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5 Key Stories: 1/20/19 – 1/27/19

January 27th, 2019 at 6:45pm CST by Sam Robinson

Brady, Brees Hall of Fame ceremonies will be further delayed: After a controversial Championship Sunday, the football-following world was denied a Tom Brady–Drew Brees Super Bowl clash. But fans do not have to worry about either legend walking away after the 2018 season. Despite the Saints’ historically brutal playoff exit, Brees offered immediately he plans to return for a 19th season. Brady has continued to insist he will play into his mid-40s, and the Patriots passer reiterated he is not going anywhere — win or lose in Super Bowl LIII — after this season. The 2019 season would be Brady’s 20th.

Fitz makes it official for a 16th season: While Brady and Brees’ contracts run through 2019, Larry Fitzgerald had played out his deal. And the future Hall of Famer did so for a 3-13 Cardinals team. Despite the Cards’ descent, Fitzgerald re-signed to play at least one more season this week. Fitz’s latest deal will be worth at least $11MM. He had previously communicated with Kliff Kingsbury and appears to be sufficiently intrigued by the former Texas Tech head coach coming to revamp the Cardinals’ offense.

 

Ravens finalize John Harbaugh deal: As the Eric DeCosta GM era begins, the most successful head coach in Ravens history’s time in Baltimore will continue. Harbaugh’s extension became official this week, completing his move off the hot seat and in firm command as the Lamar Jackson era gets going. The 12th-year Baltimore HC’s responsibilities are also set to remain the same under DeCosta.

Redskins not expecting Alex Smith to play in 2019: Previously viewed as having a chance to return by training camp, Smith encountered some complications in the hospital. Infections induced several additional surgeries. Now, Washington’s quarterback appears to be in line to miss all of what would have been his age-35 season. Smith appeared in public this week but did so with crutches and a cumbersome apparatus bracing his injured leg. If the former No. 1 overall pick is to return to the field, it will take an arduous process to do so.

Coordinator shuffle continues, with Chiefs entering equation: The Chiefs scored 24 points in the fourth quarter of the AFC championship game and still lost, with a crucial defensive penalty denying the franchise its first Super Bowl berth in 49 years. Two days later, the Chiefs fired DC Bob Sutton. After being connected to Rex Ryan, they replaced him with Steve Spagnuolo, a longtime Andy Reid assistant before his Giants days.

The Dolphins also identified their defensive coordinator in Patrick Graham, and the Bengals are going young on offense, pairing 35-year-old Zac Taylor with 34-year-old OC Brian Callahan. Tight ends coach continues to be a launching-pad Titans position, with new OC Arthur Smith following in Mike Mularkey‘s footsteps in rising from that role to a key job. The Adam Gase–Dowell Loggains partnership will continue in New York.

Nothing is official in Dallas yet, but 30-year-old Kellen Moore may be set for a staggering rise. The recently retired quarterback is the Cowboys’ top OC candidate. And he may be tabbed to call plays, with Jason Garrett‘s CEO-type role in line to continue.

PFR Originals: 1/20/19 – 1/27/19

January 27th, 2019 at 6:01pm CST by Sam Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • With all of the next head coaches either having been hired or set to be hired, I asked which franchise did the best job choosing its next sideline leader. The Buccaneers making Bruce Arians the oldest HC hire in NFL history, at 66, leads the way. Cleveland and Denver’s respective Freddie Kitchens and Vic Fangio choices sit second and third. The Bengals’ and Cardinals’ decisions were not praised nearly as much.
  • Nick Foles will end up as one of the key figures this offseason, and Andrew Ortenberg took a look at where the Super Bowl LII MVP will play in 2019. A job in Jacksonville leads the pack over Foles landing with the Broncos, Redskins or Dolphins.

Poll: Where Will Nick Foles Land?

January 27th, 2019 at 3:45pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg

The Eagles’ loss to the Saints in the divisional round started a countdown clock to what appears to be an inevitable divorce between the team and Nick Foles. The team still views Carson Wentz as its quarterback of the future, which means Foles will very likely be suiting up somewhere other than Philadelphia next season. Foles can pay a $2MM fee to essentially buy his free agency, but the team could then still franchise tag him and attempt to trade him. Whether it’s through free agency or in a trade, today we’ll be taking a look at his most likely destinations:

The Jaguars are widely seen as being a competent quarterback away from being a contender, and might be the most likely team to pursue a veteran quarterback this offseason. The team made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game last year, but regressed heavily in 2018 and finished the season 5-11. Jacksonville is looking to make the most out of the window that it has with their elite defense, and is a natural contender for Foles.

The team appears set to move on from Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler, and could have an entirely new quarterback room in 2019. If Foles were to be traded the Eagles would likely see the Jaguars as an appealing option, as they’re in a different conference and won’t play each other for another four years. On the other hand, the Jags’ cap situation isn’t the best, and they’d need to shed some salary to be able to offer what Foles is likely to be seeking. The Jaguars have the seventh overall pick in this year’s draft, and could use that to select a quarterback like Dwayne Haskins instead of pursuing a veteran.

Another AFC team that could be interested is the Dolphins. The team isn’t going to be bringing back Ryan Tannehill, and Foles could be a nice option as a bridge quarterback. Tannehill hasn’t been able to stay healthy the past few seasons, and this year wasn’t any exception as he missed five games with a shoulder injury. The team is looking to get younger, and they might want a capable veteran signal caller to help them transition.

With Tannehill’s salary off the books they’ll have plenty of money to offer him a deal, and Miami doesn’t have many other options for a starter next year. On the other hand, the Dolphins have signaled that they plan on going all in on tanking 2019, so they might not be interested in winning too many games with Foles. If the plan is to lose as many games as possible, it wouldn’t make much sense for them to give up draft assets for Foles if the Eagles do end up tagging him.

The Broncos already have a Foles-esque placeholder in Case Keenum, but there’s been some chatter that they might want to move on from Keenum this offseason. Denver could get out of Keenum’s contract fairly easily, and he has no ties to the new coaching staff led by Vic Fangio. If Fangio and his new offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello decide they don’t love Keenum, they could ask Broncos GM John Elway to look elsewhere.

Elway has aggressively pursued veteran quarterbacks in free agency in the past, most notably Peyton Manning a handful of years ago and Keenum last offseason, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s interested in Foles. Denver doesn’t appear to be rebuilding and thinks it has the pieces to win with the right quarterback, and Foles could be what they’re looking for.

A slightly more out of the box possibility is the Redskins. The Eagles would surely prefer he didn’t go to their division rival, but if they don’t tag him they might not have any say. It was reported earlier today that Washington was expecting Alex Smith to miss the entire 2019 season, so the Redskins will very likely be in the market for a quarterback.

The Redskins know him well, and Foles beat them easily in Week 17 this year. While the Eagles might do all they can to prevent it, this would certainly be the most entertaining scenario of all. Foles playing Wentz twice a year would be great, and it would be surprising if the Redskins don’t at least look into it.

So, what do you think? Where will Foles end up next season as he looks to continue his magic? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Where Will Nick Foles End Up Next Season
Jacksonville Jaguars 47.33% (1,842 votes)
Denver Broncos 18.47% (719 votes)
Washington Redskins 18.04% (702 votes)
Miami Dolphins 16.16% (629 votes)
Total Votes: 3,892

Poll: Which Team Made Best HC Hire?

January 21st, 2019 at 6:44pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the NFL now in the two-week waiting period until its final meaningful game, 30 of the 32 teams are going through offseason motions. And some of those teams are still deciding on coordinators.

Unless another Patriots assistant reneges on an agreement post-Super Bowl, or Zac Taylor makes an 11th-hour decision to remain in Los Angeles rather than taking over in Cincinnati, the eight NFL teams in need of head coaches made their choices.

So, which franchise best positioned itself for long-term success?

The trend being offensive innovation to keep up with some of the ahead-of-the-curve offenses, six of the eight teams hired offensively oriented coaches.

By a substantial margin, the Cardinals won the outside-the-box trophy. After washing out as an NFL quarterback in the mid-2000s, Kliff Kingsbury spent more than a decade as a college coach. The 39-year-old groomed some sought-after NFL talent in Patrick Mahomes, Case Keenum and Davis Webb, while also bringing Baker Mayfield to Texas Tech for a short stay. But he finished his stay in Lubbock, Texas, with a sub-.500 record. The Cards added Vance Joseph and Tom Clements to be his top assistants. Because of their unconventional hire, the Cardinals will be one of the most interesting teams in 2019.

Bruce Arians‘ CBS stay lasting one year will bring one of the more interesting coaches in modern NFL history back to the sideline. Tampa Bay’s new coach is the oldest ever hired, at 66 years old. Arians will be tethered to Jameis Winston, and it does not sound like he has issues with that. Arians hired several former Cardinals assistants to help him attempt to snap the NFC’s longest active playoff drought. Arians led the Cardinals to their best season, record-wise (13-3 in 2015), since the franchise has been in Arizona but is also barely a year removed from retiring.

The Packers and Browns opted for OCs, the former seeing a major difference in Matt LaFleur‘s vision than those of the other coaches that interviewed. Cleveland made the biggest continuity move of this year’s HC-seeking octet,promoting Freddie Kitchens over candidates with more experience.

LaFleur’s Titans offense regressed from Mike Mularkey‘s final unit, with Tennessee ranking 27th in points scored last season. But the 39-year-old coach, who will be working with ex-Jaguars assistant Nathaniel Hackett in overseeing the back end of Aaron Rodgers‘ prime, trained under Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. Kitchens rose from position coach to head coach in less than three months, but Mayfield’s performance in the second half of the season was obviously different from his play under Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.

Taylor and Adam Gase round out the offensively geared hires, the former being perhaps the highest-variance candidate among the non-Kingsbury wing.

Although Taylor was the Dolphins’ interim OC in 2015 and McVay’s quarterbacks coach this season, he spent 2016 running a Cincinnati Bearcats offense that ranked 123rd (out of 128 Division I-FBS teams) with 19.3 points per game for a 4-8 team and was the Rams’ assistant wideouts coach as recently as 2017. Gase led the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016, but Ryan Tannehill‘s issues staying healthy and living up to his draft slot limited the former Broncos and Bears OC. The Jets saw enough to add the formerly in-demand assistant, who may be ready to bring longtime coworker Dowell Loggains with him to the Big Apple.

Denver and Miami went with defense, with the Broncos having no competition for 2018’s assistant coach of the year and, arguably, this decade’s top DC.

The Dolphins cancelled their Vic Fangio summit, and he will be in charge of elevating a Broncos team that finished with back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since the early 1970s. John Elway‘s plan to reinstall Gary Kubiak as OC also hit a snag, with the longtime friends’ disagreement on staffing leading to the Broncos hiring 49ers QBs coach Rich Scangarello. The Dolphins will become the fifth franchise to hire a Bill Belichick-era Patriots defensive coordinator (or de facto DC, in Brian Flores‘ case), following the Browns (Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini), Jets (Mangini), Chiefs (Crennel) and Lions (Matt Patricia). Flores helped the Patriots to yet another top-10 ranking in points allowed — their 15th in the past 18 seasons — and another Super Bowl berth.

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Which team made the best HC hire?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians 25.95% (1,934 votes)
Cleveland Browns, Freddie Kitchens 20.00% (1,491 votes)
Denver Broncos, Vic Fangio 15.99% (1,192 votes)
Green Bay Packers, Matt LaFleur 14.72% (1,097 votes)
New York Jets, Adam Gase 7.32% (546 votes)
Miami Dolphins, Brian Flores 6.24% (465 votes)
Arizona Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury 6.00% (447 votes)
Cincinnati Bengals, Zac Taylor 3.78% (282 votes)
Total Votes: 7,454

Important 2019 Offseason Dates

January 17th, 2019 at 7:43pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Even with the NFL in the midst of the postseason, the offseason is already underway, as head coaching and other staff vacancies are quickly being fgilled. As such, it’s worth looking ahead to the NFL’s offseason calendar for an idea of which dates will be more important during the next several weeks and months. With teams filling out their coaching staffs and preparing to make changes to rosters, there are plenty of days to circle on the calendar.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the NFL’s key offseason dates and deadlines:

January

  • January 19
    • East-West Shrine Game in St. Petersburg, Florida.
  • January 19
    • NFLPA Collegiate Bowl in Pasadena, California.
  • January 26
    • Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.
  • January 27
    • Assistant coaches for teams in the Super Bowl – who have previously interviewed for a head coaching job – can interview a second time with the club no later than the Sunday before the Super Bowl.

February

  • February 4
    • 2019 waiver system begins.
  • February 12
    • Teams may sign CFL players whose 2018 contracts have expired.
  • February 19

    • First day for teams to designate a franchise or transition player.
  • February 26-March 4
    • The NFL scouting combine will be held in Indianapolis.

March

  • March 5
    • As of 3pm CT, teams can no longer designate a franchise or transition player.
  • March 11-13
    • Team may contact agents and negotiate contracts for players who will become unrestricted free agents on March 13. Free agent contracts can’t be signed yet, but informal agreements can be reached.
  • March 13
    • The 2019 league year begins, and free agency opens. By 3pm CT, teams must make decisions on player options, submit qualifying offers to restricted free agents, submit minimum tenders to exclusive rights free agents, and be under the 2019 salary cap. Trades can be made and free agents can be signed after 3pm CT.
  • March 24-27
    • The NFL owners meetings will be held in Phoenix, Arizona.

April

  • April 19
    • Deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets.
  • April 24
    • Deadline for previous club to exercise right of first refusal (ie. match offer sheets) on restricted free agents.
  • April 25-27
    • The NFL draft will be held in Nashville, Tennessee.

May

  • May 2
    • Teams exercising fifth-year options on 2016 first-round picks must do so prior to May 2.

July

  • July 15
    • Deadline for teams to work out multi-year contracts with free agents designated as franchise players.

2019 Offensive/Defensive Coordinator Tracker

January 13th, 2019 at 5:07pm CST by Dallas Robinson

While eight NFL teams are making a head coaching change this offseason, the number of clubs replacing offensive and/or defensive coordinators figures to be much higher than that. In addition to all those teams hiring new head coaches, who may want to bring in their own assistants, several clubs also figure to make changes on one side of the ball or the other after getting disappointing results in 2018. And, of course, the teams whose coordinators landed head coaching jobs will need to replace them.

With reports circulating on potential candidates, interview requests, and actual meetings, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the latest updates on teams hiring new offensive and/or defensive coordinators. This post, which will be updated daily, can be found under the “PFR Features” menu on the right-hand side of the site.

[Updated: 2/21/19, 4:58pm CT]

Offensive Coordinators

Arizona Cardinals (Out: Byron Leftwich)

Atlanta Falcons (Out: Steve Sarkisian)

Baltimore Ravens (Out: Marty Mornhinweg)

  • Greg Roman, assistant head coach/tight ends (Ravens): Promoted

Cincinnati Bengals (Out: Bill Lazor)

Cleveland Browns (Out: Freddie Kitchens)

  • Todd Monken, former offensive coordinator (Buccaneers): Hired
    • Head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays.
  • Jim Bob Cooter, former offensive coordinator (Lions): Interviewed

Dallas Cowboys (Out: Scott Linehan)

Denver Broncos (Out: Bill Musgrave)

  • Rich Scangarello, quarterbacks coach (49ers): Hired
  • Gary Kubiak, former head coach (Broncos): Will not be hired

Detroit Lions (Out: Jim Bob Cooter)

  • Darrell Bevell, former offensive coordinator (Seahawks): Hired
  • Nathaniel Hackett, former offensive coordinator (Jaguars): Interviewed
  • Todd Monken, former offensive coordinator (Buccaneers): Interviewed
  • Steve Sarkisian, former offensive coordinator (Falcons): Mentioned as candidate

Green Bay Packers (Out: Joe Philbin)

  • Nathaniel Hackett, former offensive coordinator (Jaguars): Hired
    • Head coach Matt LaFleur will call plays.
  • Mike McDaniel, run game coordinator (49ers): Mentioned as candidate
  • Todd Monken, former offensive coordinator (Buccaneers): Interviewed

Houston Texans 

  • Tim Kelly, tight ends coach (Texans): Promoted

Jacksonville Jaguars (Out: Scott Milanovich)

Miami Dolphins (Out: Dowell Loggains)

  • Chad O’Shea, wide receivers coach (Patriots): Hired

Minnesota Vikings

New York Jets (Out: Jeremy Bates)

  • Dowell Loggains, former offensive coordinator (Dolphins): Hired
    • Head coach Adam Gase will call plays.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Out: Todd Monken)

Tennessee Titans (Out: Matt LaFleur)

  • Arthur Smith, tight ends coach (Titans): Promoted

Washington Redskins (Out: Matt Cavanaugh)

  • Kevin O’Connell, quarterbacks coach (Redskins): Promoted
    • Cavanaugh re-assigned as senior offensive assistant.

Defensive Coordinators

Arizona Cardinals (Out: Al Holcomb)

Atlanta Falcons (Out: Marquand Manuel)

Chicago Bears (Out: Vic Fangio)

Cincinnati Bengals (Out: Marvin Lewis)

Cleveland Browns (Out: Gregg Williams)

Denver Broncos (Out: Joe Woods)

  • Ed Donatell, secondary coach (Bears): Hired

Kansas City Chiefs (Out: Bob Sutton)

Miami Dolphins (Out: Matt Burke)

  • Patrick Graham, linebacker coach/run game coordinator (Packers): Hired
  • Bret Bielema, consultant to the head coach (Patriots): Mentioned as candidate

New England Patriots (Out: Brian Flores)

  • Greg Schiano, former defensive coordinator (Ohio State): To be hired

New York Jets (Out: Kacy Rodgers)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Out: Mark Duffner)

  • Todd Bowles, former head coach (Jets): Hired

Only Three NFL Head Coaching Vacancies Remain

January 9th, 2019 at 1:56pm CST by Zachary Links

Eight NFL teams were in search of a head coach to start the New Year, but five clubs have already found their man. Let’s quickly run down the jobs that are off the table and check in on where things stand for the three remaining vacancies:

“No Vacancy”:

Arizona Cardinals

  • Kliff Kingsbury, offensive coordinator (USC): Hired

Cleveland Browns

  • Freddie Kitchens, offensive coordinator (Browns): Hired

Denver Broncos

  • Vic Fangio, defensive coordinator (Bears): Hired

Green Bay Packers

  • Matt LaFleur, offensive coordinator (Titans): Hired

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Bruce Arians, former head coach (Cardinals): Hired

Jobs Still Open:

Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins

New York Jets

The Bengals, so far, have cast a wide net, but the recommendation of Marvin Lewis and the club’s history with Jackson could lead to the ex-Browns coach landing on his feet. They’re also considering another recently fired head coach in Joseph and the group lacks general star power, so Jackson’s chances cannot be dismissed.

The buzz is slowly building around Richard in Miami, even though he is not believed to be a serious candidate in New York. From a pure knowledge standpoint, Allen may be the best bet of the free agent bunch. Overall, the Dolphins’ top choice could be Harbaugh, but he won’t be an option for them if he signs an extension with the Ravens. Even if he doesn’t, the Dolphins might not want to part with significant draft capital and shell out big bucks to land him.

The Jets never really had a chance at Kliff Kingsbury, but Jets fans probably won’t lose sleep over seeing the inexperienced young coach go to Arizona. What’s left is a mishmash of head coaching retreads (Caldwell, Gase, McCarthy), coordinators and assistants (Monken, Richard, Bieniemy), and one more college-to-pros candidate (Rhule). Some believe that Rhule, the head coach at Baylor, is the Jets’ No. 1 target.

The list above, derived from the 2019 Head Coaching Search Tracker, was edited to omit candidates that are no longer in consideration or have taken jobs elsewhere.

2019 NFL Head Coaching Search Tracker

January 6th, 2019 at 5:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Several NFL teams are currently hunting for a new head coach, and amidst reports about interview requests and potential candidates, it’s easy to lose track of the latest updates in the shuffle. So we’ll use this space – which will be updated until every team has hired a new head coach – to keep track of the most recent news and rumors. It can be found on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.”

Listed below are the head coaching candidates that have been linked to each of the teams with vacancies, along with their current status. If and when other teams decide to make head coaching changes, they’ll be added to this list. Here’s the current breakdown:

[Updated: 2/5/19, 8:17am CT]

Arizona Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers

Miami Dolphins

New York Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

POLL: Most Important Game Of Week 15?

December 15th, 2018 at 9:30pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg

Only three weeks are left in the 2018 NFL regular season, and Week 15 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, teams like the Rams, Patriots, and Saints are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 1% playoff leverage). Teams like the Lions, Giants, 49ers, Cardinals, Bills, and Raiders etc. will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for some clubs, Week 15 means everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

  • Miami Dolphins (19%) @ Minnesota Vikings (42%)
  • New England Patriots (1%) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (42%)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1%) @ Baltimore Ravens (40%)
  • Tennessee Titans (29%) @ New York Giants (1%)
  • Dallas Cowboys (2%) @ Indianapolis Colts (24%)

Of course, there are other factors at play here as well. It’s not just playoff bids that are on the line here, many coaches are coaching for their jobs as well. Ron Rivera, John Harbaugh, and Dirk Koetter are all in grave danger of being fired if their respective teams miss the playoffs, so each of their games this week have some added meaning.. There’s also a bunch of games with seeding relevance, as the number one seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is still wide open with four teams in contention.

This week is massive for the AFC North, as both the Steelers and Ravens will see their playoff chances dramatically decrease if they can’t win. The Patriots are still battling for seeding in the AFC, and could clinch the AFC East with a win and Dolphins loss.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Dolphins/Vikings the most critical game of the weekend because it’ll go a long way toward determining wild card spots? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Buccaneers/Ravens mean more because of the coaching implications? Vote below (link for app users), and add your thoughts in the comments section!

Which is the most important Week 15 game?
Patriots @ Steelers 47.06% (440 votes)
Dolphins @ Vikings 27.70% (259 votes)
Cowboys @ Colts 16.90% (158 votes)
Titans @ Giants 4.92% (46 votes)
Buccaneers @ Ravens 3.42% (32 votes)
Total Votes: 935

 

PFR Originals: 12/2/18 – 12/9/18

December 9th, 2018 at 2:02pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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