PFR Originals News & Rumors

Release Candidate: Packers’ Za’Darius Smith

November 27th, 2021 at 7:19pm CST by Ely Allen

A year ago, Za’Darius Smith was closing in on his second straight season with double-digit sacks. Through his first two years with the Packers, Smith had done nothing but validate the 4-year, $66MM contract he’d earned in free agency. Unfortunately, a back injury that has forced the seven-year veteran to miss all but 18 snaps of the 2021 season will require the Packers and Smith to have some tough conversations.

A fourth-round pick out of Kentucky, Smith was drafted by the Ravens in the 2015 NFL Draft in hopes that he would replace pass rusher Pernell McPhee who had left in free agency to sign with the Bears. Little did they know, Smith would do quite an impressive imitation of McPhee. Both players had impressive rookie seasons – McPhee had 6.0 sacks and Smith had 5.5 – and fairly pedestrian numbers their second and third years – McPhee had 3.5 sacks over those two years and Smith had 4.5. Both players saved their best performances for their contract years with McPhee tallying 7.5 sacks and Smith racking up 8.5.

Smith leveraged that 8.5 sack season into his current contract with Green Bay. As a Packer, Smith started every game of the 2019 and 2020 seasons leading the team in sacks both years. When Smith missed Green Bay’s second game of the season it marked the first full game he had missed due to injury since Week 14 of the 2017 season.

Still, this injury has proven to be a major one. Smith started the season with his health in doubt due to a lingering back injury and it was clear after only 18 snaps that he was not ready to return to the field. Smith was shut down and hasn’t seen a snap since. The implications of an injury this debilitating have an unfortunate effect on the pass rusher’s contract status.

Now issues have already arisen with Smith’s contract after he showed dismay in the Packers’ handling of restructures this offseason. The Packers chose not to restructure quarterback Aaron Rodgers‘ contract during a tumultuous offseason but utilized an automatic conversion clause in Smith’s contract to help subsidize an extension for running back Aaron Jones. The restructuring of Smith’s contract created a monster $28.1MM cap hit for next year, up from $14MM this season. If the Packers were to release Smith to avoid the cap hit, they would be left with $12.38MM in dead money vs. $15.75MM in cap room.

If Green Bay only had to deal with the cap hit, it would be an easy conversation of how to extend a new deal to Smith and avoid the massive number in 2022. But, in conjunction with a lingering back injury, the cap hit makes Smith’s potential to end up as a cap casualty more and more likely.

Now it’s not a foregone conclusion that Smith won’t work out a deal with Green Bay, but he’d have to be willing to take a bit of a pay cut from a team that has already shorted him in a contract situation. More likely would be Smith’s acceptance of a release that allows him to test his value on the free agent market. The Packers also probably wouldn’t mind the market setting the price, as it will likely be lower than Smith’s initial demands.

It’s also worth noting that a late season return has not been ruled out for the ‘backer, possibly giving him a chance to make his case for another big pay day.

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC West?

November 27th, 2021 at 5:50pm CST by Ely Allen

The race for the AFC West is far from over. There is no team with a losing record in the division, setting for up an exciting final stretch of the regular season.

The Chiefs (7-4) began the season as clear favorites to win the division, but they’ve failed to create the distance they’d hoped for between themselves and their divisional foes. Kansas City’s first five games were defined by shootouts in which its defense struggled to contribute to team success, leading to an opening record of 2-3. After the Chiefs’ 27-3 loss to the Titans in Week 7, their defense seems to have found its footing. The Chris Jones-led unit is allowing 11.75 points per game since then en route to a four-game win streak.

In Los Angeles, Justin Herbert has benefitted from having healthy weapons in running back Austin Ekeler and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, an improvement from the 6-4 Chargers’ injury-riddled 2020 season. Much like the Chiefs, though, the Chargers’ defense has struggled to turn that success into wins as they’ve only managed to hold two opponents under 20 points this season.

The Raiders (6-5) have been a team of streaks this season. They began the year 3-0 with impressive wins over the Ravens and Steelers. They then lost two, won two, and lost three in a row through their next seven games with concerning losses to the currently reeling Bears and Giants. Las Vegas rebounded with an impressive Thanksgiving Day win in Dallas. The Raiders’ current winning record is all the more impressive when you consider the off-the-field controversies that have rocked the franchise.

The Raiders cut promising second-year receiver Henry Ruggs after he was arrested for his role in a fatal car accident. Their other 2020 first-round pick, Damon Arnette, is also gone after appearing in a video which showed him threatening a person with a gun. All of this after former head coach Jon Gruden was forced to resign in the wake of an email scandal that revealed the coach’s use of derogatory and offensive language. Las Vegas currently sits in third in the division at 6-5.

Over their first eight games of the season, the Broncos (5-5) were fairly easy to decipher. They beat teams currently under .500 — the Giants, Jaguars, Jets and the Football Team — but they could not get past teams currently over .500 (Ravens, Steelers, Raiders, Browns). They did buck this trend in their past two games by beating the Cowboys (7-4) and losing to the Eagles (4-6). They certainly hope that trend is over, as the Lions represent the only team they face over the rest of the season with a sub-.500 record. Offseason pickup Teddy Bridgewater leads an offense that has seen the return of Pro Bowler Courtland Sutton, though Denver’s latest run of injury misfortune involved second-year receiver Jerry Jeudy missing most of the season’s first half. The running game has been split pretty evenly between seven-year veteran Melvin Gordon and second-round rookie Javonte Williams.

With seven weeks remaining in the regular season, potential for divisional chaos remains. The Chiefs don’t have any remaining opponents currently under .500. The Raiders are set to play just one — the Washington Football Team. The Bolts potentially have a softer route, with two teams remaining under .500 in the Giants and Texans. In addition, there’s plenty of divisional play left to ensue before the playoff field forms.

So who do you see taking control of the AFC West? Do the Chiefs regain their supremacy and claim the division for the sixth straight year? Or do any of the other contenders take advantage of Kansas City’s four early-season losses? Vote in our latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chiefs OT Orlando Brown Jr.

November 26th, 2021 at 8:30pm CST by Ely Allen

He bet on himself to be a focal point of a team’s offensive line and he hopes to see that bet pay off this spring. Set to be a free agent after the 2021-22 season concludes, Orlando Brown Jr. has had an interesting journey through his rookie contract.

A unanimous All-American at Oklahoma, Brown was selected in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Ravens. Despite being considered a first-round pick for much of his last year in college, a poor performance at the NFL Combine plummeted the young tackle’s stock. Brown quickly made sure that the football world knew he was not going to be defined by his combine performance and became widely considered one of the biggest steals of the draft. Six games into his rookie year, an injury to starting right tackle James Hurst thrust Brown into a starting role. Brown, meanwhile, hasn’t missed a single game since taking over.

Brown went to his first Pro Bowl in 2019 after his first full season as the Ravens’ starting right tackle. The next year an injury to newly extended left tackle Ronnie Stanley pushed Brown to the left side of the offensive line for the last 1o games of the season. Brown made his second Pro Bowl that year after playing most of the year at left tackle.

At that point Brown made it clear to the Ravens that he intended to be the best left tackle in the NFL. This put Baltimore in a difficult position as they had signed Stanley to a five-year extension worth $98.75 MM just prior to the 2020 season. Stanley, a First-Team All-Pro in 2019, had been drafted only two years prior to Brown and had established himself as the future blindside blocker in Baltimore. But Brown’s determination to play on the left side of the line stemmed from his late father’s wish that he not settle for any other position in the NFL, so Brown requested a trade to an organization that would allow him to live that dream.

The Ravens honored Brown’s request and traded him, along with a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a sixth-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft, to the Chiefs for a first-, third-, and fourth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. It was initially thought that Kansas City would extend the young stalwart tackle and lock down their future at the position, but the Chiefs held off, allowing Brown to play out the final year of his rookie contract.

Perhaps the Chiefs wanted to be sure that Brown could perform in a pass-happy system that differed greatly from the Ravens’ run-heavy offense. Brown’s play has not suffered as he continues to use his length well in pass-blocking and, while not dominant as a run-blocker, he rarely misses blocks in the run game.

It’s not expected that Kansas City would let their blindside blocker walk after only one year. Brown should expect a strong extension offer from the Chiefs. And while it may not be feasible to reach the yearly average value of contracts like Trent Williams ($23.01MM) or David Bakhtiari ($23 MM), the contracts of other young tackles like Laremy Tunsil ($22MM per year) and former teammate Stanley ($19.75MM) should serve as a good jumping off point to determine Brown’s worth.

A conversation will probably need to be had with quarterback and former MVP Patrick Mahomes as his cap hit is expected to jump from $7.43MM in 2021 to $35.79MM in 2022. If the Chiefs are not able to make a deal work, Brown will certainly become one of the top offseason priorities for any team interested in a franchise left tackle.

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC North?

November 26th, 2021 at 6:34pm CST by Ely Allen

There is perhaps no division in the NFL more up in the air right now than the AFC North. All four clubs have a winning record and, by extension, every team has a chance of taking the division title.

Back in the August, the Ravens were favored to win the division with +115 odds with the Browns (+140) in a close second. Since then, injuries have leveled the playing field. Now, the recently resurgent Steelers (+400) and the surprising Bengals (+2000) find themselves right in the thick of the race.

The preseason favorite Ravens were bit by the injury bug early and often, losing their three top returning running backs – J.K. Dobbins (ACL), Gus Edwards (ACL), and Justice Hill (Achilles) – before playing a single regular season game. They also lost their team leader in interceptions and starting cornerback, Marcus Peters (ACL), in the preseason and star offensive tackle, Ronnie Stanley (ankle), after only one game. The Ravens quickly adopted a next-man-up philosophy where possible and turned to the free agent market for some veterans to fill out their depleted running back room, settling on eight-year journeyman Latavius Murray and former Falcons star Devonta Freeman to tote the rock. The Ravens rattled off five straight wins after a season opening loss, but have struggled with consistent success over the last few weeks with troubling performances in losses to the Bengals and Dolphins and close three-point wins against the Vikings and Bears. Despite the up-and-down play, the Ravens occupy first place in the AFC North with a 7-3 record.

The Bengals are making a bid to be the latest team in the NFL to go from worst in the division one year to first in the division the very next year. A healthy Joe Burrow, with some NFL experience now under his belt, has benefitted greatly from the team’s first round pick out of LSU, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has teamed up with wide receivers Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins to create quite the three-headed monster. Boyd received important experience as a number one target in 2019 in the absence of A.J. Green and Higgins had an impressive rookie year in 2020 after coming one pick shy of the first round. They’ve also been assisted greatly by a defense that ranks eighth in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. The Bengals have shown a bit of a Jekyll-and-Hyde persona with dominant wins over the Steelers, Ravens, and Raiders (all +.500) and puzzling losses to struggling franchises in the Bears and Jets. They currently sit in 2nd in the AFC North with a 6-4 record.

The Steelers have run hot and cold, opening the year with a shocking road win over the Bills before losing three straight. They rebounded with four straight wins before tying the winless Lions and losing to the Chargers in which they trailed 27-10 late in the 3rd quarter. The story of the Steelers’ season has been one of a 39 year-old Ben Roethlisberger trying to find success with trio of young WRs – Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and JuJu Smith-Schuster – and a rookie running back, Najee Harris. Johnson and Claypool have taken the reins as Roethlisberger’s top targets, while Smith-Schuster struggled to find footing in 2021 before landing on IR. Harris, has taken over as the Steelers’ bell-cow, taking 188 of the team’s 244 total carries. While Harris ranks top ten in rushing yards, the defense has struggled without stars Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt in the lineup. The Steelers currently sit at 5-4-1, good for third in the AFC North.

Even though Nick Chubb has the third-most rushing yards in the NFL, the Browns have lacked much of their expected offensive firepower. Jarvis Landry has missed 4 games while his would-be partner, Odell Beckham Jr., is out of the picture. Kareem Hunt‘s calf injury hasn’t helped either, but the Browns have still managed to stay afloat at 6-5.

There’s lots of time left in the 18-week schedule for this order to change, especially since the Browns get to face the Ravens twice inside of the next three weeks. Meanwhile, every AFC North team has a stacked dance card — all of their remaining opponents are over the .500 mark. If you enjoy entertainment and chaos, this is the divisional race for you.

So how do you see the division shaping up? Vote in our latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

This Date In Transactions History: Panthers Shut Down Michael Oher

November 25th, 2021 at 10:40am CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2016, the Panthers placed Michael Oher on injured reserve. The move, in essence, capped Oher’s NFL career.

The left tackle had suffered a serious concussion, just months after inking a brand new three-year, $21.6MM extension. The new portion of that deal was set to start in 2017, but he never played a snap on that pact. Oher, of “Blind Side” fame, later ran into personal trouble. In the spring of ’17, he was alleged to have fought an Uber driver. Later on, he posted a picture to social media with what appeared to be prescribed medication for brain injuries.

In July of that year, the Panthers released Oher with a failed physical designation, which allowed him to collect injury compensation. Oher’s contract was over before it even began, and his NFL career was finished after just eight seasons in the NFL. Oher overcame adversity throughout his life to become a first-round pick and found his second wind with the Panthers after some rocky years with the Ravens and Titans.

The Panthers reached Super Bowl 50 with Oher as Cam Newton‘s protector and they hoped to keep him in that spot through at least 2019. Instead, Oher would see his last NFL down at the age of 30 and leave the game after starting in all 110 of his games.

This Date In Transactions History: Broncos Cut Adam “Pacman” Jones

November 20th, 2021 at 6:52pm CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2018, the Broncos released cornerback Adam Jones. As the veteran broke the news himself on social media, he vowed to continue his career elsewhere.

“Well, Denver, it was good,” Jones wrote on Instagram. “Thanks for the opportunity!!!! On to the next.”

Jones didn’t realize it at the time, but this pretty much marked the end of his NFL career. Jones, 35 at the time, hooked on with the Broncos that summer to serve as their punt returner and No. 4 CB. Once a dynamic threat in the return game, he did not live up to expectations. Jones had just 25 total yards off of seven attempts.

Jones was showing obvious signs of decline before his Denver deal — few teams considered him before the Bengals rejected his option for 2018. The veteran was limited to just nine games with the Bengals in 2017 and didn’t fare particularly well on his 299 defensive snaps. Pro Football Focus assigned Jones the worst mark (47.1) of his entire career that year, indicating that he was more of a return man than a reliable corner.

Jones’ legacy may be clouded by his string of off-the-field incidents, but he was a force in his prime. After being selected by the Titans with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2005 draft, Jones offered up a series of head-turning highlights, including three punt return touchdowns in his second pro year.

Years after being ID’d as a suspect in the now-infamous Atlanta incident, Jones found his second wind with the Bengals. Jones spent eight years in the Bengals’ secondary and put together three straight seasons with three interceptions in each. In 2014, Jones earned his first ever First-Team All-Pro nod and received a Pro Bowl selection in 2015. He achieved a great deal throughout his tumultuous career, but his 2018 release proved that he could no longer outrun Father Time.

This Date In Transactions History: Bears Place Kyle Long On IR

November 14th, 2021 at 8:45pm CST by Zachary Links

Five years ago today, the Bears lost star offensive lineman Kyle Long for the year with a severe right ankle injury. Unfortunately, his health troubles did not end with the 2016 season.

Long’s right ankle injury capped his season after just eight games. But, before that, he performed as one of the best offensive linemen in the game. Long made three straight Pro Bowls in his first three seasons, seeing time at both guard and tackle. And, in all three years, Pro Football Focus had him ranked top five at his position.

“It seems like we’ve got somebody freaking hurt every game,” left guard Josh Sitton said after the ’16 injury. “It sucks watching him down there on the ground. It’s tough to see one of your friends, one of your teammates and a helluva competitor, he was down there and he was in a lot of pain. It was tough to see.”

Long missed only one regular season game from 2013-2015. But, from 2016 through 2019, he made just 30 appearances out of a possible 64. It wasn’t just the ankle — there was a labrum tear in his left shoulder, triceps strains, painful hip injuries, and other maladies. After he was shut down in ’19, we didn’t hear much about Long in the early part of 2020. Then, there were summer rumblings of a return.

“Full transparency I miss football, but at what cost? [Still,] I’m most likely gonna be on golf courses instead of gridirons,” Long tweeted, before adding. “I didn’t retire, I got fired.”

The Chiefs hired/signed Long this past March, but a June knee injury kept him from joining the Week 1 roster. Now, for the good news – the Chiefs designated Long for return last week. Now, just before his 33rd birthday, Long could be on the verge of completing his comeback.

Poll: Who Will Earn NFC’s No. 1 Seed?

November 12th, 2021 at 6:49pm CST by Sam Robinson

While the AFC features a deeper contender pool, the NFC brings more clarity near the top. Five teams enter Week 10 with one or two losses, bringing about a high-level second-half race for the conference’s lone bye.

The 2020 CBA reducing conference byes from two to one made the No. 1 seed more valuable. Only one team — the 2020 Buccaneers, in a season with limited attendance — has qualified for a Super Bowl without the benefit of a bye week over the past eight seasons. Week 9 certainly benefited the Cardinals, with the Rams, Packers and Cowboys joining the Buccaneers as two-loss teams. But eight weeks remain.

The Rams also made two major efforts to tilt the scales over the past week and change, trading for Von Miller and signing Odell Beckham Jr. Will that be enough to give them their first No. 1 seed since 2001? Los Angeles (7-2) is coming off a one-sided loss to Tennessee. The team has not lost one of its impact players the way the rest of the NFC’s top tier has, though Miller and Beckham are coming off injuries sustained with their previous teams. The Rams rank in the top 10 offensively and defensively and have made a major upgrade at quarterback, with Matthew Stafford sitting first in QBR after nine games. Road games against the Cardinals, Packers and Ravens remain, however.

Responsible for handing the Rams their first defeat, the Cardinals (8-1) are the NFL’s lone one-loss team and the only NFC squad to rank in the top five on offense and defense. The Cardinals, who have not earned a No. 1 seed since home-field advantage was introduced in the mid-1970s, have seen their defense make more strides under DC Vance Joseph. Arizona ranks second in defensive DVOA, though the team is now down J.J. Watt for potentially the rest of the season. The Cards, who have seen offseason additions A.J. Green and Rodney Hudson also play key roles in their early 30s, still face the Rams and Cowboys and have two Seahawks matchups — presumably each with Russell Wilson at the controls — in their final seven games.

Last earning the NFC’s top seed five years ago, the Cowboys (6-2) are coming off a strange loss to the Broncos — one in which they trailed 30-0 — and have seen Tyron Smith run into more injury trouble. The Cowboys are also down both DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, the latter being placed on IR this week. Dallas’ defense gave up a franchise-most points last season, but the arrivals of Dan Quinn and Micah Parsons have helped the NFC East leaders move toward the middle of the pack on that side of the ball. No other NFC East team has more than three wins, but the Cowboys still have games against the Chiefs, Raiders, Saints and Cardinals.

While the Packers have gone through significant midseason turmoil, they are expected to have Aaron Rodgers back in Week 10. Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith remain on IR, however. The NFC North leaders (7-2) signed Whitney Mercilus and have seen Rashan Gary fare well in replacing Smith. Despite Smith and Alexander’s absences, the Packers rank sixth defensively. Summer signing De’Vondre Campbell (83 tackles, which lead the Packers by nearly 30) has bolstered new DC Joe Barry‘s unit as well. Green Bay also stands to receive a boost once David Bakhtiari returns following his ACL rehab. The All-Pro left tackle spent nine weeks on Green Bay’s PUP list and is not expected to play in Week 10. The Packers still have games against the Rams, Ravens and Browns.

Tampa Bay’s second Super Bowl run came from the No. 5 slot; the franchise has never secured the NFC’s top seed. But this Bucs edition’s bye path includes an inviting second-half schedule. The defending champions play just one team — the Bills — with a winning record over their final eight. The Bucs (6-2) brought back their full nucleus from last season but have seen some of their veterans run into injury trouble. They will again be without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski in Week 10, and Gronk may be facing another extended absence. Cornerback unavailability has also helped define Tampa Bay’s season, but the team is getting healthier on that front.

Which of these five teams will prevail en route to the NFC’s bye? Is there another squad that could make a stealth bid? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your NFC thoughts in the comments section.

This Date In Transactions History: Patriots Claim Martellus Bennett

November 12th, 2021 at 10:07am CST by Zachary Links

Four years ago, tight end Martellus Bennett dominated the pages of Pro Football Rumors. Bennett left the Patriots and joined the Packers in the spring of 2017, agreeing to a three-year, $21MM deal. After little in the way of production and lots of drama, the Packers dropped him in the middle of the season. The Patriots swooped in to claim him from the Packers, who had already paid out about $8MM to the tight end.

The Packers claimed that Bennett failed to disclose his lingering rotator cuff injury. Bennett, meanwhile, said that he noted the issue every week on his medical survey from the team. When the Packers put him on the waiver wire, Bennett hoped that he would go unclaimed, giving him time to recuperate.

“It’s not about, ‘Could you play?’ It’s, ‘Should you play?’ It was one of those things,” Bennett said. “Right now, I’m just like, (expletive) it. At first, I told my agent to tell no teams to claim me because I was still trying to get the surgery. So when Bill (Belichick) called and said they claimed me, I was like, ‘No (expletive) way.’ ”

It was a big (expletive) surprise for Bennett, who circled back to the Pats just months after helping them defeat the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. The Patriots — with knowledge of his injury — passed him on his physical, allowing him to suit up against the Broncos on Nov. 12, 2017.

Unfortunately, the second stint wasn’t as impactful as the first. Bennett was placed on IR a couple weeks later with shoulder and hamstring injuries. Then, in the 2018 offseason, the Pats released him, and the tight end subsequently retired from football. Bennett left the game at the age of 31, though he reportedly lobbied the Pats to bring him back once they acquired his older brother, Michael Bennett. That didn’t happen, so Bennett walked away with his Super Bowl ring, 4,500+ career yards, and plenty of cash for retirement, since the Packers lost their arbitration battle for his bonus.

This Date In Transactions History: Saints Sign Dez Bryant

November 7th, 2021 at 3:38pm CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2018, Dez Bryant agreed to join the Saints. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned for the one-time Cowboys star.

Bryant’s one-year, $1.25MM pact was modest, considering the three Pro Bowls on his resume. However, at that juncture of his career, it made sense. The former first-rounder was coming off of three straight down years, culminating in his Cowboys release.

Bryant reportedly favored the one-year deal over longer commitments — the veteran figured he could restore his value before re-entering free agency in the offseason. He famously rejected a three-year, $21MM offer from the Ravens, only to languish in free agency for the first half of 2018.

In New Orleans, Bryant was expected to provide Drew Brees with another talented weapon behind Michael Thomas, Cameron Meredith, and Tre’Quan Smith. The organization had also worked out wideouts Brandon Marshall and Kamar Aiken, but they seemingly preferred Bryant’s upside. We’ll never really know if New Orleans’ inkling was correct; only two days after signing his contract, Bryant tore his Achilles tendon at practice, ending his season before it could even begin.

Bryant hit free agency in 2019, but never signed. He finally got a second chance in 2020, joining the Ravens’ practice squad at the age of 32. Bryant eventually made it to the active roster, but registered just six receptions for 47 yards and two touchdowns.

In early 2021, Bryant said that he wanted to continue playing. But, with the season more than halfway over, we haven’t heard his name mentioned. After celebrating his 33rd birthday last week, it’s possible that we’ve seen Bryant play his final NFL snap.

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