HEADLINES

PFR Originals News & Rumors

8 Teams That Could Sign Donte Whitner

July 5th, 2016 at 5:39pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Veteran safety Donte Whitner wasn’t happy with the timing of his release from the Browns earlier this year, and he had every right to be upset. After Rodney McLeod, George Iloka, Eric Weddle, Tashaun Gipson, and a cadre of other safeties had already scored large contracts on the open market, Whitner hit free agency about three weeks after many clubs had already spent their free agent money. As such, Whitner will likely have to settle for a one-year deal in the coming weeks.Donte Whitner (Veritcal)

But Whitner, who will turn 31 years old later this month, is still a talented player, having graded as the league’s No. 24 safety among 89 qualifiers in 2015, per Pro Football Focus. He’s also remarkably durable, as he’s missed only three games over the past six seasons. As such, PFR recently ranked Whitner as the No. 1 free agent available on the defensive side of the ball, ahead of other players such as Leon Hall, Greg Hardy, and Dwight Freeney.

Let’s take a look at some potential landing spots for Whitner as he looks to ink a contract before (or during) training camp…

Carolina Panthers — Former fourth-round pick Tre Boston spent the first two years of his career as a special teams stalwart, biding his time behind Roman Harper while waiting for a starting opportunity. That time has come, but will Ron Rivera and the rest of Carolina’s coaching staff feel comfortable relying on Boston, who has just six starts to his name and has only averaged about 28% playing time over the past two seasons? After rescinding Josh Norman‘s franchise tag, the Panthers will have enough questions at cornerback without having to worry about their safety group, too. Adding Whitner to play opposite Kurt Coleman could help alleviate any concerns the club might have.

Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys defense has taken its share of hits this offseason, with Rolando McClain, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Randy Gregory all facing multi-game suspensions. Dallas’ secondary has remained untouched, but second-year safety Byron Jones is the only above-average option projected to start in the club’s defensive backfield. Strong safety Barry Church has never been special, and the Cowboys didn’t select a safety in the draft until the sixth round (Central Michigan’s Kavon Frazier). If Tony Romo can stay healthy during the upcoming season, Dallas should return to contention in the NFC East, and Whitner could be the final piece of the puzzle on defense.

Detroit Lions — Lions general manager Bob Quinn has been adamant that his club will field a wide-open competition at strong safety, but the latest reports indicate the former Saint Rafael Bush holds the upper hand over fellow free agent signee Tavon Wilson and fourth-round rookie Miles Killebrew. Bush, though, hasn’t been able to stay healthy during his five-year NFL career. The 29-year-old ended the 2014 season on injured reserve with a broken leg, and missed all but one game last year after tearing a pectoral muscle. Wilson, meanwhile, never started a single contest for the Patriots despite being a former second-round pick, and played just 83 defensive snaps in 2015. All in all, it’s an unproven and untrustworthy group, and Whitner could represent a more sure thing.

Houston Texans — The Texans boasted one of the NFL’s best defensive units in 2015, so they don’t need to add a free agent like Whitner. Houston already had a poor encounter with a veteran free agent safety last season, as Rahim Moore was benched in early November before being released just one season into a three-year deal. But that experience shouldn’t scare the Texans off, as Whitner could add a hard-hitting force to a safety crop that possesses quantity, but perhaps not quality. Andre Hal looks like the club’s starter at free safety, but strong safety could be a toss-up between Eddie Pleasant, Quintin Demps, Antonio Allen, and rookie Kris Dillon. Whitner, for all his faults, looks to be an improvement over any of those options.

Jacksonville Jaguars — The Jaguars are going all-in on the 2016 season, and they spent the majority of their offseason upgrading their defense. After handing big-money deals to defensive lineman Malik Jackson and safety Tashaun Gipson, general manager Dave Caldwell spent all but one of his draft picks on defenders, using his first two to pluck cornerback Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack. But after allocating all that capital, strong safety is still a weak spot on the Jags’ roster, as former second-round pick Johnathan Cyprien graded out as a bottom-three safety last year, according to PFF. As such, Cyprien is reportedly in danger of losing his job to James Sample, but perhaps Jacksonville would prefer a more stable veteran. And not for nothing, Whitner has working experience with Gipson, as the pair spent the past two seasons together in Cleveland.

Kansas City Chiefs — Even after losing one safety to free agency (Tyvon Branch) and another to retirement (Husain Abdullah), the Chiefs are still pretty well-stocked at the position. All Pro Eric Berry, the club’s franchise tag designee, will hold down one spot, while Ron Parker will man the other. But with Parker taking on so many other roles in Kansas City’s defense, including nickel corner, Whitner could make for a strong depth addition. It wouldn’t be a perfect match, however, as Berry does his best work close to the line of scrimmage — the same area that Whitner regularly patrols. The Chiefs are going to mess with Berry’s role to accommodate someone like Whitner, so the latter might have to be open to a reserve role.

Los Angeles Rams — The Rams are perhaps the most obvious fit on this list, especially given that they’re the only club with which Whitner has had a known visit. Whitner met with Los Angeles in the beginning of April, and though reports have indicated that he remains “in play” for general manager Les Snead & Co., the Rams might be cooling in their pursuit of veteran safeties. LA’s search for secondary help — which, in addition to Whitner, has involved fellow free agent Dashon Goldson — could be limited by the team’s desire to see how its younger options, such as Maurice Alexander, Cody Davis, and Christian Bryant, play out before adding a more experienced player. The Rams’ only safety with more than five career starts under his belt is T.J. McDonald, who could possibly be facing a suspension after being arrested for DUI earlier this year.

San Diego Chargers — San Diego has already replaced franchise legend Eric Weddle, agreeing to a deal with former Colt Dwight Lowery over the offseason. But strong safety remains a weakness — in his first season as a full-time starter, Jahleel Addae was below-average, ranking as the No. 76 safety in the league, per PFF. The Chargers ranked 25th in defensive DVOA last season, and were even worse specifically against the run, where they placed 31st. Whitner would help in that regard, assisting the front seven in rush defense while Lowery covers the back end. San Diego did assign Addae the second-round restricted free agent tender, so the club clearly values him, but none of his $2.553MM salary is guaranteed, so if the Chargers wanted to go in another direction, they could easily get out of that contract.

Others — Given that former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is now with the Bears, I initially pegged Chicago as a good fit for Whitner, given that the pair enjoyed success together in the Bay Area from 2011-13. However, the Bears selected two safeties in this year’s draft, and as Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune has written on multiple occasions, Chicago would like to see how those younger options play out, and is quite pleased with 2015 rookie Adrian Amos at strong safety.

The Ravens also struck me as a potential landing spot for Whitner, given that general manager Ozzie Newsome has a history of squeezing every last drop out of veteran free agents. But Baltimore already spent money on Eric Weddle this offseason, and even after offloading the troubled Will Hill, the club still boasts cornerback convert Lardarius Webb, former first-round pick Matt Elam, and Kendrick Lewis at safety, so it’s not exactly a position of need. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com noted that the Ravens have long been fans of Whitner, but allowed that a signing was unlikely.

Finally, the Vikings are known to be looking for the perfect complement to Pro Bowler Harrison Smith, and even after inking Andrew Sendejo to a four-year deal and signing free agent Michael Griffin, the club still doesn’t sound confident with its options at strong safety. Whitner, then, would seem to be a potential fit, but as Ben Goessling of ESPN.com wrote last month, Minnesota is probably looking for a player who can handle pass coverage responsibilities given how often the team moves Smith around the formation. Whitner is not that guy, so perhaps the Vikes aren’t quite a perfect landing spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Tailgate: Franchise Tag Deadline

July 4th, 2016 at 10:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

Varying degrees of uncertainty engulf seven players as July begins, with their respective teams having placed their franchise tags on them. With the deadline for these talents to reach long-term deals with their organizations looming on July 15, multiple members of this contingent likely will not agree to a long-term accord with their respective team.

Here’s how the franchise-tagged club looks as of July 4:

Franchise players (exclusive):

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

Cordy Glenn‘s Bills extension and the Panthers rescinding Josh Norman‘s tag removed two players from the group, but several should remain unsigned by next Friday. With teams having until 3 p.m. CT that day to finalize these agreements, there’s a decent chance multiple tagged performers will play this season on one-year deals. 

Of this septet, Eric Berry and Justin Tucker seem most likely to sign contracts with the Chiefs and Ravens, respectively. We’ve heard no acrimony coming from either side in these negotiations, pointing to Baltimore and Kansas City being in good positions to find common ground and secure the rights for the remainder of their tagged cogs’ primes.

But elsewhere, it hasn’t been so smooth. The Broncos have tagged three players — Matt Prater, Ryan Clady and Demaryius Thomas — since John Elway began functioning as the team’s top personnel executive, and they signed each to long-term deals. But Miller’s standoff with the Broncos has surpassed those impasses.

The nature of the deal the linebacker’s seeking, one that would make him the highest-paid defender in league history, was already going to complicate this. But after Miller turned down Denver’s six-year, $114.5MM proposal over money guaranteed at signing, the Broncos rescinded the offer (technically), and Miller vowed not to play the season on the exclusive tag. We could soon learn how serious he is about holding out.

Jeffery, Johnson and Cousins may reside in the same boat, with their respective teams possibly angling to see how they fare this season before being certain of their statuses as cornerstones, respectively.

Ascending into the Bears‘ No. 1 receiver role after Brandon Marshall‘s third career trade, Jeffery couldn’t display the form he showed as an overqualified No. 2 after he missed seven games due to multiple leg injuries. We heard in early June the sides expected the fifth-year receiver to play 2016 on the tag and reassess after the season, but a few weeks later, the bridge to a Jeffery long-term Bears pact doesn’t appear as long as previously thought. The team still has some obvious reservations on whether or not Jeffery’s body can hold up before giving him a $15MM+ AAV deal in line with A.J. Green or Dez Bryant, however.

Not as much has surfaced on Johnson, but news emerged last month the Rams cornerback may view Janoris Jenkins‘ $12.5MM-AAV deal with the Giants as a floor. The fallout from that rumor pointed to the sides not being close enough to agree on a sufficient offer that would keep the breakout corner on the Rams’ books for a while.

In a market that overpays quarterbacks and keeps them away from free agency, Kirk Cousins doesn’t look to be going anywhere else anytime soon. But the talks between the fifth-year passer and the Redskins aren’t progressing just yet. Of course, that could turn by next Friday, with the market for franchise quarterbacks being essentially set. Cousins, whom Washington wants to see perform again after his strong stretch run put him in this spot, would receive approximately $44MM if given the tag again in 2017.

Wilkerson’s prospects of a Jets contract remain slim. The perpetually disgruntled 2011 first-rounder has been angling for a commitment from Gang Green for over two years, threatening a holdout last season before reporting and playing on his fifth-year option. Fletcher Cox‘s extension looks like it will serve as the sixth-year 3-4 end’s floor in terms of asking price, at least in the mind of Wilkerson, who has made the same number of Pro Bowls (one) as the Eagles standout. But Wilkerson’s notched 33.5 sacks since 2012 compared to Cox’s 22.

However, the Jets’ deep defensive end stable, scant cap room and the lack of a starting-caliber quarterback on the payroll make this a dicey proposition, given their history with Wilkerson. The subject of trade speculation for months, Wilkerson would earn a projected $18.8MM if tagged again in 2017.

So, how many among this contingent will play 2016 under the terms of the franchise tag? Which has the best chance to play elsewhere in 2017? Who has the biggest gripe if they don’t see an acceptable long-term offer by next week? Which isn’t worth a long-term deal right now? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 6/26/16 – 7/3/16

July 3rd, 2016 at 2:56pm CST by Sam Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • In the first installment of PFR’s Offseason in Review series, Dallas examined how the Cincinnati Bengals responded after their stunning playoff exit. Noting the team did not intend to bring back both safeties, Dallas points out that George Iloka‘s status makes the back-line defender incredibly likely to play out his second Bengals contract and examines why Cincinnati handled its No. 2 wide receiver spot the way it did. He also categorized the Giovani Bernard extension as a prescient move by the running back.
  • Connor then continued the 2016 series with the Bills, who re-signed two offensive linemen in Richie Incognito and Cordy Glenn but did not make many splashes in acquiring outside talent. Tabbing Reggie Ragland as the David Harris-type linebacker Rex Ryan lacked in 2015, Connor also notes that GM Doug Whaley‘s extension doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be around for the Bills‘ 2017 campaign if the team that owns the NFL’s longest playoff drought takes a step backward.
  • We kicked off our Impact Rookies series by profiling three AFC South franchises. The Texans went offense with their first four selections, and Dave-Te Thomas examined how that will aid the defending division champions in their quest to advance in the postseason.
  • The Jaguars selected two players who were thought to be top-five prospects in Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. Thomas said the Jaguars sprinted to the podium in both instances, with Jack, if healthy, profiling as an impact candidate for Jacksonville on the strong side.
  • The Titans traded out of the No. 1 spot and selected Jack Conklin, whom Thomas pencils in as Tennessee’s immediate right tackle option, before adding Derrick Henry in Round 2. Although, Henry faces a less-certain situation as a rookie.
  • Dallas asked readers in our Community Tailgate section which player will sign the first $25MM-AAV contract after Andrew Luck‘s Colts extension left him short of that threshold. He mentions quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees among those that could accomplish this, with each potentially being drawn to a shorter contract.
  • Dwight Freeney intends to play in a 15th season, and Dallas looked at the top 10 teams that would be the best fits for the former All-Pro pass-rusher. In addition to the Cardinals, with whom Freeney’s said he’d prefer a reunion, Dallas mentioned the Chiefs and Cowboys as possible landing spots considering their depleted situations outside.
  • Nick Foles will almost certainly not be with the Rams for a second season, and Dallas zeroes in on seven teams that loom as potential trade partners for Los Angeles. Along with teams that don’t have much behind their starters like the Seahawks and Cowboys, Dallas notes teams like the Chiefs and Jets — who each boast multiple late-round fliers behind their current starters — as options to trade for Foles.
  • Ben rounded up the best of the football blogs in his latest edition of Pigskin Links.

Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

July 1st, 2016 at 5:02pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

After finishing 8-8 in 2015 and extending their NFL-worst playoff drought to an absurd 16 years, a dearth of cap space prevented the Bills from acquiring significant veteran upgrades during the offseason. The club instead had to use the bulk of its spending room to re-sign its two best offensive linemen, leaving it to go the draft route to supplement a defense that was surprisingly underwhelming last season.

Notable signings:

The Bills’ offense improved across the board last season after a dismal 2014 performance, going from 18th in the NFL in points to 13th, 26th in yardage to 12th and 26th in DVOA to ninth. That was thanks largely to the unexpectedly effective play of dual-threat quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the additions of running backs LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee, and the hiring of coordinator Greg Roman to replace Nathaniel Hackett. But Taylor and the backs wouldn’t have helped the unit take such a sizable leap forward without the work done by the offensive line’s left side, where tackle Cordy Glenn and guard Richie Incognito started all 16 games and thrived.

Cordy Glenn (vertical)

Glenn ranked as Pro Football Focus’ (subscription required) 10th-best tackle among 77 qualifiers, while the site gave Incognito a better mark than every left guard in the league. Glenn’s strength was in pass blocking, in which he graded as PFF’s fifth-best tackle. Incognito, on the other hand, was top seven among all guards in both pass and run blocking. His efforts in the latter category enabled the Bills’ ground attack to finish first in the league, and the team’s rushers averaged an incredible 6.58 yards per carry when they ran behind the left guard (per ESPN’s Mike Rodak). The only negative to glean from the excellence of Glenn and Incognito is that the Bills had to award the pair appreciable raises to keep them in the fold.

After the Bills initially slapped the franchise tag on Glenn to stop him from testing free agency, he inked a five-year, $60MM pact with the club that features $26MM in guarantees. Glenn – whom the Bills selected out of Georgia in the second round of the 2012 draft – parlayed his consistently stellar blocking and durability (61 appearances and starts in 64 regular-season games) into a deal that ranks fifth among left tackles in total value, fourth in yearly average and second in guarantees.

Richie Incognito

Incognito is six years older than Glenn (32 to 26) and plays a position of less prestige, so the Bills didn’t have to surrender nearly as much cash to retain him. Nonetheless, he procured a notable payday after settling for a prove-it deal the prior offseason, recovering from a 2013 bullying scandal in Miami to haul in $15.75MM and $5.45MM in guarantees over three years. Incognito, who made his second Pro Bowl last season, is now eighth among left guards in average annual value and 10th in guarantees. In the event Incognito declines as he climbs toward his mid-30s, his accord is easy to escape after the 2017 season, when Buffalo will save $6.43MM in cap space and take on just $1.15MM in dead money if it releases him.

Locking up both Glenn and Incognito was a must for the Bills, but it left them without the spending room necessary to make even medium-sized splashes elsewhere. That led them to scan free agency for bargain bin pickups like linebacker Zach Brown, cornerback Sterling Moore and receiver Leonard Hankerson, who first joined the Bills last December before signing with the team again in March.

Considering his production in Tennessee, where he piled up 261 tackles, 10 sacks, six interceptions and two forced fumbles in 49 appearances (33 starts) from 2012-15, it was surprising that the best Brown could do was a one-year, $1.25MM deal. After appearing in 46.6 percent of the Titans’ defensive snaps in 2015 and ranking an impressive 30th among 97 qualifying linebackers at PFF, Brown should at least provide the Bills with useful depth. Buffalo is projected to rely heavily on two younger LBs, second-round rookie Reggie Ragland and third-year man Preston Brown. The latter followed a terrific rookie campaign with a disappointing showing in 2015, though new assistant head coach/defense Rob Ryan heaped praise on him earlier this month.

“This Preston Brown is going to be a star,” said Ryan, who comes from a family known for making bold declarations.

If Preston Brown doesn’t meet Ryan’s expectations this year, at least the Bills have Zach Brown in the equation as a fallback option.

Moore, meanwhile, started in nine of 16 appearances with the Buccaneers last season and led their corners in defensive snap percentage (64.9) and pass breakups (six), and added three forced fumbles and a pick. He now has an opportunity to replace the departed Leodis McKelvin as the Bills’ top corner option behind stalwarts Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby.

Hankerson, 27, could catch on in a Bills receiving corps that lacks starting-caliber targets aside from injured star Sammy Watkins – whose status for training camp is uncertain because of a minor foot fracture – and fourth-year man Robert Woods. Over 34 games dating back to 2012, Hankerson has amassed 94 catches on 150 targets, averaged 13.2 yards per reception and posted nine touchdowns. Those aren’t great numbers – and it’s important to note that both the Falcons and Patriots waived Hankerson last season – but they’re enough to rank behind only Watkins, Woods and January reserve/futures signing Greg Little on Buffalo’s roster. With Percy Harvin having retired and Chris Hogan having joined the Pats in free agency, the Bills will need someone to serve as a respectable complement to Watkins and Woods, and either Hankerson or Little might have the most realistic shot.

Continue reading about the Bills’ offseason…

Read more

Community Tailgate: First $25MM Player?

June 30th, 2016 at 12:57pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Though the period between the end of OTAs and the beginning of training camp is usually relatively quiet — at least, by NFL standards — one of the bigger stories of the past calendar year broke yesterday, as quarterback Andrew Luck agreed to an extension with the Colts that will lock him up through the 2021 season. The details of the pact show that Luck will be extremely well-paid, as he’ll average $24.594MM over the life of the deal; he also received a hefty $47MM in full guarantees and $87MM in injury guarantees.Andrew Luck

But despite those figures, some observers have noted that the contract is a little underwhelming. Luck will be the highest-paid player in the league on an annual basis, but he didn’t set a new record for guarantees. Ndamukong Suh still holds that mark after scoring $60MM fully guaranteed from the Dolphins last season, while Aaron Rodgers is tops among quarterbacks, at $54MM.

Additionally, Luck didn’t break the $25MM per year barrier. Now, that distinction could seem inconsequential — Luck came close, and he’s only $406K per year short. But most expected him to shatter that mark, and the fact that he came up a little light was somewhat surprising. Perhaps it’s simply that fact that we like round numbers, but that $25MM figure seems like the next annual salary that players — more specifically, quarterbacks — will look to attain.

So which signal-caller will be the one to crash through that ceiling? Just this morning, former agent and current CBS Sports contributor Joel Corry argued that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford could be the most logical candidate, given that he’s posted comparable statistics to Luck and only has a couple years left on his deal. From my vantage point, Stafford does look like he could reach the $25MM mark because he could opt for a contract with a short length, as he did last time around when he agreed to a three-year extension. Without having to worry about large guarantees on the back end, or a massive signing bonus that could make it untenable to cut Stafford loose down the road, Detroit could be willing to meet $25MM per year.Drew Brees (Vertical)

What about Drew Brees? Yes, the Saints quarterback will be 38 years old when free agency begins next year, but he’s showed no signs of slowing down, and plenty of teams would back up the Brinks truck to lure him in. Kirk Cousins, too, could be a free agent in 2017 if the Redskins don’t use the franchise tag again. Clearly, Cousins isn’t in the same class as Brees, but with the quarterback scarcity around the league, even a merely above-average talent like Cousins can cash in. Rodgers, meanwhile, is signed through the 2019 season, but the Packers could be open to reworking his deal in order to make him the highest-paid QB in the NFL.

It’s always possible that we’ll have to wait until the current crop of young quarterbacks hits free agency before someone cracks the $25MM mark. Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota have all had varying levels of success at the NFL level, and none can even sign an extension yet, but if one of those three truly breaks out in the next few years, they could be looking at a record-breaking deal. Further down the line, rookies such as Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Paxton Lynch could be in line for hefty contracts, but it won’t probably won’t take until 2018-19 until someone tops $25MM.

A non-quarterback theoretically could cross over the $25MM line, but Suh currently leads all defenders at around $19MM per year, so there’s a long way to go before someone on the defensive side of the ball redefines contracts to that level. Wide receivers, meanwhile, are currently topping out at $15MM, while offensive lineman haven’t even hit $14MM. J.J. Watt, perhaps, could have gotten to $25MM had he hit free agency, but it’s probably going to be a quarterback.

So who will it be? Will Brees hit free agency next year and stun the market with a record-breaking deal? Will a surprising option like Stafford hit $25MM first? Will Rodgers renegotiate his deal? Or will we have to wait for a younger quarterback to sign an extension? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

June 30th, 2016 at 10:44am CST by Dallas Robinson

The Bengals have a tried and true offseason approach that’s enabled them to reach the postseason for five consecutive seasons — winning a game once they’ve made the playoffs has been a different story, however. Still, the club followed their template: re-sign their own free agents, extend young players that they believe are a part of their core, and bring in a few veterans who won’t affect the compensatory formula. Let’s take a look at how Cincinnati executed that strategy over the offseason…

Notable signings:

While the Bengals weren’t able to retain either one of their key free agent receivers, they did re-sign the two most important members of their secondary, agreeing to new deals with cornerback Adam Jones and safety George Iloka. Jones received the seventh-highest full guarantee among all free agent corners, an unusual accomplishment for a player entering his age-33 season. But Jones doesn’t have wear-and-tear of a typical veteran — in fact, Jones has the started the fewest career games among 2005 draftees who can still be considered starters at this point in their careers, and it isn’t particularly close. For example, Jones has only 77 starts under his belt, while Antrel Rolle, the other defensive back selected in the top eight of the ’05 draft, boasts a whopping 146. Jones, for all intents and purposes, only has about half the tread on his tires of a typical starter with a decade in the NFL, making this deal less onerous that it looks at first glance.

Iloka, meanwhile, can be considered a victory of Cincinnati’s “draft, develop, and retain” model — a former fifth-round pick, Iloka blossomed into a full-time starter during his second year in the league, and graded out as the NFL’s No. 15 safety during his platform season, according to Pro Football Focus. George Iloka (Featured)Still, he didn’t fully cash out during the free agent process, garnering only $5MM in guaranteed money. Rodney McLeod, a comparable player who is the same age as Iloka, got more than double that figure from the Eagles, while Tyvon Branch, a middle-of-the-road veteran nearing age-30, equaled Iloka’s guarantees (and only on a two-year deal!). Iloka is incredibly likely to play out his entire contract — most Bengals do — but even then, he doesn’t rank inside the top-10 in average annual value among safeties, and he’ll continue to be pushed further down that list as the cap increases and salaries rise.

The Bengals did venture away from their internal free agents to bring in a couple of outside additions, but they were sure to only sign players who had been released by their former clubs, ensuring that they wouldn’t sacrifice any precious compensatory selections (Cincinnati is projected to snag four comp picks, the maximum allowed under the system). Wide receiver Brandon LaFell will line up opposite A.J. Green on the outside, and the Bengals are hoping that the former Patriot can come closer to his 2014 numbers — when he caught 74 passes for nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns — than his 2015 production (37 receptions for 515 yards and zero scores). LaFell, 29, should see a good deal of single coverage as defenses shift their focus towards Green, so he’s a decent candidate for a rebound season.

Linebacker Karlos Dansby, another external addition, was signed to supplement Cincinnati’s front seven — on the surface, he’s replacing fellow veteran A.J. Hawk, but Dansby will be counted on to play a much larger role than Hawk, who saw action on just over a quarter of the Bengals’ defensive snaps last season. Not only will Dansby help Karlos Dansbyaccount for the absence of Vontaze Burfict, who is suspended for the first three games of the year, but he’ll stay on the field in sub packages. A starting caliber, three-down linebacker for just $2MM is a solid deal, and Dansby figures to make a sizable contribution to a Cincinnati defense that will seek to match — or better — its 2015 No. 10 DVOA rating.

Elsewhere in the linebacking corps, the Bengals also re-signed Vincent Rey, a former undrafted free agent who’s made his NFL name as something of a jack-of-all-trades ‘backer. Need a direct replacement for Burfict while he’s suspended? Vincent Rey. Who will stay on the field in nickel packages alongside Dansby? Vincent Rey. Special teams unit needs an extra body? Vincent Rey. Rey played the most defensive snaps of any Cincinnati linebacker in 2015, and given that Dansby is aging, Burfict will miss almost 20% of the season, and Rey Maualuga is a two-down run-stuffer, Rey could end up leading the Bengals LBs in playing time once again.

Pat Sims appeared in only eight games in 2015, but the Bengals apparently saw enough during his second tenure with the club that they re-signed him to a two-year deal (though it’s essentially a one-year deal with an option for 2017). The 30-year-old Sims will compete with fourth-round rookie Andrew Billings for playing time as a rotational lineman behind starter Domata Peko. Fellow defensive tackle Brandon Thompson tore his ACL in January, but he still generated interest from the Seahawks before inking a new deal with Cincinnati. The PUP list is clearly an option for Thompson as he recovers, but he could be late-season contributor.

Brandon Tate, Eric Winston, and Taylor Mays are all veterans with experience in the Bengals’ system, and none figure to have large responsibilities next season if all goes as planned. Tate’s lack of dynamic ability as a return man has frustrated Cincinnati fans for years, but he’ll continue to act in that capacity until the club finds someone who’s as reliable. Winston will compete to serve as the second swing tackle behind Jake Fisher, while Mays, in his second Bengals tour, will handle special teams duties and play the occasional dime linebacker role. If any player from this trio plays significant snaps in 2016, something went terribly wrong.

Continue reading about the Bengals’ offseason…

Read more

Top 10 Teams That Could Sign Dwight Freeney

June 29th, 2016 at 8:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

When I originally outlined this list, I saw more than half the clubs in the NFL as possible landing spots for veteran edge rusher Dwight Freeney. Even in his age-35 season, Freeney managed eight sacks for the Cardinals while playing only 255 defensive snaps. Many teams around the league could use that kind Dwight Freeneyof production.

[RELATED: Best Available NFL Free Agents: Defense]

I eventually whittled down the list, and given that Freeney has stated he’d like to play for a winning team during the upcoming season, I tried to weed out clubs that seemingly have no shot at contending in 2016. Still, Freeney is an enticing addition not only because of his ability to disrupt the pocket, but because he’ll come cheap — his deal with Arizona last year was only for the prorated veteran’s minimum (though it did include sack incentives). Cap space won’t be an issue when trying to lure Freeney.

With that said, let’s take a spin around the league and examine some potential fits for Freeney (and his devastating spin move)…

Atlanta Falcons —  It’s impossible to overstate just how poor the 2015 Falcons were at getting after opposing quarterbacks. They recorded only 19 sacks, the lowest total for any team in in the league since 2009, and finished last in adjusted sack rate. Atlanta’s only meaningful offseason addition to its defensive line was former Dolphin Derrick Shelby, who as Robert Mays gleefully noted in a recent Ringer NFL podcast (audio link), boasts all of nine career sacks. Freeney visited the Falcons at the beginning of June, but head coach Dan Quinn said his club would off — for now — on signing the veteran edge rusher.

Arizona Cardinals — Freeney has always stated that he’d prefer a return to the desert, but it’s not clear if the Cardinals are reciprocating that interest. Arizona acquired former Patriots pass rusher Chandler Jones this offseason, lessening its need to add another edge presence, and the club would also like to see what it has in its younger options, such as Markus Golden, Alex Okafor, and Shaq Riddick. Still, the Cards clearly know what Freeney brings to the table, so a reunion — at some point down the road — still makes a ton of sense.

Baltimore Ravens — All the way back in March, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said his club “wasn’t done in free agency” and casually mentioned that Freeney remained unsigned. Since that statement, Baltimore hasn’t plucked any key players from the open market, but it did select two rush linebackers — Boise State’s Kamalei Correa and BYU’s Bronson Kaufusi — during the draft. The Ravens will already field two aging veterans, Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, at outside ‘backer during the upcoming season, so perhaps the team doesn’t want another player who’s near the end of his career. General manager Ozzie Newsome, however, loves experienced players, as evidenced by the fact that Baltimore deployed the fifth-oldest AV-adjusted defense in 2015, according to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective.

Buffalo Bills — Bills general manager Doug Whaley specifically name-checked Freeney last month, indicating that the club would only look to add veterans if their younger players weren’t progressing as planned during camp. But Buffalo definitely has a need, as first-round pick Shaq Lawson will miss some regular season action after undergoing shoulder surgery. Rex Ryan is planning on using a more conventional 3-4 look in 2016, so Freeney would spend most of time at outside linebacker, but he clearly has the versatility to shift back to end if Buffalo shows a 4-3 front.

Cincinnati Bengals — Along with the Falcons, the Bengals are one of two teams that has actually met with Freeney, as they had him had him in for a workout at the end of May. Cincinnati has two above-average starters at end in Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson, but the club has little in the way of depth. As Roster Resource shows, the Bengals would be forced to rely on Margus Hunt, Will Clarke, and Marcus Hardison — a group that has all of two sacks to its name — if one of their starters went down. But if Cincinnati does look into officially adding Freeney, reports have indicated that it might not be until training camp begins, or perhaps even later.

Dallas Cowboys — In what is clearly a developing theme among clubs on this list, Cowboys management said at the end of last month that they weren’t interested in Freeney for the time being, as they’d prefer to get a look at their younger rushers first. That stance is going to be a problem for Freeney, who has admitted he’d like to get into a camp as soon as possible in order to prepare mentally. Teams simply don’t have much incentive to sign a veteran who will take practice reps away from less-experienced players. Still, with Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory each facing four-game suspensions, the Cowboys clearly have a pass-rushing need.

Detroit Lions — One side of Detroit’s defensive line is spoken for by the dominant Ziggy Ansah, while the opposite side is manned by the underrated Devin Taylor, an ascending player entering the final year of his rookie deal. However, the Lions did lose both Jason Jones and Darryl Tapp in free agency, so they could certainly use another edge rusher to lessen the load on Taylor, who only played about half of the club’s snaps last season. Freeney would be part of a rotation in the Motor City, which is how he’s best utilized. For what it’s worth, Justin Rogers of MLive.com didn’t dismiss the idea of Detroit signing Freeney when asked earlier this month.

Kansas City Chiefs — The Chiefs could be without linebacker Justin Houston, one of the NFL’s best defensive players of the past half-decade, for part or most of the 2016 season after he underwent ACL surgery earlier this year, but Houston isn’t the only Kansas City edge defender dealing with knee issues. Fellow veteran Tamba Hali is also recovering from offseason surgery and hasn’t participated in camp, while Dee Ford left practice earlier this month with knee tendinitis. Freeney wouldn’t help compensate for any loss in coverage, but he’d be an improvement over current Chiefs backups Frank Zombo and Dezman Moses in terms of pass rush.

New Orleans Saints — We’ve discussed at length the historically inept 2015 Saints defense, so suffice it to say that New Orleans can still use all the help it can get. Last year’s second-round pick, Hau’oli Kikaha, was supposed to make the transition from linebacker to defensive end this summer, but he’ll now miss the entire season after suffering a torn ACL in mid-June. Currently projected to rely on Bobby Richardson (who graded as one of the five worst edge defenders in the league last season, according to Pro Football Focus), Obum Gwacham, and fourth-round rookie David Onyemata to line up opposite Cameron Jordan, the Saints could use Freeney perhaps more than any club on this list.

New York Jets — The Jets will continue to run essentially the same defense used by the 2015 Cardinals, as Arizona continued to employ former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles‘ concepts even after he left for the head coaching job in New York. Gang Green’s defense was very good last year, as they ranked fifth in DVOA and first against the run according to Football Outsider’s metrics. The one area where they weren’t exceptional, however, was pass rush (21st in adjusted sack rate). As Roster Resource details, New York is set to count on Lorenzo Mauldin and Jordan Jenkins — who have played a combined 253 snaps in the NFL (all by Mauldin) — as starting outside linebackers. Freeney, then, could be make sense as a edge rusher who sees 20-25 snaps per game.

Others — The Colts could use another rusher off the edge, but Mike Wells of ESPN.com reported last month that Indianapolis hadn’t engaged in talks with Freeney, and added that a reunion was unlikely. Freeney described a possible stint with the Patriots as a “win-win” for both parties, but Mike Reiss of ESPN.com doesn’t see the fit, noting that New England already has a healthy stable of defensive ends and linebackers. In the NFC, the Eagles could be a landing spot as they convert to a 4-3 scheme under new coordinator Jim Schwartz. Brian Robison isn’t anything special opposite Everson Griffen in the Vikings‘ front, while in Carolina, Mario Addison and Wes Horton are currently the last lines of defense for the Panthers if injuries should befall either Kony Ealy or Charles Johnson.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Jacksonville Jaguars

June 29th, 2016 at 9:43am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ draft class:

Patience and an unlimited bank account by team ownership might just be the tickets to get the Jaguars into the playoff picture in 2016. If not, heads are certain to roll, both in the front office and on the field. The maturation of quarterback Blake Bortles, along with the emergence of receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, gives Jacksonville formidable aerial weapons. The addition of former Jets tailback Chris Ivory gives the team a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield, as the newcomer is expected to split time with T.J. Yeldon.

The defense received the bulk of the front office’s attention via the free agent market. Denver’s Malik Jackson was brought on board to join injured 2014 first-round talent Dante Fowler, drastically upgrading the team’s pass rush. Toss in free safety Tashaun Gipson leading a revamped secondary and you can see that coordinator Todd Wash had enough weapons on hand even before the cache of talent the team snatched during the draft.

Jacksonville failed to address their primary need – offensive line – spending six of their seven draft selections on defensive talent. Still, you can envision at least two future All-Pros (Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack) to hopefully emerge from this crop. The rest of the defensive selections were taken with one task in mind – attack the pocket and get to the quarterback.

First Round – Jalen Ramsey, DB (Florida State, No. 5 overall)

The Jags wasted little time running up to the podium with Ramsey’s name on the card handed to the commissioner. Many had figured Ramsey, the best athlete in the draft, would be taken by the Chargers at No. 3 to help ease the loss of Eric Weddle. Ramsey may have slipped past the Chargers and Cowboys due to some minor knee issues and, as it turns out, that injury did pop up during Jacksonville’s rookie camp. Jalen Ramsey

Still, to find Ramsey on the board with the fifth pick was a blessing. The addition of Gipson via veteran free agency will see Ramsey remain a cornerback, at least at the start of his NFL career. He’s already listed as their starting right cornerback, leaving former starters Dwayne Gratz and Aaron Colvin as caddies for Ramsey and Davon House. Both former starters will also have to contend for a roster spot, as the team also inked former Giants first rounder, Prince Amukamara, to a one-year deal. Additionally, the team seems enamored with versatile Nick Marshall, a former college passer making the conversion to the secondary.

Second Round – Myles Jack, LB (UCLA, No. 36 overall)

If Jacksonville was fast to get to the podium with the Ramsey card, they were at warp speed when it came to Myles Jack. Medical reports are split on Jack as some say the injured star is 90% ready to contribute while others indicate that he could have a short-lived career due to his knee issues. Perhaps the Jags felt that Jack was just too good to pass up, even if it is for the short term.

If Jack’s knee is able to withstand the rigors of NFL life, he could be the team’s playmaker at strong-side linebacker. Recent off-field issues for current starter Dan Skuta put the veteran in a precarious situation, but even on his best day, he could not compare to Jack at his worst. Skuta ranked eighth on the team with 40 tackles in 2015 and his 1.5 sacks are easily replaced. Skuta’s roster spot could be in further peril, thanks to the drafting of Yannick Ngakoue and Tyrone Holmes (more on them in a bit). Outside of Telvin Smith, look for the linebacker unit to undergo a transformation this year, with middle linebacker Paul Posluszny possibly holding on to that spot one more year before Jack could be asked to shift inside in 2017.

Read more

Impact Rookies: Tennessee Titans

June 28th, 2016 at 10:00am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with Dave-Te Thomas’ insight on the Tennessee Titans’ draft class:

First Round – Jack Conklin, OT (Michigan State, No. 8 overall)

It was apparent after last season that the Titans needed to address their lack of depth on defense, but they also had to add speed on offense. Ultimately, Tennessee started the draft by placing a higher priority in protecting their franchise quarterback and opted to build a formidable front line that already featured two first rounders and four starters selected by the team since the 2013 draft phase. Jack Conklin (vertical)

The Titans watched Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil slide down the board, but he wasn’t the tackle that they wanted when they traded up from No. 15 to No. 8. When they owned the first overall pick in the draft, many draft experts expected that Tunsil was a shoe-in, but all along the Titans were eyeing either Conklin or Notre Dame standout Ronnie Stanley.

Being a Top Ten choice does not always spell instant success, at least where offensive tackles are concerned. Among the 179 offensive tackles to ever be drafted in the first round, four never even played in any NFL games and seven others never started any contests during their pro careers. Since the 1970 draft, five other first round offensive tackle selections never reached double-digit starting figures.

Still, Conklin’s future looks bright and his presence is doubly appreciated following Byron Bell‘s season-ending ankle injury. His injury leaves the door open for Conklin to immediately step in as the new starter at right tackle, joining 2013 first round right guard Chance Warmack, 2014 first round left tackle Taylor Lewan, 2015 third round left guard Jeremiah Poutasi, and 2013 fourth round center Brian Schwenke up front.

Second Round – Austin Johnson, DT (Penn State, No. 43 overall)

Dick LeBeau is placing more emphasis on the 3-4 game this season and second round pick Kevin Dodd is currently sidelined with a foot injury, which means that the team could experiment with Jurrell Casey playing on the edge and DaQuan Jones on the opposite side. That would leave Johnson to battle Al Woods for time in the middle of the front wall.

The former journalism major graduated from school early and was eligible to compete at the 2016 Senior Bowl, where he put on quite a performance throughout the week-long practices. Johnson ranked second among interior defensive linemen in the major college ranks and finished third overall on his team with 70 tackles. That was the most tackles for a Penn State defensive lineman since Jimmy Kennedy (87) in 2002. He also recorded 6.5 sacks among his fifteen stops behind the line of scrimmage in 2015.

With his thick-cut frame, Johnson can play either the zero-gap or line up as a traditional under-tackle when the team utilizes the 4-3 scheme. He’s proven last season that he can be very stout at the point of attack and you have to be impressed with his balance and coordination when attacking the rush lanes, along with his great leg drive and core strength to anchor vs. double teams.

Second Round – Derrick Henry, RB (Alabama, No. 45 overall)

DeMarco Murray is a ball-hungry veteran intent on proving that last season’s debacle in Philadelphia was a one-time thing. If Murray looks strong off the bat, it remains to be seen how playing time in the backfield will be divvied up. Murray only had 193 carries (3.6 avg) last season, but he had his best year when he carried the rock for 392 times for Dallas in 2014.

Henry is a one-time starter who needs room to operate and build his acceleration. He will have the benefit of seeing fellow Tide backfield mate, Jalston Fowler, serving as the team’s lead blocker out of the backfield, but he will still have to vie for “scraps” that Murray leaves on the table. Further complicating the touches available for Tennessee players is the fact that Bishop Sankey, David Cobb, Dexter McCluster, Antonio Andrews, and David Fluellen will all be fighting for the two available slots behind Murray on the depth chart, though Sankey could be traded. Only time will tell if Henry can be a successful runner in the NFL and the same goes for his opportunity level in 2016.

Third Round – Kevin Byard, FS (Middle Tennessee State, No. 64 overall)

Kevin Byard (vertical)Ever since LeBeau became a coordinator, he has surrounded himself with smart, instinctive safeties. Last year, the Titans made a great move by securing the services of former Bills strong safety Da’Norris Searcy. Now, in Byard, they believe they have a ball-hawk free safety to pair with to Searcy’s hard-hitting style. Byard has nineteen interceptions to show for those ball-hawking skills at MTSU, but despite his pedigree and fine performances in practice at the 2016 Senior Bowl, he was not invited to this year’s NFL Scouting Combine. The Titans realized what he can offer, as he not only set the school all-time theft mark, but also returned those interceptions for 377 yards and four touchdowns.

Byard’s arrival does not mean he will be the instant starter at free safety, which is where Arizona castoff Rashad Johnson resides. His versatility (he played every secondary position in college) will see him be called upon to play the slot corner spot in passing situations and he could also be utilized as a Cover-2 linebacker vs. the run. All that stands in his way for playing time is a challenge from veteran Marqueston Huff, along with Daimion Stafford and Lamarcus Brutus for the two safety spots on the second unit.

Fifth Round – Tajae Sharpe, WR (UMass, No. 140 overall)

To hear Marcus Mariota and the offensive coaches during mini-camp, you’d think that they’d hit the lottery with this fifth round find. Nagging injuries limited the UMass receiver to eleven games last year, but he still pulled in 111 balls, breaking the school season-record. He also holds the career marks with 271 receptions for 3,348 yards. His addition gives Mariota another big, physical possession-type receiver, one with very reliable hands and excellent route-running ability.

Sharpe’s arrival could take playing time away from 2015 second rounder Dorial Green-Beckham, who will now compete with aging veteran Harry Douglas for outside receiver chores. Kendall Wright should line up outside on the right side, and Sharpe expected to challenge Miami castoff Rishard Matthews for the slot receiver role. The team plans on keeping five receivers, putting Douglas and 2013 second round pick Justin Hunter on the bubble. Ben Roberts, Tre McBride, Reece Horn and Andrew Turzilli all appear to be “warm bodies” for training camp at this position.

Fifth Round – Sebastian Tretola, OG (Arkansas, No. 193 overall)

Bell’s loss also gives Tretotala a great opportunity for playing time. Bell was also projected to serve as the top reserve guard, but that role will likely fall to the former Razorback. What Tretola lacks in athleticism, he makes up for with his high level of aggression, especially in the running game. He should easily steal away playing time from fellow Titans reserve blockers, Josue Matias, Andy Gallik, Quinton Spain, and Nick Ritcher. That quartet holds one distinction: none of them were ever drafted. The Titans also signed Ben Jones away from the Texans, but he was mainly brought in to challenge Schwenke for the center spot.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service which has provided insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog. 

 

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Houston Texans

June 27th, 2016 at 10:09am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? Furthermore, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these youngsters, we enlisted the help of NFL Draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we kick off PFR’s Impact Rookie series with Dave-Te Thomas’ insight on the Houston Texans’ draft class:

Will Fuller (vertical)

First Round – Will Fuller, WR (Notre Dame, No. 21 overall) 

Losing an aging Andre Johnson before the 2015 season put a lot of pressure on DeAndre Hopkins, as he was constantly being double teamed. Still, without the benefit of a quality “wing man” on the other side and even more problems at quarterback, Hopkins saw 31% of the team’s passes targeted to him, making 111 grabs that included 11 touchdowns. Johnson’s replacements were found wanting, as Nate Washington took in just 47-of- 95 targeted passes. Cecil Shorts, who recently agreed to a drastically reduced contract, caught just five balls for at least 20 yards among his 42 grabs. The addition of Fuller made Washington a roster casualty and forced Shorts to “shorten” his money to return in 2016. Fuller will not dazzle you with his slight frame, but he definitely disproved scouts who felt he was not fast with a blazing 4.32-second clocking in the 40-yard dash at the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine. He builds acceleration nicely and displays excellent balance and change of direction agility. The thing you see on film is that he has very good success on jump-ball battles (won 12-of- 14 last year), as he does a very nice job of adjusting under the ball and timing his leaps. Along with his body control, he has some of the best stop-and-start skills in this draft class.

Second Round – Nick Martin, C (Notre Dame C No. 50 overall)

Martin is a vast upgrade from the Texans’ previous snapper, Ben Jones, who is no longer with the team. He’s already formed a good bond with Brock Osweiler and should join the Colts’ first round pick, Ryan Kelly, as immediate starters at center for their respective teams. Martin’s arrival will see newly signed Jeff Allen slide into the right guard spot vacated by Brandon Brooks. Greg Mancz and Tony Bergstrom were hoping to compete for the pivot spot after Jones left, but both now vie for second unit duties.

With Chad Slade and Oday Oboushi the only bodies on the roster behind starting guards Jeff Allen and Xavier Su’a-Filo, Martin could also serve as a valuable sixth man on the O-Line, if Mancz or Bergstrom somehow manage to win the center job. Both of those veterans also have experience playing guard and when you couple that with Martin’s arrival, it seems like Slade and Oboushi may not survive training camp, especially if the team opts to keep just ten offensive linemen.

Third Round – Braxton Miller, WR (Ohio State, No. 85 overall)

Shorts, Keith Mumphery, and Jalen Strong will not only have to deal with the arrival of Fuller, one or more players from that trio could be playing elsewhere next season, thanks to third round pick Braxton Miller. The former Ohio State quarterback should take over slot receiver/H-Back duties and adds another element to the offensive game plan with his throwing arm and running ability to perform in the wildcat package.

Tyler Ervin (vertical)

Fourth Round – Tyler Ervin, RB (San Jose State, No 119 overall)

The Texans did not draft Ervin to be their featured back as he obviously lacks the size to carry the ball 25-30 times per game. However, the speedy ball carrier did run for 1,601 yards while displaying his 4.42 speed in 2015. He should be the ideal third-down back, as he also caught 45 balls last season. Look for the San Jose State product to spell Lamar Miller during passing situations and he could replace the duo of Shorts and Mumphery as the team’s new punt returner, as those two combined for just 7.3-yards per return.

If the team opts to keep five running backs, Miller and Ervin will nail down two spots. Fullback Jay Prosch will be challenged by Soma Vainuku, while Kenny Hilliard’s ability to play both spots could give him an advantage over Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes for the final spot in the backfield.

Fifth Round – K.J. Dillon, SS/FS (West Virginia, No. 159 overall)

One man’s misfortune (Karl Joseph’s injury) was another’s fortune in 2015, as Dillon took on a bigger role once his All-American teammate was lost for the 2015 season. Dillon’s ability to play both safety spots, along with starting experience as a weakside linebacker makes him the secondary’s wild card entering camp. Dillon’s physical hitting style will be a better fit at strong safety, where 2013 second rounder D.J. Swearinger never panned out.

Currently, ahead of Dillon on the depth chart are Eddie Pleasant and Kurtis Drummond, but both were castoffs signed as free agents by the Texans.  If Drummond manages to emerge as the strong safety, Dillon can mount a challenge for the free safety position that is occupied by Andre Hal, a 2014 seventh-round pick. Hal led the team with four interceptions and 14 pass break-ups last year, but lacks the coverage speed to handle deep routes. Dillon could displace Hal, who would then slide into a more comfortable role in the sub packages.

If the team keeps five safeties, Dillon, Drummond and Hal should fill three spots, with Pleasant, Demps, Jets castoff Antonio Allen and 2014 seventh-rounder Lonnie Ballentine battling it out for the final two places. If Allen proves he’s recovered from a torn Achilles tendon that forced him to miss the 2015 campaign, a stating tandem of Dillon and Allen at the could be in the team’s future.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service which has provided insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog. 

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Load More Posts