Minor NFL Transactions: 12/21/22

Today’s minor moves:

Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers

Seattle Seahawks

Tennessee Titans

Poll: Where Will Tom Brady Play In 2023?

One of this season’s most disappointing teams, the Buccaneers still have a chance to host a playoff game. But their Tom Brady partnership may be nearing an end. The all-time great is viewed as more likely than not to be elsewhere in 2023.

This would open the door to either an unusual free agency or a second retirement. Winding down his age-45 season, Brady will likely not be sought after on the level he was in 2020. His career-low QBR (since the stat’s 2006 introduction, at least), lowest yards per attempt figure since 2002 (6.3) and age will undoubtedly give teams pause. But if the 15-time Pro Bowler wants to keep pushing the quarterback age boundary — a recently discussed scenario — there stands to be a market.

It still makes sense to include the 49ers here. They passed on a true pursuit in 2020, when Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off a season in which he piloted the team to Super Bowl LIV, but Brady was loosely linked to seeking a move to his native Bay Area during his mini-retirement this offseason. The Bucs shut down the prospect of trading Brady’s rights anywhere. San Francisco has an again-injured Garoppolo tied to a restructured deal that prevents a franchise tag — a similar arrangement to Brady, who also cannot be tagged thanks to his 2022 restructure — and Trey Lance will enter 2023 having only played one full season in his five post-high school years. The 49ers boast a rare skill-position trio that includes three All-Pros, and their situation could open the door to Lance spending a year learning behind arguably the greatest to ever do it.

Josh McDaniels looks like he will make it to a second Raiders season, even though his first has not gone as hoped. McDaniels taking over as Patriots OC led to Brady morphing from a promising young quarterback to a superstar, and he was Brady’s OC for 11 years. The Raiders have a narrow window to trade Derek Carr, who will see $40.5MM guaranteed on Day 3 of the 2023 league year. A Carr-Davante Adams breakup might not go over well among the longtime friends, but McDaniels and fellow ex-Patriots staffer Dave Ziegler are calling the shots. The Raiders pursued Brady in 2020, and he famously had a spirited reaction to the then-Jon Gruden-led team backing off.

Tua Tagovailoa has a rather vocal cast of supporters, and the Dolphins did just pay a stiff penalty for attempting to bring Brady and Sean Payton to town. Payton seems out of the question now, with Mike McDaniel faring well in his first year, and Tagovailoa still sits second in QBR. The Dolphins have one of the great speed-receiver duos in NFL history, and vice chairman Bruce Beal is on the TB12 board. Though, Beal’s central role in the tampering scandal is believed to have affected his standing with the team. Would Stephen Ross try to land one of the assets that ultimately cost a first-round pick?

While it would look quite strange to see Brady with the Jets, they have both young weaponry and a vastly improved defense. That combination wooed Brady to Tampa. Timeline-wise, the Jets mirror the 49ers at the QB position. They roster the passer taken one spot ahead of Lance (Zach Wilson), though the Jets have more intel on their top-three QB pick than the Niners do theirs. Mike White is a free agent at season’s end, and the team is already being connected to veteran options — Garoppolo and Carr among them. Brady probably should be at least mentioned here.

Brady and Mike Vrabel played together for nine seasons, and the Titans were part of the free agency derby two years ago. They bowed out before it ultimately came down to a Bucs-or-Chargers call, and Ryan Tannehill has one season remaining on the extension the Titans gave him shortly after their Brady pursuit ended. The Titans cannot match the above-referenced teams for weaponry, however.

Bill Belichick did not exactly equip Mac Jones for a second-year leap, naming a career defensive coach (Matt Patricia) as de facto OC. Jones has regressed in Year 2, and there was a brief QB controversy with fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe. Uncertainty about the 2021 first-rounder’s long-term standing has entered the equation. If LeBron James could return to Cleveland, Brady rejoining Belichick and Robert Kraft for a farewell season should at least be floated. Brady and Kraft remain close, as evidenced by the Bucs QB traveling to the Patriots owner’s wedding during a Bucs road trip earlier this season. But the Patriots would need to get to work on receiving help. They almost certainly would not be the favorites if Brady decided to play a 24th season.

Reports of friction between Brady and Bruce Arians and Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have emerged over the past two seasons. Arians’ exit has undoubtedly affected this Bucs iteration, which has dealt with issues along its offensive line throughout the year as well. But the Bucs have fallen from the second-ranked scoring offense in 2021 — a season in which Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yards and 43 TDs — to 28th. The Bucs’ chances at winning a terrible NFC South aside, they may soon face the prospect of the Brady bill coming due. The Bucs not re-signing Brady before his contract expires in March would mean a $35.1MM dead-money hit due to the void years on his deal.

Brady is the only 45-year-old starting QB in NFL history, and retirement was believed to be the direction he would go at this season’s outset. As he plays out a down season, there will be more calls for a true retirement this time. A 10-year deal to be FOX’s lead analyst awaits.

As this offseason showed, teams are more willing to follow through with big QB swings. Complex QB offseasons have been the 2020s norm. More teams could potentially enter the mix, if they are convinced Brady’s struggles this year can be attributed more to his circumstances and less on a decline. Unless Brady calls it quits immediately after this season, the topic of his 2023 employer will gain steam. How will it end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this oft-discussed player in the comments section.

Which team will Tom Brady play for in 2023?

  • He will retire 27% (927)
  • San Francisco 49ers 21% (738)
  • Las Vegas Raiders 15% (516)
  • New England Patriots 14% (500)
  • New York Jets 6% (220)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6% (197)
  • Miami Dolphins 4% (156)
  • Tennessee Titans 4% (136)
  • Another team (specify in comments) 3% (95)

Total votes: 3,485

Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order

Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.

At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.

The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:

  1. Houston Texans: 1-12-1
  2. Chicago Bears: 3-11
  3. Detroit Lions (via Rams)
  4. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
  5. Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
  6. Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
  7. Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
  8. Carolina Panthers: 5-9
  9. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
  10. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
  11. Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
  12. Houston Texans (via Browns)
  13. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
  14. Green Bay Packers: 6-8
  15. Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
  16. New England Patriots: 7-7
  17. New York Jets: 7-7
  18. Detroit Lions: 7-7
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
  20. Tennessee Titans: 7-7
  21. Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
  22. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
  23. New York Giants: 8-5-1
  24. Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
  25. Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
  26. Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
  27. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
  28. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
  29. Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
  30. Buffalo Bills: 11-3
  31. Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1

Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom BradySean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.

Titans Sign QB Joshua Dobbs Off Lions’ Practice Squad

For the second time in a month, the Lions lost a quarterback off their practice squad. The Titans are signing Joshua Dobbs, according to his agent (on Twitter).

This move follows the Bears’ signing of Tim Boyle late last month. Tennessee’s Dobbs move casts more doubt on Ryan Tannehill‘s Week 16 availability. The fourth-year Titans starter aggravated his ankle injury last week, and although he returned to the Chargers game not too long after going down, he is believed to be facing an uphill battle to play this week.

Dobbs, 27, will join Tannehill and Malik Willis on the Titans’ 53-man roster. Because he is being signed off another team’s practice squad, the well-traveled backup must remain on Tennessee’s active roster for at least three weeks. The Titans will be Dobbs’ third team this year.

The Browns signed Dobbs in April and used him as Jacoby Brissett‘s backup for much of this season, but the team released him ahead of Deshaun Watson‘s first game back from his suspension. In the wake of the Bears’ Boyle poaching, the Lions added Dobbs to their P-squad earlier this month.

This transaction will bring Dobbs back to Tennessee. The 27-year-old passer became a fourth-round draft choice after playing for the Volunteers from 2013-16. The Steelers took Dobbs in the 2017 draft, and he has spent much of his career with the team. Dobbs has been a career reserve option, appearing in six games — all with the Steelers — off the bench. He has thrown 17 career passes. This move will provide the Titans, who do not have a quarterback on their taxi squad, with some depth.

NFL Practice Squad Updates: 12/20/22

Today’s practice squad transactions:

Arizona Cardinals

  • Signed: QB James Morgan
  • Released: QB Carson Strong

Baltimore Ravens

Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears

Dallas Cowboys

Denver Broncos

  • Signed: G Parker Ferguson, DB Devon Key
  • Released: LB Harvey Langi

Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks

  • Signed: DT Jarrod Hewitt

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill Unlikely To Play In Week 16

Injury trouble defined the second half of Ryan Tannehill‘s Dolphins run, but the former first-round pick had enjoyed a good run of health during his first three seasons with the Titans. That has come to an end during a turbulent 2022 season for the AFC South leaders.

Tennessee’s starting quarterback aggravated his ankle injury in Los Angeles, leaving the field on a cart Sunday. Although the 11th-year passer returned to action at less than 100%, his status is very much in doubt for Week 16. Tannehill is facing an uphill battle to suit up against the Texans on Christmas Eve, Tom Pelissero of NFL.com notes (video link).

While the Titans have lost Tannehill’s past four starts and went 1-1 with Malik Willis under center, the latter’s raw form as a passer has significantly limited Tennessee’s offense during his cameos this season. The Titans beat the Texans with Willis last month, when Tannehill missed time with this ankle problem, but the third-round pick completed 6 of 10 passes for 55 yards in the game. As the Titans built a lead on the Chiefs despite being heavy underdogs in Week 9, Willis was just 5 of 16 in the game and struggled throughout the second half.

Tannehill came back in Week 10 to lead the Titans to wins over the Broncos and Packers, but Tennessee’s offense — one that has rarely received notable contributions from its injury-plagued receiving corps — has been unable to match playoff contenders during the team’s four-game skid. For the season, Tannehill has thrown 13 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He has upped his yards per attempt (7.8) from last season (7.0), but his QBR is down. The 34-year-old veteran ranks 23rd in that metric exiting Week 15.

The Titans hold a one-game lead on the Jaguars but must face both the Cowboys and Jags in the season’s final two weeks. FiveThirtyEight still gives Tennessee a 57% chance to hold off Jacksonville in the AFC South, but Tannehill’s availability will be crucial for the team to do so.

Titans Place RB Dontrell Hilliard On IR

The Titans made a number of moves today as they prepared for their Week 15 matchup against the Chargers. Most notably, the team placed running back Dontrell Hilliard on injured reserve and activated cornerback Lonnie Johnson Jr. from IR.

Hilliard suffered a neck injury in last Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars. The running back has turned into a reliable offensive option during his second season in Tennessee, serving as the team’s primary pass-catching back (21 receptions for 177 yards and four touchdowns). As Titans reporter Paul Kuharsky notes on Twitter, the team doesn’t really have a replacement for Hilliard on the roster. Rookies Hassan Haskins and Julius Chestnut will now be relied on to spell Derrick Henry.

After getting waived by the Chiefs during the preseason, Johnson caught on with the Titans. He got into eight games for Tennessee, with the majority of his playing time coming on special teams. The defensive back suffered a hamstring injury during the Titans’ Week 10 win over the Broncos, landing him on IR. The former second-round pick started 19 games for the Texans through his first three seasons in the NFL.

The Titans also signed guard Jordan Roos, cornerback Davontae Harris, and Chestnut to the active roster and promoted wideout Mason Kinsey and linebacker Andre Smith from the practice squad. Tennessee also placed wide receiver C.J. Board on IR. Board suffered a rib injury earlier this month and will now miss the rest of the regular season. Since joining the active roster in November, Board has served as the team’s primary punt returner.

AFC South Rumors: Gannon, Caserio, Colts

Lovie Smith joins Denver’s Nathaniel Hackett as the first-year coaches on the shakiest ground. The Texans are 1-11-1, on pace to finish with a worse record than they did under Nick Caserio‘s first HC hire (David Culley). Smith following Culley as a one-and-done is on the radar, though the prospect of Caserio being allowed to hire a third coach in three years is also uncertain. If Caserio does fire Smith and is granted permission to stay on and hire another coach, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com notes Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon will be back on the radar for the job.

Gannon was one of the Texans’ finalists for the Houston HC position this year, and Fowler adds Caserio was impressed by the then-rookie DC. The Texans bringing Gannon back into the finalist discussion might be more difficult in 2023, with Gannon’s Eagles defense making strides. This could well lead to more interested teams; Gannon already interviewed for three jobs (Houston, Denver, Minnesota) this year. The Texans did interview Josh McCown in back-to-back offseasons. Smith was not viewed as a finalist until the end of the process, leaving Gannon in Philly and McCown out of the league.

Here is the latest from the AFC South:

  • Jim Irsay said last month he wanted Jeff Saturday to stay on as the Coltsnext full-time HC. Saturday has said he will pursue that position, should Irsay want to interview him. While an interview seems a certainty, Irsay couched his Saturday support by saying there are “great candidates out there.” “I’m looking forward to the interview process,” Irsay said this week. “I think Jeff’s a candidate, but there’s a lot of great candidates out there. I think there’s a lot of great candidates in college. I think the pool needs to be broadened somewhat more. There’s some great college coaches that may be capable. There’s some unknown coaches that may be capable.” Saturday is 1-3 in his start as Indy’s interim coach.
  • In the event the Texans go the other way with Caserio, the Titans could be a landing spot for the longtime Bill Belichick right-hand man. A GM who spoke with the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora indicated Tennessee would be an ideal fit for Caserio, given Vrabel’s Patriots background. Caserio was in New England’s front office during throughout Vrabel’s nine-season Pats tenure. Amy Adams Strunk said Vrabel will be included in the Titans’ next GM search process, and while it might look strange to see an exec who has overseen a woeful two-year stretch (Houston is 5-24-1 under Caserio) in the AFC South be considered for another top front office gig so soon, Vrabel’s presence will be important for how Tennessee proceeds.
  • Hall of Famer Kevin Mawae will hold more responsibility on Saturday’s staff going forward. The Colts‘ assistant offensive line coach will transition to the role of tight ends coach, Saturday said. Mawae will replace Klayton Adams, whom KCRA’s Michelle Dapper notes is leaving to become Stanford’s O-line coach (Twitter link). Adams will join new Cardinal HC Troy Taylor in Palo Alto. Adams, 39, coached at the college level for 14 years prior to joining Frank Reich‘s staff in 2019. Inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2019, Mawae is in his second season on the Colts’ staff.

Minor NFL Transactions: 12/15/22

Today’s minor moves:

Las Vegas Raiders

New York Giants

New York Jets

Seattle Seahawks

Tennessee Titans

 

Igwebuike is being elevated for the second time this season. Starting rookie running back Kenneth Walker has returned to the lineup but running back and return man DeeJay Dallas missed a second straight week of practice, meaning Igwebuike will likely have return duties while backing up Walker and Travis Homer.

Smith will be undergoing surgery for a nagging bone spur, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. The surgery will necessitate a recovery period of about four months, so Smith’s 2022 campaign has come to an end.

Parks re-signed with the Jets this offseason after being claimed by the team last December and starting two games. Despite starting another game this season, Parks has spent most of time on special teams in 11 games this year.

Minor NFL Transactions: 12/14/22

Here are today’s minor transactions from around the league:

Arizona Cardinals

Cleveland Browns

Dallas Cowboys

Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans

Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots

New York Giants

Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans

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