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Notable 2023 Pro Bowl Incentives

December 21st, 2022 at 9:22pm CST by Ben Levine

The NFL announced their 2023 Pro Bowl rosters this evening. Besides the ability to list the accolade on their career resume (plus the monetary bonus that comes from participating in and winning the game), many players had a financial incentive for wanting a Pro Bowl nod. We’ve collected some of the notable Pro Bowl contract incentives below, most via ESPN’s Field Yates on Twitter (unless noted).

Geno Smith‘s contract bonus came via a specific incentive that required not only Pro Bowl recognition but 20 touchdown passes, according to Yates (on Twitter). Smith hit that TD mark back in Week 13. The impending free agent is set to cash in following a breakout campaign during his age-32 season.

Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard has a more complex bonus worked into his contract. According to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry (on Twitter), Howard is one step closer to earning a $1MM bonus thanks to his Pro Bowl nod, but he’ll also need Miami to improve in either wins, points allowed, TDs allowed, total defense, interceptions, average net yards allowed per rushing play, or turnover margin.

Speaking of the Dolphins, the organization saved a chunk of future money since one of their players didn’t make the Pro Bowl roster. As Daniel Oyefusi of the Miami Herald tweets, Tua Tagovailoa‘s fifth-year option would have increased from $22MM to $28MM if he earned a Pro Bowl nod.

Poll: Where Will Tom Brady Play In 2023?

December 21st, 2022 at 5:10pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of this season’s most disappointing teams, the Buccaneers still have a chance to host a playoff game. But their Tom Brady partnership may be nearing an end. The all-time great is viewed as more likely than not to be elsewhere in 2023.

This would open the door to either an unusual free agency or a second retirement. Winding down his age-45 season, Brady will likely not be sought after on the level he was in 2020. His career-low QBR (since the stat’s 2006 introduction, at least), lowest yards per attempt figure since 2002 (6.3) and age will undoubtedly give teams pause. But if the 15-time Pro Bowler wants to keep pushing the quarterback age boundary — a recently discussed scenario — there stands to be a market.

It still makes sense to include the 49ers here. They passed on a true pursuit in 2020, when Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off a season in which he piloted the team to Super Bowl LIV, but Brady was loosely linked to seeking a move to his native Bay Area during his mini-retirement this offseason. The Bucs shut down the prospect of trading Brady’s rights anywhere. San Francisco has an again-injured Garoppolo tied to a restructured deal that prevents a franchise tag — a similar arrangement to Brady, who also cannot be tagged thanks to his 2022 restructure — and Trey Lance will enter 2023 having only played one full season in his five post-high school years. The 49ers boast a rare skill-position trio that includes three All-Pros, and their situation could open the door to Lance spending a year learning behind arguably the greatest to ever do it.

Josh McDaniels looks like he will make it to a second Raiders season, even though his first has not gone as hoped. McDaniels taking over as Patriots OC led to Brady morphing from a promising young quarterback to a superstar, and he was Brady’s OC for 11 years. The Raiders have a narrow window to trade Derek Carr, who will see $40.5MM guaranteed on Day 3 of the 2023 league year. A Carr-Davante Adams breakup might not go over well among the longtime friends, but McDaniels and fellow ex-Patriots staffer Dave Ziegler are calling the shots. The Raiders pursued Brady in 2020, and he famously had a spirited reaction to the then-Jon Gruden-led team backing off.

Tua Tagovailoa has a rather vocal cast of supporters, and the Dolphins did just pay a stiff penalty for attempting to bring Brady and Sean Payton to town. Payton seems out of the question now, with Mike McDaniel faring well in his first year, and Tagovailoa still sits second in QBR. The Dolphins have one of the great speed-receiver duos in NFL history, and vice chairman Bruce Beal is on the TB12 board. Though, Beal’s central role in the tampering scandal is believed to have affected his standing with the team. Would Stephen Ross try to land one of the assets that ultimately cost a first-round pick?

While it would look quite strange to see Brady with the Jets, they have both young weaponry and a vastly improved defense. That combination wooed Brady to Tampa. Timeline-wise, the Jets mirror the 49ers at the QB position. They roster the passer taken one spot ahead of Lance (Zach Wilson), though the Jets have more intel on their top-three QB pick than the Niners do theirs. Mike White is a free agent at season’s end, and the team is already being connected to veteran options — Garoppolo and Carr among them. Brady probably should be at least mentioned here.

Brady and Mike Vrabel played together for nine seasons, and the Titans were part of the free agency derby two years ago. They bowed out before it ultimately came down to a Bucs-or-Chargers call, and Ryan Tannehill has one season remaining on the extension the Titans gave him shortly after their Brady pursuit ended. The Titans cannot match the above-referenced teams for weaponry, however.

Bill Belichick did not exactly equip Mac Jones for a second-year leap, naming a career defensive coach (Matt Patricia) as de facto OC. Jones has regressed in Year 2, and there was a brief QB controversy with fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe. Uncertainty about the 2021 first-rounder’s long-term standing has entered the equation. If LeBron James could return to Cleveland, Brady rejoining Belichick and Robert Kraft for a farewell season should at least be floated. Brady and Kraft remain close, as evidenced by the Bucs QB traveling to the Patriots owner’s wedding during a Bucs road trip earlier this season. But the Patriots would need to get to work on receiving help. They almost certainly would not be the favorites if Brady decided to play a 24th season.

Reports of friction between Brady and Bruce Arians and Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have emerged over the past two seasons. Arians’ exit has undoubtedly affected this Bucs iteration, which has dealt with issues along its offensive line throughout the year as well. But the Bucs have fallen from the second-ranked scoring offense in 2021 — a season in which Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yards and 43 TDs — to 28th. The Bucs’ chances at winning a terrible NFC South aside, they may soon face the prospect of the Brady bill coming due. The Bucs not re-signing Brady before his contract expires in March would mean a $35.1MM dead-money hit due to the void years on his deal.

Brady is the only 45-year-old starting QB in NFL history, and retirement was believed to be the direction he would go at this season’s outset. As he plays out a down season, there will be more calls for a true retirement this time. A 10-year deal to be FOX’s lead analyst awaits.

As this offseason showed, teams are more willing to follow through with big QB swings. Complex QB offseasons have been the 2020s norm. More teams could potentially enter the mix, if they are convinced Brady’s struggles this year can be attributed more to his circumstances and less on a decline. Unless Brady calls it quits immediately after this season, the topic of his 2023 employer will gain steam. How will it end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this oft-discussed player in the comments section.

Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order

December 21st, 2022 at 10:18am CST by Sam Robinson

Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.

At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.

The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:

  1. Houston Texans: 1-12-1
  2. Chicago Bears: 3-11
  3. Detroit Lions (via Rams)
  4. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
  5. Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
  6. Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
  7. Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
  8. Carolina Panthers: 5-9
  9. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
  10. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
  11. Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
  12. Houston Texans (via Browns)
  13. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
  14. Green Bay Packers: 6-8
  15. Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
  16. New England Patriots: 7-7
  17. New York Jets: 7-7
  18. Detroit Lions: 7-7
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
  20. Tennessee Titans: 7-7
  21. Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
  22. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
  23. New York Giants: 8-5-1
  24. Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
  25. Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
  26. Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
  27. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
  28. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
  29. Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
  30. Buffalo Bills: 11-3
  31. Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1

Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.

Free Agent Stock Watch: David Montgomery

December 18th, 2022 at 6:49pm CST by Ely Allen

Bears running back David Montgomery will soon experience the challenges of a free agent running back in today’s NFL. A third-round draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Montgomery is currently in a contract year for a team that may not have reason to commit to him long-term. The final few games of the season could determine how the next stage of Montgomery’s career plays out.

Montgomery entered this season as the Bears’ No. 1 running back with backup Khalil Herbert providing the team with a strong secondary option. Montgomery had produced two strong seasons to kick off his career. As a rookie starting eight games, Montgomery racked up 889 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, adding 185 yards and a touchdown through the air as a receiving back. In his sophomore season, Montgomery showed a ton of promise, rushing for 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns and catching 54 passes for 438 yards and two touchdowns.

Last year, Chicago drafted Herbert in the sixth-round to supplement their rushing attack. Montgomery’s production slipped a bit as Herbert shared some of the offense, but he still produced 849 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns and showed he was the top receiving back with 301 yards on 42 catches. Herbert got his opportunities, though, and contributed 433 rushing yards and two touchdowns as a rookie.

This year the story has changed a little bit. Despite the fact that, coming into today’s game, Montgomery had started all but one game and appeared in two more games than Herbert, who had missed the team’s last three games with a hip injury, Montgomery trailed Herbert by two rushing yards. Montgomery plays about 67% of the Bears’ offensive snaps on average, while Herbert averages around 37%. Still, until today’s loss against the Eagles, the backup running back, Herbert, was outgaining the starting running back, Montgomery, with an average rushing yards per game of 64.3 to 53.4. Montgomery has maintained his role as the team’s top receiving back this season.

After sitting out of his fourth straight game today, Herbert is set to return next week to help Chicago in its last three games of the regular season. Montgomery will have a bit of an added challenge in the final few games of the season to show his worth to the Bears offense with his more-productive teammate back in the lineup. At 3-11, already eliminated from postseason contention, Montgomery will only have the final three games of the regular season to make his case.

If Montgomery hits free agency, he will join a stacked free agent class of running backs. After his fifth-year option was declined, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs will be a free agent this offseason. Barring any new extensions before the end of the season, Giants running back Saquon Barkley, Eagles running back Miles Sanders, and Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will all join Montgomery and Jacobs on the free agent market. Additionally, key contributors in Browns running back Kareem Hunt, Lions running back Jamaal Williams, Bills running back Devin Singletary, and Patriots running back Damien Harris will all hit free agency, as well. Even a score of reliable backups will be available in Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison, Cincinnati’s Samaje Perine, New York’s James Robinson, Miami’s Raheem Mostert, and Carolina’s D’Onta Foreman.

Needless to say, Montgomery will have a ton of competition in the free agent market. Regardless of the competition, what would a deal with Montgomery look like? Realistically, these days, for a running back that isn’t a super star, a three-year deal is standard. Star backs are set to earn around $14MM to $16MM per year, perhaps more if a suitor wants to set the market high for a free agent target. Strong starters will earn around $10MM to $13MM and second-tier backs will be in the range of about $6MM to $8MM.

Statistically compared to recent contracts, Montgomery matches up closest with a player like Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette. Fournette recently signed a three-year, $21MM deal after a contract year that could look vaguely similar to what Montgomery is projected to do this year. There are two factors in Montgomery’s favor, though. Montgomery doesn’t have the significant injury history that Fournette does, and Montgomery has been far more consistent with his production year in, year out. This could point to either a three-year deal with a slightly larger average annual value or a similar annual amount with another year tacked on. If Montgomery were in a vacuum, he would likely demand something like a three-year, $24MM contract or a four-year, $28MM deal.

Unfortunately for Montgomery, he is not in a vacuum. With the excessive amount of competition he will face in the free agent market, Montgomery’s value may be diluted. It will be hard to convince a team to shell out big money for Montgomery if they can just sign a lesser deal to one of many options. This may lead Montgomery to seek a team-friendly deal in order to stay in Chicago. With the existing connection and chemistry, Montgomery may be able to get more value out of his current team than he would testing the markets.

Taking all of this into account, Montgomery still will likely earn a three-year contract, possibly even four- with his superior durability. In a diluted market or in a team friendly deal, I could see Montgomery signing with an average annual value of $6MM or $7MM. It would make sense to see Montgomery end up with a three-year, $19.5MM or four-year, $24MM deal this offseason. Whether he wants to stand pat in Chicago or test the free agent waters, Montgomery will have three more games to show what he’s worth.

Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order

December 8th, 2022 at 2:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

The NFL now has its first teams eliminated from playoff contention. The Texans and Bears, as they essentially have been doing throughout this season, are playing for next year. Other eliminations will soon follow, as the league’s playoff picture heats up.

Through that lens, the 2023 draft order will become an increasingly more pertinent topic. The 2023 draft will present an interesting subplot near its outset. Traded picks are set to produce early selections for the Seahawks, Lions and Eagles. Each of those picks currently land in the top five, as the teams on the other end of those trades — the Broncos, Rams and Saints — have disappointed, spectacularly so in Los Angeles and Denver’s cases.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order would look entering Week 14:

  1. Houston Texans: 1-10-1
  2. Chicago Bears: 3-9
  3. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
  4. Detroit Lions (via Rams)
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
  6. Carolina Panthers: 4-8
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-8
  8. Arizona Cardinals: 4-8
  9. Indianapolis Colts: 4-8-1
  10. Atlanta Falcons: 5-8
  11. Green Bay Packers: 5-8
  12. Las Vegas Raiders: 5-7
  13. Houston Texans (via Browns)
  14. Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-7
  15. Detroit Lions: 5-7
  16. Los Angeles Chargers: 6-6
  17. New England Patriots: 6-6
  18. Washington Commanders: 7-5-1
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6*
  20. Seattle Seahawks: 7-5*
  21. Tennessee Titans: 7-5*
  22. New York Jets: 7-5*
  23. New York Giants: 7-4-1*
  24. Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)*
  25. Baltimore Ravens: 8-4*
  26. Cincinnati Bengals: 8-4*
  27. Dallas Cowboys: 9-3*
  28. Kansas City Chiefs: 9-3*
  29. Minnesota Vikings: 10-2*
  30. Buffalo Bills: 9-3*
  31. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-1*

* = Denotes playoff team

The 2023 first round will resemble 2008 and 2016, when the Patriots were docked their Round 1 pick for their respective “gate” scandals. This year’s Dolphins saga never developed “gate” status, but the team lost a 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-rounder due to the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering case. Thus, a 31-pick first round will commence.

While the Broncos, Rams and Browns lost their first-round picks due to trades for quarterbacks, the Saints passed theirs to the Eagles in this year’s pre-draft trade that allowed New Orleans a path toward moving up for Chris Olave. The No. 16 pick which was initially transferred from the Colts to the Eagles in 2021’s Carson Wentz trade was then moved to the Saints, netting Philadelphia a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 second.

Poll: Who Will Be Jets’ Starting QB In 2023?

December 1st, 2022 at 3:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

Last week’s Jets quarterback change may not be a long-term move, per Robert Saleh, but Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com notes the expectation is Mike White will keep his new gig against the Vikings and Bills over the next two weeks. White faring reasonably well against those upper-echelon teams could keep Zach Wilson out of the picture for a while.

The Jets have assembled a quality defense quicker than most expected. After ranking last in both total defense and scoring last season, the Jets are a top-five team in both categories in Saleh’s second season. Their defense sits fourth in DVOA, creating legitimate playoff aspirations for the first time since 2015. The Jets have a chance to snap the NFL’s longest playoff drought (11 seasons), leading Saleh to yank Wilson. That move is atypical for a player with Wilson’s draft pedigree and injects uncertainty into the Jets’ quarterback plans beyond 2022.

No quarterback selected in the top five has been benched for performance reasons before the end of his second season since the Bengals sat down 1999 No. 3 overall pick Akili Smith midway through the 2000 campaign. Wilson being shut down represents an obvious red flag about his future. Will the Jets be able to pivot back to last year’s No. 2 overall pick?

QBR places Wilson in 25th, actually two spots ahead of Aaron Rodgers, after the BYU product finished 30th in this metric as a rookie. Passer rating is far less kind; no starter checks in behind Wilson’s 72.6 mark there. Joe Flacco remains the Jets’ touchdown pass leader, with five, despite having exited after three starts to clear another path for Wilson. The Jets used a top-three pick on a quarterback twice in a four-year span, but while Sam Darnold was not holding a well-built defense back, Wilson was. Rumblings of teammates’ waning confidence in the fast-rising prospect surfacing this past offseason certainly open the door to the Jets needing to consider other options for 2023.

White torched a battered Bears secondary, doing so more than a year after he posted the first Jets’ 400-yard passing performance since Vinny Testaverde in 2000. The former Cowboys fifth-round pick has been with the Jets since 2019, initially landing a practice squad gig, and has enjoyed spurts of popularity over the past two seasons. The Jets demoted Flacco for the ex-Day 3 draftee earlier this season. White’s next two performances will help illustrate if the Jets can legitimately consider him for their 2023 starting gig. White, 27, will need to be re-signed next year. His putting together more quality starts will complicate that process for the Jets.

Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur‘s San Francisco ties create a natural path for Jimmy Garoppolo, whom the 49ers cannot retain via the franchise tag due to the sides’ August restructure. Then committed to Wilson, the Jets were not closely linked to Garoppolo during this year’s long-running (and ultimately fruitless) trade sweepstakes, but this could easily become a much-rumored landing spot for the ex-Patriots second-rounder. Will the 49ers, however, be so quick to move on and give the keys back to the largely untested Trey Lance?

A veteran deal would mean cutting into the advantage Wilson’s rookie contract creates, but if Wilson cannot do enough to stay on the field, the Jets need to regroup to capitalize on the defense they have built. The Broncos took this route in 2018, which would have been No. 26 overall pick Paxton Lynch‘s third season. Denver waived the first-round bust months after signing Case Keenum.

The Raiders have not lived up to expectations in Josh McDaniels‘ first season, and the second-chance HC — who is likely to return for another season — has a slim window to unload Derek Carr‘s three-year, $121.4MM contract. Three days after Super Bowl LVII, Carr is owed $40.5MM — his 2023 salary and $7.5MM of his 2024 base — creating an avenue for a trade. The Jets would need to act swiftly, and it would wall off a Garoppolo path a month before it could open. But Carr could be available ahead of his age-32 season, should McDaniels want a fresh start.

On the other end of the timing spectrum, Rodgers could conceivably be available next summer. While Rodgers trade speculation has ultimately provided endless content and no action, the Packers structured his record-setting $50.3MM-per-year contract to include a 2023 option bonus ($58.3MM) that can be paid out at any point from the start of the 2023 league year to the day before next season. It would cost the Packers only $15.8MM in dead money, per OverTheCap, to trade the contract after June 1. The Jets would be making a familiar move, trading for a future Hall of Fame Packers QB in his late 30s, but this scenario will undoubtedly be mentioned. Rodgers, who backtracked on his trade demand in 2021 and passed on leaving Green Bay this year, does not have a no-trade clause.

For the first time since 2016, they are not poised to have a top-12 pick. What other options would be available for Gang Green? The Seahawks are aiming to re-sign ex-Jet Geno Smith, while Daniel Jones hopping New York teams seems unlikely as well. Gardner Minshew and brief Jet Teddy Bridgewater are also slated to hit the market. Tom Brady, as it should be at least noted, is also due for free agency. If the Lions land their QB prospect in the draft, Jared Goff stands to be available. As this year’s quarterback carousel showed, more options could be on the table.

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this unusual situation in the comments section.

This Date In Transactions History: Raiders Sign TE Darren Waller Off Ravens Practice Squad

November 26th, 2022 at 9:48am CST by Ben Levine

Thanks to hindsight, we’ll occasionally find that some of the NFL’s best transactions initially went under the radar. That was the case on this date in 2018, when the Raiders signed a little-known tight end/wide receiver off the Ravens’ practice squad. Fast forward to today, and that tight end is one of the highest-paid players at his position.

On November 26, 2018, the Raiders added tight end Darren Waller off the Ravens’ practice squad.

The 2015 sixth-round pick didn’t make a whole lot of noise during his first three-plus seasons in the NFL. Baltimore initially had Waller playing as a wide receiver, and the Georgia Tech product had 12 receptions through his first two years in the league. After being slapped with a four-game suspension in 2016, Waller was hit with a full-season ban in 2017 for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

That suspension proved to be the nail in the coffin for the wideout/tight end in Baltimore. After sitting out the 2017 campaign, he was cut at the end of the 2018 preseason. He later caught on with Baltimore’s practice squad, which where he spent the first chunk of the season. With rookies Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews and veteran Maxx Williams firmly above Waller on the depth chart, it didn’t seem like the now-pass-catching TE had much of a future in Baltimore.

Then, on November 26, the Raiders came calling. The Raiders didn’t necessarily need a TE but believed in Waller’s pass-catching ability and immediately gave him a spot on the active roster. The tight end has six catches in four games while playing behind Pro Bowler Jared Cook.

The organization’s gamble worked out. Waller exploded in 2019 with Cook out of the picture, finishing the campaign with 90 receptions for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns. He followed that up with an even better season in 2020, as Waller earned his first Pro Bowl nod after finishing with 107 catches for 1,196 yards and nine scores. 2021 was a bit of a disappointment for the tight end; he was limited to only 11 games while hauling in 55 catches for 665 yards.

Still, the Raiders were clearly convinced that Waller’s 2019/2020 performances were sustainable, and they inked him to a three-year, $51MM extension this past offseason, making him the highest-paid tight end in the NFL in terms of average annual value. The 30-year-old is currently on injured reserve, and in five games this year, he’s collected only 16 catches. Considering the mounting absences and declining production, there have been some whispers that the Raiders are growing frustrated with the star.

Still, even if the Raiders grow to regret the extension they gave to Waller, there’s no denying the brilliance of the move they made on this date four years ago today.

Poll: Who Will Sign Odell Beckham Jr.?

November 10th, 2022 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

In what will be a key point not only on Odell Beckham Jr.‘s rehab timeline but perhaps in this year’s Super Bowl chase as well, the standout wide receiver is expected to be fully cleared for football work soon. Around nine months after suffering his second ACL tear, Beckham will be ready to practice for his new team. Who will that team be?

A free agent of this caliber is rarely available at this point in the season. Whichever team signs Beckham will see its skill-position corps receive a stretch-run jolt. However, injury concerns and Beckham’s desire for a multiyear contract complicate this unique chase. Beckham’s Browns stay also showed how adding him can backfire in a poor fit, injecting some risk into his 2022 equation. That said, teams pursuing him will be doing so based off his quick-impact Rams stay. The Rams needed OBJ to reach Super Bowl LVI. Despite the steady run of injuries that date back to his Giants days, that will be what drives a signing.

Rams connections overshadowed every other team’s Beckham ties for most of the offseason. Everyone from Les Snead to Sean McVay to Kevin Demoff expressed optimism Beckham would return to Los Angeles. With the Rams 3-5 and ranking 31st offensively, they do not appear the favorites any longer. The Rams ($4.2MM in cap space) have received little from their skill positions beyond Cooper Kupp; Beckham would boost the sinking contender’s cause. This franchise has also made a habit of landing big fish.

If he is eyeing a multiyear commitment, going back to an offense he knows well would make sense. Then again, Beckham expressed disappointment in the Rams’ previous offer. Although Sean McVay said last month the team had not made its best proposal yet, will such an offer come given the defending Super Bowl champions’ current state?

The Cowboys ($6.9MM in cap space) may have taken over as the OBJ favorites. Dallas cornerstones like Micah Parsons and Ezekiel Elliott are recruiting him. More importantly, Jerry Jones appears to be as well. In discussing OBJ’s market with NFL personnel, Pro Football Focus’ Doug Kyed came away with the Cowboys as the frontrunners here.

Beckham, 30, would slot in alongside CeeDee Lamb as the Cowboys’ top weapons. Dallas’ auxiliary troops have not shown too much this season. Of course, Dak Prescott‘s injury contributed to the limited production from Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup. And the Cowboys just signed a player coming off a December ACL tear (Gallup). While they appear ready to gamble on Beckham, that partnership will mean Lamb’s complementary pieces will each be fresh off ACL rehab. But the Cowboys may have their best Super Bowl opportunity since 2016, when they claimed the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The team may be on its way to the No. 5 seed this year, but a dominant pass rush has changed its equation compared to recent years.

The team viewed as the second-likeliest to add Beckham, per Kyed, the Bills are not as well-versed in attracting free agents. But Josh Allen‘s ascent has changed the franchise’s trajectory. Von Miller making the atypical decision to choose Buffalo over L.A. could bring Beckham to follow suit. Miller has been banging this drum for months. Earlier this season, the Bills were not viewed as a key player in this market. With Jamison Crowder (fractured ankle) out of the picture and the Bills encountering more defensive injuries, has that changed?

Beckham is believed to prefer a warm-weather city, per Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telgram, who adds the eight-year veteran would change his mind for “the right offer” (Twitter link). The Bills rarely have a market advantage over their competition, so needing to navigate that battle is not exactly new.

The three-time Pro Bowler also mentioned the Packers and a Giants reunion as possibilities. Neither of these would check the warm-weather box, but the Packers were in on Beckham in 2021 and have been mentioned as a suitor intermittently for the past several months. But Green Bay has dropped to 3-6. The NFL’s smallest-market franchise is also now going year to year with Aaron Rodgers. That status affected Davante Adams‘ interest in staying with the Packers. Green Bay needs Beckham more than Dallas, Buffalo or L.A., with Adams’ departure crushing the team’s receiving corps. Considering the Packers’ modern history with big-ticket free agents, Rodgers’ post-2022 plans, and the team’s 2022 performance, this might be a tough sell.

Giants GM Joe Schoen said Beckham would be considered, but he did not meet with the Jerry Reese-era draftee when he visited following Sterling Shepard‘s injury. Like just about every team Beckham is considering, the Giants looked into Brandin Cooks and Jerry Jeudy before the trade deadline. The Giants may need an impact receiver more than the Packers, who at least roster Allen Lazard. No Giants wideout has totaled more than 250 yards. Their leading receiver, Darius Slayton, spent the offseason in Brian Daboll‘s doghouse.

Big Blue came into this season on a rebuilding track. The team was not viewed as likely to consider trading even a Day 2 pick for a wideout, and it traded a talented but injury-prone receiver (Kadarius Toney). This is not the regime that traded Beckham to Cleveland, but would Schoen be willing to sign the injury-prone vet beyond 2022?

The Vikings and Chiefs were also mentioned as Beckham suitors, but each made moves ahead of the deadline. Each team gave up Day 2 capital — for T.J. Hockenson and Toney, respectively — for weaponry already. Kansas City looked into Cooks as well and was in the OBJ mix last year. Given the Chiefs’ arms race with the Bills, they probably cannot be fully ruled out.

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this rare in-season market in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Win NFC West?

November 5th, 2022 at 4:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Housing the defending Super Bowl champions and the conference’s runner-up, this year’s NFC West was set to feature another chapter in the reinvigorated Rams-49ers rivalry. But both would-be contenders have offered inconsistency that has further muddled the NFC.

As the Sean McVay–Kyle Shanahan series has seen injuries and roster deficiencies cloud its sixth season, the Seahawks have gone from a team projected to be close to a top-five 2023 draft choice to one with legitimate aspirations at a home playoff game. With the Cardinals also within two games of first place — ahead of a key Hawks-Cards Week 9 tilt — this division still features many questions at the midseason point.

Winners of this division three times during McVay’s first five seasons, the Rams have been unable to generate much offense involving anyone beyond Cooper Kupp. After Andrew Whitworth retired, Los Angeles re-signed his backup — Joe Noteboom — to a three-year, $40MM deal and brought back center Brian Allen. Both Noteboom (out for the season) and Allen (five missed games) have seen injuries define their 2022 slates. The team let three-year guard starter Austin Corbett walk in free agency (Panthers), and the Rams’ guard spots have endured a litany of setbacks. Both Rams starting guards (David Edwards, Coleman Shelton) remain on IR. These issues have limited the Rams considerably. No McVay-led Rams offense has ranked outside the top 11; Los Angeles enters Week 9 with the league’s 30th-ranked offense.

While no problems have surfaced after Kupp’s extension agreement, Stafford, 34, has not started well since signing a four-year, $160MM deal. The 14th-year veteran battled an elbow issue throughout the offseason and is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt — down from 8.1 in 2021 — and enters Week 9 with seven touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Allen Robinson posting 22 catches for 254 yards in seven games has also been an issue, with the Rams having signed him to a three-year, $46.5MM deal that included $30MM guaranteed. Football Outsiders gives the Rams just a 21.6% playoff shot. No defending champion has missed out since the 2016 Broncos.

San Francisco making the call to bring back Jimmy Garoppolo became vital after Trey Lance‘s Week 2 injury. Garoppolo inconsistency remains, but that should not surprise. The 49ers traded two future first-rounders for Lance because of their incumbent starter’s low ceiling. Of course, the 49ers are 2-for-2 in NFC title game berths with Garoppolo at the controls. But this team has battled major injury problems as well, seeing key contributors on each of their three defensive levels miss time or land on IR. That said, the 49ers still rank first defensively. Following an October swoon, the unit should be expected to stabilize once some of its pieces return.

The 49ers outflanking the Rams in the Christian McCaffrey sweepstakes made a major difference in the teams’ Week 8 rematch, and although McCaffrey’s injury history figures to inject nervousness into the equation for 49er fans the rest of the way, the prospect of CMC, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle teaming up probably gives San Francisco (67.3% playoff odds, per Football Outsiders) the highest ceiling in this division. But Seattle (71.9%) remains an obvious threat.

Moving on from two of the best players in team history — Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner — the Seahawks entered the season with long odds to win the division. They hold a one-game lead on the 49ers, thanks largely to the stunning re-emergence of Geno Smith. Off the starter radar since the I.K. Enemkpali punching incident back in 2015, Smith made one start between the 2015 and 2020 seasons. The Seahawks were able to re-sign him to a one-year, $3.5MM deal on April 14, indicating the tepid interest leaguewide. After beating out Drew Lock, Smith (13 TD passes, three INTs, NFL-best 72.7% completion rate — on 7.7 yards a pop) ranks fourth in QBR. While Smith’s offseason market and NFL past would provide signs this may not last, the Seahawks are reaping the benefits of their extended Smith partnership — one the team is interested in exploring beyond 2022.

Seattle’s rookie class — featuring left tackle Charles Cross (obtained with Denver’s No. 9 overall pick), second-rounder Ken Walker and fifth-round project Tariq Woolen — is also delivering immediate returns, doing so after recent draft-weekend struggles set back some of the late Wilson-era teams. The 49ers routed the Seahawks in Week 2, and Seattle has yet to face Los Angeles. But Pete Carroll‘s team is also showing more on defense compared to another woeful start; Clint Hurtt‘s unit has minimized the Cardinals, Chargers and Giants during a three-game win streak.

Extending their Steve Keim–Kliff Kingsbury–Kyler Murray troika this offseason — with Murray’s deal coming after a bizarre film study-based controversy — the Cardinals rank 30th in scoring. They have seen DeAndre Hopkins make a difference upon returning from his six-game PED ban, and Vance Joseph‘s defense — despite a breakup with Chandler Jones after five years — has fared better since Patrick Mahomes torched that group in Week 1. But injuries and continued offensive inconsistency have hindered Arizona season.

Should the Cards (6.9% postseason odds) not be able to upend the Seahawks on Sunday, their road back to the playoffs will be difficult. A last-place finish would certainly invite big-picture questions about the team’s path, with its power trio all under contract through 2027.

Will the Seahawks hang on? Or will one of the 2021 playoff teams surpass them with a better second half? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in on the state of this division in the comments section.

Poll: Who Fared Best At Trade Deadline?

November 2nd, 2022 at 10:14pm CST by Sam Robinson

The NFL trade deadline has trended upward in recent years, and Tuesday resembled — to some degree, at least — the frenzy the NBA or MLB deadlines bring. In the days leading up to Tuesday’s record-setting deadline sequence — a 10-trade day — other teams improved their situations as well.

Although the Broncos received the only first-round pick exchanged during this year’s in-season trade cycle, the 49ers came away with the splashiest addition. San Francisco showed off its Christian McCaffrey move against their rivals and second-place CMC finishers Sunday, with the versatile back joining Walter Payton and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only backs to complete the rush-catch-throw touchdown triple.

On the other end of that deal, the Panthers collected four draft picks for McCaffrey and two from the Cardinals for Robbie Anderson. Carolina now has two additional Day 2 choices from the McCaffrey swap, though the retooling team is believed to have passed on a Rams offer of two first-round picks for edge rusher Brian Burns. Was that the right call? Because the Rams could not acquire McCaffrey or Burns, they ended up as odd bystanders during an action-packed deadline.

The Dolphins sent the 49ers a fifth-rounder for Jeff Wilson, reuniting him with ex-San Francisco OC Mike McDaniel, but Bradley Chubb was Miami’s deadline prize. Seven months after they sent a first-rounder and change to the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins became the first team since the 2019 Chiefs (Frank Clark) to send over a Round 1 pick for an edge defender. Chubb (5.5 sacks) will step in to take over as Miami’s pass-rushing anchor, while the Broncos obtained more than they did for Von Miller‘s one-time sidekick than they did for the future Hall of Famer. Denver, which collected first- and fourth-rounders and Chase Edmonds in this blockbuster, now has a 2023 first-round choice after previously being without first- or second-rounders next year due to the Russell Wilson trade.

The Bears vacillated between buyers and sellers over the past several days, unloading Ryan Pace-era defensive investments Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith but adding Chase Claypool. Chicago picked up second- and fifth-round picks from Baltimore for Smith but sent its own second to Pittsburgh for Claypool, beating out Green Bay’s offer of a Round 2 choice for the 238-pound wideout. The Bears, who still have a 2023 sixth-rounder left over from the Khalil Mack trade, will have three additional draft choices because of their activity this week.

Pittsburgh did well to obtain a second for Claypool, who turned out to carry considerable value on the market. Known aficionados of Day 2 wideouts, the Steelers can replenish their receiver cadre — or add in other areas — with two second-rounders next year.

Although the Browns nabbed Deion Jones in October for a low cost, the Ravens’ Smith addition headlined the AFC North’s moves. The Ravens had attempted to keep C.J. Mosley in 2019 and made Bobby Wagner a big offer this year. GM Eric DeCosta has his acclaimed linebacker now. Though, the Ravens could be faced with an interesting offseason predicament. They have now acquired a contract-year standout ahead of a franchise tag window in which Lamar Jackson will be expected to receive the tag.

Chicago’s Claypool addition was not the most interesting NFC North move. Due to the scarcity of intra-division trades, the Lions’ decision to send T.J. Hockenson‘s through-2023 contract to the Vikings may linger for a while. While most teams prefer to send key players out of the conference, or at least out of their division, Detroit — which partnered with Minnesota on April’s Jameson Williams trade-up — collected second- and third-round picks for Hockenson and multiple Day 3 choices. The Vikings will return to Detroit with Hockenson Dec. 11 and should be expected to discuss an extension with the Pro Bowl pass catcher, who will team with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on the 6-1 squad.

The Bills made two pre-deadline moves, acquiring Nyheim Hines and reuniting with safety Dean Marlowe, while the Falcons added a player (cornerback Rashad Fenton) and dealt away two (Marlowe, Calvin Ridley). Jacksonville’s move qualifies as one of the most unique in recent NFL history, with Ridley suspended for gambling but also now part of a trade that could send a second-rounder to Atlanta if the once-promising receiver re-signs with the Jaguars. Ridley, who totaled 1,374 receiving yards in 2020, could be an interesting piece in the Jags’ Christian Kirk-led receiving corps. But he will apply for reinstatement next year having not played since midway through the 2021 season.

How much will the Chiefs pickup of injury-prone but electric wideout Kadarius Toney move the needle? Will the Jets’ James Robinson get do enough to fill the Breece Hall void? What team improved its situation the most during this year’s leadup to the deadline? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

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