Offseason In Review - Pro Football Rumors

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Chiefs

By Sam Robinson | at September 7, 2023 9:50 am

As partially chronicled on Netflix, the Chiefs secured their second Super Bowl championship in four seasons. Patrick Mahomes is now 3-for-5 in Super Bowl appearances as a starter and is the first quarterback since Otto Graham (1950-55) to begin an NFL career with five straight conference championship games. The two-time MVP gutted through a high ankle sprain to lift the Chiefs past the Jaguars, Bengals and Eagles.

Trading Tyreek Hill and letting Tyrann Mathieu walk in free agency, the Chiefs probably vanquished multiple playoff foes with better overall rosters. The Eagles certainly had such a claim. But Kansas City’s Mahomes-Andy Reid foundation has provided a historic advantage, compensating for roster issues elsewhere. The Chiefs have been fortunate regarding the availability of Mahomes’ top two co-stars. Travis Kelce and Chris Jones each suiting up for all 20 games obviously aided last year’s effort. There is a good chance neither will play in Week 1, giving the Mahomes-Reid partnership a new challenge to start its latest title defense.

Free agency additions:

Jawaan Taylor, T: Four years, $80MM ($40MM guaranteed)
Charles Omenihu, DE: Three years, $24MM ($8.6MM guaranteed)
Mike Edwards, S: One year, $3MM ($2.48MM guaranteed)
Drue Tranquill, LB: One year, $3MM ($2.45MM guaranteed)
Blaine Gabbert, QB: One year, $1.32MM ($1.1MM guaranteed)
Donovan Smith, T: One year, $3MM ($1.98MM guaranteed)
Richie James, WR: One year, $1.32MM ($553K guaranteed)
Lamar Jackson, CB: One year, $940K

A trade package centering around a first-round pick brought Orlando Brown Jr. to Kansas City in 2021. The Chiefs then franchise-tagged him last year. After not re-tagging Brown, the defending champions have made some changes regarding their tackle priority. They have taken care of the right tackle spot with Taylor and brought in a veteran placeholder in Smith, whom the Buccaneers released in March. This is a rather interesting setup, as the Reid years have either featured mid- or high-level investments in both tackle spots (Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz) or seen the RT position overlooked.

For a stretch immediately following Taylor’s signing, it appeared the plan would be to move the former Jaguars and Florida Gators right tackle to the blind side. The team changed course upon signing Smith in May. Taylor, 25, will now keep going on the right side.

The four-year Jags starter has never missed a game. While PFR rated Taylor third overall for free agent earning power, the Chiefs think highly of a player who needed to win a training camp battle — over Walker Little — to keep his RT job going into last season. Taylor’s contract-year work scored him a life-changing payday, and he will camp outside of Florida for the first time. The Jaguars decided on tagging Evan Engram, a cheaper option that led to an extension, over cuffing Taylor. Jacksonville already has a top-10 left tackle payment (for Cam Robinson) on its books. Taylor then joined Mike McGlinchey and Kaleb McGary in comprising a strong right tackle free agency class.

More of a pass pro-oriented right tackle compared to McGlinchey, Taylor boasts a skillset fitting Reid’s attack better. Pro Football Focus has long been skeptical of Taylor’s abilities, having not ranked him inside the top 60 among tackles since his rookie year, when the advanced metrics site slotted him 49th. However, the former second-round pick dropped his hold count from 11 in 2021 to two last season. And Football Outsiders charted Taylor as posting a career-low blown-block rate (1.3%).

This represents a risk from the Chiefs, who gave a player who was not exactly viewed as an upper-echelon right tackle for much of his rookie-contract run the second-most lucrative contract at the position. Taylor’s $20MM AAV trails only Lane Johnson‘s ($20.2MM). A significant accolade disparity exists between those two, but the Chiefs are betting the fifth-year blocker’s best football lies ahead. Taylor will join one of the NFL’s best O-line nuclei, which still features rookie-deal cogs Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith.

Older blockers now populate the left side of Kansas City’s line. Smith and left guard Joe Thuney are both 30. Smith also struggled during his final Bucs campaign, rating one spot behind Taylor (66th) in PFF’s view. His 12 penalties (including seven holds) ranked second in the NFL, and Todd Bowles considered benching the longtime left tackle last season. We slotted the Chiefs as the best Smith fit, and the ex-Tom Brady protector will be thrust into another high-profile spot. The second-longest-tenured left tackle in Bucs history, Smith signed three contracts with the team and has made 124 career starts.

A Missouri native who starred at Mizzou after Chase Daniel‘s exit from the then-Big 12 program, Gabbert is back in his home state after 12 seasons elsewhere. The Chiefs’ previous Mahomes backup, Chad Henne, once replaced Gabbert in Jacksonville in the early 2010s. That demotion — after being chosen 10th overall in 2011 — dropped Gabbert to the backup tier. Other than when he briefly unseated Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, Gabbert has remained a backup ever since the Jags’ decision.

Brady did not miss a start with the Bucs, keeping Gabbert on the bench. Gabbert did make some successful cameos under Bruce Arians with the 2017 Cardinals; his last starts came with the 2018 Titans. Mahomes displayed his toughness during the playoffs but has missed time in two of Kansas City’s past three divisional-round games. Mahomes also missed two games in 2019 with a knee injury. Henne and Matt Moore made memorable contributions to help Super Bowl-winning Chiefs squads. Reid pulling Moore out of retirement in 2019, after a season-ending Henne injury, and coaxing decent performances bodes well for Gabbert’s potential form should Mahomes go down.

The Reid-era Chiefs have not shown much concern for adding players deemed character risks. One of those gambles (Hill) will be in the Hall of Fame one day; another (Frank Clark) made vital postseason contributions. This has created some controversy, but the Chiefs have also generated some positive results from this old-school strategy. The Chiefs, who also gave ex-first-round cornerbacks DeAndre Baker and Damon Arnette second chances after off-field issues led to early exits elsewhere, will bet on Omenihu. The former Nick Bosa supporting-caster was arrested on a domestic violence charge in January. He already received a six-game suspension.

Omenihu, 26, showed promising form for a 49ers team that frequently enhances defensive ends’ capabilities, posting the 12th-best pass rush win rate — among D-ends — in 2021 and totaling 4.5 sacks and 16 QB hits last year. With the Chiefs cutting Clark and depending on two recent first-rounders (George Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah) on the edge, Omenihu stands to become an important piece. This suspension threatens to void the fifth-year pass rusher’s guarantees; it will also place pressure on the two young DEs as Jones remains on the reserve/did not report list.

Even with the off-ball linebacker market featuring few major paydays this offseason, Tranquill’s low-cost pact surprised. The former fourth-round pick out of Notre Dame was one of the NFL’s most productive linebackers last season, pairing 146 tackles with five sacks, four pass deflections and a forced fumble. The Chargers let the Gus Bradley-era investment Tranquill walk and gave Eric Kendricks a two-year, $13.25MM deal. Reid reaching out to Tranquill, 28, helped seal the deal for the fifth-year linebacker to join Nick Bolton and Willie Gay on Kansas City’s defensive second level.

Re-signings:

Justin Watson, WR: Two years, $3.4MM ($1.3MM guaranteed)
Jerick McKinnon, RB: One year, $1.32MM ($1.1MM guaranteed)
Derrick Nnadi, DT: One year, $1.23MM ($1.1MM guaranteed)
Tershawn Wharton, DT: One year, $2MM ($850K guaranteed)
Deon Bush, S: One year, $1.32MM ($350K guaranteed)
Blake Bell, TE: One year, $1.32MM

Although McKinnon has not seen a contract close to the one the 49ers gave him in 2018, he has been an undeniable success story in a bleak period for the position. The Chiefs have now given McKinnon three one-year contracts, and it is interesting this one did not require much of a raise from 2022. Then again, the market was unkind to most backs this year.

McKinnon became a valuable piece for the Chiefs, setting a post-merger NFL running back record by catching a touchdown pass in six straight games. McKinnon’s nine receiving TDs broke a Chiefs single-season RB standard as well, and his 10 total TDs marked a career high for the one-time Adrian Peterson Vikings successor.

Whiffing on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a first-rounder who was supposed to become a dynamic aerial option for Mahomes, the Chiefs have both rectified the situation with McKinnon and dealt another blow to RB value in doing so. While most teams cannot get away with giving the keys to a seventh-round pick (Isiah Pacheco) and a 31-year-old back on veteran-minimum money, Mahomes’ presence affords the Chiefs luxuries. This low-cost duo comprising the Chiefs’ playoff backfield undoubtedly affected teams’ thinking at the position this offseason.

McKinnon, who missed two full 49ers seasons after signing a four-year deal worth $28MM, played in every Chiefs game last season. The ex-Vikings draftee has made his most valuable contributions in his NFL twilight years.

Notable losses:

Orlando Brown Jr., T
Michael Burton, FB
Frank Clark, DE (released)
Carlos Dunlap, DE
Mecole Hardman, WR
Darius Harris, LB
Chad Henne, QB (retired)
Ronald Jones, RB
Khalen Saunders, DT
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Juan Thornhill, S
Brandon Williams, DT
Andrew Wylie, OL

The Chiefs had wanted to retain Brown, but they passed on tagging him a second time (at a cost of $19.9MM). If Donovan Smith proves a significant downgrade at the O-line’s glamour position, not re-tagging Brown — a move believed to be in play for a bit — will look like a questionable strategy. Then again, a Brown tag would have almost definitely prevented the Taylor signing. Brown made his way to Cincinnati, and while the overall contract number did not match what the Chiefs proposed before the July 2022 tag extension deadline, the sixth-year blocker still made out well.

It was assumed when the Chiefs traded first-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round picks for Brown, a second and a sixth in 2021 that the ex-Ravens right tackle — who had angled to be a full-time left tackle — would become a long-term Kansas City blocker. The team giving up that kind of package pointed to an extension being in the works, but the Chiefs held off on a re-up until 2022. This strategy benefited Brown’s profile, as he racked up a Pro Bowl in his first full-time LT season. The Chiefs were then unable to work out an extension by last summer’s tag deadline, though team brass’ frustration with Brown suggested a belief the AFC West powerhouse could lock down its blind-sider.

Kansas City submitted Brown a six-year, $139MM proposal before the July 2022 deadline, and while the $23.1MM AAV topped Trent Williams‘ then-LT-record number, the Chiefs included an inflated sixth season to boost the number to that point. This is a common tactic for teams; the Dolphins did this to bump Hill’s AAV to $30MM. It did not move the needle for Brown, who cited insufficient guarantees upon declining. The Chiefs’ offer contained $38MM fully guaranteed, which would have ranked fourth among tackles at the time. While Brown said he wanted to remain a Chief for the long haul and made a second Pro Bowl with the team last season, the organization decided to move on.

Brown, 26, probably made the smarter financial decision by not signing a six-year extension. Brown’s Bengals AAV ($16MM) trails the Chiefs offer, but Cincinnati gave him $31.1MM guaranteed at signing and included $42.35MM over the deal’s first two seasons. The former third-round pick will now have a chance at a third contract earlier than he would have had signed the Chiefs extension. Brown’s size made his matchups with quicker edge rushers adventurous, though PFF graded the 363-pound blocker as a top-20 tackle last season. His defection improving the Bengals’ O-line may end up mattering in a crowded AFC race.

Wylie’s deal did not trail McGary’s Falcons pact by much; the Commanders gave the longtime Chiefs starter a three-year, $24MM accord to follow Eric Bieniemy. This was a bit surprising, seeing as Wylie played on multiple low-cost veteran agreements — including a one-year, $2.5MM deal in 2022 — with the Chiefs over the past two seasons. The Chiefs poured significant resources into three O-line spots and found a gem in sixth-rounder Trey Smith. The team, in turn, refrained from paying up at right tackle for a bit. But Wylie offered some stability last season. The former UDFA, who played guard and tackle in Kansas City, started all 20 Chiefs games during the Super Bowl LVII-winning campaign. Given the expenses on KC’s cap sheet, matching the Commanders’ offer was likely a non-starter for the defending champs.

In the grand scheme, the Chiefs overpaid for Clark. A month after sending Dee Ford to the 49ers in a tag-and-trade scenario, the Chiefs gave up first- and second-rounders to acquire Clark from the Seahawks. GM Brett Veach then authorized a five-year, $104MM extension. Clark never eclipsed eight sacks in a season across four Kansas City slates, after doing so in his final three Seattle years, and was twice arrested on gun charges in 2021. That produced a 2022 suspension, which commenced after the Chiefs kept him on a reduced salary.

That said, Clark made a big impact for the Chiefs in the playoffs. The veteran pass rusher now ranks behind only Bruce Smith and Willie McGinest for postseason sacks, with his 2.5 from the 2022 postseason upping his total to 13.5. Clark, 30, caught on with the Broncos on a one-year, $5.5MM deal.

A two-year Chiefs courtship led to Smith-Schuster signing on in 2022. The ex-Steeler picked a good time to join Mahomes and Co. The six-year veteran paced a post-Hill wideout corps by a wide margin in receiving yards (933) and drew the crucial holding penalty that effectively locked up the Super Bowl win. Mutual interest on a second contract existed between the Chiefs and Smith-Schuster, who is somehow just 26. He and Reid communicated before and during free agency, and the 11th-year Chiefs HC said the Patriots authorizing a three-year, $25.5MM deal ($16MM fully guaranteed) was well out of K.C.’s price range. That comment proved eye-opening regarding the AFC power’s budget at the position, after parting with Hill rather than pay him Davante Adams-level money.

With Smith-Schuster and Hardman walking (to the Jets), the latter being expected to depart after an inconsistent tenure, the Chiefs have tested fantasy GMs ahead of this season. They kept seven receivers on their 53-man roster, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Smith-Schuster slot successor Skyy Moore tentatively expected to be the lead producers. The team had hoped Kadarius Toney could become a No. 1-caliber target for Mahomes, and while the shifty ex-first-rounder has recovered from the meniscus injury sustained minutes into training camp, the cavalcade of maladies he has suffered since entering the NFL brings obvious unreliability.

Watson, James, second-rounder Rashee Rice and UDFA flier Justyn Ross — a one-time first-round-level prospect while at Clemson, before a career-threatening neck injury intervened — comprise the Chiefs’ muddled receiving corps. This will be one of the league’s most interesting position groups to observe early in the season. With Kelce battling a knee contusion that could force his first injury-related absence since microfracture surgery shelved him for 15 games in 2013, this group may go it alone to start the season.

Thornhill rebounded from a late-season ACL tear as a rookie to become a solid Chiefs starter, but the team already has a higher-end safety contract (Justin Reid‘s three-year, $31.5MM deal) on its payroll. This led to the Browns adding Thornhill for three years and $21MM. The Chiefs acquired Thornhill’s replacement — Bryan Cook — in the 2022 second round. Ex-Bucs safety Mike Edwards provides an insurance option in case Cook (one rookie-year start) is not quite ready.

Extensions and restructures:

Restructured QB Patrick Mahomes‘ contract, creating $9.6MM in cap space

Going into his age-28 season, Mahomes has not made it known he is dissatisfied with his contract. Then again, Joe Burrow‘s eventual deal would bump the league’s biggest star to eighth in AAV. And no quarterback who signed an extension since Mahomes’ July 2020 contract has followed his lead on contract length. Mahomes’ $45MM-per-year deal runs through 2031; it remains the only NFL contract extending into the 2030s. While this has given the Chiefs flexibility, it will eventually need to be revised as the market soars.

Veach said the team would reexamine Mahomes’ contract after this round of QB deals wrapped. With Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert signed, only Burrow’s accord remains. An adjustment would require more creativity from the Chiefs, as teams do not make a habit of removing years from players’ contracts. But if any active NFLer has contractual carte blanche with a team, the Chiefs roster him. The Chiefs will not want to become embroiled in a dispute with a player that has meant this much to the franchise’s fortunes, but nothing appears imminent on this front. The Chris Jones matter still needs to be resolved.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 31: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE (Kansas State) (signed)
Round 2, No. 55 (from Vikings through Lions): Rashee Rice, WR (SMU) (signed)
Round 3, No. 92 (from Bengals): Wanya Morris, T (Oklahoma) (signed)
Round 4, No. 119 (from Lions through Vikings): Chamarri Conner, CB (Virginia Tech) (signed)
Round 5, No. 166: BJ Thompson, LB (Stephen F. Austin) (signed)
Round 6, No. 194 (from Lions): Keondre Coburn, DT (Texas) (signed)
Round 7, No. 250: Nic Jones, CB (Ball State) (signed)

The bevy of visits and arranged workouts with Mahomes showed the Chiefs’ hand to a degree, and while Rice became the receiver investment, higher-level prospects appeared on the team’s radar. Believed to be interested in Quentin Johnston, the Chiefs also organized a Mahomes-Zay Flowers throwing session.

During Round 1, the Vikings are believed to have fielded a call from the reigning champs, who were pegged as interested in Jordan Addison. The Chargers, Ravens and Vikes respectively chose Flowers, Johnston and Addison from Nos. 21-23, and the Chiefs stood down. A first-round wideout would have added some clarity to Kansas City’s receiver setup, but the team addressed its pass rush soon after the Vikings call.

Hailing from Kansas City, Mo., suburb Lee’s Summit, Anudike-Uzomah earned Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year acclaim at Kansas State. He combined to register 19.5 sacks, 25.5 tackles for loss and eight forced fumbles from 2021-22. The Clark cut and Omenihu suspension clears a path for a regular early-season role for the 21-year-old edge rusher, though he enters the season as a rotational option behind Karlaftis and Mike Danna. The latter totaled five sacks last season but profiles as a backup when all parties are available. The Chiefs, who were connected to a second Carlos Dunlap agreement but did not follow through, will expect Anudike-Uzomah to become a regular early.

Rice also caught passes from Mahomes leading up to the draft and enticed the Chiefs to trade up eight spots in Round 2. Although, Rice was not rated nearly as highly compared to the four first-round wideouts. ESPN’s Scouts Inc. slotted the SMU product 124th in this year’s class; the Chiefs disagreed with that assessment.

The 6-foot pass catcher worked as an SMU regular for four seasons, topping out with a 1,355-yard senior showing. He added 14 receptions for 155 yards during the Chiefs’ preseason slate. With Toney a perpetual injury risk and nothing else about the team’s non-MVS receiver corps sorted out yet, Rice could certainly factor in early.

Veach said Moore will have a three-down role to start the season, with Rice on track for situational work early. It took Moore a year to assimilate in Reid’s offense, and Hill remains the only Reid-era receiver draft choice to become an impact receiver in Kansas City. Since Reid arrived in 2013, Hill is the only Chiefs receiver draftee to top 600 yards in a season. With Kelce going into his age-34 season, the Chiefs will likely need that to change this year.

Other:

OC Eric Bieniemy accepts Commanders’ OC job; QBs coach Matt Nagy promoted as replacement
DT Chris Jones staged holdout; sides continue extension talks
Negotiated trade for WR DeAndre Hopkins with Cardinals
Declined RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s $5.46MM fifth-year option
Promoted assistant quarterbacks coach David Girardi to QBs coach; Hired Todd Pinkston as RBs coach

Reid had stumped for Bieniemy as a head coach for years, but no team viewed him as the right fit. This placed the five-year Chiefs OC as a lightning rod, seeing as Nagy and Doug Pederson were hired after shorter tenures as Kansas City’s OC. The league’s issues hiring minority candidates prompted multiple changes to the Rooney Rule in recent years, and while Bieniemy had legal issues in his past and has been accused of not interviewing well, it rankled many that he could not land a job after his role as Reid’s right-hand man during one of the most explosive periods any offense has put together.

In all, Bieniemy has taken 16 HC interviews. Only one of those, however, came this year. Bieniemy, 52, met with ex-Chiefs coworker Chris Ballard but was not a finalist for the Colts job. The Commanders and Ravens showed interest in the 10-year Reid assistant as an offensive coordinator, and although it still looks strange to see the Chiefs OC need to accept another OC role in an attempt to better position himself for the HC carousel, Bieniemy is now in Washington.

Bieniemy’s lack of play-calling credentials hurt him on the interview circuit, though other assistants have lacked such qualifications upon being hired. Nevertheless, the former running back will attempt to prove his credentials by calling plays for a less talented team.

Mike Kafka becoming the Giants’ OC, beating Bieniemy to a play-calling role, led Reid to rehire Nagy. The two-year Kansas City OC flamed out as Chicago’s HC, despite earning Coach of the Year honors in 2018. Bieniemy’s departure creates an opportunity for Nagy, who did call plays at points during his initial Chiefs OC tenure — when Alex Smith remained the QB. Smith enjoyed his best season under Nagy, who parlayed that 2017 performance into the Bears gig. This will be Nagy’s first chance as Chiefs OC with Mahomes at the controls.

Before turning to the draft to address its receiver need, Kansas City showed steady interest in Hopkins. This pursuit initially popped up in March, and Hopkins expressed interest in joining the Chiefs via trade. The Chiefs then discussed Hopkins terms with the Cardinals, and the former All-Pro was seemingly ready to adjust his contract to facilitate a move. Odell Beckham Jr. securing $15MM guaranteed from the Ravens scuttled the Cards’ talks with the Chiefs and Bills, however. The Chiefs remained on the radar for Hopkins during his lengthy free agency stay, but the Titans’ offer came in much higher than theirs or other suitors’ proposals.

A Jones extension would have helped carve out cap space for a potential Hopkins signing; this sequence of events was on the receiver’s radar. Instead of a deal by training camp, the Jones process dragged much longer than most anticipated and is all set to produce a rare in-season holdout.

The Chiefs had balked at a monster third Hill contract and let Mathieu walk in preparation for another Jones extension, but not too long after those 2022 decisions, Aaron Donald signed a market-reshaping Rams deal. Just as the Raiders’ Davante Adams extension helped lead Hill to the Dolphins, Donald’s three-year, $95MM pact ended up hijacking the Chiefs’ Jones plans.

Donald’s 2017 holdout led to a Week 1 absence, but it did not bring the consequences this one does. Jones, 28, has incurred more than $2MM in fines. Sitting on the reserve/did not report list, Jones will also miss out on $1.1MM for each game missed. The Rams waived Donald’s camp fines, just as the 49ers did with Nick Bosa on Wednesday. The 2020 CBA prevents the Chiefs from waiving Jones’ penalties, differentiating rookie-deal holdouts from players who miss camp on veteran contracts. Going into the final season of a four-year, $80MM extension — agreed to at the 2020 franchise tag deadline — Jones has seen his AAV drop to ninth at the position.

In talks with Jones since at least June, the Chiefs have wanted to pay him closer to the newly formed Daron Payne–Dexter Lawrence–Jeffery Simmons–Quinnen Williams tier, which the Jets standout tops at $24MM per year. Jones, who is the only pure defensive tackle in the sack era (1982-present) with two 15-sack seasons, has countered by asking for money closer to Donald’s $31.7MM-per-year pact. Jones has been connected to asks of $30MM and later $28MM per year, potentially dropping his price. Will Bosa’s new $34MM-AAV megadeal change his price point?

Jones possesses unique leverage. The Chiefs are grooming young D-ends and have Omenihu out until Week 7. Kansas City also cannot realistically tag Jones again in 2024; because of the 2020 tag, Jones’ 2024 number would come in at $33.6MM. While Jones said he did not want to be a distraction by holding in, he has sacrificed millions in staying away. The Chiefs have let just about every other core defender during the Mahomes era leave, while Jones has been the constant. Both Bosa and Zack Martin‘s holdouts ended up being tremendously beneficial. Will the Chiefs end up caving to Jones’ demands?

While Jones has floated the notion of staying away until Week 8 — the point players must report to gain an accrued season toward free agency — it would undercut his financial mission to lose out on $10MM between camp fines and game checks. Vincent Jackson once stayed away from the Chargers, protesting the uncapped 2010 year that changed service-time requirements, through Week 8 but did so on a rookie contract. It remains unlikely Jones will sit out until midseason, though his resolve should no longer be doubted. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs’ defense fares without him in games.

Top 10 cap hits for 2023:

Patrick Mahomes, QB: $39.69MM
Chris Jones, DT: $28.29MM
Joe Thuney, G: $22.12MM
Travis Kelce, TE: $14.8MM
Justin Reid, S: $12.7MM
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR: $11MM
Jawaan Taylor, T: $5.83MM
Harrison Butker, K: $5.11MM
Charles Omenihu, DE: $4.85MM
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB: $3.44MM

This Jones issue hovered over the Chiefs’ offseason during a year in which the AFC grew stronger. The conference imbalance is stark ahead of Week 1, with the AFC featuring a deep contender contingent. Then again, the Chiefs have thwarted most challenges during the Mahomes years. They are the only team in NFL history to host five consecutive conference championship games.

Gunning to become just the second franchise to venture to four Super Bowls in a five-year span (Patriots: 2014-18), the Chiefs should be expected to field a championship-caliber squad once again. But Jones missing time and Kelce entering his mid-30s threatens to thin the margin for error. Though, the Chiefs’ ruthless consistency makes them difficult to bet against regardless of circumstances.

Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

By Sam Robinson | at September 6, 2023 10:24 pm

The Colts’ stunning 2021 season-ender in Jacksonville seems does not exactly seem like it occurred 20 months ago. So much has changed since. Although the batch of Pro Bowlers (minus one well-documented exception) from that talented team remains ahead of the 2023 season, they have observed a chaotic overhaul in the time since that crushing Jaguars loss. The Quenton Nelson-, DeForest Buckner– and Kenny Moore-fronted cast are now part of a rebuilding team, with a new coaching staff and another new quarterback in place.

While multiple All-Pros remain on Indianapolis’ roster, last year’s second-half trainwreck highlighted Jim Irsay‘s increasingly prominent role in this franchise’s fortunes. From quarterback directives to a historically bizarre coaching development, the owner has involved himself significantly since the Jacksonville upset. The Jonathan Taylor saga brought Irsay’s meddling to a crisis point, and it has overshadowed the other Colts developments entering the season.

Free agency additions:

Matt Gay, K: Four years, $22.5MM ($10.1MM guaranteed)
Samson Ebukam, DE: Three years, $24MM ($10.76MM guaranteed)
Gardner Minshew, QB: One year, $3.5MM ($3.5MM guaranteed)
Taven Bryan, DT: One year, $3.51MM ($3MM guaranteed)
Chris Lammons, CB: One year, $1.1MM
Isaiah McKenzie, WR: One year, $1.1MM
Jacob Martin, DE: One year, $1.23MM
Al-Quadin Muhammad, DE: One year, $371K (practice squad)
Ronnie Harrison, S: One year, $290K (practice squad)

Other unstable roster and staff components have dwarfed the Colts’ kicker trouble, but the team did not skimp when it came to addressing this troublesome area. Two tours of Chase McLaughlin — as the Adam Vinatieri emergency successor in 2019 and Rodrigo Blankenship‘s replacement last year — did not move Chris Ballard to retain him. Instead, the seventh-year GM authorized the NFL’s second-most lucrative kicker contract to bring over Gay from Los Angeles.

The small gap between Gay and Justin Tucker‘s AAVs ($5.6MM, $6MM) point to the latter being undervalued, but Gay enjoyed the opportunity to hit free agency. As the Rams retooled around league-minimum specialty contracts, Gay will leave one favorable kicker environment for another.

Gay only served as the Rams’ full-time kicker from 2021-22, catching on midway through the 2020 season. But he drilled at least 93% of his field goal tries in each of the past two seasons. This included an 11-for-14 make rate from 50-plus yards. The Colts once fixed their swiftly developing kicker unreliability by replacing Mike Vanderjagt with Vinatieri during the 2006 free agency period. Gay, 29, will be tasked with stopping a revolving door post-Vinatieri.

From a pass-rushing standpoint, Ebukam is a clear downgrade from Yannick Ngakoue. One of the 2021 Colts’ flaws came from the team not sufficiently replacing Justin Houston, leaving Kwity Paye too great a task as a rookie. Paye took a step forward last season, upping his sack (six) and tackle-for-loss totals (10) from his rookie season despite missing five games. The 2021 first-round pick now slides back into the top edge-rushing role for the Colts, with Ebukam a Nick Bosa sidekick for the past two seasons.

Ebukam, 28, has bettered Paye’s QB-hit totals in each of the past two years, combining for 24 as a 49er, but he has never topped five sacks in any of his six seasons — despite playing with Bosa and Aaron Donald throughout that span. A modest statistical resume aside, Ebukam’s 49ers work generated a better market compared to his 2021 post-Rams free agency foray. Among free agent edges, only the Titans’ Arden Key pickup required more guaranteed money ($13MM). Ebukam’s guarantee figure beat out Ngakoue, ex-teammates Leonard Floyd and Charles Omenihu, along with Marcus Davenport and Frank Clark.

The Colts finished with 44 sacks last season; Ngakoue’s 9.5 helped Gus Bradley‘s defense rank in the top half in scoring during a 4-12-1 season. During the year in between Houston and Ngakoue, the Colts totaled 33 sacks. Ballard has come through with many impact starters in the second round of the draft, but he has missed on a few pass rushers. Kemoko Turay, Ben Banogu and Tyquan Lewis have not panned out. The team has a bad track record with this precise investment, with Dayo Odeyingbo (Round 2, 2021) tasked with turning it around. Odeyingbo figures to see more opportunities post-Ngakoue; the Purdue product totaled five sacks and 11 QB hits in his first full season. Martin and perhaps Muhammad, who tallied a career-high six sacks in 2021, will be tasked with aiding a Buckner-reliant pass rush.

Had the Colts carried contender aspirations into this season, they would probably have aimed higher than Minshew. Rather than a bridge option, Minshew has become Anthony Richardson‘s backup. Minshew operating as the bridge to Richardson crumbled quickly, and the former Jaguars and Eagles passer will start another season on the bench.

Shane Steichen coached Minshew for two seasons in Philadelphia, making for an ideal backup — even if Richardson and Minshew’s skillsets are not comparable. Nevertheless, Minshew backed up Jalen Hurts for two seasons and served as a Jaguars regular starter during the previous two. The former sixth-round pick has bucked the odds by making 24 career starts. While he is 8-16 in those games, several of the starts came for a terrible 2020 Jaguars team and one more came in a game featuring Eagles backups and Cowboys starters. Minshew carries a 44-to-15 TD-to-INT ratio into his fifth season and presents a higher floor compared to Richardson as a passer. Though, if the most polished of the Colts’ passers makes any starts this season, something has gone wrong.

Re-signings:

E.J. Speed, LB: Two years, $8MM ($3.92MM guaranteed)
Ashton Dulin, WR: Two years, $7.2MM ($3.5MM guaranteed)
Tyquan Lewis, DL: One year, $2.1MM ($500K guaranteed)
Deon Jackson, RB: One year, $940K

Speed’s re-signing comes a year after the Colts retained Zaire Franklin. With Leonard attached to the second-highest off-ball linebacker salary, the Colts have let both Bobby Okereke and Anthony Walker walk. But Speed and Franklin are still around on lower-middle-class accords. A fifth-round pick out of Division II Tarleton State, Speed worked mostly as a special-teamer from 2019-21 but served as a five-game starter last season. His seven tackles for loss revealed promise, and Okereke’s exit opens the door for more defensive reps alongside Leonard and Franklin.

Leonard battled three injuries last year and underwent two back surgeries in 2022, the second of which ending his abbreviated season early. One of this century’s most productive off-ball ‘backers, Leonard was limited to just three games last year. After playing through that back issue en route to a third first-team All-Pro honor in 2021, Leonard ran into a midcareer crossroads of sorts. He also missed 2022 time due to a concussion and a nose injury. The Colts are not out of the woods yet with Leonard health trouble. The sixth-year veteran suffered a concussion during a joint practice with the Bears, leaving him in the protocol days before Week 1.

Taylor’s placement on the Colts’ reserve/PUP list opens the door for Jackson and others to complement Richardson in the run game. Zack Moss is uncertain to open the season as well, having suffered a broken arm during training camp. Moss is not on IR, however, pointing to a September re-emergence from the 2022 trade acquisition. A former UDFA, Jackson started two games in relief of Taylor last year but finished his season with a 3.5-yard rushing average.

The Colts, who brought in Kareem Hunt last month but did not sign him, signed and then quickly released Kenyan Drake. As it stands now, Jackson and fifth-round rookie Evan Hull represent Indy’s healthy RB options. Going into his fifth season with the Colts, Dulin will not play in 2023. An ACL tear sidelined the veteran backup wide receiver in August.

Notable losses:

Ben Banogu, DE
Rashod Berry, DE (waived)
Parris Campbell, WR
Brandon Facyson, CB
Nick Foles, QB (released)
Matt Haack, P
Dennis Kelly, T
Chase McLaughlin, K
Rodney McLeod, S
Yannick Ngakoue, DE
Bobby Okereke, LB
Matt Pryor, OL
Isaiah Rodgers, CB (waived)
Matt Ryan, QB (released)
Armani Watts, S

For a few days in March 2022, the Colts carried neither a starter-caliber quarterback nor a first-round pick. Irsay demanded Ballard trade Wentz, despite the Colts having given up first- and third-round picks for him in 2021, and the owner was believed to have ordered his GM to finalize the Ryan trade. The Colts’ combined tally for Wentz and Ryan: a first-round pick and two third-rounders for two thirds. While Wentz became a punching bag for Irsay and others, he fared far better than Ryan in Indianapolis. Now with CBS, Ryan appeared at the end of the line in Indy.

The Colts had planned to stop their QB carousel for a bit with Ryan, whom Ballard wanted to start for at least two seasons. Two years remained on Ryan’s Falcons-constructed contract — one the Colts reworked upon acquiring him — but it quickly became apparent the former MVP would not be even a temporary answer in Indianapolis. As the Colts’ O-line struggled to reach its expected form, Ryan took 38 sacks in 12 games and fumbled a career-high 15 times. Irsay again stepped in, instructing Reich to bench Ryan for the unseasoned Sam Ehlinger. Reich reluctantly did so, while believing Ehlinger was unready. After Irsay fired Reich, he gave the OK for interim HC Jeff Saturday to reinstall Ryan as the starter.

In order to avoid injury guarantees ramping up their Ryan dead money by an additional $7.2MM, the Colts benched him again — for Nick Foles — for Week 16. While that was probably Ryan’s final act as an NFL player, Foles appeared a shell of his Eagles version when called upon. Averaging only 5.3 yards per attempt, Foles finished with no touchdown passes and four interceptions. After the former Super Bowl MVP inked a two-year, $6.2MM deal with the Colts, no team has signed the 11-year vet.

Ngakoue is not on a Hall of Fame track and has been viewed as a run-game liability, helping explain him being on team No. 6. But the longtime Bradley pupil continued his impressive streak in Indianapolis. Last season marked Ngakoue’s seventh straight year with at least eight sacks; no NFLer is riding such a streak. The Colts let it be known early in the offseason they were not re-signing Ngakoue, despite retaining Bradley, and he ended up with the Bears on a one-year, $10.5MM contract.

The Giants brought in both Okereke and Campbell, with the former collecting this year’s second-highest linebacker AAV ($10MM) to help a team in dire need to second-level defensive help. Walker’s 2021 exit opened up a three-down spot alongside Leonard, and Okereke capitalized by scoring a quality payday amid a buyer’s market that kept most teams’ ILB payouts low. Okereke is coming off a 151-tackle season. Campbell finally stayed healthy, but his injury history capped his guarantee at $2.9MM.

Campbell delivered a quiet mini-breakthrough last season — as just about everything Colts not pertaining to QB/staff/ownership matters was obscured last season — and is now a Giants starter. Guards should be up among Giants fans, as the former second-round pick missed 34 games from 2019-21. Miraculously, Campbell played all 17 last season.

The Colts’ Eric Fisher and Mark Glowinski replacement plans backfired, accelerating the Ryan-Reich setup’s demise. Both players — Pryor and Danny Pinter — are out of the picture. Pinter suffered an ACL tear last month. It is still a bit surprising a Colts team that took heat for its O-line setup is running back the same quintet — left tackle Bernhard Raimann and right guard Will Fries around the Nelson-Ryan Kelly–Braden Smith core — considering a new staff is in place. Steichen comes from an Eagles team that deployed the NFL’s best O-lines over the past two seasons. The Colts were in contention for that title in the not-so-distant past. They will count on their top three bouncing back. After a rough October night in Denver, Raimann settled down and graded as a top-25 PFF tackle. Ex-Eagle backup Josh Sills, claimed off waivers after cutdown day, is also in place as a swingman.

Detroit served as the epicenter of the NFL’s sprawling gambling crisis, but Indianapolis became a key hub. Rodgers was found to have placed hundreds of bets on NFL games — some of them involving the Colts — over an undisclosed time period. Most of the wagers ranged from $25-$50, but at least one was in four-digit territory. Rodgers joined Jameson Williams and Nicholas Petit-Frere as starters to be punished. While the Lions wideout and Titans right tackle were only popped for six games, as they were not found to have bet on NFL games while on team grounds, Rodgers received an indefinite ban that covers at least a season. Ditto Berry, who only caught on with the Colts in January and did not play in a game.

The Colts took swift action, waiving Rodgers, the team’s three-year kick returner who was on track to keep his starting cornerback job following the Stephon Gilmore trade. The Colts not learning about the NFL’s investigation into Rodgers until after the draft limited their ability to replace him. Rodgers, 25, started nine games last season, recovering four fumbles. The Eagles took a flier on the former sixth-round pick, who must apply for reinstatement in 2024.

Trades:

Dealt CB Stephon Gilmore to Cowboys for 2023 fifth-round pick

Gilmore sure picked an interesting year to stop through Indianapolis. As the Colts’ season morphed into the Donald Glover darkest-timeline moment, Gilmore used the campaign to remind of his standing in the league. PFF slotted the former Patriots All-Pro as a top-10 corner, completing a rebound season at age 32. Gilmore is believed to have asked the Colts to trade him, as he signed up to join a team coming off a seven-Pro Bowler season, and Ballard obliged.

The Colts saved more than $5MM by unloading Gilmore’s two-year, $20MM contract. The former Defensive Player of the Year joins Trevon Diggs in Dallas, which has the ex-New England stopper signed for one more season. With Rodgers and Facyson gone, a host of new faces will join Moore at corner.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 4: Anthony Richardson, QB (Florida) (signed)
Round 2, No. 44 (from Falcons): Julius Brents, CB (Kansas State) (signed)
Round 3, No. 79 (from Commanders): Josh Downs, WR (North Carolina) (signed)
Round 4, No. 106: Blake Freeland, OT (BYU) (signed)
Round 4, No. 110 (from Falcons): Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE (Northwestern) (signed)
Round 5, No. 138: Darius Rush, CB (South Carolina) (signed)
Round 5, No. 158 (from Vikings): Daniel Scott, S (California) (signed)
Round 5, No. 162 (from Bills): Will Mallory, TE (Miami) (signed)
Round 5, No. 176 (from Cowboys): Evan Hull, RB (Northwestern) (signed)
Round 6, No. 211 (from Vikings): Titus Leo, DE (Wagner) (signed)
Round 7, No. 221: Jaylon Jones, CB (Texas A&M) (signed)
Round 7, No. 236 (from Buccaneers): Jake Witt, OT (Northern Michigan) (signed)

After acquiring three veterans in the wake of Luck’s retirement, the Colts came into the offseason hellbent on stopping their QB carousel. They discussed the No. 1 overall pick with the Bears, but those talks were not believed to have been substantial. Instead, Indy appeared to have either conducted a smokescreen operation or happily stood by as rumors depicted their intentions incorrectly.

A run of Colts-Will Levis rumors circulated ahead of the draft. The team did its homework on the Kentucky prospect, who had backers in the building. Ballard and Co., however, kept the Richardson secret effectively. The Colts stopped a potential Seahawks-Richardson partnership from coming to pass at No. 5; Irsay naturally suggested the Colts would have chosen Richardson first overall. Chief personnel exec Morocco Brown had raved about the high-ceiling talent while making near-weekly trips to Gainesville to chart his progress.

Ballard acknowledged the risk of drafting a quarterback with 13 college starts on his resume, and Richardson will be a different type of passer compared to those who have come through Indianapolis during the GM’s seven-year tenure. Irsay also mentioned the uphill battle Richardson faces, and while Minshew was viewed as a bridge for a bit, the owner indicating the prospect needed to play early signaled Young and C.J. Stroud might not be the only rookie QBs given the keys in Week 1. Richardson won the job fairly easily in camp.

Combining an eye-popping athletic profile with unrefined mechanics, Richardson dazzled in his Gators starter season. The Colts’ veteran core makes this a potentially awkward fit, with Richardson likely needing extended developmental time. But Steichen leading the way in turning Jalen Hurts from a player with accuracy questions into an MVP candidate and Super Bowl starter gives Richardson an optimal tutor. Steichen’s pitch to the Colts on developing a young QB helped land him the HC job. Indy is all in on a player who completed 53.8% of his passes last season, and although this might be a bumpy season for the 6-foot-4 dual threat, the Colts will be an entertaining watch. The Ballard front office’s Indianapolis future obviously rides on Richardson putting it together.

The Colts moved down twice in Round 2, adding fourth- and fifth-round picks, and came away with a starting cornerback and a slot receiver with their Day 2 picks. Brents’ path should be of particular interest to most Colts fans, being an Indianapolis native. The first-team All-Big 12 corner is not a lock to start early, with 2022 UDFAs Dallis Flowers (174 defensive snaps as a rookie) and Darrell Baker (zero) positioned ahead of him on a thin depth chart. But the Kansas State alum will be expected to commandeer a job soon.

Downs will be given the chance to develop alongside Richardson, though Isaiah McKenzie — cut and then re-signed last week — is in place as a veteran aid alongside Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. Downs ripped off two 1,000-yard seasons over the past two seasons, excelling with Sam Howell and Drake Maye. Teams viewed the second-generation NFLer as a clean prospect; Downs took no pre-draft visits. At 5-8, Downs does stand to be a bit limited as a slot-only talent.

Other:

Passed on removing Jeff Saturday‘s interim HC tag; hired Shane Steichen
Added Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator; retained DC Gus Bradley
Amid dispute with team, Jonathan Taylor requested trade; RB landed on reserve/PUP list
Shopped C Ryan Kelly in trades

The affable Saturday brought a memorable chapter in interim coach lore, winning his first game and then losing the rest. This, of course, included the record-setting 33-point collapse in Minnesota — one that broke the Reich-quarterbacked Bills’ mark that stood 30 years. This memorable stretch saw two staffers (QBs coach Scott Milanovich, RBs coach Scottie Montgomery) decline play-calling duties, leading the inexperienced Parks Frazier into the role. (Frazier is now back with Reich in Charlotte.) Irsay’s defiance when hiring Saturday against the wishes of Ballard and other staffers wrapped a memorable year for the outspoken owner, and he did not exactly take a step back after that decision backfired.

Ben Johnson, DeMeco Ryans and Dan Quinn backed out of Indy’s search, and this was the only HC-needy franchise not to interview Sean Payton. The Colts’ search extended past the Super Bowl. They joined the Cardinals (Jonathan Gannon) in hiring an Eagles coordinator. January headlines suggested Irsay was not giving up on removing Saturday’s interim tag, despite the Colts reaching one of their franchise low points to close last season, but that talk faded as the search progressed.

Steichen, 38, has about as good of a quarterback-development dossier as a coach could compile in the 2020s. Anthony Lynn‘s final OC with the Chargers, Steichen took over play-calling duties during Rivers’ last Los Angeles season (2019) and unleashed Justin Herbert a year later. Hiring Steichen as his OC in 2021, Nick Sirianni handed him play-calling duties midway through that season. Steichen proceeded to tailor the offense around the run game, and the Eagles both led the NFL in rushing and became the first team since the 1985 Bears to rush for at least 175 yards in seven straight games.

The Colts will hand Steichen a bigger challenge with Richardson, but Hurts morphed from a QB the Eagles were not completely sold on to a player who went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in a Super Bowl. Steichen can become one of this era’s best offensive coaches by turning Richardson into a franchise-caliber quarterback. That will not be an easy mission, but Hurts’ rapid ascent bodes well for this fit.

Bradley joined Steichen on Lynn’s Chargers staff, being the Bolts’ DC from 2017-20. Still only 39, Cooter is five years removed from his Lions OC tenure. Since that three-plus-season stay as Detroit’s play-caller ended, Cooter bounced from the Jets to the Eagles to the Jaguars. The 2021 Steichen overlap, as a Philly consultant, is relevant here.

Steichen and Cooter have not enjoyed the opportunity to coach Taylor just yet, and it is quite possible they will not end up doing so. The Wentz, Ryan, Reich and Saturday decisions displayed Irsay’s willingness to play the lead role in personnel matters; the Taylor matter has not put the second-generation Colts owner in a good light. Taylor, 24, has gone from saying he wanted to be a Colt for life as recently as mid-June to launching a crusade to leave Indiana by late July. A few events are worth noting from this span, but Irsay stoked this fire.

Taylor hired a new agent, Malki Kawa of First Round Management, in late May and observed the RB market nosedive this offseason. The Giants, Raiders and Cowboys respectively franchise-tagging Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard — and then not extending them by the July 17 deadline — prompted a response from Taylor, who took on a more combative persona following the tag deadline fallout. It was not hard to foresee a bleak reality forming for Taylor had he played ball with the Colts, who declined his request for an offseason extension. The prospect of a 2024 franchise tag, keeping him off the market as a narrow earning window began to close, almost definitely drove Taylor to change his approach.

Barkley’s No. 2 draft slot set him up favorably regardless of his future contracts, and Jacobs secured eight figures guaranteed upon being drafted 24th. Taylor is tied to a $7.83MM contract as a former second-rounder. The Wisconsin alum going the other way and playing out his rookie deal would have endeared him to the Colts, but after Irsay’s tweet criticizing running backs for holding meetings about the position’s value decline, the owner pointed to an extension not happening this year. Ballard then cited the team’s 4-12-1 2022 record when asked why no extension would be on tap ahead of Taylor’s contract year.

Taylor, who won the 2021 rushing title by more than 500 yards, is coming off his first notable injury in either college or the pros. Irsay’s one-on-one meeting with Taylor on his bus — and rumors of the team shifting the disgruntled RB from the PUP to the NFI list, which would have threatened his $4.3MM salary — only emboldened the fourth-year veteran, leading to this point.

Undergoing a minimally invasive ankle surgery in January, Taylor appeared to use the recovery as an excuse to stay off the practice field amid this dispute. Irsay proclaimed Taylor ready to roll in mid-July. This hold-in brought multiple Taylor camp exits, and the Colts greenlit trade talks. It is worth wondering how eager the Colts are to execute a trade and whether ownership and the front office are on the same page. Some in the building were believed to be open to moving Taylor amid this dispute, while Irsay immediately said a trade would not happen. The Colts bringing up Jaylen Waddle in their Dolphins talks, after asking for a first-round pick or a picks package equivalent to one, does not signal a willingness to make a deal.

No team has traded a first-rounder for a back since the Ryan Grigson-era Colts gave up one for Trent Richardson in September 2013. With Taylor lacking Christian McCaffrey‘s pass-game impact, it should not be expected that type of package (second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-rounders) is coming Indy’s way, either. Taylor’s aim of an upper-crust RB extension — when no team has even signed a back to a multiyear deal averaging north of $10MM since the Browns’ Nick Chubb pact in July 2021 — further complicates Ballard’s task.

This relationship’s deterioration casts a pall on Steichen’s first season in Indianapolis, with the team’s hopeful Richardson-Taylor partnership on hold due to the team keeping Taylor on the PUP list. Taylor can return to practice after two games, but this feud has shown no signs of slowing down. It will be interesting to see if the Colts reopen trade talks ahead of the actual trade deadline (Oct. 31) after their team-imposed shutdown yielded no satisfactory offer from Miami, Green Bay or any other suitors.

Perhaps tasked with brokering a peace between Irsay and Taylor’s camp, Ballard said this relationship can be salvaged. For now, though, the Colts are paying a probably healthy Taylor not to play. Considering where the RB market went this year, the Taylor impasse provides a fitting conclusion to one of the worst stretches in the position’s history.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

Shaquille Leonard, LB: $19.79MM
Braden Smith, RT: $19MM
DeForest Buckner, DT: $17.25MM
Ryan Kelly, C: $12.38MM
Quenton Nelson, G: $12.2MM
Grover Stewart, DT: $10.88MM
Kenny Moore, CB: $8.19MM
Anthony Richardson, QB: $6.18MM
Mo Alie-Cox, TE: $5.31MM
Samson Ebukam, DE: $5.21MM

Leonard, Moore, Buckner and Co. saw their status as leaders of a playoff nucleus change rapidly, and they are now Pro Bowlers on a rebuilding team — one without its top skill-position player. The Taylor matter will overshadow this Colts season for as long as it lasts, though Richardson’s progress will define this Indy iteration on the field.

While the Texans enter the season in a clear rebuild, the Colts appear trapped between periods. The Ballard-assembled Pro Bowler core residing on Steichen’s first Indy roster stands to provide an advantage for Richardson, who will be the Colts’ seventh Week 1 starting QB in seven seasons. With Indy’s run game potentially set for a major downgrade, how ready will the one-year college starter be to capitalize on it?

10 comments Indianapolis Colts Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

By Sam Robinson | at September 4, 2023 10:00 pm

After expressing quick regret on his initial hire as Panthers owner, David Tepper reversed course and prioritized NFL experience. Carolina bailed midway through Year 3 on Matt Rhule‘s seven-year contract, and despite Steve Wilks‘ admirable job moving the team back into the mix for a division title (albeit in a historically bad NFC South), Frank Reich became the pick.

That move sets the tone for Carolina’s mid-2020s, but the decision Reich, Tepper and GM Scott Fitterer made barely a month later should have a longer-term impact. After a quarterback carousel spun in Charlotte for several seasons, the team did its best to address one of the NFL’s most glaring needs.

Trades:

Sent Bears WR D.J. Moore, Nos. 9 and 61, along with 2024 first-, 2025 second-round pick for No. 1 overall pick

Cam Newton‘s MVP 2015 season turned out to be an aberration; the talented dual-threat option gradually trended down in the years following Carolina’s Super Bowl 50 loss. Toward the end of that late-2010s period, Newton began to break down. Shoulder and foot injuries led to the Panthers cutting bait on his 2015 extension in 2020, but the three-year, $63MM Teddy Bridgewater contract became one of a few stopgap measures that destabilized the team.

Rhule traded Bridgewater in 2021, and the Panthers offered a top-10 pick and their 2020 QB1 for Matthew Stafford in 2021. The Panthers believed they had secured a Stafford trade that winter (though, the then-Lions QB was not too keen on such a move), but the Rams swooping in led to a subsequent trade for Sam Darnold. An injury-plagued Darnold year keyed the Rhule-directed Baker Mayfield push. The Mayfield move only came about after Tepper’s two-offseason pursuit of Deshaun Watson failed. Watson was not big on the Panthers, and they joined the Falcons and Saints in balking at matching the Browns’ fully guaranteed extension offer. Since Newton’s 2018 shoulder injury shut him down, the Panthers have started seven QBs.

This offseason did not turn into a Bryce Young-centric effort immediately. The Panthers pursued Derek Carr, meeting with the nine-year Raiders passer at the Combine — shortly after Carr wielded his no-trade clause to finalize a release. And they were still in those sweepstakes days before going in another direction. But the team shied away from Carr’s $35MM-per-year asking price, clearing the way for the Saints to meet it.

Initially, the Bears were looking at moving from No. 1 to No. 2 to No. 9 — a complex trade that would have given the Texans the top pick and the Panthers the second overall choice. But Houston drifted out of the picture, leading to direct Chicago-Carolina negotiations. Bears GM Ryan Poles asked about Brian Burns and Derrick Brown, but after Fitterer kept the young front-seven pieces out of the trade, Chicago insisted Moore be part of the package. Despite Moore anchoring the Panthers’ receiving corps for most of his five-year Charlotte run, that did not prove a dealbreaker. The Panthers had extended Moore — on a three-year, $61.8MM deal — in March 2022; that contract is now on the Bears’ payroll.

The Panthers needed to include Moore to separate themselves from the other suitors for the pick, making the reluctant decision despite previously turning down a first-rounder (in different trade talks) for their No. 1 wide receiver. Moore, 26, joins Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad as the only three-time 1,100-yard receivers in franchise history. Smith and Muhammad enjoyed better QB stability than Moore, who did not begin his 1,100-yard string until Kyle Allen took over for Newton in 2019.

Carolina also preferred to retain the higher of its two 2023 second-round picks. Rather than move their own choice (No. 38), the Panthers gave the Bears the pick obtained in the Christian McCaffrey deal (No. 61) and a 2025 second. It can be argued the Panthers overprotected their own 2023 second-rounder (which became wideout Jonathan Mingo), keeping it and instead trading No. 61 and a 2025 second.

Regardless of how they stuck the landing, the Panthers made a true QB commitment for the first time since extending Newton in 2015. As a result, Young and Justin Fields‘ careers will be tied together for a while. With Poles and Fitterer boldly completing this trade before free agency, the Panthers carried more certainty going into the market compared to the Bears, who had traded a No. 1 overall pick earlier in an offseason than anyone since the draft moved to April in 1976. It did not take too long before the Panthers’ Young preference circulated.

Free agency additions:

Adam Thielen, WR: Three years, $25MM ($14MM guaranteed)
Miles Sanders, RB: Four years, $25.4MM ($13MM guaranteed)
Hayden Hurst, TE: Three years, $21.75MM ($13MM guaranteed)
Shy Tuttle, DT: Three years, $19.5MM ($13MM guaranteed)
Andy Dalton, QB: Two years, $10MM ($8MM guaranteed)
Vonn Bell, S: Three years, $22.5MM ($7.5MM guaranteed)
Justin Houston, OLB: One year, $6MM ($6MM guaranteed)
D.J. Chark, WR: One year, $5MM ($5MM guaranteed)
DeShawn Williams, DL: One year, $1.75MM ($1.75MM guaranteed)
Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB: One year, $1.32MM ($153K guaranteed)
Troy Hill, CB: One year, $1.27MM ($50K guaranteed)

The Moore trade keyed a receiver reboot in Carolina. After Moore and the then-Robbie Anderson began the past three seasons as the Panthers’ top wideouts, both ended up in trades. The team’s ensuing plan injects more risk into the equation, with Thielen going into his age-33 season and Chark missing sizable chunks of the past two slates due to injuries.

Parting with a number of core contributors to improve their cap situation, the Vikings ditched Thielen after 10 years. The Division II product-turned-rookie-camp body made a stunning ascent to join Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Anthony Carter near the top of all-time Vikings receiving lists, and the Minnesota native enjoyed a market upon being cut. The Broncos and Cowboys were among the teams to pursue Thielen, but the 11th-year pass catcher signed with the Panthers after a visit. The Panthers provided a quality parachute for Thielen, who collected nearly as much guaranteed money as top 2023 receiver UFAs Jakobi Meyers and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($16MM apiece) despite being seven years older than both.

Thielen, whose 30 touchdown receptions since 2020 trail only Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. Granted, Thielen benefited extensively from Justin Jefferson‘s meteoric rise. But the veteran possession receiver should still aid Young as he acclimates to the NFL. This is a true multiyear commitment. In a non-post-June 1 capacity, cutting Thielen would not save the Panthers any money in 2024. Reich and Co. are betting on two solid years from Thielen.

The Lions attempted to re-sign Chark, but he will be part of a third team in three years. The ex-Jaguars second-rounder posted a 1,000-yard season with Gardner Minshew primarily at the controls (2019) and did some field-stretching work for the Lions when available last year. But Chark missed 13 games because of a fractured ankle in 2021 and saw more ankle trouble lead him to IR last season. Chark still averaged 16.7 yards per reception in his Lions one-off — the second-highest total of his career — but the $5MM contract reflects teams’ hesitancy on the injury front. Chark underwent another ankle surgery this offseason; this second “prove it” deal will be pivotal for the LSU alum’s earning power.

Both Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz received the franchise tag last season and have been superior receivers to Hurst during their careers. Hurst, 30, is also two years older than Gesicki and three years older than Schultz. The Panthers nevertheless made another true multiyear commitment. Hurst has one career 500-yard receiving season — a 571-yard showing with the 2020 Falcons — and is coming off a 414-yard slate in Cincinnati. PFF also rated Schultz as a far superior run blocker last season. With the Bengals and Falcons over the past two seasons, Hurst did not exceed nine yards per reception.

The Panthers have not effectively replaced Greg Olsen since his foot trouble keyed a late-2010s decline. They will be making an interesting bet on Hurst doing so, but he and Thielen represent pivotal parts of Young’s first NFL attack.

As you may have heard, the NFL collectively updated its view of running backs. On that note, Sanders was fairly fortunate to land the deal he did. The four-year Eagles starter collected the most guaranteed money of any RB this offseason, though his AAV checked in south of James Conner and Leonard Fournette‘s 2022 pacts. Although Sanders will reunite with ex-Eagles RBs coach Duce Staley, who helped steer him to the Panthers, he is going from perhaps the NFL’s best offensive line to a middling unit. Saquon Barkley‘s Penn State successor is coming off a career-best (by a wide margin) 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. He also has not totaled more than 200 receiving yards in a season since 2019. But there should be some pass-catching upside for the Panthers to explore.

The Eagles limited their RBs’ pass-game work under Jalen Hurts. With Carson Wentz at the helm in 2019, Sanders totaled 509 receiving yards. It should be expected Carolina uses its expected three-down back in the passing game more than Philadelphia did last season. With questions at tight end and wide receiver, the team’s new 5-foot-10 quarterback will likely look to Sanders as an outlet option more than the Eagles did.

Sanders likely would have been unable to fetch this payday had Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard — or perhaps any one of the three — reached free agency rather than being franchise-tagged. Not many teams were eyeing a back at a $6MM-plus salary. But Sanders capitalized, becoming one of the few winners of this bleak RB offseason. He should play a key role in Young’s early development.

With no team coming close to giving a non-Jessie Bates safety what the Falcons offered Bell’s ex-Bengals teammate ($16MM AAV), a market formed between $6-$8MM per year. Bell took what he could get, parlaying a nice run alongside Bates in Cincinnati into another midlevel deal. This is Bell’s second three-year accord; he signed an $18MM contract with the Bengals in 2020. His Panthers pact did not mark much of an improvement, and Carolina has its highest-paid safety tied to an average salary outside the top 15 at the position.

A former Saints second-round pick, Bell was one of the league’s steadiest safeties under Lou Anarumo in Cincy. He missed only one game due to injury as a Bengal and rated as a top-35 safety, per PFF, in each of his three Ohio-based seasons. Excelling in run support, Bell was instrumental to the Bengals’ defensive turnaround. He also intercepted four passes last season, and his overtime INT of Patrick Mahomes in the 2021 AFC championship game set up the Bengals sealing their first Super Bowl berth in 33 years.

The Bengals attempted to re-sign their three-year starter but set a lower price ceiling, due to Bell’s age (29 in December). Bell will team with Xavier Woods and Jeremy Chinn in Carolina, though the latter — whose role has fluctuated since Rhule chose him in the 2020 second round — is expected to play more in the slot this season.

Not all of Rhule’s decisions backfired. Reuniting with ex-Temple recruit Haason Reddick continued the pass rusher’s midcareer breakout. The Panthers, as it turned out, should have made a stronger effort to re-sign the former Rhule college charge. Reddick elevated his game to new heights in Philly, and the Panthers did not effectively replace him. Brian Burns still fared well in 2022, but he lacked support. Carolina passed on an oft-rumored veteran edge rusher addition last year; Reich’s regime did not make that mistake. After leading the Ravens in sacks in each of the past two years, Houston is set to complement Burns.

Combining for 49 QB pressures and 14 sacks from 2021-22, Houston represents a significant upgrade alongside Burns. Houston’s 9.5-sack 2022 slate earned him nearly twice the guaranteed money the Ravens gave him last year; the ex-Chiefs All-Pro doing this at 34 is no small accomplishment. Houston has also shaken off the injury struggles that plagued the back half of his Kansas City tenure, missing just five games in the four seasons since his Missouri exit. The Panthers viewed Yannick Ngakoue as too pricey, but Houston represents a solid get as well.

Because the Panthers made their trade for the No. 1 pick before free agency, Dalton did not arrive under any misconception. The journeyman would be backing up whomever Carolina drafted. This differs from the situation with the Bears two seasons ago, when the team chose Fields a month after signing Dalton. Still, the former Bengals cornerstone replaced Jameis Winston in Week 4 of last season and never gave up the job. Going into his age-36 season, Dalton used that Saints campaign to collect the most guaranteed money on a QB2 deal this offseason.

Re-signings:

Bradley Bozeman, C: Three years, $18MM ($10MM guaranteed)
Eddy Pineiro, K: Two years, $4.1MM ($2.25MM guaranteed)
J.J. Jansen, LS: One year, $1.32MM ($553K guaranteed)
Henry Anderson, DL: One year, $1.32MM ($153K guaranteed)

Once Austin Corbett comes off the reserve/PUP list, Young will play behind the rare offensive line to return all five starters from last season. Bozeman was the group’s only free agent, and the Panthers locked him down early in free agency. While Bozeman scoring only a one-year, $2.8MM deal in 2022 surprised, Pat Elflein beating out the ex-Ravens starter signaled a bit of a career crossroads for the Alabama alum. Once Elflein’s injury trouble intervened six games into last season, Bozeman capitalized.

The 28-year-old blocker started the Panthers’ final 11 games, and PFF ranked him as an upper-echelon run blocker. Though, the advanced metrics site did not view Bozeman as a plus pass protector. Even with Reich installing a new offense, the team took care of the Rhule-era investment. As they did with Bell, the Panthers took advantage of a midlevel market forming at center. Bozeman joined a handful of other snappers whose contracts settled in between $4-$6MM per year. These low asking prices allowed a number of teams to ensure center continuity by re-signing their respective pivots.

Last season, Jansen passed John Kasay for the most games played by a Panther. The 15th-year long snapper, 37, enters this season at 226. Jansen was expected to send his snaps to Zane Gonzalez last season, but after a 2022 preseason injury, Gonzalez went on IR to lead to a late-summer Pineiro pickup. The Panthers had signed Gonzalez to a multiyear deal, but Pineiro seized the 2023 job by making 33 of 35 field goal tries last season. This included an impressive 13-for-14 accuracy rate from between 40 and 49 yards. 2023 will be the former Bears and Jets specialist’s first time kicking for the same team in consecutive seasons.

Notable losses:

Sean Chandler, S
Matt Corral, QB (waived)
Sam Darnold, QB
Jacob Eason, QB (waived)
Pat Elflein, OL
D’Onta Foreman, RB
Zane Gonzalez, K (released)
Rashard Higgins, WR
Matthew Ioannidis, DL
Cory Littleton, LB
Andre Roberts, WR
Bravvion Roy, DL (waived)
P.J. Walker, QB
Damien Wilson, LB (released)

Nos. 5-7 on the Panthers’ post-Newton QB1 list are gone, with Darnold and Walker following Mayfield out of North Carolina. And Eason, who made a brief cameo last season, did not make it to training camp. Corral did, and Reich expressed interest in keeping the 2022 third-rounder on the practice squad. The Patriots intervened, removing that from the equation. Corral wraps his Panthers run after two training camps, the second of which coming after an extensive Lisfranc rehab odyssey. Three years remain on the Ole Miss developmental prospect’s rookie contract.

As they kept swinging for young veteran arms, the Panthers gave up three draft choices — including a 2022 second-rounder — for Darnold in 2021 and picked up his fully guaranteed $18.9MM fifth-year option. While the former No. 3 overall pick has landed in San Francisco and beat out Trey Lance for the backup job, injuries posed a problem in Carolina. Darnold, who missed time due to health issues in each of his Jets seasons, suffered a cracked scapula midway through a rough 2021 season and began last year on IR due to a high ankle sprain.

Darnold, 26, eventually replaced Mayfield and finished the season as the team’s starter. While the USC product displayed improvement, the Panthers did not exactly roll out a high-octane offense after benching Mayfield. Darnold threw for 341 yards and three TDs in Week 17, but the Panthers blew a 14-point lead against the Buccaneers, creating a Tom Brady last-hurrah scene. Darnold then went 5-for-15 for 43 yards in Week 18. He discussed a new deal with the team, but it did not appear those talks progressed too far.

Foreman at least has played a supporting role in 2023’s running back devaluation process. Out of football for the better part of two seasons, Foreman returned as a viable Derrick Henry injury fill-in during the Titans’ push for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in 2021. After the Panthers traded McCaffrey, Foreman stepped in and managed 914 rushing yards despite logging just 12 carries in the Panthers’ first seven games. It only took a one-year, $2MM deal for the Bears to sign Foreman, illustrating this year’s buyer’s market and the new Panthers staff’s desire to move in a new direction. Chuba Hubbard, who improved to 4.9 yards per tote last season, remains in place as a backup option.

The number of Panthers familiar with the Temple fight song has reached a dangerously low level. After as many as eight ex-Owls populated Carolina’s roster under Rhule, the exits of Ioannidis and Wilson drop the number to one Temple alum here. RFA Sam Franklin is the only one left. This was not a good offseason for Rhule’s guys.

Extensions and restructures:

LB Shaq Thompson agreed to pay cut in exchange for 2023 guarantees
Restructured T Taylor Moton‘s contract, creating $11MM-plus in cap space
Created $5.79MM in cap space by restructuring G Austin Corbett‘s deal
Created $2.88MM in cap space by restructuring TE Ian Thomas‘ contract

Thompson, 29, is the only Panther starter left from Super Bowl 50. The one-time Luke Kuechly–Thomas Davis protégé has started 106 games and made a career-best 135 tackles last season. But the off-ball linebacker market dipped this year. Thompson’s pay reduction likely contributed to that. Given a four-year, $54.43MM extension in December 2019, Thompson’s deal still runs through 2024. But his AAV has dropped from $13.6MM to $6.3MM. The latter number is in line with several ILB deals agreed to this offseason. Thompson received some additional security, securing $8.5MM in guarantees after none remained on his previous contract, in exchange for the reduction.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 1 (from Bears): Bryce Young, QB (Alabama) (signed)
Round 2, No. 39: Jonathan Mingo, WR (Ole Miss) (signed)
Round 3, No. 80 (from Steelers): D.J. Johnson, DE (Oregon) (signed)
Round 4, No. 114: Chandler Zavala, G (North Carolina State) (signed)
Round 5, No. 145: Jammie Robinson, S (Florida State) (signed)

Once the Panthers obtained the top pick, Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson loomed as options. Richardson did not look to advance to the finals of this rather important scouting search. A Reich preference for a taller quarterback looked to work in Stroud’s favor, but by early April, Young had seized command here. Reich and the Panthers’ scouting staff separately investigated this year’s QB class, and both came to similar conclusions. Despite Young’s size, he would be the pick.

The Texans appeared quite interested in the 5-10 Alabama alum, leading to the team’s discussions with the Bears about moving from No. 2 to No. 1. But the Panthers will give the undersized passer a try. Young displayed tremendous poise with the Crimson Tide, excelling in both his starter seasons. Targeting the likes of Jameson Williams and John Metchie in 2021, Young claimed the Heisman trophy. After the Crimson Tide’s receiver situation worsened in 2022, Nick Saban‘s team did not attempt as many passes. Young posted a 47-7 TD-INT ratio as a redshirt freshman, but his yards-per-attempt figure as a sophomore (8.8) was barely down from his stratospheric Heisman slate (8.8).

Kyler Murray has flashed as a diminutive former No. 1 pick, but Young does not bring the Cardinals QB’s elusiveness, adding intrigue to the Panthers’ decision. Young topped out at 185 rushing yards in a season in Tuscaloosa, and while he is far from a statuesque option under center, he will not provide Carolina with a similar rushing dimension to compensate for size limitations. Although Young weighed 204 pounds at the Combine, he was believed to have played at around 190 in college.

Viewed as a high-caliber processor as well, scoring higher than Stroud or Richardson on the S2 cognition test, Young adds to Saban’s sudden QB factory’s NFL footprint. He follows Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts as starters. For Reich, this stops a revolving door of veterans at the position. Andrew Luck‘s retirement led to Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan one-year stays. Reich played a lead role in bringing Rivers and Wentz to Indianapolis. Profile- and age-wise, Young presents a different type of project for Reich. But the former Eagles OC did play a significant role in Wentz soaring to the MVP perch (before his ACL tear) in 2017 — heights he never approached again.

In identifying a potential long-term Young target, the Panthers also looked to a program that had produced recent options at the position. Mingo follows A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf and Elijah Moore into the NFL. The latest Ole Miss-produced second-round wideout brings a physical presence to the position, weighing 220 pounds. The Panthers are banking on Mingo’s upside, as he produced only one 400-plus-yard season in college (an 861-yard 2022 showing). But Mingo earned a starting job out of camp. While Thielen and Chark are stopgaps, the Panthers have Mingo positioned as the only true Moore heir apparent option on the team.

Other:

Hired Frank Reich as head coach, passing on keeping interim HC Steve Wilks
Hired Thomas Brown as OC; Broncos let Ejiro Evero out of contract, leading to DC hire
Picked up DT Derrick Brown‘s $11.67MM fifth-year option, declined CB C.J. Henderson‘s $11.51MM option
Team continues to discuss extension with OLB Brian Burns
Added Jim Caldwell, Josh McCown, Dom Capers, Parks Frazier to coaching staff
Brought in Cardinals exec Adrian Wilson as VP of player personnel
Todd Wash, DeAngelo Hall join Evero’s defensive staff
Matt Rhule sued Panthers over severance pay
Placed G Austin Corbett on reserve/PUP list

Tepper’s aim of hiring an offense-oriented coach, an increasingly common ownership practice in recent years, surfaced early this offseason. Wilks effectively rebounded from his 3-13 Cardinals season by guiding the Panthers to a 6-6 mark and bringing them to the cusp of a stunning division title. But Wilks’ defense folded in a Week 17 do-or-die game in Tampa, helping the Bucs limp into the playoffs. Wilks has since landed in a prime spot, succeeding DeMeco Ryans as 49ers DC.

Early buzz pointed to Lions OC Ben Johnson having a legitimate opportunity to land the gig, but the young coordinator hopped off the HC carousel early. Ryans turned down an interview, while Sean Payton — who did interview — was always more closely tied to the Broncos. Three years after Tepper splurged for a college rebuilder, he chose Reich, who was only in the mix for one of the five NFL vacancies.

Reich, 61, has been either an NFL head coach or offensive coordinator for nine seasons. Jim Irsay‘s actions over the past year-plus reveal a rather difficult working environment for the Colts’ football-ops honchos, though Tepper has not cultivated a great reputation as an NFL owner so far, either. After being one of the Panthers’ 1995 expansion-draft choices, the former veteran quarterback will attempt to lead a recovery effort.

Following a surprising 2018 Colts playoff season, Luck’s stunning retirement changed Reich’s Indy trajectory. While the Colts’ fortunes dimmed, Reich (40-33-1 as a head coach) still elevated them back to the playoffs in 2020 — with a 39-year-old Rivers at the helm — and had Wentz at 27 TD passes and seven INTs in 2021. A colossal Week 18 letdown in Jacksonville, knocking a two-touchdown favorite out of the playoffs, pushed Reich to the hot seat in Indy. He will have a bit of time to build something in Carolina, though after Rhule had final say during his HC tenure, Fitterer now holds that responsibility.

Evero led the way in offseason meetings, interviewing for all five available HC positions. The Colts and Texans interviewed Evero twice. The ex-Thomas Brown Rams coworker became the rare HC candidate from a 5-12 team. As Nathaniel Hackett‘s offense cratered, the Broncos stayed in many games thanks to Evero’s defense. Denver still finished in the top 10 in defensive DVOA despite trading Bradley Chubb and seeing multiple key starters miss substantial portions of the season with injuries. The Broncos attempted to make it work with Evero and Payton, but the team eventually let the Hackett ally out of his contract. Despite Denver’s disastrous 2022 form, few coaches’ stock climbed more than Evero’s last year.

Identified by Reich as a future play-caller, Brown has made the jump from South Carolina running backs coach (2019) to NFL OC in less than four years. Sean McVay heaped praise on his former running backs and tight ends coach, and he took multiple OC meetings and an HC interview (with the Texans) this offseason.

As Tepper adroitly stated this offseason, no salary cap is in place for coaches. Attached to a three-year deal, Evero will make more than $3MM per season. Tepper also greenlit the Panthers hiring McCown, Caldwell, Capers and Wash. Caldwell and Capers bring a combined 53 years of NFL coaching experience, with Capers back in Carolina after being the franchise’s first HC (1995-98). Wash was the Jaguars’ DC for five years. McCown interviewed for the Texans’ HC job in 2021 and 2022; this will be the longtime QB’s first opportunity to impress as a coach. Young progressing quickly could fast-track McCown, who has generated buzz as a future HC.

The Panthers have been targeting a Burns extension for over a year now. Most teams prefer to wait until the offseason before a player’s fifth-year option campaign to ink an extension, but the Panthers and Burns have been at this since at least June without a deal in place.

Burns, 25, has been Carolina’s top pass rusher throughout his career and is coming off a second Pro Bowl season. He was initially believed to be targeting top-five edge rusher money, which is now beyond $24MM per year, but may now be aiming higher. While Burns has some grounds to do so, despite a limited resume compared to the game’s top-flight edge rushers, a lack of progress has led to a course change. Burns is now holding in.

It is certainly possible Burns’ camp is waiting for a final negotiating session following Nick Bosa‘s 49ers deal, which will raise the DE/OLB ceiling. But time is running out. Burns brings the leverage of the Panthers having rejected a two-first-rounder Rams offer for him and the team successfully keeping him out of the Bears trade. As they go down to the wire with Burns, the Panthers have Brown signed through 2024. His re-up talks are likely coming next year.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

Brian Burns, OLB: $16MM
Shaq Thompson, ILB: $14.1MM
Taylor Moton, RT: $13.53MM
Derrick Brown, DL: $7.52MM
Donte Jackson, CB: $7.48MM
Bryce Young, QB: $6.9MM
Ikem Ekwonu, LT: $6.27MM
Jaycee Horn, CB: $5.76MM
Frankie Luvu, LB: $5.47MM
Austin Corbett, G: $5.16MM

Of this year’s three top-five QB draftees, Young’s roadmap to a division title appears the friendliest. This is mostly because the NFC South produced four sub-.500 records last season and features four teams with big questions. While Young’s height and the skill-position talent the Panthers have assembled around him invite scrutiny, the team returns its starting O-line and made a number of high-profile staff additions. The Panthers kept their young defensive pieces out of trades in 2022 and ’23 as well. This will be a multi-offseason project for Fitterer and Reich, but it would not shock if the Panthers were in the playoff mix during Young’s rookie year.

6 comments Carolina Panthers Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: New York Jets

By Ben Levine | at September 4, 2023 9:59 pm

As aggressive New York Jets offseason saw the organization accelerate its timeline to 2023. While the 2022 iteration of the team had some warts, the Jets also showed significant progress during Robert Saleh‘s second season at the helm. The Jets had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, and with other promising young players up and down the roster, the Jets pushed their chips to the middle of the table.

After having received some of the worst QB play in the league during the 2022 campaign, the team made it a mission to improve the position in 2023. Gang Green improved it in a big way, acquiring a future Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers. The four-time MVP immediately adds credibility to an organization that’s desperate for respect, and it firmly puts the Jets on the playoff (if not Super Bowl) radar.

The Jets capitalized on their inexpensive core players by not only acquiring Rodgers. The team also brought in a number of championship-hungry veterans, including a number of Rodgers’ former Green Bay teammates. These transactions should be enough to guide the Jets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, but will it be enough to push them to the promised land?

Trades:

Acquired QB Aaron Rodgers, fifth-round pick from Packers for 2o23 first-round swap, a second-round pick, a conditional 2024 second-rounder and 2023 sixth-round pick
Traded WR Elijah Moore, 2023 third-round pick to the Browns for 2023 second-round pick
Traded WR Denzel Mims, 2025 seventh-round pick to the Lions for conditional 2025 sixth-round pick
Acquired S Chuck Clark from the Ravens for 2024 seventh-round pick

At one point, Zach Wilson was the crown jewel of the Jets’ rebuild. With GM Joe Douglas having loaded up on draft picks, Wilson was going to be the leader of an organically built squad. In natural Jets fashion, the BYU product failed to live up to expectations, leading the front office to look elsewhere at the position this offseason.

While the recent NFL team-building strategy has focused on spending around a rookie-contract QB, the Jets were in the unique position of having top-end rookie-level contracts elsewhere on the roster. Instead of restarting at the position via the draft, Douglas and Co. were motivated to compete now, and that was reflected in their rumored interest in many of the league’s available veteran quarterbacks.

The Jets briefly flirted with Derek Carr before focusing their attention to the biggest name on the market: Aaron Rodgers. The Packers legend was clearly done in Green Bay and was considering his options, which included retirement. While Rodgers was still under contract with the Packers, he treated his decision like a pseudo-free agency, and he eventually declared his intention to play for the Jets.

After a month of negotiations, the veteran was traded to New York in a deal that ultimately netted Green Bay an improved 2023 first-round selection, a 2023 second-rounder and, in all likelihood, a 2024 first. Rodgers only needs to play 65% of the Jets’ 2023 offensive snaps for the Packers to collect a 2024 first. Suffice to say, the Packers did far better for Rodgers than they did when they sent Brett Favre to the Jets 15 years ago. That deal only ended up bringing the Pack a third-rounder.

Rodgers had one of his weakest seasons in 2022, putting together one of his lowest TD% (4.8) and one of his highest INT rates (2.2%) while finishing with the third losing record in his career (8-9). Of course, this would still be a massive improvement for the Jets’ offense, and Rodgers is only a year removed from back-to-back MVPs. Even if you no longer consider Rodgers one of the top QBs in the league, it appears he has enough in the tank for his age-40 season.

The Jets weren’t done wheeling and dealing, with the front office moving on from a pair of former second-round WRs. Elijah Moore took a step back during his second season in the NFL, finishing with 446 receiving yards (vs. 538 as a rook) and one score (vs. five touchdowns). With the Jets adding a number of receivers to the roster (which we’ll get to below), Moore’s role with the organization was even more uncertain.

The team ended up finding a taker, sending Moore to Cleveland. Moore had requested a trade last season, and while the Jets refused to move him at that point, they were more open to doing so with Rodgers and new wideouts onboard.

Mims was drafted a year before Moore but showed less through his three seasons in the NFL, hauling in a total 42 receptions for 676 yards. He was traded to the Lions for a conditional late-round pick. Detroit has since cut the wideout.

The Jets acquired Chuck Clark with the hope he’d play an important role on their secondary. The veteran only missed one start for the Ravens over the past three seasons, averaging around 92 tackles per season. Unfortunately, the March acquisition tore his ACL in June, ending his season before it even began. Clark’s injury ultimately led to the team’s signing of safety Adrian Amos.

Extensions and restructures:

Signed QB Aaron Rodgers to two-year extension worth $75MM guaranteed
Signed DT Quinnen Williams to a four-year, $96MM ($66MM guaranteed)
Gave defensive end Carl Lawson pay cut, opening $12.7MM in cap space

Rodgers was attached to an untenable $107.5MM bill for the 2024 season, so the Jets made sure to adjust his contract upon completion of their trade with the Packers. The team ended up locking Rodgers into a two-year deal with $75MM guaranteed, a significant drop from the $100MM guaranteed he was set to see over the next two seasons. The contract also includes a nonguaranteed $37.5MM bill for 2025.

Despite indicating he was 90% retired earlier this year, Rodgers has stated a desire to continue playing beyond the 2023 season. His extension certainly increases the chances that he’ll be under center for the 2024 campaign (and without the hefty charge he was set to have under his ripped-up pact).

Elsewhere, the Jets are counting on Quinnen Williams to continue his rapid rise. After collecting 13 sacks between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the defensive tackle showed off his top-three-pick pedigree in 2022, finishing with 12 sacks and 28 QB hits en route to a first-team All-Pro nod. The Jets rewarded the breakthrough season. Williams’ new deal ultimately slid in ahead of the other 2019 D-tackle draftees who had signed lucrative offseason deals. Both Williams and the Titans’ Jeffery Simmons secured more guaranteed money than Aaron Donald.

Carl Lawson helped the Jets carve out some extra space by reworking his expiring contract. The veteran agreed to a new deal partially tied to incentives. Lawson started all 17 games during his first season with the Jets and is expected to be a key defensive lineman in 2023. The Rodgers, Williams and Lawson agreements created significant cap space for the Jets.

Free agency additions:

Allen Lazard, WR: Four years, $44MM ($22MM guaranteed)
Dalvin Cook, RB: One year, $7MM ($5.8MM guaranteed)
Mecole Hardman, WR: One year, $4.5MM ($3.58MM guaranteed)
Wes Schweitzer, OL: Two years, $5MM ($3.16MM guaranteed)
Quinton Jefferson, DL: One year, $3.6MM ($2.75MM guaranteed)
Adrian Amos, S: One year, $1.75MM (fully guaranteed)
Thomas Morstead, P: One year, $1.3MM ($1.09MM guaranteed)
Billy Turner, OL: One year, $3.15MM ($1MM guaranteed)
Al Woods, DT: One year, $2.25MM ($1MM guaranteed)
Randall Cobb, WR : One year, $3MM ($250K guaranteed)

Rodgers made sure he did not come to New York alone. Before the Jets even finalized their latest QB trade with the Packers, the team added one of Rodgers’ preferred Green Bay options in Allen Lazard. After averaging 36 catches for 480 yards through the 2019 and 2021 seasons, Lazard became one of Rodgers’ favorite targets in 2022, hauling in 60 receptions for 788 yards and six touchdowns. Pro Football Focus has also graded Lazard as one of the league’s top blocking WRs in recent years, making him a dependable option even if he’s not the focal point of the offense.

The Jets also brought in longtime Rodgers favorite Randall Cobb, who spent the past two seasons back in Green Bay following brief stops in Dallas and Houston. Rodgers wasn’t nearly as reliant on the wide receiver as he was during the former second-round pick’s first Packers stint, but he’s still been peppered with 89 targets in 25 games between 2021 and 2022. Cobb’s value may come on the sideline as a mentor of sorts, especially with the Jets rostering a pair of UDFA wideouts in Jason Brownlee and Xavier Gipson.

The team’s non-Packers-related addition at receiver was Mecole Hardman, who spent the first four seasons of his career in Kansas City. The former second-round pick seemed to be building to a bigger role with Patrick Mahomes heading into 2022, but he was ultimately limited to 25 catches for 297 yards and four touchdowns. Hardman will likely slide in behind Lazard and star wideout Garrett Wilson on the depth chart, and he’s also set to serve as the team’s top returner.

The team made its biggest-name free agent signing during the preseason, adding Dalvin Cook to their running backs room. The veteran was a popular name on the free agent circuit after being released by the Vikings in May, and he ultimately landed in New York as a complement to second-year RB Breece Hall. The younger RB, of course, is coming off a torn ACL, and Cook’s addition means the team does not need to be as reliant on its burgeoning star.

The veteran still proved to be plenty productive during his final season in Minnesota, finishing with 1,468 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. Cook, 28, is also the only player with more than 1,100 rushing yards in each of the past four seasons. The Jets have the luxury of managing both their stars’ workloads, but it will be interesting to see who the team leans on in crucial moments when both are healthy.

To top off their offensive additions, the Jets added a pair of backup offensive linemen. This includes former (you guessed it) Packers starter Billy Turner, who started all 43 of his appearances in Green Bay between 2019 and 2021. He was limited to eight games (seven starts) in Denver last season thanks to a knee injury, and Pro Football Focus graded him 70th among 81 qualifying offensive tackles. Still, the 31-year-old provides a veteran presence behind an unreliable starting unit. Turner has now followed Nathaniel Hackett from Green Bay to Denver to the Big Apple. Wes Schweitzer also comes with starting experience, with the veteran having started 60 games across six seasons. He most recently started six of his seven games for Washington in 2022.

On the defensive side, the Jets used free agency to add depth to a unit that made a dramatic improvement in 2022. Al Woods is likely destined for the biggest role to start the season, and the veteran defensive tackle brings with him a long resume. The 2010 fourth-round pick has 155 career regular-season appearances under his belt, including 14 starts with the Seahawks in 2022.

Adrian Amos comes over from Green Bay, where he didn’t miss a start over the past four seasons. A starter throughout his eight-year career in Green Bay and Chicago, Amos will begin his Jets tenure as a backup to Jordan Whitehead and Tony Adams. The latter beat out the would-be Clark replacement for the job alongside Whitehead. Quinton Jefferson will serve as an important depth piece on the Jets’ D-line. The 30-year-old started three of his 17 appearances for the Seahawks in 2022, but he started all 17 games for the Raiders in 2021.

On special teams, the Jets added veteran Thomas Morstead. The former Pro Bowler has 14 years of punting experience, most recently with the Dolphins in 2022.

Re-signings:

Quincy Williams, LB: Three years, $18MM ($9MM guaranteed)
Thomas Hennessy, LS: Four years, $5.97MM ($2.63MM guaranteed)
Solomon Thomas, DL: One year, $3.9MM ($1.9MM guaranteed)
Greg Zuerlein, K: One year, $2.6MM ($1.75MM guaranteed)
Connor McGovern, C: One year, $1.92MM ($1.25MM guaranteed)

The Jets re-signed a handful of veterans, including dependable starters on both sides of the ball. Connor McGovern will be back in New York for a fourth season with the organization, with the veteran having started all 48 of his appearances since 2020. He’ll be snapping to Aaron Rodgers in 2023, although he does have some versatility if things get fishy elsewhere on the offensive line. Despite this deal checking in well south of his initial Jets pact (three years, $27MM), McGovern is ticketed to stick as New York’s starting pivot, beating out Schweitzer and second-round rookie Joe Tippmann.

On defense, the team brought back linebacker Quincy Williams, the older brother of Quinnen. A former third-round pick, Quincy disappointed in Jacksonville but has turned it around in New York. Through two seasons with the Jets, the linebacker has compiled 216 tackles and five sacks. He’ll slot in as the strongside linebacker next to Jamien Sherwood and C.J. Mosley.

Solomon Thomas is back after getting into a third of the Jets’ defensive snaps in 2022. Thomas, whom the 49ers chose third overall in 2017, has now played under Saleh in six of his seven NFL seasons. Going into his 12th season, Greg Zuerlein is also back after having served as the team’s primary kicker in 2022.

Notable losses:

Kwon Alexander, LB
Braxton Berrios, WR (released)
Corey Davis, WR (stepping away from football)
George Fant, OT
Dan Feeney, OL
Joe Flacco, QB
Nate Herbig, G
Ty Johnson, RB (re-signed and later released)
Lamarcus Joyner, S
Braden Mann, P (waived)
Cedric Ogbuehi, OT (re-signed and later released)
Will Parks, DB (released)
Sheldon Rankins, DL
James Robinson, RB
Nate Shepherd, DL
Jeff Smith, WR
Mike White, QB

Thanks to their busy offseason, the Jets also bid adieu to a number of veterans up and down the roster. Fortunately for the Jets, none of these subtractions left significant holes on the roster.

The team’s most notable loss was the most recent, as receiver Corey Davis announced that he’d be stepping away from football. There were high expectations when the Jets signed Davis to a three-year, $37.5MM contract back in 2021. The former No. 5 overall pick underwhelmed through two injury-plagued seasons in New York, hauling in 66 catches for 1,028 yards and two touchdowns in 22 games. Davis landed in trade and release rumors throughout the offseason but appeared destined for at least a WR3 role after the team cleared out some depth. With Davis stepping away, the team will be forced to lean more on offseason additions Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb.

Elsewhere on offense, Joe Flacco and Mike White are gone after combining for eight starts under center in 2022. The team moved on from a handful of offensive linemen, including Cedric Ogbuehi, who the team re-signed and later cut. The outgoing linemen also include Nate Herbig and George Fant, who combined for 18 starts in 2022. Fant had been a three-year starter for the Jets, at left and right tackle, helping the team during its lengthy stretch without Mekhi Becton. Fant signed with the Texans during training camp.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets lost a trio of starters. After being limited to only one game in 2021, Lamarcus Joyner bounced back in 2022, starting all 14 of his appearances while finishing with 57 tackles and three interceptions. After starting only three games during his first season in New York, Sheldon Rankins started all 15 of his appearances in 2022, compiling 43 tackles and three sacks. Kwon Alexander had a productive lone season in New York, with the linebacker contributing 69 tackles and a half-sack. Rankins joined the other recent ex-49ers DC to land an HC job — DeMeco Ryans — in Houston, while Alexander landed in Pittsburgh.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 15 (from Packers): Will McDonald, DE (Iowa State)
Round 2, No. 43: Joe Tippmann, C (Wisconsin)
Round 4, No. 120 (from Steelers through Patriots): Carter Warren, OT (Pittsburgh)
Round 5, No. 143: Israel Abanikanda, RB (Pittsburgh)
Round 6, No. 184 (from Raiders through Patriots): Zaire Barnes, LB (Western Michigan)
Round 6, No. 204 (from Cowboys through Raiders): Jarrick Bernard-Converse, CB (LSU)
Round 7, No. 220 (from Cardinals through Raiders): Zack Kuntz, TE (Old Dominion)

After loading up on picks in recent drafts, the Jets left the 2023 NFL Draft with only a pair of top-100 players. The organization reportedly eyed tackle Broderick Jones in the first round, prompting the Steelers to trade one spot ahead of the Jets (via the Patriots). But when the position dried up, the Jets pivoted to the reliable “best player available.”

That proved to be Iowa State defensive end Will McDonald. The pass rusher looked to be one of the best defensive prospects heading into the 2022 campaign after compiling 22 sacks and 26 tackles for loss during the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In 2022, he was limited to five sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss, partially hurting his draft stock.

Still, his overall body of work was enough for the Jets to select him with the 15th overall pick. The Jets have a deep defensive line, so the first-round pick will likely spend his rookie campaign working as a rotational pass-rushing option behind Lawson, John Franklin-Myers and 2022 first-rounder Jermaine Johnson.

The team filled its OL need in the second round upon selecting Wisconsin center Joe Tippmann. The lineman does not posses the versatility the organization probably envisioned from one of its O-line draft picks, but he should be a dependable option if something happens to Connor McGovern (while presumably serving as the heir apparent). The Jets also grabbed a lineman with their third selection, which came in the fourth round. Carter Warren will be stashed on injured reserve to start the season while he recovers from a meniscus tear. If activated, Warren probably will not see a significant role on the offensive line.

Other:

Parted ways with Mike LaFleur; Nathaniel Hackett hired as offensive coordinator,
Todd Downing hired as passing game coordinator
Declined T Mekhi Becton’s $12.57MM fifth-year option

Aaron Rodgers‘ influence with the Jets also extended to the coaching staff. The Jets conducted an expansive search to replace ousted offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, and the team ended up landing on Rodgers’ former coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett.

While Hackett did not have play-calling duties during his three seasons as Packers offensive coordinator, he still earned high marks from Rodgers and Co. for his work with the offense, especially the quarterbacks. Hackett, of course, ended up being hired to be the Broncos’ head coach last offseason, leading to disastrous results. After starting the season 4-11, Denver dismissed Hackett, making him just the third head coach since the AFL-NFL merger to be canned before completing his first season.

Much of the coaching praise or blame would be placed on Robert Saleh in New York, but Hackett still faces immense pressure heading into the 2023 campaign.

The Jets also made some additional changes to their offensive coaching staff, adding Todd Downing to serve as their passing game coordinator. The 42-year-old coach was fired by the Titans after spending two seasons as the team’s offensive coordinator. Downing was arrested for DUI in November of last year, helping lead to his Tennessee dismissal.

The Jets will be counting on a bounce-back season from Mekhi Becton, and the offensive lineman will be playing as an impending free agent after having his fifth-year option declined. The 2020 first-round pick has been limited to only one game over the past two seasons thanks to two knee injuries. The Jets are done counting on Becton as their left tackle, but they do have him set to start at right tackle — despite the barbs he lobbed at the coaching staff for moving him there last year — heading into the campaign. Injury concerns flood the Jets’ tackle situation ahead of Rodgers’ debut, with the soon-to-be 38-year-old Duane Brown coming back recently after a lengthy rehab from rotator cuff surgery.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

C.J. Mosley, LB: $21.47MM
Duane Brown, OT: $11.28MM
Laken Tomlinson, G: $10.88MM
Zach Wilson, QB: $9.58MM
Aaron Rodgers, QB: $8.88MM
D.J. Reed, CB: $7.96MM
Sauce Gardner, CB: $7.60MM
Dalvin Cook, RB: $7MM
C.J. Uzomah, TE: $6.72MM
Quinnen Williams, DE: $6.43MM

Expectations are high in New York, with the Jets having emerged from the summer as one of the offseason’s “winners.” Of course, the Jets have previously won offseason headlines before barely winning games during the regular season.

It seems like this time is different, and it is not completely unwarranted to compare the current vibes in New York to the vibes in Tampa Bay following Tom Brady‘s addition to organization. It obviously remains to be seen if the Jets can hit the same pinnacle as that Buccaneers squad, but Gang Green certainly has to be in the discussion heading into the 2023 campaign.

12 comments New York Jets Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

By Sam Robinson | at September 3, 2023 10:00 pm

Even after back-to-back 12-5 seasons, Mike McCarthy faces pressure going into his fourth year as Cowboys HC. The former Packers leader’s second-chance tenure has proven successful; he is the first Cowboys coach to guide the team to back-to-back playoff berths since Chan Gailey (1998-99). McCarthy will assume greater ownership of the team in Year 4 as well, taking over the play-calling reins after a split with OC Kellen Moore.

The Cowboys’ modest run of 21st-century postseason accomplishments is well known, turning up some heat on this rather popular team’s latest sideline boss. But Dallas’ latest roster does not present many weaknesses. The team addressed deficiencies via trades for accomplished veterans and is poised to enter this season healthier than it did in 2022. With the NFC again looking like the weaker conference (potentially by a wide margin), there are not many teams that outflank the Cowboys. That raises the stakes for McCarthy’s team to put it together in January.

Extensions and restructures:

Reached fully guaranteed two-year, $36.85MM deal with G Zack Martin
Extended CB Trevon Diggs on five-year, $97.5MM contract ($33.3MM guaranteed)
Came to five-year, $86.8MM extension agreement with RT Terence Steele
Gave S Malik Hooker three-year, $21MM extension ($11MM guaranteed)
Restructured QB Dak Prescott‘s deal, creating $23MM in cap space
Reworked T Tyron Smith‘s contract, creating $5MM in cap space
Restructured WR Michael Gallup, DE DeMarcus Lawrence‘s contracts, creating $16MM in cap space

Joining Chris Jones in testing his team with a holdout, Martin incurred more than $1MM in nonwaivable fines (the 49ers’ Nick Bosa holdout differs, as teams can still waive fines for rookie-contract players). But the future Hall of Fame guard made the absence worthwhile. The Cowboys caved, and Martin cashed in despite two seasons having remained on his contract.

The Cowboys’ preference for five- or six-year extensions has led to a number of stalwarts playing out their primes and seeing peers elsewhere sign shorter-term contracts, allowing for a potential second big payday, and ultimately come out better. Dallas’ penchant for lengthy extensions reminds of how contracts were structured in previous eras, and coming into this year, only Dak Prescott earned a notable victory (via his four-year, $160MM extension) over management on this front.

Martin entered the offseason tied to a six-year, $84MM deal. Agreed to in 2018, Martin’s contract set a guard record at the time. Given how NFL business works, lesser guards passed Martin. Chris Lindstrom, who does not have an All-Pro nod on his resume, joined Quenton Nelson in the $20MM-AAV guard club. This may or may not have been the last straw for Martin, who had fallen to the ninth-highest-paid guard following the Lindstrom pact.

Dallas’ 32-year-old O-line anchor did not skip minicamp but expressed disappointment in his contract before training camp and followed through on a rare holdout. The 2020 CBA deterred holdouts over its first three years, preventing teams from waiving fines for veterans who miss camp without excused absences. Although Jerry Jones‘ comments suggested a hardline stance, Martin ended up with an $8MM raise over two years and walked away with those final two seasons fully guaranteed. Martin had played out the guarantees on his previous deal.

For the All-Decade blocker to secure this package pointed to the value he brings the team. With Tyron Smith perennially injured and Travis Frederick retiring years ago, Martin represents the last link to the Tony Romo-era O-line core. Still in his prime protecting Prescott, the right guard struck a rare blow against the Cowboys’ contract M.O.

The Cowboys came into camp prioritizing younger players’ contracts over Martin’s, with Diggs being one of the central priorities. Known for his aggressiveness, the former second-round pick produced a historic 2021 season (11 INTs — territory no one had reached since Everson Walls got there as a Cowboys rookie in 1981) that ended with first-team All-Pro acclaim. Diggs’ passer rating against and completion percentage allowed figures skyrocketed in 2022, however. Citing the corner’s yards yielded in coverage, Pro Football Focus has yet to rank Diggs as a top-40 player at the position. The Cowboys are convinced in Diggs, for the foreseeable future at least, giving the former second-round pick an upper-crust extension.

Like Amari Cooper‘s 2020 contract, the Diggs deal has a clear out after two years. The Cowboys would be hit with just $4MM in dead money by designating Diggs as a post-June 1 cut in 2025 or trading him after that date. The team certainly will hope for a better outcome on this accord, but it is fairly protected in the event Diggs’ gambling habit catches up to him on this big-ticket accord. The player the Cowboys drafted to replace Byron Jones ended up cashing in on the type of extension neither Jones nor former top-10 pick Morris Claiborne could score with the team.

Hooker’s extension gives the Cowboys three safeties signed in the $5-$7MM-per-year range, completing an interesting middle-class-veteran-based plan at a position the team struggled to staff for years. Joining Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson in a formidable three-safety set including a former sixth-round pick and two outside hires, Hooker is now on his third Cowboys contract. The former Colts first-rounder has gone from earning $920K per year in his first Cowboys season (2021) to a $3.5MM AAV (2022) to this deal. Hooker has shaken off the injury issues that plagued him in Indianapolis, missing only three games as a Cowboy, and, at 27, is squarely in his prime.

Although dozens of restructures took place this offseason, few carried greater ramifications than Prescott’s. The Cowboys saved plenty by moving money around on their top contract, but it arms the veteran quarterback with plenty of leverage once again. Prescott scored his monster extension, after three offseasons of negotiations, because of the trouble a second franchise tag would have caused for the Cowboys in 2021. Dak’s latest restructure spikes his 2024 cap number to $59.5MM. That is an untenable figure for the Cowboys, considering no one has ever played a season with a cap number higher than $45MM.

The Cowboys cannot tag Prescott in 2025, due to the whopping figure that could come about because of the two tags used previously (the second being for procedural purposes to prevent a 2025 tag), and the void years they tacked onto the deal would result in a $36.4MM dead-money hit were Dak to walk as a 2025 free agent. Although Prescott struggled for stretches last season, he is equipped for a bounce-back year — one that should vault him into the newly created $50MM-per-year salary club. Few players are in more advantageous financial situations.

Smith has finally reached the end of the NFL’s longest-running active contract. The All-Decade tackle did not exactly do poorly for earnings in his career, but signing an eight-year, $97.6MM extension in 2014 walled off his path to a lucrative third contract. Smith, who came into the league at 20, is still just 32. Had Smith signed even a five-year deal when first eligible, he would have been positioned to score another one more in line with the market changes (the cap rested at $133MM in 2014; it hit $224.8MM this year). Being attached to a $12.2MM-per-year extension, Smith would have been the NFL’s 27th-highest-paid tackle this year. The likely Hall of Famer’s injuries (45 missed games since 2016) led to the Cowboys effectively mandating a pay cut, but he will still beat the odds and finish out this contract.

Trades:

Sent Texans 2023 fifth-round pick, 2024 sixth-rounder for WR Brandin Cooks
Dealt 2024 fourth-round pick to 49ers for QB Trey Lance
Acquired CB Stephon Gilmore from Colts for 2023 fifth-round pick
Traded CB Kelvin Joseph to Dolphins for CB Noah Igbinoghene

The Cowboys’ public courtship of Odell Beckham Jr. produced nothing, as the former star ended up sitting out the 2022 season altogether. Prior to the Beckham push, however, the Cowboys discussed Cooks with the Texans. At that point, Houston was believed to want a second-round pick (Cooks’ cost back in 2020, when the Texans acquired him from the Rams). Dallas did not bite, and months later, it did not take anything on that level to pry the veteran away from the rebuilding team. While the Cowboys inquired on Jerry Jeudy and Adam Thielen, Cooks became their pick to upgrade the receiving corps.

Michael Gallup did not deliver plus WR2 work last season, and the Cowboys missed Cooper alongside CeeDee Lamb. With Gallup nearly two years removed from his ACL tear, Cooks gives the team another nice three-WR set. Joining Brandon Marshall in accumulating 1,000-yard receiving seasons for four different teams, Cooks saw his numbers dip last season. He served as less of a deep threat in Houston, seeing his average depth of target drop under 11 in each of the past two seasons. Going into his age-30 season, Cooks should still have something left. Will the veteran speedster be able to threaten defenses deep consistently with a better quarterback?

Dallas restructured Cooks’ contract, dropping his cap hit to $6MM this season through the use of void years. Should the 10th-year wide receiver be a post-prime commodity, the team can escape this contract — originally a two-year, $39MM Texans extension — for just $2MM in dead money in 2024 (as a post-June 1 cut). Considering the 2022 Cowboys only featured one 600-yard receiver — in a year in which they cycled through some options, including in-season addition T.Y. Hilton — sending the Texans two late-round picks for one of the league’s steadiest options was a move worth making.

Another move to indicate how the Cowboys view their championship window occurred just before the Cooks strike. Dallas will complement Diggs with Gilmore, giving the defense five players who have received first- or second-team All-Pro acclaim (along with Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch). After an abbreviated 2021 season that involved a contract dispute and an eventual trade out of New England, the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year showed he still had gas in the tank in Indianapolis. The Colts’ coaching and QB performance obscured their other players’ work, and Gilmore graded as PFF’s No. 9 overall corner. Gilmore’s passer rating-against and completion percentage allowed numbers came in much better, despite the Colts’ struggles, than his 2021 output.

Gilmore played the lead defensive role in the Patriots’ sixth Super Bowl title, finishing as a first-team All-Pro in 2018 as well. But the Pats, as they have regularly done with high-priced corners, did not opt to pay him again (beyond a 2020-only raise). One year remains on Gilmore’s Colts-constructed contract, and teams do not make a habit of giving up assets for 33-year-old corners. The Cowboys lost both Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown as last season progressed. While DaRon Bland showed promise in the slot, Gilmore provides a big upgrade alongside Diggs on the perimeter.

Primarily a slot player in Miami, Igbinoghene represents an interesting flier — in a rare corner-for-corner swap — to take. The former first-round pick has never topped 300 defensive snaps in a season, not coming close to justifying his draft slot. Off-field issues followed Joseph as well, though the former second-rounder barely saw the field on defense. The Cowboys had tried Joseph outside and in the slot, but they will punt on the final two years of his rookie contract — after 330 career snaps.

The Bills and Ravens (along with the Lions) were reported to have engaged with the 49ers on Lance, but after the NFC West team only received offers for conditional fifth-rounders — which were more likely to become sixths — from the AFC teams, Dallas’ offer of a fourth won out. The Cowboys have now dealt their 2024 fourth-, fifth- and sixth-rounders — in trades for Lance, Cooks and rookie cornerback Eric Scott Jr. Two years remain on Lance’s rookie contract. Lance, 23, checks in at just $940K on Dallas’ 2023 cap sheet. Though, a fully guaranteed 2024 payment of $5.3MM looms next year.

Jones said early this offseason the team hoped to draft a developmental quarterback, and although Prescott is entrenched as the starter, the longtime owner has identified other backup options in past drafts. Lance is on the verge of becoming one of this era’s defining busts, given what the 49ers parted with to acquire the No. 3 overall pick and select him in 2021. The one-year North Dakota State superstar still resides as a relatively unknown commodity; he has thrown 389 passes since graduating high school five years ago. That said, the 49ers knew Lance well and observed him in practice throughout the spring and summer and determined he was an inferior option to Sam Darnold as their QB2.

Injuries have played a key part in Lance’s NFL chapter. A finger ailment nagged him during his rookie year — one mostly spent as a raw Jimmy Garoppolo backup — and after being handed San Francisco’s starting job in 2022, a fractured ankle in Week 2 led to two surgeries. Despite wanting to be traded to a team that would install him as the backup, the dual-threat option now sits as a developmental QB behind Prescott and longtime backup Cooper Rush. Lance’s upside eclipses Rush’s, but the Cowboys will need to pay a bit next year to find out. Four years after his 2,700-1,100 season led North Dakota State to another Division I-FCS title, Lance remains a curiosity.

Free agency additions:

Ronald Jones, RB: One year, $1.23MM ($303K guaranteed)
Brandon Aubrey, K: One year, $2.69MM
Trent Sieg, LS: One year, $1.1MM
Chuma Edoga, T: One year, $1.1MM

A quiet free agency period did produce a kicker change. After Brett Maher missed five PATs in the playoffs, the Cowboys added both Aubrey and Tristan Vizcaino this offseason and discussed a trade for Riley Patterson (following the Jaguars’ Brandon McManus signing). A two-year USFL kicker, Aubrey did not play college football. The 28-year-old is a former Notre Dame soccer player who enjoyed a brief stint with a Major League Soccer minor league affiliate (Toronto FC) in 2017.

Aubrey, who was 14-for-15 on field goals and did not miss an extra point with the Birmingham Stallions this season, represents a wildly unorthodox solution here. No guarantees are in this contract, and it is certainly interesting given how their 2022 season ended that the Cowboys would try this. It would not surprise if the team’s kicker search continues in-season.

Re-signings:

Donovan Wilson, S: Three years, $21MM ($13.5MM guaranteed)
Leighton Vander Esch, LB: Two years, $8MM ($5MM guaranteed)
Cooper Rush, QB: Two years, $5MM ($2.75MM guaranteed)
Dante Fowler, DE: One year, $3MM ($1MM guaranteed)
Johnathan Hankins, DT: One year, $1.32MM ($1.1MM guaranteed)

Although this is not the kind of contract Vander Esch likely envisioned after his rookie-year Pro Bowl offering, injuries intervened. But this marks a raise for the 2018 first-rounder, who played on a one-year, $2MM deal in 2022. The Cowboys were again connected to Bobby Wagner this offseason, and the Steelers and Texans also pursued Vander Esch. But the veteran Cowboy will soon begin his sixth season with the team.

Vander Esch’s 90 tackles and 746 defensive snaps were his most since that breakthrough rookie season. He will team with Damone Clark, a 2022 fifth-rounder who is going into his first season as a full-time starter, on Dallas’ defensive second level this season.

Fowler’s return brings back the Cowboys’ fearsome defensive end corps en masse. The former No. 3 overall pick worked exclusively as a backup last season but played in all 17 games and offered somewhat of a bounce-back year. The ex-Dan Quinn Falcons hire racked up six sacks and two forced fumbles. Sam Williams‘ second off-field incident since arriving in Dallas points to Fowler being needed as a second-stringer. The 2022 second-round pick may well face a suspension under the personal conduct policy.

The Cowboys have not needed to spend much in terms of draft capital or free agency dollars to staff their safety position, though this group now has two $7MM-per-year players. Dallas used a sixth-round pick to acquire Wilson in 2019 and added both Hooker and Kearse on low-cost fliers. Wilson’s latest contract required the most guaranteed money among the safety trio. The hybrid player is coming off a 101-tackle, five-sack season. Wilson’s box usage frees up the Cowboys to deploy three-safety looks frequently, and PFF graded all three as top-30 performers at the position last season.

Dallas took advantage of the non-Jessie Bates safety market not producing an eight-figure-per-year contract this offseason. Hooker and Wilson’s deals were in step with the market that formed below Bates this year, but neither salary ranks in the top 20 at the position. With each member of the triumvirate still in his 20s, the Cowboys’ safety position is in its best shape in many years.

Lance’s arrival complicates matters for Rush, but Prescott’s longtime caddy remains in place as the team’s backup entering his seventh NFL season. Rush, 29, kept the car on the road during Prescott’s absence last season, going 4-1 as a starter. While Rush averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt and completed only 58% of his passes, he quarterbacked the Cowboys to wins over the playoff-bound Bengals and Giants, leading the team on a game-winning drive to beat the defending AFC champions.

Notable losses:.

Anthony Barr, LB
Anthony Brown, CB
Noah Brown, WR
Jabril Cox, LB
Ezekiel Elliott, RB (designated as post-June 1 cut)
Luke Gifford, LB
T.Y. Hilton, WR
Brett Maher, K
Connor McGovern, G
Jake McQuaide, LS
Matt Overton, LS
Jason Peters, OL
Dalton Schultz, TE
Carlos Watkins, DL

Through a long-term lens, the Cowboys overinvested in Elliott. Choosing him over Jalen Ramsey at fourth overall in 2016, Dallas then gave Elliott a six-year, $90MM deal — a contract the market deemed antiquated this offseason. Tony Pollard outperformed Elliott last season, but it should not be dismissed the value Zeke brought earlier in his career. While admittedly enjoying elite offensive line amenities, Elliott is among the few players to rack up two rushing titles. He did not hit 60 yards per game in 2021 or ’22, and his recent form helped demonstrate the issues running backs face when they aim to explain their value. The Cowboys did not offer Elliott a pay-cut number.

Elliott’s 2,186 career touches lead all active backs by over 300. The Cowboys saved $10.1MM with the post-June 1 cut, though they will still be tagged with $6MM in dead money from the now-Patriot’s release. Persistent rumors about an Elliott return did not lead to a third agreement between the parties, and fourth-year UDFA Rico Dowdle (seven career carries — none since 2020) is positioned as Pollard’s backup. Ronald Jones may factor in once his two-game suspension ends, however.

McGovern follows Connor Williams as Cowboys left guards to leave after their rookie contracts expired. Dallas’ Martin commitment has limited spending at the other guard spot. Unlike Williams, McGovern only worked as a primary starter for one season. PFF barely ranked him inside the top 60 at the position last season. McGovern’s exit has also opened the door to a high-ceiling setup for the team up front.

In the spring, Jerry Jones said Tyron Smith would likely stay at right tackle to keep the team’s long-term left tackle hopeful — Tyler Smith — at the latter post. The Cowboys are instead rolling with a “best five” configuration.

As he did late last season, Tyler Smith has kicked inside to left guard. Tyron Smith is back at the blindside post at which he earned All-Decade acclaim, and Terence Steele is back at right tackle after a December ACL tear. The Cowboys had expressed concern about Tyler Smith yo-yoing ahead of a likely long-term stay at left tackle, but the urge to put their top five blockers up front has returned the 2022 first-round pick to left guard. Tyron’s injury history opens the door to the younger Smith moving back outside, but for now, McGovern’s exit creates a formidable quintet.

The Cowboys made an offer to Schultz before last year’s franchise tag extension deadline; he declined. Contract length, a frequent sticking point in Dallas, helped lead to Schultz passing last July. A winter report indicated the Cowboys may have huddled up with Schultz this offseason, with SI.com’s Albert Breer floating out a three-year, $36MM offer. This, however, came after a report that pointed to Schultz leaving in free agency. It would be hard to believe Schultz would turn down that 3/36 proposal, given what he eventually received — a one-year, $6.25MM Texans lifeboat — on what became a cold free agent TE market.

Schultz, 27, served as a key Prescott auxiliary target, helping a 2022 Cowboys team thin on receiver supporting-casters. Schultz bailed the Cowboys out after their initial Jason Witten successor option, Blake Jarwin, suffered career-altering injuries. Over the past three seasons, the former fourth-round pick totaled 2,000 yards (seventh among TEs in the 2020s) and 17 touchdowns (fifth). He will not be easy to replace.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 26: Mazi Smith, DT (Michigan) (signed)
Round 2, No. 58: Luke Schoonmaker, TE (Michigan) (signed)
Round 3, No. 90: DeMarvion Overshown, LB (Texas) (signed)
Round 4, No. 129: Viliami Fehoko, DE (San Jose State) (signed)
Round 5, No. 169: Asim Richards, OT (North Carolina) (signed)
Round 6, No. 178 (from Bears through Dolphins and Chiefs): Eric Scott Jr., CB (Southern Miss) (signed)
Round 6, No. 212: Deuce Vaughn, RB (Kansas State) (signed)
Round 7, No. 244: Jalen Brooks, WR (South Carolina) (signed)

Connected to Syracuse offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron in Round 1, the Cowboys instead opted to strengthen their interior defensive line. Smith did not produce much statistically with the Wolverines, totaling just 2.5 sacks and six tackles for loss in three seasons. NFL.com’s pre-draft assessment questioned Smith’s viability as a behind-the-line disruptor, and the Cowboys are likely to use him as a rotational player — behind Hankins and Osa Odighizuwa — to start the season. Smith will be expected to beef up Dallas’ run defense, which ranked 22nd last season — a year in which the team gave up 150-plus yards on six occasions.

The team’s post-Schultz tight end need surfaced as the likelier Round 1 path. The Bills believed this would be the Cowboys’ route; they traded up with the Jaguars to ensure they moved one spot ahead of Dallas for Dalton Kincaid. Pre-draft ties to Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer also emerged. But the team went with Smith-Schoonmaker to start the draft.

Tight end depth represented one of the 2023 draft class’ hallmarks, and Round 2 became the sweet spot, seeing five go off the board. Schoonmaker was No. 4. The soon-to-be 25-year-old rookie did not flash statistically at Michigan, totaling a career-high 418 receiving yards in 2023. But should be expected to start at some point in Dallas. Jake Ferguson is on track to begin the season ahead of him on the depth chart. Overshown suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season.

Other:

Placed $10.1MM franchise tag on RB Tony Pollard; no extension reached
Dismissed OC Kellen Moore; Brian Schottenheimer promoted as replacement
DC Dan Quinn removed himself from HC consideration
Picked up $17.99MM fifth-year option on WR CeeDee Lamb
Dismissed O-line coach Joe Philbin, senior defensive assistant George Edwards, RBs coach Skip Peete
QBs coach Doug Nussmeier followed Moore to Chargers; Scott Tolzien named replacement

More of a creative differences-based firing than an indicator of Moore’s stock, the former Cowboys QB was dismissed after the team finished first and fourth in scoring offense over the past two seasons. Managing the latter ranking despite Prescott missing nearly a third of the season, Moore took HC interviews in each of the past two offseasons. The Chargers scooped up the young play-caller within 24 hours of his Cowboys exit. This will bring risk for McCarthy, who will call plays for the first time since his Packers tenure.

McCarthy’s offseason comments about wanting to win games and not necessarily boast the top offense offered invited questions about the plan of attack, but with Elliott gone and Cooks in the mix, the team’s personnel does not support an aggressive run-game lean. McCarthy, who lobbied to ownership to call plays again, has more skin in the game now and no longer has an Aaron Rodgers-level quarterback to buoy him as a play-caller. Regardless of how Dallas got here, the offense is expected to look quite different in 2023.

This marks Schottenheimer’s first OC gig since the Seahawks fired him after the 2020 season. The second-generation coach has 11 seasons’ worth of OC experience, coming with the Jets, Rams and Hawks. Quinn, 52, has rebuilt his stock after the Falcons’ gradual descent. The Cowboys’ defense rocketed back toward the top of the league in 2021 and finished fifth in points allowed last season. Quinn has now jumped off the HC carousel in consecutive offseasons. The veteran DC was close to landing the Broncos’ job that went to Nathaniel Hackett in 2022, and with this Cowboys defense looking like Quinn’s most talented since the 2014 Seahawks’ group, the third-year Dallas assistant should field more interview requests in 2024.

Dallas has used the franchise tag in each of the past six years. DeMarcus Lawrence (2018, 2019) and Prescott (2020, ’21) signed extensions; Schultz (2022) did not. Pollard, 26, soared onto the tag radar after a Pro Bowl season. One of the league’s top pass-catching backs for years, the former fourth-rounder’s 9.5 yards per catch last season led all RBs. As Elliott soaked up touches throughout Pollard’s rookie contract, the latter (631 career touches) should have more prime years remaining compared to fellow tag recipients Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs.

Yet, the Giants and Raiders, respectively, moved closer to extensions with their starters. It does not sound like the Cowboys and Pollard were too close on terms, though Jones said the team did make an offer. Back from a broken leg and high ankle sprain, Pollard remains central to the Cowboys’ 2023 attack.

This still could be it for Pollard in Dallas. Steele’s contract is up after 2023. And Lamb looms as an extension target. Micah Parsons, who will be a surefire candidate to break Aaron Donald‘s (or Nick Bosa‘s) defender AAV record, becomes extension-eligible next year as well. With Prescott in strong position to exert leverage for another mega-extension, this roster construction may not be conducive to a higher-end RB contract. If Pollard is allowed to test free agency in 2024, he will join a loaded RB class in hitting the market at a historically uncertain time for the position.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

Dak Prescott, QB: $26.83MM
DeMarcus Lawrence, DE: $17.11MM
Zack Martin, G: $11.75MM
Stephon Gilmore, CB: $10.92MM
Tony Pollard, RB: $10.1MM
Tyron Smith, T: $8MM
Dorance Armstrong, DE: $7.25MM
Michael Gallup, WR: $6.77MM
Jayron Kearse, S: $6.16MM
Brandin Cooks, WR: $6MM

The Cowboys have assembled a strong starting lineup that should be capable of vying with the Eagles for a division championship and potentially a conference crown. Philly’s nucleus, of course, has proven far more and has a quarterback coming off an MVP-caliber season. No one has repeated as NFC East champs since the Eagles’ Andy Reid-era streak ended in 2004. In an NFC light on known contenders, the East’s arms race will be a marquee attraction.

Prescott’s contractual leverage aside, this is a crucial year for he and McCarthy. This might be Prescott’s best team since his rookie season and McCarthy’s best since the Packers fell just short of Super Bowl XLIX nine years ago. Can this scrutinized duo lead the way in snapping the oft-discussed 27-season NFC championship game drought? We will certainly hear plenty about this journey.

6 comments Dallas Cowboys Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: New England Patriots

By Ben Levine | at September 1, 2023 9:32 pm

The 2022 season saw the Patriots fail to make the playoffs for the second time in the post-Tom Brady era. While the players deserve their fair share of blame for the team’s lack of success, New England’s struggles could mostly be attributed to the sideline.

With Josh McDaniels having left for Las Vegas, Bill Belichick made the bold decision to replace his offensive coordinator with a former defensive coordinator in Matt Patricia and a former special teams coordinator in Joe Judge. Predictably, the results were less than stellar, and the team’s lack of offensive cohesion played a big role in quarterback Mac Jones‘ sophomore slump.

So, while fans may have been clamoring for a big-name acquisition, the organization’s biggest offseason move was bringing in former OC Bill O’Brien to help guide the offense. Will the coaching change help improve the Patriots’ postseason chances? It won’t hurt, but it remains to be seen if New England has enough firepower on their roster to keep up with the other three teams in the AFC East.

Extensions and restructures:

Signed LB Ja’Whaun Bentley to two-year, $18.75MM extension ($9MM guaranteed)
Signed LB Matt Judon to revised two-year deal (boosting guarantees from $2MM to $14MM)
Signed WR DeVante Parker, to three-year, $33MM extension ($14MM guaranteed)
Signed LB Raekwon McMillan to one-year, $2.25MM extension

The Patriots’ most notable extension of the offseason came during training camp, when they ended Matt Judon‘s hold-in by giving him a pay bump for the 2023 campaign. The veteran edge has transformed into one of the team’s most important players since he came over from Baltimore before the 2021 campaign, compiling 28 sacks over the past two years.

However, Judon has also struggled to finish each of those seasons on a strong note, which could explain why the front office opted to give him more money right now vs. tacking on additional years at the back end of his contract. While Judon’s reworked deal temporarily solves any contract tension, there’s a good chance he’ll be seeking some long-term security next offseason.

DeVante Parker‘s first season in New England left plenty to be desired, although there’s not a whole lot a receiver can do if the quarterback can’t get him the ball. The veteran wideout did show some signs of promise though, setting career-highs in catch percentage (66 percent) and yards-per-target (11.5), and his 17.4 yards per reception was his highest mark since his rookie campaign. The Patriots have a relatively deep receivers room and it’s uncertain how Parker fits into that grouping, but the front office gave him a vote of confidence by reworking his deal.

Belichick and Co. have always taken pride in their diamonds in the rough, so it was not a big surprise when the team was proactive in extending Ja’Whaun Bentley. The former fifth-round pick has topped 100 tackles in each of the past two seasons, and the Patriots will be counting on him to take on an even larger role on defense in the coming years.

Raekwon McMillan went down with a torn Achilles during New England’s offseason workouts, ending the linebacker’s season before it even began. However, for the second time in his tenure with the organization, he inked an extension ahead of a season in which he will not participate. McMillan bounced back from that 2021 ACL tear to play 16 games for the Patriots last season, finishing with 35 tackles and a fumble returned for a TD.

Free agency additions:

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR: Three years, $25.5MM ($16MM guaranteed)
Riley Reiff, OT: One year, $5MM ($4MM guaranteed)
Mike Gesicki, TE: One year, $9MM ($3.5MM guaranteed)
Ezekiel Elliott, RB: One year, $6MM ($2MM guaranteed)

The Patriots didn’t really add to their offense as much as they simply signed free agents to replace their departed players (which we’ll get to below). Still, that’s not to say that the free agent acquisitions won’t help the Patriots and Jones in 2023. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the Chiefs in receiving during his one season playing alongside Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, finishing with 933 receiving yards and three touchdowns. While Smith-Schuster made notable contributions for a team that traded Tyreek Hill, that yardage figure is a far cry from his best year with the Steelers. The wideout is now five years removed from his breakout 2018 campaign that saw him compile 1,426 receiving yards, but the Patriots clearly added him as a depth piece instead of an offensive focal point.

Bill O’Brien was at the helm when the Patriots rolled with their talented tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, so pairing Mike Gesicki with Hunter Henry is certainly intriguing. Still, the tight end struggled in Miami on the franchise tag last season after the organization added notable offensive weapons, finishing with his fewest receptions and receiving yards (32 for 362) since his rookie campaign. Miami’s offense is obviously a lot more dynamic than New England’s, but it will be interesting to see if Gesicki can produce with a number of comparable weapons around him.

The team’s biggest-name acquisition came during the preseason, when the Patriots added veteran Ezekiel Elliott to their backfield. The former All-Pro averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as he was used increasingly as a short-yardage specialist, and he was ultimately cut by the Cowboys during the offseason. He’ll likely see a similar secondary role in New England with Rhamondre Stevenson emerging as a capable lead back.

Riley Reiff brings 149 games of starting experience to New England, and the veteran will likely fill in for the departed Isaiah Wynn at right tackle. Reiff’s production in recent years has been up and down, a fact that was reinforced when he couldn’t even crack the starting lineup for the lowly Bears to begin the 2022 campaign. Still, with the Patriots likely rostering at least three rookie offensive linemen, there’s a good chance the Patriots rely on Reiff’s veteran knowhow, even if it’s just temporary.

Re-signings:

Jonathan Jones, CB: Two years, $19MM ($13MM guaranteed)
Jabrill Peppers, S: Two years, $9MM ($6MM guaranteed)
Matthew Slater, WR/ST: One year, $2.5MM ($2.5MM guaranteed)
Jalen Mills, DB: One year, $6.1MM ($1MM guaranteed)
Conor McDermott, OL: Two years, $3.6MM ($700K guaranteed)
Mack Wilson, LB: One year, $2.2MM ($575K guaranteed)

The New England secondary had the potential to look a whole lot different in 2023, and we’re not even talking about the addition of Christian Gonzalez and the subtraction of long-time Patriot Devin McCourty. Three key defensive backs hit free agency at one time or another, and all three ended up re-signing with New England

Jonathan Jones has played in a variety of roles during his seven seasons in New England. He was mostly known as a slot cornerback through the first chunk of his career, but he was forced to the outside following J.C. Jackson‘s exit last offseason. Jones ended up having a career season from a statistical perspective, compiling 69 tackles, four interceptions and 11 passes defended. It was uncertain if the organization would pony up to re-sign the veteran, especially with the front office investing so much draft capital into the position in recent years. However, Jones ended up re-upping with the organization, and regardless of his role in 2023, he’ll certainly be an important part of the defense.

Jabrill Peppers is another Swiss Army Knife weapon in New England’s secondary, and while the former first-round pick managed to rehabilitate his value in 2022, he still decided to stick in New England. Peppers has the ability to play in the hybrid linebacker role that Patrick Chung used to play, but with McCourty now out of the picture, the coaching staff may lean on him even more in the secondary in 2023.

Jalen Mills had an intersting offseason, with the veteran defender earning his walking papers before re-signing with the organization within the week. Mills did not necessarily live up to the four-year, $24MM contract he initially signed with the Patriots in 2021, but the team’s newfound depth means it won’t be as reliant on the veteran as they once were. Plus, Mills’ versatility will only be seen as a positive in New England.

Nelson Agholor, WR
Jake Bailey, P (waived)
Yodny Cajuste, OL (waived)
Marcus Cannon, OL
Damien Harris, RB
Brian Hoyer, QB (released)
Devin McCourty, S (retired)
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Isaiah Wynn, OT

The Patriots lost some significant depth on both sides of the ball this offseason, and while the front office did some good work replacing their departed players, the exits will undoubtedly be felt.

The most notable loss is Devin McCourty, who continued to play at a high level despite the 2022 campaign marking his 13th NFL season. McCourty still graded 33rd among 88 qualifying safeties last season, per Pro Football Focus, and the organization surely would have kept him around as long as he wanted to play. Instead, the safety — a central cog during the second leg of New England’s dynasty — decided to hang up his cleats. While the Patriots have plenty of secondary depth to replace McCourty, they may be hard pressed to replace his leadership on defense.

Jakobi Meyers obviously doesn’t have the same track record as the potential Hall of Famer mentioned above, though his loss will be felt just as much. The receiver transformed into one of Jones’ favorite targets, and despite the offense’s struggles in 2022, Meyers still managed to finish the campaign with 67 receptions for 804 yards. It was not a huge surprise when Josh McDaniels lured him to Las Vegas, and the signing only reinforced the important role Meyers played in New England. The team did bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster to help soak up some of the snaps, but Jones will have to put in some work to establish a similar rapport with his new wideout.

The Patriots lost a handful of additional veteran players, but the grouping was clearly deemed expendable by Belichick and the organization. The organization used a first-round pick on Isaiah Wynn in 2018, but the lineman struggled to stay on the field during his five seasons in New England. After being limited to only nine games (seven starts) thanks to a foot injury in 2022, the Patriots let the free agent walk. Damien Harris joined a number of between-the-tackles Pats running backs to leave Foxborough after his rookie contract expired. Harris topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage during the 2021 campaign, when he scored 15 touchdowns. But he was limited to only 559 offensive yards this past season thanks in part to Stevenson’s emergence.

Wideout Nelson Agholor arrived during the Patriots’ free agent spending spree in 2021 but disappointed during his two seasons in New England. Agholor joined the Patriots following an 896-yard season with the Raiders in 2020, but he was limited to only 835 yards across his two seasons in New England.

Trades:

Dealt TE Jonnu Smith to Falcons for 2023 seventh-round pick
Sent K Nick Folk to Titans in exchange for 2025 seventh-round choice
Traded RB Pierre Strong to Browns for T Tyrone Wheatley Jr.
Acquired OL Vederian Lowe from Vikings for 2024 sixth-round pick

Smith joined Agholor in underwhelming as a 2021 free agent. After hauling in eight touchdowns with the Titans in 2020, the tight end found the end zone only once in 30 games with New England. Reuniting Jonnu and Arthur Smith, the former Titans OC-turned-Falcons HC, represented the most notable Patriots trade this offseason, but the team also settled its kicker competition by dealing Folk to Tennessee.

Folk, 38, became the Pats’ Stephen Gostkowski successor, belatedly, and served as the team’s kicker over the past two seasons. New England chose Chad Ryland in Round 4 this year, however, leading Folk to follow Gostkowski’s path by moving to Nashville. Not long after Elliott’s arrival, the Pats sent the player previously expected to be Stevenson’s backup — Strong — to Cleveland. Strong is now positioned to back up Nick Chubb, though his role is unlikely to be as expansive as Kareem Hunt‘s. A 2022 fourth-rounder, Strong did average a whopping 10 yards per carry as a rookie. But that total came on just 10 carries behind Stevenson and Harris.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 17 (from Steelers): Christian Gonzalez, CB (Oregon) (signed)
Round 2, No. 46: Keion White, DE (Georgia Tech) (signed)
Round 3, No. 76 (from Panthers): Marte Mapu, LB (Sacramento State) (signed)
Round 4, No. 107 (from Rams): Jake Andrews, C (Troy) (signed)
Round 4, No. 112 (from Jets): Chad Ryland, K (Maryland) (signed)
Round 4, No. 117: Sidy Sow, G (Eastern Michigan) (signed)
Round 5, No. 144 (from Falcons from Raiders): Atonio Mafi, G (UCLA) (signed)
Round 6, No. 187 (from Panthers): Kayshon Boutte, WR (LSU) (signed)
Round 6, No. 192: Bryce Baringer, P (Michigan State) (signed)
Round 6, No. 210: Demario Douglas, WR (Liberty) (signed)
Round 6, No. 214 (from Raiders): Ameer Speed, DB (Michigan State) (signed)
Round 7, No. 245 (from Falcons through Bills): Isaiah Bolden, CB (Jackson State) (signed)

While the Patriots’ draft decisions rarely match mock drafts, the front office surprised many by selecting the best player on the board at No. 17 (after trading down from No. 14 and hurting a division rival in the process).

Christian Gonzalez finished his career at Oregon with a first-team All-Pac 12 nod after compiling four interceptions, 11 passes defensed, and a blocked field goal, leading many pundits to declare him the best cornerback prospect in the draft. The rookie should immediately slide atop the positional depth chart, and his addition will allow the team to get creative with its usage of 2022 draft picks Marcus Jones and Jack Jones.

The Pats discussed first-round trades with the Commanders and Steelers, but after the Packers went with a pass rusher (Lukas Van Ness) at No. 13, Washington bowed out of trade talks. Pittsburgh then stepped in, and New England charged only a fourth-round pick for the AFC North team to move up three spots for tackle Broderick Jones. Mike Tomlin confessed negotiations with the Pats were not especially difficult, and New England received the ancillary benefit of denying the Jets their preferred — by most accounts — prospect.

Second-round defensive end Keion White may be hard pressed to crack the starting lineup in Week 1, but it shouldn’t take long for the Georgia Tech product to establish himself on New England’s defensive line. White was a beast during his second season with the Yellow Jackets, finishing with 7.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss. The prospect relied on a top-notch motor and natural abilities to transition from tight end to defensive end, and with more seasoning, it will not take long before he’s bumping someone like Lawrence Guy or Deatrich Wise from the starting lineup.

The organization reworked its special teams unit via the draft, bringing in a new kicker and punter. Chad Ryland earned second-team All-Big Ten honors this past season after connecting on 19 of his 23 field goal attempts. Punter Bryce Baringer earned a number of accolades for his performance in 2022, including a consensus All-American nod, first-team All-Big Ten honors, and the Eddleman-Fields Punter of the Year award.

Elsewhere on the rookie front, Kayshon Boutte made a name for himself during training camp. The high-end LSU recruit did not put up the biggest numbers during his final collegiate season, explaining why he ended up falling to the sixth round. However, his shiftiness could prove to be invaluable as the Patriots seek a slot replacement for Jakobi Meyers, and while the Pats have plenty of money and draft capital invested into the receiver position, there’s a chance the rookie carves out a role right away.

One of the team’s most notable rookie additions came after the draft, when the team signed Malik Cunningham as an undrafted free agent. There were questions if the Louisville quarterback would stick at the position in the NFL, and the Patriots are taking a long look at the rookie at both QB and WR heading into the regular season. Cunningham joins Bailey Zappe on the Pats’ practice squad.

Other:

Hired Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator, Adrian Klemm as offensive line coach
Retained Jerod Mayo as unofficial defensive coordinator, Joe Judge as assistant
Did not win DeAndre Hopkins sweepstakes
Claimed QB Matt Corral off waivers from Panthers
LB Raekwon McMillan placed on IR

Perhaps the Patriots’ biggest offseason acquisition won’t play a snap for the team in 2023. Following a two-year stint as Alabama’s offensive coordinator, the Patriots brought back Bill O’Brien to help fix their broken offense. The veteran coach previously spent five years in New England, a stretch highlighted by his role as OC during Josh McDaniels‘ tenure in Denver and St. Louis. While the Patriots failed to win a Super Bowl during O’Brien’s first stint with the organization, he did help guide Tom Brady to some of the most productive seasons of his career.

This time around, he’ll be tasked with helping Mac Jones regain some of the promise he showed during his rookie campaign. The Matt Patricia/Joe Judge duo did more harm than good during its one-year stint leading the offense, and Belichick apparently realized his mistake and brought in his former offensive coordinator to get his squad back on track.

The organization also added a former player to the coaching ranks in Adrian Klemm. The Oregon associate head coach was linked to the organization throughout the offseason and will be tasked with rebuilding the Patriots’ offensive line.

Speaking of former players, Jerod Mayo is sticking around to help guide the defense alongside Steve Belichick. Mayo was gaining momentum for some head coaching jobs, but he ended up declining a Panthers interview and sticking with the Patriots. There have since been rumblings that Mayo has already taken on a larger role within the organization this offseason, something he was surely promised when he decided to stay in New England. There are even whispers the former linebacker could be the eventual successor to Belichick as head coach.

While it wasn’t surprising that the Patriots made an effort to retain Mayo, it was surprising that they held on to Joe Judge following his ugly year as co-offensive coordinator. It remains to be seen what role Judge will hold in 2023, but Belichick will happily keep him on the staff as long as the Giants continue to pay his salary.

Outside of coaching, one of the biggest storylines of the Patriots’ offseason surrounded their failed pursuit of DeAndre Hopkins. The Patriots appeared to be one of two serious suitors for the veteran, hosting the former O’Brien charge on a visit. But Hopkins ultimately decided to take the offer from the Titans. The Patriots do not have a wideout of Hopkins’ caliber, but they have a handful of players who probably fall on the next tier at the position. While the former Texans standout certainly would have helped New England’s offense, it is unlikely he would have drastically moved the needle.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

Matt Judon, LB: $16.4MM
Hunter Henry, TE: $15.5MM
Trent Brown, OT: $12.25MM
Davon Godchaux, DT: $10.5MM
Deatrich Wise, DL: $8.7MM
David Andrews, C: $6.9MM
Kendrick Bourne, WR: $6.8MM
Jonathan Jones, CB: $6.1MM
Riley Reiff, OL: $5MM
Ja’Whaun Bentley, LB: $4.7MM

With a lost offense and a handful of inexplicable losses last season, it’s easy to assume things will get better for the Patriots in 2023. Still, even if the organization does improve on their 8-9 showing from last season, that might not be enough to make the postseason in a strong AFC East.

Of course, things could also go from bad to worse, especially if Mac Jones proves that he’s not a quarterback to build around. If New England has a particularly ugly showing in 2023, then it could end up looking a whole lot different in Foxborough this time next year.

14 comments New England Patriots Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Washington Commanders

By Sam Robinson | at August 31, 2023 10:00 pm

The Commanders’ roster moves did not receive too much attention this offseason. Dan Snyder‘s prolonged exit overshadowed his former team’s football matters. The Snyder-to-Josh Harris transfer represents the most important storyline involving this franchise this century. Without the historically unpopular owner, the once-respected organization can begin to pick up the pieces.

As the team does so, an interesting blueprint has formed. No head coach’s seat should be considered hotter than Ron Rivera‘s, and longtime HC candidate Eric Bieniemy is now in place as the team’s play-caller. The unusual circumstances surrounding Bieniemy’s arrival aside, the Commanders have operated curiously — and intently — at quarterback. Rivera’s job security will be tied to a fifth-round quarterback — Sam Howell — the team has backed since his Week 18 debut.

Extensions and restructures:

Reached four-year, $90MM deal ($46MM guaranteed) with franchise-tagged DT Daron Payne

The Commanders’ most expensive roster maneuver came before free agency, and it became a seminal development for the defensive tackle market. Payne’s extension laid the groundwork for the new second tier of D-tackle contracts that bridge the gap between Aaron Donald and the field. This agreement came to pass after Payne delivered a strong contract year, starring alongside Jonathan Allen to help a Commanders team still without the full services of Chase Young. After Payne’s 11.5-sack season — which more than doubled his previous single-slate best — Washington unholstered the franchise tag.

Payne and Terry McLaurin loomed as 2022 extension candidates, but the Commanders took care of their top receiver and drafted a potential Payne replacement (fellow Alabama alum Phidarian Mathis) in the second round. But Mathis went down four plays into his rookie season, which turned into a breakthrough year for Payne.

The Commanders expressed a greater interest in extending Payne after his contract-year showing, and his deal at the time became the highest non-Donald AAV at the position. Payne’s pact provided a baseline for Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons and Quinnen Williams‘ second contracts — each of which ending between $22.5MM and $24MM per year — and has given the Chiefs a Chris Jones price range. The veteran All-Pro, however, has viewed that level as beneath him, holding out for Donald-level dough.

Payne’s deal gives the Commanders two D-tackle AAVs of at least $18MM. The Giants match this and are doing so with Daniel Jones extended. Washington getting off Carson Wentz‘s contract, moving to Howell, will allow for a higher volume of payments elsewhere on the roster. With Payne and Allen extended, it sets the stage for an interesting decision at defensive end — where Young and Montez Sweat are going into contract years.

Free agency additions:

Andrew Wylie, OL: Three years, $24MM ($12MM guaranteed)
Nick Gates, OL: Three years, $16.5MM ($8MM guaranteed)
Jacoby Brissett, QB: One year, $8MM ($7.5MM guaranteed)
Cody Barton, LB: One year, $3.5MM ($3.5MM guaranteed)
Trenton Scott, OL: Two years, $3MM ($655K guaranteed)
Byron Pringle, WR: One year, $1.1MM

Six teams used the franchise tag this year. The Commanders were the only one to hammer out an extension before free agency. Doing so took Payne’s tag price out of the equation and dropped the sixth-year defender’s 2023 cap hit by nearly $10MM. This, along with some notable cuts, gave Washington some cash to spend. The team primarily targeted middling offensive linemen, though Brissett secured a pay increase after a better-than-expected Cleveland campaign.

Wylie, 29, enhanced his value considerably in 2022. While a Chiefs regular, Wylie did not earn much — by NFL standards, at least — during his five seasons in Kansas City. The Chiefs re-signed him on a one-year, $2.54MM deal during the 2022 offseason. Despite the low-end contract, Kansas City stashed Wylie — a former guard — at right tackle. This became an important transition for the former UDFA.

A Chiefs 2021 O-line makeover — after a disastrous blocking effort in Super Bowl LV — produced answers at the four other O-line spots. But the AFC powerhouse skimped at right tackle. (Wylie started 11 games for the Super Bowl LIV-winning Chiefs team but missed those playoffs due to injury.) The only Chiefs Super Bowl LV O-line starter who remained a first-stringer in the aftermath, Wylie held a part-time role in 2021 and lined up with the first-stringers in every game for the Super Bowl LVII-winning team.

Pro Football Focus barely ranked Wylie inside the top 60 among tackles last season, and the Chiefs paid up — via a four-year, $80MM Jawaan Taylor deal — to replace him. But this year’s right tackle market boomed. Mike McGlinchey secured a $17.5MM-per-year contract (and a whopping $52.5MM in practical guarantees), while Kaleb McGary fetched $11.5MM per year to stay with the Falcons. Wylie settled in at a lower rate, but given his pre-2023 earnings, this contract is a game-changer for the Eastern Michigan alum. Wylie’s five-season Chiefs run overlapped entirely with Bieniemy’s OC tenure.

Washington paid market value for Gates, who was among five centers to score a deal worth between $4MM and $6MM per year in March. Gates’ career paused after a severe leg injury during a September 2021 game in Washington. The Giants had given him an extension to be their center, but New York’s revolving door post-Weston Richburg at the position kept spinning once Gates went down. Gates, 27, made it back for a midseason activation last year, helping the Giants to a surprising playoff berth. The former UDFA finished the season in a platoon setup at left guard, but he is returning to the pivot in Washington, potentially manning the job as third-round pick Ricky Stromberg develops.

It is fair to wonder if the Commanders are taking too big a risk by fielding an O-line full of modest investments. This group still features Charles Leno, a Bears castoff going into his age-32 season, at left tackle. Sam Cosmi has shifted from tackle to guard; this will be the former second-rounder’s first season as a full-time starter. Washington held a position battle for the left guard spot, with 2020 fourth-round pick Saahdiq Charles (eight starts in three seasons) expected to open the season as the starter. Howell looks to be stepping in behind an average-at-best unit.

The Commanders gave Barton a “prove it” deal. Seattle’s Bobby Wagner Seahawks replacement alongside Jordyn Brooks, Barton will replace Cole Holcomb in Washington. The Steelers brought in Holcomb in free agency. This will only be Barton’s second season as a starter; PFF assessed his first modestly, ranking the former third-round pick just inside the top 60 at the position. Statistically, Barton delivered a career year — 136 tackles, six passes defensed, two sacks and two INTs — and Jack Del Rio will attempt to plug him in at a position that has caused some issues for the team in recent years.

While Howell received tremendous votes of confidence despite a fifth-round pedigree and a one-game rookie year, the Commanders added Brissett as insurance. Brissett, 30, has made a career out of this, stepping in on short notice twice for Andrew Luck and then backing up Tua Tagovailoa before becoming the Browns’ Deshaun Watson stopgap. After struggling for the Dolphins, Brissett performed admirably in his Browns one-off.

Cleveland went just 4-7 during Brissett’s starter run, but QBR placed the journeyman eighth. Brissett completed a career-high 64% of his passes (at 7.1 yards per attempt, also a career-best mark during a season in which he operated as his team’s primary starter), keeping the Browns in most of their games. Among backup options this year, only Andy Dalton received more guaranteed money ($8MM). The former Patriots third-round pick has made 48 career starts, providing a backstop if Howell does not deliver on this offseason promise.

Re-signings:

Danny Johnson, CB: Two years, $5MM ($2.75MM guaranteed)
Efe Obada, DE: One year, $2MM ($1MM guaranteed)
David Mayo, LB: One year, $1.32MM ($153K guaranteed)

Notable losses:

Jonathan Bostic, LB
Nathan Gerry, LB (released)
Taylor Heinicke, QB
Cole Holcomb, LB
Nick Martin, C
Wes Martin, OL
Bobby McCain, S (released)
J.D. McKissic, RB (released)
Andrew Norwell, G (released)
Chase Roullier, C (designated as post-June 1 cut)
Wes Schweitzer, OL
Cam Sims, WR
Trai Turner, G
Carson Wentz, QB (released)

Wentz’s staggering descent has reached the point he looks unlikely to be on a team ahead of what would be his age-30 season. The former No. 2 overall pick has been working out in preparation of playing an eighth season, but no team has provided an opportunity (or Wentz has not accepted one). The 2017 would-be MVP has been jettisoned in three straight offseasons, with each exit more ignominious than the last. Wentz played four seasons on a $32MM-per-year contract and has pocketed more than $128MM in his career. Said career would still go down as disappointing if a notable second act does not commence.

The Commanders parting with two third-round picks for Wentz, taking on his contract after Jim Irsay was driving the bus over his 2021 starter, was surprising. But Washington’s efforts to trade for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr (and a potential inquiry into Andrew Luck‘s status) failed. Wentz being the consolation prize helped illuminate this franchise’s standing within the league. Predictably, the Wentz-Washington fit proved poor. A thumb injury limited Wentz to seven starts with Washington, which kept him on the bench as Heinicke provided a spark after Wentz had the team at 1-4.

Rivera turned back to the more talented quarterback in Week 17, but Wentz’s three-interception game sank the Commanders in a make-or-break game against the Browns. Due to the Eagles-constructed contract being traded twice, the Wentz cut did not leave the Commanders with any dead money. The $26MM in cap savings financed the Payne franchise tag.

The Falcons gave Heinicke a two-year, $14MM contract ($6.32MM guaranteed) to back up another 2022 mid-round-pick-turned-starter (Desmond Ridder). Washington had tried to keep Heinicke on the bench, signing Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2021 and then trading for Wentz. But the former Rivera Panthers charge kept finding his way into the lineup. Fitzpatrick’s 16-play Washington career led to 15 Heinicke starts in 2021, while the 2022 Commanders’ best work came with Heinicke at the controls. Heinicke, 30, improved his passer rating, yards per attempt and QBR figures last season, and Washington fans will always have his stunning wild-card duel with Tom Brady. The Old Dominion alum used his Washington stay to carve out a place as a decent NFL backup, a path that could lead to a few more years in the league.

The team did not make any secret of its Howell plans, letting it be known in January he had the inside track to start. Few quarterbacks have parlayed a meaningless season finale into a better opportunity. (Patrick Mahomes and Rob Johnson come to mind, but few others). But the Commanders placed a second-round grade on Howell, who fell from a player on the first-round radar to the top of the fifth. North Carolina losing most of Howell’s established weapons from 2020 to 2021 harmed the QB’s stock. It is safe to say he has rebounded in Washington.

Rivera’s instability makes the Howell call one of the bolder moves in recent memory, and it represents a swerve from the Commanders’ 2022 plans. Calling on just about every quarterback available or potentially available, the Commanders showed desperation — to the point they acquired Wentz without any contractual adjustment — last year. This pattern surely would have seen the Commanders place a call to Lamar Jackson, had the Ravens standout been tagged a year prior. Instead, the team joined the rest of the league in passing on a negotiation with the then-franchise-tagged superstar.

This fascinating pivot to a low-cost option offers high-risk, high-reward potential for the Commanders’ coaching staff. Washington does have a history of coaxing quality work from mid- or late-round passers. Even under Snyder, Kirk Cousins bailed the team out — to a degree, at least — of the mess the Robert Griffin III trade-up caused. Howell propping up Rivera (22-27-1 in Washington) would mark a similar save.

Injuries altered Roullier’s trajectory as Washington’s center. Given a four-year, $40.5MM extension late in Rivera’s first year, Roullier blocked for a brigade of QBs. Solid rookie-contract play earned Roullier that contract, but a fibula fracture and an MCL tear respectively shut him down in 2021 and ’22. The Wyoming alum had only missed two games in the three prior seasons, playing alongside Brandon Scherff and Trent Williams for part of that period. Roullier was believed to be interested in continuing his career, working out for the Cardinals this summer. But he instead decided to walk away after six seasons.

Norwell chose to reunite with Rivera in 2021, and the former All-Pro Panthers blocker worked as a Washington starter for two seasons. The 31-year-old guard only missed one game during his tenure in the nation’s capital but was battling an injury this offseason. Norwell missed Howell’s season-ending start due to a hip injury, but an elbow malady plagued the nine-year veteran this offseason. No team has signed Norwell, whose release created $4.38MM in Commanders cap space.

Injuries limited Schweitzer, but he found a new home — with the Jets — despite expressing interest in staying on a second Washington contract. Schweitzer, 30, played out his three-year deal last season. These exits will lead to four new primary starters taking their places on the Commanders’ O-line.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 16: Emmanuel Forbes, CB (Mississippi State) (signed)
Round 2, No. 47: Jartavius Martin, CB (Illinois) (signed)
Round 3, No. 97: Ricky Stromberg, C (Arkansas) (signed)
Round 4, No. 118: Braeden Daniels, T (Utah) (signed)
Round 5, No. 137 (from Cardinals through Bills): K.J. Henry, DE (Clemson) (signed)
Round 6, No. 193: Christopher Rodriguez, RB (Kentucky) (signed)
Round 7, No. 233: Andre Jones Jr., DE (Louisiana) (signed)

The Patriots’ decision to trade the No. 14 overall pick to the Steelers produced considerable fallout. The Commanders played a part in the process that led to the Pats giving the Steelers fairly easy access to tackle Broderick Jones, a player the Jets were believed to covet at No. 15. Washington’s angle centered on cornerbacks, and trade talks with New England fizzled because Green Bay taking Lukas Van Ness convinced the Commanders either Forbes or Christian Gonzalez would be on the board at No. 16. As it turned out, both corners remained available at 16.

Forbes became the Commanders’ preference. The Mississippi State product brought size concerns for teams to evaluate, weighing just 166 pounds coming into the NFL. But his playmaking ability was enough to satisfy the Commanders. Forbes returned six interceptions for touchdowns while at Mississippi State, reaching that historic total in just three seasons. He finished his Bulldogs career with 14 INTs and 390 return yards, twice returning three picks for scores in a season (2020, 2022). ESPN’s Scouts Inc. and NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah gave Gonzalez a higher rating, each placing the Oregon prospect in the top 11. Jeremiah ranked Forbes 34th overall. These corners’ careers will certainly be measured against each other.

As Forbes prepares to start, Martin is ticketed to begin the season as a backup. The former Devon Witherspoon college teammate did notch an interception during an up-and-down preseason, however. Martin brings a versatile skillset that allowed him to excel at safety and as a nickel corner, a profile similar to Lions second-rounder Brian Branch, at Illinois. Martin dropped a 44-inch vertical leap at the Combine and also ranked above the 98th percentile in the broad jump. It will be interesting to see how the Commanders utilize this tools-heavy prospect. The team is set to roll out Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste at corner and Kamren Curl and Darrick Forrest at safety.

The Commanders met with Hendon Hooker and were connected to potentially using a Day 2 pick on a quarterback, but the Wentz trade left them without their own third-round pick. Well after Hooker went to Detroit near the top of Round 3, Stromberg arrived as a compensatory selection. Going into Week 1, Cosmi is the only former Day 1 or Day 2 draftee on Washington’s O-line. This unusually low number should be expected to expand to two at some point. Stromberg has worked at both center and guard during the leadup to the season; he sits as the top interior backup. Stromberg earned third- and first-team All-SEC acclaim during his final two seasons at Arkansas.

Other:

Dan Snyder sells team to Philadelphia 76ers/New Jersey Devils owner Josh Harris
Fired OC Scott Turner, hiring Chiefs’ Eric Bieniemy as replacement
Declined $17.45MM fifth-year option on DE Chase Young
DE Shaka Toney receives indefinite gambling suspension

This franchise journeyed to five Super Bowls from 1972-1991 and won three. It produced three MVPs in that span. Washington’s 1983 edition held the single-season scoring record for 15 years, and the 1991 Super Bowl-winning outfit is one of the best teams in NFL history. Although the team trended down during the 1990s, the Snyder era introduced a clear line of demarcation, sinking the franchise to new depths.

Washington has only two 10-win seasons this century and has not made the playoffs in consecutive years. As RG3 faded after an ACL tear and Cousins departed for Minnesota after contentious negotiations with then-president Bruce Allen, Washington proceeded to embark on a historically rare stretch. Howell will make seven Week 1 starting QBs in seven seasons. Though, off-field distractions dwarfed the team’s near-annual quarterback concerns.

The subject of two NFL investigations in three years and hovering at the center of a House Oversight Committee probe, Snyder had weathered storms in the past. But the embattled owner saw a fall 2022 report, one that indicated he had hired investigators to gather dirt on select owners and Roger Goodell, provide a tipping point. The owner who said he would never sell the team was eventually forced to do so. The Congressional report and Mary Jo White’s subsequent offering delivered damning indictments of the culture the Snyder era brought — from financial impropriety to sexual misconduct to playing a key part in the Allen-Jon Gruden emails being leaked, which led to the latter’s Raiders ouster — and Harris being approved as the team’s new owner in July doubled as a banner day for the NFC East franchise.

Snyder still collected an American sports-record $6.05 billion for the team he bought for barely $800MM in 1999. While the two NFL investigations — the second one producing a report released on the same day Harris’ purchase was ratified, a surefire effort to bury the latest round of Snyder findings — led to Snyder being fined a combined $70MM, the 24-year owner was given a historic parting gift to leave the league without further conflict.

Longtime Snyder adversary Jeff Bezos did not end up submitting a bid, and after the Amazon founder (who has been linked to a potential future Seahawks purchase) sat out these proceedings, Harris zoomed to the forefront. Owner of the 76ers, Devils and Premier League club Crystal Palace, Harris brought in a large investment group. Harris, 58, finished second to Rob Walton in the Broncos sweepstakes last year and needed to pay nearly $1.5 billion more for the Commanders. With Harris and Walton many levels apart in net worth, a 17-person investment group — one including Magic Johnson and real estate billionaire Mitchell Rales — became necessary. Rumblings of the NFL only approving Harris’ complex bid because of a desire to oust Snyder surfaced, but regardless of how this process ended here, Harris is in his second month in charge.

A new owner being in place figures to move Rivera closer to the cliff’s edge, and the team hired a longtime HC candidate to replace Turner. Creative differences with Rivera did in Turner, whose admittedly QB-limited offenses did not rank inside the top 20 in points or yards from 2020-22. Rivera and GM Martin Mayhew were believed to want an even more run-oriented attack, which will be difficult to accomplish considering the Commanders logged the fourth-most rushing attempts last season. But Bieniemy became the organizational preference, leaving a prime situation for a potentially rocky one.

During his time as the Chiefs’ OC, Bieniemy interviewed for 16 head coaching jobs. His failure to land one became a lightning rod, and while legitimate reasons may exist for the longtime Andy Reid lieutenant being stuck on the coordinator tier, his status as a Black coach with an offensive background served as the sticking point for many.

Bieniemy not landing an HC job amid one of the greatest five-year runs in QB history — this will be the Chiefs’ first year of the Patrick Mahomes starter era without Bieniemy as Reid’s chief aide — was conspicuous, but Reid’s play-calling role served as a barrier for his five-year OC. Moving from the Chiefs’ luxurious setup to a team trying out Howell will bring significant risk for Bieniemy, whom Matt Nagy has replaced in Kansas City. But the former NFL running back was effectively stuck; only one team (the Colts) interviewed him for its HC job this year.

A 10-year Reid assistant, Bieniemy received OC interest from the Ravens as well. But he only interviewed with Washington. This will be Bieniemy’s first run as a regular NFL play-caller, and while it would be interesting to see if he became a candidate to replace Rivera, new ownership may decide to start with a new staff in 2024 if this Howell experiment falters. Bieniemy, 54, did not stand in the way of Rivera’s plan to install Howell as the starter rather than chase another veteran or plan a trade-up maneuver. As such, Howell looms as a central figure in Bieniemy’s coaching career.

Following Payne’s March re-up, the Commanders’ front office shut down business on the extension front. The ownership transfer delayed matters, with Rivera indicating the tricky dynamic that existed for big-picture contract calls as Snyder headed out the door. This paused movement toward a Sweat extension, though Washington is still eyeing a new deal for the 2019 first-rounder. Complicating matters for the Commanders’ most consistent edge rusher in recent years: Young’s status.

Young tearing an ACL and patellar tendon in November 2021 stalled his career. The former Defensive Rookie of the Year missed 22 straight games because of the injury and returned in a limited role late last season. Young was amid an unproductive second season when he went down in 2021 as well, giving the Commanders a tough ask when it came to greenlighting a fully guaranteed $17.45MM for 2024.

This could set up a Sweat-or-Young scenario regarding an extension. Sweat has offered more consistency, via his 29 career sacks and seven career games missed (all in 2021), with Young’s rookie-year showing offering a glimpse at a higher ceiling. But the former No. 2 overall pick is far removed from that 2020 NFL introduction. He will need to show the Commanders’ new ownership he has recovered from that knee malady.

It should be expected at least one of Washington’s D-ends will be back next year; the team will have the franchise tag at its disposal. But a Sweat extension opens the door to Young staying — provided he displays full health and shows the form from his rookie season — via the tag and at least one more year with the four-first-rounder D-line arrangement.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

Jonathan Allen, DT: $21.44MM
Curtis Samuel, WR: $13MM
Charles Leno, LT: $12.5MM
Kendall Fuller, CB: $11.63MM
Montez Sweat, DE: $11.5MM
Terry McLaurin, WR: $11.03MM
Chase Young, DE: $10.99MM
Logan Thomas, TE: $8.68MM
Daron Payne, DT: $8.61MM
Jacoby Brissett, QB: $8.5MM

Washington will redeploy an intriguing skill-position corps around Howell, with their Antonio Gibson–Brian Robinson tandem supplementing the McLaurin-Samuel-Jahan Dotson receiving crew. McLaurin’s preseason turf toe injury injects some concern into this setup, but if the team’s longtime WR1 is ready to go soon, the Commanders will see what they have in Howell. Though, their offensive line bears monitoring.

Del Rio’s defense bounced back last season, finishing as a top-seven unit in points and yards allowed. Given the uncertainty on offense, the Commanders will likely need a similar effort this year. Their prized quartet of D-linemen being together again should strengthen Del Rio’s unit. It seems improbable Rivera could survive a fourth straight .500-or-worse season, especially with new ownership in place. Howell’s progress will undoubtedly determine if the former NFC champion HC can stave off a second firing at the hands of a new owner.

5 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Washington Commanders

Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

By Sam Robinson | at August 30, 2023 9:58 pm

The preseason favorites last season endured major injury problems and saw a frightening scene alter their playoff route. Rather than earning a first-round bye, the Bills saw the Damar Hamlin sequence lead to a postponement-turned-cancellation and a No. 2 seed. Buffalo’s poor showing as the second seed exposed some foundational cracks, and the team spent the offseason attempting to repair the damage. While the injuries to Josh Allen and Von Miller represented the top deterrents last season, the Bills went to work on both lines to better prepare themselves for another Super Bowl push.

Free agency additions:

Connor McGovern, G: Three years, $22.35MM ($9.9MM guaranteed)
Leonard Floyd, DE: One year, $7MM ($7MM guaranteed)
Deonte Harty, WR: Two years, $9.5MM ($4.75MM guaranteed)
David Edwards, G: One year, $1.77MM ($1.72MM guaranteed)
Taylor Rapp, S: One year, $1.77MM ($1.65MM guaranteed)
Poona Ford, DT: One year, $2.25MM ($1.5MM guaranteed)
Damien Harris, RB: One year, $1.77MM ($1MM guaranteed)
Latavius Murray, RB: One year, $1.32MM ($803K guaranteed)
Trent Sherfield, WR: One year, $1.77MM ($750K guaranteed)
Kyle Allen, QB: One year, $1.23MM ($350K guaranteed)

In terms of outside investments, McGovern became the top priority. Agreeing to his contract on Day 1 of the legal tampering period, McGovern parlayed one full-time Cowboys starter season into a midlevel AFC East accord. The Cowboys’ 2022 left guard starter will replace Rodger Saffold, who became a Bills one-and-done. In ranking Buffalo’s offensive line 23rd overall, Pro Football Focus viewed the aging Saffold as one of the weak links.

McGovern, 25, does not bring an extensive track record to Buffalo. His backup, Edwards, has a longer run of starts. Although McGovern secured more than Cowboys LG predecessor Connor Williams, his AAV trailed a few 2022 guard pickups. Rather than pay up for the likes of James Daniels, Austin Corbett or Alex Cappa last year, the Bills rode with Saffold, whom PFF assigned a bottom-six guard grade. PFF also ranked McGovern outside the top 60, positing some questions. But the younger of the NFL’s blocking Connor McGoverns generated a market. Rather than go bigger for Ben Powers or Nate Davis, the Bills identified the ex-Cowboys third-rounder as an affordable solution.

The Bills have Edwards positioned as McGovern’s backup. Likely an upgrade on 2022 backup Greg Van Roten, Edwards started 45 games for the Rams. PFF viewed the former fifth-round pick as a top-30 guard in 2020 and 2021; Edwards started all 21 games for the Super Bowl LVI-bound Rams that season. Concussion trouble limited Edwards to four games last year, though Rams injuries piling up led them to prioritize other players’ returns from IR. The other Rams guard starter from Super Bowl LVI — Austin Corbett — fetched $8.75MM per year from the Panthers, but Edwards’ market cratered. The 26-year-old vet profiles as an interesting backup option for the Bills.

Buffalo also has Los Angeles’ two outside linebacker starters from that Super Bowl win, and Floyd should serve multiple purposes. Miller will begin the season on the reserve/PUP list; Floyd will insure the Bills’ edge rush, which Miller’s 2022 ACL tear left vulnerable. Proving he had solid NFL pass-rushing chops after an unremarkable Bears tenure, Floyd ripped off 29 sacks in three Rams seasons and added four more in the playoffs. Undoubtedly aided by Aaron Donald, Floyd still totaled four of his nine sacks last season in the five games the all-time great missed.

The Bills began talking terms with Floyd before the draft, and they ended up setting the veteran edge rusher market. Floyd’s deal preceded Frank Clark‘s, which laid the groundwork for the likes of Yannick Ngakoue, Justin Houston and Jadeveon Clowney to find homes. Buffalo rolling out a Miller-Floyd duo will take some pressure off Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. While the Bills will still want to keep Rousseau as a regular cog when Miller returns, the Super Bowl contender wanted more firepower. With Miller now having suffered two ACL tears as a pro, high-end insurance makes sense. With the Rams ditching his four-year, $64MM contract two seasons in, Floyd will attempt to use the Bills to score a final notable payday.

This could be a menacing pass rush once Miller returns, with the Bills having targeted Floyd regardless of the future Hall of Famer’s health. It took the Bills a full year — Thanksgiving 2021 to Thanksgiving 2022 — to feel comfortable redeploying Tre’Davious White. ACL tears are not created equal, and Miller expressed confidence in an early return. With the 13th-year edge rusher much older than the ace cornerback, however, the Bills will need Floyd early. The Rams unleashed a fearsome edge duo two years ago; the Bills will hope it is at full strength by the stretch run.

The Patriots’ lead weapon during that run-crazed Monday night in Buffalo two seasons ago, Harris landed near the bottom of this year’s deep RB1 market. With some of the NFL’s best running backs seeing their pay reduced (or contracts jettisoned), Harris stood little chance in finding much of a market. Supplanted by Rhamondre Stevenson last season, Harris will attempt to complement James Cook. While Harris did rush for 15 touchdowns, the Pats rarely involved him in the passing game. That role generally leads New England to move on after one contract, and the Bills added a between-the-tackles backup.

A 2022 second-rounder who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season, Cook is expected to be the leading man post-Devin Singletary. The Bills gave the Georgia alum just 89 rookie-year carries. He maxed out at 113 in a season with the Bulldogs. While Cook is on track to play a big role in Buffalo’s passing attack, he does not bring Jahmyr Gibbs-like college numbers in this era, having never eclipsed 300 receiving yards in a season. How Cook transitions to this bigger Year 2 role will be a key storyline in a stacked AFC East, which now includes both the Cook brothers. The Bills were briefly linked to Dalvin Cook, but he was more closely tied to the division’s other three clubs.

Re-signings:

Jordan Poyer, S: Two years, $12.5MM ($6.24MM guaranteed)
Tyler Matakevich, LB: One year, $2.5MM ($2.5MM guaranteed)
Sam Martin, P: Three years, $6MM ($2.37MM guaranteed)
Tyrel Dodson, LB: One year, $2MM ($2MM guaranteed)
Jordan Phillips, DT: One year, $3MM ($1.22MM guaranteed)
Shaq Lawson, DE: One year, $1.32MM ($453K guaranteed)
A.J. Klein, LB: One year, $1.32MM ($100K guaranteed)

A Poyer-or-Tremaine Edmunds retention scenario emerged for the Bills, who did manage to keep one of their defensive staples-turned-UFAs. Poyer hit the market but still ended up back in Buffalo. Set to run it back with Micah Hyde to keep the NFL’s longest-running safety tandem in place, Poyer is now 32. But a lucrative non-Jessie Bates safety market did not materialize, giving the Bills a chance to retain Poyer — after it looked like there was a real chance he would head elsewhere.

Hyde’s September neck injury represented a harbinger of what lie ahead for an injury-hounded Bills squad, and it put plenty on Poyer’s plate. The veteran delivered, intercepting four passes — his fourth Bills season with at least four picks — and earning Pro Bowl honors despite missing five games himself. This is Poyer’s third Bills contract. Despite the cap growth since Poyer inked his second Bills deal (two years, $19.5MM) back in 2019, no non-Bates safety securing a deal north of $8MM per year limited Poyer on the open market.

Poyer and Hyde, also 32, represent one of this century’s top safety duos. Assembled in Sean McDermott‘s first offseason as HC (but weeks before Brandon Beane replaced Doug Whaley as GM), the pair joined as low-middle-class free agents and has been instrumental in the franchise’s rise from obscurity to three-time reigning AFC East champions. The Bills have not held talks for a third Hyde contract, ahead of a platform year, but the latter is healthy going into his seventh year with the team.

With Hamlin on the cusp of turning his remarkable recovery into regular-season action, the Bills have a deep safety corps that now includes Rapp, who started 48 games with the Rams. With Rapp, Floyd and Edwards joining Miller (a year after the Saffold signing), the Bills have done well to catch some of Sean McVay‘s leftovers.

Notable losses:

Cole Beasley, WR
Jamison Crowder, WR
Tremaine Edmunds, LB
Bobby Hart, T
Jaquan Johnson, S
Taiwan Jones, RB
Case Keenum, QB
Isaiah McKenzie, WR (released)
Rodger Saffold, G
Brandon Shell, T (retired)
Devin Singletary, RB
Tommy Sweeney, TE
Greg Van Roten, G

The Bills effectively made their Milano-or-Edmunds choice two years ago, giving the older linebacker a four-year, $44MM deal that generated some head-turns at the time. Milano opted not to test free agency in 2021, agreeing to terms with the Bills on what was viewed at the time as a team-friendly contract. That still might be the case, but the ILB market did not heat up much this year. Only two off-ball ‘backers signed eight-figure-per-year accords during the 2023 free agency period.

Edmunds proved an outlier. His market exploded, with no ILB’s AAV coming within $7MM of what the Bears authorized. Chicago gave Edmunds a four-year, $72MM pact that included $41.8MM guaranteed at signing — the position’s third-highest number. With Allen extended and Diggs, Miller and Dion Dawkins on big-money deals, it was unrealistic for the Bills to pay two off-ball ‘backers upper-crust money.

Franchise-tagging Edmunds was not a realistic option. The tag’s formula grouping all linebackers together has led to 3-4 OLBs raising the price to the second-highest tag number — behind only quarterbacks. This will break up McDermott’s second long-running LB partnership; the seventh-year Bills HC mentored Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis for five seasons as well.

PFF graded Edmunds outside the top 50 at the position in 2020 and ’21 but slotted the former first-rounder in the top five last season. Edmunds earned the top ILB coverage mark from the advanced metrics website as well. The Bills have held a competition to replace Edmunds throughout the offseason, but the Terrel Bernard–Tyrel Dodson–A.J. Klein troika will have a difficult time producing Edmunds-level work. Although the Bills held talks with Edmunds, keeping him was essentially non-starter for the Bills this offseason.

Annually given a low ceiling in the fantasy community due to Allen’s impact in the Bills’ run game, Singletary still offered durability and consistency. The diminutive back started 56 games for the Bills, missing only one game since beginning his starter run midway through his rookie season. Singletary gained between 680 and 870 rushing yards in each of his four seasons, and while he did not do enough as an outlet option (zero 300-plus-yard receiving seasons), he fared well in pass protection. PFF slotted Singletary as a top-10 pass blocker among RBs; Cook rated as the position’s third-worst pass protector. The younger back will need to improve in order to hold onto his three-down role.

Giving the Bills two sub-5-9 skill regulars, McKenzie found his stride as a gadget player and eventual slot weapon. But the 5-8 receiver was not consistent enough in the latter role. McKenzie’s issues and Crowder’s early-season ankle fracture led to a brief Bills-Beasley reunion. This shuffling slot position led to the Bills prioritizing Dalton Kincaid in Round 1.

Extensions and restructures:

Agreed on four-year, $68MM extension ($24.53MM guaranteed) with DT Ed Oliver
Reached two-year, $28.33MM extension ($17.15MM guaranteed) with LB Matt Milano
Restructured QB Josh Allen, DE Von Miller‘s contracts, creating $32MM-plus in cap space
Handed K Tyler Bass four-year, $20.4MM extension ($12.32MM guaranteed)
Reworked RB Nyheim Hines‘ deal, doling out $1MM bonus in two-year, $9MM agreement
Gave DT Tim Settle $600K pay cut

Daron Payne‘s Commanders extension led to the creation of a new second tier for defensive tackle contracts, bridging the gap between Aaron Donald and the field. The Bills did not view Oliver on this level, as the 2019 first-round pick has not produced on the level of Payne, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons or Quinnen Williams. The Bills deserve credit for finding middle ground here. Oliver landed south of the Leonard Williams–DeForest Buckner tier that formed earlier in the decade, but after the Bills voiced support for a long-term Oliver stay last year and during this offseason, the sides hammered out a deal.

It is safe to say the Bills will expect more in the sack department from Oliver, who has maxed out at five (in his rookie year). The Houston alum has still flashed as an inside disruptor, helping out Buffalo’s crew of young edge players. Oliver has totaled 14 QB hits in each of the past two years while contributing 19 tackles for loss in that span. At 25, Oliver probably still has a level in his game to unlock. The Bills will bet on him doing so during this contract.

In addition to signaling Edmunds would head elsewhere, the Milano re-up — just before the market opened — created $6MM in cap space for the Bills this year. Chosen in the 2017 fifth round, Milano has been a better all-around linebacker than Edmunds — at least within the confines of McDermott’s system. Not bringing deficiencies in coverage or in the run game, the instinctive defender will now be tasked with anchoring the Bills’ defensive second level without Edmunds’ athleticism factoring into the equation. More will be on Milano’s docket beginning in his age-29 season, but he has been essential to the Bills’ defensive capabilities for several years.

While this $14.2MM-per-year deal provided $17.2MM in additional guarantees, it adds years onto the four-year pact he signed in 2021. Two years remained on that contract, and Milano’s new agreement leaves him signed through the 2026 season. During an offseason in which most teams shied away from big linebacker investments, Milano’s third Bills contract bumped his AAV into the top seven at the position.

Months after the Bills reached an updated agreement with Hines, his tenure with the team is in question. A jet ski accident, one in which another rider crashed into a stationary Hines, left the veteran return man/pass-down back with a torn ACL. Hines, whom the Bills acquired at the 2022 trade deadline, landing on the NFI list has caused a rift between he and the team. The Bills are no longer obligated to pay the former Colts back, who is tied to a $4.1MM base salary this season.

Trades:

Sent DE Boogie Basham to Giants; teams to swap 2025 seventh-round picks

Beane and ex-lieutenant Joe Schoen agreed on a deal that will give Basham another shot ahead of his third season. Even with the Bills moving Miller to the reserve/PUP list, they have Floyd, Rousseau, Epenesa and Lawson in place at defensive end. This setup, which stands to have Miller leading the way in the not-too-distant future, did not appear to have room for the Bills’ top six. Basham only totaled eight QB hits in two seasons. Although teams inquired about Epenesa as well, the Iowa product showed improvement (6.5 sacks) last season. It made sense the Bills would prioritize Epenesa over Basham, even with the former in a contract year.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 25 (from Giants through Jaguars): Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah) (signed)
Round 2, No. 59: O’Cyrus Torrence, G (Florida) (signed)
Round 3, No, 91: Dorian Williams, LB (Tulane) (signed)
Round 5, No. 150 (from Commanders): Justin Shorter, WR (Florida) (signed)
Round 7, No. 230 (from Buccaneers through Jets, Texans, Eagles and Bills): Nick Broeker, G (Ole Miss) (signed)
Round 7, No. 252 (from Buccaneers through Rams): Alex Austin, CB (Oregon State) (signed)

Beane held trade discussions with multiple teams for the purposes of landing Kincaid, who became the first tight end to go off this year’s board. Beane and Schoen had trade parameters in place that would have allowed the Bills to move up for the Utah pass catcher. The run on wide receivers that commenced from Nos. 20-23 prompted the Bills to secure Kincaid, but after the Giants traded up for cornerback Deonte Banks, Beane needed to find another team. Worried the Cowboys (at No. 26) were eyeing Kincaid to replace Dalton Schultz, Beane worked out a deal with the Jaguars. While Trent Baalke made Beane reassure him he was not taking an offensive lineman before signing off on the exchange, the Bills finally had their avenue to bring Kincaid to Western New York.

The Bills have not made a secret of their intentions to use Kincaid extensively in the passing game. Beane called 12 personnel with Kincaid “quasi like 11.” The Kincaid pick may have affected the Bills’ interest in adding DeAndre Hopkins. This is a lot of pressure to place on a rookie tight end coming off a back injury. Nearly the consensus top tight end in this class, Kincaid scored 16 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Utah and finished his junior year with 890 receiving yards.

The odds are still against Kincaid as a rookie. Since 2008, only three tight ends (Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, John Carlson) have eclipsed 600 yards as rookies. Granted, this could be a plus setup for Pitts, given Allen’s talent. Kincaid may be a great future investment, but with the Bills needing to maximize this window while Stefon Diggs (30 in November) is in his prime, relying on steady production from a rookie tight end represents a dice roll.

Looking like he prevailed in a position battle with Ryan Bates, Torrence is on track to start at right guard from the jump. NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah slotted the first-team All-American blocker as this year’s No. 36 overall prospect. While Peter Skoronski has shifted to guard after a college career spent on the edge, ESPN’s Scouts Inc. graded Torrence as this class’ top guard. The Bills have seen quick progression from Torrence, a near-350-pound presence who will certainly improve this pass-heavy team’s physicality in the run game. If Torrence sticks as a starter, Bates and Edwards will double as two of the NFL’s top backup O-linemen. No guaranteed money remains on Bates’ Bears-built contract after this season.

Other:

Reached extension agreements with GM Brandon Beane, HC Sean McDermott
DC Leslie Frazier steps down from post; McDermott to call defensive plays
Pursued WR DeAndre Hopkins; discussed trade with Cardinals
S Damar Hamlin returns to action after January cardiac arrest
Hired Al Holcomb as senior defensive assistant

The second round of extensions for the “McBeane” power duo run through 2027. While the Bills’ past two seasons have brought unfortunate endings, this HC-GM combo rescued the franchise from a 17-year post-Music City Miracle playoff drought.

The Bills have won three AFC East titles for the first time since 1989-91, and Beane’s two-trade-up first round in 2018 — a process that brought Allen from Wyoming to Buffalo — stands as one of the most important draft moves of the past decade. The Bengals’ back-to-back AFC championship game appearances have knocked the Bills down a peg, but having beaten the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in back-to-back Octobers and having posted two 13-win seasons in the 2020s, this remains one of the NFL’s top operations.

While McDermott gained some security through his latest extension, the ex-Andy Reid lieutenant will have more responsibilities this season. Be it a quiet dismissal or a true step back, Frazier is no longer with the Bills. Some what-ifs cloud the former Vikings HC’s recent Buffalo work, which mostly featured top-five finishes. The Bills finished as a top-two scoring defense in 2019, 2021 and 2022. By the time the 2021 and 2022 squads suited up for the playoffs, however, Frazier was down Tre’Davious White (’21) and Miller and Hyde (’22). An argument can be made the Bills are the Super Bowl LVI favorites had White played against the Chiefs in that divisional-round classic, but after the Bengals’ dominant performance in Orchard Park, McDermott (with ex-Panthers DC Holcomb as a key consigliere) will take over.

The Chiefs not landing Hopkins serves as a bonus for the Bills, who joined their rivals as the only teams to negotiate trade terms with the Cardinals before the former All-Pro’s release. Beane ended up talking directly to Hopkins this offseason, with the receiver agentless for a stretch. Despite Oliver’s extension creating cap space, the Bills used much of the mid-offseason gain to add Floyd. Hopkins, 31, would have obviously brought intrigue. But he also has been a target hog for much of his career. How Hopkins would mesh with Diggs and his impact on Kincaid is believed to have affected the Bills’ interest in bringing in the ex-Texans All-Pro.

The main principals have said the right things re: the Diggs-McDermott minicamp spat, but the mercurial wideout’s status should be monitored as he begins a fourth Buffalo season. A disagreement about Diggs’ usage in Minnesota in 2019 preceded the 2020 trade. The Pro Bowl target storming out of the locker room after the Bills’ divisional-round defeat and then being sent home from a minicamp workout is not exactly a good look. Diggs has denied he wants out of Buffalo and denied he is dissatisfied with his role in the offense. Only Davante Adams has seen more targets than Diggs since the latter was dealt to the Bills.

Diggs made a transformative impact on the Bills upon arrival in 2020, leading Allen to his present place as a locked-in franchise quarterback. The partnership forming created realistic Hall of Fame paths for both parties. Any sort of turbulence could affect a Bills foundation that has seen injuries produce some cracks during this ascent.

The likely 2023 Comeback Player of the Year award winner, Hamlin is less than two weeks from returning. Since Hamlin’s collision with Tee Higgins in Cincinnati induced commotio cordis — an extremely rare condition that emerges after chest trauma produces waves of electricity that can alter heart rhythm — and led to the young safety needing ventilator assistance in the immediate aftermath, his inspirational recovery has gone smoothly. Hamlin participated in OTAs and minicamp and received full clearance for contact early in training camp. Hamlin, 25, will be set to return to the backup role at which he began the 2022 season.

With Rapp in the mix, Hamlin might not see too much time on defense. But with Hyde and Poyer being 32, odds are against 17-game seasons. Even if Hamlin will be a depth piece upon coming back, his return to Highmark Stadium will be a must-see NFL moment.

Josh Allen, QB: $18.64MM
Tre’Davious White. CB: $16.24MM
Stefon Diggs, WR: $14.88MM
Dion Dawkins, T: $14.85MM
Mitch Morse, C: $11.36MM
Micah Hyde, S: $10.57MM
Taron Johnson, CB: $9.25MM
DaQuan Jones, DT: $8.58MM
Von Miller, DE: $7.94MM
Matt Milano, LB: $7.99MM

Allen did not end up undergoing surgery to repair his partially torn UCL, which clearly hampered the star QB (and, thus, the team) during the season’s second half. This season marks the first on Allen’s six-year extension. With Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert each signing deals for at least $51MM per year, the Bills having Allen signed through 2028 at $43MM per annum reflects a prescient extension framework on the Bills’ part in 2021. Should Patrick Mahomes end up receiving a contract adjustment, it would not surprise to see Allen’s pact updated. For now, the Bills have one of the league’s best five QBs tied to contract that has drifted off the top tier.

The Bills have dropped off the Super Bowl favorite perch, though their AFC East throne may be under fire due to the enhancements the challengers have made. Even with Aaron Rodgers, Vic Fangio and a Patriots offensive coordinator with sufficient qualifications in the division now, Allen still makes the Bills the safest bet. That said, Buffalo will be under considerable pressure to turn this well-built nucleus into a Super Bowl team. And McDermott’s bunch must navigate a deep conference to complete this odyssey.

5 comments Buffalo Bills Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

By Adam La Rose | at August 27, 2023 11:00 pm

Following their run to the Super Bowl in 2021, it came as no surprise that the Bengals were once again a force in the AFC last year. A last-minute loss to the Chiefs in the conference title game ended their season but confirmed Cincinnati’s status as one of the league’s heavyweights. This offseason saw the franchise begin to face the task of retaining as many core players as possible, something which will become increasingly challenging.

At the top of the priority list sits an extension for quarterback Joe Burrow. After seeing Jalen Hurts, then Lamar Jackson and, most recently, Justin Herbert sign the NFL’s largest contracts in succession, a clear market has been set for Burrow. The Bengals have yet to hammer out a monster deal with their franchise signal-caller, but in the midst of negotiations on that front, they have kept much of their nucleus intact while making another investment aimed at better protecting him.

Free agency additions:

Orlando Brown Jr., T: Four years, $64MM ($31.1MM guaranteed)
Nick Scott, S: Three years, $12MM ($3MM guaranteed)
Irv Smith Jr., One year, $1.75MM ($400K guaranteed)
Trevor Siemian, QB: One year, $1.32MM ($153K guaranteed)
Sidney Jones, CB: One year, $1.13MM
Cody Ford, OL: One year, $1.08MM

In 2022, each of the Bengals’ three most lucrative deals given to outside free agents were earmarked for offensive linemen (guard Alex Cappa, tackle La’el Collins and center Ted Karras). That came as no surprise, with Burrow’s sacks taken representing a major issue in need of resolution. The new faces up front helped the Bengals finish mid-pack in that respect (44) last year, but the play of left tackle Jonah Williams left enough to be desired that another major investment was deemed necessary.

Brown, 27, headlined a free agent class which featured a number of young right tackle options (as he himself once was), but few blindside blockers with his pedigree. The four-time Pro Bowler had a highly successful pair of seasons in Kansas City, continuing to earn solid but unspectacular PFF grades while helping the Chiefs turn their own offensive line renovation into another Super Bowl triumph.

Brown played out the 2022 season on the franchise tag after turning down an extension offer which included a higher AAV and guaranteed money. The Chiefs’ 2022 offer was for six years, however. Turning down that pact paved the way for a longer-than-anticipated stay on the open market this year, with Browns’ desire to remain a left tackle limiting the degree of interest teams showed in him (although the Jets and Steelers were among those which explored a deal with the Oklahoma product).

Nevertheless, Brown — whom the Chiefs wanted to retain but declined to tag for a second time — will be able to continue blocking for an elite AFC quarterback, as has been the case throughout his career. The former Ravens third-rounder played alongside Jackson before his desire to play LT full time led to his trade to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. If Burrow joins the other signal-callers in winning an NFL MVP award in 2023, Brown will likely have played a significant role in that feat.

The drop-off in guaranteed money from Brown to Scott and the other additions illustrates the degree to which the Bengals have turned their attention to retaining homegrown core contributors. The latter should still be counted on early in his Cincinnati tenure in particular, having proven himself worthy of a starting role during his final Rams campaign. Incremental increases in playing time over his first three seasons in Los Angles were followed up by a major jump in 2022.

Scott, 28, responded with career-highs across the board, notching a pair of interceptions while excelling in run defense. Weaknesses in coverage were exposed, however, leaving plenty of room for improvement within what should be a strong Cincinnati secondary. The Bengals could move on as early as next offseason given the structure of Scott’s deal, providing plenty of motivation to at least repeat last year’s statistical success.

The top of Cincinnati’s tight end depth chart has once again seen movement, with Smith being brought in as a pass-catching option. Injuries have defined the former second-rounder’s career in large part, as he missed the entire 2021 campaign and was limited to only eight contests last year. The flier taken on him by the Bengals could prove to be worthwhile if Smith can deliver on the promise shown when he was on the field in Minnesota. It is fair to wonder, however, where he will sit in the pecking order in a passing offense clearly led by wideouts Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

The backup quarterback spot has been up for grabs this offseason for the first time in the Burrow era. Siemian has only made six starts since his Broncos tenure ended in 2018, and he bounced around to five different teams between that point and his arrival in Cincinnati. The 31-year-old has managed to piece together a respectable career after entering the league as a seventh-rounder, but his underwhelming play (along with that of former UDFA Jake Browning) during the summer could very well leave the Bengals in the market for an addition under center before the regular season kicks off.

Re-signings:

Germaine Pratt, LB: Three years, $20.25MM ($7MM guaranteed)
Max Scharping, G: One year, $1.28MM ($175K guaranteed)
Jalen Davis, CB: Two years, $2.43MM ($150K guaranteed)
Joe Bachie, LB: One year, $1.16MM ($75K guaranteed)
Trayveon Williams, RB: One year, $1.23MM ($53K guaranteed)
Trent Taylor, WR/PR: One year, $1.23MM ($53K guaranteed)
Drew Sample, TE: One year, $1.23MM ($53K guaranteed)
Mitchell Wilcox, TE: One year, $1.04MM ($25K guaranteed)
Michael Thomas, S: One year, $1.17MM
Cal Adomitis, LS: One year, $870K

Pratt is one of many Day 2 picks who have turned into dependable Bengals starters in recent years. The 27-year-old delivered personal bests in tackles (99), sacks (one), interceptions (two) and pass deflections (10) last season. The latter figure demonstrated his strengths in coverage, something which would have set him up well for a deal elsewhere on the open market despite the glut of capable options at the position in 2023.

Instead, the former third-rounder will remain in Cincinnati and reprise his role as an important member of the defense’s second level. That unit helped the Bengals rank seventh against the run in 2022, and similar success would not come as a surprise given the retention of several defensive mainstays in the past two years. While Pratt generally receives less acclaim than many other Bengals contributors, his continued presence will be welcomed on a team seeking to retain as many 20-something players as it can.

That goal has resulted in a slew of other low-cost depth deals, including one for Williams. In a year in which the Bengals’ backfield future was in doubt for quite some time, the former sixth-rounder appeared to be in line for an increased role in 2023. Williams has yet to score a touchdown during his limited usage, but his 5.5 yards per touch average points to potential in a complementary role. He will once again be able to serve in that capacity, but a deal giving him a larger opportunity down the road will likely need to come from another team.

Brandon Allen, QB
Eli Apple, CB
Jessie Bates, S
Vonn Bell, S
Tre Flowers, CB
Kevin Huber, P (retired)
Hayden Hurst, TE
Chris Lammons, CB

After talks with Bates failed to produce a long-term agreement last offseason, it seemed inevitable that his franchise-tagged 2022 season would be his last in Cincinnati. The former second-rounder rebounded from a comparatively down year in 2021 to deliver a strong regular-season performance (four interceptions, eight pass breakups). A completion percentage allowed of 51.4% as the closest defender in coverage helped confirm Bates’ status as not only the top safety in the 2023 free agent class, but one of the best players available at any position.

The 26-year-old represented the largest of several major investments the Falcons made on defense this spring, signing a four-year, $64MM deal. The guaranteed money included in the pact ($36MM) places him second in the league in that regard amongst safeties — a commitment the Bengals were not in position to match with so many other financial priorities to attend to. Plenty will be expected of Bates in Atlanta, a team pegged to take a considerable step forward in 2023, but the presence of 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill as a successor gives the Bengals confidence he will be replaced effectively.

Bell’s departure coinciding with that of Bates leaves plenty of responsibility for Hill and Scott as comparatively unproven players. Bell matched Bates’ interception total as the pair formed a highly effective tandem and helped the Bengals’ defense cope with injuries at the cornerback spot. A healthy Panthers deal helped lure the former to a new team for the third time in his career, and it included $10MM more in guaranteed money than what Cincinnati gave Scott to replace him.

Bates and Bell combined to play just over 6,100 snaps during their time together, leading to reasonable questions about Hill and Scott’s ability to replicate their success. If things go according to plan, the Bengals will be well-positioned to remain effective on defense. If not, though, the absence of an experienced and productive duo on the backend will be sorely missed.

Apple needed to wait until late July to find a deal, one which was spurred in large part by outside circumstances. The former first-rounder joined the Dolphins after they learned Jalen Ramsey will miss notable regular-season time due to knee surgery. Apple started all but one of his 38 regular and postseason games in Cincinnati, though, much like the Bates situation, a contingency plan was put into place last April. 2022 second-round pick Cam Taylor-Britt is in place to ascend to a starting role opposite Chidobe Awuzie after filling in as a first-teamer following the latter’s ACL tear in his rookie year.

Hurst found a long-term home with his own three-year Panthers contract. The former first-rounder was dealt from Baltimore to Atlanta after two years, as he sought out a full-time starting opportunity. The Falcons’ decision to draft Kyle Pitts fourth overall in 2021 interrupted that plan, and led to a one-year Bengals agreement. Hurst, 30, posted his second-highest receiving total in 2022 (414 yards), and he will be counted on as one of many veteran pass catchers brought in by the Panthers.

Huber broke the Bengals’ all-time games played record partway through the 2022 season. He did not finish the campaign as the team’s punter, however, having been waived in December to make way for Drue Chrisman. The latter and sixth-round rookie Brad Robbins will vie for the role Huber held for nearly 14 straight years, giving the winner of the competition large shoes to fill in 2023 and beyond.

Extensions and restructures:

Restructured RB Joe Mixon’s contract, agreeing to two-year, $11.5MM arrangement ($4.13MM guaranteed)
Extended LB Logan Wilson on a four-year, $36MM deal ($10MM guaranteed)
Adjusted DE Trey Hendrickson’s pact, adding one year and including $21MM in new money

Long before Mixon’s financial situation had been sorted out, it was clear he would not enter 2023 without agreeing to play on a reduced figure. It was in question for much of the offseason if the Pro Bowler would remain with the Bengals at all, given the other contracts the team needed to attend to and the overall landscape of the running back position. A public vote of confidence from head coach Zac Taylor (which was far different that the tone struck by VP of player personnel Duke Tobin and EVP Katie Blackburn) was eventually followed by a resolution.

Mixon was originally scheduled to earn $20.5MM between 2023 and ’24, the final two years of his existing pact. He remains on the books for the same amount of time as a result of his new agreement, but his salary over that span has dropped by a combined $9MM (although incentives are in place to earn back as much of $4MM of that total). The Bengals could comfortably move on next offseason given the relative lack of dead money ($2.75MM) which would be incurred by doing so.

Entering his age-27 season, Mixon will again have plenty of touches as the team’s undisputed lead back, but he will be required to deliver a strong performance to remain in Cincinnati beyond 2023. The Oklahoma product had a career-high 1,519 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns in 2021, but his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the third time in his career last season. A lack of experienced options behind him on the depth chart has led to the Bengals being connected to a RB addition. The chances of that taking place next spring will jump exponentially if Mixon’s production is insufficient to secure a continued future in Cincinnati.

A number of high-profile backs have seen their market take a turn for the worse this offseason. The likes of Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott were released (and remained free agents through August), while Aaron Jones joined Mixon in taking a notable pay cut to remain in place. Austin Ekeler (as well as Jonathan Taylor, at least for the time being) was unable to generate a trade market conditional on a big-ticket extension, and none of the three franchise tag recipients — Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard — landed multiyear deals after their respective teams showed varying degrees of interest in offering one. With an aggravated menacing charge dating back to the 2022 postseason now behind him, Mixon will approach the new season with plenty to prove.

Plenty of attention has been paid to the progress of the Burrow talks, but Wilson was frequently mentioned as a logical extension candidate in his own right. Working out a deal well before the final year of the latter’s rookie contract was a public priority for the team, so it came as little surprise that it was taken care of more than one month before the start of the regular season. Doing so ensures the Wilson-Pratt tandem will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Wilson has been a full-time starter each of the past two years, and his playing time has yielded significant production. The 27-year-old has recorded 223 tackles, 3.5 sacks and five interceptions since 2021, adding another 62 stops in the postseason. A repeat of those numbers can be expected through the life of this contract, so long as Wilson (who has missed 10 games in his career) can avoid any major injuries.

The former third-rounder now sits 12th in the NFL in terms of annual compensation amongst inside linebackers. Combined with Pratt (16th), Wilson could prove to be a cost-effective producer at the second level through the Bengals’ championship window. If the team can retain its most important offensive contributors, he will not garner nearly as much attention as the players on that side of the ball, but he will nevertheless be a core member leaned on heavily now and in the future.

As a result of his productive two-year stint with the Bengals, Hendrickson will see a $5MM raise this season compared to what his original four-year, $60MM deal called for. The former Saints third-rounder has collected 22 sacks, 51 quarterback hits and a pair of Pro Bowl nods during his time in Cincinnati. That has made him the focal point of the team’s pass rush and a foundational member of its defense, just as he was expected to based on their commitment to him.

Hendrickson, 28, is now on the books through 2025, and while he is not due any guaranteed salary after this season, his cap hits for the final two years ($20.17MM and $18.67MM) could result in further alterations being made. So long as he continues brining down quarterbacks at an elite rate (his sack total from the past two years ranks eighth in the NFL), though, he should be assured of a place in his second NFL home for many years to come.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 28: Myles Murphy, DE (Clemson) (signed)
Round 2, No. 60: DJ Turner, CB (Michigan) (signed)
Round 3, No. 95 (from Chiefs): Jordan Battle, S (Alabama) (signed)
Round 4, No. 131: Charlie Jones, WR (Purdue) (signed)
Round 5, No. 163: Chase Brown, RB (Illinois) (signed)
Round 6, No. 206: Andrei Iosivas, WR (Princeton) (signed)
Round 6, No. 217 (from Chiefs): Brad Robbins, P (Michigan) (signed)
Round 7, No. 246: DJ Ivey, CB (Miami) (signed)

The Bengals sat near the bottom of the league with 30 sacks last year, so in the absence of another big-money investment at the position, the draft was required to add firepower in the pass-rush department. Murphy will be able to help in that regard if he can live up to his draft stock, which was based in large part off his production as a sophomore. That 2021 season saw Murphy rack up eight sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss, totals which led to increased expectations for a strong follow-up campaign.

Like a number of other Clemson defenders, Murphy took a step back in production in his final Tigers season (6.5 sacks, 11 TFLs). The 6-foot-5, 275-pounder was still considered a Day 1 talent based on his size and three-down potential, and he will have at least a rotational role right away. Both Hendrickson and fellow edge starter Sam Hubbard are under contract through 2025, but the latter is set to see his cap hits eclipse the eight-figure mark starting next year. The Bengals would see financial benefits from cutting bait with Hubbard at that time, something which would be easier to contemplate if Murphy plays his way into an expanded role early in his pro career.

Like they did last year, the Bengals looked to Michigan to add a highly regarded defensive back early in the draft. Turner’s time with the Wolverines overlapped in part with that of safety Dax Hill; the pair played a large role in the team’s success on defense and earned themselves acclaim upon entry to the NFL. Turner only played two years in Ann Arbor, but his three interceptions and 17 pass deflections over that span showcased his ball skills.

The 5-9, 206-pound defender’s speed and productivity placed him relatively high in the second tier of corners in 2023’s deep class. Turner will find himself behind Cam Taylor-Britt and Chidobe Awuzie on the depth chart for boundary corners, with the latter facing high expectations coming off an ACL tear last year. Still, Turner could find himself competing for defensive snaps relatively quickly in his Bengals tenure as the team continues to depend in large part on young, cost-controlled contributors in the secondary.

Battle had a productive four-year stint in Tuscaloosa, collecting 252 tackles and six interceptions. The starting tandem of Hill and Nick Scott is in place for 2023, but Battle should be able to secure a special teams role as a rookie. Beyond that, the potential out in Scott’s deal could pave the way to defensive playing time for Battle as early as next year, though demonstrating an ability to play an every-down role will be difficult for the latter under Lou Anarumo, a defensive coordinator known for not being fond of rotations on the backend.

Other:

Exercised Joe Burrow’s 2024 fifth-year option ($29.5MM); extension talks with QB ongoing
Discussed T Jonah Williams trade with Jaguars
Shut down trade speculation over WR Tee Higgins
OC Brian Callahan interviewed for Cardinals’, Colts’ HC vacancies
DC Lou Anarumo interviewed for Cardinals’ HC vacancy
Signed 13 UDFAs

Four young QBs were on tap to sign massive second contracts this offseason, and only Burrow has yet to sign his. The terms of Justin Herbert’s Chargers deal in particular were thought to be a factor influencing the Burrow negotiations, which began in March. It comes as little surprise that talks have lasted through the summer, when most extensions of this kind are finalized.

On the other hand, the former No. 1 pick has little, if anything, left to prove to an organization which has been revitalized during his time under center. Burrow’s market value should only increase if his strong play continues through another series of jumps in the salary cap ceiling. Each of Herbert, and both Jalen Hurts (Eagles) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens) before him secured at least $51MM per season on average and $110MM in guaranteed money. Burrow — who is taking a hands-on approach during negotiations — should comfortably be able to do the same, in spite of the Bengals’ reputation for frugality on the matter of most contract decisions.

Knowing the challenge of keeping the team’s nucleus intact for the future, though, Burrow has acknowledged the need to take care of other extension-eligible players as well in the coming years. Fellow LSU alum Ja’Marr Chase is among the players due for a massive raise as early as next offseason. The surging wide receiver market should see Chase become one of the league’s highest-paid wideouts, but cost certainty with respect to Burrow would help the Bengals plan out such a commitment.

After his rookie season was cut short by an ACL tear, Burrow has guided Cincinnati to a combined 27-12 regular and postseason record over the past two years. A continuation of that success (even in a highly competitive division and conference) should be expected as long as the 26-year-old remains healthy and on the books at a reasonable rate. Sorting out the latter factor sooner than later would pay dividends for both team and player.

Given the struggles of Williams and right tackle La’el Collins, the Bengals were interested in making another tackle investment in free agency, but a mid-tier commitment was initially planned. Making a major splash with Orlando Brown Jr. caught Williams off guard, and he requested a deal giving him a fresh start and a continued opportunity to start on the blindside. To little surprise, not much of a trade market developed.

The Alabama product is due $12.6MM this season on the fifth-year option, so an acquiring team would have needed to sacrifice draft capital and make a sizable financial commitment for a Williams trade to be viable. The Jaguars lost Jawaan Taylor in free agency, which created a vacancy (before the draft) for a long-term right tackle option. LT Cam Robinson will be suspended to start the year, so Williams could have at least auditioned as a potential successor to the latter down the road.

Instead, he will now devote his full attention to the 2023 campaign, where he is in line to start at right tackle. A strong performance at that position would lead to notable interest on the open market, as evidenced by this year’s free agency period. It could also, of course, make Williams another in-house player worthy of a second Bengals contract at a time when committing to several of those will be a tall order.

With Burrow and Chase set to eat up much of the Bengals’ cap commitments on offense for years to come, many have pointed to Higgins as a contributor in danger of being left behind. Moving the former second-rounder likely would have yielded a notable return even with only one year remaining on his rookie contract, given his capability of serving as a No. 1 receiver on most other teams around the league. Instead, the two-time 1,000-yard producer will spend at least one more year in the Queen City.

Higgins, 24, has expressed a desire to remain with the Bengals on a long-term deal, so a heathy dialogue on an extension should be possible. How the Clemson product fits into the team’s cap structure beyond 2023 will increasingly become a talking point once the Burrow deal is finalized. The franchise tag could be an option in Higgins’ case; using it would carry a one-year cost of roughly $23MM, which is likely in the range of what a multiyear accord would require.

Both Callahan (39) and Anarumo (57) have been in Cincinnati since 2019, the first year with head coach Zac Taylor at the helm. That trio has enjoyed tremendous success, producing the first instance of back-to-back conference championship game appearances in franchise history. This led some to be surprised the Taylor-Callahan-Anarumo partnership will remain in place for at least one more season. Another strong campaign from both coordinators will no doubt lead to further interest on the head coaching circuit moving forward, but for now they will are well-positioned to build off their respective achievements for 2023.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

D.J. Reader, DT: $15.52MM
Trey Hendrickson, DE: $15.14MM
Jonah Williams, T: $12.6MM
Joe Burrow, QB: $11.56MM
B.J. Hill, DT: $10.83MM
Orlando Brown Jr., T: $10.4MM
Tyler Boyd, WR: $10.3MM
Sam Hubbard, DE: $9.97MM
La’el Collins, T: $9.39MM
Alex Cappa, G: $8.75MM

With a number of core players still on their rookie deals, the Bengals can afford to have a balanced set of commitments across their roster. Things will change starting next year, though, with several players (including Burrow) due for sizable jumps. Reader, Williams and Boyd are entering the final years of their respective deals; any departures amongst that trio would free up space, but the team would then be tasked with identifying lower-cost replacements either in free agency or the draft while retaining other extension-eligible players.

Burrow has publicly stated that the Bengals’ championship window is congruent with his playing career. His play to date has suggested that could very well be the case, and 2023 offers another opportunity with several key players and coaches still in the fold to help him lead the franchise to its first ever Super Bowl championship. The team faces a number of challengers to reach what would be a third straight AFC title game, but a healthy campaign under center should have Cincinnati in the thick of things once again come the winter. Things will get trickier once Burrow’s second contract is in place, but for the time being, few teams around the league are set up better for short- and long-term success.

6 comments Cincinnati Bengals Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Vikings

By Sam Robinson | at August 26, 2023 11:30 pm

The Vikings rode another dominant Justin Jefferson season to one of the most improbable 13-win showings in NFL history. After going 13-4 with a negative point differential, Minnesota completed a bit of a retooling effort. Some Mike Zimmer-era mainstays and standouts who helped Kevin O’Connell‘s first team are gone. As the NFC North enters a new chapter, the post-Aaron Rodgers years, its defending champion will have some key producers to replace.

Trades:

Traded OLB Za’Darius Smith, 2025 sixth-, seventh-round picks to Browns for 2024, 2025 fifth-rounders

Not a cornerstone contributor, but Smith used Minnesota to bounce back after a quiet end to his Green Bay tenure. Smith, 30, finished last season with his third double-digit sack year, teaming with Danielle Hunter to form an imposing edge duo. Last season marked the Vikings’ first year with two 10-plus-sack performances since Kevin Williams and Lance Johnstone completed the feat in 2004. Although the Vikings employed Jared Allen and the Hunter-Everson Griffen tandem, Hunter and Smith produced a memorable season.

This accomplishment did not help the Vikings’ defense much; Ed Donatell‘s unit went 27th-28th-31st in DVOA, total defense and points allowed. New DC Brian Flores will coach Marcus Davenport, but as the Vikings went through with that addition, they dealt with a Smith issue. In a strange development, the former Packers standout bid farewell to the Vikes despite not having been released. Smith bizarrely sold his house, expecting the Vikings to shed his three-year, $42MM deal. The Davenport addition did make it seem likely the Vikes would move Smith, but the latter’s goodbye message came before the ex-Saints first-rounder committed.

Smith then joined Cook in limbo for months. Unlike Cook, however, the Vikes found a taker for Smith’s contract. Minnesota picked up two fifths for a ninth-year veteran, capitalizing — to a degree, at least — on the Browns’ interest in finding a better Myles Garrett wingman. Smith finished with 10 sacks and 24 QB hits, playing 16 games. Though, the veteran edge defender later said he would probably have rested a bit more were it not for gameday roster bonuses. The former Ravens draftee described wanting out to reach free agency, due to the Vikings only guaranteeing Year 1 of his pact. The Browns reworked Smith’s deal to make him a 2024 UFA.

Free agency additions:

Marcus Davenport, OLB: One year, $13MM ($10MM guaranteed)
Josh Oliver, TE: Three years, $21MM ($8.2MM guaranteed)
Byron Murphy, CB: Two years, $17.5MM ($8.1MM guaranteed)
Dean Lowry, DL: Two years, $8.5MM ($4.2MM guaranteed)
Brandon Powell, WR/KR: One year, $1.23MM ($275K guaranteed)
Troy Reeder, LB: One year, $1.23MM ($100K guaranteed)
Joejuan Williams, CB: One year, $1.1MM ($25K guaranteed)
Tanner Vallejo, LB: One year, $1.1MM

Staying on the edge-rushing subject, the Vikings outmuscled the Falcons for Davenport. Rather than reunite with former position coach Ryan Nielsen, Atlanta’s new DC, Davenport will bet on himself in Minnesota. Davenport is a classic “prove it” player. He alternated solid seasons in New Orleans but ended with a down campaign, registering a half-sack in 15 games. In his past two odd years, however, the former first-round pick combined for 15 sacks and six forced fumbles. The Vikings will bet on Davenport, 27 next month, displaying that form. His next contract will hinge on his Minneapolis bounce-back effort.

The Cardinals said goodbye to Patrick Peterson in 2021, and they lost J.J. Watt for much of that season. Vance Joseph‘s defense still finished sixth in DVOA, helping a Cards team that had also lost DeAndre Hopkins reach the playoffs. Murphy resided as a central reason Arizona could withstand all that. The Cardinals deployed the 2019 second-round pick as a versatile piece, with Joseph using the Broncos’ Chris Harris playbook by shifting Murphy between the boundary and the slot.

Last season, Murphy established career-high marks in yards per target (6.0) and completion percentage allowed as the closest defender (63.8), though his passer rating-against figure (103.1) spiked from 2021. Nevertheless, he is set to replace Peterson once again. But Flores will not use Murphy, 25, as a true outside corner. Instead, the Vikings will deploy the Harris plan, with Murphy shifting inside in nickel packages (so, a lot of slot work). It was somewhat surprising to see Murphy available for less than $10MM per year, though that is congruent with the struggle Harris, Kenny Moore and other slot stalwarts have encountered since the position became a regular role. Murphy playing well in Minnesota can help raise this position’s ceiling, particularly since perimeter work will be on his docket as well.

Although Lowry is changing NFC North addresses, the Vikings still appear light on investments up front. They still have Harrison Phillips on a three-year, $19.5MM deal agreed to in 2022, but only one high draft choice is here. And Ross Blacklock is no lock (pun intended, I suppose) to make the 53-man roster. No other first- or second-round choices — or even a $7MM-per-year player — is part of the Vikes’ D-line.

Lowry started in six of his seven Packers seasons, displaying elite durability and occasional pass-rushing production. Prior to suffering a Christmas Day calf injury that ended his season two games early, Lowry had played 101 straight games. He finished with five sacks and four pass batdowns in 2021 but did so alongside Kenny Clark. No comparable disruptor is in place in Minnesota.

To go with receiving tight end T.J. Hockenson, the Vikes added Oliver. The latter’s run-blocking prowess brought a market. Pro Football Focus rated Oliver, 26, as the NFL’s second-best run-blocking tight end last season — behind only teammate Isaiah Likely. Oliver rated as an effective pass protector as well. The former Jaguars third-round pick will play alongside a group of homegrown offensive linemen, giving Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison and Co. some help.

Re-signings:

Alexander Mattison, RB: Two years, $7MM ($6.35MM guaranteed)
Garrett Bradbury, C: Three years, $15.75MM ($5.15MM guaranteed)
C.J. Ham, FB: Three years, $5.6MM ($3.3MM guaranteed)
Oli Udoh, OL: One year, $2.58MM ($2.58MM guaranteed)
Nick Mullens, QB: Two years, $4MM ($1.92MM guaranteed)
Greg Joseph, K: One year, $2MM ($1.7MM guaranteed)
Andrew DePaola, LS: Three years, $4.03MM ($1.52MM guaranteed)
Jonathan Bullard, DL: One year, $1.32MM ($50K guaranteed)
Austin Schlottmann, OL: One year, $1.13MM
Khyiris Tonga, DL: One year, $940K
Blake Brandel, OL: One year, $940K

One of the NFL’s better-known RB2s of recent years, Mattison had eyed a Minnesota exit. With Dalvin Cook signed through 2025, the four-year backup came up in trade rumors before his contract year. The former third-round pick then said he did not expect to re-sign with the Vikings, but Minnesota’s offseason plan represented one of the grim developments this year brought for running backs. The Vikings did pursue David Montgomery, who landed a $6MM-per-year Lions pact. But they saved money by keeping Mattison. After Mattison backed up Cook throughout his rookie contract, Minnesota was willing to move forward with a slightly less skilled player at a fraction of the cost.

While Mattison’s AAV and guarantee do not move the needle, the contract being nearly entirely guaranteed did point to the early-March Cook trade rumors needing to be taken seriously. (Reachable incentives maxing out at $1MM are also available.) Calculating they could generate similar production from Mattison at $3.5MM per year than Cook at $12.6MM AAV, the Vikings effectively encapsulated most teams’ view of running backs in 2023.

Mattison provided quality off-the-bench work in relief of Cook, clearing 90 rushing yards in four of his six career starts. At 25 and having only 474 career touches on his resume, Mattison will have a chance to extend his prime longer than Cook will. The six-year starter is 28 and enters his first Jets season with 1,503 career touches, getting there despite entering the NFL just two years ahead of Mattison. Although the Vikings hosted Kareem Hunt, they look to view Mattison as a three-down player.

Multiple guards signed eight-figure-per-year deals in free agency, but the center market did not take off. As a result, several teams were able to bring back their starters. The Vikings joined the 49ers (Jake Brendel), Browns (Ethan Pocic), Panthers (Bradley Bozeman) and Jets (Connor McGovern) in re-signing a starting center. None of this quartet received more than $6MM per year, with a middle class forming at a position that still only has six active $10MM-plus AAV contracts.

PFF rated Bradbury 11th among centers last season, marking a noticeable step forward. Though, Dexter Lawrence certainly won his matchup with Bradbury in January. Although a “prove it” year could have been justified, the Vikings have Bradbury signed for three seasons — at a reasonable rate — with no guarantees beyond 2023. In keeping Bradbury, the Vikings retained their core of early-round O-linemen. For a second straight season, Minnesota will start five homegrown first- or second-round picks up front. Only New Orleans can match that setup.

Dalton Risner, a four-year Broncos guard starter, also visited the Vikings. But he remains unsigned. Schlottmann, an ex-Risner teammate, and Udoh are back in place as second-stringers. Udoh started at right guard throughout the 2021 season but returned to a bench role after the Ed Ingram draft choice. The veteran finished the season as Brian O’Neill‘s right tackle replacement. Schlottmann replaced Bradbury after the aggravated a back injury in a December car accident. O’Neill and Bradbury are healthy going into this season.

Notable losses:

Kris Boyd, CB
Dalvin Cook, RB (released)
Cameron Dantzler, CB (waived)
Ben Ellefson (retired; joined coaching staff)
Olabisi Johnson, WR
Eric Kendricks, LB (released)
Greg Mancz, OL
Patrick Peterson, CB
Duke Shelley, CB
Irv Smith Jr., TE
Chandon Sullivan, CB
Adam Thielen, WR (released)
Dalvin Tomlinson, DT

Minnesota’s departures overshadow the arrivals, helping lead to Detroit’s status as the NFC North betting favorite. Kendricks started for each of the Zimmer-era playoff teams, rising to the All-Pro level. Thielen turned from Division II alum to rookie-camp pickup to capping his Vikings career in the top four in receptions, yards and receiving TDs. Cook passed Chuck Foreman for Vikings rushing yardage last season. This trio joined Hunter, Harrison Smith and others in helping the Vikings create a steady contender without quarterback stability. That is not exactly common in the NFL, though it was Minnesota’s M.O. for a while.

Although Stefon Diggs eventually surpassed Thielen, the Minnesota native stood as the Vikings’ No. 1 wideout for an extended stretch. After a 967-yard breakout 2016 season with Sam Bradford at the controls, Thielen provided vital support during Case Keenum‘s 2017 outlier year and then added a second 1,200-plus-yard slate in Cousins’ debut. Only Cris Carter and Randy Moss eclipse Thielen for career Vikings catches and touchdowns. The 33-year-old target, who had voiced a preference to stay in his home state, caught 30 TD passes during Jefferson’s career.

With a landmark Jefferson contract coming this year or next, the Vikings have cleared the decks by cutting Thielen and Cook. K.J. Osborn (650 yards) approached Thielen’s total last year. With Osborn likely auditioning for a 2024 free agency deal, Jordan Addison is positioned to take the baton from Thielen as Jefferson’s long-term sidekick.

With neither Thielen nor Kendricks designated as a post-June 1 cut, the Vikings saved $15.9MM combined. Kendricks, 30, agreed to a five-year, $50MM extension in April 2018. In the top 10 among starts by a Vikings linebacker, Kendricks excelled for Minnesota’s 2010s playoff-bound teams, peaking with a 2019 first-team All-Pro nod. PFF graded the durable defender as a top-three off-ball ‘backer in 2019 and 2020 but charted a decline over the past two seasons. The Chargers will bet on the 113-game starter still having some good years left, while the Vikings are set to plug 2022 third-rounder Brian Asamoah into Kendricks’ place alongside Jordan Hicks. Asamoah played 119 defensive snaps as a rookie. Like running back and (for now) wide receiver, the Vikes no longer have an eight-figure-per-year deal on their books at linebacker.

GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did not make many changes to the Zimmer-Rick Spielman blueprint in 2022, and while it resulted in a 13-4 season, the Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games (before losing a one-score game in the playoffs). This offseason did not dispel notions the new Vikings regime viewed last season as somewhat fluky. Regardless of how the Vikings landed here, they are replacing a number of talented defenders.

Peterson, 33, revitalized his career in Minnesota. The Vikings may well have been P2’s vehicle to cement his Hall of Fame case. The former Cardinals star bounced back after his PED suspension provided a line of demarcation in his Arizona career. Peterson picked off five passes — including the clincher against Buffalo that tilted the AFC playoff picture — played a full season and graded as a top-12 PFF corner. The acclaimed boundary defender had said he wanted to stay in Minnesota but ended up in Pittsburgh for two years and $14MM ($5.85MM guaranteed).

Peterson’s staying power aside, the Vikings struggled against the pass and scrapped their cornerback setup by cutting their other perimeter starter (Dantzler, who has been a transaction-wire regular in 2023) and let their slot defender (Sullivan) walk.

Adofo-Mensah identified Tomlinson as a retention target, but his Cleveland signing created $7MM in dead money due to the void years on his contract. While Davenport is replacing Smith and Murphy is again filling a Peterson role, the Vikings did not add a true replacement for Tomlinson. D-line stands to be a Minnesota 2024 need.

Each 2017 draftees, Cook and Aaron Jones signed similar contracts. The Packers started the tidal wave that crested against running backs this year, giving Jones a $5MM pay cut. While Green Bay handed Jones more in 2023 guarantees and still have his through-2024 pay at $23MM, the NFL reacted swiftly — leading to a buyer’s free agent market, the franchise tag deadline coming and going with no extensions, state of the union-themed Zoom meetings and the Jonathan Taylor mess. Cook and Ezekiel Elliott landed in this minefield, though the Cowboys had both an obvious successor and a clearer reason to move on.

The only active NFLer to top 1,100 rushing yards in four straight seasons, Cook dangled in trade limbo for several weeks. The Vikings did not offer their six-year starter a specific pay cut, and Dolphins interest — Miami’s first such crush in an RB-obsessed offseason — did not lead to a swap. Cook, 28, had shown better 2020s form than Elliott, and of the five running backs who signed deals between $12MM and $12.6MM per year from 2020-21, only Cook received his walking papers this offseason. Jones and Joe Mixon accepted pay cuts, Mixon’s far steeper, while the Browns and Titans did not touch Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry‘s respective deals.

It will be interesting to see if Mattison comes particularly close to a Cook-level season. D’Onta Foreman‘s past two years, effectively replacing Henry and then Christian McCaffrey, showed the slimmer gap between top-shelf RBs and the position’s working class. Cook ranked in the bottom third in Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expected metric and will enter 2023 with the seventh-most touches among active backs (1,503). That said, the Vikings’ third all-time leading rusher figures to play a big role in the AFC East race. It is noteworthy Minnesota skipped the pay-cut step, moving straight to Mattison, after O’Connell voiced support for retaining him. Cook’s Jets deal did save the Vikings $2MM via offset language, bumping the total in savings to $11MM.

Extensions and restructures:

Restructured QB Kirk Cousins‘ contract, creating $16MM in cap space
S Harrison Smith accepted $6.7MM pay cut in exchange for additional guarantees
Reworked OLB Danielle Hunter‘s deal, turning it into fully guaranteed one-year, $17MM pact
Adjusted ILB Jordan Hicks‘ contract, converting it to two-year, $10MM accord
Gave G Chris Reed $1MM pay cut, DL Ross Blacklock a $700K slash

Although the Buccaneers gave Baker Mayfield a one-year “prove it” deal, Cousins now joins Ryan Tannehill as the only long-term QB starters entering a walk year. Cousins’ durability continuing this season will make him the longest-tenured Vikings QB1 since Tommy Kramer in the 1980s, but the current starter’s Twin Cities future is cloudy.

The Vikings extended Cousins to create cap space in 2020 and 2022, but only a restructure ensued this year. This restructure flooded the contract with void years, running from 2024-27, that will tag the Vikings with $28.5MM in dead money if they do not re-sign the longtime starter before the 2024 league year. While the 12th-year veteran wants to stay in Minnesota, he does not expect contract talks to occur until 2024.

That timetable will leave the Vikings in a crunch, as no heir apparent resides on the roster. Spielman tried to finalize a Justin Fields trade-up in 2021, and the Vikings discussed now-Cowboys QB Trey Lance with the 49ers this offseason. With no plan in place, the heat will crank up on the Vikes after this season.

Cousins’ performance level will likely keep Minnesota out of the top 10 — perhaps the top 15 — in what is expected to be a QB-rich draft, and unless the team wants to exchange one 35-year-old QB for another (Tannehill, in this case), the pressure would intensify to acquire a replacement via trade or in the draft next year. Of course, Cousins keeping his current pace going could simply translate to a fourth Vikings contract.

Cousins has earned more than $201MM in his career. He will be in position to push that past $250MM with his next deal. Cousins’ 2022 extension included a no-trade clause, and a 2023 tag is unrealistic — thanks to Washington tagging him twice to set him on course for Minneapolis. With no trade or tag coming, Vikings or free agency — either path likely featuring a lucrative pact — represent Cousins’ routes next year. The former fourth-round pick has played the contract game better than perhaps anyone in NFL history.

Hunter’s 2018 extension (five years, $72MM) was viewed as team-friendly at the time, and over the course of that contract, the edge rusher market ballooned. This created issues, despite Hunter’s significant 2020s injury trouble. After a 2021 reworking created an $18MM roster bonus due in March 2022, Hunter trade rumors swirled at that point. Somewhat surprisingly, the Vikings’ new regime ended up paying that bonus and retaining the standout pass rusher — even after he had missed 26 games from 2020-21. After the former third-round pick responded with a 10.5-sack season in 2022, more contract issues and trade rumors commenced.

Hunter, who is somehow just 28, skipped minicamp and staged a hold-in. As the Vikings explored the edge rusher market, they ultimately reached a compromise that gave the Pro Bowl edge rusher $17MM guaranteed and a small incentive package. The youngest player to reach 50 sacks for a career, Hunter made a mistake signing a $14MM-per-year deal in 2018. But he will have a chance at a free agency payday before his 30th birthday. As such, it is interesting that the Vikings will head into the season without Cousins or either starting edge rusher signed beyond 2023.

Harrison Smith joins Hunter as the last of Zimmer’s troops. As the safety market morphed into “Jessie Bates and everyone else” divisions, the Vikings slashed their longest-tenured player’s contract. No non-Bates safety signed for more than $8MM per year in free agency. After Smith signed a four-year, $64MM deal in August 2021, he accepted a $6.7MM pay cut for this year.

As he did Smith’s 2016 extension, Spielman authorized the Pro Bowl safety’s 2021 accord. Both deals set safety AAV records. Adofo-Mensah, however, put the 2012 first-rounder to a choice: take the cut or be cut and move into a midlevel market. No guaranteed money remains on the 34-year-old safety’s through-2025 deal after this year, potentially setting the stage for a 2024 separation.

Draft:

Round 1, No. 23: Jordan Addison, WR (USC) (signed)
Round 3, No. 102 (from 49ers): Mekhi Blackmon, CB (USC) (signed)
Round 4, No. 134 (from Chiefs): Jay Ward, S (LSU) (signed)
Round 5, No. 141 (from Raiders through Colts): Jaquelin Roy, DT (LSU) (signed)
Round 5, No. 164 (from 49ers): Jaren Hall, QB (BYU) (signed)
Round 7, No. 222 (from Broncos through 49ers): DeWayne McBride, RB (UAB) (signed)

Although the Vikings have some big contracts that might not be on the 2024 cap sheet (Cousins, Hunter, Harrison Smith), the Jefferson deal promises to be a payroll- and market-reshaping extension. It seems unlikely, barring the Vikings drafting a quarterback and building around a rookie contract next year, that Osborn will be retained. With Thielen gone and the slot target in a contract year, Minnesota now has its WR2 on a rookie deal that could run through 2027.

The Vikings stopped the run at receiver by taking Addison 23rd overall. The Giants were believed to be interested in trading up for Addison, and the Chiefs and Saints each were also connected to move-ups for the last of this year’s first-round wideouts. But Minnesota stood pat and prioritized a Jefferson complement.

A shifty prospect who has impressed in camp, Addison will provide more elusiveness compared to Thielen, while perhaps stripping away some reliability. Addison exploded as a sophomore at Pittsburgh, catching 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 TDs. The slender target did not match that lofty production at USC last season, but he steps into an enviable situation. If T.J. Hockenson keeps up his late-season pace, Addison will slide in as a third option, which seems like a good place for the rookie.

Blackmon joins Andrew Booth as recent Day 2 cornerback investments. Booth has not taken the step forward the Vikings would have liked, and he has played behind Blackmon, 2022 fourth-rounder Akayleb Evans and Joejuan Williams in camp. Addison’s college teammate, Blackmon could have a path to regular playing time early. If Booth does not seize a role for a thin Vikings CB corps, it is safe to question if the defender — drafted to play in a defensive scheme scrapped after one season — will live up to his draft slot.

Other:

Fired DC Ed Donatell; hired Brian Flores as replacement
Picked up $19.74MM fifth-year option on WR Justin Jefferson; declined WR Jalen Reagor‘s $12.99MM option
Far apart on extension terms with TE T.J. Hockenson
Assistant QBs coach Jerrod Johnson joined Texans’ staff

A longtime Vic Fangio lieutenant, Donatell had held DC jobs in the past (with the Packers and Falcons). This one did not go well. Even with rebound seasons from Hunter, Za’Darius Smith and Patrick Peterson, Donatell’s defense could not be relied upon. Enter Flores, who used a one-season stay as the Steelers’ linebackers coach to vault back onto the coordinator radar. Flores, 42, interviewed for the Cardinals’ HC job, generating momentum to align with ex-Patriots coworker Monti Ossenfort. But Flores is believed to have removed himself from consideration for the position, leading him back to the coordinator level.

The Vikings also pursued Ejiro Evero and Sean Desai; the former accepted the Panthers’ DC offer and the latter removed himself from Minnesota’s search, ending up in Philly. Flores’ discrimination lawsuit against the NFL and a handful of teams is ongoing, but teams have still valued the three-year Dolphins HC. Miami’s defense improved significantly under Flores, ranking sixth in points allowed in 2021. Clashes with management burned Flores in Florida; he will attempt to move back toward the HC carousel in Minnesota. Though, Donatell probably had better pieces than Flores does.

Few teams have enjoyed an easier fifth-year option call than the Vikings’ Jefferson transaction, and the below-market salary ties the All-Pro to the team through 2024. In the option era (2014-present), no team has extended a first-round wideout with two years of control remaining. Early word surfaced about preliminary extension talks, and Adofo-Mensah predictably indicated an intention to keep superstar target long term. Later this year, however, a report pegged the Vikings as more interested in a 2024 Jefferson extension. That will tether the player with the most receiving yards through three seasons (by a massive margin) to a $2.4MM base salary this year.

Jefferson did not stage a hold-in, and other megastars (Aaron Donald, Nick Bosa) have played out their fourth rookie-deal seasons. The salary cap being set for another big jump in 2024 will benefit Jefferson, who could command an AAV close to $35MM. Tyreek Hill‘s $30MM-per-year contract tops the receiver market, but the Dolphins backloaded that deal to create that average. Even if Jefferson does not reach $35MM per year, he should not need a phony final year to prop up his AAV when the time comes.

A Jefferson extension will raise the receiver ceiling. As of now, the top wideout salary nearly doubles the tight end leader. Hockenson, understandably, wants to reset the tight end market. Rob Gronkowski‘s six-year Patriots extension (in 2012) froze the market for years, and Travis Kelce‘s $14.3MM re-up in 2020 did not break all of the ice. Tight ends are underpaid, and the Vikings trading two Day 2 picks for Hockenson gives the ex-Lion negotiating power. But Hockenson (one 800-plus-yard season) is not on the Kelce tier, nor is he where George Kittle or Mark Andrews reside.

Will the Vikings authorize a deal that moves Hockenson, 26, past Darren Waller‘s $17MM position-record AAV with full knowledge they will soon need to give Jefferson receiver-record dough? It does not seem like they want that arrangement, but Hockenson — who may well be holding in — is making an effort.

Top 10 cap charges for 2023:

Danielle Hunter, OLB: $20.95MM
Kirk Cousins, QB: $20.25MM
Brian O’Neill, RT: $19.66MM
Harrison Smith, S: $11.83MM
T.J. Hockenson, TE: $9.33MM
Harrison Phillips, DL: $6.83MM
Marcus Davenport, OLB: $6.2MM
Jordan Hicks, ILB: $5MM
Justin Jefferson, WR: $4.18MM
Christian Darrisaw, LT: $3.64MM

Big-picture contract questions surround the Vikings, who certainly are not being treated like a team coming off a 13-4 season. Las Vegas has them firmly behind the Lions for NFC North title odds. The Vikings’ offseason decisions also pointed to this regime not buying into last year’s surprising success. With Spielman-era staples near the end, this could become the transition year most expected from the Vikings in 2022. But the team still has promising pieces — particularly on offense — to launch a viable repeat bid in a division without a surefire contender.

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