Offseason In Review: San Diego Chargers

The Chargers bottomed out in 2015, posting their worst record since 2003 and securing their first top-five draft pick since the club selected Philip Rivers. But with that top draft choice, and a lot of money coming off the books, San Diego had a chance to remake its roster this offseason while also attempting to deal with relocation concerns.

Notable signings:

The Chargers’ offensive line in 2015 was, in a word, messy. Injuries sapped any potential the unit might have exhibited prior to the season, leaving tackle Joe Barksdale as the only starter who appeared in all 16 games. King Dunlap, Orlando Franklin, Chris Watt, and D.J. Fluker — a group that earned more than $21MM in cash in 2015 — missed a combined 30 games, leaving subpar options such Trevor Robinson, Kenny Wiggins, and Chris Hairston to fill in. In fact, nine San Diego offensive linemen played more than 100 snaps, and the club fielded 24 different line combinations, fourth-most in the NFL (latter stat courtesy of Eric D. Williams of ESPN.com).

And while the Chargers’ front office is banking on improved health to ameliorate an offensive line that ranked 31st in adjusted line yards, the club didn’t simply rest of its laurels. San Diego’s first move was to re-sign Barksdale, locking up its right tackle Joe Barksdalethrough the 2019 season. Barksdale, 28, is a fine player — he ranked as the No. 21 tackle in the league last year, according to Pro Football Focus, and graded among the top-50 at his position in 2014.

But Barksdale sat on the 2015 open market until the end of May before agreeing to a one-year, minimum salary pact with the Chargers. His new contract, on the other hand, makes Barksdale the eighth-highest paid right tackle in terms of annual value, and his $10.5MM in guarantees is fourth-largest among non-rookie contracts at his position. Perhaps San Diego feels some sort of debt towards Barksdale after he was the only part of its offensive line that didn’t end up in tatters last season. But the Chargers re-signed Barksdale before he reached free agency this spring, meaning the club didn’t let him test his market. Handing a right tackle who struggled to find a job a year prior a contract of this magnitude seems like a misstep and an overpay.

San Diego also re-signed swing tackle Hairston to a two-year deal (and are surely hoping he isn’t required to play as much as he did last year), and then inked veteran Matt Slauson after he was released by the Bears. The 30-year-old Slauson spent his entire career at guard until injuries in Chicago forced him to move to the pivot in 2015. He was effective at both spots, and his release came as a surprise, but the Chargers now have a solid veteran in the middle of their offensive line at an affordable price. San Diego drafted center Max Tuerk in third round of this year’s draft, but Slauson is fully expected to start in the middle.

Aside from the offensive line, the other area targeted by the Chargers during the free agent period was the secondary, which makes sense given that the club ranked 19th in opposing passer rating, 18th in passing yards allowed, and 21st in passing defense DVOA. While Jason Verrett remains one of the best corners in the NFL, veteran Brandon Flowers struggled with conditioning and admittedly grew complacent after landing a large deal last spring. Flowers was moved inside last season, but he’ll move back out after San Diego agreed to terms with slot cornerback Casey Hayward.

Hayward is proof that either NFL teams are especially wary of injury history, or that clubs still aren’t paying for slot corners despite the propagation of three wide receiver sets. While secondary options such as Josh Norman, Janoris Jenkins, and Sean Smith all signed for at least $9.5MM annually, Hayward will average only $5.1MM per season with the Chargers despiteCasey Hayward grading out as the 16th-best corner in the league per PFF.

Admittedly, Hayward’s health concerns may have lowered his price tag, as a hamstring injury wiped out most of his 2013 campaign. But he’s been on the field for every game during the past two seasons, and even began to play on the outside in 2015. It’s conceivable that Hayward will start opposite Verrett in San Diego’s base package before moving inside in the nickel, but either way, the Chargers scored a free agent steal with the 26-year-old.

Elsewhere in the defensive backfield, San Diego brought in veteran safety Dwight Lowery, inking the 30-year-old to a three-year pact. Lowery has bounced around the league since joining the Jets as a fourth-round pick in 2008, spending time with the Jaguars, Falcons, and most recently, the Colts. He’s been up-and-down throughout his career, and is probably a replacement-level safety at this point, but Lowery will help solidify a secondary that is now without franchise mainstay Eric Weddle.

Speaking of organizational icons, the Chargers agreed to a two-year deal to retain tight end Antonio Gates, who is entering his 14th season with the team. Gates, who turned 36 years old last month, is a surefire future Hall of Famer, as only Tony Gonzalez posted more approximate value among tight ends. And while Gates has no speed left which to speak of, he can still play, as evidenced by his 56 receptions and five touchdowns in only 11 games last season.Antonio Gates

But San Diego re-signed Gates at the expense of fellow tight Ladarius Green, who is not only a full decade younger than Gates, but proved he could post similar results during the first four games of the year when Gates was suspended. Additionally, Green actually signed for cheaper than Gates in terms of annual value and guarantees. Yes, Green’s total contract is worth more, but he’ll earn less over the next two seasons than Gates, and will likely produce more, as well.

Jeff Cumberland, meanwhile, is likely wishing he would’ve waited until after the draft before signing with a new club, as his role as the Chargers’ second tight end role has been usurped by second-round draft pick Hunter Henry. Bolts tight end coach John McNulty said last month that Cumberland is “still carving out” his role, which figures to entail a lot of special teams work, given that Henry is an excellent blocker and doesn’t figure to come off the field much, especially since San Diego uses a lot of two tight end sets.

Aside from the two tight ends, the Chargers’ only other notable skill position signing was that of former Browns wide receiver Travis Benjamin, who also drew interest from the Texans and Chiefs before agreeing to aTravis Benjamin (vertical) four-year deal. Benjamin, 26, ranks 15th in yards per reception among receivers with at least 100 catches since 2012 (the year Benjamin was drafted), so he’ll be an eerily similar replacement for Malcom Floyd, who regularly averaged more than 17 yards per reception.

Still, it’s fair to wonder how productive Benajmin will be in San Diego given that offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt has returned to town, bringing his quick-passing offense with him. During Whisenhunt’s previous stint as OC (2013), Floyd missed almost the entire season with injury, so it’s difficult to visualize how a deep threat will be used in Whisenhunt’s scheme. In a system that relies on getting the ball out swiftly in order to alleviate any offensive line concerns, and focuses more on receptions from running backs, tight ends, and possession receivers like Keenan Allen, Benjamin might struggle to live up to his contract.

Finally, the Chargers added a stout presence to the interior of a defensive line that struggled against the run last season (31st in rushing defense DVOA, 27th in rushing yards allowed), luring defensive tackle Brandon Mebane away from the Seahawks with a three-year contract. Like Barksdale on the offensive side of the ball, Mebane is a fine defender, but this deal strikes as an overpay.

Mebane, 31, won’t be doing much more than acting as a run-stuffer in San Diego, and younger players with better skillsets got paid less on the open market this spring. Jaye Howard scored a very similar contract with the Chiefs, but he’s four years younger than Mebane and a superior defender. Ian Williams is only 26, and while injury concerns killed his market, the Chargers could’ve taken a risk on someone like the 49ers defensive tackle. Former Lions/Titans defender Sammie Lee Hill offers similar production to Mebane, and he’s still sitting on the free agent market, meaning he’ll likely have to settle for a minimum salary deal. San Diego had other ways to spend this money — and address their defensive line — making the Mebane contract ill-advised.

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Impact Rookies: Cleveland Browns

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Cleveland Browns’ draft class:

Whether the formula works, or not, Cleveland came out of the draft after making a flurry of trades with fourteen youngsters to vie for roster spots. By trading down from the second overall spot, the Browns definitely added quantity, but you can see that they still have a primary need – quarterback. The Eagles packaged a deal with the Browns and went home happy with their quarterback catch in North Dakota’s Carson Wentz. Meanwhile, Cleveland invested $15MM in a quarterback who could go down as one of the biggest draft day mistakes ever, Washington castoff Robert Griffin III.

For a sum of $15,072,000 in 2016, Cleveland enters training camp with a quarterback stable that includes Griffin (7.5 mil), Josh McCown (4.7 mil), Austin Davis ($2.025 mil) and Cody Kessler (847K). While the coaches are saying all nice things about Griffin coming out of mini camp, one has to wonder if they’re not sold on him since they also kept McCown.

By the time the team was able to pick in the first round, they were not in love with the quarterback left behind (Paxton Lynch) and went after filling their second-biggest need at wide receiver, bringing in the electrifying Corey Coleman. The Browns stepped away from the usual “best available athlete” draft mode used by most teams, as they went for needs with their first four selections. Checking off the big need at receiver with Coleman, UCLA’s Jordan Payton and Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins, the team turned their attention to the defensive line that featured one of the worst sack units in the league.

In fact, they doubled down at the defensive end position, first, taking Oklahoma State’s Emmanuel Ogbah in the second round, followed by Penn State sack artist Carl Nassib in the next phase. There is talk of turning Ogbah into an outside linebacker, rather than playing him on the front wall, but the team should look back at their recent draft history to see how they utterly failed in their attempts to convert Barkevious Mingo, the team’s first pick in the 2013 draft, into a stand-up second level performer.

That plan could change by training camp, as recent pectoral muscle surgery by Desmond Bryant will sideline the starting left end for four-to-six months. That could give both their second and third round selections great opportunities to join the first unit. Early money says it will be Nassib, who rocked the backfield to the tune of 15.5 sacks during his breakout 2015 season. Ogbah chipped in with thirteen sacks and nineteen quarterback pressures. Last year, Cleveland finished with 29 sacks, which ranked 28th in the NFL.

When you look at the Browns’ entire draft picture, unless the first four players contribute immediately, if could be a head scratcher by the end of the season and yet another front office blow up. They invested a fourth round pick in Princeton tight end Seth DeValve, who was rated no better than the 47th-best tight end in the draft on most war room boards. He enters camp listed fourth on the depth chart and will battle five other tight ends for what will likely be three spots on the roster. The rest of their draft picks might be the perfect formula to put an insomniac to sleep.

There are plenty of question marks in this group, but these players could put exclamation points on their frosh seasons in the NFL:

First Round – Corey Coleman, WR (Baylor University, No. 15 overall)

Whether it is a fellow former Baylor Bear at quarterback or the aging veteran (perhaps the rookie from USC can make some noise later in the year, if all else fails), the Browns knew they could not go into the season with their obvious lack of depth at the wide receiver position. Knowing they needed a playmaker who could replace the 68 receptions recorded by Travis Benjamin, who left via free agency, their logical choice was Coleman, preferring the little speedster over other blue chip first round talent like Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, and Laquon Treadwell. Corey Coleman

Sports hernia surgery prevented the Bears prospect from playing past the 2015 regular season schedule, but despite missing bowl action, he pulled in 74-of-127 targeted passes (58.27%), as he had twelve passes batted away from him and dropped four others. Even though Baylor quarterbacks often misfired (37 targeted passes to Coleman failed to reach him), his 74 grabs rank fifth on the school season-record list. He finished ninth in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision ranks with 1,363 receiving yards and he led the nation with a school-record 20 touchdown catches, shattering the previous mark of fourteen by Kendall Wright in 2011.

Among Coleman’s 74 receptions, he recorded 47 first downs (63.51%), converting 9-of-17 third-down opportunities. He gained at least ten yards on 38 grabs, including going distances of 20 yards or longer on 20 of those receptions. In addition to his 20 touchdowns, he had key catches to set up five other touchdown drives.

[RELATED: Browns Have No Plans To Cut Isaiah Crowell]

After he generated 216 yards behind eleven receptions in the Kansas State contest, Coleman started to feel the effects from a nagging groin injury. During the course of his next four appearances, he failed to reach the end zone and averaged 46.25 yards per game on a total of sixteen catches. The sports hernia discovery would keep him out of action vs. North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Soon after, Coleman announced that he would not be returning to school in 2016 and had entered the draft.

Coleman’s best asset is his timed speed, as he has more than enough quickness to elude in the open field, with adequate strength to fight for the ball in a crowd. He is the type of player that teams covet – one with the rare playing speed to stretch the defense, showing the burst needed to beat angles. He demonstrates excellent athleticism for his position, as few opposing defenders can mirror him on deep routes due to his speed. He not only has the speed to threaten the deep secondary – he also has the body control, lateral quickness, and change of direction agility to make the underneath catches.

The former Baylor star he has good eyes for locating the soft areas to settle in and shows good awareness for the comebacks. He is quick to recognize coverage and adjust to what the secondary gives him. He also is alert enough to know when he has to work back to the ball, especially when dealing with an erratic quarterback. Coleman is a classic deep threat, used mostly to stretch the field. He gives good effort working underneath, but there are still times when he will short arm when going for the ball over the middle or when facing the quarterback.

He can make some noise in 2016, particularly if Gordon is not reinstated.

Continue reading about the Browns’ rookie class..

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Impact Rookies: Baltimore Ravens

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Baltimore Ravens’ draft class:

The Ravens brought home a cache of eleven players from the draft proceedings and even with them falling just short of a dozen newcomers, it is obvious that the team really needs to get healthy. With a gaggle of starters and substitutes watching from the sidelines last year, one hopes that Baltimore management took full advantage of Obamacare.

The Ravens would reach a dubious record in 2015, as they placed twenty players on injured reserve, the highest figure in head coach John Harbaugh’s eight seasons at the helm. That total grows when you factor in the players that went down before the season even started. The expanded list includes starting tight end Dennis Pitta, whose hip woes kept him parked in the trainer’s room. The team also placed linebacker Zach Thompson (shoulder) on injured reserve prior to his release.

With that in mind, this look at the Ravens’ impact rookies for 2016 will include the team’s 2015 first-round choice:

2015 First Round Selection – Breshad Perriman, WR (Central Florida, No. 26 overall in 2015)

This series typically focuses on rookies from the 2016 class but, technically, Perriman is still a rookie, having spent his first season on the sidelines with a knee injury. With all of the injuries suffered by his receivers, Harbaugh is going to have a lot of questions he needs answered by that unit during training camp, with Perriman being the biggest question mark. Breshad Perriman (vertical)

The Ravens expect that Perriman will be ready for Week 1 after suffering another knee injury this offseason and they are banking on that being an accurate prognosis with Steve Smith still recovering and Darren Waller suspended for the first four games of the season. Perriman, a questionable pick even when he was healthy in 2015, now faces another grueling rehab while his teammates sweat out in the summer heat. A recent MRI revealed that the extent of the recent knee damage would not require reconstructive surgery, but the player who is blessed with great athleticism, still has yet to answer if he is a football player or just a Combine/Pro Day darling.

Perriman’s three seasons at Central Florida produced 115 catches, as his 2,243 aerial yards rest ninth on the school’s career-record chart. He also shares the ninth spot on the all-time chart with sixteen touchdown catches. Now, he hopes that his pro career will produce similar numbers to his father, Brett, who spent ten seasons in the league and recorded 6,589 yards behind 525 receptions that included 30 touchdowns.

Perriman makes good body adjustments to locate the soft spot in the zone. He is a fairly smooth runner, but needs to be quicker in his routes. He is really just a strider who must stay low in his pads to effectively create advantage. He has to do a better job of planting and driving out of his cuts, as he sometimes gathers too much and gears down in doing this. Despite his timed speed (4.52 in the 40-yard dash), he might not have the explosion you look for coming out of his breaks, having to rely upon his size and leaping ability to get to most throws.

Perriman is better served on bubble screens, hitches and post patterns because he takes soft angles rather than sharp 90-degree cuts. Still, he does have the loose hips to change direction and the weave to slip and avoid underneath tackles. When used underneath, he is capable of making better cuts than he does on deep routes. He has quick feet in transition, but just a modest burst to separate. He has more success getting open when he weaves and leverages to move defenders and create space. He is more effective on quick slants and bubble screens due to his long reach.

Perriman will never be confused for a racehorse after catching the ball, as he does not have that explosive separation ability, but he has the functional leg drive to get through initial tackles. He keeps his shoulders square to absorb blows and while he is not a load to bring down in the open, once he gets his legs churning, he can power through.

If the 2015 first rounder does make it back by the season opener, he will likely line up behind Kamar Aiken at the split end position. Aiken led the team with 75 receptions and five touchdowns last year, but that was one of the few bright spots from a unit that placed Baltimore tied for 23rd in the league, as they only scored 21 times through the air. The Ravens receivers failed to get to 37% of Flacco’s passes, either by running poor routes or not concentrating well and that saw the defense take advantage, picking off 21 passes, which tied for third-worst in the league. If healthy, Perriman will have an opportunity to make a mark in his deferred rookie campaign.

Continue reading about the Ravens’ rookie class..

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Impact Rookies: Cincinnati Bengals

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Cincinnati Bengals’ draft class:

The Bengals are soon to reap the benefits from another solid draft, as the first four selections in 2016 all appear to be of starting quality. Their cache from the 2015 draft saw all ten of those selections play for the team last year. They were so impressed with one of their late round finds, that the team let go several key pieces in their secondary to bring fresh legs into the fold. Now, all seven of their draft picks in 2016 have the same opportunity as the previous draft class to claim roster spots.

First Round – William Jackson III, CB (Houston, No. 24)

The Bengals let Leon Hall walk in order to keep Adam Jones, as the right cornerback signed a three-year deal that keeps him in the fold until 2019. The team will make a strong effort to keep Dre Kirkpatrick around as the left cornerback, but he is a free agent after the season and might be in line for a big deal if he can improve upon his 2015 performance. William Jackson III (vertical)

In 2015, the Bengals covered their potential loss of Andre Smith by drafting two tackles. This year, the Bengals tapped William Jackson III as insurance against Kirkpatrick’s possible departure. If Kirkpatrick goes, then Jackson and 2014 first-round pick Darqueze Dennard will be counted upon to lead the secondary in 2017 and beyond.

Jackson was considered a “lockdown corner” for the Houston Cougars after he appeared in thirteen games and finished second in the American Athletic Conference with ten pass breakups in 2014. He also picked off two passes and tallied 37 tackles. Last season, the All-American led the nation and set a Houston single-season record with 23 pass deflections. He also led the nation in passes defended with 28, finishing 20th with five interceptions. He concluded his career ranked third on the UH career passes broken up chart with 40, despite only playing three seasons.

Some other “good news” numbers include Jackson recording six turnovers and coming up with 22 third-down stops. On the “bad news” scale, while he defended so many passes, it could be due to quarterbacks constantly throwing into his area. The Cougar was targeted 93 times in 2016, allowing 41 receptions (44.09%) for 460 yards, an average of 11.22 yards per grab, with receivers totaling seven big plays (20 yards or longer) and twenty first downs vs. the defender, reaching the end zone three times. In run support, he made just five tackles.

Jackson is certainly not going to impress you with being a great physical presence on the field, but he does demonstrate excellent speed (4.37 in the 40-yard dash) and jump- ball timing. He is very consistent in being “getting into the face” of a receiver. He opens his hips well when asked to handle switch-offs on deep patterns and moves well in space, but he certainly lacks any sort of punch and physicality when required to deliver press coverage (recorded ten reps in the 225-pound bench press drill). His leaping ability helps him get to most balls though and he always seems to get his hands on the pigskin, even when he isn’t in great position.

Jackson fails to sink his hips low enough or explode into his hits when asked to wrap and tackle in run support. Still, as a pass defender, his timing is impeccable, evident by his nation-leading 28 passes defended that included five interceptions in 2015.

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PFR Originals: 7/10/16 – 7/17/16

The original analysis and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Community Tailgate: Biggest Deadline Surprise

The July 15 deadline for a club to extend a franchise-tagged player came and went accompanied by a typical flurry of activity, and now that the dust has settled, we would like for you to weigh in on the biggest surprise of deadline day. However, given that the whole football world was taken aback by the Muhammad Wilkerson extension, we’ll make it a little harder on you and take that development off the table for this discussion.

As of July 14, the franchise-tagged club looked like this (of course, the extension that Cordy Glenn signed with the Bills and the Panthers’ decision to rescind Josh Norman‘s tag removed two players from this group):

Franchise players (exclusive):

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

At one point, it seemed likely that Berry and the Chiefs would put pen to paper on a long-term deal, but while both sides remain optimistic that Berry will be manning the defensive backfield in Kansas City for the foreseeable future, they could not come together on a multi-year contract and will have to revisit those talks after the season.

And while it had been reported for some time that Cousins would likely play out the 2016 campaign under the franchise tag, did anyone think Wilkerson was more likely than Washington’s quarterback to score a massive extension? After all, both the Redskins and Cousins are taking major gambles here. If Cousins’ 2016 season looks anything like his 2015 campaign, the Redskins will have cost themselves a great deal of money–although it’s hard to imagine they would be complaining too much–but if Cousins should struggle, he might have cost himself any semblance of long-term security. Plus, although neither Rich Tandler nor Tarik El-Bashier of CSNWashington.com believe Cousins will feel added pressure in 2016 as a result of the fact that he does not have a multi-year deal under his belt, it is hard to imagine it will not at least cross his mind.

And then we have the sheer numbers of Miller’s contract, which are beyond staggering. Although both sides did a fair amount of predictable posturing over the course of their negotiations, it was hard to imagine that Miller would sit out the 2016 season, or that the Broncos would trade their superstar pass rusher. But did even those who predicted that the two sides would strike a deal think the deal would be quite as lucrative as it is?

So have at it. What was the biggest surprise of deadline day (non-Wilkerson division)? The Miller deal, the Cousins or Berry non-deal, or something else entirely? And if you want to weigh in with your thoughts about the Wilkerson extension, feel free to do so.

Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys entered the 2015 season with championship aspirations, but ruinous injuries to franchise cornerstones Tony Romo and Dez Bryant helped torpedo their hopes and send them to a 4-12 finish. With Romo and Bryant back, the Cowboys expect to rebound from last year’s fourth-worst showing – one in which they went 2-6 in one-score games – and it looks as though they’ll have to rely heavily on their star quarterback and receiver (and rookie running back) in order to climb back atop what should be a wide-open NFC East.

Notable signings:

Although it’s obviously a big-market franchise, Dallas took a rather modest approach to free agency. Financially speaking, Cedric Thorntonits most significant transaction was to pilfer defensive lineman Cedric Thornton from division-rival Philadelphia for $17MM over four years, including $6MM in guarantees. Thornton, 28, started in every one of his appearances with the Eagles from 2013-15 (45 in total) and mostly served as an end in their 3-4 alignment. He’ll switch to tackle in the Cowboys’ 4-3, which he played in sparingly as a rookie with the Eagles in 2012. The 309-pound Thornton has a mere four sacks on his resume, though he does have a reputation as a quality run defender. Pro Football Focus ranked Thornton just outside the top 30 of interior defenders against the run last season (and a far better eighth among 3-4 DEs in 2014), so he’s primed to aid a Cowboys defense that allowed the 19th-highest yards-per-carry average in the league and had the fourth-worst DVOA versus rushing attacks in 2015. Now that he’s out of the shadow of Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan, Thornton should experience an uptick in playing time over the 40.6 percent of snaps he appeared in last year. He figures to start alongside Tyrone Crawford on the Cowboys’ interior.

After Thornton, the largest monetary commitment the Cowboys made during the winter was to defensive end Benson Mayowa, a restricted free agent they pried out of Oakland with a three-year, $8.25MM offer sheet and $3.3MM in guarantees. The Raiders deemed the 24-year-old inessential to their cause when they declined to match the Cowboys’ offer to Mayowa, who has only made three starts in his NFL career. Mayowa amassed a combined 30 appearances for the Seahawks and Raiders from 2013-15 and recorded 16 tackles, a sack and two fumble recoveries last season. Despite his lack of experience and relative anonymity, the Cowboys are betting on a noteworthy edge-rushing future from Mayowa, as chief operating officer Stephen Jones said upon signing him. Considering the Cowboys ranked 25th in the league in sacks last year (31) and have since opted against re-signing pass-rushing threat Greg Hardy and fellow end Jeremy Mincey, and have lost Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory to quarter-season suspensions, they’ll need a Mayowa breakout sooner than later.

Joining Gregory and Lawrence on the suspended list is middle linebacker Rolando McClain, whom the team brought back for a third year at a palatable cost ($4MM total, $500K guaranteed). Four months later, the league banned McClain for 10 games thanks to another violation of its substance abuse policy. McClain, 26, will sit for 10 games this year after an earlier suspension kept him out of four contests last season.

Rolando McClainMcClain clearly brings plenty of baggage, but his loss should be a damaging one for Dallas on the field after he played in 60.4 percent of its defensive snaps last season, piled up 80 tackles, two sacks and an interception, and graded as PFF’s 28th-best linebacker among 97 qualifiers. McClain’s suspension this late in the game no doubt puts the Cowboys behind the 8-ball, as free agency isn’t exactly teeming with high-end replacements. PFR’s Dallas Robinson ran down several available options in the wake of McClain’s suspension, with ex-Cowboy Justin Durant among them. The Cowboys have since contacted Durant about a reunion, though no deal has materialized yet and a source informed Robinson that they’re content with their McClain-less linebacker corps.

If Dallas doesn’t sign anyone, the in-house favorite to replace McClain is Anthony Hitchens, who finished third among Cowboys linebackers in snap percentage last year (50.9) while playing on the inside and outside. Hitchens didn’t draw praise from PFF, though, which rated him as the league’s 69th overall LB. It was only his second season, however, so there’s still room for growth from the 2014 fourth-round pick. Regardless, as Robinson noted, Hitchens was already on track to start prior to McClain’s suspension, so the latter’s absence could force Kyle Wilber into a top role on the strong side. Wilber took part in a paltry 21.2 percent of defensive snaps for the club last season and accumulated 24 tackles, and the Cowboys were encouraged enough to retain him on a two-year, $3.25MM deal.

Continue reading about the Cowboy’s offseason…

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NFL Franchise Tag Contract Deadline Primer

**Updated Friday morning, 10:12am CT**

This afternoon, we’ll know the fates of seven franchise-tagged players for the 2016 season and beyond. If their respective teams do not sign them to long-term contracts by 4pm ET/3pm CT, Broncos linebacker Von Miller, Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, Chiefs safety Eric Berry, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson, and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker will all play out the 2016 season on their one-year franchise tenders.

Will some of these players will reach lucrative multi-year deals between now and Friday afternoon? Or could we see all seven players nudged towards free agency in 2017? Here’s a complete rundown of what’s happening with each of these seven players as the deadline approaches:

Franchise Tag With Text (vertical)

Von Miller, Broncos

This offseason, Von Miller went from Dancing With The Stars to wrestling with the Broncos. Naturally, there is strong mutual interest in a new multi-year deal between Denver and the reigning Super Bowl MVP and the two sides even seem to have agreed upon terms of about $114.5MM over six years. However, there remains a significant gulf between the two sides when it comes to guaranteed money and cashflow in the first couple of years. As we’ve seen before, NFL contract terms are often not what they appear to be on the surface. In this league, you can be promised a small fortune, but it doesn’t mean much unless a significant portion of it is guaranteed and comes early on in the deal when the team values you most. Von Miller (vertical)

Back in June, the Broncos offered up a six-year, $114.5MM deal with nearly $40MM guaranteed in the first two years. However, Miller wanted more in the way of guaranteed cash and wanted a higher payout in the first three years. Soon after, Miller doubled down on his threat to hold out in 2016 if he does not get the multi-year deal that he is after and his teammates say that he’s not bluffing. Would one of the league’s best defensive players and fiercest competitors really stay home all year long rather than chase another ring and earn more than $14MM? It’s hard to imagine, but there’s also considerable incentive for Miller to stick to his guns in this situation.

If Miller opts to sit out the 2016 season, the Broncos will only be able to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on him and will not have the exclusive franchise tag at their disposal. Typically, a team that is able to pry a player away on the non-exclusive tag would have to forfeit two first-round picks to the former team. However, per the terms of the CBA, the compensation price would drop from two first-round picks to a first and a third if Miller were to sit out. Some teams would consider forfeiting two first-round choices to land Miller and even more teams would mull it over if that price drops to a first- and third-round choice.

Reportedly, Miller still harbors resentment towards the Broncos for the way that talks have gone this offseason. However, things could be changing now that Denver has updated their offer to give Miller $70MM in “solid guarantees.”

Because of Miller’s holdout threat, there’s arguably more at stake for the Broncos than the other six teams negotiating with their franchise-tagged stars.

Kirk Cousins, Redskins

After a breakout 2015 season, Kirk Cousins wants to be paid like a top NFL quarterback. The Redskins, meanwhile, want to see him do it all over again in 2016 before committing major dollars to him across a five or six-year period.

Kirk Cousins (Vertical)After watching Brock Osweiler go from backup to baller this offseason, Cousins’ camp is salivating at his potential payday on the open market. For Cousins to forego a shot at free agency down the line, his agents are demanding $43.89MM in guarantees over the first two years of the pact, for starters. Wonder where that number comes from? That’s the combined value of the 2016 franchise tag ($19.95MM) and the franchise tag in 2017 ($23.94MM), if the Redskins were to use it again. If Washington wanted to go for an unprecedented three-peat of franchise tags, it would cost them $34.47MM (!) in 2018.

Cousins earned just $660K in 2015, making him one of the league’s very best values last year. Now, he’s looking to cash in on his next deal and he’s made it clear that he’s willing to bet on himself in 2016. As of this writing, the two sides are not expected to come to an accord by Friday afternoon.

Alshon Jeffery, Bears

Alshon Jeffery is regarded as one of the league’s top wide receivers – when he’s healthy. That’s likely the sticking point for the Bears, who want to see the 26-year-old give them a complete season before they give him enough money to buy his own private island. The 6’3″, 216-pound receiver missed six games during his rookie season because of hand and knee injuries. Last year, he sat out seven contests due to calf, hamstring, groin, and shoulder ailments. Alshon Jeffery (Vertical)

However, despite missing a good chunk of the 2016 season, Jeffery still racked up 54 catches for 807 yards and four touchdowns. Since his breakout campaign in 2013, the former second-round pick has averaged 89 receptions, 1,312 yards, and eight touchdowns per 16 games. Jeffery might not have a perfect attendance record, but he is a true game-changer when he is on the field.

Right now, it doesn’t sound like the Bears are going to get a deal done with Jeffery. GM Ryan Pace doesn’t have any qualms about moving on from players of the past regime and he could theoretically allow Jeffery to walk thanks to the presence of Kevin White.

Continue reading about the rest of this year’s franchise-tagged stars:

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Impact Rookies: Miami Dolphins

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Miami Dolphins’ draft class:

Well, I must say, the folks in South Beach surely know how to make draft day proceedings interesting. On Day One, they somehow managed to walk away with a player most had been calling the best prospect in the draft – Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil slid to the Dolphins at No. 13 due to a myriad of off-field issues back in college that was capped by a social media disaster (love your head gear, Laremy, but in the NFL, you have to wear a Riddell model).

The Dolphins entered the draft with eight selections and went home with the same, but they played a little bit of musical chairs in swapping out draft slots before they were done. They even ended playing doing ping-pong with the No. 186 overall selection in round six. Miami had first made a deal with Minnesota, sending two mid-round 2017 slots, along with pick No. 186 to the Vikings in order to move up and select Rutgers receiver Leonte Caroo with the draft’s 86th pick (round three). As the draft continued, the two teams again came to a deal – this time, Minnesota returned that No. 186 selection to South Beach for the No. 196 and No. 227 overall choices. They then used that choice to snatch another receiver, taking Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant.

After an entertaining and active draft weekend, here are the Dolphins rookies that I expect to make a mark in 2016:

First Round – Laremy Tunsil, OT (Ole Miss, No. 13 overall)

The new Miami coaching staff is looking to make major changes to their offensive front wall and Tunsil, if he lives up to his college hype, could be that unit’s foundation, much like high-priced veteran Ndamukong Suh is for the defensive line. Despite some poor decisions in life, there is no questioning Tunsil’s talent, but now comes the task of getting him into the lineup from Day One.

The coaches have slotted the rookie into the left guard spot, lining him up next to a man he will eventually replace at left tackle – Branden Albert. Gone from the first unit is 2015 left guard starter, Dallas Thomas. The team also signed New Orleans castoff, Jermon Bushrod. If the former Saint has anything left in the tank, he gives the Dolphins left side of the line three capable bodies to move around, if injuries do occur during the season.

Continue reading about Tunsil and the rest of the Dolphins’ rookie class..

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens’ 2015 campaign was ruined by injury and under-performance as marquee players like Terrell Suggs, Joe Flacco, and Steve Smith saw their seasons cut short by injury while others like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley failed to live up to expectations. Indeed, if Baltimore is competitive in 2016, it will be as much as a result of its ability to stay healthy as anything else.

But the team did make efforts to address its beleaguered secondary and add some much-needed youth and athleticism to its pass rush, and Flacco, who has never been had an elite group of offensive weapons, could be working with his best collection of talent to date. The AFC North again looks as if it will again be one of the toughest divisions in the league in 2016, so Baltimore will need to make the most out of that talent to keep pace with the Steelers and Bengals.

Notable signings:

Eric Weddle (vertical)The Ravens made a rare foray into the deep end of the free agent waters this year, and they came away with one of the biggest catches in safety Eric Weddle. Weddle instantly provides credibility and stability to a secondary that sorely needs it, and his presence alone should give the unit a major boost. The team will also move Lardarius Webb from cornerback to safety on a permanent basis, a transition that should suit the veteran’s skill-set fairly well. As long as both players can stay healthy, a Weddle/Webb safety tandem certainly looks as if it will be a significant upgrade over last year’s primary duo of Kendrick Lewis and Will Hill.

But even if the Ravens’ safety performance is markedly improved, their cornerback prognosis is still questionable. Jimmy Smith, whose 2014 season was cut short by a Lisfranc injury, still appeared to be ailing in 2015, as he was beaten deep on numerous occasions and was rated by Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) as the 77th-best corner out of 111 eligible players. While Shareece Wright was a pleasant surprise and was rewarded for his strong 2015 campaign with a new three-year contract in March, it is not as if he has an especially illustrious track record, and it is difficult to predict whether his 2015 success will carry over to 2016.

The team also brought in Jerraud Powers, who is a solid but unspectacular player and who lasted for a surprisingly long time on the market before inking a one-year deal with Baltimore two months after free agency opened. Powers is much better in the slot than he is outside the hash marks, but the Ravens already have several other players who fit the same description in rookie Tavon Young and last-year’s free agent acquisition Kyle Arrington. It can never hurt to have too much depth, as the Ravens know all too well, and Arrington is widely considered to be a candidate for release in the coming months, so it would clear up the nickel corner picture a bit if he were to receive his walking papers. In any event, Baltimore will be relying on uncertain talent at the top two spots on its cornerback depth chart, with Jimmy Smith holding down one of those spots and Powers or Wright presumably manning the other. The addition of Weddle will make the rest of the secondary better, but it does not answer all of the questions the Ravens have in the defensive backfield.

Another of the team’s major free agent acquisitions was Mike Wallace, who is coming off a disappointing one-year stint in Minnesota. On paper, Wallace’s speed and big-play ability–which may have diminished some since his heyday in Pittsburgh but which could still be unlocked in in the right circumstances–look to be a perfect fit with Flacco’s cannon arm and penchant for the deep ball. Last season, the Ravens were counting on 2015 first-rounder Breshad Perriman to replace the speed element that the team’s offense lost when Torrey Smith took his talents to San Francisco, but Perriman was never able to recover after a knee injury suffered in training camp, and Flacco was left with Steve Smith and a plethora of underwhelming targets. Perriman’s health is once again up in the air, but with Wallace and rookie Chris Moore in the picture, Baltimore should be better-equipped to handle Perriman’s absence.

The third major free agent acquisition was Ben Watson, who will join a largely uncertain but potentially dynamic crop of tight ends. Watson, who will turn 36 in December, had a terrific year with the Saints in 2015, posting career bests in receptions (74) and receiving yards (825) while matching his career best in touchdowns (six). Dennis Pitta, who missed almost all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons, and who sat out the entire 2015 season, is attempting to come back from his second major hip injury, but given the nature of the injury and the amount of time he has spent on the shelf, it is difficult to say whether he will even crack the team’s roster, let alone return to his pre-2013 level of performance. Third-year player Crockett Gillmore and second-year Maxx Williams have shown flashes in their young careers, and both have a fair amount of upside (particularly Williams, the consensus top tight end in the 2015 draft), but they are still unproven as pass catchers. If nothing else, Watson is a reliable starter, and if Pitta can stay healthy and Gillmore and Williams continue to make strides, the Ravens will be forced to keep four tight ends on the roster for the first time in recent history. And that could be a good thing considering the fact that offensive coordinator Marc Trestman loves getting the ball to his tight ends and the age/question marks at wide receiver. Ben Watson (vertical)

Justin Tucker, meanwhile, signed his franchise tender and could still sign a long-term deal prior to the July 15 deadline, a deal that would most likely make him the highest-paid kicker in the league. He suffered something of a regression in 2015, posting a career-worst field goal percentage of 82.5%, but of his seven misses, six were from 50 yards and beyond, so it’s not as if he has suddenly lost his touch. Even if the two sides do not reach an agreement on a multi-year contract prior to July 15, Tucker will almost certainly remain in Baltimore for the foreseeable future.

Continue reading about the Ravens’ offseason…

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