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Poll: How Will 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo Saga Conclude?

July 4th, 2022 at 1:34pm CST by Sam Robinson

Since the Rams held off the No. 6-seeded 49ers to advance to Super Bowl LVI, the NFC’s second-place finisher has not made a secret of its plans with its four-plus-year starting quarterback. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have said a Jimmy Garoppolo trade will be the likely conclusion for this relationship.

Now that we are in July, when Garoppolo is expected to be cleared to throw again following his right shoulder surgery in March, more news surrounding this trade saga figures to emerge. Because Garoppolo’s procedure changed his trade market, Baker Mayfield rumors have been far more commonplace than rumblings of a Garoppolo deal. But the 49ers are planning to make an aggressive push here, to the point the team will let the 30-year-old passer discuss his through-2022 contract with other teams ahead of a trade.

The Panthers and Seahawks loom as the most obvious landing spots for the Super Bowl LIV starter, but clear barriers exist blocking those avenues. Although Carolina has been discussing Mayfield with Cleveland for months, the team not believed to be interested in trading for Garoppolo.

The $24.2MM salary has long been a non-starter for the Panthers, who have some degree of doubt about Garoppolo’s injuries and are carrying a fully guaranteed $18.9MM Sam Darnold salary. Garoppolo missed most of 2018 with an ACL tear, was sidelined for much of 2020 with ankle trouble, and battled calf, thumb and shoulder maladies last season. In his lone 49ers season without a notable injury (2019), Garoppolo finished 12th in QBR. The shoulder ailment hijacked a trade market the 49ers hoped would yield a Day 2 pick to one in which NFL insiders expect San Francisco to eventually cut bait rather than risk Garoppolo’s salary becoming guaranteed come Week 1.

Although precedent exists for intra-division QB trades, with the 2010 Donovan McNabb Philadelphia-to-Washington swap being a fairly recent example, it is difficult to envision the 49ers dealing Garoppolo to the Seahawks. Considering Seattle’s issue with Mayfield’s $18.9MM salary, it is also hard to imagine the team signing off on acquiring Garoppolo without a considerable contract adjustment. Still, Garoppolo making it to free agency — especially in a reality in which the Browns and Panthers agree on a Mayfield deal — opens the door to the longtime NFC West arm moving to Seattle. The Drew Lock–Geno Smith battle will continue into training camp, but the Seahawks going with either is a significant risk for a team that enjoyed tremendous QB security for a decade.

Other teams could lurk. The Browns are about to learn Deshaun Watson‘s punishment. If disciplinary officer Sue Robinson hands the embattled passer a lengthy suspension, or the NFL powers through with its desire for a full-season ban on appeal, would Cleveland make a play for Garoppolo? The Browns could adjust Garoppolo’s salary, dangling the carrot of the ninth-year veteran boosting his 2023 free agency prospects by playing behind a strong offensive line with a top-tier backfield. Considering where the Browns-Mayfield relationship stands, a move to acquire another veteran — in the event a Watson suspension long enough shakes the team’s faith in Jacoby Brissett — makes sense.

The Texans have also been connected to Garoppolo, whose Patriots tenure overlapped with Nick Caserio‘s. The second-year Houston GM has not been shy about acquiring middling veterans on short-term deals. But a Garoppolo arrival would affect Davis Mills‘ development. The 49ers waiting for a potential training camp injury changing Garoppolo’s market — similar to Sam Bradford‘s in 2016 — should be on the table as well.

While Shanahan and Lynch view a trade as the goal, both said keeping the passer is in play. Jed York also cited, in a historically extreme example, the 49ers’ former Joe Montana–Steve Young partnership — which ran from 1987-92, just before the salary cap era — as evidence Garoppolo and Trey Lance can play together for a second season.

The 49ers could certainly benefit from Garoppolo sticking around to push Lance. San Francisco stands to be an NFC contender, and Lance injects uncertainty into its signal-caller situation. But the team is eyeing a Deebo Samuel extension and sits 30th in cap space ($4.9MM). Lance struggling in camp and in the preseason could force the 49ers to keep Garoppolo and table extensions for Samuel and Nick Bosa — the latter of which the team appears willing to push to 2023 — but the team is currently preparing to move forward with the 2021 top-three pick.

What will be the Garoppolo 2022 endgame? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this situation in the comments section.

Largest 2022 Cap Hits: Offense

July 4th, 2022 at 11:58am CST by Sam Robinson

After the COVID-19 pandemic led to the second reduction in NFL salary cap history last year, the 2022 cap made a record jump. This year’s salary ceiling ($208.2MM) checks in $25.7MM north of the 2021 figure.

While quarterbacks’ salaries will continue to lead the way, a handful of blockers and skill-position players carry sizable cap numbers for 2022. A few of the quarterbacks that lead the way this year may not be tied to those numbers once the regular season begins. The 49ers, Browns and Ravens have made efforts to alter these figures via trades or extensions.

Here are the top 2022 salary cap hits on the offensive side of the ball:

  1. Ryan Tannehill, QB (Titans): $38.6MM
  2. Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs): $35.79MM
  3. Kirk Cousins, QB (Vikings): $31.42MM
  4. Jared Goff, QB (Lions): $31.15MM
  5. Aaron Rodgers, QB (Packers): $28.53MM
  6. Carson Wentz, QB (Commanders): $28.29MM
  7. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (49ers): $26.95MM
  8. Russell Wilson, QB (Broncos): $24MM
  9. Lamar Jackson, QB (Ravens): $23.02MM
  10. Kenny Golladay, WR (Giants): $21.2MM
  11. Garett Bolles, T (Broncos): $21MM
  12. Dak Prescott, QB (Cowboys): $19.73MM
  13. Derek Carr, QB (Raiders): $19.38MM
  14. D.J. Humphries, T (Cardinals): $19.33MM
  15. Keenan Allen, WR (Chargers): $19.2MM
  16. Taylor Decker, T (Lions): $18.9MM
  17. Sam Darnold, QB (Panthers): 18.89MM
  18. Baker Mayfield, QB (Browns): $18.89MM
  19. Matt Ryan, QB (Colts): $18.7MM
  20. Ronnie Stanley, T (Ravens): $18.55MM
  21. Donovan Smith, T (Buccaneers): $18.4MM
  22. Ezekiel Elliott, RB (Cowboys): $18.22MM
  23. DeAndre Hopkins, WR (Cardinals): $17.95MM
  24. Cooper Kupp, WR (Rams): $17.8MM
  25. Laremy Tunsil, T (Texans): $17.71MM
  • The Chiefs’ cap sheet looks a bit different this year, with Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Mathieu off the roster. But Mahomes’ cap number rockets from $7.4MM in 2021 to the league’s second-largest figure in 2022. This marks the first time Mahomes’ 10-year contract is set to count more than $10MM toward Kansas City’s cap, with the AFC West champs not yet restructuring the deal this year.
  • Tied to a few lucrative extensions since relocating to Minnesota, Cousins’ third Vikings deal dropped his cap number from $45MM. The fifth-year Vikings QB’s cap number is set to climb past $36MM in 2023.
  • Prior to negotiating his landmark extension in March, Rodgers was set to count more than $46MM on the Packers’ payroll.
  • The 49ers are aiming to move Garoppolo’s nonguaranteed money off their payroll. That figure becomes guaranteed in Week 1, providing a key date for the franchise. San Francisco is prepared to let Garoppolo negotiate contract adjustments with other teams to facilitate a trade.
  • Wilson counts $26MM on the Seahawks’ 2022 payroll, due to the dead money the NFC West franchise incurred by trading its 10-year starter in March.
  • Jackson, Darnold and Mayfield are attached to fifth-year option salaries. Jackson’s is higher due to the former MVP having made two Pro Bowls compared to his 2018 first-round peers’ zero. The 2020 CBA separated fifth-year option values by playing time and accomplishments. The Browns and Panthers have engaged in off-and-on negotiations on divvying up Mayfield’s salary for months, while a Jackson extension remains on the radar.
  • Golladay’s cap number jumped from $4.47MM last year to the highest non-quarterback figure among offensive players. The Giants wideout’s four-year deal calls for $21MM-plus cap hits from 2023-24.
  • Prior to being traded to the Colts, who adjusted their new starter’s contract, Ryan was set to carry an NFL-record $48MM cap hit this year. The Falcons are carrying a league-record $40.5MM dead-money charge after dealing their 14-year starter.
  • The Texans restructured Tunsil’s deal in March, dropping his 2022 cap hit from $26.6MM to its present figure. Because of the adjustment, Tunsil’s 2023 cap number resides at $35.2MM

Contract information courtesy of Over The Cap 

Extension Candidate: Rashad Fenton

July 3rd, 2022 at 9:47pm CST by Ely Allen

The Chiefs made some outside moves to address their secondary this offseason, but they may not want to overlook the players they have in the building. An underrated move the Chiefs should be looking at this summer is an early extension of cornerback Rashad Fenton. 

Kansas City was forced to make some moves after losing cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Charvarius Ward in free agency. The Chiefs used three of their draft picks this year on cornerbacks, including a first-round pick on the University of Washington’s Trent McDuffie, and even traded away a 2023 seventh-round pick for former-Texans cornerback Lonnie Johnson Jr. McDuffie is slotted to start opposite third-year cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who started all 15 games he appeared in last season. Fenton is likely the third cornerback on the depth chart with DeAndre Baker, who was drafted 171 picks before Fenton in the 2019 NFL Draft, slotting in at fourth.

Even though Fenton isn’t expected to start on a weekly basis for Kansas City next season, there is a good amount of evidence to suggest that extending him before his contract year would be extremely beneficial for the Chiefs. Not only has Fenton shouldered more and more responsibility with playing time over each of his three seasons, earning more starts and defensive snaps each year, but he’s also moved around the field over the years.

As a rookie, Fenton played mostly in the slot, earning one pick and four passes defensed, as well as a forced fumble and a quarterback hit. In his second season, Fenton split his time between the slot and the outside while making three starts. He totaled one interception, seven passes defensed, and added a tackle for loss, as well. Last season, he played 80% of his snaps on the outside during his eight starts, according to Pro Football Focus, leading to seven more passes defensed, one forced fumble, and a career-high 49 total tackles.

Not only has he displayed the ability to handle the increased responsibility of playing time, but his movement around the secondary provides an extremely valuable versatility, showing he can play in any cornerback role that he’s asked to play in. Another factor that could benefit Kansas City is Fenton’s draft position in the sixth round. According to a data study done by Zach Drapkin at Pro Football Focus (subscription required), late-round draft picks are historically underpaid on their second contracts. Not that the Chiefs would intentionally short their players, but utilizing precedent could help the Chiefs extend Fenton at a bargain-price.

When trying to gauge the range of what an extension might look like for Fenton, there are a few examples that we can look at. Eagles cornerback Avonte Maddox has been an intermittent starter in Philadelphia over the years in the slot and recently signed a three-year, $22.5MM contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $7.5MM. Patriots nickel cornerback Jonathan Jones signed a three-year, $21MM contract in 2019. Neither Maddox nor Jones were drafted highly with Maddox being a fourth-round pick and Jones signing with New England as an undrafted free agent, initially.

Another fourth-round pick that recently signed a new extension was Bills cornerback Taron Johnson, who signed a three-year, $24MM deal last October. I like this comparison because, like Fenton, Johnson’s role on the field increased incrementally each year until last year he served as a full-time starter. It wouldn’t be the Chiefs’ ideal scenario, but, if McDuffie isn’t quite ready to start Week 1 for whatever reason, I believe they’d be fully confident in trotting Fenton out there to start opposite Sneed.

Essentially, most of the deals on these later-round draft picks are for three years and they’ve risen over the last few years from an AAV of $7MM to $8MM per year. Based on the constant inflation of NFL salaries and depending on how much loyalty the Chiefs want to show Fenton, I would predict that an extension for Fenton might have an AAV of anywhere from $8MM-$9MM. A three-year, $26MM contract would be a more-than-generous offer that would still land Kansas City an affordable, dependable, and versatile young cornerback. With Sneed and McDuffie on rookie deals, this would extend the time frame of having the three young cornerbacks on relatively affordable contracts at least through the 2023 season.

Release Candidate: Seahawks RB Chris Carson

July 3rd, 2022 at 7:55pm CST by Ely Allen

About a month ago, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll seemed ready to envision a future for Seattle’s running backs room that didn’t include Chris Carson, hinting that the 27-year-old’s career in the NFL could be coming to an end following a neck injury that sidelined him for the majority of the 2021 NFL season. Days later, Carson made it clear that he had no intentions of hanging up his cleats. 

“Oh, we still going right now,” Carson said, via Heavy.com’s Jonathan Adams. “I see myself playing until I feel like stopping. My mindset is never to give up, so I’m staying positive like I said, and [will] continue to fight and get back onto the field.”

After a broken ankle kept Carson from being a full-time starter in his rookie season, Carson bounced back, leading the team in rushing yards for the next three years. His consistency, paired with the injury history of backup running back Rashaad Penny, landed Carson a two-year deal to stay in Seattle during last year’s offseason. Four weeks into the season, though, Carson suffered a neck injury that would require surgery, prematurely ending his season and leading to the comments mentioned above from Carroll and Carson.

While there doesn’t seem to be any bad blood between the two parties, the moves Seattle has made recently make it seem as if Carroll has no intention of handing the ball off to Carson ever again. The most recent move was spending a second-round pick on Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker was a bell-cow back for the Spartans last year carrying the ball 263 times for 1,636 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. The next closest running back on the team had 70 rushing attempts for 278 yards. Walker’s ability to carry an offense is extremely attractive to a team that wants to thrive on the ground but hasn’t had the health to do so.

The former first-round pick, Penny, ended last season on fire rushing for 632 yards and six touchdowns over four of the last five games of the season. While Penny has certainly had his own issues staying healthy, he was drafted with the intention that he could eventually be the team’s franchise running back. If Penny starts next season anywhere near how he ended 2021, a recovering Carson is going to have a tough time seeing the field.

Behind Penny and Walker, the Seahawks also roster two former Miami Hurricanes in Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas. While neither has added much value to the running game over the past few years, both hold tremendous value on special teams that seems to solidify their roster status year in and year out. Other running backs on the roster are Darwin Thompson and Josh Johnson, who will likely end up on the practice squad or may be camp cuts.

With Penny, Walker, Homer, and Dallas all in line to make the 53-man roster, it starts to become difficult to justify a fifth roster spot for a running back who would only split carries with Penny and Walker. Combining that roster logjam with Carroll’s sentiments about Carson’s career potentially being over, it makes sense to start looking into the idea of offloading Carson’s contract.

The team could work with Carson to look for an ideal trade destination in an effort to return some value from the departure. If not, though, the Seahawks still would stand to benefit in cap savings. Cutting Carson would only leave Seattle with $1MM in dead cap while creating $4.6MM in cap space. Carson’s career may not be over, but there’s a real possibility that his time in Seattle may soon come to an end.

Extension Candidate: Marquise Brown

July 3rd, 2022 at 1:13pm CST by Rory Parks

The Cardinals are interested in an extension for draft-day trade acquisition Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, and while Brown himself is presumably willing to talk contract, it is unclear where negotiations stand at this point, or if they have even commenced. Brown is scheduled to earn a $2.1MM salary in 2022 (the final year of his rookie deal), and a fully-guaranteed $13.4MM in 2023 under the fifth-year option of the rookie contract.

The 2019 draft class of wide receivers, which includes the likes of Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, and Terry McLaurin, has been a key source of material at PFR in recent months, as those players became extension-eligible for the first time this offseason and either have contributed, or soon will contribute, to the booming receiver market. A.J. Brown landed a $25MM/year contract from the Eagles upon being traded to Philadelphia from the Titans, and McLaurin just agreed to a $23.3MM/year deal with the Commanders. As Joel Corry of CBS Sports recently tweeted, four wide receivers enjoyed $20MM+ AAVs when the offseason began, and there are now 12 receivers who are sitting at or above that threshold (despite the release of Julio Jones). Samuel and Metcalf seem poised to join the club at some point in the near future.

Marquise Brown, the No. 25 overall pick of the Ravens in the 2019 draft, has not yet produced at the same level as his above-mentioned contemporaries, but that can be at least partially explained by the fact that his three years in Baltimore were spent in a run-centric offense focused upon the dual-threat capabilities of quarterback Lamar Jackson. The passing scheme of offensive coordinator Greg Roman — who has served as OC since Brown’s rookie year — has been heavily criticized for being too simplistic and predictable, and Brown’s trade request was largely a function of that system.

“It was just … my happiness,” Brown said when asked about his desire for a trade. “I talked to Lamar about it after my second year. And then after my third year, leading up to the end of the season, you know, [Jackson] wasn’t playing. I let him know again, like, ‘Yeah, bro, I can’t do it.’

“You know, it’s not really on Lamar, like I love Lamar. It was just, you know, it’s just the system just wasn’t for me personally. You know, I love all my teammates. I love the guys. It was just something I had to think about for myself.”

Brown’s diminutive stature (5-9, 170) will likely prevent him from ever becoming a true “alpha” receiver, but he possesses elite speed and is a solid enough route runner. In head coach Kliff Kingsbury‘s offense, he will have a chance to shine, although it will be interesting to see if the absence of DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the 2022 season will allow him to earn a larger target share and thrive, or if it will make his life more difficult since opposing defenses will not have to key in on Hopkins.

At present, Spotrac estimates Brown’s market value to be a little over $17MM per season, suggesting that he could reasonably expect a four-year, ~$68MM deal if he were a free agent right now. Again, there is no way of knowing what Brown’s camp is targeting at this point, though it could be that the Oklahoma product is content to prove that he is worthy of a larger contract by living up to his potential in Kingsbury’s aerial attack.

Brown managed to crack the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in 2021, though it required 146 targets to get there, and his 11.1 yards-per-reception rate — which was the lowest mark of his career — belies his abilities as a deep threat. It stands to reason that the Cardinals, who gave up the No. 23 overall pick of this year’s draft to acquire Brown and the No. 100 overall pick, would want to extend Hollywood before he can truly break out, but Brown himself might hold off unless Arizona is willing to bet on his upside by making him yet another $20MM man.

This Date In Transactions History: Jets DL Sheldon Richardson Suspended Four Games

July 2nd, 2022 at 12:38pm CST by Ben Levine

Sheldon Richardson had a tumultuous 2015 offseason, and his issues (and, potentially, the beginning of the end of his Jets tenure) started on this date seven years ago. On July 2, 2015, the Jets defensive lineman was slapped with a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

Richardson was a first-round pick by the Jets in 2013. After winning Defensive Rookie of the Year during the 2013 campaign, Richardson followed that up with a Pro Bowl season in 2014. That year, Richardson collected 67 tackles and eight sacks in 16 starts. Things were looking good for the younger pass rusher, but then trouble hit.

During the 2015 offseason, Richardson was hit with a four-game ban for a substance abuse violation. We later learned that the player was suspended for marijuana use. Nowadays, players only face a fine for marijuana use, a rule that was negotiated in 2020 as part of the CBA. In 2015, there were several stages to the league’s policy for marijuana use before a four-game suspension could be handed down. In other words, this wasn’t Richardson’s first positive test, and after several warnings, the NFL finally decided to slap the player’s wrist with a suspension.

Only two weeks later, Richardson was arrested in Missouri and charged with resisting arrest and traffic violations. According to reports, the player was street racing at speeds that exceeded 140 miles per hour, and he later tried to evade police who were trying to pull him over. When the car was finally pulled over, it smelled of marijuana, and officers later found a loaded handgun under the driver’s seat. The car was also occupied by two other men and a 12-year-old child. While Richardson avoided drug, gun, or child endangerment charges, he was later found guilty of reckless driving and resisting arrest.

Following his suspension, Richardson was productive in his 11 games in 2015, finishing with 35 tackles and five sacks. He was hit with a one-game ban in 2016 for his previous arrest, and while he still managed to play a significant role, his pass-rushing ability seemed to decline.

Thanks in part to his off-the-field issues, his declining production, and his hefty $8MM fully guaranteed salary for 2017 (via the Jets picking up his fifth-year option), Richardson found himself on the trade block following the 2016 season. The player refused to take a pay cut with any new squad, limiting the Jets’ trade opportunities. Eventually, the organization found a taker in the Seahawks, who gave up a future second-round pick and Jermaine Kearse.

Richardson got into 15 games during the 2017 season, but the Seahawks decided to move on after he finished with only 44 tackles and one sack. He had a bounce-back season in Minnesota in 2018, finishing with 4.5 sacks. That performance earned him a three-year contract from the Browns, and following 32 games and 7.5 sacks between two seasons, the veteran was cut. He rejoined the Vikings last offseason, and he finished the season with 39 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 17 games (seven starts).

With the Jets having used the 13th-overall pick on Richardson, they didn’t get the best return on investment during his four years with the team. Fortunately for the organization, they somewhat managed to save face with the assets they received from Seattle. The Jets got two solid seasons out of Kearse (including a career year in 2017), and the second-round pick was ultimately used in the trade with the Colts for the third-overall pick, a selection that ultimately turned into QB Sam Darnold.

Richardson’s declining production and hefty salary certainly played major roles in the Jets looking to eventually move on. However, the off-the-field issues undeniably played a role, and those issues seemingly started to become public knowledge on this date in 2015.

Will Packers Add Veteran Wide Receiver?

July 1st, 2022 at 3:57pm CST by Sam Robinson

The NFC’s contender tier, as could be expected, is flush with marquee wide receivers. The Rams gave Cooper Kupp a near-top-market extension last month, while Mike Evans leads Tampa Bay’s deep crop. Deebo Samuel trade noise has quieted, with the Eagles and Cardinals trading first-round picks to acquire 2019 draftees A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown, respectively. The Cowboys traded Amari Cooper but still roster ascending talent CeeDee Lamb.

Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas and the recently extended Terry McLaurin also reside in the conference. These staffing efforts differ strikingly from the team that has held the past two NFC No. 1 seeds. The Packers ended (for 2022, at least) the drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers‘ status by extending their latest all-time great quarterback, but his top two wideouts — the tagged-and-traded Davante Adams and free agency departure Marquez Valdes-Scantling — are now in the AFC West. The Packers were prepared to pay Adams more than the Raiders, and they made a push to re-sign Valdes-Scantling. The fallout moved the team to an unusual place.

The Packers have rumored as interested in a late-offseason addition at the position, and The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman notes a free agent should not be considered out of the question here. The NFC North kingpins have made efforts to staff their receiver spot; those moves just have not matched some of the many impact transactions other teams have made during a historically action-packed offseason for the wideout position. A mix of unproven players and complementary-type veterans comprise Green Bay’s receiving corps, laying the groundwork for an interesting experiment or for another piece to be added.

Green Bay signed Sammy Watkins in mid-April, inking the former top-five pick to a one-year deal worth $1.85MM. Watkins, 29, continues to see his salaries decrease as his production and availability wane, though he did produce under then-OC Matt LaFleur with the Rams in 2017. Watkins joins Randall Cobb, 31, as experienced players in Green Bay’s pass-catching group. Allen Lazard could be the player who benefits most from the Adams and Valdes-Scantling exits. The Packers kept the former UDFA via a second-round restricted free agent tender ($3.99MM), which he signed just before the mid-June deadline. Cobb, a 2021 trade acquisition whose Texans-constructed/Packers-adjusted contract runs through 2022, is attached to a $4.14MM cap number.

With rookie-contract cogs Amari Rodgers (2021 third-rounder), Christian Watson (Round 2, 2022) and Romeo Doubs (Round 4, 2022), the Packers are not spending much on the receiver position. Rodgers did not carve out a role as a rookie, and Watson coming from a Division I-FCS program figures to produce a learning curve early. The modern Packers certainly have a history of success with second-round wideouts — from Greg Jennings to Jordy Nelson to Cobb to Adams — and they traded up 19 spots for the North Dakota State prospect. But expecting immediate starter-level production may be a asking a lot. Nelson, Cobb and Adams did not exceed 500 yards as rookies.

Given their commitments to Aaron Rodgers, David Bakhtiari and Aaron Jones on offense and a defense full of first-round picks and newly extended vets (Jaire Alexander, De’Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas), sacrifices elsewhere are certainly necessary. But the team’s refusal to use first-round picks at receiver perplexes to some degree, with this year’s two-defender first round pushing that trend to a new level. The Lazard-Cobb-Watkins-Watson-Rodgers-Doubs sextet is a lock to be on the roster, Schneidman adds, noting that a seventh player — be it a special-teamer like Juwann Winfree or Malik Taylor, or a free agent — could round out the group.

This contingent lags behind the deep group Aaron Rodgers worked with to start his QB1 run in the late 2000s and early 2010s, and it obviously lacks an Adams-type presence. Will the two-time reigning MVP be able to coax sufficient production from this mixed bag of auxiliary vets and second- or third-day draftees? Or are the Packers taking too big a risk in what could be one of Rodgers’ final prime years? The team passing on Jarvis Landry suggests confidence the former viewpoint.

As should be expected entering July, the notable free agent options carry age- or health-related red flags. (Antonio Brown carries those and others.) T.Y. Hilton brings both, while Emmanuel Sanders — though still productive, as evidenced by his 626-yard Bills showing — would be the league’s oldest receiver in 2022. The nomadic WR2 turned 35 in March. Will Fuller has been connected to the Packers in the past, and the ex-Texans deep threat is just 28. But he played three games last season. Cole Beasley produced in the slot past 30 in Buffalo, but Green Bay has inside players in Cobb and Amari Rodgers who have been in LaFleur’s system for over a year now.

Julio Jones, 33 will be enshrined in Canton at some point, and the prospect of Rodgers targeting the All-Decade wideout intrigues more than Jones playing in a run-first Titans offense. But Jones’ hamstring trouble can be classified as chronic at this point. The ex-Falcon dynamo has not been connected to any team since being a Tennessee cap casualty.

Odell Beckham Jr. might make the most sense, if the goal here is to bring in a prime talent that can change the equation during the season’s second half. But the Packers may need to act early, even before it is known if their holdover group can be a Super Bowl-level nucleus. Beckham is not expected to be ready until around November, and although he has suffered two ACL tears in a 15-month span, the former superstar showed with the Rams high-end play remains in his skillset. The Packers pursued OBJ last year, and while the Rams have consistently indicated they want him back (and generally do what it takes to acquire splashy vets), an obvious case exists Green Bay needs the 29-year-old standout more.

Trade candidates figure to emerge (the Giants already have some), but for the time being, the Packers are about to attempt a fascinating roster-construction effort — one that surpasses the post-Tyreek Hill Chiefs for uncertainty — as they transition from their Adams-centered arsenals.

The NFL’s Longest-Tenured GMs

June 30th, 2022 at 10:48am CST by Sam Robinson

Wednesday, we took a look at how the 2022 offseason changed the HC landscape. While 10 new sideline leaders are in place for 2022, not quite as much turnover transpired on the general manager front. Five new decision-makers, however, have moved to the top of teams’ front office hierarchies over the past six months.

The Bears, Giants, Raiders and Vikings rebooted their entire operations, hiring new HC-GM combos. The Minnesota move bumped out one of the previous top-10 longest-tenured GMs, with 16-year Vikings exec Rick Spielman no longer in power in the Twin Cities. The Steelers’ shakeup took the NFL’s longest-tenured pure GM out of the mix. Kevin Colbert was with the Steelers since 2000, and although he is still expected to remain with the team in a reduced capacity, the 22-year decision-maker stepped down shortly after Ben Roethlisberger wrapped his career.

Twelve teams have now hired a new GM in the past two offseasons, though a bit more staying power exists here compared to the HC ranks. Two GMs (the Cardinals’ Steve Keim and Chargers’ Tom Telesco) have begun their 10th years at the helms of their respective front offices. They have hired three HCs apiece. The Buccaneers’ Jason Licht is closing in on a decade in power in Tampa Bay; Licht will now work with his fourth HC in Todd Bowles. Beyond that, a bit of a gap exists. But a handful of other executives have been in power for at least five seasons.

Here is how long every GM or de facto GM has been in place with his respective franchise:

  1. Jerry Jones (Dallas Cowboys): April 18, 1989[1]
  2. Mike Brown (Cincinnati Bengals): August 5, 1991[2]
  3. Bill Belichick (New England Patriots): January 27, 2000[3]
  4. Mickey Loomis (New Orleans Saints): May 14, 2002
  5. John Schneider (Seattle Seahawks): January 19, 2010; signed extension in 2021
  6. Howie Roseman (Philadelphia Eagles): January 29, 2010; signed extension in 2022
  7. Les Snead (Los Angeles Rams): February 10, 2012; signed extension in 2019
  8. Steve Keim (Arizona Cardinals): January 8, 2013; signed extension in 2022
  9. Tom Telesco (Los Angeles Chargers): January 9, 2013; signed extension in 2018
  10. Jason Licht (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): January 21, 2014; signed extension in 2021
  11. Chris Grier (Miami Dolphins): January 4, 2016[4]
  12. Jon Robinson (Tennessee Titans): January 14, 2016; signed extension in 2022
  13. John Lynch (San Francisco 49ers): January 29, 2017; signed extension in 2020
  14. Chris Ballard (Indianapolis Colts): January 30, 2017; signed extension in 2021
  15. Brandon Beane (Buffalo Bills): May 9, 2017; signed extension in 2020
  16. Brett Veach (Kansas City Chiefs): July 11, 2017; signed extension in 2020
  17. Brian Gutekunst (Green Bay Packers): January 7, 2018
  18. Eric DeCosta (Baltimore Ravens): January 7, 2019
  19. Joe Douglas (New York Jets): June 7, 2019
  20. Andrew Berry (Cleveland Browns): January 27, 2020
  21. Nick Caserio (Houston Texans): January 5, 2021
  22. George Paton (Denver Broncos): January 13, 2021
  23. Scott Fitterer (Carolina Panthers): January 14, 2021
  24. Brad Holmes (Detroit Lions): January 14, 2021
  25. Terry Fontenot (Atlanta Falcons): January 19, 2021
  26. Trent Baalke (Jacksonville Jaguars): January 21, 2021
  27. Martin Mayhew (Washington Commanders): January 22, 2021
  28. Joe Schoen (New York Giants): January 21, 2022
  29. Ryan Poles (Chicago Bears): January 25, 2022
  30. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (Minnesota Vikings): January 26, 2022
  31. Dave Ziegler (Las Vegas Raiders): January 30, 2022
  32. Omar Khan (Pittsburgh Steelers): May 24, 2022

Footnotes:

  1. Jones has been the Cowboys’ de facto general manager since former GM Tex Schramm resigned in April 1989.
  2. Brown has been the Bengals’ de facto GM since taking over as the team’s owner in August 1991.
  3. Belichick has been the Patriots’ de facto GM since shortly after being hired as the team’s head coach in January 2000.
  4. Although Grier was hired in 2016, he became the Dolphins’ top football exec on Dec. 31, 2018

The NFL’s Longest-Tenured Head Coaches

June 29th, 2022 at 11:08am CST by Sam Robinson

The NFL experienced a busy offseason on the coaching front. A whopping 10 teams changed coaches during the 2022 offseason, with the Buccaneers’ late-March switch pushing the number into double digits.

Fourteen of the league’s 32 head coaches were hired in the past two offseasons, illustrating the increased pressure the NFL’s sideline leaders face in today’s game. Two of the coaches replaced this year left on their own. Sean Payton vacated his spot in second on the longest-tenured HCs list by stepping down from his 16-year Saints post in February, while Bruce Arians has repeatedly insisted his Bucs exit was about giving his defensive coordinator a chance with a strong roster and not a Tom Brady post-retirement power play.

While Bill Belichick has been the league’s longest-tenured HC for many years, Payton’s exit moved Mike Tomlin up to No. 2. Mike Zimmer‘s firing after nine seasons moved Frank Reich into the top 10. Reich’s HC opportunity only came about because Josh McDaniels spurned the Colts in 2018, but Indianapolis’ backup plan has led the team to two playoff brackets and has signed an extension. Reich’s seat is hotter in 2022, however, after a January collapse. Linked to numerous HC jobs over the past several offseasons, McDaniels finally took another swing after his Broncos tenure ended quickly.

As 2022’s training camps approach, here are the NFL’s longest-tenured HCs:

  1. Bill Belichick (New England Patriots): January 27, 2000
  2. Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): January 27, 2007; extended through 2024
  3. John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): January 19, 2008; extended through 2025
  4. Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks): January 9, 2010; extended through 2025
  5. Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs): January 4, 2013; extended through 2025
  6. Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills): January 11, 2017; extended through 2025
  7. Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams): January 12, 2017; extended through 2023
  8. Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers): February 6, 2017; extended through 2025
  9. Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans): January 20, 2018; signed extension in February 2022
  10. Frank Reich (Indianapolis Colts): February 11, 2018; extended through 2026
  11. Kliff Kingsbury (Arizona Cardinals): January 8, 2019; extended through 2027
  12. Matt LaFleur (Green Bay Packers): January 8, 2019
  13. Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals): February 4, 2019; extended through 2026
  14. Ron Rivera (Washington Football Team): January 1, 2020
  15. Matt Rhule (Carolina Panthers): January 7, 2020
  16. Mike McCarthy (Dallas Cowboys): January 7, 2020
  17. Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns): January 13, 2020
  18. Robert Saleh (New York Jets): January 15, 2021
  19. Arthur Smith (Atlanta Falcons): January 15, 2021
  20. Brandon Staley (Los Angeles Chargers): January 17, 2021
  21. Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions): January 20, 2021
  22. Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles): January 21, 2021
  23. Nathaniel Hackett (Denver Broncos): January 27, 2022
  24. Matt Eberflus (Chicago Bears): January 27, 2022
  25. Brian Daboll (New York Giants): January 28, 2022
  26. Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders): January 30, 2022
  27. Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings): February 2, 2022
  28. Doug Pederson (Jacksonville Jaguars): February 3, 2022
  29. Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins): February 6, 2022
  30. Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints): February 7, 2022
  31. Lovie Smith (Houston Texans): February 7, 2022
  32. Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): March 30, 2022

Extension Candidate: Tremaine Edmunds

June 28th, 2022 at 8:02pm CST by Ben Levine

While the Bills quickly extended Josh Allen for more than $250MM last offseason, another first-round pick from that 2018 draft class remains unsigned. Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is heading into the final year of his five-year rookie pact, but there hasn’t been much reported progress regarding an extension.

Following a 100-plus-tackle season as a rookie and Pro Bowl nods in both 2019 and 2020, Edmunds seemed to be setting himself up for a sizable deal. The linebacker was still productive in 2021, but he finished with a career-low 108 tackles and only one QB hit. Pro Football Focus wasn’t particularly fond of his performance this past season, ranking him 61st among 87 eligible linebackers (although, for what it’s worth, the site has never been a fan of Edmunds).

2022 will ultimately be a key year when it comes to Edmunds’ earning potential. The 24-year-old was graded as one of the league’s better run-stopping linebackers, but he was among the worst in coverage, so an improvement in that area could good a long way in Edmunds securing a hefty contract. The linebacker’s coaches have also been focused on improving the player’s big-play ability; through 61 career games, Edmunds has four interceptions (half coming in his rookie season), two forced fumbles (both coming in his rookie year), and 5.5 sacks (including zero in 2021).

“I think – and he knows this – you want more splash plays,” defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier recently told Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News. “You want those big plays in ball games. That play he made against the Texans, the interception he came up with, that was a huge play in that ballgame. It really helped propel us along the way to a really good performance. And more plays like that.”

So what could Edmunds expect for his next contract? Two linebackers selected in the second round of the 2018 draft inked massive extensions with their teams. Darius Leonard got five years, $99.25MM ($52.5MM) from the Colts, but he’s firmly established himself as one of the top players at the position. Harold Landry signed a five-year, $87.5MM ($52.5MM guaranteed) deal with the Titans, but Edmunds hasn’t come close to matching Landry’s pass-rushing prowess. Either the player’s camp or the Bills could be waiting to see how negotiations unfold for Bradley Chubb and/or Roquan Smith; both linebackers were off the board before Edmunds in 2018.

If the LB franchise tag remains around $18MM next offseason, then that could be a logical route if the two sides don’t seem destined for an extension. The player is also set to make a bit less than $13MM in 2022. An extension worth $15MM per year seems to make sense from a financial standpoint, but it’d be a bit surprising if either side was willing to compromise on that number right now…the Bills could be eyeing a discount with the risk of paying $18MM in 2023, while Edmunds may not be willing to settle for a, say, four-year deal worth $60MM when he has the potential to make much more following a strong 2022 campaign.

Fortunately, while Edmunds may have to wait until the end of the season to sign his next deal, his head seems to be in the right place.

“Obviously, you think about it a little bit, but I can’t control that,” Edmunds said in early June (via Fitzgerald). “All I can control is how I come out each and every day, and just work. All that kind of stuff, you kind of just put it on the top shelf and do the stuff that you’ve been doing this whole time.”

 

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