Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

The Texans’ blueprint this offseason obvious to everyone as they devoted a full-force effort on multiple fronts to fix their offense. After a defensive-powered season ended with a 30-0 shutout in the wild-card round, Houston will deploy a starkly different starting offense.

For most of this century, teams with elite quarterbacks or those equipped with dominant defenses advanced to Super Bowls. There aren’t many exceptions in the modern game. The 2012 Ravens are one, but they were riding a hot streak from Joe Flacco who was playing some of his best football. The 2016 Texans are banking on another fifth-year passer, but Flacco and Brock Osweiler‘s careers aren’t exactly comparable. Houston bet big on the longtime backup who was at times effective in his audition last season.

Although they employ one of the NFL’s premier players in J.J. Watt, the Texans’ chances will hinge largely on the 6’7″ Osweiler building on his brief success. Last year’s No. 3-ranked defense lifted the team about as far as it could. This offseason, management made a point to provide as much help as possible.

Notable signings:

Midway through 2014, it looked like Peyton Manning was going to play out the five-year contract he signed with the Broncos in 2012, thus giving his lanky backup no realistic opportunity impress potential buyers as a free agent. But the future Hall of Fame quarterback experienced a quick decline that forced the Broncos to retool their offense that season, and his freefall continued in 2015 prior to Manning injuring his foot. Osweiler stepped in and kept his previous defensive-fueled team afloat, altering his career in the process.

The seven-game work sample Osweiler offered included mixed reviews. He showcased some ability despite no previous experience in an important game situation, leading the Broncos to a 4-2 record in games he played throughout. The former second-round pick drove the team to pivotal victories over the Patriots and Bengals to help the Broncos secure home-field advantage. He finished with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions and 245.9 passing yards per game. Denver’s offense also sputtered for several entire halves under Osweiler’s guidance, leading to two December losses and increasing the defense’s burden. What happened during the final stretch of offensive futility under the 25-year-old Osweiler may have changed the long-term outlook for two franchises.

Benched for Manning early in the third quarter of the Broncos’ Week 17 game after a spate of turnovers that mostly were hard to pin on him, Osweiler either was merely miffed at the idea of being replaced after guiding Denver back to the precipice of home-field advantage. Or he saw Gary Kubiak‘s decision as evidence he didn’t want to return to the team. His agreement with Houston came after Denver offered him $16MM per year to continue in a system in which he showed promise. Osweiler has attributed the surprising exit to wanting to start something with the Texans, who are placing immense faith in the Arizona State product whose career began with a longer backup stint than Aaron Rodgers‘.

The Texans are committed to Osweiler for the next two seasons at least. This experiment failing can reasonably result in a divorce in 2018, when just $6MM in dead money would be attached to an Osweiler release. But the Texans spent plenty in offseason capital to give their quarterback weaponry after deploying an offense without much in the way of options beyond DeAndre Hopkins last season.

Houston moved quickly to replace Arian Foster, signing Miller on Day 1 of free agency. Unlike the new franchise quarterback, the Texans’ cornerstone ball-carrier’s ability can be judged based on full-season bodies of work. Miller posted back-to-back slates of at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage. Among backs who received at least 400 carries in 2014-15, Miller’s 4.8 yards per tote rank as the league’s top mark in a sub-category basically exclusive to starting backs. As a receiver, Miller caught 47 passes for nearly 400 yards last season, so he’s no slouch as an outlet option, either.

Miller played 16 games in each of the Dolphins’ past three regular seasons, but 2014’s 210 carries represent the former fourth-round pick’s career high. He stands to have plenty of opportunities in Houston, which looks to have signed a 25-year-old runner with upside thanks to his age and a lack of usage typical of a three-year starter. By this measure, Miller’s $6.5MM AAV (sixth among running backs) accord looks to be a good value bet. He’ll be a key part in helping Osweiler assimilate in south Texas.

The other key piece on the free agency side of the offense-enhancement blueprint, Allen possesses the starting experience closer to Miller but a track record more in line with Osweiler’s. Excepting a 2014 season during which he missed the Chiefs’ final 15 games, Allen was a primary starter in Kansas City after arriving as Scott Pioli‘s final second-round selection in 2012. He started 13 games as a rookie and 14 a year later, but in neither season was he considered an above-average guard. Conveniently for his value and the sake of the Chiefs’ reeling line last year, Allen strung together his best season in 2015.

Previously relocated to right tackle in 2014 prior to his season-ending elbow malady, Allen began his ’15 campaign on the right edge before Ben Grubbs‘ career-ending neck injury moved him back inside. At left guard, Allen became Kansas City’s best lineman, helping the Chiefs adjust to life without Jamaal Charles. But the 6-foot-4 blocker saw a preseason knee injury limit him to 12 games (eight starts) last season. Nonetheless, the Texans needed a guard with Brandon Brooks in the process of signing with the Eagles, and they made Allen the league’s sixth-highest-paid guard on a per-year basis.

Allen’s $7MM average — which ended up being $1MM less per season than Brooks received from Philadelphia — makes him the Texans’ third $5MM-per-year blocker. He’ll join tackles Duane Brown and Derek Newton as veteran presences expected to open lanes for Miller, only Allen will now have to live up to a deal signed on the strength of barely a half-season’s worth of upper-echelon work. Like Osweiler, Allen showcased potential at the right time.

Houston spent less extravagantly to fortify its swing spots but kept Clark and brought in Bergstrom on notable veteran deals. A 2015 trade acquisition from the Broncos, Clark looks like the Texans’ swing tackle, with former Raider Bergstrom settling in as the interior roving backup. Clark could be called to action in a key capacity, however, as Brown remains on the Active/PUP list.

Clark operated in this capacity for the 2013 Broncos, starting the team’s final 17 games after left-edge bastion Ryan Clady went down that September. He performed adequately that year but couldn’t hold the right tackle job in 2014, helping green-light a trade to Houston. Last season, Clark performed better as a run-blocker than in pass protection during his four games as a starter.

Bergstrom suffered a significant foot injury in 2013 and did not play in ’13 or ’14. A former Raiders third-rounder, he returned as a sub for Rodney Hudson in three starts last season. He could also serve as a possible starting center given the team’s recent trouble at that spot. Nick Martin‘s season-ending ankle injury appears to have opened the door for 2015 UDFA Greg Mancz. But the second-year player faltering could move Bergstrom into a position to play with the first unit.

Regardless of whether or not Bergstrom or Clark ascend into the starting lineup, Houston’s now paying five linemen at least $2.5MM per year. Martin’s injury would have set several teams back worse.

Read more

PFR Originals: 8/21/16 – 8/28/16

The original content, analysis, and reporting produced by the PFR staff this week:

The Beat: ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez On The Rams

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Rams with the team’s newest beat writer, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com. You can follow Alden on Twitter @Alden_Gonzalez and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: For those of us who aren’t in the Los Angeles area – what’s the excitement level like in L.A. for the Rams’ return? Los Angeles (Featured)

Alden Gonzalez: It’s been about what you would expect for a team returning to a huge media market, and by that I mean it’s been high. They sold 171,000 tickets to their first two preseason games. That is absurd. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who played at Los Angeles Coliseum in Week 2, raved about how loud it was through even the fourth quarter, when all the subs were in. And each open-to-the-public practice I’ve attended has filled up at least one section of bleachers. The novelty will eventually rub off, of course. They’ll have to win pretty quickly in order to maintain attention spans out here.

Zach Links: The Rams are expected to extend coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead before the start of the season. Do you think it’s wise to extend them given that Fisher’s teams have gone 27-36-1 in the last four years?

Alden Gonzalez: Yeah, I do. I know it isn’t the popular opinion, but extending a GM or a coach does not mean that individual cannot eventually get fired. Especially not for a multi-billionaire like Rams owner Stan Kroenke, who would barely flinch at having to eat whatever remains of contracts for Snead or Fisher if such a scenario took place. Snead and Fisher are at the end of their current deals, and it’s hard to operate like that. The Rams have enough newness going on – new quarterback, new city, one of the youngest rosters in the NFL – and it looks like they at least want some stability up top. Snead and Fisher both know the pressure is on to start winning, whether their contracts are extended or not.

Jared GoffZach Links: How high is the ceiling for Jared Goff? Do you think we’ll see him take over as the starter at some point in 2016?

Alden Gonzalez: I expect him to be the starter at some point in 2016; the only question is when. Barring an uplifting performance in Week 3 of the preseason, though, I do not see him starting the Monday Night Football opener on Sept. 12. He just hasn’t shown enough yet. He needs to be more decisive, he needs to take care of the football and he needs to do a better job of picking up blitzes. All that, in addition to learning to call plays from the huddle and learning to take snaps from under center – two things he really never did at Cal. As far as upside – I think he can be an elite-level passer if he irons those things out. The raw tools are there.

Zach Links: A second franchise tag for Trumaine Johnson would cost the Rams $16MM+ next year. To date, they have been unwilling to pay him like a top NFL cornerback. Do you expect to see Johnson wind up somewhere else in 2017?

Read more

The Hidden Value Of Barkevious Mingo

The Twitter-verse was quick to decide a winner in yesterday’s trade of linebacker Barkevious Mingo from the Browns to the Patriots, with the new potential outcomes for the former sixth overall pick ranging from Pro Bowler to Hall of Famer. Bill Belichick has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to wringing out every last bit of talent from an unheralded player, but the New England head coach might be playing an entirely different game altogether: mastering the NFL’s compensatory pick system.Bill Belichick (Vertical)

[RELATED: Former Belichick protege (and current Lions GM) Bob Quinn had interest in Mingo]

While the league has never disclosed the formula that it uses when calculating which clubs receive compensatory selections, the basics of the process are known. Essentially, comp picks are granted to teams that lose more compensatory players than they sign during the free agent period. Each club can receive a maximum of four comp selections, and while the specifics of the method aren’t made public, analysts such as Nick Korte of Over the Cap have reverse-engineered the exercise to reveal that average salary and play time are key factors.

The Patriots, among other teams, have taken advantage of this arrangement for years by staying out of the big-ticket free agent market. As Bill Barnwell of Grantland explained last January:

By [not signing expensive free agents] and having other teams target their free agents, the Patriots come in line for various compensatory picks from the NFL’s obtuse, black-box system. These picks aren’t tradable (ed. note: comp picks will be tradable beginning in 2017), and no team can receive anything higher than a third-rounder as part of the league’s system, but their value can add up over time. The Patriots have made 25 compensatory selections during Belichick’s time with the team, and the estimated value of those picks — based on their draft slot alone — is roughly between the value of having the first overall pick and the second overall pick. All for not signing free agents.

But Belichick and the rest of the New England front office have also been targeting another ripe area of the NFL’s structure: the trade market, and more specifically, the trade market for players nearing the end of their contracts. Mingo is the latest example, but over the past several years, the Patriots have looked to acquire players who were close to reaching the free agent market, presumably in the hopes that yet another compensatory pick might come their way.

Read more

Impact Rookies: New Orleans Saints

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Sheldon Rankins, DT (Louisville, No. 12 overall)

The Saints found a playmaker in Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins. One month ago, I would have told you that Tyler Davison and Nick Fairley should watch their backs as the former Cardinals powerhouse was rapidly pushing for first unit assignments. Unfortunately, Rankins suffered a broken fibula a couple of weeks ago, meaning that we’ll have to wait a little longer to see him take the field. Even though he seems ticketed for IR-DTR, Rankins still appears poised to make an impact in 2016. Sheldon Rankins (vertical)

Thrust right into action as a 280-pound true freshman, Rankins was a valuable performer for Louisville and “fireplug” at the strong-side defensive tackle position, playing in a 4-3 defensive alignment during his first two campaigns.

With the Cardinals shifting to a 3-4 defense in 2014, Rankins returned to his “roots” at strong-side defensive end, a position where he had compiled 153 tackles (112 solos) with 23.0 sacks and 49.0 additional stops behind the line of scrimmage with 23 quarterback pressures, five fumble recoveries, six forced fumbles, six pass deflections, and three interceptions during his sophomore through senior prep campaigns.

Entering the 2015 season, the Cardinals defender has an appropriate last name. If you consider the consensus analysis from professional scouts, at the strong-side defensive tackle position, it is sort of a “rank and file,” with Rankins the unquestioned top 2016 draft talent, and the rest of the eligible prospects “filing” in behind him.

Rankins is a very disruptive run defender with rare initial quickness. He is at his best shooting gaps and planting ball carriers in the backfield, but he also has long arms (33 inches) for his frame and the upper-body strength to press blockers off him. His ability to penetrate also makes it tough for quarterbacks to step up in the pocket, and he doesn’t have to win with quickness to be an effective pass-rusher, either. He has the violent hands and motor to get to the quarterback when he doesn’t win with his first move.

Rankins is an exceptional competitor with great football character and football/classroom intelligence. He’s a self-motivator, called the team’s “best” practice player by the coaching staff. He has developed into a “film junkie” and easily transfers what he learns in film study to the field. He displays elite first-step quickness and explodes into the backfield, as he can handle either the five- or three-technique chores, thanks to his low center of gravity and explosiveness that makes it tough to establish position against him.

Rankins’ hand usage and upper body strength shows that he has more than enough ability to split double teams. He consistently shoots the gaps to make plays in the backfield and excels at using his hands to control blockers and tracks the ball when moving down the line. He is not the type that will have any issues when trying to anchor when forced into phone booth vs. bigger offensive linemen, as he does a very nice job to split double team action with initial quickness and power.

Read more

The Beat: Ryan O’Halloran On The Jaguars

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Jaguars with Ryan O’Halloran of the The Florida Times-Union. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @ryanohalloran and check out his stories here.

Zach Links:  Right now, the Jaguars don’t sound intent on signing Greg Hardy, even though they auditioned him earlier this summer. Do you sense that a change of heart is possible? Or have the Jaguars concluded that Hardy is not worth all of the baggage that comes with signing him? Greg Hardy

Ryan O’Halloran: The only way a change of heart is possible is if the Jaguars are equal parts beset by injuries or ineffectiveness at the defensive end spot early in the year. If they were afraid of his baggage, they wouldn’t have brought Hardy in for a visit. This way, they’ve met him, heard his side of things and worked him out so if they need to call him on a Tuesday to sign him and get to town for practice on a Wednesday, they don’t have to do all of the research.

Zach Links:  The Jaguars shelled out lots of money for Malik Jackson, a player who has only one season as a full-time starter on his resume. Will the Jaguars come to regret the six-year, $85.5MM deal ($31.5MM guaranteed) or will he prove to be a difference-maker for years to come?

Ryan O’Halloran: More often than not, these gigantic deals become regrettable down the line. That said, the guess here is Jackson will be a difference-maker early in the contract. Against the Jets in the preseason opener, he showed good power by pushing a guard back and impacting Ryan Fitzpatrick’s throwing motion. The Jaguars needed a three-down interior defensive lineman like Jackson and also needed to overpay to get him.

Read more

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although the Buccaneers are in the midst of an eight-year playoff drought, they appear to be on the right track after taking significant steps forward in 2015. Not only did Tampa Bay enjoy a four-win improvement and better its point differential by 58 from 2014 to 2015, but it may have found a franchise quarterback in Jameis Winston. The No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, Winston acquitted himself well as a rookie and could soon help lead the Buccaneers back to consistent contention for the first time since the early 2000s. In a perfect world for the Bucs, their return to the postseason will come in January 2017. However, given the club’s relatively modest offseason, it’s likely too soon to expect it to push for a playoff spot in the NFC.

Notable signings:

General manager Jason Licht said before free agency that the Buccaneers would be “selective and strategic” in spending money and wouldn’t dole out contracts with the potential to damage their cap over the long haul. Licht was true to his word, as even the most sizable deals he awarded to veterans will be easy to escape in short order if they don’t work out.

Doug Martin (vertical)

In terms of both contract (five years, $35.75MM with $15MM in guarantees) and star power, running back Doug Martin was Tampa Bay’s most notable offseason signing. Given that the Buccaneers decided in May 2015 to decline Martin’s $5.621MM fifth-year option for 2017, they took a financial hit this past winter in committing nearly three times that much in guarantees to their 2012 first-round pick. A year ago, though, Martin was coming off back-to-back miserable seasons that made his sensational rookie campaign look like a fluke. He revisited his first-year form last season, however, finishing second in the NFL in both carries (288) and rushing yards (1,409) en route to first-team All-Pro status.

Considering Martin’s inconsistent track record, betting on the 27-year-old going forward looks like a gamble. In the event he’s unable to live up to his new pact, the Bucs will be able to bail on his contract after the 2017 season, thus mitigating the risk. Should Martin keep serving as a quality option, Tampa Bay will continue to have one of the league’s most well-rounded backfield duos in him and Charles Sims. Led by that tandem, the Buccaneers finished last season first in yards-per-carry average (4.8), fifth in overall rushing (2,162) and 11th in DVOA – up from 31st in 2014.

Among the players who will be responsible for blocking for Martin and Sims is left guard J.R. Sweezy, whom the Buccaneers inked to a five-year, $32.55MM pact with $14.5MM guaranteed in free agency. With a combined $2.5MM in dead money through 2020 left after this year, the Buccaneers will be able to move on from Sweezy without much difficulty if they have buyer’s remorse.

Sweezy spent the first four years of his career in Seattle, where he started in all 46 of his appearances from 2013-15, though Pro Football Focus ranked him just 66th among 81 qualified guards in overall performance last season. Nevertheless, the Bucs are counting on Sweezy as the long-term replacement for the retired Logan Mankins, whom PFF placed 15th in 2015. The Sweezy era in Tampa Bay hasn’t gotten off to an ideal start, though, as the 27-year-old will miss at least the first five weeks of the season with a back injury. In the meantime, the Buccaneers are likely to go with former tackle Kevin Pamphile, a third-year man with four starts on his resume.

Robert Ayers

On the defensive side, the Buccaneers went into free agency looking to augment a pass rush that finished last season tied for 14th in sacks (38) and 22nd in hurries (91). To help with those issues, they added defensive end Robert Ayers, a former Bronco and Giant who amassed 21 sacks and four forced fumbles in 39 games over the previous three seasons. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Ayers missed four games in 2015, but his production was highly impressive – he picked up a career-high 9.5 sacks and added 18 hurries, placing him between the likes of Chandler Jones (16) and Olivier Vernon (20).

Ayers, who also finished last year as PFF’s eighth-best edge rusher (110 qualifiers), is now on the Buccaneers’ books through 2018. But that doesn’t necessarily have to be the case – in the event of an appreciable decline in output, the Bucs will be able to move on from Ayers either after this season or after next without taking on any dead money. While Tampa Bay would rather see Ayers play well and remain in place for the duration of his three-year, $19.5MM deal, the fact that his contract has no cap ramifications past this season makes it a worthy gamble for the organization.

Joining Ayers in the Buccaneers’ front seven is 13th-year man Daryl Smith, who’s slated to start at strongside linebacker after dividing his first 12 seasons between Jacksonville and Baltimore. Notably, Smith played the first four years of his career under new Buccaneers defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who was the Jaguars’ defensive chief during those seasons. Daryl Smith enjoyed some fine seasons with the Jags, and he was particularly durable as a member of the Ravens. In Baltimore, Smith started in 48 straight games from 2013-15 and racked up 120-plus tackles in each of his three seasons with the club, while also combining for nine sacks and four forced fumbles. PFF was unimpressed with Smith’s play last year, though, as the outlet ranked him 71st among 97 qualified linebackers. The Ravens then cut Smith in early March, but based on his ability to stay on the field and produce, the Bucs made out well in signing the 34-year-old for a fairly meager sum of $2.5MM.

“Not only is he a really good football player, but once you get to know Daryl and the type of guy he is, I think Daryl will be a really good sounding board,” new head coach Dirk Koetter told Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report. “His experience and the players that he’s played with in his career, the things that he’s accomplished in his career, will do nothing but help Lavonte [David] and Kwon [Alexander] advance as players.”

Thanks largely to a weak secondary, Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-most touchdown tosses (31) and the second-highest passer rating (101.2) in the league last season. With that in mind, the club addressed the area over the winter by signing outside help (Brent Grimes and Josh Robinson) and re-upping Chris Conte, Bradley McDougald and Keith Tandy to new deals.

Brent Grimes

Grimes, a cornerback, is clearly the most accomplished member of the group, having started in 90 of 106 appearances with two teams – the Falcons and Dolphins – and totaling 26 interceptions since entering the league in 2007. Like Daryl Smith, Grimes also worked under Mike Smith previously. Grimes played in Atlanta from 2007-12, and Smith was the Falcons’ head coach in five of those six seasons. The rapport they established with the Falcons helped lead to a reunion in Tampa Bay.

“It’s a big deal for me, because I like the system,’’ Grimes told Roy Cummings of the Tampa Bay Times in March. “And one thing I know about Mike Smith is, he’s a great coach as far as everybody on the field knowing where they need to be and knowing what their assignment is, and he pays great attention to detail.”

After leaving Atlanta, Grimes was an impressive producer in Miami, where he started in all 47 appearances over the previous three seasons and picked off either four or five passes in each of those years (though he did yield a 103.2 passer rating against in 2015). Grimes is now in his age-33 season, so he’s unlikely to resemble a shutdown corner at this juncture. Still, as is the case with their other established veteran signings, the Bucs will have the option of waving goodbye to Grimes with no real harm done at season’s end. Regardless of whether Grimes sees his two-year deal with the Buccaneers through, the organization will hope his outspoken wife, Miko, is capable of avoiding controversy. She already made headlines for the wrong reasons last month, which wasn’t anything new.

While neither Robinson nor Tandy is expected to play a huge role at corner in Tampa Bay’s secondary this year, both Conte and McDougald have realistic chances to occupy the starting safety spots. Conte performed well in 2015, his first season with the Buccaneers, starting 13 of 14 appearances and totaling 79 tackles, three interceptions and two forced fumbles. The ex-Bear’s output also netted him a solid 32nd-place ranking among 88 qualifying safeties at PFF, and the Bucs elected to bring him back on a one-year deal. The team made the same decision with McDougald, whom it signed to a second-round tender for 2016. McDougald led the team’s defensive backs in snap percentage last season (81.2 percent), and he piled up 87 tackles and two interceptions along the way, but the Bucs haven’t been happy with his work this summer. However, with only flawed options behind McDougald, he’s a good bet to open the season as the club’s No. 1 free safety.

Read more

The Beat: Jeff Schudel On The Browns

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Browns with Jeff Schudel of the The News-Herald and Morning-Journal. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @jsproinsider and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: As expected, the Browns named RGIII as their starting quarterback this week. What are your expectations for him? Can he recapture some of the magic he showed early on in Washington? Robert Griffin III Browns (vertical)

Jeff Schudel; I do have high expectations for RG3, but that might be a relative term. He will become the Browns 25th starting quarterback in 18 years when he takes the first snap against the Eagles on Sept. 11, so if he manages to throw more touchdown passes than interceptions and win five or six games he’ll be a success. Griffin has surprised me with his running. I don’t expect him to run as much as he did in 2012 when he was a rookie with the Redskins, but Hue Jackson will design runs for him.

Zach Links: Speaking of the quarterback position, what do you think the Browns should do with Josh McCown? Should they continue to hold out for a third- or fourth-round pick from the Cowboys in a potential trade?

Jeff Schudel; In my opinion the Browns should not take less than a third for McCown. That is probably too steep for a quarterback that was 2-17 over the last two seasons, but he is worth more to the Browns as a backup than a fourth-round pick would be. The odds of RG3 making it through 16 games behind this offensive line are slim. Rookie Cody Kessler isn’t ready to play.

Read more

Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

Many NFL observers had not only penciled in the Colts for a lengthy postseason run, but projected Andrew Luck to be among the league’s top contenders for the MVP award. Instead, Luck dealt with injuries (and wasn’t all that productive when he was on the field), and though backup Matt Hasselbeck played well at times, the offense couldn’t handle the loss of its starting quarterback, and finished 30th in DVOA. Indy’s defense was surprisingly competent (13th in DVOA), but that performance wasn’t enough to help the club finish better than 8-8, second in the AFC South.

Notable signings:

The Colts and general manager Ryan Grigson have been active spenders during the last two free agent periods, as they’ve attempted to augment their roster with external additions. During the 2014-15 offseasons, Indianapolis handed out an average of $38.5MM in guaranteed money while inking veterans such as D’Qwell Jackson, Arthur Jones, Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and Trent Cole. This year, the club took a markedly different approach, limiting their free agent spending and disbursing less than $20MM in guarantees.Dwayne Allen (featured)

The majority of that money went towards re-signing one of the Colts’ own free agents, as the club hammered out a four-year deal to retain tight end Dwayne Allen. The 26-year-old is coming off a platform season during which he was not only hampered by ankle and calf injuries, but posted only 16 receptions for just over 100 yards and one touchdown, so it’s perhaps surprising that Allen is now among the 10 highest-paid tight ends on an annual basis.

But this contract was offered with an eye towards the future, as new Indy offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski — a former tight ends coach who often features the position in his scheme — reportedly told Allen that he’d be more involved in the club’s gameplan going forward. Allen has flashed before (he put up a 45/521/3 line during his rookie campaign), and as Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus noted at time of the signing, Allen has always graded out well as a blocker, both in the run and pass game.

The Colts’ only other notable re-signing was that of kicker Adam Vinatieri, with whom the club worked out a two-year deal. In 2015, Vinatieri connected on 25 of 27 field goal tries, for a 92.6% conversion rate. However, he did occasionally struggle with the longer extra point, missing three of 35 attempts. Still, there were few NFL kickers more reliable than Vinatieri, who is now third on the league’s list of all-time leading scorers. With 2,253 points, Vinatieri should be able to make a run at Morten Andersen (2,544) and Gary Anderson (2,434) as he plays out the final leg of his career.

On defense, Indianapolis found a cornerback who can slot in opposite Vontae Davis, as it agreed to terms with Patrick Robinson, who spent last season with the Chargers. A first-round pick of the Saints back in 2010, Robinson never broke out until heading to San Diego, as he started 10 games in 2015 and graded as the league’s No. 30 CB among 111 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus.Patrick Robinson (Vertical)

Because Davis lines up primarily on the right side, Robinson will see most of his time at left corner, although he is also capable of playing in the slot. As PFF’s Nathan Jahnke tweeted earlier this year, Robinson held quarterbacks to the third-worst rating (67.7) in the league when lined up in the slot. But with Darius Butler entrenched on the inside, Robinson will likely stay on the outside most of the time, something that Grigson confirmed when the 28-year-old was signed.

Joining Robinson in the secondary will be veteran corner Antonio Cromartie, who was just signed yesterday following news that Davis will miss at least the first month of the season with an ankle injury. Cromartie, a 10-year veteran and four-time Pro Bowler, has been on the open market since the Jets released him in February. That was the end of Cromartie’s second stint with New York, which lasted only one season. Pro Football Focus ranked him just 86th out of 111 qualified cornerbacks in 2015, but he’ll now likely be counted on to start for a quarter of the season at minimum.

While Indianapolis is planning on Robinson and Cromartie providing consistent production in the defensive backfield, the club is surely hoping that Scott Tolzien doesn’t see many — if any — snaps this year as he serves as Andrew Luck‘s backup at quarterback. Luck is coming off an injury-wrecked season, but the Colts were able to stay afloat thanks in some part to the play of Matt Hasselbeck.

Tolzien, meanwhile, doesn’t have anywhere close to the level of experience that Hasselbeck did, as Tolzien has only attempted 91 passes during his career. As such, it’s fair to wonder why Indy didn’t target a more high-profile backup signal-caller. But, as former Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore once said (in an extremely colorful way), clubs are usually finished if their starting quarterback goes down, so perhaps not investing in a No. 2 option is the smart strategy.

Indianapolis doesn’t have much depth behind Luck, and the club is also short on options behind running back Frank Gore, who is entering his age-33 season. Veteran free agent additions Jordan Todman and Robert Turbin, each of whom signed minimum salary benefit deals, both figure to make the roster and would likely share carries if Gore suffers an injury. However, 2016 undrafted free agent Josh Ferguson has been drawing rave reviews, and could leap both Todman and Turbin for playing time.

Continue reading about the Colts’ offseason…

Read more

The Beat: Will Leitch On The Cardinals

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with writers and columnists from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Cardinals with Will Leitch. Will is a senior writer for Sports on Earth, a contributing editor for New York Magazine, and hosts the daily podcast “The Will Leitch Experience.” You can follow Will on Twitter @WilliamFLeitch.

Zach Links: Like many Cardinals fans, you were puzzled by Carson Palmer‘s collapse in last season’s playoffs. This offseason, the Cardinals tied themselves to the veteran through 2018 with an extension. How do you feel about Palmer as the Cards’ QB heading into this season? Carson Palmer

Will Leitch: Yeah, he was a nightmare in the playoffs, like he’d forgotten everything that had made him and the team great throughout the season. You’d actually seen that in the Packers game, some dunderheaded mistakes that weren’t indicative of how he played in the regular season, but I thought it was attributable to him still not having that playoff-victory monkey off his back. And then he was ten times worse against Carolina. So, yeah, it’s worrisome, but not NEARLY as worrisome as it would have been if Palmer hadn’t have come back, or if he gets hurt. Palmer is the perfect fit for this offense — the only thing that isn’t perfect is that he isn’t 27 — but more to the point, he’s the only available fit for this offense. As bad as the playoffs were, the team would be completely lost without him. I’m terrified that he goes down in Week Two and the whole team implodes. The Cardinals have had some truly awful quarterbacking over the last decade; I’m twitching just thinking about it. No offense to Drew Stanton, but yes: Palmer is the whole sandwich here.

Continue reading our Q&A with Will Leitch..

Read more

Show all