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Impact Rookies: Baltimore Ravens

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Baltimore Ravens’ draft class:

The Ravens brought home a cache of eleven players from the draft proceedings and even with them falling just short of a dozen newcomers, it is obvious that the team really needs to get healthy. With a gaggle of starters and substitutes watching from the sidelines last year, one hopes that Baltimore management took full advantage of Obamacare.

The Ravens would reach a dubious record in 2015, as they placed twenty players on injured reserve, the highest figure in head coach John Harbaugh’s eight seasons at the helm. That total grows when you factor in the players that went down before the season even started. The expanded list includes starting tight end Dennis Pitta, whose hip woes kept him parked in the trainer’s room. The team also placed linebacker Zach Thompson (shoulder) on injured reserve prior to his release.

With that in mind, this look at the Ravens’ impact rookies for 2016 will include the team’s 2015 first-round choice:

2015 First Round Selection – Breshad Perriman, WR (Central Florida, No. 26 overall in 2015)

This series typically focuses on rookies from the 2016 class but, technically, Perriman is still a rookie, having spent his first season on the sidelines with a knee injury. With all of the injuries suffered by his receivers, Harbaugh is going to have a lot of questions he needs answered by that unit during training camp, with Perriman being the biggest question mark. Breshad Perriman (vertical)

The Ravens expect that Perriman will be ready for Week 1 after suffering another knee injury this offseason and they are banking on that being an accurate prognosis with Steve Smith still recovering and Darren Waller suspended for the first four games of the season. Perriman, a questionable pick even when he was healthy in 2015, now faces another grueling rehab while his teammates sweat out in the summer heat. A recent MRI revealed that the extent of the recent knee damage would not require reconstructive surgery, but the player who is blessed with great athleticism, still has yet to answer if he is a football player or just a Combine/Pro Day darling.

Perriman’s three seasons at Central Florida produced 115 catches, as his 2,243 aerial yards rest ninth on the school’s career-record chart. He also shares the ninth spot on the all-time chart with sixteen touchdown catches. Now, he hopes that his pro career will produce similar numbers to his father, Brett, who spent ten seasons in the league and recorded 6,589 yards behind 525 receptions that included 30 touchdowns.

Perriman makes good body adjustments to locate the soft spot in the zone. He is a fairly smooth runner, but needs to be quicker in his routes. He is really just a strider who must stay low in his pads to effectively create advantage. He has to do a better job of planting and driving out of his cuts, as he sometimes gathers too much and gears down in doing this. Despite his timed speed (4.52 in the 40-yard dash), he might not have the explosion you look for coming out of his breaks, having to rely upon his size and leaping ability to get to most throws.

Perriman is better served on bubble screens, hitches and post patterns because he takes soft angles rather than sharp 90-degree cuts. Still, he does have the loose hips to change direction and the weave to slip and avoid underneath tackles. When used underneath, he is capable of making better cuts than he does on deep routes. He has quick feet in transition, but just a modest burst to separate. He has more success getting open when he weaves and leverages to move defenders and create space. He is more effective on quick slants and bubble screens due to his long reach.

Perriman will never be confused for a racehorse after catching the ball, as he does not have that explosive separation ability, but he has the functional leg drive to get through initial tackles. He keeps his shoulders square to absorb blows and while he is not a load to bring down in the open, once he gets his legs churning, he can power through.

If the 2015 first rounder does make it back by the season opener, he will likely line up behind Kamar Aiken at the split end position. Aiken led the team with 75 receptions and five touchdowns last year, but that was one of the few bright spots from a unit that placed Baltimore tied for 23rd in the league, as they only scored 21 times through the air. The Ravens receivers failed to get to 37% of Flacco’s passes, either by running poor routes or not concentrating well and that saw the defense take advantage, picking off 21 passes, which tied for third-worst in the league. If healthy, Perriman will have an opportunity to make a mark in his deferred rookie campaign.

Continue reading about the Ravens’ rookie class..

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Impact Rookies: Cincinnati Bengals

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Cincinnati Bengals’ draft class:

The Bengals are soon to reap the benefits from another solid draft, as the first four selections in 2016 all appear to be of starting quality. Their cache from the 2015 draft saw all ten of those selections play for the team last year. They were so impressed with one of their late round finds, that the team let go several key pieces in their secondary to bring fresh legs into the fold. Now, all seven of their draft picks in 2016 have the same opportunity as the previous draft class to claim roster spots.

First Round – William Jackson III, CB (Houston, No. 24)

The Bengals let Leon Hall walk in order to keep Adam Jones, as the right cornerback signed a three-year deal that keeps him in the fold until 2019. The team will make a strong effort to keep Dre Kirkpatrick around as the left cornerback, but he is a free agent after the season and might be in line for a big deal if he can improve upon his 2015 performance. William Jackson III (vertical)

In 2015, the Bengals covered their potential loss of Andre Smith by drafting two tackles. This year, the Bengals tapped William Jackson III as insurance against Kirkpatrick’s possible departure. If Kirkpatrick goes, then Jackson and 2014 first-round pick Darqueze Dennard will be counted upon to lead the secondary in 2017 and beyond.

Jackson was considered a “lockdown corner” for the Houston Cougars after he appeared in thirteen games and finished second in the American Athletic Conference with ten pass breakups in 2014. He also picked off two passes and tallied 37 tackles. Last season, the All-American led the nation and set a Houston single-season record with 23 pass deflections. He also led the nation in passes defended with 28, finishing 20th with five interceptions. He concluded his career ranked third on the UH career passes broken up chart with 40, despite only playing three seasons.

Some other “good news” numbers include Jackson recording six turnovers and coming up with 22 third-down stops. On the “bad news” scale, while he defended so many passes, it could be due to quarterbacks constantly throwing into his area. The Cougar was targeted 93 times in 2016, allowing 41 receptions (44.09%) for 460 yards, an average of 11.22 yards per grab, with receivers totaling seven big plays (20 yards or longer) and twenty first downs vs. the defender, reaching the end zone three times. In run support, he made just five tackles.

Jackson is certainly not going to impress you with being a great physical presence on the field, but he does demonstrate excellent speed (4.37 in the 40-yard dash) and jump- ball timing. He is very consistent in being “getting into the face” of a receiver. He opens his hips well when asked to handle switch-offs on deep patterns and moves well in space, but he certainly lacks any sort of punch and physicality when required to deliver press coverage (recorded ten reps in the 225-pound bench press drill). His leaping ability helps him get to most balls though and he always seems to get his hands on the pigskin, even when he isn’t in great position.

Jackson fails to sink his hips low enough or explode into his hits when asked to wrap and tackle in run support. Still, as a pass defender, his timing is impeccable, evident by his nation-leading 28 passes defended that included five interceptions in 2015.

Read more about the Bengals’ 2016 rookie class..

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PFR Originals: 7/10/16 – 7/17/16

The original analysis and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Community Tailgate: Biggest Deadline Surprise

The July 15 deadline for a club to extend a franchise-tagged player came and went accompanied by a typical flurry of activity, and now that the dust has settled, we would like for you to weigh in on the biggest surprise of deadline day. However, given that the whole football world was taken aback by the Muhammad Wilkerson extension, we’ll make it a little harder on you and take that development off the table for this discussion.

As of July 14, the franchise-tagged club looked like this (of course, the extension that Cordy Glenn signed with the Bills and the Panthers’ decision to rescind Josh Norman‘s tag removed two players from this group):

Franchise players (exclusive):

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

At one point, it seemed likely that Berry and the Chiefs would put pen to paper on a long-term deal, but while both sides remain optimistic that Berry will be manning the defensive backfield in Kansas City for the foreseeable future, they could not come together on a multi-year contract and will have to revisit those talks after the season.

And while it had been reported for some time that Cousins would likely play out the 2016 campaign under the franchise tag, did anyone think Wilkerson was more likely than Washington’s quarterback to score a massive extension? After all, both the Redskins and Cousins are taking major gambles here. If Cousins’ 2016 season looks anything like his 2015 campaign, the Redskins will have cost themselves a great deal of money–although it’s hard to imagine they would be complaining too much–but if Cousins should struggle, he might have cost himself any semblance of long-term security. Plus, although neither Rich Tandler nor Tarik El-Bashier of CSNWashington.com believe Cousins will feel added pressure in 2016 as a result of the fact that he does not have a multi-year deal under his belt, it is hard to imagine it will not at least cross his mind.

And then we have the sheer numbers of Miller’s contract, which are beyond staggering. Although both sides did a fair amount of predictable posturing over the course of their negotiations, it was hard to imagine that Miller would sit out the 2016 season, or that the Broncos would trade their superstar pass rusher. But did even those who predicted that the two sides would strike a deal think the deal would be quite as lucrative as it is?

So have at it. What was the biggest surprise of deadline day (non-Wilkerson division)? The Miller deal, the Cousins or Berry non-deal, or something else entirely? And if you want to weigh in with your thoughts about the Wilkerson extension, feel free to do so.

Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys entered the 2015 season with championship aspirations, but ruinous injuries to franchise cornerstones Tony Romo and Dez Bryant helped torpedo their hopes and send them to a 4-12 finish. With Romo and Bryant back, the Cowboys expect to rebound from last year’s fourth-worst showing – one in which they went 2-6 in one-score games – and it looks as though they’ll have to rely heavily on their star quarterback and receiver (and rookie running back) in order to climb back atop what should be a wide-open NFC East.

Notable signings:

Although it’s obviously a big-market franchise, Dallas took a rather modest approach to free agency. Financially speaking, Cedric Thorntonits most significant transaction was to pilfer defensive lineman Cedric Thornton from division-rival Philadelphia for $17MM over four years, including $6MM in guarantees. Thornton, 28, started in every one of his appearances with the Eagles from 2013-15 (45 in total) and mostly served as an end in their 3-4 alignment. He’ll switch to tackle in the Cowboys’ 4-3, which he played in sparingly as a rookie with the Eagles in 2012. The 309-pound Thornton has a mere four sacks on his resume, though he does have a reputation as a quality run defender. Pro Football Focus ranked Thornton just outside the top 30 of interior defenders against the run last season (and a far better eighth among 3-4 DEs in 2014), so he’s primed to aid a Cowboys defense that allowed the 19th-highest yards-per-carry average in the league and had the fourth-worst DVOA versus rushing attacks in 2015. Now that he’s out of the shadow of Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan, Thornton should experience an uptick in playing time over the 40.6 percent of snaps he appeared in last year. He figures to start alongside Tyrone Crawford on the Cowboys’ interior.

After Thornton, the largest monetary commitment the Cowboys made during the winter was to defensive end Benson Mayowa, a restricted free agent they pried out of Oakland with a three-year, $8.25MM offer sheet and $3.3MM in guarantees. The Raiders deemed the 24-year-old inessential to their cause when they declined to match the Cowboys’ offer to Mayowa, who has only made three starts in his NFL career. Mayowa amassed a combined 30 appearances for the Seahawks and Raiders from 2013-15 and recorded 16 tackles, a sack and two fumble recoveries last season. Despite his lack of experience and relative anonymity, the Cowboys are betting on a noteworthy edge-rushing future from Mayowa, as chief operating officer Stephen Jones said upon signing him. Considering the Cowboys ranked 25th in the league in sacks last year (31) and have since opted against re-signing pass-rushing threat Greg Hardy and fellow end Jeremy Mincey, and have lost Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory to quarter-season suspensions, they’ll need a Mayowa breakout sooner than later.

Joining Gregory and Lawrence on the suspended list is middle linebacker Rolando McClain, whom the team brought back for a third year at a palatable cost ($4MM total, $500K guaranteed). Four months later, the league banned McClain for 10 games thanks to another violation of its substance abuse policy. McClain, 26, will sit for 10 games this year after an earlier suspension kept him out of four contests last season.

Rolando McClainMcClain clearly brings plenty of baggage, but his loss should be a damaging one for Dallas on the field after he played in 60.4 percent of its defensive snaps last season, piled up 80 tackles, two sacks and an interception, and graded as PFF’s 28th-best linebacker among 97 qualifiers. McClain’s suspension this late in the game no doubt puts the Cowboys behind the 8-ball, as free agency isn’t exactly teeming with high-end replacements. PFR’s Dallas Robinson ran down several available options in the wake of McClain’s suspension, with ex-Cowboy Justin Durant among them. The Cowboys have since contacted Durant about a reunion, though no deal has materialized yet and a source informed Robinson that they’re content with their McClain-less linebacker corps.

If Dallas doesn’t sign anyone, the in-house favorite to replace McClain is Anthony Hitchens, who finished third among Cowboys linebackers in snap percentage last year (50.9) while playing on the inside and outside. Hitchens didn’t draw praise from PFF, though, which rated him as the league’s 69th overall LB. It was only his second season, however, so there’s still room for growth from the 2014 fourth-round pick. Regardless, as Robinson noted, Hitchens was already on track to start prior to McClain’s suspension, so the latter’s absence could force Kyle Wilber into a top role on the strong side. Wilber took part in a paltry 21.2 percent of defensive snaps for the club last season and accumulated 24 tackles, and the Cowboys were encouraged enough to retain him on a two-year, $3.25MM deal.

Continue reading about the Cowboy’s offseason…

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NFL Franchise Tag Contract Deadline Primer

**Updated Friday morning, 10:12am CT**

This afternoon, we’ll know the fates of seven franchise-tagged players for the 2016 season and beyond. If their respective teams do not sign them to long-term contracts by 4pm ET/3pm CT, Broncos linebacker Von Miller, Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, Chiefs safety Eric Berry, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson, and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker will all play out the 2016 season on their one-year franchise tenders.

Will some of these players will reach lucrative multi-year deals between now and Friday afternoon? Or could we see all seven players nudged towards free agency in 2017? Here’s a complete rundown of what’s happening with each of these seven players as the deadline approaches:

Franchise Tag With Text (vertical)

Von Miller, Broncos

This offseason, Von Miller went from Dancing With The Stars to wrestling with the Broncos. Naturally, there is strong mutual interest in a new multi-year deal between Denver and the reigning Super Bowl MVP and the two sides even seem to have agreed upon terms of about $114.5MM over six years. However, there remains a significant gulf between the two sides when it comes to guaranteed money and cashflow in the first couple of years. As we’ve seen before, NFL contract terms are often not what they appear to be on the surface. In this league, you can be promised a small fortune, but it doesn’t mean much unless a significant portion of it is guaranteed and comes early on in the deal when the team values you most. Von Miller (vertical)

Back in June, the Broncos offered up a six-year, $114.5MM deal with nearly $40MM guaranteed in the first two years. However, Miller wanted more in the way of guaranteed cash and wanted a higher payout in the first three years. Soon after, Miller doubled down on his threat to hold out in 2016 if he does not get the multi-year deal that he is after and his teammates say that he’s not bluffing. Would one of the league’s best defensive players and fiercest competitors really stay home all year long rather than chase another ring and earn more than $14MM? It’s hard to imagine, but there’s also considerable incentive for Miller to stick to his guns in this situation.

If Miller opts to sit out the 2016 season, the Broncos will only be able to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on him and will not have the exclusive franchise tag at their disposal. Typically, a team that is able to pry a player away on the non-exclusive tag would have to forfeit two first-round picks to the former team. However, per the terms of the CBA, the compensation price would drop from two first-round picks to a first and a third if Miller were to sit out. Some teams would consider forfeiting two first-round choices to land Miller and even more teams would mull it over if that price drops to a first- and third-round choice.

Reportedly, Miller still harbors resentment towards the Broncos for the way that talks have gone this offseason. However, things could be changing now that Denver has updated their offer to give Miller $70MM in “solid guarantees.”

Because of Miller’s holdout threat, there’s arguably more at stake for the Broncos than the other six teams negotiating with their franchise-tagged stars.

Kirk Cousins, Redskins

After a breakout 2015 season, Kirk Cousins wants to be paid like a top NFL quarterback. The Redskins, meanwhile, want to see him do it all over again in 2016 before committing major dollars to him across a five or six-year period.

Kirk Cousins (Vertical)After watching Brock Osweiler go from backup to baller this offseason, Cousins’ camp is salivating at his potential payday on the open market. For Cousins to forego a shot at free agency down the line, his agents are demanding $43.89MM in guarantees over the first two years of the pact, for starters. Wonder where that number comes from? That’s the combined value of the 2016 franchise tag ($19.95MM) and the franchise tag in 2017 ($23.94MM), if the Redskins were to use it again. If Washington wanted to go for an unprecedented three-peat of franchise tags, it would cost them $34.47MM (!) in 2018.

Cousins earned just $660K in 2015, making him one of the league’s very best values last year. Now, he’s looking to cash in on his next deal and he’s made it clear that he’s willing to bet on himself in 2016. As of this writing, the two sides are not expected to come to an accord by Friday afternoon.

Alshon Jeffery, Bears

Alshon Jeffery is regarded as one of the league’s top wide receivers – when he’s healthy. That’s likely the sticking point for the Bears, who want to see the 26-year-old give them a complete season before they give him enough money to buy his own private island. The 6’3″, 216-pound receiver missed six games during his rookie season because of hand and knee injuries. Last year, he sat out seven contests due to calf, hamstring, groin, and shoulder ailments. Alshon Jeffery (Vertical)

However, despite missing a good chunk of the 2016 season, Jeffery still racked up 54 catches for 807 yards and four touchdowns. Since his breakout campaign in 2013, the former second-round pick has averaged 89 receptions, 1,312 yards, and eight touchdowns per 16 games. Jeffery might not have a perfect attendance record, but he is a true game-changer when he is on the field.

Right now, it doesn’t sound like the Bears are going to get a deal done with Jeffery. GM Ryan Pace doesn’t have any qualms about moving on from players of the past regime and he could theoretically allow Jeffery to walk thanks to the presence of Kevin White.

Continue reading about the rest of this year’s franchise-tagged stars:

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Impact Rookies: Miami Dolphins

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Miami Dolphins’ draft class:

Well, I must say, the folks in South Beach surely know how to make draft day proceedings interesting. On Day One, they somehow managed to walk away with a player most had been calling the best prospect in the draft – Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil slid to the Dolphins at No. 13 due to a myriad of off-field issues back in college that was capped by a social media disaster (love your head gear, Laremy, but in the NFL, you have to wear a Riddell model).

The Dolphins entered the draft with eight selections and went home with the same, but they played a little bit of musical chairs in swapping out draft slots before they were done. They even ended playing doing ping-pong with the No. 186 overall selection in round six. Miami had first made a deal with Minnesota, sending two mid-round 2017 slots, along with pick No. 186 to the Vikings in order to move up and select Rutgers receiver Leonte Caroo with the draft’s 86th pick (round three). As the draft continued, the two teams again came to a deal – this time, Minnesota returned that No. 186 selection to South Beach for the No. 196 and No. 227 overall choices. They then used that choice to snatch another receiver, taking Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant.

After an entertaining and active draft weekend, here are the Dolphins rookies that I expect to make a mark in 2016:

First Round – Laremy Tunsil, OT (Ole Miss, No. 13 overall)

The new Miami coaching staff is looking to make major changes to their offensive front wall and Tunsil, if he lives up to his college hype, could be that unit’s foundation, much like high-priced veteran Ndamukong Suh is for the defensive line. Despite some poor decisions in life, there is no questioning Tunsil’s talent, but now comes the task of getting him into the lineup from Day One.

The coaches have slotted the rookie into the left guard spot, lining him up next to a man he will eventually replace at left tackle – Branden Albert. Gone from the first unit is 2015 left guard starter, Dallas Thomas. The team also signed New Orleans castoff, Jermon Bushrod. If the former Saint has anything left in the tank, he gives the Dolphins left side of the line three capable bodies to move around, if injuries do occur during the season.

Continue reading about Tunsil and the rest of the Dolphins’ rookie class..

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens’ 2015 campaign was ruined by injury and under-performance as marquee players like Terrell Suggs, Joe Flacco, and Steve Smith saw their seasons cut short by injury while others like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley failed to live up to expectations. Indeed, if Baltimore is competitive in 2016, it will be as much as a result of its ability to stay healthy as anything else.

But the team did make efforts to address its beleaguered secondary and add some much-needed youth and athleticism to its pass rush, and Flacco, who has never been had an elite group of offensive weapons, could be working with his best collection of talent to date. The AFC North again looks as if it will again be one of the toughest divisions in the league in 2016, so Baltimore will need to make the most out of that talent to keep pace with the Steelers and Bengals.

Notable signings:

Eric Weddle (vertical)The Ravens made a rare foray into the deep end of the free agent waters this year, and they came away with one of the biggest catches in safety Eric Weddle. Weddle instantly provides credibility and stability to a secondary that sorely needs it, and his presence alone should give the unit a major boost. The team will also move Lardarius Webb from cornerback to safety on a permanent basis, a transition that should suit the veteran’s skill-set fairly well. As long as both players can stay healthy, a Weddle/Webb safety tandem certainly looks as if it will be a significant upgrade over last year’s primary duo of Kendrick Lewis and Will Hill.

But even if the Ravens’ safety performance is markedly improved, their cornerback prognosis is still questionable. Jimmy Smith, whose 2014 season was cut short by a Lisfranc injury, still appeared to be ailing in 2015, as he was beaten deep on numerous occasions and was rated by Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) as the 77th-best corner out of 111 eligible players. While Shareece Wright was a pleasant surprise and was rewarded for his strong 2015 campaign with a new three-year contract in March, it is not as if he has an especially illustrious track record, and it is difficult to predict whether his 2015 success will carry over to 2016.

The team also brought in Jerraud Powers, who is a solid but unspectacular player and who lasted for a surprisingly long time on the market before inking a one-year deal with Baltimore two months after free agency opened. Powers is much better in the slot than he is outside the hash marks, but the Ravens already have several other players who fit the same description in rookie Tavon Young and last-year’s free agent acquisition Kyle Arrington. It can never hurt to have too much depth, as the Ravens know all too well, and Arrington is widely considered to be a candidate for release in the coming months, so it would clear up the nickel corner picture a bit if he were to receive his walking papers. In any event, Baltimore will be relying on uncertain talent at the top two spots on its cornerback depth chart, with Jimmy Smith holding down one of those spots and Powers or Wright presumably manning the other. The addition of Weddle will make the rest of the secondary better, but it does not answer all of the questions the Ravens have in the defensive backfield.

Another of the team’s major free agent acquisitions was Mike Wallace, who is coming off a disappointing one-year stint in Minnesota. On paper, Wallace’s speed and big-play ability–which may have diminished some since his heyday in Pittsburgh but which could still be unlocked in in the right circumstances–look to be a perfect fit with Flacco’s cannon arm and penchant for the deep ball. Last season, the Ravens were counting on 2015 first-rounder Breshad Perriman to replace the speed element that the team’s offense lost when Torrey Smith took his talents to San Francisco, but Perriman was never able to recover after a knee injury suffered in training camp, and Flacco was left with Steve Smith and a plethora of underwhelming targets. Perriman’s health is once again up in the air, but with Wallace and rookie Chris Moore in the picture, Baltimore should be better-equipped to handle Perriman’s absence.

The third major free agent acquisition was Ben Watson, who will join a largely uncertain but potentially dynamic crop of tight ends. Watson, who will turn 36 in December, had a terrific year with the Saints in 2015, posting career bests in receptions (74) and receiving yards (825) while matching his career best in touchdowns (six). Dennis Pitta, who missed almost all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons, and who sat out the entire 2015 season, is attempting to come back from his second major hip injury, but given the nature of the injury and the amount of time he has spent on the shelf, it is difficult to say whether he will even crack the team’s roster, let alone return to his pre-2013 level of performance. Third-year player Crockett Gillmore and second-year Maxx Williams have shown flashes in their young careers, and both have a fair amount of upside (particularly Williams, the consensus top tight end in the 2015 draft), but they are still unproven as pass catchers. If nothing else, Watson is a reliable starter, and if Pitta can stay healthy and Gillmore and Williams continue to make strides, the Ravens will be forced to keep four tight ends on the roster for the first time in recent history. And that could be a good thing considering the fact that offensive coordinator Marc Trestman loves getting the ball to his tight ends and the age/question marks at wide receiver. Ben Watson (vertical)

Justin Tucker, meanwhile, signed his franchise tender and could still sign a long-term deal prior to the July 15 deadline, a deal that would most likely make him the highest-paid kicker in the league. He suffered something of a regression in 2015, posting a career-worst field goal percentage of 82.5%, but of his seven misses, six were from 50 yards and beyond, so it’s not as if he has suddenly lost his touch. Even if the two sides do not reach an agreement on a multi-year contract prior to July 15, Tucker will almost certainly remain in Baltimore for the foreseeable future.

Continue reading about the Ravens’ offseason…

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Impact Rookies: Buffalo Bills

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Buffalo Bills’ draft class:

There is a strange silence coming out of Bills camp – head coach Rex Ryan has yet to boast about his team’s Super Bowl prospects. The coach who thrives on positive thinking is spending the wee hours of the day huddled with his twin brother, Rob, hoping they can come up for a formula to improve their suspect run defense. Until they get that front wall operating on all cylinders, they can not even consider a postseason run with a unit that ranked 17th in the league in stopping the run (108.1 ypg), but allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Only seven other teams allowed opponents a higher mark. Rex Ryan

Additionally, their Rolls Royce-priced defensive line could not manage to get to the quarterback, as the only team to register fewer sacks that the Bills (21) were the Falcons (19). At least the Ryans shed the locker room of a high priced veteran who almost wrecked their salary cap in Mario Williams. The NFL’s version of the NBA’s Dwight Howard (I think I’m much better than anybody, so why go and prove it?) was dispatched to Miami, cutting a budget albatross that went to the bank to the tune of $19.4MM last year. He rewarded them with nineteen tackles and five sacks in fifteen starting assignments.

Williams was not the only front wall defender that should have felt somewhat feel embarrassed cashing a paycheck last year. Nose tackle Marcell Dareus recorded 51 tackles and got to the quarterback twice, earning an average of $16.1MM/year with $60MM guaranteed on a deal that runs through 2022. His projected running mate inside, Kyle Williams, garnered a $7.4MM dollar check for 14 tackles and one sack. The aging and injured veteran has a $4.5MM guarantee in the bank, but looms as a roster casualty in camp, especially with rookie Adolphus Washington showing the coaches more than enough to be listed with the first team on the depth chart entering training camp.

While Jerry Hughes tied Mario Williams for the team lead with five sacks in addition to making 52 tackles, it came with a price tag average of nine million with $22MM guaranteed through the 2020 season. Behind him, linebacker Manny Lawson secured three million from the Bills and found just one quarterback in the backfield last year. All told, the team saw eight defensive tackles take home ~16.33% of their cap in 2015. Only Jacksonville ($24,389,776; 16.34% of cap) doled out more money to their interior defenders in the NFL last year.

Their paltry pass rush only cost the team 6.97% of their cap to pay off their defensive ends (21st in the NFL) and their outside linebackers received just 3.18% of the team’s cap funds (31st in the league). You get what you pay for, my grandmother always told me. To rectify that problem, it looks like the Bills went for a long-term solution, but at a possible cost at receiving immediate dividends from their top draft choice in 2016.

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

2015 was a good year for the Jaguars on the offensive side of the ball, as quarterback Blake Bortles, running back T.J. Yeldon, and wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns showed they can be part of a core that could lift the club out of the AFC South basement. Unfortunately, Jacksonville’s defense didn’t make a similar leap, and the end result was a 5-11 record and another top-five draft pick. But with that draft choice and a bundle of cap space, the Jaguars had an opportunity to make headway this offseason.

Notable signings:

For the third consecutive year, the Jaguars and general manager Dave Caldwell were among the league leaders in available cap space, and for the third consecutive year, the club entered the free agent market with an aggressive plan. And for the third consecutive year, Jacksonville used its ample funds to target help along the defensive line.

After acquiring Red Bryant and Chris Clemons in 2014 and Jared Odrick in 2015, the Jaguars lured in former Broncos defensive lineman Malik Jackson, handing him the largest deal — in terms of total value — of the 2016 offseason. On its face, the Malik Jackson (vertical)contract looks like it certainly has a higher chance of success than either the Bryant or Clemons pacts. Bryant was nearing 30, and Clemons had already turned 32, when each signed with Jacksonville. Jackson, meanwhile, just turned 26 years old in January, so his deal should take him through the prime of his career.

Detractors would likely note that Jackson has only one season as a full-time starter under his belt, perhaps comparing him to offensive tackle Jermey Parnell, whom the Jags inked to a relatively large contract last offseason despite him only having seven career starts. But Jackson had been a heavily-used rotational lineman for Denver even before last season, playing on half the Broncos’ snaps in both 2013 and 2014 before seeing that percentage jump to about 75% in 2015.

And Jackson has also been quite good. He posted 5.5 sacks last year, a solid figure for a 3-4 defensive end, and earned the seventh-highest pass rush grade among interior rushers, according to Pro Football Focus, which also assigned him positive marks against the run. Jackson will move inside to defensive tackle in Jacksonville’s 4-3 scheme, lining up at the three-technique next to Roy Miller, Odrick, and 2015 first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr., who has yet to play an NFL down after tearing his ACL last summer. Head coach Gus Bradley, a former Seahawks defensive coordinator, is likely hoping Jackson can become the Jaguars’ version of Michael Bennett.

Jacksonville didn’t stop trying to improve its defense after inking Jackson, and it shouldn’t have, as the unit hasn’t ranked better than 20th in defensive DVOA during Bradley’s three-year tenure (and actually regressed to 26th last season). The club was especially poor against the pass — 28th in yards allowed through the air, 31st in passing defense DVOA — so after signing cornerback Davon House last offseason, Jacksonville brought in former Browns safety Tashaun Gipson, giving him a five-year deal to roam center field.Tashaun Gipson

The Jaguars’ 2015 safety crop was possibly the worst in the entire NFL last season, as Jonathan Cyprien, Josh Evans, and Sergio Brown were all incredibly unproductive. Brown has since been released, and while Cyprien will compete with James Sample for a starting job, Gipson will bring an air of respectability to the Jacksonville secondary. One of the more effective defensive playmakers in the league, the 25-year-old Gipson ranks third in interceptions among safeties since 2013, the year he became a full-time starter.

Elsewhere in the defensive backfield, the Jaguars added former Giants corner Prince Amukamara, inking him to a one-year deal that contains less than $2MM guaranteed. Although it may seem as though as he’s been in the league forever, Amukamara is still only 27 years old, and he’s expected to man the slot while Aaron Colvin serves a four-game suspension. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Amukamara ends up holding down the job for the entire season, or eventually takes over for House on the outside.

Ryan Davis and Abry Jones will return to northern Florida after being assigned second-round restricted free agent tenders, and the pair will add to what is quickly becoming an above-average defensive line rotation. Davis, 27, is the better player, having posted 10 sacks during the past two seasons despite limited playing time. Jones, meanwhile, isn’t a lock to make the Jags’ 53-man roster given all the team’s options on the interior, and his $2.553MM salary is not guaranteed. Jacksonville also added former first-round defensive end Bjoern Werner on a risk-free deal, hoping to capitalize on the upside that led the Colts to take the Florida State alum with the 24th overall pick in 2013.

On offense, the Jaguars signed former Steelers left tackle Kelvin Beachum to one of the more creative free agent deals signed this offseason. The club will pay Beachum only $1.5MM in guarantees in 2016, before being forced to decide on a $5MM option bonus Kelvin Beachumthat would lock in the rest of the contract (and $13MM in guaranteed money). If Beachum stays healthy and plays well during the upcoming season, Jacksonville would presumably be more than willing to pick up the rest of the deal, which would only average $9MM annually.

Of course, Beachum’s health is no sure thing, as the reason he was forced to agree to such a unique deal was an ACL injury wiped out most of his 2016 season. Recent reports have been positive, as Caldwell recently told reporters there’s a “very high percentage” chance that Beachum will be ready for the start of training camp. If and when he does get back on the field, Beachum isn’t expected to be placed in a competition for the left tackle job with former No. 2 overall pick Luke JoeckelBeachum, rather, will simply be handed the job, with Joeckel possibly moving to guard.

If Joeckel does lock down the left guard position, then free agent addition Mackenzy Bernadeau will act as the Jacksonville’s top reserve along the interior offensive line. With 49 career starts under his belt, Bernadeau, 30, is more experienced than any member of the Jaguars’ projected starting front five. He’s also extremely versatile, as he boasts starts at three positions — 40 at left guard, seven at right guard, and two at center.

Among the skill positions, the only major new face who will be present at Jaguars’ training camp in a few weeks is running back Chris Ivory, lured away from the Jets Chris Ivorywith a five-year, $32MM deal. A bruising runner, Ivory finally managed to stay healthy for most of last season and posted the best campaign of his career, rushing for than 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns while also managing a career-high 30 receptions. He’ll team with last year’s second-round pick T.J. Yeldon, but after inking a contract that contains $10MM in guarantees, it’s hard to imagine that Ivory won’t see the majority of carries. At the very least, he should get into the end zone often as the team’s go-to back near the goal line.

Veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis and quarterback Chad Henne both re-signed with Jacksonville, but neither should have a large role next year if all goes to according to plan. Lewis actually outpaced Julius Thomas snap-wise in 2015 as the latter dealt with injury concerns, but Henne didn’t see a single snap in relief of Blake Bortles. Lewis could act as the in-line, blocking tight end while Thomas acts as the move option next season, but obviously something will have gone terribly wrong if either he or Henne are forced to step in for serious amounts of time.

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