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Breakdown Of Top 2023 QB Draft Prospects

April 2nd, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Ely Allen

After last year’s draft, which saw only one quarterback taken in the first two rounds, this year’s draft class boasts a bit more top talent at the NFL’s signature position. The group’s superior personnel has already created a small amount of chaos atop the draft order with Carolina trading into the No. 1 overall pick. With three of the teams drafting at the top of the first round expected to have a need for a new quarterback, and several others having the option to trade up for one, there is a consensus that four quarterbacks should hear their names called on the night of April 27.

Teams interested in a new passer will have their choice between whoever is left of Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Florida’s Anthony Richardson, and Kentucky’s Will Levis. Below, we’ll explore the benefits offered by each young quarterback and provide some reasoning as to why they may or may not hear their names called first.

Bryce Young

Not only was Young the best recruit in his state or at his position coming out of high school, the young athlete out of Mater Dei (California) was rated as the nation’s No. 1 overall recruit in 2020, according to 247sports.com. He committed to nearby USC with two years left of high school play but flipped his commitment to Alabama at the beginning of his senior year.

Young played sparingly as a freshman in Tuscaloosa, backing up junior starter Mac Jones. With Jones having departed for the NFL, Young took over the Crimson Tide offense as a sophomore. He took the college football world by storm in 2021, completing 66.91% of his passes for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns while only throwing seven interceptions. He took Alabama to the title game, falling to Georgia but stoking early perceptions of himself as a future No. 1 overall draft pick. In 2022, Young continued to impress despite the loss of several top receivers, two to the first two rounds of the previous year’s draft. He completed 64.47% of his passes for 3,328 yards, 32 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

Young came into college as the nation’s top dual-threat passer but never developed as much of a rusher at Alabama. Instead, he utilized his versatility to be an effective passer on the run. Young’s eyes and mind work fast through progressions and help him to anticipate throwing lanes at an elite level. He’s adapted to his smaller size in terms of vision, but he requires his lower body to make strong throws. Teams don’t seem to worry about his lack of size as much as his durability. In a league that’s already seen success from a smaller quarterback in Kyler Murray, Young is expected to become a starting quarterback at the NFL level before long.

C.J. Stroud

Not far from Young in the southern California area, Stroud came out of the same class out of Rancho Cucamonga (California). Not quite as touted as Young, Stroud still boasted five stars as the nation’s second-best pro-style quarterback, according to 247. He made his decision late in the process but enrolled early shortly after committing to Ohio State.

Stroud also sat his true freshman season, redshirting behind starter Justin Fields. He was easily as productive as Young in their first years starting. In 2021, Stroud completed 71.88% of his passes for 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns while only tossing six interceptions. Last year, Stroud, too, saw a bit of a drop-off in production, losing two receivers in the first round, but still impressed while completing 66.32% of his passes for 3,688 yards, 41 touchdowns, and six interceptions.

Stroud seems to be the most prototypical of the four options. His size, strength, and athleticism all signify a routine pro quarterback. His size gives him an ideally strong platform from which to throw and allows him to layer balls into short and intermediate levels over lineman and backers. The size does limit his agility, making him slow out of breaks and inaccurate when throwing on the run. His biggest strength, though, is his pure passing ability. He throws a strong, tight ball in a smooth motion, resulting in passes that receivers love to catch. His traditional quarterback makeup could be what makes him so attractive to a team like the Panthers at No. 1.

Anthony Richardson

Richardson is far and away the wild card of this group. A consensus four-star, dual-threat quarterback out of Eastside (Florida), Richardson stayed home in Gainesville for college after some back-and-forth on his commitment to the Gators.

Richardson is the least experienced of the four top options at quarterback. Richardson redshirted behind Kyle Trask as a freshman and sat behind Emory Jones as a sophomore. It wasn’t until last year that Richardson found himself starting behind center. Unlike the unquestionable success of Young and Stroud, Richardson’s results were hardly as impressive. Last season, Richardson completed 53.82% of his passes for 2,529 yards and 17 touchdowns while throwing nine interceptions. He did display a stronger rushing ability than the above two, racking up 654 yards on 103 rushing attempts and tacking on nine scores with his legs. As a starter for the Gators, Richardson ended college with a 6-7 record.

Despite the seemingly mediocre production, Richardson has skyrocketed up draft boards as pundits have fallen in love with his potential. Richardson has a large frame, similar to Stroud, but boasts an athleticism that makes it much more dangerous. His size and burst make him reminiscent of a young Cam Newton with the ball in his hands. Richardson has a rocket for an arm, completing easy throws with only a flick of the wrist. The physical frame and abilities are there in a raw form, but much molding is necessary. He’s extremely inconsistent in his decision-making and accuracy, resulting in dangerous passes into a crowd and misses that never stand a chance of hitting their targets.

This is a common high-risk, high-reward situation with drafting quarterbacks. Richardson could develop into an All-Pro or flame out, unable to make the most of his abilities.

Will Levis

Levis is another curious prospect whose production doesn’t quite match his hype as a top draft pick. A three-star prospect leaving Xavier (Connecticut), Levis committed to Penn State as part of the 2018 recruiting class. After redshirting as a freshman, Levis sat for two years behind Sean Clifford before transferring to Kentucky.

Levis took over as an immediate starter in Lexington and won 10 games for the Wildcats in 2021, completing 66.01% of his passes for 2,826 yards and 24 touchdowns while tossing 13 interceptions. Levis also displayed an ability to run the ball that year, producing 376 yards and nine touchdowns. When Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Ali departed for the NFL, Levis’s production suffered as a result. In 2022, injuries and the loss of his top targets led to a down year in which he completed 65.37% of his passes for 2,406 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, all without displaying the rushing ability of prior years.

Like Richardson, Levis boasts the size, arm strength, and athleticism that make him an extremely attractive prospect on paper. There are latent abilities available within Levis, but a lack of sound technique and procedure hold Levis back from his full potential. He can throw strong balls through tight windows but also struggles with consistent accuracy. He is physical and tough but needs that toughness when standing too long in the pocket. There are strong tools to utilize at the NFL level, but it will likely take time and a good coach preaching strong technique in order for Levis to become a strong starter at the next level. Teams want him to be the next Josh Allen, but he has a way to go in order to get there.

There we have it: two strong options who seem ready to start in Week 1 and two developmental projects who could turn into stars in the right system. Which team needs which quarterback the most? Tell us in the comments who you’d want your team to take a chance on.

5 Key Stories: 3/26/23 – 4/2/23

April 2nd, 2023 at 4:51pm CST by Adam La Rose

The first few waves of free agency have come and gone, but plenty of key storylines remain in place around the NFL. Here’s a quick recap of some of the top headlines from this past week:

  • Packers, Jets Continuing Rodgers Negotiations: It is well known around the NFL that Aaron Rodgers wishes to continue his career with the Jets, and that the Packers are more than willing to move on from the four-time MVP. Trade talks between Green Bay and New York are now centered on the compensation (particularly in 2024 draft capital) which will be needed to finalize a swap. There is a growing sense that no first-round picks will be included in the package sent to the Packers, given the uncertainty surrounding Rodgers’ playing future beyond 2023. Most of the elements of this trade – including, quite possibly, the financial work which will be required for the Jets to absorb the 39-year-old’s contract – are said to be in place, though, so trade compensation likely represents the final hurdle to a deal being consummated.
  • Jackson Goes Public With Trade Request: The saga surrounding Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has taken a number of turns recently, including his Twitter posts stating that he asked for a trade one month ago. Negotiations have remained ongoing for years now, but not much traction has been gained between player and team. The former MVP’s market has not heated up, as no serious suitors for an offer sheet or tag-and-trade have emerged to date. The issue of draft compensation, along with the matter of guarantees (although Jackson is reportedly not seeking a fully-guaranteed pact), has left the 26-year-old’s future in the air well into the offseason.
  • Commanders Sale Approaching? Signs continue to point to the Dan Snyder era in Washington nearing an end. Two fully funded bids (from the groups led by Josh Harris and Steve Apostolopoulos) have been submitted, despite the fact that it is not known with certainty whether or not Snyder intends to sell. The latter’s recent actions, including reportedly moving himself and his family to England, however, have further fueled the belief that a sale will be finalized in the near future. In addition to Harris and Apostolopoulos, Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta and an unnamed fourth bidder are in place as potential new Commanders owners.
  • Hopkins Trade Market Heating Up? The 2023 free agent class of wideouts has, as expected, produced little in the way of big-money deals. One of the top trade candidates at the position, DeAndre Hopkins, is drawing interest from a number of teams, as the Cardinals continue to shop him. To no surprise, the 30-year-old is eyeing a contending team as his next home, but his contract represents a significant obstacle. Hopkins would likely sign an extension upon arrival with a new team to lower his 2023 cap hit ($29.99MM), but Arizona has remained firm in seeking a trade package including at least one second-round pick in return for the three-time All-Pro. Interested teams (including the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and, perhaps less feasibly, the Patriots) are intent on having the Cardinals eat a portion of Hopkins’ remaining compensation to make a trade more manageable. The degree to which Arizona is willing to do so will no doubt go a long way in determining his playing future.  
  • Campbell Heading To Atlanta: After three years in Baltimore, six-time Pro Bowl defensive end Calais Campbell was a cap casualty of the Ravens this offseason, allowing him to head elsewhere on the open market. He did just that, inking a one-year deal with the Falcons which includes $7MM guaranteed and has a maximum value of $9MM. The 36-year-old proved he can still be an effective producer in the run and pass game in 2022, and will look for career sack No. 100 with an Atlanta team which has made a number of noteworthy additions so far in free agency. A strong year with his fourth career franchise will help the 2010s All-Decade member add further to his legacy.

2023 Top 50 NFL Free Agents

March 10th, 2023 at 10:10pm CST by Sam Robinson

Super Bowl LVII provided the latest example of the value free agency can bring. The Chiefs revamped their receiving corps on last year’s market, while the Eagles acquired three defensive starters — including sack leader Haason Reddick. The Jaguars also used a March 2022 splurge to ignite their surprising surge to the divisional round.

Beginning with the legal tampering period, which starts at 3pm CT on Monday, and continuing with the official start to free agency (3pm Wednesday), the next several days represent a highlight on the NFL calendar. Which teams will change their 2023 outlooks for the better next week?

While the 2023 free agent class has absorbed its share of body blows and indeed lacks depth at certain spots, a few positions will bring waves of starter-level talent. Right tackle will invite some big-money decisions, and the safety and off-ball linebacker positions feature considerable depth. A few ascending talents and hidden gems appear in this class as well.

This list ranks free agents by earning potential. In terms of accomplishments, Bobby Wagner, Fletcher Cox and Lavonte David would lap most of the players included here. With each defender going into his age-33 season, however, the standouts’ ability to command big contracts is certainly not what it once was.

In terms of possible destinations, not every team is represented equally. Some teams will bring more needs and cap space into this year’s marketplace than others. With some help from Adam La Rose, here is this year’s PFR top 50 free agents list, along with potential landing spots for each player.

1. Orlando Brown Jr., T. Age in Week 1: 27

As the 49ers did two years ago with Trent Williams, the Chiefs will let Brown hit the market. This could end up benefiting the veteran tackle, who was offered a deal with an average annual value north of Williams’ tackle-record $23MM per year before last July’s franchise tag deadline. Citing insufficient guarantees, Brown turned it down. Kansas City’s offer did contain a bloated final year to bump up the AAV to $23.1MM, but will Brown – a quality left tackle but not a top-shelf option at the position – do as well this year? He will soon find out.

Brown has now made four Pro Bowls and carries positional versatility that would intrigue were he open to a return to right tackle, which by all accounts he is not. The 363-pound blocker can struggle against speed-rusher types, but he is set to be the rare accomplished left tackle in his prime to hit the market. The Chiefs sent a package including a first-round pick to the Ravens for Brown, whose bet on himself led to a $16.6MM tag and an open market. The bidding will run high, though it might not reach the places the Williams pursuit did in 2021.

The Chiefs’ exclusive negotiating rights with Brown end March 13; they have had nearly two years to complete a deal. The market will determine if the league views the sixth-year blocker as an elite-level left tackle or merely a good one. Then again, bidding wars drive up the prices for O-linemen on the market. O-line salary records have fallen four times (Williams, Corey Linsley, Joe Thuney, Brandon Scherff) in free agency since 2021. This foray could give Brown the guaranteed money he seeks, and it puts the Chiefs at risk of seeing their two-year left tackle depart. The Ravens also passed on this payment back in 2021, in part because they already had Ronnie Stanley on the payroll.

The defending champions have Brown and right tackle Andrew Wylie eligible for free agency; some of their leftover funds from the Tyreek Hill trade went to Brown’s tag. Although some among the Chiefs were frustrated Brown passed on last year’s offer, the team will be hurting at a premium position if he walks. Given the importance the blindside position carries, fewer teams are in need compared to right tackle. The Titans losing Taylor Lewan and continuing to clear cap space could point to a run at Brown, though the team has a few needs up front. The Jets likely have needs at both tackle spots. Would the Bears relocate Braxton Jones to the right side? Ryan Poles was with the Chiefs when they traded for Brown, and the Bears could outmuscle anyone for cap space.

Best fits: Titans, Chiefs, Commanders

2. Mike McGlinchey, T. Age in Week 1: 28

Teams in need of right tackles will participate in one of the more interesting markets in recent memory. Above-average-to-good offensive linemen do well in free agency annually, and this year will send three experienced right tackles in their prime to the market. A five-year starter in San Francisco and former top-10 pick, McGlinchey has a good case as the best of this lot. The five-year vet’s run-blocking craft eclipses his pass-protection chops exiting Year 5, but he will walk into a competitive market. The former Notre Dame left tackle should have a lucrative deal in place during next week’s legal tampering period.

Although mutual interest existed regarding a second 49ers-McGlinchey agreement, John Lynch acknowledged the only viable path for McGlinchey to stay in San Francisco would be his market underwhelming. That seems unlikely, so right tackle-seeking teams – and there are a handful – will jockey for the sixth-year veteran. McGlinchey turned 28 in January, making this his obvious window to cash in. He rated fifth in ESPN’s run block win rate stat last season, bouncing back from the quadriceps injury that ended his 2021 season.

There is no shortage of Kyle Shanahan– or Sean McVay-influenced schemes around the league. The Bears employ Luke Getsy as their play-caller; Getsy worked for Shanahan/McVay tree branch Matt LaFleur, and the Bears’ cap space dwarfs every other team’s. After fielding a shaky O-line (on a team full of substandard position groups), Chicago needs a better idea of Justin Fields’ trajectory. Outbidding the field for the top right tackle available is a good start. The Patriots want a right tackle – on a line without a big contract presently – and the Raiders might have a say here as well. In need at multiple O-line spots, Las Vegas will have cash as well if it passes on a big QB investment.

Best fits: Bears, Patriots, Raiders

3. Jawaan Taylor, T. Age in Week 1: 26

As expected, the Jaguars took Evan Engram off the market via the franchise tag. The tight end tag being $7MM cheaper than the $18.2MM offensive lineman tag always pointed Taylor toward free agency, and after never missing a start in four Duval County seasons, Taylor will be tough for the Jags to retain. They already drafted Walker Little in the 2021 second round, and no team that is currently paying a left tackle top-10 money (Cam Robinson is seventh) has a top-10 right tackle contract on the books. Taylor is expected to land at least a top-10 right tackle deal, with a $17MM-AAV figure being floated. That would place the former Florida Gator in the top five at the position, depending on how McGlinchey fares next week.

Taylor resembles the genre of player that usually populates the top of a position’s free agency market: a dependable performer who checks in below the top tier at his job. Taylor enjoyed his strongest year in his platform campaign. The former second-round pick dropped his hold count from 11 in 2021 to two in 2022. While PFF charged Taylor with five sacks allowed, Football Outsiders measured his blown-block rate at a career-low 1.3%. Offering a disparate skillset compared to McGlinchey, Taylor has fared better as a pass protector than in the run game. PFF slotted him as a top-10 pass protector among right tackles but viewed him as a dismal run-blocker.

The Jags have presumably made Taylor an offer, but other teams will probably top it. The Dolphins gave Terron Armstead a five-year, $75MM deal in 2022 but have needed a right tackle ever since Ja’Wuan James’ 2019 exit. They were forced to start in-season pickup Brandon Shell for much of the year and have cleared more than $45MM in cap space over the past two days. The team just picked up Tua Tagovailoa‘s fifth-year option, and the league’s lone southpaw starting QB needs better blindside protection after a season in which he suffered at least two concussions. Overspending on O-linemen is not the Patriots’ M.O., but they have a need at right tackle and do not have big dollars devoted to quarterback or any position up front. New England is on the hunt for a right tackle upgrade, and the team’s 2021 free agency showed it would spend when it deemed expenditures necessary.

Best fits: Dolphins, Patriots, Jaguars

4. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB. Age in Week 1: 31

The quarterback market cleared up this week, seeing Geno Smith and Daniel Jones extended and Derek Carr’s lengthy street free agency stretch end with $70MM in practical guarantees. Garoppolo’s injury history will affect his value, but teams kind of make it a priority to staff this position. The former Super Bowl starter is in his prime and on the market for the first time. How high this market goes will depend on what the Raiders want and what Aaron Rodgers decides.

The 49ers’ 12-game win streak that included Brock Purdy’s stunning displays began with Garoppolo at the controls. Guiding San Francisco to four straight wins, Garoppolo was at or close to his best when he suffered a broken foot in Week 13. He sported a 7-0 TD-INT ratio during that win streak and closed the season 16th in QBR. He would have walked into a better market had the injury not occurred; the setback came after a string of health issues. He tore an ACL in 2018, missed 10 games in 2020 after an ankle sprain and was significantly limited by the end of the 2021 slate due to a three-injury season. Garoppolo’s March 2022 shoulder surgery hijacked his trade market.

Ideally for Garoppolo, Rodgers returns to Green Bay or retires. While that is looking unlikelier by the day, it would put the Jets in a desperate position following Carr’s decision. The Raiders represent the other wild card. Garoppolo would slide into Josh McDaniels’ system seamlessly, given the parties’ three-plus years together in New England. The Raiders have operated a bit more stealthily compared to the Jets; they have been connected to Rodgers, Garoppolo and rolling with a rookie. Plan C here would be a tough sell given the presences of 30-year-old skill-position players Davante Adams and Darren Waller, but Las Vegas’ plans cloud Garoppolo’s market. If the Raiders pass and Rodgers chooses the Jets, Garoppolo’s earning power could drop.

McDaniels not fancying a Garoppolo reunion opens the door for the Texans, who hired ex-49ers pass-game coordinator Bobby Slowik as OC, and others. Houston’s situation may not appeal to Garoppolo, but Slowik and Nick Caserio being in Houston make this connection too clear to ignore. The Buccaneers and Commanders are in win-now positions but are giving indications they do not want to spend much at QB. The Commanders were deep in talks for the then-49ers QB last year, however. Garoppolo will test those squads, along with the Falcons, who are entering Year 3 of the Terry Fontenot–Arthur Smith regime. The Panthers’ acquisition of the No. 1 pick likely takes them out of the running, and Carolina not being in the mix could also affect how high the Garoppolo price goes.

Bottom line, there should be enough teams interested in staffing their 2023 QB1 spots that the best free agent option should do OK no matter what happens with Rodgers.

Best fits: Raiders, Texans, Commanders

5. Jamel Dean, CB. Age in Week 1: 26

The Buccaneers retained Carlton Davis last year, but their dire cap situation should force a Dean departure. Dean’s age/performance combination should make him this year’s top cornerback available. With corner a position of need for many teams, the former third-round pick stands to do very well. Dean has only been a full-time starter in one season, however, seeing his defensive snap share jump from 67% in 2021 to 90% last season.

Excelling in press coverage, Dean played a major role for the 2020 Super Bowl champion Bucs iteration and overtook fellow free agent Sean Murphy-Bunting last year. Dean did perform better in 2021 compared to 2022, allowing no touchdowns and limiting QBs to a collective 50.0 passer rating; those numbers shot up to four and 86.0 last season. Still, PFF rated Dean as last year’s 10th-best corner. J.C. Jackson did not break into the top five among corners upon hitting the market last year; Dean should not be expected to do so, either. But many teams will be interested.

The Patriots have paid up for a corner previously, in Stephon Gilmore (2017), but Jonathan Jones – forced to primarily play a boundary role in 2022 – wants to re-sign and will be far cheaper than Dean. The Falcons need help opposite AJ Terrell and trail only the Bears in cap space. Although a Terrell payment is coming, it can be tabled to 2024 due to the fifth-year option. The Dolphins are clearing cap space and now have a corner need, with Byron Jones no longer with the team after his missed season.

Best fits: Dolphins, Falcons, Patriots

6. Jessie Bates, S. Age in Week 1: 26

Bates stands to be one of this free agency crop’s safest bets, combining extensive experience – the final two years as a pillar for a championship threat – with a host of prime years remaining. Beginning his career at 21, the Wake Forest product has started 79 games and anchored the Bengals’ secondary for most of his tenure. The Bengals did not tag Bates for a second time, passing on a $15.5MM price. With the team planning to let Bates test the market, it looks like the sixth-year defender will leave Cincinnati.

The Bengals and Bates went through two offseasons of negotiations, ending in the 2022 tag. The Bengals have some big payments to make at higher-profile positions. Safety does not qualify as such, but Bates has been a cornerstone in Lou Anarumo’s defense and will be handsomely rewarded. Bates finished as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 overall safety in 2020 and, after a shakier 2021 in which he admitted his contract situation affected his play, Bates came through with impact plays in the postseason. He graded as a top-25 safety, via PFF, in 2022.

Safety is one of this year’s deeper positions in free agency. Of the top 10 safety contracts, however, only one went to a free agent (Marcus Williams in 2022). Bates should be expected to join the Ravens defender, who signed for $14MM per year. It will be interesting if he can climb into the top five at the position; Justin Simmons’ $15.25MM-AAV accord sits fifth. Bates should be expected to approach or eclipse that, though moving to the Derwin James–Minkah Fitzpatrick tier will be more difficult. Still, after the Bengals offered Bates less than $17MM guaranteed last summer, he should depart for more guaranteed money.

The Browns are interested in Bates, who will cost more than John Johnson cost Cleveland two years ago (three years, $33.75MM). Clear of the record-setting Matt Ryan dead-money hit, the Falcons have cash to spend and a Terry Fontenot–Arthur Smith regime entering Year 3. The Falcons need to make progress, and they do not have much in the way of talent or costs at safety. The team has not featured much here since the Keanu Neal–Ricardo Allen tandem splintered. Bates would be a way to remedy that.

Team fits: Falcons, Browns, Raiders

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5 Key Stories: 2/26/23 – 3/5/23

March 5th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Adam La Rose

The calendar has flipped over to March, which means the NFL Combine and the impending franchise tag deadline have driven most of the headlines in recent days. Here’s a quick recap of some of the top stories from the past week:

  • Bears Open To Trading No. 1 Pick: Only twice this century has the No. 1 pick in the draft been traded, but that is a distinct possibility in 2023. The Bears are reportedly leaning toward a move down the board, something which GM Ryan Poles hinted at when giving incumbent quarterback Justin Fields a strong endorsement. Several QB-needy teams have top-10 picks, so a bidding war shouldn’t be difficult for the Bears to generate while fielding calls. Interestingly, Poles added that a trade involving the top selection could take place before free agency begins, which would be an unprecedented move.
  • Saints Prepared To Sign Carr: Derek Carr figures to have several suitors as the top quarterback currently available, but New Orleans is reportedly “ready” to sign him right now. The Saints are in the market for an upgrade under center from their 2022 setup, and they pursued Deshaun Watson last offseason. They have plenty financial work remaining to become cap compliant, however, and will likely face competition from the likes of the Jets and Panthers to sign the 31-year-old. Carr could make his decision in the coming days, so his future – and that of the Saints at the QB position – could become clearer soon.
  • Raiders To Tag Jacobs: The NFL’s leading rusher could have commanded a hefty payday on the open market, but he will remain in Vegas for at least one more season. Unless a long-term deal can be agreed upon with Josh Jacobs, the Raiders will tag him at a cost of $10.1MM. A multi-year deal appears to be each party’s preference, though Jacobs’ 2022 performance would no doubt drive up his contract demands; the two sides can negotiate a pact until mid-July assuming the tag gets used. The same holds true of Tony Pollard with the Cowboys.
  • Wentz, Mariota Headline Veteran Cuts: Joining Carr in early quarterback free agency this past week were Carson Wentz of the Commanders and Marcus Mariota of the Falcons. Neither move came as a surprise, as the veterans lost their No. 1 positions midway through the 2022 season after being signed as bridge starters. Both Washington and Atlanta are likely to make additions under center this offseason, albeit with less expensive options to compete with Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder, respectively. Wentz and Mariota will look to catch on with a preferable situation as they attempt to rebuild their value. They are joined on the open market by other notable veterans such as wideout Kenny Golladay and running back Leonard Fournette.
  • Jaguars To Tag Engram: After an up-and-down tenure with the Giants, Evan Engram enjoyed a career-year in 2022 with the Jaguars. He and the team have expressed their desire to continue their partnership, and the 28-year-old will remain in Duval County on at least the franchise tag (valued at $11.35MM). A long-term deal remains a strong possibility, and could take shape before the March 7 tag deadline. Failing that, Engram and the Jags could keep negotiating through July 15 as they look to retain several core members of last season’s playoff squad.

2023 Offensive/Defensive Coordinator Search Tracker

February 28th, 2023 at 2:45pm CST by Sam Robinson

As the head coaching carousel spun for several weeks, many teams made coordinator changes as well. Teams seeking new head coaches are conducting OC and DC searches, and a handful of other teams that did not make HC changes are also searching for top assistants.

This is a big year for offensive coordinator hires, with nearly half the league making changes. Here are the teams searching for new OCs and DCs. As new searches emerge, they will be added to the list.

Updated 3-1-23 (3:31pm CT)

Offensive Coordinators

Arizona Cardinals 

Baltimore Ravens (Out: Greg Roman)

Carolina Panthers (Out: Ben McAdoo)

  • Thomas Brown, tight ends coach, (Rams): Hired
  • Jim Bob Cooter, passing-game coordinator (Jaguars): Interviewed

Dallas Cowboys (Out: Kellen Moore)

  • Brian Angelichio, tight ends coach (Vikings): Interviewed 2/2
  • Thomas Brown, tight ends coach (Rams): Interviewed
  • Jeff Nixon, running backs coach (Panthers): Interviewed
  • Brian Schottenheimer, offensive consultant (Cowboys): Hired

Denver Broncos (Out: Justin Outten)

Houston Texans (Out: Pep Hamilton)

Indianapolis Colts (Out: Parks Frazier)

  • Jim Bob Cooter, passing-game coordinator (Jaguars): Hired
  • Tee Martin, wide receivers coach (Ravens): Interview requested

Kansas City Chiefs (Out: Eric Bieniemy)

  • Matt Nagy, quarterbacks coach (Chiefs): Hired

Los Angeles Chargers (Out: Joe Lombardi)

Los Angeles Rams (Out: Liam Coen)

New York Jets (Out: Mike LaFleur)

Philadelphia Eagles (Out: Shane Steichen)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Out: Byron Leftwich)

Tennessee Titans (Out: Todd Downing)

Washington Commanders (Out: Scott Turner)

Defensive Coordinators

Arizona Cardinals (Out: Vance Joseph)

Atlanta Falcons (Out: Dean Pees)

Buffalo Bills (Out: Leslie Frazier)

Carolina Panthers (Out: Al Holcomb)

  • Ejiro Evero, former defensive coordinator (Broncos): Hired
  • Vic Fangio, former head coach (Broncos): Interviewed
  • Marquand Manuel, safeties coach (Jets): Interviewed
  • Kris Richard, co-defensive coordinator (Saints): Interviewed

Denver Broncos

Houston Texans 

Los Angeles Chargers (Out: Renaldo Hill)

  • Derrick Ansley, defensive backs coach (Chargers): Promoted
  • Doug Belk, defensive coordinator (Houston): Interviewed
  • DeMarcus Covington, defensive line coach (Patriots): Interviewed

Miami Dolphins (Out: Josh Boyer)

Minnesota Vikings (Out: Ed Donatell)

New Orleans Saints (Out: Ryan Nielsen, Kris Richard)

  • Joe Woods, former defensive coordinator (Browns): Hired

Philadelphia Eagles (Out: Jonathan Gannon)

San Francisco 49ers (Out: DeMeco Ryans)

  • Vic Fangio, former head coach (Broncos): On radar
  • Chris Harris, defensive backs coach (Commanders): Interviewed 1/31
  • Kris Kocurek, defensive line coach (49ers): On radar
  • Steve Wilks, former interim head coach (Panthers): Hired

Community Tailgate: Lamar Jackson

February 26th, 2023 at 10:58pm CST by Adam La Rose

Ozzie Newsome’s final draft as Ravens general manager in 2018 saw the team secure a succession plan for Joe Flacco at the quarterback position. With the Super Bowl XLVII MVP aging and approaching an important financial point in his contract, Lamar Jackson was selected to one day take over the reins of a transitioning offense.

That time came midway through Jackson’s rookie season, when the Louisville product took over for an injured Flacco. He helped lead the Ravens to a 6-1 record and a playoff berth, cementing his status as the starter moving forward. The 2019 season saw Jackson deliver one of the most unique and historic performances in NFL history, which culminated in the league’s second ever unanimous MVP vote. Expectations have been through the roof ever since, but the situation between Jackson and the Ravens has soured recently with contract talks netting little progress over the past two years.

The 26-year-old was thought to be next in line for a mega-extension similar to the ones signed by Patrick Mahomes and 2018 classmate Josh Allen. The Ravens have been prepared to pay Jackson in a similar fashion to those two in terms of annual compensation in the neighborhood of $45MM per season. As time wore on without much traction being gained during negotiations, though, the events of last offseason marked an important turning point.

After being the subject of a bidding war, Deshaun Watson was ultimately traded to the Browns and signed to a five-year, $230MM deal. The surprise from Cleveland’s willingness to part with three first-round picks for him was surpassed only by the fully guaranteed nature of his pact. Many around the league – including Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti – lamented the historic investment the Browns made in Watson, acutely aware of how it would likely affect Jackson’s leverage in extension talks.

The previous season had seen Baltimore find itself atop the AFC standings before a reaching a tipping point on the injury front. That included Jackson missing time due to injury for the first time in his career. He was sidelined for the final five games of the year, and the Ravens narrowly missed the playoffs while struggling mightily on offense. Reports then emerged during the summer of 2022 that the two-time Pro Bowler turned down an offer including $133MM in guaranteed money.

That figure would have ranked second in the league, but nowhere near the level of Watson’s deal. New contracts signed by Russell Wilson ($124MM fully guaranteed) and Kyler Murray ($103MM) suggested teams were willing to ignore the Watson accord in terms of precedent on the guarantee front, something GM Eric DeCosta and the Ravens’ front office is holding firm on. Jackson made it clear he would pause negotiations during the 2022 season, one which was expected to provide clarity on his financial future.

Playing on the fifth-year option, Jackson and the Ravens instead followed a similar script this year. The former Heisman winner suffered a knee injury in Week 13, something which was not initially expected to cost him the remainder of the season. That did end up being the case, however, and much was made about his absence extending into the team’s postseason loss. Jackson’s decision to take to social media to elaborate on the extent of his PCL sprain, and later to issue a thinly-veiled directive to the team regarding his impending free agency has likewise not sat well.

Having missed 10 of the past 22 games, injuries have become a talking point with so much at stake in contract talks. That figure could give the Ravens (or any other interested team) perceived leverage, but Jackson has plenty as well. The Ravens are 46-19 in his starts, and 4-9 without him since 2019. The team’s offense has averaged 10 fewer points per game without Jackson during that span compared to the games in which he does play.

A new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken is expected to produce schematic changes compared to Greg Roman, the OC during each of Jackson’s four full seasons as a starter. Regardless of what takes place on that front, the Ravens’ pass-catching corps (which lacks established playmakers outside of tight end Mark Andrews) will be a key area of focus. Additions – such as a long-term replacement for Marquise Brown, whose trade request was quietly granted last spring – will be hard to come by when Jackson takes up a substantially higher portion of the Ravens’ cap, either through a mega-deal or a one-year charge brought on by the franchise tag.

The difficulty in acquiring and retaining pass-catchers increasingly became a point of contention after Flacco turned his 2012 playoff success into a franchise-record extension. Trepidation on the team’s part in terms of looking to avoid a repeat of that scenario would be understandable up to a point, as the Ravens look to keep Jackson in the fold while not compromising an otherwise strong roster.

With the franchise tag being all-but certain in Jackson’s case, this saga could continue for months to come. An offer sheet or tag-and-trade could come into play, depending on which tag the Ravens use and Jackson’s perceived market around the league. Whether he signs his tag is another matter altogether, and sitting out the offseason could lead to a holdout situation similar to Le’Veon Bell in 2018. The then-Steeler skipped the entire campaign, forfeiting millions in compensation (albeit far less than what Jackson would be giving up if he followed suit). Bell still landed a big-ticket deal from the Jets in 2019, so the tactic could prove useful if a repeat were to be attempted.

In the summer, PFR’s readers were split on how they felt this situation would unfold. No option is off the table at this point, from a franchise-record deal to the league’s first ever trade involving an MVP under the age of 30. How do you see things playing out? Which side will concede during negotiations? Where will Jackson play in 2023 and beyond? Have your say in the comments section.

5 Key Stories: 2/19/23 – 2/26/23

February 26th, 2023 at 4:51pm CST by Adam La Rose

With free agency not far away, the coordinator hiring cycle has begun to wind down as teams look to make financial moves to become cap compliant and free up flexibility. In case you missed any of this past week’s top headlines, here’s a quick recap:

  • Giants Continuing Jones, Barkley Talks: All teams have important decisions to make in the next few days, but the Giants face the dilemma of keeping quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley on the roster for at least one more year. They have resumed contract negotiations with Jones, in the wake of reports that he is seeking north of $40MM (perhaps as much as $45MM) per season. New York is trying to finalize a deal at a more affordable number, knowing that the franchise tag deadline (March 7) is approaching. That one-year option remains for Barkley in particular, though the team’s intention remains multi-years deals for both. Progress will need to be made soon on at least one front if they wish to avoid either player hitting the open market.
  • Rams Moving On From Wagner: All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner chose to sign with his hometown team on a five-year deal last offseason, but that contract resulted in only a one-year stint there. The Rams and Wagner will mutually part ways when the new league year begins, and he will likely once again have a robust market for his services. The 32-year-old remained highly productive in 2022, but will turn his attention to signing with a contender. In the wake of that news, it has since come out that star corner Jalen Ramsey is expected to be traded as the Rams reset financially.
  • Chiefs Promote Nagy To OC: The departure of Eric Bieniemy left a vacancy at the offensive coordinator spot for the Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs made the expected move of promoting from within, naming Matt Nagy as their new OC. The ex-Bears head coach is now in his second stint under that title in Kansas City, though it does not include play-calling duties on a full-time basis. Nagy worked as quarterbacks coach in 2022, and has experience working not only with HC Andy Reid but QB Patrick Mahomes as well. The decision will give the Chiefs continuity as they look to lengthen their recent run of success.
  • Titans Shed Significant Salary: Cost-cutting season is in full swing, and the Titans made several notable moves by releasing wideout Robert Woods, linebacker Zach Cunningham, left tackle Taylor Lewan and kicker Randy Bullock within a matter of hours. The slew of cuts freed up more than $35MM in cap space, but Tennessee still sits outside the top-10 in the league in terms of financial wiggle room. In Lewan’s case, retirement could very well be the next step, but the other three will now get a head start on free agency. The Titans will have a number of replacements to find in the coming weeks and months in their bid to rebound from a disappointing 2022 campaign.
  • Broncos Reunite With Joseph: The Broncos have plenty of new faces on their coaching staff, including Sean Payton at the helm. However, their defense will have some familiarity under Vance Joseph, who was hired to come back to the Mile High City after his HC stint there ended in 2018. Since then, he had led Arizona’s defense and recently been let go by the Cardinals’ new staff. The 50-year-old won out over a few other notable candidates, including Rex Ryan, Matt Patricia and Sean Desai. He will aim to continue Denver’s success on defense in 2022, while Payton and Co. attempt to revive the team’s offense.

5 Key Stories: 2/12/23 – 2/19-23

February 19th, 2023 at 1:59pm CST by Adam La Rose

With Super Bowl LVII in the rearview, all 32 NFL teams are now in offseason mode. In case you missed any of the top developments in the days following another season coming to an end, here’s a quick breakdown:

  • Raiders Release Carr: A move which had long been expected finally became official this week, as the Raiders cut quarterback Derek Carr before the guarantee trigger in his contract took effect. A trade to an interested team was not an option, after the four-time Pro Bowler made it clear he would force Las Vegas to make him a free agent. Now, Carr can sign with a new team at any time (as opposed to other free agents who can only do so when the new league year begins in March). He has already met with the Saints, and most recently, the Jets. A number of other suitors are likely to show interest in him as well.
  • Colts Hire Steichen As HC: The Colts conducted a lengthy, wide-ranging search for their next full-time head coach, one which included interim HC Jeff Saturday for quite some time. Not long after narrowing their list of finalists, though, they landed on Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. The 37-year-old has received glowing reviews for his previous work with quarterbacks in particular, something which will play a central part in his success in Indianapolis, a team desperate for a long-term solution under center.
  • Gannon Takes Over As Cardinals’ Coach: Hours after the news broke that Steichen was headed to Indianapolis, it was learned that Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon had been hired by Arizona. That put him in place as the final HC hire of the 2023 cycle, and made the Eagles the first team in a decade to see both their offensive and defensive coordinators depart in the same offseason. Gannon, 39, emerged as a late contender for the Cardinals’ head coaching gig, and will face the tall task of rebuilding the AFC West squad alongside new general manager Monti Ossenfort and a pair of new coordinators.  
  • Commanders Hire Bieniemy As OC: After five straight one-year contracts tying him to Kansas City, Eric Bieniemy has landed a new coaching opportunity in Washington. While it isn’t the HC position many have been clamoring for, the 53-year-old will have his first opportunity to have full control of an offense, along with a raise and bump in title as the Commanders’ assistant head coach. The two-time Super Bowl winner inherits a far different situation than the one he left in Kansas City (from the distinct lack of an established quarterback to the uncertain future of HC Ron Rivera), but he will have the chance to guide his new team to an improved showing on offense and, in turn, boost his own stock.
  • Ridley Applies For Reinstatement: On the first day he was eligible to do so, wideout Calvin Ridley applied to be reinstated to the NFL. The 28-year-old was suspended for the 2022 campaign due to a violation of the league’s gambling policy, but was still traded at the deadline from the Falcons to the Jaguars. If he is allowed to suit up in 2023, the former first-rounder will look to build off his success in Atlanta while helping Jacksonville’s new-look pass-catching corps take another step forward.

2023 Free Agent RB Class

February 18th, 2023 at 11:22am CST by Ely Allen

This offseason is set to be an intriguing one in the running back market for multiple reasons. Not only are their top running backs in the league set to hit the market, but there is depth to be found throughout the position from starters to role players to backups. Here’s a quick rundown of some of the names your team may have the chance to add before the 2023 season.

First off, there are some bona fide starters set to hit free agency this year. The Giants’ Saquon Barkley and Raiders’ Josh Jacobs are the two that mainly fall under this umbrella. Barkley had a resurgent 2022 season that saw him assert the rushing dominance that had been absent since his rookie season in 2018. Though he failed to amass the receiving numbers he held as a rookie, his Pro Bowl season should be enough to establish him as one of the best running backs available this offseason, if not the best.

[RELATED: 2023 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates]

If it’s not Barkley, Jacobs has a strong claim of his own. The fourth-year rusher out of Alabama answered the calls questioning his future in Las Vegas with a career year that saw him rush for nearly 100 yards per game. Jacobs led the league with 1,653 rushing yards adding 12 touchdowns and 400 receiving yards for good measure. These two are the cream of the running back free agency crop and there’s no doubt about it.

Next, there are a number of running backs with star power potential. They either just displayed career years that should excite teams who may want them, or they have shown such potential in the past. Cowboys running back Tony Pollard and Eagles back Miles Sanders lead this group. Pollard has truly been itching to show the NFL what he can do. He broke 1,000 yards rushing for the first time this season and has 1,726 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in the past two years, all while playing second fiddle to starter Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard routinely averages more yards per attempt than Elliott and, for the first time this year, despite having 38 fewer rush attempts, Pollard outgained Elliott by 131 yards. Pollard rightfully deserves a chance to be a lead back in the NFL. Will he get his opportunity next season? Sanders has had a bit more opportunity to establish himself as a lead back but finally succeeded this season after rushing for career highs of 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. It’s taken him awhile to get here, but in the new offense with Hurts and other weapons, Sanders finally proved he was worth the second-round pick Philadelphia used on him in 2019. After Sanders accounted for over 70% of the team’s carries by running backs, the Eagles will have to decide just how valuable he is to the team.

Others who fall under this umbrella are the Browns’ Kareem Hunt and Lions’ Jamaal Williams. Hunt was a star in his rookie season with the Chiefs, leading the league in rushing that year with 1,327 yards. His sophomore season was as impressive until it was cut short when a video surfaced of him physically assaulting a woman. Since then, Hunt has played a competent second fiddle to Nick Chubb in Cleveland. He has failed to reach his lofty number from Kansas City but continues to be a strong addition to the offense. Heading in 2023 at 28 leaves Hunt with less and less time to regain his potential as a lead back. Williams, on the other hand, is a 28-year-old heading in the right direction. For the first time in his career, Williams was given the opportunity this season to be treated as a lead back and rewarded the Lions with a career-high 1,066 rushing yards and a league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns. Williams should certainly have earned himself a chance at another leading role somewhere next season.

This is already a ton of running back talent set to hit the market, but the depth doesn’t stop there. Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny has averaged over six yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, despite his career being hamstringed by injuries. David Montgomery has rushed for over 800 yards and five touchdowns in each of his four seasons with the Bears. Bills running back Devin Singletary showed similar production in his last two years in Buffalo. And, only a year ago, Jets running back James Robinson was considered one of the best players in Jacksonville after totaling 1,837 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns over his first two years.

Former 49ers running backs Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, Jerick McKinnon, and Jeff Wilson all have shown some success in backup roles over the years and should find opportunities in the coming seasons. Veterans in Saints running back Mark Ingram, Buccaneers running back Giovani Bernard, Ravens running back Kenyan Drake, and Broncos running back Latavius Murray should all hit the market. A number of players who have established themselves as reliable backups should be available like the Bengals’ Samaje Perine, Lions’ Justin Jackson, Broncos’ Marlon Mack, Vikings’ Alexander Mattison, Ravens’ Justice Hill and Seahawks’ Travis Homer.

Not only is the free agent pool already stacked, but it may also benefit even more from a number of talented rushers who are set to have rather large cap hits next season. While talented, Saints running back Alvin Kamara‘s recent legal troubles may make his $16.03MM cap hit next year a bit less palatable. Arizona back James Conner‘s $10.45MM cap hit and Tampa Bay back Leonard Fournette‘s $8.47MM cap hit may make them potential cap casualties, as well. Similarly, Broncos running back Chase Edmonds ($5.92MM), Ravens running back Gus Edwards ($5.63MM), Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson ($5.50MM), and Bills running back Nyheim Hines ($4.79MM) all hold high cap hits for their relative production.

There are many factors that affect how this offseason will play out for all these rushers. A low franchise tag amount of $10.1MM may keep backs like Pollard, Sanders, and Williams in place for another year. A tag of that amount being placed on Barkley or Jacobs should, rightfully, upset either back, who should earn north of $12MM per year. The rest of the field may be up to the whims of the market. The pure abundance of talent in the market may make it difficult for anyone to demand a high price. Another factor working against them is that many teams are adopting a draft-only policy on running backs, using the rushers for four years, then going back to the college ranks to replace them. This will likely require free agents to take lesser deals in order remain viable options in the NFL.

Starting next week, teams will have the option to apply their tags to impending free agents. March 13 will begin a negotiating period for free agents with the rest of the league before free agency officially opens two days later. The draft will follow a couple weeks after. There is plenty to keep an eye on in this year’s running back class, both in free agency and in the draft. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

2023 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 16th, 2023 at 10:15pm CST by Sam Robinson

Set to begin its fourth decade of existence, the franchise tag remains a valuable tool for teams to keep top free agents off the market. This year’s tag window opens at 3pm CT on Feb. 21 and closes at 3pm CT on March 7. The NFL released its franchise tag figures — regarding the non-exclusive tag, at least, which will apply to all but one possible tag recipient — earlier this month, and teams are busy budgeting for free agency.

The legal tampering period opens March 13, with the new league year (and official free agency) starting March 15. Once a player is tagged, he has until July 15 to sign an extension with his respective team. Absent an extension agreement by that date, the player must play the 2023 season on the tag (or go the Le’Veon Bell/Dan Williams/Sean Gilbert route, passing on guaranteed money and skipping the season).

With high-profile free agents weeks away from hitting the market, here are the players who figure to be tagged or at least generate conversations about a tag ahead of the March 7 deadline.

Locks

Lamar Jackson, QB (Ravens)

One of the most obvious tag candidates since the tag’s 1993 debut, Jackson has been extension-eligible since January 2021. He and the Ravens went through negotiations in 2021 and 2022, negotiating into the season two years ago and stopping talks before Week 1 — a Jackson mandate — of last season. The self-represented quarterback has declined multiple Ravens offers in this span and failed to finish a season for the second straight year. The endless extension drama and rumblings of team frustration about Jackson’s failure to return from an ankle injury aside, the team will tag the former MVP.

Baltimore GM Eric DeCosta said last month he had not decided on using the exclusive or non-exclusive tag — the former preventing teams from talking to the QB, the latter opening the door to offer sheets — but a recent report suggested the team is more likely to roll the dice by using the non-exclusive tag. This would allow another team to sign to Jackson, 25, to the fully guaranteed deal he covets (in a transaction that could send two first-round picks Baltimore’s way) but also hit the Ravens with just a $32.4MM cap hit.

With the Browns collecting three first-rounders and change for Deshaun Watson, the Ravens would almost definitely want more than the two-first-rounder haul attached as baseline compensation for franchise tag offer sheets. But an exclusive QB tag is expected to check in beyond $45MM; this would severely restrict the Ravens in free agency.

The Browns’ Watson extension changed the game for the Ravens, creating a potentially unbridgeable guarantee gap. Jackson has long been connected to seeking a deal north of Watson’s $230MM fully guaranteed; the Ravens offered $133MM guaranteed at signing last year. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti spoke out against the Browns giving Watson that money, and tag-and-trade scenarios involving the top quarterback in Ravens history have entered the equation. It will be a fascinating offseason in Baltimore, even after DeCosta and John Harbaugh expressed hope Jackson can be extended.

Likely tag recipients

Orlando Brown Jr., T (Chiefs)

Criticized by some for turning down the Chiefs’ six-year, $139MM extension offer in July 2022, Brown stayed healthy this season and earned another Pro Bowl nod. The mammoth left tackle is 2-for-2 in Pro Bowls as a Chief, and although he is not quite a top-tier blindsider, he would be one of this year’s top free agents if permitted to hit the market. The Super Bowl champions are not expected to let that happen. A second Brown tag would come in at $19.99MM, being 120% of his 2022 salary.

Brown, 26, cited insufficient guarantees in the Chiefs’ July proposal, which contained $38MM guaranteed at signing and $52.25MM guaranteed in total. The total guarantee figure trailed only ex-Ravens teammate Ronnie Stanley among tackles, while the full guarantee would have placed Brown fourth at the position. Brown turning down that proposal brought risk, and some in the Chiefs organization expressed frustration with the talented blocker. But the former Ravens right tackle’s bet on himself still appears to be paying off. This will be a crucial offseason for the Chiefs and Brown. A third tag — 144% of Brown’s 2023 salary — in 2024 would be viewed as untenable, sending him to free agency on the Kirk Cousins/Trumaine Johnson path. That makes July 15 a fairly firm deadline for Brown and the Chiefs.

Josh Jacobs, RB (Raiders)

After Las Vegas’ new regime passed on Jacobs’ fifth-year option, he became the first Raider to win the rushing title since Marcus Allen in 1985. Jacobs led the NFL in touches in 2022 (393) but was never a primary ball-carrier at Alabama; the former first-round pick should still have some tread on his tires. Running back extensions have become popular but divisive in recent years. While Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and (for now) Ezekiel Elliott are attached to deals worth at least $15MM per year, the Raiders can tag Jacobs at just $10.1MM.

Jacobs, 24, has expressed a desire to stay in Nevada, and Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler want to continue this partnership as well. With many quality running backs on track for free agency, new deals could be finalized before the Raiders become serious about Jacobs negotiations. Whether that happens this year or not, the former first-round pick is unlikely to reach the market.

Daron Payne, DT (Commanders)

After early-offseason extension rumblings, the Commanders did not move too far in this direction last year. They re-upped Terry McLaurin and let Payne play out a contract year. But Payne turned 2022 into a platform campaign that stands to make him one of this year’s top free agents. The Commanders are soon to have $26MM in additional cap space, by moving on from Carson Wentz, and the team will likely give strong consideration to keeping Payne off the market. The defensive tackle tag costs $18.94MM. Washington has begun Payne talks, but those are still in the early stages.

Washington has some mouths to feed on its defensive line, with both Montez Sweat and Chase Young now extension-eligible. The team already paid Payne’s Alabama and Washington D-tackle teammate, Jonathan Allen, and drafted another Crimson Tide interior rusher (Phidarian Mathis) in Round 2 last year. Mathis went down in Week 1, and Payne broke through for an 11.5-sack, 18-TFL season. A tag here is not an open-and-shut tag case, but it would be a tough blow for the Commanders to see their sack leader walk. Regrouping with Payne, 25, would make more sense, especially with the team not preparing to spend big at quarterback this offseason.

Tony Pollard, RB (Cowboys)

Seeming likelier by the week, a Pollard tag would keep an emerging playmaker with a light career workload in the fold. The Cowboys are believed to be strongly considering a tag here, even with Ezekiel Elliott‘s bloated contract on the books. Elliott taking less to stay — it would need to be a lot less — has already been floated, opening the door for his better-performing (in recent years, at least) backup to stick around on the $10.1MM number or via an extension.

It would be strange to tag a backup, but Pollard, 25, is essentially a Dallas starter. He matched Elliott with 12 touchdowns in 2022 and smashed his career-high scrimmage yards number with 1,378. Pollard’s 631 career touches rank just 24th among backs since 2019, pointing to a few prime years remaining on the horizon. With Elliott’s cap number near certain to move down from its present $16.7MM place and Pollard not at risk of seeing his fractured fibula affect his 2023 availability, the former fourth-round find should be back in Dallas.

The Giants’ decision

Daniel Jones, QB

Passing on Jones’ fifth-year option — an understandable decision, given Jones’ first three seasons — leads the Giants to one of the more interesting free agency quandaries in recent memory. After making Saquon Barkley a higher priority regarding in-season extension talks, Big Blue’s new regime has come around on Jones. The former No. 6 overall pick piloting the Giants to the divisional round for the first time in 11 years transformed his value from where it was entering the season, and GM Joe Schoen all but assured the fifth-year passer will be back with the team in 2023. Will that be on a long-term deal or via the tag?

If the Giants and Jones, 25, cannot find common ground before March 7, the tag will likely come out. The team encountered this situation with Leonard Williams in 2021 and tagged the trade acquisition for a second time. That preceded a monster extension. The Giants probably should be careful here, with two late-season matchups against a porous Vikings defense boosting Jones’ value — to the $35MM-per-year range. But the team also should be eager to see Jones in Brian Daboll‘s offense and surrounded by better pass catchers.

Saquon Barkley, RB

A Giants team that battled injuries and bad investments at wide receiver relied on Barkley for much of 2022. Losing the two-time Pro Bowler for nothing will bring considerable risk. Jones sitting atop the Giants’ to-do list may be a pivot from the midseason point, when Schoen referenced a Barkley tag. A positional value-based course change could send Barkley to free agency.

The Giants are believed to have offered Barkley a deal in the $12.5MM-per-year neighborhood, and while the former No. 2 overall pick cited his injury history (21 missed games from 2019-21) in saying he is not looking to reset the running back market, Schoen noted the sides’ 2022 negotiation did not come close to a deal. Barkley, 25, is believed to be seeking a contract near McCaffrey’s $16MM-per-year market-setting price. A $14MM-AAV compromise could be in play, but Barkley may also be keen on testing the market.

Tagging Jones at $32.4MM would clog the Giants’ cap ahead of free agency, whereas as a Barkley tag ($10.1MM) would not drain the team’s funds on the same level. Barkley can make a case he is worthy of the McCaffrey-Kamara tier, given his production (when healthy) and versatility — and the salary cap jumping nearly $30MM (to $224.8MM) since those stars’ 2020 extensions were finalized. But the Giants are not yet prepared to go much higher than the $12MM-AAV range — the second tier for running backs. Jones talks not producing a deal would put the Giants to a decision; Barkley could become one of the most talented backs to hit free agency.

While Barkley is a better player, Jones has become the Giants’ top priority. Tagging the quarterback would be far more expensive than cuffing Barkley. A Jones extension/Barkley tag scenario remains the best Giants path, but that can only come to fruition if Jones agrees to terms before March 7.

On tag radar

Jessie Bates, S (Bengals)

With Joe Burrow now extension-eligible, new contractual territory awaits the Bengals. Tee Higgins is also eligible for a new deal, with Germaine Pratt weeks away from free agency. Vonn Bell, a three-year Bengals starter who is also nearing free agency, would be a cheaper alternative at safety to keeping Bates on a second tag. Cincinnati also drafted potential Bates heir apparent Dax Hill in the first round. This all points to the Bengals letting Bates walk — as they did defenders Carl Lawson and William Jackson in 2021 — but the former second-round pick is still one of the league’s top safeties.

The Bengals and Bates never came close on an extension last year; the team’s conservative guarantee policy led to an offer of $16MM guaranteed at signing. While player personnel director Duke Tobin said last summer renegotiations this year will not be off the table, Bates will likely hit the market. The five-year Cincinnati starter, who will turn 26 next week, can be re-tagged at $15.5MM.

Jamel Dean, CB (Buccaneers)

The Bucs tagged Chris Godwin in each of the past two years and prioritized retaining their core players above all else during that span. But, with Tom Brady‘s void-years money hitting the Bucs’ cap in 2023, a Dean tag will be difficult to pull off. The Saints moving from $75MM-plus over the cap in February 2021 to creating room for a Marcus Williams tag, however, shows how teams can go from cap hell to carving out tag space. That said, Brady’s $35.1MM hitting the cap pushes the Bucs past $50MM over the 2023 salary ceiling.

Dean, 26, has been one of the team’s top players. The former third-round pick grades as Pro Football Focus’ No. 11 overall cornerback from 2020-22. This still looks like an unlikely proposition, with the corner tag at $18.14MM, but it should not be considered completely off the table.

Evan Engram, TE (Jaguars)

Tight ends Mike Gesicki, David Njoku and Dalton Schultz received tags in 2022, and the tight end tag again checking in as the third-cheapest ($11.36MM) this year makes the Jaguars keeping Engram off the market a logical step. The former Giants first-round pick broke through on his one-year Jags pact, filling a longstanding void for the franchise. Engram’s 766 receiving yards set a Jacksonville single-season tight end record. With mutual interest believed to exist, a tag as a bridge to a summer extension — ahead of Engram’s age-29 season — is a scenario to watch here.

C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S (Eagles)

The Eagles traded two Day 3 draft picks for Gardner-Johnson and moved him from corner to safety. After the ex-Saints slot defender led the NFL in interceptions, he will be in line for a payday. New Orleans and Gardner-Johnson, 25, could not come to terms last summer, leading to the trade, but Philadelphia wants to retain the imported DB. The Bengals kept Bates off the market last year with the safety tag, which checks in at $14.46MM this year. Given the volume of defenders the NFC champions have set for free agency, this looks like a longer-odds scenario.

Dre’Mont Jones, DL (Broncos)

Jones’ statistical production would not be in line with a tag. The talented defensive lineman has yet to surpass 6.5 sacks or 11 quarterback hits in a season, but the former third-round pick has offered consistency and earned praise from the front office. Following the Broncos’ decision to trade Bradley Chubb, GM George Paton identified Jones as a player the team wanted to keep. The advanced metrics also view Jones fondly; Pro Football Focus charts the former third-round pick in the top 20 for pressures since 2019. Jones is believed to be a higher priority compared to guard Dalton Risner, a fellow Denver free agent-to-be.

Sean Payton‘s team using a $19MM tag on a non-Pro Bowler would be risky during an offseason in which the draft capital-poor team — thanks to the Payton trade requiring a 2023 first-round pick — faces a key free agency stretch. Jones, 26, sticking around should also depend on whom the Broncos hire as defensive coordinator.

Jordan Poyer, S (Bills)

Buffalo defensive stalwarts Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds are ticketed for free agency, but with the NFL still grouping rush- and non-rush linebackers together under its tag formula, Edmunds is not a realistic tag candidate. The linebacker tag ($20.9MM) trails only the QB price. Poyer, 31, is coming off his first Pro Bowl season and has been one of the Bills’ steadiest players in the Sean McDermott era. Signed during McDermott’s first offseason, Poyer has inked two Bills contracts. He angled for a third, eventually agreeing to an incentive package, and became indispensable during a season in which the Bills lost Micah Hyde to a September neck injury and saw Damar Hamlin face one of the scariest health issues in NFL history in January.

Hamlin aims to return, while Hyde is under contract. But a Bills defense that has seen inconsistency at corner for years could still use Poyer. If the parties cannot strike a deal before March 7, the $14.5MM safety tag may not be too steep here. That said, the Bills may try to avoid a tag and save some free agency dough for Edmunds.

Geno Smith, QB (Seahawks)

A $32.4MM quarterback tag does sound too steep for Smith, his Comeback Player of the Year award notwithstanding. The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson on March 8, 2022; they re-signed Smith to a one-year, $3.5MM deal on April 14. That low-cost, incentive-laden accord effectively illustrated the NFL’s view of the former second-rounder. While Smith’s stunning season upped his value tremendously, it still seems unlikely the franchise tag will come into play. A transition tag — worth $29.5MM and involving no draft compensation — would be a more logical move.

But the top tag has been floated as a Smith-Seattle scenario. The sides have begun negotiations, and Smith’s camp figures to factor the tag salaries into the talks. This process still feels like it will end in a Smith medium-term deal. But after a 30-touchdown pass season that also included an NFL-high 69.8% completion rate, the 32-year-old passer setting a high price as the tag deadline nears would force the team to consider cuffing its starter.

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