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Offseason In Review: Minnesota Vikings

August 14th, 2022 at 10:15pm CST by Sam Robinson

After becoming a perennial contender early in Mike Zimmer‘s stay, the wheels fell off for the Vikings over the coach’s final two seasons. The crusty HC’s time had run out with the franchise, which opted to reboot — on the sidelines and front office, at least. The Vikings will make a change at right guard and should have Irv Smith Jr. back from injury, but despite hiring a new GM-HC combo, they will feature nearly the same offensive starting lineup from 2021. Last year’s unit ranked 16th in DVOA; how high can the Vikings’ fifth Kirk Cousins-led attack rise? The results have not been what the franchise sought with the veteran quarterback, but Kevin O’Connell — one of the veteran quarterback’s former position coaches — will be tasked with revitalizing the offense.

Of the teams that hired new HCs and GMs this year, the Vikings look to be in the best shape for 2022. In an NFC that does not appear as deep as the AFC — due partially to the 2021- and 2022-established rebuilds transpiring within the conference — Minnesota figures to be in the mix.

Free agency additions:

Minnesota’s defense, however, will look different. Several new starters will be on the field in Week 1. Smith, 30 in September, resides as the most notable of the newcomers, given his Packers production (when healthy). Smith backed out of a Ravens return, spurning his former team’s four-year, $35MM offer. Five days later, he was back in the NFC North. It is unlikely Smith’s Ravens offer contained much in the way of guarantees at signing, after he missed 16 games last season. The Vikings did include $11.5MM in total guarantees, protecting Smith — to some degree — after his injury-marred 2021.

But Minnesota having the two-time Green Bay Pro Bowler healthy opens up possibilities. The Vikings quietly ranked second in the NFL last season with 51 sacks. A depth effort produced that total. No single Viking eclipsed eight sacks, and only one (D.J. Wonnum) recorded more than six. This group intrigues, especially with Danielle Hunter (six sacks in seven games) due back from his latest injury. Smith being a prime Everson Griffen-type Hunter bookend would do a lot for this revamped defense.

The Packers bailed on Smith’s four-year, $66MM deal in March. His 2021 back injury and surgery-requiring setback concerns, but the former Ravens draftee did live up to his Packers contract in 2019 and ’20. He ranked fifth and eighth, respectively, in pressures and combined for 26 sacks in that span. Still, the Vikings’ Hunter-Smith edge tandem brings considerable variance due to the late-20s injury troubles each has encountered.

The Bills tried to retain Phillips, but as they added Tim Settle and were waiting on Von Miller‘s decision, the Vikings came in with a better offer. A former third-round pick, Phillips saw an early-season ACL tear interrupt his climb in 2019. By 2021, the Stanford product was back in form. Pro Football Focus graded Phillips as a top-15 interior D-lineman last season — a Bills-best mark for 2021. PFF slotted Phillips sixth in run defense among D-tackles, giving the Vikings a potentially formidable run-stopping duo with he and Dalvin Tomlinson. Neither has proven to be too productive as a pass rusher, however. The Vikings were connected to Ndamukong Suh earlier this summer, but nothing materialized. Two-stint Viking Sheldon Richardson also remains available. Does the team need to add an inside rusher?

In going from Anthony Barr to Hicks, the Vikings shifted from one 30-year-old defender to another alongside Eric Kendricks. While injury-prone in Philadelphia, Hicks’ Arizona work should prevent Minnesota from worrying about three of its four linebacker starters being health concerns. Hicks did not miss a game with the Cardinals and racked up tackle totals of 150, 118 and 116. Although Hicks’ tackle for loss number dropped from the 11 he tallied in both 2019 and ’20 to seven last season, PFF gave him a top-30 linebacker grade — his best as a Cardinal.

Production- and durability-wise, Hicks should be a capable Kendricks sidekick for at least 2022. Given the ages of the duo (Kendricks is also 30), the Vikings’ new regime will likely give the off-ball linebacker spot a longer look ahead of the 2023 draft. They already added a potential future piece in third-rounder Brian Asamoah, but Kendricks and Hicks look like the Vikes’ three-down ‘backers for 2022.

Minnesota also imported Sullivan from Green Bay. Although the slot cornerback’s price was a fraction of Smith’s, he played a steady role for back-to-back No. 1-seeded Packer teams. Sullivan, 26, logged 71% and 77% defensive snap rates over the past two years, respectively. He did allow a career-high four touchdowns last season, rating outside the top 90 at corner (per PFF). Davis looks set to replace Oli Udoh at right guard, having played the position (among others in a versatile career) with the Dolphins. Reed, who subbed in for six Colts starts last season and was a full-time Panthers starter in 2020, is pushing Garrett Bradbury at center.

Re-signings:

Peterson, Jim Brown and Barry Sanders are the only players with eight Pro Bowl nods by age 28. Looking to be sailing to the Hall of Fame, the former Cardinals dynamo saw a 2019 PED suspension inject a degree of uncertainty.

The 32-year-old cornerback has not been the same since that ban. This is not to say the former top-five pick’s early-career greatness was drug-assisted, but Peterson showed his age early. His age-29 season brought worse marks in both yards per target and passer rating as the closest defender, and he did not get back on track in 2020. This led to a modest 2021 market and a one-year, $10MM Vikings accord. While Peterson played better under Zimmer, his status makes the Vikings’ cornerback corps one of the team’s bigger questions.

Peterson’s 2021 bounce-back effort (top-60 PFF grade, improvements in both yards per target and completion percentage allowed) likely helped his case for Canton enshrinement. For 2022, however, the Vikings need one last strong season. Their cornerback puzzle does not look to fit without it. The Jeff Gladney selection turning ugly then tragic set the organization back, and 2020 third-rounder Cameron Dantzler has not been a steady answer, either. With Andrew Booth a rookie coming off an injury-limited offseason, Peterson — after returning at less than half his 2021 salary — will be counted on again.

Notable losses:

Zimmer mainstays Griffen, Barr and Alexander depart after 11, eight and five Vikings seasons, respectively. Barr and Griffen were full-timers on the Vikings’ 2015, ’17 and ’19 playoff teams. Alexander arrived in 2016. This trio’s exit leaves Kendricks, Hunter and Harrison Smith as the last men standing from that nucleus — one responsible for top-five scoring defenses from 2015-19 and helping Minnesota to three NFC brackets with three starting quarterbacks. Zimmer’s 2010s troops joined the Chris Doleman– and Keith Millard-fronted units of the late 1980s as the Vikings’ most impressive post-“Purple People Eaters” defensive cores, but that group’s run is winding down.

Barr accepted a pay cut in 2021, and after he missed 20 games over the past two seasons, the Vikings did not show much interest in a third contract for the former top-10 pick. It cost the Cowboys just $2MM to add him. A Pro Bowler from 2015-18, Barr made a successful transition from college edge to a 4-3 outside linebacker under Zimmer. The Jets were close to luring him away to play more of an edge role in 2019, but the Vikings paid up to keep him. That second Barr deal did not work out. The same can be said for Alexander’s return. After spending 2020 in Cincinnati, the former second-round pick was PFF’s worst-graded corner last season.

Although Griffen ran into another unusual off-field issue that led to a hiatus, which came three years after he previously needed to step away from the Vikings, he still recorded five sacks last season and was one of the most productive Vikings pass rushers in the team’s 61-year history. While Alan Page, Jim Marshall and Carl Eller‘s lofty totals are not included, due to being before the official sack era (1982-), Griffen’s 79.5 sacks rank fourth in Vikings annals.

Richardson played both the 2018 and 2021 seasons in Minnesota, with a Cleveland stay sandwiched in between. He did not miss a start in either Vikings season. The Vikes’ new regime has not been connected to another reunion. Richardson, 31, has been linked to another Browns stint.

Between Barr and Pierce, the Vikings are carrying $13MM in dead-money charges. Pierce bombed on a three-year, $27MM Vikes agreement, opting out of the 2020 season and missing half of last season due to injury. Pierce’s injury allowed likely 2022 D-line starter Armon Watts nine starts. Despite the presences of Tomlinson and Phillips, Watts (five 2022 sacks, 10 QB hits) figures to have a steady role this season. A 2019 sixth-round pick, Watts should have responsibilities more in line with his talents this season — after the college pass rusher was asked to try his hand at nose sans Pierce.

In Irv Smith Jr.‘s absence, Conklin stepped in as an out-of-nowhere contributor. The former fifth-round pick’s well-timed breakout year (593 receiving yards) secured him a two-year, $20.25MM ($10MM guaranteed) Jets deal. The Vikings did not do much to replace Conklin, pointing to the team counting on Smith to return from his 2021 season-nullifying knee injury. Smith also underwent thumb surgery during this year’s camp. The Vikes remain well-stocked at wide receiver, pushing their tight end to a lower-level target in O’Connell’s offense. But the team’s thin tight end situation needs Smith back at work.

Draft:

Rookie GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did not exactly buck norms by trading with a division rival early in the draft, but dealing with separate NFC North teams on first- and second-round swaps did stand out. The Vikings moved way down the board in Round 1, allowing the Lions to climb up 20 spots for Jameson Williams at No. 12. The Saints climbing up from No. 27 to No. 14 in 2018 (for Marcus Davenport) scored the Packers a future first, and the Giants added a 2022 first by sliding down from No. 11 to No. 20 (giving the Bears Justin Fields) last year. Some value questions regarding the Vikings’ haul emerged, but Adofo-Mensah did pick up second- and third-round choices in this trade.

The Vikes’ Day 2 capital expanded further when Adofo-Mensah moved back again, giving the Packers a path to Christian Watson at No. 34. The Vikings’ three trades in the first two rounds, the third a move up for Booth, ended up providing secondary reinforcements and a potential right guard starter.

The last of five Georgia defenders chosen in Round 1, Cine will be ticketed to replace Smith as the team’s safety cornerstone. For now, the two will work together. Once a stronghold for first-round cornerbacks, having taken four from 2013-20, the Vikings do not roster a homegrown first-rounder at that position anymore. They now have two first-round safeties. Although Cine may not open the season as the team’s starter, with second-year man Camryn Bynum in place as a stopgap, it would surprise if he was not in the lineup by season’s end. Cine established new career-high marks in tackles (73) and passes defensed (nine) as a junior to both help Georgia to a title. He also blazed to a 4.37-second 40-yard dash time at the Combine.

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Release Candidate: Chiefs RB Ronald Jones

August 11th, 2022 at 9:23pm CST by Ben Levine

Ronald Jones joined the Chiefs this offseason, but he may not even make it to the regular season with his new squad. As Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports writes, the veteran RB “may find himself on the outside looking in” once the Chiefs reduce their roster to 53 players.

When Jones first joined the Chiefs, he was considered a potential starter or (at the very least) a high-level backup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Reports out of Kansas City don’t seem to indicate that Jones has necessarily done anything to lose his job. Rather, it’s been the performance of Kansas City’s other RBs that has put Jones’ gig in jeopardy.

While Edwards-Helaire has consistently been the No. 1 running back during training camp, the Chiefs have given extended looks at Jones, veteran Jerick McKinnon, and seventh-round rookie Isaih Pacheco as the No. 2 RB. As Jones writes, Pacheco has “already turned heads,” while McKinnon has the luxury of having already spent a year in Kansas City’s system. The Chiefs could realistically keep all four of those aforementioned running backs, but considering Jones’ lack of versatility, the organization may prefer to keep a less experienced option (like Derrick Gore or UDFA Tayon Fleet-Davis) instead of a veteran who probably won’t leave the bench.

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was recently complimentary of Jones’ energy, but he seemed to hint that the player’s lack of pass-catching and/or blocking prowess is still a work in progress.

“RoJo is doing a heck of a job,” Bieniemy said (h/t to Charles Goldman of ChiefsWire). “He’s obviously a big man, he’s done some good things running the football.

“He just needs to continue becoming the football player we expect him to be because we expect our guys to do a lot from that running back position. The thing that he’s done is he’s accepted the challenge and he’s doing things he really hasn’t done in the past.”

Jones found himself in and out of the lineup during his four years in Tampa Bay. He had his best season in 2020, finishing with 978 rushing yards and seven touchdowns before collecting another 139 rushing yards in the postseason. He spent the majority of the 2021 campaign behind Leonard Fournette on the depth chart, and after topping 1,000 yards from scrimmage in both 2019 and 2020, he finished last year with only 492 total yards.

The 25-year-old has averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per carry throughout his career, but he’s never been able to establish a role in the passing game. In four season, Jones has hauled in 76 receptions. For comparison’s sake, McKinnon has twice as many career receptions despite playing only two more seasons than his teammate. It goes beyond the counting stats; while Jones didn’t have enough snaps to qualify for Pro Football Focus’ grades, he would have ranked in the bottom-fourth among RBs in pass-catching ability. Jones also earned ugly grades in his blocking prowess, including a pass-blocking score that would have ranked as the second-worst among all RBs.

The Chiefs inked Jones to a one-year, $1.5MM contract this past offseason. The team could recoup about half of that cap hit by releasing the veteran. That $750K savings isn’t significant enough to make a major impact on the cap sheet, and that’s why if the Chiefs do ultimately move on from Jones, the move probably won’t be attributed to money.

Of course, this isn’t to say that Jones doesn’t have a place in the NFL. However, he doesn’t seem to have a clear role in Kansas City, and that fact could ultimately earn him his walking papers by the end of the preseason.

This Date In Transactions History: Bills Trade Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby

August 11th, 2022 at 11:53am CST by Sam Robinson

A few transactions keyed the Bills’ rise from perennial regular-season-only team to one that has been on the Super Bowl contender tier in the 2020s, but August 11, 2017 represents a fairly important date on the franchise’s timeline.

On this day five years ago, the Bills swung two trades. Those deals, one in particular, helped the franchise transform its position in the NFL hierarchy. Shortly before noon CT that day, the Rams acquired Sammy Watkins and a 2018 sixth-round pick in exchange for a 2018 second-round pick and cornerback E.J. Gaines. Minutes later, word emerged that the Eagles had obtained Ronald Darby for a third-round pick and wide receiver Jordan Matthews.

Both Watkins and Darby were Bills starters brought in during Doug Whaley‘s run as general manager, the former as a 2014 first-round pick and the latter via the 2015 second round. The Bills traded up to No. 4 for Watkins in 2014, but the injury concerns that have largely defined the talented pass catcher’s career showed up early. The team got out early on Darby, who had two years remaining on his rookie contract at the time of the trade.

Both have since bounced around the league, though each has made key contributions post-Buffalo. Watkins elevated his value on Sean McVay‘s first Rams team, playing a career-high 15 games in 2017. This led to his signing a then-startling $16MM-per-year Chiefs deal in 2018 and helping Kansas City to back-to-back Super Bowls. Darby started for the Eagles’ Super Bowl LII-winning team in his first Philadelphia season. He has since signed deals with Washington and Denver. The Bills, however, used the trades to position themselves for a quick ascent under Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane.

Armed with the two additional Day 2 picks, Beane maneuvered to land the team’s next franchise centerpiece in his first draft as GM. In a rare two-pronged move up the first-round board, the Bills began their April 2018 odyssey by acquiring the No. 12 overall pick. To do so, they packaged veteran left tackle Cordy Glenn in a pre-draft deal with the Bengals. That move featured Glenn, Buffalo’s No. 21 pick and a 2018 fifth-round choice going to Cincinnati for No. 12 and a 2018 sixth. On draft night, Beane flipped the No. 12 selection to the Buccaneers for No. 7. To move into the top 10, the Bills included the pick they obtained for Watkins (No. 56). They traded Nos. 12, 53 and 56 to Tampa Bay for the slot that became Josh Allen, the third quarterback selected in 2018’s five-QB first round.

With the pick from the Darby deal, the Bills chose defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, who became a four-year contributor and part-time starter. Phillips left in free agency this year to sign with the Vikings. Although Matthews and Gaines did not contribute much in Buffalo, the Allen acquisition obviously changed the franchise’s course.

Despite hurting their 2017 roster by dealing away Darby and Watkins, the Bills made a surprise playoff bid that season. While 2018 featured a considerable step back, the team has qualified for the past three AFC brackets. Allen has since become one of the NFL’s top players, leading the team to the 2020 AFC championship game and into the 2021 divisional round. He is locked in through 2028 via a six-year, $258MM extension. This year’s Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray deals have bumped Allen’s contract down to fifth among quarterbacks.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Cardinals

August 10th, 2022 at 9:56pm CST by Sam Robinson

The first Cardinals playoff entrance in six years preceded a complex offseason. The top three players associated with the franchise landed in headlines — either for leaving, being suspended, or, most notably, entanglement in one of the weirder contract plots in recent memory — and the team Arizona will field looks to have more question marks than the 2021 iteration did.

Kyler Murray‘s contract saga dominated all other Cardinals offseason storylines, but this team enjoyed an eventual year on most fronts. With Chandler Jones gone and DeAndre Hopkins suspended, the 2022 Cardinals’ margin for error appears slimmer. Last season’s start showed the capabilities of the Murray-led operation. Its finish revealed potential foundational flaws. However, the Cards — albeit in strange fashion — checked off the top contract box in franchise history. The organization is now committed to the Murray-Kliff Kingsbury–Steve Keim trio, for better or worse.

Trades:

Months before the Murray deal’s bumpy landing, the Cardinals reunited their star quarterback with his top college wide receiver. Brown, perhaps unsurprisingly, no longer wanted to be part of the NFL’s most run-oriented attack. The trade request led the diminutive deep threat to Arizona, and while the Cardinals did recoup a third-rounder from the Ravens, Baltimore collecting a first-rounder for Brown did surprise on draft night. With Hopkins sidelined for the Cards’ first six games, the Oklahoma-established Kyler-Hollywood connection will need to rev up again immediately.

Spending his two-year college career playing only with Heisman winners, Brown lit up Big 12 secondaries. Baker Mayfield oversaw Brown’s freshman breakout, and Murray coaxed bigger numbers (75 catches, 1,318 yards, 10 touchdowns) during his Heisman slate. A Hopkins-Brown-A.J. Green trio, with increased Rondale Moore usage, invites intrigue — slightly more so than last year’s Cards aerial attack did. As nearly every team with a worthwhile 2019 receiver draftee is rewarding them with lucrative extensions, Arizona has a year to evaluate Brown’s fit.

Landing the 5-foot-9 weapon on a rookie contract is favorable compared to overpaying Christian Kirk, but giving up a top offseason asset to do so brings risk. Brown is one of the NFL’s smallest receivers, and he has just one 800-plus-yard season on his resume. Then again, Brown surely has untapped potential at the NFL level. Being tied to Lamar Jackson has not exactly benefited pass catchers not named Mark Andrews. Brown can position himself for a contract north of Diontae Johnson‘s new deal (two years, $36.7MM) by proving he was held back in Baltimore. Even though Brown’s ceiling remains mysterious, the Cardinals extending him now — on a deal in the Johnson realm — may be palatable to seeing him drive up his value in a receiver-friendlier offense.

That said, the Cardinals have been too Hopkins-dependent since acquiring him via trade. Brown adds some speed to one of the NFL’s slower receiver stables. His arrival and the prospect of increased Moore work represents an upgrade on the situation the 2021 Cards deployed. Brown, 25, does pair better with Murray, age-wise, than Hopkins, 30. But, assuming the team wants a Hopkins-Brown long-term partnership, that will become expensive — on a roster now carrying a monster quarterback salary — very soon.

Free agency additions:

Arizona worked quietly in terms of outside free agent hires. Hernandez, Williams and Vigil each could be nice fliers for a team that prioritized UFA retention this year. Going into his age-29 season, Vigil has made 51 career starts, Hernandez was a four-year Giants starter, and Williams played a regular role on one of the NFL’s best offenses.

Hernandez will follow Pugh from New York to Arizona. Despite Pugh coming off an injury-plagued Giants tenure, his market did not suffer much. Hernandez, conversely, went from long-term Giants starter — with a mild injury history — to a player who generated next to no interest. A Cardinals team full of aging starting O-linemen should benefit from a 26-year-old guard with 56 career starts working as a backup. Odds are, Hernandez will be needed as a starter this season. It will be interesting to see if the former second-round pick, whom PFF effectively turned on after a positive rookie-year assessment, can develop more interest on the 2023 market.

Ideally, the Cardinals will not want Williams receiving too many carries. James Conner staying healthy and Eno Benjamin complementing him, post-Chase Edmonds, should be the team’s ideal formula. But Williams was necessary in Kansas City, subbing in for the oft-unavailable Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Nothing flashy here, with three sub-4.0-YPC seasons in four years, but Williams is coming off a season with 1,010 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. It garnered him next to no interest on the market, hence the Cardinals visit turning into a $1MM guarantee. But he became a decent outlet option for Patrick Mahomes in 2021. As a depth piece, Williams should work. Given Conner’s injury history, the addition may become relevant soon.

Re-signings:

At long last, the Cardinals have found a quality tight end. The Cards landed Ertz a bit late in the game, with the ex-Eagle’s first full season in Arizona coming ahead of his 32nd birthday. But, considering this team’s history at this position, a quality starter of any age should be embraced. Ertz debuted as a Cardinal on Oct. 24. His 574 receiving yards in 11 games were more than any Cardinal tight end compiled in a season since the franchise relocated to Arizona in 1988.

After previous regimes tried and failed to staff this job, the franchise took a break on devoting much effort to staffing this position in recent years. Ertz as the 11th-highest-paid tight end represents good value for the team, and it should fill one of the NFL’s most troublesome needs for at least the next two seasons. Ertz had sought a deal on the George Kittle–Travis Kelce plane, but the Eagles balked and instead rewarded his replacement (Dallas Goedert) soon after the midseason trade. Less-than-ideal Philly ending aside, Ertz did well for himself with Arizona. The Cards retaining Ertz for $10.6MM per year in March doubled as good timing, given how David Njoku‘s $13.7MM-AAV contract disrupted the market this year.

Conner did even better for himself. After signing a one-year, $1.75MM deal in 2021, the ex-Steeler starter rewarded the Cardinals (and numerous fantasy GMs that took mid-round swings) with an 18-touchdown season. Only David Johnson‘s outlier 2016 produced more in a Cardinals season. The team missed in extending Johnson, who admittedly was stuck on some bad teams after his three-year, $39MM accord. But that was a top-market deal at the time. Conner’s pact, along with Leonard Fournette‘s Buccaneers deal and Austin Ekeler‘s wildly Chargers-friendly accord, effectively establishes a veteran middle class at a position in which non-top-tier veterans annually run into grim markets.

This works out well for Conner, whose $13.5MM guarantee ranks ninth among backs. The cancer survivor’s 3.7-yard average deceives slightly, since he often was called upon in short-yardage situations. He provided solid ground and air support to a Cards team short on available offensive talent down the stretch last season. Turning his healthiest season into a career-defining payday is a feel-good story at a position that does not produce too many of them anymore. With Edmonds in Miami, however, the Cards are making a risky bet that Conner — who accumulated injuries requiring absences in each of his four Pittsburgh seasons and went down with a heel malady late last year — can stay on the field to justify this payment.

The Giants’ bizarre Mike Glennon-over-McCoy QB2 move may well have led to Brian Daboll‘s HC opportunity, with Joe Judge potentially avoiding a pink slip had the team simply brought back McCoy. Instead, McCoy enhanced his backup-QB dossier by ensuring the Cards survived Murray’s hamstring injury. Arizona’s two McCoy-led wins were rather important to their postseason cause. The Cards are planning to count on the veteran through his age-37 season, though. Murray’s injury past shows the backup will probably be needed during that span.

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Poll: Who Will Make Most Seahawks QB Starts In 2022?

August 10th, 2022 at 2:33pm CST by Sam Robinson

While Russell Wilson did not enter his first offseason as a lock to start, and Tarvaris Jackson did bridge the 2011 gap between Matt Hasselbeck and Wilson, the Seahawks have not exactly experienced much late-summer quarterback uncertainty in the 21st century. Even going back to the late 1990s, Jon Kitna ended his Seattle run as the team’s unquestioned starter for multiple seasons.

This run of stability stopped when the team dealt Wilson to Denver in March. Although the Seahawks were connected to both Baker Mayfield — whose early destination prediction was Seattle — and rookie prospects, they have stayed the course. The Geno Smith–Drew Lock battle is unfolding in earnest at training camp. Will this be how the team replaces Wilson?

Right now, Smith — Wilson’s three-year backup — is in the lead, per Pete Carroll. The 10th-year passer will start the Seahawks’ first preseason game Saturday. This marks the second straight year Lock will begin the preseason as a backup. He did so behind Teddy Bridgewater last year, and that status turned out to be indicative of the Broncos’ 2021 plans for the former second-round pick.

Smith, 31, has taken most of the snaps behind Seattle’s first-string offensive line during camp, Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times notes, but Lock, 25, outperformed him in the team’s mock scrimmage recently, Gregg Bell of the Tacoma News-Tribune tweets. The Mizzou product led multiple scoring drives despite helming the second-team offense against Seattle’s first-team defense. Lock will likely move into the starting lineup at least once during the Seahawks’ three-game preseason slate. Lock limiting his turnovers at Seahawks camp has impressed Carroll as well, per Condotta.

The Seahawks know what they have in Smith, who has gone from being a multiyear Jets starter to a player that has sat exclusively behind durable QB1s. The infamous IK Enemkpali locker-room punch thrust Ryan Fitzpatrick into a Jets starting role in 2015, and Smith played behind Fitz in 2016 as well. Smith’s 2017 Giants deal did produce one start, when then-HC Ben McAdoo benched Eli Manning. That move led ownership to can McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese. Smith’s Chargers accord did not lead to any starts, with Philip Rivers well into his start streak in 2018, and Wilson’s start streak hummed into October 2021. Smith completed 68.4% of his passes, throwing five TDs to one INT, and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt in his three-plus-game cameo last season.

A Lock rookie-year hand injury kept him sidelined behind Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen, but he finished that year with five Broncos starts. Denver did not bring in any competition for Lock in 2020, but the strong-armed QB’s sophomore season began his path out of town. The streaky passer led the NFL in INTs (15), doing so despite missing three starts and failing to finish another. Even as Bridgewater battled multiple injuries in 2021, he continued to start over Lock. Bridgewater’s second 2021 concussion, which came in Week 15, led Lock back to work. While Lock again enjoyed moments, he finished with a 23.4 QBR in limited action. The Broncos lost each of his three season-ending starts.

It would seem the Seahawks have a floor-vs.-ceiling decision to make, with Smith representing the safer option. But a clear upgrade should be available soon. The 49ers want to avoid releasing Jimmy Garoppolo early, keeping him away from the division rival with a quarterback need. But with Garoppolo’s $24.2MM base salary becoming guaranteed just ahead of Week 1, the Seahawks lurk. They have done homework on the four-plus-year San Francisco starter, and while no trade is likely here, Seattle could obtain Garoppolo on a much cheaper salary if/when he is cut.

Will the Seahawks be the team that ends up with Garoppolo? Or will their months-long Lock-Smith competition produce a winner worthy of sticking around as Wilson’s successor? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

5 Key Stories: 7/31/22 – 8/7/22

August 7th, 2022 at 4:50pm CST by Adam La Rose

With training camps well underway, there have been a number of significant developments with on- and off-the-field implications this past week. In case you missed anything, here’s a quick recap of the top stories from around the league:

  • Watson Given Six-Game Suspension: The long-awaited ruling from former judge Sue L. Robinson was handed down Monday morning, and imposed a ban for the first six games of the season on Deshaun Watson. The Browns QB was found to have violated the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy by virtue of his “nonviolent sexual conduct” during massage sessions dating back to his time with the Texans. As it stands, the punishment will cost Watson $345K in salary; things could change significantly soon, however, since the league has appealed the decision, and is looking to have both its length and financial penalties increased by a new third-party arbiter.
  • Samuel Signs Extension: After formally requesting a trade earlier this offseason, wideout Deebo Samuel completed his course reversal by inking a three-year, $71.55MM extension. The new deal will keep him in San Francisco through 2025, and moves him into the top-10 in the league in annual compensation ($23.85MM) at the position. The 26-year-old now has the financial security to replicate his success from last season – where he earned All-Pro honors for his unique effectiveness in the air and on the ground – but also the opportunity to hit the open market in the not-too-distant future.
  • Dolphins, Ross Punished For Tampering: The Dolphins were docked a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 third-rounder for their attempts to acquire QB Tom Brady and head coach Sean Payton. In addition, owner Steven Ross was suspended until October and fined $1.5MM. The organization was found to have committed tampering violations of “unprecedented scope and severity,” leading to the substantial discipline being handed down. Ross and the team were, on the other hand, cleared of any wrongdoing with respect to the tanking allegations made by former head coach Brian Flores.
  • Steelers Extend Johnson: In the immediate build-up to his new deal being finalized, all signs seemed to point to Diontae Johnson departing in free agency at the end of this season. Instead, he signed a two-year extension worth $36.71MM. Surprisingly, the Pro Bowler came in short of the $20MM-per-year mark that each of his 2019 draft classmates (among several other wideouts) who have been extended this offseason eclipsed. Like Samuel, though, he can build off of a career-year over the course of the pact’s short term and test the free agent market while still in his prime.
  • Cardinals Extend Humphries: Not long after signing QB Kyler Murray to a massive extension, Arizona took care of his blindside blocker as well. Left tackle D.J. Humphries signed a three-year, $66.8MM extension to keep him on the books through 2025. The 28-year-old now ranks ninth in the league in terms of annual average compensation ($16.98MM) amongst left tackles as a result of the deal. He will look to continue his Pro Bowl form of last year as another key member of the Cardinals’ offense who is on the books for the foreseeable future.  

Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

August 4th, 2022 at 9:55pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Panthers have one- and two-win seasons on their 21st-century resume, but the franchise has never gone through a stretch like the one it has submitted over the past three years. Prior to 2020, there was only one instance of Carolina finishing consecutive seasons with double-digit losses (2010-11). Entering Matt Rhule‘s third year, the current streak is three. The Panthers’ three straight five-win campaigns has made Rhule’s seat hot and made David Tepper‘s authorization of a seven-year, $63MM contract look shortsighted.

Rhule’s handling of the quarterback position has led his regime to the brink, but the team took another swing — albeit belatedly — this offseason. While this could lead the best quarterback to Carolina since a pre-injuries Cam Newton, it also may not be enough to stave off a Tepper urge to cut his losses.

Trades:

Carolina aimed to bring in a quarterback with a greater pedigree. The team submitted what might have been the second-best offer for Matthew Stafford last year, and GM Scott Fitterer inquired about a reunion with Russell Wilson, whom he helped draft during a 20-year Seattle stay. Deshaun Watson obviously loomed as a big fish for the Panthers, who pursued the embattled quarterback for two offseasons. The team passed on taking QBs with back-to-back top-10 picks, selecting Jaycee Horn over Justin Fields and Mac Jones and choosing Ikem Ekwonu over ex-Rhule Temple recruit Kenny Pickett. This journey led to the Panthers completing a second offseason program with Sam Darnold — the QB the team settled on via a three-pick trade haul in 2021 — in the pilot seat.

Darnold’s disastrous Carolina debut led the team to Mayfield, after a Tepper-fueled three-month odyssey that had Carolina and Cleveland — who spent most of the offseason at Nos. 1 and 2 in cap space — haggling over a few million of the former Browns starter’s salary. While the Panthers made out well in this deal — the low pick and being responsible for just $4.86MM of Mayfield’s $15MM-plus salary — Tepper’s insistence not to overpay led Mayfield to remain in Browns exile into July. Rhule and Fitterer wanted Mayfield at the Panthers’ minicamp. Instead, the four-year Cleveland QB1 had barely two weeks to digest new OC Ben McAdoo‘s offense ahead of training camp.

But Mayfield, his brutal 2019 and ’21 seasons notwithstanding, represents a clear upgrade for the Panthers. His Offensive Rookie of the Year second-place finish and his bounce-back 2020 season under Kevin Stefanski, snapping the NFL’s longest active playoff drought, reflects well on his abilities — at least compared to Darnold.

Mayfield, 27, also had mostly better offensive lines compared to the passer drafted two spots after him, but Darnold maxed out at 26th in QBR (2019) and has placed 33rd in this metric in each of the past two seasons. While inconsistent, Mayfield (10th in QBR in 2020, a 26-touchdown pass, eight-interception year that had the Browns near a surprise AFC championship game bid) has reached much higher peaks and would not shock by becoming an above-average starter again. Darnold has not come particularly close to that level.

In Carolina, the polarizing passer is on track to have a chance to play behind a much better Panthers O-line than Darnold had in 2021 and work with a more well-rounded receiving corps than he had in Cleveland. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry represented, on paper, a strong receiver foundation. But the Mayfield-Beckham fit is part of the reason why the 2017 Heisman winner is in Charlotte. Working with D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey (ideally) could provide Mayfield gateways to either an intriguing free agency bid or a long-term Panthers contract. The apparent upgrade aside, Mayfield injects a high degree of variance into a make-or-break season for Rhule, whose two prior QB swings (Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater) missed.

The Panthers will wait to determine Mayfield’s extension viability, but with the team likely to have a fourth Week 1 QB in four years, it would be wise — if a healthy Mayfield re-establishes himself — for Carolina to attempt to keep its trade acquisition off the 2023 market. The Panthers have a history of a buy-low quarterback breaking through in Year 1, with Jake Delhomme guiding the 2003 team to Super Bowl XXXVIII and signing two extensions. Although Carolina does not look particularly close to a Super Bowl contender, this season could be one of the more interesting QB slates — as Mayfield could veer back toward a franchise-QB contract or skid into stopgap-starter purgatory — in recent memory.

Anything from 2023 franchise-tag value to QB2 money could await the ex-Progressive pitchman come March. Mayfield’s 2022 performance will likely determine this scuffling franchise’s trajectory.

Free agency additions:

Darnold, Newton and P.J. Walker faced steady pressure last season. Pro Football Focus rated Carolina’s offensive line 31st. Panthers QBs were sacked 52 times — fifth-most in the league. The team responded by adding three starter-caliber O-linemen, including two veterans during free agency’s first week.

Corbett, a Mayfield teammate for a season and change, did not find his form until relocating from Cleveland to Los Angeles. The Rams plugged in the 2018 second-round pick at both left and right guard during his 2 1/2-season L.A. run. After the Browns did not feel Corbett was ready (one start in 1 1/2 seasons), the Rams used him as a full-timer almost throughout his tenure. Corbett started every game over the past two seasons, filling in as a much-needed rookie-contract starter for the NFL’s premier star-chasing team. PFF graded Corbett as a top-25 guard in each of the past two years, but the Rams’ penchant for splashy extensions forces them to let role players walk annually. The Panthers will benefit and have Corbett tied to a deal barely inside the guard top five through 2024.

Surprisingly, Bozeman was available for much cheaper. PFF’s No. 11 center last season, Bozeman was unable to follow the Ryan Jensen path. The Ravens’ latest contract-year center success story will need to prove himself again. This deal is a bargain for the Panthers, who now have Bozeman in a battle with Pat Elflein, who signed a three-year, $13.5MM deal in 2021. Brought in as a guard alongside Matt Paradis, Elflein played both interior spots last season. The loser of this competition will represent a valuable swing player. Though, if Elflein loses, the Panthers will have some slightly expensive backup O-linemen in Elflein and Cameron Erving ($4.1MM 2022 base salary).

Carolina has more options up front this year. Ioannidis will move from a Washington team that had so many options it reduced its former sack leader’s workload. Ioannidis being a Temple alum naturally led him to Rhule, an ex-Temple HC-turned-hoarder of mid-2010s Owls. Rhule’s insistence on adding his old college players aside, Ioannidis totaled 16 sacks and 27 QB hits from 2018-19 — before Washington’s Montez Sweat–Chase Young duo formed — and earned an extension. Washington’s current regime bailed on that deal, and he suffered a bicep tear early in 2020. Minimized behind Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen in Washington last season, Ioannidis should have a clearer role alongside Derrick Brown.

Foreman found footing as Derrick Henry‘s primary replacement last season, accumulating 133 carries after totaling just 29 from 2018-20. The former third-round pick averaged 4.3 yards per carry. If the Panthers are to keep McCaffrey relatively healthy, Foreman needs to be a backfield regular. The team has not used its backups enough when McCaffrey has been available, but after the rampant 2020s injury trouble, the one-time All-Pro has hit a crossroads season. The Panthers listened on CMC trade calls this offseason, though moving his still-market-topping $16MM-per-year contract would have been difficult after the past two seasons. McCaffrey, 26, has missed 22 games since 2020.

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Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Steelers

August 2nd, 2022 at 8:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

As the Steelers transition from their 18-year Ben Roethlisberger partnership, they have his heir apparent — at long last — in place. Until Kenny Pickett takes the reins, this has the look of a transition season. The AFC has seen several fringe contenders make what appear to be significant improvements, and depending on the final number of Deshaun Watson games missed, the Steelers may have considerable ground to make up at quarterback in the AFC North.

But this team, as you may have heard, does not finish under .500. This quarterback change will test Mike Tomlin‘s 16-year streak, but the Steelers made several upgrades to their starting lineup. Will the host of midlevel additions, and a perennially fearsome pass rush, be enough to prop up a Mitchell Trubisky-quarterbacked team in this season’s early going?

Notable signings:

After the pandemic-induced cap reduction led to the restructure-happy Steelers losing key players last year, the 2022 cap spike helped them devote greater resources to bolstering their offensive line and other spots. On the whole, the team stayed in the free agency pool a bit longer than even its pre-pandemic normal. After spending $24.5MM on free agents in 2020 and $46.5MM in 2019, Pittsburgh surpassed $80MM in the market’s first week. The UFAs, SFAs and Ogunjobi, who lingered somewhere in between, should improve the team’s starting lineup. But how much will the needle move?

As apparent as Roethlisberger’s decline became, the Steelers likely will open the season with one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks. QBR did slot Trubisky’s 2020 season ahead of even Roethlisberger’s — which featured 33 touchdown passes for a team with a last-ranked rushing attack — but the former one-year North Carolina starter has submitted an extensive run of mediocre NFL play. The Steelers do have a more well-rounded receiver stable compared to Trubisky’s Chicago troops, a largely Allen Robinson-dependent operation, and, likely, a superior running back. Perhaps with better tools, the 2017 No. 2 overall pick can make stabs at further rebuilding his stock.

But the Bears benched Trubisky for a healthy portion of the 2020 season and made the playoffs thanks largely to a soft late-season schedule. The subsequent NVP award became emblematic of one of this era’s defining draft missteps. Trubisky, 27, managed just 6.1 yards per attempt in 2019, and while he did leave Chicago with a 64-37 TD-INT ratio, he was given a long runway to start. That substantial sample size, ahead of the midcareer Brian Daboll internship, led evaluators in The Athletic’s latest quarterback tiers project to slot Trubisky 33rd overall (subscription required).

Alhough Trubisky has seven-figure playing-time incentives that start at the 60% snap threshold, Pickett almost certainly will see time in 2022. Trubisky’s 2017 usurping of Mike Glennon (after four games) is more norm than exception for first-round rookies. Jordan Love and even Patrick Mahomes are the outliers in the modern NFL. Until the Steelers make the switch, Trubisky’s early-career sample size — and the AFC’s overall strength — point to the team’s ceiling remaining fairly low.

Trubisky invites obvious questions about Pittsburgh’s viability, but he should be protected better than Roethlisberger was in his finale. The team’s top O-line addition, Daniels will not turn 25 until mid-September. Pro Football Focus graded the former Bears second-round pick as a top-25 guard in each of his three full seasons as a starter. This type of player is not usually available for less than $9MM guaranteed, which points to front offices being less sold on the Iowa alum’s skills compared to PFF. But Daniels is the kind of player to bet on — one just coming into his prime — and the Steelers have him on barely a top-15 guard contract through 2024.

Pittsburgh continued its extended foray into free agency’s middle sector with Cole, who will come over after yo-yoing between first- and second-string roles throughout his rookie contract. Cole, 26, is hardly a solidified center. But the former Cardinals third-round pick has 39 career starts. He will likely be an upgrade on Kendrick Green, a 2021 third-rounder PFF placed near the bottom of its 2021 center hierarchy. Cole’s arrival will also allow Green to play his natural position, guard, depending on how his battle with Kevin Dotson goes. The loser represents decent interior depth.

After not devoting much to their right tackle spot since Marcus Gilbert‘s injuries sidetracked his career, the Steelers handed out another midlevel deal to the player who has been Gilbert’s primary successor. Okorafor is not to be confused with one of the league’s best right-edge protectors, hence the $9.25MM guaranteed, but he has been available (31 starts since 2020). That is an admittedly low bar, making the extension somewhat surprising. Okorafor will only be 25 this season, giving the Steelers more time to mold the former third-round pick, but PFF has slotted him outside its top 60 at the tackle spot during his two starter years.

As could be expected, based on how the Steelers built their 2021 O-line, PFF graded the quintet 26th last season. Big Ben took 38 sacks — his most since 2013 — and Najee Harris managed only 3.9 yards per carry. It would be nice if the Steelers had elite O-line coach Mike Munchak back to help make these mid-tier contracts sparkle, but the team made some cost-efficient enhancements up front. It remains to be seen if they will be drastic improvements or patch jobs.

The last remaining “Sacksonville”-era defender to leave the Jaguars, Jack has a clear chance to restore his relevance in Pittsburgh. The six-year Jags starter will be poised to anchor the team’s linebacking corps, being provided a chance to resurface after a down season during Jacksonville’s dreadful Urban Meyer experiment. This will only be Jack’s age-27 season. The 82-game starter will provide a solid speed presence for the team’s second level, giving the Steelers the kind of stability they have largely lacked since Ryan Shazier‘s tragic injury. A Jack bounce back could lead to the kind of long-term partnership the Steelers forged with Joe Haden, who was coming off a down year with the Browns when he caught on in Pittsburgh five years ago.

Landing in the same tax bracket as other key players the Steelers added, Ogunjobi should help the Steelers improve on their No. 32 run-defense ranking. The sixth-year veteran will attempt to replace Stephon Tuitt, who was sorely missed in 2021. The former Browns draftee is coming off a better season than Jack, leading the Bears to offer a three-year contract worth $40.5MM. Ogunjobi’s seven sacks and 16 tackles for loss (both career-high marks) rewarded the Bengals, but the foot injury sustained in the team’s wild-card game changed his trajectory. The Steelers will have a motivated inside defender — he of two 5.5-sack seasons in Cleveland — who saw a chunk of guaranteed money ($26.35MM) denied after his failed Bears physical.

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

July 31st, 2022 at 11:15pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Lamar Jackson era has reignited optimism around the Ravens regarding their ability to contend for a third Super Bowl title. Coming off of their third straight postseason appearance — and first playoff victory — during Jackson’s tenure as the starting quarterback, expectations were high for the 2021 season in Baltimore. A myriad of injuries (including to the 25-year-old himself) sparked a six-game losing streak to end the campaign, knocking the team out of the postseason.

This coming season is therefore seen as something of a mulligan in Charm City. A return to health for a number of key players, along with a retooled defense, could once again land the team among the AFC’s elite. The conference has added a number of stars on both sides of the ball, though, including moves which figure to see both Ohio teams remain divisional contenders for the foreseeable future. With Jackson’s Baltimore tenure remaining a point of contention, have the Ravens done enough this spring to make a championship run?

Trades:

General manager Eric DeCosta has shown a propensity to pull off significant trades during his relatively brief time at the helm of the Ravens. Moving Brown represents another sizable deal he executed, a process which involved keeping the likelihood of a swap under wraps for months. Only after the Day 1 draft deal was it revealed that Brown had requested to be traded at the end of the regular season. By honoring that wish, the team ended the up-and-down tenure of only its second-ever homegrown 1,000-yard receiver.

Putting aside the close personal relationship between Brown and Jackson, the deal leaves the team with a significant void in the passing game. Brown eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in 2021 and ranked 10th in the NFL in targets. While 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman is poised to take over as the Ravens’ top wideout, the depth chart seriously lacks experience and pedigree. With neither the extra first-rounder they acquired via the pair of swaps made during that night, nor any other selection, did the team add to its WR corps. Baltimore has been labeled a candidate to bring in a veteran, though a move of anywhere near as much significance as the Brown deal is highly unlikely.

Notable signings:

The Ravens haven’t been afraid to spend significant free agency dollars on the safety position in recent years, handing out deals to the likes of Eric Weddle and Earl Thomas. Williams is the latest in that line of acquisitions, though his age (25) should allow for a longer tenure with the team compared to the team’s previous big-ticket safety signings. The former second-rounder established his playmaking ability in New Orleans, where he racked up 15 interceptions across five seasons. The 2021 campaign, in which he played on the franchise tag, also saw him make strides in pass coverage.

Williams will provide the Ravens with a ball-hawking ability which has been lacking recently. The team ranked 26th in the league with just nine interceptions last year, a statistic which was exacerbated by the defense’s overall struggles against the pass (surrendering a league-worst 279 yards per game through the air). At an annual average of $14MM per season, Williams’ contract ranks eighth among safeties, as the position continues to enjoy an upward trend. The degree to which he lives up to the lucrative pact will go a long way in determining the defense’s success for the short- and long-term future.  

The defensive line was identified as an area in need of a youth movement at the end of the 2021 season. While the starting unit will look different this fall, Campbell and Pierce will be familiar faces. The former had contemplated retirement before ultimately committing to play at least one more season, making a reunion with Baltimore a logical choice. The 2010s All-Decade Team member will be 36 this campaign, but he also represents the lone returnee from the 2021 starters along the D-line. Campbell’s level of play against the run in particular has shown little sign of decline in recent years, and his leadership within a relatively young front seven will carry value.

In the middle of the line, Pierce will step back into the starting role he held at the end of his first Ravens tenure in 2019. The deal he signed to return is significantly smaller in value than the one he inked with the Vikings that offseason, but it gives him notable security considering the limited time he has spent on the field in the last two years. A 2020 opt-out, the 29-year-old was limited to eight contests last season, ultimately leading to his Vikings release. Rediscovering the form which earned him that Minnesota deal would add a boost to the defensive front. Urban represents another reunion; the veteran Canadian has started for the Ravens in the past but figures to play a rotational role in 2022.

On the opposite side of the ball, fortifying the offensive line became plainly necessary as the 2021 campaign progressed. While a return to health from left tackle Ronnie Stanley would solve much of the issue in pass protection in particular, finding a veteran bookend was among the team’s top priorities, and something made more financially viable by a reunion with Za’Darius Smith falling through. Moses, 31, figures to provide a steady presence at that spot, having posted a PFF grade of 71 with the Jets last year, a figure roughly in line with his career average.

A recipient of the rarely used UFA tender, Houston remaining in Baltimore was always the likeliest outcome, despite the delay in his decision to re-sign. The Ravens had been connected to a number of veteran pass rushers, and the former NFL sack leader will again be leaned on in at least a rotational capacity within an otherwise young position group facing a number of health questions. Likewise, the one-year investment in Fuller could prove worthwhile. The Baltimore native is coming off of a disappointing season with the Broncos, but he could see significant playing time as part of the Ravens’ retooled CB room.

Notable losses:

Williams and Wolfe headline the front-seven departures. The former had spent his entire nine-year career in Baltimore, while the latter was in line to start alongside him this season before being sidelined with hip issues. Their departures will leave the team short two starting-caliber leaders, and place even higher expectations upon 2019 third-rounder Justin Madubuike to not only take on a permanent first-team role, but develop into an impact player.

Given the struggles on the offensive line, changes were inevitable. Villanueva’s retirement came after an underwhelming final chapter of his Pro Bowl career, but it was expected considering his inconsistent play. Bozeman departing was likewise unsurprising, though the fact that he was only able to land a one-year deal in Carolina was noteworthy. The Alabama product established himself as a dependable starter in the middle of the line, albeit at a position the team had options for regarding a replacement both before and after the draft.

The area of the roster which has seen the most changeover is the secondary. Elliott handled full-time starting duties for the second straight season, proving his worth when able to remain on the field (the infrequency of which throughout his career no doubt hurt his free agent value). Averett shouldered by far the largest workload of his career (with a snap share of 90%) stepping in for a CB room which lost Marcus Peters and, later, Marlon Humphrey as well. The production he managed in 2021 made the position’s remaining depth the source of many questions leading up to the draft.

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Offseason In Review: New England Patriots

July 27th, 2022 at 9:56pm CST by Ben Levine

Following a busy offseason in 2021, the Patriots stayed relatively quiet in 2022. In the long run, it probably doesn’t matter much. No matter what moves the team could have possibly made this spring, the success of the 2022 Patriots was always going to be dependent on the progression of Mac Jones.

The 15th overall pick in last year’s draft may have been the fifth QB off the board, but he was the only rookie quarterback to make the playoffs and earn a Pro Bowl nod during the 2021 campaign. Still, there’s plenty of room for improvement, and the Patriots’ best chances at another Super Bowl will depend on Jones’ ability to break into at least the top 10 at his position.

Still, following a quiet offseason, the major question in New England is if the Patriots have put Jones in the best position to succeed. Sure, the team has invested plenty in receiver and tight end (including the acquisition of DeVante Parker this offseason). However, following an offseason where division rivals surrounded their young QBs with a first-team All-Pro (Tyreek Hill) and a first-round pick (Garrett Wilson), the Patriots receiving corps certainly looks to be underwhelming.

Further, with Josh McDaniels taking the head coaching job with the Raiders, the Patriots are without an offensive coordinator…and they’re relying on a pair of unconventional options to fill the coaching void.

Ultimately, the Patriots are hoping for internal progression from the squad. Bill Belichick always looms as a threat, but thanks to New England’s offseason moves (or lack thereof), that progression might not be seen in the wins column.

Trades:

Despite adding four notable pass catchers during the 2021 offseason (WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Hunter Henry, TE Jonnu Smith), there was still an expectation that the Patriot would bring in another target for Jones. In typical fashion, the Patriots ended up ignoring the big-name trade options and pivoted to a division rival’s former first-round pick.

Parker didn’t live up to his first-round billing during his time with the Dolphins. His impression 2019 campaign (72 receptions, 1,202 yards, nine touchdowns) proved to be an outlier. Over the past two seasons, Parker had collected a combined 103 receptions for 1,308 yard and six touchdowns in 24 games. The drop in production could be partly attributed to offensive coaching changes, injuries, and a revolving door at starting QB, but there’s also a reason why the Dolphins have invested so much draft capital into the position over the past two offseasons.

Still, there’s some optimism for Parker in New England. Despite an uneven 2021 campaign, he still ranked just outside the top third of receivers on Pro Football Focus’ ranking of the position (41/115). Parker also has the ability to play in basically any pass-catching role (as John Laghezza of The Athletic detailed), an attribute that will be valued by a Patriots staff that prioritizes versatility.

Considering New England’s pass-catching depth, Parker is going to have a tough time matching his 2019 numbers in New England. However, he clearly has the most upside of any of the Patriots receivers, and considering what it took the Patriots to get him, this move was a no-brainer from New England’s perspective.

Chase Winovich was productive when he was on the field. Through his first two seasons in the NFL, the Michigan product tallied 11 sacks and 22 QB hits in 32 games. However, the defensive end always seemed to find himself in the dog house. For instance, despite starting nine games for New England in 2020, he had five games where he appeared in fewer than 30 defensive snaps. It’s one thing to be a situational pass rusher, but Winovich found himself completely phased out of the defense in a handful of contests.

This culminated in a 2021 campaign where Winovich notched only 11 tackles in 13 games. The Patriots decided to move on, and they acquired a player who was in a similar situation in Cleveland. Mack Wilson started 14 games as a rookie and collected 82 tackles. He started eight of his 13 games in 2020, and by the time the 2021 campaign came to an end, he basically had an even split on defensive and ST snaps.

For a Patriots team that lacks linebacker depth, Wilson could end up playing a significant role in New England in 2022. The same probably couldn’t have been said about Winovich.

The Patriots did a favor for former quarterback Tom Brady when they shipped one of their most veteran blockers in Shaq Mason to Tampa Bay. It was a bit of a surprising move from New England’s perspective. The guard has been a consistent starter since being selected in the fourth round of the 2015 draft, and he hasn’t show any signs of slowing down despite appearing in 103 regular season games and another 13 postseason contests. In 2021, Pro Football Focus ranked Mason fourth among 82 eligible guards.

The addition of rookie Cole Strange removes some of the sting from Mason’s departure, and the Patriots still have a formidable starting offensive line. It’s the depth behind the five starters that’s questionable, and keeping Mason around certainly would have helped in the regard.

Although you would have had to squint, there was one point of time where you could have envisioned a Patriots offense guided by Jarrett Stidham and N’Keal Harry. Fast forward to this offseason, and the Patriots bailed on both players for a minimal return.

Stidham was selected in the fourth-round of the 2019 draft, and following a rookie season where he sat behind Brady, he would have had a chance to secure the starting gig in 2020. It was clearly troubling for Stidham’s future prospects when the Patriots pivoted to veteran Cam Newton, and it was clear that the young QB had no future in New England when the organization selected Jones in the first round of the 2021 draft. Fortunately for the Patriots, they found a taker in the Raiders and McDaniels.

There were even higher expectations for Harry when the receiver was selected in the first round of the 2019 draft. He was never able to click with Brady, and while he saw an increased role in 2020, he still finished with only 309 receiving yards. Following the Patriots’ spending spree during the 2021 offseason, Harry was buried on the depth chart and asked out of New England. It took a year, but he was granted his wish this offseason when he was traded to Chicago for a seventh-round pick.

Notable signings:

The Patriots broke records in 2021 when they committed $163MM in guaranteed money to free agent acquisitions. The front office had to tighten the belt straps in 2022, leading to a lack of big, multi-year, headline-stealing moves.

To help replace the departed J.C. Jackson, the Patriots brought back former Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler to presumably start at cornerback. Butler’s exit from New England (which started with a practical DNP in Super Bowl LII) was a bit messy, but he’ll now be relied on to provide some experience to their cornerbacks corps. The 32-year-old didn’t play at all during the 2021 season, but he collected a career-high 100 tackles in 16 starts with the Titans in 2020.

Mitchell was also added to provide some experienced depth at cornerback. The 30-year-old profiles as more of a rotational piece, but he could even find himself starting depending on the status of rookie Jack Jones and veteran Jalen Mills’ ability to bounce back from a rough season in 2021.

Perhaps the Patriots’ most intriguing addition was Jabrill Peppers. The safety was limited to only six games (five starts) in 2021 thanks to a torn ACL, and he’s never really lived up to his first-round pedigree. The Patriots have some solid depth already at safety in Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, and Adrian Phillips. However, Peppers has proved to be effective in defending the run, and he could find himself playing the pseudo-linebacker role that Patrick Chung used to play.

The Patriots added to their pass-catching corps with the additions of Ty Montgomery and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Neither player moves the needle all that much, but there’s a world where they find themselves with a role in 2022. Montgomery has seen plenty of rushing opportunities since entering the NFL, and we could see the team fully commit to the veteran in the backfield similar to what they did with Cordarrelle Patterson in 2018. At the very least, Montgomery could see some third-down opportunities, especially considering the health of James White.

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