Poll: Who Will Sign Odell Beckham Jr.?
In what will be a key point not only on Odell Beckham Jr.‘s rehab timeline but perhaps in this year’s Super Bowl chase as well, the standout wide receiver is expected to be fully cleared for football work soon. Around nine months after suffering his second ACL tear, Beckham will be ready to practice for his new team. Who will that team be?
A free agent of this caliber is rarely available at this point in the season. Whichever team signs Beckham will see its skill-position corps receive a stretch-run jolt. However, injury concerns and Beckham’s desire for a multiyear contract complicate this unique chase. Beckham’s Browns stay also showed how adding him can backfire in a poor fit, injecting some risk into his 2022 equation. That said, teams pursuing him will be doing so based off his quick-impact Rams stay. The Rams needed OBJ to reach Super Bowl LVI. Despite the steady run of injuries that date back to his Giants days, that will be what drives a signing.
Rams connections overshadowed every other team’s Beckham ties for most of the offseason. Everyone from Les Snead to Sean McVay to Kevin Demoff expressed optimism Beckham would return to Los Angeles. With the Rams 3-5 and ranking 31st offensively, they do not appear the favorites any longer. The Rams ($4.2MM in cap space) have received little from their skill positions beyond Cooper Kupp; Beckham would boost the sinking contender’s cause. This franchise has also made a habit of landing big fish.
If he is eyeing a multiyear commitment, going back to an offense he knows well would make sense. Then again, Beckham expressed disappointment in the Rams’ previous offer. Although Sean McVay said last month the team had not made its best proposal yet, will such an offer come given the defending Super Bowl champions’ current state?
The Cowboys ($6.9MM in cap space) may have taken over as the OBJ favorites. Dallas cornerstones like Micah Parsons and Ezekiel Elliott are recruiting him. More importantly, Jerry Jones appears to be as well. In discussing OBJ’s market with NFL personnel, Pro Football Focus’ Doug Kyed came away with the Cowboys as the frontrunners here.
Beckham, 30, would slot in alongside CeeDee Lamb as the Cowboys’ top weapons. Dallas’ auxiliary troops have not shown too much this season. Of course, Dak Prescott‘s injury contributed to the limited production from Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup. And the Cowboys just signed a player coming off a December ACL tear (Gallup). While they appear ready to gamble on Beckham, that partnership will mean Lamb’s complementary pieces will each be fresh off ACL rehab. But the Cowboys may have their best Super Bowl opportunity since 2016, when they claimed the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The team may be on its way to the No. 5 seed this year, but a dominant pass rush has changed its equation compared to recent years.
The team viewed as the second-likeliest to add Beckham, per Kyed, the Bills are not as well-versed in attracting free agents. But Josh Allen‘s ascent has changed the franchise’s trajectory. Von Miller making the atypical decision to choose Buffalo over L.A. could bring Beckham to follow suit. Miller has been banging this drum for months. Earlier this season, the Bills were not viewed as a key player in this market. With Jamison Crowder (fractured ankle) out of the picture and the Bills encountering more defensive injuries, has that changed?
Beckham is believed to prefer a warm-weather city, per Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telgram, who adds the eight-year veteran would change his mind for “the right offer” (Twitter link). The Bills rarely have a market advantage over their competition, so needing to navigate that battle is not exactly new.
The three-time Pro Bowler also mentioned the Packers and a Giants reunion as possibilities. Neither of these would check the warm-weather box, but the Packers were in on Beckham in 2021 and have been mentioned as a suitor intermittently for the past several months. But Green Bay has dropped to 3-6. The NFL’s smallest-market franchise is also now going year to year with Aaron Rodgers. That status affected Davante Adams‘ interest in staying with the Packers. Green Bay needs Beckham more than Dallas, Buffalo or L.A., with Adams’ departure crushing the team’s receiving corps. Considering the Packers’ modern history with big-ticket free agents, Rodgers’ post-2022 plans, and the team’s 2022 performance, this might be a tough sell.
Giants GM Joe Schoen said Beckham would be considered, but he did not meet with the Jerry Reese-era draftee when he visited following Sterling Shepard‘s injury. Like just about every team Beckham is considering, the Giants looked into Brandin Cooks and Jerry Jeudy before the trade deadline. The Giants may need an impact receiver more than the Packers, who at least roster Allen Lazard. No Giants wideout has totaled more than 250 yards. Their leading receiver, Darius Slayton, spent the offseason in Brian Daboll‘s doghouse.
Big Blue came into this season on a rebuilding track. The team was not viewed as likely to consider trading even a Day 2 pick for a wideout, and it traded a talented but injury-prone receiver (Kadarius Toney). This is not the regime that traded Beckham to Cleveland, but would Schoen be willing to sign the injury-prone vet beyond 2022?
The Vikings and Chiefs were also mentioned as Beckham suitors, but each made moves ahead of the deadline. Each team gave up Day 2 capital — for T.J. Hockenson and Toney, respectively — for weaponry already. Kansas City looked into Cooks as well and was in the OBJ mix last year. Given the Chiefs’ arms race with the Bills, they probably cannot be fully ruled out.
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this rare in-season market in the comments section.
Poll: Who Will Win NFC West?
Housing the defending Super Bowl champions and the conference’s runner-up, this year’s NFC West was set to feature another chapter in the reinvigorated Rams-49ers rivalry. But both would-be contenders have offered inconsistency that has further muddled the NFC.
As the Sean McVay–Kyle Shanahan series has seen injuries and roster deficiencies cloud its sixth season, the Seahawks have gone from a team projected to be close to a top-five 2023 draft choice to one with legitimate aspirations at a home playoff game. With the Cardinals also within two games of first place — ahead of a key Hawks-Cards Week 9 tilt — this division still features many questions at the midseason point.
Winners of this division three times during McVay’s first five seasons, the Rams have been unable to generate much offense involving anyone beyond Cooper Kupp. After Andrew Whitworth retired, Los Angeles re-signed his backup — Joe Noteboom — to a three-year, $40MM deal and brought back center Brian Allen. Both Noteboom (out for the season) and Allen (five missed games) have seen injuries define their 2022 slates. The team let three-year guard starter Austin Corbett walk in free agency (Panthers), and the Rams’ guard spots have endured a litany of setbacks. Both Rams starting guards (David Edwards, Coleman Shelton) remain on IR. These issues have limited the Rams considerably. No McVay-led Rams offense has ranked outside the top 11; Los Angeles enters Week 9 with the league’s 30th-ranked offense.
While no problems have surfaced after Kupp’s extension agreement, Stafford, 34, has not started well since signing a four-year, $160MM deal. The 14th-year veteran battled an elbow issue throughout the offseason and is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt — down from 8.1 in 2021 — and enters Week 9 with seven touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Allen Robinson posting 22 catches for 254 yards in seven games has also been an issue, with the Rams having signed him to a three-year, $46.5MM deal that included $30MM guaranteed. Football Outsiders gives the Rams just a 21.6% playoff shot. No defending champion has missed out since the 2016 Broncos.
San Francisco making the call to bring back Jimmy Garoppolo became vital after Trey Lance‘s Week 2 injury. Garoppolo inconsistency remains, but that should not surprise. The 49ers traded two future first-rounders for Lance because of their incumbent starter’s low ceiling. Of course, the 49ers are 2-for-2 in NFC title game berths with Garoppolo at the controls. But this team has battled major injury problems as well, seeing key contributors on each of their three defensive levels miss time or land on IR. That said, the 49ers still rank first defensively. Following an October swoon, the unit should be expected to stabilize once some of its pieces return.
The 49ers outflanking the Rams in the Christian McCaffrey sweepstakes made a major difference in the teams’ Week 8 rematch, and although McCaffrey’s injury history figures to inject nervousness into the equation for 49er fans the rest of the way, the prospect of CMC, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle teaming up probably gives San Francisco (67.3% playoff odds, per Football Outsiders) the highest ceiling in this division. But Seattle (71.9%) remains an obvious threat.
Moving on from two of the best players in team history — Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner — the Seahawks entered the season with long odds to win the division. They hold a one-game lead on the 49ers, thanks largely to the stunning re-emergence of Geno Smith. Off the starter radar since the I.K. Enemkpali punching incident back in 2015, Smith made one start between the 2015 and 2020 seasons. The Seahawks were able to re-sign him to a one-year, $3.5MM deal on April 14, indicating the tepid interest leaguewide. After beating out Drew Lock, Smith (13 TD passes, three INTs, NFL-best 72.7% completion rate — on 7.7 yards a pop) ranks fourth in QBR. While Smith’s offseason market and NFL past would provide signs this may not last, the Seahawks are reaping the benefits of their extended Smith partnership — one the team is interested in exploring beyond 2022.
Seattle’s rookie class — featuring left tackle Charles Cross (obtained with Denver’s No. 9 overall pick), second-rounder Ken Walker and fifth-round project Tariq Woolen — is also delivering immediate returns, doing so after recent draft-weekend struggles set back some of the late Wilson-era teams. The 49ers routed the Seahawks in Week 2, and Seattle has yet to face Los Angeles. But Pete Carroll‘s team is also showing more on defense compared to another woeful start; Clint Hurtt‘s unit has minimized the Cardinals, Chargers and Giants during a three-game win streak.
Extending their Steve Keim–Kliff Kingsbury–Kyler Murray troika this offseason — with Murray’s deal coming after a bizarre film study-based controversy — the Cardinals rank 30th in scoring. They have seen DeAndre Hopkins make a difference upon returning from his six-game PED ban, and Vance Joseph‘s defense — despite a breakup with Chandler Jones after five years — has fared better since Patrick Mahomes torched that group in Week 1. But injuries and continued offensive inconsistency have hindered Arizona season.
Should the Cards (6.9% postseason odds) not be able to upend the Seahawks on Sunday, their road back to the playoffs will be difficult. A last-place finish would certainly invite big-picture questions about the team’s path, with its power trio all under contract through 2027.
Will the Seahawks hang on? Or will one of the 2021 playoff teams surpass them with a better second half? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in on the state of this division in the comments section.
Poll: Who Fared Best At Trade Deadline?
The NFL trade deadline has trended upward in recent years, and Tuesday resembled — to some degree, at least — the frenzy the NBA or MLB deadlines bring. In the days leading up to Tuesday’s record-setting deadline sequence — a 10-trade day — other teams improved their situations as well.
Although the Broncos received the only first-round pick exchanged during this year’s in-season trade cycle, the 49ers came away with the splashiest addition. San Francisco showed off its Christian McCaffrey move against their rivals and second-place CMC finishers Sunday, with the versatile back joining Walter Payton and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only backs to complete the rush-catch-throw touchdown triple.
On the other end of that deal, the Panthers collected four draft picks for McCaffrey and two from the Cardinals for Robbie Anderson. Carolina now has two additional Day 2 choices from the McCaffrey swap, though the retooling team is believed to have passed on a Rams offer of two first-round picks for edge rusher Brian Burns. Was that the right call? Because the Rams could not acquire McCaffrey or Burns, they ended up as odd bystanders during an action-packed deadline.
The Dolphins sent the 49ers a fifth-rounder for Jeff Wilson, reuniting him with ex-San Francisco OC Mike McDaniel, but Bradley Chubb was Miami’s deadline prize. Seven months after they sent a first-rounder and change to the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins became the first team since the 2019 Chiefs (Frank Clark) to send over a Round 1 pick for an edge defender. Chubb (5.5 sacks) will step in to take over as Miami’s pass-rushing anchor, while the Broncos obtained more than they did for Von Miller‘s one-time sidekick than they did for the future Hall of Famer. Denver, which collected first- and fourth-rounders and Chase Edmonds in this blockbuster, now has a 2023 first-round choice after previously being without first- or second-rounders next year due to the Russell Wilson trade.
The Bears vacillated between buyers and sellers over the past several days, unloading Ryan Pace-era defensive investments Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith but adding Chase Claypool. Chicago picked up second- and fifth-round picks from Baltimore for Smith but sent its own second to Pittsburgh for Claypool, beating out Green Bay’s offer of a Round 2 choice for the 238-pound wideout. The Bears, who still have a 2023 sixth-rounder left over from the Khalil Mack trade, will have three additional draft choices because of their activity this week.
Pittsburgh did well to obtain a second for Claypool, who turned out to carry considerable value on the market. Known aficionados of Day 2 wideouts, the Steelers can replenish their receiver cadre — or add in other areas — with two second-rounders next year.
Although the Browns nabbed Deion Jones in October for a low cost, the Ravens’ Smith addition headlined the AFC North’s moves. The Ravens had attempted to keep C.J. Mosley in 2019 and made Bobby Wagner a big offer this year. GM Eric DeCosta has his acclaimed linebacker now. Though, the Ravens could be faced with an interesting offseason predicament. They have now acquired a contract-year standout ahead of a franchise tag window in which Lamar Jackson will be expected to receive the tag.
Chicago’s Claypool addition was not the most interesting NFC North move. Due to the scarcity of intra-division trades, the Lions’ decision to send T.J. Hockenson‘s through-2023 contract to the Vikings may linger for a while. While most teams prefer to send key players out of the conference, or at least out of their division, Detroit — which partnered with Minnesota on April’s Jameson Williams trade-up — collected second- and third-round picks for Hockenson and multiple Day 3 choices. The Vikings will return to Detroit with Hockenson Dec. 11 and should be expected to discuss an extension with the Pro Bowl pass catcher, who will team with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on the 6-1 squad.
The Bills made two pre-deadline moves, acquiring Nyheim Hines and reuniting with safety Dean Marlowe, while the Falcons added a player (cornerback Rashad Fenton) and dealt away two (Marlowe, Calvin Ridley). Jacksonville’s move qualifies as one of the most unique in recent NFL history, with Ridley suspended for gambling but also now part of a trade that could send a second-rounder to Atlanta if the once-promising receiver re-signs with the Jaguars. Ridley, who totaled 1,374 receiving yards in 2020, could be an interesting piece in the Jags’ Christian Kirk-led receiving corps. But he will apply for reinstatement next year having not played since midway through the 2021 season.
How much will the Chiefs pickup of injury-prone but electric wideout Kadarius Toney move the needle? Will the Jets’ James Robinson get do enough to fill the Breece Hall void? What team improved its situation the most during this year’s leadup to the deadline? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
2022 NFL Trade Deadline Roundup
It was an especially busy day around the NFL, even for a trade deadline. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter (on Twitter), there was a deadline-record 10 trades made today, and per NFL Research (on Twitter), there was also a deadline-record 12 players who switched teams.
We’ve been keeping track of all of today’s moves, which we’ve compiled below:
T.J. Hockenson to Vikings
- Vikings receive: TE T.J. Hockenson, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
- 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
Chase Claypool to Bears
- Bears receive: WR Chase Claypool
- Steelers receive: 2023 second-round pick
William Jackson III to Steelers
- Steelers receive: CB William Jackson III, 2025 conditional seventh-round pick
- Commanders receive: 2025 conditional sixth-round pick
Bradley Chubb to Dolphins
- Dolphins receive: LB Bradley Chubb, 2025 fifth-round pick
- Broncos receive: RB Chase Edmonds, 2023 first-round pick, 2024 fourth-round pick
Calvin Ridley to Jaguars
- Jaguars receive: WR Calvin Ridley
- Falcons receive: 2023 conditional fifth-round pick, 2024 conditional second-round pick
Jeff Wilson Jr. to Dolphins
- Dolphins receive: RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
- 49ers receive: 2023 fifth-round pick
Jacob Martin to Broncos
- Broncos receive: DE Jacob Martin, 2024 fifth-round pick
- Jets receive: 2024 fourth-round pick
Nyheim Hines to Bills
- Bills receive: RB Nyheim Hines
- Colts receive: RB Zack Moss, 2023 conditional fifth-round pick
Rashad Fenton to Falcons
- Falcons receive: CB Rashad Fenton
- Chiefs receive: 2023 conditional seventh-round pick
Dean Marlowe to Bills
- Bills receive: S Dean Marlowe
- Falcons receive: 2023 seventh-round pick
2022 NFL Cap Space, By Team
Days away from this year’s trade deadline (3pm CT, Nov. 1), a few teams have made some in-season moves to bolster their rosters. Several squads have also restructured contracts this season to create additional space. That extra room will matter as most teams will consider adding or subtracting costs before Tuesday’s deadline.
Here is how teams’ cap-space numbers (courtesy of OverTheCap) look ahead of the deadline:
- Cleveland Browns: $33.72MM
- Las Vegas Raiders: $10.35MM
- Carolina Panthers: $9.79MM
- Atlanta Falcons: $9.71MM
- Philadelphia Eagles: $9.47MM
- Denver Broncos: $7.79MM
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $7.69MM
- Indianapolis Colts: $7.23MM
- Dallas Cowboys: $7.16MM
- Chicago Bears: $7.08MM
- Green Bay Packers: $6.6MM
- Miami Dolphins: $6.16MM
- New York Jets: $5.71MM
- Los Angeles Chargers: $4.97MM
- San Francisco 49ers: $4.95MM
- Los Angeles Rams: $4.93MM
- Arizona Cardinals: $4.76MM
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $4.3MM
- Washington Commanders: $4.26MM
- Kansas City Chiefs: $3.86MM
- Seattle Seahawks: $3.71MM
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $3.67MM
- New Orleans Saints: $3.61MM
- Cincinnati Bengals: $3.31MM
- New York Giants: $3.26MM
- Detroit Lions: $3.25MM
- Baltimore Ravens: $3.07MM
- New England Patriots: $2.19MM
- Houston Texans: $2.09MM
- Buffalo Bills: $1.93MM
- Tennessee Titans: $1.59MM
- Minnesota Vikings: $852K
The Browns have held the top spot for months, and the gulf between their cap-space figure and the field almost certainly stems from a desire to carry over cap space before Deshaun Watson‘s cap number spikes from $9.4MM to a runaway-record $54.99MM. Cleveland has recently been linked to creating more cap space. Interest has come in for Greedy Williams, who is in the final year of his rookie contract, and Kareem Hunt. Although the Browns did not grant Hunt’s summer trade request, it may now take only a fourth-round pick for Cleveland to deal its backup running back.
Another potential seller could move up on this list while creating some additional space in 2023. The Broncos are believed to have made Jerry Jeudy available. Unlike fellow trade chip Bradley Chubb, Jeudy is under contract for 2023 (on a $4.83MM cap number). Denver appears more likely to move Chubb. That departure would remove the franchise tag from the team’s equation in 2023 — barring a tag for fellow 2023 UFA-to-be Dre’Mont Jones — thus freeing up more free agency funds. It will be interesting if the Broncos, if they are to move Chubb, agree to eat much of his fifth-year option salary. George Paton‘s club took on most of Von Miller‘s 2021 money to increase draft compensation.
The Eagles are still near the top despite acquiring Robert Quinn. Philadelphia is paying just $684K of Quinn’s contract, which now runs through 2022 instead of 2024. Chicago is on the hook for $7.1MM. The Bears are on track to have a gargantuan lead on the field for 2023 cap space. They are projected to hold more than $125MM next year, according to OverTheCap.
New Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney checks in at just $784K on their 2022 cap sheet. The former Giants first-rounder’s figures bump to $1.9MM (2023) and $2.53MM (’24). Kansas City recently restructured Travis Kelce‘s deal, creating some wiggle room for the Toney addition. The Chiefs, who did not touch Patrick Mahomes‘ deal this year, restructured Kelce’s contract twice in 2022. Thursday’s trade hit the Giants with a $2.33MM dead-money charge. Toney will count $3.67MM in dead money for the Giants in 2023.
The Panthers picked up nearly $19MM in 2022 dead money via the Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey trades. Unlike the Eagles and Bears, last week’s Panthers-49ers McCaffrey swap did not involve Carolina taking on additional salary. McCaffrey’s offseason restructure dropped his 2022 base salary to the league minimum; the 49ers have him on their books at just $690K. McCaffrey’s record-setting extension will still represent $18.35MM in dead money on the Panthers’ 2023 cap, but his nonguaranteed base salaries from 2023-25 ($11.8MM, $11.8MM, $12MM) transferred fully from Carolina to San Francisco.
On the subject of 2022 dead money, the Bears lead the way with $80.32MM. The Falcons added to their total this month, however, by trading Deion Jones to the Browns. That deal saddled the Falcons with $11.38MM in additional dead money — accompanying the franchise’s record-setting Matt Ryan dead-money hit ($40.53MM) — and ballooned Atlanta’s overall total to $78.57MM. Ryan is off the Falcons’ books after this year, but Jones will carry a $12.14MM dead-money figure in 2023.
Poll: Which Sub-.500 Team Has Best Chance To Make Playoffs?
Particularly in the NFC, the early part of this season has brought considerable parity. Many would-be contenders have stumbled out of the blocks. Two 2-4 NFC squads — the Cardinals and Saints — will match up tonight in a game that will put the loser in an early-season bind.
A 2-4 start does not bring the historic uphill battle 0-3 does. Since the playoffs expanded to six teams per conference in 1990, four squads — including the 49ers last season and the 2019 Titans — have rebounded from that record to reach the conference championship round. The 1993 Oilers crafted a more remarkable pivot, rallying to earn a bye. No 2-4 team has ever reached a Super Bowl, however.
The Broncos are probably the most disappointing of the 2-4 lot. Their Russell Wilson–Nathaniel Hackett marriage has produced a spree of listless outings, leading to social media backlash and big-picture questions. Denver’s offense ranks 32nd in scoring and has particularly struggled coming out of halftime. The Broncos’ offense has accounted for three third-quarter points all season, turning up the heat on Hackett, who joined Kevin O’Connell and Dan Quinn as Broncos HC finalists.
This staggering unproductivity has marginalized a dominant defense, one that has seen 2021 draftees Patrick Surtain II and Baron Browning — after an offseason position change — take second-year leaps. Denver has the 18th-toughest schedule remaining, per Tankathon, though the team has both Chiefs contests still to come. As injuries mount for the once-promising team, its road to the playoffs appears difficult.
Cleveland and Pittsburgh join Denver at 2-4 but are just one game back of the AFC North lead. The Browns’ controversial Deshaun Watson acquisition led most to temper expectations for this season, with Watson banned 11 games. Cleveland also enjoyed a favorable early-season schedule, but the Jacoby Brissett-led team is 1-3 in games in which it has been favored. The Browns (10th-easiest remaining schedule, record-wise) brought back Jadeveon Clowney this offseason and have Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on top-market contracts. Both Garrett and Ward have missed time, and Joe Woods‘ defense ranks 30th. Although the Browns have hoarded cap space — likely because of Watson’s contract — their quarterback-in-waiting’s cap number spikes from $9.4MM to $54.9MM from 2022 to ’23, placing a bit more emphasis on this season’s result.
The Steelers (11th-easiest remaining schedule) upset the Buccaneers despite most of their secondary joining T.J. Watt in missing Week 6, but the team is making a transition at quarterback. The Steelers’ Mitch Trubisky acquisition, his Week 6 rally notwithstanding, did plenty to create the early-season hole. Kenny Pickett figures to make the bulk of the starts the rest of the way for a team that has not finished under .500 since 2003.
Initial Jaguars optimism has faded somewhat, after a three-game skid. Trevor Lawrence has climbed to 13th in QBR, from 28th as a rookie, and Travis Etienne‘s health is starting to pay dividends. The front-seven investments the Jags made this year have led to improved talent defensively; Mike Caldwell‘s unit ranks ninth in points allowed. Jacksonville (13th-toughest remaining schedule) also plays in a division featuring winning teams with major questions, though its perennial struggles against presumptive non-threat Houston indicates Doug Pederson‘s team may be at least a year away from contending.
Aside from the Broncos, the Raiders (minus-5 in point differential) are probably the most interesting team here. Las Vegas’ new regime paid up for Davante Adams and extended prior-regime investments Derek Carr, Darren Waller and Maxx Crosby. Those moves have thus far led to close losses. The Raiders (ninth-easiest remaining schedule) are 1-4, with their Patrick Graham-coordinated defense ranking 28th. The AFC West does not appear as menacing as initially projected, and 1-4 is not the death sentence 0-3 is historically. But this Raiders retooling effort will need multiple offseasons, the next one including (presumably) a first-round pick.
Rallies against the Falcons and Raiders, respectively, lifted the Saints and Cardinals to 2-4. Both teams are also just one game out in their parity-fueled divisions.
Arizona’s three-extension offseason (Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury, Steve Keim) has not instilled much confidence this will be the year the Murray-led operation becomes a serious threat. Arizona (15th-toughest remaining schedule) ranks 22nd both offensively and defensively, and its DeAndre Hopkins-less receiving corps led to numerous pass-catching combinations. The team has traded for both Marquise Brown and Robbie Anderson, but the Hopkins sidekicks will not share the field together for a while due to Brown’s injury. Kingsbury is already considering ceding play-calling duties.
The Saints (seventh-easiest remaining schedule) have again run into receiver staffing issues. Jarvis Landry has missed most of the season, and Michael Thomas‘ foot injury will lead to Thursday being the former All-Pro’s 29th missed game since 2020. Jameis Winston‘s back fractures have turned Andy Dalton into New Orleans’ regular starter. While the Dalton investment (one year, $3MM) has proven important, Dennis Allen‘s defense — a top-five unit in each of the past two seasons — ranks 29th.
Do any of the other sub-.500 teams — most of which residing in the rebuilding sect — have a chance to rebound this season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s collection of struggling teams in the comments section.
Trade Candidate: Robert Quinn
A report emerged Thursday indicating the Commanders, particularly in the event of a Thursday-night loss, would be prepared to shop some of their veterans. But the Bears lost, which should bring one of their veterans’ statuses to the forefront.
Robert Quinn is both tied to a long-term contract — a five-year, $70MM pact that runs through 2024 — and said upon reporting to training camp he did not seek to be traded. That said, Quinn has been traded twice in his career. He also was rumored to be wanting another scenery change this offseason, with that report preceding an unexcused minicamp absence. At 32, Quinn does not profile as a cornerstone player for the Bears’ Ryan Poles–Matt Eberflus era. Teams were monitoring the 12th-year pass rusher earlier this year; interest still stands to come the Bears’ way. Will Chicago act on it?
The Bears should be expected to entertain interest that stands to come their way for Quinn. Poles has not shied away in remaking the team. Eberflus’ defense looks quite different from Sean Desai‘s 2021 unit, which housed the likes of Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Danny Trevathan. The Bears cut the latter two, traded Mack and let Hicks sign with the Buccaneers. This is a younger defense. The first draftee obtained via the Mack trade — safety Jaquan Brisker — has played every defensive snap for the rebuilding team this season. Acquiring another pick or two for Quinn would make sense, now that the Bears have slunk to 2-4.
Less than three weeks remain until this year’s trade deadline (Nov. 1), and the Bears may have cost themselves a bit in terms of value by holding onto Quinn this offseason. After a two-sack 2020, Quinn stormed back with his most productive year since his 2013 All-Pro season. He broke Richard Dent‘s single-season franchise sack record, moving the number to 18.5 during a campaign that did not feature much Mack (due to injury). In 2022, however, Quinn has just one sack and two quarterback hits in six games.
Interested parties will nonetheless surface, when considering contending teams’ injury tolls and the edge position’s value. The Broncos collected second- and third-round picks for Von Miller at last year’s deadline. While the Bears are unlikely to extract such a haul for Quinn, ESPN.com’s Bill Barnwell offered a scenario in which the Rams (Quinn’s original team) reacquire him for two third-rounders. The Rams have not been shy about in-season edge rusher augmentation, acquiring Miller and Dante Fowler at the deadline during Sean McVay‘s tenure, and have had a need opposite Leonard Floyd since Miller spurned their free agency offer to join the Bills.
The Chargers also make sense for Quinn, who would reunite with Mack in this scenario. Unlike Mack, however, Quinn was not with the Bears during Brandon Staley‘s Windy City stay. Still, Joey Bosa is out for at least two months and is not expected to be 100% again this season. The Bolts made Mack part of an extensive defensive reload effort, attempting to maximize Justin Herbert‘s rookie contract, and Quinn would be an upgrade alongside Mack. The Titans are down Harold Landry for the season and have seen Bud Dupree run into more injury trouble. Injuries would help determine other potential fits as the deadline nears.
Denver’s Miller haul would represent a (likely unrealistic) goal for Chicago. Younger Quinn versions went for fourth- and sixth-round picks (in 2018) and a sixth-rounder (2019). Leonard Williams went for third- and fifth-rounders at the 2019 deadline, to a non-contending Giants team, while Yannick Ngakoue fetched the same haul (in the second of his three career trades) during the 2020 season. Quinn’s 2021 production would allow the Bears to ask for an Ngakoue-type package for Quinn, though his age may lower the price. Thirty-something edges Melvin Ingram and Everson Griffen landed their teams sixth-rounders, and Carlos Dunlap brought the Bengals a seventh and O-lineman B.J. Finney. Quinn’s value is higher than those players at this point. Something in between the Ngakoue 2020 price and the Ingram-Griffen-Dunlap tier would be reasonable.
The Broncos also collected the haul they did because they ate $9MM of the $9.7MM remaining on Miller’s contract. The Bears, who took on $24MM in Mack dead money, could increase their compensation by doing the same. That would seem in play, given how Chicago has operated under Poles thus far. Draft compensation will be more important than a few million in salary in a clear rebuilding year. More than $8MM remains on Quinn’s $12.8MM base salary this season. He is tied to $13.9MM and $12.9MM nonguaranteed bases in 2023 and ’24, giving an acquiring team flexibility.
Expect Quinn trade rumors to re-emerge soon. He has 102 career sacks and should be one of the top players available at this year’s deadline. What other teams would make sense for the talented sack artist?
Poll: Which Head Coach Will Be Fired First In 2022?
One month into the 2022 campaign, few NFL teams have truly surged out of the gate and distanced themselves from the rest of the field. There are some, on the other hand, which have invited speculation about potential coaching changes.
Calls for a firing have most loudly been made so far in Carolina. Matt Rhule entered this year, his third with the Panthers, with expectations to steer the franchise back into playoff contention. His ability to do so at both Temple and Baylor earned him a sizeable first NFL head coaching deal, but results have been lacking so far. 
[RELATED: Communication Issues Between Rhule, OC McAdoo?]
The acquisition of quarterback Baker Mayfield and a return to health from star running back Christian McCaffrey led to optimism that improvement on the offensive side of the ball in particular would be coming. Instead, the Panthers rank last in the league in yards, and 17th in points scored so far. A severe lack of wins when allowing more than 17 points has stretched into 2022; the fact that the 47-year-old continues to back Mayfield as the team’s No. 1 signal-caller will tie the pair together, though, regardless of their shared success or failure. Despite the significant term remaining on his first NFL deal, Rhule could make way for a more experienced option if an offensive resurgence doesn’t take shape.
The same may end up being true of Frank Reich in Indianapolis. The team’s annual replacement of their starting QB resulted in the arrival of Matt Ryan and the expectation of far more stability at the position compared to Carson Wentz. The former MVP has struggled mightily with respect to ball security, however, leading the league in both interceptions (seven) and fumbles (11). His 21 sacks taken have further hampered an offense averaging a league-worst 13.8 points per game.
Winless through the first half of their divisional contests, the Colts currently sit third in what is still considered an underwhelming AFC South. Plenty of time for a turnaround exists, of course, but there is added urgency around the team after 2021’s late-season collapse which cost them a playoff berth. Reich is tied to general manager Chris Ballard, as the pair were extended through 2026 just last year, potentially giving them a longer leash in the Ryan era, which they hope will last far longer than that of his predecessors. Early returns on the team’s investment in that trio have certainly been underwhelming, though.
In Arizona, Kliff Kingsbury entered 2022 with the expectation that the Cardinals’ inconsistencies would be corrected. After a hot start ended with a disappointing end to the campaign in 2021, Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim each received extensions and are now on the books through 2027. That move was eventually followed up by a massive second contract for QB Kyler Murray this summer, leaving the potential for he and Kingsbury to remain together for the foreseeable future.
However, Arizona has started 2-2 this season, ranking in the middle of the pack offensively. The absence of wideout DeAndre Hopkins, dating back to late last year, has hamstrung the team on that side of the ball to such a degree that Kingsbury’s scheme has increasingly come under fire. In spite of year-to-year improvement in the win-loss column over the course of his tenure on the sidelines, then, the 43-year-old is considered to be facing something of a make-or-break proposition in 2022. The return of Hopkins from suspension will no doubt give the offense a boost, but whether that translates to increased success – especially early in games – will be worth monitoring closely.
Another team facing unexpected struggles with the ball is the Broncos, led by rookie HC Nathaniel Hackett. The addition of QB Russell Wilson has not yielded anywhere near the production which was expected upon his arrival (and subsequent extension) heading into the season, with blame being shared between the two. Denver’s calamitous efforts in the red zone in particular have led to poor primetime showings and a 2-3 record.
Hackett has already responded by bringing veteran advisor Jerry Rosburg out of retirement, though Thursday night’s loss to the Colts did little to quell doubts about the team’s 2022 prospects. The growing list of injuries Denver is dealing with on both sides of the ball would have hampered their playoff chances regardless of if Hackett had taken the Broncos gig or any of the other four he interviewed for this winter. Still, the fact that he has risen up the list of contenders to be replaced so early in his tenure speaks to how problematic it has been so far.
Will one of these four coaches be the first to receive their walking papers, or will that fate befall a different bench boss? Cast your vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments below:
Community Tailgate: State Of The Broncos
Injuries are hitting the Broncos harder than most teams. Starters continue to be moved to IR, with Garett Bolles‘ leg fracture the latest significant issue to emerge. But this is standard in-season fare. Ditto close losses. The Broncos’ bigger-picture problems are not.
The team’s hire of Nathaniel Hackett and trade for Russell Wilson have not produced offensive success; the Broncos’ defense has been largely responsible for their two wins and the team being in position for two more. Hackett and Wilson’s performances keyed both the upset losses to the Seahawks and Colts. Considering what these two figures mean for the franchise’s future, the early returns warrant scrutiny.
Denver cycled through 11 starting quarterbacks between Peyton Manning‘s retirement and the Wilson trade. First-round picks (Paxton Lynch), second-round picks (Drew Lock), free agent signings (Case Keenum) and trades (Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater) did not produce worthwhile solutions, leading the franchise to pony up for Wilson. The Broncos’ eight-asset trade haul — headlined by 2022 and 2023 first-round picks — for Wilson doubled as one of the most expensive in NFL history, and the team committed to the perennial Pro Bowler via the five-year, $245MM ($124MM fully guaranteed) extension in August.
Through five games, the Broncos rank 31st in points per game and 28th in EPA per drive. While the team has mounted productive drives, it is consistently crashlanding in the red zone. This continued Thursday night, when the Broncos were 0-for-4 on touchdowns after reaching the red area. The only two instances of a team going 0-for-4 on TDs in the red zone this season, as ESPN.com’s Field Yates points out (on Twitter), came Thursday and in the Broncos’ bizarre Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Broncos have scored touchdowns at a ghastly 21.4% clip in the red zone. That is in last place by a wide margin; the 49ers rank 31st at 40%.
A star quarterback suddenly losing his form at 33 would be one of the more interesting on-field storylines to develop in recent memory, so it is worth speculating whether these rampant issues are Wilson-based or if they are more closely tied to the shift to a new offense. The nine-time Pro Bowler ranks 22nd in QBR, and the latter of Wilson’s two interceptions Thursday helped the Colts tie the game in the final minute. Wilson has rarely opted to use his legs this season; the likely Hall of Famer has 73 rushing yards through five games. That is in line with the new pace he set in 2021 (43 carries, 183 yards), when he missed three games. The Seahawks, who derived considerable value from Wilson’s rushing ability during his 10-year stay, believed Wilson’s run-game reluctancy would increase as he aged. Wilson sits fourth in QB history (behind Michael Vick, Cam Newton and Randall Cunningham) with 4,762 rushing yards.
Wilson’s accomplishments and success leading diminishing Seahawks rosters, at least compared to the franchise’s dominant mid-2010s squads, to the playoffs from 2018-20 point to Hackett being the bigger variable here. The 11th-year passer’s acclimation period to this offense — one that entered Thursday without starting running back Javonte Williams and has played without No. 3 wideout Tim Patrick all season — has been shaky at best. The Broncos’ final offensive play — a fourth-and-1 shotgun set in which Wilson missed an open K.J. Hamler, leading to extensive Hamler post-play frustration — effectively epitomizing the Hackett-Wilson partnership’s first month. Wilson is 2-for-18 on end zone passes this season, per ESPN Stats and Info.
This season has brought Hackett’s first play-calling role since he was fired from his Jaguars OC post during the 2018 season. The dual role of play-caller and game manager proved daunting for Hackett, whose 64-yard field goal attempt decision did well to foreshadow the Broncos’ eventful first month, and a game management assistant (the unretired Jerry Rosburg) is now in place. Situational struggles, as the brutal red zone numbers illustrate, have plagued Hackett since Rosburg’s arrival as well. The last of those produced a notable reaction from ex-Wilson teammate-turned-Amazon analyst Richard Sherman. Hackett rebuilt his career in Green Bay, having a hand in Aaron Rodgers‘ back-to-back MVP awards — and receiving steady endorsements from the future Hall of Famer — and interviewed for four HC jobs this offseason. But his Denver tenure is skidding off track early.
The Broncos rebounded from a 2-3 start in Manning’s first season, shifting quickly to some of Manning’s former Colts concepts to close out that 2012 campaign — a 13-3 season. But that team lost to three division champions, whereas none of this Broncos iteration’s blemishes have come against over-.500 competition. With the Broncos’ new ownership group not having signed off on Hackett, the prospect of a one-and-done HC tenure may be greater.
While these decisions are rare, five coaches (Urban Meyer, Freddie Kitchens, Steve Wilks, Chip Kelly and Jim Tomsula) have been fired during or after their first season. Meyer, Wilks, Kelly and Tomsula all lost 11-plus games; Kitchens’ firing came more as a result of dysfunction. Following Thursday’s result, BetOnline.ag moved Hackett to the top of its first-coach-fired prop odds. With the Broncos tied to Wilson through at least 2025 (due to guarantees), Hackett’s job security will shift to the forefront if his offense continues to produce at this level.
Can the Broncos re-emerge as a more stable operation after their mini-bye? Or have Hackett’s early-season missteps become too big of a concern? How much of the Denver offense’s issues are Wilson-driven compared to the system in which he now finds himself? What does this all mean for the franchise’s long-term outlook? Weigh in on the Broncos’ strange start in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate installment.
2022 NFL Cap Space, By Team
As we exit September, trade rumors will become a steady NFL topic. This year’s deadline falls on Nov. 1. That will return cap-space discussions to the forefront. Here is how every team stacks up financially going into October, via Over The Cap.
- Cleveland Browns: $35.94MM
- Philadelphia Eagles: $10.89MM
- Denver Broncos: $10.67MM
- Carolina Panthers: $10.47MM
- Las Vegas Raiders: $10.35MM
- Dallas Cowboys: $9.25MM
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $8.64MM
- Green Bay Packers: $8.57MM
- Indianapolis Colts: $7.97MM
- Atlanta Falcons: $7.92MM
- New York Jets: $6.97MM
- Chicago Bears: $6.84MM
- San Francisco 49ers: $6.75MM
- Miami Dolphins: $6.51MM
- Arizona Cardinals: $6.25MM
- Los Angeles Chargers: $5.83MM
- New York Giants: $5.49MM
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $5.41MM
- Los Angeles Rams: $5.38MM
- Baltimore Ravens: $4.51MM
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $3.87MM
- New England Patriots: $3.5MM
- Cincinnati Bengals: $3.16MM
- New Orleans Saints: $2.86MM
- Detroit Lions: $2.64MM
- Washington Commanders: $2.58MM
- Buffalo Bills: $2.44MM
- Tennessee Titans: $2.41MM
- Seattle Seahawks: $2.28MM
- Kansas City Chiefs: $2.12MM
- Houston Texans: $1.64MM
- Minnesota Vikings: $1.47MM
The Eagles’ number is certainly far closer to the Vikings’ last-place figure than what the Browns have stockpiled. Cleveland would stand to have room to augment its 2022 roster, via a patient free agent or a trade. That could depend on where Jacoby Brissett has the team stationed going into the Nov. 1 deadline. But the Browns also appear to be preparing for their Deshaun Watson future. Watson’s unprecedented contract spikes from a $9.4MM cap number (2022) to a record-shattering $54.99MM numbers from 2023-26. As that reality awaits, the Browns rolling over cap space to 2023 would be prudent.
With Sterling Shepard‘s ACL tear moving the veteran wide receiver to IR, the Giants will need to both cover that cost ($6.3MM) and add a contract to fill the roster spot. Every team will go through versions of that issue this season, as injuries pile up. The Giants are prepared to eat a significant chunk of Kenny Golladay‘s 2022 base salary ($13MM) to move him, eyeing an escape from his $4.5MM 2023 guarantee. No takers have emerged, though it will be interesting to see if a market for the former Pro Bowler forms once injuries affect more teams’ receiver situations.
Since their Jimmy Garoppolo restructure, the 49ers agreed to a two-year extension with Dre Greenlaw. The team is not expected to extend Nick Bosa until 2023, however. The Texans, Falcons, Bears and Eagles all sit north of $60MM in dead money, meaning more than a quarter of their respective cap space is tied to players no longer on the roster. Watson, Matt Ryan and Khalil Mack are responsible for massive dead-money hits on the Houston, Atlanta and Chicago payrolls. Philadelphia still has Alshon Jeffery, Malik Jackson and Brandon Brooks dead money on its cap sheet.