PFR Originals News & Rumors

Top 3 Offseason Needs: New Orleans Saints

February 21st, 2017 at 9:56pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New Orleans Saints, who finished third in the NFC South after posting their third consecutive 7-9 record.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Chris Banjo, S (RFA)
Sam Barrington, LB
Travaris Cadet, RB
Justin Drescher, LS
Kasim Edebali, DE (RFA)
Jahri Evans, G
Nick Fairley, DT
Roman Harper, S
Tim Hightower, RB
Tony Hills, LT
Shiloh Keo, S
Paul Kruger, DE
Tim Lelito, G
Michael Mauti, LB
Sterling Moore, CB
John Phillips, TE
Jamarca Sanford, S
Willie Snead, WR (ERFA)
Darryl Tapp, DE
Jason Trusnik, LB
B.W. Webb, CB
Kyle Wilson, CB

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Drew Brees, QB: $19,000,000
Cameron Jordan, DE: $12,047,000
Terron Armstead, LT: $11,500,000
Jairus Byrd, S: $11,200,000
Coby Fleener, TE: $7,500,000
Max Unger, C: $7,400,000
Kenny Vaccaro, S: $5,676,000
Mark Ingram, RB: $5,345,000
Zach Strief, T: $5,100,000
Thomas Morstead, P: $4,700,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $29,557,284
11th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for WR Brandin Cooks

Three Needs:

1. Find an edge rusher to play opposite Cameron Jordan: The Saints ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass in 2016, and much of that poor showing can be attributed to the club’s lack of pass rush. Defensive end Cameron Jordan led the team with 7.5 sacks, defensive tackle — and pending free agent — Nick Fairley was second with 6.5, and no other New Orleans defender posted more than four quarterback takedowns. Overall, the Saints finished 27th in team sacks and 28th in adjusted sack percentage.

Edge rushers Darryl Tapp and Paul Kruger are both headed for the free agent market, and while one or both could be retained, neither should be viewed as a priority one item. Instead, the Saints are likely going to look towards free agency and the draft in order to bring in new talent, especially given that New Orleans head coach Sean Payton said adding pass rush help is a “must.” Typically up against the salary cap, the Saints have nearly $30MM with which to work this offseason, and could clear more room by cutting ties with veterans such as Jairus Byrd and Thomas Morstead.

Given that the Cardinals’ Chandler Jones and the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul seem increasingly likely to be franchised by their respective clubs, the top edge defender on the market could be Melvin Ingram, who’s managed 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons with the Chargers. Ingram, 27, is also a candidate for the tag, but it’s unclear if a rebuilding Los Angeles team is willing to tie up ~$15MM in cap space on a single player. If he does reach the open market, Ingram should be the number one target for the Saints, who should have some familiarity with him given that former Chargers linebackers coach Mike Nolan now holds the same role in New Orleans.

Outside of the top few options, the free agent defensive end class is relatively barren, and the Saints could be forced to go bargain hunting. Datone Jones is still only 26 years old and has never seemed to fit in the Packers’ 3-4 look, but he could look to restart his career as an end in New Orleans’ 4-3 scheme. Ryan Davis posted 10 sacks for the Jaguars in 2014-15, and though his performance stalled last year, a move back to end could help. Veterans such as Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney could be targets on one-year deals, while Elvis Dumervil could also intrigue the Saints if he’s released by Baltimore.

If the Saints don’t find what they’re looking for in free agency, the trade market might offer at least one interesting solution in the form of Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson. Although New Orleans wasn’t among the list of teams that reportedly inquired on Richardson last year, the 26-year-old could be a nice fit as a defensive end under coordinator Dennis Allen. A player-for-player trade might even make sense — former first-round pick Stephone Anthony has apparently fallen out of favor with the Saints, and it’s possible New York would have interest in resurrecting his young career.

When April rolls around, New Orleans will have yet another opportunity to add edge players when the draft begins. The Saints hold the 11th overall selection, and figure to target a pass rusher with that pick. ESPN draftniks Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay both see New Orleans drafting a defensive end, as Kiper recently mocked Michigan’s Taco Charlton to the Saints while McShay thinks Stanford’s Solomon Thomas will head east. Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) and Jonathan Allen (Alabama) won’t be available when the Saints’ turn comes up, but Derek Barnett (Tennessee), Charles Harris (Oklahoma), and Carl Lawson (Auburn) could be in consideration.

2. Defend the middle of the field: Although the Saints struggled against outside receivers in 2016, health should help ameliorate that problem in 2017. Delvin Breaux, Damian Swann, P.J. Williams, and Kyle Wilson combined to play 240 snaps last year thanks to a myriad of injuries, so if that group can return to full strength next season, regression to the mean should help New Orleans’ progress against pass-catchers.

The more pressing area of need for the Saints, then, is finding defenders who can guard the middle of the field. Last year, New Orleans ranked 27th in DVOA against “other” wide receivers (typically slot men), 22nd against tight ends, and dead last against running backs catching passes out of the backfield. The Saints failed to defend routes that took opposing players over the middle or down the seam, meaning the club needs to target linebackers and safeties this offseason.

New Orleans, like a number of NFL teams, has become increasingly fond of deploying a three-safety look, substituting an extra back end defender in lieu of a linebacker. Jairus Byrd, Kenny Vaccaro, and Vonn Bell all played more than 700 snaps last season, while veteran Roman Harper added another 300 of his own. Harper is unlikely to be re-signed, while Byrd is also likely on the outs. Signed to a massive $54MM contract in 2014, Byrd has never lived up to that deal during his time with the Saints, and the club can clear $7.8MM in cap space by designating him a post-June 1 cut.

With Byrd potentially gone, the Saints would need to add another defensive back, and an ideal situation might be landing either Ohio State’s Malik Hooker or LSU’s Jamal Adams in the first round of the draft. Either scenario is probably closer to pipe dream than reality, however, as both safeties rank among Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com‘s top-four overall players. Budda Baker (Washington) or Marcus Williams (Utah) are more practical targets that could be available on Day 2, while Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers — who is expected to play something of a hybrid safety/linebacker role in the pros — could be exactly what the Saints are looking for.

In free agency, New Orleans should have a number of other options, although the club probably won’t be in the running for Tony Jefferson, who is expected to be the second-highest paid safety this offseason behind Eric Berry. The Saints aren’t in cap hell anymore, but spending extravagantly to bring in a third safety isn’t fiscally responsible. Instead, New Orleans should target more affordable players who can still contribute, such as Jahleel Addae (Chargers), Duron Harmon (Patriots), Rashad Johnson (Titans), or Quintin Demps (Texans).

The Saints should be expected to show interest in Marcus Gilchrist if he’s released by the Jets, while another, more high-profile New York defensive back could also be on New Orleans’ radar. Darrelle Revis is currently in legal hot water after an altercation that left two men unconscious, but if the charges are ultimately lessened or dropped, Revis may not be subject to a league-imposed suspension. Nevertheless, he’s still likely to be released by Gang Green, and if he’s willing to move to safety, Revis could make for an interesting addition to the Saints’ secondary.

In addition to safeties, New Orleans should also make a run at a free agent linebacker, and perhaps expend a mid-round pick on the position, as well. In Nathan Stupar and Craig Robertson, the Saints already employ two ‘backers who can defend the run, so the club needs to go after mid-level defenders who are capable of stopping opposing running backs and tight ends. The Bills’ Zach Brown, the Cardinals’ Kevin Minter, and the Raiders’ Perry Riley are earned top-30 coverage grades according to Pro Football Focus, and while Brown and Minter could each command more than $6MM annually, Riley should be a more economical signing.

3. Reinforce the interior offensive line: There’s no question the Saints offensive line was among the league’s best in 2016: the unit ranked first in adjusted line yards, fifth in adjusted sack rate, and finished 12th in Pro Football Focus’ year end rankings. However, the recent success enjoyed by New Orleans’ front five doesn’t mean the line won’t face questions in the very near future, and the Saints should tackle those potential concerns now rather than later.

2015 first-round pick Andrus Peat seems to be the fulcrum for the Saints’ offensive line, and his ability to play multiple positions will factor into New Orleans’ plans. Last year, Peat split time between left guard and left tackle, spending much of the year filling in for an injured Terron Armstead on Drew Brees‘ blindside. Peat’s long-term future isn’t on the left side, though, as he’s considered the successor to current right tackle Zach Strief, as Larry Holder of the Times-Picayune detailed today. Strief, 33, is likely to continue his career through at least the 2017 campaign, but Peat will probably take over right tackle after that.

Center should be locked down for the next several seasons by Max Unger, who is signed through 2019 after agreeing to an extension last summer. Right guard, though, is in flux. New Orleans brought back longtime Saint Jahri Evans for another go-round last year, and while he graded as the league’s No. 36 guard according to PFF, the 33-year-old Evans isn’t the long-term answer on the interior. While Evans could provide another seasons of production in 2017, the Saints need to start looking at guard options, especially given that interior line play is critical for the 6’0″ Brees.

No collegiate guard/center prospect is worth a top-15 pick this year, so the Saints will be forced to address the position on Day 2 or 3. In the second round, New Orleans could go after Forrest Lamp (Western Kentucky), Dan Feeney (Indiana), or Isaac Asiata (Utah), whom Rob Rang of CBSSports.com favorably compares to Raiders guard Gabe Jackson. Alabama’s Cam Robinson, meanwhile, is generally viewed as a tackle prospect, but Mike Mayock of NFL.com recently listed him at the guard position. If Robinson tumbles to the second round, the Saints could pounce.

If New Orleans re-signs Evans, the club probably doesn’t need to venture into the free agency for additional help. But if Evans isn’t in the Saints’ 2017 plans, the team will need to scour the market for a new right guard. The Saints do have internal options in Tim Lelito (a pending free agent) and Senio Kelemete, but both are probably best served in reserve roles. Instead, New Orleans could target someone like the recently-released Brandon Fusco, the Packers’ J.C. Tretter, or failed former first-round picks Jonathan Cooper or Chance Warmack. Orlando Franklin and/or D.J. Fluker — both of whom could be soon be cut by the Chargers — could also make sense.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Tampa Bay Bucs

February 20th, 2017 at 8:37pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who added three wins to their 2015 record to finish 9-7 under first-year head coach Dirk Koetter.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Jude Adjei-Barimah, CB (ERFA)
Cameron Brate, TE (ERFA)
Gosder Cherilus, T
Chris Conte, S
Andrew DePaola, LS (RFA)
William Gholston, DE
Adarius Glanton, LB (ERFA)
Mike Glennon, QB
Ryan Griffin, QB (RFA)
Joe Hawley, C
John Hughes, DT
Adam Humphries, WR (ERFA)
Vincent Jackson, WR
Howard Jones, LB (ERFA)
Freddie Martino, WR (ERFA)
Bradley McDougald, S
Brandon Myers, TE
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB
Josh Robinson, CB
Russell Shepard, WR
Cecil Shorts, WR
Sealver Siliga, DT
Antone Smith, RB
Jacquies Smith, DE (RFA)
Daryl Smith, LB
Akeem Spence, DT

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Gerald McCoy, DT: $13,750,000
Brent Grimes, CB: $8,000,000
Doug Martin, RB: $7,000,000
Jameis Winston, QB: $6,913,985
Alterraun Verner, CB: $6,500,000
Robert Ayers, DE: $6,250,000
Lavonte David, LB: $6,000,000
J.R. Sweezy, G: $5,000,000
Mike Evans, WR: $4,655,478
Evan Smith, OL: $4,500,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $61,926,718
19th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for WR Mike Evans

Three Needs:

1. Grab a No. 2 wide receiver: The Buccaneers’ offense had its successes in 2016, as quarterback Jameis Winston took a leap in his sophomore campaign, wide receiver Mike Evans ranked among the NFL’s top-six receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, and the offense as a whole finished 18th in DVOA. Tampa Bay’s running game struggled — we’ll address ways to fix that facet of the club a bit later — but the more pressing need for the Bucs is at receiver, where the team lacks depth beyond Evans.

Tight end Cameron Brate ranked second among Tampa receivers in catches, yards, and scores, and adds a solid dimension to the Buccaneers offense, while Adam Humphries managed 55 receptions for 622 yards and two touchdowns. Humphries, 24, garnered the second-most targets in Tampa Bay’s offense, and while he’s a reliable security blanket for Winston, Humphries is best served in the slot. Veteran Cecil Shorts, meanwhile, suffered a potentially career-ending injury last December and won’t be back, meaning the rest of the Buccaneers wide receiver depth chart is comprised of Josh Huff, Freddie Martino, Donteea Dye, and Bernard Reedy.

In addition to Shorts, other internal free agents exist at the wideout position. Veteran Vincent Jackson, now 34 years old, is coming off a partial ACL tear and could theoretically opt for retirement given that he’s only played in 15 games over the past two seasons. Jackson, though, is a respected presence in the Tampa Bay locker room, and a cheap re-signing isn’t out of the question, as Roy Cummings of FanRag Sports recently detailed. Russell Shepard, too, is heading for the open market, but is viewed as a “priority” free agent after another campaign as an excellent special-teamer.

Even if Jackson and Shepard return, though, the Buccaneers will still have a need for a standout No. 2 receiver who can help Evans threaten opposing defenses. In free agency, Redskins pass-catcher DeSean Jackson stands out as one option who could interest Tampa Bay. Jackson, 30, is expected to garner a double-digit yearly salary, but could add another feature to Tampa’s offense. While averaging 17.9 yards per reception, Jackson led the league in yards per catch for the second time in three seasons, evidence of his deep-ball acumen. Jackson’s teammate Pierre Garcon could also be on the Buccaneers’ radar, though he’s more of a possession receiver, and the Bucs weren’t among the recent list of teams expected to express interest in Garcon.

Elsewhere on the free agent market, Michael Floyd looks like an obvious fit for Tampa Bay, especially given that Bucs general manager Jason Licht was a member of the Cardinals’ front office when Arizona made Floyd a top-15 overall pick in 2012. Even with Floyd’s off-field concerns, the Buccaneers would face competition for Floyd’s services, including from the Patriots, who hope to re-sign the pending free agent. Tampa could eye Vikings’ wideout Cordarrelle Patterson as it looks to improve its special teams unit — the Bucs lost 8.7 points of field position on kick returns and 2.1 points of field position on punt returns in 2016 — while Terrance Williams, Kamar Aiken, and Robert Woods might also interest the club.

The Buccaneers could also pursue a few pass-catchers who aren’t actually on the open market just yet: if the Jets release either of Brandon Marshall or Eric Decker, Tampa might jump at the chance to add a dependable veteran to play opposite Evans in “12” personnel. Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap recently placed both Marshall and Decker on his list of potential wide receiver cuts, and while Marshall says he hasn’t heard anything from New York about his future with the team, he could certainly hit free agency in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the 49ers may be willing to trade Torrey Smith, who could offer a Jackson-like deep threat to the Bucs’ offense.

The draft represents yet another avenue by which Tampa Bay can acquire wide receiver talent, and while the club likely won’t be able to land Clemson’s Mike Williams barring a trade up in the first round, Western Michigan’s Corey Davis is a legitimate target at pick No. 19, and was recently mocked to the Buccaneers by Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com. Davis will miss the scouting combine after undergoing ankle surgery, while fellow Round 1 option John Ross (Washington) is expected to go under the knife after the combine, but both receivers should be ready for training camp. Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington), Zay Jones (East Carolina), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC) could figure into Tampa’s Day 2 plans.

2. Solve the running game: Just last spring, the Buccaneers re-signed Doug Martin to a five-year, $35.75MM contract that contained $15MM in full guarantees. Given that he’d rushed for more than 1,400 yards the season prior, Martin was expected to carry Tampa Bay’s offense once again, but injuries and a PED suspension derailed his 2016 campaign, as the 28-year-old ultimately played in only eight games and posted just 2.9 yards per carry.

Tampa Bay hardly ever uses signing bonuses, and given that Martin’s aforementioned drug ban voided his remaining guaranteed money, the Bucs could theoretically part ways with Martin without incurring any dead money. That doesn’t appear to be the team’s strategy, however, as Tampa might hold onto Martin for the time being. It’s a smart approach given Martin’s lack of guarantees, and because he’s suspended for the first three weeks of the 2017 season, the Bucs can hold off on making a decision on his future until nearly a month into the campaign.

Not only does retaining Martin (for now) make fiscal sense, but the Buccaneers don’t have another viable running back readily available to step into the starting role. Longtime NFL backup Jacquizz Rodgers handled the lion’s share of the carries in Martin’s absence and finished with 560 yards on the ground, but he’s a free agent and Tampa reportedly hasn’t begun negotiations at present. Second-year pro Peyton Barber managed only 55 carries last year, while Russell Hansbrough is essentially a complete unknown.

If Martin is ultimately released, the Buccaneers will almost be forced to add another back, either through free agency or the draft. Tampa probably wouldn’t go after another pricey runner such as Latavius Murray, but Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy could be a fit (especially if he is only able to garner a $2MM deal, as one agent recently speculated). If the Buccaneers want to find an RB who can handle early down, between the tackles work, LeGarrette Blount or Tim Hightower could be in the cards. But if the club wants to run a more uptempo, passing-based offense, a receiving back such like Rex Burkhead, Travaris Cadet, or Danny Woodhead might be of intrigue.

Free agency may not offer what Tampa Bay is looking for, meaning the team could look to collegiate prospects at it searches for a backfield solution. LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Florida State’s Dalvin Cook will almost certainly be off the board by the time the Bucs pick in Round 1, and while Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently mocked Tennessee’s Alvin Kamara to Tampa at pick No. 19, the Buccaneers may not want to reach for a back that few rank as a clear first-rounder. Instead, the club could wait until Day 2 or 3 and target someone like D’Onta Foreman (Texas), Matthew Dayes (NC State), or even take a risk on Oklahoma’s Joe Mixon (though targeting a runner with off-field question marks might not be tenable given Martin’s recent uncertainty).

Improving the offensive line also needs to be on Tampa Bay’s itinerary, as the club’s front five ranked 21st in adjusted line yards and dead last in stuffed percentage, which ranks how often running backs were stopped behind the line of scrimmage (both are Football Outsiders metrics). Donovan Smith was probably the Buccaneers’ worst offensive lineman last season, but the team will likely give the former second-round pick at least one more year to right the ship. The return of 2016 free agent acquisition J.R. Sweezy — who missed all of 2016 due to injury — should help, but Tampa still needs help on the interior.

Center Joe Hawley is a free agent and could be replaced, but outside of J.C. Tretter and Stefen Wisniewski, there aren’t a ton of pivots on the open market. One option could be shifting guard Ali Marpet to the middle, and drafting/signing a new guard. 25-year-old Larry Warford, formerly of the Lions, would make sense for an up-and-coming Buccaneers roster, while Brandon Fusco could add a veteran presence to a young front five. Draft prospects Forrest Lamp (Western Kentucky), Cam Robinson (Alabama), Antonio Garcia (Troy), and Dan Feeney (Indiana) should be in consideration for Tampa in Round 1 or 2.

3. Solidify the defensive backfield: The Buccaneers might have employed the NFL’s worst safety tandem last year in the form of Chris Conte and Bradley McDougald, and now that both are unrestricted free agents, Tampa Bay should take the opportunity to improve its secondary by adding fresh faces. Internal option Keith Tandy shined after taking over for Conte midway through the 2016 campaign, grading as the league’s No. 22 safety on 402 defensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus, so the 28-year-old may have played his way into a starting role.

Tandy’s ascension would still leave one safety vacancy to be filled, however, but Tampa is unlikely to find a starting safety in the first round of the draft, especially given that LSU’s Jamal Adams and Ohio State’s Malik Hooker are expected to be top-15 selections (at worst). Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers is a fringe first-round prospect, but given that he may have to convert to linebacker at the NFL level, he’s probably not the type of center field defender the Bucs are looking for. Washington’s Budda Baker (whom Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com compares to Arizona’s Tyrann Mathieu), Utah’s Marcus Williams, and Florida’s Marcus Maye are among the defensive backs that could be on the board on Day 2.

More likely, the Buccaneers will go the free agent route as it hunts for a new back-end defender, and one available player that could fit Tampa’s needs like a glove is Cardinals defensive back Tony Jefferson, who is set to hit the unrestricted free agent market for the first time in his career. Like Michael Floyd, Jefferson joined Arizona while current Tampa GM Jason Licht was on the Cards’ staff, meaning the Buccaneers’ front office has some level of familiarity with the 25-year-old. Jefferson, who ranked as PFF’s No. 5 safety last year, is expected to become the second-highest paid player at his position behind Eric Berry.

In addition to Jefferson, other free agents that may receive calls from Tampa Bay include fellow Cardinal D.J. Swearinger (who’s already had one stint with the Bucs), Barry Church, Micah Hyde, or Quintin Demps, who has said he won’t offer a hometown discount to stay in Houston. Other safeties may hit the market in the coming weeks after being released, and Jairus Byrd (Saints), Tyvon Branch (Cardinals), and Marcus Gilchrist (Jets) should expect interest from the Buccaneers.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Detroit Lions

February 19th, 2017 at 8:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Detroit Lions, who managed to make the playoffs for the second time in three years and third time this decade. But the team backed into the NFC bracket, closing the regular season with three losses, and did not fare well in a wild-card loss to the Seahawks. This leaves many offseason questions ahead.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Joique Bell, RB
Anquan Boldin, WR
Jonathan Bostic, LB
Rafael Bush, S
Crezdon Butler, CB
Josh Bynes, LB
Stefan Charles, DT
Brandon Copeland, LB (ERFA)
Clay Harbor, TE
Kerry Hyder, DL (ERFA)
Asa Jackson, CB
T.J. Jones, WR (ERFA)
Cornelius Lucas, T (RFA)
Don Muhlbach, LS
Matthew Mulligan, TE
Dan Orlovsky, QB
Riley Reiff, T
Garrett Reynolds, T
Andre Roberts, WR
Khyri Thornton, DT (RFA)
Tyrunn Walker, DL
Larry Warford, G
Tim Wright, TE

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Matthew Stafford, QB: $22,000,000
Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $12,734,000
Darius Slay, CB: $10,681,250
Marvin Jones, WR: $8,600,000
Golden Tate, WR: $8,351,250
DeAndre Levy, LB: $8,225,000
Glover Quin, S: $7,827,500
Haloti Ngata, DT: $7,703,125
Tahir Whitehead, LB: $4,550,000
Matt Prater, K: $4,325,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via OverTheCap): $32,797,575
Twenty-first pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for TE Eric Ebron

Three Needs:

1.) Stock the second level: Since signing the four-year, $33.74MM extension prior to the 2015 season, DeAndre Levy has contributed staggeringly little to the Lions’ cause. Playing in just six games and making only 21 tackles the past two seasons, Levy can no longer be counted on to be available. But he’s still Detroit’s best linebacker and has three years and almost $19MM remaining on his deal. The Lions will likely see if Levy can retain the form that led the team to extend him, but Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press notes a Levy pay cut request could be forthcoming after the soon-to-be 30-year-old weak-side man’s observed his value depreciate. Levy, however, won’t need further surgery on his right knee, which plagued him in 2016 after a hip injury harpooned his 2015 slate. Just $1.75MM of Levy’s 2017 salary ($5.75MM) is guaranteed against injury for 2017, becoming fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year. But thoughts of cutting the previous outside standout would basically mean starting over at linebacker, because the Lions are reeling here.

Levy’s extension thus far burning the Lions gives them no surefire answers on their defensive second level. Despite his 122 tackles far and away leading the team, Tahir Whitehead encountered mixed reviews. Pro Football Focus did not think the statistics gelled with Whitehead’s play level, ranking the 26-year-old as the league’s second-worst full-time linebacker last season. Whitehead is signed through 2017 after inking a two-year, $8MM extension last March. The Lions’ second-leading tackler among linebackers, Josh Bynes, is a pending UFA. A fifth-round pick from 2016, Antwione Williams, and a former waiver claim (Thurston Armbrister) represent the only other ‘backers under contract.

A group that appeared solid a couple of seasons ago, with Levy and the since-released Stephen Tulloch manning positions, could use reinforcements. Football Outsiders ranked the Lions last in defensive DVOA in 2016, and although Detroit’s defense ranked 18th in terms of rushing yards allowed, this is a primary need area.

It’s not a great year to need a non-rush linebacker, particularly if a team is seeking outside help in a 4-3. Assuming Levy returns to commandeer the weak-side spot (big if, obviously), the Lions may need two new starters. As far as 4-3 OLBs go, it’s an incredibly thin contingent.

Malcolm Smith now profiles as player with significant starting experience compared to his initial free agency foray in 2015, when he was coming off a stay as a Seahawks contributor. Smith, though, did not impress much in Oakland despite being the Raiders’ most-used pure linebacker the past two seasons. Beyond that, Bynes, Keenan Robinson and Barkevious Mingo loom as undesirable options. Bob Quinn‘s former team traded for Mingo last year, but the former No. 6 overall pick made little impact. The 27-year-old Bynes could conceivably be back on a cheap deal. He signed a two-year pact with Detroit in 2015 but saw an injury lead to his release. The Kyle Van Noy trade re-routed Bynes to the Motor City, where he started eight games last season and earned a middling PFF grade — but tops among Lions linebackers. The Lions still may be better off targeting a rookie in the early rounds to fill this need.

If the team would be open to converting a 3-4 inside man to the outside, more options are available. Zach Brown and Kevin Minter are each coming off quality seasons and will be looking to cash in, Brown (149 tackles with the Bills in 2016) especially after settling for a one-year deal as a UFA last year. A middle linebacker in the Raiders’ base 4-3 set but a player used on passing downs as well, Perry Riley stands to be available after re-emerging last season. Settling for one of the other talents here — unless it’s Lawrence Timmons, whom the Steelers are considering keeping — doesn’t make much sense. It could be time for an early-round investment.

The Lions have mostly avoided linebackers in Round 1, with Ernie Sims (2006) representing the last such selection. They went for Van Noy in Round 2 three years ago, but he’s the only second-rounder the franchise has used on this position in the past nine years. A 2009 third-round choice, Levy joins many modern non-rush linebackers in showing that filling this spot with later-round draft picks can work. However, his own standing with the team presently could induce an early selection to help tilt the odds in the Lions’ favor.

Most mainstream mock drafts do not have the Lions going for a linebacker with their No. 1 pick, but Detroit has talent at every other level of its defense that will return. Be it Ziggy Ansah, Darius Slay, or Glover Quin. This defense needs help at multiple spots, but if Levy can’t return to regular duty, no such cornerstone cog exists at linebacker. And even if the ninth-year player does return to form, counting on it to last may be asking too much.

A chasm exists between Reuben Foster and the rest of the traditional linebackers in this rookie class. Jarrad Davis could be the No. 2 pure ‘backer on the board by the time No. 21 comes around, and the ex-Florida talent’s ankle troubles — which will force him to miss Combine workouts — could scare off teams in the teens from making that pick. Of course, the Lions themselves dealing with a chronically injured linebacker may make drafting Davis a difficult proposition. He of 125 tackles (16.5 for loss) in 13 games, Vanderbilt’s Zach Cunningham is viewed as a late-first-round talent as well. It’s doubtful Ohio State’s Raekwon McMillan will be there when the Lions’ second-round window opens. Foster’s lesser-regarded teammate, Ryan Anderson, could be, however.

This is not a bad need to have when it comes to bringing in young talent, as recent Day 2 picks Deion Jones and Jordan Hicks showed in becoming instant contributors the past two years.

2.) Give Ansah some help: The Lions may have located an Ansah sidekick out of nowhere in Kerry Hyder, an ex-UDFA who came off the bench for the most part and led the team with eight sacks in his second season. No other Lion currently under contract finished with more than two. Hyder will be back as an ERFA, but the Lions’ D-line is thin both inside and outside. Devin Taylor, Tyrunn Walker and Armonty Bryant are UFAs for a team with middling cap space, and Haloti Ngata is going into his age-34 season and another contract campaign. Detroit drafted Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson in the second round last year. He saw 446 snaps, but the jury’s still out.

Nevertheless, the Lions could lose a sizable sect of their rotation up front. This could be construed as a greater need due to the resources required to make pass-rush fortifications.

Detroit’s 26 sacks ranked in a tie for the second-fewest in the league, and Ansah’s troubles with a high ankle sprain contributed to that number. However, the talented edge player only missed three games and regressed from a standout 2015 (14.5 sacks). Detroit needs assistance here while being cognizant obviously of Ansah (two sacks in 2016) entering his fifth-year option season. Currently, the Lions don’t have any defensive linemen signed through 2018 making more than $1.5MM. That should change once Ansah is extended or franchise-tagged, but if Quinn is going to authorize a big outside payment this offseason, this would be the spot to do so.

There are options at 4-3 defensive end. Jason Pierre-Paul fronts the group, but his salary demands could easily make a team that likely has Ansah extension plans balk. PFR’s Zach Links regards Pierre-Paul as a strong franchise tag candidate as well. Beyond JPP, Jabaal Sheard makes sense to investigate. He arrived in New England during Quinn’s stay with the team, making a big difference for the 2015 Patriots as a role player before regressing to the level of being a game-day inactive at one point this season. Sheard still made 13 sacks with the Patriots in two seasons and registered at least 7.5 during three of his six NFL slates. The 27-year-old Sheard’s contract-year issues may make teams wary of paying him, but reasonable upside exists.

Panthers defensive ends Mario Addison and Charles Johnson could hit the market, with Dave Gettleman‘s top priority being Kawann Short. Both edge players want to stay in Charlotte, but Addison in particular may be eager to test the market after breaking out with a 9.5-sack slate. As a reserve, Addison registered 22 sacks over the past three years. He will turn 30 before the season, though, presumably intensifying a desire to get paid now even on a medium-length deal.

Lions mock drafts have the team eyeing this spot. Tennessee’s Derek Barnett (32 sacks in three seasons), Michigan’s Taco Charlton (15.5 sacks between 2015-16) and Alabama’s Tim Williams (16 tackles for loss in ’16) comprise three pass-rushers linked to the Motor City. Florida defensive tackle Caleb Brantley and Michigan State’s Malik McDowell would be in range as well, representing a path Detroit would have to consider given that only two DTs reside on its offseason roster.

Some 4-3 defensive tackles make sense on the market, with Alan Branch spending two years with the Patriots during Quinn’s stay. The 32-year-old would be a stopgap solution, though, which isn’t exactly what the Lions need since Ngata now qualifies as such. Just 24, Johnathan Hankins has shown flashes as an interior pass-rusher. He racked up seven sacks in 2014, and the Giants may have a difficult time keeping him now that Pierre-Paul looms as a tag candidate (thus, a $16MM-plus payment). Hankins resides in a class with Kawann Short, Dontari Poe, Bennie Logan and Brandon Williams, which would ordinarily be a loaded contingent if each was going to hit the market. Since that won’t be the case, Hankins makes sense as a scheme fit, having always played in a 4-3.

Nonetheless, multiple contributors will be sought to help here. What remains to be seen are the kind of funds Quinn will allocate to this spot.

3.) Replenish the offensive front: The two offensive linemen most associated with the Lions’ intermittent run of success during the mid-2010s, Riley Reiff and Larry Warford, are UFAs. Warford is likely to test free agency and will join a talented group of guards as unattached veterans. Nothing much has emerged on the Reiff front, but the sixth-year lineman saw the Lions relocate him to right tackle in 2016. He may be looking to return to the better-compensated tackle spot. Reiff had a decent season, but in a weak class of tackles, the former first-round pick could see his price rise. At 28, this could be the edge blocker’s lone chance at a lucrative payday on the market, so the Lions could be looking at having to fill two spots up front, at least.

Detroit already ranked 31st in adjusted line yards last season, with that evidence showing in Theo Riddick‘s Lions-leading 357 rushing yards (in just 10 games). This section could be dedicated to improving the ground game as a whole, but Ameer Abdullah figures to be given another chance — although, 2017 might be his last opportunity as a starter — and Riddick is a proven change-of-pace back. What lies in front of the team’s top ball-carriers will be an issue if both aforementioned incumbents leave.

Now that Reiff’s fifth-year option season concluded, Lions’ line does not house a veteran salary. This leaves some potential for funding to be routed here.

Warford’s potential defection and Laken Tomlinson‘s shaky start puts the Lions in the market for one of the talented guards. Of course, signing one of them might take money most teams are unaccustomed to paying an interior blocker. Kevin Zeitler, T.J. Lang and Ronald Leary are set to join Warford on the market, and $10MM per year will be a realistic target since Kyle Long and David DeCastro raised the bar for non-Kelechi Osemele guards via 2016 extensions. Chris Chester, Chance Warmack and now Brandon Fusco loom as fallback options for those teams too squeamish to go big in the guard derby. If Warford leaves, the Lions are going to require an experienced replacement since Tomlinson hasn’t proven he can be counted on yet but may again be counted on to start.

Beyond Taylor Decker, 2015 seventh-rounder Corey Robinson is the only tackle on the Lions’ roster. It doesn’t seem likely the team goes after a guard and tackle in free agency with big money considering its defensive needs. Beyond Reiff, Ricky Wagner will be coveted by teams seeking right-edge help. Decker being entrenched on the left side after a quality rookie season makes Detroit’s tackle search rather focused. Andre Smith, Mike Remmers and Jordan Mills are second-tier right tackle options if the team wants to spend at guard. ESPN.com’s Mel Kiper Jr. has the Broncos taking Utah’s Garrett Bolles (ESPN Insider link) one spot ahead of the Lions but places Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramczyk — once thought to be the top tackle in a weak class — within range, sending him to the Seahawks at 26. NFL.com’s Charley Casserly mocks Alabama’s Cam Robinson to Detroit at 21. The team could have to weigh this need against those within its defensive front seven.

There are a number of ways the Lions could go in Round 1 and in free agency, because for a team that’s coming off a playoff berth, there are a healthy amount of areas that require attention.

PFR Originals: 2/12/17 – 2/19/17

February 19th, 2017 at 1:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

The NFL’s franchise tag window opened on February 15 and runs through March 1, leading Zach Links to examine candidates for the tender league-wide. While players such as edge rusher Chandler Jones and Le’Veon Bell look like virtual locks for the tag, cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Trumaine Johnson can best be classified as toss-ups.
The Chiefs are tight on cap space, meaning it could be difficult to retain both safety Eric Berry and defensive tackle Dontari Poe. As such, Sam Robinson asked which player Kansas City is more likely to re-sign (keeping in mind the club can use the franchise tag to keep one around). So far, a plurality of respondents believes the Chiefs will retain Berry but let Poe walk in free agency.
As the offseason progresses, PFR will assess each team by examining the top three needs on each respective roster. We covered two organizations last week:
- Atlanta Falcons
- San Francisco 49ers
Zach answered questions from readers in two PFR chats.

Poll: Will Chiefs Re-Sign Eric Berry, Dontari Poe?

February 18th, 2017 at 6:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Two defenders responsible for helping the Chiefs revitalize their operation in the mid-2010s are now two of the NFL’s most impactful free agents-to-be, and the major question involving Kansas City’s offseason will be if the team can retain both Eric Berry and Dontari Poe.

Each resides either at or near the top of his respective positional hierarchy as far as 2017 UFAs go, and the Chiefs do not stand to possess much in terms of cap space. While the team is expected to pass on Nick Foles‘ option to free up $6.75MM and will likely move on from Jamaal Charles ($6.19MM saved), the prospect of retaining both Berry and Poe will still be daunting.

Berry, of course, played the 2016 season on the franchise tag after the sides couldn’t come close to an agreement last July. The safety delivered maybe his best year, operating as a full-time defender throughout a season for the first time since 2013, and earned first-team All-Pro honors for the third time. Among active safeties, only Earl Thomas has achieved that status as often as Berry.

The safety landscape has also changed since Berry and the Chiefs were last at the bargaining table, with Tyrann Mathieu resetting the market with an extension that pays him $12.5MM annually. So, this could be a complex negotiation, especially considering the 28-year-old safety vowed he won’t play another season on a tag. Nevertheless, PFR’s Zach Links pegs Berry as a strong candidate to be tagged again.

Despite entering his eighth season, Berry has not signed a veteran contract. He played on an old-CBA rookie deal from 2010-15, and after making a triumphant cancer conquest en route to 2015 comeback player of the year acclaim, the Chiefs used the franchise tag to retain him for $10.806MM. Another tag, even as a means to an extension, would cost Kansas City $12.967MM and limit the team regarding Poe or the pursuit of higher-end outside free agents. John Dorsey confirmed the team is discussing re-ups for both players, but Berry’s agent pumped the brakes on Dorsey’s notion the talks are progressing positively. Dorsey’s signed numerous players to extensions, including several drafted by previous regimes, which Berry and Poe were. But being set for the last full season of his 20s, Berry figures to drive hard for a lucrative deal now.

Berry would certainly be the top safety available, while Poe might become the No. 1 defensive tackle on the market. The Panthers plan to use the franchise tag on Kawann Short, and with the Ravens prioritizing a Brandon Williams extension, Poe would induce a nice competition for his services if the Chiefs let the mammoth defender reach free agency. Although he’s a 3-4 nose tackle by trade, it’s likely Poe’s camp will be targeting a deal closer to Fletcher Cox or Marcell Dareus — or at least second-tier 4-3 DTs Michael Brockers ($11MM AAV) or Damon Harrison ($9.25MM AAV) — than traditional 3-4 inside men. A two-time Pro Bowler, Poe will turn 27 before the season begins. While his feelings about the tag aren’t yet known, it’s unlikely he’ll see it as a non-starter the way Berry does. The Chiefs and their largest player weren’t especially close on an extension in 2016. On a fifth-year option last season, Poe made just more than $6MM. A franchise tag would pay the former first-round pick approximately $13.47MM.

Unlike Berry, Poe has not delivered his best work over the past two seasons. A back surgery hampered his 2015 season, and Pro Football Focus graded Poe as its No. 59 interior defender a year later. The Chiefs also may have been planning for a future without their nose guard when they selected Chris Jones in the second round last year. Jones flashed often last season, looking like a long-term starter. Kansas City also has two starting defensive ends — Allen Bailey and Jaye Howard — tethered to the 2017 payroll at $6.16MM and $6.38MM, respectively. So, a Poe accord would stack that unit with veteran salaries and limit the team to some degree at other spots. However, both Bailey and Howard went down with season-ending injuries in 2016, further complicating this equation.

Kansas City stands to possess barely $4MM in cap space before making decisions on Foles and Charles. Due to a run of recent extensions and re-signings, the Chiefs don’t have a lot of other ways to create a quick cash influx. The Chiefs like to backload their deals, a tactic which helped them afford Jeremy Maclin two years ago despite scant cap room. But that strategy will see spikes in some players’ 2017 wages. An offseason featuring a backloaded Berry pact and a Poe tag would leave the team thin in space, and despite the Chiefs not possessing a host of glaring needs, these deals would prevent them from addressing them seriously in free agency.

So, do you see the Chiefs paying to keep both of these players? If so, how will the franchise tag come into play? How much will Berry’s standing as a cornerstone Kansas City athlete and inspirational figure impact his deal? Vote in PFR’s latest poll.

Will the Chiefs keep both Eric Berry and Dontari Poe?

They will retain Berry, but let Poe walk 54.08% (987 votes)

They will keep both Berry and Poe 23.78% (434 votes)

They will retain Poe, but let Berry sign elsewhere 11.84% (216 votes)

Both will depart 10.30% (188 votes)

Total Votes: 1,825

Top 3 Offseason Needs: San Francisco 49ers

February 17th, 2017 at 9:38pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the San Francisco 49ers, who managed only two wins in 2016 and have since hired a new general manager (John Lynch) and a new head coach (Kyle Shanahan).

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Nick Bellore, LB
Carl Bradford, LB (ERFA)
Marcus Cromartie, CB (RFA)
Chris Davis, CB (RFA)
Phil Dawson, K
Shaun Draughn, RB
Jim Dray, TE
Glenn Dorsey, DL
Blaine Gabbert, QB
Andrew Gardner, G
DuJuan Harris, RB (RFA)
Gerald Hodges, LB
Tony Jerod-Eddie, DL
Chris Jones, DL
Jeremy Kerley, WR
Thaddeus Lewis, QB
Quinton Patton, WR
Christian Ponder, QB
Mike Purcell, DT (ERFA)
Rod Streater, WR
Andrew Tiller, G
Michael Wilhoite, LB

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Colin Kaepernick, QB: $19,365,753
Joe Staley, T: $11,056,250
NaVorro Bowman, LB: $9,591,500
Torrey Smith, WR: $9,475,000
Antoine Bethea, S: $7,000,000
Ahmad Brooks, LB: $6,148,750
Eric Reid, S: $5,676,000
Tramaine Brock, CB: $4,300,000
Vance McDonald, TE: $4,165,625
DeForest Buckner, DL: $4,134,316

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $78,688,264
Second pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for CB Jimmie Ward

Three Needs:

1. Solve the quarterback position: The 49ers may have the most needs of any club in the NFL, but the most important void is still at the top of the roster, where San Francisco needs to find a franchise quarterback. Colin Kaepernick is still on the team’s books for now, but he’s considering an opt-out provision that would allow him to reach free agency this spring. Even if he doesn’t opt out, the 49ers could still cut Kaepernick — a move that would save nearly $17MM in cap space — and seek to negotiate a less expensive contract.

While Kaepernick’s fate is still up in the air, new head coach Kyle Shanahan likely wants to put his stamp on the 49ers roster in the form of a new signal-caller, and his No. 1 target figures to be Washington’s Kirk Cousins. Cousins is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March, but the Redskins aren’t going to let him get away without compensation. If Washington deploys the franchise tag on Cousins, San Francisco would be forced to sacrifice two first-round picks (including the second overall selection in 2017) to sign the sixth-year quarterback.

The Redskins prefer to reach a long-term agreement with Cousins, but recent reports have indicated little progress between the two sides. The franchise tender looms as the most likely option, then, and though Shanahan has exhibited an affinity for Cousins ever since he served as Washington’s offensive coordinator, the 49ers aren’t going to give up two first-rounders given all the holes on their roster. A more conventional trade is possible, as the Redskins could franchise Cousins and then consummate a deal for a something fewer than two first-round picks, but San Francisco is probably going to have to look elsewhere to find its next quarterback.

Elsewhere on the trade market, the Patriots’ Jimmy Garoppolo is thought to be next-up on the 49ers’ wishlist, although the price tag could be steep. San Francisco is extremely unlikely to package the No. 2 pick for Garoppolo, so any deal would likely include the club’s early second-rounder. Shanahan was interested in Garoppolo during the 2014 draft, but the 49ers won’t be the only club pushing to acquire the New England backup, as both the Browns and Bears will likely be in the running, as well.

Other veterans that could end up on San Francisco’s radar include the Bengals’ A.J. McCarron (who is open to being traded), the Bills’ Tyrod Taylor (who is likely to be released), or the Falcons’ Matt Schaub, who spent last season as a backup in Atlanta under Shanahan’s tutelage. Schaub, 35, also worked with Shanahan during the pair’s run with the Texans, and is said to be seeking a starting job this offseason. That opportunity could come in San Francisco, where Schaub would likely act as something of a bridge quarterback while the Niners develop a long-term passer.

If the 49ers bring in a late-career veteran like Schaub, Brian Hoyer, or Jay Cutler (to whom the club has already been linked), general manager John Lynch & Co. figure to select a young QB early in the draft. The 2017 class doesn’t feature an outstanding crop of quarterbacks, but San Francisco will have its choice of several signal-callers at the top of Round 1 or even Round 2. Mock drafts have been all over the place, as Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com projects the 49ers to draft UNC’s Mitch Trubisky while fellow ESPN scribe Todd McShay sees San Francisco going after Clemson’s Deshaun Watson. DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) could also be in consideration, while Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) might even be a surprise top pick.

2. Add new offensive weapons: Acquiring a new quarterback should be priority one for the 49ers, but bringing in a new signal-caller won’t have the desired effect if he has no receivers who can get open with regularity. With Jeremy Kerley, Quinton Patton, and Rod Streater headed for free agency, San Francisco’s WR depth chart is comprised of Torrey Smith and bunch of no-names. Aaron Burbridge, Chris Harper, DeAndre Smelter, Bruce Ellington, and Eric Rogers all have youth on their side (at 26, Rogers is the oldest of the group), but the Niners can’t presume any of them will develop into starting-caliber wideouts.

The 49ers should deal with Smith’s status before moving on to wide receiver additions, and while the 28-year-old likely won’t be released (he still has value and San Francisco doesn’t need any extra cap space), Smith is a candidate to be traded when the new league year begins. Philadelphia reportedly inquired on Smith at last year’s trade deadline, and given that they’ve been linked to Alshon Jeffery, Kenny Stills, and others already this year, the Eagles are clearly going after wideout upgrades. If the Niners decide Smith isn’t part of their long-term plans, the Eagles could make for an intriguing trade partner, and a player-for-player deal involving linebacker Mychal Kendricks might interest both clubs.

Smith doesn’t have to be on the move, as he could theoretically fill the Andre Johnson/Julio Jones role in Shanahan’s new offense (a topic addressed by Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com earlier this week). Even if Smith is retained, however, the 49ers need to add several other pass-catching options either through free agency or the draft. One veteran who’s already been linked to San Francisco is Redskins wideout Pierre Garcon, who played under Shanahan in Washington from 2012-13. The definition of a dependable No. 2 receiver, the 30-year-old Garcon could serve as a security blanket for a hypothetically youthful 49ers quarterback.

Taylor Gabriel also has a working relationship with Shanahan, having posted 35 receptions for 579 yards and six touchdowns last year in Atlanta. A restricted free agent, Gabriel won’t be able to reach the free agent market unfettered, as the Falcons have the option of tendering him an RFA offer. With the knowledge that Shanahan would jump at the chance to sign Gabriel, Atlanta will likely tender Gabriel at the first- or second-round level, making a San Francisco acquisition untenable. If the Falcons somehow only tender Gabriel at the original round level, however, he should book his ticket to the Bay Area immediately.

Aside from Gabriel, the restricted free agent market boasts a number of other potential Falcons targets who could come at a lower cost than their unrestricted brethren. Adam Thielen, Dontrelle Inman, Corey Brown, and Albert Wilson are among the pass-catchers who won’t reach the open market without some restriction, and while some members of that group (namely Thielen) will be tendered at a level that discourages pursuit, others could be available draft compensation-free. The Chiefs and Chargers are both in the bottom-10 of clubs in terms of 2017 cap space, so if they try to sneak Wilson and Inman, respectively, through restricted free agency with a low tender, San Francisco should be ready to pounce.

The 49ers boast plenty of cap space, and because they don’t necessarily need to worry about every dollar, they could target a few wide receivers on the unrestricted free agent market. While Alshon Jeffery seems like a lavish investment for a rebuilding team, San Francisco could look at younger free agents such as Kenny Stills (24), Robert Woods (24), Cordarrelle Patterson (26), Kamar Aiken (27), or Markus Wheaton (26). At 30 years old, the Bengals’ Brandon LaFell is entering the twilight of his career, but he was relatively productive in Cincinnati last season, and his excellent run-blocking skills could come in handy in a San Francisco offense that figures to lean on Carlos Hyde.

3. Fill in the gaps on a new 4-3 defense: After running a 3-4 front for more than a decade, the 49ers will switch to 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who’s spent the past few years as a linebackers coach under Gus Bradley. The secondary could use some work in future years — especially if Saleh wants to target the large-bodied corners Bradley and the Seahawks typically employed — but the for the most part, the back end should be passable for the 2017 season. The safety position, especially, shouldn’t be an issue, as incumbent slot corner Jimmie Ward is likely to join Eric Reid at safety, as Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee detailed last November.

San Francisco’s front seven, though, needs reinforcements, and the first step will be determining whether former first-round picks Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner stay at defensive end in the 4-3 look or instead move inside to tackle. It’s not a huge concern, as most defensive lines are malleable and run on rotations, but the presence of Armstead and Buckner could dissuade the 49ers from drafting Alabama’s Jonathan Allen or Stanford’s Solomon Thomas at the top of Round 1. Instead, pure edge rushers could be on the mind of San Francisco management when the No. 2 pick rolls around.

If the Browns pass on Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett in favor of a quarterback, the 49ers would likely run to turn in their card with the former Aggie’s name on it. Adding an pass rusher such as Garrett should take precedence over finding a signal-caller given the weak 2017 crops of passers, which means it’s not out of the question for San Francisco to go defense with the second overall pick even if Garrett is selected by Cleveland. Allen and Thomas may not be perfect fits given the needs on the Niners’ roster, but they’ll still be in consideration at pick No. 2, while Tennessee’s Derek Barnett could be another option.

Defensive lineman/edge rushers could be of interest to the 49ers during free agency, as well, especially because line players are among the strongest position groups in this year’s free agent class. Among defensive ends, Jason Pierre-Paul stands out as a potential target thanks to San Francisco’s cap situation, the fact that New York is unlikely to use the franchise tag on JPP, and the presence of former Giants assistant Jeff Zgonina as the 49ers’ defensive line coach. Melvin Ingram, Nick Perry, Datone Jones, and Jabaal Sheard are all under 30 years old and should hit the open market, while San Francisco has also been connected to Lorenzo Alexander, although he’d seem to be an odd fit for the 49ers in their current state.

Zgonina’s presence could also lead the 49ers to pursue Giants defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, who is only 24 years old. New York witnessed the effect of a dominant interior player last year after signing Damon Harrison, and while Hankins isn’t yet on Harrison’s level, he’d make for a worthwhile investment. Dontari Poe is another potential target for the Niners if he’s not franchised by the Chiefs, while the club could also invest a draft pick on the interior. Michigan State’s Malik McDowell is a candidate for a draft day tumble and may be available at pick No. 34, as could Caleb Brantley (Florida), Jaleel Johnson (Iowa), and Chris Wormley (Michigan).

Other need areas abound on San Francisco’s defense: if Ward stays in the slot the club could use another to play opposite Reid, and the 49ers could also invest a pick or a minor contract on a off-ball linebacker, where NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks are aging (ex-Falcon Paul Worrilow, 26, would make some sense). And although, as noted, the Niners can probably get through the 2017 campaign with their current crop of cornerbacks, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report believes San Francisco could surprise and take a CB at No. 2, while Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently mocked Ohio State’s Marshon Lattimore to the 49ers.

PFR Live Chat With Zach Links

February 16th, 2017 at 12:44pm CST by Zachary Links

Click here to read the transcript of today’s PFR Live Chat With Zach Links.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Atlanta Falcons

February 15th, 2017 at 9:52pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Atlanta Falcons, who capped off an 11-5 season with a Super Bowl appearance that ended in devastating fashion.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Ricardo Allen, S (ERFA)
Jonathan Babineaux, DT
Chris Chester, G
Tom Compton, T
Patrick DiMarco, FB
Dwight Freeney, DE
Taylor Gabriel, WR (RFA)
Ben Garland, C (ERFA)
Dashon Goldson, S
Kemal Ishmael, S
Akeem King, S (ERFA)
LaRoy Reynolds, LB
Aldrick Robinson, WR
Matt Schaub, QB
Tyler Starr, LB (ERFA)
Jacob Tamme, TE
Levine Toilolo, TE
Courtney Upshaw, LB/DE
Sean Weatherspoon, LB
Eric Weems, WR
Philip Wheeler, LB
Paul Worrilow, LB
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB (RFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Matt Ryan, QB: $23,750,000
Julio Jones, WR: $13,900,000
Robert Alford, CB: $9,600,000
Alex Mack, C: $9,050,000
Desmond Trufant, CB: $8,026,000
Mohamed Sanu, WR: $7,400,000
Ryan Schraeder, T: $7,100,000
Andy Levitre, G: $6,625,000
Tyson Jackson, DL: $5,850,000
Adrian Clayborn, DE: $5,406,250

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $22,435,713
31st pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for T Jake Matthews

Three Needs:

1. Fortify right guard: For the most part, the Falcons’ offensive line was a strength in 2016. While the unit ranked just 23rd in adjusted sack rate, Atlanta’s front five placed tenth in adjusted line yards and was named the sixth-best offensive line in the league in Pro Football Focus’ year-end rankings. The club has certainly invested in its line, using a first-round pick on left tackle Jake Matthews, spending heavily in free agency to land center Alex Mack, and rewarding a formerly anonymous undrafted free agent — right tackle Ryan Schraeder — with a multi-year extension.

Indeed, every one of Atlanta’s offensive lineman graded out as a starting-caliber player, according to PFF, with the exception of veteran right guard Chris Chester, who ranked as the No. 56 guard among 72 qualifiers. Chester is scheduled to hit the open market next month after his one-year deal expires, so the Falcons won’t have to worry about the prospect of incurring dead money if forced to release him. Instead, the team has the option of simply letting him walk, and given that Chester is entering his age-34 season, the Falcons should do just that.

Atlanta doesn’t have a ton of cap space (ninth-least in the NFL), but it also doesn’t have a ton of needs. As such, it’s fair to wonder if general manager Thomas Dimitroff & Co. will target a top-notch guard right out of the free agent gate, adding a new player that could transform the Falcons’ offensive line into a truly elite unit. And while the free agent tackle and center markets are relatively barren, the list of available guards should intrigue Atlanta.

Kevin Zeitler, 26, looks to be the top guard headed for free agency, and appears increasingly unlikely to return to the Bengals. If he does reach the open market, Zeitler figures to be in for a massive payday. Even though right guards typically earn less than their left side counterparts, Zeitler should be able to blow past the $10MM averages landed by Kyle Long and David DeCastro, especially since each of those players inked extensions, not free agent pacts. Zeitler, who ranked as PFF’s No. 7 guard, would immediately convert Atlanta’s offensive line into one of the best units in the league.

Though he may represent the best option, Zeitler is far from the only interior lineman the Falcons could go after. The Packers’ T.J. Lang placed just one spot behind Zeitler in PFF’s rankings, and given that he’s more than two years older than the Bengals free agent, could come at a much cheaper cost. Green Bay prefers to retain its own free agents, but it hasn’t placed much emphasis on the interior of the offensive line lately, as evidenced by their surprising 2016 release of Josh Sitton. Fellow Packer J.C. Tretter, the Lions’ Larry Warford, and the Cowboys’ Ronald Leary could also catch the eye of Atlanta this offseason.

If the Falcons want to conserve their limited cap space for other position upgrades, they could instead target guard help in the draft. This year’s crop of prospects is thought to be short on offensive lineman, so Atlanta may want to use their first-round pick (No. 31 overall) on a guard lest in miss out on interior help later in the draft. Western Kentucky’s Forrest Lamp looks like the best guard available in 2017, and Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com favorably compares Lamp to the Cowboys’ Zack Martin, who — like Lamp — played tackle in college before moving inside in the pros. Dan Feeney (Indiana), Dorian Johnson (Pittsburgh), and Nico Siragusa (San Diego State) are among the other guards the Falcons could consider on Day 1 or 2.

2. Add to the defensive line: 2016 first-round pick Vic Beasley broke out during his second season playing defensive end for the Falcons, leading the league in both sacks (15.5) and forced fumbles (six). Veteran Dwight Freeney, once again relegated to a late-summer signing, contributed off the edge, while young players such as Grady Jarrett and Ra’Shede Hageman shined down the stretch.

Atlanta’s defensive line figures to see some upheaval in 2017 under new coach Bryant Young, however, as Jonathan Babineaux could walk during free agency (or, at age 35, consider retirement), while fellow interior lineman Tyson Jackson will likely be designated as a post-June 1 release, a move that would save the Falcons more than $4MM in cap space. Returning members of the line include Brooks Reed, Adrian Clayborn, and Derrick Shelby (who missed the majority of season with injury), but overall, Atlanta’s front four can be labeled as something near the middle of the pack.

Reinforcing the defensive line by placing another big body in the middle should be a priority for the Falcons this offseason, and if the club doesn’t spend its available funds on a guard, it could look to free agency to find another defensive tackle. Brandon Williams fits Atlanta’s needs like a glove, and while he could plug up holes and help Falcons linebackers Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell get free, the Ravens are prioritizing Williams, so he might not even reach free agency. Chris Baker, meanwhile, is a little older than Williams, but given that the Redskins are “lukewarm” on retaining him, Baker could be more available to Atlanta. Dontari Poe and Johnathan Hankins represent other expensive tackle options, while John Jenkins, Stephen Paea, Sylvester Williams, and Glenn Dorsey will come at a lower cost.

Alternatively, if the Falcons are confident Jarrett and Hageman will continue to grow, the club could instead choose to add another elite pass-rusher to play opposite Beasley. The top free agent edge player, Arizona’s Chandler Jones, is extremely unlikely to hit the market, as the Cardinals will franchise Jones if no long-term deal is reached. The Chargers’ Melvin Ingram could see a similar fate, but he’d be a worthwhile investment for Atlanta if he does reach free agency. If the Falcons do sign one of the top-notch pass rushers, they likely won’t be able to make any other significant moves this offseason. Datone Jones and DeMarcus Ware could also be on the Falcons’ radar, and the team should also take a look at re-signing Freeney for one more go-round.

At the tail end of the first round of the draft, Atlanta is in prime position to pick up any defensive linemen that may fall come draft day. Michigan State’s Malik McDowell, for one, was viewed as the top interior lineman available for much of the winter, but Eric Galko of the Sporting News recently reported that clubs have character concerns about McDowell based on his effort level and poor attitude. Those worries could cause McDowell to tumble down draft boards, but perhaps the Falcons feel their strong veteran locker room could be a safe landing spot for the former Spartan.

Florida defensive tackle Caleb Brantley never played under Young or Dan Quinn (a former Gators defensive coordinator) in Gainesville, but the two coaches could potentially have an affinity for players that come out of UF based on their professional history. Meanwhile, Daniel Jermiah of NFL.com and Josh Norris of Rotoworld each sent defensive lineman to Atlanta in their most recent mock drafts, with the scribes mocking Takkarist McKinley (UCLA) and Jaleel Johnson (Iowa), respectively, to the Falcons.

3. Lock up the roster’s core: The Falcons are something of a “stars and scrubs” roster, relying less on depth than on a small number of elite players at the top of the depth chart. It’s not necessarily a poor approach to team-building, and it’s a strategy that worked in 2016 as evidenced by Atlanta’s Super Bowl run. But it does mean the Falcons need to work quickly to hammer out extensions with their core talent.

That list begins, naturally, with quarterback Matt Ryan, who is signed through 2018 with cap charges north of $21MM in each season. Falcons owner Arthur Blank has already confirmed his club will attempt to extend Ryan this summer, and a new deal could potentially make Ryan the highest-paid quarterback in the league. The Colts’ Andrew Luck currently holds that honor on a per season basis, with a yearly salary of $24.594MM. Ryan, 31, has a cap hit of $23.75MM in 2017, and a long-term deal could actually lower that cap hit by folding guarantees into a prorated signing bonus.

Elsewhere on offense, running back Devonta Freeman is in line for a new contract after earning his second consecutive Pro Bowl in 2016. The 24-year-old Freeman is said to be looking for “elite” money, but as Zach Links noted in Monday’s PFR chat, a “definite limit” exists among running back contracts, so despite Freeman’s demands, he’s not going to reach a double digit annual salary. Atlanta’s front office says it’s “on the same page” with Freeman’s agent, and the two sides could eventually agree to a pact that pays in between Doug Martin‘s $7.15MM and whatever Le’Veon Bell earns through a potential new deal with the Steelers. Freeman will earn roughly $1.8MM in 2017 thanks to the NFL’s proven performance escalator.

General manager Thomas Dimitroff has also been adamant Atlanta will sign cornerback Desmond Trufant to a long-term deal, noting the fifth-year pro is a “very valuable asset.” Trufant, 26, will earn $8.026MM during the 2017 campaign under the terms of his fifth-year option before becoming a free agent in the spring of 2018. Although he missed the Falcons’ final six regular season games (and the club’s postseason run) with a pectoral injury, Trufant ranked as a top-15 cornerback as recently as 2015, per PFF. Trufant pushed for an extension last summer, and now that he looks to poised to cash in, he’ll likely keep a close eye on free agent pacts signed by fellow CBs Trumaine Johnson, A.J. Bouye, and Stephon Gilmore in the coming weeks.

Finally, the Falcons could take a look at extending left tackle Jake Matthews, who will soon be locked up through the 2018 campaign after Atlanta makes the easy decision to exercise his fifth-year option. Matthews took a small step back during his third NFL season, as he ranked as only the No. 36 tackle in the league, according to PFF. Still, he’s only 25 years old and has flashed elite level talent in the past, so the Falcons could be smart to ink Matthews to a new deal now before his value rises again. Recent $12MM per year contracts signed by fellow left tackles David Bakhtiari, Cordy Glenn, and Eric Fisher could serve as the basis for talks between Matthews and Atlanta management.

2017 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 15th, 2017 at 10:01am CST by Zachary Links

Starting today, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags is open, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.

As our list of important dates for the 2017 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those tags doesn’t come until Wednesday, March 1st. Usually, when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will wait until that deadline approaches to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.

Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2017’s franchise tag period. The NFL hasn’t officially announced the salary cap figure for 2017, but former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com recently projected the 2017 franchise tag salaries based on a presumed $168MM cap. Here are the expected non-exclusive franchise tag amounts:

Quarterback: $21.395MM
Running back: $12.377MM
Wide receiver: $15.826MM
Tight end: $9.894MM
Offensive line: $14.444MM
Defensive end: $16.955MM
Defensive tackle: $13.468MM
Linebacker: $14.754MM
Cornerback: $14.297MM
Safety: $10.961MM
Punter/kicker: $4.863MM

(For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject.)

Here’s our look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities:

Virtual Locks:

Chandler Jones, DE, Cardinals: Maybe Jones should headline a category titled “Super Duper Virtual Locks.” In January, coach Bruce Arians said that the Cards would apply the franchise tag to Jones if they were unable to immediately lock him up to a long-term deal. Then, just this week, Cardinals president Michael Bidwill offered additional confirmation of that plan. The $16.955MM tag will be applied to Jones in the next couple of weeks and the two sides will then have until the summer to work out a long-term deal. The odds of a longer pact coming together seem pretty good, considering the Cardinals knew what they were getting themselves into when they traded for Jones last year.

Kawann Short, DT, Panthers: Panthers head coach Ron Rivera admits that Short will “probably” be tagged and, unlike ex-teammate Josh Norman, Short doesn’t have a problem with it. The 28-year-old was the third-best defensive tackle in the NFL last year, according to Pro Football Focus, and the Panthers will gladly pay him ~$13.5MM on a one-year deal. A multi-year agreement could require an average annual value of $17MM, so our early guess is that Short will wind up actually playing on the tender.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: We’ve known for a while now that the Steelers will use the franchise tag on Bell. For all of his off-the-field headaches, Bell still stands as one of the league’s most dynamic running backs and a one-year, $12.3MM deal would suit Pittsburgh just fine. Sometime after the tag is in place, we’re expecting the two sides to agree on a long-term deal. As I wrote in our most recent edition of the Free Agent Power Rankings, Bell will top LeSean McCoy‘s ~$8MM AAV and Doug Martin‘s $15MM in guarantees on a new multiyear pact. Of course, other factors such as cash flow will be pivotal in talks, particularly given the limited shelf life of running backs.
Read more

Strong Candidates:

Eric Berry , S, Chiefs: Last offseason, everyone expected the Chiefs and Berry to quickly hammer out a multiyear contract. Ultimately, however, the July deadline came and went and he wound up playing on the franchise tag. This time around, Berry says there’s no way he’ll agree to the tag again. If the Chiefs and their franchise player can’t meet in the middle, things could get ugly this summer. A second tag would cost KC $12.967MM.

Dontari Poe, DT, Chiefs: Signing Berry to a long-term deal without tagging him would have the added benefit of allowing the team to use the tag on Poe. Berry doesn’t want the tag, but Poe would probably be open to it since the $13.468MM salary would more than double his 2016 income. Any way you slice it, the Chiefs are going to be tight against the cap, but they can carve out about $17MM by cutting Nick Foles and Jamaal Charles this offseason.

Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, Giants: After his fireworks accident two years ago, the Giants re-upped Pierre-Paul using the franchise tag. Despite the many doubters out there, JPP managed to perform in his injury-shortened season. The following year, JPP was handed yet another one-year deal from the Giants and, once again, he came through. He’s down one-and-a-half digits, but he also has one-and-a-half seasons of strong football after his mishap proving that he is an elite edge rusher. Pierre-Paul won’t want another prove-it deal, but the Giants may find that the one-year, ~$17MM tag is the most prudent move.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins: The Redskins tagged Cousins at $19.95MM last season, so a repeat tag would cost them $23.94MM. If they go that route, they’re likely to use the non-exclusive tag on the QB, according to one Redskins beat writer. That means that Cousins could be stolen away by another club desperate for quarterback help (like the 49ers or Browns), but it would cost them two first-round picks. There has also been talk of a tag-and-trade scenario, but that sort of thing is more suited for the NBA.

Toss Up:

A.J. Bouye, CB, Texans: How exactly should the Texans approach negotiations with Bouye? A relative no-name for the first three years of his career, Bouye exploded in 2016 and wound up as a top cornerback in the NFL. A one-year, $14.297MM tag could keep Bouye away from free agency and give the Texans another year to better evaluate the former UDFA. Still, that would tie up a ton of cap room for a team that has multiple areas to address. It’s possible that the Texans could sell Bouye on playing it safe and taking a below-market multiyear deal with healthy guarantees in the first two seasons.

Terrelle Pryor, WR, Browns: Last month, one report indicated that the Browns are “very likely” to place the estimated $15.826MM franchise tag on Pryor. With the most cap space in the league, the Browns can easily afford to tag Pryor, but both sides would prefer a long-term deal. Recently, the Browns ramped up their efforts to get something done with the Ohio State product and agent Drew Rosenhaus. The Browns will tag Pryor if necessary, but we’re not sure it’ll get to that point.

Trumaine Johnson, CB, Rams: Last summer, the Rams felt they could keep only one of their two standout cornerbacks and they went with Johnson over Janoris Jenkins. Johnson remained with the team under the franchise tag and had a good year, though not a great one like Jenkins had with the Giants. Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com recently told us that he expects the Rams to do “whatever it takes” to keep Johnson in the fold, and that could include an expensive repeat tag. At the same time, the Rams would greatly prefer to work out a multi-year deal that doesn’t zap their cap in 2017.

Melvin Ingram, LB, Chargers: Ingram is No. 4 on our Free Agent Power Rankings, but he might be the best player with a realistic chance of hitting the open market. The Chargers have a lot of holes to fill as they gear up for their first season in L.A. and they might not be able to afford Ingram at a $14.754MM salary. We’re expecting this late bloomer to explore the waters of free agency and potentially swim elsewhere.

Long Shots:

Dont’a Hightower, LB, Patriots: Hightower is a heck of a player, but a one-year, $14.754MM deal is a whopping price to pay for an inside linebacker. Would the Patriots go that far to keep one of their defensive anchors? It’s possible, but it seems more likely that the two sides will shake hands on a long-term deal before the March 1 deadline.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: When the Bears used the tag on Jeffery last year, the feeling was that he would have to turn in a full, productive season in order to get his big payday. Instead, the Bears saw another so-so season from their star wide receiver that only spanned 12 games thanks to his four-game PED ban. A second tag would cost $17.5MM and we can’t see the Bears going that route, unless they think they can swing a tag-and-trade.

Stephon Gilmore, CB, Bills: Gilmore has said that he doesn’t want to be hit with the franchise tag, so his placement in the long shot section should make him pretty happy. Here’s what didn’t make the Bills happy – a mediocre 2016 which made some worry that the former first-round pick has regressed. We’re not expecting the Bills to use the one-year,$14.297MM tender on Gilmore, but nothing can be ruled out since the front office always finds a way to surprise us in Buffalo.

Portions of this post have been modified from an earlier post by PFR editor emeritus Luke Adams.

PFR Live Chat With Zach Links

February 13th, 2017 at 9:33am CST by Zachary Links

Click here to read the transcript of today’s PFR Live Chat With Zach Links.

Load More Posts