December 27th, 2022 at 12:57pm CST by Adam La Rose
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, much is still to be decided both in terms of playoff positioning and the order of the upcoming draft. Five teams are still eligible to land the top pick.
The Texans remain in pole position to hold the No. 1 spot, but their win over the Titans (coupled with the Bears’ losing streak extending to eight games) leaves Chicago just a half-game away. The fact that the Bears would likely select a defensive player rather than a quarterback with the top pick adds considerable intrigue to the potential implications of them ending up with that slot.
With the Browns continuing to struggle even with Deshaun Watson back from suspension, there is a distinct possibility that four first-rounders which changed hands (including Cleveland’s top 2023 pick, part of the package they sent to Houston for Watson) land in the top 10. Another premium selection would obviously soften the blow of losing out on the No. 1 spot from the Texans’ perspective, should that take place.
The final Wild Card spot in each conference is still being contested by several teams, resulting in a logjam of 7-8 squads in the middle of the order. Several head-to-head matchups will be played out between those clubs, which could lead to plenty of change in their positioning over the next two weeks. The race for both the AFC and NFC South titles will also have a significant impact on the final order, given the average (at best) record each division’s winner will have at the end of the regular season.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 17:
Houston Texans: 2-12-1
Chicago Bears: 3-12
Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
Arizona Cardinals: 4-11
Indianapolis Colts: 4-10-1
Atlanta Falcons: 5-10
Detroit Lions (via Rams)
Carolina Panthers: 6-9
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-9
Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
Houston Texans (via Browns)
Seattle Seahawks: 7-8
Tennessee Titans: 7-8
New England Patriots: 7-8
New York Jets: 7-8
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-8
Green Bay Packers: 7-8
Detroit Lions: 7-8
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-8
Washington Commanders: 7-7-1
New York Giants: 8-6-1
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-6
Baltimore Ravens: 10-5
Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
Dallas Cowboys: 11-4
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-3
Minnesota Vikings: 12-3
Buffalo Bills: 12-3
Philadelphia Eagles: 13-2
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Paytontampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice
December 26th, 2022 at 10:32am CST by Adam La Rose
Tampa Bay earned a come-from-behind, overtime win last night to maintain their lead atop the NFC South. The Buccaneers lost another member of their offensive line for the remainder of the season in the process, however.
Swing tackle Josh Wellssuffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee and is out for the year, reports Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter). He was carted off the field after just 16 snaps yesterday, and was quickly ruled out by the team. That invited speculation that a major injury had occurred, and today’s news confirms that Tampa’s o-line has been dealt another blow.
Wells, 31, was set to make his fourth consecutive start in place of an injured starter at tackle on Sunday, having filled in for Tristan Wirfsthe previous three weeks. The latter returned for Week 16, but blindside protector Donovan Smithwas unable to play, requiring Wells to shift to the left tackle spot. Wells had already logged the most snaps in a season of his four-year tenure with the Buccaneers (310) prior to suffering the injury.
The former UDFA has made 56 total appearances in Tampa Bay since signing there in 2019. His experience filling in when needed and familiarity with the organization led to a fourth consecutive one-year deal this offseason. The injuries to Wirfs, and then Smith, highlighted his importance despite logging an overall snap share of only 41% on the year. Wells’ PFF grade for 2022 (67.8) was the second-highest of his career, behind only the rating from his rookie campaign in Jacksonville.
This news adds further to the tumult Tampa Bay has endured with respect to their offensive line this season. Both starting guard spots needed replacing with the retirement of Ali Marpetand the free agent departure of Alex Cappa. That was followed by center Ryan Jensengoing down with what is expected to be a season-ending injury of his own. The unit’s availability issues – which included Wells being placed on IR in September – have contributed to Tampa’s inconsistency on offense, which has seen the team rank last in rushing production.
If Smith (whom head coach Todd Bowles recently considered benching for performance reasons) is unable to suit up in Week 17, Tampa will likely turn to undrafted rookie Brandon Walton to fill in for him. The latter played 65 snaps in relief of Wells after he went down, and could have a significant role to play in the closing weeks of the season.
Injuries continue to hamper the Rams in the final stretch of the season. News earlier this week confirmed that calf strains to center Brian Allen and wide receiver Ben Skowronek “are severe enough to sideline them for the rest of the season,” according to team staff writer Stu Jackson. That leaves Los Angeles down two more starters as the Super Bowl hangover continues.
Allen has had a disappointing season, health-wise. After missing five weeks while dealing with a knee injury early on in the year, then two more with a thumb issue, the calf strain has finally put an end to Allen’s tumultuous 2022 season. Starting guard Coleman Shelton, who has plenty of past experience at center, moved inside when Allen left last week’s game and will continue to start at center for the remainder of the season. To replace Shelton at right guard, the team will choose between backup linemen Bobby Evans, Oday Aboushi, and Zach Thomas.
Not that there was much damage left to do to the battle-worn Rams, but Skowronek is yet another damaging loss to the team. With starting receivers Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson already on injured reserve, Skowronek was Los Angeles’s leading wideout still on the active roster. With the former Notre Dame tight end joining Kupp and Robinson as out for the remainder of the year, quarterback Baker Mayfield will be passing to Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Brandon Powell, Austin Trammell, and Lance McCutcheon.
Allen and Skowronek add their names to the litany of Rams’ starters who have gone down for the year. Here are a few other injury rumors from around the NFC, focusing on a couple teams in the South:
Saints starting guard Andrus Peat left Saturday’s win over the Browns with an ankle injury and did not return. Peat is no stranger to injuries, having struggled with them throughout his NFL career. His absence, though, puts New Orleans in a tough spot as it succeeded in remaining in the NFC South race with Saturday’s victory. Already down starting right guard Cesar Ruiz, who is out for the year with a Lisfranc injury, the Saints are having to put together a patchwork offensive line. Peat’s usual backup, Calvin Throckmorton, started the game in place of Ruiz. With backup guard Lewis Kidd inactive, New Orleans had to turn to Josh Andrews, a practice squad center who had been a gameday elevation. The severity of the injury has yet to be determined, but an extended absence from Peat would make it even more difficult for the Saints to clinch a playoff spot down the stretch.
The Buccaneersruled out three starters for today’s matchup with the Cardinals, according to Greg Auman of FOX Sports. Starting tackle Donovan Smith, defensive tackle Vita Vea, and cornerback Jamel Dean have all been ruled out, as has outside linebacker Carl Nassib. With the bad news comes the good news that Tampa Bay’s other starting tackle Tristan Wirfs is expected to play today. Backup tackle Josh Wells, who was also questionable coming into this week, will likely start in place of Smith. Vea’s role should be filled by Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Dean will likely be replaced by a combination of Sean Murphy-Bunting, Dee Delaney, and Zyon McCollum.
Following the Saturday slate of games, we still have four more games this week. Here are the minor moves leading up to the three Sunday games on Christmas Day:
Murphy has missed the last five games for the Cardinals while dealing with a back issue, so while it’s not necessarily a further setback for Arizona, the transaction indicates that Murphy will miss the rest of the season before going into free agency. With Murphy absent, the Cardinals have started veteran Antonio Hamilton across from Marco Wilson.
When Rob Gronkowski retired for a second time, many suspected the June transaction would also lead to another temporary step away from football. The future Hall of Fame tight end made an effort to postpone his Canton timeline again recently.
Gronkowski, 33, contacted the Buccaneers about unretiring last month, and Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports the team and the two-year Buccaneer engaged in several conversations about a potential return. The Bucs both gave Gronk an option of returning on the active roster or the practice squad, the latter in the increasingly popular ramp-up scenario, per Stroud.
While the 11-year veteran said he had been working out on his own and cited boredom with not playing football — a prediction that was not too difficult to make given his past — he will remain retired at this point. Gronk had said in July he was done, and a September report also indicated he was staying retired. Now? The door appears slightly ajar to another return.
“It was more of a conversation than anything else,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said, via Stroud. “Usually, when you have to think about playing, you probably don’t want to play. When it’s just a discussion, I didn’t think much of it at the time.”
The Bucs’ offense could certainly use all the help available. It has dropped from second in scoring in 2021 to 28th this year, falling from 30.1 points per game to 17.6. Tom Brady‘s QBR has plummeted outside the top 20, this coming after he led the league in touchdown passes and passing yards last season — en route to second-team All-Pro honors. Brady’s QBR figure is his worst in the 17-season QBR era, and his timing with wideouts — particularly Mike Evans — has been off.
Tampa Bay has not effectively replaced Gronkowski, who totaled 802 receiving yards — his most since 2017 — last season. Gronk’s first unretirement, which keyed a 2020 trade with the Patriots, played a significant role in the Bucs claiming their second Super Bowl title two years ago. Injury issues led to his 2019 exit, and the four-time All-Pro pass catcher did miss five games due to injuries — fractured ribs and a punctured lung — last season. The All-Decade performer remained one of the league’s best tight ends, however, and has proven impossible to replace.
Although longtime Bucs tight end Cameron Brate remains on the roster, a scary concussion scene paused his season. Brate has been limited to nine games. Rookie Cade Otton leads Bucs tight ends with 357 receiving yards. Brady’s QBR dipped during Gronk’s first retirement as well, and while Evans and Chris Godwin helped reinvigorate the all-time great, Brady’s longtime go-to weapon played a lead role in doing so as well.
News of Gronk’s unretirement attempt does come not long after he said Brady’s best place next season may be with him at FOX. Should Brady retire, he has a 10-year FOX agreement waiting for him. This latest Gronk-NFL connection, however, keeps the door on his own career. Gronk has said at points he only wishes to team up with Brady, though he was connected to the Bengals and Bills this offseason. With the 23rd-year veteran open to playing in 2023 and unlikely to re-sign with the Bucs if he does decide to stay in the NFL, Gronk — even ahead of what would be his age-34 season — could be an interesting variable in 2023’s free agent market.
One of this season’s most disappointing teams, the Buccaneers still have a chance to host a playoff game. But their Tom Brady partnership may be nearing an end. The all-time great is viewed as more likely than not to be elsewhere in 2023.
This would open the door to either an unusual free agency or a second retirement. Winding down his age-45 season, Brady will likely not be sought after on the level he was in 2020. His career-low QBR (since the stat’s 2006 introduction, at least), lowest yards per attempt figure since 2002 (6.3) and age will undoubtedly give teams pause. But if the 15-time Pro Bowler wants to keep pushing the quarterback age boundary — a recently discussed scenario — there stands to be a market.
It still makes sense to include the 49ers here. They passed on a true pursuit in 2020, when Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off a season in which he piloted the team to Super Bowl LIV, but Brady was loosely linked to seeking a move to his native Bay Area during his mini-retirement this offseason. The Bucs shut down the prospect of trading Brady’s rights anywhere. San Francisco has an again-injured Garoppolo tied to a restructured deal that prevents a franchise tag — a similar arrangement to Brady, who also cannot be tagged thanks to his 2022 restructure — and Trey Lance will enter 2023 having only played one full season in his five post-high school years. The 49ers boast a rare skill-position trio that includes three All-Pros, and their situation could open the door to Lance spending a year learning behind arguably the greatest to ever do it.
Josh McDaniels looks like he will make it to a second Raiders season, even though his first has not gone as hoped. McDaniels taking over as Patriots OC led to Brady morphing from a promising young quarterback to a superstar, and he was Brady’s OC for 11 years. The Raiders have a narrow window to tradeDerek Carr, who will see $40.5MM guaranteed on Day 3 of the 2023 league year. A Carr-Davante Adams breakup might not go over well among the longtime friends, but McDaniels and fellow ex-Patriots staffer Dave Ziegler are calling the shots. The Raiders pursued Brady in 2020, and he famously had a spirited reaction to the then-Jon Gruden-led team backing off.
Tua Tagovailoa has a rather vocal cast of supporters, and the Dolphins did just pay a stiff penalty for attempting to bring Brady and Sean Payton to town. Payton seems out of the question now, with Mike McDaniel faring well in his first year, and Tagovailoa still sits second in QBR. The Dolphins have one of the great speed-receiver duos in NFL history, and vice chairman Bruce Beal is on the TB12 board. Though, Beal’s central role in the tampering scandal is believed to have affected his standing with the team. Would Stephen Ross try to land one of the assets that ultimately cost a first-round pick?
While it would look quite strange to see Brady with the Jets, they have both young weaponry and a vastly improved defense. That combination wooed Brady to Tampa. Timeline-wise, the Jets mirror the 49ers at the QB position. They roster the passer taken one spot ahead of Lance (Zach Wilson), though the Jets have more intel on their top-three QB pick than the Niners do theirs. Mike White is a free agent at season’s end, and the team is already being connected to veteran options — Garoppolo and Carr among them. Brady probably should be at least mentioned here.
Brady and Mike Vrabel played together for nine seasons, and the Titans were part of the free agency derby two years ago. They bowed out before it ultimately came down to a Bucs-or-Chargers call, and Ryan Tannehill has one season remaining on the extension the Titans gave him shortly after their Brady pursuit ended. The Titans cannot match the above-referenced teams for weaponry, however.
Bill Belichick did not exactly equip Mac Jones for a second-year leap, naming a career defensive coach (Matt Patricia) as de facto OC. Jones has regressed in Year 2, and there was a brief QB controversy with fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe. Uncertainty about the 2021 first-rounder’s long-term standing has entered the equation. If LeBron James could return to Cleveland, Brady rejoining Belichick and Robert Kraft for a farewell season should at least be floated. Brady and Kraft remain close, as evidenced by the Bucs QB traveling to the Patriots owner’s wedding during a Bucs road trip earlier this season. But the Patriots would need to get to work on receiving help. They almost certainly would not be the favorites if Brady decided to play a 24th season.
Reports of friction between Brady and Bruce Arians and Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have emerged over the past two seasons. Arians’ exit has undoubtedly affected this Bucs iteration, which has dealt with issues along its offensive line throughout the year as well. But the Bucs have fallen from the second-ranked scoring offense in 2021 — a season in which Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yards and 43 TDs — to 28th. The Bucs’ chances at winning a terrible NFC South aside, they may soon face the prospect of the Brady bill coming due. The Bucs not re-signing Brady before his contract expires in March would mean a $35.1MM dead-money hit due to the void years on his deal.
Brady is the only 45-year-old starting QB in NFL history, and retirement was believed to be the direction he would go at this season’s outset. As he plays out a down season, there will be more calls for a true retirement this time. A 10-year deal to be FOX’s lead analyst awaits.
As this offseason showed, teams are more willing to follow through with big QB swings. Complex QB offseasons have been the 2020s norm. More teams could potentially enter the mix, if they are convinced Brady’s struggles this year can be attributed more to his circumstances and less on a decline. Unless Brady calls it quits immediately after this season, the topic of his 2023 employer will gain steam. How will it end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this oft-discussed player in the comments section.
December 21st, 2022 at 10:18am CST by Sam Robinson
Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.
At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.
The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:
Houston Texans: 1-12-1
Chicago Bears: 3-11
Detroit Lions (via Rams)
Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
Carolina Panthers: 5-9
Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
Houston Texans (via Browns)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
Green Bay Packers: 6-8
Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
New England Patriots: 7-7
New York Jets: 7-7
Detroit Lions: 7-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
Tennessee Titans: 7-7
Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
New York Giants: 8-5-1
Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
Buffalo Bills: 11-3
Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Paytontampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.
The Buccaneers’ O-line, which has seen a great deal of upheaval since February, almost got another shakeup. Per ESPN’s Jenna Laine, Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles recently considered benching left tackle Donovan Smith, though for the time being, Smith will retain his starting job (Twitter link).
Smith, who missed two games earlier this season with a hyperextended elbow, has been charged with six penalties in the last three games, and his 11 total penalties this season is the most in the league. That, along with generally underwhelming performance — Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics rank Smith 65th out of 77 qualifying tackles — is what prompted Bowles to consider the demotion.
Quarterback Tom Brady‘s quick trigger in 2022 and his poor 6.2 yards-per-attempt rate may be a function of his lack of confidence in his line, which is also having a hard time opening holes for the team’s running backs (Tampa Bay’s RBs are averaging 3.3 yards per carry, the worst rate in the league). PFF actually gives Smith a solid 68.8 score in pass protection but an awful 39.4 grade as a run blocker, the worst mark among his OT peers.
Unfortunately for Bowles, he doesn’t have any options that would be obvious upgrades. Brandon Walton and Josh Wells filled in for Smith during the latter’s early-season absence, but Walton is a 2020 UDFA who finally earned his first regular season snaps this year, and Wells is a swingman who is needed at RT while Wirfs is unable to play.
Smith, 29, has been Tampa Bay’s starting left tackle since entering the league as a second-round draft choice in 2015, and while he has never earned a Pro Bowl nod, his durability and average-to-above-average play at a premium position have allowed him to land multiple contracts with the Bucs. His current deal runs through next year, and his 2023 salary of $15.3MM is a fair one for a left tackle with his level of experience and who is young enough to return to the form he displayed over the past several seasons.
On the other hand, the Bucs will be saddled with a ~$35MM dead cap charge next season if Brady departs, which is the expected outcome. A Smith release would create a cap savings of ~$10MM, and that reality, combined with his performance this year, suggest that his roster spot is not secure.
