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Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Eagles

By | at September 3, 2024 9:45 pm

Reaching their second Super Bowl in five seasons, the Eagles were a much-debated defensive holding call from having a shot to topple the Chiefs. Nick Sirianni‘s team then beat the defending champions in Kansas City last season. Philadelphia then saw its momentum stall, leading to one of the stranger collapses in recent NFL history. The Eagles went from an NFL-best 10-1 to ending the season in a wild-card blowout against a 9-8 team, leading to changes at many areas — including the offensive and defensive coordinator posts.

Sirianni was spared, as it would have been an interesting look for the Eagles to fire another Super Bowl coach not long after that appearance. But the fourth-year leader has moved to a hot seat. Sirianni’s relationship with Jalen Hurts is under the microscope, and Bill Belichick may be lurking. The Eagles, however, still boast a strong roster that could help their coach rebound from a disastrous finish. Despite the unraveling, the team got to work on fortifying both sides of the ball early.

Extensions and restructures:

Playing 17-game seasons and coming along in a pass-friendly era, Brown now holds the top two spots on the franchise’s single-season receiving yardage list. Brown broke Mike Quick‘s 39-year-old record in 2022 and eclipsed it again last season. The Eagles did well to pry Brown from a Titans team that erred in assessing the changing WR market two years ago, and Philly’s latest agreement contributed to another positional boom this year.

Shortly before the draft’s first night, the Eagles gave Brown a new deal that topped Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s record-setting AAV. After back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons, Brown landed a $32MM-per-year extension that moved guaranteed money up and gave the Eagles three more years of control. Given the changing market, that might be an issue down the road. The deal includes $84MM guaranteed in total. Brown, 27, also put to rest any rumored concerns he had with the Eagles by recommitting.

Brown’s contract, which runs through 2029, includes void years through 2034. Prorated option bonuses run through 2034, as the Eagles showed consistently this offseason — in rather innovative fashion — they will prioritize short-term cap position over down-the-road concerns.

Just before the Brown extension, the Eagles made a bit of transaction history by locking down Smith. Since the 2011 CBA introduced the fifth-year option, teams have made those decisions annually since the first draft class eligible brought those decisions in 2014. No team in that span had paid a first-round receiver with two years of rookie-deal control remaining. The Eagles became the first, locking down Smith on an extension that became rather team-friendly as the offseason progressed. Smith’s deal both gives the Eagles five years of control and sets up the former Heisman winner as the NFL’s 11th-highest-paid receiver going into the season.

Bailing out the Eagles for their JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Jalen Reagor missteps, Smith has delivered as Brown’s wingman. He has joined the trade acquisition in elevating Hurts, who was tied to a run-heavy offense in Smith’s rookie year. Smith has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, scoring seven TDs in each campaign.

The Eagles having their 25-year-old WR2 as the NFL’s 11th-highest-paid wideout now should age very well, as the market figures to keep spiking or at least gradually increasing while the Alabama alum is tied to this pact. Smith still secured the chance, via a three-year deal, to cash in again in his 20s as well.

Known for taking early action along their offensive front, the Eagles made two steps in that direction this year as well. The first of the Eagles’ would-be Jason Kelce heir apparents — before staying at guard and becoming one of the NFL’s best — Dickerson enters this season as the NFL’s highest-paid guard. The Eagles gave Dickerson $21MM per year, topping Chris Lindstrom‘s previous position record. The former second-round pick became a quick study at left guard, quickly taking over for Brandon Brooks and later helping the Eagles feel comfortable letting Isaac Seumalo walk in free agency.

Developing under acclaimed O-line coach Jeff Stoutland, Dickerson ranked second in pass block win rate and first in run block win rate in 2022. Dickerson also led all interior O-linemen in run block win rate last season, while also ranking as a top-10 player in pass protection. Going into his age-26 season, Dickerson will be counted on as the Eagles aim to replace future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce.

Stoutland completed a more impressive accomplishment with Mailata, leading the effort in the Eagles turning him from a rugby performer to long-term project to standout left tackle. Philly had drafted Andre Dillard to eventually succeed Jason Peters, but a seventh-round pick became the better option. Philly now has three $20MM-per-year O-linemen on an offense with a $50MM-per-year quarterback, an eight-figure running back and two highly compensated receivers.

Two seasons remained on Mailata’s initial Eagles extension (four years, $64MM), but the team operated proactively once again — with cap savings at the root of the move. Mailata’s $22MM-per-year deal tops Lane Johnson‘s AAV while ranking fifth among left tackles. The Australian has yet to draw a Pro Bowl invite, but Pro Football Focus has viewed him as a top-10 tackle in each of the past three years. Run block win rate slotted Johnson and Mailata at Nos. 1 and 2 last season. The Eagles now have their ascending LT signed through 2028, with the team’s usual batch of option bonuses and void years included to defray the cap hits.

As the Eagles rearranged their edge-rushing setup, they prioritized Sweat over Haason Reddick. Though, they took trade calls on both players during an uncertain period ahead of free agency. A 2018 fourth-round pick, Sweat is nearly three years younger (at 27). Sweat was tied to a three-year, $40MM extension that expired after the 2024 season. He agreed to a compromise, accepting a one-year, $10MM redo that came nearly fully guaranteed. With Reddick gone, Sweat is positioned to remain a key piece.

By agreeing to a reworking rather than an extension, Sweat has a platform year ahead and could become one of the 2025 free agent class’ top players with a standout season under the new DC. Sweat slowed late last season along with Reddick, as Philly’s defense crumbled, but he has been a three-year starter and notched 11 sacks as the team pushed for the 1984 Bears’ single-season record in 2022.

The Eagles have Nolan Smith waiting in the wings, and while they will need to see more from the pass-rushing specialist, their 2025 starting OLBs may well be Smith and Bryce Huff.

Free agency additions:

Since trading LeSean McCoy in 2015 (on Chip Kelly‘s watch), the Eagles have kept costs low at running back. They did not re-sign Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard or Miles Sanders and let D’Andre Swift walk this offseason. Swift’s price point became an issue for the Eagles, but Barkley’s subsequent contract revealed how wide of a gap Philly placed between Swift and its new starter. Plenty came out about Barkley’s free agency this offseason, thanks to Hard Knocks’ inaugural offseason effort, but Howie Roseman zagged after the RB market reached a crisis point in 2023.

Barkley joined Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard in being tagged and not extended. This came after the Vikings and Cowboys cut stalwart RBs Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, and the offseason ended with Joe Mixon following Aaron Jones in taking pay cuts. Entering last season, no RB had been given an eight-figure-per-year contract since July 2021. After the cap’s record-setting $30.6MM spike, the RB market — following Jonathan Taylor‘s October extension — course corrected a bit. A host of starters landed decent deals in 2024, but the Eagles came in with an outlier pact that rewarded the top talent on the market. Barkley’s $26MM guarantee at signing leads the RB pack, and the Eagles pounced after the Giants passed on a second franchise tag.

The Eagles won a bidding war that featured a lucrative Texans offer, along with Bears and Chargers interest, for a player who has dealt with a number of injuries but one that has shown difference-making ability when healthy. Barkley spent much of his prime trapped behind poor Giants O-lines. The Eagles are betting the two-time Pro Bowler has some of his prime remaining, and they will place him behind a top-tier offensive front. Barkley still finished in the top 10 in rushing yards over expected last season, and he powered the Giants to the 2022 divisional round despite that team being largely bereft of talent at the skill spots.

GM Joe Schoen citing the RB’s age (27) as a key factor behind the Giants moving on. Though, FA replacement Devin Singletary turns 27 today. The Giants will see the former Offensive Rookie of the Year again soon. Unlike the Falcons and Kirk Cousins, no tampering penalty ultimately emerged for the Eagles.

As the Jets’ standoff with Haason Reddick persists, the Eagles poached a player New York had deemed ill-equipped for full-time duty. The Eagles appear prepared to unleash Huff, who led the NFL in pressure rate (21.8%) during his 10-sack breakout season. The Jets passed on franchise-tagging Huff, and as they aim for Reddick to be an every-down player, the Eagles clearly viewed Robert Saleh‘s designated pass rusher as an underused asset.

The Jets gave Huff, a 2020 UDFA, just 480 defensive snaps last season. He flashed brightly for another imposing defense, albeit in a part-time capacity. Vic Fangio has a history of coaxing high-end production from edge players, with DPR-type Aldon Smith‘s early-career 49ers work coming to mind. The Eagles could come out of this Reddick-for-Huff switch looking good, though they will bet on a player PFF deemed a poor run defender being able to handle an increased workload.

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8 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Philadelphia Eagles

Offseason In Review: Seattle Seahawks

By | at September 2, 2024 10:01 pm

The Seahawks had been able to keep their operation afloat following the Legion of Boom’s gradual splintering, with Russell Wilson making his best statistical Hall of Fame case between Seattle’s mid-2010s Super Bowl seasons and the 2021 campaign that brought an injury and early decline signs. While Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider did well to cash in on their star quarterback in 2022, the team has not turned those assets into a true contender yet. This ended up costing Carroll his job.

Carroll’s right-hand man for 14 years, Schneider now has the final say. He landed on Mike Macdonald, whose Ravens defense took a leap last season. The Seahawks have gone from the NFL’s oldest HC to its youngest. They will hope Macdonald and his staff can better maximize the resources poured into the team following the Wilson trade.

Coaching/front office:

Carroll piloted the Seahawks to their highest peak — by far — in franchise history. It is difficult to make a strong case against the 2013 Seahawks being that decade’s best team and one of this century’s best squads. The Seahawks became the first team since the 1950s Browns — who obviously played in a much smaller NFL — to lead the league in scoring defense in four straight years. Carroll followed up his successful USC stay by guiding the Hawks to 10 playoff berths in 14 seasons, completing an NFL bounce-back effort after being a Jets one-and-done (1994) and being fired after three Patriots seasons.

Another case can be made the Seahawks were not the same team once they gave Wilson the first of his three extensions. The Seahawks made the playoffs five times from 2015-20. They won three wild-card games in that span, but they partially benefited from Blair Walsh‘s 27-yard missed field goal (2015) and Carson Wentz sustaining an early concussion (2019). The Lions team they topped in 2016 also ranked 27th in DVOA. This is not to say those Seahawk editions were not worthy playoff squads, but the franchise’s post-Super Bowl XLIX period saw regular check-ins as a second-tier contender. No conference championship appearances have followed since the infamous Marshawn Lynch “what if?”

Carroll also had to battle age (73 in September) and a new owner (Jody Allen) being in place from when he was hired. While Schneider stayed on and will control Seattle’s 53-man roster, the 15th-year GM will be on the clock if the Seahawks cannot mount a true charge in the near future. They again went in a defensive direction. After initial rumors connected ex-Carroll assistant Dan Quinn to the job, the three-year Cowboys DC was deemed to have been too close to the Carroll setup for team brass’ comfort. Macdonald, 36, became the pick — after a bidding war against the Commanders.

Washington ended up hiring Quinn, but he may well have been the organization’s third choice. The Commanders appeared to covet Lions OC Ben Johnson, and they then pivoted to Macdonald. After Johnson turned them down, the Commanders offered the job to Macdonald. The two-year Ravens DC also was viewed by some as Washington’s top choice. In competing with Washington, Seattle came in with the winning offer. The Commanders’ Macdonald pursuit led to the Seahawks offering a six-year contract. HC contracts are guaranteed, and while Dan Campbell and Dave Canales were two first-timers who received six-year deals during the 2020s (with Matt Rhule landing a seven-year accord), four- or five-year deals are standard NFL practice. Intent on landing their top choice, the Seahawks paid up.

Carroll had tried to keep the job, but a report also suggested he had made midseason comments about retirement. Carroll’s specialty, Seattle’s defense proved a letdown during the team’s second straight 9-8 season. Struggling in particular against the run, Carroll and Clint Hurtt‘s unit ranked 25th in scoring and 28th in DVOA. Enter Macdonald, who coaxed the Ravens to a No. 1 defensive ranking despite late-summer (Jadeveon Clowney) or in-season (Kyle Van Noy) additions in place as the team’s top edge rushers. Baltimore led the league in defensive DVOA, and the ex-Jim Harbaugh Michigan DC received an early chance at a top NFL job.

The Seahawks did not block contracted assistants from pursuing other gigs during the period between Carroll and Macdonald, and OC Shane Waldron joined the Bears. Waldron perhaps has not received sufficient credit for Geno Smith‘s stunning 2022 turnaround, with Canales — Seattle’s QBs coach in 2022 — seeing more praise. While Hurtt was not on the DC radar — he is back with Vic Fangio coaching the Eagles’ D-line — Waldron interviewed with multiple teams.

Seattle’s offense plummeted from ninth to 17th in scoring from 2022-23, with Smith taking a slight step back. Macdonald, whom the Giants blocked from interviewing Mike Kafka (also a Seahawks HC candidate), went off the board in an effort to shape his first offense.

No other teams were connected to Grubb, a career-long college assistant who only brings two years of Power 5 experience. Formerly Fresno State’s OC from 2019-21, Grubb played a central role in powering Washington to the 2023 CFP national title game. Michael Penix Jr. owes some of his elevated draft stock — after an injury-plagued Indiana tenure — to Grubb, whose offense produced Division I-FBS’ passing and receiving leaders (Penix, Rome Odunze). This combo boosted the Huskies to the brink of a national title, after the then-Pac-12 program had not played for one since 1991. Grubb, 48, had agreed to follow Kalen DeBoer to Alabama but ended up viewing this Seahawks offer as a better opportunity.

Schematic changes will be evident immediately in Seattle, and it will be interesting to see how Smith looks in Grubb’s offense. Macdonald kept the Ravens’ long-running 3-4 scheme in place but hired Durde, who had served as the Cowboys’ D-line coach under Quinn. Durde joined Macdonald as an in-demand candidate. The Falcons, Rams and Packers requested meetings, and the Cowboys interviewed him for their DC post — one that ended up going to Mike Zimmer — after the Commanders poached Joe Whitt. Macdonald also considered ex-Ravens coworker Zach Orr, but he received a Baltimore promotion.

Durde, who is English, coached the sport in London for nearly a decade before landing on Quinn’s Falcons staff. As Micah Parsons has shifted to a full-time pass rusher, Durde coached the star talent in a scheme that kept the All-Pro roving around formations. A former Macdonald Ravens mentor, Frazier is back after a 2023 sabbatical. The Bills employed the former Vikings HC as their defensive coordinator for six seasons, but Sean McDermott separated from his previous play-caller in 2023. Frazier’s presence figures to be important on a staff with a first-time HC and rookie DC.

Re-signings:

The Seahawks sent the Giants second- and fifth-round picks for Williams at the 2023 deadline. Hours after the Giants then sent second- and fifth-rounders for Brian Burns, the Seahawks did not let the asset they had acquired leave. Williams is back in the fold, representing a shift for a Seahawks team that continues to invest along the D-line after previously not devoting substantial resources — at least, not until the 2023 Dre’Mont Jones signing — to interior defensive linemen. Jones has since been working on the edge, even after spending five seasons as an interior rusher. Through that lens, the Seahawks have an inside-outside rush combo each on contracts north of $17MM per year.

After not quite living up to his No. 6 overall draft slot as a Jet, Williams has made a habit of timing his resurgences well. On the franchise tag in 2020, the USC product produced 11.5 sacks — far and away a career high — and commanded one of this era’s most player-friendly deals for a defender shortly after the March 2021 franchise tag application deadline (three years, $63MM, $45MM fully guaranteed). Williams did not come close to those 2020 numbers in 2021 or ’22, but upon being dealt to the Seahawks, he posted four sacks and 11 QB hits in 10 games.

Williams, 30, did not help a Seattle run defense that ranked 30th, but Macdonald will plug him into his defense. This could be a good sign for the 10th-year player, as Macdonald just coaxed a dominant season from Ravens DT Justin Madubuike. Williams has an extensive track record as a quality run defender, though his best work on that front came back in his Jets days.

Fant joined Williams in hitting the market. Early deals for Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry helped the 2019 first-round pick, but his Seahawks usage did not create an extensive bidding war. Fant drew 93- and 90-target seasons during his final two Broncos years; after seeing 63 looks in his Seahawks debut, the Iowa product commanded a paltry 43 last season. After 670- and 673-yard showings in offenses with sub-average QB play in Denver, Fant has stalled out in Seattle. This contract, however, would appear to show the team agrees a production uptick should be expected.

The former No. 20 overall pick is the only player in Seahawks history to see his fifth-year option exercised, which is interesting due to his status as a Broncos draft choice. While Fant is unlikely to flirt with numbers ex-Iowa teammate T.J. Hockenson has put up as a pro, Grubb unlocking him could prove a gateway to a higher tier for Seattle’s offense.

Free agency additions:

AFC East fans will recognize several players in this year’s Seahawks starting lineup. Most of the main additions come from that division.

Last year’s Seahawks O-line underwhelmed in terms of performance and health, and the team’s 2024 offering is not off to a great start. Abraham Lucas is again set for an injury-driven absence. Offseason knee surgery, after the right tackle starter missed 11 games last season, led to a reserve/PUP list designation. The Seahawks will become the latest team to call on George Fant, who has begun to make a career of RT fill-in duty.

Fant, 32, never worked as a full-time Seahawks starter during his first stint. He still parlayed that tenure into a three-year, $27.3MM Jets deal. After being a three-year Jets starter, Fant subbed for the Texans by playing 874 RT snaps last year. Lucas’ injury history has become a concern, and the Seahawks did well to bring back their one-time basketball convert for key spot duty.

Seattle landed Williams at a discount, finishing a lengthy recruiting process after the seventh-year vet made a Ravens visit. If he plays to his Dolphins form, the team will need to prepare a big raise in order to keep the former second-rounder beyond 2024.

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14 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Seattle Seahawks

Offseason In Review: New York Jets

By | at September 2, 2024 9:45 pm

After hitting on three foundational pieces in Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall during the 2022 draft, the Jets were ready to contend in 2023. The organization immediately addressed its QB woes, bringing Aaron Rodgers (and friends) to New York last offseason. Despite not having put together a winning season since 2015, optimism was unusually high among the Gang Green faithful.

We all know what happened next. Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury after only four offensive snaps, and the Jets once again had to deal with dismal quarterback play throughout the 2023 campaign. Despite Zach Wilson‘s best worst efforts, the Jets admirably stumbled to seven wins.

Considering the Jets’ all-in approach, 2023 was undoubtedly a lost season. Fortunately, it wasn’t all lost in New York. The organization was still able to identify some key roster holes, and it used the 2024 offseason to act accordingly. By adding key players via free agency and the draft, the Jets may have set themselves up for even more success than envisioned a year ago.

Coaching/front office:

  • Retained head coach Robert Saleh, GM Joe Douglas
  • Parted ways with assistant GM Rex Hogan

Thanks to the efforts of head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas, there would have been optimism heading into 2023 even if the Jets hadn’t acquired a future Hall of Fame quarterback. Unfortunately, the team’s offensive improvements proved short-lived, and the Jets’ 7-10 record in 2023 was once again a reflection of the offense.

With the organization again failing to make the playoffs, both the head coach and the GM found themselves on the hot seat. Of course, even the most basic context would indicate that 2023’s failures couldn’t entirely be attributed on the duo, and Woody Johnson seemed to share that sentiment when he announced that he’d retain his HC/GM tandem. Reports of paranoia from within the organization hint that there could be cracks in the foundation, but ownership is willing to give the franchise architectures at least one more shot (this time with a healthy Aaron Rodgers).

One storyline to watch in 2024 will surround the handling of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Following a failed stint as the Broncos’ head coach, the former Packers OC teamed up with Rodgers again for the 2023 campaign. When the franchise QB went down, Hackett faced a lot of the blame for the Jets’ offensive inadequacies, leading Saleh to explore a hire to whom Hackett would cede at least some authority. No hire emerged, and while Rodgers again vouched for the embattled OC, Hackett certainly joins the other central Jets decision-makers on the hot seat.

Extensions and restructures:

C.J. Mosley did not have the best start in New York after inking a then-record-setting five-year, $85MM deal in 2019, but the former Ravens draftee has since reclaimed his place as one of the NFL’s top linebackers. With no guaranteed money remaining on the player’s contract, the Jets committed fully to the linebacker for the 2024 campaign while also providing an option for 2025. Of course, this brought a reduction in AAV from Mosley’s previous $17MM-per-year number. He was not the only accomplished linebacker to accept a salary reduction in exchange for guarantees; the Jaguars proceeded this way with Foye Oluokun as well.

Mosley has strung together back-to-back 150-plus-tackle slates and collected his first All-Pro honor — a second-team selection — in 2022. Thanks to the offseason extension, he’ll continue to roll in a high-end tandem with Quincy Williams for at least one more season.

Trades:

The Jets appeared to have it all figured out when they acquired Haason Reddick from the Eagles. The organization had just let Bryce Huff walk to Philly on a lucrative deal, and with Reddick no longer in the Eagles’ plans, the Jets swooped in and acquired the veteran. Unfortunately, Reddick decided to play hardball in pursuit of a contract extension, leading to one of the organization’s biggest offseason headaches in recent years.

The impending free agent still has not reported to his new squad, and considering the Jets’ refusal to negotiate until Reddick actually shows up to team facilities, it is seeming increasingly likely that the holdout will extend into the regular season.

A two-time Pro Bowler who has compiled the fourth-most sacks during the 2020s (50.5) recently took the drastic step of requesting a trade out of New York, but the Jets would be hard-pressed to find a suitor considering the player’s contract demands.

Reddick, 30 this month, has sought a deal in the $25-$28MM-per-year range, while the Jets offered him a below-market number before acquiring him via trade. Reddick had expected the Jets to revisit extension talks, but the team wanted to gauge his fit first. This led to a staredown and the eventual trade request. The Jets were rumored to be ready to adapt Reddick’s 2024 earnings via sweeteners, but the linebacker is seeking term on any extension. Usually we’d wait until one side blinks, but it sounds like neither a stubborn Reddick nor a stubborn Jets front office are willing to relent.

The Jets were not done making trades, with the organization finally ripping off the human-sized Band-Aid that was quarterback Zach Wilson. There was once hope that the former No. 2 overall pick would help lead a rebuilt Jets squad to the promised land. After struggling as a rookie and failing as a sophomore, the Jets pivoted to veteran Aaron Rodgers as their new QB savior. Still, the organization was confident that Wilson could be a future contributor while learning under Rodgers’ tutelage. Instead, Wilson was thrust right back into the lineup.

Wilson’s 60.1% completing and 1.9% interception rates in 2023 both marked career-best figures, but his 4-7 showing as a starter (which included an eventual refusal to move back into the starting lineup, a charge Wilson denied) spelled the end of his tenure in New York. The Jets benched Wilson a grand total of three times. It appears he is headed into this season as the Broncos’ third-string quarterback.

While the Jets have generally used free agency and the draft to address their offensive line, the team did swing a trade for a starting-caliber tackle. The Jets acquired old friend Morgan Moses, who spent the 2021 campaign in New York. Since then, the veteran had a two-year stint in Baltimore. Pro Football Focus basically ranked Moses as a top-15 tackle between those two campaigns. One of the NFL’s longest-tenured tackle starters, Moses will line up on the right side of the line for the Jets, but the team’s newfound depth means the veteran will have to perform to keep his spot.

The Jets moved on from John Franklin-Myers following a four-year pairing. The defensive lineman turned into one of the team’s most reliable pass rushers in recent years, with Franklin-Myers collecting 14.5 sacks between 2021 and 2023. Reddick’s incoming salary represented a key reason why the Jets bailed on Franklin-Myers, a three-year starter for the team. The Broncos, however, reworked the versatile D-lineman’s contract and are prepared to use him as a starter in their 3-4 scheme.

Free agency additions:

With Zach Wilson failing as the starter, the Jets quickly realized they should have rostered a better contingency option for Aaron Rodgers. So, the team went out and acquired one of the top backup quarterbacks on the market, handing Taylor more than $8MM in guaranteed money to (hopefully) sit on the bench.

Taylor has not started double-digit games since the 2017 campaign, but the journeyman QB has garnered 15 combined starts over the past six years. Over that span, he has gone 6-8-1 as a starter while completing 59.9% of his passes for 3,079 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. While the Jets obviously prefer for Rodgers to be healthy, all wouldn’t be completely lost — at least, compared to last year’s plan — if Taylor is forced into the lineup.

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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By | at September 1, 2024 9:33 pm

Replacing the player most consider the greatest quarterback in NFL history, the Buccaneers also entered last season with more than $70MM in dead money — much if from Tom Brady‘s retirement — on their payroll. After the team defended its NFC South title and saw Baker Mayfield pilot a late-season charge, GM Jason Licht signed off on largely running it back in 2024.

While OC Dave Canales departed, Mayfield joined some Super Bowl-era cornerstones in recommitting to the Bucs. This effort, which included two record-setting extensions, will test how well the Bucs have built their roster. The team still plays in what again looks like the NFL’s worst division. It would surprise if this mass retention effort did not keep the Bucs a threat for a fourth straight home wild-card game.

Extensions and restructures:

With the exception of the Bengals’ rental plans involving Tee Higgins, teams operated intently with their franchise- or transition-tagged players. While the Patriots used the transition tag on Kyle Dugger, the Bucs ensured Winfield could not test the market by slapping the franchise tag on the All-Pro. This turned out to be a significant offseason for the team’s breakthrough 2020 draft class, with pillars Winfield and Wirfs being locked down long term. Months before Wirfs’ payday, Winfield came in with a deal that tops all safeties and proved to outpace all cornerbacks as well.

The safety market featured interesting twists this year. A host of veteran safeties — Justin Simmons and Quandre Diggs among them — became cap casualties. Many others settled for middle-class money as unrestricted free agents. As a market correction appeared in the works, the Packers gave Xavier McKinney a top-four safety deal. This brought good news for Winfield, who is a more accomplished safety. McKinney’s Green Bay deal reminded teams were still willing to pay up for the top young players at the position, and rumblings about Winfield requiring a record-setting extension surfaced soon after.

A 2020 second-round pick, Winfield became an immediate starter and helped the Bucs stonewall a historically explosive Chiefs offense in Super Bowl LV. The Bucs had expressed interest in extending the second-generation NFL DB in 2023, but Winfield ended up benefiting from the team waiting. He delivered a first-team All-Pro showing, complete with three interceptions, six sacks and an NFL-high six forced fumbles. The sixth of those strips denied DJ Chark at the goal line in a narrow Bucs Week 18 win over the Panthers, leading to a division title. Despite Mayfield and Mike Evans‘ free agencies, Winfield always loomed as Tampa Bay’s clear tag candidate.

This pact checks in more than $2MM north of Derwin James‘ previous safety high-water mark, in terms of AAV, with the $21.03MM-per-year number also coming in higher than Jaire Alexander‘s CB record. In terms of guarantees at signing, Winfield’s $45MM separates him by $7MM from the safety pack. The threat of the Bucs tagging Winfield again in 2025 contributed to the team needing to go here to extend its top DB. Not hailed on the same level as Jamal Adams‘ 2021 extension that provided a gap between the then-Seahawks safety and the field, Winfield’s deal quietly accomplished this as well.

Going into free agency, Licht did not classify a 2024 Wirfs deal as a priority. After Tampa Bay checked its other top contract matters off the list, Wirfs made sure it became one. A spring report suggested the sides were far apart.

The Bucs had developed an atypical habit of waiting until after key players’ contracts expired to pay them. They did this with Shaq Barrett in 2021, Carlton Davis in 2022 and Jamel Dean last year. This trend continued in 2024, with Evans and Mayfield on the cusp of free agency before re-signing. Winfield also needed to be tagged, upon playing out his rookie deal. Wirfs staged a hold-in to force the team’s hand, and the Bucs deviated from their usual timeline.

The Bucs saw the tackle market move before acting on Wirfs. While this may have cost the team a bit, this extension was actually early compared to when the team normally does business. Penei Sewell became the rare right tackle to reset the market for all tackles, scoring a $28MM-per-year Lions extension and the Vikings then gave Christian Darrisaw a deal that topped the LT market — at $26MM per.

Wirfs, 25, is more accomplished than both, being a three-time Pro Bowler — at two different positions — and collecting first- and second-team All-Pro honors. Also helping Tampa Bay during its Brady years, Wirfs made a successful transition to the left side in 2023. Of the four tackles chosen in the top 13 picks in 2020, Wirfs — selected 13th overall — has been the best to date.

The Iowa product’s deal reflects this. The Bucs gave the fifth-year blocker $11MM more in guarantees ($88.2MM) than any other tackle. Tampa Bay did convince Wirfs to sign a five-year deal, but the contract does not tie Wirfs to his team for as long as Andrew Thomas‘ Giants pact does. Wirfs signed effectively a six-year commitment, whereas the Giants’ No. 4 overall pick in 2020 — who agreed to terms after his third season — gave his team seven years of control. Wirfs’ resolution matches the Lions’ Sewell term length, with the NFC North champs doing a deal following their RT’s third season.

With teams making significant updates to the tackle market this offseason, the NFL’s first $30MM-per-year tackle is likely coming soon.

Re-signings:

Value swings have defined Mayfield’s career. He went from an impressive rookie year that dragged the Browns out of the worst period in franchise history to enduring a major regression under overmatched HC Freddie Kitchens. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick then bounced back under Kevin Stefanski, giving the Browns their first playoff win since the franchise reboot. After Mayfield extension rumors did not produce serious negotiations in 2021, an early-season shoulder injury harpooned his value. The Browns then made their controversial (and financially damaging) Deshaun Watson trade, and Mayfield did not improve in Carolina, turning in his worst NFL season. That led to the Bucs nabbing him for $4MM; the sides’ second negotiation proved more complicated.

Mayfield needed to beat out Kyle Trask for the starting job, and Tampa Bay started 4-7. But the veteran showed flashes during the season’s first half and then piloted the team to a division-winning finish — likely saving Todd Bowles‘ job — and a wild-card romp over an Eagles team in crisis.

Mayfield, 29, had produced a better QBR with Stefanski, and his 54.3 number last year actually came in under his much-maligned 2019 season’s output (54.4). Mayfield ranked 18th in the metric in 2023. Under Canales, though, Mayfield finished with a career-high 28 TD passes (compared to 10 INTs). Following a 337-yard, three-TD showing against the Eagles, Mayfield held his own in Detroit in the divisional round (349/3, with two INTs) to better position himself for a higher-end 2024 contract.

The 2017 Heisman winner had said he wanted to stay with the Bucs, but they will have a harder time building around a $33.3MM-per-year contract than they did in 2023. That said, Brady’s $35.1MM dead money bill brought far more in combined QB cap allocations compared to where Mayfield’s money is this year ($6.9MM). Even after the current passer’s cap number spikes to $35.78MM in 2025, the ’23 Bucs still carried more in combined quarterback money on the payroll. With eight QBs now over $50MM per year and Dak Prescott set to become No. 9 soon or in 2025, Mayfield in this middle-class price range is not as player-friendly as the massive raise would suggest.

The sides completed a deal before free agency, and while loose Falcons and Patriots connections emerged, Mayfield never seemed close to leaving the team that revitalized his career. Barring an 11th-hour Prescott extension, Mayfield will enter the season as the NFL’s 19th-highest-paid quarterback. The seventh-year passer will see $10MM added to his guarantee total on Day 5 of the 2025 league year. It would cost the Bucs more than $26MM in dead money to bail before that date, giving the QB some security — though, not full-fledged assurances he will be back in 2025 — if another regression occurs.

Discussions about the second-best wide receiver in Bucs history — for the handful of folks who have drifted far enough off path to address this matter — probably center on Chris Godwin, Kevin House, Mark Carrier or Vincent Jackson. The gap between this tier and Evans is rather wide.

Making a Frank Gore-like Hall of Fame case based on consistency, Evans leads the Bucs in receiving by nearly 5,000 yards. The 10-time 1,000-yard receiver has been a modicum of consistency, providing high production baselines for Brady, Jameis Winston and Mayfield during his career. Evans does not have a first-team All-Pro honor on his resume (two second-team nods) and has surpassed 1,300 yards in a season just twice (2016, 2018), but he has been durable and did enough in 2023 to convince the Bucs to re-sign him — after a separation appeared in play.

Going public with frustration about his situation last August, Evans had confirmed the Bucs had not made an offer as the 2023 season neared. The decorated WR had seen the position’s market boom, while he remained tied to a $16.5MM-per-year deal he agreed to in 2018. That contract had plummeted toward the position’s middle class, with Godwin even surpassing it on his current $20MM-AAV accord. Evans matched the NFL lead in receiving TDs (13) last season, as the Bucs shut down trade inquiries. Rumblings about another Bucs deal surfaced, and the sides came together without the 2014 first-rounder reaching free agency.

Evans, 31, had aimed to test the market and later said he would have considered the Chiefs or Texans if a viable Tampa Bay offer did not emerge. Instead, the Bucs gave their dependable pass catcher a frontloaded contract. In addition to the $29MM guaranteed at signing, another $6MM will come Evans’ way if he is on the Bucs’ roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year. Barring a trade, he almost certainly will be. Regardless, Evans will almost definitely see all $41MM on this deal.

This is David’s fifth Bucs contract. As he continues to anchor the team’s second level, David ended up nearly doubling his 2023 contract (one year, $4.5MM) ahead of his age-34 season. The former second-round pick’s 134 tackles last season were his most since 2015 — his most recent Pro Bowl season, though the Bucs’ time in a 4-3 defense during the LB’s prime hurt his Pro Bowl count — and Pro Football Focus rated David as a top-25 off-ball ‘backer for the seventh straight year.

A one-team player, David had said it was Bucs or retirement this offseason. The Bucs will continue to lean on David, who trails only Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks for Tampa Bay service time by a defender.

This is also Gholston’s fifth Bucs contract, as Licht’s retention approach did not only include higher-end contracts. Gholston has started 88 Bucs games, playing in 169. It is rare in today’s NFL when a 12th-year player is not his team’s longest-tenured defender, but David still holds that distinction. These two are the only remaining links to Bowles’ Super Bowl LV front seven. Gholston, 33, saw his playing time drop considerably in 2023; he played a career-low 244 defensive snaps. The Bucs still kept the veteran D-lineman around as a backup, with two recent early-round picks — starters Calijah Kancey, Logan Hall — to mentor.

Free agency additions:

Licht had bemoaned his decision to let Whitehead walk as a free agent in 2022, but the team did not operate with a full-on retention strategy the way it had in 2021. Whitehead, who started 55 games with the Bucs from 2018-21, played out a two-year, $14MM Jets deal. The Jets wanted to re-sign Whitehead but did not deem that a high priority. Whitehead is back in place as a safety starter, set to work alongside Winfield. From 2018-20, the Bucs used six second-, third- or fourth-round picks on DBs. Three remain with the team, as Dean continues on his 2023 re-up. Despite going into his seventh season, Whitehead is just 27.

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6 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offseason In Review: New England Patriots

By | at August 31, 2024 9:59 pm

Four years into the post-Tom Brady era, the Patriots hit a new low. New England finished the 2023 campaign with only four wins, their lowest total since Bill Belichick’s five-win debut in 2000. That dismal performance ultimately led to the legendary coach’s ouster, meaning the organization has officially hit the reset button with two of their three franchise pillars out the door.

Owner Robert Kraft remains, and he’s hoping his two highest-profile offseason moves will help guide the franchise to another stretch of success. Jerod Mayo takes over along the sideline, with the unofficial co-defensive coordinator (and assumed Belichick successor) earning the promotion to HC. On the field, the team invested the No. 3 overall pick on North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, a raw but talented prospect who possesses more upside than any of the other QBs who have taken the field since Brady’s departure.

That duo will be hard pressed to match even a fraction of Brady and Belichick’s accolades, but they’re obviously not being tasked with reaching those same heights. Instead, Kraft and Co. will be counting on his rebuilding squad to show same flashes of potential in 2024, perhaps convincing ownership to open up the checkbook next offseason.

Coaching/front office:

Bill Belichick’s resume is undeniable, and the organization wouldn’t have won six Super Bowl rings without him roaming the sideline. However, considering his full dominion over every facet of football operations, he was chiefly responsible for the team’s downfall in recent years.

Even ignoring his influence on Tom Brady’s departure, Belichick made questionable decisions as both a coach and GM over the past four years. From his mishandling of the coaching staff (which featured handing the offense to former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former special teams coordinator Joe Judge) to his mishandling of the quarterback position (which never featured a full endorsement of former first-round pick Mac Jones), Belichick was as much to blame as anybody in the organization.

Following the team’s worst showing during Belichick’s tenure, the head coach and owner Robert Kraft ultimately decided to part ways. This officially ended one of the most successful runs in North American sports history, and with the two main contributors to New England’s dynasties no longer in the building, the Patriots have officially kicked off a new era.

While ownership went through a faux head coaching cycle, the team landed on the assumed successor: former linebacker and recent de facto defensive coordinator Jerod Mayo. The former first-round pick rejected previous head coaching inquiries to stick in New England, a major clue that he was likely going to succeed Belichick when the time came. While Mayo showed some coaching talent while guiding the defense alongside Stephen Belichick, it obviously remains to be seen if he has the ability to guide an entire organization. At the very least, he’ll provide a fresh voice to Belichick’s old-school (and, potentially, antiquated) approach.

Mayo was immediately tasked with filling out his coaching staff. On offense, he landed on Alex Van Pelt, who was a surprise scapegoat following Cleveland’s blowout playoff loss last year. Van Pelt got the most out of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt during his four-year stint with the Browns, but the passing offense often left much to be desired. The offensive coordinator certainly won’t be evaluated for his rebuilding unit’s performance in 2024, but the organization will be hoping the offense shows some progress before the season is through.

On defense, Mayo settled on a familiar face to guide the way. DeMarcus Covington has been with the Patriots staff since 2017, working his way up from an assistant to the team’s defensive line coach. Covington was credited with the development of former second-round pick Christian Barmore, and Matt Judon and Josh Uche have both had success on the edge under the coach’s tutelage.

Belichick’s departure also left a major hole in the front office, where the legendary coach had full control over the roster. For that gig, the organization also opted for the long-rumored favorite: director of scouting Eliot Wolf. The son of long-time Packers GM Ron Wolf, Eliot will be tasked with bringing some of that Green Bay mentality to New England. In that arrangement, the organization would value the personnel department’s input vs. the head coach’s final say (a tactic that was impossible with Belichick at the helm).

Belichick’s ouster obviously had rippling effects on every facet of the organization. The coach’s eventual departure was inevitable, and while his successors may take time to find their footing, the Patriots have overcome the first hurdle of ripping off the Belichick-sized band-aid.

Extensions and restructures:

Curiously, while many pundits critiqued Bill Belichick’s recent draft track record and attributed it partly to his New England demise, the team still put in efforts to retain many of his extension-eligible draft picks.

Two of the team’s three foundational extensions came on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots first slapped safety Kyle Dugger with the rarely-used transition tag before handing him a lucrative four-year extension. The former second-round pick doesn’t have any Pro Bowl appearances on his resume, and Pro Football Focus has been inconsistent with their evaluation of the defensive back. Still, Duggar has proven himself to be one of New England’s most reliable defenders in recent years, with the safety compiling nine interceptions and 20 passes defended. Facing an uncertain future, some consistency and familiarity will be key.

The Patriots also made a sizable commitment to defensive tackle Christian Barmore, assuring the former second-round pick is in New England for the foreseeable future. The Alabama product’s production took a clear step forward this past season, with Barmore compiling 8.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss in 2023, the second season in which he was healthy for every game. Barmore added 19 pressures and 16 QB hits, and he ranked eighth among defensive tackles in terms of PFF grade (83.8).

On the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots strayed from Belichick’s former playbook by handing a running back a notable extension. Rhamondre Stevenson’s extension won’t break the bank, but the four-year commitment certainly shows a change in philosophies. The former fourth-round pick has been one of New England’s most consistent offensive contributors in recent years, including a 2022 campaign where he collected 1,461 yards from scrimmage.

David Andrews represents one of the lone holdovers from the team’s Super Bowl-winning days. The veteran center managed to start all 17 games for the second time in three years, and the Patriots are assuring he’ll continue to stick around as the team transitions to Drake Maye under center. Both Jabrill Peppers and Davon Godchaux were savvy former pickups by the Patriots in free agency, and the veterans were rewarded for their efforts with multi-year extensions.

Trades:

The Patriots didn’t seem entirely committed to Mac Jones during his sophomore season, and the quarterback clearly fell out of the team’s plans following his 2-9 showing as a starter in 2023. Even before the team committed to drafting Drake Maye with the third-overall pick, New England decided to move on from their former first-round pick.

Jones had an up-and-down showing during his time with the Patriots. His best season came as a rookie, when he tossed 22 touchdowns, earned a Pro Bowl nod, and helped guide the Patriots to a postseason appearance. The wheels fell off over the subsequent two years, although the organization certainly didn’t put the signal-caller in a position to succeed. With Jones showing signs of regression and possessing only one-plus season remaining on his rookie contract, the Patriots decided to revamp their QB situation by dealing the player to Jacksonville.

As the Patriots handed out extensions left and right, the team curiously didn’t give a long-term pact to one of their most deserving players. Matt Judon took his play to another level after joining the Patriots as a free agent in 2021, with the edge rusher collecting 28 sacks between the 2021 and 2022 campaigns. His 2023 season was limited to only four games, and with the defender set to enter his age-32 season, the Patriots were wary of tacking on additional term to his contract.

While the front office was willing to increase his $6.5MM base salary for the 2024 campaign, it sounded like Judon wasn’t all that interested in a lame-duck status with a rebuilding squad. So, the Patriots made a move that was probably inevitable anyway by the time the trade deadline came around, sending their top defender to Atlanta for a third-round pick.

Free agency additions:

Armed with a chunk of cap room, the Patriots entered the offseason with some high hopes. While the team pursued some of the top names on the market, the front office ended up settling for some depth moves in a clear effort to evaluate their holdovers and draft picks.

Offensively, the team’s most notable free agent addition was also a familiar face. Jacoby Brissett was a third-round pick by the Patriots back in 2016, but the QB only lasted one season in New England before he was dealt to the Colts, where he filled in (and eventually succeeded) Andrew Luck. He proved himself to be a capable starter but not a ceiling-raiser, and he’s since established a reputation as one of the league’s premier QB2s.

In New England, the veteran will keep the seat warm until Drake Maye is ready to roll. It’s uncertain if Brissett will run the offense for all or just part of the 2024 campaign, and the team’s sizable guaranteed commitment shows they’re paying up for the uncertain role.

The team added a handful of additional offensive players who could play fringe roles for the 2024 Patriots. Antonio Gibson proved himself to be a capable pass-catching back during his stint in Washington, and the veteran should provide the Patriots with a change-of-pace option at the RB position. K.J. Osborn topped 500 receiving yards in Minnesota in each of the past three seasons, but with an uncertain QB room and a relatively deep WR room, he probably won’t top those numbers in New England. Austin Hooper brings some experience to the tight end room, although the departed Mike Gesicki’s tepid New England production shows that we shouldn’t expect a whole lot from Hunter Henry’s backup.

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12 comments New England Patriots Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Chicago Bears

By | at August 29, 2024 9:55 pm

A quarterback-starved franchise for much of their existence, the Bears secured a rare opportunity to finally check that box off their to-do list. Last year’s trade with the Panthers brought about a move that may well not have occurred in a normal year. After building the 2023 offseason around Justin Fields, GM Ryan Poles cut bait on the run-oriented QB to prepare for a Caleb Williams-centered future.

The Bears have now secured a rare opportunity to reset their quarterback contract clock, moving on from a fourth-year passer to a rookie with a much higher ceiling. Williams now leads a Bears team that spent extensive time equipping its new passer with weaponry, setting up one of the most intriguing periods in this storied franchise’s history.

Extensions and restructures:

Poles acquired two new receiver regulars for Williams to target, but he also rewarded the one obtained in 2023. Moore stretched his run of 1,000-yard seasons to four — with four different primary starting QBs — and continued to do so with passers regarded well off the top tier at the position. Fields’ issues with accuracy aside, Moore smashed his career-high receiving mark from Carolina with a 1,364-yard Chicago debut. Moore also established a new career-best TD number (eight) and ranked in the top 15 in yards per route run (2.31). A Bears franchise that does not have many standout receiver seasons in its history enjoyed one during a mostly forgettable slate.

Moore, 27, said he did not shoot for a Justin Jefferson-level payday; the seventh-year player still did very well. Moore’s total guarantee number ($82.6MM) trails only Jefferson and A.J. Brown — as if we needed even more components impacting Brandon Aiyuk‘s endless 49ers negotiations — and the Bears structured this contract like a team that has a rookie QB deal around which to build. Moore’s cap number jumps from $7.2MM to $24.9MM from 2024-25, and this through-2029 contract — two seasons remained on his 2022 Panthers extension — does not include any void years.

The Bears guaranteed Moore’s 2024 and ’25 base salaries but have some flexibility beyond that. Moore’s age and production history should make this $27.5MM-per-year deal a win for the Bears, who secured four more seasons of control and would only be on the hook for prorated signing bonus money if they moved on post-2025. Seeing as Moore is a rare No. 1 wide receiver to stop through Chicago, any departure rumors can be tabled into the late 2020s. The Maryland alum’s deal will overlap with Williams and Rome Odunze‘s rookie contracts for at least three years.

More than four months earlier, the Bears reached a quick resolution with Johnson. They did so despite allowing Johnson’s camp to negotiate with other teams at the 2023 trade deadline. The Bears were not satisfied with any trade offers, wanting a first- or second-round pick for a player who had not shown All-Pro-level form from 2020-22. Interest from multiple teams ensued, but Poles soon affirmed he wanted Johnson in the fold long term.

The Bears and Chiefs snapped a notable drought of cornerback franchise tags; the Rams’ second Trumaine Johnson tag (2017) represented the most recent such move coming into this offseason. While the Chiefs tagged L’Jarius Sneed to fetch draft capital in a trade — as the NFL’s latest dynasty operates around one-contract CBs — the Bears had more room to pay their tagged cover man.

Poles has made his stamp on this defense, having now given high-end contracts to defenders on all three levels. The third-year GM paid Tremaine Edmunds and Montez Sweat last year and re-upped Johnson days before free agency. Johnson had expressed some frustration Sweat was paid first despite his midseason arrival and mentioned an aim at becoming the NFL’s highest-paid corner. The Bears did not give in there, but the former second-round pick — after a well-timed breakout — did well in terms of guarantees.

After subsequent deals for Sneed, Tyson Campbell and AJ Terrell, Johnson’s AAV sits 10th among corners. It is a bit unusual for a franchise-tagged player to settle for such placement, but Johnson secured $43.8MM fully guaranteed — fourth among corners — and $54MM guaranteed in total (seventh). This is also a clean contract, with no void years involved and the former second-round pick’s 2026 guarantee not vesting until that year. Johnson’s 2024 and ’25 base salaries are guaranteed; the fifth-year CB is due $44MM in that span. That is more than two tags would have covered, explaining how the Bears finalized this deal so quickly.

Pro Football Focus graded Johnson first overall among corners, and Pro-Football-Reference’s coverage metrics backed that up. After allowing passer ratings (as the closest defender) north of 94.0 from 2020-22, Johnson checked in with a 50.9 number last season — a four-INT slate that produced a second-team All-Pro honor. The Bears are confident this was not merely a contract-year outlier; they will count on Johnson to anchor their mid-2020s secondaries.

Trades:

Although feigned debate surfaced about this decision, those in the league never seemed to be convinced the Bears strongly considered passing on Williams to keep Fields. The Bears wanted a Day 2 pick for their three-year starter, a player around whom they themed the 2023 trade (which moved them out of C.J. Stroud/Bryce Young territory), and the Falcons were floated as a possibility. The Fields market turned out to be ice cold. If now-starter Russell Wilson can hold off the younger passer and play 50% of the Steelers’ 2024 snaps, the Bears will only collect a 2025 sixth. Fields reaching the 51% play-time barrier would give Chicago Pittsburgh’s 2025 fourth.

Poles, of course, did not draft Fields. That would have made it borderline insane had the third-year GM passed on a second straight No. 1 overall pick. The Panthers throwing Young into a terrible spot became the Bears’ golden ticket, with Chicago benefiting from the lowest point in Carolina’s history.

Poles labeled Fields’ murky status exiting the season a unique situation, and the Bears were then tied to wanting a historic haul for the top pick. No real noise about Fields having a shot to stick in the Windy City emerged henceforth, and while the Bears may or may not have passed on other offers to do right by the former No. 11 pick, it is hard to believe they rejected a significantly superior proposal. The four other teams to discuss Fields with the Bears viewed him as a backup.

That said, Fields (23rd in 2023 QBR) would probably still be the Bears’ quarterback had Young elevated the Panthers out of the NFL basement. Though, the Bears landing the Nos. 2 or 3 picks via the Panthers may still have resulted in them dealing Fields and starting over with Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. Fortunately for Poles, his decision proved easier. The Steelers passed on Fields’ fifth-year option, and the electric runner/sack-prone passer will not be extended in 2024. Fields looks to have a shot at sticking with the Steelers via a 2025 re-signing, but he will need to overtake Wilson and show growth.

One of this era’s premier route-running technicians, Allen joins the Bears ahead of his age-32 season. The Bears landed the 11-year Charger despite interest from the Texans and Jets emerging; those teams circled back to other vets, while Allen began a contract year in Chicago.

The new Bolts regime offered Allen an extension, but the receiver’s camp labeled the proposal a pay cut. Allen remains tied to the $20MM-per-year deal he signed in 2020, and while he is open to an extension, the Bears now have Moore and Odunze signed long term. Even with Williams on a rookie deal, the team paying Allen even midlevel money beyond 2024 would be somewhat difficult. After all, the team has also paid a running back (D’Andre Swift) and tight end (Cole Kmet).

Allen is a six-time Pro Bowler who has excelled in the slot and on the perimeter. A strong Bears season could vault the former third-rounder from the Hall of Very Good tier to a player with a viable Canton case. As it stands, Williams will have one of the game’s best separators — ESPN’s Open Score metric placed Allen first in 2023 — to target in Year 1. Allen showed scant decline signs last season, averaging a career-best 95.6 yards per game and surpassing 1,200 for just the second time in a season. He got there in 13 games. The Bears will hope to extract one more prime-level year from the aging talent.

Bates remains on the Bears-built contract from 2022, when the Bills matched an offer sheet early in Poles’ GM tenure. The Bills used Bates as a 2022 starter but demoted him to a full-time backup last season. Bates, 27, battled Coleman Shelton for the center job but has missed time due to an undisclosed injury. Bates looks like the Bears’ sixth man up front when he recovers.

Taylor flashed in Seattle, posting 9.5 sacks and forcing four fumbles in 2022. He also totaled at least 5.5 sacks in each of his three healthy seasons. The former second-rounder, due for unrestricted free agency in 2025, has a chance to boost his value as a Montez Sweat sidekick.

Free agency additions:

The Bears joined the Eagles, Texans and others in entering the Saquon Barkley sweepstakes, and while Giants GM Joe Schoen indicated on Hard Knocks that Chicago had driven up the two-time Pro Bowler’s price, it looked to be a Philly negotiation that defined the running back market’s early hours. The Eagles were looking into re-signing Swift but saw his price point move past their comfort zone, and they pivoted to Barkley, whom Howie Roseman‘s team clearly viewed on a higher tier. Swift became the 2024 UFA market’s first commit, as the Bears continued to load up a roster around another rookie-scale QB contract.

Familiar with Swift from his Lions days, the Bears gave him the second-most money among UFA backs this year. Swift’s $14MM guarantee at signing outflanked Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Devin Singletary and Aaron Jones. The ex-Detroit second-rounder’s age (25) and lighter workload by comparison to the other available backs undoubtedly boosted his stock. Swift will begin his Bears tenure with 788 career touches. Injuries were an issue for the Georgia alum in Detroit, which fetched barely a fourth-rounder in a 2023 trade.

Swift stayed healthy in Philly, booking a Pro Bowl nod after 1,049-yard rushing season. The former No. 35 overall pick also has two seasons (2020, ’22) in which he ranked in the top 10 among RBs in yards per catch, with the Lions using him as more of a dual threat compared to the Eagles. The Bears figure to take advantage of Swift’s multipurpose skillset, with the upper-middle-class RB contract pairing with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson‘s rookie deals.

Byard joins Swift in coming from Philly, though the Eagles had cut the former All-Pro. Considering what happened on the safety market this offseason, Byard did well. As fellow cap casualties Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Marcus Maye and Eddie Jackson all took one-year deals worth less than $4MM, Byard saw his guarantee approach where Justin Simmons‘ market went. The four-time All-Pro scored $7.5MM guaranteed from the Falcons. Byard, 31, has two first-team All-Pro distinctions on his resume (2017, 2021) and will provide a cheaper solution to Jackson’s Ryan Pace-authorized extension. Despite Byard’s involvement in the Eagles’ late-season collapse, Pro Football Focus rated him 22nd among safeties last year.

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13 comments Chicago Bears Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Detroit Lions

By | at August 25, 2024 11:13 pm

All due respect to the Barry Sanders– and Erik Kramer-driven 1991 season, last year brought the Lions’ most successful slate since their 1957 championship campaign. Narrowly missing their first Super Bowl berth, the Lions still moved their rebuild — one that featured a 3-13-1 team in 2021 — to the NFC championship game. The Brad Holmes–Dan Campbell operation has changed the franchise’s trajectory, making good on the hype the 2023 offseason brought.

As Detroit attempts to kick down the door and book its first Super Bowl berth, its payroll changed significantly. The equation now includes big-ticket contracts for Jared Goff and other cornerstones, but last year’s draft class infused the roster with impact talent that will be tied to rookie deals for a bit. Campbell’s team will try to capitalize on the combination of rookie-contract talent and lower Year 1 cap numbers for its recently extended stars.

Extensions and restructures:

Goff became the first domino to fall this offseason on the quarterback market, and the former No. 1 overall pick is now the oldest member of the $50MM-per-year club. The only $50MM-per-year passer north of 27, Goff (30 in October) has completed a remarkable turnaround. The Lions needed to take on Goff’s 2019 Rams extension to collect the two-first-rounder package from the Rams for Matthew Stafford. Rather than Goff being the bridge QB most assumed, the five-year Los Angeles starter turned his career around in Detroit. The Lions have protected Goff with a top-flight offensive line, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has become a No. 1 target. This has stabilized the career of a passer who did not fare well in his first Lions season.

Holmes continually resisted labeling Goff a stopgap, and the Lions then benefited from what became a team-friendly contract over the past two seasons. Goff played well on his $33.5MM-per-year Rams deal, ranking fifth and 11th in QBR during Ben Johnson‘s play-calling years. The Lions passed on the 2021 first-round QB contingent, instead taking Penei Sewell to protect Goff in Round 1. A maligned 2022 first-round QB crop followed, and the Lions took Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams. After Goff’s promising 2022, Detroit continued to build around him rather than take the traditional route and find a younger arm at a rookie-scale rate.

These decisions meant Goff would need to be extended, with Holmes indicating the quarterback he once helped draft as the Rams’ college scouting director had earned a new deal. The Lions made Goff the NFL’s second-highest-paid player (for a few weeks, at least), striking first to help set the market for Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love. Of the eight $50MM-AAV clubbers, only Goff is on a third contract. That separates his situation from the pack, but the Lions continue to show belief in a player Sean McVay discarded.

Beating Stafford’s Rams in a wild-card game, edging the Buccaneers and then pushing the 49ers to the brink, Goff secured quality terms on his deal — even if Lawrence and Love passed him in AAV months later. The popular rolling guarantee structure is in place here, with Goff set to see $20MM of his $35MM 2026 base salary guarantee in 2025. More than a third of Goff’s 2027 base salary ($50MM) will lock in a year early as well. The Lions are betting big on a player who arrived as a depressed asset, but they went to work on ensuring their other early-2020s pillars would remain in the fold as well.

Perhaps best known for the five-QB first round that failed to produce franchise options, the 2021 draft nevertheless equipped the Lions with offensive cornerstones. After the Bengals chose Ja’Marr Chase over Sewell, the Lions pounced. Both players have become standouts. While Cincinnati is angling to pay Chase in 2025, Detroit stepped up early on a market-changing deal.

Sewell not only became the NFL’s highest-paid right tackle, he was the league’s top tackle earner at the time of signing. Although his contract changed the LT market — as the Buccaneers have since given Tristan Wirfs the highest tackle AAV — Sewell’s contract still checks in on its own level among RTs. His $28MM per-year number leads the RT pack by $8MM.

The Lions stationed Sewell at left tackle for much of 2021, keeping him at his college position, but that only occurred because of a Taylor Decker injury. Over the past two years, the Oregon product has become a dominant right tackle. Sewell’s RT move coincided with Goff’s late-20s rebound, as the Lions formed an elite O-line. Pro Football Focus ranked Detoit’s O-line eighth in 2022 and second last season. Sewell ranked sixth in pass block win rate last season and has made back-to-back Pro Bowls — not the easiest feat for a right tackle — along with earning a 2023 All-Pro first-team nod.

This should be a sound Lions move, as Sewell will not turn 24 until October. This should ensure his prime occurs in the Motor City. Sewell agreeing to a four-year contract also separates him from recently extended tackles Wirfs, Christian Darrisaw and Andrew Thomas. The Lions RT will likely be able to come back to the table during his late 20s, presenting the opportunity for two monster paydays.

St. Brown will not turn 25 until October. At the rate receivers are being paid, his third contract will probably be north of $40MM per year when the time arrives. The Lions expected to have a franchise tackle when they chose Sewell; St. Brown provided a surprise.

Arriving when the Lions were retooling at the position, the former fourth-round pick showed immediate promise and became entrenched in Detroit’s starting lineup during the team’s 2021 restart. Since his 912-yard rookie year, the tenacious wideout climbed to 1,161 and 1,514. The latter showing made St. Brown the Lions’ first All-Pro wideout since Calvin Johnson in 2013.

Giving midlevel deals to the likes of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones in between Megatron’s extension and the St. Brown deal, the Lions bided their time before reinvesting. They nabbed St. Brown, who has carried a perpetual chip on his shoulder due to being chosen 112th overall, and made him the NFL’s highest-paid receiver — at the time. St. Brown was linked to a $26-$28MM-per-year number during negotiations, but his camp inflated that figure by the time of signing.

St. Brown joined Tyreek Hill as the league’s only $30MM-per-year WRs, driving both A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson to seek higher-end deals and affecting the markets of CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk and Ja’Marr Chase. St. Brown’s deal includes $77MM guaranteed in total, with the USC alum’s $27.5MM 2026 base salary locking in by March 2025. After St. Brown played through a significant oblique injury last season, the Lions will hope he has another gear to hit during the mid-’20s.

Holmes still found room to circle back to Decker, doing so despite the dependable left tackle arriving as a Bob Quinn pick and going into his age-30 season. Decker has started since his 2016 rookie year and turns 30 just this week. This marks the former first-rounder’s third NFL contract. Decker’s $20MM-per-year deal does not have rolling guarantee mechanisms like Goff, Sewell and St. Brown’s do, but he did well to lock in nearly $32MM at signing on a three-year accord.

This season, Decker will move into third — behind only Jeff Backus and Lomas Brown — for starts by a Lions tackle. After toiling for some middling Lions teams late in Jim Caldwell‘s tenure and enduring another rebuild after the Matt Patricia hire bombed, Decker reemerged on a playoff squad. The Ohio State alum has not secured any Pro Bowl nods, but pass block win rate rated him seventh among all tackles in 2023. PFF also assigned Decker a ninth-place finish at the position last season. The Lions have their top-tier tackle pair signed through 2027.

The prices are rising here, but Detroit backloading the extensions keeps costs manageable for 2024. Goff’s cap number is only $27.2MM, St. Brown’s $4.86MM. Sewell and Decker respectively count just $8.2MM and $10.9MM.

Trades:

The Lions’ cornerback situation would soon become more complicated, but they saw it prove unreliable on the field in 2023. (Aaron Glenn‘s pass defense ranked 27th.) This led to Detroit starting the league year by obtaining Davis, whose three-year, $45MM Tampa Bay contract expires after this season. Despite Davis being in a walk year, the Lions gave up a third-rounder in a pick-swap deal. Making corner a priority, the Lions subsequently paired the former Super Bowl starter with a host of new names.

Detroit also looked into L’Jarius Sneed and Marshon Lattimore, but Davis’ top complementary pieces soon came via the draft. A 2018 second-round pick, Davis has 75 starts on his resume and will not turn 28 until New Year’s Eve. He hit free agency as one of the top defenders available in 2022, but the Bucs paid Jamel Dean a year later.

Davis intercepted four passes during Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl-winning season and collectively held QBs to sub-58% completion rates (as the closest defender) in 2021 and ’22. Last season, that number climbed to 61.4%; PFF graded Davis 68th among CBs. The Lions will still bet on the defender excelling in Glenn’s scheme, and they hold exclusive negotiating rights with him until March.

Free agency additions:

Jonah Jackson served as the Lions’ second-longest-tenured O-line starter, holding that role from 2020-23, but proved too expensive — as could be expected, given the guard market and the Lions’ offseason extension plans — to retain. Enter Zeitler, who continues to excel for northern-based teams. The former Bengals first-rounder has remained a reliable piece for the Browns (2017-18), Giants (2019-20) and Ravens (2021-23). Zeitler is going into his age-34 season, but he snared his first Pro Bowl honor in 2023.

This is a temporary solution, but the Lions nabbing one of this era’s most seasoned guards for $6MM probably represents a win — especially given what proven guards cost this offseason. Zeitler discussed terms with the Ravens, who had signed him following a Giants cut in 2021, but Baltimore opted to cut costs up front. PFF graded Zeitler as a top-15 guard in each of his three Ravens seasons, giving the Lions optimism he will be able to hold form into his mid-30s. Zeitler’s 181 career starts are also in the top 20 all time among guards, and the new Detroit RG leads the pack among active guards.

One of the league’s better run stuffers for years, Reader recently recovered from a second quad tear. The former Texans and Bengals nose tackle tore both quads during his Cincinnati tenure. In between, he anchored Cincinnati’s interior during back-to-back AFC championship game seasons. PFF rated Super Bowl LVI starter rated as a top-11 D-tackle in each of the past three seasons, and PFR’s top 50 free agent list placed him 25th.

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14 comments Detroit Lions Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

By | at August 23, 2024 10:30 pm

A year after hiring Frank Reich, the Panthers rebooted once again. David Tepper‘s rocky ownership tenure now includes a third HC hire — after another interim staff closed out a season. Carolina missed a sixth straight playoff bracket, with a 2-15 record — when factoring in what led them there — dropping the franchise to its lowest point. As Tepper continues to receive earned criticism, Dan Morgan and Dave Canales are at work attempting to rebuild this operation.

Coaching/front office:

The Panthers are well behind on the scorecards early in the Bryce Young–C.J. Stroud matchup. After being widely reported to have driven the bus for Young over the eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year, Tepper has hired a coach who played lead roles in elevating two depressed assets. Canales comes to Charlotte after being Geno Smith‘s quarterbacks coach (2022) and Baker Mayfield‘s OC. This represents a quick rise for someone with one year of play-calling experience, but Canales has been an NFL assistant since 2010.

Tied to wanting an offensive coach once again, even after a preference for this coaching background brought an 11-game Reich stint, Tepper was closely linked to Lions OC Ben Johnson for a second offseason. Johnson dropped out of the Panthers’ HC search last year but interviewed with the team once again in January. Carolina sent a request a day after the regular season ended, and a mid-January report listed Johnson as both the Panthers and Commanders’ top choice. The Panthers may well have received word Johnson was not interested, as they hired Canales on Jan. 25. Johnson was still in the mix for the Commanders until Jan. 30.

Tepper’s run of headlines, along with the team’s poor performance and the depleted draft capital the Young trade caused, stood to make Carolina’s job less attractive. Thus, the Panthers offered Canales a six-year contract. This comes four years after Tepper signed off on (and soon regretted) Matt Rhule‘s seven-year, $62MM deal. It is unlikely Canales commanded a Rhule-level salary, but he will benefit from the Panthers’ recent instability via the six guaranteed years. The Panthers got off the Rhule contract thanks to offset language, which came up after Nebraska hired him, but they are on the hook for Reich — who is expected to retire — through 2026.

Given a $3.5MM 2022 contract, Smith went from needing to beat out Drew Lock to be the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson replacement to winning Comeback Player of the Year acclaim and leading the NFL in completion rate. That garnered Canales the Tampa Bay job, and Mayfield just went from $4MM player to a quarterback given a three-year, $100MM deal to remain a Buccaneer. In between, the previously downtrodden passer threw 28 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, finishing third for Comeback Player of the Year (behind Joe Flacco and Damar Hamlin).

Canales, 43, is one of the fastest-rising assistants in recent memory, not being on the HC radar until 2024. Although the Panthers did not present the top job for aspiring HCs this offseason, they have an intriguing option who will be tasked with rebuilding Young’s stock.

Tepper’s presence also made Carolina’s GM vacancy unattractive by comparison. Despite firing his other two top decision-makers from the early 2020s — Rhule and Fitterer — Tepper promoted Morgan, who was along for the ride since returning to the organization in May 2021. A former Panthers first-round pick as a linebacker, Morgan started 59 games for the team before injury trouble ended the one-time Pro Bowler’s career early. Morgan and Canales worked together — one a rising exec, the other Pete Carroll‘s WRs coach — in Seattle from 2010-17 — before the former followed ex-Panthers staffer Brandon Beane to Buffalo. The Bills have now sent two high-ranking Beane staffers — Morgan and Joe Schoen — into GM chairs.

Morgan received one other GM interview since returning to Charlotte, meeting about the Steelers’ job in 2022. Tepper certainly has familiarity with Morgan, though it is interesting the seventh-year owner promoted from in-house after canning Rhule and Fitterer. The latter held decision-making power — sort of, as Tepper continues to play a major role in football ops — following Rhule’s firing and was in charge for the Christian McCaffrey trade, the Brian Burns non-trade and the Young deal that sent D.J. Moore (and the Caleb Williams draft slot) to the Bears. Morgan, 45, will set out trying to correct some of the missteps his head-honcho predecessors made.

The point man behind the innovative Patrick Mahomes contract, Tilis will work with Morgan in this turnaround effort. The Panthers had interviewed Tilis for the GM post in 2022 and ’24. As Tilis arrives, the Panthers axed Adrian Wilson after one year. The former Cardinals safety-turned-Arizona exec had signed on to be the Panthers’ VP of player personnel in 2023. An arrest on misdemeanor domestic violence charges led Wilson out.

Canales brought Idzik, the Bucs’ wide receivers coach, with him as a non-play-calling OC. The son of ex-Jets GM John Idzik, Brad also worked with Canales in Seattle — as a lower-level assistant. Idzik, at 32, is the NFL’s youngest active OC. No OC interest elsewhere developed for Idzik, but plenty of teams wanted to interview Evero for both HC and DC positions.

For a second straight offseason, Evero drew extensive interest despite being tied to a bad team. He was a popular HC interviewee after the 2022 Broncos fielded a viable defense (amid their offensive mess) and drew interest again after the 2023 Panthers’ defense ranked fourth in yardage allowed (29th in scoring, 25th DVOA).

The Panthers blocked three teams — the Jaguars, Giants and Dolphins — from interviewing Evero, who is now tied to a coach and GM that did not hire him. The Rams, who employed Evero from 2017-21, also loomed as interested. Unlike the Broncos last year, the Panthers would not let Evero out of his contract — an endgame the suddenly popular assistant may well have sought.

Trades:

The Giants talked the Panthers down from a first-round price point for Burns, who famously drew a two-first-rounder (plus a third) offer from the Rams at the 2022 trade deadline. Carolina then kept Burns out of the Young trade. Burns held the Panthers’ 2022 decision against them for the rest of their negotiations and pushed for what seemed like unreasonable terms, based on his history, by seeking a deal in the $30MM-per-year ballpark. That price point emerged before Nick Bosa became the NFL’s first $30MM-AAV edge rusher. Weeks into Morgan’s GM tenure, he cut the cord.

Morgan and Schoen worked together in Buffalo, and this relationship catalyzed this saga’s culmination. Fitterer and Rhule prioritized an extension with Burns, but the former waited until last year to enter serious negotiations. Trade offers that did not rival the Rams’ 2022 presentation emerged at the 2023 deadline, and after franchise-tagging Burns, the Panthers paused extension talks. Hard Knocks revealed this came as trade buzz percolated. This worked out quite well for for the tagged OLB, who signed a $28.2MM-per-year Giants extension that came with $87.5MM guaranteed.

The Giants can be accused of overpayment, but the Jaguars topped Burns’ deal for Josh Hines-Allen. Neither player has been confused with a top-tier edge rusher, but they are now the NFL’s second- and third-highest-paid cogs at the position. Burns, 26, ranks just 12th and 14th in sacks and QB hits since entering the league as a Ron Rivera-Marty Hurney draftee in 2019. This saga still did not make the Panthers look great, given what they passed on two Octobers ago. But Morgan took what he could get late in the game and greenlit a full-on (lower-cost) reboot on the edge.

A day later, Carolina pounced on a Pittsburgh asset that should have more upside compared to what the team gave up. Johnson has been a better player than Jackson, consistently showing high-end separation skills. Drops have plagued the shifty route runner, but he is frequently open. The former third-round pick ranked in the top four in ESPN’s Open Score metric each year from 2019-22, leading the league twice in that span. Johnson, 28, played with Mason Rudolph, a declining Ben Roethlisberger, Mitch Trubisky and potential bust Kenny Pickett. Drawing 140-plus targets each season from 2020-22, Johnson should see plenty of looks in a Panthers contract year.

Carolina acquired Johnson’s two-year, $36.71MM contract, which pairs with Young’s rookie deal and the rookie-scale pacts of Xavier Legette and Jonathan Mingo. Last year’s Panthers receiving leader, Adam Thielen, is now 34 and does not have any guarantees on his contract post-2024. Johnson is interested in a Panthers extension, and unless this fit proves poor, the team is in position to authorize one. If nothing else, the five-year Steeler should give Young an open target in a crucial season for his development.

A 2018 second-rounder, Jackson signed a three-year, $35.18MM deal during Rhule’s time in charge. Jackson, who reworked his deal with the Steelers, was a potential release candidate. Carolina landing Johnson in the deal probably qualifies as a win. The 76-game starter did bounce back from an injury-plagued 2022, but he turns 29 this fall. Johnson will cost more on a third contract, but the Toledo alum almost definitely has longer to play.

Free agency additions:

Week 18 of the 2022 season saw Panthers starters Austin Corbett and Brady Christensen go down with major injuries. Both sustained new maladies in 2023, with the latter lost for the season in Week 1. The Panthers struggled to protect Young, and just as the Saints did during Drew Brees‘ tenure, the team sought interior protection for a short quarterback. Two teams signed multiple guards in PFR’s top 50; the Panthers joined the Rams in that regard. Four of the five eight-figure-per-year free agency deals for guards came from Carolina or Los Angeles, and Hunt’s led the way by a notable margin.

Relocated from right tackle to right guard after his rookie season, Hunt started there for three years and set himself up for a windfall. He is one of just five guards to be tied to a deal worth at least $20MM per year.

Becoming free agency-eligible — during a year that brought Miami cap trouble — unleashed Hunt and Christian Wilkins on the market, and the Panthers are betting big the former second-round pick can lead a turnaround. PFF slotted Hunt as a top-12 guard in each of the past two seasons. This can be labeled an overpay due to Hunt (28 on Saturday) having no Pro Bowl of All-Pro nods on his resume, but the cap spiked by a record $30.6MM. Certain players benefited, few more so than Hunt.

A four-year starter in Seattle, Lewis flew a bit under the radar by comparison. Teams still drove his market past $13MM per year, making the former third-rounder a top-15 earner on an escalating market. More road grader than pass protector, Lewis ranked fourth in run block win rate in 2022. While the 27-year-old lineman saw his PFF placements vacillate, this deep guard class did remarkably well.

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9 comments Carolina Panthers Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

By | at August 22, 2024 9:57 pm

The Chiefs once again flipped a regular-season loss to the Bills into a playoff win, continuing a series that keeps seeing Buffalo’s Super Bowl path blocked despite the AFC East champions holding their own in the matchup. After an injury-battered Bills defense came up short in Round 2 last year, the team set about a retooling effort that featured more notable changes on the other side of the ball. Josh Allen has a new-look receiving corps. For the first time since his ascent to superstardom, the do-it-all QB will not be targeting Stefon Diggs.

Additional Bills moves centered on cap-based adjustments, with a few longtime starters — some longer in the tooth, others who had dealt with injuries — also out of the picture. As a result, curiosity surrounds Sean McDermott‘s team and perhaps the eighth-year HC’s status. But the Bills still have Allen and many key pieces from their early-2020s stay atop their division. While they should still remain a factor in the Super Bowl chase, plenty of eyes will be on this team as it reshapes its blueprint to reach its long-sought-after goal.

Trades:

As difficult as it appeared Diggs was for the Bills to manage at points, his 2020 arrival played a pivotal role in Allen catapulting toward his current place in the game. The 2018 first-round pick took a seminal step in Diggs’ debut, and the former Vikings draftee became one of the NFL’s most consistent pass catchers in Buffalo.

The Allen-Diggs tandem produced three straight 1,200-plus-yard seasons, with Year 1 doubling as Diggs’ lone first-team All-Pro showing. The elite route runner also displayed durability for a Bills team that shuffled through second bananas in the passing game, missing only one contest in four seasons. Though, last year brought some concerning signs.

Diggs, 30, struggled down the stretch, averaging only 41 yards per game and scoring just once over the Bills’ final 10 contests; Joe Brady‘s offense did not coax the nine-year veteran’s best work. Diggs’ 1,183-yard season brought speedbumps and produced a brutal final act — dropping a well-placed Allen deep ball late in another narrow January loss to the Chiefs.

Diggs’ sudden production decline came a year after he stormed out of Buffalo’s locker room following a one-sided loss to Cincinnati. During the 2023 offseason program, Diggs left the Bills’ facility unexpectedly — before McDermott called the confusing matter, which may or may not have stemmed from the wideout’s role in the offense, “very concerning.” A year later, Diggs will be asked to help the Texans develop C.J. Stroud.

A report pointed to the Texans including a 2025 second-rounder as changing Buffalo brass’ mind on retaining the WR. That said, this trade brought a non-QB record for single-player dead money ($31.1MM). That full amount is on the Bills’ 2024 cap sheet. Considering what it cost the Bills to trade their top target, it clearly did not take too much convincing on the Texans’ part. Indeed, an April report indicated Diggs’ antics had worn thin and Bills higher-ups were ready to move on. Ultimately, Diggs (zero TDs with Brady at the controls) expected to be traded for a second time.

The Texans had pursued Keenan Allen; they needed to give the Bills more than the Bears sent the Chargers. Houston curiously removed the final three seasons of Diggs’ Bills-constructed extension — four years, $96MM — in a reported effort to better motivate the veteran playmaker. That odd decision will put Diggs on track for free agency come March, barring an extension before that point. Diggs exiting western New York with four years remaining on his contract injects uncertainty into the Bills’ equation, as Allen’s age-28 season does not seem likely to include a true No. 1 receiver. Allen has obviously displayed tremendous growth since his rocky pre-Diggs years, but his team has an issue to sort out soon.

Playing on a Bears-designed contract for the past two seasons, Bates is now part of that team. The Bills matched the Bears’ RFA offer sheet during Ryan Poles‘ first offseason running the NFC North franchise, but after using Bates as a starter in 15 games in 2022, they demoted him upon adding guards Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence. Bates worked strictly as a backup last season; the 27-year-old blocker is vying for Chicago’s starting center role while giving the team an option at right guard.

Extensions and restructures:

More attention surrounded the players the Bills lost this offseason, but the team paid two core performers. Dawkins is the longest-tenured Bills left tackle since Jim Kelly– and Doug Flutie-era blindsider John Fina. Only Fina (131) and 1970s and ’80s LT bastion Ken Jones (130) have served longer in this role. Carrying 106 career starts, Dawkins will have a chance to top this list during the 2025 season. Cordy Glenn‘s LT successor has made the past three Pro Bowls, anchoring an O-line that has seen changes come to pass everywhere else during his eight-year tenure.

Pass block win rate placed Dawkins fourth overall among tackles last season, and Pro Football Focus has ranked him outside the top 25 among tackles only once (2018). Dawkins, 30, has also avoided injuries. A second-round pick during the draft McDermott and Doug Whaley shepherded (one that also produced Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano), Dawkins has been one of the team’s catalysts during this rise. This third contract should include more prime years for the Temple product, who is now the NFL’s sixth-highest-paid LT. Given Dawkins’ stability, the Bills having him at this rate represents good value.

Coming into the offseason, the slot cornerback market had stagnated. Neither Johnson nor Kenny Moore were able to score deals beyond where 2010s All-Decade slot Chris Harris went ($8.5MM AAV) during the 2014 season. Both current AFC slot staples finally elevated the market to eight-figure-per-year territory. Moore re-signed with the Colts at three years and $30MM; Johnson topped that days later to become the league’s highest-paid inside corner. The Bills CB’s guarantee at signing also narrowly topped Moore’s $16MM figure, which is impressive considering the latter hit free agency.

During Johnson’s second contract, the Bills have seen their outside corners struggle to either stay healthy (Tre’Davious White) or justify a first-round investment (Kaiir Elam). Johnson, meanwhile, has anchored Buffalo’s CB corps during the 2020s. PFF gave the 2018 fourth-rounder a career-best grade last season, ranking him 17th among all corners, and his 7.4 yards per target figure was his best mark since his rookie season. Johnson also forced three fumbles in 2023. As the Bills transition from White, they will need Johnson (28) to keep delivering top-shelf work inside.

Miller’s status loomed as tenuous during a season in which he was clearly hampered by a second ACL tear. The year ended with the future Hall of Famer being arrested on a third-degree felony charge of assaulting a pregnant person. Both Miller and the alleged victim, his girlfriend, denied a crime occurred. An NFL suspension would void Miller’s remaining guarantees — $8.5MM for 2024. After this year, no guaranteed money remains on a deal that has not worked out the way the Bills hoped. Nothing has come out in 2024 regarding any potential punishment for the 35-year-old edge rusher, and the Bills restructuring the deal firmly keeps Miller in their plans.

The former Broncos and Rams superstar said he is 100% healthy; he is now nearly 21 months removed from the knee injury that ended his 2022 season — a promising campaign that featured eight sacks in 11 games — and sidetracked his 2023 slate. Miller played in 12 games, starting none, last season and did not resemble the dominant sack artist the Bills signed for $20MM per. The team will hope the 14th-year vet has another rebound season in him, as it lost Leonard Floyd in free agency. Due to this restructure, the Bills would take on $15.4MM in dead money if they released Miller next year.

Allen denied he is unhappy with his contract, but the Bills have an incredible bargain atop their payroll. Their $43MM-per-year Allen accord has aged remarkably well, as the perennial MVP candidate — after Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love joined the $50MM-AAV club — is the NFL’s 13th-highest-paid QB. The Bills could move money around the way the Chiefs did to accommodate Patrick Mahomes‘ deal.

Thus far, Allen is the only QB who has emulated Mahomes by signing an extension longer than five years. The six-year pact Allen signed runs through 2028, and like Mahomes’ deal, Allen’s has extended space for base-to-bonus restructures. The Bills took advantage of that flexibility in March.

The Bills will need to address this matter in the not-too-distant future. With five more seasons on the contract, the team can sit tight for now. As is the case with Mahomes and the Chiefs, however, the QB carries significant leverage due simply to his franchise-elevating skillset. It will be interesting to see if the seventh-year passer uses it soon, especially when factoring in the run-game role the former No. 7 overall pick has taken on — only two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton) have logged more carries through six seasons — thus far in his career.

Free agency additions:

Buffalo began to reassemble its wide receiver pieces in March, though Samuel and Hollins joined the team when Diggs was still expected to be the WR1. This equation soon involved Valdes-Scantling, Byrd, Hamler and Chase Claypool. The twice-traded WR, however, is out of the picture via an injury settlement. Holdover Khalil Shakir and second-round pick Keon Coleman figure to lead the way for the Bills, with a heavy assist from TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, but the team will need auxiliary help at least from free agents.

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11 comments Buffalo Bills Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

By | at August 20, 2024 10:17 pm

Continuing to zag when it comes to quarterback development and roster construction, the Packers centered their offseason around a Jordan Love commitment. After seeing a promising second half from their Aaron Rodgers successor nearly produce a voyage to the NFC championship game, the Pack are back in the franchise-QB payment business.

Love’s monster extension complements an offense that lost two of its veteran pillars — in Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari — as the team continues to build around lofty investments on the defensive side. But the Packers’ Love decision, which is certainly a different route when it comes to an experience-to-dollars ratio, will define the franchise for the foreseeable future.

Extensions and restructures:

When Rodgers agreed to his first extension during his 2008 starter debut season — a six-year, $63.52MM deal, illustrating where QB contracts have gone — it did not check in as a record-setting payday. It was not particularly close, either. Carson Palmer‘s Bengals extension outflanked Rodgers’ first Packers deal. So did Peyton Manning‘s 2004 Colts payday, along with Tom Brady‘s first Patriots re-up and Ben Roethlisberger‘s initial Steelers extension. That gave the Packers a runway to better learn about Rodgers’ capabilities. The organization was certainly proven right and suddenly had a bargain deal at quarterback until the 2013 offseason.

Today’s skyrocketing QB market changed the equation for Love and the team, which needed to match an NFL-record AAV for a player with 18 regular-season starts. This era of one-upping differs from how a few teams handled QB contracts even following Rodgers’ 2013 extension. No one topped the Packer QB’s $22MM-per-year deal until the 2016 offseason. A host of deals in 2015 (for Roethlisberger, Wilson, Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) settled between $20MM and $21.9MM per year, acknowledging Rodgers’ place in the game. For the most part, these sort of acknowledgments no longer exist.

Love’s deal not coming with a discount keeps the Packers in the high-cost QB business, as 2023 — which featured near-record-tying (pre-Russell Wilson, at least) dead money from the Rodgers trade — did not bring a reprieve. Diving right back into a top-market contract, as Rodgers’ deal came off the books this year, ramps up the pressure for Brian Gutekunst and Co. to be right on the player they traded up for in 2020.

Both parties wanted this deal done by training camp, and Love held in to complete the process. The Packers agreeing to a half-measure extension, rather than pick up a fully guaranteed fifth-year option on a player who entered 2023 with one career start, provided Love leverage. The QB capitalized, joining Tua Tagovailoa in this regard, on his contract-year status. The Packers would have faced a $40MM-plus 2025 cap hold had Love played out this season and brought the threat of a franchise tag. Whereas teams have held more control during this process by extending a first-round quarterback after his third season, Green Bay’s outlier three-year apprenticeship program did not give the team that option. After a promising close to last season, Love was able to exert more control in this process.

Struggling during much of the season’s first half, Love led the NFL in QBR from Weeks 11-18 — a stretch that included 18 TD passes and one INT. The four-year veteran was then tremendous in the Packers’ wild-card upset over the Cowboys, before leading the NFC’s first competitive No. 7 seed to a narrow loss over the eventual NFC champion 49ers. Love obviously made for an atypical extension candidate, but the Packers are all in.

Contract structure was believed to be the final issue for Love’s camp. A team that does not do post-Year 1 guarantees beyond signing bonuses again bent for a quarterback, and Love secured the increasingly popular rolling guarantee structure on this deal.

Love’s 2025 salary is guaranteed at signing, and his 2026 base salary is partially guaranteed already. That 2026 figure will become fully guaranteed in 2025. That structure pertains to Love’s 2027 base salary as well. The team guaranteed $20MM of the QB’s ’27 base ($41.9MM) for injury at signing; that $20MM shifts to a full guarantee a year early. Love did remarkably well on this contract and will be positioned, should his late-season form be indicative of his career trajectory, to cash in again before age 30.

The Packers took care of Clark before his contract year, bringing up an extension earlier this offseason and completing the agreement before training camp. Despite coming into the league in 2016, Clark will not turn 29 until October. The Pack should have more prime years coming from the former first-round pick — one of six first-rounders still on Green Bay’s defense — and they completed a deal without going into the top 10 on a swiftly rising D-tackle market. Clark’s $21.33MM AAV both marked a notable raise and the 11th-highest-paid DT accord.

Keeping with the Pack’s non-QB standard, the only guaranteed money in Clark’s deal comes from his signing bonus. But the eighth-year DT is owed a $7.5MM roster bonus next March. That ups the practical guarantee to $25MM. It would cost the Packers $17MM in dead money to move on from Clark in 2026, due to signing bonus proration. This gives the veteran a good chance of staying on this through-2027 deal for at least three seasons. Clark is due an $11MM roster bonus in 2026.

The UCLA alum ranks seventh in starts (109) by a Packer D-lineman. He can move into first all time on this contract; Dave Hanner (1953-64) holds that mark at 141.

Free agency additions:

Although Hard Knocks primarily focused on the Giants’ Saquon Barkley loss, it also revealed surprise on Giants GM Joe Schoen‘s part upon learning McKinney’s contract.After factoring in a McKinney extension upon letting Julian Love walk in 2023, the Giants did not keep him off the market for the transition tag sum ($13.8MM). That may have been a mistake. The former second-round pick proceeded to score a top-four safety contract, with the Packers paying up to address an issue.

Green Bay moved on from its top three safeties last year (Darnell Savage. Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford) and paid McKinney, who submitted two quality Giants seasons and two injury-plagued years. After a McKinney ATV accident led to him missing much of the 2022 campaign, Pro Football Focus graded him as the No. 4 overall safety last season. McKinney, 26, represents an out-of-character move from the Packers, who are not known for paying safeties or signing off on — even in the Gutekunst era — top-market free agency accords.

McKinney played the Jessie Bates role on this year’s market. As another macro safety evaluation appeared to take place this year — leading to the releases of several prominent veterans and a slew of mid-market payments for unrestricted free agents — McKinney’s price came in nearly $8MM higher (in terms of AAV) than any other UFA safety. After Bates (four years, $64MM) rewarded the Falcons for their high-cost addition, the Packers won a bidding war for McKinney, who has also shown quality ball skills in his career. The Alabama alum intercepted five passes in 2021 and three last season. Referring to himself as the game’s best safety, McKinney will attempt to prove it in Wisconsin.

Perhaps the most notable participant on a historically busy day at the running back position, the Packers said goodbye to a seven-year regular (Aaron Jones) and brought in Jacobs. The five-year Raiders starter is three years younger than Jones, and while the former has not proven as dynamic, the incumbent approaching his 30th birthday undoubtedly played into Green Bay’s thinking here. Jacobs, 26, won the 2022 rushing title but is coming off a far less productive year on the franchise tag. The Packers will bet on more prime years remaining for Jacobs, who was part of last year’s famous RB macro evaluation.

The Raiders, Giants and Cowboys respectively not extending their tagged running backs — after the Packers had given Jones a pay cut and the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) and Vikings (Dalvin Cook) had released longtime starters — prompted a Zoom meeting among key backs about their state of the union. Jacobs, who rampaged for an NFL-high 2,053 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022, accumulated only 1,101 last season — before missing four games due to multiple contusions. After producing the fifth-most rushing yards over expected in 2022 (158), Jacobs finished with the fifth-worst number (minus-86) last year.

Matt LaFleur admitted he was caught off-guard by how the Packers’ running back situation shook out, and Jacobs also indicated he turned down more money elsewhere. More pass-game opportunities should be expected to emerge for Jacobs, who did catch 107 combined passes from 2021-22.

Green Bay’s Jones-to-Jacobs transition is also interesting due to the younger back having more career touches (1,502) compared to Jones (1,449). Jacobs has missed 10 career games; since 2019, Jones has also missed 10. Six of those came last season. While the Packers guaranteed Jacobs just $12.5MM, he is due a $5.93MM signing bonus if on Green Bay’s roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year.

This profiles as a two-year deal before a year-to-year scenario takes shape in 2026. Even if Jacobs’ 2025 roster bonus is included, he still fetched far less in fully guaranteed money than Barkley, who secured $26MM from the Eagles despite a well-documented injury history and a higher touch total.

Re-signings:

Adding slot cornerback to his duties along with return specialist, Nixon scored a solid veteran deal two years after following Rich Bisaccia from Las Vegas. The Raiders nontendered Nixon as an RFA in 2022, leading to Bisaccia’s new team reaching out. Nixon mostly focused on a return-game role in 2022; he blazed to first-team All-Pro status as a kick returner. Nixon repeated that feat in 2023, and the Packers re-signed him just before the NFL radically revamped its kickoff setup. That change stands to make Nixon more valuable.

Of course, Nixon receiving a $6MM-per-year deal was also contingent on him continuing as the team’s slot corner. The Packers abandoned their Rasul Douglas slot experiment during the 2022 season and went into last year with Nixon in that role. He played 937 defensive snaps — by far a career high — and while PFF graded him outside the top 80 and Pro-Football-Reference’s coverage metrics applied higher numbers in terms of completion percentage (77.8%) and passer rating (104.8), the Packers clearly value the former UDFA in a cornerback group that features little certainty beyond Jaire Alexander.

Dillon did not do nearly as well in free agency. On a crowded RB market, the inside grinder settled for a deal that provided next to no guaranteed money. Jones’ powerful complementary option for four seasons, Dillon averaged a career-worst 3.4 yards per carry last year — his first under 4.1 per tote.

The former second-round pick has been effective in the past, and while he said a bit more money may have been out there for him, the Green Bay aficionado — Dillon plans to camp in the city following his NFL career — entered training camp on the roster bubble.

Notable losses:

As Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul ran wild during the 2020 NFC championship game, Bakhtiari’s absence created one of the bigger what-ifs in offensive line history. The Packers saw an ACL tear sustained during a New Year’s Eve practice change their left tackle course, as Bakhtiari — a first-team All-Pro that season and a five-time All-Pro over his career — has been unable to stay healthy since.

The stalwart LT missed all but 27 snaps in 2021, returning to the sideline after debuting in a meaningless Week 18 game, and — after showing promising form in 11 games back in 2022 — missed almost all of last season. This all pointed to a 2024 separation.

Green Bay had restructured Bakhtiari’s deal in 2021 and ’22, immediately seeing the four-year, $92MM extension — only Rodgers and Love have signed more lucrative deals among Packers — become an issue quickly due to the once-dependable LT signing it weeks before his knee injury. Bakhtiari, who has undergone five knee surgeries since that fateful practice, will count $18.15MM in dead money this year. Like Rodgers’ dead cap hit in 2023, Bakhtiari’s contract will be off the team’s books for good after a year. The 11-year veteran, 33 in September, wants to keep playing but has not caught on anywhere.

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