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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

September 8th, 2023 at 10:04pm CST by Sam Robinson

Sticking with their all-in approach around Tom Brady a year too long, the Buccaneers still benefited considerably from their 2020 free agency coup. The franchise added a second Super Bowl title and saw Brady display better form in 2021. Brady’s unretirement helped the Bucs stay atop the NFC South, but it took a historically terrible division for that to happen. The Bruce Arians-to-Todd Bowles transition did not go well, and the latter’s seat may already be warm.

The Bucs’ round of early-2020s restructures — Brady’s chief among them — led to cap trouble this year and did not allow for the team to make splashy outside upgrades. As a result, the Bucs are not receiving much attention going into their first post-Brady season.

Free agency additions:

Mayfield will soon take snaps for a fourth team in barely 20 months. The Ravens also discussed terms with Mayfield, though those talks were framed around the former No. 1 overall pick becoming a QB2 upgrade. The Bucs carried an obvious quarterback need following Brady’s second retirement, but the $35.1MM void-years bill kept the team out of the Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo markets. While the Bucs also considered Jacoby Brissett, he ended up with the Commanders for twice the money Mayfield scored. With the Bucs mandating a low-cost veteran, the former No. 1 overall pick has what likely profiles as a last chance to prove himself as a starter.

With the exception of rookie-contract players, Mayfield’s $4MM AAV is miles below every other Week 1 QB. The $4MM base value make it more in line with the backup tier, and many QB2 options — Brissett, Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinicke, Marcus Mariota, Jarrett Stidham — landed more than the player who was in talks with the Browns about a lucrative extension in 2021.

It is difficult to overstate the tumble Mayfield’s stock has taken since he was at the heart of the Browns snapping a 17-season playoff drought. A shoulder injury keyed a 2021 dip, but Mayfield did not bounce back in Carolina. Instead, his Panthers tenure ended with the team waiving him — as he sat dead last in QBR — despite having clawed back into the dreadful NFC South race. Illustrating how bad Mayfield was in Carolina, his memorable Los Angeles stay — which included the two-days-notice 98-yard game-winning drive to stun the Raiders — did not pull him out of last place. Mayfield played well against the Broncos on Christmas Day but still finished miles behind the second-worst signal-caller in 2022 QBR.

Bucs were willing to take what amounted to a flier on the 2017 Heisman winner, and instead of drafting another passer, they only pitted two-year third-stringer Kyle Trask against Mayfield. It took all three preseason games for Mayfield to beat out the 2021 second-rounder. Mayfield finished the 2020 season with 26 touchdown passes, eight interceptions and a 10th-place QBR finish. That represents his most recent healthy season, one that powered Kevin Stefanski to Coach of the Year honors and involved the Browns embarrassing the Steelers in Round 1 despite Stefanski home with COVID-19.

The Bucs will hope a stable Mayfield offseason leads to this form resurfacing, but while Tampa Bay may have that Cleveland team outflanked for receiver talent, an elite Browns O-line aided the 6-foot-1 QB that year. New Tampa Bay OC Dave Canales coaching under ex-Sean McVay assistant Shane Waldon in Seattle stands to help Mayfield, who is going into his age-28 season. But it will certainly not surprise to see Trask receive an extended look. Barring a Mayfield turnaround few expect, the Bucs look likely to enter the 2024 offseason with a dire QB need.

For the second time in four years, McLaughlin and Rodrigo Blankenship battled for a kicker job. After Blankenship beat out McLaughlin to succeed Adam Vinatieri in Indianapolis in 2020, the latter won the relocated rematch. While McLaughlin has enjoyed some extended work — in being a full-time option in Cleveland and Indianapolis over the past two years — the Bucs will be the 2019 UDFA’s seventh NFL team.

Both Feiler and Gaines served as multiyear starters in Los Angeles — Feiler at right guard for the Chargers, Gaines as a defensive tackle for the Rams — and their price tags aligned with the Bucs’ offseason itinerary. Purging more veterans than the Bucs did this year, the Rams let both Aaron Donald‘s recent wingmen — Gaines and A’Shawn Robinson — walk. Gaines, 27, started for the past two seasons and totaled 8.5 sacks and 19 QB hits in that span. With Calijah Kancey arriving in Round 1, it looks like Gaines will return to a bench role.

Feiler, 31, has been a starter for the past five seasons — for the Steelers and Bolts — and Pro Football Focus rated him as a top-20 guard in 2019 and ’21. The Bucs have the former UDFA at a discount because of a down 2022, when PFF slotted him outside the top 60 at the position. Given the Bucs’ rampant injury issues up front last season, Feiler offers short-term stability. He has missed just four games over the past four years. The Feiler addition will allow the Bucs to move 2022 second-rounder Luke Goedeke to right tackle, his primary college position.

Edmonds joins Mayfield in coming off a rough 2022. After his Cardinals work led to a two-year, $12MM Dolphins pact, Edmonds proved a poor fit in Mike McDaniel‘s offense. The Dolphins included the underwhelming satellite back as salary filler in the Bradley Chubb trade. The Broncos then cut him in March. In a bad year to be a free agent running back, Edmonds did score another opportunity and will slide in as the team’s passing-down back complementing Rachaad White. Edmonds, 27, did excel in a similar role alongside Kenyan Drake in 2020 but saw James Conner‘s re-emergence overshadow him the following year.

Re-signings:

"<strongIn Saints-like fashion, the Bucs managed to move from $55MM-plus over the cap upon Brady’s February 1 retirement to a place where they could make a viable offer to retain Dean. The Bucs followed their Carlton Davis blueprint with Dean. A year after they let Davis test free agency and then signed him to a three-year, $44.5MM deal, the Bucs reeled Dean back in early during the legal tampering period. Neither Davis nor Dean landed top-10 cornerback money, but both contract sit in the top 15 among AAV at the position.

Excelling in press coverage, Dean played a major role for the 2020 Super Bowl champion Bucs iteration and overtook Sean Murphy-Bunting last season. Dean did perform better in 2021 compared to 2022, allowing no touchdowns and limiting QBs to a collective 50.0 passer rating; those numbers shot up to four and 86.0 last season. But Dean also played more snaps last year, going from 685 in 2021 to 885. PFF rated Dean as last season’s 10th-best corner, and the former third-round pick will stay with the team that drafted him.

One of the best players in franchise history, David is back with the Bucs on a fourth contract. For a bit, it looked like the linebacker stalwart would leave Tampa after 11 seasons. David, 33, signed a lucrative five-year deal in 2015 and then, as the Bucs completed a historic talent-retention effort to retain the entire core of their Super Bowl LV-winning team, reupped on a two-year deal in 2021. This contract will bring a pay reduction for one of this era’s best off-ball linebackers, but as the Bucs transition to their post-Brady period, keeping David and Dean ensures continuity from their Super Bowl squad.

The former second-round pick totaled 124 tackles last season and has 10-plus TFLs in four of the past five seasons. David’s three sacks last season quietly ran his total to 29 over the course of his career. With Devin White generating criticism for inconsistency, the Bucs have continued to rely on David. The Nebraska product has seen his consistency pay off. After the Bucs ended a playoff drought that had covered David’s first eight seasons, he became a vital piece for two strong teams to start the 2020s.

Shaq Barrett‘s return from a midseason Achilles tear should move Nelson back to a rotational role — behind Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka — but the former fourth-round pick does have 10.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Barrett coming back will give the Bucs an interesting two-deep at outside linebacker, with third-rounder Yaya Diaby joining Nelson, who forced three fumbles last season as the Bucs attempted to get by without their top sack artist.

Notable losses:

Brady’s Bucs period added a key separation between he and Bill Belichick‘s legacies, and while the tenure did not necessarily end well, the QB icon reaching seven Super Bowl titles and ending a 12-year Tampa Bay playoff drought classifies the 2020 signing as an undisputed win for the franchise. Brady’s preposterously long prime lasted through the 2021 season, and although he showed flashes (in the form of some wild comebacks) as the 2022 Bucs broke down, the unretirement year brought clear decline signs. Brady used last season to fulfill his longtime goal of playing through age 45, and that feat allowed him to become the only regular QB to go through a season at that age.

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Offseason In Review: Seattle Seahawks

September 7th, 2023 at 9:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

Life after Russell Wilson began for the Seahawks in 2022, a season in which very little was expected of the team. Rather than setting upon a long-term organizational reset, however, Seattle remained competitive in large part due to the surprising success Geno Smith found in his latest opportunity to serve as an NFL starter. The veteran steered the team to a playoff berth, and the young contributors added in each of the past two drafts offer considerable reasons for optimism moving forward.

Weaknesses on defense were exposed throughout the season, though, and much of the team’s efforts in recent months (including a reunion with an icon from Seattle’s Super Bowl-winning core) has been aimed at addressing them. If they prove to have been successful, Smith – the reigning Comeback Player of the Year who has a new, more lucrative Seahawks deal in place – will be well-positioned to prove 2022’s success was not a fluke.

Free agency additions:

Seattle ranked 30th against the run in 2022, and breakdowns in the front seven were common during the regular season. That factored into the team’s postseason exit as well, as the 49ers recorded over 500 yards of offense in their wild-card victory over the Seahawks. Long before free agency began, it was therefore obvious that much of the offseason would need to be devoted to reconfiguring the defensive line and linebacking corps.

Jones will be at the heart of that effort, tasked with providing a much-needed boost with respect to interior pass-rushing production. The Seahawks finished tied for seventh in the league in sacks last year, but much of that came off the edge. If Jones can replicate his success from Denver, more balance will be attained. The 26-year-old totaled 22 sacks and 60 pressures across four years with the Broncos, making him one of the most attractive members of a deep D-line free agent class.

The Broncos were interested in retaining Jones, but for a time he seemed to be headed toward a deal with his hometown Browns. In the end, the former third-rounder landed a contract with a higher AAV than what both Denver and Cleveland gave to Zach Allen and Dalvin Tomlinson, respectively. The latter two are regarded as better run defenders than Jones, but if he remains productive on passing downs, he will be central to a rebound performance from Seattle’s defense.

Both Reed – who is returning to Seattle after spending his first five seasons there – and Edwards are in line for starting roles alongside Jones. That new trio will give the team a much different look in its second year with a 3-4 base scheme, although depth additions could be on the radar. In any event, the play of the revamped D-line will be a major storyline in 2023.

The Seahawks already had the league’s most expensive safety tandem in Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs before adding Love to the mix. The latter expressed a desire to remain with the Giants after his breakout season, though he was acutely aware of how his 2022 production helped his earning power. The 25-year-old will be able to hit the open market a second time rather quickly if he plays out this Seattle deal without an extension, though he could play his way into the team’s long-term plans if he picks up where he left off last season.

Love posted career-highs in a number of categories during the 2022 campaign, his first operating as a full-time starter. He remained a constant in a Giants secondary which faced injury absences for much of the year, seeing usage at a number of different spots on the field. The Notre Dame alum thus made himself one of several noteworthy safeties who were available in free agency, although a number of players with a longer track record at the position secured more lucrative deals.

Adams’ history of missed time – which will continue into the 2023 campaign – could make Love’s presence particularly important for Seattle. Plenty of playing time should be available when the Seahawks’ starting trio are all healthy, in any case, and Love will be a central figure in the team’s play on the backend.

Wagner’s fifth career contract is far smaller than all but his rookie pact, but it will be a valuable one on several fronts if he can maintain his level of play upon his return to the Emerald City. A central figure in the Legion of Boom-era defenses throughout a 10-year Seahawks run to begin his career, the eight-time Pro Bowler’s time with the team appeared to be over when he took a five-year, $50MM contract with the division rival Rams last offseason.

The 33-year-old drew the No. 1 PFF grade amongst inside linebackers in his debut Los Angeles season. After a calamitous title defense, however, the Rams elected to part ways with several high-priced veterans. Part of that process including granting Wagner’s release request, clearing the way for his return to Seattle, one which could result in up to $7MM in earnings. The six-time first-team All-Pro will reprise the starting role at the Seattle LB spot he has held for most of his career, and a continuation of his past performances would go a long way in stabilizing the Seahawks’ reconfigured front seven.

Bush could play a role in that regard as well, and success in a new environment would do wonders for his career. The former Steelers first-rounder flamed out in the seasons following his 2020 ACL tear, seeing his playing time drop sharply in each of the past two years. Bush, 25, will likely work in a rotational capacity behind Wagner and incumbent starter Jordyn Brooks, neither of whom are on the books for 2024. He could thus play his way into an extended stay in Seattle, or at least help his prospects in free agency next spring.

 Re-signings:

After the blockbuster deal sending Wilson to Denver, a QB competition which received little fanfare took place last summer. Many expected Lock, part of the package sent by the Broncos, to beat out Smith for the starting role. It was instead the latter who earned the No. 1 job, and he held it for every snap of the regular and postseason.

Six years removed from his last campaign as a full-time starter, Smith authored an incredibly unlikely success story in 2022. The 32-year-old led the league in completion percentage (69.8%), shattered his career high in touchdown passes (30) and finished in the top 10 of MVP voting. A considerable raise from the $3.5MM he saw in 2022 and the smaller figures represented in his previous one-year Seahawks pacts was in order.

On the other hand, Seattle was frequently named as a team to watch with respect to drafting a passer in April. Both head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider admitted to doing more QB scouting than usual while in the rare position of having a top-five pick (owing to the Broncos’ struggles in their first season with Wilson at the helm). A long-term answer at the position will still likely be coming sooner than later. But for at least one more year the Seahawks will maintain the Smith-Lock tandem.

Should Smith’s 2022 turn out to be fluky, the Seahawks will be able to escape this contract fairly easily in 2024. The team could move on via a post-June 1 cut in either of the next two offseasons and see notable cap savings against only an $8.7MM dead cap charge. Despite his success last year, Smith will therefore face another round of considerable expectations as he looks to back up his production and lead the Seahawks to consecutive postseason berths.

Lock’s deal can reach up to $7.5MM via incentives, something which would come into play if Smith were to miss time or regress. Either scenario could put his Seattle future in jeopardy, given the fact his contract only includes full guarantees for this season.

Myers proved to be a solid investment in 2019 after his stints with the Jaguars and Jets. He has gone a combined 98-for-112 on field goals during his time in Seattle (including 13-for-17 on kicks beyond 50 yards). The 32-year-old earned a second career Pro Bowl nod in 2022 and made the decision to authorize a re-up an easy one from the team’s perspective. Meyers now sits third in the league for AAV amongst kickers ($5.28MM) behind only Justin Tucker and Matt Gay, setting himself up to continue his consistent play with the Seahawks.

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Offseason In Review: Kansas City Chiefs

September 7th, 2023 at 9:50am CST by Sam Robinson

As partially chronicled on Netflix, the Chiefs secured their second Super Bowl championship in four seasons. Patrick Mahomes is now 3-for-5 in Super Bowl appearances as a starter and is the first quarterback since Otto Graham (1950-55) to begin an NFL career with five straight conference championship games. The two-time MVP gutted through a high ankle sprain to lift the Chiefs past the Jaguars, Bengals and Eagles.

Trading Tyreek Hill and letting Tyrann Mathieu walk in free agency, the Chiefs probably vanquished multiple playoff foes with better overall rosters. The Eagles certainly had such a claim. But Kansas City’s Mahomes-Andy Reid foundation has provided a historic advantage, compensating for roster issues elsewhere. The Chiefs have been fortunate regarding the availability of Mahomes’ top two co-stars. Travis Kelce and Chris Jones each suiting up for all 20 games obviously aided last year’s effort. There is a good chance neither will play in Week 1, giving the Mahomes-Reid partnership a new challenge to start its latest title defense.

Free agency additions:

A trade package centering around a first-round pick brought Orlando Brown Jr. to Kansas City in 2021. The Chiefs then franchise-tagged him last year. After not re-tagging Brown, the defending champions have made some changes regarding their tackle priority. They have taken care of the right tackle spot with Taylor and brought in a veteran placeholder in Smith, whom the Buccaneers released in March. This is a rather interesting setup, as the Reid years have either featured mid- or high-level investments in both tackle spots (Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz) or seen the RT position overlooked.

For a stretch immediately following Taylor’s signing, it appeared the plan would be to move the former Jaguars and Florida Gators right tackle to the blind side. The team changed course upon signing Smith in May. Taylor, 25, will now keep going on the right side.

The four-year Jags starter has never missed a game. While PFR rated Taylor third overall for free agent earning power, the Chiefs think highly of a player who needed to win a training camp battle — over Walker Little — to keep his RT job going into last season. Taylor’s contract-year work scored him a life-changing payday, and he will camp outside of Florida for the first time. The Jaguars decided on tagging Evan Engram, a cheaper option that led to an extension, over cuffing Taylor. Jacksonville already has a top-10 left tackle payment (for Cam Robinson) on its books. Taylor then joined Mike McGlinchey and Kaleb McGary in comprising a strong right tackle free agency class.

More of a pass pro-oriented right tackle compared to McGlinchey, Taylor boasts a skillset fitting Reid’s attack better. Pro Football Focus has long been skeptical of Taylor’s abilities, having not ranked him inside the top 60 among tackles since his rookie year, when the advanced metrics site slotted him 49th. However, the former second-round pick dropped his hold count from 11 in 2021 to two last season. And Football Outsiders charted Taylor as posting a career-low blown-block rate (1.3%).

This represents a risk from the Chiefs, who gave a player who was not exactly viewed as an upper-echelon right tackle for much of his rookie-contract run the second-most lucrative contract at the position. Taylor’s $20MM AAV trails only Lane Johnson‘s ($20.2MM). A significant accolade disparity exists between those two, but the Chiefs are betting the fifth-year blocker’s best football lies ahead. Taylor will join one of the NFL’s best O-line nuclei, which still features rookie-deal cogs Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith.

Older blockers now populate the left side of Kansas City’s line. Smith and left guard Joe Thuney are both 30. Smith also struggled during his final Bucs campaign, rating one spot behind Taylor (66th) in PFF’s view. His 12 penalties (including seven holds) ranked second in the NFL, and Todd Bowles considered benching the longtime left tackle last season. We slotted the Chiefs as the best Smith fit, and the ex-Tom Brady protector will be thrust into another high-profile spot. The second-longest-tenured left tackle in Bucs history, Smith signed three contracts with the team and has made 124 career starts.

A Missouri native who starred at Mizzou after Chase Daniel‘s exit from the then-Big 12 program, Gabbert is back in his home state after 12 seasons elsewhere. The Chiefs’ previous Mahomes backup, Chad Henne, once replaced Gabbert in Jacksonville in the early 2010s. That demotion — after being chosen 10th overall in 2011 — dropped Gabbert to the backup tier. Other than when he briefly unseated Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, Gabbert has remained a backup ever since the Jags’ decision.

Brady did not miss a start with the Bucs, keeping Gabbert on the bench. Gabbert did make some successful cameos under Bruce Arians with the 2017 Cardinals; his last starts came with the 2018 Titans. Mahomes displayed his toughness during the playoffs but has missed time in two of Kansas City’s past three divisional-round games. Mahomes also missed two games in 2019 with a knee injury. Henne and Matt Moore made memorable contributions to help Super Bowl-winning Chiefs squads. Reid pulling Moore out of retirement in 2019, after a season-ending Henne injury, and coaxing decent performances bodes well for Gabbert’s potential form should Mahomes go down.

The Reid-era Chiefs have not shown much concern for adding players deemed character risks. One of those gambles (Hill) will be in the Hall of Fame one day; another (Frank Clark) made vital postseason contributions. This has created some controversy, but the Chiefs have also generated some positive results from this old-school strategy. The Chiefs, who also gave ex-first-round cornerbacks DeAndre Baker and Damon Arnette second chances after off-field issues led to early exits elsewhere, will bet on Omenihu. The former Nick Bosa supporting-caster was arrested on a domestic violence charge in January. He already received a six-game suspension.

Omenihu, 26, showed promising form for a 49ers team that frequently enhances defensive ends’ capabilities, posting the 12th-best pass rush win rate — among D-ends — in 2021 and totaling 4.5 sacks and 16 QB hits last year. With the Chiefs cutting Clark and depending on two recent first-rounders (George Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah) on the edge, Omenihu stands to become an important piece. This suspension threatens to void the fifth-year pass rusher’s guarantees; it will also place pressure on the two young DEs as Jones remains on the reserve/did not report list.

Even with the off-ball linebacker market featuring few major paydays this offseason, Tranquill’s low-cost pact surprised. The former fourth-round pick out of Notre Dame was one of the NFL’s most productive linebackers last season, pairing 146 tackles with five sacks, four pass deflections and a forced fumble. The Chargers let the Gus Bradley-era investment Tranquill walk and gave Eric Kendricks a two-year, $13.25MM deal. Reid reaching out to Tranquill, 28, helped seal the deal for the fifth-year linebacker to join Nick Bolton and Willie Gay on Kansas City’s defensive second level.

Re-signings:

Although McKinnon has not seen a contract close to the one the 49ers gave him in 2018, he has been an undeniable success story in a bleak period for the position. The Chiefs have now given McKinnon three one-year contracts, and it is interesting this one did not require much of a raise from 2022. Then again, the market was unkind to most backs this year.

McKinnon became a valuable piece for the Chiefs, setting a post-merger NFL running back record by catching a touchdown pass in six straight games. McKinnon’s nine receiving TDs broke a Chiefs single-season RB standard as well, and his 10 total TDs marked a career high for the one-time Adrian Peterson Vikings successor.

Whiffing on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a first-rounder who was supposed to become a dynamic aerial option for Mahomes, the Chiefs have both rectified the situation with McKinnon and dealt another blow to RB value in doing so. While most teams cannot get away with giving the keys to a seventh-round pick (Isiah Pacheco) and a 31-year-old back on veteran-minimum money, Mahomes’ presence affords the Chiefs luxuries. This low-cost duo comprising the Chiefs’ playoff backfield undoubtedly affected teams’ thinking at the position this offseason.

McKinnon, who missed two full 49ers seasons after signing a four-year deal worth $28MM, played in every Chiefs game last season. The ex-Vikings draftee has made his most valuable contributions in his NFL twilight years.

Notable losses:

The Chiefs had wanted to retain Brown, but they passed on tagging him a second time (at a cost of $19.9MM). If Donovan Smith proves a significant downgrade at the O-line’s glamour position, not re-tagging Brown — a move believed to be in play for a bit — will look like a questionable strategy. Then again, a Brown tag would have almost definitely prevented the Taylor signing. Brown made his way to Cincinnati, and while the overall contract number did not match what the Chiefs proposed before the July 2022 tag extension deadline, the sixth-year blocker still made out well.

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Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

September 6th, 2023 at 10:24pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Colts’ stunning 2021 season-ender in Jacksonville seems does not exactly seem like it occurred 20 months ago. So much has changed since. Although the batch of Pro Bowlers (minus one well-documented exception) from that talented team remains ahead of the 2023 season, they have observed a chaotic overhaul in the time since that crushing Jaguars loss. The Quenton Nelson-, DeForest Buckner– and Kenny Moore-fronted cast are now part of a rebuilding team, with a new coaching staff and another new quarterback in place.

While multiple All-Pros remain on Indianapolis’ roster, last year’s second-half trainwreck highlighted Jim Irsay‘s increasingly prominent role in this franchise’s fortunes. From quarterback directives to a historically bizarre coaching development, the owner has involved himself significantly since the Jacksonville upset. The Jonathan Taylor saga brought Irsay’s meddling to a crisis point, and it has overshadowed the other Colts developments entering the season.

Free agency additions:

Other unstable roster and staff components have dwarfed the Colts’ kicker trouble, but the team did not skimp when it came to addressing this troublesome area. Two tours of Chase McLaughlin — as the Adam Vinatieri emergency successor in 2019 and Rodrigo Blankenship‘s replacement last year — did not move Chris Ballard to retain him. Instead, the seventh-year GM authorized the NFL’s second-most lucrative kicker contract to bring over Gay from Los Angeles.

The small gap between Gay and Justin Tucker‘s AAVs ($5.6MM, $6MM) point to the latter being undervalued, but Gay enjoyed the opportunity to hit free agency. As the Rams retooled around league-minimum specialty contracts, Gay will leave one favorable kicker environment for another.

Gay only served as the Rams’ full-time kicker from 2021-22, catching on midway through the 2020 season. But he drilled at least 93% of his field goal tries in each of the past two seasons. This included an 11-for-14 make rate from 50-plus yards. The Colts once fixed their swiftly developing kicker unreliability by replacing Mike Vanderjagt with Vinatieri during the 2006 free agency period. Gay, 29, will be tasked with stopping a revolving door post-Vinatieri.

From a pass-rushing standpoint, Ebukam is a clear downgrade from Yannick Ngakoue. One of the 2021 Colts’ flaws came from the team not sufficiently replacing Justin Houston, leaving Kwity Paye too great a task as a rookie. Paye took a step forward last season, upping his sack (six) and tackle-for-loss totals (10) from his rookie season despite missing five games. The 2021 first-round pick now slides back into the top edge-rushing role for the Colts, with Ebukam a Nick Bosa sidekick for the past two seasons.

Ebukam, 28, has bettered Paye’s QB-hit totals in each of the past two years, combining for 24 as a 49er, but he has never topped five sacks in any of his six seasons — despite playing with Bosa and Aaron Donald throughout that span. A modest statistical resume aside, Ebukam’s 49ers work generated a better market compared to his 2021 post-Rams free agency foray. Among free agent edges, only the Titans’ Arden Key pickup required more guaranteed money ($13MM). Ebukam’s guarantee figure beat out Ngakoue, ex-teammates Leonard Floyd and Charles Omenihu, along with Marcus Davenport and Frank Clark.

The Colts finished with 44 sacks last season; Ngakoue’s 9.5 helped Gus Bradley‘s defense rank in the top half in scoring during a 4-12-1 season. During the year in between Houston and Ngakoue, the Colts totaled 33 sacks. Ballard has come through with many impact starters in the second round of the draft, but he has missed on a few pass rushers. Kemoko Turay, Ben Banogu and Tyquan Lewis have not panned out. The team has a bad track record with this precise investment, with Dayo Odeyingbo (Round 2, 2021) tasked with turning it around. Odeyingbo figures to see more opportunities post-Ngakoue; the Purdue product totaled five sacks and 11 QB hits in his first full season. Martin and perhaps Muhammad, who tallied a career-high six sacks in 2021, will be tasked with aiding a Buckner-reliant pass rush.

Had the Colts carried contender aspirations into this season, they would probably have aimed higher than Minshew. Rather than a bridge option, Minshew has become Anthony Richardson‘s backup. Minshew operating as the bridge to Richardson crumbled quickly, and the former Jaguars and Eagles passer will start another season on the bench.

Shane Steichen coached Minshew for two seasons in Philadelphia, making for an ideal backup — even if Richardson and Minshew’s skillsets are not comparable. Nevertheless, Minshew backed up Jalen Hurts for two seasons and served as a Jaguars regular starter during the previous two. The former sixth-round pick has bucked the odds by making 24 career starts. While he is 8-16 in those games, several of the starts came for a terrible 2020 Jaguars team and one more came in a game featuring Eagles backups and Cowboys starters. Minshew carries a 44-to-15 TD-to-INT ratio into his fifth season and presents a higher floor compared to Richardson as a passer. Though, if the most polished of the Colts’ passers makes any starts this season, something has gone wrong.

Re-signings:

Speed’s re-signing comes a year after the Colts retained Zaire Franklin. With Leonard attached to the second-highest off-ball linebacker salary, the Colts have let both Bobby Okereke and Anthony Walker walk. But Speed and Franklin are still around on lower-middle-class accords. A fifth-round pick out of Division II Tarleton State, Speed worked mostly as a special-teamer from 2019-21 but served as a five-game starter last season. His seven tackles for loss revealed promise, and Okereke’s exit opens the door for more defensive reps alongside Leonard and Franklin.

Leonard battled three injuries last year and underwent two back surgeries in 2022, the second of which ending his abbreviated season early. One of this century’s most productive off-ball ‘backers, Leonard was limited to just three games last year. After playing through that back issue en route to a third first-team All-Pro honor in 2021, Leonard ran into a midcareer crossroads of sorts. He also missed 2022 time due to a concussion and a nose injury. The Colts are not out of the woods yet with Leonard health trouble. The sixth-year veteran suffered a concussion during a joint practice with the Bears, leaving him in the protocol days before Week 1.

Taylor’s placement on the Colts’ reserve/PUP list opens the door for Jackson and others to complement Richardson in the run game. Zack Moss is uncertain to open the season as well, having suffered a broken arm during training camp. Moss is not on IR, however, pointing to a September re-emergence from the 2022 trade acquisition. A former UDFA, Jackson started two games in relief of Taylor last year but finished his season with a 3.5-yard rushing average.

The Colts, who brought in Kareem Hunt last month but did not sign him, signed and then quickly released Kenyan Drake. As it stands now, Jackson and fifth-round rookie Evan Hull represent Indy’s healthy RB options. Going into his fifth season with the Colts, Dulin will not play in 2023. An ACL tear sidelined the veteran backup wide receiver in August.

Notable losses:

For a few days in March 2022, the Colts carried neither a starter-caliber quarterback nor a first-round pick. Irsay demanded Ballard trade Wentz, despite the Colts having given up first- and third-round picks for him in 2021, and the owner was believed to have ordered his GM to finalize the Ryan trade. The Colts’ combined tally for Wentz and Ryan: a first-round pick and two third-rounders for two thirds. While Wentz became a punching bag for Irsay and others, he fared far better than Ryan in Indianapolis. Now with CBS, Ryan appeared at the end of the line in Indy.

The Colts had planned to stop their QB carousel for a bit with Ryan, whom Ballard wanted to start for at least two seasons. Two years remained on Ryan’s Falcons-constructed contract — one the Colts reworked upon acquiring him — but it quickly became apparent the former MVP would not be even a temporary answer in Indianapolis. As the Colts’ O-line struggled to reach its expected form, Ryan took 38 sacks in 12 games and fumbled a career-high 15 times. Irsay again stepped in, instructing Reich to bench Ryan for the unseasoned Sam Ehlinger. Reich reluctantly did so, while believing Ehlinger was unready. After Irsay fired Reich, he gave the OK for interim HC Jeff Saturday to reinstall Ryan as the starter.

In order to avoid injury guarantees ramping up their Ryan dead money by an additional $7.2MM, the Colts benched him again — for Nick Foles — for Week 16. While that was probably Ryan’s final act as an NFL player, Foles appeared a shell of his Eagles version when called upon. Averaging only 5.3 yards per attempt, Foles finished with no touchdown passes and four interceptions. After the former Super Bowl MVP inked a two-year, $6.2MM deal with the Colts, no team has signed the 11-year vet.

Ngakoue is not on a Hall of Fame track and has been viewed as a run-game liability, helping explain him being on team No. 6. But the longtime Bradley pupil continued his impressive streak in Indianapolis. Last season marked Ngakoue’s seventh straight year with at least eight sacks; no NFLer is riding such a streak. The Colts let it be known early in the offseason they were not re-signing Ngakoue, despite retaining Bradley, and he ended up with the Bears on a one-year, $10.5MM contract.

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Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

September 4th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

After expressing quick regret on his initial hire as Panthers owner, David Tepper reversed course and prioritized NFL experience. Carolina bailed midway through Year 3 on Matt Rhule‘s seven-year contract, and despite Steve Wilks‘ admirable job moving the team back into the mix for a division title (albeit in a historically bad NFC South), Frank Reich became the pick.

That move sets the tone for Carolina’s mid-2020s, but the decision Reich, Tepper and GM Scott Fitterer made barely a month later should have a longer-term impact. After a quarterback carousel spun in Charlotte for several seasons, the team did its best to address one of the NFL’s most glaring needs.

Trades:

  • Sent Bears WR D.J. Moore, Nos. 9 and 61, along with 2024 first-, 2025 second-round pick for No. 1 overall pick

Cam Newton‘s MVP 2015 season turned out to be an aberration; the talented dual-threat option gradually trended down in the years following Carolina’s Super Bowl 50 loss. Toward the end of that late-2010s period, Newton began to break down. Shoulder and foot injuries led to the Panthers cutting bait on his 2015 extension in 2020, but the three-year, $63MM Teddy Bridgewater contract became one of a few stopgap measures that destabilized the team.

Rhule traded Bridgewater in 2021, and the Panthers offered a top-10 pick and their 2020 QB1 for Matthew Stafford in 2021. The Panthers believed they had secured a Stafford trade that winter (though, the then-Lions QB was not too keen on such a move), but the Rams swooping in led to a subsequent trade for Sam Darnold. An injury-plagued Darnold year keyed the Rhule-directed Baker Mayfield push. The Mayfield move only came about after Tepper’s two-offseason pursuit of Deshaun Watson failed. Watson was not big on the Panthers, and they joined the Falcons and Saints in balking at matching the Browns’ fully guaranteed extension offer. Since Newton’s 2018 shoulder injury shut him down, the Panthers have started seven QBs.

This offseason did not turn into a Bryce Young-centric effort immediately. The Panthers pursued Derek Carr, meeting with the nine-year Raiders passer at the Combine — shortly after Carr wielded his no-trade clause to finalize a release. And they were still in those sweepstakes days before going in another direction. But the team shied away from Carr’s $35MM-per-year asking price, clearing the way for the Saints to meet it.

Initially, the Bears were looking at moving from No. 1 to No. 2 to No. 9 — a complex trade that would have given the Texans the top pick and the Panthers the second overall choice. But Houston drifted out of the picture, leading to direct Chicago-Carolina negotiations. Bears GM Ryan Poles asked about Brian Burns and Derrick Brown, but after Fitterer kept the young front-seven pieces out of the trade, Chicago insisted Moore be part of the package. Despite Moore anchoring the Panthers’ receiving corps for most of his five-year Charlotte run, that did not prove a dealbreaker. The Panthers had extended Moore — on a three-year, $61.8MM deal — in March 2022; that contract is now on the Bears’ payroll.

The Panthers needed to include Moore to separate themselves from the other suitors for the pick, making the reluctant decision despite previously turning down a first-rounder (in different trade talks) for their No. 1 wide receiver. Moore, 26, joins Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad as the only three-time 1,100-yard receivers in franchise history. Smith and Muhammad enjoyed better QB stability than Moore, who did not begin his 1,100-yard string until Kyle Allen took over for Newton in 2019.

Carolina also preferred to retain the higher of its two 2023 second-round picks. Rather than move their own choice (No. 38), the Panthers gave the Bears the pick obtained in the Christian McCaffrey deal (No. 61) and a 2025 second. It can be argued the Panthers overprotected their own 2023 second-rounder (which became wideout Jonathan Mingo), keeping it and instead trading No. 61 and a 2025 second.

Regardless of how they stuck the landing, the Panthers made a true QB commitment for the first time since extending Newton in 2015. As a result, Young and Justin Fields‘ careers will be tied together for a while. With Poles and Fitterer boldly completing this trade before free agency, the Panthers carried more certainty going into the market compared to the Bears, who had traded a No. 1 overall pick earlier in an offseason than anyone since the draft moved to April in 1976. It did not take too long before the Panthers’ Young preference circulated.

Free agency additions:

The Moore trade keyed a receiver reboot in Carolina. After Moore and the then-Robbie Anderson began the past three seasons as the Panthers’ top wideouts, both ended up in trades. The team’s ensuing plan injects more risk into the equation, with Thielen going into his age-33 season and Chark missing sizable chunks of the past two slates due to injuries.

Parting with a number of core contributors to improve their cap situation, the Vikings ditched Thielen after 10 years. The Division II product-turned-rookie-camp body made a stunning ascent to join Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Anthony Carter near the top of all-time Vikings receiving lists, and the Minnesota native enjoyed a market upon being cut. The Broncos and Cowboys were among the teams to pursue Thielen, but the 11th-year pass catcher signed with the Panthers after a visit. The Panthers provided a quality parachute for Thielen, who collected nearly as much guaranteed money as top 2023 receiver UFAs Jakobi Meyers and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($16MM apiece) despite being seven years older than both.

Thielen, whose 30 touchdown receptions since 2020 trail only Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. Granted, Thielen benefited extensively from Justin Jefferson‘s meteoric rise. But the veteran possession receiver should still aid Young as he acclimates to the NFL. This is a true multiyear commitment. In a non-post-June 1 capacity, cutting Thielen would not save the Panthers any money in 2024. Reich and Co. are betting on two solid years from Thielen.

The Lions attempted to re-sign Chark, but he will be part of a third team in three years. The ex-Jaguars second-rounder posted a 1,000-yard season with Gardner Minshew primarily at the controls (2019) and did some field-stretching work for the Lions when available last year. But Chark missed 13 games because of a fractured ankle in 2021 and saw more ankle trouble lead him to IR last season. Chark still averaged 16.7 yards per reception in his Lions one-off — the second-highest total of his career — but the $5MM contract reflects teams’ hesitancy on the injury front. Chark underwent another ankle surgery this offseason; this second “prove it” deal will be pivotal for the LSU alum’s earning power.

Both Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz received the franchise tag last season and have been superior receivers to Hurst during their careers. Hurst, 30, is also two years older than Gesicki and three years older than Schultz. The Panthers nevertheless made another true multiyear commitment. Hurst has one career 500-yard receiving season — a 571-yard showing with the 2020 Falcons — and is coming off a 414-yard slate in Cincinnati. PFF also rated Schultz as a far superior run blocker last season. With the Bengals and Falcons over the past two seasons, Hurst did not exceed nine yards per reception.

The Panthers have not effectively replaced Greg Olsen since his foot trouble keyed a late-2010s decline. They will be making an interesting bet on Hurst doing so, but he and Thielen represent pivotal parts of Young’s first NFL attack.

As you may have heard, the NFL collectively updated its view of running backs. On that note, Sanders was fairly fortunate to land the deal he did. The four-year Eagles starter collected the most guaranteed money of any RB this offseason, though his AAV checked in south of James Conner and Leonard Fournette‘s 2022 pacts. Although Sanders will reunite with ex-Eagles RBs coach Duce Staley, who helped steer him to the Panthers, he is going from perhaps the NFL’s best offensive line to a middling unit. Saquon Barkley‘s Penn State successor is coming off a career-best (by a wide margin) 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. He also has not totaled more than 200 receiving yards in a season since 2019. But there should be some pass-catching upside for the Panthers to explore.

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Offseason In Review: New York Jets

September 4th, 2023 at 9:59pm CST by Ben Levine

As aggressive New York Jets offseason saw the organization accelerate its timeline to 2023. While the 2022 iteration of the team had some warts, the Jets also showed significant progress during Robert Saleh‘s second season at the helm. The Jets had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, and with other promising young players up and down the roster, the Jets pushed their chips to the middle of the table.

After having received some of the worst QB play in the league during the 2022 campaign, the team made it a mission to improve the position in 2023. Gang Green improved it in a big way, acquiring a future Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers. The four-time MVP immediately adds credibility to an organization that’s desperate for respect, and it firmly puts the Jets on the playoff (if not Super Bowl) radar.

The Jets capitalized on their inexpensive core players by not only acquiring Rodgers. The team also brought in a number of championship-hungry veterans, including a number of Rodgers’ former Green Bay teammates. These transactions should be enough to guide the Jets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, but will it be enough to push them to the promised land?

Trades:

At one point, Zach Wilson was the crown jewel of the Jets’ rebuild. With GM Joe Douglas having loaded up on draft picks, Wilson was going to be the leader of an organically built squad. In natural Jets fashion, the BYU product failed to live up to expectations, leading the front office to look elsewhere at the position this offseason.

While the recent NFL team-building strategy has focused on spending around a rookie-contract QB, the Jets were in the unique position of having top-end rookie-level contracts elsewhere on the roster. Instead of restarting at the position via the draft, Douglas and Co. were motivated to compete now, and that was reflected in their rumored interest in many of the league’s available veteran quarterbacks.

The Jets briefly flirted with Derek Carr before focusing their attention to the biggest name on the market: Aaron Rodgers. The Packers legend was clearly done in Green Bay and was considering his options, which included retirement. While Rodgers was still under contract with the Packers, he treated his decision like a pseudo-free agency, and he eventually declared his intention to play for the Jets.

After a month of negotiations, the veteran was traded to New York in a deal that ultimately netted Green Bay an improved 2023 first-round selection, a 2023 second-rounder and, in all likelihood, a 2024 first. Rodgers only needs to play 65% of the Jets’ 2023 offensive snaps for the Packers to collect a 2024 first. Suffice to say, the Packers did far better for Rodgers than they did when they sent Brett Favre to the Jets 15 years ago. That deal only ended up bringing the Pack a third-rounder.

Rodgers had one of his weakest seasons in 2022, putting together one of his lowest TD% (4.8) and one of his highest INT rates (2.2%) while finishing with the third losing record in his career (8-9). Of course, this would still be a massive improvement for the Jets’ offense, and Rodgers is only a year removed from back-to-back MVPs. Even if you no longer consider Rodgers one of the top QBs in the league, it appears he has enough in the tank for his age-40 season.

The Jets weren’t done wheeling and dealing, with the front office moving on from a pair of former second-round WRs. Elijah Moore took a step back during his second season in the NFL, finishing with 446 receiving yards (vs. 538 as a rook) and one score (vs. five touchdowns). With the Jets adding a number of receivers to the roster (which we’ll get to below), Moore’s role with the organization was even more uncertain.

The team ended up finding a taker, sending Moore to Cleveland. Moore had requested a trade last season, and while the Jets refused to move him at that point, they were more open to doing so with Rodgers and new wideouts onboard.

Mims was drafted a year before Moore but showed less through his three seasons in the NFL, hauling in a total 42 receptions for 676 yards. He was traded to the Lions for a conditional late-round pick. Detroit has since cut the wideout.

The Jets acquired Chuck Clark with the hope he’d play an important role on their secondary. The veteran only missed one start for the Ravens over the past three seasons, averaging around 92 tackles per season. Unfortunately, the March acquisition tore his ACL in June, ending his season before it even began. Clark’s injury ultimately led to the team’s signing of safety Adrian Amos.

Extensions and restructures:

Rodgers was attached to an untenable $107.5MM bill for the 2024 season, so the Jets made sure to adjust his contract upon completion of their trade with the Packers. The team ended up locking Rodgers into a two-year deal with $75MM guaranteed, a significant drop from the $100MM guaranteed he was set to see over the next two seasons. The contract also includes a nonguaranteed $37.5MM bill for 2025.

Despite indicating he was 90% retired earlier this year, Rodgers has stated a desire to continue playing beyond the 2023 season. His extension certainly increases the chances that he’ll be under center for the 2024 campaign (and without the hefty charge he was set to have under his ripped-up pact).

Elsewhere, the Jets are counting on Quinnen Williams to continue his rapid rise. After collecting 13 sacks between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the defensive tackle showed off his top-three-pick pedigree in 2022, finishing with 12 sacks and 28 QB hits en route to a first-team All-Pro nod. The Jets rewarded the breakthrough season. Williams’ new deal ultimately slid in ahead of the other 2019 D-tackle draftees who had signed lucrative offseason deals. Both Williams and the Titans’ Jeffery Simmons secured more guaranteed money than Aaron Donald.

Carl Lawson helped the Jets carve out some extra space by reworking his expiring contract. The veteran agreed to a new deal partially tied to incentives. Lawson started all 17 games during his first season with the Jets and is expected to be a key defensive lineman in 2023. The Rodgers, Williams and Lawson agreements created significant cap space for the Jets.

Free agency additions:

Rodgers made sure he did not come to New York alone. Before the Jets even finalized their latest QB trade with the Packers, the team added one of Rodgers’ preferred Green Bay options in Allen Lazard. After averaging 36 catches for 480 yards through the 2019 and 2021 seasons, Lazard became one of Rodgers’ favorite targets in 2022, hauling in 60 receptions for 788 yards and six touchdowns. Pro Football Focus has also graded Lazard as one of the league’s top blocking WRs in recent years, making him a dependable option even if he’s not the focal point of the offense.

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Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

September 3rd, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Even after back-to-back 12-5 seasons, Mike McCarthy faces pressure going into his fourth year as Cowboys HC. The former Packers leader’s second-chance tenure has proven successful; he is the first Cowboys coach to guide the team to back-to-back playoff berths since Chan Gailey (1998-99). McCarthy will assume greater ownership of the team in Year 4 as well, taking over the play-calling reins after a split with OC Kellen Moore.

The Cowboys’ modest run of 21st-century postseason accomplishments is well known, turning up some heat on this rather popular team’s latest sideline boss. But Dallas’ latest roster does not present many weaknesses. The team addressed deficiencies via trades for accomplished veterans and is poised to enter this season healthier than it did in 2022. With the NFC again looking like the weaker conference (potentially by a wide margin), there are not many teams that outflank the Cowboys. That raises the stakes for McCarthy’s team to put it together in January.

Extensions and restructures:

Joining Chris Jones in testing his team with a holdout, Martin incurred more than $1MM in nonwaivable fines (the 49ers’ Nick Bosa holdout differs, as teams can still waive fines for rookie-contract players). But the future Hall of Fame guard made the absence worthwhile. The Cowboys caved, and Martin cashed in despite two seasons having remained on his contract.

The Cowboys’ preference for five- or six-year extensions has led to a number of stalwarts playing out their primes and seeing peers elsewhere sign shorter-term contracts, allowing for a potential second big payday, and ultimately come out better. Dallas’ penchant for lengthy extensions reminds of how contracts were structured in previous eras, and coming into this year, only Dak Prescott earned a notable victory (via his four-year, $160MM extension) over management on this front.

Martin entered the offseason tied to a six-year, $84MM deal. Agreed to in 2018, Martin’s contract set a guard record at the time. Given how NFL business works, lesser guards passed Martin. Chris Lindstrom, who does not have an All-Pro nod on his resume, joined Quenton Nelson in the $20MM-AAV guard club. This may or may not have been the last straw for Martin, who had fallen to the ninth-highest-paid guard following the Lindstrom pact.

Dallas’ 32-year-old O-line anchor did not skip minicamp but expressed disappointment in his contract before training camp and followed through on a rare holdout. The 2020 CBA deterred holdouts over its first three years, preventing teams from waiving fines for veterans who miss camp without excused absences. Although Jerry Jones‘ comments suggested a hardline stance, Martin ended up with an $8MM raise over two years and walked away with those final two seasons fully guaranteed. Martin had played out the guarantees on his previous deal.

For the All-Decade blocker to secure this package pointed to the value he brings the team. With Tyron Smith perennially injured and Travis Frederick retiring years ago, Martin represents the last link to the Tony Romo-era O-line core. Still in his prime protecting Prescott, the right guard struck a rare blow against the Cowboys’ contract M.O.

The Cowboys came into camp prioritizing younger players’ contracts over Martin’s, with Diggs being one of the central priorities. Known for his aggressiveness, the former second-round pick produced a historic 2021 season (11 INTs — territory no one had reached since Everson Walls got there as a Cowboys rookie in 1981) that ended with first-team All-Pro acclaim. Diggs’ passer rating against and completion percentage allowed figures skyrocketed in 2022, however. Citing the corner’s yards yielded in coverage, Pro Football Focus has yet to rank Diggs as a top-40 player at the position. The Cowboys are convinced in Diggs, for the foreseeable future at least, giving the former second-round pick an upper-crust extension.

Like Amari Cooper‘s 2020 contract, the Diggs deal has a clear out after two years. The Cowboys would be hit with just $4MM in dead money by designating Diggs as a post-June 1 cut in 2025 or trading him after that date. The team certainly will hope for a better outcome on this accord, but it is fairly protected in the event Diggs’ gambling habit catches up to him on this big-ticket accord. The player the Cowboys drafted to replace Byron Jones ended up cashing in on the type of extension neither Jones nor former top-10 pick Morris Claiborne could score with the team.

Hooker’s extension gives the Cowboys three safeties signed in the $5-$7MM-per-year range, completing an interesting middle-class-veteran-based plan at a position the team struggled to staff for years. Joining Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson in a formidable three-safety set including a former sixth-round pick and two outside hires, Hooker is now on his third Cowboys contract. The former Colts first-rounder has gone from earning $920K per year in his first Cowboys season (2021) to a $3.5MM AAV (2022) to this deal. Hooker has shaken off the injury issues that plagued him in Indianapolis, missing only three games as a Cowboy, and, at 27, is squarely in his prime.

Although dozens of restructures took place this offseason, few carried greater ramifications than Prescott’s. The Cowboys saved plenty by moving money around on their top contract, but it arms the veteran quarterback with plenty of leverage once again. Prescott scored his monster extension, after three offseasons of negotiations, because of the trouble a second franchise tag would have caused for the Cowboys in 2021. Dak’s latest restructure spikes his 2024 cap number to $59.5MM. That is an untenable figure for the Cowboys, considering no one has ever played a season with a cap number higher than $45MM.

The Cowboys cannot tag Prescott in 2025, due to the whopping figure that could come about because of the two tags used previously (the second being for procedural purposes to prevent a 2025 tag), and the void years they tacked onto the deal would result in a $36.4MM dead-money hit were Dak to walk as a 2025 free agent. Although Prescott struggled for stretches last season, he is equipped for a bounce-back year — one that should vault him into the newly created $50MM-per-year salary club. Few players are in more advantageous financial situations.

Smith has finally reached the end of the NFL’s longest-running active contract. The All-Decade tackle did not exactly do poorly for earnings in his career, but signing an eight-year, $97.6MM extension in 2014 walled off his path to a lucrative third contract. Smith, who came into the league at 20, is still just 32. Had Smith signed even a five-year deal when first eligible, he would have been positioned to score another one more in line with the market changes (the cap rested at $133MM in 2014; it hit $224.8MM this year). Being attached to a $12.2MM-per-year extension, Smith would have been the NFL’s 27th-highest-paid tackle this year. The likely Hall of Famer’s injuries (45 missed games since 2016) led to the Cowboys effectively mandating a pay cut, but he will still beat the odds and finish out this contract.

Trades:

The Cowboys’ public courtship of Odell Beckham Jr. produced nothing, as the former star ended up sitting out the 2022 season altogether. Prior to the Beckham push, however, the Cowboys discussed Cooks with the Texans. At that point, Houston was believed to want a second-round pick (Cooks’ cost back in 2020, when the Texans acquired him from the Rams). Dallas did not bite, and months later, it did not take anything on that level to pry the veteran away from the rebuilding team. While the Cowboys inquired on Jerry Jeudy and Adam Thielen, Cooks became their pick to upgrade the receiving corps.

Michael Gallup did not deliver plus WR2 work last season, and the Cowboys missed Cooper alongside CeeDee Lamb. With Gallup nearly two years removed from his ACL tear, Cooks gives the team another nice three-WR set. Joining Brandon Marshall in accumulating 1,000-yard receiving seasons for four different teams, Cooks saw his numbers dip last season. He served as less of a deep threat in Houston, seeing his average depth of target drop under 11 in each of the past two seasons. Going into his age-30 season, Cooks should still have something left. Will the veteran speedster be able to threaten defenses deep consistently with a better quarterback?

Dallas restructured Cooks’ contract, dropping his cap hit to $6MM this season through the use of void years. Should the 10th-year wide receiver be a post-prime commodity, the team can escape this contract — originally a two-year, $39MM Texans extension — for just $2MM in dead money in 2024 (as a post-June 1 cut). Considering the 2022 Cowboys only featured one 600-yard receiver — in a year in which they cycled through some options, including in-season addition T.Y. Hilton — sending the Texans two late-round picks for one of the league’s steadiest options was a move worth making.

Another move to indicate how the Cowboys view their championship window occurred just before the Cooks strike. Dallas will complement Diggs with Gilmore, giving the defense five players who have received first- or second-team All-Pro acclaim (along with Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch). After an abbreviated 2021 season that involved a contract dispute and an eventual trade out of New England, the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year showed he still had gas in the tank in Indianapolis. The Colts’ coaching and QB performance obscured their other players’ work, and Gilmore graded as PFF’s No. 9 overall corner. Gilmore’s passer rating-against and completion percentage allowed numbers came in much better, despite the Colts’ struggles, than his 2021 output.

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Offseason In Review: New England Patriots

September 1st, 2023 at 9:32pm CST by Ben Levine

The 2022 season saw the Patriots fail to make the playoffs for the second time in the post-Tom Brady era. While the players deserve their fair share of blame for the team’s lack of success, New England’s struggles could mostly be attributed to the sideline.

With Josh McDaniels having left for Las Vegas, Bill Belichick made the bold decision to replace his offensive coordinator with a former defensive coordinator in Matt Patricia and a former special teams coordinator in Joe Judge. Predictably, the results were less than stellar, and the team’s lack of offensive cohesion played a big role in quarterback Mac Jones‘ sophomore slump.

So, while fans may have been clamoring for a big-name acquisition, the organization’s biggest offseason move was bringing in former OC Bill O’Brien to help guide the offense. Will the coaching change help improve the Patriots’ postseason chances? It won’t hurt, but it remains to be seen if New England has enough firepower on their roster to keep up with the other three teams in the AFC East.

Extensions and restructures:

The Patriots’ most notable extension of the offseason came during training camp, when they ended Matt Judon‘s hold-in by giving him a pay bump for the 2023 campaign. The veteran edge has transformed into one of the team’s most important players since he came over from Baltimore before the 2021 campaign, compiling 28 sacks over the past two years.

However, Judon has also struggled to finish each of those seasons on a strong note, which could explain why the front office opted to give him more money right now vs. tacking on additional years at the back end of his contract. While Judon’s reworked deal temporarily solves any contract tension, there’s a good chance he’ll be seeking some long-term security next offseason.

DeVante Parker‘s first season in New England left plenty to be desired, although there’s not a whole lot a receiver can do if the quarterback can’t get him the ball. The veteran wideout did show some signs of promise though, setting career-highs in catch percentage (66 percent) and yards-per-target (11.5), and his 17.4 yards per reception was his highest mark since his rookie campaign. The Patriots have a relatively deep receivers room and it’s uncertain how Parker fits into that grouping, but the front office gave him a vote of confidence by reworking his deal.

Belichick and Co. have always taken pride in their diamonds in the rough, so it was not a big surprise when the team was proactive in extending Ja’Whaun Bentley. The former fifth-round pick has topped 100 tackles in each of the past two seasons, and the Patriots will be counting on him to take on an even larger role on defense in the coming years.

Raekwon McMillan went down with a torn Achilles during New England’s offseason workouts, ending the linebacker’s season before it even began. However, for the second time in his tenure with the organization, he inked an extension ahead of a season in which he will not participate. McMillan bounced back from that 2021 ACL tear to play 16 games for the Patriots last season, finishing with 35 tackles and a fumble returned for a TD.

Free agency additions:

The Patriots didn’t really add to their offense as much as they simply signed free agents to replace their departed players (which we’ll get to below). Still, that’s not to say that the free agent acquisitions won’t help the Patriots and Jones in 2023. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the Chiefs in receiving during his one season playing alongside Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, finishing with 933 receiving yards and three touchdowns. While Smith-Schuster made notable contributions for a team that traded Tyreek Hill, that yardage figure is a far cry from his best year with the Steelers. The wideout is now five years removed from his breakout 2018 campaign that saw him compile 1,426 receiving yards, but the Patriots clearly added him as a depth piece instead of an offensive focal point.

Bill O’Brien was at the helm when the Patriots rolled with their talented tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, so pairing Mike Gesicki with Hunter Henry is certainly intriguing. Still, the tight end struggled in Miami on the franchise tag last season after the organization added notable offensive weapons, finishing with his fewest receptions and receiving yards (32 for 362) since his rookie campaign. Miami’s offense is obviously a lot more dynamic than New England’s, but it will be interesting to see if Gesicki can produce with a number of comparable weapons around him.

The team’s biggest-name acquisition came during the preseason, when the Patriots added veteran Ezekiel Elliott to their backfield. The former All-Pro averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as he was used increasingly as a short-yardage specialist, and he was ultimately cut by the Cowboys during the offseason. He’ll likely see a similar secondary role in New England with Rhamondre Stevenson emerging as a capable lead back.

Riley Reiff brings 149 games of starting experience to New England, and the veteran will likely fill in for the departed Isaiah Wynn at right tackle. Reiff’s production in recent years has been up and down, a fact that was reinforced when he couldn’t even crack the starting lineup for the lowly Bears to begin the 2022 campaign. Still, with the Patriots likely rostering at least three rookie offensive linemen, there’s a good chance the Patriots rely on Reiff’s veteran knowhow, even if it’s just temporary.

Re-signings:

The New England secondary had the potential to look a whole lot different in 2023, and we’re not even talking about the addition of Christian Gonzalez and the subtraction of long-time Patriot Devin McCourty. Three key defensive backs hit free agency at one time or another, and all three ended up re-signing with New England

Jonathan Jones has played in a variety of roles during his seven seasons in New England. He was mostly known as a slot cornerback through the first chunk of his career, but he was forced to the outside following J.C. Jackson‘s exit last offseason. Jones ended up having a career season from a statistical perspective, compiling 69 tackles, four interceptions and 11 passes defended. It was uncertain if the organization would pony up to re-sign the veteran, especially with the front office investing so much draft capital into the position in recent years. However, Jones ended up re-upping with the organization, and regardless of his role in 2023, he’ll certainly be an important part of the defense.

Jabrill Peppers is another Swiss Army Knife weapon in New England’s secondary, and while the former first-round pick managed to rehabilitate his value in 2022, he still decided to stick in New England. Peppers has the ability to play in the hybrid linebacker role that Patrick Chung used to play, but with McCourty now out of the picture, the coaching staff may lean on him even more in the secondary in 2023.

Jalen Mills had an intersting offseason, with the veteran defender earning his walking papers before re-signing with the organization within the week. Mills did not necessarily live up to the four-year, $24MM contract he initially signed with the Patriots in 2021, but the team’s newfound depth means it won’t be as reliant on the veteran as they once were. Plus, Mills’ versatility will only be seen as a positive in New England.

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Offseason In Review: Washington Commanders

August 31st, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Commanders’ roster moves did not receive too much attention this offseason. Dan Snyder‘s prolonged exit overshadowed his former team’s football matters. The Snyder-to-Josh Harris transfer represents the most important storyline involving this franchise this century. Without the historically unpopular owner, the once-respected organization can begin to pick up the pieces.

As the team does so, an interesting blueprint has formed. No head coach’s seat should be considered hotter than Ron Rivera‘s, and longtime HC candidate Eric Bieniemy is now in place as the team’s play-caller. The unusual circumstances surrounding Bieniemy’s arrival aside, the Commanders have operated curiously — and intently — at quarterback. Rivera’s job security will be tied to a fifth-round quarterback — Sam Howell — the team has backed since his Week 18 debut.

Extensions and restructures:

The Commanders’ most expensive roster maneuver came before free agency, and it became a seminal development for the defensive tackle market. Payne’s extension laid the groundwork for the new second tier of D-tackle contracts that bridge the gap between Aaron Donald and the field. This agreement came to pass after Payne delivered a strong contract year, starring alongside Jonathan Allen to help a Commanders team still without the full services of Chase Young. After Payne’s 11.5-sack season — which more than doubled his previous single-slate best — Washington unholstered the franchise tag.

Payne and Terry McLaurin loomed as 2022 extension candidates, but the Commanders took care of their top receiver and drafted a potential Payne replacement (fellow Alabama alum Phidarian Mathis) in the second round. But Mathis went down four plays into his rookie season, which turned into a breakthrough year for Payne.

The Commanders expressed a greater interest in extending Payne after his contract-year showing, and his deal at the time became the highest non-Donald AAV at the position. Payne’s pact provided a baseline for Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons and Quinnen Williams‘ second contracts — each of which ending between $22.5MM and $24MM per year — and has given the Chiefs a Chris Jones price range. The veteran All-Pro, however, has viewed that level as beneath him, holding out for Donald-level dough.

Payne’s deal gives the Commanders two D-tackle AAVs of at least $18MM. The Giants match this and are doing so with Daniel Jones extended. Washington getting off Carson Wentz‘s contract, moving to Howell, will allow for a higher volume of payments elsewhere on the roster. With Payne and Allen extended, it sets the stage for an interesting decision at defensive end — where Young and Montez Sweat are going into contract years.

Free agency additions:

Six teams used the franchise tag this year. The Commanders were the only one to hammer out an extension before free agency. Doing so took Payne’s tag price out of the equation and dropped the sixth-year defender’s 2023 cap hit by nearly $10MM. This, along with some notable cuts, gave Washington some cash to spend. The team primarily targeted middling offensive linemen, though Brissett secured a pay increase after a better-than-expected Cleveland campaign.

Wylie, 29, enhanced his value considerably in 2022. While a Chiefs regular, Wylie did not earn much — by NFL standards, at least — during his five seasons in Kansas City. The Chiefs re-signed him on a one-year, $2.54MM deal during the 2022 offseason. Despite the low-end contract, Kansas City stashed Wylie — a former guard — at right tackle. This became an important transition for the former UDFA.

A Chiefs 2021 O-line makeover — after a disastrous blocking effort in Super Bowl LV — produced answers at the four other O-line spots. But the AFC powerhouse skimped at right tackle. (Wylie started 11 games for the Super Bowl LIV-winning Chiefs team but missed those playoffs due to injury.) The only Chiefs Super Bowl LV O-line starter who remained a first-stringer in the aftermath, Wylie held a part-time role in 2021 and lined up with the first-stringers in every game for the Super Bowl LVII-winning team.

Pro Football Focus barely ranked Wylie inside the top 60 among tackles last season, and the Chiefs paid up — via a four-year, $80MM Jawaan Taylor deal — to replace him. But this year’s right tackle market boomed. Mike McGlinchey secured a $17.5MM-per-year contract (and a whopping $52.5MM in practical guarantees), while Kaleb McGary fetched $11.5MM per year to stay with the Falcons. Wylie settled in at a lower rate, but given his pre-2023 earnings, this contract is a game-changer for the Eastern Michigan alum. Wylie’s five-season Chiefs run overlapped entirely with Bieniemy’s OC tenure.

Washington paid market value for Gates, who was among five centers to score a deal worth between $4MM and $6MM per year in March. Gates’ career paused after a severe leg injury during a September 2021 game in Washington. The Giants had given him an extension to be their center, but New York’s revolving door post-Weston Richburg at the position kept spinning once Gates went down. Gates, 27, made it back for a midseason activation last year, helping the Giants to a surprising playoff berth. The former UDFA finished the season in a platoon setup at left guard, but he is returning to the pivot in Washington, potentially manning the job as third-round pick Ricky Stromberg develops.

It is fair to wonder if the Commanders are taking too big a risk by fielding an O-line full of modest investments. This group still features Charles Leno, a Bears castoff going into his age-32 season, at left tackle. Sam Cosmi has shifted from tackle to guard; this will be the former second-rounder’s first season as a full-time starter. Washington held a position battle for the left guard spot, with 2020 fourth-round pick Saahdiq Charles (eight starts in three seasons) expected to open the season as the starter. Howell looks to be stepping in behind an average-at-best unit.

The Commanders gave Barton a “prove it” deal. Seattle’s Bobby Wagner Seahawks replacement alongside Jordyn Brooks, Barton will replace Cole Holcomb in Washington. The Steelers brought in Holcomb in free agency. This will only be Barton’s second season as a starter; PFF assessed his first modestly, ranking the former third-round pick just inside the top 60 at the position. Statistically, Barton delivered a career year — 136 tackles, six passes defensed, two sacks and two INTs — and Jack Del Rio will attempt to plug him in at a position that has caused some issues for the team in recent years.

While Howell received tremendous votes of confidence despite a fifth-round pedigree and a one-game rookie year, the Commanders added Brissett as insurance. Brissett, 30, has made a career out of this, stepping in on short notice twice for Andrew Luck and then backing up Tua Tagovailoa before becoming the Browns’ Deshaun Watson stopgap. After struggling for the Dolphins, Brissett performed admirably in his Browns one-off.

Cleveland went just 4-7 during Brissett’s starter run, but QBR placed the journeyman eighth. Brissett completed a career-high 64% of his passes (at 7.1 yards per attempt, also a career-best mark during a season in which he operated as his team’s primary starter), keeping the Browns in most of their games. Among backup options this year, only Andy Dalton received more guaranteed money ($8MM). The former Patriots third-round pick has made 48 career starts, providing a backstop if Howell does not deliver on this offseason promise.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

Wentz’s staggering descent has reached the point he looks unlikely to be on a team ahead of what would be his age-30 season. The former No. 2 overall pick has been working out in preparation of playing an eighth season, but no team has provided an opportunity (or Wentz has not accepted one). The 2017 would-be MVP has been jettisoned in three straight offseasons, with each exit more ignominious than the last. Wentz played four seasons on a $32MM-per-year contract and has pocketed more than $128MM in his career. Said career would still go down as disappointing if a notable second act does not commence.

The Commanders parting with two third-round picks for Wentz, taking on his contract after Jim Irsay was driving the bus over his 2021 starter, was surprising. But Washington’s efforts to trade for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr (and a potential inquiry into Andrew Luck‘s status) failed. Wentz being the consolation prize helped illuminate this franchise’s standing within the league. Predictably, the Wentz-Washington fit proved poor. A thumb injury limited Wentz to seven starts with Washington, which kept him on the bench as Heinicke provided a spark after Wentz had the team at 1-4.

Rivera turned back to the more talented quarterback in Week 17, but Wentz’s three-interception game sank the Commanders in a make-or-break game against the Browns. Due to the Eagles-constructed contract being traded twice, the Wentz cut did not leave the Commanders with any dead money. The $26MM in cap savings financed the Payne franchise tag.

The Falcons gave Heinicke a two-year, $14MM contract ($6.32MM guaranteed) to back up another 2022 mid-round-pick-turned-starter (Desmond Ridder). Washington had tried to keep Heinicke on the bench, signing Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2021 and then trading for Wentz. But the former Rivera Panthers charge kept finding his way into the lineup. Fitzpatrick’s 16-play Washington career led to 15 Heinicke starts in 2021, while the 2022 Commanders’ best work came with Heinicke at the controls. Heinicke, 30, improved his passer rating, yards per attempt and QBR figures last season, and Washington fans will always have his stunning wild-card duel with Tom Brady. The Old Dominion alum used his Washington stay to carve out a place as a decent NFL backup, a path that could lead to a few more years in the league.

The team did not make any secret of its Howell plans, letting it be known in January he had the inside track to start. Few quarterbacks have parlayed a meaningless season finale into a better opportunity. (Patrick Mahomes and Rob Johnson come to mind, but few others). But the Commanders placed a second-round grade on Howell, who fell from a player on the first-round radar to the top of the fifth. North Carolina losing most of Howell’s established weapons from 2020 to 2021 harmed the QB’s stock. It is safe to say he has rebounded in Washington.

Rivera’s instability makes the Howell call one of the bolder moves in recent memory, and it represents a swerve from the Commanders’ 2022 plans. Calling on just about every quarterback available or potentially available, the Commanders showed desperation — to the point they acquired Wentz without any contractual adjustment — last year. This pattern surely would have seen the Commanders place a call to Lamar Jackson, had the Ravens standout been tagged a year prior. Instead, the team joined the rest of the league in passing on a negotiation with the then-franchise-tagged superstar.

This fascinating pivot to a low-cost option offers high-risk, high-reward potential for the Commanders’ coaching staff. Washington does have a history of coaxing quality work from mid- or late-round passers. Even under Snyder, Kirk Cousins bailed the team out — to a degree, at least — of the mess the Robert Griffin III trade-up caused. Howell propping up Rivera (22-27-1 in Washington) would mark a similar save.

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Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

August 30th, 2023 at 9:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

The preseason favorites last season endured major injury problems and saw a frightening scene alter their playoff route. Rather than earning a first-round bye, the Bills saw the Damar Hamlin sequence lead to a postponement-turned-cancellation and a No. 2 seed. Buffalo’s poor showing as the second seed exposed some foundational cracks, and the team spent the offseason attempting to repair the damage. While the injuries to Josh Allen and Von Miller represented the top deterrents last season, the Bills went to work on both lines to better prepare themselves for another Super Bowl push.

Free agency additions:

In terms of outside investments, McGovern became the top priority. Agreeing to his contract on Day 1 of the legal tampering period, McGovern parlayed one full-time Cowboys starter season into a midlevel AFC East accord. The Cowboys’ 2022 left guard starter will replace Rodger Saffold, who became a Bills one-and-done. In ranking Buffalo’s offensive line 23rd overall, Pro Football Focus viewed the aging Saffold as one of the weak links.

McGovern, 25, does not bring an extensive track record to Buffalo. His backup, Edwards, has a longer run of starts. Although McGovern secured more than Cowboys LG predecessor Connor Williams, his AAV trailed a few 2022 guard pickups. Rather than pay up for the likes of James Daniels, Austin Corbett or Alex Cappa last year, the Bills rode with Saffold, whom PFF assigned a bottom-six guard grade. PFF also ranked McGovern outside the top 60, positing some questions. But the younger of the NFL’s blocking Connor McGoverns generated a market. Rather than go bigger for Ben Powers or Nate Davis, the Bills identified the ex-Cowboys third-rounder as an affordable solution.

The Bills have Edwards positioned as McGovern’s backup. Likely an upgrade on 2022 backup Greg Van Roten, Edwards started 45 games for the Rams. PFF viewed the former fifth-round pick as a top-30 guard in 2020 and 2021; Edwards started all 21 games for the Super Bowl LVI-bound Rams that season. Concussion trouble limited Edwards to four games last year, though Rams injuries piling up led them to prioritize other players’ returns from IR. The other Rams guard starter from Super Bowl LVI — Austin Corbett — fetched $8.75MM per year from the Panthers, but Edwards’ market cratered. The 26-year-old vet profiles as an interesting backup option for the Bills.

Buffalo also has Los Angeles’ two outside linebacker starters from that Super Bowl win, and Floyd should serve multiple purposes. Miller will begin the season on the reserve/PUP list; Floyd will insure the Bills’ edge rush, which Miller’s 2022 ACL tear left vulnerable. Proving he had solid NFL pass-rushing chops after an unremarkable Bears tenure, Floyd ripped off 29 sacks in three Rams seasons and added four more in the playoffs. Undoubtedly aided by Aaron Donald, Floyd still totaled four of his nine sacks last season in the five games the all-time great missed.

The Bills began talking terms with Floyd before the draft, and they ended up setting the veteran edge rusher market. Floyd’s deal preceded Frank Clark‘s, which laid the groundwork for the likes of Yannick Ngakoue, Justin Houston and Jadeveon Clowney to find homes. Buffalo rolling out a Miller-Floyd duo will take some pressure off Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. While the Bills will still want to keep Rousseau as a regular cog when Miller returns, the Super Bowl contender wanted more firepower. With Miller now having suffered two ACL tears as a pro, high-end insurance makes sense. With the Rams ditching his four-year, $64MM contract two seasons in, Floyd will attempt to use the Bills to score a final notable payday.

This could be a menacing pass rush once Miller returns, with the Bills having targeted Floyd regardless of the future Hall of Famer’s health. It took the Bills a full year — Thanksgiving 2021 to Thanksgiving 2022 — to feel comfortable redeploying Tre’Davious White. ACL tears are not created equal, and Miller expressed confidence in an early return. With the 13th-year edge rusher much older than the ace cornerback, however, the Bills will need Floyd early. The Rams unleashed a fearsome edge duo two years ago; the Bills will hope it is at full strength by the stretch run.

The Patriots’ lead weapon during that run-crazed Monday night in Buffalo two seasons ago, Harris landed near the bottom of this year’s deep RB1 market. With some of the NFL’s best running backs seeing their pay reduced (or contracts jettisoned), Harris stood little chance in finding much of a market. Supplanted by Rhamondre Stevenson last season, Harris will attempt to complement James Cook. While Harris did rush for 15 touchdowns, the Pats rarely involved him in the passing game. That role generally leads New England to move on after one contract, and the Bills added a between-the-tackles backup.

A 2022 second-rounder who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season, Cook is expected to be the leading man post-Devin Singletary. The Bills gave the Georgia alum just 89 rookie-year carries. He maxed out at 113 in a season with the Bulldogs. While Cook is on track to play a big role in Buffalo’s passing attack, he does not bring Jahmyr Gibbs-like college numbers in this era, having never eclipsed 300 receiving yards in a season. How Cook transitions to this bigger Year 2 role will be a key storyline in a stacked AFC East, which now includes both the Cook brothers. The Bills were briefly linked to Dalvin Cook, but he was more closely tied to the division’s other three clubs.

Re-signings:

A Poyer-or-Tremaine Edmunds retention scenario emerged for the Bills, who did manage to keep one of their defensive staples-turned-UFAs. Poyer hit the market but still ended up back in Buffalo. Set to run it back with Micah Hyde to keep the NFL’s longest-running safety tandem in place, Poyer is now 32. But a lucrative non-Jessie Bates safety market did not materialize, giving the Bills a chance to retain Poyer — after it looked like there was a real chance he would head elsewhere.

Hyde’s September neck injury represented a harbinger of what lie ahead for an injury-hounded Bills squad, and it put plenty on Poyer’s plate. The veteran delivered, intercepting four passes — his fourth Bills season with at least four picks — and earning Pro Bowl honors despite missing five games himself. This is Poyer’s third Bills contract. Despite the cap growth since Poyer inked his second Bills deal (two years, $19.5MM) back in 2019, no non-Bates safety securing a deal north of $8MM per year limited Poyer on the open market.

Poyer and Hyde, also 32, represent one of this century’s top safety duos. Assembled in Sean McDermott‘s first offseason as HC (but weeks before Brandon Beane replaced Doug Whaley as GM), the pair joined as low-middle-class free agents and has been instrumental in the franchise’s rise from obscurity to three-time reigning AFC East champions. The Bills have not held talks for a third Hyde contract, ahead of a platform year, but the latter is healthy going into his seventh year with the team.

With Hamlin on the cusp of turning his remarkable recovery into regular-season action, the Bills have a deep safety corps that now includes Rapp, who started 48 games with the Rams. With Rapp, Floyd and Edwards joining Miller (a year after the Saffold signing), the Bills have done well to catch some of Sean McVay‘s leftovers.

Notable losses:

The Bills effectively made their Milano-or-Edmunds choice two years ago, giving the older linebacker a four-year, $44MM deal that generated some head-turns at the time. Milano opted not to test free agency in 2021, agreeing to terms with the Bills on what was viewed at the time as a team-friendly contract. That still might be the case, but the ILB market did not heat up much this year. Only two off-ball ‘backers signed eight-figure-per-year accords during the 2023 free agency period.

Edmunds proved an outlier. His market exploded, with no ILB’s AAV coming within $7MM of what the Bears authorized. Chicago gave Edmunds a four-year, $72MM pact that included $41.8MM guaranteed at signing — the position’s third-highest number. With Allen extended and Diggs, Miller and Dion Dawkins on big-money deals, it was unrealistic for the Bills to pay two off-ball ‘backers upper-crust money.

Franchise-tagging Edmunds was not a realistic option. The tag’s formula grouping all linebackers together has led to 3-4 OLBs raising the price to the second-highest tag number — behind only quarterbacks. This will break up McDermott’s second long-running LB partnership; the seventh-year Bills HC mentored Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis for five seasons as well.

PFF graded Edmunds outside the top 50 at the position in 2020 and ’21 but slotted the former first-rounder in the top five last season. Edmunds earned the top ILB coverage mark from the advanced metrics website as well. The Bills have held a competition to replace Edmunds throughout the offseason, but the Terrel Bernard–Tyrel Dodson–A.J. Klein troika will have a difficult time producing Edmunds-level work. Although the Bills held talks with Edmunds, keeping him was essentially non-starter for the Bills this offseason.

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