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Offseason In Review: Tennessee Titans

By | at August 3, 2023 10:10 pm

The AFC’s No. 1 seed in 2021, the Titans took a step back after another injury-riddled season. As numerous starters moved from Tennessee’s two-deep to IR, ownership reversed course on an extension it had just authorized months earlier. Like the Cardinals, the Titans fired a GM (Jon Robinson) they had extended earlier in the year. Robinson’s decision to trade A.J. Brown also brought disastrous effects, and the Titans enter 2023 with their longtime offensive pillars — Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill — in contract years.

Rookie GM Ran Carthon made several lineup changes this offseason, and the Titans do play in what has been the AFC’s worst division for the better part of the past decade. Will the high floor Mike Vrabel has helped provide be there for this reconstructed team?

Extensions and restructures:

This Robinson bet on an injured prospect paid off for the Titans, who have one of the NFL’s best interior defensive linemen. And Simmons has been durable since debuting midway through his rookie season post-ACL tear. Notching back-to-back second-team All-Pro seasons, Simmons has totaled 16 sacks and 21 tackles for loss from 2021-22. His three sacks drove a ferocious pass rush that nearly dragged the Titans to a divisional-round win over the Bengals. The Titans now have the two anchors of that rush — Simmons and Harold Landry — signed long term.

During an offseason in which the NFL’s top non-Aaron Donald tier of D-tackle contract became firmly established, Simmons exited with more guaranteed money than the Rams legend. Although Carthon did not draft Simmons, the former 49ers exec made a point to hammer out the deal before the offseason program began.

Simmons, 26, had staged a hold-in at the Titans’ 2022 minicamp, but with non-quarterback extensions for players with two years of control remaining still fairly rare, the DT-rich 2019 first round needed to wait. With the Commanders franchise-tagging 2018 first-rounder Daron Payne, it created a glut of D-tackles aiming to bridge the mammoth gap between Donald and the field.

In a league in which Patrick Mahomes‘ contract — which stood $10MM north of the second-highest NFL AAV when finalized — has been passed over many times, it is notable none of the 20-something D-tackles came especially close to Donald’s $31.7MM average salary. Simmons has a case to be labeled the league’s third-best inside D-lineman — behind Donald and Chris Jones — and his AAV landed at $23.5MM. Teams were not willing to go near the price the Rams set for their historically talented pass rusher, but Simmons securing the $47.8MM guarantee number obviously proved crucial for his camp. While the Jones-Chiefs talks have not produced a resolution, Simmons trails only Quinnen Williams in fully guaranteed money at the position.

The Byard saga did produce an agreement, but the Carthon era has not started off ideally for the veteran safety. A reliable performer on one of the NFL’s most injury-prone teams, Byard is two seasons removed from a first-team All-Pro nod. The seven-year veteran has never missed a game, giving the Titans vital security as injury trouble has impacted the roster at key points. Pro Football Focus has also graded Byard as a top-10 safety in five of the past six seasons. Byard, who will turn 30 before the season, admitted he did not expect Carthon to hit him with a pay-cut request.

No trade drama ensued, but Carthon did trim money from Byard’s 2023 base salary. This is not a true restructure, as the transaction shaved nearly $3MM off Byard’s 2023 base salary. Incentives can move the number back to the $13.6MM place at which it previously stood, but the Titans also gave Byard $7MM in additional guarantees — on a contract that had seen its guarantees elapse — to agree to this. As a result, the team created more than $7MM in 2023 cap space with this adjustment. After two previous restructures, Byard’s cap number had ballooned to $19.6MM.

Free agency additions:

The Ravens’ Odell Beckham Jr. contract shook up Hopkins trade talks, eventually opening the door for the Titans. As Hopkins’ free agency played out, it seemed fitting the Titans ended up playing the Ravens role as they competed against true AFC contenders. Tennessee ended up outflanking other suitors — perhaps by a decent margin — to sign Hopkins. Considering the performance of the Titans’ receiving corps last season and the state this year’s group resided post-draft, Hopkins represented a vital upgrade.

Dealing Brown immediately burned the Titans, who may have misread the market. Although the Ravens traded Marquise Brown, the other four teams with decisions on 2019 receiver draftees — the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 49ers (Deebo Samuel) and Steelers (Diontae Johnson) — reached extension agreements, with the pacts being based on the one the Eagles gave Brown. While first-rounder Treylon Burks — effectively Brown’s replacement — showed flashes, Tennessee’s receiving corps produced just one 500-yard showing. And that came from a declining Robert Woods, who totaled 527 yards as this passing attack cratered.

Hopkins, 31, is not where he was when traded from the Texans to the Cardinals, but of the suitors, no team needed him more. The contract the Titans shelled out reflected that. Had the Ravens’ similar receiver need not driven them to give Beckham $15MM guaranteed, the long-rumored Bills-Chiefs bidding war might have taken place on the trade market.

Hopkins was apparently ready to accept a reduction to facilitate a trade away from the rebuilding Cards, but once OBJ (zero first-team All-Pro nods) landed the Baltimore deal after not playing in 2022, Hopkins naturally did not believe he needed to make a big sacrifice ahead of his 11th season. Rather than becoming a major chip in the arms race taking place atop the AFC, Hopkins will take some pressure off Burks in Nashville.

This move does remind of Tennessee’s Julio Jones pickup two years ago. Jones was also a three-time first-team All-Pro coming off an injury-limited season in his early 30s. But the Titans needed to fork over a second-round pick for the ex-Falcon great. The Hopkins contract details reveal an easy out after one year. The Titans designating Hopkins as a post-June 1 cut next year would come with just $1.96MM in dead money (and $14MM-plus in savings). Hopkins is due a $4.1MM roster bonus on Day 5 of the 2024 league year, providing an early decision date — unlike this offseason.

Bailing on another accomplished wideout with a post-June 1 release designation would not be optimal for Tennessee, which still has $8.4MM in Jones dead money on its 2023 cap sheet. But even though it looked like the team needed to offer several million more than Kansas City or New England did in guarantees, thus topping the incentive-laden deals each proposed, the Titans are not pot-committed for 2024.

In Hopkins’ last full season, he totaled a career-high 115 receptions for 1,407 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Hamstring issues and a torn MCL halted Hopkins’ momentum in 2021, bringing about the first injury-plagued stretch of the former first-round pick’s career. A PED ban and a minor knee issue emerged last year. Hopkins has missed 15 games over the past two seasons. But he has a history with Vrabel and new OC Tim Kelly, who were each in Houston during part of his seven-season stay.

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Offseason In Review: New York Giants

By | at July 30, 2023 9:40 pm

The Joe Schoen regime’s first offseason did not feature splash moves, with cap issues limiting the GM last year. After a surprise voyage to the NFC’s divisional round, the Giants became far more active this year in making moves that will shape their long-term future. For the most part, the team’s core players are now locked down. Though, more headlines came the team’s way because of the pillar that exited the offseason without an extension.

Re-signings:

Faced with one of the more fascinating decisions in the franchise tag era, the Giants made no secret of their stance adjustment on Jones. Schoen passed on the Dave Gettleman-era draftee’s $22.4MM fifth-year option in 2022. Picking that up would have brought an easier route for the Giants, but the former No. 6 overall pick was coming off an injury-limited season and had not justified such an investment at that point. With Jones becoming the first quarterback to re-sign with a team that had declined his fifth-year option, he exerted the leverage the March franchise tag deadline gave him. At the end of that journey: a payday that would have been unimaginable a year ago.

By not picking up Jones’ option and letting Barkley play out his, the Giants entered March with both unsigned. They ended up navigating this scenario in the same way the 2020 Titans did, re-signing the quarterback and tagging the running back. But the Ryan Tannehill–Derrick Henry situation did not produce half the headlines the Giants’ Jones-Barkley proceedings did.

In the fall, the team first identified Barkley as an extension candidate, beginning bye-week negotiations and offering an extension worth more than $12MM per year. No Jones negotiations took place at that point, with the new Big Blue regime wanting to see more. After Jones piloted a Giants offense stripped of non-Barkley skill-position talent to the franchise’s first playoff win since Super Bowl XLVI, Schoen and Co. changed course. Jones became the priority and was set to receive an expensive franchise tag ($32.4MM). Barkley’s superior talent notwithstanding, the two-time Pro Bowl running back’s positional value dropped him in the team’s queue. This set up a high-stakes stretch leading up to the March 7 deadline to tag players.

Rumored to be aiming for a deal south of $40MM per year, the Giants saw their quarterback change agents and come in with a $47MM-AAV ask once talks heated up in the winter. After a lack of progress in the days leading up to the deadline, the Giants talked Jones down to $40MM per year. Beating the deadline buzzer on this extension allowed them to tag Barkley, completing step one of a seminal offseason itinerary. While that set off another high-profile negotiation that would play out in the coming months, Jones successfully negotiated the same contract parameters Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott received and did so coming off a season in which he threw only 15 touchdown passes.

The Eli Manning heir apparent transforming his value to this degree made for one of the most interesting contractual sagas in recent memory. Jones, 26, had shown promise as a rookie under Pat Shurmur. His 24 TD passes — in a 12-start season — still rank fifth for a rookie. But Joe Judge‘s tenure, which largely placed Jason Garrett at the controls on offense, ended up setting Jones back. The Duke product combined for 21 TD passes in 25 starts from 2020-21, and his midseason neck injury in the latter season led to one of the worst stretches in Giants history. Although the team’s 9-7-1 response to that benefited Jones more than anyone, the Giants are making a reasonable bet on a player they were seemingly ready to discard at this time last year.

Factoring in rushing impact, QBR viewed Jones as having made tremendous strides under Brian Daboll. Despite increasing receiver limitations and a basement-level tight end situation, Jones ranked sixth in that metric. His 708 rushing yards boosted a team in need of viable non-Barkley help moving the chains, and it will be interesting to see how Jones performs in Daboll’s offense with an improved pass-catching corps.

This contract also gives the Giants a reasonable out after two years. They would be on the hook for barely $9MM in dead money if they designated Jones a post-June 1 cut in 2025. And the subsequent deals for Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert did bump the Jones contract down to 11th at the position. Still, Jones is a bit on this deal is a different than having him on rookie money. While it would have been interesting to see if another team would have been willing to give him $40MM per year on the open market, the Giants did not wish to chance that.

Barkley’s tag became one of many events in a crushing offseason for the running back position. The throughline from Mike Shanahan‘s brigade of post-Terrell Davis 1,000-yard backs to the gridlock atop the market following Christian McCaffrey‘s 2020 agreement has led to an overdue spotlight shining on this position’s place in the modern game. At the end of 2023’s carnage, the RB position is at maybe its most unstable point in history.

The Giants not coming to an agreement with Barkley certainly puts this relationship at risk of falling apart after 2023. But the team will have a chance to use the most talented back in its near-100-year history for at least one more season. The Giants will have a chance to tag Barkley again, at barely $12MM, in 2024. Will the 26-year-old RB remain in the picture by that point?

After shaking off a three-year stretch of injuries, Barkley provided great value on a $7.22MM fifth-year option salary by powering the Giants to the playoffs. While the Giants have not been able to utilize Barkley’s pass-game talents on the level his rookie year brought, he gained a career-high 1,312 rushing yards and was by far the most talented Giants skill player. Barkley stayed healthy throughout the season, but after the fall talks did not come close to producing a deal, the Giants ended up pulling their second offer — worth roughly $13MM per year — after tagging him. Four months later, Barkley will play the season for the $10.1MM tag salary (feat. a small incentive package with lofty benchmarks).

Barkley blasted the Giants for leaks that made him look greedy, when the fall and winter offers included low guarantees. Once the team finally moved up to the $22MM guarantee level that represented the cost of two franchise tags, the backfield staple was annoyed that increase came with an AAV decrease south of $12MM. Despite the parties being close to a deal, the Giants making the late move to reduce the AAV led to Barkley passing. Barkley’s No. 2 overall draft slot and fifth-year option money moved his career earnings past $38MM, which would have given him interesting leverage to use a Le’Veon Bell-like absence as evidence — on a Giants team still bereft of dependable skill players elsewhere — of RB value while preserving his body for what could be a last-chance free agency run in 2024. Barkley’s bluff on this front did not translate to even a training camp holdout, illustrating the power the tag gave the Giants.

With the Giants free to use Barkley as they please, this tag season could tank his stock — through either an injury or a third 350-plus-touch year — and leave him in a tough spot on what looks like another crowded free agent market. That is, if the Giants let Barkley reach free agency in 2024. With Miles Sanders receiving $13MM guaranteed from the Panthers, Barkley will bet on himself this year in hopes a reasonable guarantee figure will await him on the market in 2024.

Shepard is the Giants’ longest-tenured player, but his injury history and having re-signed for no guaranteed money makes the Slayton transaction more pertinent for the 2023 Giants. Although Jones and Barkley zoomed into this regime’s good graces after down 2021 offerings, Slayton’s turnaround with the organization may have been more surprising.

The Giants buried Slayton on their depth chart going into his contract year and then slashed his pay, stripping away the proven performance escalator money he earned, before the season. But the slew of issues to affect the team’s receiver cadre — Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson‘s ACL tears, Kadarius Toney‘s repeat injuries and then a give-up trade, and Kenny Golladay cementing himself as a historic free agency bust — led to Slayton climbing back into a starting role and leading the team in receiving (724 yards). The Giants are deeper at wide receiver this year, but with Robinson not a lock to begin the season on time, Slayton (three 700-yard years) could still find himself opening the season as Jones’ top wideout.

Trades:

In betting Jones will grow with better pass catchers, the Giants are wagering Waller will shake off the injury trouble that plagued him in Las Vegas. Waller, who will turn 31 in September, missed 14 games over the past two years. The Pro Bowl tight end’s injuries eventually caused the Raiders to cut bait. For a Giants team that has not employed a difference-making tight end in maybe 16 years (Jeremy Shockey?), this is a bet worth making. The pick obtained for Toney is a reasonable price to pay for a dynamic player like Waller.

Unlike Shockey, Waller has delivered a 1,000-yard season. In fact, the ex-Ravens wide receiver is one of just eight tight ends with two 1,100-yard years. Waller saved the Raiders when their Antonio Brown trade preceded a spectacular combustion, going from Jon Gruden-era flier to cornerstone piece in Derek Carr‘s final stretch with the franchise. In his most recent healthy season, Waller ripped off 107-catch, 1,196-yard, nine-TD performance.

Of course, that came three years ago. Since, Waller has dealt with ankle, IT band and hamstring problems. Waller missing eight games due to a hamstring issue — weeks after the Raiders made him the NFL’s highest-paid tight end, at $17MM per year — last year frustrated some in the organization. But he has a clear opportunity in New York. The Raiders had transitioned to a Davante Adams-centered aerial attack. While the Giants took a quantity-based approach at receiver, no No. 1-type wideout — at least, no known commodity — exists on this depth chart. Waller will enter the year as the most likely passing-game centerpiece.

Waller’s 2022 extension did not feature lofty guarantees, which gave the Raiders an easy out. The Giants will only be tagged with $2.5MM in dead money if they designate Waller a post-June 1 cut in 2024. This is a relatively low-risk proposition for Big Blue. Waller did show flashes after coming back from his hamstring issue in December; when healthy, he presents the capability to give the Giants a weapon that would accelerate Jones’ development.

Extensions and restructures:

In an offseason that has placed Barkley in a late-’90s George Costanza-like position, when the Susan Ross Foundation continued to unveil other financial plans regarding her estate, Thomas and Lawrence have joined Jones in receiving windfalls. How the Giants proceeded this year doubles as a decent encapsulation for positional value in the NFL. Beyond the reality of the Giants taking care of higher-value players and letting their running back stay on the tag, two more Gettleman-years breakthrough players are under contract for at least five more seasons. Thomas’ deal, in particular, could age very well for the team.

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Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Eagles

By | at July 26, 2023 9:50 pm

Like Doug Pederson, Nick Sirianni led the Eagles to a Super Bowl in his sophomore HC effort. The endings proved different, as Philadelphia’s defense could not stop Patrick Mahomes in a shootout, but the Eagles went from 9-8 in 2021 to the NFC’s best team. While this represents considerable progress after the team did not tumble onto the rebuilding tier — as many expected — in 2021, this offseason featured defections from both starters and staffers.

Two new coordinators and five new defensive starters will be in place this season. The Eagles, however, hover as the NFC favorites. Their roster blueprint has also changed. The quarterback they once drafted as Carson Wentz insurance is now signed to a monster extension.

Extensions and restructures:

Hurts has completed one of the most remarkable ascents in modern quarterback history. Eagles brass was split on the ex-Alabama and Oklahoma passer, with some in the organization wanting the team to take safety Jeremy Chinn in the 2020 second round. The Eagles defied traditional roster-building measures by selecting Hurts in Round 2, doing so less than a year after giving Wentz a $32MM-per-year extension. They took on a then-record dead-money hit ($33.8MM) by trading Wentz in 2021, but even after Hurts spent a full season as a starter, Philly was not fully committed to him.

Jeffrey Lurie expressed hope the Eagles would not bring in a quarterback to compete with Hurts in 2021, but during the season, the owner was still believed to be higher on the then-accuracy-challenged QB than Howie Roseman. In turn, the Eagles looked into higher-profile trade options in 2022. But neither Russell Wilson nor Deshaun Watson would waive their respective no-trade clauses to join the Eagles. Philly did not end up a finalist for Watson. Although the Eagles had wanted Wilson in the 2012 draft and were prepared to make a substantial trade offer to the Seahawks 10 years later, the perennial Pro Bowler steered his way to the Broncos. Wilson’s no-trade clause now looms as a significant Eagles “what if?” scenario, as Hurts removed much of the doubt about his future last season.

The Eagles went 16-2 in games Hurts started last year, and the stout quarterback went toe-to-toe with Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII. Hurts’ completion rate (66.5%), yards per attempt (8.0), passer rating (101.5) and QBR (66.4 — fourth overall) took substantial leaps last season. Philadelphia’s decision to trade for A.J. Brown paid off in more ways than one, with the ex-Titans wideout breaking the Eagles’ single-season receiving record and aiding Hurts in the process. Philly’s years-long commitment to beefing up its offensive line boosted Hurts as well, as his nearly unstoppable QB sneak — which the NFL considered outlawing before standing down this offseason — became a tremendous drive-extending or drive-finishing tactic that benefited the Eagles (and fantasy GMs) in key spots.

Hurts going from an uncertain piece in the Eagles’ big-picture puzzle to surefire extension candidate could have made talks complicated, especially with the Eagles having a 2024 franchise tag at their disposal. But the soon-to-be 25-year-old QB signed in April. Just as they had done in 2019 with Wentz, the Eagles went first on a QB extension. This paved the way for the Ravens to end their years-long impasse with Lamar Jackson, which led to the Chargers’ Justin Herbert deal and will set up Joe Burrow to finish this round of market reshaping.

Hurts did not flirt with Watson-like guarantees, with the deals for he, Jackson and Herbert successfully pegging the Browns contract as an outlier. The Eagles gave Hurts $110MM guaranteed — a cool $120MM south of Watson’s monstrous figure — and used a startling seven void years to spread out the cap hit. As a result, Hurts will not even count $40MM on the Eagles’ cap until 2027. By then, the salary cap could be close to $300MM. Of course, Hurts will need to continue on the path he started in 2022 to justify this expense. The Eagles were not shy about recommitting to a quarterback, despite Wentz rapidly fading from franchise centerpiece to supplanted starter. And while the team let a number of key defenders walk in free agency, most of the same pieces remain in place for Hurts to succeed going forward.

One of those is Johnson, who has been the Eagles’ right tackle since Michael Vick‘s final season with the team. This is the former No. 4 overall pick’s fourth contract with the Eagles, who previously extended him in 2016 and 2019. This contract only tacked on a year to Johnson’s deal but rewarded the cornerstone lineman with $30MM in additional guarantees. Johnson played through an adductor tear in the playoffs, putting off surgery. If Johnson plays out this contract, he could pass Tra Thomas for the most starts by a tackle in Eagles history. As of now, Johnson (127 starts) sits fourth on that list. But he has been an indispensable cog for the Eagles.

On the Hall of Fame radar as a three-time All-Pro, Johnson aided LeSean McCoy to a rushing title and helped the Eagles lead the league in rushing in 2021. Wentz and Hurts have benefited tremendously from the 10-year veteran, and while the Eagles have a replacement for Jason Kelce in place, they have not made plans to succeed Johnson just yet. This will be Johnson’s age-33 season; Pro Football Focus has ranked the Wisconsin product as a top-10 tackle during each of Hurts’ full seasons as a starter. The extension, which includes three void years, dropped Johnson’s 2023 cap hit by more than $9MM.

Johnson’s status with the Eagles was not in question, but Slay’s was during an eventful March span. In less than a week’s time, the decorated cornerback went from discussing an Eagles extension to being granted permission to seek a trade to moving close to a post-June 1 cut designation to making it back to the extension radar and finalizing a deal. The Eagles had talked terms with Slay, who was going into the final season of a three-year, $50MM contract. After those discussions — which may or may not have included a pay-cut request — did not progress, the Eagles allowed him to talk trades. The Ravens and even the Cowboys came up as suitors, but the Eagles and Slay found a resolution.

This did make for an interesting turn of events, as Slay turned 32 in January. Yet the Eagles will guarantee him $23MM — not bad for a player who has now signed three extensions and already pocketed nearly $87MM during a 10-year career. The Eagles made a modest bet on Slay in 2020, prying him from the Lions for third- and fifth-round picks. The former third-rounder has provided considerable ROI, making two Pro Bowls as an Eagle. PFF slotted Slay as a top-25 corner in both years, and while teams do not make a habit of giving 30-something corners big-money deals, this pact will keep Slay’s cap hits below $12MM in 2023 and ’24.

This deal will keep Darius Slay–Darius Slayton matchups coming for at least another year, thanks to the latter’s Giants re-signing, and because of the four void years attached, Slay would bring at least $9MM in dead money if cut at any point before 2026.

Trades:

Swiftly becoming expendable after the Lions chose multipurpose back Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12, the former Detroit second-round pick generated interest from multiple teams. The oft-RB-inquiring Dolphins emerged on the radar, but the Eagles pulled the trigger on a deal. A much brighter future could exist for Swift in Philadelphia. Being phased out in Detroit, the Georgia product has a chance to start for a team that just booked a Super Bowl berth.

Injuries have impeded Swift for much of his NFL career, but the pass-catching back has never missed more than three games in a season. Swift totaled 25 touchdowns in Detroit, amassing 2,878 scrimmage yards over his first three seasons. Swift has never taken more than 151 handoffs in a season. His 364 career carries certainly could appeal to the Eagles, who let Miles Sanders (739 career totes) walk in free agency.

The Eagles are open to a Swift extension, but it will likely depend on how he performs in a contract year. This is not a good time for RB value, but Swift’s receiving prowess could help him. That said, the Eagles have not been big on involving their backs in the passing game since Hurts’ debut. Sanders totaled 20 catches for 78 yards last season, while Kenneth Gainwell led Philly backs with 169 receiving yards. It is possible the Eagles will explore this dimension further with a better receiving RB, but early returns with Hurts do not bode well for the 24-year-old’s aerial skills to be utilized properly.

Re-signings:

Three of the Eagles’ core four along their lines played on expiring deals last season. Despite each player having at least 11 years’ experience, the batch of 30-somethings is back for at least one more go-round. Kelce again considered retirement, but the All-Pro center/podcast host/SNL special guest re-signed for a 13th season. The longest-tenured Eagle, Graham is back for a 14th year. Although Philly has now drafted defensive tackles from Georgia in each of the past two years, Cox remains in the team’s plans ahead of his 12th season. Graham, Kelce and Cox all arrived during Roseman’s first three years as GM; they join Johnson as part of a storied quartet in Eagles history.

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

By | at July 17, 2023 9:50 pm

For the second time in franchise history, the Jaguars overcame a 2-6 start to make the playoffs. The last time the team did so (1996), a run of playoff appearances followed. This Jaguars nucleus has similar ingredients in place compared to the Mark Brunell-fronted teams of the late ’90s. At the center is Trevor Lawrence, the former No. 1 overall pick who shook off a rough rookie season to emerge as a factor in the QB-rich AFC. The Jags’ 27-point playoff rally past the Chargers and competitive effort against the eventual champion Chiefs would seemingly depict a clear team on the rise.

The organization proceeded accordingly this offseason, not doing much to tamper with the roster it assembled during the 2022 free agency period. The Jags enter the season as favorites in what appears to be the AFC’s weakest division. How much more of a level jump can the 2023 edition make?

Extensions and restructures:

The Jaguars look to have made several strong investments in 2022. While the rest of the A- and B-listers from that pricey lot received multiyear deals, Engram needed to prove his value after an inconsistent Giants run. The former first-round pick did that, establishing a new Jaguars single-season best for tight end receiving yardage (766) last season. Although the Jaguars also had right tackle Jawaan Taylor looming as a free agent, they slapped a less expensive franchise tag ($11.35MM) on Engram. After both sides expressed interest in a long-term partnership, an agreement emerged barely 24 hours before this year’s deadline for tagged players to sign extensions.

As the tight end position remains undervalued relative to its best players’ contributions, Engram and contract-year Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson represented this year’s needle-movers on the financial front. But Engram is both going into his age-29 season and has not been a reliable pass catcher from a year-to-year perspective. As such, he and the Jags reached common ground short of the $17MM-per-year positional ceiling Darren Waller established in September 2022. At $13.75MM per year, Engram is now the NFL’s sixth-highest-paid tight end.

It is a bit surprising Engram could not clear the $14MM-AAV barrier, seeing as the salary cap is back on its steady rise after a 2021 reduction. Both Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert signed $14MM-per-year deals in 2021, and Engram’s 2022 season featured better production than either of Waller’s past two slates. The Ole Miss alum became one of Lawrence’s go-to targets, adding 12 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown during Jacksonville’s two playoff games. In terms of guarantees, Engram did slightly better. The $24MM, which covers this year’s franchise tag and the tag amount had Engram been cuffed in 2024 as well, checks in fifth at the position.

While Travis Etienne is tied to a rookie contract, Lawrence’s top four pass catchers are all either tied to veteran deals or a fifth-year option (Calvin Ridley). Lawrence’s eventual extension will likely be a record-setting accord, but the Jaguars can backload that deal to make the cap numbers to best line up with those of Engram and Christian Kirk. Zay Jones‘ $8MM-per-year pact runs through 2024, while Ridley should be an extension candidate, provided he bounces back from 1 1/2-season absence.

Engram could not become a reliable difference-maker in New York, but he did surpass 700 receiving yards as a rookie (2017) and earn a Pro Bowl bid during a 2020 season in which alternates were not part of the equation (due to the game not actually being played). In his three other Giants years, the 6-foot-3 target underwhelmed. This included a 408-yard 2021 showing, but the Giants were not exactly giving their pass catchers much of an opportunity during this period, which bottomed out following Daniel Jones‘ neck injury in November 2021. Engram showed enough in Jacksonville last season, and a team that has struggled for years to generate notable work from the tight end position rewarded him.

After bouncing back from the Urban Meyer debacle, the Jaguars made a concerted effort to retain talent this offseason. This was particularly a point of emphasis along their defensive front. One year remained on Hamilton’s rookie contract, with Robertson-Harris’ three-year deal also running through 2023. The Jaguars drafted Hamilton in the 2020 third round, when former GM Dave Caldwell was still running the show, and added Robertson-Harris during Meyer’s short span in charge. GM Trent Baalke, however, was with the organization when both arrived. The Baalke-Doug Pederson regime prioritized both as D-line supporting-casters.

A part-timer on his rookie contract with the Bears, Robertson-Harris has now fetched two three-year deals from the Jags. His $14.4MM guarantee is nearly identical to the one that brought him to Duval County — $14MM — two years ago. Robertson-Harris is primed to continue his run as a starter. The former UDFA has started 30 games with the Jags — nearly triple his Bears first-string work — and is coming off his most productive season. In 2022, Robertson-Harris equaled his 2021 sack total (three) but offered career-best marks in tackles for loss (seven) and QB hits (12). Going into his age-30 season, Robertson-Harris opted to stay in Jacksonville rather than aim for a bigger deal in free agency next March.

Hamilton, 26, emerged as a full-time starter last year. Pro Football Focus rated the Ohio State alum as a top-30 interior D-lineman in 2022, giving the Jags an ascending player alongside veterans Fatukasi and Robertson-Harris up front. Playing a career-high 610 defensive snaps last season, Hamilton has helped the Jags compensate for missing on 2018 first-rounder Taven Bryan. Hamilton also looks to be an under-the-radar draft win for the Jags, who reached their franchise nadir in the first two years of this decade.

With Hamilton also bypassing a chance at a free agency payday in 2024, the team has an interesting trio complementing its pair of ex-top-10 draftees on the edge.

Free agency additions:

Last year, the Jags signed Kirk, Scherff, Oluokun, Engram, Fatukasi, Jones and Darious Williams; five of those contracts were worth at least eight figures per year. Baalke said this would be a quieter free agency, and the third-year Jags GM did not deviate from that plan. Johnson, Brewer and Wells profile as backups, while McManus’ latest contract is worth far less than his most recent Broncos agreement.

Working behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland, Johnson did rise to the Browns’ RB2 when one of the stalwarts was hurt. This led to the former Alliance of American Football performer rushing for 534 yards in 2021. In Johnson’s three games as the Browns’ primary running back that year, he gained 146, 99 and 123 rushing yards. The South Florida alum is already 27, but he only has 141 career carries. The Jags, who are planning to reduce Etienne’s workload by a touch, figure to give their RB2 a change-of-pace workload to spell their clear-cut starter. Third-rounder Tank Bigsby will likely push Johnson for the backup role, but the free agency addition also has steady special teams experience to bring value as a third-string option.

McManus, 31, spent the past nine seasons as the Broncos’ kicker. Last year, which began eventfully via the Nathaniel Hackett-ordered 64-yard game-winning try in Week 1, was not the veteran’s best work. McManus made just 77.8% of his field goal tries — his worst accuracy rate since 2017 — but did connect on 8 of the 12 50-plus-yard tries he attempted after that bizarre Week 1 scene in Seattle.

The Broncos used the McManus post-June 1 cut money to add Frank Clark. As Sean Payton‘s team zeroed in on the veteran edge rusher, McManus contacted the Jaguars about a gig. The push worked, and the Jags will aim for kicker stability after years adrift at the position. Eight kickers had seen time in Jacksonville from 2020-22, with last year’s option — Riley Patterson — after training camp had concluded.

Re-signings:

Bigger money went to players on the Jags’ extension radar, but the team also retained multiple regulars on defense. Wingard made 24 starts over his rookie contract, including 15 during the dismal 2021 season. Last year, he settled in as a third safety behind starters Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco. PFF has viewed Wingard’s work well, ranking him as a top-35 safety during his 2021 starter year and slotting him in the top 10 — albeit on just 223 defensive snaps — last year. Wingard’s ability around the line of scrimmage and work on special teams has allowed him to become a UDFA success story out of Wyoming, and the Jags’ retention mission included a pay bump from rookie-deal money for the 26-year-old defender.

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Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

By | at July 13, 2023 9:45 pm

The Texans’ rebuild continues, and it now involves a third head coach in three years. Following in the footsteps of the 1970s and 2010s 49ers in seeing back-to-back one-and-done coaching tenures transpire, the Texans have been the league’s most anonymous on-field operation during the 2020s. GM Nick Caserio generated scrutiny as the losses piled up, but he convinced one of this year’s hottest head coaching candidates to sign up.

DeMeco Ryans is now in charge of this lengthy ascent attempt. The Texans turned to their former linebacker — who presumably will receive more than the one season David Culley and Lovie Smith did in the HC chair — and this offseason at least brought some big swings from an organization that kept the car in neutral in 2021 and ’22. The C.J. Stroud–Will Anderson Jr. pairing will go a long way toward determining if Caserio’s rebuild will work.

Trades:

Even though Cooks’ production fell off in 2022, the NFL’s active trade kingpin had long been destined to get off the Texans’ long rebuild runway. It did look strange to see Cooks sign a two-year, $39.5MM Texans extension in April and then want out by midseason. Cooks’ NBA-esque about-face did not result in a midseason trade. Instead, the veteran deep threat languished on a 3-13-1 Houston team, finishing the season with a career-low 699 receiving yards.

Cooks effectively boycotted the Texans’ first post-trade deadline game but returned to action soon after. Interest came from nearly a fourth of the league, and the Texans listened to offers before the 2022 trading cessation. The team is believed to have sought a second-round pick, which was an unrealistic ask for a ninth-year player with an $18MM guarantee for 2023.

The actual trade price came in far below the 2017, ’18 and ’20 Cooks deals (which collectively involved two first-rounders and a second). After the Cowboys renegotiated Cooks’ deal, the former Saints, Rams and Patriots pass catcher is now part of an exclusive NFL club, being traded four times. Two of Cooks’ six 1,000-yard seasons — for four different clubs — came in Houston, which looks to be without an upper-echelon receiver after this deal.

Extensions and restructures:

Seemingly incongruent with the Texans’ timeline, Tunsil’s presence has offered high-end left tackle play and affected his position’s market. Few would label Tunsil (zero first- or second-team All-Pro nods) as the game’s best tackle, but he has managed his career well. This offseason marked the second time the Texans have made Tunsil the NFL’s highest-paid offensive lineman. The three-time Pro Bowler played a full season for the first time in his career last year, and while a Texans team that has shown no interest in contending (since at least 2020, that is) carrying a high-priced tackle has been a bit strange, checking off this key box has not been a problem thanks to a Bill O’Brien trade.

Months after trading two first-rounders and change to the Dolphins for Tunsil, O’Brien — during a short but eventful run wearing both HC and GM hats — signed off on a three-year, $66MM extension. That made Tunsil by far the NFL’s highest-paid O-lineman. Three years after Tunsil became the NFL’s first $20MM-per-year O-lineman, he is the only $25MM-AAV blocker.

The short-term contracts Tunsil has preferred have proven tremendously beneficial, as they have given him leverage of two contract years coming in his 20s. Tunsil also did not make any real guarantee concessions despite the medium-term deal; his $50MM guarantee figure trails only Ronnie Stanley‘s among tackles. After two seasons without a franchise quarterback to protect, Tunsil will be assigned to Stroud’s blind side. This extension also dropped Tunsil’s 2023 cap hit from $35MM to $26.6MM. Pro Football Focus has graded Tunsil as a top-30 tackle in each of his three non-injury-marred Texans seasons, with last year bringing a career-high placement (11th).

The Texans did authorize a $39MM-per-year Deshaun Watson extension in 2020, but beyond that and the disastrous Brock Osweiler deal they paid the Browns to take on, the franchise has kept QB costs low over the past 10 years. Building around Stroud’s will give the organization flexibility. With no big-ticket wideout, tight end or running back deal on the payroll, Caserio has invested up front. Mason is now signed through 2026 at $12MM per, and right tackle Tytus Howard — who may or may not be on the team’s extension radar — holds the team’s second-largest cap number ($13.98MM).

Mason, 29, joins Tunsil in signing a third contract. The Patriots gave the steady guard a five-year, $45MM deal in 2018, when Caserio remained Bill Belichick‘s right-hand man. Houston’s payroll now includes two eight-figure-AAV O-line deals. This brings a change from recent years, when the Texans opted to add bottom-tier or low-middle-class contracts around Tunsil’s.

In Mason, the Texans have one of the league’s most consistent players. PFF graded the former fourth-round find as a top-10 guard for six straight years (2016-21). After a Bucs one-off, which did feature 17 starts and a top-30 PFF grade, how long will Mason’s prime extend into his Texans years? He will be a key part of the team’s Stroud-years plan.

Caserio has inked numerous veterans to two-year deals during his time as Houston GM. Collins has now signed two of those. The former Cowboys draftee has signed a Texans contract in each of the past three years, coming over in 2021 (one year, $5MM), re-signing in 2022 (two years, $17MM) and now inking a player-friendly extension. Collins, 28, will shift back to a 4-3 scheme under Ryans, after playing two years in Smith’s system. Collins, who was a 4-3 D-tackle in Dallas and Las Vegas, totaled 18 tackles for loss over the past two seasons, representing one of the few Texans bright spots during this bleak period.

Free agency additions:

Caserio’s preferred genre of veteran contract appeared often on the transaction wire this year. Middling talent floods this section, though the team did cut down on its volume of two-year deals compared to 2022. Still, the Texans added a host of veteran role players, stocking Ryans’ defense with potential starters alongside cornerstones Anderson and Derek Stingley and giving new OC Bobby Slowik some skill-position talent.

This contract is not what Schultz envisioned during his year on the franchise tag. The Cowboys are believed to have made their former tight end starter a long-term offer, but the preference for a shorter-term agreement — not a Cowboys specialty — helped lead to Schultz playing on the tag. After missing early-season time due to injury, Schultz still resided as one of Dak Prescott‘s top targets. But his overall and per-game yardage totals were down compared to 2021.

Schultz, 27, will join fellow 2022 tight end tag recipient Mike Gesicki in attempting to boost his value on a one-year deal. The Texans have struggled for nearly a decade to find a reliable pass-catching tight end. No Texan tight end has surpassed 600 receiving yards in a season since Owen Daniels in 2012. Schultz has done that in two of the past three seasons and should be a go-to player on a team likely to be without a No. 1-caliber wide receiver.

Was Woods’ down 2022 a sign of a decline, or was the 527-yard year due to a woeful Titans pass offense and being a year out from an ACL tear? The Texans paid a fairly surprising amount — adding the Titans cap casualty before the market opened — to find out. Woods, 31, did play in all 17 Titans games last season, and he resided as a consistent player (three 900-yard seasons) in Sean McVay‘s attack. With Cooks gone, Houston needs a reliable veteran to foster Stroud’s development. With Nico Collins the team’s top returning receiver, Woods looks to be that player.

As the contracts for Mark Ingram, Rex Burkhead, Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman showed, Caserio has not shied away from veteran backs during his tenure. Singletary will be tasked with supplementing Dameon Pierce this season. The former Florida Atlantic star worked as the most prominent Bills back during Josh Allen‘s career, eclipsing 150 carries in each of his four Buffalo seasons and surpassing 750 rushing yards in three of his four rookie-contract years. The Texans did not possess much behind Pierce last season. Singletary, 25, has not offered much in the passing game, but he is a proven ball-carrier who should have some use as a 1-B option.

Undoubtedly placing a premium on Ward’s leadership and system intel, Ryans had spoken to the nine-year 49ers safety about following him to his next destination before last season ended. Ward, 32 next week, toggled between safety and cornerback during his San Francisco stay. The former first-rounder expressed disappointment in being moved back to the nickel role last season, but while Ryans was leading the 49ers’ defense at that point, the Texans are planning to move Ward back to the safety spot at which he is more comfortable. Ward has battled injuries throughout his career but has made 79 starts. He profiles as a mentor to emerging safety Jalen Pitre.

The Texans also beefed up their defense using one-year contracts, most notably the Rankins agreement. The Jets pushed to keep the former first-round pick, with it turning into a free agency battle between the 49ers’ past two DCs. Rankins’ fit in Robert Saleh‘s Jets defense certainly points to a useful cog for Ryans. The inside pass rusher has not replicated his eight-sack 2018, but at worst, the 29-year-old defender can assist as a rotational option. Ridgeway, 28, has been a 4-3 D-tackle for most of his career, including a 2022 stopover in San Francisco.

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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Rams

By | at July 10, 2023 9:50 pm

Nothing gold can stay. From Sean McVay‘s 2017 arrival through the 2022 offseason, the Rams treated the football world to a win-now mantra. As draft pick-collecting crusades transpired elsewhere, the Rams’ recovery from a 12-year playoff drought produced two Super Bowl berths and a championship. Evading critics with a George Allen-esque, “eff them picks” M.O. that still leaves Jared Goff as the most recent first-rounder the franchise has drafted, the Rams should be lauded for the effort and ability to craft a championship-caliber roster largely without the cost shortcuts other teams lacking a top-shelf quarterback have relied upon in this era.

Los Angeles’ 5-12 offering last season — unequivocally the worst Super Bowl title defense in NFL history — paused the music, and the McVay-Les Snead duo operated with newfound restraint this offseason. The team that has traded its past seven first-round picks stripped its defense of a few linchpins and stopped its spree of big-ticket contracts after a busy 2022 on that front. The presence of cornerstone holdovers blended with a sudden cost-conscious approach makes the Rams’ 2023 outlook difficult to pin down.

Trades:

Rumors about a Ramsey Los Angeles exit started in January, and as an updated Rams blueprint became clearer, the trade winds blew in March. Less than four years after sending the Jaguars two first-round picks for Ramsey, the Rams accepted considerably less to move him. The cornerback’s desire for an updated contract, despite being tied to a top-five accord at his position, affected the compensation the Rams were able to fetch. The Dolphins have since adjusted Ramsey’s deal, giving the 28-year-old defender fully guaranteed salaries in 2023 and ’24.

Ramsey did reward the Rams, earning back-to-back first-team All-Pro nods from 2020-21 and anchoring a Super Bowl-winning team’s secondary. One of Snead’s “eff them picks” victories, Ramsey succeeded as a boundary corner and a matchup-based slot stopper. Pro Football Focus rated Ramsey as a top-10 corner in each of his three full Rams seasons, placing him first in 2021 and third overall during last season’s mess. Ramsey, who sought Miami (NBA-style) as a destination, played three seasons on his five-year, $100MM deal; the former top-five pick will tag the Rams with $19.6MM in dead money this year.

The Rams received good health and elite performance from Ramsey, making this a sobering return package. L.A. saw Aaron Donald‘s run of health cease with a high ankle sprain late last season, but Ramsey played all 17 games. The Florida State product delivered for a team that needed to place late-round picks or UDFAs across from him, though slot cog Troy Hill provided some veteran stability. Ramsey, Hill, Darious Williams and David Long are all out of the picture, leaving L.A. with a gaggle of Day 3 picks and Steelers castoff Ahkello Witherspoon at corner.

The Rams were able to recover from disbanding their Super Bowl LIII Aqib Talib–Marcus Peters pair, but Ramsey played the lead role there. Even with Donald, DC Raheem Morris will have a much tougher time assembling a high-end pass defense this season. Two years remain on Hunter Long’s rookie contract; the former third-round pick has one reception in 16 career games.

A 2022 effort to re-sign Von Miller last year failing led to a pivot to Robinson. That contingency plan burned the Rams, whose aggressiveness has involved a few bad contracts during the Snead-McVay years. Robinson was unable to shake off a down 2021, when he underwhelmed on a Bears franchise tag. His 2022 line: 33 receptions, 339 yards, three touchdowns before a season-ending surgery.

After giving Robinson permission to seek a trade, the Rams needed to pay $5MM of the 10th-year veteran’s 2023 guarantee to convince the Steelers to drop 17 spots in this year’s seventh round. This process continued a late-20s decline for the former Pro Bowler.

Cooper Kupp remains the Rams’ receiving anchor, and Robinson’s exit should not affect the team much. He was unable to create much separation and left defenses keying on the 2021 receiving triple-crown winner. But Kupp’s 2023 batch of wingmen either lack experience or present low ceilings. Kupp missed seven games last season; his 812 receiving yards led the Rams by more than 100 and paced all their wide receivers by over 400. Van Jefferson, an 802-yard receiver in 2021, will attempt to shake off a forgettable 2022. Utilityman Ben Skowronek (376 receiving yards last year), underwhelming and undersized second-round pick Tutu Atwell, UFA addition Demarcus Robinson and fifth-rounder Puka Nacua round out L.A.’s top-heavy receiving cadre.

Free agency additions:

All four of the Rams’ notable UFA acquisitions came after the draft. Michel, 28, looms as the most interesting, as the 2021 trade get has led two Super Bowl-winning teams in rushing. Cam Akers‘ July 2021 Achilles tear initially brought the ex-Patriots first-rounder to L.A. Michel proceeded to lead the Rams’ championship edition in rushing (845 yards — the most by a non-Todd Gurley Ram under McVay) and shed the injury concerns that plagued him with the Patriots by playing in all 21 Rams games that year. Michel spent last season with the Chargers but did not make much of an impact, rushing for only 106 yards and being cut before season’s end.

Despite McVay and Akers not being on the same page for much of last season, leading to a trade request and a genuine Rams effort to move him, the former second-rounder will be given another chance. With only 2022 fifth-rounder Kyren Williams and sixth-round rookie (and one-time five-star recruit) Zach Evans residing behind Akers, it would not surprise if Michel emerged as the Rams’ top backup. Akers, 24, is going into a contract year. With the once-promising Florida State talent not looking like himself much since that Achilles injury, this profiles as a crucial year for his NFL future.

Witherspoon started his career in San Francisco, starting 33 games in four Bay Area seasons. The 6-foot-2 defender signed with the Seahawks, but they traded him to the Steelers before the 2021 season began. Injuries impacted Witherspoon in Pittsburgh; he missed 21 games over the past two seasons. This league-minimum deal qualifies as a flier, but Pro Football Focus rated Witherspoon as a top-20 corner in 2020 and ’21.

Going into his age-29 season, Robinson has served as an auxiliary target for Alex Smith, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in a seven-year career. A backup role might be in the cards for the former fourth-round pick. Robinson, however, has tallied three 400-plus-yard receiving seasons in the past four years. The last of those happened for a Baltimore team forced to trot out Tyler Huntley to close its season; Robinson also scored a touchdown in the Ravens’ playoff loss in Cincinnati.

Re-signings:

Shelton won the Rams’ starting right guard job out of training camp last year. From 2019-21, Shelton had made two starts. Illustrating the Rams’ injury plight last season, he was needed for 13. Having experience at center and guard, Shelton gives the team options. With the injury-prone Brian Allen not a lock to keep his snapping gig, Shelton looms as a backstop. PFF did rank Shelton 30th among centers last season. His profile points to a swing gig, but with Allen struggling to stay healthy, Shelton seeing several starts would not surprise.

With Logan Bruss back from his ACL and MCL tears and second-rounder Steve Avila penciled in as a starter, the Rams are in better shape compared to the blocker infirmary that formed last season.

Notable losses:

Nine regular starters, the team’s season-ending QB1 and both its specialists are no longer in the picture. In their place: mostly rookies. Edwards, Gaines, Scott, Rapp, Wolford and Long played out their rookie contracts. The Rams have let role players walk following the expiration of their rookie deals in the past. But this offseason brought a different goal compared to when the likes of Cory Littleton, Austin Corbett, Gerald Everett or Darious Williams were made expendable to afford higher-priced talent. Stafford, Donald and Kupp keep the stars-and-scrubs blueprint alive, but the Rams said goodbye to more core performers than usual.

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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

By | at July 4, 2023 10:00 pm

In an offseason that eerily resembled the seminal 2008 period, the Packers made two key decisions at quarterback. A third Hall of Fame-bound passer’s Green Bay career has now wrapped, and like the second, Aaron Rodgers relocated to the Big Apple. As they did after trading Brett Favre to the Jets 15 years ago, the Packers will see if a three-year backup can start running with the baton.

Beyond the Rodgers and Jordan Love calls, Green Bay has gone through a low-key offseason. But the team, one looking to bounce back after a disappointing 8-9 season, packed plenty of intrigue into two transactions.

Trades:

Although Rodgers’ three-year, $150.8MM extension was largely hailed at the time as a pact that would allow the four-time MVP to finish his career in Green Bay, rumblings about a separation — while far quieter compared to a turbulent 2021 — came about shortly after the agreement. The Packers then outfitted their latest Canton-bound quarterback with a noticeable receiver downgrade, following the departures of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, helping lead to Rodgers relinquishing his MVP throne. Brian Gutekunst deferred to Rodgers’ MVP trophies when asked if the 15-year starter or Love gave the 2023 team a better chance to win, but the veteran GM also began indicating the backup was ready to start. An eventful three-month period commenced to reach that destination.

At odds during a 2021 offseason in which Rodgers requested a trade, Gutekunst and the superstar QB did not hash out this situation this offseason. As the Packers parties stayed apart, the Jets entered the fray. Making their desperation for a veteran arm known — after Zach Wilson became the latest of their rookie-contract starters to underwhelm — the Jets courted Rodgers and were given permission to meet with him in March. The California summit led to Rodgers signing off on the Favre-ian path.

It took only a conditional third-round pick for the Jets to pry an unretiring Favre’s rights from the Packers. The Buccaneers were in that race as well. While the Jets oddly had the field to themselves for Rodgers this offseason, the Packers were able to obtain much more in compensation. Green Bay initially angled for a Russell Wilson-type haul — which the Broncos parted with after seeing their inquiries into Rodgers shut down during the 2021 and ’22 offseasons — talks eventually centered on a first-round pick changing hands.

It had been assumed the Packers could not fetch a first-rounder for a player no longer in their plans and one due a $58.3MM bonus before Week 1, but Green Bay did reasonably well in these trade talks. The Jets still made a 2023 first-round pick — though not the one they wanted to make, by almost every account — but even after Gutekunst said a trade not involving a ’23 first could happen, the Pack still made out with a first-rounder in this momentous swap.

Had the Packers shipped Rodgers to Denver two years ago, they would have obtained more compared to what they received this year. Rodgers was 37 then and coming off MVP No. 3. But Green Bay clearly had not seen enough from Love at that point. By 2022, Love’s career plunged into rare territory, as the unprecedented — since the 2011 CBA reshaped rookie contracts, that is — modern QB heir apparent to finish a third season as a backup. But the Packers viewed Love, who underwhelmed in his lone start of consequence (a short-notice Arrowhead Stadium cameo after Rodgers’ COVID-19 contraction in November 2021) as having made steady progress last year. Despite Love being the team’s preferred 2023 starter, the Packers managed to collect a second-round pick and swap first-rounders. Barring a notable Rodgers injury, they are likely to land the Jets’ 2024 first.

The Jets’ 2024 first will transfer to the Packers if Rodgers plays 65% of Gang Green’s offensive snaps. Since Rodgers took the reins from Favre in 2008, he crossed that threshold 13 times. Only injury-abbreviated 2013 and 2017 seasons featured the increasingly outspoken icon falling short. If Rodgers reaches that mark for the Jets, the Packers will enter a draft with two first-round picks for the third time in six years.

In 2008, the Jets and Packers placed conditions on how far Favre led that ’08 Gang Green iteration. Favre’s biceps injury burned the Jets in that trade, and the non-playoff-bound ’08 team’s 9-7 finish led to only a third-rounder coming Green Bay’s way. This time, Gutekunst and Joe Douglas tethered the pick to Rodgers’ playing time. And the Packers also escaped these talks without anything tied to Rodgers’ 2024 status. Rumors of the Pack sending a 2025 draft choice to the Jets — in the event Rodgers retired after one New York season — emerged, and the teams discussed this option. But no such terms made the trade’s final cut.

Rodgers told Pat McAfee Show listeners he was 90% retired going into his darkness retreat. While that could certainly spook Jets fans, the 19th-year veteran showed up for OTAs after passing on them during his final two Green Bay years. Rodgers attempted to downplay his 2022 workout absence’s connection to a substandard season, but after failed Adams extension talks led to a trade, the aging passer ranked 26th in QBR with a career-worst (by a substantial margin) 39.3 figure. Rodgers’ yards-per-attempt number checked in at 6.8 — his lowest since the 2015 Jordy Nelson-less season — and his 12 interceptions were the second-most he has thrown in a season. The Jets are betting the Packers’ situation led to that regression, while Green Bay cut bait after the MVP form faded.

The all-time QB talent leaves Green Bay with 10 Pro Bowls, a Super Bowl ring and five NFC championship game appearances. Even with Rodgers submitting countless memorable moments and some of the greatest throws in playoff history, his postseason resume figures to be discussed for decades. The Packers’ issues on defense and conservative approach in free agency during much of Rodgers’ career worked against their cornerstone player, but while the team famously avoided drafting a first-round wide receiver or tight end during this span, the Love pick led to Rodgers reigniting after down years in 2018 and ’19. As Rodgers will aim to prove the Packers wrong for ending his starter tenure, Green Bay will now see if trading up for a Utah State quarterback was the right call.

Free agency additions:

Simone Biles’ sudden Green Bay ties, via husband Owens’ signing, probably serves as the most memorable component associated with the Packers’ free agency class. The team did add some safety depth during free agency, picking up multiple options ahead of a layered competition. The winner of the Owens-Moore-Rudy Ford position battle will be positioned, barring a late-summer addition, to start alongside Darnell Savage.

A former third-round 49ers pick, Moore has 13 starts on his resume and intercepted Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV. Moore also missed all of 2021, seeing his contract year toll to 2022, due to injury. He of a 4.32-second 40-yard dash clocking, Moore played both cornerback and safety in San Francisco. A Division II success story out of Missouri Western, Owens started 17 Texans games last season. This did not generate the former UDFA much of a market; Pro Football Focus rated Owens and Savage as two of the NFL’s three worst regular safeties last season.

Re-signings:

Incentives can max out Nixon’s deal at $6MM, and void years — the NFL’s financial workaround of the moment — are present in the contract. Playing-time benchmarks start at the 45% threshold, and Nixon reaching 55% of the Packers’ defensive snaps will earn him a total of $750K. Two- and four-interception escalators at the same $250K rates are here as well, and given the role the Packers will give him a chance to earn, these numbers should not be considered farfetched.

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Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

By | at July 2, 2023 10:01 pm

While last season marked the Broncos’ sixth straight sub-.500 campaign, it was easily the most memorable letdown for the franchise during its post-Super Bowl 50 swoon. Denver’s attempt to pair blockbuster trade acquisition Russell Wilson and first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett backfired spectacularly, with the latter joining Urban Meyer (2021) and Pete McCulley (49ers, 1978) as the only NFL head coaches to be fired before their first season ended. Hackett’s managerial struggles were noticeable early, and they played a role in Wilson slogging through a disastrous 11th season. As a result, the franchise is resetting once again.

The Broncos will attempt to pick up the pieces, putting Sean Payton behind the wheel. Despite the team’s descent to the NFL’s basement offensively, most of the starters from a top-10 DVOA defense remain in place. So do the wide receivers the Broncos have retained as they cycled through quarterbacks and play-callers over the past few years. Expectations are lower for the 2023 Broncos, given Wilson’s concerning 2022, but this looks like bounce-back candidate.

Trades:

Denver’s fourth coaching search since Super Bowl 50 ended with the franchise reeling in the biggest fish in its history. While Mike Shanahan put together a Hall of Fame-caliber résumé during his 14-year Denver HC tenure, Payton certainly brought a higher profile as a candidate. The 15-year Saints coach — responsible for nine of the franchise’s 10 postseason wins — brings a Super Bowl ring and a reputation as one of the game’s premier offensive minds. The Broncos have now hired back-to-back offensive coaches; Payton will double as a restorer-in-chief given the circumstances here.

Although the Broncos appeared ready to offer DeMeco Ryans their HC gig, Payton hovered on the radar from the start of the franchise’s search. The Rob Walton-led ownership group, which bought the team after the Hackett hire, conducted a search that had stalled by late January. Ryans preferred Houston, while Dan Quinn — a Broncos finalist in 2022 — bowed out. Interviewing for an NFL job for a second straight offseason, Jim Harbaugh stayed at Michigan. Harbaugh loomed as a 1-B option behind Payton, but as the latter interviewed for the Texans, Cardinals and Panthers’ positions, Broncos CEO Greg Penner flew to Ann Arbor for a second Harbaugh meeting. Just as Denver’s HC search teetered on collapse, this ownership group’s first such effort produced a well-received ending.

Payton, 59, held the leverage of spending a second year at FOX. Connected to interest in the Chargers and Cowboys’ jobs last year, the recent TV analyst could have waited for one of those to open up in 2024. (Then again, he seemed prepared to coach Tom Brady in 2022, leading to the Dolphins tampering punishment.) The Broncos needed to convince Payton to make his move in 2023, and doing so likely means a top-market coaching salary. Seeing as there is no coaching salary cap, the NFL’s wealthiest owner was presumably unconcerned about Payton’s financial price tag. But the Broncos also needed to part with major draft compensation for Payton, completing the biggest HC trade since the Buccaneers sent the Raiders two first-round picks and two seconds for Jon Gruden in 2002.

The Broncos’ decision to deal Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins at last year’s deadline proved crucial for Payton ammunition, as Denver sent the Miami-obtained pick to New Orleans as the centerpiece of the swap for the accomplished HC’s rights. The teams also exchanged 2024 Day 2 picks. From March 2022 to January 2023, the Broncos traded three first-round picks to secure a Wilson-Payton foundation. After untested candidates in Hackett and Vance Joseph sandwiched acclaimed defensive boss Vic Fangio, who was given three primary QB1s in three years, the Broncos probably needed to swing big.

Drew Brees morphed from inconsistent Charger to the league’s all-time passing kingpin under Payton, who elevated the Saints to the NFC championship game in his first season (2006), piloted them to a Super Bowl XLIV win and was a historically controversial pass interference non-call from coaching in Super Bowl LIII. Payton harnessed Brees’ talents, but the ex-San Diego draftee’s deadly accuracy drove the Saints’ offense for 15 years. Payton will be in charge of restoring Wilson, who once named the Saints as an acceptable 2021 trade destination before reportedly attempting to bring the coach to Seattle last year.

Under Hackett, Wilson was given significant input in the design of Denver’s offense. Wilson’s attempt to operate as a Brees-like pocket passer crash-landed, leading to relentless criticism of the perennial Pro Bowl QB. If Wilson is unable to rebound at 34 under Payton, his future in Denver — and perhaps his Hall of Fame status, which once seemed a safe bet after two Super Bowl starts and six original-ballot Pro Bowl nods — could potentially be in doubt. Even if Wilson may still have a good chance of reaching Canton regardless of his Denver tenure, a semblance of doubt creeping in creates a fascinating high-stakes backdrop for the Broncos’ 2023 season.

Wilson’s effort to shake off a career-worst QBR (36.7 — 27th) and completion percentage (60.5) figures will go a long way toward solidifying his future and the post-2023 Colorado future of GM George Paton. Hired during the Broncos’ period without a true owner, Paton has hit on some decisions — most notably the Patrick Surtain II pick during what looks like a fruitful 2021 draft for the team — but has now lost power after the Hackett and Wilson calls. While the Broncos’ Payton-Paton partnership (which should produce some good sentence challenges while it lasts) is a go for 2023, it is not hard to foresee the new HC bringing in one of his former Saints allies if Wilson has truly seen his prime conclude.

Free agency additions:

Injuries up front tossed another piece of debris onto the Broncos’ path last season, and the team has made an annual ritual of changing right tackles. In the early hours of the legal tampering period, the Broncos paid up to solve this decade-long problem. McGlinchey, 28, is slated to become Denver’s 11th Week 1 right tackle starter in 11 years. After the Broncos skimped at the position in 2022, via low-cost deals for Billy Turner and Tom Compton, Payton greenlit a top-five right tackle contract that reminded of the deal he OK’d for Ryan Ramczyk in New Orleans. Four years after the Broncos’ 2019 Ja’Wuan James investment bombed, they will bet on another ex-first-rounder at this position.

The 49ers used McGlinchey as a five-year right tackle starter. While not viewed as an elite pass protector, McGlinchey aided Kyle Shanahan‘s offense in the run game. He wrapped his rookie-contract San Francisco run by ranking fifth in ESPN’s run block win rate among all tackles. After Turner missed half of last season and Compton was healthy for all of one game, the Broncos saw their O-line depth issues — compounded by Garett Bolles‘ Week 5 leg fracture — lead to Wilson taking a league-high 55 sacks. To help prevent a recurrence, the Broncos gave McGlinchey a contract that includes a practical guarantee of $52.5MM (via his 2025 base salary locking in by March 2024). This helped push the Bears to drop out of the pursuit.

Dating back to the Jahri Evans–Carl Nicks tandem, Payton has placed a premium on interior protection. This carried through to the Saints’ Andrus Peat–Erik McCoy–Cesar Ruiz trio. The Broncos have not seen Lloyd Cushenberry become an above-average center, but the team is well stocked at guard after prying Powers from the Ravens. Powers, 26, brings an interesting profile; he was battling for a starting job as recently as last year. Powers won Baltimore’s left guard job and parlayed that into a $13MM-per-year contract. ESPN’s pass block win rate metric ranked Powers in the top 10 at guard last year. Set to replace four-year starter Dalton Risner, Powers will pair with 2021 third-rounder Quinn Meinerz — a top-10 guard in 2022, per Pro Football Focus — to form a promising tandem.

Although the Payton-Paton power structure wanted to retain Dre’Mont Jones, one of new DC Vance Joseph‘s Cardinals charges will step in to replace him at a slightly lower rate. A 3-4 defensive end alongside J.J. Watt in Arizona, Allen led all D-linemen with eight pass deflections last season. Allen, who finished last season with career-high marks in sacks (5.5) and quarterback hits (20), spent each of his four Cardinals seasons in Joseph’s system. The 26-year-old D-lineman will team with 2022 free agency pickup D.J. Jones in Joseph’s 3-4 scheme. In McGlinchey, Allen and Powers, the Broncos signed three of PFR’s top 19 free agents.

In landing Perine during the tampering period, the Broncos took an unexpected route at running back. Despite the likes of Devin Singletary, Damien Harris and Kareem Hunt remaining on the board, the Broncos brought in Joe Mixon‘s longtime backup. Perine performed well in relief of Mixon over the past two years, and even with the ex-Mixon Oklahoma sidekick (and owner of a still-standing Division I-FBS single-game rushing record) heading into his age-28 season, he has taken just 401 handoffs over a six-year career. As teams shy away from late-20s running backs, the Broncos will bet on one that should have some notable mileage left.

The Perine addition may be impeding the Broncos re: Dalvin Cook, though the team is tentatively expecting starter Javonte Williams — who tore his ACL and LCL in Week 4 — to return by its regular-season opener. Payton’s Pierre Thomas–Reggie Bush/Alvin Kamara–Mark Ingram backfields point to Perine seeing extensive run. Perine last totaled more than 100 carries in a season in 2017.

At this point last year, the Broncos looked set to deploy a deep edge-rushing corps. But the team’s $14MM-per-year Randy Gregory investment took on some water after his early-season knee injury. After trading Malik Reed, the Broncos later dealt Chubb to the Dolphins. With Gregory coming off another injury-limited season and converted inside linebacker Baron Browning set to miss training camp time due to a summer knee surgery, Clark will be asked to step in.

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12 comments Denver Broncos Offseason In Review PFR Originals

2022 Offseason In Review Series

By | at September 10, 2022 10:46 pm

This season will feature 12 new Week 1 starting quarterbacks, though the Jets’ decision is the result of an injury rather than a roster move. High-profile wide receivers also changed teams, igniting one of the biggest market shifts a single position has seen. The Offseason In Review series is now complete. Here are the PFR staff’s looks at how the 32 NFL teams assembled their 2022 rosters.

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

6 comments Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys Denver Broncos Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Kansas City Chiefs Las Vegas Raiders Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles Rams Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings New England Patriots New Orleans Saints New York Giants New York Jets Offseason In Review Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans Washington Commanders

Offseason In Review: Seattle Seahawks

By | at September 10, 2022 4:30 pm

The Russell Wilson era doubled as the peak of the Seahawks’ 46-year existence. The third-round pick Seattle invested in 10 years ago helped the team build a championship nucleus, and after most of the defensive cogs from the back-to-back Super Bowl teams departed, Wilson’s development as a passer kept the Seahawks in the playoff mix. This season will look quite different for the franchise, which bailed on the prospect of an 11th Wilson season and third extension.

Trades:

Hours after Aaron Rodgers‘ Packers recommitment, the Broncos pulled the trigger for Wilson. Pete Carroll‘s Combine comments indicating the Seahawks had “no intention” of trading the top quarterback in franchise history came after GM John Schneider had opened trade talks with Broncos counterpart George Paton. The Wilson-Carroll relationship had steadily deteriorated, and the Seahawks became leery of what it would cost to give their star QB a fourth contract. The noise Wilson made about the team’s offensive line and the trade-destination list that surfaced in February 2021 irked the Seahawks, and the 11th-year veteran was unlikely to do another Seahawks extension. This all led to the HC-GM combo that drafted Wilson dealing him for major draft capital with two years left on his contract.

Being willing to part with three first-round picks for Wilson, the Commanders may have presented the best trade package. But Washington was not a Wilson-preferred destination. Although the Bears, Cowboys, Raiders and Saints were on Wilson’s initial 2021 destination list, the Broncos and Giants were quietly added late last year. The Giants and Saints called the Seahawks this year, but Wilson — one of the few NFLers with a no-trade clause — had zeroed in on Denver. For the first time since Matt Hasselbeck‘s 2011 exit ushered in Tarvaris Jackson as Seattle’s starter, the Seahawks have a foggy future at the game’s premier position.

Carroll’s run-heavy M.O. and the Seahawks’ penchant for skimping on offensive linemen (Duane Brown excepted) gnawed at Wilson, the centerpiece of middling rosters over the past few seasons. Seattle attempted more run plays than any team over Wilson’s tenure. Some of those were Wilson scrambles, but Brady Henderson ESPN.com notes team ranked 29th in designed pass-play rate since 2012. That number only climbed to 21st since Wilson broke through as a passer in 2015, making atypical use of a top-tier quarterback contract. Since the “Let Russ Cook” start to the 2020 season preceded a midseason swoon, Carroll largely went back to his preferred style.

Wilson’s extension talks in 2015 and 2019 generated a number of headlines, and each resolution produced a big number ($21.9MM per year in 2015, then-NFL-high $35MM per annum in ’19). Seattle could not recapture the formula it had when it capitalized on one of the great bargains in NFL history; Wilson’s four-year, $2.99MM deal that was on the team’s books as it claimed consecutive NFC championships. During Wilson’s second and third contracts, however, he became one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.

Since a 2015 season in which Wilson broke through for 34 touchdown passes (after tossing 20 in 2014), his QBR figures have ranked fourth, 15th, 10th, 11th, fifth, eighth and 10th. The final number came despite Wilson struggling in the games immediately following his finger surgery. Wilson made the Seahawks one of the NFL’s highest-floor teams, though rosters that were not on the level of the 2013 and ’14 squads continually ran into first- or second-round obstacles following Super Bowl XLIX.

Some Seahawks staffers viewed Wilson as declining, at 33, but trading him forfeits the franchise access to the NFL’s most common championship route. Carroll opting for a restart/transition year is a bit curious, considering he is the league’s oldest active HC (71 next week). The strategy will apply considerable pressure for Carroll (signed through 2025) and Schneider to strike gold again. Two first-round picks next year — when a far better QB class is expected to emerge compared to 2022 — will help Seattle’s cause, but the odds are against the Seahawks finding a player capable of Wilson’s performance level. The Seahawks also may see the Texans and Lions, each holding two first-rounders without a clear long-term QB plan as well, outflank them in the 2023 draft.

Schneider sought Lock, having liked the former Missouri prospect in 2019, but the failed Broncos starter not beating out Geno Smith represents an early warning sign of the post-Wilson road the Seahawks are about to travel. Lock and the other below-average brigade of Broncos quarterbacks hindered Fant’s progress, but the former No. 20 overall pick may find footing difficult with Smith and/or Lock (again). Harris, 31, became a steady contributor in Denver, moving into a starter role and helping Vic Fangio‘s defense as an inside rusher and frequent passing-lane deterrent. Harris’ 19 passes defensed during his starter years (2019-21) lead all defensive linemen. Harris’ three-year, $27MM Broncos-authorized extension runs through 2023.

Free agency additions:

Nwosu will move from Joey Bosa‘s sidekick to a player that will be expected to produce as a No. 1 edge rusher. Swapping out Carlos Dunlap for a younger talent, the Seahawks will bank on Nwosu taking a step forward. Even with Bosa drawing O-lines’ attention, Nwosu registered just five sacks in 17 games. Nwosu’s 30 pressures did rank 31st last season and were six more than any Seahawk logged in 2021. A second-rounder out of USC, Nwosu should be coming into his prime. He will not turn 26 until December.

A hybrid player who should fit as the Seahawks transition to more 3-4 looks, Jefferson is back after two years away. Seeing time at D-end and D-tackle, Jefferson started 24 games for the Seahawks’ 2018 and ’19 iterations. He made 17 starts for the Raiders last season, totaling career-high numbers in sacks (4.5) and quarterback hits (16).

While Jefferson should be a rotational cog in Seattle, Blythe looks set to go from seldom-used Chiefs backup (12 offensive snaps behind Creed Humphrey last season) to a full-time starter again. This could be an upgrade for the Seahawks. Blythe started at center and guard for three straight seasons with the Rams, including their Super Bowl LIII-qualifying squad. Pro Football Focus graded him as a top-11 guard in 2018 and top-11 center two years later. Blythe, 30, has a clear comeback opportunity for a team that will make no secret of its desire for a smashmouth approach.

Re-signings:

This season brings 11 starting quarterbacks on rookie salaries, two more on fifth-year options and 19 tied to veteran deals. The veteran contingent now houses nine QBs earning $40MM-plus on average. Four more are tied to contracts worth more than $30MM per year. Tom Brady, who has a few income streams and a lavish FOX contract awaiting him, and Ryan Tannehill come in just south of $30MM AAV. Jameis Winston signed a two-year, $28MM pact, while Marcus Mariota — who has not been a full-time starter since October 2019 — signed a two-year, $18.75MM accord in March. Mitch Trubisky signed a two-year, $14MM Steelers deal. Then, there is Geno Smith, a 10th-year veteran who will be a 2022 starting quarterback on a $1.26MM base salary.

Smith, 32 next month, will make his first Week 1 start since 2014. Knocked off his Jets QB1 perch in 2015 (the IK Enemkpali incident), Smith not only never regained any footing with the Jets; he kept signing with teams who employed historically durable quarterbacks (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson). In what looks like a transition year in which the Seahawks will be connected to college quarterbacks, Smith returns. Discipline for his January DUI arrest may loom, however, though it is not a lock punishment comes this year.

Largely unimpressive with the Jets, the veteran backup fared better than expected in his midseason Wilson relief effort (68% completion rate, 5-1 TD-INT ratio, 7.4 yards per attempt). It would seem Lock will work his way into some starts this season, but Smith does profile as the better fit for a conservative offense. For now, Smith will make one of the stranger Week 1 re-emergences in modern QB annals. Although this $3.5MM number is a raise for Smith, the salaries Mariota, Winston and Trubisky are earning illustrate the rest of the league’s view of him. Smith also re-signed in mid-April, after the Browns chose Jacoby Brissett — who is also out-earning Smith — to fill in for Deshaun Watson.

The Seahawks kept passing on the quarterbacks that fell to this year’s third round; they did not view Malik Willis as NFL-ready. Waiting for a superior 2023 class makes sense, and Carroll said post-draft the Seahawks were unlikely to make another QB trade this offseason. They stuck to their guns.

Seattle let Carolina have Baker Mayfield for a conditional 2024 fifth-rounder and showed no interest in parting with an asset for Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks did homework on Garoppolo and lurked as a landing spot for the former Super Bowl starter in free agency, but given how diligent Garoppolo’s camp was in attempting to find a team that would pay more than the money he is now tied to with the 49ers ($6.5MM salary; $15.45MM max value via playing-time incentives), it looks like the Seahawks were not willing to offer too much money. Garoppolo and Mayfield have obviously proven much more than Smith; that could have impeded Seattle’s 2022 plan.

Dealt repeated injury blows, Penny made an 11th-hour push for some second-contract cash and will be Seattle’s Week 1 starter for the first time. As fantasy GMs observed, Penny exploded for four 130-yard rushing games in his final five contests and finished with an NFL-leading 6.3 yards per carry (on 119 totes) in his fourth season. The surprise 2018 first-rounder has missed 28 career games, but the Seahawks offered lower-middle-class running back dough to see how legitimate that season-closing stretch was.

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10 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Seattle Seahawks
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