The latest rumor buzzing around the draft world involves the Panthers considering a trade up to acquire the second overall pick from the 49ers, as Matt Miller of Bleacher Report indicated yesterday. Carolina would reportedly move up with the intention of selecting either Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas or LSU running back Leonard Fournette.
But what would such a trade look like? San Francisco, in the midst of a full rebuild, would likely aim to secure more draft wealth, while the Panthers — presumably in win-now mode — are probably willing to part with draft assets. As Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote earlier this week, Carolina has amassed the league’s seventh-most draft capital this offseason , so the club certainly has resources to utilize if it wants to make an upward leap.
According to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective‘s draft value chart, the Panthers wouldn’t have to sacrifice all that much to move from No. 8 to No. 2. Per Stuart, the gap in the two picks is just 8.8 points of draft value, meaning Carolina’s 40th overall pick (worth 11.1 points) would be more than enough to get a deal done. The No. 64 pick — acquired from the Patriots in the Kony Ealy trade– is worth 8.1 points, meaning that it would almost be enough to entice the 49ers.
Let’s take a look at a few potential trades in chart form, using Stuart’s values:
That final trade listed involves the 49ers sending the No. 2 overall pick, an early fourth-rounder, and an early seventh-rounder to the Panthers in exchange for No. 8, No. 40, and an early fifth-round pick. The difference in draft value comes out to 0.0, meaning it’s a perfectly fair deal for both sides — at least on paper.
The classic, Jimmy Johnson-devised trade chart, however, assigns a much greater valuation to early first-round picks, so the Panthers would have to trade much more in order to secure the No. 2 selection. In Johnson’s table, the gap between the second and eighth selections is large enough that a combination of the No. 40 and the No. 64 picks (in addition to No. 8) wouldn’t be enough to convince San Francisco to swap choices. Instead, the Panthers would probably have to give up a 2018 first-rounder in order to complete the trade.
A Thomas acquisition, specifically, would be the latest signal that Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman values the defensive line above all else, as Carolina has already spent early picks on Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short, and Vernon Butler, and has re-signed Mario Addison, Charles Johnson, and Wes Horton this offseason. Thomas for his part, ranks as the fourth overall player on Todd McShay of ESPN.com‘s big board.
Fournette, meanwhile, is considered the top running back of the 2017 class, and Panthers head coach Ron Rivera recently said no draft slot is “too high” to take a runner. Carolina inked incumbent back Jonathan Stewart to a one-year extension last week, but Gettleman said that deal won’t preclude the club from selecting a running back early in this year’s draft.
