense and probably the two best wide receivers he’s played with during his career to target. But unlike the Jets in 2009-10 — when Sanchez quarterbacked Gang Green to back-to-back AFC title games — the Broncos’ run game is not an unquestioned offensive centerpiece, however, given the fact four of their offensive line spots will be housed by new full-time starters at those positions.

The Broncos didn’t give up anything of relevance for Sanchez and have him under contract for just one more season. But the former No. 5 overall pick may be the team’s best option under center if it wants to claim a sixth straight AFC West crown.

Draft picks:

1-26: Paxton Lynch, QB (Memphis)
2-63: Adam Gotsis, DT (Georgia Tech)
3-98: Justin Simmons, S (Boston College)
4-136: Devontae Booker, RB (Utah)
5-144: Connor McGovern, G (Missouri)
6-176: Andy Janovich, FB (Nebraska)
6-219: William Parks, S (Arizona)
7-228: Riley Dixon, P (Syracuse)

The final pages of the Broncos’ layered offseason quarterback screenplay led to Lynch becoming the heir apparent Brock Osweiler was supposed to be. Also a 6-foot-7 early-entry prospect considered a developmental player, Lynch is believed to possess a higher ceiling than Osweiler did coming out of college four years ago. Enough so that Jerry Jones publicly lamented not offering enough to the Seahawks to trade up to No. 26. The Memphis alum’s skills aren’t disputed, but Lynch’s timetable is.

Denver going only with Sanchez as a veteran gatekeeper option will force Lynch to the field far quicker than Osweiler got there. The mobile Lynch threw 28 TDs compared to four INTs in the mid-major American Athletic Conference last season but is viewed by most experts as a project. Reports of the Broncos deeming him ahead of schedule notwithstanding, he remains behind Sanchez and Trevor Siemian going into training camp and could need a year to observe. Sanchez might not offer him that luxury, making the Broncos’ quarterback plan a short-term risk at a time when the franchise boasts an otherwise-strong nucleus capable of succeeding in January.

Gotsis and Simmons both figure to be rotational presences as rookies. Viewed as a reach by some, the Georgia Tech product is coming off a torn meniscus and looks to be behind Vance Walker and Jared Crick in the defensive end rotation. Simmons intercepted five passes at Boston College as a senior but won’t start over T.J. Ward or Darian Stewart this season. The latter’s contract expiring after 2016 could create a long-term competition between Simmons and Parks at free safety.

McGovern could end up a starter at right guard soon, should the Broncos deem his strength more important than Ty Sambrailo‘s agility. Both played guard in college before moving to tackle later in their respective careers at Missouri and Colorado State. They figure to be matched up in a head-to-head competition.

Dixon’s arrival may end the Britton Colquitt era despite the incumbent being a key player in the postseason, punting 23 times in the playoffs. He averaged 46.61 yards per boot, exactly a three-yard increase from his regular-season production, and forced the Steelers, Patriots and Panthers to make long drives against the Broncos’ No. 1 defense. That said, the 31-year-old Colquitt has a $4MM cap number, which is the third-highest among punters. The$1.4MM pay cut Colquitt accepted last August did not affect his 2016 salary.

Extensions and Restructures:

Brandon Marshall, LB: Extended through 2020. Four years, $32MM. $15.053MM guaranteed.

The Broncos’ penchant for reaching extensions at or near deadlines continued this June when they retained Marshall a day before teams could rescind tenders assigned to RFAs. Although the June 15 date doesn’t bring the high stakes July 15’s franchise tag deadline does, Marshall’s future in Denver would have become less certain if he played this season on the $2.55MM second-round tender and hit free agency. Marshall becomes the Broncos’ most notable non-rush linebacker extended since they re-upped D.J. Williams in 2008.

As I anticipated in May, Marshall landed on the second tier of 3-4 inside linebacker contacts. His $8MM-AAV deal, which was nearly $2MM more per year than the Bears gave Trevathan, placed the 26-year-old former practice squad player seventh at his respective position — between Brian Cushing and Mychal Kendricks.

Marshall led Broncos ‘backers in snaps the past two seasons and has a longer track record of being a plus coverage player than Trevathan. Denver’s decision not to draft or sign another inside ‘backer pointed to the team prioritizing a Marshall deal, with the former Jaguars fifth-rounder profiling as the only non-rush linebacker on the roster with much experience.

Other:

Declined 2017 fifth-year option for DT Sylvester Williams ($6.757MM).
Learned CB Aqib Talib was shot at a Dallas nightclub.
Signed 21 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

Williams’ 2017 option would have made him the second-highest-paid 3-4 nose tackle in the league, behind only Marcell Dareus, in 2017. And the Bills dynamo earned his contract on the strength of his work in a 4-3 scheme, which is much friendlier to tackles’ stat pages. Williams, who did not flash much as a 4-3 tackle in 2013-14, will also turn 29 in what would have been his fifth-year option season after entering the league a bit later due to a delayed college start. A middling talent who did not factor into the Broncos’ historically elite nickel package last year, Williams has not yet justified that price, so the former North Carolina standout will join DeMarcus Ware and Darian Stewart as expiring defensive starters.

Talib’s situation looms as less certain. The Broncos signed him two years ago to a frontloaded six-year deal that really profiled as a three-year pact with an escape hatch after Year 3. He’s delivered on the six-year, $57MM accord to date but still stood as unlikely to see all six of those years when he signed the deal. Now 30, Talib could be a darkhorse release or trade candidate in 2017 due to this latest off-the-field incident — one that could induce a suspension soon — and the fact that the dead money on his deal shrinks from $11.5MM in 2016 to $2MM in ’17.

However, the Broncos have the cap space to keep Talib on their books next season. So, the top-tier trio of Talib, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby could remain intact going forward if the troika’s highest-paid member continues to produce in 2016. The former first-round pick sees more work against No. 1 receivers, with Harris sticking to the slot on passing downs in most instances, so it’s clear the Broncos value Talib. How much they’ll continue to tolerate from probably their most polarizing player, especially with both Harris and Roby booked long-term at cheaper rates, poses as a key question.

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Demaryius Thomas, WR: $15,200,000
Von Miller, LB: $14,129,000
Aqib Talib, CB: $9,968,750
Chris Harris, CB: $9,000,000
DeMarcus Ware, LB: $8,010,418
Derek Wolfe, DE: $6,800,000
Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $6,600,000
C.J. Anderson, RB: $6,000,000
T.J. Ward, S: $5,750,000
Russell Okung, T: $5,200,000

Well-positioned on defense even if it will be tough to repeat 2015’s level of performance, the Broncos stand in good position to vie for another AFC West championship. Assuming Miller signs an extension, the questions for Denver loom inside the hash marks on offense. Like it will be difficult for the defending champions’ defense to replicate that showing, it stands also to be hard to advance deep in the playoffs again with substandard quarterback play. The Broncos’ bold strategy here will play the biggest part in determining how close they can come to defending their title.

Contract information from Over the Cap, Spotrac, and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cowboys Talking To Justin Durant

July 11th, 2016 at 8:51am CST by Zachary Links

The Cowboys are talking to linebacker Justin Durant about a potential reunion, Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports tweets. Durant could give Dallas some needed depth at linebacker while Rolando McClain is suspended.

Durant, 31 in September, spent the 2015 season with the Falcons but was released by Atlanta in February. Prior to that, Durant spent two years in Dallas. Durant may not be a superstar, but he does offer some familiarity with Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli‘s playbook and that’s a major plus as the team faces ten games without McClain. Durant also offers versatility having played at different linebacker spots during his time with the Cowboys.

In 2015, McClain graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 28 linebacker (subscription required). In his suspension-shortened season, McClain recorded 80 total tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 pass deflections. After being slapped with a 10-game ban, it appears that McClain has entered stage three of the stage three of the league’s substance policy for marijuana. McClain has always been regarded as a highly-talented linebacker but his off-field issues have hampered him throughout his NFL career.

Durant inked a three-year deal with a base value of $10.8MM with Atlanta following the ’15 season. Unfortunately, he did not give the Falcons the kind of production they were expecting. In 13 games (12 starts), Durant tallied 81 tackles and three pass deflections. He has not played a full 16 game season since 2013.

Last week, PFR’s Dallas Robinson ran down potential solutions for Dallas at linebacker, including Durant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extra Points: Raiders, JPP, Bills, Allen

July 10th, 2016 at 9:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

This month will go a long way toward determining whether or not Las Vegas becomes the Raiders‘ new home. The Southern Nevada Tourism and Infrastructure Committee will meet again on Monday for further discussion on a proposed $1.45 billion stadium.

A July 28 deadline looms for the city to finalize funding plans for a future Raiders stadium, and Vincent Bonsignore of the Los Angeles Daily News tweets the city will meet that deadline and come up with a stadium financing arrangement, noting “a lot of” behind-the-scenes action is occurring to move this process forward.

We last heard the SNTIC and the developers’ hopes at how much public money will be used in financing this stadium remain incongruent. But with Oakland far behind Vegas in this process and Mark Davis previously pledging he’d move the Raiders to Nevada — albeit without certainty he’d receive the 24 votes necessary from his fellow owners — an potentially unprecedented opportunity exists for the city to acquire an NFL franchise.

Here’s the latest from around the league.

An in-season extension agreement between the Giants and Jason Pierre-Paul seems unlikely, James Kratch of NJ.com writes. Pierre-Paul’s altered career arc and looming extensions for Johnathan Hankins and/or Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg could make JPP a lower priority. Of course, if the former All-Pro shows improvement in his new form, that could certainly change. Kratch writes JPP should be hesitant to sign an extension on his one-year, $10MM deal in order to reach free agency again and see what’s out there.
Auxiliary offensive talents Jerome Felton and Marquise Goodwin are two Bills with a lot to prove come training camp, Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News writes. Felton’s four-year, $9.2MM contract only translated to 291 snaps in 16 games last season as the Tyrod Taylor-led offense mostly operated out of single-back and shotgun formations. Felton resides as the league’s second-highest-paid fullback at $2.3MM AAV. He has $1.9MM in dead money on his deal, which has three years remaining. Goodwin did not qualify for the U.S. Olympic long jump team and now must play catch-up behind receivers who participated in Buffalo’s offseason program. Kolby Listenbee also brings a similar speed element to Goodwin, complicating the former Olympian’s path back to the 53-man roster.
Another Olympian could have a future in the NFL but may decide track and field will be his occupation now. Devon Allen blazed to a clear victory in Saturday’s 110-meter hurdle final at the U.S. Olympic Trials and will head to Brazil for the Summer Games. However, the wide receiver remains on Oregon’s roster entering his junior season and told Austin Meek of The Register-Guard he plans to keep playing football for now. “I think I’m going to leave those doors open as long as I can,” Allen said. The now-21-year-old Allen caught 41 passes for 684 yards and seven touchdowns for the Ducks as a freshman in 2014 before tearing his ACL in the ensuing Rose Bowl. He skipped spring practice to train for the U.S. Trials but could enter the draft with momentum next spring, Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk writes, as a speed receiver.
The Chargers cleared a hurdle in their downtown stadium effort but remain in an uphill battle.

AFC North Rumors: RG3, Browns, Ravens

July 10th, 2016 at 7:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Here’s the latest on the AFC North as we wrap up one of the final Sundays without football on the 2016 calendar.

Reports pegged Robert Griffin III‘s first offseason in Cleveland as a hit-and-miss endeavor, and Josh McCown remains on the Browns‘ roster after being the team’s most effective starter during 2015. But Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer still expects RG3 to win the job. The longtime Browns reporter notes the team will not be in a hurry to bestow that starting distinction upon Griffin, wanting the fifth-year passer to truly earn the job rather than allow his contract status — he’s signed on a three-year, $21MM deal, while McCown is signed for three years and $14MM — provide the difference.
The Browns do not have a deep depth chart at running back, but the rebuilding team won’t look to sign a veteran, Cabot writes. She categorizes the desire to supplement Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson as a low priority, pointing to Terrell Watson and Glenn Winston as players they’re eager to see in training camp. Despite the Browns also losing Mitchell Schwartz and Alex Mack in free agency, Cabot characterizes the Browns as set to be a force on the ground thanks to improved blocking schemes.
Browns inside linebackers coach Johnny Holland told Dan Labbe of the Plain Dealer the team will attempt to further develop Christian Kirksey as a pass-rusher entering his third season. Describing Ray Horton‘s system as one that will benefit a player who’s expected to lock down a starting job at inside linebacker after being a part-time cog in that role the past two years, Holland notes Kirksey’s athleticism will enable this multifaceted approach. Kirksey has 5.5 sacks in his first two years, which have included 13 total starts.
The Ravens like rookie second-round pick Kamalei Correa‘s versatility, and Clifton Brown of CSNMidAtlantic.com said the former Boise State linebacker could see time at both inside and outside linebacker as a rookie. Correa served as primarily a pass-rusher in Idaho over the past three seasons, registering 19 sacks, but received reps on the inside in the Ravens’ 3-4 scheme during the offseason.
Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin addressed the team’s pass-catching situation, their potential to add another free agent and his own status in Cincinnati.

Latest On Thomas Rawls

July 10th, 2016 at 4:18pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Seahawks have overhauled their running back corps this offseason in the wake of Marshawn Lynch‘s retirement, spending three draft picks on the position while also re-signing Christine Michael. But the most important member in the running back room remains second-year player Thomas Rawls, who is still recovering from a broken ankle that he suffered in December. Speaking with Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com today, Rawls offered reassurance that he’ll “most definitely” be ready to roll when training camp begins.

“Rehab is going phenomenal,” Rawls said. “Running, cutting, working hard, getting back out there. I’m looking forward to being out there the first week. Rehab has been going phenomenal this whole offseason. I don’t have a break because I’ve gotta work 10 times harder. So I’m excited to come back and fill that void in that backfield.”

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said last month that he “absolutely” expected Rawls to be fully healthy when the regular season starts, but did allow that the club will probably ease the former undrafted free agent into training camp and preseason contests. Indeed, Adam Caplan of ESPN.com tweets that the Seahawks are unlikely to let Rawls play many snaps during the exhibition season, and will instead use those games to evaluate their rookie running back class.

That class is comprised of three 2016 draft picks: third-rounder C.J. Prosise, fifth-rounder Alex Collins, and seventh-rounder Zac Brooks. The club also boasts undrafted rookie free agent Tre Madden, who is listed on the team’s website as a running back, but is widely thought of as more of a fullback. But despite all the new additions, Kapadia still expects Rawls to enter the season as the starter if he’s healthy.

Rawls, who turns 23 years old next month, was a revelation during his rookie season, rushing for more than 800 yards and four touchdowns in relief of Lynch. He surpassed the 100-yard mark four times, including a memorable Week 11 contest against the 49ers, when Rawls ran for 209 yards, the second-highest total in the NFL last year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 7/3/16 – 7/10/16

July 10th, 2016 at 3:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content, analysis, and reporting produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Now that the Cowboys have lost Rolando McClain for 10 games due to a substance abuse suspension, I examined several options — both internal and external — that Dallas could consider at it seeks to replace its middle linebacker. PFR reported that the Cowboys are pleased with their current linebacking corps, and is looking forward to letting their younger players compete during training camp. But if the club does look for an outside replacement, we listed Donald Butler, Stephen Tulloch, and DeMeco Ryans as free agents who might get consideration, while noting Arthur Brown and Bruce Carter are among the NFL veterans on roster bubbles who could become available in the coming weeks/months.
The Vikings‘ offensive line is one of the more interesting position groups in the league, so I decided to take a look at the roster, analyzing which players might be cut during training camp. With center John Sullivan returning from injury and free agent Alex Boone inking a four-year deal, 2015 starters Mike Harris and Joe Berger figure to be relegated to the bench. Right tackle Phil Loadholt, meanwhile, will be threatened by new addition Andre Smith, and could be a cap casualty. However, PFR reported that Loadholt expects to enter a strong free agent market if he is let go by Minnesota.
We’re now five days away from the July 15 deadline by which franchise-tagged players must extensions with their respective clubs (or else play out the year under the tender), and Sam Robinson asked PFR readers to weigh in with their thoughts on the franchise players in our latest Community Tailgate. As Sam writes, Eric Berry (Chiefs) and Justin Tucker (Ravens) look like the most likely candidates to agree to long-term deals in the next week. But elsewhere, Von Miller, Alshon Jeffery, Muhammad Wilkerson, Kirk Cousins, and Trumaine Johnson all face various obstacles in reaching a new contract.
Veteran safety Donte Whitner has been a free agent for three months, and though he’s taken a visit with the Rams, he hasn’t drawn much other known interest. But he’s still a productive player, so I listed eight clubs that could benefit by adding him to their secondary. In addition to Los Angeles, the Cowboys, Lions, Jaguars, Chargers, and others might make sense as potential landing spots.
In the latest installment of our Offseason in Review series, I looked back at the Browns‘ moves over the past several months. Cleveland didn’t add many free agents, as Robert Griffin III and Demario Davis were the club’s most high-profile outside additions. But the Browns did overhaul their front office and coaching staff, and made a series of trades that helped them accrual capital for years to come.
PFR was the first to report that free agent offensive lineman Julian Vandervelde has generated interest from three NFL clubs this offseason. Vandervelde, who can play both center and guard, has spent his entire career with the Eagles.

Jets, Muhammad Wilkerson To Talk This Week

July 10th, 2016 at 2:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Jets will likely make one “last-ditch” attempt to sign franchise player Muhammad Wilkerson this week, a source close to the defensive end tells Mike Garafolo of NFL.com (video link). Still, as Garafolo adds, New York and Wilkerson’s camp have been at odds over his value for the better part of two years, so a deal coming together at the eleventh hour is still considered unlikely.

Wilkerson’s negotiations with the Jets have been well-documented over the course of the past several months. After reportedly shopping him around draft time, Gang Green has shown no interest in acquiescing to Wilkerson’ demands, and now that he’s reportedly asking to match — or better — the six-year, $103MM contract inked by Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, talks have seemingly slowed to a crawl. Wilkerson, for his part, has expressed frustration that New York hasn’t shown an interest in retaining him beyond the 2016 season.

In any event, Wilkerson appears likely to play out the season under the franchise tender, which would pay him a fully guaranteed $15.701MM. However, Wilkerson doesn’t seem intent on signing that tag any time soon — as such, he won’t technically be under contract, meaning the Jets can’t fine him if he skips training camp. According to Garafolo, Wilkerson hasn’t made an official decision as of yet on whether he’ll attend July and August practice sessions

Wilkerson, 26, enjoyed his best season as a pro in 2015, racking up a career-high 12 sacks and forcing three fumbles, to go along with 64 tackles. Arguably the best defensive player for the Jets last season, Wilkerson also earned his first Pro Bowl berth.

Although Wilkerson’s performance showed he was worthy of franchise-tag consideration, there were also a handful of factors working against him. He broke his leg during the Jets’ regular-season finale, and while that injury isn’t expected to sideline him at all next season, it complicated his contract situation a little. Additionally, the Jets have two other talented defensive ends on their roster, in Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams, so re-signing Wilkerson could be viewed as something of a luxury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Week In Review: 7/3/16 – 7/10/16

July 10th, 2016 at 1:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Franchise Players:

The Broncos and linebacker Von Miller negotiated all day on Friday, and Denver finally submitted a new offer that includes an earlier full guarantee schedule.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins is at an impasse with the Redskins, meaning he will play out the 2016 season under the franchise tag.
Although discussions are still occurring, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery appears unlikely to reach a deal with the Bears before the July 15 deadline.
“Nothing” is happening in deliberations between the Jets and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson.
Safety Eric Berry expressed surprise that talks with the Chiefs are moving at a slow pace.

Signed:

Saints – Darryl Tapp, DE (link)

Released:

Lions – Stephen Tulloch, LB (link)

Retired:

Kenny Phillips, S (link)

Other:

No progress between Stephon Gilmore, Bills (link)
Talks on hold between Broncos, Emmanuel Sanders (link)
Police investigating Seahawks‘ Brandon Browner for assault (link)
Bengals not pursuing Anquan Boldin (link)
Latest on Chargers‘ stadium efforts (link)

Extra Points: Cousins, Broncos, Texans

July 10th, 2016 at 12:31pm CST by Rory Parks

Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com is fully aware of the recent report indicating that Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins will not sign a long-term deal with Washington prior to the July 15 deadline, which means that he will play the 2016 season under the franchise tag. However, Tandler is not ruling out the possibility of a multi-year contract just yet. As he observes, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, who reported that the Cousins-Redskins impasse would not be resolved this week, said more or less the same thing about the Demaryius Thomas negotiations last year, only to see Thomas sign a five-year contract with Denver right before the deadline.

Florio, though, is not the only one to report that Cousins would play out the 2016 season on his franchise tender. ESPN’s Adam Schefter, for instance, has said the same thing for at least a month. But as Tandler notes, deadlines drive deals, and both Cousins and the Redskins still have plenty of incentive to get a deal done in the next couple of days.

Now let’s take a look at a few more notes from around the league, beginning with another franchise-tagged player:

Jason Cole of Bleacher Report has a non-update update on Von Miller, tweeting that there is no news of any kind to pass along on the negotiations between the Broncos star and the club today. Mike Klis of 9News.com, though, reports that there is a reason for that lack of news. Klis says that the two parties are expected to think about where they are in negotiations today, but not necessarily talk about it. Talks are expected to resume tomorrow, as neither side wants to jeopardize the progress that has been made in recent days.
We heard several days ago that contract talks between the Broncos and wideout Emmanuel Sanders have been put on hold, and Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post opines that although Sanders deserves top dollar, he will probably have to leave Denver as a free agent after the 2016 season to find it. As Kiszla writes, the Broncos’ way of doing business doesn’t seem to be quite as generous now that Pat Bowlen is no longer in charge of day-to-day operations.
Andrew Mason of DenverBroncos.com looks at how the Broncos might go about replacing Malik Jackson, and Mason writes that the Broncos will likely turn to a committee approach, with Vance Walker at the head of the committee.
Texans superstar J.J. Watt‘s six-year, $100MM deal was “handled perfectly” in 2014, Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com writes. Fitzgerald goes on to explain how Houston got away with “highway robbery” in that contract, perhaps exploiting Watt’s desire to be a $100MM player to gain a favorable contractual structure. As such, Fitzgerald believes Watt’s deal is the best one on the Texans’ books, whereas new quarterback Brock Osweiler‘s much-ballyhooed contract is the worst.

Load More Posts