This Date In Transactions History: Falcons Trade For Chris Chandler
Earlier this month, it cost the Broncos a fourth-round pick to acquire Joe Flacco from the Ravens. The former Super Bowl MVP will head into his age-34 season with a chance to rebound in another city.
One of the best possible scenarios for the Broncos would be Flacco giving the team a season like the one Chris Chandler delivered shortly after he was dealt for a package centering around a fourth-round pick.
Twenty-two years ago today, the Falcons landed a long-term starting quarterback for only fourth- and sixth-round picks. Atlanta acquiring a 31-year-old quarterback for late-round picks turned out to be a pivotal exchange. (This was not even the most interesting Chandler trade, with the former Colts third-round pick fetching Indianapolis the 1992 No. 2 overall selection from Tampa Bay in a 1990 swap.)
The primary Houston Oilers starting quarterback from 1995-96, Chandler became expendable after the since-relocated franchise gave the keys to former top-five pick Steve McNair. The latter soon led the Titans to their only Super Bowl appearance, but the player he replaced reached the NFL’s biggest stage first. Chandler piloted the best season in Falcons history, steering the then-32-year-old organization to a 14-2 record and Super Bowl XXXIII.
A journeyman prior to finding his footing in Georgia, Chandler made two Pro Bowls in a 17-year career. Both came with the Falcons. After landing on the NFC’s 1997 Pro Bowl roster, Chandler secured a four-year, $25MM extension. He rewarded that investment by throwing for 3,154 yards and 25 touchdown passes — both career-high marks — and leading the Falcons to the No. 2 seed in the 1998 NFC playoffs. Chandler then threw for 340 yards and connected on three scoring strikes in the Falcons’ upset win over the Vikings to secure the franchise’s first Super Bowl berth.
Although Atlanta did not fare well against Denver in that game and did not post another winning season with Chandler at the helm, the veteran turned a modest investment into a trip to previously unseen heights. After the Falcons traded up for Michael Vick in 2001, Chandler still started 14 games that season. The Falcons, though, began the full-fledged Vick era in 2002 and released Chandler. He retired after the ’04 season.
The Oilers did not do poorly in making this move, either. They used the 1997 fourth-round pick to select Derrick Mason, who became McNair’s No. 1 target for several years in the early 2000s. Mason played 15 NFL seasons, primarily with the Titans and Ravens.
PFR Originals: 2/17/19 – 2/24/19
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Having a hard time keeping track of every NFL coaching change? Be sure to bookmark PFR’s list of 2019’s major coaching moves, where we’ve kept track of every head coach and coordinator change this offseason.
- The 2019 NFL draft is roughly two months away, and with compensatory picks now awarded, PFR has posted its complete 2019 draft order.
- Where will free agent running back Le’Veon Bell sign this offseason? That’s the question Andrew Ortenberg posed to PFR readers Saturday night, and ~30% of respondents believe Bell will end up with the Jets.
- Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas is entering the final year of his contract, leading Rory Parks to examine what the star pass-catcher might be targeting on an extension with New Orleans.
Extension Candidate: Michael Thomas
Saints star receiver Michael Thomas has been sensational since New Orleans selected him in the second round of the 2016 draft. Yes, he has benefited from having a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing him the football, but his hands, route-running, and athleticism suggest that he would excel in almost any offensive attack.
Through the first three years of his career, Thomas is averaging a whopping 107 receptions per season to go along with 1,262 yards and nearly eight touchdowns. His yardage and reception totals have improved each year, and he finished the 2018 campaign with 125 catches (on 147 targets) for 1,405 yards and nine scores. The advanced metrics value his work as well, as Pro Football Focus rated him as the No. 2 receiver in the league last season, and among receivers with at least 50 targets, he ranked third in the league in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, which is Football Outsiders’ receiving metric.
And, now that he has completed the third year of his rookie contract, he is eligible for a long-term extension. He is due a comically low $1.148MM salary on the final year of his rookie pact in 2019, but both player and team would like to get a new contract hammered out this offseason. To that end, Thomas recently signed with agent Andrew Kessler of Athletes First after cutting ties with David Mulugheta in November.
Thomas and Mulugheta reportedly had a “difference of opinions,” and Thomas has now changed agents twice in his three professional seasons. It is unclear what exactly Thomas and Mulugheta did not see eye-to-eye on, but Thomas is set to cash in with his new representation.
The former Buckeye turns 26 next month, and he may reset the top of the receiver market. Presently, Odell Beckham Jr. is the top earner among wide receivers, as his recent extension is worth $90MM overall, has an $18MM average annual value, and includes $40.959MM in total guarantees. Antonio Brown ranks second in AAV with a $17MM/year mark (though he wants to redo his deal), and Mike Evans‘s contract has the second-highest total value ($82.5MM).
There was some chatter that OBJ could be the first receiver to hit the $100MM mark, and he may have gotten there if not for some injury and off-field issues. Thomas, who does not have any notable health or character red flags, could be the guy. It would not be surprising to see him land a five-year, $100MM pact with a $40MM+ guarantee.
Of course, the Saints (as always) do not have much cap space, so they will need to be careful about how they structure Thomas’ extension, assuming the two sides are able to come together on a deal. The guess here is that New Orleans will not risk letting Thomas get away and will hand him a record-setting accord before they even have to think about tagging him.
Poll: Where Will Le’Veon Bell Sign This Offseason?
We got confirmation a few days ago that the Steelers won’t attempt to tag and trade Le’Veon Bell, and will let him walk as a free agent. Bell, of course, sat out the entire 2018 season over his contract dispute with Pittsburgh, and we heard just yesterday that he’s seeking a total of $50MM over the first two years of a new deal from salary and signing bonuses.
It’s unclear if Bell will be able to get the huge payday he wants, but he’ll still have a very active market either way with no shortage of suitors. Today, we’ll be taking a look at his most likely destinations.
The Jets have been widely seen as the frontrunner for a while, and will have plenty of cap space available. GM Mike Maccagnan has been signaling for months now that the team will be aggressive in free agency, so New York would seem to be a good fit. It’s already been reported that they won’t be bringing back Isaiah Crowell, so they’ll have a void at running back. Bell would be a nice weapon and safety blanket for Sam Darnold in the passing game. That being said, the Jets apparently have some concern about Bell’s weight and conditioning. Still, the fact that they’re even concerned implies they’re interested.
The Colts have also been linked to Bell for a while now. Coming into the 2018 season they seemed to have a hole at running back, but Marlon Mack performed very well down the stretch. Mack’s emergence could take the team out of the Bell sweepstakes, but they’ll still have a lot of money to spend and could really use better options for Andrew Luck in the passing game aside from T.Y. Hilton.
The Buccaneers are another team that has been frequently mentioned in conjunction with Bell, and are sorely lacking at running back. Last year’s second round pick Ronald Jones didn’t do anything, and Peyton Barber isn’t a viable featured back. New coach Bruce Arians loves to be aggressive, and pursuing a player like Bell would fit him. The Buccaneers are stacked at wide receiver and tight end, and adding Bell would make them one of the most talented offenses in the league.
The Eagles are another playoff-contending team that is missing a featured back, and Bell staying in the state of Pennsylvania has been picking up some steam recently. Darren Sproles is 35 and not much of a runner, Jay Ajayi can never seem to stay healthy, and the young guys behind them have been very inconsistent. The Eagles’ front office is one of the most aggressive in the league, so them making an offer for Bell wouldn’t be at all surprising. Daryl Slater of NJ.com recently listed the Eagles as among his likeliest destinations for Bell.
So, what do you think? Where will Bell end up next season after his year out of the league? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!
Complete 2019 NFL Draft Order
The full 2019 NFL draft order can be found below, sorted by round. The list of 254 selections includes all traded draft picks and compensatory picks. We’ll continue to update the list leading up to the draft if additional deals are made.
Here’s the complete 2019 NFL draft order:
Updated: 4-23-19 (12:50pm CT)
Round 1:
- Arizona Cardinals
- San Francisco 49ers
- New York Jets
- Oakland Raiders
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New York Giants
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Detroit Lions
- Buffalo Bills
- Denver Broncos
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Green Bay Packers
- Miami Dolphins
- Atlanta Falcons
- Washington Redskins
- Carolina Panthers
- New York Giants (from Cleveland)
- Minnesota Vikings
- Tennessee Titans
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Baltimore Ravens
- Houston Texans
- Oakland Raiders (from Chicago)
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Indianapolis Colts
- Oakland Raiders (from Dallas)
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks (from Kansas City)
- Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans)
- Los Angeles Rams
- New England Patriots
Round 2:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets)
- Oakland Raiders
- San Francisco 49ers
- New York Giants
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Buffalo Bills
- Denver Broncos
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
- Atlanta Falcons
- Washington Redskins
- Carolina Panthers
- Miami Dolphins
- Cleveland Browns
- Minnesota Vikings
- Tennessee Titans
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles (from Baltimore)
- Houston Texans (from Seattle)
- Houston Texans
- New England Patriots (from Chicago)
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Dallas Cowboys
- Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- New Orleans Saints
- Kansas City Chiefs (from Los Angeles Rams)
- New England Patriots
2019’s Major NFL Coaching Changes
Because most NFL coaching changes happen in January, those moves can often be overshadowed by the postseason and – subsequently – the major moves that teams makes in free agency. However, those coaching changes shouldn’t be overlooked.
A year ago, 24 of the league’s 32 teams made changes to at least one of their head coach, offensive coordinator, or defensive coordinator spots, and many of those hirings turned into major stories throughout the 2018 season. New head coaches Matt Nagy and Frank Reich led the Bears and Colts, respectively, to the postseason during their first go-rounds in charge, while new Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur leveraged his one-year stint as a play-caller to become the next Packers head coach.
Which new coaches could make a similar impact this year? We may have to wait to find out, but there are certainly plenty of candidates. The full breakdown of 2019’s major coaching changes from around the league is below:
Head coaches:
- Arizona Cardinals: Hired Kliff Kingsbury to replace Steve Wilks.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Hired Zac Taylor to replace Marvin Lewis.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired Freddie Kitchens to replace Hue Jackson / Gregg Williams (interim).
- Denver Broncos: Hired Vic Fangio to replace Vance Joseph.
- Green Bay Packers: Hired Matt LaFleur to replace Mike McCarthy / Joe Philbin (interim).
- Miami Dolphins: Hired Brian Flores to replace Adam Gase.
- New York Jets: Hired Adam Gase to replace Todd Bowles.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hired Bruce Arians to replace Dirk Koetter.
Offensive coordinators:
- Arizona Cardinals: Will not hire an OC to replace Mike McCoy / Byron Leftwich (interim).
- Atlanta Falcons: Hired Dirk Koetter to replace Steve Sarkisian.
- Baltimore Ravens: Promoted Greg Roman to replace Marty Mornhinweg.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Hired Brian Callahan to replace Bill Lazor.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired Todd Monken to replace Freddie Kitchens.
- Dallas Cowboys: Promoted Kellen Moore to replace Scott Linehan.
- Denver Broncos: Hired Rich Scangarello to replace Bill Musgrave.
- Detroit Lions: Hired Darrell Bevell to replace Jim Bob Cooter.
- Green Bay Packers: Hired Nathaniel Hackett to replace Joe Philbin.
- Houston Texans: Promoted Tim Kelly to fill vacant position.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired John DeFilippo to replace Scott Milanovich.
- Miami Dolphins: Hired Chad O’Shea to replace Dowell Loggains.
- Minnesota Vikings: Retained interim OC Kevin Stefanski to replace John DeFilippo.
- New York Jets: Hired Dowell Loggains to replace Jeremy Bates.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hired Byron Leftwich as pass game coordinator/play-caller to replace Todd Monken.
- Tennessee Titans: Promoted Arthur Smith to replace Matt LaFleur.
- Washington Redskins: Promoted Kevin O’Connell to replace Matt Cavanaugh.
Defensive coordinators:
- Arizona Cardinals: Hired Vance Joseph to replace Al Holcomb.
- Atlanta Falcons: Will not hire a DC to replace Marquand Manuel.
- Chicago Bears: Hired Chuck Pagano to replace Vic Fangio.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Hired Lou Anarumo to replace Teryl Austin / Marvin Lewis (interim).
- Cleveland Browns: Hired Steve Wilks to replace Gregg Williams.
- Denver Broncos: Hired Ed Donatell to replace Joe Woods.
- Kansas City Chiefs: Hired Steve Spagnuolo to replace Bob Sutton.
- Miami Dolphins: Hired Patrick Graham to replace Matt Burke.
- New England Patriots: Will hire Greg Schiano to replace Brian Flores.
- New York Jets: Hired Gregg Williams to replace Kacy Rodgers.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hired Todd Bowles to replace Mike Smith / Mark Duffner (interim).
Special teams coordinators:
- Atlanta Falcons: Hired Ben Kotwica to replace Keith Armstrong.
- Buffalo Bills: Hired Heath Farwell to replace Danny Crossman.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired Mike Priefer to replace Amos Jones.
- Detroit Lions: Hired John Bonamego to replace Joe Marciano.
- Green Bay Packers: Hired Shawn Mennenga to replace Ron Zook.
- Miami Dolphins: Hired Danny Crossman to replace Darren Rizzi.
- Minnesota Vikings: Hired Marwan Maalouf to replace Mike Priefer.
- New Orleans Saints: Hired Darren Rizzi to replace Bradford Banta / Mike Westhoff.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hired Keith Armstrong to replace Nate Kaczor.
- Washington Redskins: Hire Nate Kaczor to replace Ben Kotwica.
Other 2018 OCs, DCs with new jobs:
- Atlanta Falcons: Hired former Chiefs DC Bob Sutton as a senior assistant.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Hired former interim Buccaneers DC Mark Duffner as a senior defensive assistant.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired former Cardinals DC Al Holcomb as run game coordinator/linebackers coach.
- New York Jets: Hired former Lions OC Jim Bob Cooter as running backs coach.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Hired former Dolphins DC Matt Burke as a defensive assistant.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Hired former Bengals DC Teryl Austin as a senior defensive assistant/secondary.
- San Francisco 49ers: Hired former Broncos DC Joe Woods as passing game coordinator/defensive backs coach.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hired former Jets DC Kacy Rodgers as defensive line coach.
- Washington Redskins: Re-assigned former OC Matt Cavanaugh as a senior offensive assistant.
PFR Originals: 2/10/19 – 2/17/19
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Rory Parks examined the Steelers’ options with pending free agent running Le’Veon Bell, which include the use of the franchise or transition tag, allowing him to walk without compensation, a trade, or — in the unlikeliest of scenarios — Pittsburgh agreeing to a new deal with Bell.
- In our latest This Date In Transactions History entry, Ben Levine looked back to 2017 when the Dolphins released a pair of failed free agent signees, defensive end Mario Williams and running back Arian Foster.
- Following the Broncos’ acquisition of Joe Flacco, I asked PFR readers if fellow Denver quarterback Case Keenum (who’s now likely to be traded or released) will be a starter in 2019, and if so, where? Most respondents don’t think a club will trust Keenum with a No. 1 role next season, but more than half of voters think the Redskins make sense as a destination.
- With the market scheduled to open in less than a month, make sure to bookmark PFR’s master list of 2019 NFL Free Agents.
This Date In NFL Transactions History: Mario Williams, Arian Foster
Two years ago today, the Dolphins let go of a pair of former Pro Bowlers. The Dolphins terminated the contracts of defensive end Mario Williams and running back Arian Foster, two players who were expected to play bigger roles during their tenures in Miami.
Williams, a former first-overall pick, joined the Dolphins during the 2016 offseason after having been released by the Bills. Miami inked the lineman to a two-year, $17MM deal that included $11.98MM in guaranteed money, an indication that the organization was expecting at least starter-quality production from the four-time Pro Bowler.
Unfortunately, Williams’ lone season with the Dolphins proved to be a dud. Williams appeared in 13 games with the Dolphins, finishing the campaign with only 13 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and one pass defended. Miami released the defensive end on this date in 2017, marking the last time he’s been on an NFL roster. Considering he’s 34 years old and hasn’t played in the NFL in two seasons, his NFL career is presumably over.
The Foster move wasn’t as unexpected nor disappointing as the Williams transaction. Following a standout (albeit injury-riddled) tenure with the Texans, Foster joined the Dolphins to be a backup to Jay Ajayi. The veteran struggled in four games, compiling 55 yards on 22 carries (good for a 2.5-yard average) before being supplanted by rookie Kenyan Drake on the depth chart. Foster ended up announcing his retirement in mid-October, making his subsequent release predictable.
These weren’t the only two moves the Dolphins made two years ago today. The team also let go of defensive tackle Earl Mitchell, who has proceeded to play in 30 games for the 49ers over the past two seasons. The team also waived cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who hasn’t earned an NFL gig since that day.
Poll: Will Case Keenum Be A Starter In 2019?
Case Keenum inked a two-year, $36MM deal with the Broncos just this past offseason, but he’s already been made redundant in Denver after general manager John Elway & Co. sent a fourth-round pick to the Ravens in exchange for quarterback Joe Flacco. Denver will now attempt to trade Keenum, but if the club can’t find a willing partner, it will either ask Keenum to accept a hefty pay cut or release him outright.
The Broncos will likely struggle to find a rival team willing to trade for Keenum, not only because of his lackluster 2018 campaign, but because of his contract. Keenum is due an $18MM base salary in 2019, and $7MM of that total is fully guaranteed. It seems incredibly unlikely that another club would be willing to lock itself into those figures, so unless Denver first restructures Keenum’s contact (potentially by converting some of his base salary guarantees into a bonus that the Broncos would pay), he’s likely to hit the free agent market.
If he does end up leaving the Broncos, would Keenum offer appeal as a starter? He’s only one season removed from leading the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game during a 2017 season in which he ranked second in Total QBR, seventh in adjusted net yards per attempt (the passing metric most correlated with winning), fifth in interception percentage, and seventh in sack percentage.
But Keenum’s 2018 ranks in those same statistics tell a different story. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Keenum finished 30th in Total QBR, 28th in ANY/A, 21st in interception percentage, and 11th in sack percentage. A year after ranking first in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA (meaning he was extremely effective on a per-play basis), Keenum fell all the way to 29th in 2018.
So, do you think Keenum will open the season as a starter next season? Vote below (link for app users), and then keep reading — and voting — as we examine a few potential destinations for the 30-year-old signal-caller:
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Keenum will be a starting quarterback in 2019 — nearly every club would be interested in signing Keeum as a backup passer, so let’s only look at landing spots where Keenum could become a starter. Where are his most likely havens?
Jacksonville Jaguars: Although the Jaguars have Blake Bortles under contract for the next two seasons and will incur a massive dead money hit if they release him, it’s almost unfathomable to imagine Jacksonville entering the 2019 campaign with Bortles still on its roster (let alone as the team’s starting quarterback). Nick Foles could be the Jags’ preferred choice under center, especially now that they’ve hired former Eagles QBs coach John DeFilippo as offensive coordinator, but Keenum would present a cheaper option.
Miami Dolphins: Miami isn’t expected to retain Ryan Tannehill, and — like Denver with Keenum — will explore a trade of Tannehill before cutting him. Under new head coach Brian Flores, the Dolphins aren’t expecting to be competitive any time soon, and are loosely embracing a “tanking” strategy, at least in 2019. Still, Miami needs to put someone under center, and Keenum could offer the club competency at a reasonable rate.
New York Giants: Giants general manager Dave Gettleman earlier this year refused to commit to Eli Manning as his team’s 2019 starter, so there’s no guarantee the franchise icon will return next season. New York is expected to draft a signal-caller within the first two rounds of the upcoming draft, and Keenum could represent a reasonable solution as a bridge quarterback. And perhaps most notably, Keenum experienced his 2017 success under then-Vikings OC Pat Shurmur, who has since taken over the Giants’ head coach.
Washington Redskins: If, as recent reports have indicated, Alex Smith is going to miss the entire 2019 season while recovering from a gruesome leg injury, Washington will need a new quarterback. The only problem? Smith will count for $20.4MM on the Redskins’ salary cap next year, and there’s no way for the club to reduce that figure save for a restructure that would only tie Smith to Washington’s roster for a longer period. Therefore, Keenum might be enticing given that he is only likely to command a modest salary on a short-term contract.
What do you think? Does one of these destinations make sense? Or could an unlisted team have interest in Keenum? Vote below (link for app users), and your thoughts in the comment section:
PFR Originals: 2/3/19 – 2/10/19
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Antonio Brown demanded a trade from the Steelers following the end of the regular season, and while no known deep discussions have yet occurred with other clubs, it’s entirely possible that Brown won’t be on the Pittsburgh roster in 2019. Steelers ownership has, at various times, seemed to have indicated Brown’s time with the club is up while, at other times, leaving open the possibility that Brown could return next year. Pittsburgh would take on roughly $21MM in dead money if it trades Brown before June 1. With all that said, Zach Links asked PFR readers if Brown will be with the Steelers in 2019, and nearly two-thirds of respondents said “no.”
- The Patriots nearly traded Rob Gronkowski to the Lions last offseason, leading the veteran tight end to threaten retirement. Reports indicated Gronk could hang up his cleats even before that near-deal to Detroit was disclosed, and there’s no reason to think he won’t consider retirement this offseason coming off a Super Bowl victory. PFR readers are nearly split in their predictions on Gronkowski’s future, with 52% of respondents in Sam Robinson’s poll saying they think Gronk will return.
- The Alliance of American Football debuted on Saturday, and posted strong enough television ratings to top an NBA game on a rival channel. But will the league be successful in the long run, or will it suffer from football fatigue? Rory Parks posited this question to PFR readers, 76% of whom say they’ll watch the AAF going forward.