Poll: Which Team Will Add Derek Carr In 2023?
Wednesday’s unusual development — Derek Carr leaving the Raiders following the news of his benching — makes it fairly clear the sides are expecting to part ways soon. This opens the door for the first full-fledged search for a new Raiders starter since they selected Carr in Round 2 in 2014, and it moves a proven quarterback to the trade block.
The Raiders backed away from trading Carr in the past, and the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo saga this year shows how presuming a separation can be premature. But it certainly looks like the Raiders plan to move Carr. There will be interested teams, but the acquiring franchise would need to pick up a $40.4MM guarantee and prove appealing enough Carr would waive his no-trade clause. Where will the 31-year-old passer end up?
A few teams will be searching for a quarterback after acquiring one last year, but some parties will be those that sat out the 2022 carousel. The Jets figure to be a Carr suitor. They have seen their 2021 investment — No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson — bomb during his two-season run as a primary starter. The defense the Jets rebuilt this offseason no longer gives Wilson a lengthy NFL onramp, and the BYU product may not be ready even with the benefit of a long runway. With Wilson perhaps on the way out midway through his rookie deal, the Jets adding Carr’s through-2025 contract would make sense.
We broached this subject upon Wilson’s initial benching last month, and it would put the Jets — who employ ex-49ers OC Mike LaFleur as their play-caller — to an interesting decision. Going after Carr in February would cut off a LaFleur-Garoppolo reunion in March. While Garoppolo’s checkered health history may now place him behind Carr in teams’ hierarchies, the former has extensive familiarity with LaFleur.
Carr, 31, becoming available also complicates the Giants’ path. They have seen a solid season from Daniel Jones, with the Dave Gettleman-era investment working with a bottom-tier receiving corps to lead the team to the playoff precipice. With a more proven option available, would the Joe Schoen–Brian Daboll duo preemptively nix Jones negotiations by trading for Carr? If Jones leads the Giants to the playoffs, the prospect of seeing him with better receivers in 2023 — though, at a much higher price — would seemingly be interesting, and he is six years younger than Carr.
Tom Brady–Raiders rumors may be relentless over the next several weeks, provided the legendary passer does not actually retire this time around. The current expectation, barring retirement, is for Brady to leave the Buccaneers to finish his career. This would open a spot for a veteran quarterback to pair with a Super Bowl nucleus, albeit one that has, particularly on offense, underwhelmed to an alarming degree this season. The Bucs were in the quarterback market during Brady’s first retirement, but timing also may rule them out of the Carr sweepstakes. A Carr move in February — a month before Brady’s free agency — would lead arguably the greatest quarterback ever out of town. That would be quite the strange ending to this memorable Bucs chapter.
If Carson Wentz‘s comeback does not produce a Commanders playoff berth, he could well be on the move for a third straight offseason. Washington can cut bait free of charge. This franchise has searched for QB continuity ever since the Kirk Cousins franchise tag years, having entered six straight seasons with a new starter. Carr, who has missed two regular-season games due to injury in his career, would provide that.
He would also cost more than Wentz, who remains attached to a $32MM-per-year Eagles extension he inked in 2019. Wentz is tied to just $20MM and $21MM base salaries over the next two years. Carr’s deal includes future bases of $32.9MM (guaranteed in a trade), $41.9MM ($7.5MM of which would be guaranteed) and $41.2MM. The Commanders employ Jack Del Rio, who coached Carr for three seasons, as defensive coordinator.
The Saints traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Eagles and ditched their original 2022 QB plan early this season. Benching Jameis Winston for Andy Dalton has not moved the needle in terms of wins, though Pro Football Focus surprisingly rates Dalton as a top-five QB this season. Dalton’s deal expires at season’s end. New Orleans, per usual, resides 32nd in terms of projected 2023 cap space. The Saints sit $53.9MM over the projected 2023 salary ceiling, per OverTheCap. While Mickey Loomis has gotten out of worse predicaments, adding Carr’s contract would be a new challenge for the seasoned GM. The Saints employ Carr’s first NFL HC (Dennis Allen), though he was only with Oakland for a few Carr games before being fired.
Carolina has attempted bigger swings at QB over the past two offseasons, offering a first-round pick and change for Matthew Stafford and offering three and change for Deshaun Watson. The Panthers are preparing to chase a QB again. Is re-signing Sam Darnold a viable option, or will David Tepper try and make a notable upgrade. Carr might not qualify as a huge splash, but he would likely provide an upgrade for a team that has intriguing pieces at several positions.
Neither of the teams that made the Matt Ryan trade have surefire answers for 2023, though Carr might not be a true fit for either the Colts or Falcons. Indianapolis is barreling toward securing its first top-five pick since the Peyton Manning injury year produced Andrew Luck. After trying veterans repeatedly, Indianapolis could have a chance to land an impact prospect. Desmond Ridder being an unchallenged starter would be a risk for the Falcons next year, but they still are on the rebuilding track. That said, Arthur Smith is going into Year 3. Carr pairing with Kyle Pitts and Drake London would be interesting.
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this developing situation in the comments section.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Daniel Jones
Bounce-back seasons from Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones represent the main on-field reason the Giants are close to becoming one of the more surprising playoff teams in recent memory. Injury issues have dogged the would-be rebuilding squad throughout, but the play of their now-two-time Pro Bowl running back and fourth-year quarterback has them at 8-6-1. The Giants hold a 92% chance, per FiveThirtyEight, of making the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
The subject of Barkley and Jones’ future looms, however. Both Giants offensive cornerstones are on track for free agency. This situation reminds of the Titans’ quandary in 2020, when they had both Derrick Henry and the resurgent Ryan Tannehill as UFAs-to-be. Tennessee franchise-tagged its All-Pro running back and re-signed its resurgent starting QB. Will the Giants try to play this the same way?
On the Barkley front, that would be the simplest solution. Next year’s running back tag is projected to come in at $10.1MM — a steep drop from the projected nonexclusive QB tag of $32.5MM. A $10.1MM tag, as a bridge to a top-market extension, would not clog New York’s cap. After needing to jettison veterans this year for cap purposes, with Barkley trade talks even emerging, the Giants are projected to hold nearly $60MM in cap space. That number sits in the top three for 2023.
The Giants already turned down Jones’ fifth-year option. This was before he showed considerable progress in Brian Daboll‘s offense, but still. A team that passed on a $22MM Jones option salary circling back to tag him for $10MM more would represent a strange path — and one that would hamstring Big Blue come free agency. But the Giants’ Jones situation, especially with the team on the brink of a wild-card spot, will be a key 2023 subplot.
The 2011 CBA introduced the fifth-year option for first-rounders, and the first batch of decisions arrived in 2014. From then until 2022, no team has passed on a quarterback’s fifth-year option and later re-signed him. Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Brandon Weeden, Robert Griffin III, EJ Manuel, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins and Josh Rosen either played out their four-year rookie deals or were moved off the roster before those contracts expired. Jones’ efficient fourth season could break some new NFL ground, but the sides will need to come together on an atypical deal — one that may land in currently uninhabited QB salary territory.
Tannehill re-signed with the Titans on a four-year, $118.5MM deal just before the 2020 league year began. The former top-10 Dolphins draftee was coming off a stunning season in his first Titans campaign, piloting the Titans to the AFC championship game. Jones has rocketed from 22nd in QBR last season to 11th this year, but the Giants’ pass-catching cadre has capped his rise to a degree. Jones has 13 touchdown passes in 15 games. Despite a ransacked receiving arsenal, the former No. 6 overall pick has limited his turnovers. Jones’ 1.1 interception rate is the league’s best mark. He is completing 66.5% of his passes, albeit at just 6.8 yards per attempt, and has already established a new career rushing high (617 yards). This still would qualify as more workmanlike season than true breakthrough, but the Giants equipping Jones with better pass catchers could unlock another level for the oft-doubted Duke product.
Jones’ history, present production and ties to the Dave Gettleman regime complicate a potential Joe Schoen-led negotiation. The rookie GM said the Giants discussed a deal with Barkley but not Jones during their bye week, indicating a clear priority hierarchy. That would make sense, given the first-rounders’ accomplishments. Only one quarterback (Tom Brady, an outlier in just about every way) is tied to an average salary between $14MM and $29.5MM. That is a pretty wide range to explore.
Last week’s YouTube TV Sunday Ticket agreement should soon provide cap clarity, but teams are operating as if the cap will come in between $222MM and $225MM. That estimate is nearly $30MM north of where the cap was when Tannehill inked his deal, and Jones guiding this Giants team to the postseason could prompt him — his struggles from 2019-21 notwithstanding — to ask for a contract worth more than $30MM per year. Four passers (Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan) are tied to deals averaging between $30-$35MM per year; those deals sit 10th-13th on the quarterback salary spectrum. Such an ask would test the Giants.
If the Giants let Jones reach free agency, they will not be in a good position to draft his replacement. They are set to pick outside the top 10 for the first time since 2017. The past three offseasons have brought tremendous QB movement, opening new doors for teams seeking upgrades. The free agent market is tentatively slated to include Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett and Mike White. Brady has not committed to 2023 and would not seem to line up with the Giants’ timeline, while the Seahawks want to keep Smith. UFA-to-be Lamar Jackson will not hit the market.
Tannehill and Derek Carr seem the two likeliest trade candidates of note; the Raiders look to have ignited the Carr market by benching him Wednesday. Both players have proven far more than Jones, but each is much older. The Titans passer will be 35 next season; the now-separated Raiders QB will be 32. Jones will turn 26 in 2023. Carr has obviously proven much more than Jones, and it will be interesting to see if the Giants are connected to him. But Jones has outplayed Carr (league-high 14 INTs) this season and almost certainly will not require a $40MM-per-year contract. How much will it ultimately take to keep him off the market?
The Giants eschewing the trade or free agency routes and focusing on Jones could produce another prove-it season — likely with better receivers — on a one-year deal. The team could also go through with a medium-term agreement, with CBS Sports’ Joel Corry comparing this situation to the Jaguars’ Blake Bortles talks in 2018. The Jags gave their shaky starter a three-year, $54MM deal that included $26.5MM fully guaranteed. With that contract occurring under a $177.2MM salary cap, a similar Jones arrangement would undoubtedly check in with a much higher value — likely north of $25MM AAV.
If the price escalates much further, the Giants might be inclined to examine other options. The Bortles re-signing did not age well, and Jacksonville took on dead money by cutting him a year later. That mid-tier investment shows the risks of betting on an inconsistent quarterback, but the Giants going in the other direction could disrupt the Daboll-, Jones- and Barkley-geared ascent this year’s team has made.
Whether the Giants’ new regime pays Jones or tries to acquire an upgrade, the team’s 2022 improvement and the Jones-Barkley free agency challenge will give Big Blue a much higher profile entering the 2023 offseason compared to where the franchise resided over the past several years.
Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, much is still to be decided both in terms of playoff positioning and the order of the upcoming draft. Five teams are still eligible to land the top pick.
The Texans remain in pole position to hold the No. 1 spot, but their win over the Titans (coupled with the Bears’ losing streak extending to eight games) leaves Chicago just a half-game away. The fact that the Bears would likely select a defensive player rather than a quarterback with the top pick adds considerable intrigue to the potential implications of them ending up with that slot.
With the Browns continuing to struggle even with Deshaun Watson back from suspension, there is a distinct possibility that four first-rounders which changed hands (including Cleveland’s top 2023 pick, part of the package they sent to Houston for Watson) land in the top 10. Another premium selection would obviously soften the blow of losing out on the No. 1 spot from the Texans’ perspective, should that take place.
The final Wild Card spot in each conference is still being contested by several teams, resulting in a logjam of 7-8 squads in the middle of the order. Several head-to-head matchups will be played out between those clubs, which could lead to plenty of change in their positioning over the next two weeks. The race for both the AFC and NFC South titles will also have a significant impact on the final order, given the average (at best) record each division’s winner will have at the end of the regular season.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 17:
- Houston Texans: 2-12-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-12
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-11
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-10-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-10
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Carolina Panthers: 6-9
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-9
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-8
- Tennessee Titans: 7-8
- New England Patriots: 7-8
- New York Jets: 7-8
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-8
- Green Bay Packers: 7-8
- Detroit Lions: 7-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-8
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-8
- Washington Commanders: 7-7-1
- New York Giants: 8-6-1
- Los Angeles Chargers: 9-6
- Baltimore Ravens: 10-5
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
- Dallas Cowboys: 11-4
- Cincinnati Bengals: 11-4
- Kansas City Chiefs: 12-3
- Minnesota Vikings: 12-3
- Buffalo Bills: 12-3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 13-2
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice
Notable 2023 Pro Bowl Incentives
The NFL announced their 2023 Pro Bowl rosters this evening. Besides the ability to list the accolade on their career resume (plus the monetary bonus that comes from participating in and winning the game), many players had a financial incentive for wanting a Pro Bowl nod. We’ve collected some of the notable Pro Bowl contract incentives below, most via ESPN’s Field Yates on Twitter (unless noted).
WR Davante Adams, Raiders: $250K- TE Mark Andrews, Ravens: $250K
- LT Terron Armstead, Dolphins: $650K
- LB Demario Davis, Saints: $500K
- WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: $250K
- CB Marlon Humphrey, Ravens: $250K
- WR Terry McLaurin, Commanders: $250K (via CBS Sports’ Joel Corry (on Twitter))
- S Jordan Poyer, Bills: $500K
- QB Geno Smith, Seahawks: $500K
Geno Smith‘s contract bonus came via a specific incentive that required not only Pro Bowl recognition but 20 touchdown passes, according to Yates (on Twitter). Smith hit that TD mark back in Week 13. The impending free agent is set to cash in following a breakout campaign during his age-32 season.
Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard has a more complex bonus worked into his contract. According to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry (on Twitter), Howard is one step closer to earning a $1MM bonus thanks to his Pro Bowl nod, but he’ll also need Miami to improve in either wins, points allowed, TDs allowed, total defense, interceptions, average net yards allowed per rushing play, or turnover margin.
Speaking of the Dolphins, the organization saved a chunk of future money since one of their players didn’t make the Pro Bowl roster. As Daniel Oyefusi of the Miami Herald tweets, Tua Tagovailoa‘s fifth-year option would have increased from $22MM to $28MM if he earned a Pro Bowl nod.
Poll: Where Will Tom Brady Play In 2023?
One of this season’s most disappointing teams, the Buccaneers still have a chance to host a playoff game. But their Tom Brady partnership may be nearing an end. The all-time great is viewed as more likely than not to be elsewhere in 2023.
This would open the door to either an unusual free agency or a second retirement. Winding down his age-45 season, Brady will likely not be sought after on the level he was in 2020. His career-low QBR (since the stat’s 2006 introduction, at least), lowest yards per attempt figure since 2002 (6.3) and age will undoubtedly give teams pause. But if the 15-time Pro Bowler wants to keep pushing the quarterback age boundary — a recently discussed scenario — there stands to be a market.
It still makes sense to include the 49ers here. They passed on a true pursuit in 2020, when Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off a season in which he piloted the team to Super Bowl LIV, but Brady was loosely linked to seeking a move to his native Bay Area during his mini-retirement this offseason. The Bucs shut down the prospect of trading Brady’s rights anywhere. San Francisco has an again-injured Garoppolo tied to a restructured deal that prevents a franchise tag — a similar arrangement to Brady, who also cannot be tagged thanks to his 2022 restructure — and Trey Lance will enter 2023 having only played one full season in his five post-high school years. The 49ers boast a rare skill-position trio that includes three All-Pros, and their situation could open the door to Lance spending a year learning behind arguably the greatest to ever do it.
Josh McDaniels looks like he will make it to a second Raiders season, even though his first has not gone as hoped. McDaniels taking over as Patriots OC led to Brady morphing from a promising young quarterback to a superstar, and he was Brady’s OC for 11 years. The Raiders have a narrow window to trade Derek Carr, who will see $40.5MM guaranteed on Day 3 of the 2023 league year. A Carr-Davante Adams breakup might not go over well among the longtime friends, but McDaniels and fellow ex-Patriots staffer Dave Ziegler are calling the shots. The Raiders pursued Brady in 2020, and he famously had a spirited reaction to the then-Jon Gruden-led team backing off.
Tua Tagovailoa has a rather vocal cast of supporters, and the Dolphins did just pay a stiff penalty for attempting to bring Brady and Sean Payton to town. Payton seems out of the question now, with Mike McDaniel faring well in his first year, and Tagovailoa still sits second in QBR. The Dolphins have one of the great speed-receiver duos in NFL history, and vice chairman Bruce Beal is on the TB12 board. Though, Beal’s central role in the tampering scandal is believed to have affected his standing with the team. Would Stephen Ross try to land one of the assets that ultimately cost a first-round pick?
While it would look quite strange to see Brady with the Jets, they have both young weaponry and a vastly improved defense. That combination wooed Brady to Tampa. Timeline-wise, the Jets mirror the 49ers at the QB position. They roster the passer taken one spot ahead of Lance (Zach Wilson), though the Jets have more intel on their top-three QB pick than the Niners do theirs. Mike White is a free agent at season’s end, and the team is already being connected to veteran options — Garoppolo and Carr among them. Brady probably should be at least mentioned here.
Brady and Mike Vrabel played together for nine seasons, and the Titans were part of the free agency derby two years ago. They bowed out before it ultimately came down to a Bucs-or-Chargers call, and Ryan Tannehill has one season remaining on the extension the Titans gave him shortly after their Brady pursuit ended. The Titans cannot match the above-referenced teams for weaponry, however.
Bill Belichick did not exactly equip Mac Jones for a second-year leap, naming a career defensive coach (Matt Patricia) as de facto OC. Jones has regressed in Year 2, and there was a brief QB controversy with fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe. Uncertainty about the 2021 first-rounder’s long-term standing has entered the equation. If LeBron James could return to Cleveland, Brady rejoining Belichick and Robert Kraft for a farewell season should at least be floated. Brady and Kraft remain close, as evidenced by the Bucs QB traveling to the Patriots owner’s wedding during a Bucs road trip earlier this season. But the Patriots would need to get to work on receiving help. They almost certainly would not be the favorites if Brady decided to play a 24th season.
Reports of friction between Brady and Bruce Arians and Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have emerged over the past two seasons. Arians’ exit has undoubtedly affected this Bucs iteration, which has dealt with issues along its offensive line throughout the year as well. But the Bucs have fallen from the second-ranked scoring offense in 2021 — a season in which Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yards and 43 TDs — to 28th. The Bucs’ chances at winning a terrible NFC South aside, they may soon face the prospect of the Brady bill coming due. The Bucs not re-signing Brady before his contract expires in March would mean a $35.1MM dead-money hit due to the void years on his deal.
Brady is the only 45-year-old starting QB in NFL history, and retirement was believed to be the direction he would go at this season’s outset. As he plays out a down season, there will be more calls for a true retirement this time. A 10-year deal to be FOX’s lead analyst awaits.
As this offseason showed, teams are more willing to follow through with big QB swings. Complex QB offseasons have been the 2020s norm. More teams could potentially enter the mix, if they are convinced Brady’s struggles this year can be attributed more to his circumstances and less on a decline. Unless Brady calls it quits immediately after this season, the topic of his 2023 employer will gain steam. How will it end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this oft-discussed player in the comments section.
Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order
Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.
At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.
The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:
- Houston Texans: 1-12-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-11
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
- Carolina Panthers: 5-9
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
- Green Bay Packers: 6-8
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
- New England Patriots: 7-7
- New York Jets: 7-7
- Detroit Lions: 7-7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
- Tennessee Titans: 7-7
- Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
- Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
- New York Giants: 8-5-1
- Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
- Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
- Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
- Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
- Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
- Buffalo Bills: 11-3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.
Free Agent Stock Watch: David Montgomery
Bears running back David Montgomery will soon experience the challenges of a free agent running back in today’s NFL. A third-round draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Montgomery is currently in a contract year for a team that may not have reason to commit to him long-term. The final few games of the season could determine how the next stage of Montgomery’s career plays out. 
Montgomery entered this season as the Bears’ No. 1 running back with backup Khalil Herbert providing the team with a strong secondary option. Montgomery had produced two strong seasons to kick off his career. As a rookie starting eight games, Montgomery racked up 889 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, adding 185 yards and a touchdown through the air as a receiving back. In his sophomore season, Montgomery showed a ton of promise, rushing for 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns and catching 54 passes for 438 yards and two touchdowns.
Last year, Chicago drafted Herbert in the sixth-round to supplement their rushing attack. Montgomery’s production slipped a bit as Herbert shared some of the offense, but he still produced 849 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns and showed he was the top receiving back with 301 yards on 42 catches. Herbert got his opportunities, though, and contributed 433 rushing yards and two touchdowns as a rookie.
This year the story has changed a little bit. Despite the fact that, coming into today’s game, Montgomery had started all but one game and appeared in two more games than Herbert, who had missed the team’s last three games with a hip injury, Montgomery trailed Herbert by two rushing yards. Montgomery plays about 67% of the Bears’ offensive snaps on average, while Herbert averages around 37%. Still, until today’s loss against the Eagles, the backup running back, Herbert, was outgaining the starting running back, Montgomery, with an average rushing yards per game of 64.3 to 53.4. Montgomery has maintained his role as the team’s top receiving back this season.
After sitting out of his fourth straight game today, Herbert is set to return next week to help Chicago in its last three games of the regular season. Montgomery will have a bit of an added challenge in the final few games of the season to show his worth to the Bears offense with his more-productive teammate back in the lineup. At 3-11, already eliminated from postseason contention, Montgomery will only have the final three games of the regular season to make his case.
If Montgomery hits free agency, he will join a stacked free agent class of running backs. After his fifth-year option was declined, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs will be a free agent this offseason. Barring any new extensions before the end of the season, Giants running back Saquon Barkley, Eagles running back Miles Sanders, and Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will all join Montgomery and Jacobs on the free agent market. Additionally, key contributors in Browns running back Kareem Hunt, Lions running back Jamaal Williams, Bills running back Devin Singletary, and Patriots running back Damien Harris will all hit free agency, as well. Even a score of reliable backups will be available in Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison, Cincinnati’s Samaje Perine, New York’s James Robinson, Miami’s Raheem Mostert, and Carolina’s D’Onta Foreman.
Needless to say, Montgomery will have a ton of competition in the free agent market. Regardless of the competition, what would a deal with Montgomery look like? Realistically, these days, for a running back that isn’t a super star, a three-year deal is standard. Star backs are set to earn around $14MM to $16MM per year, perhaps more if a suitor wants to set the market high for a free agent target. Strong starters will earn around $10MM to $13MM and second-tier backs will be in the range of about $6MM to $8MM.
Statistically compared to recent contracts, Montgomery matches up closest with a player like Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette. Fournette recently signed a three-year, $21MM deal after a contract year that could look vaguely similar to what Montgomery is projected to do this year. There are two factors in Montgomery’s favor, though. Montgomery doesn’t have the significant injury history that Fournette does, and Montgomery has been far more consistent with his production year in, year out. This could point to either a three-year deal with a slightly larger average annual value or a similar annual amount with another year tacked on. If Montgomery were in a vacuum, he would likely demand something like a three-year, $24MM contract or a four-year, $28MM deal.
Unfortunately for Montgomery, he is not in a vacuum. With the excessive amount of competition he will face in the free agent market, Montgomery’s value may be diluted. It will be hard to convince a team to shell out big money for Montgomery if they can just sign a lesser deal to one of many options. This may lead Montgomery to seek a team-friendly deal in order to stay in Chicago. With the existing connection and chemistry, Montgomery may be able to get more value out of his current team than he would testing the markets.
Taking all of this into account, Montgomery still will likely earn a three-year contract, possibly even four- with his superior durability. In a diluted market or in a team friendly deal, I could see Montgomery signing with an average annual value of $6MM or $7MM. It would make sense to see Montgomery end up with a three-year, $19.5MM or four-year, $24MM deal this offseason. Whether he wants to stand pat in Chicago or test the free agent waters, Montgomery will have three more games to show what he’s worth.
Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order
The NFL now has its first teams eliminated from playoff contention. The Texans and Bears, as they essentially have been doing throughout this season, are playing for next year. Other eliminations will soon follow, as the league’s playoff picture heats up.
Through that lens, the 2023 draft order will become an increasingly more pertinent topic. The 2023 draft will present an interesting subplot near its outset. Traded picks are set to produce early selections for the Seahawks, Lions and Eagles. Each of those picks currently land in the top five, as the teams on the other end of those trades — the Broncos, Rams and Saints — have disappointed, spectacularly so in Los Angeles and Denver’s cases.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order would look entering Week 14:
- Houston Texans: 1-10-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-9
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Carolina Panthers: 4-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-8
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-8
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-8-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-8
- Green Bay Packers: 5-8
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5-7
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-7
- Detroit Lions: 5-7
- Los Angeles Chargers: 6-6
- New England Patriots: 6-6
- Washington Commanders: 7-5-1
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6*
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-5*
- Tennessee Titans: 7-5*
- New York Jets: 7-5*
- New York Giants: 7-4-1*
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)*
- Baltimore Ravens: 8-4*
- Cincinnati Bengals: 8-4*
- Dallas Cowboys: 9-3*
- Kansas City Chiefs: 9-3*
- Minnesota Vikings: 10-2*
- Buffalo Bills: 9-3*
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-1*
* = Denotes playoff team
The 2023 first round will resemble 2008 and 2016, when the Patriots were docked their Round 1 pick for their respective “gate” scandals. This year’s Dolphins saga never developed “gate” status, but the team lost a 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-rounder due to the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering case. Thus, a 31-pick first round will commence.
While the Broncos, Rams and Browns lost their first-round picks due to trades for quarterbacks, the Saints passed theirs to the Eagles in this year’s pre-draft trade that allowed New Orleans a path toward moving up for Chris Olave. The No. 16 pick which was initially transferred from the Colts to the Eagles in 2021’s Carson Wentz trade was then moved to the Saints, netting Philadelphia a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 second.
Poll: Who Will Be Jets’ Starting QB In 2023?
Last week’s Jets quarterback change may not be a long-term move, per Robert Saleh, but Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com notes the expectation is Mike White will keep his new gig against the Vikings and Bills over the next two weeks. White faring reasonably well against those upper-echelon teams could keep Zach Wilson out of the picture for a while.
The Jets have assembled a quality defense quicker than most expected. After ranking last in both total defense and scoring last season, the Jets are a top-five team in both categories in Saleh’s second season. Their defense sits fourth in DVOA, creating legitimate playoff aspirations for the first time since 2015. The Jets have a chance to snap the NFL’s longest playoff drought (11 seasons), leading Saleh to yank Wilson. That move is atypical for a player with Wilson’s draft pedigree and injects uncertainty into the Jets’ quarterback plans beyond 2022.
No quarterback selected in the top five has been benched for performance reasons before the end of his second season since the Bengals sat down 1999 No. 3 overall pick Akili Smith midway through the 2000 campaign. Wilson being shut down represents an obvious red flag about his future. Will the Jets be able to pivot back to last year’s No. 2 overall pick?
QBR places Wilson in 25th, actually two spots ahead of Aaron Rodgers, after the BYU product finished 30th in this metric as a rookie. Passer rating is far less kind; no starter checks in behind Wilson’s 72.6 mark there. Joe Flacco remains the Jets’ touchdown pass leader, with five, despite having exited after three starts to clear another path for Wilson. The Jets used a top-three pick on a quarterback twice in a four-year span, but while Sam Darnold was not holding a well-built defense back, Wilson was. Rumblings of teammates’ waning confidence in the fast-rising prospect surfacing this past offseason certainly open the door to the Jets needing to consider other options for 2023.
White torched a battered Bears secondary, doing so more than a year after he posted the first Jets’ 400-yard passing performance since Vinny Testaverde in 2000. The former Cowboys fifth-round pick has been with the Jets since 2019, initially landing a practice squad gig, and has enjoyed spurts of popularity over the past two seasons. The Jets demoted Flacco for the ex-Day 3 draftee earlier this season. White’s next two performances will help illustrate if the Jets can legitimately consider him for their 2023 starting gig. White, 27, will need to be re-signed next year. His putting together more quality starts will complicate that process for the Jets.
Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur‘s San Francisco ties create a natural path for Jimmy Garoppolo, whom the 49ers cannot retain via the franchise tag due to the sides’ August restructure. Then committed to Wilson, the Jets were not closely linked to Garoppolo during this year’s long-running (and ultimately fruitless) trade sweepstakes, but this could easily become a much-rumored landing spot for the ex-Patriots second-rounder. Will the 49ers, however, be so quick to move on and give the keys back to the largely untested Trey Lance?
A veteran deal would mean cutting into the advantage Wilson’s rookie contract creates, but if Wilson cannot do enough to stay on the field, the Jets need to regroup to capitalize on the defense they have built. The Broncos took this route in 2018, which would have been No. 26 overall pick Paxton Lynch‘s third season. Denver waived the first-round bust months after signing Case Keenum.
The Raiders have not lived up to expectations in Josh McDaniels‘ first season, and the second-chance HC — who is likely to return for another season — has a slim window to unload Derek Carr‘s three-year, $121.4MM contract. Three days after Super Bowl LVII, Carr is owed $40.5MM — his 2023 salary and $7.5MM of his 2024 base — creating an avenue for a trade. The Jets would need to act swiftly, and it would wall off a Garoppolo path a month before it could open. But Carr could be available ahead of his age-32 season, should McDaniels want a fresh start.
On the other end of the timing spectrum, Rodgers could conceivably be available next summer. While Rodgers trade speculation has ultimately provided endless content and no action, the Packers structured his record-setting $50.3MM-per-year contract to include a 2023 option bonus ($58.3MM) that can be paid out at any point from the start of the 2023 league year to the day before next season. It would cost the Packers only $15.8MM in dead money, per OverTheCap, to trade the contract after June 1. The Jets would be making a familiar move, trading for a future Hall of Fame Packers QB in his late 30s, but this scenario will undoubtedly be mentioned. Rodgers, who backtracked on his trade demand in 2021 and passed on leaving Green Bay this year, does not have a no-trade clause.
For the first time since 2016, they are not poised to have a top-12 pick. What other options would be available for Gang Green? The Seahawks are aiming to re-sign ex-Jet Geno Smith, while Daniel Jones hopping New York teams seems unlikely as well. Gardner Minshew and brief Jet Teddy Bridgewater are also slated to hit the market. Tom Brady, as it should be at least noted, is also due for free agency. If the Lions land their QB prospect in the draft, Jared Goff stands to be available. As this year’s quarterback carousel showed, more options could be on the table.
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this unusual situation in the comments section.
This Date In Transactions History: Raiders Sign TE Darren Waller Off Ravens Practice Squad
Thanks to hindsight, we’ll occasionally find that some of the NFL’s best transactions initially went under the radar. That was the case on this date in 2018, when the Raiders signed a little-known tight end/wide receiver off the Ravens’ practice squad. Fast forward to today, and that tight end is one of the highest-paid players at his position.
On November 26, 2018, the Raiders added tight end Darren Waller off the Ravens’ practice squad.
The 2015 sixth-round pick didn’t make a whole lot of noise during his first three-plus seasons in the NFL. Baltimore initially had Waller playing as a wide receiver, and the Georgia Tech product had 12 receptions through his first two years in the league. After being slapped with a four-game suspension in 2016, Waller was hit with a full-season ban in 2017 for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.
That suspension proved to be the nail in the coffin for the wideout/tight end in Baltimore. After sitting out the 2017 campaign, he was cut at the end of the 2018 preseason. He later caught on with Baltimore’s practice squad, which where he spent the first chunk of the season. With rookies Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews and veteran Maxx Williams firmly above Waller on the depth chart, it didn’t seem like the now-pass-catching TE had much of a future in Baltimore.
Then, on November 26, the Raiders came calling. The Raiders didn’t necessarily need a TE but believed in Waller’s pass-catching ability and immediately gave him a spot on the active roster. The tight end has six catches in four games while playing behind Pro Bowler Jared Cook.
The organization’s gamble worked out. Waller exploded in 2019 with Cook out of the picture, finishing the campaign with 90 receptions for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns. He followed that up with an even better season in 2020, as Waller earned his first Pro Bowl nod after finishing with 107 catches for 1,196 yards and nine scores. 2021 was a bit of a disappointment for the tight end; he was limited to only 11 games while hauling in 55 catches for 665 yards.
Still, the Raiders were clearly convinced that Waller’s 2019/2020 performances were sustainable, and they inked him to a three-year, $51MM extension this past offseason, making him the highest-paid tight end in the NFL in terms of average annual value. The 30-year-old is currently on injured reserve, and in five games this year, he’s collected only 16 catches. Considering the mounting absences and declining production, there have been some whispers that the Raiders are growing frustrated with the star.
Still, even if the Raiders grow to regret the extension they gave to Waller, there’s no denying the brilliance of the move they made on this date four years ago today.