PFR Originals News & Rumors

PFR Originals: 7/3/16 – 7/10/16

The original content, analysis, and reporting produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

How The Cowboys Could Replace Rolando McClain

For the second consecutive season, Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain will serve a suspension for violating the NFL’s policy on substance abuse. In 2015, Dallas only had to survive without McClain for a quarter of the season, but given that McClain is facing a 10-game ban for 2016, the Cowboys will need to more seriously consider how they’re going to make up for the loss of their middle linebacker.

We’ve examined how Dallas might go about finding a replacement for McClain, looking at players already on the Cowboys’ roster, free agents sitting on the open market, and veterans who could be on the roster bubble with their respective clubs. Let’s dive in…

Internal options:

The primary name being floated to replace McClain in the middle is third-year linebacker Anthony Hitchens, whom the Cowboys selected in the fourth round of the 2014 draft. Thing is, Hitchens was already a starter — he played on the inside in Anthony Hitchens (Vertical)McClain’s absence last year, and then moved to the outside, ultimately seeing action on about half of Dallas’ defensive snaps. So if Hitchens is being counted on to man the middle full-time, including in sub packages, the Cowboys would need to find a replacement at strong-side linebacker, meaning Kyle Wilber and/or Andrew Gachkar could see meaningful snaps after spending most of their respective careers as special teams players.

[RELATED: Updated Dallas Cowboys depth chart]

Gachkar, meanwhile, is another option to fill in at middle linebacker, and he has experience at the position. If chosen, Gachkar would likely be a two-down player, as Pro Football Focus’ grades have shown him to be effective against the run but a liability in pass coverage. The 27-year-old has never been a major defensive contributor — he was forced to step into the starting lineup when the Chargers suffered a variety of injuries at the linebacker position in 2014, but even then, he only played on 36.5% of San Diego’s defensive snaps.

The “wild card” in this race is second-year player Mark Nzeocha, according to Bryan Broaddus of the Cowboys’ website. A seventh-round pick in last year’s draft, Nzeocha only appeared in two games during his rookie season, managing 14 snaps, all of which came on special teams. Extremely athletic, Nzeocha was all over the field at Wyoming, playing safety and all three linebacker positions. His learning curve might be steep, but he clearly has all the physical tools to play the position.

A source tells PFR that the Cowboys are, for the most part, satisfied with the current state of their linebacker room, and are looking forward to have their young players compete for playing time while McClain is suspended. Dallas, says the source, hasn’t shown a lot of interest in scouring the free agent market for substitutes, so one of Hitchens, Gachkar, or Nzeocha might be the favorite to earn significant snaps this fall.

Free agents:

Donald Butler — After selecting Denzel Perryman in 2015 and Joshua Perry in this year’s draft, the Chargers parted ways with Butler, who had spent the past five seasons with the club. At age-27, Butler is the youngest free agent option on this list, but he’s coming off the worst season of his career, having posted just 40 tackles during the 2016 campaign. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune accused Butler of “losing interest” after receiving a massive extension prior to the 2014 season, so perhaps some other clubs have made that same assessment.Justin Durant (vertical)

Justin Durant — Durant started 12 games for the Falcons last year, but prior to his time in Atlanta he spent two seasons with the Cowboys, so at the very least he’d offer some familiarity with Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli‘s playbook. Versatility is another point in Durant’s favor, as he played mostly inside linebacker with Atlanta and Detroit, roamed the middle during his Jacksonville tenure, and moved between both positions with the Cowboys.

A.J. Hawk — The Bengals signed Hawk to a two-year deal before the 2015 campaign, but despite injuries limiting fellow linebacker Vontaze Burfict to just 10 games, Hawk rarely saw the field, playing on roughly a quarter of Cincinnati’s defensive snaps. Hawk recently told Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer that although he’s aware a club might not express interest until late in camp (or perhaps after the season begins), he’s staying in shape in the hopes of receiving a phone call.

David Hawthorne — Like Durant, Hawthorne offers positional versatility, having seen action at both inside and outside linebacker. In 2015, Hawthorne was shifted to the weak side in favor of rookie Stephone Anthony, but was then benched, declared inactive, and ultimately released after an unproductive season. Still, he’s got 83 career starts under his belt, and would presumably feel comfortable in the middle of the Dallas defense.

Keep reading for more external options that could be on the Cowboys’ radar…

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Browns

While the NBA’s Cavaliers have brought a title back to Cleveland, the city’s true love remains the Browns, a club which is seemingly stuck in a cycle of perpetual reassembly. After once again overhauling their front office and coaching staff, the team finally seems to have to be moving in the right direction, formulating a plan both for free agency and the draft (and sticking to it). The 2016 Browns offseason may not have been flashy, but the organization accomplished a number of goals and — more importantly — accrued assets, all with an eye towards the future.

Notable signings:

The Browns entered the free agent period armed with nearly $50MM in cap space, but given that they’re in the midst of a full rebuild, they didn’t figure to spend much of it. And they didn’t, as the club still has roughly $42MM in 2016 cap room. But while Cleveland wasn’t very active over the past several months,the team did manage to ink a few interesting free agents, and former Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III is atop that list.

Griffin isn’t the only signal-caller on the Browns’ roster, as Josh McCown, Austin Davis, and third-round rookie Cody Kessler are also under the team’s employ. Cleveland reportedly did not promise Griffin the starting job, but all expectations are Robert Griffin III Browns (vertical)that he will be under center come Week 1. Head coach Hue Jackson likely won’t officially name a starter until the preseason begins, but with rumors swirling that McCown could be traded (or released), Griffin is the overwhelming favorite to handle snaps for the Browns.

And for a team in transition, Griffin makes a ton of sense as a high-upside play. There’s no question that Griffin, who is still only 26 years old, never built upon the highs of his 2012 campaign, when he was named the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. But despite reports of infighting and constant media attention on his situation in Washington, Griffin handled his time in the nation’s capital relatively well, especially during the past two years when he was benched in favor of Kirk Cousins. Signed to what is effectively a one-year deal with an option for 2017, both Griffin and the Browns have quite a bit to gain from this working relationship.

Cleveland’s only other significant addition on the offensive side of the ball was former Seahawks offensive lineman Alvin Bailey, whom the club lured with a three-year agreement. Bailey never made a true impact during his time with Seattle, although he does have youth on his side, as he won’t turn 25 until next month. However, it’s telling that Bailey could never find his way into the Seahawks’ starting lineup on a consistent basis given how poor Seattle’s offensive line has been in recent years (he only played Demario Davis (Vertical)about a quarter of the team’s offensive snaps in 2015). He figures to compete with rookie Shon Coleman for time at right tackle, the only open spot on the Browns’ offensive line.

On defense, the Browns managed to land linebacker Demario Davis, who had spent the entirety of his career with the Jets. Davis, who started all 48 games during the past three seasons with New York, will take over at inside linebacker for Karlos Dansby, who was released. The decision to go forward with Davis over Dansby must have come down to age alone — Davis is 27, Dansby is 34 — as Dansby is clearly the superior player and would have actually been a little bit cheaper in 2016. Dansby is regarded as a solid locker room presence, and given that neither linebacker will be in his prime the next time Cleveland is in contention, it was surprising to see the club make the swap.

In the secondary, veteran Rahim Moore will fill the void at safety left when Tashaun Gipson departed for Jacksonville in free agency. As Roster Resource shows, Moore isn’t locked into a starting job, as he’ll have to compete with Jordan Poyer — who played roughly 40% of Cleveland’s defensive snaps last year — for time at free safety. Although Moore bombed with the Texans after inking a three-year pact (he was benched by November), he was a full-time starter for the Broncos from 2012-2014, so he isn’t lacking in experience.

The Browns also invested resources in two linebackers, Tank Carder and Justin Tuggle, who are primarily special teams players. Carder, for his part, played on more than 80% of Cleveland’s special teams snaps in 2015, and was rewarded for his efforts with a $300K guarantee. The Browns ranked in the middle of the pack in special teams DVOA last year, so perhaps that’s an area of the game where they feel they can show marked improvement on the cheap.

Clearly, the Browns didn’t see much use in using their ample cap space during this free agent period. Rather, the club will continue to carry that cap room over to future seasons, allowing them to spend more freely when they enter a period of contention. It’s a solid strategy, and one that will only help Cleveland in the long run, as there’s little reason for the team to sign a few more veterans in order to improve from, say, three wins to five wins in 2016.

Continue reading about the Browns’ offseason…

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Checking In On The Vikings’ Offensive Line

The Vikings’ 2015 offensive line was, in a word, lackluster. Minnesota gave up 45 sacks, eighth-most in the league, and ranked 29th in adjusted sack rate. The unit was more successful in the run game, earning the No. 10 spot in Football Outsiders’ rankings — but even FO admits that its offensive line metrics are heavily influenced by the quality of the team’s running back, and Adrian Peterson certainly gave his front five a leg up.Joe Berger (Vertical)

[RELATED: Minnesota Vikings depth chart]

But that poor overall performance overlooks the fact that the Vikings had several surprising contributors among their top five lineman. Mike Harris, thrust into a starting role for the first time in his career, played exceptionally well, helping lock down the right side while seeing action at guard after primarily playing tackle in past seasons. Joe Berger, a 34-year-old reserve who had started more than 10 games only once in his career, was even better, grading out as the second-best center in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

Neither Harris nor Berger is projected to enter the upcoming season as a starter, however, as Minnesota’s line will undergo a series of changes. Berger is likely to be usurped by John Sullivan, who missed the entire 2015 campaign after undergoing a lumbar microdiscectomy. Sullivan, 30, was a full-time starter for the Vikings from 2009-14, and was consistently viewed as one of the elite pivots in the league, ranking eighth in approximate value during that period.

Harris, meanwhile, will head back to the bench as Brandon Fusco moves from left to right guard, paving the way for free agent signee Alex Boone to take over on the left side. Fusco wasn’t very effective last year, but he’s been much more productive at right guard during his NFL stint, so perhaps the move back will do him good. Boone, meanwhile, is locked in as a starter after inking a four-year, $26.8MM deal in the offseason.

The Vikings didn’t stop after adding Boone, though, and subsequently signed former Bengals tackle Andre Smith to a one-year pact. Minnesota now ranks first in offensive line spending among all NFL clubs, ahead of other team such as the Raiders, Eagles, and Dolphins. Here’s a look at the top names on the Vikes’ offensive line depth chart, sorted by 2016 cap figure:

Vikings OL

So with Boone, Sullivan, and Fusco manning the interior — and fending off competition from Berger and/or Harris — our attention turns to the outside, which is perhaps the most interesting subset of Minnesota’s offensive line. Matt Kalil‘s struggles have been well-documented, and he’s never returned to the heights he exhibited during his rookie season. The Vikings somewhat surprisingly exercised his 2016 fifth-year option, and his $11.096MM base salary for this year is now guaranteed.Phil Loadholdt (Vertical)

At right tackle, Smith, who is protected by a $1MM guarantee, will compete with longtime Viking Phil Loadholt. The 30-year-old Loadholt has been an elite option on the right side when healthy, but he missed the tail of end of the 2014 campaign with a torn pectoral, and was sidelined for the entire 2015 season after tearing his Achilles. As such, many observers — including Ben Goessling of ESPN.com — have given the edge to Smith in this position battle.

Loadholt reworked his contract earlier this year, reducing his base salary to $2MM while not adding any guarantees, in the hopes of “betting on himself.” There’s likely only room for either Loadholt or Smith on the roster, as neither offers much versatility, and given that Smith has that $1MM guarantee in his back pocket, he is likely the favorite. Loadholt and his camp, however, expect him to venture into a strong market if he does enter free agency, a source tells PFR (Twitter link).

The makeup of this offensive line could realistically go any number of ways over the next few months, and how the front five shakes out could have free agent implications. If Berger mounts an attempt to hold onto the starting center position, is it possible Sullivan is released, especially given that he has no guaranteed money remaining and very little in the way of a prorated bonus? Or could the Vikings decide to go with Harris/Berger at right guard and clear out Fusco’s $3MM+ base salary?

We haven’t even discussed how the Vikings’ front five might change after 2016, when much of the offensive line is projected to hit free agency — but that’s a topic for another day. Suffice it to say: a solid player is going to emerge from this group and hit the free agent market at some point before September, and although Loadholt looks like he’ll be the odd man out, other scenarios could certainly come into play.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extra Points: Vandervelde, T. Jackson, Rosen

Free agent offensive lineman Julian Vandervelde has generated interest from three NFL teams, a source tells PFR (Twitter link). The 28-year-old Vandervelde has spent the duration of his career with the Eagles, but he’s bounced on-and-off the active roster, appearing in just 17 games over five seasons. In 2015 alone, Vandervelde, who can play both guard and center, had three separate stints with Philadelphia. The former Iowa Hawkeye also had a workout with the Seahawks earlier this year.

Let’s take a look at a few more items from around the league:

  • Former Seahawks quarterback Tarvaris Jackson has pleaded not guilty to aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, according to a report from TMZ Sports. Jackson was arrested last week for allegedly pointing a gun at his wife and threatening to kill her — he reportedly asked for a public defender because he didn’t have the funds to pay for a lawyer. Seattle has apparently moved on, as the club tried to claim Connor Shaw off waivers from the Browns and is still in the process of finding a No. 2 quarterback.
  • Looking (far) ahead to the 2018 draft, UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen is expected to be one of the first players off the board, and NFL clubs are already looking into him, reports Albert Breer of NFL.com. While Bruins head coach Jim Mora Jr. is unsurprisingly a major supporter of Rosen (“His potential is unlimited”), some NFL scouts think that Rosen might need to exhibit more maturity over the next two years.
  • Franchise-tagged players have until July 15 to agree to long-term deals with their respective clubs, leading Mark Maske of the Washington Post to placed odds on the likelihood that on Von Miller, Kirk Cousins, and Muhammad Wilkerson will ink new contracts in the next week or so. PFR’s Sam Robinson posed a similar question last night, asking PFR readers which of the franchisees would sign new pacts with their teams before next Thursday.
  • As anyone who was watching Amazon’s All or Nothing witnessed, the Cardinals cut defensive end Lawrence Okoye last season after he parked in the wrong parking spot (link via Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com). Of course, had Okoye been a more high-profile player, the parking issue likely would gone unpunished — instead, the incident was used by head coach Bruce Arians as a way to teach his players to become detail-oriented.

8 Teams That Could Sign Donte Whitner

Veteran safety Donte Whitner wasn’t happy with the timing of his release from the Browns earlier this year, and he had every right to be upset. After Rodney McLeod, George Iloka, Eric Weddle, Tashaun Gipson, and a cadre of other safeties had already scored large contracts on the open market, Whitner hit free agency about three weeks after many clubs had already spent their free agent money. As such, Whitner will likely have to settle for a one-year deal in the coming weeks.Donte Whitner (Veritcal)

But Whitner, who will turn 31 years old later this month, is still a talented player, having graded as the league’s No. 24 safety among 89 qualifiers in 2015, per Pro Football Focus. He’s also remarkably durable, as he’s missed only three games over the past six seasons. As such, PFR recently ranked Whitner as the No. 1 free agent available on the defensive side of the ball, ahead of other players such as Leon Hall, Greg Hardy, and Dwight Freeney.

Let’s take a look at some potential landing spots for Whitner as he looks to ink a contract before (or during) training camp…

Carolina Panthers — Former fourth-round pick Tre Boston spent the first two years of his career as a special teams stalwart, biding his time behind Roman Harper while waiting for a starting opportunity. That time has come, but will Ron Rivera and the rest of Carolina’s coaching staff feel comfortable relying on Boston, who has just six starts to his name and has only averaged about 28% playing time over the past two seasons? After rescinding Josh Norman‘s franchise tag, the Panthers will have enough questions at cornerback without having to worry about their safety group, too. Adding Whitner to play opposite Kurt Coleman could help alleviate any concerns the club might have.

Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys defense has taken its share of hits this offseason, with Rolando McClain, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Randy Gregory all facing multi-game suspensions. Dallas’ secondary has remained untouched, but second-year safety Byron Jones is the only above-average option projected to start in the club’s defensive backfield. Strong safety Barry Church has never been special, and the Cowboys didn’t select a safety in the draft until the sixth round (Central Michigan’s Kavon Frazier). If Tony Romo can stay healthy during the upcoming season, Dallas should return to contention in the NFC East, and Whitner could be the final piece of the puzzle on defense.

Detroit Lions — Lions general manager Bob Quinn has been adamant that his club will field a wide-open competition at strong safety, but the latest reports indicate the former Saint Rafael Bush holds the upper hand over fellow free agent signee Tavon Wilson and fourth-round rookie Miles Killebrew. Bush, though, hasn’t been able to stay healthy during his five-year NFL career. The 29-year-old ended the 2014 season on injured reserve with a broken leg, and missed all but one game last year after tearing a pectoral muscle. Wilson, meanwhile, never started a single contest for the Patriots despite being a former second-round pick, and played just 83 defensive snaps in 2015. All in all, it’s an unproven and untrustworthy group, and Whitner could represent a more sure thing.

Houston Texans — The Texans boasted one of the NFL’s best defensive units in 2015, so they don’t need to add a free agent like Whitner. Houston already had a poor encounter with a veteran free agent safety last season, as Rahim Moore was benched in early November before being released just one season into a three-year deal. But that experience shouldn’t scare the Texans off, as Whitner could add a hard-hitting force to a safety crop that possesses quantity, but perhaps not quality. Andre Hal looks like the club’s starter at free safety, but strong safety could be a toss-up between Eddie Pleasant, Quintin Demps, Antonio Allen, and rookie Kris Dillon. Whitner, for all his faults, looks to be an improvement over any of those options.

Jacksonville Jaguars — The Jaguars are going all-in on the 2016 season, and they spent the majority of their offseason upgrading their defense. After handing big-money deals to defensive lineman Malik Jackson and safety Tashaun Gipson, general manager Dave Caldwell spent all but one of his draft picks on defenders, using his first two to pluck cornerback Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack. But after allocating all that capital, strong safety is still a weak spot on the Jags’ roster, as former second-round pick Johnathan Cyprien graded out as a bottom-three safety last year, according to PFF. As such, Cyprien is reportedly in danger of losing his job to James Sample, but perhaps Jacksonville would prefer a more stable veteran. And not for nothing, Whitner has working experience with Gipson, as the pair spent the past two seasons together in Cleveland.

Kansas City Chiefs — Even after losing one safety to free agency (Tyvon Branch) and another to retirement (Husain Abdullah), the Chiefs are still pretty well-stocked at the position. All Pro Eric Berry, the club’s franchise tag designee, will hold down one spot, while Ron Parker will man the other. But with Parker taking on so many other roles in Kansas City’s defense, including nickel corner, Whitner could make for a strong depth addition. It wouldn’t be a perfect match, however, as Berry does his best work close to the line of scrimmage — the same area that Whitner regularly patrols. The Chiefs are going to mess with Berry’s role to accommodate someone like Whitner, so the latter might have to be open to a reserve role.

Los Angeles Rams — The Rams are perhaps the most obvious fit on this list, especially given that they’re the only club with which Whitner has had a known visit. Whitner met with Los Angeles in the beginning of April, and though reports have indicated that he remains “in play” for general manager Les Snead & Co., the Rams might be cooling in their pursuit of veteran safeties. LA’s search for secondary help — which, in addition to Whitner, has involved fellow free agent Dashon Goldson — could be limited by the team’s desire to see how its younger options, such as Maurice Alexander, Cody Davis, and Christian Bryant, play out before adding a more experienced player. The Rams’ only safety with more than five career starts under his belt is T.J. McDonald, who could possibly be facing a suspension after being arrested for DUI earlier this year.

San Diego Chargers — San Diego has already replaced franchise legend Eric Weddle, agreeing to a deal with former Colt Dwight Lowery over the offseason. But strong safety remains a weakness — in his first season as a full-time starter, Jahleel Addae was below-average, ranking as the No. 76 safety in the league, per PFF. The Chargers ranked 25th in defensive DVOA last season, and were even worse specifically against the run, where they placed 31st. Whitner would help in that regard, assisting the front seven in rush defense while Lowery covers the back end. San Diego did assign Addae the second-round restricted free agent tender, so the club clearly values him, but none of his $2.553MM salary is guaranteed, so if the Chargers wanted to go in another direction, they could easily get out of that contract.

Others — Given that former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is now with the Bears, I initially pegged Chicago as a good fit for Whitner, given that the pair enjoyed success together in the Bay Area from 2011-13. However, the Bears selected two safeties in this year’s draft, and as Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune has written on multiple occasions, Chicago would like to see how those younger options play out, and is quite pleased with 2015 rookie Adrian Amos at strong safety.

The Ravens also struck me as a potential landing spot for Whitner, given that general manager Ozzie Newsome has a history of squeezing every last drop out of veteran free agents. But Baltimore already spent money on Eric Weddle this offseason, and even after offloading the troubled Will Hill, the club still boasts cornerback convert Lardarius Webb, former first-round pick Matt Elam, and Kendrick Lewis at safety, so it’s not exactly a position of need. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com noted that the Ravens have long been fans of Whitner, but allowed that a signing was unlikely.

Finally, the Vikings are known to be looking for the perfect complement to Pro Bowler Harrison Smith, and even after inking Andrew Sendejo to a four-year deal and signing free agent Michael Griffin, the club still doesn’t sound confident with its options at strong safety. Whitner, then, would seem to be a potential fit, but as Ben Goessling of ESPN.com wrote last month, Minnesota is probably looking for a player who can handle pass coverage responsibilities given how often the team moves Smith around the formation. Whitner is not that guy, so perhaps the Vikes aren’t quite a perfect landing spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Tailgate: Franchise Tag Deadline

Varying degrees of uncertainty engulf seven players as July begins, with their respective teams having placed their franchise tags on them. With the deadline for these talents to reach long-term deals with their organizations looming on July 15, multiple members of this contingent likely will not agree to a long-term accord with their respective team.

Here’s how the franchise-tagged club looks as of July 4:

Franchise players (exclusive):

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

Cordy Glenn‘s Bills extension and the Panthers rescinding Josh Norman‘s tag removed two players from the group, but several should remain unsigned by next Friday. With teams having until 3 p.m. CT that day to finalize these agreements, there’s a decent chance multiple tagged performers will play this season on one-year deals. 

Of this septet, Eric Berry and Justin Tucker seem most likely to sign contracts with the Chiefs and Ravens, respectively. We’ve heard no acrimony coming from either side in these negotiations, pointing to Baltimore and Kansas City being in good positions to find common ground and secure the rights for the remainder of their tagged cogs’ primes.

But elsewhere, it hasn’t been so smooth. The Broncos have tagged three players — Matt Prater, Ryan Clady and Demaryius Thomas — since John Elway began functioning as the team’s top personnel executive, and they signed each to long-term deals. But Miller’s standoff with the Broncos has surpassed those impasses.

The nature of the deal the linebacker’s seeking, one that would make him the highest-paid defender in league history, was already going to complicate this. But after Miller turned down Denver’s six-year, $114.5MM proposal over money guaranteed at signing, the Broncos rescinded the offer (technically), and Miller vowed not to play the season on the exclusive tag. We could soon learn how serious he is about holding out.

Jeffery, Johnson and Cousins may reside in the same boat, with their respective teams possibly angling to see how they fare this season before being certain of their statuses as cornerstones, respectively.

Ascending into the Bears‘ No. 1 receiver role after Brandon Marshall‘s third career trade, Jeffery couldn’t display the form he showed as an overqualified No. 2 after he missed seven games due to multiple leg injuries. We heard in early June the sides expected the fifth-year receiver to play 2016 on the tag and reassess after the season, but a few weeks later, the bridge to a Jeffery long-term Bears pact doesn’t appear as long as previously thought. The team still has some obvious reservations on whether or not Jeffery’s body can hold up before giving him a $15MM+ AAV deal in line with A.J. Green or Dez Bryant, however.

Not as much has surfaced on Johnson, but news emerged last month the Rams cornerback may view Janoris Jenkins‘ $12.5MM-AAV deal with the Giants as a floor. The fallout from that rumor pointed to the sides not being close enough to agree on a sufficient offer that would keep the breakout corner on the Rams’ books for a while.

In a market that overpays quarterbacks and keeps them away from free agency, Kirk Cousins doesn’t look to be going anywhere else anytime soon. But the talks between the fifth-year passer and the Redskins aren’t progressing just yet. Of course, that could turn by next Friday, with the market for franchise quarterbacks being essentially set. Cousins, whom Washington wants to see perform again after his strong stretch run put him in this spot, would receive approximately $44MM if given the tag again in 2017.

Wilkerson’s prospects of a Jets contract remain slim. The perpetually disgruntled 2011 first-rounder has been angling for a commitment from Gang Green for over two years, threatening a holdout last season before reporting and playing on his fifth-year option. Fletcher Cox‘s extension looks like it will serve as the sixth-year 3-4 end’s floor in terms of asking price, at least in the mind of Wilkerson, who has made the same number of Pro Bowls (one) as the Eagles standout. But Wilkerson’s notched 33.5 sacks since 2012 compared to Cox’s 22.

However, the Jets’ deep defensive end stable, scant cap room and the lack of a starting-caliber quarterback on the payroll make this a dicey proposition, given their history with Wilkerson. The subject of trade speculation for months, Wilkerson would earn a projected $18.8MM if tagged again in 2017.

So, how many among this contingent will play 2016 under the terms of the franchise tag? Which has the best chance to play elsewhere in 2017? Who has the biggest gripe if they don’t see an acceptable long-term offer by next week? Which isn’t worth a long-term deal right now? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 6/26/16 – 7/3/16

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • In the first installment of PFR’s Offseason in Review series, Dallas examined how the Cincinnati Bengals responded after their stunning playoff exit. Noting the team did not intend to bring back both safeties, Dallas points out that George Iloka‘s status makes the back-line defender incredibly likely to play out his second Bengals contract and examines why Cincinnati handled its No. 2 wide receiver spot the way it did. He also categorized the Giovani Bernard extension as a prescient move by the running back.
  • Connor then continued the 2016 series with the Bills, who re-signed two offensive linemen in Richie Incognito and Cordy Glenn but did not make many splashes in acquiring outside talent. Tabbing Reggie Ragland as the David Harris-type linebacker Rex Ryan lacked in 2015, Connor also notes that GM Doug Whaley‘s extension doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be around for the Bills‘ 2017 campaign if the team that owns the NFL’s longest playoff drought takes a step backward.
  • We kicked off our Impact Rookies series by profiling three AFC South franchises. The Texans went offense with their first four selections, and Dave-Te Thomas examined how that will aid the defending division champions in their quest to advance in the postseason.
  • The Jaguars selected two players who were thought to be top-five prospects in Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. Thomas said the Jaguars sprinted to the podium in both instances, with Jack, if healthy, profiling as an impact candidate for Jacksonville on the strong side.
  • The Titans traded out of the No. 1 spot and selected Jack Conklin, whom Thomas pencils in as Tennessee’s immediate right tackle option, before adding Derrick Henry in Round 2. Although, Henry faces a less-certain situation as a rookie.
  • Dallas asked readers in our Community Tailgate section which player will sign the first $25MM-AAV contract after Andrew Luck‘s Colts extension left him short of that threshold. He mentions quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees among those that could accomplish this, with each potentially being drawn to a shorter contract.
  • Dwight Freeney intends to play in a 15th season, and Dallas looked at the top 10 teams that would be the best fits for the former All-Pro pass-rusher. In addition to the Cardinals, with whom Freeney’s said he’d prefer a reunion, Dallas mentioned the Chiefs and Cowboys as possible landing spots considering their depleted situations outside.
  • Nick Foles will almost certainly not be with the Rams for a second season, and Dallas zeroes in on seven teams that loom as potential trade partners for Los Angeles. Along with teams that don’t have much behind their starters like the Seahawks and Cowboys, Dallas notes teams like the Chiefs and Jets — who each boast multiple late-round fliers behind their current starters — as options to trade for Foles.
  • Ben rounded up the best of the football blogs in his latest edition of Pigskin Links.

Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

After finishing 8-8 in 2015 and extending their NFL-worst playoff drought to an absurd 16 years, a dearth of cap space prevented the Bills from acquiring significant veteran upgrades during the offseason. The club instead had to use the bulk of its spending room to re-sign its two best offensive linemen, leaving it to go the draft route to supplement a defense that was surprisingly underwhelming last season.

Notable signings:

The Bills’ offense improved across the board last season after a dismal 2014 performance, going from 18th in the NFL in points to 13th, 26th in yardage to 12th and 26th in DVOA to ninth. That was thanks largely to the unexpectedly effective play of dual-threat quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the additions of running backs LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee, and the hiring of coordinator Greg Roman to replace Nathaniel Hackett. But Taylor and the backs wouldn’t have helped the unit take such a sizable leap forward without the work done by the offensive line’s left side, where tackle Cordy Glenn and guard Richie Incognito started all 16 games and thrived.

Cordy Glenn (vertical)

Glenn ranked as Pro Football Focus’ (subscription required) 10th-best tackle among 77 qualifiers, while the site gave Incognito a better mark than every left guard in the league. Glenn’s strength was in pass blocking, in which he graded as PFF’s fifth-best tackle. Incognito, on the other hand, was top seven among all guards in both pass and run blocking. His efforts in the latter category enabled the Bills’ ground attack to finish first in the league, and the team’s rushers averaged an incredible 6.58 yards per carry when they ran behind the left guard (per ESPN’s Mike Rodak). The only negative to glean from the excellence of Glenn and Incognito is that the Bills had to award the pair appreciable raises to keep them in the fold.

After the Bills initially slapped the franchise tag on Glenn to stop him from testing free agency, he inked a five-year, $60MM pact with the club that features $26MM in guarantees. Glenn – whom the Bills selected out of Georgia in the second round of the 2012 draft – parlayed his consistently stellar blocking and durability (61 appearances and starts in 64 regular-season games) into a deal that ranks fifth among left tackles in total value, fourth in yearly average and second in guarantees.

Richie Incognito

Incognito is six years older than Glenn (32 to 26) and plays a position of less prestige, so the Bills didn’t have to surrender nearly as much cash to retain him. Nonetheless, he procured a notable payday after settling for a prove-it deal the prior offseason, recovering from a 2013 bullying scandal in Miami to haul in $15.75MM and $5.45MM in guarantees over three years. Incognito, who made his second Pro Bowl last season, is now eighth among left guards in average annual value and 10th in guarantees. In the event Incognito declines as he climbs toward his mid-30s, his accord is easy to escape after the 2017 season, when Buffalo will save $6.43MM in cap space and take on just $1.15MM in dead money if it releases him.

Locking up both Glenn and Incognito was a must for the Bills, but it left them without the spending room necessary to make even medium-sized splashes elsewhere. That led them to scan free agency for bargain bin pickups like linebacker Zach Brown, cornerback Sterling Moore and receiver Leonard Hankerson, who first joined the Bills last December before signing with the team again in March.

Considering his production in Tennessee, where he piled up 261 tackles, 10 sacks, six interceptions and two forced fumbles in 49 appearances (33 starts) from 2012-15, it was surprising that the best Brown could do was a one-year, $1.25MM deal. After appearing in 46.6 percent of the Titans’ defensive snaps in 2015 and ranking an impressive 30th among 97 qualifying linebackers at PFF, Brown should at least provide the Bills with useful depth. Buffalo is projected to rely heavily on two younger LBs, second-round rookie Reggie Ragland and third-year man Preston Brown. The latter followed a terrific rookie campaign with a disappointing showing in 2015, though new assistant head coach/defense Rob Ryan heaped praise on him earlier this month.

“This Preston Brown is going to be a star,” said Ryan, who comes from a family known for making bold declarations.

If Preston Brown doesn’t meet Ryan’s expectations this year, at least the Bills have Zach Brown in the equation as a fallback option.

Moore, meanwhile, started in nine of 16 appearances with the Buccaneers last season and led their corners in defensive snap percentage (64.9) and pass breakups (six), and added three forced fumbles and a pick. He now has an opportunity to replace the departed Leodis McKelvin as the Bills’ top corner option behind stalwarts Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby.

Hankerson, 27, could catch on in a Bills receiving corps that lacks starting-caliber targets aside from injured star Sammy Watkins – whose status for training camp is uncertain because of a minor foot fracture – and fourth-year man Robert Woods. Over 34 games dating back to 2012, Hankerson has amassed 94 catches on 150 targets, averaged 13.2 yards per reception and posted nine touchdowns. Those aren’t great numbers – and it’s important to note that both the Falcons and Patriots waived Hankerson last season – but they’re enough to rank behind only Watkins, Woods and January reserve/futures signing Greg Little on Buffalo’s roster. With Percy Harvin having retired and Chris Hogan having joined the Pats in free agency, the Bills will need someone to serve as a respectable complement to Watkins and Woods, and either Hankerson or Little might have the most realistic shot.

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Community Tailgate: First $25MM Player?

Though the period between the end of OTAs and the beginning of training camp is usually relatively quiet — at least, by NFL standards — one of the bigger stories of the past calendar year broke yesterday, as quarterback Andrew Luck agreed to an extension with the Colts that will lock him up through the 2021 season. The details of the pact show that Luck will be extremely well-paid, as he’ll average $24.594MM over the life of the deal; he also received a hefty $47MM in full guarantees and $87MM in injury guarantees.Andrew Luck

But despite those figures, some observers have noted that the contract is a little underwhelming. Luck will be the highest-paid player in the league on an annual basis, but he didn’t set a new record for guarantees. Ndamukong Suh still holds that mark after scoring $60MM fully guaranteed from the Dolphins last season, while Aaron Rodgers is tops among quarterbacks, at $54MM.

Additionally, Luck didn’t break the $25MM per year barrier. Now, that distinction could seem inconsequential — Luck came close, and he’s only $406K per year short. But most expected him to shatter that mark, and the fact that he came up a little light was somewhat surprising. Perhaps it’s simply that fact that we like round numbers, but that $25MM figure seems like the next annual salary that players — more specifically, quarterbacks — will look to attain.

So which signal-caller will be the one to crash through that ceiling? Just this morning, former agent and current CBS Sports contributor Joel Corry argued that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford could be the most logical candidate, given that he’s posted comparable statistics to Luck and only has a couple years left on his deal. From my vantage point, Stafford does look like he could reach the $25MM mark because he could opt for a contract with a short length, as he did last time around when he agreed to a three-year extension. Without having to worry about large guarantees on the back end, or a massive signing bonus that could make it untenable to cut Stafford loose down the road, Detroit could be willing to meet $25MM per year.Drew Brees (Vertical)

What about Drew Brees? Yes, the Saints quarterback will be 38 years old when free agency begins next year, but he’s showed no signs of slowing down, and plenty of teams would back up the Brinks truck to lure him in. Kirk Cousins, too, could be a free agent in 2017 if the Redskins don’t use the franchise tag again. Clearly, Cousins isn’t in the same class as Brees, but with the quarterback scarcity around the league, even a merely above-average talent like Cousins can cash in. Rodgers, meanwhile, is signed through the 2019 season, but the Packers could be open to reworking his deal in order to make him the highest-paid QB in the NFL.

It’s always possible that we’ll have to wait until the current crop of young quarterbacks hits free agency before someone cracks the $25MM mark. Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota have all had varying levels of success at the NFL level, and none can even sign an extension yet, but if one of those three truly breaks out in the next few years, they could be looking at a record-breaking deal. Further down the line, rookies such as Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Paxton Lynch could be in line for hefty contracts, but it won’t probably won’t take until 2018-19 until someone tops $25MM.

A non-quarterback theoretically could cross over the $25MM line, but Suh currently leads all defenders at around $19MM per year, so there’s a long way to go before someone on the defensive side of the ball redefines contracts to that level. Wide receivers, meanwhile, are currently topping out at $15MM, while offensive lineman haven’t even hit $14MM. J.J. Watt, perhaps, could have gotten to $25MM had he hit free agency, but it’s probably going to be a quarterback.

So who will it be? Will Brees hit free agency next year and stun the market with a record-breaking deal? Will a surprising option like Stafford hit $25MM first? Will Rodgers renegotiate his deal? Or will we have to wait for a younger quarterback to sign an extension? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.