Poll: Who Will Be The First QB Selected?
This year’s quarterback class is widely considered to be a weak one, but that has not stopped the usual pre-draft chatter surrounding the top signal-caller prospects. After all, quarterback is the most important position in all of sports, so even in a down year, teams without a long-term solution under center will be anxious to find one.
North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky is considered by many to be the most talented passer in the draft, but he has only one year of starting experience at the collegiate level, and that has led some to wonder whether he is truly ready to take the next step. Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech has seen his stock rise dramatically over the past several months, and it has been speculated that he could be a top-3 pick.
Meanwhile, the Bills are said to be “in love” with Clemson’s Deshaun Watson (my personal favorite), though there are concerns about his instincts and decision-making. And Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer has a strong arm, but questions about his accuracy persist, and in late January, we heard that scouts were “cooling” on him.
Further complicating projections is the sheer number of teams who could theoretically draft a QB on Day 1. The Browns are almost certain to select DE Myles Garrett with the No. 1 overall selection, but they could have their pick of the litter when they are back on the clock at No. 12. The 49ers, who currently hold the No. 2 overall pick — but who are apparently open to trading down — could also draft a quarterback in the first round, as could the Bears (No. 3 overall), Jets (N0. 6), Bills (No. 10), Cardinals (No. 13), Texans (No. 25), Chiefs (No. 27), and Saints (who hold the No. 11 and No. 32 picks, but who would be more likely to use the No. 32 pick on a passer). And those are just the obvious possibilities.
In PFR’s first mock draft, Dallas Robinson projects Trubisky as the first QB off the board, predicting that the Browns would snag him with the No. 12 selection. After that, our mock shows the Chiefs trading up to No. 24 to land Watson, while the Saints nab Kizer with the last pick of the first round.
But what do you think? Make your voice heard in the poll below, and let us know your thoughts on this year’s class in the comments section.
PFR’s 2017 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
The 2017 NFL draft is less than a month away, and while the first overall pick may be nearly set in stone, the rest of the first round is as muddled as its ever been. A lot can and will happen between now and April 27th, and there are still plenty of teams near the top that could go in a number of different directions on draft day.
Pro Football Rumors’ first mock draft of 2017 is below. To be clear, this is our projection of what will happen – not necessarily the choices we would make – based on reports and information gathered from beat and national writers, our general assessment of this year’s crop of prospects, and, of course, team needs. Let’s dive in:
1. Cleveland Browns – Myles Garrett, LB, Texas A&M
The easiest prediction of the first round, Garrett was considered the favorite to be selected first overall for much of the collegiate season. Nothing Garrett has done since the 2016 campaign concluded has changed that outlook, and the Browns reportedly have an “astronomical grade” on the Aggie edge rusher. At the scouting combine, Garrett weighed in at 272 pounds, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.64 seconds, and posted 33 bench press reps. Cleveland was “blown away” by the numbers, and it will pick Garrett knowing he can single-handedly alter their front seven.
2. Carolina Panthers (projected trade with San Francisco) – Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford
Rumor has it the Panthers are interested in acquiring the No. 2 pick from the 49ers, and I’ve projected that trade will indeed occur (last week, I examined what sort of package Carolina may need to sacrifice in order to move up). While Leonard Fournette could also garner consideration, the Panthers will take Thomas, another signal that Carolina general manager Dave Gettleman values the defensive line above all else. Veteran defensive ends Charles Johnson and Julius Peppers are only signed through 2017, and Thomas would give the Panthers long-term security on the edge. He can slide inside, as well, protecting Carolina against free agent defections by Star Lotulelei and/or Kawann Short.
3. Chicago Bears – Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
While the Bears have a number of needs on both sides of the ball, they could stand to add another cornerback, and in Lattimore they’ll secure the best CB in the draft. Chicago did add Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper in free agency, but Amukamara signed a one-year deal and Cooper has done nothing to prove he’s a starting NFL defensive back. Former first-round pick Kyle Fuller‘s time with the Bears may be coming to an end, and Lattimore would give Chicago shutdown corner potential from day one. Chicago hosted Lattimore on a predraft visit on Monday.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars – O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
Defense shouldn’t be a problem in Jacksonville this season, as the team has invested heavy resources — both dollars and draft capital — on the defensive side of the ball over the past two years. The Jaguars’ offense, however, ranked just 27th in DVOA in 2016, and while much of the struggle can be attributed to Blake Bortles and a poor front five, Jacksonville isn’t going to replace Bortles immediately, and there are no offensive linemen worthy of the No. 4 pick. Instead, the Jags will select one of the safer players in the draft, pinpointing Howard to replace free agent whiff Julius Thomas, who was traded to Miami last month.
5. Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles Rams) – Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
The Titans could still use help at both wide receiver and cornerback, but with another pick in Round 1 to address other needs, general manager Jon Robinson goes with the best player available and selects Allen. At least one AFC personnel director believes Allen’s shoulder issues could lead to a draft-day tumble, but Allen would give Tennessee a truly dominant defensive line. He’d team with lineman Jurrell Casey and Sylvester Williams and edge rushers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan on one of the league’s more underrated front sevens.
6. New York Jets – Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
Gang Green isn’t in a great position at No. 6. Lattimore and Howard may have been the club’s best options, but they’re now off the board, and it’s difficult to see the Jets selecting another linebacker or defensive lineman given their first-round investments over the past several years. Under center, New York seems to want to give 2016 second-rounder Christian Hackenberg a chance to play, and the team’s visits with this year’s top quarterback prospects are largely viewed as smokescreens. Safety probably isn’t a priority for the Jets, but the the team simply needs talent, and Hooker is the best player left.
7. Los Angeles Chargers – Jamal Adams, S, LSU
Hooker is a better fit for new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley‘s scheme, but Adams will work as well. While he’s not the center fielder that Hooker is, Adams offers the type of versatility the Chargers covet. Los Angeles has yet to replace Eric Weddle, who left after the 2015 season, and while it re-signed Jahleel Addae last month, Adams would serve as an improvement over Dwight Lowery. The Bolts could begin eyeing a long-term replacement for Philip Rivers this year, but they won’t use the seventh pick to find their franchise quarterback.
8. San Francisco 49ers (projected trade with Carolina) – Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama
Even after signing 13 external free agents, the 49ers still have holes all over their roster. Foster would be in consideration for San Francisco even if it holds on to the No. 2 selection, but in this scenario, the club has traded down to acquire more assets while still getting the player it originally targeted. Foster has some negatives — a February shoulder surgery, a dust-up with a hospital worker at the combine — but he’s unquestionably one of the more talented players in the 2017 class. An inside ‘backer by trade, Foster would likely slide into the weak side in the Bay Area given the presence of NaVorro Bowman.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
If the Bengals have a “type,” it’s productive players from the SEC. During Marvin Lewis‘ 14-year run as head coach, Cincinnati has selected a first-round SEC prospect half the time. Barnett fits that mold, as he topped Reggie White’s Tennessee sack record of 33 in only three years. Doubters, however, worry Barnett’s physical traits don’t match his production. But the Bengals need to upgrade on defensive end Michael Johnson, who hasn’t posted an above-average season since 2013. Wide receiver could be another option here, as could a trade back, especially if quarterback-needy clubs want to jump ahead of Buffalo, New Orleans, and Cleveland.
10. Buffalo Bills – Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
Corey Brown. Andre Holmes. Dezmin Lewis. Brandon Tate. Jeremy Butler. Those are the names on the Bills’ wide receiver depth chart behind Sammy Watkins. It’s the worst group of supplementary pass-catchers in the NFL, and while Buffalo’s offense is heavily run-focused, Tyrod Taylor still needs someone to throw to besides Watkins. Davis comes from a small school, but he’s been extremely productive against lesser production, topping 1,400 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. He’d immediately become the Bills’ No. 2 receiver.
Poll: Who Will Be No. 2 Overall Pick?
Barring something unexpected, Myles Garrett can begin researching the ins and outs of Cleveland. The Texas A&M standout looks destined to head to the Browns, who are not planning to unload the No. 1 pick for a quarterback.
The No. 2 choice, though, doesn’t appear nearly as certain. A number of talents could hear their names called when the 49ers or another team turns in the draft’s second player card.
San Francisco will be open to trading the No. 2 overall selection, which the Browns did last year in acquiring draft picks to send Carson Wentz to Philadelphia. The 49ers have needs at many positions after going 2-14 last season and having parted ways with their coach following the past three campaigns. They have been monitoring the quarterbacks in this class. They worked out Mitch Trubisky, and John Lynch attended Patrick Mahomes‘ pro day. The 49ers also visited with Garrett and Reuben Foster.
The team has short- and long-term questions at quarterback. The 49ers signed the 2016 Bears’ Nos. 2 and 3 quarterbacks in Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley, and Hoyer would probably be the starter as of now. But the team has also been connected to Kirk Cousins, and with a Redskins extension for the signal-caller not gaining any steam, might San Francisco be content to start Hoyer in this rebuilding season and either take the second-best player in the draft or add picks from another team? With ex-Redskins OC Kyle Shanahan now at the controls, the 49ers would seemingly be a top destination for Cousins in 2018. A third Washington franchise tag in ’18 is untenable, so no extension by July 15 could trigger a unique modern bidding war next year.
Players like Foster, edge man Solomon Thomas and interior defender Jonathan Allen have also been connected to the 49ers, who have used first-round picks fortifying their defensive interior — in Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner — the past two years. They are also switching to a 4-3 scheme after many years in base 3-4 looks. Their defense plummeted to No. 32 in the league last season, with just two players registering more than three sacks. Defensive backs Jamal Adams (LSU) and Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State) have been generating top-five buzz after the Combine, and the 49ers are thin in the secondary as well. Beyond quarterback, mock drafts are leaning to a potential impact defender going to San Francisco.
But would the 49ers, whose offense ranked 31st in 2016, be better unloading this coveted selection and gathering potential starters with the returns of a trade?
The Panthers are interested in acquiring the 49ers’ pick, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report notes, with the purpose of said swap being Thomas or Leonard Fournette. Other teams could also be pondering that move as well. It would almost certainly cost the Panthers their second-round pick (No. 40) and possibly their third-rounder as well, with certain value models requiring Carolina to surrender more assets to complete that deal. But Fournette probably isn’t going to go to the 49ers if they keep the pick.
Wentz was not believed to be a No. 2 overall-level talent until the Eagles pulled the trigger on their seminal trade. A quarterback-needy team could still be looking at a trade centered around taking Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer or even Mahomes — the quartet’s enduring scrutiny notwithstanding — and shake up the draft like the Titans, Browns, Rams and Eagles did last year. But these quarterbacks have not received the praise Jared Goff (and eventually Wentz) did, further complicating this draft.
So, where would the 49ers go with their selection? Should they take a quarterback and bypass a potential Cousins pursuit? Should they go with one of the impact front-seven Alabama stalwarts in Allen or Foster? Or after bolstering their defensive interior the past two years, is an edge threat like Thomas in the cards? Would another team make a deal to land one of the quarterbacks or Fournette? Take PFR’s latest poll to weigh in on this unique draft.
PFR Originals: 3/26/17 – 4/2/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- With rumors swirling that the Panthers would like to acquire the No. 2 overall pick from the 49ers, I examined what Carolina would have to sacrifice to move up to the top of Round 1. Using Chase Stuart of Football Perspective’s draft value chart, I worked out a trade that would see Carolina send the eighth selection, a second-rounder, and a fifth-rounder to San Francisco in exchange for No. 2, a fourth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder. The classic, Jimmy Johnson-devised value chart, however, would force the Panthers to ship much more to the Niners.
- An Indoor Football League team declined to sign Greg Hardy following a fan vote, leading Zach Links to ask if an NFL club should consider inking the controversial defensive end. Hardy, still only 28 years old, is an exceptionally talented player, but no team wants to touch him after his history of domestic violence (and his lack of accountability). Thus far, PFR readers agree with devotees of the Salt Lake City Screamers — more than 80% of respondents don’t think Hardy should land a contract.
How The Panthers Can Move To No. 2 Overall
The latest rumor buzzing around the draft world involves the Panthers considering a trade up to acquire the second overall pick from the 49ers, as Matt Miller of Bleacher Report indicated yesterday. Carolina would reportedly move up with the intention of selecting either Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas or LSU running back Leonard Fournette.
But what would such a trade look like? San Francisco, in the midst of a full rebuild, would likely aim to secure more draft wealth, while the Panthers — presumably in win-now mode — are probably willing to part with draft assets. As Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote earlier this week, Carolina has amassed the league’s seventh-most draft capital this offseason , so the club certainly has resources to utilize if it wants to make an upward leap.
According to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective‘s draft value chart, the Panthers wouldn’t have to sacrifice all that much to move from No. 8 to No. 2. Per Stuart, the gap in the two picks is just 8.8 points of draft value, meaning Carolina’s 40th overall pick (worth 11.1 points) would be more than enough to get a deal done. The No. 64 pick — acquired from the Patriots in the Kony Ealy trade– is worth 8.1 points, meaning that it would almost be enough to entice the 49ers.
Let’s take a look at a few potential trades in chart form, using Stuart’s values:
That final trade listed involves the 49ers sending the No. 2 overall pick, an early fourth-rounder, and an early seventh-rounder to the Panthers in exchange for No. 8, No. 40, and an early fifth-round pick. The difference in draft value comes out to 0.0, meaning it’s a perfectly fair deal for both sides — at least on paper.
The classic, Jimmy Johnson-devised trade chart, however, assigns a much greater valuation to early first-round picks, so the Panthers would have to trade much more in order to secure the No. 2 selection. In Johnson’s table, the gap between the second and eighth selections is large enough that a combination of the No. 40 and the No. 64 picks (in addition to No. 8) wouldn’t be enough to convince San Francisco to swap choices. Instead, the Panthers would probably have to give up a 2018 first-rounder in order to complete the trade.
A Thomas acquisition, specifically, would be the latest signal that Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman values the defensive line above all else, as Carolina has already spent early picks on Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short, and Vernon Butler, and has re-signed Mario Addison, Charles Johnson, and Wes Horton this offseason. Thomas for his part, ranks as the fourth overall player on Todd McShay of ESPN.com‘s big board.
Fournette, meanwhile, is considered the top running back of the 2017 class, and Panthers head coach Ron Rivera recently said no draft slot is “too high” to take a runner. Carolina inked incumbent back Jonathan Stewart to a one-year extension last week, but Gettleman said that deal won’t preclude the club from selecting a running back early in this year’s draft.
Poll: Should An NFL Team Sign Greg Hardy?
Greg Hardy‘s stock is lower than we ever could have expected. An Indoor Football League team flirted with the idea of signing the defensive end, but opted against it after he did not pass a fan referendum. No one wants to go near the former Pro Bowler because of his unsettling history with domestic violence and perceived lack of accountability for said violence. Even when the Cowboys gave him a second chance in 2015, he was moody, lazy, and late to practice. It’s easy to understand why the NFL wants nothing to do with him and one can even understand the IFL’s hesitation in getting involved with him. 
Still, when he’s on the field, Hardy is a game-changing talent. Between 2011 and 2013, the former sixth-round pick averaged 56 tackles and 10 sacks per season season. Even in a down year with Dallas in 2015, he ranked as the league’s 28th-best edge defender out of 110 qualified players, according to Pro Football Focus. At his worst, Hardy is a starting caliber defensive end and he won’t turn 29 until this summer.
Today, we borrow a page from the Salt Lake Screaming Eagles’ book and ask this of PFR readers: Would you want your favorite team to sign Hardy? Vote below and, if you want, explain your choice in the comments.
PFR Originals: 3/19/17 – 3/26/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- More than 40 restricted free agents were offered tenders earlier this month, and rival clubs now have until April 21 to sign those RFAs to offer sheets. Center Ryan Groy already inked an offer sheet that was subsequently matched by the Bills, while the Saints are trying to land Patriots RFA Malcolm Butler.
- The Spring League will feature some notable names such as Greg Hardy, Ben Tate, and Kellen Winslow when it kicks off next month, and Pro Football Rumors reported that an additional 30 players are scheduled to join the four-team league before its inaugural campaign.
- Prior to the Jets signing Josh McCown, Sam Robinson asked PFR readers to rank their favorites for the New York starting quarterback job in 2017. At last check, Jay Cutler held the plurality of votes over McCown, Bryce Petty, and Trevor Siemian, but now that he’s officially under contract, McCown sill likely be under center come Week 1.
- Zach Links answered questions from readers in our latest PFR Live Chat.
Updates On 2017’s Restricted Free Agents
The deadline for NFL restricted free agents to sign offer sheets with rival clubs is April 21, so RFAs have just under a month to discuss deals with other teams. So far, only one RFA — interior offensive lineman Ryan Groy — has inked an offer sheet, but the Bills matched the terms of the pact, meaning he’ll head back to Buffalo.
Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler, tendered at the first-round level, is reportedly negotiating a contract with the Saints, although most observers don’t expect New Orleans to sacrifice the No. 11 overall pick in order to sign Butler, with a trade involving a later selection viewed as far more likely. Elsewhere, Browns running back Isaiah Crowell is also drawing interest, although clubs would need to give up a second-round pick in order to sign him.
In total, more than 40 restricted free agents have been tendered this offseason. Let’s take a look at where things stand with those RFAs:
Signed to offer sheet:
- Ryan Groy, OL: Signed two-year, $5MM offer sheet with Rams. Matched by Bills.
First-round tender ($3.91MM):
- Malcolm Butler, CB (Patriots)
Second-round tender ($2.746MM):
- Trey Burton, TE (Eagles)
- Isaiah Crowell, RB (Browns)
- Todd Davis, LB (Broncos)
- Taylor Gabriel, WR (Falcons)
- Dontrelle Inman, WR (Chargers)
- Wesley Johnson, C (Jets)
- Brandon McManus, K (Broncos)
- Andrew Norwell, G (Panthers)
- Chris Thompson, RB (Redskins)
- Marcus Williams, CB (Jets)
Original round / right of first refusal tender ($1.797MM):
- Denico Autry, DE (Raiders)
- Marcus Burley, CB (Browns)
- Michael Campanaro, WR (Ravens)
- Ross Cockrell, CB (Steelers)
- Will Compton, LB (Redskins)
- Dominique Easley, DT (Rams)
- Cameron Fleming, T (Patriots)
- Garry Gilliam, T (Seahawks)
- Mike Gillislee, RB (Bills)
- Ryan Griffin, QB (Buccaneers)
- Chris Hubbard, T (Steelers)
- James Hurst, T (Ravens)
- Ryan Jensen, OL (Ravens)
- Cornelius Lucas, T (Lions)
- Cairo Santos, K (Chiefs)
- Jacquies Smith, DE (Buccaneers)
- Michael Thomas, S (Dolphins)
- Korey Toomer, LB (Chargers)
- Terrance West, RB (Ravens)
- Ethan Westbrooks, DE (Rams)
- Damien Williams, RB (Dolphins)
- Albert Wilson, WR (Chiefs)
- Kerry Wynn, DE (Giants)
Tendered, then extended:
- Kiko Alonso, LB (Dolphins): Tendered at first-round level before signing three-year deal.
- T.J. Johnson, OL (Bengals): Tendered at original round level before signing two-year deal
- Daniel Sorensen, S (Chiefs): Tendered at second-round level before signing four-year deal.
- Adam Thielen, WR (Vikings): Tendered at second-round level before signing three-year deal
Tendered, then withdrawn:
- Marqueston Huff, S (Ravens)
- Jumal Rolle, CB (Ravens)
PFR Live Chat With Zach Links
Kellen Winslow, Ben Tate Join Spring League
The Spring League kicks off in April and it will feature some notable names looking to resurrect their football careers. Defensive end Greg Hardy, tight end Kellen Winslow Jr., cornerback Brandon Browner, and running back Ben Tate are among the players who have been confirmed as participants, according to a press release. 
Winslow has not played in an NFL game since the 2013 season and we haven’t heard much from him since he worked out for the Packers last August. Tate, a former second-round pick, showed lots of promise in Houston but could not capitalize on a starting opportunity with the Browns in 2014. Hardy and Browner first committed to the league in early March.
The Spring League consists of four teams comprised of veteran free agents. The league will conduct practices and play six games from April 5 through April 26. Players who are currently on NFL rosters will not be eligible to participate.
The league has secured five quarterbacks thus far, including Chiefs 2011 fifth-round pick Ricky Stanzi and NFL practice squad journeyman McLeod Bethel-Thompson. At wide receiver, there’s former Ram Brandon Gibson, Jets 2014 fourth-round pick Jalen Saunders, and one-time Bills WR2 David Nelson. Former Jets defensive back Ellis Lankster and Texans 2013 third-round defensive tackle Sam Montgomery will also be suiting up for The Spring League next month.
The full list of players can be found below. In addition to those listed here, Pro Football Rumors has learned that another 30 players are expected to join prior to the start of training camp.
Quarterbacks
- Hutson Mason
- Ricky Stanzi
- McLeod Bethel-Thompson
- Zach Kline
- Jeremy Cannon
Running backs
- Zachery Bauman
- Kelsey Young
- Josh Robinson
- Ben Tate
- Noel Devine
- Adam Cox (FB)
Wide receivers
- Jalen Saunders
- David Nelson
- Kenzel Doe
- Brandon Gibson
- Daje’ Johnson
- Gavin Lutman
- Tyler McDonald
- J.D. Woods
- Sed Cunningham
- Lawrence Smith
- Terrance Lewis
- Rashon Ceaser
- Kendrick Wiggins