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NFL Franchise Tag Contract Deadline Primer

**Updated Friday morning, 10:12am CT**

This afternoon, we’ll know the fates of seven franchise-tagged players for the 2016 season and beyond. If their respective teams do not sign them to long-term contracts by 4pm ET/3pm CT, Broncos linebacker Von Miller, Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, Chiefs safety Eric Berry, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson, and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker will all play out the 2016 season on their one-year franchise tenders.

Will some of these players will reach lucrative multi-year deals between now and Friday afternoon? Or could we see all seven players nudged towards free agency in 2017? Here’s a complete rundown of what’s happening with each of these seven players as the deadline approaches:

Franchise Tag With Text (vertical)

Von Miller, Broncos

This offseason, Von Miller went from Dancing With The Stars to wrestling with the Broncos. Naturally, there is strong mutual interest in a new multi-year deal between Denver and the reigning Super Bowl MVP and the two sides even seem to have agreed upon terms of about $114.5MM over six years. However, there remains a significant gulf between the two sides when it comes to guaranteed money and cashflow in the first couple of years. As we’ve seen before, NFL contract terms are often not what they appear to be on the surface. In this league, you can be promised a small fortune, but it doesn’t mean much unless a significant portion of it is guaranteed and comes early on in the deal when the team values you most. Von Miller (vertical)

Back in June, the Broncos offered up a six-year, $114.5MM deal with nearly $40MM guaranteed in the first two years. However, Miller wanted more in the way of guaranteed cash and wanted a higher payout in the first three years. Soon after, Miller doubled down on his threat to hold out in 2016 if he does not get the multi-year deal that he is after and his teammates say that he’s not bluffing. Would one of the league’s best defensive players and fiercest competitors really stay home all year long rather than chase another ring and earn more than $14MM? It’s hard to imagine, but there’s also considerable incentive for Miller to stick to his guns in this situation.

If Miller opts to sit out the 2016 season, the Broncos will only be able to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on him and will not have the exclusive franchise tag at their disposal. Typically, a team that is able to pry a player away on the non-exclusive tag would have to forfeit two first-round picks to the former team. However, per the terms of the CBA, the compensation price would drop from two first-round picks to a first and a third if Miller were to sit out. Some teams would consider forfeiting two first-round choices to land Miller and even more teams would mull it over if that price drops to a first- and third-round choice.

Reportedly, Miller still harbors resentment towards the Broncos for the way that talks have gone this offseason. However, things could be changing now that Denver has updated their offer to give Miller $70MM in “solid guarantees.”

Because of Miller’s holdout threat, there’s arguably more at stake for the Broncos than the other six teams negotiating with their franchise-tagged stars.

Kirk Cousins, Redskins

After a breakout 2015 season, Kirk Cousins wants to be paid like a top NFL quarterback. The Redskins, meanwhile, want to see him do it all over again in 2016 before committing major dollars to him across a five or six-year period.

Kirk Cousins (Vertical)After watching Brock Osweiler go from backup to baller this offseason, Cousins’ camp is salivating at his potential payday on the open market. For Cousins to forego a shot at free agency down the line, his agents are demanding $43.89MM in guarantees over the first two years of the pact, for starters. Wonder where that number comes from? That’s the combined value of the 2016 franchise tag ($19.95MM) and the franchise tag in 2017 ($23.94MM), if the Redskins were to use it again. If Washington wanted to go for an unprecedented three-peat of franchise tags, it would cost them $34.47MM (!) in 2018.

Cousins earned just $660K in 2015, making him one of the league’s very best values last year. Now, he’s looking to cash in on his next deal and he’s made it clear that he’s willing to bet on himself in 2016. As of this writing, the two sides are not expected to come to an accord by Friday afternoon.

Alshon Jeffery, Bears

Alshon Jeffery is regarded as one of the league’s top wide receivers – when he’s healthy. That’s likely the sticking point for the Bears, who want to see the 26-year-old give them a complete season before they give him enough money to buy his own private island. The 6’3″, 216-pound receiver missed six games during his rookie season because of hand and knee injuries. Last year, he sat out seven contests due to calf, hamstring, groin, and shoulder ailments. Alshon Jeffery (Vertical)

However, despite missing a good chunk of the 2016 season, Jeffery still racked up 54 catches for 807 yards and four touchdowns. Since his breakout campaign in 2013, the former second-round pick has averaged 89 receptions, 1,312 yards, and eight touchdowns per 16 games. Jeffery might not have a perfect attendance record, but he is a true game-changer when he is on the field.

Right now, it doesn’t sound like the Bears are going to get a deal done with Jeffery. GM Ryan Pace doesn’t have any qualms about moving on from players of the past regime and he could theoretically allow Jeffery to walk thanks to the presence of Kevin White.

Continue reading about the rest of this year’s franchise-tagged stars:

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Impact Rookies: Miami Dolphins

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Miami Dolphins’ draft class:

Well, I must say, the folks in South Beach surely know how to make draft day proceedings interesting. On Day One, they somehow managed to walk away with a player most had been calling the best prospect in the draft – Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil slid to the Dolphins at No. 13 due to a myriad of off-field issues back in college that was capped by a social media disaster (love your head gear, Laremy, but in the NFL, you have to wear a Riddell model).

The Dolphins entered the draft with eight selections and went home with the same, but they played a little bit of musical chairs in swapping out draft slots before they were done. They even ended playing doing ping-pong with the No. 186 overall selection in round six. Miami had first made a deal with Minnesota, sending two mid-round 2017 slots, along with pick No. 186 to the Vikings in order to move up and select Rutgers receiver Leonte Caroo with the draft’s 86th pick (round three). As the draft continued, the two teams again came to a deal – this time, Minnesota returned that No. 186 selection to South Beach for the No. 196 and No. 227 overall choices. They then used that choice to snatch another receiver, taking Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant.

After an entertaining and active draft weekend, here are the Dolphins rookies that I expect to make a mark in 2016:

First Round – Laremy Tunsil, OT (Ole Miss, No. 13 overall)

The new Miami coaching staff is looking to make major changes to their offensive front wall and Tunsil, if he lives up to his college hype, could be that unit’s foundation, much like high-priced veteran Ndamukong Suh is for the defensive line. Despite some poor decisions in life, there is no questioning Tunsil’s talent, but now comes the task of getting him into the lineup from Day One.

The coaches have slotted the rookie into the left guard spot, lining him up next to a man he will eventually replace at left tackle – Branden Albert. Gone from the first unit is 2015 left guard starter, Dallas Thomas. The team also signed New Orleans castoff, Jermon Bushrod. If the former Saint has anything left in the tank, he gives the Dolphins left side of the line three capable bodies to move around, if injuries do occur during the season.

Continue reading about Tunsil and the rest of the Dolphins’ rookie class..

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens’ 2015 campaign was ruined by injury and under-performance as marquee players like Terrell Suggs, Joe Flacco, and Steve Smith saw their seasons cut short by injury while others like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley failed to live up to expectations. Indeed, if Baltimore is competitive in 2016, it will be as much as a result of its ability to stay healthy as anything else.

But the team did make efforts to address its beleaguered secondary and add some much-needed youth and athleticism to its pass rush, and Flacco, who has never been had an elite group of offensive weapons, could be working with his best collection of talent to date. The AFC North again looks as if it will again be one of the toughest divisions in the league in 2016, so Baltimore will need to make the most out of that talent to keep pace with the Steelers and Bengals.

Notable signings:

Eric Weddle (vertical)The Ravens made a rare foray into the deep end of the free agent waters this year, and they came away with one of the biggest catches in safety Eric Weddle. Weddle instantly provides credibility and stability to a secondary that sorely needs it, and his presence alone should give the unit a major boost. The team will also move Lardarius Webb from cornerback to safety on a permanent basis, a transition that should suit the veteran’s skill-set fairly well. As long as both players can stay healthy, a Weddle/Webb safety tandem certainly looks as if it will be a significant upgrade over last year’s primary duo of Kendrick Lewis and Will Hill.

But even if the Ravens’ safety performance is markedly improved, their cornerback prognosis is still questionable. Jimmy Smith, whose 2014 season was cut short by a Lisfranc injury, still appeared to be ailing in 2015, as he was beaten deep on numerous occasions and was rated by Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) as the 77th-best corner out of 111 eligible players. While Shareece Wright was a pleasant surprise and was rewarded for his strong 2015 campaign with a new three-year contract in March, it is not as if he has an especially illustrious track record, and it is difficult to predict whether his 2015 success will carry over to 2016.

The team also brought in Jerraud Powers, who is a solid but unspectacular player and who lasted for a surprisingly long time on the market before inking a one-year deal with Baltimore two months after free agency opened. Powers is much better in the slot than he is outside the hash marks, but the Ravens already have several other players who fit the same description in rookie Tavon Young and last-year’s free agent acquisition Kyle Arrington. It can never hurt to have too much depth, as the Ravens know all too well, and Arrington is widely considered to be a candidate for release in the coming months, so it would clear up the nickel corner picture a bit if he were to receive his walking papers. In any event, Baltimore will be relying on uncertain talent at the top two spots on its cornerback depth chart, with Jimmy Smith holding down one of those spots and Powers or Wright presumably manning the other. The addition of Weddle will make the rest of the secondary better, but it does not answer all of the questions the Ravens have in the defensive backfield.

Another of the team’s major free agent acquisitions was Mike Wallace, who is coming off a disappointing one-year stint in Minnesota. On paper, Wallace’s speed and big-play ability–which may have diminished some since his heyday in Pittsburgh but which could still be unlocked in in the right circumstances–look to be a perfect fit with Flacco’s cannon arm and penchant for the deep ball. Last season, the Ravens were counting on 2015 first-rounder Breshad Perriman to replace the speed element that the team’s offense lost when Torrey Smith took his talents to San Francisco, but Perriman was never able to recover after a knee injury suffered in training camp, and Flacco was left with Steve Smith and a plethora of underwhelming targets. Perriman’s health is once again up in the air, but with Wallace and rookie Chris Moore in the picture, Baltimore should be better-equipped to handle Perriman’s absence.

The third major free agent acquisition was Ben Watson, who will join a largely uncertain but potentially dynamic crop of tight ends. Watson, who will turn 36 in December, had a terrific year with the Saints in 2015, posting career bests in receptions (74) and receiving yards (825) while matching his career best in touchdowns (six). Dennis Pitta, who missed almost all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons, and who sat out the entire 2015 season, is attempting to come back from his second major hip injury, but given the nature of the injury and the amount of time he has spent on the shelf, it is difficult to say whether he will even crack the team’s roster, let alone return to his pre-2013 level of performance. Third-year player Crockett Gillmore and second-year Maxx Williams have shown flashes in their young careers, and both have a fair amount of upside (particularly Williams, the consensus top tight end in the 2015 draft), but they are still unproven as pass catchers. If nothing else, Watson is a reliable starter, and if Pitta can stay healthy and Gillmore and Williams continue to make strides, the Ravens will be forced to keep four tight ends on the roster for the first time in recent history. And that could be a good thing considering the fact that offensive coordinator Marc Trestman loves getting the ball to his tight ends and the age/question marks at wide receiver. Ben Watson (vertical)

Justin Tucker, meanwhile, signed his franchise tender and could still sign a long-term deal prior to the July 15 deadline, a deal that would most likely make him the highest-paid kicker in the league. He suffered something of a regression in 2015, posting a career-worst field goal percentage of 82.5%, but of his seven misses, six were from 50 yards and beyond, so it’s not as if he has suddenly lost his touch. Even if the two sides do not reach an agreement on a multi-year contract prior to July 15, Tucker will almost certainly remain in Baltimore for the foreseeable future.

Continue reading about the Ravens’ offseason…

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Impact Rookies: Buffalo Bills

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Buffalo Bills’ draft class:

There is a strange silence coming out of Bills camp – head coach Rex Ryan has yet to boast about his team’s Super Bowl prospects. The coach who thrives on positive thinking is spending the wee hours of the day huddled with his twin brother, Rob, hoping they can come up for a formula to improve their suspect run defense. Until they get that front wall operating on all cylinders, they can not even consider a postseason run with a unit that ranked 17th in the league in stopping the run (108.1 ypg), but allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Only seven other teams allowed opponents a higher mark. Rex Ryan

Additionally, their Rolls Royce-priced defensive line could not manage to get to the quarterback, as the only team to register fewer sacks that the Bills (21) were the Falcons (19). At least the Ryans shed the locker room of a high priced veteran who almost wrecked their salary cap in Mario Williams. The NFL’s version of the NBA’s Dwight Howard (I think I’m much better than anybody, so why go and prove it?) was dispatched to Miami, cutting a budget albatross that went to the bank to the tune of $19.4MM last year. He rewarded them with nineteen tackles and five sacks in fifteen starting assignments.

Williams was not the only front wall defender that should have felt somewhat feel embarrassed cashing a paycheck last year. Nose tackle Marcell Dareus recorded 51 tackles and got to the quarterback twice, earning an average of $16.1MM/year with $60MM guaranteed on a deal that runs through 2022. His projected running mate inside, Kyle Williams, garnered a $7.4MM dollar check for 14 tackles and one sack. The aging and injured veteran has a $4.5MM guarantee in the bank, but looms as a roster casualty in camp, especially with rookie Adolphus Washington showing the coaches more than enough to be listed with the first team on the depth chart entering training camp.

While Jerry Hughes tied Mario Williams for the team lead with five sacks in addition to making 52 tackles, it came with a price tag average of nine million with $22MM guaranteed through the 2020 season. Behind him, linebacker Manny Lawson secured three million from the Bills and found just one quarterback in the backfield last year. All told, the team saw eight defensive tackles take home ~16.33% of their cap in 2015. Only Jacksonville ($24,389,776; 16.34% of cap) doled out more money to their interior defenders in the NFL last year.

Their paltry pass rush only cost the team 6.97% of their cap to pay off their defensive ends (21st in the NFL) and their outside linebackers received just 3.18% of the team’s cap funds (31st in the league). You get what you pay for, my grandmother always told me. To rectify that problem, it looks like the Bills went for a long-term solution, but at a possible cost at receiving immediate dividends from their top draft choice in 2016.

Continue reading about the Bills’ rookie class..

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

2015 was a good year for the Jaguars on the offensive side of the ball, as quarterback Blake Bortles, running back T.J. Yeldon, and wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns showed they can be part of a core that could lift the club out of the AFC South basement. Unfortunately, Jacksonville’s defense didn’t make a similar leap, and the end result was a 5-11 record and another top-five draft pick. But with that draft choice and a bundle of cap space, the Jaguars had an opportunity to make headway this offseason.

Notable signings:

For the third consecutive year, the Jaguars and general manager Dave Caldwell were among the league leaders in available cap space, and for the third consecutive year, the club entered the free agent market with an aggressive plan. And for the third consecutive year, Jacksonville used its ample funds to target help along the defensive line.

After acquiring Red Bryant and Chris Clemons in 2014 and Jared Odrick in 2015, the Jaguars lured in former Broncos defensive lineman Malik Jackson, handing him the largest deal — in terms of total value — of the 2016 offseason. On its face, the Malik Jackson (vertical)contract looks like it certainly has a higher chance of success than either the Bryant or Clemons pacts. Bryant was nearing 30, and Clemons had already turned 32, when each signed with Jacksonville. Jackson, meanwhile, just turned 26 years old in January, so his deal should take him through the prime of his career.

Detractors would likely note that Jackson has only one season as a full-time starter under his belt, perhaps comparing him to offensive tackle Jermey Parnell, whom the Jags inked to a relatively large contract last offseason despite him only having seven career starts. But Jackson had been a heavily-used rotational lineman for Denver even before last season, playing on half the Broncos’ snaps in both 2013 and 2014 before seeing that percentage jump to about 75% in 2015.

And Jackson has also been quite good. He posted 5.5 sacks last year, a solid figure for a 3-4 defensive end, and earned the seventh-highest pass rush grade among interior rushers, according to Pro Football Focus, which also assigned him positive marks against the run. Jackson will move inside to defensive tackle in Jacksonville’s 4-3 scheme, lining up at the three-technique next to Roy Miller, Odrick, and 2015 first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr., who has yet to play an NFL down after tearing his ACL last summer. Head coach Gus Bradley, a former Seahawks defensive coordinator, is likely hoping Jackson can become the Jaguars’ version of Michael Bennett.

Jacksonville didn’t stop trying to improve its defense after inking Jackson, and it shouldn’t have, as the unit hasn’t ranked better than 20th in defensive DVOA during Bradley’s three-year tenure (and actually regressed to 26th last season). The club was especially poor against the pass — 28th in yards allowed through the air, 31st in passing defense DVOA — so after signing cornerback Davon House last offseason, Jacksonville brought in former Browns safety Tashaun Gipson, giving him a five-year deal to roam center field.Tashaun Gipson

The Jaguars’ 2015 safety crop was possibly the worst in the entire NFL last season, as Jonathan Cyprien, Josh Evans, and Sergio Brown were all incredibly unproductive. Brown has since been released, and while Cyprien will compete with James Sample for a starting job, Gipson will bring an air of respectability to the Jacksonville secondary. One of the more effective defensive playmakers in the league, the 25-year-old Gipson ranks third in interceptions among safeties since 2013, the year he became a full-time starter.

Elsewhere in the defensive backfield, the Jaguars added former Giants corner Prince Amukamara, inking him to a one-year deal that contains less than $2MM guaranteed. Although it may seem as though as he’s been in the league forever, Amukamara is still only 27 years old, and he’s expected to man the slot while Aaron Colvin serves a four-game suspension. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Amukamara ends up holding down the job for the entire season, or eventually takes over for House on the outside.

Ryan Davis and Abry Jones will return to northern Florida after being assigned second-round restricted free agent tenders, and the pair will add to what is quickly becoming an above-average defensive line rotation. Davis, 27, is the better player, having posted 10 sacks during the past two seasons despite limited playing time. Jones, meanwhile, isn’t a lock to make the Jags’ 53-man roster given all the team’s options on the interior, and his $2.553MM salary is not guaranteed. Jacksonville also added former first-round defensive end Bjoern Werner on a risk-free deal, hoping to capitalize on the upside that led the Colts to take the Florida State alum with the 24th overall pick in 2013.

On offense, the Jaguars signed former Steelers left tackle Kelvin Beachum to one of the more creative free agent deals signed this offseason. The club will pay Beachum only $1.5MM in guarantees in 2016, before being forced to decide on a $5MM option bonus Kelvin Beachumthat would lock in the rest of the contract (and $13MM in guaranteed money). If Beachum stays healthy and plays well during the upcoming season, Jacksonville would presumably be more than willing to pick up the rest of the deal, which would only average $9MM annually.

Of course, Beachum’s health is no sure thing, as the reason he was forced to agree to such a unique deal was an ACL injury wiped out most of his 2016 season. Recent reports have been positive, as Caldwell recently told reporters there’s a “very high percentage” chance that Beachum will be ready for the start of training camp. If and when he does get back on the field, Beachum isn’t expected to be placed in a competition for the left tackle job with former No. 2 overall pick Luke JoeckelBeachum, rather, will simply be handed the job, with Joeckel possibly moving to guard.

If Joeckel does lock down the left guard position, then free agent addition Mackenzy Bernadeau will act as the Jacksonville’s top reserve along the interior offensive line. With 49 career starts under his belt, Bernadeau, 30, is more experienced than any member of the Jaguars’ projected starting front five. He’s also extremely versatile, as he boasts starts at three positions — 40 at left guard, seven at right guard, and two at center.

Among the skill positions, the only major new face who will be present at Jaguars’ training camp in a few weeks is running back Chris Ivory, lured away from the Jets Chris Ivorywith a five-year, $32MM deal. A bruising runner, Ivory finally managed to stay healthy for most of last season and posted the best campaign of his career, rushing for than 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns while also managing a career-high 30 receptions. He’ll team with last year’s second-round pick T.J. Yeldon, but after inking a contract that contains $10MM in guarantees, it’s hard to imagine that Ivory won’t see the majority of carries. At the very least, he should get into the end zone often as the team’s go-to back near the goal line.

Veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis and quarterback Chad Henne both re-signed with Jacksonville, but neither should have a large role next year if all goes to according to plan. Lewis actually outpaced Julius Thomas snap-wise in 2015 as the latter dealt with injury concerns, but Henne didn’t see a single snap in relief of Blake Bortles. Lewis could act as the in-line, blocking tight end while Thomas acts as the move option next season, but obviously something will have gone terribly wrong if either he or Henne are forced to step in for serious amounts of time.

Continue reading about the Jaguars’ offseason…

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Impact Rookies: New England Patriots

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the New England Patriots’ draft class:

In a tradition started by Jimmy Johnson during his days with Dallas, lots of NFL teams use what is called a draft “value board” in their war rooms. Based on the selections made by the coaching genius of Bill Belichick, analysts might be scratching their heads over the Patriots’ decisions during this past draft.

Deflategate left the team with no choice in the opening round, but in what has been Belichick’s pattern over the years, he put on his “Trader Jack” hat before and during the draft proceedings in attempts to improve his roster. In mid-March, the team made a surprising move, trading away one of the defense’s cornerstones in Chandler Jones for oft-injured offensive guard Jonathan Cooper and a second-round draft pick.

The Patriots flipped that No. 61 overall pick to the Saints, netting the Saints’ third (No. 78) and fourth-round (No. 112) selections. Even with Cooper in the fold and starters Shaquille Mason (left side) and Tre’ Jackson (right) stationed as the starters, New England added to their guard cache in the third round by taking North Carolina State’s Joe Thuney. Thuney is likely to caddy for Shaquille Mason on the left side and while he could prove to be a reliable backup, he’s not likely to make waves in 2016. However, we do see these two Pats rookies leaving a mark in their first NFL season:

Continue reading about the Patriots’ rookie class..

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Offseason In Review: Kansas City Chiefs

In an offseason with some landmark signings and departures in the AFC West, the Chiefs wound up being the group’s steadiest franchise, opting instead to mostly to keep their core together. After ascending past the first round of the AFC playoff bracket for the first time since the 1993 season, Kansas City stands to return most of its starting lineup this year.

Exactly how good are the Chiefs? That’s a little tough to figure out since the team suffered many of its losses to quality opposition and saw most of its wins come against substandard opposition or quality teams that happened to be depleted at quarterback. The organization has done well to return to the position of an annual postseason contender, but how much further can this group carry this franchise as presently constructed in a division that features the defending Super Bowl champions and a potentially resurgent Raiders team?

Notable signings:

The Chiefs entered the offseason with half of their starting defense bound for the UFA market, but they’ll now head into the season with ten starters back from last season’s No. 7-ranked defense. In a continued effort to keep a core together that’s been responsible for the franchise securing two playoff berths in a three-season span for the first time since the 1990s, Kansas City brought back Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Jaye Howard, and Eric Berry. 

After his heroic recovery from cancer, Berry delivered one of his finest seasons to date. The former No. 5 overall pick’s return to full-time status coincided with the Chiefs becoming only the second 1-5 team since the merger to make the playoffs, and Berry blazed to his second All-Pro honor while securing comeback player of the year acclaim.

Berry is viewed as the face of the Chiefs, an organization that has strived for stability since John Dorsey and Andy Reid took over. Because of that, many have expected Berry’s contract to be completed by the July 15 deadline. Kansas City reached a deal on July 15 of last year to make Justin Houston the highest-paid linebacker ever, so despite an offseason where little has emerged from these talks, the 27-year-old Berry is a good bet to be signed. Using Harrison Smith‘s five-year, $51.25MM Vikings extension — one that contains $15.28MM fully guaranteed and averages $10.25MM per year — as a primer should make this pact simpler than Houston’s to negotiate.

The other re-signings should give the Chiefs a good chance at again being a top-10 defense, but the team is now heavily committed financially to two linebackers who will be firmly in their mid-30s by the time their three-year contracts end. The Chiefs picked Dee Ford two years ago in the first round despite Hali and Houston residing in their primes, doing so with the presumed intent to plug in the ex-Auburn edge defender into Hali’s spot once his contract expired. However, Ford has not proven to be up to the task to this point, and Houston’s ACL surgery further clouded the Chiefs’ pass-rushing situation. These factors led to bringing Hali back.

While the 32-year-old lifetime Chief had another Pro Bowl season, Hali’s sack numbers continued to dwindle. He notched 6.5 last season after a six-sack 2014. The 2006 first-round pick finished with at least nine during the previous four slates, and he spent his 10th NFL season battling knee injuries. Committing three years — two are essentially guaranteed — and $21MM to Hali prevented the Chiefs from either attempting to retain Sean Smith or adding a veteran cornerback to help compensate for his defection.

Hali still resides as a quality player, but both he and Ford being employed in K.C. this season shows somewhat of a planning failure. The Chiefs’ clogged 2017 payroll, once cap numbers for the extended veterans balloon, illustrates this.

Set to turn 34 this season, Johnson remains one of the NFL’s top inside linebackers. He’s obviously nearing the finish line, but the identical three-year, $21MM deal fell in line with similar accords given to aging non-rush ‘backers in recent years. Karlos Dansby‘s Browns deal and David Harris‘ Jets pact laid the groundwork for a third Chiefs-Johnson agreement. Johnson’s outplayed both and returned from a 2014-erasing Achilles injury to enhance Kansas City’s run defense. The Chiefs going from 28th to eighth in that span included Johnson as the key variable, and he has a good chance of remaining productive for at least the largely guaranteed portion of his deal — 2016-17.

Kansas City also faced the prospect of losing Howard, but the emerging defensive end’s market didn’t price him out of Missouri. As a result, the Chiefs brought the 27-year-old starter back on a deal hat looks like a team-friendly accord after Howard enjoyed a breakout season. His contract is similar to fellow starting end Allen Bailey‘s 2015 re-up (four years, $25MM). This is the best trio of defensive linemen the Chiefs have housed since they moved to a 3-4 in 2009, and the Howard pact keeps it intact for another year.

Retention represented the theme of the Chiefs’ offseason, but their biggest upgrade came at one of their more troublesome modern-day spots. Mitchell Schwartz will fill a gaping hole at right tackle after becoming one of the best right-edge blockers in football during his latter Browns seasons. The Chiefs haven’t deployed a consistent option at right tackle since the early 2000s, with those famed lines featuring John Tait prior to his 2004 exit.

Schwartz, whose older brother Geoff Schwartz spent time at right tackle for the 2013 Chiefs, rated as Pro Football Focus’ No. 7 tackle last season and No. 2 right tackle. He’ll help fortify an edge that contributed to Alex Smith being sacked a career-high 45 times in each of the past two years. Kansas City will now boast above-average options at both tackle spots and center, with Mitch Morse impressing as a rookie and Eric Fisher improving, after not trotting out many players who could have qualified for that distinction over the past two seasons.

Continue reading about the Chiefs’ offseason…

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Offseason In Review: Arizona Cardinals

After eking out a victory in one of the most memorable postseason contests in some time, the Cardinals advanced to the NFC Championship Game — and proceeded to get stomped. But most of the core of a team that finished last season with a 13-3 record, and Arizona also made a few additions through free agent signings, draft picks, and one notable trade.

Notable signings:

The Cardinals already possessed an excellent offensive line, having ranked third in adjusted line yards and fifth in adjusted sack rate — both Football Outsiders metrics — in 2015. That front five has the potential to be even better this season, as the club inked former Eagles and Broncos guard Evan Mathis to a one-year deal. Any contract that Evan Mathis (Vertical)only spans a single season is typically considered a relatively risk-free endeavor, but Mathis’ pact is especially favorable for Arizona.

Despite the fact that Mathis ranked as the third-best guard in the league last season (and posted the NFL’s best grade in the run game) according to Pro Football Focus, he’ll earn just over $4MM in 2016. For reference, that salary is in line with the scheduled earnings of the likes of Shawn Lauvao and Zane Beadles, both of whom are inferior to Mathis. Though he’s entering his age-35 season, Mathis is still one of the most effective guards in football, and this deal can be deemed a win.

Mathis will be blocking for a Cardinals running back group that includes not only David Johnson and Andre Ellington, but veteran Chris Johnson, who agreed to a one-year contract worth $1.5MM. Johnson garnered interest from both the Dolphins and Patriots before re-signing with Arizona, and reportedly turned down more money elsewhere to return to the desert.Chris Johnson

Given that he did have offers from other clubs, it’s a tad surprising that Johnson ended up returning to the Cardinals, if only because he could have presumably gotten more playing time elsewhere (especially in Miami). Though some reports have hinted otherwise, Johnson figures to be the clear-cut No. 2 option on the Arizona depth chart, and it will take an injury for him to approach his 196-carry total from last season. Still, Johnson claimed that his “heart was in Arizona,” so the Cardinals’ culture and locker room evidently sold him more than straight cash.

Along the same lines, tight end Jermaine Gresham also asserted he took less money to reunite with the Cardinals. Gresham said he had offers from both the Bears and Jets, including one four-year, $23MM deal that included $12MM in guarantees. Of course, we’re taking Gresham’s word that he had those offers in hand, and we can’t know the exact structure of the rejected contracts. But it seems apparent that players are willing to join (or stay with) Arizona for less money, either in the hopes of winning a championship or because of the club’s strong clubhouse (or both).

Gresham, 28, has never quite lived up to his first-round draft status, and given the weapons available to quarterback Carson Palmer, Gresham probably won’t ever again come close to his career-high in receiving yards (737). But he’s an able and willing blocker, especially in the run game, and for the cost of $3.5MM, he’s a bargain as Arizona’s second tight end behind Darren Fells.

Quarterback Drew Stanton will also return to the Cardinals, agreeing to a two-year deal worth $6.5MM to once again serve as Palmer’s backup. The accord provides a healthy amount of upside for Stanton — who apparently drew interest from the Colts, Titans, Dolphins, and Cowboys — as it contains $8.7MM in available incentives. If Palmer were to suffer another major injury (he’s already undergone two ACL surgeries during his career), Stanton would be well-compensated as the next man up. Arizona, additionally, is reportedly viewing Stanton as a possible successor to Palmer Tyvon Branch (vertical)when he eventually hangs up his cleats.

On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona’s only major free agent addition was safety Tyvon Branch, who resurrected his career with the Chiefs last season following an injury-marred end to his tenure with the Raiders. The Cardinals value versatility in their secondary, and Branch, who can play both safety positions and nickel corner, will help the defensive backfield make up for the loss of Tyrann Mathieu if he’s forced to miss any time after tearing his ACL last season.

Like Branch, safety Tony Jefferson will see expanded playing time if Mathieu is absent early in the season, and he could emerge as a full-time player after signing his restricted free agent tender over the offseason. The Cardinals placed the lowest tender on Jefferson, meaning he could have signed an offer sheet with another club and left without Arizona receiving compensation. The Raiders and Texans did express interest in signing Jefferson, and the 24-year-old admitted that he came close to inking a deal with a new team.

The Cardinals also brought back two veterans who recently spent time with the organization, re-signing defensive back Chris Clemons and defensive lineman Red Bryant to minimum salary benefit contracts. The “defensive back” title is a little misleading in the case of Clemons, as he’ll reportedly back up Deone Bucannon at dime linebacker. Bryant, as anyone who’s watched Amazon’s All or Nothing series knows, was simply overjoyed to return to an NFL field last season, and will provide depth on the defensive line once again.

Continue reading about the Cardinals’ offseason…

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Impact Rookies: New York Jets

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the New York Jets’ draft class:

It has been a strange off-season for the Jets, as they seem to be taking a disregard to their recent past, holding the contract line firmly on 2015 starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and one of the best defensive linemen in the game in Muhammad Wilkerson. They failed to impress with their “temporary” solution to the Fitzpatrick stand-off by using their second-round draft pick to snatch Penn State erratic signal-caller, Christian Hackenberg.

Even if Fitzpatrick had signed, the Jets were going to look at addressing their future at quarterback anyway, as their starter in 2015 has had a journeyman’s like career to date. Still, they fail to impress Jets fans with the addition of Hackenberg, if it means that Fitzpatrick will turn into a training camp stalemate. They can’t be serious about turning the reins over to Geno Smith, could they?

Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has been talking up Smith, citing his maturity, but his obvious lack of leadership skills (see last season’s locker room debacle) and marginal performances to date makes Jets faithful hope that Gailey can create magic in the huddle this season. One option not talked about often is the development of 2015 third round pick, Bryce Petty. Still, like Hackenberg, he is still unproven at the professional level, leaving the Jets to ponder if they want to risk a season as a playoff observer or come to some kind of solution with the Fitzpatrick situation.

While the Jets did not address their quarterback situation in the way that many fans would have liked, they did pick up some interesting talents at other positions in this year’s draft.

First Round – Darron Lee, LB (Ohio State, No. 20 overall)

It is not etched in stone where Lee will line up for the Jets, but hailed by The NFL Draft Report the “best defensive playmaker in the 2016 draft,” the Jets are certain to find a role quickly for their first round pick. For now, he’s listed behind Erin Henderson at right inside linebacker. Beyond that, veteran and inside starter David Harris might be looking for employment elsewhere in 2017, if Lee progresses as quickly as expected. Darron Lee (vertical)

Henderson moves into the lineup, at least temporarily, after the Jets let Demario Davis leave in free agency despite finishing second on the team with 90 tackles last year. Still, it will not be long before he cedes playing time to Lee. Another player greatly affected by Lee’s arrival is San Francisco cast-off, Bruce Carter, who was brought in to play the nickel package. With Lee’s cornerback-like speed, Carter will have to sit while Lee performs in that alignment.

Some draft analysts stated that Lee was a “work in progress” and “did not excite” in 2015 like he did in 2014 during the Buckeyes’ national championship march. Unknown to many scouts, at the time, but Lee was playing with a lower leg injury during the first half of his sophomore campaign. With several Buckeyes suspended earlier in the year, the strong-side linebacker felt that even on one leg, he needed to be out on the field.

Lee recovered just in time – for the late season tough part of the schedule. He recorded at least seven tackles with one stop behind the line of scrimmage and one quarterback pressure in each of his final four appearances. While he delivered 66 tackles (36 solos) for his final season at Ohio State, it is how he compiled those statistics that were even more impressive.

On 53 plays he made vs. the running game, Lee limited his opponents to an average gain of a minuscule 0.68 yards per attempt. The longest gain vs. the linebacker was a 9-yard scamper. He delivered eleven crunching third-down stops and another on a fourth-down play vs. those ball carriers, posting fourteen of those tackles inside the red zone, including four on goal-line stands. In addition to taking down thirteen runners for losses, ten more were tackled at the line of scrimmage for no gain. He also made five touchdown-saving tackles after runners broke free from other Ohio State defenders in 2015.

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Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

Arguably the least talented of the Broncos’ four Peyton Manning-era teams, the 2015 iteration allowed the franchise to collect its third Super Bowl title, and the 2016 version will prepare to defend it in interesting fashion. Denver not only lost its starting quarterback of the past four years but allowed his backup to exit as well, creating a strange scenario for a defending Super Bowl champion.

The Broncos’ quarterback quagmire notwithstanding, they still will probably return nine starters from their No. 1 defense and remain one of the AFC’s favorites. Whereas many once thought Manning’s retirement would double as the end of Denver’s championship window, the team’s dominant defense looks to keep it pried open. But has Denver gambled too much at the game’s most important position to make a realistic title defense?

Notable signings:

The latest in the Broncos’ steady line of franchise tag impasses has predictably been the team’s most complex battle, with Miller having turned down a six-year, $114.5MM deal that would make him the league’s highest-paid defender. His negotiation takes on a much more seminal essence than John Elway‘s previous midsummer value debates. Miller’s team does not feel the full guarantees included in Denver’s initial proposal were sufficient given what Ndamukong Suh and now Fletcher Cox received. Cox’s Eagles deal doesn’t contain more guaranteed cash at signing but includes nearly $60MM in full guarantees within nine months, essentially tethering the defensive tackle to Philadelphia’s payroll for the next three seasons.

However, the Broncos have increased their efforts to retain Miller by Friday’s deadline, pushing more guaranteed money toward the former No. 2 overall pick within the first nine months of the prospective deal. Miller’s camp has not accepted or rejected these new terms, and either way, a resolution is coming this week.

Miller’s options remain the same, realistically speaking: sign a long-term deal by July 15, or play 2016 on the exclusive franchise tag. The 27-year-old pass-rusher has threatened to hold out, refusing to play the season on the tag, but would miss out on $14MM+ if he sat out the season. However, he may need to keep up this threat since the Broncos aren’t negotiating against any other team like the Dolphins were with Suh or Giants with Olivier Vernon.

The Broncos have received an incredible bargain from Miller. In his initial five seasons with the Broncos, Miller earned barely half of what Suh raked in ($60MM) in his five Lions years after being drafted No. 2 overall under the old CBA.

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