Houston Texans News & Rumors

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans Seeking $25MM Per Season?

MARCH 2: Evans’ agent informed Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz that the high-profile wideout has no desire to play with a rookie contract on his next deal. That comes as no surprise given his age, though a Bucs-Mayfield agreement being worked out would make that condition a moot one if he were to remain in Tampa Bay.

Several outside suitors will no doubt be interested in Evans, but Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 reports the Texans will not be among them. If Houston is to make a big-money offensive investment (comparatively speaking), the team is expected to focus more on the running back position than a top-end pass catcher.

MARCH 1, 7:43pm: Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that Evans now plans to hit free agency for the first time in his career. The ten-year veteran may still end up a life-long Buccaneer, but he fully intends to field offers from around the NFL. Despite ongoing discussions with Tampa Bay, Evans wants to keep his options open before deciding if he wants to return.

12:01pm: With Baker Mayfield in line for a multi-year contract and Antoine Winfield Jr. likely to receive the franchise tag, Mike Evans faces the distinct possibility of testing free agency later this month. The Buccaneers intend to keep all three members of that trio in the fold, but the latter could come with a hefty price tag.

Evans is aiming for a deal with an annual average value in the $25MM range, NFL Network’s Jeffri Chadhia reports. Securing a figure of that magnitude on a third contract would come as a surprise, as only four wideouts average $25MM or more on their current deals. Given his age (31 at the start of the 2024 season), Evans will likely be hard-pressed to command a new pact that close to the top of the market.

Still, his play remained at a Pro Bowl level in 2023, the first with Mayfield at quarterback. Evans posted 1,255 yards – his highest total since 2018 – and tied for the league lead with 13 touchdowns. Having topped the 1,000-yard mark in each of his 10 seasons, the second-team All-Pro will provide a high floor to the Buccaneers or a new team next season. A short-term pact in particular could prove to be a sound investment for Tampa Bay or an outside suitor.

At a minimum, Evans’ next deal can be expected to comfortably outpace the $16.5MM AAV of his previous one. That five-year accord provided major value to the Buccaneers, but the top of the market has surged in recent years. That trend could continue in 2024 with Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown among the young wideouts eligible for mega-deals. Each member of that trio would be expected to command a more lucrative pact than Evans, but the latter could still generate a notable market for himself.

The Texas A&M alum went up until the start of last season during contract talks with the Buccaneers, but no agreement was reached. Reports from last month stated the sides are not close after the latest round of negotiations, meaning Evans could at least test the market once the new league year begins. Further clarity on Mayfield and Winfield (and, as such, Tampa Bay’s cap situation) will likely be in place by that point. It will be interesting to see where Evans’ asking price checks in during talks with the Buccaneers or other interested parties over the coming days and weeks.

Texans Saquon Barkley’s Preferred Destination?

The Texans are among the teams to watch on the running back front, and a they will have no shortage of options to choose from in free agency. Several accomplished producers at the position are on track to be available, and Houston could be well-positioned for a splashy addition.

After ranking 22nd in the league in rushing (97 yards per game), improvement in that area is an obvious need. The Texans are flush with cap space, so they could benefit from the crop of available rushers set to reach the open market. Houston has been linked to a RB pursuit in general, but one notable name has emerged which would certainly represent a buzz-worthy move.

Saquon Barkley has “targeted the Texans as his top potential destination,” KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson reports. Barkley has also been in communication with reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud, Wilson adds. The Giants made the unsurprising move of franchise-tagging Barkley last offseason, and doing so again is still on the table. Talks on a New York extension are ongoing as well, meaning the former No. 2 pick might not reach free agency.

In the event he did, however, Houston would represent an attractive destination. Stroud’s rookie campaign helped guide the team to the divisional round of the playoffs, and he is surrounded by a relatively young skill-position corps which would allow for a big-money investment on the market. With three 1,000-yard seasons to his name, Barkley would provide a dynamic element to the Texans’ ground game.

Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post confirms the expectation around the league is that general manager Nick Caserio will be a central player in the RB market this offseason. Caserio has a background with the Patriots, a team which has traditionally avoided making sizable investments in veteran backs. A shift in philosophy would thus come as a surprise, although an upgrade at the position would likely go a long way in ensuring the team can repeat its success on offense from 2023.

“What do I think is going to happen?” Caserio said (via Wilson) when speaking about a potential running back addition. “We’re all going to find out. Free agency, it’s what does the market tell you? And then any player, what are you willing to pay that player commensurate with their role?”

Barkley would be far from the only high-profile back the Texans could show interest in. Fellow 2023 franchise tag recipients Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard on set to reach free agency; the same is also true of Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler. Among the pending free agents at the position is Devin Singletary, who joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year, $2.75MM deal.

Wilson reports there is a mutual interest between team and player for a new Singletary pact to be worked out. Such a development (coupled with the continued presence of 2022 fourth-rounder Dameon Pierce) would likely lessen the chances of a Barkley pursuit. Still, it is notable the latter has his eyes on a Houston arrangement while his Giants future remains in flux.

LB Azeez Al-Shaair Interested In Joining Texans; Latest On Jonathan Greenard

Two ex-49ers decision-makers moved to the AFC South last year, creating opportunities for unattached San Francisco cogs. Azeez Al-Shaair took one of them, landing with Ran Carthon‘s Titans on a one-year deal. After excelling in 2023, the former 49ers linebacker looks to have a chance at another reunion in the division.

Following a 163-tackle season, Al-Shaair is back on track for free agency. The former Fred WarnerDre Greenlaw sidekick is believed to be interested in rejoining DeMeco Ryans in Houston, according to KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson.

Al-Shaair’s tackle total doubled as the most in a season in Titans history (1999-present). After seeking to be an every-down player, Al-Shaair should see his Tennessee stint generate a better market than he saw in 2023. The Titans nabbed Al-Shaair for just $5MM. With the 49ers extending Greenlaw in 2022, Al-Shaair’s path out of San Francisco seemed clear. But Ryans both coached him during both his seasons as the 49ers’ DC and as San Francisco’s inside linebackers coach in the two years prior.

The Texans used Christian Harris and Blake Cashman as their regular linebackers last season. Whereas Harris was a former third-round pick, Cashman had primarily worked as a special-teamer leading up to last season. The former Jets fifth-rounder enjoyed a productive year under Ryans, totaling 106 tackles, two sacks and an interception. Cashman is expected to generate some interest as a free agent, Wilson adds. Al-Shaair promises to cost more than Cashman in free agency, and the former 49ers UDFA has far more experience under Ryans.

Cash has done a lot of great things for us,” Texans GM Nick Caserio said. “We’ll work through the process. If we have the opportunity to bring him back, I think he’ll have a good role on the team.

With C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson tied to rookie contracts through at least 2025, the Texans have opportunities to bolster their roster. Caserio only has notable payments on the offensive and defensive lines at present, opening the door for payments elsewhere this offseason. Houston holds more than $67MM in cap space, which sits sixth in the NFL as of Thursday.

Jonathan Greenard stands as the Texans’ top free agent, and while both parties are interested in a second contract, the young edge rusher’s expected price tag may impede that. Greenard could draw offers in the $22MM-per-year neighborhood. Teams across the league are monitoring this situation, Wilson adds, noting Greenard’s price — which may well have risen now that the cap has settled at $255.4MM — may override a Texans desire to re-sign him.

Greenard led the team in sacks last season, notching a career-high 12.5. Greenard joins Danielle Hunter and Bryce Huff as top edge players set to be available. The Texans have until 11am CT on March 11, when the legal tampering period begins, to keep him off the market.

Houston also wants to retain kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn, Wilson adds. That contract will not be a particularly expensive one to finalize. The Texans burned through all their IR activations before the regular season ended, using a number of them early. Saving one for Fairbairn, who came off the injured list in December, illustrated the team’s view of its veteran kicker.

The Texans’ kicker since 2017, Fairbairn played out a four-year, $17.65MM deal last season. He made a career-best 96.4% of his field goal tries (27 of 28). Fairbairn’s deal voids on March 13, tagging the Texans with $1.96MM in dead money if they do not re-sign him by then.

Texans, DE Jonathan Greenard Exploring Deal

Although Danielle Hunter might be the top edge rusher headed to free agency, this year’s batch of UFA-to-be defensive ends features some younger options with upside. Though, this crop carries some uncertainty as well.

With the cap spiking to $255.4MM, however, two of the second-contract-seeking DEs — Jonathan Greenard and Bryce Huff — are probably in great shape. That will put their current teams to the test. Regarding Greenard, the Texans may need to prepare an offer worth more than $20MM per year to retain him.

Greenard’s price tag is set to climb past $17MM per year, per KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson, who adds it might take more than $22MM per annum to sign the former third-round pick. Mutual interest exists between the parties, and Wilson indicates the sides are now motivated to hammer out a deal. They are exploring if a new agreement is possible. Considering the Texans’ $67.3MM in cap space (as of Wednesday morning), it is. Of course, it will be on the team to determine if Greenard is worth this price.

Will Anderson won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, but Greenard led the team in sacks by a wide margin. Greenard notched 12.5 sacks and 22 QB hits last season. Greenard’s 32 pressures tied for 20th in the NFL. The former Louisville and Florida pass rusher, who is going into his age-27 season, also tallied eight sacks for a lower-profile Texans team in 2021.

JG did a good job for us,” DeMeco Ryans said. “He was very productive; his play was physical. He did the things we asked him to do. We’ll see where free agency plays out, but we love JG. We loved what he did for us this year.”

It would seem a franchise tag could be in play, though the cap spike leaves that number at $21.3MM. Wilson does not mention the possibility the tag will be used to keep Greenard off the market, but the Texans do have cap space and a uniquely structured payroll presently. Beyond the offensive line and a midlevel Maliek Collins deal, the Texans do not really have much allocated to the other positions on their roster. This opens the door to some interesting possibilities for a team that will build around the rookie contracts of Anderson and C.J. Stroud.

After two lean years and a surprising playoff season, the Texans will enter a new phase of Nick Caserio‘s rebuild. This will mark the first offseason bringing expectations; it will be interesting to see if the team is ready to spend to load up the roster around Stroud. The Greenard decision will be a key component in this upcoming chapter.

Nico Collins Open To Texans Extension; Latest On Team’s WR Plans

A major element of the Texans’ surprise run to the divisional round was an uptick in passing efficiency with C.J. Stroud at quarterback. The play of the Offensive Rookie of the Year helped wideout Nico Collins enjoy a career year, and it could help him land a lucrative extension.

Having played three seasons in the NFL, the latter is now eligible for a second contract. Collins’ value saw a major spike over the course of the 2023 slate given his production compared to his first two seasons. The former third-rounder averaged 35 receptions and 464 yards per campaign in 2021-22, but Stroud’s arrival sparked a major step forward. Collins posted a statline of 80-1,297-8 in 2023, operating as Stroud’s top target.

To little surprise, the 24-year-old is open to parlaying his production into an extension. Collins recently confirmed his willingness to open negotiations when speaking to Aaron Wilson of KPRC2. Wilson notes, however, that it is currently unclear if the Texans and Collins’ agents have discussed a deal. Nevertheless, he adds that there is “definitely mutual interest” in an agreement keeping the Michigan alum in the fold beyond 2024.

Collins and 2023 third-rounder Tank Dell profile as giving Houston a productive 1-2 punch at the receiver position. For that reason, Wilson writes that the Texans are likely to be interested only in second- or third-tier WR options on the free agent market. The team is set to have considerable spending power in March, but other positions will represent more pressing roster needs. Collins could further boost his value with a strong follow-up campaign in 2024, something which will of course be easier if he remains the team’s leader in targets.

A new contract for tight end Dalton Schultz is also on the team’s radar, Wilson notes. The ex-Cowboy is interested in a re-up, and agreeing to one could provide Houston with three familiar pass-catching options for at least one more season. Changes on offense (including at the running back spot) could be taking place in the near future, but a major addition amongst available receivers would come as a surprise. Collins is therefore on track to showcase himself for the Texans or outside suitors next season in the event an extension does not come to fruition in the coming months.

2024 NFL Cap Space, By Team

The NFL provided clarity to its teams on Friday by setting the salary cap ceiling ($255.4MM). Franchise tag figures have been locked in as well, and clubs can now proceed with their offseason planning knowing exactly where they stand with respect to financial flexibility. Courtesy of Over the Cap, here is the current landscape in terms of salary cap space:

  1. Washington Commanders: $79.61MM
  2. Tennessee Titans: $78.66MM
  3. Chicago Bears: $78.34MM
  4. New England Patriots: $77.96MM
  5. Indianapolis Colts: $72.34MM
  6. Houston Texans: $67.58MM
  7. Detroit Lions: $57.61MM
  8. Arizona Cardinals: $51.1MM
  9. Cincinnati Bengals: $50.67MM
  10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $43.68MM
  11. Los Angles Rams: $43.11MM
  12. Las Vegas Raiders: $42.94MM
  13. Minnesota Vikings: $35.81MM
  14. Carolina Panthers: $34.57MM
  15. Atlanta Falcons: $33MM
  16. New York Giants: $30.8MM
  17. Philadelphia Eagles: $27.35MM
  18. Jacksonville Jaguars: $24.68MM
  19. Kansas City Chiefs: $18.19MM
  20. Baltimore Ravens: $16.63MM
  21. Seattle Seahawks: $12.97MM
  22. New York Jets: $12.76MM
  23. Pittsburgh Steelers: $9MM
  24. Green Bay Packers: $2.3MM
  25. San Francisco 49ers: $5.07MM over the cap
  26. Cleveland Browns: $7.76MM over
  27. Dallas Cowboys: $9.86MM over
  28. Denver Broncos: $16.81MM over
  29. Los Angeles Chargers: $25.61MM over
  30. Miami Dolphins: $27.92MM over
  31. New Orleans Saints: $42.11MM over
  32. Buffalo Bills: $43.82MM over

All teams must be cap compliant by the start of the new league year, but it will of course be more than just those currently over the limit which will make cost-shedding moves in the near future. Cuts, restructures and extensions are available as tools to carve out space in advance of free agency. Several have already taken place around the league.

That includes the Dolphins’ release of defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah and the planned cut of Xavien Howard. The latter cannot be designated a post-June 1 release until free agency begins but once it happens, Miami will move much closer to cap compliance. The Saints have moved considerable commitments into the future via restructures (as usual), but more transactions on that front will be required even with the cap seeing an historic single-season jump.

The roughly $30MM spike from 2023 will provide unforeseen spending power for teams already set to lead the pack in cap space while also making the task of those at the bottom of the list easier. Spending more on backloaded contracts this offseason at the expense of future space obviously carries risk, however. Still, the news of a higher-than-expected ceiling will add further intrigue to each team’s financial planning.

With Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson each set to carry record-breaking cap hits for 2024, the Cowboys and Browns will be among the teams most in need of working out a deal to lower those figures. In Dallas’ case in particular, an extension would provide immediate breathing room in addition to clarity on his future beyond the coming season. For Cleveland, Watson’s fully-guaranteed deal has already been restructured once and will need to be again to avoid consecutive years of a $64MM cap charge over its remaining term.

If the Commanders and Patriots add a quarterback with the second and third picks in this year’s draft, each team currently in the top six in space will enjoy the benefits of having a signal-caller on their rookie contracts. That would allow for an aggressive approach to free agency, although the Chiefs’ success after Patrick Mahomes signed (and re-worked) his monster extension has proven it is possible to win Super Bowl titles with a substantial QB investment on the books.

Texans Eyeing Free Agent Running Backs?

After Dameon Pierce struggled during his sophomore campaign, the Texans could be in the market for a new starting running back. According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, there’s buzz around the NFL that the Texans could try to improve at the position as they look to take some of the load off quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Pierce appeared to be the team’s RB of the future following his standout rookie campaign. The 2022 fourth-round pick finished his first season in the NFL with 1,104 yards from scrimmage, the third-most among rookie RBs (behind Kenneth Walker and Tyler Allgeier).

However, Pierce couldn’t replicate that production in 2023. He didn’t top four yards-per-rush in any of his first seven starts, and following a three-game inactive streak, he was firmly behind Devin Singletary on the depth chart.

Over those final seven games, Pierce only garnered 36 carries, and he was limited to only six offensive snaps in the postseason. In total, Pierce finished this past season with 517 yards from scrimmage on 158 touches, good for an average of 3.3 yards per touch. Pro Football Focus ultimately graded him 47th among 59 qualifying RBs.

Singletary topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage for a third-straight season, but the veteran is set to hit free agency. While there’s a chance he could look to extend his stay in Houston beyond one season, there’s no guarantee he’ll be back. Dare Ogunbowale is also an impending free agent, so the Texans will need to add some depth at the position.

While the organization could look to reset the position at the draft, it sounds like they’re considering using a chunk of their $60MM-plus in cap space at the RB position. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler lead the list of free agent RBs heading into the offseason.

Minor NFL Transactions: 2/21/24

Today’s minor moves:

Houston Texans

Minnesota Vikings

The Texans made sure to retain Ross, a special-teams gunner, and Eiselen, a special-teams blocker. In fact, Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 in Houston passes along that Eiselen received a two-year deal from the Texans worth $2.095MM (including a $10K signing bonus).

2024 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

A valuable tool for teams to keep top free agents off the market, the franchise tag has been in existence since 1993. This week brought the opening of the 2024 tag window. Clubs have until 3pm CT on March 5 to apply tags. As the Giants’ situation showed last year, most of the tag-related business comes near the close of this window. Teams will continue to work toward re-signing their respective tag candidates, thus preventing a lofty franchise tender from hitting their cap sheet.

The legal tampering period opens March 11, with the new league year (and official free agency) starting March 13. Once a player is tagged, he has until July 15 to sign an extension with his respective team. Absent an extension agreement by that date, the player must play the 2023 season on the tag (or go the Le’Veon Bell/Dan Williams/Sean Gilbert route, passing on guaranteed money and skipping the season).

High-profile free agents remain weeks away from hitting the market. As PFR’s tag recipients list shows, a handful of players are prevented from taking their services to free agency each year. This year looks to present a few more tag candidates compared to 2023. With a handful of teams determining if they will need to use the tag to prevent a free agency path, here are the players who figure to be tagged or at least generate conversations about being franchised ahead of the March 5 deadline:

Locks

Josh Allen, OLB (Jaguars)
Tag cost: $24MM

GM Trent Baalke did not leave much suspense when he addressed Allen’s future last month. The veteran exec said the 2019 first-round pick will be a Jaguar in 2024, indicating the team would use its franchise tag if necessary. The Jaguars do have Calvin Ridley as a free agent, but the team would owe the Falcons a 2024 second-round pick if it extended the wide receiver’s contract before the start of the league year. The second pick sent to Atlanta will only be a third-rounder if Jacksonville lets Ridley hit free agency. It makes more sense for Jacksonville to circle back to Ridley after allowing him to test the market. An Allen tag effectively ensures that will happen.

Timing his sack breakthrough well, Allen registered a Jags-record 17.5 during his contract year. The five-year Jaguar has combined for 55 QB hits over the past two seasons and ranks top 10 in pressures over the past three. The tag regularly keeps top edge rushers from hitting free agency, and the 26-year-old pass rusher — while obviously wanting to be paid what he’s worth — expressed a desire to stay in Jacksonville long term.

The Jags have regularly unholstered their tag during the 2020s, cuffing Yannick Ngakoue in 2020 and then keeping Cam Robinson off the 2021 and ’22 markets. The team kept Evan Engram out of free agency last year. Robinson signed an extension in 2022, and the Jags re-upped Engram last July. The Ngakoue situation could be notable, as the edge rusher became disgruntled with the Jags and was eventually traded to the Vikings that summer. No signs of that level of trouble are brewing with Allen yet.

Jaylon Johnson, CB (Bears)
Tag cost: $19.8MM

Johnson is likely to become the first franchise-tagged cornerback since the Rams kept Trumaine Johnson off the 2017 market. The Bears are the most recent team to tag a corner, using the transition tag to cuff Kyle Fuller in 2018. They will almost definitely follow suit with Johnson, who has been rumored to be tagged for several weeks. A Ryan Pace-era draftee, Johnson expressed his desire to stay with the Bears ahead of his contract year. With that platform campaign producing some twists and turns, that price has gone up significantly.

After unsuccessful in-season extension talks, the Bears gave Johnson an 11th-hour opportunity to gauge his trade value. The Bears did not alert teams Johnson, 24, was available until the night before the Oct. 31 deadline. Although the Bills and 49ers engaged in talks about a trade, the Bears held out for a first- or second-round pick. Nothing materialized, which will likely come up during the team’s talks with Johnson. The Bears then extended trade pickup Montez Sweat, leaving Johnson in limbo. But the former second-round pick stuck the landing on an impact season. He is firmly in the Bears’ plans, and the team holds more than $66MM in cap space — plenty to squeeze in a tag onto the payroll.

Pro Football Focus’ top-graded corner in 2023, Johnson displayed a new gear that has made him worthy of a tag. Finishing with four interceptions and allowing just a 50.9 passer rating as the closest defender, the Utah alum soared to second-team All-Pro status. The Bears, who last used the tag on Allen Robinson in 2021, made no secret of their interest in retaining Johnson and will have a few more months to negotiate with him as a result of the tag.

Likely tag recipients

Brian Burns, OLB (Panthers)
Projected tag cost: $24MM

The Panthers hiring a new GM and head coach classifies this as just short of a lock, but familiar faces remain. Carolina promoted assistant general manager Dan Morgan to GM and blocked DC Ejiro Evero from departing. Burns has been viewed as a likely tag recipient since last season, after negotiations broke down. The Panthers have not offered a negotiating masterclass here, as Burns has been extension-eligible since the 2022 offseason. Since-fired GM Scott Fitterer had viewed Burns as a re-up candidate for two offseasons, but multiple rounds of trade talks boosted the 2019 first-rounder’s leverage.

In what looks like a mistake, the Panthers passed on a Rams offer that included two first-rounders and a third for Burns at the 2022 trade deadline. Carolina then kept Burns out of 2023 trade talks with Chicago about the No. 1 pick, ultimately sending D.J. Moore to the Windy City for the Bryce Young draft slot. Carolina also kept Burns at the 2023 deadline, as teams looked into the top pass rusher on the NFL’s worst team. Burns also saw his position’s market change via Nick Bosa‘s record-setting extension ($34MM per year). The 49ers’ landmark accord came to pass after Burns had set a $30MM-AAV price point, complicating Morgan’s upcoming assignment.

Burns, 25, has registered at least 7.5 sacks in each of his five seasons. While he has only topped nine in a season once (2022), the two-time Pro Bowler is one of the league’s better edge rushers. Given the Panthers’ history with Burns, it would be borderline shocking to see the team allow the Florida State alum to leave in exchange for merely a third-round compensatory pick.

Burns has said he wants to stay with the Panthers; he is unlikely to have a choice this year. The Panthers last used the tag to keep right tackle Taylor Moton off the market in 2021; the sides agreed to an extension that offseason.

Tee Higgins, WR (Bengals)
Tag cost: $21.82MM

Seeing their hopes of capitalizing on the final year of Higgins’ rookie contract dashed due to Joe Burrow‘s season-ending injury, the Bengals look to be giving strong consideration to keeping the Burrow-Higgins-Ja’Marr Chase trio together for one last ride of sorts. The Bengals hold $59.4MM in cap space — fifth-most currently — and structured Burrow’s extension in a way that makes a Higgins tag palatable. Burrow’s deal does not spike into historic cap territory until 2025.

While a future in which Chase and Higgins are signed long term is more difficult to foresee, the Bengals still carry one of the AFC’s best rosters. It is likely Burrow’s top two weapons remain in the fold for at least one more year. Higgins, 25, did not come close to posting a third straight 1,000-yard season. Burrow’s injury had plenty to do with that, though the former second-round pick started slowly. A Bengals 2023 extension offer underwhelmed Higgins, but the Bengals kept him out of trades. A tag will give Cincinnati the option to rent him for 2024. A tag-and-trade transaction is viewed as unlikely, as the Bengals load up again.

How the organization proceeds beyond 2024 will be a key storyline, but the Bengals — who kept Jessie Bates in similar fashion in 2022 — are positioned well to run back perhaps the NFL’s best receiving tandem. While director of player personnel Duke Tobin stopped short of guaranteeing Higgins will be a Bengal in 2024, signs point to it.

Justin Madubuike, DL (Ravens)
Tag cost: $22.1MM

Seeing their defensive coordinator depart and once again facing questions at outside linebacker, the Ravens have the option of keeping their top 2023 pass rusher off the market. They are probably going to take that route. Madubuike raised his price considerably during an impact contract year, leading the Ravens with 13 sacks. While Mike Macdonald was able to coax surprising seasons from late additions Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy, Madubuike drove Baltimore’s defensive engine and will likely be guaranteed a high salary by signing his franchise tender.

Perennially interested in hoarding compensatory picks, the Ravens have regularly let breakthrough pass rushers walk in free agency. This dates back to the likes of Paul Kruger and Pernell McPhee and subsequently included Za’Darius Smith and Matt Judon. The Ravens have only been able to replace Judon with stopgap options — from Clowney to Van Noy to Justin Houston — and again must figure out a solution alongside Odafe Oweh on the edge. Madubuike, 26, proved too good to let walk; the former third-round pick will once again be expected to anchor Baltimore’s pass rush in 2024.

Antoine Winfield Jr., S (Buccaneers)
Tag cost: $17.12MM

We mentioned Winfield as the Bucs’ most likely tag recipient around the midseason point, and signs now point to that reality coming to pass. The Bucs want to re-sign Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. The bounce-back quarterback’s tender price would check in at nearly $36MM, and because Evans was attached to a veteran contract, his tag number would come in well north of Higgins’ — at beyond $28MM. As such, the Bucs cuffing Winfield has always made the most sense, and after the second-generation NFL DB’s dominant contract year, it would be stunning to see the team let him walk.

The Bucs have let their recent top free agents test free agency, only to re-sign Shaquil Barrett (2021), Carlton Davis (2022) and Jamel Dean (2023). Winfield may be on a higher plane, having secured first-team All-Pro acclaim last season. Davis and Dean have never made a Pro Bowl; Winfield’s productive and well-regarded 2023 stands to separate him. Winfield, 25, tallied six sacks and three interceptions while forcing an NFL-leading six fumbles. This included a pivotal strip of DJ Chark in the Bucs’ Week 18 win over the Panthers, which clinched them the NFC South title.

Winfield will undoubtedly be eyeing a top-market safety extension. Derwin James established the current standard, $19MM per year, just before the 2022 season. Last year’s safety market did not feature big-ticket prices, for the most part, but the Falcons made Jessie Bates (four years, $64MM) an exception. If Winfield were to reach free agency, he would be expected to eclipse that.

The Bucs, who have used the tag three times in the 2020s, should not be considered likely to let Winfield follow Davis and Dean’s path by speaking with other teams. Tampa Bay has used the tag three times in the 2020s, cuffing Barrett in 2020 and tagging Chris Godwin twice. The team eventually re-signed both, and while the statuses of Mayfield and Evans (and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs) create a crowded contract queue, the Bucs will certainly be interested in re-upping Winfield.

On tag radar

Saquon Barkley, RB (Giants)
Tag cost: $12MM

Barkley has said he wants to finish his career with the Giants, and the team will meet with the Pro Bowl running back’s camp at the Combine. But a recent report indicated the team is highly unlikely to tag the six-year veteran a second time. The Giants should not be ruled out from reversing course and keeping Barkley, given his importance to an otherwise low-octane offense, but it appears they are prepared to move on if the talented RB does not accept their extension offer this time around. A host of talented backs await in free agency, though Barkley would likely be the top prize were he to reach the market.

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OL James Ferentz Retires

James Ferentz saw action in one game with the Patriots during the 2023 campaigns. Rather than attempting to continue his playing career, he will turn his attention to his post-playing days. The veteran offensive lineman announced his retirement on Monday.

Ferentz joined the league as a Texans UDFA in 2014. He did not make his debut until one year later after joining the Broncos, and he made 14 appearances that season. He was an auxiliary member of Denver’s O-line as the team won the Super Bowl, marking an eventful start to Ferentz’s playing days at the NFL level.

The Iowa alum remained in the Mile High City for another campaign, though he again did not see any starts. That changed after he joined the Patriots, as he started a pair of games in 2019. Ferentz logged between 134 and 269 offensive snaps each season from 2019-22, seeing time at center as well as both guard positions.

The 34-year-old served as a de facto coach this past campaign (the final one of his contract) as a veteran member of New England’s offensive front. He has family ties to the coaching ranks since his father Kirk has been Iowa’s head coach since 1999. His brother Brian, meanwhile, has served on the Hawkeyes’ staff for over a decade after a stint on the Patriots’ sidelines. It will be interesting to see if James follows in their footsteps in his post-playing days.

“To the Houston Texans, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots organizations, thank you for the combined ten years of my career,” Ferentz’s announcement reads in part. “Thank you Bill O’Brien, Gary Kubiak and Bill Belichick for giving me the opportunity to play pro football when no one else would… A special thank you to the towns of Foxboro and Norfolk, Massachusetts, where my family has luckily called home for the past seven years.”

Ferentz did not play in the regular season in 2019, but he did dress for one game in the Patriots’ Super Bowl run that year. He will thus exit the game as a two-time champion and a veteran of 63 total games between regular and postseason play. He amassed $5.76MM in career earnings.