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Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

By Dallas Robinson | at July 25, 2017 6:51 pm

The Cowboys appeared doomed when Tony Romo suffered a back injury during Week 3 of the 2016 preseason, but fourth-round rookie quarterback Dak Prescott — combined with an excellent running game — led Dallas to an NFC-best 13-3 record and a Divisional Round appearance. With Romo retired, the Cowboys headed into the offseason with clear needs on defense that could be filled either through free agency or the draft.

Notable signings:

Terrance Williams, WR: Four years, $17MM. $9.5MM guaranteed.
Nolan Carroll, CB: Three years, $10MM. $3MM guaranteed.
Jonathan Cooper, G: One year, $2MM. $500K guaranteed.
Stephen Paea, DL: One year, $2MM. $500K guaranteed.
Brice Butler, WR: One year, $1.1MM. $300K signing bonus.
Byron Bell, OL: One year, $2MM. $250K guaranteed. $500K available via incentives.
Damontre Moore, DE: Two years, $1.665MM. $100K guaranteed.
Kellen Moore, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $100K guaranteed.
Robert Blanton, S: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Darren McFadden, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Justin Durant, LB: Contract terms unknown.

Although Terrance Williams posted the fewest receiving yards of his career in 2016, underlying metrics show that the 27-year-old actually produced an above-average season. Among wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Williams finished 11th with a 72.1% catch rate. The former third-round pick ranked 17th in Football Outsiders‘ DYAR (which measures total value) and fourth in DVOA (per-play value), and while run-blocking isn’t that important a skill for a wide receiver, Williams contributed in that realm of offense as well, finishing No. 22 in the run game, according to Pro Football Focus.

But despite that production and his relative youth, Williams re-signed with the Cowboys on a deal that pays him just $4.25MM per season. Reports prior to free agency indicated Williams could score an annual salary in the $6-8MM range, but Williams instead landed a per annum average that’s below the likes of Travis Benjamin, Markus Wheaton, Rishard Matthews, and Jermaine Kearse. Clearly, soft factors could be at play here, as Williams indicated he took less money to stay in Dallas because of his comfort in the locker room, and there’s some incalculable benefit to playing on a young, contending team. But the Cowboys found a value in Williams, allowing them to spend cap space elsewhere.

Dallas made a concerted effort to retain the skill players on an offense that ranked third in DVOA a year ago, and that included re-signing veteran running back Darren McFadden to a cheap contract. McFadden, 29, was sidelined by injury for the majority of the 2016 campaign, but he’s still a high-quality backup who — along with Alfred Morris — will allow the Cowboys to tread water if and when Ezekiel Elliott is suspended. In 2015, McFadden, buoyed by the league’s best offensive line, topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in his career while averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

Kellen Moore was also re-signed to act as a reserve, but it’s very surprising that the Cowboys haven’t entered the free agent market to find a more experienced backup quarterback. While Dallas did express interest in Josh McCown, it hasn’t brought in another veteran to compete with Moore, and may be content to allow the former Boise State Bronco to be Dak Prescott‘s No. 2. Moore, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2012, has only attempted 104 regular season passes in five NFL seasons. The best signal-callers remaining on the open market include Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder, Shaun Hill, and Robert Griffin III.

While the Cowboys brought back the majority of their offensive skill players, the club did sustain two losses along the offensive line in Ronald Leary (free agency) and Doug Free (retirement). Dallas plans to move La’el Collins to right tackle, meaning former first-round pick Jonathan Cooper will get the first crack at left guard. Despite being selected seventh overall in 2013, Cooper has never been a full-time starter through four NFL seasons. As such, it’s fair to wonder if Byron Bell, another free agent signee, will get a shot to overtake Cooper on the left side.

Dallas didn’t use the free agent period to overhaul a defensive unit that ranked 17th in DVOA last season, but it did bring Nolan Carroll aboard, signing the former Eagles corner to a three-year deal. Carroll is now on the wrong side of 30 and wasn’t effective in 2016 (No. 92 CB among 109 qualifiers, per PFF), so he won’t be the answer for a secondary that lost the majority of its starters. But the Cowboys can get out the Carroll deal after one season and $4MM, so it’s a worthwhile risk to add the veteran to a beleaguered defensive backfield.

Defensive tackle Stephen Paea is a fair bet to improve upon the 321 snaps he played for Cleveland last year, and the 29-year-old might be the best interior lineman on the Cowboys’ roster. Cedric Thornton, signed to a four-year deal last spring, seems to have been miscast as a 4-3 defensive tackle, while Maliek Collins struggled mightily during his 2016 rookie season. Paea, meanwhile, has been quietly effective for several years, and should help a front seven that Pro Football Focus ranks 26th heading into the regular season.

Brandon Carr, CB
Barry Church, S
Morris Claiborne, CB
Jack Crawford, DE
Ryan Davis, DE
Lance Dunbar, RB
Gavin Escobar, TE
Doug Free, T: Retired
Andrew Gachkar, LB
Ronald Leary, G
Terrell McClain, DT
Tony Romo, QB: Retired
Mark Sanchez, QB
Lucky Whitehead: Waived
J.J. Wilcox, S

After months of trade speculation, Tony Romo officially announced his retirement and signed on as a CBS commentator. While the Cowboys seemed intent on acquiring draft pick compensation for Romo if he decided to continue his career, Dallas instead saved $12MM in 2017 salary cap space by designating Romo as a post-June 1 release. While that move gave the Cowboys more financial breathing room, it also means Dallas doesn’t control Romo’s rights if he ever makes an NFL comeback. Romo recently indicated he’s “done” playing football, but many NFL clubs reportedly believe Romo will suit up again at some point in the future.

Although Romo’s retirement represents the loss of a franchise icon, his absence on the field shouldn’t have a significant impact if Dak Prescott can repeat his 2016 production. Changes that could affect Dallas’ 2017 success, however, include those along the offensive line, where Doug Free retired and Ronald Leary joined the Broncos in free agency. The Cowboys have already made long-term commitments to Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick, and will likely soon reach an extension with Zack Martin, as well, so it would’ve been difficult to make a competitive offer for Leary.

While Free was probably the link weak link along the Cowboys’ front five, he was still a starting-caliber player (No. 40 offensive tackle in 2016 per PFF), and his decision to hang up his clears forced the club to assess its options to replace him. For now, the plan seems to be to shift La’el Collins from left guard to right tackle, while allowing Jonathan Cooper to take over left guard. Overall, the swap of Leary/Free for Collins/Cooper is a downgrade, and it’s no longer apparent that Dallas fields the NFL’s best offensive line.

Even more impactful than changes along the Cowboys’ offensive line will be the team’s changes in the secondary, where Dallas lost four of its top seven defenders. Brandon Carr, Barry Church, J.J. Wilcox, and Morris Claiborne all played more then 400 defensive snaps a year ago, contributing to a pass defense that ranked 18th in DVOA. While no member of that group figures was a massive defection on his own, losing all four at once figures to have a negative effect on the Cowboys’ ability to slow opposing passing attacks. While Dallas has options to fill in at corner, the team may have trouble replacing Church/Wilcox at safety — at present special-teamer Jeff Heath and free agent Robert Blanton look like the favorites to take over snaps at safety.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 191; S Xavier Woods) from the Jets in exchange for a 2018 fifth-round pick.
Acquired a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 216; CB Marquez White) and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 239; WR Noah Brown) from the Patriots in exchange for a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 211; T Conor McDermott).

Draft picks:

1-28: Taco Charlton, DE (Michigan)
2-60: Chidobe Awuzie, CB (Colorado)
3-92: Jourdan Lewis, CB (Michigan)
4-133: Ryan Switzer, WR (North Carolina)
6-191: Xavier Woods, S (Louisiana Tech)
6-216: Marquez White, CB (Florida State)
7-228: Joey Ivie, DT (Florida)
7-239: Noah Brown, WR (Ohio State)
7-246: Jordan Carrell, DE (Colorado)

Though the Cowboys didn’t use free agency to improve their defense on a large scale, Dallas attacked the defensive side of the ball in the draft, using its first three selections on defenders. Taco Charlton should step immediately into the starting lineup opposite fellow defensive end Tyrone Crawford, and give a boost to a Dallas pass rush that already ranked 12th in adjusted sack rate. Charlton, who posted 10 sacks during his final season at Michigan, is a “high-impact defensive end with all-pro potential is his ceiling,” according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, and he figures to see the most action of any Cowboys rookie in 2016.

Dallas also went after several corners in the draft, and while Chidobe Awuzie was the higher pick, Jourdan Lewis might be the more talented player. Lewis, a Michigan product, fell in the draft due to an alleged domestic violence incident, but now that he’s been found not guilt, he should be able to contribute during his rookie campaign. Lewis allowed a reception only once every 21.8 snaps in 2016, good for sixth-best among this year’s draft class, per Pro Football Focus, which ranked Lewis as the No. 3 corner available.

The Cowboys turned to offense in the fourth round to draft Ryan Switzer, who is essentially a replica of incumbent slot receiver Cole Beasley, at least from a stature standpoint. Both stand 5’8″, while Switzer weighs in at 181 pounds and Beasley comes in at 174. As their player profiles at MockDraftable show, however, the pair performed very differently at the combine. Beasley finished in the 81st and 83rd percentile in vertical jump and broad jump, respectively, while Switzer ranked in just the 13th and 23rd percentiles in those same categories, an indication that Switzer may not be as explosive as Beasley.

Extensions and restructures:

Jason Witten, TE: Extended through 2021. Four years, $26MM. $3.6MM available via incentives.
La’el Collins, T: Extended through 2019. Two years, $15.4MM. $9.5MM guaranteed.
Sean Lee, LB: Restructured contract. Created $5.15MM in cap space by converting 2017 base salary of $7.725MM into a signing bonus.

Jason Witten‘s extension is one of the odder contractual cases in recent memory, as the veteran tight end didn’t receive any guaranteed money as part of the new deal. Additionally, the Cowboys didn’t pick up any cap space through the extension, as the contract only added extra years to the end of Witten’s current deal and didn’t contain a signing bonus.

Dallas can release Witten without any dead money accruing once the 2017 concludes, so Witten essentially signed away his rights to the club without securing any sort of leverage for himself. Perhaps Witten simply has no interest in ever playing for another team, and at age-35, wants to lock in his future salaries to help the Cowboys with their cap. Of course, Dallas can still restructure Witten’s deal at any point, converting base salaries into bonuses to create cap space.

Other:

Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for G Zack Martin ($9.341MM).
Claimed QB Zac Dysert off waivers from the Cardinals.
Learned DE David Irving was suspended four games (PEDs).
Signed 13 undrafted college free agents.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Dez Bryant, WR: $17,000,000
Jason Witten, TE: $12,262,000
Tony Romo, QB: $10,700,000 (dead money)
Tyrone Crawford, DL: $10,350,000
Tyron Smith, T: $8,820,000
Sean Lee: $7,300,000
Ezekiel Elliott, RB: $5,671,895
Orlando Scandrick, CB: $5,281,021
Travis Frederick, C: $4,531,000
Cole Beasley, WR: $4,500,000

With enviable talent on offense, and a serviceable defense under coordinator Rod Marinelli, the Cowboys should continue to pursue division titles in the NFC East for years to come. Losing key players in the secondary, changes along the offensive line, and regression to the mean from Dak Prescott could lead Dallas to take a step back in 2017, but the Cowboys still figure to be in contention when the season concludes.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PFR Originals: 7/16/17 – 7/23/17

By Dallas Robinson | at July 23, 2017 1:51 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

With the 2017 regular season only two months away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered three teams this week:
The Redskins failed to sign franchise-tagged quarterback Kirk Cousins to a long-term extension last week, meaning he’ll now play out the 2017 campaign on a one-year tender. With that in mind, Connor Byrne asked PFR readers if Cousins will be back in Washington next season, either on a third consecutive franchise tag or on a multi-year deal. The response has been clear, as more than three-quarters of voters believe Cousins will be playing elsewhere in 2018.

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Offseason In Review: Seattle Seahawks

By Dallas Robinson | at July 22, 2017 5:40 pm

After finishing first in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA efficiency metric in each season from 2012-15, the Seahawks fell to ninth in 2016. The fact that that ranking was Seattle’s lowest since 2011 speaks to the consistency of the organization, especially at the top (John Schneider and Pete Carroll each finished among the NFL’s top three general managers and head coaches, respectively, in Patrick Daughtery of Rotoworld’s excellent leadership lists). The Seahawks have advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs in each of the past five campaigns, and have shown a remarkable ability to lock up core players in order to maintain their run of success.

That’s not to say Seattle didn’t have areas to address this offseason, however, so let’s take a look at how Seattle fared:

Notable signings:

Luke Joeckel, T: One year, $8MM. $7MM guaranteed.
Eddie Lacy, RB: One year, $4.25MM. $2.865MM guaranteed. $1.3MM available via incentives.
Luke Willson, TE: One year, $1.8MM. Fully guaranteed.
DeShawn Shead, CB: One year, $1.2MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Bradley McDougald, S: One year, $1.8MM. $750K guaranteed.
Neiko Thorpe, S: Two years, $1.75MM. $600K guaranteed.
Michael Wilhoite, LB: One year, $1.55MM. $500K guaranteed.
Oday Aboushi, G: One year, $975K. $200K guaranteed.
Terence Garvin, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Austin Davis, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $50K guaranteed.
Blair Walsh, K: One year, $1.1MM.
David Bass, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Arthur Brown, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Marcus Cromartie, CB: One year, $690K.
Dion Jordan, DE: One year, $640K.

As I noted when assessing the Seahawks’ most pressing needs heading into the offseason, Seattle’s offensive line could have been listed first, second, and third on a list of the club’s glaring weaknesses. After ranking 25th in adjusted sack rate and 26th in adjusted line yards in 2016, the Seahawks and general manager John Schneider addressed the problem in free agency — something they didn’t do a year ago — by adding former No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel on a one-year pact.

Joeckel received $8MM from Seattle, with $7MM of that total coming as a full guarantee. It’s an astonishing figure for a player who’s been considered a complete bust, and it’s hard to believe Joeckel was drawing enough interest to force the Seahawks to land at that number. Other offensive linemen earning ~$8MM include Marshal Yanda, Mike Iupati, Morgan Moses, and Brandon Brooks, all of whom are in a different stratosphere from Joeckel in terms of production. Former first-round selection D.J. Fluker scored only $3MM from the Giants on a single-season deal this spring, and Joeckel should have come in around the same amount.

Even more surprising is that Joeckel may not even play left tackle! The Seahawks are reportedly considering placing George Fant, who graded as Pro Football Focus‘ single-worst tackle in the NFL last season, on the blindside, meaning Joeckel would likely stick at guard, or perhaps even be forced to act as a reserve. Either way, Seattle’s financial commitment to Joeckel makes no sense if he’s not at least starting at left tackle, as his $8MM salary would make him the 11th-highest-paid guard in the league.

After securing the No. 2 pick in the 2013 draft in Joeckel, the Seahawks also brought in the third overall selection from that draft: defensive end Dion Jordan, who’s been an even larger disappointment during his NFL tenure than Joeckel. The 27-year-old Jordan hasn’t played in a game since December 2014, with PED-related suspensions and knee issues delaying his return to the field. Seattle’s gamble on Jordan is more palatable than its Joeckel bet, especially given that Jordan only inked a minimum salary deal with no guaranteed money. If Jordan does earn a roster spot and perform well, the Seahawks can control him through 2018 as a restricted free agent.

While the Joeckel and Jordan risks are based on performance concerns, the main uncertainly with cornerback DeShawn Shead is his health, as he’s coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 15. After being non-tendered and then re-signed, Shead is expected to begin the season on the physically unable to perform list, as head coach Pete Carroll said in March he’d be “really surprised” if Shead was able to suit up for Week 1. A 15-game starter a season ago, Shead played more than 1,000 defensive snaps and graded as the league’s No. 37 corner, per PFF.

Joining Shead in the defensive backfield will be Bradley McDougald, an excellent value signing by the Seahawks at cost of only $1.8MM. McDougald, who started 31 games for the Buccaneers over the past two years, will serve as a third safety for Seattle, but could conceivably be forced into action based on injury questions with the Seahawks’ starts. Earl Thomas is expected to be ready for the season opener as he recovers from a broken leg, but complications could certainly arise. Kam Chancellor, meanwhile, is working his way back from multiple ankle surgeries and wasn’t yet at full speed as of March.

Seattle didn’t make many other notable additions on defense, although it did load up on linebackers/defensive backs with special teams experience. While the Seahawks graded among the top half of the league in special teams DVOA, their No. 13 ranking was a ten-spot drop from 2015. Perhaps with the intent of pushing that ranking back up, the Seahawks signed Terence Garvin, Michael Wilhoite, David Bass, Neiko Thorpe, and Arthur Brown, all of whom played on more than 45% of their respective team’s special teams snaps in 2016. Not every member of that cadre will end up making Seattle’s roster, but as a group, it’s a cheap investment with an eye towards special teams improvement.

The Seahawks’ most high-profile signing was former Packers running back Eddie Lacy, whom Seattle landed on a one-year contract worth $4.25MM. Lacy hasn’t posted a complete, healthy season since 2014, and given that his conditioning has been questioned, the Seahawks inserted weight clauses into Lacy’s deal. He passed his first weigh-in last month, earning $55K for tipping the scales below 250 pounds. Lacy, who is still only 26 years old, will join a Seattle backfield that also includes Thomas Rawls, C.J. Prosise, Alex Collins, and Mike Davis. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times indicated last month that Lacy and Rawls will likely split basedown touches while Prosise handles passing game work.

After considering Colin Kaepernick, the Seahawks landed on Austin Davis as their free agent quarterback addition. Davis hasn’t played since 2015, and has only attempted only 378 career passes, but it’s not even clear that he’ll in fact be Russell Wilson‘s direct backup. Trevone Boykin, a 2016 undrafted free agent who served behind Wilson last year, has avoided jail time for at least one legal incident and isn’t expected to be suspended by the NFL. If he’s available, Boykin will likely relegate Davis to the No. 3 job (or off the roster).

Brock Coyle, LB: Non-tendered
Garry Gilliam: Seahawks declined to match 49ers RFA offer sheet
Steven Hauschka, K
Devin Hester, WR
John Jenkins, DT
Jeron Johnson, S
Kelcie McCray, S
Tony McDaniel, DT
Damontre Moore, DE
Mike Morgan, LB
Troymaine Pope, RB: Waived
Tyvis Powell, S: Waived
Marcel Reece, FB
Mohammed Seisay, CB: Non-tendered
Bradley Sowell, T
Steven Terrell, S: Non-tendered
Will Tukuafu, FB
Brandon Williams, TE

In terms of losses, the Seahawks had a fairly nondescript offseason, as none of the club’s defections posted an approximate value (Pro Football Reference’s catch-all metric) above three. Kicker Steven Hauschka is the most notable player who won’t return to Seattle, and his loss was expected after the Seahawks signed former Vikings kicker Blair Walsh. While Hauschka finished seventh among kickers with an 89% field goal percentage, he converted only 83% of his extra point attempts, 32nd in the league. Still, the Seahawks were seven points above average on kicks a year ago, per Football Outsiders, so Hauschka will be missed.

Unlike Hauschka, Garry Gilliam wasn’t an unrestricted free agent, but he’ll still be leaving the Pacific Northwest after inking a restricted free agent offer sheet with the division-rival 49ers. The Seahawks didn’t get any draft pick compensation since they tendered the formerly undrafted Gilliam at the original round level, but Seattle didn’t seem all that interested in retaining Gilliam anyway. San Francisco’s offer to Gilliam was only $400K more than what he would’ve earned with the Seahawks, but given that he ranked as a bottom-10 offensive tackle per PFF, Seattle didn’t bother to make up the difference.

Mike Morgan, 29, was nominally the Seahawks’ starting strongside linebacker in 2016, but because Seattle spent so much time in nickel, Morgan’s defensive snaps were limited. Morgan’s contributions were further restricted by injury last year, as he spent eight weeks on injured reserve while dealing with a sports hernia. All told, Morgan played only 138 defensive snaps and posted just 10 tackles. He’s auditioned for the Jaguars and Saints, but has yet to land a contract.

Trades:

Acquired a 2018 fifth-round pick from the Raiders in exchange for RB Marshawn Lynch and a 2018 sixth-round pick.
Acquired a 2017 first-round pick (No. 31), a 2017 third-round pick (No. 95; S Delano Hill), and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 249; RB Chris Carson) from the Falcons in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 25; DE Takkarist McKinley).
Acquired a 2017 second-round pick (No. 34) and a 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 111; S Tedric Thompson) from the 49ers in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 31; LB Reuben Foster).
Acquired a 2017 second-round pick (No. 35; DT Malik McDowell) and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 187; S Mike Tyson) from the Jaguars in exchange for a 2017 second-round pick (No. 34; T Cam Robinson).

Had Marshawn Lynch un-retired with the intention of playing for the Seahawks, Seattle likely would have released him and attempted to recoup $2.5MM of his signing bonus from 2016. Lynch, unsurprisingly, had no interest in paying back that money, while the Seahawks couldn’t afford Lynch’s $9MM cap charge on their books. In the end, Seattle worked out a trade with the Raiders, shipping Lynch to Oakland in exchange for a minimal draft pick swap. The talks were likely aided by the close relationship between Seahawks general manager John Schneider and Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie, each of whom are former Packers staffers.

For the fourth time in five years, Seattle didn’t have a first-round selection, and this time it was because of another trade. The Seahawks acquired 130 cents on the dollar by simply moving from pick No. 25 to No. 31, according to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective‘s trade value calculator. Then, they flipped that choice for 131 cents on the dollar, before ultimately moving to No. 35 for 109 cents on the dollar.

While the original move from No. 25 to No. 31 made sense, it’s fair to argue Seattle should have sat tight at No. 31, especially given the amount of offensive linemen still available. Clearly, hindsight is 20/20 and the Seahawks didn’t know where prospects were going to land, but Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramczyk came off the board at No. 32, while Seattle gave away No. 34 to the Jaguars, who selected Alabama’s Cam Robinson. Either of those players would have been a welcome addition to the Seahawks’ porous front five.

Draft picks:

2-35: Malik McDowell, DT (Michigan State)
2-58: Ethan Pocic, OL (LSU)
3-90: Shaquill Griffin, CB (UCF)
3-95: Delano Hill, S (Michigan)
3-102: Nazair Jones, DL (North Carolina)
3-106: Amara Darboh, WR (Michigan)
4-111: Tedric Thompson, S (Colorado)
6-187: Mike Tyson, S (Cincinnati)
6-210: Justin Senior, T (Mississippi State)
7-226: David Moore, WR (East Central Oklahoma)
7-249: Chris Carson, RB (Oklahoma)

The interior of the Seattle’s defensive line didn’t fare as well as its edge players in 2016, as defensive tackles Tony McDaniel, Jarran Reed, and Ahtyba Rubin graded as the league’s No. 52, No. 91, and No. 113 interior defenders among 127 qualifiers, respectively, according to PFF. McDaniel is now a member of the Saints, and while Reed should improve as he enters his second NFL campaign, he’s more of a run-stuffer than a penetrator. The Seahawks needed a big body in the middle capable of shooting gaps and getting after quarterbacks, and Malik McDowell has the potential to be that player.

As Sam Gold of Field Gulls mentioned in his post-draft analysis of the McDowell pick, the former Michigan State Spartan will likely play the weakside defensive tackle role in Seattle, with taking down opposing signal-callers serving as his main goal. Gold compares McDowell to Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunalp, while I see a bit of Kansas City’s Chris Jones. McDowell faced effort questions during his collegiate career, but if he can maximize his talents at the professional level, he could be a steal for the Seahawks.

Shaquill Griffin, a favorite of Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson, may be asked to step into the Legion of Boom relatively quickly, as he could play outside in nickel packages while Jeremy Lane slides into the slot. Among collegiate corners who played at least 250 snaps a season ago, Griffin earned the fifth-highest grade from PFF. LSU’s Ethan Pocic, meanwhile, is a “flexible, natural athlete” who can play all five spots on the offensive line, per Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. He should be Seattle’s top reserve lineman during his rookie season.

Other:

Claimed RB Mike Davis off waivers from the 49ers.
Signed eight undrafted rookie free agents.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Russell Wilson, QB: $18,800,000
Richard Sherman, CB: $13,361,000
Michael Bennett, DL: $10,756,250
Earl Thomas, S: $10,400,000
Jimmy Graham, TE: $10,000,000
Doug Baldwin, WR: $9,650,000
Kam Chancellor, S: $8,125,008
Bobby Wagner, LB: $7,600,000
Luke Joeckel, T: $7,250,000
K.J. Wright, LB: $6,800,000

The Seahawks look like one of the safest bets to earn a postseason bid in 2017, as the rest of the NFC West comprised of two rebuilding clubs (the 49ers and Rams) another team (the Cardinals) with an aging roster. In a piece for ESPN insider, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders projected Seattle to win 11 games, third in the NFL behind the Patriots and Steelers. Of course, the 2017 campaign probably won’t be considered a success unless the Seahawks bring home the Lombardi trophy once again.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Kirk Cousins’ Future

By Connor J. Byrne | at July 20, 2017 7:29 pm

Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins won’t be eligible to sign a multiyear contract until 2018, meaning his future will continue to be among the NFL’s most popular topics leading up to free agency next March. There are multiple ways in which the Redskins could prevent Cousins from reaching the open market, but as those who have paid any attention to his situation know, it’s going to be exceedingly difficult.

Washington retained Cousins this offseason via the franchise tag for the second straight year, and it saw the price rise from $19.95MM to $23.94MM in the process. Both are palatable costs for Cousins, regardless of whether you believe he’s an elite-level signal-caller or merely a good one. On the other hand, the bill in 2018 for a third consecutive franchise tag – over $34MM – won’t be so appetizing.

While the Redskins could hit Cousins with the $28MM transition tag as a less expensive alternative, that wouldn’t prevent other teams from attempting to pry him away. Any club would have to pay an exorbitant amount to steal Cousins, but a bid that the Redskins don’t match wouldn’t entitle them to any compensation for his departure. The other option for the Redskins is to sign Cousins long term, which they’ve tried to do, but it wouldn’t make much sense for the player to deprive himself of a chance to visit the open market and entertain pitches from around the league if he turns in another terrific season in 2017.

On the heels of his first two years as a starter, a period in which Cousins tossed 54 touchdowns against 23 interceptions, threw for 9,000-plus yards and completed over 68 percent of passes, the Redskins attempted to secure him on a five-year, $110MM extension proposal. Thanks in part to the $43MM-plus in guaranteed money he’ll make from 2016-17, though, Cousins was able to turn down long-term comfort now in hopes of landing an even richer deal in 2018.

While the soon-to-be 29-year-old Cousins is willing to stay in Washington for the foreseeable future (and the team will have plenty of cap space as it negotiates with him next winter), there’s a good chance spurning its offer will go down as a wise decision. With yet another productive season, Cousins would become the rare in-his-prime, franchise-caliber QB to reach free agency, following in the footsteps of Drew Brees in 2006, and many clubs would be in pursuit. Both the 49ers, with a Cousins fan in head coach Kyle Shanahan, and Browns have unsettled situations under center, significant spending room, and have been linked to Cousins this offseason. So, it’s easy to imagine them chasing him in 2018. They won’t be alone, though, with the Jaguars, Jets, Vikings, Cardinals, Rams, Broncos and Bills also standing out as teams that could plausibly participate in a Cousins sweepstakes.

How Cousins performs this season will be a fascinating precursor to what figures to be a riveting offseason for him and Washington. In Cousins, the Redskins found a gem in the fourth round of the 2012 draft, the same year they selected the once-dazzling but now-ruined Robert Griffin III at No. 2 overall. The Redskins believed at the time that RG3 would be the face of their franchise, but five years later, that distinction belongs to Cousins. Roughly eight months from now, though, the Redskins will once again be devoid at the game’s most important position if the very real possibility of Cousins going elsewhere comes to fruition.

Will Kirk Cousins be a Redskin in 2018?

No 77.11% (1,024 votes)

Yes 22.89% (304 votes)

Total Votes: 1,328

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2017 NFL Offseason In Review Series

By Dallas Robinson | at July 18, 2017 8:30 pm

Over the last few weeks, Pro Football Rumors has been taking a closer look at the 2017 offseason on a team-by-team basis. Our Offseason In Review series focuses on free agent signings, trades, draft picks, and all the other moves made by clubs during the spring, breaking down what sort of impact those decisions will have going forward.

Just in case you missed our review for your favorite team, we’re rounding up all of our Offseason In Review pieces in this post. We have several more teams to examine before the regular season gets underway, so if your team isn’t linked below, be sure to keep a close eye on PFR — it’ll be coming soon.

Here are the links to our 2017 Offseason In Review pieces to date:

AFC East:

AFC North:

AFC South:

AFC West:

NFC East:

NFC North:

NFC South:

NFC West:

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Offseason In Review: Detroit Lions

By Dallas Robinson | at July 18, 2017 5:49 pm

Although the Lions finished 9-7 and claimed a NFC Wild Card slot, underlying metrics show Detroit wasn’t as good as its record. Pro Football Reference calculates expected wins and losses based on points scored and points allowed, and the Lions were closer to a seven- or eight-win club based on those numbers. Detroit finished 27th in the NFL in DVOA, worse than clubs such as the Jaguars, Bears, and Chargers, none of whom came close to a postseason appearance.

Still, the Lions presumably still believe they’ll contend with the Packers and Vikings for the NFC North in 2017, and had several obvious areas of focus to attend to this offseason. Let’s take a look at how they did:

Notable signings:

T.J. Lang, G: Three years, $28.5MM. $19MM guaranteed.
Ricky Wagner, T: Five years, $47.5MM. $17.5MM guaranteed.
Akeem Spence, DT: Three years, $9MM. $3.5MM guaranteed.
Paul Worrilow, LB: One year, $3MM. $2.75MM guaranteed.
D.J. Hayden, CB: One year, $3.75MM. $2.25MM guaranteed. $1.5MM available via incentives.
Cornelius Washington, DL: Two years, $5.825MM. $1.5MM guaranteed.
Khyri Thornton, DT: Two years, $3.3MM. $325K guaranteed.
Darren Fells, TE: One year, $1MM. $100K guaranteed.
Jordan Hill, DT: One year, minimum salary benefit. $85K guaranteed.
Nick Bellore, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Matt Asiata, RB: One year, $840K. $60K guaranteed.
Armonty Bryant, DE: One year, minimum salary benefit. $40K guaranteed.
Don Muhlbach, LS: One year, minimum salary benefit. $40K guaranteed.
Cyrus Kouandjio, T: One year, $800K. $35K guaranteed.
Tony Hills, T: One year, minimum salary benefit. $10K guaranteed.
Bruce Gaston, DT: Two years, $1.32MM.
Ego Ferguson, DT: One year, $615K.
Keshawn Martin, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit.

The Lions’ offensive line wasn’t a success in 2016, as the unit ranked 31st in adjusted line yards and 18th in adjusted sack rate, so general manager Bob Quinn made upgrades to Detroit’s front five the focal point of the 2017 offseason. The first step was swapping out right tackle Riley Reiff for free agent Ricky Wagner, whom the Lions made the highest-paid right tackle in the NFL (not counting Lane Johnson, who was paid like the Eagles’ left tackle of the future). With Reiff in tow, Detroit averaged only 2.93 yards on rushes to the right side, according to Football Outsiders. Baltimore, Wagner’s former employer, averaged 4.62 running to the right, meaning improvement should be on the way in the Motor City.

Wagner wasn’t the only addition to the right side of the Lions’ offensive line, however, as the team also signed T.J. Lang to replace Larry Warford at right guard. Not only did Detroit land one of the league’s best guards in Lang, but it stole him from a division rival, weakening the Packers’ line in the process. In order to ink Lang, who reportedly narrowed his free agent choices to Detroit, Green Bay, and Seattle, the Lions guaranteed two-thirds of his $29MM contract, an unprecedented total. Lang, 29, missed three games with injury last season and is now recovering from January hip surgery, but he should be available for training camp.

Darren Fells will be lining up next to Wagner and Lang on the Lions’ front five, and the veteran tight end will essentially act as a sixth offensive lineman on many plays. Fells, whom Detroit signed after he was non-tendered by the Cardinals, managed only 14 receptions a season ago, but uses his 6’7″, 280-pound size as one of the league’s best blocking tight ends, both in the run and pass game. His presence should allow the Lions to split Eric Ebron out wide in more creative formations.

Although Detroit has improved its blocking, that doesn’t mean free agent addition Matt Asiata will suddenly become more effective. Over the past three years, Asiata has been among the league’s most inefficient backs. Of the 49 running backs who have managed at least 250 carries since 2014, Matt Asiata ranks next-to-last with a 3.45 yards per carry average. Last season, Asiata placed in the bottom-10 among backs in both DVOA and DYAR, Football Outsiders’ efficiency metrics. Not guaranteed a roster spot, Asiata shouldn’t be part of Detroit’s Week 1 squad unless an injury strikes.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions surprisingly didn’t target any high-profile free agents after the team ranked dead last in defensive DVOA, instead opting to patch over the unit with low-cost additions. In that vein, Detroit signed defensive linemen Akeem Spence and Cornelius Washington, and it’s difficult to see either providing much of an impact next season. Spence, particularly, ranked 123rd of out of 125 qualified interior defenders, per Pro Football Focus, which gave Spence horrible marks against the run. Washington, on the other hand, earned good scores as a pass-rusher, meaning he’ll likely contribute in sub packages.

Both of Detroit’s linebacker signings — Paul Worrilow and Nick Bellore — have recent starting experience, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the duo spends more time on special teams than as regular players on the Lions’ defense. Worrilow and Bellore each played more than 40% of their previous club’s special teams snaps, and Quinn has shown a willingness to pay for special teams aptitude, as evidenced by the signing of Johnson Bademosi last offseason and the extension of Don Carey in December. Detroit’s special teams unit finished sixth in DVOA in 2016 after ranking 13th and 31st in the two years prior.

After fielding the league’s worst pass defense last year, the Lions’ only free agent signing in the secondary was former first-round bust D.J. Hayden. Taking a chance on a former 12th overall selection is never the worst idea, but given Detroit’s immediate needs in the defensive backfield, the club should have gone after more known commodities. Jason McCourty, Davon House, and Morris Claiborne all signed for similar money as Hayden, and I’d take them all over the former Raider.

Joique Bell, RB
Anquan Boldin, WR
Jon Bostic, LB
Michael Burton, FB: Waived
Rafael Bush, S
Josh Bynes, LB
Stefan Charles, DT
Clay Harbor, TE
Asa Jackson, CB
DeAndre Levy, LB: Released
Matthew Mulligan, TE
Dan Orlovsky, QB
Riley Reiff, T
Andre Roberts, WR
Devin Taylor, DE
Larry Warford, G
Tim Wright, TE

Riley Reiff and Larry Warford are both competent players, drafted and developed by the Lions, and should provide value to their new clubs (the Vikings and Saints, respectively). But there’s no question Detroit made the right move in letting both go in order to sign Ricky Wagner and T.J. Lang. Wagner, notably, is a superior player to Reiff, and received $2.25MM less per season and $8.8MM less in guarantees. Instead of paying for familiarity, the Lions wisely chose to upgrade their offensive line with external additions.

While he’s not technically a “loss” just yet, Anquan Boldin doesn’t appear likely to re-sign with the Lions (despite the club maintaining that it would be open to retaining the veteran receiver). Acting essentially as an undersized tight end, Boldin managed 97 targets and eight touchdowns in 2016, his 14th NFL campaign. While he’d be a welcome addition to the 2017 Detroit roster, Boldin may want to sign with a club closer to his Florida residence, and might be willing to wait for the right deal to come along.

None of Detroit’s other losses on offense should overly affect the makeup of the roster, although the team will need to find another return specialist after allowing Andre Roberts to sign with the Falcons. Roberts averaged 22.6 yards on kick returns, 12.3 yards and punt returns, and scored tow touchdowns in the return game, so he’ll certainly be missed. Reserves such as T.J. Jones and Jace Billingsley look the like favorites for the role, although fifth-round rookie Jamal Agnew should also be in the mix.

Given the state of the Lions’ defense in 2016, allowing nearly every free agent on that side of the ball wouldn’t have been a bad idea. Releasing DeAndre Levy was probably a tough decision, however, as he was among the NFL’s best linebackers as recently as 2014. But the 30-year-old simply couldn’t stay healthy, as he’d appeared in only six games over the past two seasons. Levy recently underwent another knee surgery and could be planning an injury grievance against the Lions, claiming that Detroit released him while he was still dealing with a health issue.

There’s a case to be made that defensive end Devin Taylor was the league’s worst full-time starting defensive lineman in 2016. Among DLs that started all 16 games, Taylor ranked next-to-last in approximate value, Pro Football Reference’s catch-all metric, and graded as the second-worst edge defender in the league, per PFF. The 27-year-old Taylor has never been able to use his 6’7″ height to his advantage, and has posted only 15 sacks in four NFL seasons. He garnered only $40K in guarantees as part of a minimum salary benefit contract with the Giants.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 96; Kenny Golladay) and a 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 124; LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin) from the Patriots in exchange for a 2017 third-round pick (No. 85; OL Antonio Garcia).
Acquired T Greg Robinson from the Rams in exchange for a 2018 sixth-round pick.

After learning left tackle Taylor Decker would be sidelined for several months (and possibly miss regular season action), the Lions took a two-pronged approach to solving their blindside problem, and both tacks involved targeting pedigree over production. First, Detroit signed former second-round pick Cyrus Kouandjio, whom the Bills waived after he involved in a bizarre incident with police in April. Second, the Lions sent a future seventh-round selection to Los Angeles for former No. 2 overall choice Greg Robinson.

Both Kouandjio and Robinson are expected to compete for time at left tackle, but I’d put my money on Robinson. The Auburn product was an excellent player at the collegiate level, and although that acumen has never transferred to the pros, there’s reason for optimism. Former Lions offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz penned an excellent piece for SB Nation detailing why Robinson is an outstanding for for Detroit’s scheme, noting Robinson “can use his quickness and strength to overwhelm defenders at the line of scrimmage in the pass game.”

Lions general manager Bob Quinn, a disciple of trade-friendly Bill Belichick, has shown a willingness to make deals during his short tenure in charge of Detroit’s personnel office. Quinn & Co. took chances on Johnthan Banks and Jon Bostic last year, and even worked out a player-for-player trade with the 49ers, sending Jeremy Kerley to San Francisco for Brandon Thomas. Not every swap will work out (all three of Quinn’s swings were arguably failures), but it’s refreshing to see a GM use other avenues of player acquisition.

Draft picks:

1-21: Jarrad Davis, LB (Florida)
2-53: Teez Tabor, CB (Florida)
3-96: Kenny Golladay, WR (Northern Illinois)
4-124: Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, (Tennessee)
4-127: Michael Roberts, TE (Toledo)
5-165: Jamal Agnew, DB (San Diego)
6-205: Jeremiah Ledbetter, DT (Arkansas)
6-215: Brad Kaaya, QB (Miami)
7-250: Pat O’Connor, DE (Eastern Michigan)

While the Lions didn’t use free agency to upgrade its porous defense, the team did find several players in the draft who could become immediate starters. Viewed as a ready-made ‘backer, Jarrad Davis is already calling defensive plays and will take over in the middle from day one, where he’ll attempt to become Detroit’s version of Jerod Mayo or Dont’a Hightower. Teez Tabor, meanwhile, was thought to be surefire first-rounder before slow 40-yard dash scores tanked his stock, but he could potentially see time in nickel packages during his rookie campaign.

Third-round receiver Kenny Golladay is already a favorite of many fantasy analysts — numberFire’s J.J. Zachiarson thinks Golladay will be labeled “Babytron” by Week 5 — and the opportunity should certainly be there for the former Northern Illinois pass-catcher. Detroit use three receivers on roughly 73% of offensive plays in 2016, which was about 13% above league average. If Anquan Boldin isn’t re-signed, the Lions will have a massive void at their third wideout spot. Mike Clay of ESPN.com projects Golladay for 71 targets and 43 receptions.

In his “Way Too Early” 2017 mock draft (published just days after the 2016 draft), Todd McShay of ESPN.com sent Brad Kaaya to the 49ers with the second overall pick of the entire draft. Just a season later, Kaaya fell to the sixth round, but his collegiate statistics didn’t change much from year-to-year. Kaaya actually improved his completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and passer rating. Still, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com says Kaaya’s “accuracy and deep ball placement can be sketchy,” and he’s not a lock to make Detroit’s 53-man roster.

Other:

Hired former Texans OC George Godsey as defensive assistant/special projects.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for TE Eric Ebron ($5.194MM).
Learned T Taylor Decker would likely miss regular season games due to torn labrum.
Learned DT Khyri Thornton was suspended six games (substance abuse).
Learned DE Armonty Bryant was suspended four games (substance abuse).
Signed 14 undrafted college free agents.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Matthew Stafford, QB: $22,000,000
Ziggy Ansah, DE: $12,734,000
Darius Slay, CB: $10,681,250
Marvin Jones, WR: $8,600,000
Golden Tate, WR: $8,351,250
Glover Quin, S: $7,827,500
Haloti Ngata, DT: $7,703,125
Ricky Wagner, T: $5,900,000
T.J. Lang, G: $5,869,791
Tahir Whitehead, LB: $4,987,500

Detroit was lucky to make the playoffs in 2016, and general manager Bob Quinn seemingly realized that, as his club didn’t approach the offseason as if it were one player away from a Super Bowl. Instead, the Lions made incremental improvements along the offensive line and added role players on defense, focusing on low-cost signees over high-profile players. While they could addressed the defense a bit more in free agency, the Lions did target defensive help in the draft. All told, Detroit should be on the fringes of postseason contention in 2017, and who knows? Maybe they’ll get lucky again.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Kansas City Chiefs

By Sam Robinson | at July 16, 2017 8:00 pm

Plenty changed in Kansas City since the Chiefs’ narrow divisional-round defeat. High-profile moves came after the Chiefs missed out on another opportunity to advance to an AFC championship game, a round the franchise hasn’t seen in 23 years.

The changes — severing ties with John Dorsey, cutting Jeremy Maclin, and drafting a first-round quarterback for the first time in 34 years — have the defending AFC West champions’ future in question. After being one of the top challengers for AFC supremacy this season, it’s tough to make a case the Chiefs are markedly improved for 2017.

Considering most of the moves the Chiefs made in previous offseasons were about immediate success, and they helped create a team on the rise over the past four years, the team took a bit of a different approach this offseason.

Notable signings:

Eric Berry, S: Six years, $78MM. $29.8MM guaranteed. Had been assigned franchise tag.
Bennie Logan, DT: One year, $8MM. $7.68MM guaranteed.
Gavin Escobar, TE: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Mike Person, G: One year, minimum salary benefit. $50K guaranteed.
Cairo Santos, K: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Albert Wilson, WR: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Donald Hawkins, OL: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Jarvis Jenkins, DL: One year, minimum salary benefit.
C.J. Spiller, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Cam Thomas, DT: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Andrew Tiller, OL: One year, $690K.
Josh Mauga, LB: Contract terms unknown.
Steven Terrell, S: Contract terms unknown.

During an offseason that became known more for the men the Chiefs parted with than those they acquired, Kansas City did sign Berry to an extension at long last. Berry was attached to an old-CBA rookie contract until 2016, and he played last season on the franchise tag. But the Chiefs’ indecision on Berry last summer ended up costing them financially. The sides reportedly never got close on a deal by July 2016, leading to the tag season, but said campaign ended up being Berry’s best.

He came up with game-saving turnovers in road wins in Atlanta and Charlotte and helped the Chiefs to their first division title in six years. And with the marketplace changing in between Berry negotiations, thanks to the Cardinals’ landmark deal for Tyrann Mathieu in August of last year, Berry’s camp — representing one of only two active three-time first-team All-Pro safeties — could talk from a greater position of strength. Berry is now the highest-paid safety at $13MM AAV, and his deal will take him well into his 30s. The Chiefs continued their Dorsey-era style of backloading contracts, with Berry’s 2017 cap number sitting at $5MM. That jumps to $13MM in 2018 and $16.5MM in ’19.

Kansas City’s only notable March outside acquisition came in Logan, who will be the rare Philadelphia-to-Kansas City transplant that did not have an Andy Reid connection. Logan joined the Eagles as a third-rounder in 2013, months after Reid headed for western Missouri. Logan will take over starting nose tackle duties from Dontari Poe and return to the 3-4 scheme he played in for three seasons in Philly. Kansas City has used a 3-4 scheme since 2009, but Philadelphia switched to a 4-3 look last season that had Logan slightly out of position.

The Chiefs were up against the cap entering free agency again, limiting their ability to spend on multiple players. But for a third straight year, the team did walk away with a proven starter acquired. They signed Maclin in 2015 and Mitchell Schwartz last year despite limited funds. But this offseason, not much else transpired for the team during free agency’s premier month.

T.J. Barnes, DL
Jamaal Charles, RB: Released
Knile Davis, RB
Nick Foles, QB: Team declined option
Jaye Howard, DL: Released
Jeremy Maclin, WR: Released
Dontari Poe, DT
Kendall Reyes, DL

Despite the Chiefs parting with one of the most popular players in franchise history in Charles, that move was expected. Their June 2 release of Maclin doubled as one of the most surprising transactions of the NFL offseason. And their receiving corps is now in an uncertain spot.

Maclin missed four games last season due to injury, one the 29-year-old wideout recently revealed was a torn groin, but he was working with the Chiefs’ starters during OTAs in May. Kansas City did not ask its previous No. 1 receiver to take a pay cut, which made for an interesting all-or-nothing move from a team that could use a healthy version of Maclin. The Missouri native having played well in 2015 (1,088 air yards, eight receiving TDs — eight more than the 2014 Chiefs’ receiving corps collectively compiled) before multiple injuries in 2016 put his value in question.

The ankle and groin maladies Maclin suffered look to have changed the way the franchise viewed him, but given the bidding war that ensued once Maclin became available, other teams appear to believe he can still have a solid future. Regardless of how it’s spun, cutting Maclin two seasons into a five-year deal does not present favorable optics. The Chiefs will incur dead-money hits of $2.4MM this year and $4.8MM in 2018 as part of the five-year, $55MM pact Maclin signed. Although it’s not quite the misjudgment the 2013 Dwayne Bowe extension was on the Chiefs’ part, they signed Maclin to replace a rapidly declining Bowe as the nominal No. 1 wideout. They no longer have a surefire successor.

Reid’s offense funneled through first-team All-Pro Travis Kelce last season, and Tyreek Hill became either a dangerous deep threat or a lethal gadget player (depending on one’s view of the polarizing performer). Beyond Hill, the Chiefs still have their committee of supporting-casters — rookie Jehu Chesson joins Chris Conley and Albert Wilson here now — and it’s hard to argue Maclin couldn’t have helped this attack. Alex Smith seemed to think so.

While Kansas City missed Charles as Spencer Ware proved capable but unspectacular, his $7MM cap hit made the release an easy call. It’s hard to envision the Broncos coaxing peak-level Charles performance again, and it’s uncertain he will be healthy enough to contribute. But the Chiefs’ all-time rushing leader got by with substandard offensive lines for the most part and is still the NFL’s yards-per-carry kingpin. As the Chiefs close the door on the 2008 third-round pick’s Kansas City tenure, they may soon give the reins to another Round 3 selection in Kareem Hunt.

Poe became a fairly obvious defection candidate once Berry was retained on a record deal. Although still a volume dynamo, playing extensively for a nose tackle, Poe has slipped a bit since his dominant 2014 season. The offseason back surgery Poe underwent in 2015 provides a line of demarcation. A prolific pressure artist from the nose position in 2013 and ’14, Poe registered just 2.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Kansas City’s run defense also dropped to 26th last season, despite Poe returning to his usual 16-game workload.

Once thought to be set to land a contract similar to the one the Ravens gave Brandon Williams, the mammoth defender settled for a one-year pact that reunites him with Scott Pioli (who used his final first-round pick as Chiefs GM on Poe in 2012). The Dorsey-led front office didn’t get far with Poe on extension talks in 2016, and the Chiefs’ defensive line will lose its steadiest presence from the past five years. However, Logan’s addition and the emergence of Chris Jones won’t make Poe’s departure nearly as damaging as it once looked like it could have been.

A breakout player for the 2015 Chiefs, Howard (5.5 sacks that season) is gone midway into a two-year deal viewed as a team-friendly pact last March. A hip injury ended Howard’s 2016 season and led to a failed physical prompting the Chiefs to release him in April. Jones looked the part of Howard’s replacement, becoming one of the league’s top rookies last season.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 first-round pick (No. 10; QB Patrick Mahomes) from the Bills in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 27; CB Tre’Davious White), a 2017 third-round pick (No. 91), and a 2018 first-round pick.
Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 86; RB Kareem Hunt) from the Vikings in exchange for a 2017 third-round pick (No. 104), a 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 132) and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 245; CB Jack Tocho).
Acquired a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 183; LB Ukeme Eligwe) from the Patriots in exchange for TE James O’Shaughnessy and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 216).
Acquired a 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 139; WR Jehu Chesson) from the Vikings in exchange for a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 170; WR Rodney Adams) and a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 180; OL Danny Isidora).

The succession of quarterbacks to come through Kansas City over the past generation made this one of the more unique position groups in the league. The parade of ex-49ers filling this spot (Joe Montana, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac and now Smith) forged the kind of pipeline that will be difficult for two other teams to create. And Trent Green also pieced together some solid years during this veteran procession, one that did help the Chiefs to a steady run of playoff berths in the 1990s, a 13-win 2003 season and three playoff appearances in the past four years. That said, it’s been strange to watch the Chiefs repeatedly avoid attempting to build around a young passer.

Making the Mahomes trade even more interesting: neither GM who orchestrated it is in power less than three months later. (The Bills fired Doug Whaley after the draft.) The Chiefs had better opportunities to select a franchise passer in the past (holding top-five picks in 2008, ’09, ’10 and ’13) but opted to make a seminal trade to select a tools-heavy Texas Tech passer. Mahomes was viewed as a second-round pick before the workout process — and the supply-and-demand crisis the NFL’s seen at quarterback — vaulted him up to No. 10 overall. This may well end the Smith era after 2017, with the 33-year-old signal-caller’s contract leaving the Chiefs on the hook for just $3.6MM in dead money next year.

Mahomes, though, may take time to develop. Smith being under contract for two more seasons would allow for this to happen. But the Chiefs made past moves to augment their starter’s chances of leading this franchise to prominence. Only this offseason, they’ve suddenly veered the other way. Never an aesthetically impressive passer, Smith could find himself in a tough spot in keeping a player with superior raw skills on the bench while a large sect of Chiefs fans — who saw mostly middling veterans start for this franchise for more than 20 years — eagerly awaits Mahomes’ debut.

This impending overlap of eras makes for an intriguing backdrop in Kansas City this season.

Draft picks:

1-10: Patrick Mahomes, QB (Texas Tech)
2-59: Tanoh Kpassagnon, DL (Villanova)
3-86: Kareem Hunt, RB (Toledo)
4-139: Jehu Chesson, WR (Michigan)
5-183: Ukeme Eligwe, LB (Georgia Southern)
6-218: Leon McQuay III, S (USC)

For the second straight year, the Chiefs opted to upgrade their defensive line in the second round. Kpassagnon registered 21.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks as a senior, and at 6-foot-7, 289 pounds is quite the athletic specimen. It’s unclear how ready he will be to help Kansas City’s front this season, but the Division I-FCS product likely will have the same role the Chiefs prepared Jones for last year: physically imposing rotational presence. But with Allen Bailey‘s contract becoming easier to shed in 2018 ($6MM in cap savings), Jones-Kpassagnon could be the Chiefs’ look at end beginning next season.

Hunt may relegate Charcandrick West to a roster-spot battle after once being the first candidate used to replace Charles as a starter in 2015. A former Mid-American Conference standout, Hunt is only 21 and is coming off a consistent college career. He averaged 8.0 yards per carry and surpassed 1,600 on the ground in 2014. Last season, he added some aerial production to a resume that was previously light in that department. Hunt totaled 1,878 yards from scrimmage and scored 11 touchdowns. He may start the season behind Spencer Ware but will be a good bet to push the incumbent soon.

Chesson figures to vie for time alongside Wilson and Conley in Reid’s revolving WR2 carousel. Each figures to receive opportunities, and now that Maclin’s out of the picture, there could be more work available for the oft-overlooked group.

Extensions and restructures:

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, G: Extended through 2022. Five years, $41,264,500. $14MM guaranteed.
Daniel Sorensen, S: Extended through 2020. Four years, $16MM. $4.69MM guaranteed.
James Winchester, LS: Restructured contract. Created $400K in cap space by converting 2017 roster bonus into a signing bonus.
Derrick Johnson, LB: Accepted pay cut. Reduced 2017 base salary of $4.75MM to a guaranteed $1MM. $1MM signing bonus.
Anthony Sherman, FB: Accepted pay cut. Reduced 2017 base salary from $1.55MM to a guaranteed $1MM. Reduced 2017 per-game roster bonuses from $200K to $100K.

After what amounted to a redshirt rookie year, Duvernay-Tardif’s served as a constant on the Chiefs’ offensive line. Despite being a sixth-round pick, the Canadian doctor-in-training started 27 games over the past two seasons. He would not have been anyone’s first guess regarding which of Dorsey’s 2014 draft picks would be the first to be signed to an extension, but after a solid 2016, Duvernay-Tardif is now earns upper-echelon guard money.

In Duvernay-Tardif, Schwartz, Mitch Morse and Eric Fisher, the Chiefs have their best offensive line foundation since a dominant crew that housed Hall of Famers Will Shields and Willie Roaf. While a sizable gulf exists between the Chiefs’ top-flight 2000s group and this one, Kansas City’s line play has taken a step forward after the quintets that bridged the gap between these blocking contingents did not fare especially well. Now, the Chiefs have four offensive linemen locked up through at least 2018 and three through ’19.

Although Johnson is signed through 2018, this season could be his Chiefs swan song. The 2005 first-round pick’s been one of the best defenders in team history and made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2015, but a second severe Achilles injury in three seasons forced the 34-year-old inside ‘backer to go through another lengthy rehab process.

Like Tamba Hali‘s, Johnson’s deal will be easier to jettison from the 2018 payroll. But the Chiefs need Johnson to make another comeback this season. They don’t have much of an answer beyond the veteran on the inside, and after Le’Veon Bell carved up the Chiefs with repeated interior jaunts with Johnson sidelined in January, the team could use its top tackler to deliver another quality campaign. Johnson hopes to be ready by training camp.

Other:

Hired Brett Veach as general manager to replace John Dorsey.
Extended head coach Andy Reid through 2021.
Promoted co-offensive coordinator Brad Childress to assistant head coach.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for LB Dee Ford ($8.718MM).
Signed, and then waived, S Marqueston Huff. Chiefs will carry $40K in dead money.
Signed 12 undrafted college free agents.

Dorsey and Reid turned Kansas City from a 2-14 team — one that produced five Pro Bowlers — into an 11-5 playoff entrant within a year, and each successive Chiefs playoff team was a bigger threat to advance. This culminated in another divisional-round shortcoming — the franchise’s sixth straight Round 2 defeat — after the Chiefs’ first division title in six years.

Prioritizing Reid in this arrangement isn’t shocking based on the longtime coach’s consistent track record, and he’s now signed to potentially coach into his fourth decade. But parting with Dorsey after the franchise’s ascent occurred under his watch was curious. Various reasons — from his management style to his attire decisions — emerged in the wake of this oddly timed bombshell, but that timing left the Chiefs with little choice but to promote from within.

Previously a co-player personnel director, Veach resided below Dorsey and Chris Ballard within the Chiefs’ prior chain of command. But the 39-year-old exec is now the top front office man in Kansas City after following Reid from Philly in 2013. While the better course of action for chairman Clark Hunt — had he known a Dorsey extension was not going to be in the cards — would have been to keep Ballard from defecting to the Colts, this realization clearly didn’t come until later in the offseason. The Chiefs hiring a GM from inside the organization marks a change of pace from semi-recent outside additions of Dorsey and Pioli before him, but it should also help establish some continuity from a regime that helped revive the franchise.

After two years featuring scant contributions, Ford broke out when the team needed him most. With Houston sidelined and Hali declining, Ford nearly doubled his previous career sack total by registering 10 last season. Now with Houston back in the fold and Hali likely relegated to more of a part-time role, the Chiefs could have their deepest collection of edge rushers in years. Ford’s extension window will seemingly open when Hali’s deal is off the books, freeing up a slot for a No. 2 pass rusher’s salary.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Justin Houston, LB: $22,100,000
Alex Smith, QB: $16,900,000
Eric Fisher, T: $9,457,977
Tamba Hali, LB: $8,583,333
Bennie Logan, DT: $7,953,125
Mitchell Schwartz, T: $6,900,000
Allen Bailey, DL: $6,156,250
Ron Parker, S: $5,600,000
Travis Kelce, TE: $5,418,400

Sweeping changes coming for a team that had been a beacon of stability in recent years affects the Chiefs’ viability as a contender this season. Considering how close Kansas City was to booking an AFC championship game appearance last season, a few additions to bolster this year’s team could have been the prudent moves — especially given the recent offseasons spent enhancing this core. But it’s debatable how close the Chiefs were to a Super Bowl, factoring in Smith’s limitations and a defense that has peaked at good but not dominant. Depending on how you view the 2012 Ravens, that formula hasn’t produced many modern-era championship contenders.

The Chiefs will be asked to defend their AFC West title against a loaded division. And they’ll be doing so as probably the least improved team among that quartet. Guiding the Chiefs back to the perch on which they hovered in January won’t be an easy task for Reid.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PFR Originals: 7/9/17 – 7/16/17

By Sam Robinson | at July 16, 2017 5:14 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

With the 2017 regular season only two months away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered eight teams this week:
As the franchise tag deadline looms on Monday, PFR’s Zach Links examined the situation in Pittsburgh. The high tag number ($12.12MM) provides a safe floor for Le’Veon Bell if the Steelers and their star running back can’t agree on terms, but Bell’s injury history and off-field track record could give the team pause.
The other two franchise-tagged performers, the Redskins’ Kirk Cousins and Rams’ Trumaine Johnson, don’t appear any closer than Bell to reaching an agreement. Zach asked readers which player would be the most likely to sign a long-term deal. Although “none” made a good fight of it, readers went with Bell here.

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Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

By Connor J. Byrne | at July 14, 2017 5:31 pm

The Bills have gone an NFL-worst 17 years since their most recent trip to the playoffs, and offseason upheaval has unsurprisingly been commonplace during their post-1990s fall from grace. Buffalo has shuffled through various coaching staffs and front office setups during its embarrassing postseason drought, and after a seven-win showing in 2016, the club once again turned its football department over to a new regime.

The changes began in earnest last December with the late-season firing of brash head coach Rex Ryan, who was more style than substance during his 15-win, 31-game stint in Western New York. While interim head coach/offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn looked like the favorite to succeed Ryan, the Bills ended up hiring Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, leaving Lynn to accept the Chargers’ head coaching job. The businesslike, process-driven McDermott comes off as the antithesis of Ryan, and the neophyte head coach so impressed Bills owner Terry Pegula that he quickly became the the team’s chief decision maker on football matters.

The initial expectation was that McDermott and general manager Doug Whaley would coexist, but the latter’s influence at One Bills Drive seemed to shrink by the day after the former’s introduction. At the end of April, right after the draft and nearly four months after McDermott’s January entrance, the Bills handed Whaley his walking papers. Thanks to the odd timing of that move, Pegula and McDermott had to operate an early May GM search – one that concluded with the hiring of a McDermott confidant, former Panthers assistant GM Brandon Beane. Because the GM switch occurred well after the key stages of the offseason had come and gone, Beane hasn’t had an opportunity to make his mark on the franchise. As such, the roster the Bills put on the field this year will be a Whaley/McDermott product.

Notable signings:

Micah Hyde, S: Five years, $30.5MM. $10.3MM guaranteed.
Jordan Poyer, S: Four years, $13MM. $5MM guaranteed.
Steven Hauschka, K: Three years, $8.85MM. $4MM guaranteed.
Ryan Groy, OL: Two years, $5MM. $3.5MM guaranteed. Matched Rams’ RFA offer sheet.
Lorenzo Alexander, LB: Two years, $5.95MM. $3.4MM guaranteed.
Patrick DiMarco, FB: Four years, $8.4MM. $3.3MM guaranteed.
Andre Holmes, WR: Three years, $5.15MM. $2.45MM guaranteed.
Jordan Mills, T: Two years, $3.8MM. $400K guaranteed.
Colton Schmidt, P: Two years, $2.6MM. $400K guaranteed.
Vlad Ducasse, G: Three years, $3.5MM. $250K guaranteed.
Rod Streater, WR: One year, $775K. $110K guaranteed.
Ryan Davis, DE: Two years, $2.2MM. $100K guaranteed.
Shareece Wright, CB: One year, $1MM. $100K guaranteed.
Colt Anderson, S: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Gerald Hodges, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Ramon Humber, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Mike Tolbert, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Brandon Tate, WR: One year, $900K. $50K guaranteed.
T.J. Yates, QB: One year, $815K.
Leonard Johnson, CB: One year, $775K.
Joe Banyard, RB: One year, $690K.
Corey Brown, WR: One year, $690K.
Carl Bradford, LB: One year, $615K.
Jeremy Butler, WR: One year, $615K.

In exchanging Ryan for McDermott, the Bills committed to a scheme overhaul on defense, the area they primarily focused on in free agency. The Bills didn’t dole out any exorbitant contracts, but they did sign former Packers defensive back Micah Hyde to a fairly sizable deal and award $5MM in guarantees to anonymous ex-Brown Jordan Poyer. Those two figure to form the top safety tandem in Buffalo, which axed its previous starting duo of Corey Graham and Aaron Williams over the winter.

Even though Graham and Williams fared well with the Bills, both players remain on the unemployment line, with age likely to blame in the soon-to-be 32-year-old Graham’s case and neck issues the obvious culprit for Williams. While Hyde, 26, should be a solid addition for the Bills, having been a quality contributor to Green Bay’s defense from 2013-16, it’s less clear what they’ll get from Poyer. Also 26, the unproven Poyer has just 10 starts in 48 appearances on his resume, and he’s coming off a six-game season in which his performance ranked a below-average 70th among Pro Football Focus’ 90 qualified safeties.

Judging solely on 2016 output, the Bills’ most noteworthy free agent transaction was the re-signing of linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, who broke out under Ryan last season. A journeyman who tallied just 9.5 sacks over his first nine NFL campaigns, Alexander stunningly piled up 12.5 in 2016, his age-33 campaign, en route to second-team All-Pro honors. As great as Alexander was last season, he’ll have to prove himself all over again this year. Not only is he an aging player with a limited track record, but Alexander will no longer operate in the 3-4 scheme in which he was a force as an edge player. Rather, he’ll play strongside linebacker in the Bills’ 4-3, and if Alexander turns back into a pumpkin without Ryan, the Bills will be able to escape the second year of his contract next winter without much difficulty.

Among those joining Alexander in the Bills’ linebacker corps this year will be Gerald Hodges, whom the team plucked from the bargain bin in May. The signing of the talented Hodges is reminiscent of the Bills’ pickup of fellow linebacker Zach Brown last year. It was a head-scratcher that Brown had to settle for a minimal deal in the spring after he had three productive years in Tennessee. Sure enough, Brown went on to serve as a terrific buy-low acquisition for the Bills, with whom he starred in 2016 before heading to the Redskins in free agency.

The potential exists for Hodges to offer a similar return on investment, given that the 26-year-old registered 80 tackles, three sacks and two interceptions last season in San Francisco. Along the way, he ranked an outstanding 21st among PFF’s 88 linebackers (Brown was 18th). Now, it appears Hodges, Alexander, Preston Brown and Reggie Ragland, who missed his rookie year with a torn ACL, will function as the Bills’ top LBs.

Robert Blanton, S
Sergio Brown, S
Zach Brown, LB
Corbin Bryant, DT
Reggie Bush, RB
Gerald Christian, TE: Waived
Dan Carpenter, K: Released
Leger Douzable, DL
Marcus Easley, WR: Released
IK Enemkpali, DE: Non-tendered
Jerome Felton, FB
Mike Gillislee, RB: Bills declined to match Patriots RFA offer sheet
Stephon Gilmore, CB
Marquise Goodwin, WR
Chris Gragg, TE
Corey Graham, S: Released
Percy Harvin, WR: Retired
Justin Hunter, WR
James Ihedigbo, S
Cyrus Kouandjio, T: Waived
EJ Manuel, QB
Lerentee McCray, LB
Jonathan Meeks, S
Marcus Roberson, CB: Waived
Nickell Robey-Coleman, CB: Released
Garrison Sanborn, LS: Released
Brandon Spikes, LB
Corey White, CB
Aaron Williams, S: Released
Robert Woods, WR

Along with Graham and Williams, the Bills’ secondary lost a couple other notable pieces in cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Nickell Robey-Coleman. It’s no surprise that the Bills were unable to bring back Gilmore, who parlayed a good (sometimes excellent) five-year tenure with the team into a mega-deal with the AFC East rival Patriots in free agency. On the other hand, the exit of Robey-Coleman was an eye-opener. While diminutive, the 5-foot-8, 179-pound Robey-Coleman was mostly effective in Buffalo after debuting as an undrafted free agent in 2013. Nevertheless, the McDermott-led Bills elected to release him in March, freeing up $1.65MM in cap room but simultaneously worsening their situation at corner.

On the offensive side, the Bills said goodbye to their second-best receiver, Robert Woods, and No. 2 running back Mike Gillislee in free agency. As with Gilmore, there was little expectation the Bills would pay up for Woods, a reliable Sammy Watkins complement who went home to Southern California to act as as the alpha dog in the Rams’ receiving corps. Given that Gillislee was a restricted free agent, keeping him would’ve been easier, yet the Bills allowed him to follow Gilmore to New England. Oddly, Buffalo only tendered Gillislee at the original round level (at a cost of $1.797MM), thereby setting up his departure. Because Gillislee entered the league as a fifth-round pick, the Patriots only had to sacrifice a fifth-rounder in order to sign him away, which they did after inking him to a two-year, $6.4MM offer sheet that the Bills didn’t match.

Had the Bills given Gillislee a second-round tender for roughly another $1MM, they’d have warded off the Pats (and other possible suitors) and retained a back who was instrumental in their No. 1-ranked rushing attack last season. Gillislee averaged a whopping 5.7 yards per carry on 101 attempts and scored eight touchdowns a year ago, and it’s fair to suggest his unproven replacement, Jonathan Williams, will have a difficult time approaching those numbers. To the Bills’ credit, even without Gillislee, they still look strong in the backfield with the elite LeSean McCoy in front of Williams, former Panthers short-yardage specialist Mike Tolbert and ex-Falcons fullback Patrick DiMarco.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 first-round pick (No. 27; CB Tre’Davious White), a 2017 third-round pick (No. 91), and a 2018 first-round pick from the Chiefs in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 10; QB Patrick Mahomes).
Acquired a 2017 second-round pick (No. 37; WR Zay Jones) and a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 149) from the Rams in exchange for a 2017 second-round pick (No. 44; TE Gerald Everett) and a 2017 third-round pick (No. 91; S John Johnson).
Acquired a 2017 second-round pick (No. 63; OL Dion Dawkins) from the Falcons in exchange for a 2017 third-round pick (No. 75; LB Duke Riley), 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 149; CB Damontae Kazee), and a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 156; RB Brian Hill).

Draft picks:

1-27: Tre’Davious White, CB (LSU)
2-37: Zay Jones, WR (East Carolina)
2-63: Dion Dawkins, OL (Temple)
5-163: Matt Milano, LB (Boston College)
5-171: Nathan Peterman, QB (Pittsburgh)
6-195: Tanner Vallejo, LB (Boise State)

The Bills actively looked into the best quarterback prospects in advance of this year’s draft and and could’ve selected one of them – be it Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson – with the 10th pick. The club clearly wasn’t sold on them, though, as it traded down to 27th in a deal with Kansas City, landing an extra first-round choice in 2018 and a third-rounder this year in the process. It’s hard to argue with the decision, given that the Bills netted 170 cents on the dollar in the swap, according to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective, and secured a Day 1 starter in Tre’Davious White at No. 27. The ex-LSU standout will replace Gilmore and team with Ronald Darby as one of the Bills’ top two corners from the get-go.

To take over for their second-biggest free agent loss, Woods, the Bills used their initial second-rounder on receiver Zay Jones. They first had to trade up with Woods’ new team, the Rams, in order to select Jones, whom they grabbed at No. 44. The 6-2, 201-pound Jones had an incredible career at East Carolina, where he set an NCAA record with 399 receptions from 2013-16 (including a ridiculous 158 last season), and will have a chance to make an impact right away in the pros. To say the least, the Bills are shaky at receiver, as Watkins has dealt with injuries and none of their other veterans have established themselves.

Like both White and Jones, the Bills’ third pick, second-rounder Dion Dawkins, should start in his NFL debut. They also had to move up for Dawkins, who started at left tackle at Temple and will likely occupy the right bookend spot with the Bills if LT Cordy Glenn‘s high ankle sprain isn’t serious. While Glenn, guards Richie Incognito and John Miller and center Eric Wood were strengths along the Bills’ offensive last season, they didn’t get much from Jordan Mills at right tackle. Dawkins is now in line to usurp his job as part of a quintet that PFF ranks as the league’s No. 10 unit going into 2017.

Extensions and restructures:

Tyrod Taylor, QB: Restructured contract through 2019. Two years, $30.5MM. $15.5MM guaranteed.

Once the Bills sorted out their coaching situation, the biggest question of their offseason centered on what they’d do with quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who was a competent starter for the club from 2015-16. The mobile Taylor has posted respectable traditional numbers and earned the praise of the analytics crowd during his 29-game starting career, but whether the former Baltimore backup is an actual franchise-caliber option is certainly up in the air. As such, it was unclear entering the offseason whether the Bills would cut ties with Taylor or retain him. They ended up keeping him on a restructured deal, which was the right call. Even if Taylor’s only a middle-of-the-road starter, the Bills weren’t going to find an upgrade in free agency, and it’s obvious in hindsight that they weren’t gung-ho on this year’s rookie class.

After reworking his contract, the Bills are only dedicating $9.71MM-plus in cap space this season to Taylor, which ranks 22nd among QBs, and it’s possible new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will be able to extract more from the 27-year-old. There’s a familiarity between the two, as Dennison previously worked with Taylor as the Ravens’ quarterbacks coach in 2014. If Taylor doesn’t perform to the Bills’ liking under Dennison this season, they’ll be able to move on from the signal-caller next winter, when they’ll have two first-rounders. The Bills could either address the position with one of those picks or package them together in a deal to move up for a potential franchise passer.

Other:

Hired Brandon Beane as general manager to replace Doug Whaley.
Hired Sean McDermott as head coach to replace Rex Ryan / Anthony Lynn (interim).
Hired Rick Dennison as offensive coordinator to replace Anthony Lynn. Hired former Rams OC Rob Boras as tight ends coach.
Hired Leslie Frazier as defensive coordinator to replace Dennis Thurman.
Declined 2018 fifth-year option for WR Sammy Watkins ($13.258M).
Learned WR Walt Powell was suspended four games (PEDs).
Claimed CB Charles James off waivers from the Colts.
Signed 13 undrafted rookie free agents.

In 2014, Whaley’s first draft as the Bills’ GM, he made the bold choice to trade up five spots in the first round for Watkins. In going from the ninth pick to No. 4 for Watkins, Whaley sent a 2015 first-rounder to Cleveland and left fellow wideouts Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. on the board. It was a questionable gamble from the start, and three years later, it looks even worse. While Watkins has been a high-end performer when on the field, he hasn’t come close to the production Evans and OBJ have logged, and injuries have kept him from realizing his potential. Watkins sat out three games in 2015 and another eight last season, when a foot problem limited him to just 28 catches and two touchdowns.

The 24-year-old Watkins still isn’t fully healthy, which left the Bills no choice but to decline his fifth-year option for 2018. That option, valued at $13.258MM, would’ve been guaranteed had Watkins been hurt a year from now. Even though they said no to the option, the Bills will still have an opportunity to bring back Watkins in 2018. They could re-sign him to a multiyear deal before free agency opens, though using the franchise tag may be the likelier route. Tagging Watkins would cost roughly $16MM, which isn’t significantly more than the value of the option.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Marcell Dareus, DT: $16,400,000
Cordy Glenn, LT: $14,200,000
Jerry Hughes, DE: $10,450,000
Tyrod Taylor, QB: $9,713,334
Charles Clay, TE: $9,000,000
LeSean McCoy, RB: $8,875,000
Kyle Williams, DT: $8,300,000
Eric Wood, C: $7,583,333
Sammy Watkins, WR: $6,343,146
Richie Incognito, G: $4,925,000

While the Bills are approaching two decades since their latest playoff trip, it seems this offseason has mostly been about changing the culture of the franchise and making long-term gains – not immediately improving the on-field product. With that in mind, an 18th straight year without a postseason berth looks realistic. However, 2017 could still be a productive season for the Bills if young players evolve into building blocks, McDermott proves capable in his new role and Taylor shows once and for all whether he’s the answer under center.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PFR Glossary: Supplemental Draft

By Zachary Links | at July 14, 2017 3:47 pm

If you weren’t paying close attention, you might have missed this year’s supplemental draft entirely. That’s because all 32 NFL teams passed up the opportunity to select either of the two players who were eligible. Although this year’s draft lacked excitement, we’ve been getting lots of requests from readers in recent days to break down the supplemental draft and explain how it works.

The supplemental draft allows NFL teams to select players who, for one reason or another, were barred from entering the regular draft in the spring. When a team selects a player in the supplemental draft, they forfeit the corresponding pick in the regular draft next year. For example, if a team selected a player in the sixth round of the supplemental draft this year, they would have had to give up their 2018 sixth round selection.

The 2017 draft marked the second consecutive year in which there were no players chosen in the supplemental draft. No one came off of the board in 2016 either, and that was a bit of a surprise since Purdue defensive tackle Ra’Zahn Howard was up for grabs. Howard wound up signing with the Texans after the draft ended (he even received a signing bonus), but he was dropped before the team dropped down to a 75-man roster.

Of course, that’s not to say that the supplemental draft is a pointless exercise. In 2015, the Rams selected Clemson offensive tackle Isaiah Battle with a fifth-round choice. The 6’6″ tackle has yet to break out, but he did spend time on the Rams’ 53-man roster and practice squad. Currently, he is on the Chiefs’ 90-man roster and looking to make the final cut.

In the past, teams have found some gems in the supplemental draft. In 2011, the Raiders selected Ohio State quarterback and future standout NFL receiver Terrelle Pryor. In 2012, the Browns used a second round pick to take the talented and troubled Josh Gordon. Other supplemental draft alums include quarterback Bernie Kosar (Browns, 1985), wide receiver Cris Carter (Eagles, 1987), running back Bobby Humphrey (Broncos, 1989), wide receiver Rob Moore (Jets, 1990), nose tackle Jamal Williams (Chargers, 1998), and linebacker Ahmad Brooks (Bengals, 2006).

There wasn’t much to see in these last two supplemental drafts, but next year’s iteration could give way to future NFL stars.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

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